Freeport LNG, a major liquefied natural gas exporter in Texas, rejected claims made on social media last Friday that its terminal would be closed for an extended period. 

US natural gas futures plunged as much as 7.4% on Friday as someone operating a Twitter account, identifying as a trader, said “cracked pipes” were discovered at the terminal, potentially delaying the company’s plans to restart exports by mid-month. The tweet was immediately deleted. 

“That speculation ratcheted up sharply Friday morning, when a Twitter account, @Lithium_Plays, made several unconfirmed statements regarding Freeport that were widely shared by other Twitter accounts, including a top, so-called energy Twitter influencer, an oil analyst for a major international bank whose account has 64,000 followers. But those tweets by @Lithium_Plays were then quickly deleted. 

Shortly thereafter, another account, @rr9b250, Tweeted a screenshot that seemed to look like it came directly from Freeport LNG, as it was on Freeport LNG letterhead with the same logo colors that one sees on Freeport’s official website. The statement ended with “Sincerely, Freeport LNG Public Relations.”” –Market Watch

After US NatGas futures settled, Freeport released a statement Friday evening, rejecting such claims calling it fake news:

“Any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG branded letterhead that may have been obtained or published, are reporting false information and are not legitimate, official public information from Freeport LNG,” the company said in a statement. 

On Monday morning, US natural gas futures jumped more than 5.5% to as high as $6.25/mmbtu on Freeport dismissing reopening claims. 

The Texas terminal has been shuttered since June due to an explosion, with a reopening timeframe around mid-November. Any such reopening would boost NatGas prices because the liquefaction plant serves as a major export facility, serving European customers. 

*Freeport LNG Had Said Aug. 3 It Hoped for Initial Restart of Texas Plant by Early October

*Freeport LNG Pushes Back Planned Initial Restart to ‘Early to Mid-November’ https://t.co/qqzJNaJUCD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 23, 2022

It seems like traders have an issue verifying market-sensitive information on social media… 

Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) warned against a 2024 run by former President Donald Trump, which she claimed to be “bad news for the country,” while saying President Joe Biden should run again.

When asked on ABC News’ “This Week” whether a Trump 2024 presidential bid would be “good news” for Democrats, the speaker rejected the idea. “It’s bad news for the country, let’s put it that way,” Pelosi told host George Stephanopoulos without pushing back on the assumption.

“This will be a very important election, very dispositive of the direction our country will go in,” Pelosi said, before giving her full support for Biden’s leadership and a possible reelection bid.

“[Biden] has just done so many things that are so great, we need a lot more shows to talk about it,” she said of Biden. “He’s put money in people’s pockets, vaccines in their arms, children back to school, people back to work, for starters. … He has been a great president, and he has a great record to run on.”

Although saying she was reluctant to discuss Trump’s plans, the speaker accused the former president of undermining the integrity of elections by making election fraud claims, and endorsing what she called “strange kinds of people” to run for office.

“He’s not been a force for good,” Pelosi said. “So I don’t think his candidacy is a force for good for our country. But that’s up to the Republicans to decide who they’ll choose.”

“Understand this, we have very vast differences. Republicans do not support science,” she continued. “They disregard what we’re saying about climate. They don’t support governance, so they don’t want to honor what science tells us in terms of the planet, in terms of health care and the rest. So we have some very big differences. The main event of it all is the presidential.”

Control of House in Balance

Pelosi during her Sunday appearance declined to comment on whether to run for House leadership until the election results are final. Control of the House is still hanging in the balance as neither party has yet reached the 218-seat majority in the 435-member chamber.

As of Sunday, Republicans had 212 seats compared to 204 for the Democrats, with 19 races still to be called by The Associated Press.

Trump has been hinting for months about a 2024 White House run, revealing during a GOP campaign event in Ohio on Nov. 7, or election eve, that he will make a “big announcement” from Mar-a-Lago this coming Tuesday.

One of Trump’s advisers said the 45th president will “of course” announce that he is running for president despite calls from some Republicans to hold off. “It’s going to be a very professional, very buttoned-up announcement,” Jason Miller told Steve Bannon on Friday.

The announcement would end speculation over Trump’s potential run in 2024, which was largely stirred up in the wake of the November midterms. Some betting markets now give Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, not Trump, the edge to win the White House in 2024, after the Florida governor won overwhelmingly across his state last week.

Biden, on the other hand, said last Wednesday that he’ll need to discuss among family members before making a judgment on whether he will seek reelection in 2024, noting that an official call can be expected “early next year.”

The high-stakes G20 Bali meeting between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi has concluded after three hours on Monday, having begun at 4:41am ET/5:41pm local time. Two cabinet-level officials were included seated on Biden’s side –  Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, with the former official having previously called China the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order.” Also at the table was national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

In opening remarks going into the meeting President Xi Jinping had said, “Currently the China-US relationship is in such a situation that we all care a lot about it, because this is not the fundamental interest of our two countries and peoples, and it is not what the international community expects (from) us.”

“As leaders of the two major countries we need to chart the right course for the US-China relationship,” Xi added. “In this time and age great changes are unfolding in ways like never before, humanity is confronted with unprecedented challenges, the world has come to a crossroads.” 

“Where to go from here is a question that is not only on our minds, but also on the minds of all countries.” the Chinese leader stressed. 

The White House has signaled there are no plans to make fundamental concessions to Xi, nor are there any expected major breakthroughs, also as the war on Ukraine overshadows the Group of 20 summit. Here’s how the meeting started as the two leaders entered the room: 

“Good to see you,” Biden said to Xi before they joined US and Chinese officials. The two sides sat at long conference tables with a display of flowers between them.

“We share a responsibility, in my view, to show China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from coming anywhere near conflict, and find ways to work better together,” Biden said to kick off the talks.

As for Xi, he agreed on the “need to find the right direction” and “elevate the relationship.” Among the chief foreign policy issues discussed were Ukraine, Taiwan, and North Korea. All eyes have been on China’s continued resistance to Western pressure on Ukraine, given Beijing has never once condemned the invasion, while at the same time has called for negotiations and the avoidance of escalation.

Hear what Biden and Xi said to each other in first meeting as heads of state. https://t.co/731iGGOvSx pic.twitter.com/weHKmzWEdd

— CNN (@CNN) November 14, 2022

On trade and the economy, CNN reported, “Speaking with reporters in Bali, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the meeting was intended to stabilize the relationship and expressed hopes that it would lay the groundwork for bilateral economic engagement.”

China’s Foreign Ministry immediately following the meeting described the lengthy meeting as including a “candid and in-depth exchange of views.”

The White House readout issued within an hour of the meeting concluding said that Biden stressed readiness to “compete vigorously with the PRC, including by investing in sources of strength at home and aligning efforts with allies and partners around the world,” however reiterated that this “competition should not veer into conflict and underscored that the United States and China must manage the competition responsibly and maintain open lines of communication.”

And more, the per the White House:

President Biden underscored that the United States and China must work together to address transnational challenges – such as climate change, global macroeconomic stability including debt relief, health security, and global food security – because that is what the international community expects. The two leaders agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts on these and other issues. They welcomed ongoing efforts to address specific issues in U.S.-China bilateral relations, and encouraged further progress in these existing mechanisms, including through joint working groups. They also noted the importance of ties between the people of the United States and the PRC.

On China’s human rights record and the Taiwan issue, President Biden said the following:

President Biden raised concerns about PRC practices in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, and human rights more broadly. On Taiwan, he laid out in detail that our one China policy has not changed, the United States opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side, and the world has an interest in the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He raised U.S. objections to the PRC’s coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan, which undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, and jeopardize global prosperity. President Biden also raised ongoing concerns about China’s non-market economic practices, which harm American workers and families, and workers and families around the world.

Concerning the most anticipated hot button issue, Russia’s ongoing military offensive in Ukraine:

President Biden raised Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine and Russia’s irresponsible threats of nuclear use. President Biden and President Xi reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. President Biden also raised concerns about the DPRK’s provocative behavior, noted all members of the international community have an interest in encouraging the DPRK to act responsibly, and underscored the United States’ ironclad commitment to defending our Indo-Pacific Allies.

Thus the two sides reiterated their agreement that the Ukraine crisis should never reach the point of spiraling toward nuclear rhetoric or war.

Xi tells Biden that China and the United States should take history as a mirror – state media https://t.co/H8U5z20Moo pic.twitter.com/6NSSjXmRhP

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 14, 2022

From the Chinese side, the first statement at the conclusion of the meeting issued via Xinhua said “China and the United States should take history as a mirror and let it guide the future.”

* * *

Below are headlines previewing the issues of contention and that were under discussion via Newsquawk: 

• US President Biden says US and China can manage differences and stop competition from turning into conflict, expects US and China to play a role in address climate and food shortages.
• Chinese President Xi says has stayed in touch with US President Biden via video but it is no replacement for in-person meetings, both nations need to chart their course and find the right direction for the relationship and elevate it. Prepared to have a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the US-China relationship.
• The White House said further engagement after the Biden-Xi meeting could include face-to-face meetings, according to Reuters.
• Stated prior to the meeting US President Biden will make it clear in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that the US does not seek competition or conflict, and the meeting could last “a couple of hours”, according to Reuters citing the White House National Security Adviser Sullivan.
• Stated prior to the meeting US President Biden underscored that freedom of navigation and overflight must be respected in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, via Reuters.
• US President Biden will raise the issue of North Korea with Chinese President Xi at the G20 Summit, according to the White House. Biden will tell Xi that if North Korea continues, there will be more enhanced US military presence in the region. Blackrock (BLK) has shelved its China bond ETF amid growing tensions between the US and China alongside a reversal in the China-US yield differential, according to FT.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen will ask for clarity on China’s plans to ease COVID restrictions alongside issues in the Chinese property market, in a meeting with the PBoC Governor, according to Treasury officials cited by Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will likely discuss export controls with Chinese officials, according to Bloomberg.

The White House has confirmed that Biden and Xi agreed Secretary of State Blinken will later visit China as a follow-up to Monday’s G20 summit discussions.

Elon Musk has been slammed since taking over Twitter, telling an audience at Indonesia’s B20 conference on Monday that he’s working 24/7, and has “too much” on his plate.

“If I were you, I would jump on a plane and fly to Bali and hide a little or relax. Why don’t you do that?” asked moderator Anindya Bakrie, the CEO and President Director of Bakrie & Brothers, a manufacturing and infrastructure corporation.

B20 is the “official G20 dialogue forum with the global business community.”

“That sounds fantastic,” Musk replied, “but my workload has recently increased quite a lot.”

“I have too much work on my plate, that is for sure.”

More via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Musk’s comments came shortly after he declined an offer by the former CEO of T-Mobile, John Legere, to “run” Twitter.

Legere took to the social media platform on Nov. 13 where he suggested he should run the site so that Musk can “stop managing daily business, and ‘content moderation’ and then support product/technology.”

“I’m expensive but so is what you paid for Twitter (p.s. please be leadership example of how to tweet)” Legere wrote.

Musk responded with a simple “No” before later adding that “Twitter at its core is a software & servers company” and the “technology needs to evolve rapidly, which requires a technologist.”

Billionaire Musk, who also runs spaceflight company SpaceX and neurotechnology startup Neuralink, finalized his $44 billion deal to purchase Twitter in October.

Twitter Workers File Lawsuits After Mass Layoffs

Twitter announced in a company email on Nov. 3 that it would start laying off staff members from its global workforce of 7,500 employees in an “effort to place Twitter on a healthy path” as the platform is losing over $4 million a day.

Musk has defended the move, and said on Twitter that, “Everyone [who] exited was offered 3 months of severance, which is 50 percent more than legally required.”

However, the company has since been sued by multiple staff members over an alleged violation of federal law, with workers claiming they were not given enough notice regarding the layoffs and failed to receive their severance benefits when Musk laid off Twitter’s staff.

Meanwhile, Musk has killed the company’s free lunches – saying in a tweet that it was costing the company $400 per meal ($20-$25 per person) because ‘almost no one’ was in the office.

Especially bizarre given that almost no one came to the office. Estimated cost per lunch served in past 12 months is >$400.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2022

He was accused of lying by former Twitter employee Tracy Hawkins, to which he hit back:

False. Twitter spends $13M/year on food service for SF HQ. Badge in records show peak occupancy was 25%, average occupancy below 10%.

There are more people preparing breakfast than eating breakfast.

They don’t even bother serving dinner, because there is no one in the building.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2022

The rally in US index futures paused after Wall Street stocks posted their best week in several months, following comments from a Federal Reserve official that the fight against inflation has further to run. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 0.3% at 7:30 a.m. ET…

… while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that policymakers had “a ways to go” before ending interest-rate hikes. His comments also lifted 10-year Treasury yields by 9 basis points.

Waller: The FOMC statement in November was designed to signal a potential step down to 50 basis points.

“We knew the markets were going to jump for joy.”

So the Fed used Powell’s press conference to “drive the point home” that it’s the ultimate level for rates that matters.

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 13, 2022

In premarket trading, beside the surge of Chinese stocks listed in the US following China’s announcement of a “rescue package”, Advanced Micro Devices shares also rose after brokers UBS and Baird upgraded the chipmaker to buy and outperform, respectively. Biogen (BIIB US) shares rise as much as 5% in premarket trading, after Roche’s Alzheimer’s drug, a potential competitor to Biogen’s, failed a pair of large studies.

On Monday, the dollar traded near its best levels of the day, pressuring all of its Group-of-10 counterparts. Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by 10-year rates that climbed for the first time in a week.  Oil fell with gold, while Bitcoin gains exceeded 2% after earlier sliding more than 3%; the drop in crypto was halted after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said the world’s largest digital-asset exchange plans to set up an industry recovery fund.

Last week, a big miss across the board in CPI data fueled bets that the US central bank would temper its hawkish narrative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week 2.1% short of recording a 20% gain off its Sept. 30 low — the technical definition of a bull market. The S&P 500 chalked up its biggest weekly rise since June, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.9% for its best two-day gain since 2008.

“The burst of euphoria which erupted over US markets and spread more widely at the end of last week is ebbing away after fresh warnings that the fight against inflation is still a hard slog yet to be won,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst Hargreaves Lansdown.

That comes after a tumultuous weekend for rival FTX, which was once seen as among the best-run exchanges but has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Worrying details that have emerged include the fact that just before filing for bankruptcy, FTX Trading International held just $900 million in liquid assets against $9 billion of liabilities, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Chinese stocks listed in the US also were also higher, and were set to extend their rally to a third day, after Beijing issued a 16-point plan to boost the real-estate market on Friday, the strongest sign yet that President Xi Jinping is turning his attention toward shoring up the world’s second-largest economy. The move pushed Chinese stocks into a bull market, even as the Hang Seng China gauge holds on to a loss of more than 25% this year.

After a dismal earnings season, which saw mega-cap tech stocks underperform while earnings growth waned, some are skeptical about the earnings outlook. “Investor euphoria over the prospect of a ‘Fed pivot’ contrasts with the deteriorating profit margins and darkening business outlook expressed by many S&P 500 firms,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin said in a note.

In Europe, stocks are steady, holding on to early session gains as personal care, telecoms and media outperform while travel and real estate lag. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%; Roche dropped after the news on its much-awaited experimental Alzheimer’s drug. Here are the most notable market movers:

• Informa shares jump as much as 8.8%, the most in two years, after the company raised full-year revenue and operating-profit guidance, despite assuming zero revenue from live and on-demand events in China in November and December
• German pharmaceuticals giant Merck KGaA rises as much as 6.4% after Bank of America upgraded to buy from neutral, flagging Phase III data for multiple sclerosis drug Evobrutinib which it says could be a “game-changer” for the company’s “perceived lackluster pharma business.”
• Pepco Group soars as much as 19% in Warsaw after the discount retailer was added to MSCI’s global standard indexes in a semi-annual review published after markets closed on Nov. 10.
• Teleperformance rises as much as 5.6%, clawing back more ground following the slump it suffered last week sparked by a report involving its Content Moderation unit in Colombia.
• Rheinmetall climbs as much as 5.2%, touching the highest since Aug. 18, following the German defense company’s acquisition of Spanish ammunition maker Expal in a deal that Warburg says looks like a “good strategic fit.”
• Close Brothers falls as much as 6.5% as the UK financial services firm is cut to sell from hold at Investec, which says the shares now look “a little too expensive.”
• Tremor falls as much as 27%, the most since Aug. 16, after a “challenging 3Q market” led to reported revenue missing analyst estimates.
• Ferrexpo slumps as much as 9.7%, the most since Oct. 24, after Credit Suisse downgrades the stock to neutral from outperform, citing a deteriorating operating environment in Ukraine.
• Roche falls as much as 5.7%, the most since May, after the Swiss pharmaceutical company said its long-awaited Alzheimer’s treatment failed its phase 3 trial, with its research partner MorphoSys plunging as much as 33%, the most in two decades.

In Asia, Chinese stocks extended recent gains on hints of shifting Covid policy along with more support heading toward the property sector. US chipmakers could be in focus, with President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit.

Asian stocks were steady as weakness in markets such as Japan countered gains in China, where authorities issued a sweeping rescue package to bail out the property sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared an earlier gain of as much as 0.8% to trade flat. While gauges in China pared a bulk of their early gains, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed up nearly 2%, taking its surge this month to 21%.

Vietnam’s benchmark was the worst performer in the region, while Japanese shares also slipped. SoftBank Group’s plunge weighed the most on the regional benchmark. China’s property stocks surged as financial regulators issued a 16-point plan to boost the real estate market. Along with Friday’s easing of some Covid controls, the measures gave traders confidence that China is finally taking concrete steps to tackle the two biggest sore points for its economy and markets — Covid Zero and the property crisis. READ: Chinese Stocks Storm Into Bull Market on Covid, Property Shifts The MSCI Asia index is up about 11% so far in November, heading for its first monthly gain since July. It is still down more than 21% this year. Traders will be closely watching any further progress on China’s reopening and whether the downshift in US inflation paves the way for a moderation in future Fed interest rate hikes. “We see next year as a much better one for Asia/EM equities, following the longest bear market in history,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note. The softer-than-expected US inflation will allow the Fed to finish hiking in January, while growth in the region will likely pick up from the second quarter of 2023 helped by China’s reopening, they added

Japanese equities ended lower as investors worried over the strengthening yen and possible cryptocurrency contagion risk amid FTX’s deepening woes.  The two factors overpowered the initial optimism over China’s moves to support eventual reopening and beleaguered property sector. The Topix Index fell 1.1% to 1,956.90 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined by a similar magnitude to 27,963.47.  SoftBank Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline as it plunged 13%, the most since March 2020 after disappointing second quarter results. Out of 2,165 Topix members, 575 rose and 1,524 fell, while 66 were unchanged. “The Nikkei Stock Average last week rose sharply and recovered to the 28,000 yen level, and stocks are being sold off for profit-taking,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, strategist at Asset Management One. The strengthening of the yen is also playing into today’s move, he added. 

Key stocks gauges in India fell after benchmark Sensex surged to a record high on Friday, weighed by fast-moving consumer-goods companies while the country’s earnings season nears completion. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 61,624.15 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.1%. The 50-stock Nifty index is still less than 1% short of its record level seen in October last year.  Volatility in local stocks surged 3%, the most since Oct. 11, while the benchmark Sensex is trading at 14-day RSI of 66, close to levels that traders consider as overbought. Of 49 Nifty companies, which have so far reported earnings, 32 have reported profit in-line or above consensus estimates while 14 have missed. Oil & Natural Gas Corp will be releasing its number later today. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.3%. FMCG firms ITC and Hindustan Unilever were also among prominent decliners

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar resumed its ascent after crashing last week, rising 0.5% as the greenback gained versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. CAD and EUR are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY underperforms, breaking above 140.40/USD.

• The euro fell to trade around $1.03 after earlier rising to $1.0367, the highest level since Aug. 10. Yields on Bunds and Italian bonds fell. ECB’s Guindos, Centeno and Nagel speak later. The new Italian government will likely miss its fiscal targets amid headwinds to growth, Moody’s said in a statement last week; Fitch reviews Italy, Moody’s reviews Portugal and S&P reviews Ireland on Friday
• The pound pulled back from a 2 1/2-month high versus the greenback. The gilt curve bull-flattened ahead of the UK government’s Autumn Statement due later in the week The Office for Budget Responsibility expects government borrowing to rise to nearly £100b in 2026-27, Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing an “ally” of UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt
• Australian and New Zealand sovereign bonds fall across the curve on the hawkish Fed comments. The Aussie and kiwi both weakened on the back of broad-based US dollar strength
• The yen was the worst G-10 performer and fell below 140 per dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it’s “very good” that rapid weakening of the yen has halted for now after one-sided moves

In rates, the Treasury yield curve steepened after the hawkish Fed comments and Friday’s moves in Bunds. The 10-year yield rose 6 bps after earlier adding 9bps to touch 3.90%, erasing a portion of Thursday’s historic gains sparked by softer-than-expected October CPI data. Treasury futures had erased a portion of the gains on Friday when the cash bond market was closed for US Veterans Day. Yields are higher by 5bp-8bp Monday, little changed from where they began the Asia session, after Fed Governor Waller, speaking during US evening hours on Nov. 13, said the central bank still has “a ways to go” before it stops raising interest rates, and that the market got “way out in front” after the inflation data. The 5-year TSY, higher by 7bp at 4%, is back in line with its 50-DMA after falling below it Thursday for the first time since Aug. 19. Interest-rate strategists at Goldman Sachs were among those saying the market reaction to October CPI was excessive; the yield declines are “likely overdone,” as risks remain skewed toward an extended Fed tightening cycle, they wrote. Gilts lead latest push, 10-year yields outperform bunds by about a basis point; USTs 10-year yields lag, rising 7bps as they catch up after being closed on Friday.

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall below $88 as initial upside on the USD’s pullback dissipated with the DXY now back above 107.00. Benchmarks are near session lows on the above action and also amid a further strengthening of COVID measures within Beijing after the city reports the highest number of cases in a year. Janet Yellen said India can buy Russian oil at any price if it does not use Western insurance or maritime services, according to a Reuters interview, and said the existence of a G7 oil price cap will give India and other developing countries leverage in bargaining with Russia on oil. Yellen said they are happy for India, China, and Africa to get a “bargain” on Russian oil, inside or outside the price cap. An Indian government official said they do not believe India will follow the price cap mechanism and have communicated that to the countries. OPEC+ “may discuss adjustments to members’ oil production baselines in early December as many of them struggle to meet their agreed quotas”, according to Energy Intel. “Delegates said it is too early to predict what might happen in Vienna in terms of any potential changes to the alliance’s production policy or baseline adjustments. “

There is nothing on today’s economic calendar; we get earnings from Tyson Foods; Fed’s Williams and Brainard speak, ECB’s Panetta, Centeno and Guindos speak

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 3,981.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 433.04
• MXAP down 0.1% to 151.66
• MXAPJ up 0.7% to 490.04
• Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,963.47
• Topix down 1.1% to 1,956.90
• Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 17,619.71
• Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,083.40
• Sensex down 0.1% to 61,714.09
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,146.35
• Kospi down 0.3% to 2,474.65
• German 10Y yield down 0.9% to 2.14%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0323
• Brent Futures down 0.6% to $95.38/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,759.48
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.51% to 106.84

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Further interest rate hikes are expected to ensure inflation’s return to our medium-term target of 2%, ECB’s governing council member Constantinos Herodotou says in an interview with Greece’s Naftemporiki website
• Germany’s biggest labor union is locked in talks with employers over a pay deal for about 3.9 million workers, in one of the most significant domestic showdowns of Europe’s energy crisis so far
• The ECB will probably receive several hundreds of billions of euros in early repayments of long-term loans this year after officials toughened the terms of the program to aid their fight against inflation
• China issued sweeping directives to rescue its property sector, adding to a major recalibration of its pandemic response in the strongest signs yet that President Xi Jinping is turning his attention toward shoring up the world’s second-largest economy
• The EU is “ready to go” with an effort to impose a price cap on Russian oil, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of its executive arm, said Mondayd

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks eventually traded mostly lower despite the positive lead from Wall Street on Friday.     ASX 200 was contained on either side of the flat mark with losses in Industrials, Telecoms and Healthcare offsetting the gains from the Metals, Mining, and Materials sectors. Nikkei 225 saw its losses lead by Softbank shares tumbling over 12% following its earnings on Friday, which saw the Co’s Vision Fund post a quarterly net loss. KOSPI eventually faded earlier gains following the trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea over the weekend, in which White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US, Japan, and South Korea have a coordinated response if North Korea carries out its 7th nuclear test. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded in the green for most of the session, with Hong Kong outperforming following source reports that the PBoC and China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator told financial institutions to extend support for property firms, with the Hang Seng Property index surging over 15% in early trade, but traders remain cognizant of the Biden-Xi meeting poised to take place on Monday at 09:30GMT/04:30EST.

Top Asian News

• eijing authorities stated on Monday to further strengthen COVID prevention and control measures and reminded residents not to go out unless necessary. The measures are seen as a response to the mounting pressure of soaring cases in the city, according to Global Times.
• China reported 1,794 new confirmed COVID cases in the Mainland on Nov 13th (vs 1,711 on Nov 12).
• Beijing reported the highest number of local COVID cases in over a year, reporting 404 cases on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.
• The PBoC and China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator told financial institutions to extend support for property firms, according to Reuters sources. Bloomberg reported that China’s real estate rescue package consists of a 16-point playbook for finance officials across the country, according to sources.
• China’s Securities Journal noted that China is expected to inject liquidity via a new MFL (unverified).
• PBoC injected CNY 5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.00% for a CNY 3bln net drain.
• PBoC issues a notice to further support the extension of loan repayments for small firms.
• BoJ Governor Kuroda said the Japanese economy is picking up; now is the stage to continue monetary easing to support the economy, according to Reuters. Kuroda said they are closely watching the impact of raw material inflation and currency moves on firms and households. Kuroda said the BoJ and the government are closely monitoring the impact of FX, and market moves on the economy and prices; and said abnormally one-sided sharp JPY weakening appears to have paused, partly thanks to the government’s FX intervention.
• Earthquake shakes buildings in Tokyo, Japan, via Reuters; prelim. magnitude of 6.1 via NIED. Magnitude 5.6 earthquake near the S. Coast of Honshu, Japan, via EMSC

European bourses are posting mild gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, with participants awaiting the conclusion of the Biden-Xi meeting.
Sectors were predominantly in the green, though performance has turned more mixed as the session progresses.
Stateside, futures are pressured as the recent rally seemingly runs out of steam and also following Fed’s Waller pushing back on the post-CPI reaction, ES -0.4%.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Hunt said he will set out a long-term plan for energy, and said we do have to increase taxes and cut spending. He said he wants to make sure a recession is as short and shallow as possible if the UK falls into one. He added that he will be talking about constraints on the labour force in the budget plan, via Reuters.
• UK Chancellor Hunt said the OBR forecasts will likely present a similar picture to recent BoE forecasts of a recession. Hunt plans to commit around GBP 20bln to extend the energy price guarantee scheme by six months from April and is eyeing a multi-billion-pound package to shield pensioners and benefit claimants from the increases in power bills, according to The Times.
• UK Treasury discussing raising energy price cap from April; department considers making policy announcement in the autumn statement rather than waiting until spring, according to Guardian sources. It is understood that continuing some universal level of support, possibly in the form of a higher energy cap, is also on the table.
• Germany’s IG Metall union has called for further strike action on Monday. Strikes will take place at targeted locations in the states of Hesse, Thuringia and Rhineland-Palatinate, according to the union cited by Reuters.
• ECB’s Panetta says monetary policy needs to tighten so that inflation does not become entrenched, the consequences of possible errors may not be perceptible today, but they would become evident over time. It may then be too late to fully reverse them.

FX

• DXY spent much of the morning attempting to reclaim the 107.00 mark, with peers deriving modest upside as such though this was mixed with EUR and GBP a touch softer, for instance.
• However, the index has since surpassed the 107.00 handle and lifted to a 107.19 peak to the detriment of peers across the board, though EUR and GBP haven’t slipped much further and reside around 1.03 and 1.1750 respectively.
• Traditional havens CHF and JPY are the current laggards, with the JPY particularly impaired and USD/JPY above 140.50 as such and was perhaps spurred by Governor Kuroda reminding that they are to continue with monetary easing.
• Yuan drew much of the focus overnight after the PBoC set its strongest fix since late-September and amid two-way newsflow for the region regarding property support and COVID controls; CNY concluded the domestic session at 7.0378.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0899 vs exp. 7.0896 (prev. 7.1907); strongest fix since Sep 27th
• RBI Governor Das said India has a major challenge with regard to inflation. He added that the RBI’s FX interventions are impacted by day-to-day developments, and the objective is to prevent excessive volatility. Das added that the RBI’s reserves are very comfortable, via Reuters.

Fixed Income

• Core benchmarks were relatively rangebound in the European morning, with the benchmarks struggling to derive any lasting traction from brief forays some 30/40 ticks either side of the unchanged mark.
• However, a concerted bid has been seen most recently in EGBs and Gilts; perhaps spurred by ECB’s Panetta who placed emphasis on the risk of policy errors.
• Stateside, USTs are a touch softer and are playing catchup to the Veteran’s Day holiday on Friday and also conscious of remarks from Fed’s Waller who has pushed-back on the post-CPI pricing.
• As such, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks towards the mid-point of 111.27+ to 112.06+ parameters with yields elevated though the 10yr is sub-4.00% and significantly shy of last week’s 4.24% peak.

In commodities

• Crude benchmarks have been slipping throughout the European morning as initial upside on the USD’s pullback dissipated with the DXY now back above 107.00.
• Benchmarks are near session lows on the above action and also amid a further strengthening of COVID measures within Beijing after the city reports the highest number of cases in a year.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said India can buy Russian oil at any price if it does not use Western insurance or maritime services, according to a Reuters interview, and said the existence of a G7 oil price cap will give India and other developing countries leverage in bargaining with Russia on oil. Yellen said they are happy for India, China, and Africa to get a “bargain” on Russian oil, inside or outside the price cap. An Indian government official said they do not believe India will follow the price cap mechanism and have communicated that to the countries.
• OPEC+ “may discuss adjustments to members’ oil production baselines in early December as many of them struggle to meet their agreed quotas”, according to Energy Intel. “Delegates said it is too early to predict what might happen in Vienna in terms of any potential changes to the alliance’s production policy or baseline adjustments. “
• Iraq’s Prime Minister said Iraq is keen to commit to OPEC policies and decisions but the OPEC production quota should be reconsidered by OPEC members. Iraqi PM added that Iraq needs to raise its oil production to generate more revenues and is keen to maintain stable oil prices of “not above USD 100/bbl”. Iraq said it will have a discussion with OPEC members to increase its production quota, via Reuters.
• ExxonMobil (XOM) announced the first LNG cargo from the Coral South FLNG project in Mozambique, the floating production vessel is expected to produce up to 3.4mln metric tons of LNG per annum, via Reuters.
• JPMorgan expects Brent to re-test USD 100/bbl in Q4-2022 and average USD 98/bbl in 2023, via Reuters.
• Earthquake magnitude 6.4 hit around 20km North-west of Lebu, Chile, according to EMSC.
• Both precious and base metals have succumbed to the USD’s relative resurgence with additional headwinds from the mentioned COVID controls. Specifically, spot gold has slipped back towards the USD 1750/oz mark.

Crypto

• FTX was subject to a hack with “mysterious” outflows totalling over USD 600mln, according to CoinDesk. FTX said it has been hacked and instructed users not to install new updates and to delete all FTX apps.
• FTX CEO John Ray said unauthorised access to certain assets has occurred. FTX is in the process of removing trading and withdrawal function to a new cold wallet custodian, via Reuters.
• Hedge fund Galois Capital said that close to half of its capital is stuck on the FTX Exchange, according to FT.
• Hong Kong’s AAX Exchange is suspending withdrawals for up to 10 days, as the failure of FTX reverberates through crypto markets, according to CoinDesk.
• Crypto lender BlockFi has paused withdrawals and limited platform activity amid FTX collapse, according to Bloomberg
• Crypto Exchange Huobi says it will continue to take all appropriate steps to withdraw crypto assets from FTX as soon as possible; the incident does not currently affect normal business operations of the group, according to Reuters.
• Visa (V) has terminated its global debit card agreement with FTX, according to a Visa spokesperson via Reuters.
• Binance CEO, on crypto exchanges, said there are still quite a lot of players that cut corners, via Reuters. Subsequently, says they are forming an industry recovery fund, to assist projects which are otherwise strong but are in a liquidity crisis.

Geopolitics

• Ukrainian Foreign Minister said Russian counterpart Lavrov has not asked for a meeting, according to Reuters.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv’s forces have taken control of over 60 settlements in the Kherson region. He added that Ukrainian forces are holding firm as brutal battles take place every day in the Donetsk region, via Reuters.
• US President Biden and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov arrived in Indonesia for the G20 Summit, according to Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said some Russian sanctions could be extended beyond the end of the war in Ukraine, according to WSJ.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they will determine the price level for the Russian oil price cap in the coming weeks, via Reuters.

US-China latest

• US President Biden says US and China can manage differences and stop competition from turning into conflict, expects US and China to play a role in address climate and food shortages.
• Chinese President Xi says has stayed in touch with US President Biden via video but it is no replacement for in-person meetings, both nations need to chart their course and find the right direction for the relationship and elevate it. Prepared to have a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the US-China relationship.
• The White House said further engagement after the Biden-Xi meeting could include face-to-face meetings, according to Reuters. Stated prior to the meeting
• US President Biden will make it clear in the meeting with Chinese President Xi that the US does not seek competition or conflict, and the meeting could last “a couple of hours”, according to Reuters citing the White House National Security Adviser Sullivan. Stated prior to the meeting
• US President Biden underscored that freedom of navigation and overflight must be respected in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, via Reuters.
• US President Biden will raise the issue of North Korea with Chinese President Xi at the G20 Summit, according to the White House. Biden will tell Xi that if North Korea continues, there will be more enhanced US military presence in the region.
• Blackrock (BLK) has shelved its China bond ETF amid growing tensions between the US and China alongside a reversal in the China-US yield differential, according to FT.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen will ask for clarity on China’s plans to ease COVID restrictions alongside issues in the Chinese property market, in a meeting with the PBoC Governor, according to Treasury officials cited by Reuters.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will likely discuss export controls with Chinese officials, according to Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

• Nothing scheduled

Central Bank Speakers

• 11:30: Fed’s Brainard Discusses the Economic Outlook
• 18:30: Fed’s Williams Moderates Panel at the Economic Club of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s feels to me we’re in a race against time for markets and the global economy over the next 12 months. Can inflation slow quickly enough for central banks to be able to slow down their hiking cycles enough to avoid systemic accidents? Last week was a great mini case study of the race to come as the bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX battled it out with a big downward surprise in US inflation. Ultimately the latter won out handsomely, but you can’t help thinking that the rate hiking cycle has claimed another victim with regards to FTX even if other things might also be at play with this company. In a world of free liquidity seen over the prior decade, lots of money has flowed into things that on the surface make little sense but have been transformed into multi-billion or even multi-trillion industries.

Most people I speak to don’t think the current crypto implosion is systemic and this could very well be correct. However, what’s next to unwind/unravel in a hiking cycle that’s not over yet even with slower US inflation last week? The way I like to think about it is that it’s much easier for things not to be systemic when US payrolls are still averaging +289k as they have been over the last 3 months. They averaged +444k in H1. Fast forward 6-9 months when they’re likely to be negative and things that break in the financial system could easily turn more systemic.

In the near-term the technicals and fundamentals continue to be more supportive. Impressive levels of European gas storage due to the weather, very short positioning in US equities, mid-terms being out the way, positive seasonals, less event risk in the Russian/Ukraine war, and now softer US inflation than expected are all helping. However, it’s completely feasible to see a year-end rally and still think risk markets will ultimately be a lot lower in 12 months’ time. Indeed, this morning my new Credit Strategy team have just updated a tactical bullish piece (link here) we put out at the end of October (link to that piece here) suggesting that spreads have room to rally through year-end and early Q1’23, especially with investors bearishly positioned into a period of bullish seasonals. We prefer cash credit over synthetic with banks the favoured sector. Our bearish YE 2023 targets haven’t changed since early April but we’ll be updating this in our 2023 outlook next week.

The most interesting thing about Friday was that European yields, which rallied hard with the US on Thursday, reversed their entire gains on Friday with 10yr Bunds -15bps and then +15bps. The China 20-point Covid restriction easing plan released earlier that day seemed to help. As the US bond market was closed on Friday it’s only responded this morning and 2 and 10yr yields are both around 8bps higher, trading at 4.41% and 3.89%, respectively, as we go to press. Helping that move, this morning in Sydney, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that policy makers still had “a ways to go” before stopping interest-rate hikes despite inflation softening in October. He added that the Fed would like to see a similar run of soft CPI readings to take a foot off the brake. He also seemed worried that the market reaction last week was similar to that seen in July where financial conditions loosened more than the Fed wanted. We’ll see how the other Fed speakers react to last week’s CPI later this week.

Elsewhere in the overnight session, not content with a 20-point Covid plan, China also released a 16-point plan to support the fragile domestic property sector. This came public over the weekend. So it seems that the passing of the party congress has led to a loosening of both restrictions and policies. With the new composition of the ruling party it wasn’t clear that this was going to be the case, so this is welcome news for anything China growth related, though the news need to be factored in against the increasing number of Covid cases recorded across the country.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, but with China risk leading the way. The Hang Seng (+2.92%) is leading gains with mainland Chinese equities also rallying with the Shanghai Composite (+0.75%) and the CSI (+1.16%) both edging higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.82%) is trading in negative territory as heavyweight SoftBank plunged more than -10% after its Vision Fund posted further losses while failing to announce a widely expected share buyback. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (-0.02%) is struggling to find direction. Looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to a negative start today, with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.29%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.49%) edging lower. Crypto has remained under pressure as Bitcoin fell as low as $15,846, recording its lowest levels in around two years amid FTX’s deepening woes. It was over $20,000 early last week.

Looking forward and it’s not a blockbuster week for data but there are still some important potential highlights. The US consumer will be in focus, with retail sales (Wednesday) and major retailers’ earnings including Walmart and Home Depot (tomorrow) due amongst others. Other major US data releases will include housing market indicators and the PPI (tomorrow). In geopolitics, the G20 summit will run from Tuesday to Wednesday and the COP27 will end on Friday. The G20 will be watched closely for signs of how aligned the members are on the continued war in Ukraine and also for any headlines around Presidents Biden and President Xi’s side meeting.

China macro and micro will also be in focus with industrial production and retail sales data (both tomorrow), as well as earnings from major tech firms like Tencent and Alibaba. Japan’s GDP and inflation will also be due. In Europe, the UK will release inflation (Wednesday) and employment (tomorrow) data with the government’s autumn statement is taking place on Thursday. The latter is less important now that policy credibility has been restored but will still give us a lot of info about the direction for travel in UK policy.

In more detail on some of the main events now. The US PPI tomorrow deserves some decent attention as it will give some insight into the upcoming core PCE which clearly remains the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. October’s headline (+0.4% forecast vs. +0.4% previously) and core PPI (+0.3% vs. +0.3%) are expected to show similar gains to the prior month but the real focus will be on health care services series, which is a direct input into the core PCE deflator. This series has been very volatile of late but has shown signs of easing. So all eyes on this. Heath care was a huge downside surprise in last week’s CPI.

Speaking of inflation, housing data will also be in focus after this week’s CPI print showed some moderation in rental price pressures and also with mortgage rates having recently been at 22-year highs. Among indicators released will be housing starts and permits on Thursday and existing home sales on Friday.

In terms of corporate earnings, there won’t be many major American companies reporting aside from the aforementioned retailers with over 90% of the S&P 500 members having already released results. In tech, we will get NVIDIA and Cisco on Wednesday and Applied Materials and Palo Alto Networks on Thursday. Over in Europe, notable companies reporting include Vodafone and Infineon on Tuesday and Siemens on Thursday.

The day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual and as you’ll see it also includes numerous ECB and Fed speakers throughout the week, including President Lagarde (Wednesday and Friday).

Recapping last week now and it was yet another wild week that saw a US election, major battleground advances for Ukrainian forces, a major crypto blowup, and a below expectations CPI report that gave the market signs of a potential Fed pivot that it has been desperately hoping for. All in four days on a holiday shortened week for fixed income markets in the US.

Starting with bonds, Treasury yields rallied big this week following the below expectations October CPI report. That saw 10yr yields down -34.6bps and 2yr yields -32.6bps lower, the largest weekly decline in both tenors since the initial Covid onset in March 2020, as pricing for the December meeting finished the week just shy of 50bps at 49.8bps, while terminal pricing ended the week at 4.89% for next spring, its first close below 4.9% in two weeks.

10yr yields also fell in Europe, but lagged the US move, where bunds fell -13.5bps (+15.1bps Friday) and gilts were -17.9bps lower (+6.6bps Friday). European yields sold off Friday when Treasury trading was closed, following reports that China was easing more of their Covid restrictions and with University of Michigan inflation expectations over the next 5 years hitting their highest level in 5 months at 3%. The S&P 500 gained +5.90% (+0.92% Friday) while the Nasdaq +8.1% (1.88% Friday) outperformed with the index being comfortably lower for the week before Thursday’s CPI. European shares also climbed, with the STOXX +3.66% higher (+0.09% Friday) and the Dax up +5.68% (+0.56% Friday).

Finally, reports that FTX, the second-largest crypto exchange was going under, drove a route in crypto assets, that saw Bitcoin fall -20.72% over the week and -5.95% on Friday.

Sunday’s batch of Arizona votes brought good news for Republican gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake. 

When the numbers from various counties were all added up, Lake had trimmed Democrat Katie Hobbs’ lead by about 8,000 votes. With about 161,000 votes left to count, Hobbs is now up 26,011. In percentage terms, Hobbs leads 50.5% to 49.5% with 93% of the votes counted.  

About 58% of the remaining ballots are in Maricopa County. While Lake is gaining ground as Maricopa’s tallies increasingly represent votes from Republican-heavy Phoenix suburbs and exurbs, some observers say Sunday’s results make it less likely that Lake will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Lake won 54.6% of Sunday’s reported Maricopa votes, compared to 45.4% for Hobbs. “For [Monday’s] drop to be relevant, I was looking for at least a Lake 58/42 [split],” tweeted ABC15 political analyst Garrett Archer, a former elections analyst for the Arizona secretary of state.  

Lake’s hurdle for the remaining statewide ballots is high: She’ll need about 58.1% of them to pull off the buzzer-beater.  

No projections in AZGOV, but make no mistake: Lake didn’t get the tallies she wanted and probably needed out of Maricopa.
It will presumably close further, but Lake doesn’t have many batches left. Each time she falls short, her target in the outstanding vote gets higher.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 14, 2022

After Sunday’s results were posted, the Hobbs campaign issued a statement that exuded confidence while stopping just short of declaring victory: 

“With the latest tabulation results from Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties, Katie Hobbs is the unequivocal favorite to become the next Governor of Arizona. Katie has led since the first round of ballots were counted, and after tonight’s results, it’s clear that this won’t change.”  

Meanwhile, the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives continues its glacial crawl toward completion. On Sunday, Republicans picked up one seat, as the Associated Press called Oregon’s 5th Congressional District for Lori Chavez-DeRemer. 

According to the New York Times, the GOP has won 212 seats against 204 for the Democrats, putting the Republicans six seats away from the 218 needed to control the House. Of the 19 races that have yet to be called, Republicans are currently leading in 10. 

Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

The UK should house illegal immigrants in “simple, functional” spaces as opposed to luxury hotels in a bid to disincentivise “asylum shopping,” Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick has said.

Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Jenrick said the UK “has an obligation to provide sanctuary to some of the many who flee war and persecution,” but the country’s generosity is being “abused” by illegal immigrants “skipping the queue in small boat crossings.”

More than 40,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the English Channel to reach the UK this year.

‘Pull Factor’

Jenrick said a “chronic shortage of acceptable accommodation” for record numbers of illegal immigrants has forced the government to procure expensive and often unsuitable hotels, burdening the taxpayer with an “unacceptable” cost.

“Human decency has to be accompanied by hard-headed common sense: illegal immigrants are not entitled to luxury hotels,” he wrote.

The minister said that economic migrants have been engaged in “asylum shopping” in Europe and that the UK has become their “destination of choice.”

He stressed: “‘Hotel Britain’ must end and be replaced with simple, functional accommodation that does not create an additional pull factor.”

He said the government is “determined to make the UK a significantly less attractive destination for illegal immigration” by clamping down on the black economy, stepping up immigration enforcement, and working closely with the security services.

Declaring the UK will be “compassionate, but not naïve,” the minister warned of the need to ensure Britain’s modern slavery laws are not exploited by illegitimate claimants.

New Milestone

Government figures released on Nov. 13 show that more than 40,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the English Channel to the UK so far this year, setting a new milestone.

Some 972 people were detected in 22 boats on Nov. 12, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said, taking the provisional total for the year to 40,885.

A record 1,295 illegal immigrants crossed the Channel on Aug. 22, the highest figure for a single day since the current system of record-keeping began in 2018.

According to figures from the Home Office, the number of illegal crossings has soared in recent years, with 28,526 people detected in 2021, compared to 8,466 in 2020, 1,843 in 2019, and 299 in 2018.

In April, then-Home Secretary Priti Patel signed a deal with Rwanda that involved sending illegal immigrants who had crossed the channel to the African country.

The agreement was designed to be a deterrent to those making the journey by sea, but 35,617 people have arrived by boat since it was signed.

The legality of the policy has been contested in the courts, with ministers and campaigners awaiting a ruling from High Court judges on the case.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We recently discussed a troubling conviction in Great Britain of a man for his “toxic ideology.” Now Ireland appears ready to replicate that case a thousand fold. The proposed Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) Bill 2022 would criminalize the possession of material deemed hateful.

It is a full frontal assault on speech and associational rights. The law would allow for sweeping authoritarian measures in defining opposing viewpoints hateful. Ireland appears to be picking up the cudgel of speech criminalization from Britain, an abusive power once used against the Irish.

The law is a free speech nightmare.  Even before addressing the crime of possession of harmful material, the law would “provide for an offence of condoning, denying or grossly trivialising genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes against peace.” The crime of condoning, denying or grossly trivailising” criminal conduct would make most autocrats blush. The lack of any meaningful definition invites arbitrary enforcement. The law expressly states the intent to combat “forms and expressions of racism and xenophobia by means of criminal law.”

What is so striking about the law is how utterly unapologetic it is in the use of criminal law to curtail not just free speech but free thought. It allows for the prosecution of citizens for “preparing or possessing material likely to incite violence or hatred against persons on account of their protected characteristics.” That could sweep deeply into not just political but literary expression.

The interest of the Irish in assuming such authoritarian measures is chilling given their own history under British rule, including violent crackdowns on nonviolent protests like “Bloody Sunday.”  Free speech is now in a free fall in Great Britain and Ireland appears eager to follow suit.

The decline of free speech in the United Kingdom has long been a concern for free speech advocates  (here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). Once you start as a government to criminalize speech, you end up on a slippery slope of censorship. What constitutes hate speech or “malicious communications” remains a highly subjective matter and we have seen a steady expansion of prohibited terms and words and gestures. That now includes criminalizing “toxic ideologies.” 

Under this pernicious law, a judge can order the search of a home based solely on a police officer’s sworn statement that he or she has “reasonable” grounds to believe illegal material may be present in a person’s home.

Again, the embrace of such laws by the Irish is crushingly ironic. Frank Ryan, who fought against the treaty, spoke for many radicals in declaring “as long as we have fists and boots, there will be no free speech for traitors.” Those anti-Treaty forces rejected the views of free speech that long defined Western nations. Now, Ireland is declaring “no free speech for haters” and assumes the authority to define who are haters and who are not.

The Irish people struggled for generations for equality and freedom. To now pick up the mantle of suppressing viewpoints is to make of mockery of the long struggle.

France will welcome the Ocean Viking and its 234 illegal immigrants “on an exceptional basis,” President Macron’s Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin announced on Thursday, Nov. 10, after several days of wrangling with Italy.

Darmanin also said that a third of the passengers would be “relocated” in France after disembarking in the port of Toulon.

“Because of Italy’s stubborn refusal and lack of humanity,” France had to allow the ship to dock, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna noted.

The Ocean Viking flies a Norwegian flag but is chartered by the French NGO SOS Méditerranée, whose headquarters are in Marseille.

It had been waiting for 20 days for permission to dock in an Italian port, but the Meloni government refused.

The French interior minister has described this refusal as “incomprehensible” and “selfish.” On Nov. 11, France’s EU Affairs Minister Laurence Boone further said that “trust is broken” with Italy.

The French government has also called Italy’s stance “unacceptable behavior” and suggested, through its spokesman Olivier Véran, that this could in the future have an impact on NextGenerationEU funds paid to Italy. Olivier Véran said on the public radio France Info:

“There are clear European rules accepted by the Italians who are, in fact, the first beneficiaries of the European financial solidarity mechanism.”

A statement by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who claimed it had been the duty of Paris from the outset to accept the ship, was “in total contradiction with our exchanges,”  Colonna insisted.

“There will be consequences if Italy persists with this attitude,” she warned.

However, as the Italian newspaper Il Giornale pointed out on Nov. 9, Italy has taken charge of three of the four boats that requested to disembark illegal immigrants at the beginning of November.

Remix News’ Olivier Bault reports that the blackmail involving the Italian recovery plan was well understood on the Italian side, and all the more so that the very same funds continue to be used to blackmail Poland and Hungary, the only two EU countries that have still not received a single cent of NextGenerationEU money.

On Nov. 8, as the Ocean Viking had finally decided to head for the French coast, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the Italians appreciated “France’s decision to share the responsibility for the migratory emergency, which until now has rested on the shoulders of Italy and a few other Mediterranean states, by opening its ports to the Ocean Viking.”

In an interview with Corriere della sera, Italian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Edmondo Cirielli stressed that “France welcoming a ship every four to five years is nothing extraordinary, but it is still good news.”

However, France’s interior minister on Thursday announced retaliatory measures against Italy for not allowing the disembarkation of 234 illegal immigrants aboard the French NGO SOS Méditerranée’s ship: France is canceling the relocation agreement under which it was to take charge of some 3,000 asylum seekers from Italy by the summer of 2023, and it will strengthen controls at the Italian border. Worse still, the French government is asking its European partners to suspend relocations from Italy as well.

“France lectures us, but turns away 80 migrants a day in Ventimiglia,” ran the headline in Il Giornale on Thursday. From the beginning of January to the end of October this year, 85,041 immigrants landed in Italy according to official figures, compared with 53,246 in 2021 and 27,203 in 2020. The relocation mechanism in which France and Germany participate only provided for 10,000 relocations of asylum seekers among those who will have landed in Italy, Spain, and Greece for all of 2022.

And as Il Giornale pointed out in another article published on Nov. 11, while Italy has witnessed the landing of over 60,000 illegal immigrants over the course of the last five months, France has accepted the transfer from Italy of only 38 asylum seekers during that period.

“So the decision to break promises had already been made,” Il Giornale wrote.

“All that was missing was the excuse to make it official. And it is also clear that Paris’ retreat does not stem from our government’s choice to initiate a more assertive confrontation with the NGO ships.”

In addition to all this, it has to be said that the Ocean Viking’s free shuttle service for illegal immigrants making the trip from Libya to Italy is not only run by an NGO based in France but it is mostly funded by left-wing local governments in France, including the city of Paris. It is a large boat capable of taking aboard several hundred immigrants at a time (it had well over 500 on some occasions) and costing €14,000 per day to operate.

The French alternative media outlet La Lettre patriote has just published an internal document of SOS Méditerranée that can be seen here and which shows the subsidies they have received recently from French municipalities, departments, and regions.

“On its website, SOS Méditerranée lists a total of 83 partner local governments,” comments La Lettre patriote. “In addition to major cities such as Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Bordeaux, and Strasbourg, the NGO can count on significant financial support from nine departments, including Ille-et-Vilaine (€50,000 in 2020), Haute-Garonne (€100,000 in 2020), and Loire-Atlantique (€200,000 in 2020). On top of this, there are regional grants from Brittany (€75,000 in 2020), Burgundy (€50,000 in 2021), Centre-Val de Loire (€50,000 in 2021), and Occitania (€75,000 in 2020). Unsurprisingly, all these departments and regions are governed by left-wing majorities.”

To make matters worse, the French Alt-Right website notes, “in February 2017, SOS Mediterranée received the label of ‘great national cause‘ directly from the prime minister. This has enabled it to broadcast its communication campaigns free of charge on public radio stations and television channels.”

In January 2021, an appeal was launched by 28 French left-wing local authorities to provide moral and financial support to SOS Méditerranée and its 69-meter-long and 15-meter-wide Ocean Viking ship. Of course, these 28 local governments committed themselves to providing such support. The mayors of Paris (Anne Hidalgo), Lyon (Grégory Doucet), Marseille (Benoît Payan), Lille (Martine Aubry), Bordeaux (Pierre Hurmic), and Grenoble (Eric Piolle) were among the signatories.

“By accepting for the first time that a boat disembarks migrants in a French port, Emmanuel Macron is sending a dramatic signal of leniency,” Marine Le Pen tweeted on Nov. 10. “With this decision, he can no longer make anyone believe that he wants to put an end to massive and anarchic immigration.”

Back in 2018, French President Emmanuel Macron twice refused to allow the Aquarius to dock in Marseille with more than 600 migrants rescued in the Mediterranean. With the Ocean Viking, however, it would seem logical that France should take full responsibility for its passengers as it finances its operations.

But Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, unlike the other major French parties, does not condemn Italy’s attitude. Speaking on France Info on Nov. 10, the spokeswoman for her parliamentary group praised the firmness of Giorgia Meloni’s government and said that if NGO ships pick up people in distress near the Libyan coast, they must take them back to their port of departure. Otherwise, Laure Lavalette added, the nearest safe port is in Tunisia, not in Italy.

“Our firm policy on immigration is the only one that can prevent men and women from risking their lives to reach our continent. We must refuse to be accomplices to the smugglers and to allow the Ocean Viking to dock in France,” Marine Le Pen tweeted on Nov. 9.

As for Giorgia Meloni, she recalled on Nov. 8 that “in matters of security and the fight against illegal immigration, the Italians have expressed themselves at the ballot box by choosing our program and our vision. (…) Our goal is to defend the law, security, and every person’s dignity. To do this, we want to curb illegal immigration, prevent further deaths at sea, and combat human traffickers. The citizens have asked us to defend Italy’s borders, and this government will not betray its word.”

Two days earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán thanked his Italian counterpart in these terms: “Finally! We owe a big thank you to Giorgia Meloni and the new Italian government for protecting the borders of Europe. Grazie Giorgia!”

The standoff is causing major concerns in Brussels, with European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas saying on Saturday that the EU “cannot allow two member states [to be] fighting each other in public and creating yet another mega political crisis over migration.”