Summary:

• Iranian state media confirms deaths of top national security chief Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani. Israel issues widest evacuation order for Lebanon since the major 2006 war.

• Russia is trying to keep its regional ally Iran “in the fight”; Pentagon eyes ramping up Kamikaze drone use and production.

• Trump: War will be over “soon” after which “oil prices will drop like a rock”; We are “not ready to leave Iran yet” but will in “near future”. Brushes off potential for ‘Vietnam-style quagmire.’ Trump on China and delayed Xi meeting – “Looks like it’ll happen in five weeks.”

• Macron: “We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open” Strait of Hormuz. Trump says we don’t need NATO. Key NATO states are refusing to join US efforts to secure Hormuz, amid lack of confidence in Trump’s often shifting articulation of operation.

• New oil targeting phase as Tehran pledges to be gatekeeper of Hormuz: Ships pass only “in coordination” with Tehran – talk of separate deal-making with BRICS capitals.

* * *

State Media Confirms Larijani Death

It’s official: Iranian state media confirmed late Tuesday that Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, is dead, hours after Israel first announced he and another senior Iranian official were killed in overnight airstrikes

“Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has been martyred,” the Fars News Agency wrote on X, translated from Persian. “Martyr Ali Larijani, one of the country’s prominent and prudent officials, along with his son, one of his deputies, and a group of bodyguards, was targeted by American and Zionist regime fighter jets at his daughter’s home in the Pardis area and was martyred,” the news agency wrote in follow-up.

Larijani was speaker of Iran’s parliament until 2020, is the second most senior Iranian official to be assassinated since Ayatollah Ali Khameini was killed on the first day of the war. One problem this potentially presents is that it will now by anything but clear what official external states can deal with, in terms of potential negotiations to wind down or end the war.

Internationalization of Kamikaze Drone War over Gulf

On Tuesday afternoon the WSJ is reporting on two trends which suggesting a creeping internationalization of the Iran conflict. First, it says Russia is trying to keep its regional ally Iran “in the fight” through expanded intelligence-sharing.  “Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of U.S. forces in the region, people familiar with the matter said,” the publication writes. This might prolong the war, keeping the US and Israel bogged down, to the geostrategic benefit of Moscow. There are reports that China too is doing more to step up support, but there’s little in the way of specifics that can ultimately be verified. Are superpowers starting to get into a drone-lobbing competition over the Gulf?

The technology provided includes components of modified Shahed drones, which are meant to improve communication, navigation and targeting, the people said. Russia has also been drawing on its experience using drones in Ukraine, offering tactical guidance on how many drones should be used in operations and what altitudes they should strike from, said the people, who included a senior European intelligence officer. –WSJ

Another big headline, from the same publication, is that the Pentagon is looking to mass produce a kamikaze drone the U.S. recently used to strike Iran – this according to a top US defense official. “The one-way attack drone, called Lucas, is an American-made copy of Iran’s Shahed drones, which have terrorized Iran’s neighbors in the current conflict with the U.S. and Israel,” the WSJ writes. 

The Pentagon plans to mass-produce the LUCAS kamikaze drone after successful use in recent strikes on Iran.

A top defense official said it has performed well and is being refined for large-scale production.

Dozens have been built so far, but the military hasn’t disclosed how… pic.twitter.com/j2YaoQy3S9

— Global Report (@Global_ReportHQ) March 17, 2026

“After only a few years, we continue to refine that and make that something that we can mass produce at scale,” Emil Michael, the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, was quoted as saying. “They’ve worked very well so far and it’s proven out to be a useful tool in the arsenal. It was further reported SpektreWorks has manufactured “dozens” of the drones – but it’s unclear how many have been used in combat.

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Trump: “Not Ready to Leave Iran Yet” But Will in “Near Future”

President Trump met with Irish Prime Minister Taoiseach Micheál Martin on Tuesday late morning in honor of St. Patrick’s Day, and the Q&A focused almost exclusively on Iran, with Trump again signaling an eventual US exit from the Iran war – but not just yet, and really with no set timeline (amid at least a “five week” delay until Xi summit). “We’re not ready to leave yet, but we will be leaving in the near future,” he said, adding that US-Israeli strikes have set Iran back so severely it could take “a decade” to rebuild.

Important: Trump on China and Xi meeting – “Looks like it’ll happen in five weeks.”

Crucially (and alarmingly) Trump also brushed off warnings from Tehran that deploying US ground troops could trigger a Vietnam-style quagmire. “No, I’m not afraid of – I’m really not afraid of anything,” he said.

At the same time, Trump is lashing out at NATO allies for sitting on the sidelines. “We help them, and they didn’t help us, and I think that’s a very bad thing for NATO,” Trump said. “Everyone agrees with this, but they don’t want to help,” he said.

Still, he stopped short of threatening immediate consequences, calling it simply “not good for a partnership.” All the while, Trump kept touting that the world faced “nuclear holocaust” from Iran if he didn’t give the order to attack. He even claimed nuclear conflict would have reached Europe if he hadn’t taken action.

BREAKING: TRUMP SAYS HE IS NOT AFRAID TO PUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN:

Q: Are you afraid that if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it could be another Vietnam?

TRUMP: No. I’m really not afraid of anything.pic.twitter.com/1c31R4f3lT

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) March 17, 2026

US Doesn’t Need NATO to Help with Iran Mission: Trump

President Trump is not happy with NATO and is letting the world know it. First countries like Spain, Germany, and Greece made it clear they would not heed his call for a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz, and on Tuesday France’s Macron stated it is “not our war”.

Trump said in a fresh Truth Social Post “I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need.” And more:

Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World…

Without doubt, these countries have memories of Iraq and Afghanistan, which were multi-national efforts (and largely failures in terms of becoming unanticipated ‘forever wars’ and quagmires).

Macron: France Won’t Join Trump’s Hormuz Ops

President Emmanuel Macron has just slammed the door on Trump in a huge way, though he did so in his classic meager and weak, somewhat ambiguous fashion.

He said Tuesday that though France will not immediately take part in efforts to militarily unblock the Hormuz Strait, it will continue to prepare for a potential future coalition that could provide freedom of navigation once the conflict ends.

“We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context,” Macron said at the start of a cabinet meeting.

As a reminder, Trump on Monday said of Macron: “I have spoken to him. On a scale of 0 to 10, he’s been an eight. Not perfect, but it’s France…” And the US president added, “I think he’s going to help. I spoke to him yesterday. I don’t do a hard sell on them because my attitude is that we don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military by far in the world.”

Expanding Lebanon War: IDF Issues Widest Evacuation Order Since 2006

A new – or perhaps it should be renewed – ground war between Israel and Lebanon has fully opened, also as Beirut continues to get hit from the air. Israel told residents of southern Lebanon that its military would be conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah. The area under immediate evacuation orders is seeing the biggest Israeli-drive evacuation going all the way back to the major 2006 war.

“Remaining south of the Zahrani River could endanger your life and the lives of your families,” the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X. Israeli officials have meanwhile signaled readiness to fight in Lebanon even beyond the conclusion of the Iran war, which itself hasn’t been subject of a timeline.

⚡️U.S KC-135 refuelling tanker seen in the background of an interception above Israel pic.twitter.com/orFDwBFztZ

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

Reminder: Trump-Xi Meeting Delayed 

Via Rabobank note: Trump has announced his long-awaited looming trip to Beijing is unlikely to happen because of the war: he wants a delay of a month or so. In short, only if the war ends without a US retreat can Trump and Xi discuss the US-China relationship. 

The messaging is crystal clear. So is that China can get energy from the Western hemisphere to replace Iran and the GCC if needed. So is the US ability to then put a foot on the hosepipe in certain geopolitical circumstances – as it is now doing with Iran at far greater distance, risk, and cost. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t part of a future deal. 

Trump said when asked about the trip Monday, “I don’t know, we’re working on that right now.” He added: “We’re speaking to China. I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel.”

Israel Claims Big Decapitation Strike: Larijani & Basij Chief

Israel is making another big ‘decapitation strike’ claim, saying it has taken out Iran’s top security believed to be effectively running the country and the war, Ali Larijani. Israel further announced early Tuesday the longtime head of the Basij militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, was also killed.

If true it would mark one of the most significant blows to Tehran’s leadership since the war began. But in classic fog-of-war fashion, Tehran is pushing back against Israeli statements. Tehran has presented a handwritten message attributed to him, though not exactly what passes for proof of life.

The note was released ahead of funeral ceremonies for Iranian sailors killed in a recent US strike, and urges citizens to show support for the national ‘martyrs’ – but in the end does little to clarify whether Larijani is alive or dead. Just days ago he was seen marching defiantly in the streets of Tehran with other high-ranking officials as US-Israeli bombs fell not too far away.

The IDF announcement proclaiming his alleged death:

🔴Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the regime’s effective leader, has been eliminated.

Throughout the years, Larijani was considered one of the most veteran and senior figures within the Iranian regime leadership, and was a close associate… pic.twitter.com/kBIgSSGBm0

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026

“The martyrdom of the brave members of the Navy of the Army of the Islamic Republic in Dena is part of the sacrifices of the proud nation that has emerged in this time of struggle against international oppressors,” Larijani wrote, in what could prove to be his last message. If he is deceased, he is likely to quickly be replaced.

No Peace Yet: Must Be ‘Brought to Their Knees’

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is calling on citizens to flood the streets for mass funerals of sailors killed when the IRIS Dena was sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Enemies “should know that in the shadow of the name of each of these high-ranking martyrs, thousands of other brave men will rise,” he said.

Most importantly, he announced that Islamic Republic leadership is rejecting any talk of de-escalation. Iran will exact a steep cost against its aggressors, he vowed. It is not “the right time for peace until the United States and Israel are brought to their knees, accept defeat, and pay compensation,” a senior official was quoted in Al Jazeera as saying, describing the position as “very tough and serious.”

Iran’s messaging here has been consistent. On Monday when President Trump claimed Tehran was “talking” – and later there were reports of text messages between Iran’s FM Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran’s government was quick to call this fake news.

“We don’t ask for ceasefire, but this war must end, in a way that our enemies never again think about repeating such attacks,” Araghchi has said. Central Israel has also continued to see inbound projectiles, also from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran: Hormuz Isn’t Officially Shut, But it Controls Who Gets Through

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei pushed back on blockade claims, while signaling Tehran is effectively managing traffic through the critical chokepoint – as it tries to play nice with its BRICS allies but tries to keep the leverage on Washington, its allies, and the global economy.

“Ships from some countries passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said, framing Iran’s position as ultimately as the gatekeeper of the world’s most important oil artery. “Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of ships.”

⚡️CENTCOM publishes new footage of strikes in Iran pic.twitter.com/xU1kGunLtA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

This could include pledges for Indian, Chinese, and Russian safe passage – and there’s been evidence of some of these getting through, just as in the Houthis Red Sea crisis of last year.

On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions,” adding that “there is no longer any security.”

Bombardment of US Bases, Embassy, Oil Sites

“We have no hostility toward regional countries,” Baghad also said. “What we target are American bases and assets.” This after a likely Iranian-made drone hit the US Embassy in Baghad to start of this week, and also a drone slammed into the central Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad’s highly protected Green Zone.

Air defenses in the Green Zone engaged incoming threats, but to no avail – the drones still got through. At the same time, energy infrastructure is increasingly in the crosshairs.

⚡️C-RAM fireworks over Baghdad continue pic.twitter.com/laf1QXOS56

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 16, 2026

A drone attack forced the shutdown of a gas field in Abu Dhabi, while a tanker was reportedly hit by an “unknown projectile” near a UAE oil port – only adding more pressure to already volatile markets and pushing oil prices higher.

C-RAM System reportedly seen in action, but is Green Zone’s defense crumbling?

An Iranian-backed militia successfully used a (likely fiber optic) FPV drone to carry out a reconnaissance mission through the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad yesterday.

Seen here, the drone flies unchallenged through the embassy complex for nearly two minutes. pic.twitter.com/S1Ky3eVUv0

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 17, 2026

“Nor Our War”: NATO Allies

Still, amid all this, NATO allies are holding back – perhaps confused and lacking confidence in President Trump’s daily shifting rhetoric, and as sometimes Trump issues contradictory messaging on the same day, or even in the very same presser.

“What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to ​do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Monday. “This is not our war, we have not started it.“

What the Western allies see…

CNN airs compilation of Trump’s contradictions from his afternoon event pic.twitter.com/hzMWWRuSW4

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) March 16, 2026

Some leading NATO powers have made clear they won’t directly support any military effort to unblock the strait – including Germany, Italy, and Spain.

President Trump himself has conceded this week of Western partners: “Some are very enthusiastic about ​it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve ⁠protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to ​me.” Naturally they might be looking back only to last year and the Gaza War, when the major US-led naval coalition in the Red Sea struggled to halt Houthi attacks on global shipping, resulting in a stalemate and uneasy status quo where the Iran-linked Houthis built a lot of leverage.

Iran’s “New Phase Of Oil War”

Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas has written on X. “Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,”

Blas listed the IRGC’s attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:

• Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit

• Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked

• Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms

He explained that these attacks suggest “Iran has started a new phase of its oil war” against Gulf states aligned with the US. “Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn’t been attacked, and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea,” Blas said. Brent crude has jumped more than 40% since the start of Operation Epic Fury in late February, but out-of-control spikes in crude markets have largely been capped so far by the IEA’s 32-nation “historic” emergency SPR release. Read our fuller analysis here.

Iraq Negotiates With Iran To Reopen Vital Oil Shipping Route

The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday. 

“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA). 

Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.

Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

President Donald Trump casually revealed Monday that Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL) was facing a terminal heart diagnosis and would have been “dead by June” without the president stepping in to connect him with top White House doctors.

The stunning disclosure came during a White House lunch with Kennedy Center Board members, where Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) chatted with reporters about the brutal Republican math of holding onto power with just a couple-vote edge.

President Trump on Rep. Neal Dunn’s initial terminal diagnosis: “He would be dead by June.”

Speaker Johnson: “Okay, that wasn’t public.” pic.twitter.com/HJunoPSD0n

— CSPAN (@cspan) March 16, 2026

“Death is very bad when you’re the speaker, and you have a majority of two or three. But we had it, and then we had another death,” Trump said. “We had one man who was very ill. It looked like he wasn’t going to make it. I don’t know. I don’t I won’t mention his name.“

Then the president went straight for it: “He would be dead by June.”

Johnson looked blindsided, quipping, “That wasn’t public, but, yeah, it was grim.”

The speaker quickly identified the mystery lawmaker as Dunn, the Panhandle Republican who’s a retired surgeon himself.

“Congressman Neal Dunn of Florida had had some real health challenges, and it was very serious,” Johnson explained. “And I mentioned it to the president, and I said, ‘Congressman Dunn is a real champion and a patriot, because he’s still coming to work, and if others got this diagnosis, they would be apt to go home and retire.’”Trump pressed: “What was the diagnosis?”

“I think it was a terminal diagnosis,” Johnson replied, prompting Trump’s blunt follow-up, saying, “dead by June.”

Trump then credited his fast action of hooking Dunn up with White House physicians and specialists for the dramatic turnaround, giving the congressman a “new lease on life” and sparing Republicans a devastating special-election headache.

Dunn announced back in January he won’t seek a sixth term and will retire at the end of this Congress.

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration is working on securing alternative fertilizer supplies for U.S. farmers as conflict with Iran threatens shipping through the Gulf, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on March 17.

Washington had already taken steps to offset potential shortages, including authorizing increased production in Venezuela and opening discussions with Morocco, Hassett said, speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“We’ve put established licenses for Venezuela to produce more fertilizer. We’ve had discussions with Morocco, which has the largest reserve of potash anywhere on Earth,” the White House adviser said.

“And so we’ve been all over the fertilizer problem. And I’m not saying that we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it for sure.”

Fertilizer is critical to crop yields and the global food supply. Most fertilizers contain nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, the three primary nutrients needed for plant growth, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Because of its importance, fertilizer supply disruptions can ripple through food systems.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the onset of the Iran war last month has led to a sharp disruption to global shipping, particularly for oil and energy flows, driving up prices and forcing importers to seek alternative routes.

A March 11 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that 20 to 30 percent of global fertilizer exports, including about 35 percent, of urea shipments, transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2023. 

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned on March 16 that shortages could have long-term consequences.

“If there is a lack of fertilizers this year, there’s going to be also food deprivation next year,” she said.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also cautioned on March 16 that shipping disruptions in the Gulf could drive up global food prices because fertilizers move through the region.

Hassett acknowledged disruptions could not be fully eliminated but said they could be reduced.

Asked whether alternative supplies would be prioritized for domestic use, Hassett said the focus was squarely on U.S. agriculture. He said fertilizer supplies were a top concern, because U.S. farmers apply large quantities during the spring planting season.

He noted that common fertilizers include ammonia-, urea- and nitrogen-based products, as well as potash, which is typically applied in the fall but still crucial to crop yields.

“A lot of this stuff is made from liquid natural gas,” Hassett said, adding that one major facility in Qatar supplies a significant share of fertilizer used in the United States. “It supplies maybe about 20 percent of the fertilizer in the U.S.,” he said.

Supply Chains

Fertilizer distribution in the United States depends on a complex transportation network linking imports, domestic production, and inland distribution.

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture transportation data, imports typically arrive at major ports on dry bulk vessels or enter by rail from Canada, then move inland by barge, rail, pipeline, and truck.

In the Middle East region, Saudi Arabia accounted for 24 percent of U.S. phosphorus fertilizer imports and 4 percent of nitrogen fertilizer imports over the past year. Israel supplied 16 percent of U.S. phosphorus fertilizer imports, while Lebanon accounted for 5 percent.

Import volumes also follow a seasonal pattern tied to farming cycles. USDA data show shipments rise sharply in late winter and early spring ahead of planting, fall during the growing season, and increase again toward winter preparation.

Between February 2025 and January 2026, potassium imports were consistently the largest, at roughly 928,000 tons in April and about 573,000 tons in December.

Nitrogen imports peaked at around 923,000 tons in March 2025, then dropped from nearly 360,000 tons to around 309,000 tons in June and July, respectively, while phosphorus imports were far smaller and more variable.

War Outlook, Economic Impact

Hassett expressed confidence that the conflict would be relatively short, citing the administration’s planning and coordination with allies.

“We are basically getting briefed on every nuance of the war every day and then thinking through the economic implications,” he told CNBC on March 17, adding that officials had prepared for disruptions across sectors “from fertilizer to getting fuel to the West Coast.”

He said the administration believed the conflict would last weeks rather than months, consistent with President Donald Trump’s earlier timeline.

“The bottom line is that the timeline that President Trump has stated over and over is that it’s a four- to six-week war and that we’re ahead of schedule,” Hassett said.

Despite higher fuel costs, he said the U.S. economy remained resilient.

“The U.S. economy is fundamentally sound,” he stated, adding that Iran had not significantly damaged U.S. economic performance.

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 16, officially creating an anti-fraud task force headed by Vice President JD Vance, a job that could be one of the most important in the country, the president said during an Oval Office signing ceremony.

Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson will serve as co-chair of the task force alongside Vance, Trump said, calling both men “extremely brilliant and just very talented.”

Their work could return hundreds of billions of dollars to American taxpayers, Trump said.

Officials have estimated that fraudsters steal up to $300 billion per year from government programs across the nation.

“This is a very big thing that we’re doing,” the president said.

“The kind of money we’re talking about is country-changing.”

Referring to Ferguson and Vance, Trump said, “If you guys can’t do it, we’ve got a problem—because nobody else will be able to do it.”

The executive order formalizes an announcement that Trump made during his Feb. 24 State of the Union address, when he announced that Vance, who is a lawyer, would spearhead a “war on fraud” for the White House.

Trump said fraud would be targeted “wherever it’s taking place” and denied critics’ accusation of political motivations for the fraud crackdown. However, he said, the problem seems to be dominant in Democrat-controlled states such as Minnesota. Trump said he believes that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) are both “complicit” in that state’s fraud problem.

The Epoch Times sought comment from Walz and Omar but did not immediately receive a response.

Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, said illegal immigrants are using benefits from government programs, and he believes that this is the “first-ever effort in American history” to reclaim trillions of dollars in government benefits that were taken improperly.

“If all of it were stopped, it would be enough to balance the budget. The extraction of wealth from American taxpayers to people who don’t belong here is the primary cause of the national debt,” Miller said.

As soon as he started looking into fraud, Vance said, it became apparent that “one big hold that existed is that the agencies of the government weren’t actually talking to each other.” He said the president’s order will fix one major issue: how agencies share information.

Ferguson said millions of Americans pay into these programs for “completely fake businesses,” robbing people who ought to receive that help.

About three weeks ago, Vance and Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, temporarily withheld $259 million in Medicaid from the state of Minnesota, following reports of rampant fraud in that state.

Although billions of dollars’ worth of fraud also has surfaced in California, Minnesota’s fraud problems have been a focal point for months, leading to multiple federal investigations and congressional hearings.

On March 4, Walz and the state’s attorney general, Keith Ellison, testified to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

During the hearing, both men defended their work, but congressmen pointed out that payments kept flowing to recipients who were suspected of fraud dating back to 2020.

Walz, in written testimony filed with the committee, said, “In Minnesota, if you defraud public programs, if you steal taxpayer money, we will find you, we will prosecute you, we will convict you, and we will throw you in jail.”

He acknowledged that the governor has an important role in fighting fraud and that “the buck ultimately stops” with him.

“I do not shy away from that responsibility, and I am prepared—as I have always been—to have a serious conversation with our federal partners about how to ensure fraudsters cannot take advantage of Minnesota taxpayers,” Walz wrote.

In addition to federal actions, numerous states are trying to clamp down on fraud.

The State Financial Officers Foundation—which includes members from 28 mostly conservative states—has been working to root out fraud. It found $5.7 billion in waste and returned $22.3 billion to taxpayers, according to that group’s 2025 report, released in February.

Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI is expanding efforts to make its chatbot Grok more capable in financial analysis by hiring experienced finance professionals to help train the system, according to Bloomberg.

Job listings show the company is recruiting investment bankers, traders, portfolio managers, and credit analysts to join its data-training teams. These specialists would help teach Grok how to reason through complex financial work, including leveraged loan syndication, distressed investing, mortgage-backed securities, and collateralized loan obligations. The company is also seeking experts with experience in equity and cryptocurrency markets.

The move reflects a broader push by major AI developers to sell products to financial professionals. Competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic have already introduced tools designed to speed up tasks like market analysis, research, and investment memo writing. These advances have raised concerns that some traditional financial software providers could lose relevance.

Compared with those rivals, xAI is generally seen as behind in attracting corporate customers. Much of its revenue so far has come from agreements with Musk-related businesses, including Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX, which merged with xAI last month.

Bloomberg writes that the company is also adjusting its strategy after a turbulent start to the year that included significant staff departures, including members of its founding team, as well as criticism over Grok generating explicit non-consensual images.

Recently, Musk recruited two senior employees from Cursor, an AI coding startup currently seeking funding at a reported valuation of around $50 billion. Musk has acknowledged publicly that xAI still lags competitors in coding tools, a category that has become an important revenue driver for other AI companies.

xAI relies on workers known internally as AI tutors to train Grok by supplying data and adjusting responses. At a recent staff meeting, tutor team lead Diego Pasini said the company’s biggest constraint remains the supply of training data. Much of Grok’s dataset currently comes from X.

Many of the new tutor roles are focused on credit markets, which are under increasing pressure as private credit funds face withdrawals and other industry challenges. Great timing.

Moments ago the week’s lone coupon auction priced in what was a stellar sale of 20Y Treasury paper.

At 1pm ET, the US Treasury auctioned off $13BN in 20Y paper, with very solid metrics and even more solid buyside demand. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.817%, up from 4.664%, but below January’s 4.846%. The auction stopped 0.7bps through the 4.824% When Issued. This was the 3rd stop through auction in the past 4, following an especially ugly, tailing February 20Y auction.  

The bid to cover jumped to 2.76 from 2.36, which was also above the six-auction average of 2.63.

Internals were especially strong, with Foreign demand surging from just 55.2% in February, to 69.2% in March, the highest Indirect award since April 2025 (and obviously above the recent average of 62.1%). And with Directs taking down 21.6%, below the six-auction average of 27.0%, Dealers were left holding 9.2%, a big drop from 17.6% in February and one of the lowest Dealer allotments on record.

Overall, this was a stellar 20Y auction despite the lack of concessions in today’s session, and suggests that despite the recent selling across the curve, the bond market remains in solid shape one day ahead of the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold (as most expect). 

Summary:

• Trump: War will be over “soon” after which “oil prices will drop like a rock”; We are “not ready to leave Iran yet” but will in “near future”. Brushes off potential for ‘Vietnam-style quagmire.’

• Trump on China and delayed Xi meeting – “Looks like it’ll happen in five weeks.”

• Macron: “We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open” Strait of Hormuz. Trump says we don’t need NATO.

• Israel issues widest evacuation order for southern Lebanon since the major 2006 war.

• Israel claims major decapitation strike: Says Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani were killed, but Iran disputes. Iran rejects ceasefire, vows escalation.

• Trump confirmed earlier he asked China to delay Xi meeting ‘a month or so’ due to Iran war.

• New oil targeting phase as Tehran pledges to be gatekeeper of Hormuz: Ships pass only “in coordination” with Tehran – talk of separate deal-making with BRICS capitals, while Iraq is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through Hormuz.

• Allies hesitate as Trump issues contradictory rhetoric: Key NATO states are refusing to join US efforts to secure Hormuz, amid lack of confidence in Trump’s often shifting articulation of operation.

* * *

Trump: “Not Ready to Leave Iran Yet” But Will in “Near Future”

President Trump met with Irish Prime Minister Taoiseach Micheál Martin on Tuesday late morning in honor of St. Patrick’s Day, and the Q&A focused almost exclusively on Iran, with Trump again signaling an eventual US exit from the Iran war – but not just yet, and really with no set timeline (amid at least a “five week” delay until Xi summit). “We’re not ready to leave yet, but we will be leaving in the near future,” he said, adding that US-Israeli strikes have set Iran back so severely it could take “a decade” to rebuild.

Important: Trump on China and Xi meeting – “Looks like it’ll happen in five weeks.”

Crucially (and alarmingly) Trump also brushed off warnings from Tehran that deploying US ground troops could trigger a Vietnam-style quagmire. “No, I’m not afraid of – I’m really not afraid of anything,” he said.

At the same time, Trump is lashing out at NATO allies for sitting on the sidelines. “We help them, and they didn’t help us, and I think that’s a very bad thing for NATO,” Trump said. “Everyone agrees with this, but they don’t want to help,” he said.

Still, he stopped short of threatening immediate consequences, calling it simply “not good for a partnership.” All the while, Trump kept touting that the world faced “nuclear holocaust” from Iran if he didn’t give the order to attack. He even claimed nuclear conflict would have reached Europe if he hadn’t taken action.

BREAKING: TRUMP SAYS HE IS NOT AFRAID TO PUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN:

Q: Are you afraid that if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it could be another Vietnam?

TRUMP: No. I’m really not afraid of anything.pic.twitter.com/1c31R4f3lT

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) March 17, 2026

US Doesn’t Need NATO to Help with Iran Mission: Trump

President Trump is not happy with NATO and is letting the world know it. First countries like Spain, Germany, and Greece made it clear they would not heed his call for a coalition to open the Strait of Hormuz, and on Tuesday France’s Macron stated it is “not our war”.

Trump said in a fresh Truth Social Post “I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need.” And more:

Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World…

Without doubt, these countries have memories of Iraq and Afghanistan, which were multi-national efforts (and largely failures in terms of becoming unanticipated ‘forever wars’ and quagmires).

Macron: France Won’t Join Trump’s Hormuz Ops

President Emmanuel Macron has just slammed the door on Trump in a huge way, though he did so in his classic meager and weak, somewhat ambiguous fashion.

He said Tuesday that though France will not immediately take part in efforts to militarily unblock the Hormuz Strait, it will continue to prepare for a potential future coalition that could provide freedom of navigation once the conflict ends.

“We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context,” Macron said at the start of a cabinet meeting.

As a reminder, Trump on Monday said of Macron: “I have spoken to him. On a scale of 0 to 10, he’s been an eight. Not perfect, but it’s France…” And the US president added, “I think he’s going to help. I spoke to him yesterday. I don’t do a hard sell on them because my attitude is that we don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military by far in the world.”

Expanding Lebanon War: IDF Issues Widest Evacuation Order Since 2006

A new – or perhaps it should be renewed – ground war between Israel and Lebanon has fully opened, also as Beirut continues to get hit from the air. Israel told residents of southern Lebanon that its military would be conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah. The area under immediate evacuation orders is seeing the biggest Israeli-drive evacuation going all the way back to the major 2006 war.

“Remaining south of the Zahrani River could endanger your life and the lives of your families,” the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X. Israeli officials have meanwhile signaled readiness to fight in Lebanon even beyond the conclusion of the Iran war, which itself hasn’t been subject of a timeline.

⚡️U.S KC-135 refuelling tanker seen in the background of an interception above Israel pic.twitter.com/orFDwBFztZ

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

Reminder: Trump-Xi Meeting Delayed 

Via Rabobank note: Trump has announced his long-awaited looming trip to Beijing is unlikely to happen because of the war: he wants a delay of a month or so. In short, only if the war ends without a US retreat can Trump and Xi discuss the US-China relationship. 

The messaging is crystal clear. So is that China can get energy from the Western hemisphere to replace Iran and the GCC if needed. So is the US ability to then put a foot on the hosepipe in certain geopolitical circumstances – as it is now doing with Iran at far greater distance, risk, and cost. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t part of a future deal. 

Trump said when asked about the trip Monday, “I don’t know, we’re working on that right now.” He added: “We’re speaking to China. I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel.”

Israel Claims Big Decapitation Strike: Larijani & Basij Chief

Israel is making another big ‘decapitation strike’ claim, saying it has taken out Iran’s top security believed to be effectively running the country and the war, Ali Larijani. Israel further announced early Tuesday the longtime head of the Basij militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, was also killed.

If true it would mark one of the most significant blows to Tehran’s leadership since the war began. But in classic fog-of-war fashion, Tehran is pushing back against Israeli statements. Tehran has presented a handwritten message attributed to him, though not exactly what passes for proof of life.

The note was released ahead of funeral ceremonies for Iranian sailors killed in a recent US strike, and urges citizens to show support for the national ‘martyrs’ – but in the end does little to clarify whether Larijani is alive or dead. Just days ago he was seen marching defiantly in the streets of Tehran with other high-ranking officials as US-Israeli bombs fell not too far away.

The IDF announcement proclaiming his alleged death:

🔴Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the regime’s effective leader, has been eliminated.

Throughout the years, Larijani was considered one of the most veteran and senior figures within the Iranian regime leadership, and was a close associate… pic.twitter.com/kBIgSSGBm0

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026

“The martyrdom of the brave members of the Navy of the Army of the Islamic Republic in Dena is part of the sacrifices of the proud nation that has emerged in this time of struggle against international oppressors,” Larijani wrote, in what could prove to be his last message. If he is deceased, he is likely to quickly be replaced.

No Peace Yet: Must Be ‘Brought to Their Knees’

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is calling on citizens to flood the streets for mass funerals of sailors killed when the IRIS Dena was sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka. Enemies “should know that in the shadow of the name of each of these high-ranking martyrs, thousands of other brave men will rise,” he said.

Most importantly, he announced that Islamic Republic leadership is rejecting any talk of de-escalation. Iran will exact a steep cost against its aggressors, he vowed. It is not “the right time for peace until the United States and Israel are brought to their knees, accept defeat, and pay compensation,” a senior official was quoted in Al Jazeera as saying, describing the position as “very tough and serious.”

Iran’s messaging here has been consistent. On Monday when President Trump claimed Tehran was “talking” – and later there were reports of text messages between Iran’s FM Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran’s government was quick to call this fake news.

“We don’t ask for ceasefire, but this war must end, in a way that our enemies never again think about repeating such attacks,” Araghchi has said. Central Israel has also continued to see inbound projectiles, also from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran: Hormuz Isn’t Officially Shut, But it Controls Who Gets Through

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei pushed back on blockade claims, while signaling Tehran is effectively managing traffic through the critical chokepoint – as it tries to play nice with its BRICS allies but tries to keep the leverage on Washington, its allies, and the global economy.

“Ships from some countries passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said, framing Iran’s position as ultimately as the gatekeeper of the world’s most important oil artery. “Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and the safe passage of ships.”

⚡️CENTCOM publishes new footage of strikes in Iran pic.twitter.com/xU1kGunLtA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 17, 2026

This could include pledges for Indian, Chinese, and Russian safe passage – and there’s been evidence of some of these getting through, just as in the Houthis Red Sea crisis of last year.

On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions,” adding that “there is no longer any security.”

Bombardment of US Bases, Embassy, Oil Sites

“We have no hostility toward regional countries,” Baghad also said. “What we target are American bases and assets.” This after a likely Iranian-made drone hit the US Embassy in Baghad to start of this week, and also a drone slammed into the central Al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad’s highly protected Green Zone.

Air defenses in the Green Zone engaged incoming threats, but to no avail – the drones still got through. At the same time, energy infrastructure is increasingly in the crosshairs.

⚡️C-RAM fireworks over Baghdad continue pic.twitter.com/laf1QXOS56

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 16, 2026

A drone attack forced the shutdown of a gas field in Abu Dhabi, while a tanker was reportedly hit by an “unknown projectile” near a UAE oil port – only adding more pressure to already volatile markets and pushing oil prices higher.

C-RAM System reportedly seen in action, but is Green Zone’s defense crumbling?

An Iranian-backed militia successfully used a (likely fiber optic) FPV drone to carry out a reconnaissance mission through the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad yesterday.

Seen here, the drone flies unchallenged through the embassy complex for nearly two minutes. pic.twitter.com/S1Ky3eVUv0

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 17, 2026

“Nor Our War”: NATO Allies

Still, amid all this, NATO allies are holding back – perhaps confused and lacking confidence in President Trump’s daily shifting rhetoric, and as sometimes Trump issues contradictory messaging on the same day, or even in the very same presser.

“What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to ​do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Monday. “This is not our war, we have not started it.“

What the Western allies see…

CNN airs compilation of Trump’s contradictions from his afternoon event pic.twitter.com/hzMWWRuSW4

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) March 16, 2026

Some leading NATO powers have made clear they won’t directly support any military effort to unblock the strait – including Germany, Italy, and Spain.

President Trump himself has conceded this week of Western partners: “Some are very enthusiastic about ​it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve ⁠protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to ​me.” Naturally they might be looking back only to last year and the Gaza War, when the major US-led naval coalition in the Red Sea struggled to halt Houthi attacks on global shipping, resulting in a stalemate and uneasy status quo where the Iran-linked Houthis built a lot of leverage.

Iran’s “New Phase Of Oil War”

Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas has written on X. “Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,”

Blas listed the IRGC’s attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:

• Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit

• Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked

• Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms

He explained that these attacks suggest “Iran has started a new phase of its oil war” against Gulf states aligned with the US. “Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn’t been attacked, and neither the Yemeni Houthis have tried to close the Red Sea,” Blas said. Brent crude has jumped more than 40% since the start of Operation Epic Fury in late February, but out-of-control spikes in crude markets have largely been capped so far by the IEA’s 32-nation “historic” emergency SPR release. Read our fuller analysis here.

Iraq Negotiates With Iran To Reopen Vital Oil Shipping Route

The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday. 

“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA). 

Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.

Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index has tumbled into a bear market since Operation Epic Fury unleashed flight disruptions across the Middle East and sent Jet A fuel prices sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank warning the fuel price shock could become an “existential threat” for the weakest carriers. The key question now is whether the worst of the selloff in US airline stocks is over, with UBS analysts beginning to ask if a bottom is near.  

UBS analyst Atul Maheswari said that “most airlines will likely point 1Q towards the midpoint of the guidance” in the earnings season, adding, “Fuel spiked in early March, but airlines tend to hold two weeks of fuel inventory, implying higher fuel will impact only about 15 days of 1Q.”

“This should cushion the drag to 1Q EPS. Plus, airlines have been talking up demand through the course of the quarter, suggesting upside to 1Q RASM. With respect to FY guide, we expect airlines to suspend FY’26 outlook given the significant uncertainty around fuel costs for the rest of the year,” Maheswari noted.

The analyst said that airline stocks are approaching a 2022-style decline, similar to the Russia-Ukraine fuel shock, which may now imply a potential bottoming for airline stocks.

He explained:

How does the current decline in airline stocks compare to historical periods?

If we use share price performance in 1H’22 as a guide, then it suggests that the bottom might be near for these airline stocks.

Since 2/26, shares of ALK and smaller players are down around -30% while UAL, AAL, and LUV are down mid 20%. DAL is down only -17%. The decline in LUV, ALK and smaller players have already matched the peak to trough declines witnessed in 1H’22 – the last time jet fuel witnessed a spike of similar magnitude (following the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as we are seeing currently (full details in fig. 3).

The declines in share prices DAL/UAL have not yet matched the levels witnessed in 2022, but these players now have superior business models with relatively higher margins, suggesting better ability to deal with the fuel price shock.

However, there is a caveat:

Though, one needs to be mindful of the tail risk of this conflict persisting for longer than expected driving jet fuel even higher from current levels. There is also potential for inflation to pick up materially the longer the conflict persists and for consumers to start pulling back from travel and other spending. We don’t think this scenario of demand destruction is necessarily priced into the stocks even at these levels.

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index is currently showing a drawdown of about 22%.

Maheswari lowered estimates and price targets for airline stocks within the UBS coverage universe:

• DAL: We lower our FY’26 EPS estimate to $5.85 (was $7.17) assuming 50% pass through of higher fuel costs. Our FY’27 EPS estimate goes to $8.31 from $8.72. Our revised PT is $83, down from $87 previously based on 10x FY’27 EPS estimates.

• UAL: We lower FY’26 EPS estimate to $10.22 from $13.56 while our FY’27 EPS estimate goes to $14.87 from $16.28. We assume ~45% fuel pass through rates for UAL for FY’26. Our new PT is $134 vs. $147 previously.

• AAL: AAL has higher fuel sensitivity than DAL/UAL. As such, the decline AAL sees a greater decline in FY’26 estimates (now at $0.43 vs. $2.21 previously). Our FY’27 EPS falls to $2.13, down from $2.99. This drives a moderation in our PT to $15 from $21.

• LUV: We lower our PT to $59 from $73, which is 11x (was 12x) our new FY’27 EPS estimate of $5.33 (was $6.07). Our FY’26 EPS moves lower to $3.59 (was $5.05).

• ALK: We lower our PT to $60 from $77 based on 8x (was 9x) our new FY’27 EPS estimate of $7.48 (was $8.60). ALK also has high fuel sensitivity to EPS. As such, our FY’26 estimates move meaningfully lower to $2.19 from $5.21.

• We lower lower price targets and estimates for JBLU, ULCC, ALGT, and AC. Full details in figure 1.

• Sensitivity to higher fuel: We estimate that every $0.25/gallon increase in jet fuel would lower DAL’s EPS by around -15 to -17% and 20-25% for UAL/LUV (assuming no pass through in the form of higher fares). Fuel sensitivity is higher for AAL/ALK and smaller players. We calculate that for every $0.25/gallon increase in fuel RASM would need to increase by 200-250 bps to fully offset the fuel drag (see fig. 2).

Earlier, US airlines reported strong bookings, with Delta and American both posting some of their best sales days in history as premium leisure and corporate travelers rushed to lock in fares before fuel-driven price increases spread further.

Airlines also pointed to rising fuel costs, with Delta indicating that expenses have already climbed by about $400 million this month. JetBlue said first-quarter demand improved, but warned of reduced capacity amid fuel price shock.

Professional subscribers can read much more from the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

After reaching a record low last month – with the decline blamed on weather – pending home sales bounced modestly in February (up 1.8% MoM vs -0.6% MoM exp and -10.% MoM prior).

Year-over-year home sales continue to decline (down 0.6% YoY)…

Source: Bloomberg

…just barely off of all-time-record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Pending home sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region in the country, increased 2.7%.

They rose 4.6% in the Midwest and edged up in the West.

Contract signings dropped in the Northeast.

Mortgage-rates have tumbled (to their lowest since 2022) – helping affordability – so what is holding pending home sales back?

Source: Bloomberg

“The slight gain in pending contracts appears to be driven by improved affordability conditions. However, those conditions could reverse if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Indeed, it certainly won’t help in April that in the first week of March, mortgage rates jumped by the most since September as war with Iran sparked concerns about inflation.

Housing affordability has been a key issue ahead of November’s midterm election. President Trump has taken several steps to boost home ownership, including signing two executive orders last week aimed at improving access to mortgage credit and easing environmental rules to speed up development projects.

As a reminder, pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

The oil spike has moderated and markets are mellow for the time being, but could the long-term economic consequences of this war just be getting started?

U.S. allies have shown a lackluster response after President Trump’s request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply — and this may spell a trend of what’s to come. What happens when oil-producing Gulf states have had enough of our/Israel’s foreign policy machinations and, as a result, begin to de-dollarize or offload U.S. sovereign debt?

Tonight at 7pm ET, wealth manager Peter Schiff, proponent of the Austrian school of economics, and Rabobank global strategist Michael Every will square off on these questions and debate whether the Iran war will undermine the foundations of dollar dominance.

Moderating the discussion is the great Dave Collum, chemistry professor at ZeroHedge and long-time friend of ZH.

Schiff: Dollar’s Days Numbered

Schiff has long argued that U.S. fiscal deficits, monetary expansion, and reliance on foreign capital have put the dollar on an unsustainable trajectory. In recent commentary on the Iran conflict, he warned the war could accelerate those vulnerabilities.

The U.S. economy and labor market were already weakening, and inflation strengthening, before the war with Iran began. Now, as those problems get worse, Trump can blame them on a war he will insist we had no choice but to fight. Stagflation will be sold as the cost of freedom.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 28, 2026

According to Schiff, the combination of higher oil prices, massive war spending, and renewed inflation pressures could trigger a severe economic downturn and destroy purchasing power for Americans. The conflict could be the catalyst that finally exposes structural weaknesses he has warned about for years: a heavily indebted U.S. economy dependent on monetary stimulus and foreign financing.

When other countries start offloading their dollars, it may be rapid and jarring. As Schiff is fond of saying, stocks take the escalator up and the elevator down. 

Every: Manufactured Hegemony

Rabobank’s Michael Every takes a different approach.

Less worrisome, he sees Hormuz being opened in two to three weeks:

1/2

Some thoughts on the Iran War on CNBC which are not quite as their headline puts it.

Our base case remains thst Hormuz is reopened by the end of this month or early April.

Yet geopolitically, that’s more likely to be through US force escalation (“The only way out is…

— Michael Every (@TheMichaelEvery) March 16, 2026

Rather than collapsing the dollar, crises can actually reinforce its dominance, as global investors rush into U.S. assets during periods of uncertainty. Indeed, in the opening days of the Iran conflict the dollar initially strengthened even as global markets tumbled.

Every also sees the war as a geopolitical chess move that can strengthen the U.S. dollar. If the post-war Iranian regime is more subservient to the Americans, they would control another crux of the world’s energy trade.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to witness the showdown. Right here on the ZeroHedge homepage and streaming on X.