Slovakia Prime Minister Robert Fico warned on Monday that some NATO and EU countries are considering sending troops to Ukraine, a step that would risk direct war between NATO and Russia.
“Several NATO and EU member states are considering sending their soldiers to Ukraine on a bilateral basis,” said Fico, who was elected last year on a platform of opposing the proxy war in Ukraine.
Some NATO members have signed bilateral security deals with Ukraine, including Germany and the UK, but there’s no indication they’re considering sending troops at this time.
“We see huge security risks in the bilateral agreements that are likely to be conducted soon with NATO and EU member states that want to send their troops to Ukraine,” Fico said.
“There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out,” Macron said.
The French Foreign Ministry subsequently on Tuesday issued this curiously-worded statement:
Western countries could deploy troops to Ukraine without breaching any “belligerence threshold”, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said on Tuesday.
Western nations could engage in demining, arms production and operations in the cyber field “on Ukrainian soil… without breaching any belligerence threshold,” Sejourne said, after President Emmanuel Macron refused to rule out the dispatch of Western ground troops to Ukraine.
Troops from any single European country being in Ukraine presents issues related to NATO Article 5….
🔴 The Kremlin has warned that a conflict between Russia and Nato would be inevitable if European members of the alliance send troops to fight in Ukraine.
The Discord leaks revealed last year that there are a small number of NATO special operations forces inside Ukraine. According to a leaked Pentagon document, there were 97 NATO special operations soldiers in Ukraine, including 14 Americans, as of March 2023.
A report published on February 14 revealed that the Chinese Communist Party is continuing to target and enslave Uyghurs through an expansion of forced labor in China. Published by The Jamestown Foundation and authored by Beijing-banned academic Adrian Zenz, the report concluded, “Xinjiang currently operates the world’s largest system of state-imposed forced labor.”
The atrocities that the Chinese Communist Party perpetrates against members of ethnic and religious minority groups in Xinjiang have come to light in recent years, including mass imprisonment of more than 1 million civilians, forced sterilization, separation of children from their families, torture, abuse, restrictions on religious freedom, and forced labor.
While most of China is composed of the Han ethnic group, more than half of the population of the northwestern region of Xinjiang consists of ethnic minorities (predominately Muslim Uyghurs) – who the Party has long sought to control.
In 2021, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo determined that the Chinese Communist Party was committing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang – a determination that Secretary of State Antony Blinken upheld.
Though the horrific methods the Party wields to subjugate these minority groups vary, the objective remains the same.
“It’s a strategy of control and assimilation,” Zenz told The New Yorker. “And it’s designed to eliminate Uyghur culture.”
Forced labor systems in Xinjiang – punishable by detention for non-compliance – are a key part of removing resistance and opposition to the CCP’s absolute authority and power. In his report, Zenz pointed to two dominant systems used to target Uyghurs and other ethnic groups in Xinjiang.
In one system, detainees in China’s infamous re-education camps received coercive skills training before receiving coercive work placement. Detainees who were viewed as less problematic received a sentence of forced labor, while others, such as prominent business and intellectual figures, were sentenced to lengthy prison terms.
Though it appears this system is no longer active, Zenz noted that the Chinese Communist Party is instead expanding its “Poverty Alleviation Through Labor Transfer” program. Zenz described this policy as “a non-internment state-imposed forced labor mobilization system.”
A Chinese academic research report, the Nankai Report, described the re-education camps as a “drastic short-term measure” and the labor transfers as a long-term “method to reform, meld and assimilate” Uyghurs.
But the bottom line is clear. “Xinjiang’s recent policy changes have rendered forced labor less visible and more challenging to conceptualize,” Zenz wrote. “Uyghur forced labor is becoming both more prevalent and more insidious.”
The United States must take notice of these findings that disguise coerced labor as voluntary.
In 2021, Congress passed into law the bipartisan Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. The law prohibits goods made by the Chinese Communist Party’s forced labor programs from entering the U.S. market. However, numerous products tied to slave labor continue to evade legal protections and arrive in American households.
Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP Rep. Mike Gallagher and Ranking Member Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi wrote a letter to Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas that outlined some of the key challenges to effectively enforcing this consequential law.
First, the members wrote, “Companies transfer forced laborers from [Xinjiang] to other regions in the People’s Republic of China, complicating [U.S. Department of Homeland Security] enforcement of the presumptive ban on forced labor products from [Xinjiang].” Additionally, “A second factor undermining enforcement of the [law] is Beijing’s increased transshipment of forced labor products to the United States through third countries.”
Last week, to further augment and strengthen U.S. efforts in the fight against human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the bipartisan and bicameral Uyghur Policy Act. This legislation, led by Rep. Young Kim, will authorize the State Department to appoint a Special Coordinator for Uyghur issues, direct the U.S. Agency for Global Media to distribute information on Uyghur genocide, and authorize support for Uyghur human rights activists.
As the Chinese Communist Party continues to target Uyghurs and members of other ethnic and religious minority groups in China, the United States must strengthen the enforcement of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and resolve to pass the Uyghur Policy Act into law.
For more commentary from Ambassador Callista L. Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com.
Former President Donald J. Trump has soundly defeated former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in Michigan’s Feb. 27 Republican presidential primary, notching his sixth-straight primary victory as he marches towards the GOP nomination.
The Associated Press called the race for Trump right after the last polls closed at 9 p.m. ET.
The result is another blow to Ms. Haley, coming days after a double-digit defeat in her home state of South Carolina. Despite this, she has vowed to stay on through Super Tuesday on March 5, when numerous delegate-heavy states will hold their primaries.
Ms. Haley campaigned in Michigan on Sunday and Monday and was in Colorado on Feb. 27, part of a multi-day tour ahead of Super Tuesday.
The former United Nations ambassador faces very challenging delegate math as Super Tuesday approaches, suggesting her time in the race is finite.
While 16 Michigan delegates to the Republican National Convention were allocated based on the primary results, the majority—39—of the state’s 55 delegates will be awarded as a result of caucusing on March 2.
The main event will be in Grand Rapids, where former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) will oversee a convention at which party insiders will vote on how to divvy up the remaining delegates.
Yet, while Mr. Hoekstra has the backing of President Trump and the Republican National Committee (RNC), his accession to leader of the Michigan GOP has not been universally recognized by Republicans in the state.
Many in the party maintain that Kristina Karamo was improperly removed from her role as state GOP chairwoman. She’s staging her own convention in Detroit.
An ongoing lawsuit against Ms. Karamo could end the standoff before March 2. On election day itself, the judge in the case ruled that her ouster from the leadership role was legal.
Meanwhile, President Biden handily won the Democratic presidential primary in the state, garnering 78.6 percent of the vote.
But a campaign from Israel-Gaza ceasefire activists to get Democrats to select “uncommitted” from the ballot in that primary got some results. Sixteen percent of votes were for the “uncommitted” option, signaling dissension in Democratic ranks over the Middle Eastern conflict.
While Israel-Gaza is an electoral sore point for everywhere, it’s particularly sensitive in Michigan, which has large Arab Christian and Arab Muslim communities.
Former Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.), an Arab Christian and former Republican who has recently emerged as a critic of President Biden after supporting President Trump’s first impeachment while in office, recently mourned the death of his second cousin George as a result of an Israeli airstrike on the Church of Saint Porphyrius in Gaza.
Michiganders Back Trump
President Trump’s supporters in the state include Joe Bancroft, who was leaving a polling place at a library in Delta Charter Township when he spoke with The Epoch Times.
“He’s not a perfect person. Okay. And he is a strong person. And he’s rough around the edges. But here’s the thing. Who do you want to lead this country?” he said.
His wife, by contrast, voted for President Biden.
“Hell no,” she said when asked if she had voted for President Trump.
At an early voting site in Southgate, Michigan, downriver from Detroit, the Sikorskis—Douglas and his wife Sandy—formed a united front for President Trump.
“The RNC should be devoting all the funds to President Trump,” Mr. Sikorski told The Epoch Times on Feb. 25, the last day of early voting.
When asked if that priority could hinder important spending on other Republican races, the couple clarified that they felt the RNC could be trusted to use its resources more intelligently under new leadership—”Now that Ronna Romney [McDaniel]’s out,” Ms. Sikorski said.
Ms. Romney McDaniel announced her resignation as RNC chairwoman on Feb. 26, saying she would leave after Super Tuesday.
President Trump has endorsed Michael Whatley, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, as Ms. Romney McDaniel’s replacement. He hopes to replace RNC co-chair Drew McKissick, who is also resigning, with his daughter-in-law Lara Trump.
In 2015, an article in the New York Times highlighted the distinct absence of women at the helm of major U.S. companies, using a methodology that was, to say the least, out of the ordinary: at the time, there were fewer women CEOs of major companies in the country than men with the first name John.
In fact, there were four times as many men with the first names John, Robert, William and James as there were women.
Good news? Not anymore.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to the U.S. financial group Bloomberg, which analyzed the CEOs of the S&P 500 companies, women outnumbered all male first names for the first time in 2017, but were tied with CEOs named James two years on. It was only last year, when ten new women joined the ranks of S&P 500 CEOs, that they widened the gap.
A small victory, then, for the place of women among top executives, but one that needs to be put into perspective, since there are still only 41 women in this position.
Illegal immigration has become a key concern of voters this election year, with a new poll showing that, for the first time in the survey’s history, a majority of Americans support building a wall along the U.S.–Mexico border.
With record numbers of illegal immigrants pouring into the country, public concern about the border crisis is higher during President Joe Biden’s term than under the prior two administrations, according to a Monmouth University poll released on Feb. 26.
More than six in 10 Americans think illegal immigration is a “very serious” problem, a sharp increase from 2015 and 2019, when prior Monmouth polls found that 43 percent and 49 percent, respectively, held that view.
When adding people who think illegal immigration is a somewhat serious problem (23 percent), the percentage of Americans who are concerned about the border crisis stands at 84 percent.
“Illegal immigration has taken center stage as a defining issue this presidential election year,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
It’s estimated that more than 10 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border since President Biden took office.
Support Soars for Border Wall
Concern about illegal immigration is so high, in fact, that for the first time since Monmouth began asking Americans for their views on the matter in 2015, a majority (58 percent) of the public supports building a border wall.
Before the current poll, the highest percentage of Americans who supported a border wall was 48 percent (in 2015); the lowest was 35 percent (in 2017).
Another notable finding is that a strong majority (61 percent) of Americans say that immigrants seeking asylum at the border should be made to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed.
The border wall was former President Donald Trump’s signature project, and Republicans have credited his “Remain in Mexico” policy—a centerpiece of border enforcement during his tenure but canceled by President Biden—with reducing the influx of illegal immigrants into the country.
Roughly 450 miles of the larger border wall were built when President Trump was in office, a project that President Biden criticized. An internal Department of Homeland Security memo found that physical barriers are the most cost-effective tool to deter illegal border-crossing activity.
President Biden has taken a dim view of his predecessor’s vision for a grand barrier, pledging while still a presidential candidate in 2020 that there wouldn’t be “another foot of wall constructed” in his administration.
On the day he took office, President Biden issued a proclamation that rescinded the national emergency declaration that President Trump had relied on to divert some $10 billion from Pentagon coffers to border wall construction.
The Biden administration later quietly auctioned off millions of dollars of border wall materials, for which it faced sharp criticism from Republicans.
Although concern about illegal immigration has risen the most among Republicans (91 percent said it’s very serious), all voter groups have grown more worried about the border crisis, the Monmouth poll showed.
In a potential blow to President Biden’s chances at reelection, 58 percent of independents said illegal immigration is a very serious problem, up from a little more than 40 percent who said the same thing in 2015 and 2019.
State-Level Border Wall Efforts
Shortly after taking office, President Biden signed an executive order scrapping federal construction of the border wall.
In a proclamation on Jan. 20, 2021, he called the wall a “waste of money that diverts attention from genuine threats to our homeland security.”
Following President Biden’s decision to scrap the wall, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, announced he would seek funding for his state to build its own border barrier, which came as the influx of illegal immigrants into Texas swelled to near-record proportions.
In December 2021, Texas officially started building its own state-funded border wall. At the time, Mr. Abbott alleged that President Biden “refuses to enforce laws passed by Congress to secure the border and enforce immigration laws” and so “Texas is stepping up to do the federal government’s job.”
Recently, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem ordered the state’s National Guard troops to help Texas with border wall construction.
“The border in a warzone, so we’re sending soldiers,” Ms. Noem, a Republican, said in a Feb. 20 statement.
South Dakota was the first state to deploy National Guard troops in response to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s call 2 1/2 years ago for help securing the border.
In October 2023, the Biden administration waived 26 federal laws in south Texas to allow for the construction of another 20 miles of border wall.
At the time, President Biden explained that the reason for resuming border wall construction was that the money had already been appropriated and attempts to redirect the funds to other projects failed.
“There’s nothing under the law other than they have to use the money for what it was appropriated for. I can’t stop that,” President Biden said at the time.
Asked by reporters whether he thought the border wall was effective, he replied, “No.”
These Are The Median Down-Payments For A House In Each US State
Since housing costs vary across U.S. states, so too does the income required to buy a house, and the down payment associated with the purchase.
But how much does the median value change per state?
Creator Julie Peasley, via Visual Capitalist, maps the median down payment on a single-family home by U.S. state, using data from Realtor.com, accessed through Bankrate, a publisher and rate comparison service focused on the banking industry.
Importantly, a “single-family home” is legally defined as a “structure used as a single-dwelling unit,” which includes:
No common walls
Built on its own parcel of land
Private entrance/exit
One set of utilities
Single kitchen
This means actual house square footage will vary within and across the states, affecting the median prices and down payments in this data.
The Data: Median Down Payments by State
The top three priciest places for down payments are tied for number one: Washington D.C., Florida, and Hawaii, at a whopping $98,670.
Rank
U.S. State
Median Down Payment
Average Down
Payment Percentage
1
Florida
$98,670
17.0%
2
Hawaii
$98,670
17.0%
3
Washington, D.C.
$98,670
20.9%
4
Washington
$86,752
28.6%
5
California
$84,244
18.4%
6
Massachusetts
$79,206
18.9%
7
Colorado
$75,304
18.5%
8
Montana
$72,833
21.0%
9
New Jersey
$71,547
18.0%
10
New Hampshire
$71,500
20.0%
11
Idaho
$64,985
20.2%
12
Oregon
$55,015
17.3%
13
New York
$50,843
17.0%
14
Vermont
$48,534
17.5%
15
Connecticut
$47,342
18.6%
16
Rhode Island
$45,285
16.6%
17
Utah
$43,488
16.4%
18
Delaware
$40,412
17.0%
19
Minnesota
$38,500
16.1%
20
South Dakota
$37,630
16.8%
21
Georgia
$35,572
15.9%
22
Arizona
$34,072
15.4%
23
Nevada
$33,306
15.0%
24
Wyoming
$32,389
16.0%
25
North Carolina
$31,867
14.5%
26
Virginia
$29,704
13.5%
27
Nebraska
$29,617
15.4%
28
Wisconsin
$28,333
15.0%
29
Illinois
$27,348
14.3%
30
Iowa
$26,461
15.5%
31
Tennessee
$25,969
14.6%
32
Maryland
$25,723
11.9%
33
Pennsylvania
$25,402
13.8%
34
North Dakota
$24,543
15.0%
35
South Carolina
$24,357
15.1%
36
Michigan
$23,153
14.2%
37
Alaska
$21,354
12.2%
38
Texas
$18,780
12.2%
39
Kansas
$18,325
13.1%
40
Missouri
$17,832
12.9%
41
New Mexico
$17,576
12.6%
42
Kentucky
$17,548
13.4%
43
Maine
$17,548
16.0%
44
Indiana
$17,477
12.6%
45
Ohio
$15,044
12.3%
46
Oklahoma
$13,177
12.3%
47
Arkansas
$11,996
11.8%
48
Alabama
$8,788
10.7%
49
West Virginia
$6,611
9.2%
50
Louisiana
$6,470
9.2%
51
Mississippi
$5,814
9.3%
N/A
National
$31,500
15.0%
Note: Current as of Q3, 2023.
Ranked 4th and 5th are Washington State and California, requiring median down payments in the mid-$80,000s.
Unsurprisingly the median down payment patterns follow how expensive housing is in that particular state, which in itself is a reflection of jobs, income, population, amenities, and the desirability of the location. By looking at the median, it also cuts out the “high end” that would skew the average (mean) payment higher.
At the bottom of the list, Alabama, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Mississippi all average less than $10,000 in median down payments.
However looking at the percentage of the total value put down as a down payment in those states (10%) indicates homebuyers there tend to have longer repayment plans. This is in contrast to the median down payment in Washington, which is close to one-third of the total house value.
Work From Home and U.S. Real Estate
The U.S. housing market has seen quite an upheaval in the last few years. Between December 2019 and November 2021, house prices rose nearly 24%, the fastest rate on record. Research found that areas that were more exposed to remote work experienced higher price growth.
Following the trend of skyrocketing house prices, the national average for down payments has also more than doubled from $13,250 in Q1 2020 to $31,500 in Q3, 2023, per earlier linked Bankrate data.
Rents have also climbed significantly, pricing many young adults out of moving out of their parents homes, which in turn has fueled luxury spending with more disposable income.
On the other hand, the commercial real estate market has struggled with falling demand and higher interest rates, putting downward pressure on prices in the sector.
The New York Times called President Donald Trump’s victory in South Carolina on Saturday a “crushing home state loss” for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
For once, the New York Times was right. A 59.8 percent to 39.5 percent popular vote victory (and a 47 to three delegate count) is crushing.
In the first five primary contests, President Trump has won 110 delegates and Haley has won 20. Importantly, these were her best states. If she can’t beat Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, she can’t beat him anywhere.
The Koch fundraising system apparently reached the same conclusion and announced Sunday it was no longer going to fund the Haley campaign.
The best thing Haley could do is gracefully drop out and endorse Trump as preferable to Biden. The longer she stays in the race, the more she will alienate most Republicans.
Any notion that she is staying in so the party could turn to her if something happened to President Trump is delusional. In Nevada, Haley lost by 63.2 percent to 30.7 percent to “None of these candidates” (a term Nevada permits). If anything happened to President Trump, there is no possibility the delegates would turn to Haley. They would back virtually anyone against the anti-Trump candidate.
Every day she stays in the race makes Trump’s supporters more hostile toward her. Haley is also an impossible choice for the No Labels ticket because she has alienated so many Republicans.
So, the time has come to focus on the general election.
Gallup’s recent polls set the stage for a Joe Biden defeat comparable to the repudiation of President Jimmy Carter in 1980 (when Ronald Reagan won the largest electoral majority against an incumbent president in American history).
Consider the hole the Biden presidency is in according to Gallup.
Only 38 percent approve of the job President Biden is doing, and 59 percent disapprove. Only 40 percent approve of his effort to help Ukraine, while 53 percent disapprove. The Biden administration’s economic program (so-called Bidenomics) is at 36 percent approval. Sixty-one percent disapprove of it. On foreign affairs in general, Biden is at 33 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval. On his handling of the Middle East – and especially the Israeli-Palestinian war – 30 percent approve to 62 percent disapprove. Finally, on immigration, only 28 percent approve of his performance and 67 percent disapprove (and this was before Venezuelan illegal immigrant Jose Antonio Ibarra was charged with killing nursing student Laken Riley at the University of Georgia).
When your basic support on performance runs from 28 percent to 40 percent – and your disapproval runs from 53 percent to 67 percent – you are a candidate in deep trouble. It is going to take a lot more than good advertising for Biden to get re-elected.
The collapse in support for President Biden’s policies is reflected in other national polling data. According to the Real Clear Politics average, President Trump leads 46.7 percent to 44.8 percent. If there are five candidates splitting the vote, President Trump leads with 41.5 percent while President Biden drops to 36.8 percent.
Key swing states reflect the same advantage for President Trump.
Michigan is Trump 46.7 percent to Biden 42.1 percent (Trump up by 4.6 percent).
Georgia is Trump 48.5 percent to Biden 41.7 percent (a 6.8 Trump advantage leaving no margin for manipulation by Fani Willis’ friends).
Nevada is Trump 48.7 percent to Biden 40.3 percent (Trump by 8.4 percent).
Arizona is Trump 47 percent to Biden 42.3 percent (Trump by 4.7).
Every indicator points to the opportunity for President Trump to win by a margin big enough to help elect a Republican Senate and expand the Republican majority in the House.
Of course, if Biden collapses (as President Carter or Sen. George McGovern did) 2024 could turn into a rout of historic proportions.
The next stage will be for President Trump to campaign in all 50 states – and in every major city. There is a real opportunity to offer a vision of a dramatically better future for all Americans.
Just as candidate Reagan had a handful of themes in 1980, President Trump can focus on safety, prosperity, affordability, and American patriotism to build a huge majority.
Americans want to be safe at home and abroad. Biden is failing on both fronts.
Americans want an economy that is prosperous and affordable. Biden is failing on both fronts.
Most Americans want a restored and reinvigorated American patriotism. Biden’s attitudes and policies reflect opposite values.
The left knows it is in deep trouble and may not be able to defeat President Trump. That is why the liberal elites are destroying the rule of law and replacing it with a level of judicial corruption unlike anything we have ever seen in America.
However, the effort to destroy Trump through judicial warfare is becoming grotesque, unreasonable, and indefensible. It may end up helping Trump and hurting Biden.
If every citizen votes, this will be an historic moment in America – and could renew our civilization for a generation. If not, America could have a hard road ahead.
For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.
Zoom Video Communications, the company that rose to fame during the early days of the pandemic, ended fiscal 2024 on a strong note, reporting results for its fourth fiscal quarter ended January 31 that beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share were up 16 percent year-over-year while total revenue and enterprise revenue increased 3 and 5 percent, respectively. That’s still a far cry from the growth figures Zoom posted during the pandemic, when the company saw its revenue grow manifold in a matter of months. The end of working-from-home requirements and subsequent return to offices as well as stiff competition from Microsoft Teams, Cisco’s Webex and Salesforce’s Slack have brought the former pandemic high-flyer back to earth.
However, as Statista’s Felx Richter details below,Zoom isn’t the only pandemic winner struggling to maintain its momentum in the post-pandemic world. Other companies that soared under the special circumstances created by Covid-19 have also come crashing down over the past two years, as normal life gradually returned. Home fitness company Peloton and DIY marketplace Etsy, which profited from a large volume of mask sales on its platform during the pandemic, are two such examples, along with vaccine maker Moderna and DocuSign, a company that allows companies to manage agreements electronically.
As the chart above shows, all of these companies saw their stock price surge during the Covid crisis, but all of them have fallen more than 75 percent from their peak pandemic valuation.
$1,000 invested in Moderna shares on March 11, 2020, the day the WHO declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic, would have appreciated to more than $20,000 by August 2021 and would still be worth almost $4,000 today.
Investors who bought shares of DocuSign, Zoom or Peloton at the onset of the pandemic and held on to them until now are suffering from a severe pandemic hangover, though, as the shares of these companies are now worth (significantly) less than they were in March 2020.
OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts that were set to expire at the end of the first quarter could be extended through the end of the year, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Crude oil prices jumped with the news from three anonymous OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters, indicating that OPEC+ was considering an extension of its voluntary production cuts into the second quarter to lend further support to the market. What’s more, the sources suggested that the group could keep the voluntary cuts in place through the end of this year.
In fact, one of the OPEC+ sources said that the cut extension into the second quarter was “likely”.
Neither OPEC nor Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry responded to Reuters’ request for comments.
Oil prices were trading up more than 1% on the news in afternoon trading. But the oil industry was largely already betting on OPEC+ extending its oil production cuts beyond the first quarter and into the next, a Bloomberg survey showed last Friday. The anonymous survey predicted. According to industry watchers, OPEC+ would be forced to keep the oil off the market, with supply continuing to exceed demand. “OPEC+ have no choice but to extend the current cuts in order to avoid a meltdown,” Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd, said last week.
OPEC+ members collectively decided to voluntarily cut 2.2 million bpd from the group’s production this quarter, although much of that was production cuts that were already in effect, including Saudi Arabia’s 1 million bpd voluntary cut. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has always left the door open to extending the cuts, saying as far back as December that the production cuts could extend beyond March should the market require it.
Argentina’s oil-producing provinces have threatened to cut off oil supply to the rest of the country if the government of Javier Milei goes through with plans to withhold billions in federal tax revenues.
“Not a drop of oil will come out on Wednesday if they don’t respect the provinces once and for all and take their foot off our back,” the governor of the southern Chubut province, Ignacio Torres, told a local TV channel, as quoted by AFP.
The central government wants to withhold the equivalent of some $15.3 million from Chubut as a way of collecting on unpaid debt from that and 10 other provinces, as explained by Economy Minister Luis Caputo.
In response to the threat, the Argentinian president took to X to slam the governor of Chubut and his peers for being “fiscal degenerates”. The spat prompted a local analyst to issue a warning that the president might have bitten off a larger piece than he could chew.
“There is a rebellion in the provinces, and a mistaken assessment by Milei about the level of conflict,” Artemio Lopez told AFP. He went on to explain that it was one thing for the president to lock horns with an unpopular parliament but provincial governors were a different sort of opponent.
“Most of them got a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the last election,” the analyst said.
Patagonia, in the southern part of Argentina, is the home of most of the country’s oil production, present and future. The Vaca Muerta shale play—the second largest in the world—is in the northern part of that region but state-owned YPF recently announced a shale oil and gas discovery in Chubut, which is about 1,000 miles south of the Vaca Muerta formation.
At the moment, the Vaca Muerta accounts for about two-thirds of Argentina’s oil production. Investments in the play last year were expected to top $10.7 billion, which was an 18% increase from 2022.
