Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Last week, the employment news was all about how payrolls increased by 269,000 jobs and blew past expectations. Yet, when we looked at the actual number of employed persons, it turned out that the number of employed people has gone down in recent months. At 158.4 million, total employment is still nearly 400,000 workers below where it was before the Covid Panic of 2020.

Those who support the everything-is-great narrative have responded to the unimpressive employed-workers numbers by dismissing them as a result of workers retiring and other demographic changes.  These explanations, however, require that we ignore the fact that millions of men age 25-54—that is, men of working age—have removed themselves from the workforce. When so many men—men who would have been in the workforce 20 or 30  years ago—aren’t even trying to get a job, this lowers the unemployment rate and makes total jobs numbers look more impressive. 

In fact, as of September of this year, there appears to be nearly a six-million-man gap between the number of men in the prime-age group—age 25-54—and the number of prime-age men actually in the workforce. Depending on why they’re out of the workforce, that is potentially some very bad news for both the economy and for society overall. 

How Many Men Are Out of the Work Force?

Prime-age male workforce participation rose year-over-year in November, rising to 88.4 percent above last November’s estimate of 88.2 percent. Workforce participation has been climbing out of a hole since the rate hit an all-time low of 86.4 percent during April 2020. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey).

The larger trend in workforce participation for prime-age men, however, has been one of decline for decades. During the 1950s and into the early 60s, prime-age workforce participation for men was nearly 98 percent. That began to fall throughout the 60s, and by 1980, it was around 94 percent. The trend didn’t end there, however, and even during the construction boom of the housing-bubble years, participation never rose above 91.4 percent. The participation rate has never risen above 90 percent since 2009.

What does this mean in total numbers of prime-age males? If we look at the difference between total prime-age men, and the total number of them in the work force, we find that the gap as of November was about 7,040,000 men.

Source: OECD: “Working Age Population, Age 25-54”;   Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey).

The workforce measure is of civilian workers, however, so if we account for approximately one million active-duty males, that leaves us with about 6 million men out of the work force. But what about stay-at-home dads? Many of these dads have at least part-time jobs, and are thus still in the work force. According to Census data, however, the number of stay-at-home dads who are also “out of the workforce” numbers approximately 200,000. 

So, if we shrink that gap by the men in the military and by the stay-at-home dads who don’t earn wages, we are left with about 5.8 million men who are spending their days doing something other than working for (legal) wages or parenting children.

So, how are these men surviving without income? According to research by Ariel Binder and John Bound, most of these men are low-income, but receive income from parents, spouses, and girlfriends. Among men not in the work force, this cohabitants’ income “accounts for the largest share of income” in the households where these men reside. Many of these men elect not to work because the opportunity cost of not working is relatively low. As Alan Kreuger has noted, the decline in workforce participation has been especially steep among those with lower earning potential such as those with a high school degree or less.  Many men in this category also report poor health and that they take pain medication daily. This also suggests high incidence of opioid addiction among men not in the work force. Few younger men who have left the workforce are eligible for government disability benefits. Among older men, however, disability benefits supplement income from other household members. 

What If These Men Rejoined the Work Force? 

Having a few million men leave the workforce drives down the unemployment rate. What would the employment picture look like if all these men were to suddenly join the workforce by looking for work?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there is a gap of four million between job openings—10 million—and total unemployed workers—6 million. If all the current job openings were magically filled by current unemployed workers, that would still leave 2 million unemployed workers. Now, let’s add back into the work force those 5.8 million males who are aren’t in the work force at all. We’d then have a situation in which all job openings were filled and we still would have 7.8 million unemployed workers. The unemployment rate would increase to 4.7 percent, or the highest rate since September 2021. 

But that’s not a very probable scenario. While many of the six million unemployed workers are only in transition, many others are unemployed because their industries are cutting jobs, or because the workers generally lack the proper skills or education. When it comes to the men who have left the work force entirely, the picture is more bleak. As we’ve seen, a sizable portion of men who have left the work force have likely done so for reasons that make them something other than ideal job candidates. If they were to begin looking for work, the more likely scenario is one in which the currently unemployed 6 million workers would balloon up to over 10 million. This would drive the unemployment rate up over 6 percent while also softening upward pressure on wages. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Household Employment Survey;  JOLTS Survey; US Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey).

Once layoffs start to accelerate—as many indicators suggest will happen in 2023—the situation will only become worse with the unemployment rate heading up even higher. 

If one were to go only on the headlines we get from the mainstream business press, though, it does seem like there’s nary a potential worker to be found out there anywhere. The truth is less pleasant as millions of prime-age men aren’t working, looking for work, or caring for children. That phenomenon is very good for making the official unemployment rate seem low, but it also lowers the economy’s overall productivity while reducing savings. Even worse are the sociological effects of millions of men sitting at home living off of government disability checks or the toil of relatives, girlfriends and spouses.

There has been a massive surge in credit card usage by US households, a troubling sign that could suggest that in lieu of disposable income, many consumers are forced to max out credit cards to survive the inflation storm. 

A major problem with inflation is that monthly balances keep rising as the cost of goods becomes more expensive, but the interest rates consumers pay on the debt are also rising because of the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening spree in a generation to quell inflation. 

As consumer balance sheets become more saturated with credit card debt, it will become harder to pay off as rates rise. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the total US household debt swelled by $351 billion in the third quarter to $16.5 trillion. Credit card balances jumped 15%, the fastest annual rate in two decades. 

Households are taking on insurmountable credit card debts while rates are climbing — as well as personal savings is collapsing. 

This couldn’t come at the worst time for consumers who have endured 19 months of consecutive negative real wage growth.

Bloomberg cited a new CreditCards.com report Thursday that outlined the average annual percentage rate for retailer-brand credit cards is now at a mindboggling record high of 26.72%, up from 24.35% in 2021. Meanwhile, the average APR for general-purpose cards is 22.66%. 

In another report, store cards, including ones from Wayfair, Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s, Shell, Exxon Mobil, QVC, and the Home Shopping Network, with variable APRs, were reported to breach above 30% in some cases. 

BankRate.com reports that the APR on the average US credit card just hot 19.40% – a new record high…

Matt Schulz, the chief credit analyst for LendingTree, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying some store cards that hit 30% were lowered soon after. 

Consumers carrying hefty balances could see APRs rise through early next year but may top out around these levels as the Fed’s hiking spree could hit a terminal rate of 5% before the summer of next year. 

Depletion of savings by consumers and shifting to credit cards shows how many are quickly running out of lifelines. 

Despite all of these pressures, delinquency rates remain low by historical standards but are rising, signaling if current conditions persist, then consumers could exhaust cash piles by mid-23, as per a warning via JPMorgan to clients. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Biden administration climate ‘czar’ John Kerry declared Thursday that he would like to see American taxpayers fronting reparations for past pollution.

In an interview with the Washington Post, Kerry said “it would be great,” if American taxpayers could step up to their reputation as being “the largest humanitarian donor in the world.”

While Kerry can no longer avoid agreeing that China is the world’s biggest polluter, he avoided further questions on pressing the Communist state on its emissions by saying he had COVID and “couldn’t quite finish those conversations.”

Biden climate czar @JohnKerry calls for U.S. taxpayers to fund climate reparations for 3rd world countries: “We’re the largest economy in the world … We have to step up to lead.” pic.twitter.com/eOYofD3T8x

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) December 8, 2022

Kerry further stated that the green agenda must “accelerate”:

Biden Climate Envoy John Kerry says “green” energy must “accelerate.”

“We have to be deploying renewables six times faster than we are today. We have to be deploying electric vehicles about 20 times faster than we are today.” pic.twitter.com/e96NE6KwYX

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 8, 2022

He also expressed disappointment that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has “altered the dynamics of the transition we were really ramping up to,” and given ammunition to detractors who can now argue that the green agenda is being implemented “too fast.”

Biden Climate Envoy John Kerry laments Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because it “has altered the dynamics of the [energy] transition that we were really ramping up.” pic.twitter.com/l8soSKoASn

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 8, 2022

Kerry also openly bragged about doing the bidding of globalists at the COP27 summit:

Less than one month ago: pic.twitter.com/QR4KZ9vAsv

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) December 8, 2022

Will Kerry stop flying around on his private jet though?

Obama B-Day Party: “Former senator & U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was spotted along with TV presenter & comedian Stephen Colbert. Both men have homes on the island… Kerry took a private jet to the island of Martha’s Vineyard.”https://t.co/9d6aURbdbq pic.twitter.com/njzSz3eWKI

— Jerry Christmas 🎅🏼🎄 (@JerryDunleavy) August 7, 2021

Kerry’s family private jet has emitted over 300 metric tons of carbon since Biden took office, federal data shows:

John Kerry’s family private jet emitted over 300 metric tons of carbon since Biden took office – John Kerry’s family private jet emitted over 300 metric tons of carbon since Biden took officehttps://t.co/vKB0yyJ49v

— Marc Morano (@ClimateDepot) July 19, 2022

Plebs need to fund the poor countries while John flies on his private jet

— Tim Hicks (@UnchartedFather) December 8, 2022

Ok, give up your private jet, cars, beach house, etc and donate the proceeds. Better yet the rest of the elite that want to be climate warriors do the same. 👍

— Kat (@kat1012_) December 8, 2022

We can start with John Kerry’s fortune. Oh wait this doesn’t apply to HIM.

— Dr. Doctor (@ZymurJosh) December 8, 2022

Kerry is willing to donate 40% of your earnings.

— Visceral Literalist (@MartinRedmonddd) December 8, 2022

I hate globalist scum who think working class people in America should pay for their bs schemes.

— Logan2274 (@Logan2274_1) December 8, 2022

*  *  *

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After a hotter than expected PPI print, all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s favorite inflation sentiment gauge – the short-term inflation expectations (12-month) fell to 4.6%, the lowest since Sept 2021. The medium-term inflation expectation was flat at 3.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

Declines in short-run inflation expectations were visible across the distribution of age, income, education, as well as political party identification.

The headline UMich Sentiment index was expected to rise very modestly in preliminary December data after tumbling in November and it did, bouncing from 56.8 to 59.1 (better than the 57.0 expected) with both current conditions (60.2 vs 58.8 exp) and future expectations (58.4 vs 54.5 exp) improving sequentially…

Source: Bloomberg

All components of the index lifted, with one-year business conditions surging 14% and long-term business conditions increasing a more modest 6%.

Gains in the sentiment index were seen across multiple demographic groups, with particularly large increases for higher-income families and those with larger stock holdings, supported by recent rises in financial markets.

Sentiment for Democrats and Independents rose 12% and 7%, respectively, while for Republicans it fell 6%.

Source: Bloomberg

Throughout the survey, concerns over high prices – which remain high relative to just prior to this current inflationary episode – have eased modestly.

Authored by Ross Muscato via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Consumers are spending more money to purchase real Christmas trees in 2022 than they did last year.

There is an abundance of Christmas trees available, but that hasn’t reduced the purchase price.

A survey of wholesale Christmas tree growers that the Real Christmas Tree Board released at the end of September foretold the price jump.

As reported in the survey, tree growing costs are up and a “majority of growers [71 percent] cited a likely wholesale price increase of 5 percent to 15 percent compared to last year, while 11 percent of respondents anticipated increasing their wholesale prices by a more modest amount: up to no more than 5 percent over last year.”

A segment, 11 percent of the respondents, “put their anticipated price increase at 6 percent to 10 percent more than last year.

“Only 5 percent expect their increase to hit 20 percent or more. Fewer than 2 percent of respondents said they don’t anticipate increasing their wholesale prices this year.”

Retailers of Christmas trees are affected by wholesale grower prices and other costs.

Husband and wife Matthew and Megan Krugger have owned Mistletoe Acres Tree Farm in East Bridgewater, Massachusetts, since 2012.

Mistletoe Acres offers pre-cut Christmas trees and also “choose-and-cut” trees. They are those growing in a field on the farm, and which either a customer, or a farm staffer, can cut down with a small hand saw.

This season Mistletoe Acres Tree Farm will sell close to 4,000 pre-cut—and in the neighborhood of 250–400 choose-and-cut Christmas trees. Choose-and-cut trees go fast at Mistletoe Acres—and none remain for 2022.

“Last year, we charged $15 per foot of height of the tree—and this year we are up to $16—even if we probably should charge more,” said Matthew Krugger.

“There are a lot of factors in a rise in price—among them a rise in the labor costs, with the minimum wage going up, and fertilizer and diesel fuel prices going through the roof.”

He said that diesel fuel, which this past summer increased in cost more than $6 a gallon, runs farm equipment and the trucks that transport trees to Mistletoe Acres—and that conflict overseas is having a cost impact in that Ukraine is a major global fertilizer producer.

Matthew Krugger said that a smart strategy in buying from Mistletoe Acres Tree Farm is to shop early.

“‘For that first week after Thanksgiving, our stock is almost exclusively of the highest quality, which the USDA grades as Premium—and which we sell this year for $16 a foot,” said Krugger.

“As we get closer to Christmas, a higher percentage of our stock is at a lesser quality grade … and the price for these trees is $16 a foot.”

Following Thanksgiving the farm is packed with people looking for the best tree, one that will stay freshest and most fragrant the longest, which he says helps families extend enjoyment of Christmastime and the holidays.

“During the weekend after Thanksgiving, we do have some people wondering if we have a $60 or $70 tree, and we don’t.”

Read more here…

The ongoing rage from the snowflakes fired as part of Elon Musk’s new, unwoke version of Twitter continues. 

Most recently, the company has been sued (yet again) related to the layoffs it made when Musk came on board. The latest suit alleges that the company was “disproportionately targeting female employees for layoffs.”

We guess you can take the woke out of the company, but you can’t take the woke out of its former employees…

A class action that was filed Wednesday in San Francisco federal court claims that the company laid off 57% of its female workers compared to 47% of men, Reuters reported this week.

The so called “gender disparity” was more present in engineering roles, where 63% of women lost their jobs compared to 48% of men, the report says. The suit was filed by two women who were laid off last month.

They are alleging Twitter violated federal and California laws banning workplace sex discrimination.

The women’s lawyer claims that they “had targets on their backs” after Musk took over the company. Reuters noted that the lawyer, Shannon Liss-Riordan, also represents current and former employees in three other pending matters against Twitter. 

Among those other complaints were claims that employees were fired without notice, without severance and were forced to work at the office…oh, the horror!

Additionally, Reuters notes that three workers have filed complaints with the  U.S. National Labor Relations Board about working conditions. Twitter has denied wrongdoing.

President Vladimir Putin on Friday vowed that Russia and its economy will endure unscathed in the face of the West’s price cap on Russian oil exports. 

In the fresh comments, he slammed the EU, G7, and Australia sponsored $60-a-barrel cap as “stupid” while again warning it would only backfire for the West, stressing that inevitably energy prices will “skyrocket”.

Additionally, Putin previewed that Moscow’s response and final course of action will be decided upon and announced in the coming days. He reiterated a further threat that among these options being considered is that Russia might not sell oil to countries complying with the cap, causing oil to initially jump on his Friday morning (Western time) comments.

“As for our reaction, I have already said that we simply will not sell to those countries that make such decisions,” Putin told reporters at a press event in Bishkek.

Meanwhile, following the EU/G7 price cap taking effect Monday, it’s become clear that China and potentially other Asian countries are not complying with the “Price Cap Coalition”. 

“Russia’s ESPO grade, the crude from Russia’s Far East, is selling in Asia above the $60 price cap as it appears that Russia is currently handling the short Russian Far East-China route with Russian tankers and insurance, traders told Bloomberg on Friday,” OilPrice notes.

The initial spike in crude in the minutes after Putin’s comments hit global headlines was soon after erased…

“Some independent refiners in China—the so-called teapots—have already placed orders for ESPO crude with January delivery of the grade, whose price was assessed at $67.11 per barrel on Thursday by Argus Media,” the report underscores.

According to Russia’s Vedomosti newspaper, as cited in Bloomberg, the Kremlin is mulling three options in response: 

• Full ban on crude sales to those nations that supported the price cap, including non-direct sales via third parties

• Exports ban on those contracts that include price cap, regardless what country will receive Russian crude

• Setting the maximum discount on Russia’s Urals to Brent benchmark

“We will think, maybe even about the possible, if necessary… reduction in production,” Putin added in the Friday comments. He noted such a drastic step remained only a “possibility”, however, as Russia still has firm agreements with OPEC+ regarding production.

“We are thinking about this, there are no solutions yet. And concrete steps will be outlined in the decree of the president of Russia, which will be released in the next few days,” Putin added.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Will a dollar decline be good for stocks? It is an interesting question, given that during 2022 there was a significant non-correlation between the dollar and the stock market. The strong dollar rally was something I suggested could be a problem for stocks, given what happened in 2020. It was a running debate with Michael Brush, who writes for MarketWatch.

We enter 2021 with the $USD extremely oversold and the most negatively deviated from the 200-week moving average since 2018. Given the dollars contribution to the 2020 rally, we continue to watch for signs of life. pic.twitter.com/XiyHzyng9M

— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 4, 2021

He argued the dollar would remain weak, leading to a continued stock market rally. Contrarily, our argument also underpinned our thesis to buy energy stocks in November of that year as the most hated assets became leaders.

That last comment is the most important. In 2021, the dollar decline provided a tailwind to stocks. Such makes sense, given that 40% of corporate revenues are from international sales.

As I stated to Michael, the risk to portfolios is a reversal in the dollar decline that would impair portfolio performance. That dollar decline ended in mid-2021, and the dollar rally began.

The problem with a strong dollar is that it makes foreign purchases of U.S. products more expensive. In an already weak economic environment and surging inflation, the strong dollar acts as a “tax” on foreign consumption.

In recent years, allegations of countries “manipulating their currencies” were a topic of hot debate. However, the reality is that all countries, including the U.S., manipulate their currency to maintain a relative balance between currencies. As such, there is ultimately a point where an attack on the strong dollar will occur either through a drop in demand or Central Bank interventions. The dollar rally in 2022 has likely reached the point where interventions or a deep economic recession will reverse that trend.

However, will a dollar decline in 2023 lead to a strong rally in the stock market?

Dollar Bear = Stock Bull?

Given the strong non-correlation in 2022, it would seem logical that a dollar decline would lead to a more robust stock market in 2023. However, since 1993, analyzing the 3-month percentage change between the dollar and equities, there is little evidence of any correlation.

2022 was an excellent example of when correlations fail. A strong dollar should damage energy company profits, given that oil is trading in dollars globally. An unfavorable exchange rate should make global oil demand fall, impacting energy stocks due to weaker earnings. However, 2022 was a banner year for the energy complex with record profits and soaring stock prices.

As we head into 2023, we expect a rather sharp dollar decline. Such should be the consequence of Federal Reserve rate hikes and aggressive policy tightening, sparking an economic recession. As we discussed, our monetary policy conditions index, which combines the dollar with inflation, interest rates, and Fed funds, suggests an economic contraction is the most likely outcome. Historically, a dollar decline coincides with economic slowdowns and recessions, which is not surprising as demand for goods declines.

The presumption is the non-correlation will continue, and a dollar decline will guarantee stock investors positive returns in 2023. While such is possible, as noted, there is no historical correlation. If monetary conditions reverse, such has not initially led to stronger investment returns.

Note that I said “initially.”

The Fed Broke Something

Part II of this article will discuss why you want to “own bonds” in the first half of 2023 and stocks during the second half.

If I am correct, it will be because the Federal Reserve broke something economically or, more critically, something credit related. Such was a point we made in the “Policy Pivot May Not Be Bullish.”

“The bullish expectation is that when the Fed finally makes a “policy pivot,” such will end the bear market. While that expectation is not wrong, it may not occur as quickly as the bulls expect.

Historically, when the Fed cuts interest rates, such is not the end of equity ‘bear markets,’ but rather the beginning. Such is shown in the chart below of previous ‘Fed pivots.’

Notably, the majority of ‘bear markets’ occur AFTER the Fed’s ‘policy pivot.’

When an event occurs, and the Fed initially takes action, the market reprices for lower economic and earnings growth rates.”

As stated, the dollar decline will likely not be “initially” bullish for stocks. It will likely be more favorable for bonds as the market reprices for slower economic growth, recession, or some credit-related event. However, once that repricing is complete, the dollar decline will become a tailwind for corporate revenues and commodity-related sales.

Of course, there is no guarantee that 2023 will play out as we think. That is the “risk” of investing in the financial markets. Limitless variables will impact the financial markets, from Central Bank interventions to economics to geopolitical concerns. However, all we can do as investors is pay attention to what history can teach us about how markets are affected by dollar declines and rallies.

The risk of an economic reversion remains a likely probability. Once the reversion sets in, the Fed cuts rates to zero and restarts the next “Quantitative Easing” program, such will start the next bull market cycle.

We will certainly want to buy that opportunity when it comes, regardless of what the dollar is doing.

By Sohrab Darabshaw of AG Metal Miner, via OilPrice.com

China’s steady easing of covid-19 restrictions finally allowed the beleaguered economy to begin reopening. Many experts expect a renewed demand for steel, which means an increased appetite for steel-making raw materials such as iron ore. Both analysts and traders believe the lifting the restrictions was a step in the right direction. This current positivity is clear in the price of iron ore futures, which have started climbing once again.

Ore futures rose this Monday after more cities in China eased their covid restrictions. According to one report, Citi Group believes that the gradual reopening of the economy could propel iron ore prices as high as $150 a ton by June 2023.

In the past month, iron ore prices have enjoyed a significant rise and fresh advancements. According to the report, this prompted Citi to upgrade its forecast for Australia’s top export. The organization also projects that iron ore will reach $120 on a three-month horizon, from its previous price of $110. However,  if China initiates even more credit easing up measures, Citi claims ore prices could rally towards $150 a ton in the next three to six months.

India Set to Benefit From China’s Initiatives

China’s sudden motivation is also good news for neighboring India. A few days ago, the Indian government withdrew an export duty on iron ore lumps and fines of less than 58% Fe. Back in May, the government levied export charges varying from 15% for steel exports to around 50% iron ore (including concentrates), which no doubt impacted iron ore futures.  Steel prices in domestic markets have been falling ever since.

Now, reports emerging in India reference China picking up large volumes of low-grade Indian iron ore in the coming weeks. This is largely due to Chinese steelmakers seeking cheaper raw materials to cope with meager profits.

A report in The Hindu Businessline detailed that traders and analysts were looking to resume buying from India after six months of suspension. In fact, one subset of traders believed that there was still room for prices and iron ore futures to rise. They cited demand for low-grade iron ore fines and pellets, which has received support from steelmakers’ incentives to bring down costs.

Iron Ore Futures Impacted by Price Gaps

The report also detailed how Chinese steelmakers were already increasing the ratio of low-grade iron ore. Their primary goal was to cut down on production costs, thus pushing up the price of the cheaper ores. These days, the gap between high and low grades is less than $40 a ton. This is down from nearly $90 a ton in March and the lowest since April 2021.

Meanwhile, the Indian government’s decision to withdraw export duty comes when India’s steel exports were down 66% (in October), the highest for this fiscal. As iron ore futures rise, experts on all sides continue to watch the Asian markets closely.

Christine Lagarde is no longer the only (alleged) criminal in charge of a money-printing operation: on Friday, French prosecutors said they had opened a corruption investigation into top central banker Sylvie Goulard, who simultaneously stepped down from the Bank of France.

The probe covers suspicions of accepting bribes, influence peddling, illegal conflicts of interest and breach of trust, the national financial prosecutor’s office said, confirming a report from daily Liberation. Graft-fighting group Anticor triggered the probe by filing a criminal report in June, with the investigation launched in September.

In a statement, the Bank of France said Goulard — a former Member of the European Parliament and briefly defense minister under President Emmanuel Macron in 2017 — would be leaving her post as one of the institution’s deputy governors on December 5.

So what’s next for the corruption-tainted Goulard? Will she quietly ride off into the sunset of retirement? Why of course not – she will do what so many alleged criminals ends up doing: work for the government.

According to the Bank of France, Goulard Se wished to “return to the foreign ministry” where she started her civil service career.

“After five years as deputy governor of the Bank of France, Sylvie Goulard wished to join the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, which is her initial Ministry, to pursue her recognised European and international commitment,” the Bank of France said in a statement.

A source close to Goulard told AFP that her departure had “nothing to do with the investigation”, which of course is a lie.

“Neither Sylvie Goulard nor her lawyer were informed that the investigation had been reopened,” the source said. A previous probe in 2019 was closed the following year after no crime was found, case files seen by AFP showed, just like Christine Lagarde never faced any actual punishment even though she was convicted of “financial negligence.”

Anticor questioned in its complaint the work Goulard performed for the California-based Berggruen Institute think-tank.

She has acknowledged accepting 10,000 euros ($10,530 at current rates) per month working as a “special adviser” to the Council for the Future of Europe, an offshoot of Berggruen, between 2013 and 2016.

Goulard, who was also an MEP at the time, said her work had “no relation of any kind with the business activities” of the group’s founder, German-American billionaire Nicolas Berggruen. She said her role included “reflection, moderating groups, organizing meetings”.

The Berggruen Institute denied in 2019 that Goulard had been given a fake job, highlighting that she organised meetings in Brussels, Paris and Madrid.

Goulard has also been charged in a probe into suspected fake jobs among assistants to MEPs from the Democratic Movement, a small centrist party that supports Macron.

President Emmanuel Macron had tapped Goulard, a former member of the European Parliament, to be his defense minister after his 2017 election victory. However, she resigned barely a month into the job after an investigation was opened into the way her political party, MoDem, hired parliamentary assistants in the European parliament. She joined the Bank of France in January 2018 for a six year mandate.