Amid a holiday-shortened week of low liquidity, bonds and stocks rallied as the dollar drifted lower on the heels of dovish Fed ‘pause’ hopes which sent terminal rate expectations slightly lower and subsequent rate-cut expectations higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid with the long-end of the curve outperforming significantly, inverting the yield curve even deeper…

Source: Bloomberg

While yields fell on the week, the longest-duration stocks actually underperformed thanks to selling pressure today with The Dow leading on the week..

The early weakness of the week gave way on Tuesday and Wednesday to a big short squeeze back to unchanged for the “most shorted” stocks

The dollar fell for the 5th week of the last 6 to its lowest weekly close in 3 months…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were unusually quiet this week (relatively speaking) with Bitcoin and Ethereum ending the week down around 1-2%. Solana outperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed on the week with crude sliding amid Russian price cap scheme headlines and China COVID cases soaring. Silver outperformed (with gold flat) amid the dovish title to market expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the Fed balance sheet contracted on a year-over-year basis last week for the first time since Dec 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Worth considering since, as Goldman’s Tony P noted this week: “…for every one dollar of US GDP, there are still 34 cents on the Fed balance sheet… just before COVID hit, that number was 22 cents. in the third quarter of 2008, it was just 6 cents. even at the end of WWII, it was just 11 cents.”

In other words – there’s a lot more shrinkage to come…

Come on England!!!!

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary (emphasis ours),

There’s a remarkable concession appearing in The Washington Post today:

“a majority of Americans dying from the coronavirus received at least the primary series of the vaccine.”

The latest data shows that 58% of COVID-19 deaths in August 2022 were from people who were vaccinated or boosted. Based on past figures and the current trends, we can reasonably estimate that the number of vaccinated/boosted COVID-19 deaths will only rise. (In September 2021, the vaccinated accounted for 23% of COVID-19 deaths; in January/February 2022, the vaccinated were 42%.)

This is what happens when you rush ineffective and dangerous vaccines.

The FDA’s promises of efficacy – 91% for the Pfizer vaccine and 93% for the Moderna vaccine – were always based on hope, not data. So too were the promises of safety. At the time of the official approvals, both Pfizer and Moderna hadn’t submitted any type of long-term numbers on effectiveness. Their trials were polluted with the unblinding of participants and their safety studies are “ongoing.”

Now, we’re seeing efficacy numbers plummet within months of vaccination. The pandemic is of the vaccinated. The boosters? They’re to the benefit of the medical establishment and the pharmaceutical companies, as they mask the true problems with the two-shot vaccines.

Even with these numbers, the outgoing Anthony Fauci continues to vouch for the jab, stating the data “overwhelmingly show the effectiveness of vaccines.”

Fauci: “If you look at the striking data, overwhelmingly show the effectiveness of vaccines…” pic.twitter.com/NNqzMmi8ia

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) November 22, 2022

This is the same man who demanded school closures, inserted himself into the 2020 election by criticizing Trump’s COVID-19 response while complimenting China, and criticized Governor Ron DeSantis for reopening Florida’s schools.

All the while, Fauci was lying to the public about COVID-19 origins. In May of 2020, he told National Geographic that COVID-19 “could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated.”

What he didn’t tell us was that he and US government clients were sabotaging and shutting down research and fact finding into the lab leak theory. What he didn’t say was that internal communications among himself and Francis Collins and Jeremy Farrar, revealed through a FOIA request by Jimmy Tobias, discussed “accidental lab passage in animals” and how the Wuhan lab was the “Wild West” and why the lab leak was a serious possibility.

Maybe we’ll get the truth once Republicans take power. Fauci has promised cooperation but be assured he’ll continue to be the slippery little doctor. Then there’s the lawsuit against the Biden Administration where Fauci is being deposed today. It’s a bit more difficult to evade questions from seasoned attorneys who have you for eight hours.

In any event, tomorrow at the dinner table, as you contemplate your blessings and eye the turkey, give an especially heartfelt thanks that this little megalomaniac will no longer curse the public with his presence.

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Tiantian Kullander, a former Morgan Stanley trader who co-founded digital-asset trading platform Amber Group, has died. He was only 30 years old.

Kullander “passed away unexpectedly in his sleep” on Nov. 23, Amber said in a statement on its website on Friday. “He led by example with his intellect, generosity, humility, diligence and creativity,” the firm added.

The crypto entrepreneur, nicknamed “TT,” started Amber in 2017 together with a group of former finance professionals, including Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley alumni. The company, whose backers include Singaporean state investment company Temasek Holdings, was in talks to raise about $100 million, Bloomberg reported earlier this month (although in light of recent events those plans have likely been put on hold).

As Bloomberg notes, five of Amber’s founders – Kullander, Michael Wu, Wayne Huo, Tony He and Luke Li – previously worked together on Morgan Stanley’s fixed-income trading floor in Hong Kong.

Kullander was survived by his wife and son, according to the statement.

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

Once upon a time, the Soviets had a tightly controlled network of internationalists known as the COMINTERN to promote their communist model to Europe and beyond.

As it stands now, the Red Chinese have gone them one better: They’ve got Klaus Schwab.

According to Fox News:

World Economic Forum founder and Chair Klaus Schwab recently sat down for an interview with a Chinese state media outlet and proclaimed that China was a “role model” for other nations. 

Schwab, 84, made these comments during an interview with CGTN’s Tian Wei on the sidelines of last week’s APEC CEO Summit in Bangkok, Thailand. 

Schwab said he respected China’s “tremendous” achievements at modernizing its economy over the last 40 years. 

“I think it’s a role model for many countries,” Schwab said, before qualifying that he thinks each country should make its own decisions about what system it wants to adapt. 

“I think we should be very careful in imposing systems. But the Chinese model is certainly a very attractive model for quite a number of countries,” Schwab said. 

A role model? A country of zero freedom, low social mobility, social credit scores, and constant government surveillance? Who the heck, even among the revolutionary wokester crowd, is openly calling for a Chinese model for their own countries?

China in fact is a giant prison, complete with slave labor, sweatshops, low wages, continuous lockdowns and actual laogai, or Gulags. Challenge the government in any way and you’ll be packed off to one for years upon years in no time. In the case of the Uighurs, just being the wrong nationality is enough for such punishment.

Far from being an attractive role model, China is a country people flee from. In 2019, by China’s own statistics, 11 million have gotten the heck out and moved to other countries just to get away from it, with about a third coming to the U.S. China has the third-highest global emigration rate after India and Mexico, and we all know what’s next to Mexico on its north side is what’s bringing them. It’s largely the same with China.

Schwab, who’s a canny operator, knew that his China-love would go down well with the Chinese state journalist-propagandists, but wouldn’t sound too good to anyone else hearing the statement, so he qualified it with claims that every nation should get to choose its path of governance. That rings hollow, given that the system he’s advocating for the West explicitly requires a party elite to do all the choosing for the people they rule over with an iron fist. As for China itself, well, did the Chinese get to choose the horrid system they lives under? Nope, in 1948, Mao Zedong, aided by, surprise, the COMINTERN, shot his way into power and imposed the brutal regime onto China by force, where it has been in power ever since.

Seems the old COMINTERN always gets the last laugh. Because who would have imagined that by 2023, that the chief of the World Economic Forum, son of a man with at least some Nazi ties, is out shilling the China model as Mr. Respectability, using the prestige of his international organization as credibility to influence Big Corporate and various activists and NGOs who have completely succumbed to the views of the left.

This organization should be dismissed as the shill of a filthy dictatorship but somehow, with all those nice mountains and good food and good private jet airports out there in Switzerland, where most of the WEF’s exclusive and pricey billionaire-filled meetings are held in all that aroma of money, it’s not. 

Schwab’s organization has infiltrated industry, sometimes with actual monetary interests, influenced many others to adapt “stakeholder capitalism” which is Schwabs pet project, and influenced others to adapt to something called the global “reset.” Naturally, they are all in for the government control brought on by the “threat” of global warming, which is completely bogus. Any questions as to why corporations have gotten so woke? Seems it’s all about those fancy banquets and talkfests out there in Davos, Switzerland. Right now, Schwab is muscling the Swiss government for fancier accommodations, while paying no taxes to them, with the threat of taking his show to Singapore if they don’t. (See the ‘Criticism‘ section of his Wikipedia page at the bottom). Sound like a guy who intends to just talk and try to persuade about the virtues of China?

 As for Schwab’s Nazi ties, they likely aren’t as strong as some claim on the Internet, but they are bad enough: Based on what Wikipedia says, Schwab’s Swiss dad ran a company in Nazi Germany that used slave and forced labor, which pretty well tells what side he was on. Even if such a company had not, the Nazis would hardly have had him in charge of any company if they didn’t trust him completely as fascism is all about state rule of corporations. On his Wikipedia page, it is said that Schwab’s mother was surveilled and questioned by the Gestapo because of her Swiss accent. That the Nazis didn’t do that to the dad, who was running a Nazi-ruled company, kind of tells us the Gestapo didn’t consider him a problem.

Seems the old Nazi values of corporatism and “reset” may have rubbed off on Klaus, who’s 83, if such an argument can be made. People can’t control who their parents were, but if old dad was indeed was pals with the Nazis, maybe it would be imperative to not adopt any of those particular ideas, let alone advocate for them.

But sure enough, Schwab is now advocating for corporate and state control of all the free nations of the West, which hold little distinction from what the Nazis and its communist allies (read: COMINTERN) have sought for decades for the West. The urge to kill freedom lives large in this bunch.

Now they aren’t even trying to hide it — they are out openly praising the communist China model and advocating for its imposition, qualified by choice (as if with rigged elections, choice were relevant) as if nothing was wrong with it. The mask on these people, indeed, is off.

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Some facts of our times follow. As you read, consider your own household and portfolios and how they measure up.

Disposable personal income per capita has been in decline in real terms for 19 straight months. This is not just dollar amounts but dollars adjusted for purchasing power. We are just now level with 2019, which is to say that Americans have lost three years of financial progress.

Savings has hit a new low of 3.2 percent, which is where it stood just after the 2008 financial crisis, and this contrasts with 6 percent rates after 1980 and 10 percent average rates in the postwar period.

Credit card debt just jumped to a 20-year high and is still soaring.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

Money, credit, and capital are draining from long-term investments, drying up the venture capitalists and putting a tight credit squeeze on large businesses where firings in the professional sector have already begun.

Inflation is still embedded and this is because consumers have come to expect it and adjust their spending habits accordingly, plus wage costs are rising in sectors like hospitality, retail, and manufacturing.

As an example, the latest housing-price data shows annualized inflation at 15.4 percent year over year, even as the buyers’ market is mostly locked up. That’s the very essence of stagflation: rising prices amidst declining output.

It might seem strangely calm out there as we approach the holiday season but the underlying realities are nothing but. An economy cannot live this way, with business deleveraging even as households are taking on ever more debt while the currency is being devalued.

It’s becoming incontrovertible that a conspicuous recession awaits if it is not already here.

What’s unfolding before our eyes is a confirmation of a business cycle theory pushed in the 1920s and 1930s by Ludwig von Mises and F.A. Hayek. The so-called Austrian theory observes the distortions in the production structure that result from central bank attempts to suppress interest rates, which is exactly what the Fed has done.

While the results are not manifested in higher overall prices (think of 2008–2020) such a policy pushes resources out of shorter-term investments into longer-term speculative ventures. The problem is that speculative capital investment in this case is not justified by the existing pool of savings. Indeed, the central bank policies have caused “forced savings” with the result of unsustainable business empires.

Hayek uses ferocious language to describe the wealth transfer that is happening here: “This causes a part of the social dividend to be distributed to individuals who have not acquired legitimate claim to it through previous services, nor taken them over from others legitimately entitled to them. It is thus taken away from this part of the community against its will.”

When things become shaky or prices start to shift, and the central bank starts to back off its pillaging policies, the house of cards starts to fall apart, as resources are drained from long-term speculation to shorter term consumption and the restarting of real savings.

That is precisely where we are in the cycle.

Meanwhile, Washington is still dreaming of new ideas to kill our economic prospects. These include zero-carbon delusions that would literally reverse the Industrial Revolution, a monetary reform that would bake surveillance into every transaction, ridiculous and coercive pandemic planning, and ever higher taxes to transfer resources from us to them.

The failure of the Republicans to retake the Senate or otherwise achieve anything truly decisive puts off possible fixes to this mess far into the future. It is a future we might not have because time is running short. The candle is burning at both ends.

To be sure, we should all in a macroeconomic sense look forward to a new age of more honest finance. The disaster of zero interest rate policy is finally coming to an end. Ben Bernanke’s Nobel Prize notwithstanding, this policy massively distorted capital allocation in the economy, and around the world, for the better part of 14 years. With its end, we are going to get a taste of some economic and financial rationality.

We might even be able to save money without losing money. So in that sense, the man who bears the main responsibility for inflation, Jerome Powell, is the same guy who will finally fix what Bernanke broke all those years ago. Remember those days when everything seemed too good to be true? There was a financial crisis that the Fed magically fixed with no downside.

Except that there was a huge economic, cultural, and social downside. Frugality and prudence gave way to massive excess and a level of craziness in culture we never imagined we would experience. Among the costs are a bloated and overbuilt professional labor sector that would eventually favor and push lockdowns as the answer to a widespread virus. It was just their excuse for staying home and forcing the working classes to bring them groceries.

What made this preposterously unjust system possible was the Fed with Bernanke at the helm. Quantitative easing turns out to mean upending all normal life and paying the horrid price for this a decade and a half later.

As Bloomberg put it: “The great quantitative easing experiment was a mistake. It’s time central banks acknowledge it for the failure it was and retire it from their policy arsenal as soon as they’re able …. That’s why central banks need to admit QE was a mistake. Their credibility is already at stake after they underestimated inflation. Now is the time to take a hard look at monetary policy over the last decade and rethink what worked and what didn’t. Otherwise we’ll be stuck with QE forever.”

As with 1980, and the pain experienced with that recession, we might have rising prosperity to look forward to in about two or three years, at best. But that really does depend on a full policy pivot from D.C. toward massive spending cuts, deregulation, and tax relief. Nothing could be both more urgent and more implausible right now.

As a consequence, we have household budgets stretched beyond any sustainable level. And you know this if you shopped for Thanksgiving groceries, which are up 37 percent over what you paid two years ago.

Right now, consumers and producers are screaming to make it stop. What they mean is that they want life to return back to normal. Sadly, absolutely no one in Washington believes that it is possible or desirable. The best scenario right now is that matters become less bad so quickly. But there will be no going back to 2019 prices under the current plans.

What that means for households is that something needs to change, and fast. The debt needs to be paid off. The credit cards need to be cut up. The dinners out and vacations must be curbed. Frugality needs to become the norm. And not just frugality but actual privation. The middle class needs to change its ways. Sadly, for the poor, there is no way out from what is coming. As for the rich, they will of course be fine as always.

As for government finance, there are no words to describe the amount of red ink. With interest rates rising, so too will be the burden of servicing this debt for the U.S. Treasury. Meanwhile, leadership in Washington looks at this data with a kind of nihilistic who-cares attitude. The old days of public-spirited rulers are gone. It has been replaced by an attitude more like FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried: steal everything that is not nailed down.

The American public is nowhere near woken up to the reality, but Europe knows what is up. The chaos is both political and economic as people have awakened to what their ruling classes have done to them. We also need to be newly aware and start preparing before it is too late.

Some day, historians will look back at our times as a great turning point. We’ve been through calamity and it worsens by the day. Will we enter into a new Dark Age? Or find the light and crawl our way toward it before it is too late?

US equities were set to end the Thanksgiving week higher, propelled by expectations that the Fed will ease off on its pace of monetary tightening following Wednesday’s dovish minutes while an 25bps RRR cut out of China sparked hope that Beijing will stimulate the world’s 2nd largest economy.

S&P 500 were higher by 0.1%, trading at 4038 after rising just shy of 4,050 overnight after the underlying gauge gained 1.6% this week. Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.1%, amid much lighter than usual trading volumes in a week shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The US stock market will close early today.

As noted earlier, China’s central bank on Friday cut the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year, an escalation of support for an economy racked by surging Covid cases and a continued property downturn.

“How effective that will prove to be when cities are seeing restrictions and effective lockdowns reimposed is hard to say,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “But combined with other measures to boost the property market and ease Covid curbs, the cut could be supportive over the medium term when growth remains highly uncertain.”

In premarket trading, Activision Blizzard fell after a report that the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s deal to buy the video-game maker. Apple shares dipped after a report that production of iPhones in November could fall by at least 30% at Foxconn Technology Group’s Zhengzhou plant amid worker protests. Energy companies gained with the price of Brent crude rising as the European Union considers a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude. Brent trades above $86/barrel, though is on track for a slight loss this week amid worries over its demand outlook as Covid infections rise in China. Exxon +0.9%, Petroleo Brasileiro ADRs +2.7%, Schlumberger +1.2% in US premarket trading. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Coupa Software shares are up 3.2% in premarket trading on Friday, as analysts digested a Bloomberg News report that Vista Equity Partners is exploring an acquisition of the expense management software company. Firms wrote that the report points to greater private equity appetite for deals.
• Manchester United shares jump 7.9% in premarket trading after Saudi Arabia’s sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal told BBC Sport that its government would support private sector bids for the team, as well as Liverpool football club.
• Activision Blizzard shares fall 3.4% in US premarket trading on a media report that the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s $69b deal to buy the video-game maker.
• Apple shares fall 0.8% in US premarket trading on a report that production of iPhones could fall by at least 30% in November at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant where worker protests have disrupted operations.
• US-listed Chinese stocks fall in premarket trading and are set for their first weekly decline in four weeks, with surging Covid cases and increasing curbs across the country hurting optimism that the country will reopen soon

Fed minutes published on Wednesday showed that officials concluded the central bank should soon moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes to mitigate overtightening risks. That pushed the VIX Index to its lowest close in more than three months that day, and was last seen about to drop below 20 – the last time VIX was a teenager was during the bear market rally in August. Investors will now closely monitor economic data ahead of the final Fed decision of 2022 to assess the impact of previous rate hikes, and for clues whether the Fed will hike 50 or 75 in December.

“The Fed needs to continue to hike rates reasonably to the 5% to 5.25% levels, so there are still some rate hikes to come, so markets are a little bit optimistic right now,” said Stephane Monier, chief investment officer at Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA. He expects to see a small US recession in 2023, but it will be “nothing to compare to the crisis of 2008 and 2009.”

Meanwhile, Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said the rally in equities is mainly due to short covering by macro hedge funds and CTAs, warning against extrapolating the move into the new year.

European energy stocks were higher too, helping to keep the Stoxx 600 Index on course for a sixth week of gains, the longest winning streak in a year. Credit Suisse Group AG fell to a fresh record low in the wake of massive outflows the bank reported this week. The Stoxx 50 was little changed after China’s latest effort to stimulate its economy, while volume on the Stoxx 600 was 38% below 100-day average. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, adding 0.3%, CAC 40 is flat but underperforms peers. Besides energy, health care and construction were the strongest performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Truecaller rose as much as 8.4% after Citi upgraded its rating on the caller ID software maker to buy from neutral, citing “significant upside” after recent declines and noting good 3Q results.
• Elia Group shares jumped as much as 4.8% after the transmission system operator boosted its financial outlook for 2022.
• Rockwool gained as much as 4.4%. 3Q results should mark a trough for margins for the Danish insulation supplier, Handelsbanken wrote while upgrading its short-term rating to hold from sell.
• Intrum fell as much as 18% after the Swedish debt collection group said it needs to make negative adjustments of SEK4.3 billion in its jointly-owned Italian SPV, according to a statement.
• Fielmann shares fell as much as 6.3% after Berenberg said margin recovery is still not in sight for the eyewear retailer.
• Man Group fell as much as 5.7%, before paring the decline, after UBS cut its rating to neutral from buy. The market is underestimating the effect of an upcoming pension fund de-risking process on the firm’s liquid total and absolute return products, the bank says.
• Credit Suisse shares dropped as much as 2.3%, to a new record low, after Vontobel cut its price target, saying the Swiss lender “urgently” needs to halt net outflows in its core wealth management business

JPMorgan quantitative strategist Khuram Chaudhry said the recent rebound in European equities driven by expectations of peaking inflation and bond yields is nothing but a bear market rally and that investors are “jumping the gun.” He forecasts euro-area equities will eventually recover “later in 2023.”

Asian stocks declined, with Chinese technology shares retreating amid concerns about growing mainland Covid cases.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 0.5%, on course to snap a three-day advance, with Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drivers of losses. The measure was still poised for its fourth weekly gain, the longest such streak since August. Trading volumes were thinner than usual in some markets following the US Thanksgiving holiday. Benchmarks in Hong Kong were among the biggest decliners, with the Hang Seng Tech Index closing down more than 2% before Meituan’s earnings release. Virus cases surged in Chinese cities including the capital Beijing, testing authorities’ resolve to ease their strict Covid Zero policy. Hopes for reopening had fueled a recent equity rally after a four-month selloff. “We think the Chinese markets are going through a volatile bottoming process,” Eli Lee, chief investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The capitulation that we saw in late October likely is the worst we’ll see. So I think investors should be gradually adding exposure to Hong Kong and China.” Malaysia’s benchmark dropped, paring Thursday’s surge after Anwar Ibrahim was appointed prime minister. Stocks also fell Friday in Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, while Vietnam’s key share gauge rose more than 2%.  

Australian stocks gained for a fourth day to close the week at May-highs: The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,259.50, its highest since May 30, boosted by banks and consumer discretionary stocks. The benchmark gained 1.5% for the week.  Nanosonics, which rallied after an upgrade at JPMorgan, was the top performer. Meanwhile, shares of lithium-related companies were the worst performers on the benchmark after news that battery electric vehicle registrations in China fell 20.9% in October from a month earlier.   In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,382.56

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the first day in four as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries were steady to a tad lower.

• Antipodean currencies and the yen were the worst performers. New Zealand’s consumer confidence index fell to 80.7 in November from 85.4 in October, according to ANZ Bank
• The yen dropped alongside Japanese bonds after data show faster-than-expected inflation in Tokyo. Tokyo consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.6% y/y this month, the most since 1982 and faster than the 3.5% increase estimated by economists in a Bloomberg survey. The yen heads for a weekly gain
• The euro pared a decline to trade around $1.04. Bunds and Italian bonds fell, led by the belly, and paring some of the recent gains. Money markets added slightly to ECB tightening wagers ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane said long-term inflation expectations appear well anchored
• The pound retreated, but was still near a three-month high against the dollar. Gilt outperformed bunds

In rates, Treasuries were modestly weaker Friday, led by the belly where rates are near their cheapest levels of the day into early US session. The 10-year rate is up around 4bp at ~3.73%. Bunds and gilts yields trade heavier and the selloff in European debt helped reverse early gains in Treasuries during the London session. US trading session is expected to be quiet after Thanksgiving holiday with an early close recommended for Friday at 2pm ET. The move in Treasury 10-year yields lags increase in comparable bund yields, which are more than 9bp higher on the day. Front-end of the Treasuries curve is steady, steepening 2s10s spread by ~2.4bp on the day. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany.

In commodities, oil rebounded throughout the European morning, with WTI crude close to $80 a barrel as the European Union weighed a higher-than-expected price cap on flows of Russian crude and slowdown concerns threaten the outlook for energy demand. The rise occurred despite a modest revival in the DXY’s fortunes to back above 106.00 and further China COVID woes. EU talks on the oil price cap look like they will resume later today, via WSJ’s Norman. Spot gold and silver have succumbed to the mentioned USD upside, with the yellow metal probing USD 1750/oz to the downside while metals are incrementally firmer given China stimulus.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany, as well as consumer confidence releases from France and Italy. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller and Visco.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,040.50
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 440.36
• MXAP down 0.4% to 154.28
• MXAPJ down 0.2% to 494.58
• Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,283.03
• Topix little changed at 2,018.00
• Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 17,573.58
• Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,101.69
• Sensex little changed at 62,287.70
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,259.48
• Kospi down 0.1% to 2,437.86
• German 10Y yield up 3.7% to 1.92%
• Euro down 0.2% at $1.0387
• Brent Futures up 1.5% to $86.64/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,749.68
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 105.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller warned that the main risk in the battle with record inflation is halting increases in interest rates too early
• Beijing’s streets are deserted and grocery delivery services are running out of capacity as rising Covid cases trigger lockdown-like restrictions across swathes of the Chinese capital
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doesn’t want to start a new transatlantic trade war and he’s worried France’s Emmanuel Macron may be stoking one
• Germany’s economy proved more resilient in the third quarter than initially reported, growing 0.4% on strong consumer spending. An initial reading of 0.3% already had been a positive surprise, defying the country’s struggles with surging energy costs and uncertainty stoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine
• Sweden’s household lending grew last month at the slowest pace in a decade as interest rates are soaring and the Nordic nation’s home prices are in their worst slump since the 1990s

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed with price action mostly rangebound amid the lack of any significant news catalysts to spur markets and the absence of a lead from Wall St due to the Thanksgiving holiday. ASX 200 gained with the index lifted by strength in the consumer-related and defensive sectors but with upside limited by losses in the commodity-related industries. Nikkei 225 was lacklustre amid pressure in bonds and as participants digested firmer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data in which Core CPI rose to its highest in four decades. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with underperformance in Hong Kong after the  government extended social distancing measures through to December 14th, while the mainland bourse was kept afloat despite the deteriorating COVID situation with sentiment helped by ongoing hopes of monetary policy easing.

Top Asian News

• China RRR cut for all banks is seen as likely, according to China Securities Journal. Subsequently, PBoC cuts banks Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 25bp, to keep liquidity ample. Effective from December 5th. Will strengthen the implementation of prudent policy. Focus on supporting the real economy and preventing flood-like stimulus. To release circa. CNY 500bln in long-term liquidity.
• UK Cabinet Office instructed central government departments to stop installing Chinese-made surveillance systems in sensitive sites due to security risks, according to FT.
• Beijing City reports 1,119 (prev. 863) COVID infections on November 24th as of 3pm, according to a health official; Guangzhou, China will not be put into lockdown, according to an official; the coming week will be key for COVID control; Nanjing City, China is to conduct mass COVID testing for five days from November 26th

European bourses are little changed but experienced a very modest negative bias initially, Euro Stoxx 50 Unch, in limited holiday-sapped trade. Stateside, futures are similar to European peers in terms of both the direction and magnitude of trade thus far, ES
+0.2. UK Black Friday volume of payment transactions have thus far been consistent with 2021, via Barclaycard Payments.

Top European News

• Spanish windfall tax on banks and large energy companies cleared the first hurdle, according to Reuters.
• ECB’s Lane says following a meeting-by-meeting approach to setting monetary policy will help ensure that our decisions are responsive to the evolving forward-looking assessments of the medium-term inflation outlook
• ECB insider says they see no realistic scenario where we reduce the balance sheet by much next year, via Econostream.

FX

• DXY lifted to a 106.20 peak at best, with much of the action occurring prior to the PBoC RRR cut.
• A cut which has applied further modest pressure to the Yuan, though it was already sensitive to the latest COVID controls/cases.
• Antipodeans are towards the bottom of the pile despite domestic data in a paring of the week’s RBNZ induced upside.
• At the other end of the spectrum, the EUR is the incremental outperformer though has made little ground above Unch. and is currently pivoting 1.04

Fixed Income

• Core benchmarks have slipped throughout the morning, with Bunds moving below yesterday’s trough though retain the 141.00 handle.
• EGBs were seemingly unaffected by ECB’s Lane who reaffirmed a meeting-by-meeting approach to policy.
• USTs in-fitting directionally but with magnitudes less pronounced given the shortened session for Thanksgiving.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent Jan’23 have exhibited grinding upside throughout the European morning, upside that has occurred despite a modest revival in the DXY’s fortunes to back above 106.00 and further China COVID woes.
• Saudi and Iraqi Energy Ministers stressed the importance of working within the OPEC+ framework and reiterated further measures to ensure stability of the oil market if necessary, according to a statement.
• EU talks on the oil price cap look like they will resume later today, via WSJ’s Norman.
• German Energy Regulator says he will consider gas storage levels to be critical if they are sub-40% on February 1st, currently all indicators are stable re. gas supply.
• Spot and have succumbed to the mentioned USD upside, with the yellow metal probing USD 1750/oz gold silver to the downside while metals are incrementally firmer given China stimulus

US Event Calendar

• Nothing scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The day after Thanksgiving always seems to mark the start of the home stretch towards Xmas in markets and even more today given it’s now only exactly a month away. If you can make it through today without getting a single Black Friday never-to-be-repeated sales offer then congratulations. Already this morning I’ve been offered on email a new bargain TV, cheap golf balls, knockdown outdoor winter clothing, 50% off panto tickets (I wouldn’t go if you paid me), and a big discount off an indoor golf simulator. I must admit the last of these held my interest for a bit longer than the others! On a more serious note, watch out for the usual Black Friday estimated US retail sales figures that will come out over the weekend. S&P have predicted that this year will see the first real adjusted fall in sales since 2009.

Unsurprisingly, it’s been a pretty subdued 24 hours for markets, with much lower volumes than usual due to the US holiday. Nevertheless, there were fresh signs elsewhere that risk appetite was continuing to grow among investors, aided by some positive data releases and further signals that central banks might not end up hiking as aggressively as feared. That was evident across multiple asset classes, and yesterday saw the STOXX 600 (+0.46%) advance to a 3-month high, yields on 10yr bunds (-7.9bps) fall to a 2-month low, whilst the dollar index (-0.23%) weakened to a 3-month low this morning as the risk premium buoying the greenback unwound yet further.

This more constructive tone was supported by more positive data releases from Europe that built on the upside data surprises of late. In particular, the release of the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany surprised on the upside with an 86.3 reading (vs. 85.0 expected), as did the expectations component at 80.0 (vs. 77.0 expected). That marks the second consecutive monthly improvement for both measures, and comes on the heels of the better-than-expected numbers from the flash PMIs and consumer confidence in recent days. Admittedly, none of these numbers are great in absolute terms, but given some of the fears for the European economy this winter after the Russian gas cut-off, they’re a lot better than many had expected until fairly recently.

Yesterday also saw the release of the latest ECB account from their October meeting. In their recap (link here), our European economists write that the accounts push back on an overly dovish interpretation to the October meeting, which is also supported by recent data outturns, along with public comments from Governing Council members. The minutes did say that “a few members expressed a preference for increasing the key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points” at the last meeting, but ultimately “a 75 basis points increase was judged to be an appropriate response in view of the protracted period of excessively high inflation and the risk that this might add to medium-term price pressures”. As a reminder, our economists expect the ECB to slow the pace of hikes to 50bps in December, following the 75bps pace in September and October, but it’s a close call.

European sovereign bonds rallied strongly against this backdrop, having also got a lift from the release of the Fed minutes the previous evening as well. Yields on 10yr bunds came down by -7.9bps to 1.84%, marking their lowest level in 2 months, just as yields on 10yr OATs (-9.4bps) and BTPs (-13.9bps) also fell. Those moves occurred in spite of remarks from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who said that “incoming data so far suggest that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited”. Indeed the front end in Europe didn’t rally as much meaning a deeper inversion for the German curve. Given the debate between 50bps and 75bps, the flash CPI reading for November out on Wednesday will be particularly important.

Equities rallied alongside bonds yesterday, and the STOXX 600 (+0.46%) hit a 3-month high after every sector group except tech moved higher on the day. The DAX (+0.78%) was a particular outperformer, hitting a 5-month high, and the CAC 40 (+0.42%) hit a 7-month high. Meanwhile in the US, markets were closed given the Thanksgiving holiday, but futures were open and remained in positive territory throughout the day, pointing to further gains for the S&P 500 from its 2-month high in the previous session. As we type this morning, contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are +0.25% and +0.44% higher, respectively. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr UST (-3.69 bps) have dipped to 3.66% in Asia trading after resuming trading with the 2yr yield slipping (-5.15 bps) to a one week low of 4.43%. A rare recent (albeit small) steepening.

Asian equity markets are struggling to end the week on a positive note as ongoing concerns over China’s daily Covid cases is hurting. They reported a record number of 31,987 new infections for Thursday surpassing Wednesday’s record of 29,754 cases thus increasing pressure on Beijing’s zero-tolerance approach to the virus as the outbreak worsens. The country is persistently registering high caseloads despite authorities implementing several restrictions across its major cities.

As I type, the Hang Seng (-0.86%) is leading losses with the Nikkei (-0.30%) and the KOSPI (-0.12%) also trading in negative territory. Bucking the trend this morning are ironically Chinese stocks with the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%) and the CSI (+0.45%) trading up.

Elsewhere in Asia, early morning data showed that core consumer prices in Japan’s capital rose +3.6% y/y in November (v/s +3.5% expected & October’s +3.4%), its fastest annual pace in 40 years driven mostly by electricity bills and food prices with a weak yen pushing the cost of imports higher. Overall Tokyo CPI inflation rose +3.8% y/y in November, up from last month’s +3.5% and also at its fastest pace in 40 years. With the city’s inflation staying above the BOJ’s 2% target for the 6th straight month, the data is signalling broadening inflationary pressure.

Back to yesterday and here in the UK, gilts noticeably underperformed after a couple of BoE officials made some hawkish remarks on policy, with the 10yr yield up by +2.3bps on the day. First, Deputy Governor Ramsden said that he was “materially less confident” that unemployment would rise as fast as the Monetary Policy Report forecasts by end-2023, which would suggest that inflationary pressures would therefore be stronger. Furthermore, he pointed out that most of the fiscal tightening measures in last week’s Autumn Statement didn’t come into effect until April 2025, so would have little effect on inflation over the MPC’s three-year forecast horizon. Then we heard from Catherine Mann, who’s also one of the more hawkish MPC members, who said that “it is more costly to get inflation down once medium-term inflation expectations have become out of control”. Sterling continued to advance against that backdrop, surpassing the $1.21 mark in trading yesterday for the first time since August.

Staying on central banks, Sweden’s Riksbank delivered a 75bps hike as expected, taking the policy rate up to a post-2008 high of 2.5%. In their forecast, they showed further rises in the policy rate at the start of 2023 that took it to just beneath 3%, and their statement said that the risk that “current high inflation will become entrenched is still substantial”. The Swedish Krona ended the day up +0.4% against the US Dollar, although this was aided in part by dollar weakness.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany, as well as consumer confidence releases from France and Italy. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller and Visco.

Confirming recent rumors and media speculation, late on Fruday after the close of markets, China’s central bank announced it cut the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve for the second time this year on Friday to shore up the coronavirus-hit economy, a move which analysts said is “not too late”, but also that Beijing needs to roll-out much more supportive policies to kick start to contracting economy.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said the 0.25% cut of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to 7.8% will take place on December 5 and inject around 500 billion yuan (US$70 billion) in long-term liquidity.

The PBOC last cut the RRR in April when the central bank announced a 0.25% point reduction following 0.5% points cuts in both July and December last year. Friday’s announcement followed a State Council meeting on Tuesday chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, who said that it was a “critical time” to consolidate the economic recovery for the fourth quarter.

The PBOC said that the move was aimed at maintaining “reasonable and sufficient liquidity” to support the economy at a “reasonable” growth rate, while reiterating that it would not engage in “flood-like” stimulus.

“[The RRR cut will] increase the long-term stable funding sources of financial institutions, enhance the capital allocation capabilities of financial institutions, and support industries and small, medium and micro enterprises that have been severely affected by the epidemic,” the central bank added.

The widely telegraphed (and in some cases, mocked) decision, comes at a time when the world’s second-largest economy is on the verge of contraction and is facing a new round of coronavirus disruptions, with daily infections having already jumped to more than 31,000.

“The impact of the Covid-19 outbreaks is already quite damaging. The RRR cut is reasonable,” said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING, quoted by SCMP. She added that the RRR cut was “not too late”, but that it needs to be accompanied by other less conventional monetary policy to boost its effectiveness, especially when it comes to tackling financing problems for small retailers and companies operating in the catering sector. Pang added that the PBOC could instruct banks to lend more, while the central bank could also increase loan to banks via relending programmes to boost funding to small- and medium-sized firms.

Others were more skeptical: efforts by the Chinese government to support the economy will be encouraging in the short-term for equities as it shifts “expectations in a positive direction,” even though the outlook is cloudy beyond that, said Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Chinese central bank’s decision to reduce the reserve requirement ratio for most lenders by 25 basis points will have limited impact on the economy, because it will not be as easy as in the past with the Chinese economy in a “different place” structurally
“The credit impulse does not have the same impact as before because the typical receiver  — real estate — is dealing with financial stress.”

China’s economy has been under pressure since October as exports and retail sales fell amid weak business and consumer confidence. “Epidemic prevention is now the biggest constraint on the economy,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group. “But the RRR cut is better late than never. The move may now also encourage banks to lend to the real estate sector.”

The cut will also save around 5.6 billion yuan per year for banks in terms of their funding costs, the PBOC added. But Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the size of the cut shows that China’s monetary policy has been constrained by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases, which have weakened the yuan significantly since the start of the year.

“[The RRR cut] helps marginally, but the main problem for the economy is not the monetary policy,” Zhang said, adding that more action is needed to minimise the impact of China’s virus control measures.

China has eased its containment measures, including cutting quarantine requirements for international arrivals, but there is still no timetable for a complete exit from Beijing’s zero-Covid policy.

“The reduction in the required reserve ratio that the PBOC just announced will help banks follow through on a directive to defer loan repayments from firms struggling with widening lockdown restrictions,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

“Market interest rates may also edge down as a result, even if that’s not the main goal. But few firms or households are willing to commit to new borrowing in this uncertain environment. A small fall in interest rates wouldn’t make a difference.”

Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, and the worldwide outcry over the billions of dollars wiped off the platform, are likely to trigger a massive regulatory reaction that would further erode citizens’ economic freedoms without addressing the issues that fostered demand for an alternative to the fiat dollar, economists have told The Epoch Times.

An international scandal has embroiled FTX and its founder, 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried, in the wake of the firm’s crash earlier this month precipitated by a run on the exchange. Since then, reports have emerged that Alameda Research, a crypto hedge fund established by Bankman-Fried, was trading billions of dollars from FTX accounts without clients’ knowledge.

FTX has filed for bankruptcy protection, Bankman-Fried has stepped down from his role as CEO, and John J. Ray III, the former CEO of Enron, has taken over the insolvent company with a plan to sell it off if a successful restructuring is impossible. An estimated 1 million customers and other investors are facing total losses of billions of dollars.

FTX, in a recent court filing, said it owes $3.1 billion to its top 50 creditors, and its collapse has rocked the $839 billion global crypto market. On Nov. 22, the trading value of bitcoin tumbled to $15,480, a two-year low, before edging up slightly to $15,909.

Ray has claimed that subsidiaries of FTX in the United States and abroad “have solvent balance sheets, responsible management and valuable franchises,” but so far the shock and alarm over the exchange’s implosion have shown no sign of abating.

Meanwhile, a number of big names in sports and entertainment, such as comedian Larry David, NBA star Stephen Curry, and quarterback Tom Brady, have become the subject of a probe by the Texas State Securities Board over their public endorsements of FTX. The celebrities have also become the targets of class action lawsuits filed by disgruntled investors, with more expected in the days to come.

Madoff’s Heirs

Observers of the FTX blowup are extremely candid about the severity of the exchange’s mismanagement and the recent historical analogs for its unraveling.

Wayne Davis, a partner at the law firm Tannenbaum Halpern Syracuse & Hirschtritt in New York, drew a parallel with one of the most notorious cases of fraud in the history of finance, that of the Bernard L. Madoff, whose Ponzi scheme bilked some 4,800 clients of $64.8 billion. In both cases, clients were insufficiently attentive to the lack of internal controls, he suggested.

“Madoff comes to mind. Perhaps not the same criminal intent components, but there are certainly similarities as far as investor/customer enthusiasm notwithstanding signs of lax compliance and risk management engagement,” Tannenbaum told The Epoch Times.

Other observers see parallels in earlier events in the development of banking and currencies. Charles Steele, chair of the department of economics, business, and accounting at Hillsdale College in Michigan, said that the blow-up of FTX reminds him of the first stock market bubble and financial crisis to afflict the world, namely the collapse of France’s Banque Royale in 1720.

“Scotsman John Law set up a central bank for the French monarchy that began paying enormous returns on its shares and its sister Mississippi Company. It was heralded as a great triumph of new financial technology, a nearly miraculous breakthrough, but in fact, it was effectively what we now call a Ponzi scheme,” Steele told The Epoch Times.

“In the case of FTX, it appears that Samuel Bankman-Fried was heralded as a crypto genius, but was simply engaged in a lot of shady business disguised as ‘philanthropy,’ using other people’s money. He was apparently the second-largest donor to the Democrat Party campaigns in the 2022 elections, and also was positioning himself to be a major player in the design of federal regulations for cryptocurrency,” Steele added.

The Likely Reaction

The magnitude of the FTX scandal—the amounts of money involved and the number of people suffering possibly permanent financial harm—means that its ramifications are likely to continue to affect all players in the crypto space in coming weeks and months, said Jeffrey Guernsey, a professor of economics at Cedarville University in Ohio. The very lack of a fixed value that made crypto investing exciting for some people may also be among its singular vulnerabilities in the face of emboldened regulators, he suggested.

“While this thought does not originate with me, it is clear that crypto is not a currency, if one attribute of a currency is a stable value. The collapse of FTX certainly puts the entire asset class under review and question and may lead to calls for governmental regulation,” Guernsey said.

Given the priorities of the Biden administration, the notably harsher tone of federal guidance and rulemaking since he took office, and officials’ well-documented hostility to financial innovation and decentralization, the reaction from regulators is likely to be extremely draconian and may even cross lines that the regulators have hitherto respected, observers say. But whether the coming crackdown will address concerns of fiat currency that helped feed demand for alternative exchanges, platforms, and markets is a different question.

“I expect that this debacle will lead to greatly increased federal regulation of cryptocurrencies,” Steele said.

In Steele’s view, the fiasco is likely to speed up the crafting and implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Steele noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is collaborating with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on a joint study, Project Hamilton, whose objective is to devise a CBDC for the United States.

While ignored by many people, this is one of the most potentially concerning recent developments given the unprecedented powers that it stands to place in the hands of a central regulatory authority, he said. While some might initially welcome a CBDC, it could have unforeseen consequences and ultimately could help extend the role of government into people’s lives in ways to which they are so far unaccustomed.

“I think a CBDC is very dangerous, because it would enable a central bank or government to monitor, control, and record every exchange made with the currency. If, for example, a government decided it did not want citizens buying, say, firearms, or perhaps donating funds to a political candidate, the central bank could prevent the transaction. Alternatively, it could have a permanent record of a citizen’s purchases and use these to establish a social credit score for the person,” Steele said.

“In this way, a CBDC could become the ultimate tool of social engineering and tyranny. A true cryptocurrency keeps transactions anonymous, which is one of its great benefits. Governments tend to dislike tools that give citizens such privacy,” he added.

Legitimate Demand

The tragedy of the FTX scandal and the possible meltdown of other crypto entrepreneurs as more and more people panic and seek to redeem their assets is that such platforms arose partly in response to an understandable demand for alternatives to the fiat dollar, or a dollar whose value and use flow from government dictates and are unrelated to any external commodity or asset such as gold. The heavy-handed reaction expected in the coming months as a consequence of FTX’s blow-up is unlikely to take account of this truth.

That’s the view of Brian Domitrovic, a professor of economic history at Sam Houston State University, who sees negative long-term consequences to the country’s abandonment of the gold standard in 1971.

“I don’t think there’s any kind of broad popular support for a fiat dollar, a non-gold dollar. There hasn’t been since 1971. A lot of popular dissatisfaction with this has been very clearly expressed,” Domitrovic told The Epoch Times.

“The Federal Reserve is not a popular institution at all. I think there’s just a general sense on the part of the public that we should have something more like the classical monetary system that we used to have. And I think crypto has tapped into that more effectively than anything since the end of the gold standard,” he added.

The New Non-Fiat

From a certain standpoint, cryptocurrencies took over where gold left off following the shift away from the gold standard, Domitrovic said. Like gold, it is limited in supply and requires mining, though of course not the same kind of mining. In the case of the former commodity, the mining is a process of physical extraction of a substance from the earth, and in the latter, it is mathematical and theoretical in nature.

Despite the differences, both currencies have the effect of eroding centralized power and oversight by making institutions such as the Federal Reserve less integral to the functioning of the economy, Domitrovic said.

“Bitcoin aspires to mimic gold in many respects. This is what you had when money was not a creation of the Federal Reserve,” he added.

Much of today’s demand for bitcoin and kindred currencies flow from a widespread desire to go back to how things were before 1971, Domitrovic argued.

“Before 1971, the United States led the world in becoming the greatest economy ever, with hundreds of millions of people living at high levels of prosperity. There is a very strong reason why people associate the pre-1971 period with a magnificent achievement economically,” he added.

In this analysis, the federal government has sought to maintain centralized oversight over the economy and the level of prosperity attainable by citizens partly by not allowing crypto to compete with the fiat dollar.

“Even if there is fraud, I’m still going to lay a lot of the blame at the feet of the government and the official definition of policy, because they’re not taking crypto as seriously as they should. They consider it non-money,” he said.

Read more here…

European climate cultists upped the ante in their increasingly deranged war on fossil fuels on Thursday, bringing flight operations at Berlin Brandenburg Airport to a complete standstill for an hour and a half. 

Reuters reports that activists from the Letzte Generation (Last Generation) group entered the airport from both the north and south ends, with some glueing themselves to the tarmac. According to the group, others rode bikes around the taxiways. The trespass began just after 4 pm local time. 

“The plane is not a means of transport for ordinary people,” tweeted the group. “Most people – around 80% – have never flown. One affluent percent of the population is responsible for about half of all flight-related emissions.”

Letzte Generation demanded that the public stop using airplanes to travel, and tweeted video of its members entering the airport through a hole cut in a chain-link fence:

+++ Flugverkehr am BER eingestellt +++

Das Flugzeug ist kein Verkehrsmittel für Normalbürger:innen. Die meisten Menschen – etwa 80% – sind noch nie geflogen.
Ein wohlhabendes Prozent der Bevölkerung verursacht allein etwa die Hälfte der flugbedingten Emissionen. pic.twitter.com/Avfg5tDeqw

— Letzte Generation (@AufstandLastGen) November 24, 2022

Police detained the trespassers, but not before they caused misery for an estimated 3,000 to 4,000 travelers to and from Berlin’s primary commercial airport. In addition to those stuck in the airport or on airplanes awaiting takeoff 15 flights to Berlin were diverted to Düsseldorf, Leipzig/Halle and Dresden. 

The same group is behind many attention-seeking stunts across Europe in recent months, such as throwing food on famed works of art, disrupting a Hamburg orchestra concert by gluing themselves to the conductor’s podium, blocking road traffic, and vandalizing businesses and government buildings with orange paint. 

Letzte Generation activists have covered Monet’s Les Meules in mash potato.

The protestors then glued themselves to the floor at the Barberini Museum in Potsdam. It is unclear if the painting was damaged. https://t.co/Av2TSbR4iI pic.twitter.com/myup95RBtm

— Sky News (@SkyNews) October 23, 2022

Local authorities condemned the latest stunt: 

Brandenburg Interior Minister Michael Stübgen (CDU) described the action as a “dangerous intervention in air traffic.” It was “a serious crime” that “in the worst case even endangers human life. There’s no justification for that.” He called the activists criminals. — German broadcaster RBB

Berlin police said protestors showed “they are ready to commit crimes and that the democratic framework is of no importance to this organization.”

At least one passenger stuck on an airplane maintained his sense of humor: 

Ryanair have also kindly portrayed the harrowing effects of climate change by ensuring the heat on the plane resembles a Mediterranean summer in the year 2050.

— Neil Delaney (@neilpdelaney) November 24, 2022

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A group of bipartisan senators is urging the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with advanced MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that would give Kyiv longer-range capability.

The Biden administration has been hesitant to send the drones due to the risk of escalation with Russia and concerns that the sensitive technology in the drones could end up in the wrong hands.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the Biden administration has decided not to provide the drones, although other reporting disputed that claim and said a final decision hadn’t been made.

In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, 16 senators expressed “concern” over the reports that said the administration has declined to send the MQ-1C. The senators asked the administration to give “careful reconsideration” to the Ukrainian request.

The letter was led by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and was signed by many members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, including ranking member James Inhofe (R-OK).

The senators said the MQ-1C and other long-range capabilities would provide “Ukraine additional lethality needed to eject Russian forces and regain occupied territory.”

Providing MQ-1Cs would be a major escalation in US military aid to Kyiv as the drones can be armed with powerful hellfire missiles and can fly for up to 30 hours. The drones would give Ukraine the capability to strike targets inside Russian territory.

The US has provided other long-range arms under the condition they wouldn’t be used to target Russian territory, with the exception of Crimea.

Officials told CNN last week that the US was considering modifying the MQ-1Cs to change the technology of some components so it wouldn’t pose as much of a risk if they end up in Russia’s hands. The report said the effort was being led by the US Army, but any modifications would take time.