Mark Penn, the former chief White House pollster and strategic advisor to President Bill Clinton for six years, used a Wall Street Journal op-ed titled “The Socialist Threat Is Real“ to warn that far-left radicals are hijacking the Democratic Party.

The problem for Democrats is that years of letting socialists and Marxists into their DEI kingdom have only now produced dire consequences. Status quo Democrats are watching their power evaporate as Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates defeat mainstream Democrats in primaries across New York, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and other states.

Penn’s warning was blunt: “America will be in serious trouble if Democrats fail to defend their party.”

“This ‘revolution’ is driven not by the working class but by the urban professional class that is willing to support candidates who celebrate 9/11, cheer at the massacre of 1,000 Israeli and American kids, would defund the police, abolish prisons, end private property and open the borders,” Penn explained.

Penn and his fellow status quo party members are watching in real time as their party transforms almost overnight from one once built around labor, civil rights and working-class citizens into one increasingly defined by anti-American rhetoric, hostility toward capitalism, support for foreign adversaries, calls to abolish jails, race-based politics and, of course, utter disdain for the Constitution.

What DSA stands for:

Our latest profiling of the new Democratic Party appears to show how DSA-ers are far detached from traditional American values and openly hostile to the country’s founding institutions:

• Meet The New Democratic Party: Socialists Say The Quiet Part Out Loud, Want To “Destroy America From Within”

Meet the new Democratic Party:

Frank, Aaron, Hank and Sam are Communist insurgents, radicalized marxist revolutionaries hiding behind personal ideologies to justfy their 1A expressions of the right to promote the insurrection of the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America pic.twitter.com/XLzzjisOqd

— AnimalFarm1945 (Moshe) (@Farm1945A) July 6, 2026

Meet the unofficial DSA spokesman:

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

Penn’s op-ed then called for immediate investigations into the DSA to determine whether the socialists are “being funded by foreign governments and interests.”

He said, “Lawmakers, law-enforcement agencies and journalists should investigate the DSA to see if it is being funded by foreign governments and interests.”

It only appears as if Penn reads ZeroHedge:

• Is There A “Cuba Connection” Behind The Radicalization Of America’s Nonprofit Left

Or perhaps Penn sees the writing on the wall:

• Feds Nab Alleged Member Of “Sprawling” Cuban Communist Subversion Network Linked To Hasan Piker’s Havana Trip
• DOJ Grand Jury Probes Neville Roy Singham’s Marxist NGO Empire: Report
• “No Longer Tolerate Radical Marxists”: Rubio Sanctions Revolutionary Cuban Influence Network Tied To U.S. Left-Wing NGOs

Penn explains that if the DSA is not properly handled, then “New York and other cities will decay further.”

Penn’s call for investigations into the DSA, including whether the group is funded or supported by foreign governments or foreign interests, may not have come out of nowhere.

The broader concern is that federal officials are investigating whether elements of the far-left activist NGO sphere have been influenced by foreign-linked networks. Investigations are focused on China and Cuba.

Penn’s decision to write an op-ed attacking the socialists only highlights the growing alarm inside the Democratic Party.

The question now is whether traditional Democrats begin looking across the political aisle to counter the socialist wing before it gains even more ground in low-turnout primaries and deep-blue districts. A bipartisan anti-socialist push would have been unthinkable not long ago, but if the DSA keeps toppling incumbents and reshaping the party from within, that may be exactly where this fight is headed.

President Trump has been gearing up for the political fight against the radical left, in which he said on Truth Social last month: “The Communists are finally making their move. I’ve been waiting and preparing for this for a long time.”

A remarkable collection of Revolutionary War artifacts that lay hidden beneath the Savannah River for nearly 240 years is now on public display in Georgia’s oldest city as the nation marks America’s 250th anniversary, according to Fox News.

The Savannah History Museum officially unveiled 19 cannons recovered from the river as part of its new Loyalists & Liberty: Savannah in the American Revolution exhibit. Historians say the discovery represents the largest cache of 18th-century artillery ever recovered from a single Revolutionary War naval event.

Fox News wrote that the cannons were discovered unexpectedly in 2021 after crews with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers uncovered them while dredging the Savannah River to deepen the shipping channel for larger cargo vessels.

“When they were recovered, the cannons were heavily encrusted with oyster shells and marine growth after centuries underwater,” said Nora Fleming Lee, CEO of the Coastal Heritage Society. In addition to the artillery pieces, crews also found smaller artifacts, and several of the cannons still contained cannonballs and their original gunpowder charges.

Following their recovery, most of the cannons were transported to a preservation laboratory at Texas A&M University, where conservators spent several years removing salt from the iron through a specialized electrolysis process before stabilizing and protecting the metal for long-term display.

Seventeen of the cannons underwent full restoration, while two were intentionally left in their original condition so visitors can compare how they looked when first pulled from the river. All 19 are now permanently exhibited at the museum.

Researchers believe the weapons came from British ships that were deliberately scuttled in 1779 to create a blockade across the narrowest section of the Savannah River. The barrier was intended to prevent French naval forces from sailing upriver and helping American troops retake Savannah, which was then under British control.

The ships are believed to have been sunk only weeks before the Battle of Savannah, one of the deadliest engagements of the Revolutionary War, where more than 800 casualties were recorded in less than an hour. The battle took place on the same grounds where the Savannah History Museum stands today.

Museum officials say the exhibit goes beyond showcasing military artifacts. Through the stories of Indigenous people, enslaved and free Black residents, women, children and other overlooked figures, it explores Savannah’s role in the American Revolution from multiple perspectives, using the recovered cannons as a centerpiece to tell a broader and more inclusive story of the nation’s founding.

Authored by David DeMay via AmericanThinker.com,

Ask most Silicon Valley billionaires what they think about death, and you’ll get some version of a declaration of war. Peter Thiel has funded life-extension research for years and has spoken openly about wanting to “fight death.” Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, and a growing circle of biotech-backed investors have likewise poured billions into companies pursuing not merely longer life, but the possibility of radically slowing or even ending human aging.

Elon Musk – the wealthiest of them all and arguably the most publicly concerned with humanity’s long-term survival – has consistently argued almost the opposite.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in conversation with Larry Fink, Musk remarked, “There is some benefit to death.”

He warned that dramatically extending human lifespans could lead to “an ossification of society,” leaving institutions increasingly rigid and ideas “stultifying” as the same generation remained in power indefinitely.

His reasoning is straightforward. Most people form their core worldview relatively early in adulthood and rarely change it fundamentally. If those individuals never leave positions of influence, society risks locking one generation’s assumptions permanently into its political, economic, and cultural institutions. In Musk’s view, mortality is not merely a biological limitation; it is one of the mechanisms by which civilizations renew themselves.

What makes his position especially interesting is that it is not rooted in scientific pessimism. During the same discussion, Musk suggested the opposite: Aging is probably a solvable scientific problem. He noted that virtually every tissue in the body appears to age in parallel.

“You’ve never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm,” he observed, arguing that such synchronized aging hints at a common biological mechanism. Once that mechanism is understood, he speculated, the solution may appear surprisingly obvious.

The tension is striking. Musk appears to believe that aging is likely to become an engineering problem with an engineering solution. Yet he has shown remarkably little interest in dedicating his own fortune to solving it. His hesitation is philosophical rather than technological: He questions whether dramatically extending individual lifespans would ultimately strengthen or weaken civilization.

That places him in sharp contrast with many of his peers. For much of Silicon Valley, mortality has become the next great engineering challenge—a problem to be solved through biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and unprecedented capital investment. Musk has instead argued that society should be at least as concerned with preserving its capacity for renewal as with extending individual lives.

A second priority reinforces that distinction. Rather than focusing primarily on longevity, Musk has repeatedly argued that declining birth rates pose the more immediate civilizational threat. A society may someday conquer aging entirely, he has suggested, yet still decline if it ceases to produce enough children to replace itself. Extending the lives of existing people cannot compensate indefinitely for a shrinking number of new ones.

Taken together, his views form a coherent hierarchy of priorities. Aging is real and probably solvable, but not necessarily the most urgent problem. Indefinite life extension carries the risk of social stagnation. Declining fertility, by contrast, threatens the long-term continuity of civilization itself.

Whether one agrees with that hierarchy is another question. What is difficult to ignore, however, is that Musk’s own life reflects the priorities he describes. While many technology leaders have invested extraordinary sums in extending the human lifespan, Musk has become the father of fourteen children and has consistently argued that building the next generation matters more than indefinitely prolonging the current one.

That does not prove his family is a deliberate philosophical statement, nor does it reveal his private motivations. But it does reveal a notable alignment between his public arguments and his personal choices. Rather than devoting his fortune primarily to extending his own life, he has devoted a remarkable part of it to creating the generation that will outlive him.

Silicon Valley’s prevailing instinct has been to treat mortality as an engineering problem: extend the individual life for as long as possible. Musk has consistently offered a different answer. He sees death as one of the mechanisms by which societies remain capable of renewal, while viewing falling birth rates as the more immediate threat to humanity’s future. Whether that philosophy ultimately proves correct remains to be seen. What is already clear is that his actions are unusually consistent with his words. In that sense, Musk’s answer to mortality is not another decade of life. It is another child.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Japan’s yen crisis exposes the long‑running failure of the Keynesian strategy that has dominated the country’s economic policy: chronic deficits, exploding public debt, and engineered inflation are now eroding Japan’s purchasing power, competitiveness, and monetary stability.

For decades, many mainstream analysts pointed to Japan as proof that a rich, “monetarily sovereign” country could keep an extremely high public debt without relevant consequences. The argument was simple: as long as the state can issue its currency, it can always print whatever is needed to cover deficits, refinance debt, and support public spending.

In reality, that has meant public debt soaring to around 250% of GDP, one of the highest levels in the developed world, while repeatedly increasing government expenditure and leaving large, persistent deficits. Even the IMF notes that, even after several years of moderate growth, prudence is “key to keep debt‑to‑GDP on a firmly downward path,” admitting that the current level is a structural vulnerability.

Japan’s apparent stability depended on a crucial external factor, the country’s enormous exporting capacity.

As a leading exporter of cars, technology, and capital goods, the country attracted a continuous inflow of US dollars and foreign capital that supported a stable currency and kept inflation low, despite fiscal excess. That protective layer is eroding fast. Headline inflation has edged up from 1.4% in April 2026 to 1.5% in May, while core inflation has held at 1.4%, still below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target but clearly positive after three decades of near‑zero price growth.

A key factor of the Japanese model was its export engine and the “golden goose” of capital inflows.

These two factors allowed the country to live with large debt and deficits without immediately triggering high inflation. However, that mirage is vanishing as external performance falters and inflation, though moderate, bites into real incomes.

Keynesianism did not spur growth or improve Japanese citizens’ lives. It just bloated an unsustainable government machine.

Recent data show that price increases are now broad‑based, not confined to a few categories. In May 2026, overall CPI inflation was 1.5% year-on-year. However, food prices rose 3.5% year-on-year, which is a heavy burden for households. Goods inflation stood at 2.0%, while services inflation was around 1.0%.

Underlying inflationary pressures, particularly in services and wage‑sensitive sectors, are now embedded in the system rather than an isolated energy shock. Meanwhile, real net wages are stagnant or declining. Japanese citizens face an affordability crisis.

The authorities, obsessed for years with the ludicrous “risk of deflation,” consciously tried to push inflation above zero, aiming to erode the real value of the public‑debt stock. They have achieved modest inflation, but at the cost of real wage erosion. Despite headline gains in nominal pay, inflation‑adjusted wages have fallen for four consecutive fiscal years, with a 0.5% decline in real wages in fiscal 2025 alone. Citizens are poorer, while the government is bigger, even as headline macro indicators show stability.

The most visible symptom of this model’s exhaustion is the yen. Despite repeated interventions by the Bank of Japan and a shift towards higher policy rates—the BOJ’s benchmark is now at its highest point since the mid‑1990s—the currency has slid to levels not seen in almost forty years. Each attempt to defend the yen produces a brief rebound, but the broader trend reflects markets’ concern about Japan’s long‑term fiscal and monetary sustainability.

Japan is not going bankrupt in strict terms; it is demolishing its currency, which is equivalent to an implicit default.

No one wants Japan to fail, but the model has delivered nothing in the past decade. The IMF talks about solid output growth, robust domestic demand, and low unemployment. However, domestic demand and GDP are disguised by constantly rising government spending, while low unemployment is a consequence of challenging demographic conditions. Japan’s population is aging and shrinking, and Keynesianism has made it harder for families to grow and have children.

If GDP and domestic demand were really strong, the country would have a strong currency. Instead, the yen weakness reveals investors’ skepticism regarding a model that combines very high debt, structurally positive inflation, and decades of real wage stagnation.

Japan has avoided a formal sovereign default and sudden stop in financing not because the Keynesian model is sound, but because the country still attracts a “gigantic” inflow of foreign capital and investment. Those inflows supply dollars, support asset prices, and help keep the system running despite its internal contradictions. A Bank Of Japan obsessed with raising asset prices by increasing ownership of ETFs shows it is more interested in headline figures than citizens’ cost of living.

On the surface, the wage picture in early 2026 looks encouraging. Average cash earnings grew 3.5% year‑on‑year in April 2026, marking the 52nd consecutive month of nominal wage gains and the fastest pace since late 2024. Base pay was up 3.4%, and nominal wages rose across sectors—from manufacturing and construction to information and communications and finance. Government data show that in March, nominal wages increased about 2.7%, while the consumer inflation rate used to calculate real wages stood at 1.6%, allowing real wages to rise roughly 1% in that month. However, these monthly improvements sit atop a longer‑term pattern where inflation has outpaced wage growth. Over fiscal 2025, real wages fell 0.5% and the small bounce may be short-lived as estimates show another negative real wage year for 2026. Japan’s real wages have stagnated for nearly 30 years since peaking in 1997. The inflation that policymakers wanted to generate is ultimately eroding the living standards of the citizens whose demand is supposed to sustain growth.

Against this backdrop, calls to raise taxes further to stabilize the public accounts risk pushing the system into another vicious circle. Higher taxation would likely weaken investment and capital inflows, undermine competitiveness, and intensify pressure on households. Immigration, often proposed as a demographic fix, may raise aggregate GDP but also increase fiscal strain when public finances are already deeply imbalanced, as seen in other advanced economies.

Japan’s situation is not a sudden accident; it is the culmination of policies that have been failing for decades. The country’s wealth, export capacity, and capital inflows allowed it to live with large imbalances for a long time. The difference today is that the traditional strengths have weakened, and the latest data make the structural problems clearer.

Japan shows the structural failure of a policy approach that “always seeks to expand public imbalances at the expense of citizens.” The Keynesian experiment in Japan aimed to prove that government is a key engine of growth but instead produced long‑term stagnation, high debt, and an erosion of real incomes. The yen’s weakness is simply the symptom of a larger disease: statism. And some want to repeat it in your country.

In another sign of war fatigue in the West, and perhaps amid greater realization that ‘punishing’ the Russian people is having no real effect on the course of the Ukraine war, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has finally eased restrictions on Russian athletes ahead of the 2028 Games in Los Angeles.

“The International Olympic Committee (IOC) Executive Board (EB) has provisionally lifted the suspension of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) that had been in effect since 12 October 2023,” the Olympic body stated Tuesday.

“The decision was taken following a thorough analysis by the IOC’s Legal Affairs Commission, considering that the ROC no longer includes as its members any regional sports organizations in territories falling under the jurisdiction of the National Olympic Committee (NOC) of Ukraine,” it continued.

Still, it sought to assure ‘solidarity’ with Ukraine, stating additionally: “The IOC stands in solidarity with the Olympic community of Ukraine, which the Olympic movement has supported since the beginning of the war, and will continue to do so.”

The past several yeas has seen Russian and Belarusian athletes compete only under ‘neutral’ status. The new policy change has yet to indicate whether Russia will be able to display its flag or colors, or play its anthem – but presumably so.

Russian athletes can now compete as long as they “meet relevant anti-doping requirements,” the IOC made clear in announcing the status change.

IOC President Kirsty Coventry has started speaking some sense:

“We don’t want to hold athletes accountable for the actions of their government.”

“We made it clear that all athletes had the possibility to compete at the Olympic Games. This is what this decision speaks to. It allows Russian athletes to take part in sports competitions. We thought it was really important for athletes to have that possibility,” Coventry said.

Some pundits have for years been pointing out a glaring double standard: Israel’s invasion of Gaza has by any estimate resulted in far more civilian deaths than the Ukraine war, yet the IOC has not considered banning Israeli athletes.

George W. Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq resulted in – according to various estimates – between 500,000 and one million Iraqi civilian deaths. What’s more is that it was only within years later the entire case the Neocons made for the invasion was proven an absolute fraudulent lie. Where were the IOC punitive actions against American athletes? It wasn’t even a thought.

The IOC has lifted the suspension of the Russian Olympic Committee ahead of 2028 Olympic qualification events

Also, “The IOC will take a decision in relation to the display of the Russian flag, anthem, colours or any identifications [for the Olympics] at the appropriate time.” pic.twitter.com/oQWS2AdInB

— Jackie Wong (@rockerskating) July 7, 2026

Similarly, Washington’s bombing and invasion of Afghanistan turned into a more than two-decade long quagmire full of civilian death and destruction for entire towns and villages. And not a peep from the IOC or any Olympic officials.

The clear pattern has been that only those enemies and rivals of the Western allies get banned from the games. 

Summary: 

• US strikes on Iran announced, as ‘heavy costs’ for earlier targeting of multiple commercial vessels
• Oil rises as Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil waiver
• Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 
• Three maritime incidents reported on Hormuz in last 24 hours 
• Another unidentified vessel hit by a Drone
• IRGC forces hit a Saudi Tanker 
• IRGC forces hit a Qatari LNG tanker

*  *  *

US Launches New Iran Strikes, In First Since Ayatollah’s Funeral

The US military has announced it has commenced fresh strikes against Iran in the wake of projectiles striking multiple international tankers in the Strait of Hormuz earlier on Tuesday. US Central Command (CENTCOM) in a public X post says its “forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.”

“The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire,” it added. These will mark the first US strikes against the Islamic Republic since last Friday’s start of week-long funeral ceremonies for the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump had indicated a pause in both strikes and diplomacy was on in order for the burial to take place. The new US military escalation began around or just after midnight Tehran time.

Just before the start of the fresh Pentagon action, Mohsen Rezaei, adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Iranian state TV that American attempts to forge an alternative route in the Strait of Hormuz will lead to the failure of negotiations between the two states.

⁠”It ⁠is quite clear that the ⁠United States will lead the ⁠negotiations with Iran to failure,” Rezaei said. He also demanded the “the withdrawal of the United States from the region” – which can ensure lasting peace, he asserted. And now there could be a return to full war in Lebanon as well. Per breaking newswires:

• Israeli fighter jets carried out attacks in Barachit and Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon
• US Strikes Targeted Air Defense Systems, Drone Sites: Axios
• Several explosions have been heard near Sirik and Qeshm in southern Iran, according to Iran’s Fars news agency: Al Jazeera

🚨A U.S. official told me the targets included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missile sites, drone launch sites and port facilities https://t.co/II5TyO3seP

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 7, 2026

As expected, Tehran has condemned the new attacks as a severe US violation of the MoU. Early reports suggest bombing raids on strategically situated small Iranian islands just off the Strait of Hormuz:

According to state TV, six explosions have been heard on the island of Qeshm which is the largest island in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, with very geostrategic significance when it comes to Iran’s control and authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

The state TV also says that at least seven explosions have been heard in the areas close to Sirik Port which is very important because it oversees the Strait of Hormuz, another strategic point from which Iran imposes its control and authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Waiver 

In a surprise move on Tuesday, the Trump admin revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil on the open market, eliminating the primary economic benefit for Tehran as part of the interim peace deal/MOU with the US and threatening to unravel the agreement after days of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Treasury Department said the June 21 license granted to Iran after several months of war would no longer apply, an announcement that came hours after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles and drones at ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The Treasury allowed for a grace period until July 17 for transactions already authorized under the license.

The price of oil rose sharply after the news, even as President Trump has boasted that his efforts to wind down the war with Iran have lowered the price of gas and other products. The price of a barrel of Brent Crude oil was almost $76.00 after the announcement, up about 5% on Monday’s closing price.

As the WSJ notes, since signing the MOU with Iran last month, which reopened the strait and ended the U.S. blockade on Iran, the US said it would only provide Tehran with financial incentives for abiding by the agreement. Allowing Iran to sell oil and to repatriate dollar-denominated revenue into the Iranian banking system was the most important incentive in convincing Tehran to enter a 60-day diplomatic process aimed at ultimately dismantling its nuclear program. 

The waiver was supposed to be in place for two months and could then have been extended. However, a US official told the WSJ that Iran’s actions in the strait were considered unacceptable and deserved a stern response. The U.S. would continue to negotiate with Iran toward a final agreement, the official said and Bloomberg added that “US official says negotiators continue to work in good faith towards a final and Iran’s actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the US and will be met with consequences.” An initial salvo perhaps, preparing for more direct action to come?

According to the Journal, US officials were surprised by Iran’s attacks on commercial ships amid ongoing negotiations and the funeral of the former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Trump administration has sought to set up a backchannel between the U.S. military and the IRGC, a powerful military and political force in Iran, but the IRGC has been slow to engage. 

The US has continued to coordinate with commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using a route that it cleared near the coast of Oman. Over the weekend, the IRGC warned ships that it was prepared to target them if they used the route promoted by the US and Oman. Early Tuesday, Iran fired antiship cruise missiles and one-way attack drones at vessels seeking to cross the southern route. Three ships were struck, including an LNG tanker, and the US downed some of drones. 

Meanwhile, American warships remain on standby to restart the blockade of Iranian ports should Trump choose to reimpose it.

In summary, the two most critical elements of the interim deal are now under threat: the oil sanctions relief and safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. In effect, the entire ceasefire is now in question. 

Other critical elements of the interim deal included the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports and commerce, as well as an agreement by Tehran to maintain “the status quo” on its nuclear program and for the U.S. to do likewise on sanctions against Iran. Tehran was also negotiating for the release of some of its frozen funds trapped by U.S. sanctions.

Perhaps worst of all, people close to the talks say there has been no substantive progress made yet by the U.S. and Iranian teams on a final nuclear agreement, with technical talks on the issue barely commencing.

Nate Swanson, former National Security Council director for Iran and currently at the Atlantic Council, said the Treasury Department’s action establishes a direct link between the reopening of the strait and the oil sanctions waiver. For the interim deal to be stabilized, Washington and Tehran would have to work through issues left open by the interim deal, he said.

“Iran wants money and the U.S. wants the free flow of energy. The MoU is too volatile to survive without some follow-on deal as neither side is getting what they want with the current status quo,” he said.

One wonders if the decision means Washington has reverted to in effect giving the US Navy carte blanche to seize Iranian tankers, also as the Gulf region awaits likely American retaliation for the earlier Tuesday Iranian attacks (see below) on several international vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

As a reminder, exactly a week ago we wrote the following: “Iran was euphoric when as part of the Trump MOU, it got permission to flood the world with its oil after Trump effectively eliminate sanctions that had been in place for multiple decades. However, it has quickly run into another, potentially far bigger problem: as the armada of Iranian oil tankers exits the Persian Gulf, it is now struggling to find buyers before the expiry of a 60-day window granted by Washington.”

* * * 

Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 

Qatari LNG Tanker Hit By Iranian Missile In Hormuz Chokepoint

A fully loaded Qatari LNG tanker was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns that disruptions across the key energy maritime chokepoint could persist longer than traders had expected. Brent crude rose more than 1% to $72.76 a barrel as traders reassessed the war-risk premium in the Gulf area.

The Al Rekayyat, owned by Qatar’s state shipping company Nakilat, was struck early Tuesday about 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter and an alert from EOS Risk Group.

EOS said the maritime incident involved either an Iranian suicide drone or a missile strike that resulted in a fire on the Al Rekayyat. No casualties were reported.

Al Rekayyat was fully loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal, making it the first Qatari LNG carrier targeted since the US-Iran conflict began in late February. The tanker appeared to be transiting part of the Hormuz chokepoint with its transponder off, indicating it was not on an Iranian-approved shipping route.

Following the attack, another Qatari-loaded LNG carrier, Al Areesh, made an abrupt U-turn before entering the strait and began circling, Bloomberg ship tracking data showed. Other tankers continued to sail through the highly contested chokepoint, including oil tankers and LPG carriers, using both Iran-approved and US-managed routes.

Later today, President Trump heads to a NATO summit in Ankara, where the Iran conflict is expected to be the center of discussion among world leaders.

US-Iran talks remain suspended while Tehran holds funeral ceremonies for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Qatar has said negotiations will resume after the ceremonies.

UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst commented on market reaction:

Energy {UBXEENER} is among the best sectors on Tuesday after an LNG tanker was hit at Hormuz, rekindling fears around longer term disruption. Progress to normalise flows through strait appears to be stalling slightly with crossings still well below pre-conflict levels.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati noted:

Oil prices may remain under pressure in the near term as additional barrels from previously stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz reach the market. UBS Wealth Management CIO however believes the current price level overestimates how quickly traffic through the waterway will normalize as it takes time for shipping confidence to be fully restored and for tankers to return to the Persian Gulf to load oil for export. The Strait is now accommodating fewer ships than before the conflict began, and the recovery of shut-in production is likely to be slower than expected, CIO says, adding that broad commodity exposure continues to offer diversification benefits in a portfolio.

Vessel flows on the Hormuz chokepoint (transponders on) remain elevated but well below pre-war levels. This may only suggest the normalization process will take longer than expected.

Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said:

The continued use of different shipping lanes suggests that traffic through the strait remains operational, but is fragmented as shipowners adopt different routing strategies based on their individual risk assessments.

Latest Iran and Hormuz headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Strait of Hormuz Attacks

• Iran reportedly fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, with both vessels suffering significant damage but no casualties

• A Qatari LNG carrier, Al Rekayyat, was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast on Tuesday morning as it exited the Strait of Hormuz

• Another loaded LNG tanker, Al Areesh, appears to have U-turned in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday following the strikes

• The attacks are testing a late-June US-Iran deal intended to halt attacks in the waterway as the two sides work toward a peace agreement

Diplomatic Developments

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Tuesday that negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue, referencing a memorandum of understanding with the US

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Iraq on Tuesday to attend funeral processions for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, scheduled for Wednesday in Najaf and Karbala

Market Impact

• European natural gas prices surged as much as 6% on Tuesday, the most in a month, following the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

• Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with Brent trading near $73 a barrel, as the attacks highlighted continued risks to vessels in the critical waterway

• Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday, dropping as much as 1.2% to below $4,120 an ounce, as the Hormuz attacks rekindled inflation concerns

• France lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9%, citing the Middle East conflict as a factor holding back output

Oil Trade Developments

• India’s state-run refiners are in talks with traders marketing Iranian crude and preparing to buy barrels if the US extends waivers beyond August or eases restrictions

• Two supertankers hauling Saudi crude are heading to the US for the first time since February, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

• Russia’s Urals crude price averaged $41.66 a barrel at western ports in early July, falling to pre-Iran war levels and less than half the level during the height of oil market turmoil in April