Russia Unleashes Biggest Aerial Attack On Ukraine Since Opening Days Of War
Ukraine has said on Friday Russia launched the largest single day of airstrikes ever conducted throughout nearly two years of war. At least 18 people were reported killed, and over a hundred wounded after several Ukrainian cities were pummeled in drone and missile attacks.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces cited that up to 158 missiles and drones were launched, describing that this was a “record number” and the “most massive missile attack” of the conflict, excluding the very opening few days of the invasion. This was said include ballistic and supersonic missiles, launched from air and sea. Ukraine’s military claimed its anti-air defenses downed and intercepted the majority of these.
President Volodymyr Zelensky also said, “Today Russia hit us with almost everything it has in its arsenal.” The attacks began overnight into Friday, with large explosions rocking Kiev, Dnipro, and places like Odessa in the south and Kharkiv in the east. Inbound projectiles were also seen as far from the front lines as Lviv, in the country’s far west.
“It’s been a long time since we have seen so many enemy targets on our monitors in all regions and all directions,” Ukrainian air force spokesman Yurii Ihnat told a television broadcast. “Everything was being fired.”
Ukrainian officials said that among places hit were shopping centers, apartment blocks, schools and a hospital.
Widespread rescue operations continued into the day Friday:
There was a strong smell of burning plastic as firefighters wearing oxygen masks tackled the blaze and a huge column of black smoke billowed into the sky, an AFP reporter saw.
There were believed to be 10 people trapped under the rubble, said the head of the city’s military administration, Sergiy Popko.
AFP journalists also saw smoke near the building of Lukyanivska metro station close to the city center. Popko said the metro station had been damaged but it reopened later in the day.
Scenes in the far Western city of Lviv, which is rarely touched by the war, were as follows based on Ukrainian officials:
In Lviv, one person was killed and 15 wounded by drones and missiles that damaged high-rise blocks of flats and two schools, the interior ministry said.
An image released by the emergency services showed window frames blown out in a nine-story block of flats.
As expected, Ukraine is referencing the large-scale aerial assault as reason for allies to urgently authorize more defense funds for 2024. Tens of billions are currently being held up in US Congress and the European Union.
A maternity ward, educational facilities, a shopping mall, multi-story residential buildings and private homes, a commercial storage, and a parking lot. Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities.
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 29, 2023
Zelensky aide Andriy Yermak said the war-ravaged country needs “more support and strength to stop this terror” while US ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink immediately emphasized “Ukraine needs funding now”.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described Friday’s assault as “yet another cowardly and indiscriminate” attack on civilians. The EU has been seeking to sidestep Hungary as it has sought to pass some €50 billion in funding, which remains blocked.
Meanwhile, Orthodox Church Christmas is around the corner, and it’s as yet unclear whether there might be a hoped-for “Christmas truce” between Russia and Ukraine – as was speculated last year (but didn’t really materialize). Orthodox Christians in both countries celebrate the holiday on January 7 (according to when Dec.25 appears on the ecclesiastical/or Julian calendar).
Democrat Secretary Of State Kicks Trump Off Maine Ballot, Takes MSM ‘Victory Lap’
Update (0800ET): Sure enough, the usual suspects in the mainstream media were more than happy to invite Maine Secretary of State on air to discuss her “brave” decision to unilaterally remove Republicans’ democratic rights
Bellows appeared on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360”, stating that not only was she “mindful” in her decision and its “unprecedented” nature, but no presidential candidate had ever “engaged in insurrection” before.
“So — again, I am so mindful – and I said this in my decision – that it is unprecedented. No secretary of state has ever deprived a presidential candidate of ballot access based on Section Three of the 14th Amendment. But no presidential candidate has ever engaged in insurrection and been disqualified under Section Three of the 14th Amendment,” Bellows stated.
In an earlier press release regarding the decision, Bellows claimed Trump had “used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power,” in regards to the Jan. 6 events.
The secretary of state additionally alleged the former president “was aware of the likelihood for violence and at least initially supported its use given he both encouraged it with incendiary rhetoric and took no timely action to stop it.”
And then she took to MSNBC to explain that to explain why she “had no other choice” but to disqualify former President Trump:
As @KanekoaTheGreat posted on X, Bellows gleefully tells MSDNC “I could not, unfortunately—or fortunately—wait for the Supreme Court to make a decision.”
After disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of Republican voters in Maine, Bellows boasts about how proud she is of Maine’s voter participation rate.
“I smile because we were number one for voter turnout per capita in 2022…
We’re really proud of our national leadership in voter participation and citizen engagement in elections and in the democratic process.”
Democracy means unelected Democrats unilaterally decide that millions of Republicans cannot vote for the leading Republican presidential candidate.
The United States normally sanctions Banana Republics for doing what Democrats are doing right now.
* * *
A day after former president Trump’s lawyers demanded the Maine secretary of state recuse herself from her upcoming decision on the former president’s ballot eligibility under the 14th Amendment – citing her past statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol riot; Shenna Bellows – a Democrat – has kicked Trump off the state’s primary ballot.
The letter from Trump’s lawyers seeking Bellows’ recusal cites two social media posts Bellows issued the day Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial, which concerned the Capitol riot.
“The Jan 6 insurrection was an unlawful attempt to overthrow the results of a free and fair election. Today 57 Senators including King & Collins found Trump guilty. That’s short of impeachment but nevertheless an indictment. The insurrectionists failed, and democracy prevailed,” Bellows wrote on Twitter, the platform now known as X.
The letter also takes aim at a post Bellows issued on the one-year anniversary of Jan. 6, in which she reposted a news report highlighting Bellows’s efforts to protect election workers.
“One year after the violent insurrection, it’s important to do all we can to safeguard our elections,” Bellows wrote.
Thus, the lawyers argued, Bellows “has already passed judgment” on Trump’s “core assumptions.”
But, as The Hill reports, unlike other states, where plaintiffs have sued over Trump’s eligibility in court, Maine’s system first allows the secretary of state to weigh in – unilaterally, Judge Dredd-style.
As she explains, ‘she is the law!’
Shenna Bellows, who was never popularly elected statewide, says the usual rules of evidence don’t apply to her newly-invented procedure, which is governed by Maine administrative law, therefore authorizing her to accept the Jan 6 Committee Report as admissible probative evidence pic.twitter.com/LBQwrWSbQ2
Bellows determined that the former president could not run for office due to his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
She argued his actions violated the 14th Amendment.
Maine is now the second state to bar the president citing 14th Amendment claims, following Colorado’s Supreme Court decision.
As we noted previously, the question will ultimately be decided by the US Supreme Court, which constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley says “will be overturned because it is wrong on the history and the language of the 14th Amendment.”
As I have previously written, the disqualification of Trump is based on the use of a long-dormant provision in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
After the Civil War, House members were outraged to see Alexander Stephens, the Confederate vice president, seeking to take the oath with an array of other former Confederate senators and military officers.
They had all previously taken the same oath and then violated it to join a secession movement that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans.
That was a true rebellion.
January 6, 2021, was a riot.
As a reminder, Maine has only four electoral votes but it’s one of two states to split them, and Trump won one of Maine’s electors in 2020.
Caden Pearson reports at The Epoch Times that the Trump campaign issued a statement denouncing the decision, vowing to move quickly to fight the Maine secretary of state’s “atrocious decision” in state court to prevent it from taking effect.
“The Maine Secretary of State is a former ACLU attorney, a virulent leftist, and a hyper-partisan Biden-supporting Democrat who has decided to interfere in the presidential election on behalf of Crooked Joe Biden,” said Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung.
“We are witnessing, in real-time, the attempted theft of an election and the disenfranchisement of the American voter. Democrats in blue states are recklessly and un-Constitutionally suspending the civil rights of the American voters by attempting to summarily remove President Trump’s name from the ballot.
“Make no mistake, these partisan election interference efforts are a hostile assault on American democracy. Biden and the Democrats simply do not trust the American voter in a free and fair election and are now relying on the force of government institutions to protect their grip on power,” he added.
Mr. Cheung noted that state and federal courts in Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island, and West Virginia, along with 10 more federal jurisdictions, have rejected “these bad-faith, bogus 14th Amendment ballot challenges.”
“We know both the Constitution and the American people are on our side in this fight. President Trump’s dominating campaign has a commanding lead in the polls that has dramatically expanded as Crooked Joe Biden’s presidency continues to fail,” the Trump campaign spokesperson added.
“We will quickly file a legal objection in state court to prevent this atrocious decision in Maine from taking effect, and President Trump will never stop fighting to Make America Great Again.”
Jason Meister, a member of President Trump’s campaign advisory panel in New York, told The Epoch Times that the Maine action would fail.
“These 14th amendment challenges are last gasping breaths of a dying party,” he said.
Isn’t it the very definition of ‘tyranny‘ that one person unilaterally decides that the residents of Maine do not deserve democracy?
“Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows has decided to add her name to the ignoble list of Democratic officials claiming to defend democracy by preventing its exercise for millions of Trump supporters.“
Eliminating a political rival from the ballot unravels the core of a constitutional republic, driven by a repressive government’s fear that their misconduct will be exposed, jeopardizing their fragile grip on authority.
All of which means, as Ben Shapiro wrote earlier, that “2024 is going to be the most insane and ugly presidential election in American history. And that’s saying a lot, since 1968 and 2020 are both years that existed. Under what circumstances, precisely, would Democrats accept the result of a Trump election? Under what circumstances, precisely, would Republicans accept the result of a Biden election?”
“The weaponization of the legal system creates an all-consuming fire, burning everything in its path. There is simply no 2024 result likely to result in anything but complete—and perhaps violent—chaos at this point.”
Socialist Protests Erupt In Argentina As Milei Implements “Austerity” Cuts
In a scene that is probably a small taste of what is to come, socialist activists and workers unions carrying images of Che Guevara and Eva Peron converged on Buenos Aires to protest Javier Milei’s impending “austerity” cuts. The cuts are a part of Milei’s sweeping economic measures that will erase or rewrite over 300 rules regulating and restricting private enterprise within the nation.
Deregulation, protesters say, will pave the way for big business interests while reducing welfare programs and protections for the public. The protests are of course built upon a number of assumptions and are reactionary at best, given that Milei has been in office for a mere two weeks.
“The goal is to start along the path to rebuilding the country… and start to undo the huge number of regulations that have held back and prevented economic growth,” Milei said in a televised speech from the presidential palace.
The protests and anger from leftist elements within Argentina illustrate the numerous pitfalls of allowing socialism to be rooted within any country for any length of time. Though Milei’s opposition often argues that Argentina has never been “truly socialist,” the government policies that have been in place for decades certainly are. It is a classic far-left deflection: Whenever a socialist government or economy fails, claim it wasn’t real socialism. Rinse, and repeat.
Any effort to free up markets within such a system immediately faces an array of hurdles. Opponents argue that the reforms will destroy the economy (the economy which has already been destroyed by socialism) and that the people will suffer without entitlement programs (which the country cannot afford). Government handouts and welfare promises create a deep and dangerous addiction within a population.
The country’s national debt has climbed to over $400 billion US dollars and they are struggling with a $44 billion IMF loan. However, the real threat is their triple digit inflation which is igniting a mounting economic crisis. It is the same crisis that has resurfaced multiple times since the crash of 1990.
Latin America’s third-biggest economy is on its knees after decades of debt and financial mismanagement, with annual inflation at 140 percent and 40 percent of Argentines living in poverty.
Milei’s first action has been to reduce government waste, cutting over 5000 bureaucratic workers with more layoffs pending. He is also working to cut a number of public works programs and to curb overall spending. His announcement of huge cuts to state subsidies on fuel and transportation are the likely cause of the recent protests, with millions of citizens heavily reliant on government assistance.
The real test will be his efforts to introduce free market enterprise and to boost the Peso while making the shift as painless as possible. Even the most optimistic analyst expectations suggest a chaotic downturn within the economy during the policy adjustments, which will no doubt be exploited by pro-socialists. Milei’s opponents were already declaring his efforts a failure after only a few days in office.
California’s secretary of state has kept former President Donald Trump on the state’s 2024 presidential primary ballot despite the contrary decisions in Colorado and Maine that have sought to remove him.
On Dec. 28, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, certified the list of candidates ahead of the March 5, 2024, Presidential Primary Election ballot.
Ms. Weber’s decision comes after being confronted with calls from the state’s lieutenant governor, Eleni Kounalakis, to remove President Trump from the ballot.
In a letter sent to California’s top election official on Dec. 20, one day after the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to disqualify President Trump from the state’s ballot, Ms. Kounalakis urged Ms. Weber to explore any and all legal options to ensure voters in California would not be able to cast a ballot for him.
California’s lieutenant governor, citing the Colorado Supreme Court’s Dec. 19 decision, accused President Trump of insurrection during the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the Capitol. She concluded that this disqualifies him from holding office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
The Colorado Republican Party has appealed the 4–3 ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, which is composed entirely of Democrat appointees, to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The nation’s highest court is expected to be the final arbiter on whether President Trump is eligible to hold office.
The decision by Ms. Weber regarding California’s ballot came just hours after Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, whose office oversees elections in the state, ruled that President Trump cannot appear on the primary ballot in that state, citing the same 14th Amendment clause at the center of President Trump’s eligibility question now before the U.S. Supreme Court.
Ms. Bellows paused her decision pending appeals to the state courts.
Maine Decision
In her 34-page ruling, Maine’s secretary of state, Ms. Bellows, argued that President Trump “over the course of several months and culminating on January 6, 2021, used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power.”
Ms. Bellows concluded that President Trump’s primary petition is invalid and he is not qualified to hold the office of president.
President Trump’s campaign has vowed to appeal Ms. Bellows’ decision to Maine’s state courts.
“We are witnessing, in real-time, the attempted theft of an election and the disenfranchisement of the American voter,” spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement. “Make no mistake, these partisan election interference efforts are a hostile assault on American democracy.”
“We know both the Constitution and the American people are on our side in this fight,” he continued. “President Trump’s dominating campaign has a commanding lead in the polls that has dramatically expanded as Crooked Joe Biden’s presidency continues to fail.”
Legal challenges filed in about half the states trying to disqualify President Trump from the ballots in 2024 have largely been dismissed by federal and state judges on procedural and jurisdictional grounds.
Thursday’s decision by California’s top election official means President Trump will now face off against rivals including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
According to polling tracked by RealClearPolling.com, President Trump maintains a significant lead among his rivals.
‘Inevitable Political Punditry’
Prior to California certifying President Trump’s inclusion on the state ballot, the state’s lieutenant governor, Ms. Kounalakis, had told the secretary of state, “This decision is about honoring the rule of law in our country and protecting the fundamental pillars of our democracy.”
“California must stand on the right side of history. California is obligated to determine if Trump is ineligible for the California ballot,” she continued, adding that the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision should serve as a basis for a “similar decision” in the Golden State.
In her letter, Ms. Kounalakis stated that there would be “inevitable political punditry” regarding a decision to remove President Trump—who has maintained a significant lead in 2024 GOP presidential polls—from the ballot.
However, she stressed that the issue was “not a matter of political gamesmanship.”
“This is a dire matter that puts at stake the sanctity of our constitution and our democracy,” she concluded.
Ms. Weber responded to Ms. Kounalakis’s letter in a message of her own on Dec. 22, in which she stressed that the issue of keeping or removing President Trump from the ballot is of particular concern to the public, meaning she is obligated to address it “within legal parameters” and in the “best interests of all California voters.”
“It is incumbent upon my office to ensure that any action undertaken regarding any candidate’s inclusion or omission from our ballots be grounded firmly in the laws and processes in place in California and our Constitution,” she wrote.
Futures Flat On Last Trading Day Of 2023 As All Time High Beckons
US futures once again flirted between gains and losses on the last trading day of the year, but with the all time high in the S&P just 0.3% away, it is virtually guaranteed that the script calls for a new record to close out 2023 because that’s how centrally-planned markets work. And who knows, maybe this time BIden’s approval rating will actually increase; after all that’s what all of this is about.
As of 8:00am, S&P futures traded unchanged after rising just a few points away from its all-time high on Thursday, extending its 2023 advance to nearly 25%. Nasdaq 100 futures, which just refuse to give dip buyers any opportunity to BTFD, were up about 0.1%, with the underlying index already posting its best year since 1999, the year before the first tech bubble burst. The Bloomberg Dollar index first dipped then rose amid thin liquidity in currency markets. It’s on track for the worst annual loss since the onset of the pandemic on expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively in 2024. Treasuries extended to Thursday’s losses, with the 10-year yield rising three basis points. Global bonds, meanwhile, remained on track for their biggest two-month gain on record.
In premarket trading, Fisker jumped 8.3% after the EV maker said it grew deliveries by over 300% from 3Q to 4Q. Lyft drops 2.8% after an insider sold shares in the company and as Nomura cut the stock to reduce from neutral. Bakkt Holdings rises 5.7% to lead an advance in crypto stock peers, with Bitcoin gaining.
The market is on pace for its second straight monthly gain of more than 3%, extending first annual gain since 2020, after Federal Reserve policymakers appeared to affirm that they’re unlikely to raise interest rates further and will pivot to easing in 2024.
The MSCI All Country World Index has rallied about 20% this year, despite concerns about a market that’s flashing overbought signals raising concern about a pullback, with some observers saying that traders have gone too far, too fast in pricing in a dovish Fed pivot. For now, however, the year-end meltup rally holds at least one more day… what happens on Tuesday is a different story.
“The notion that the major central banks have surely done enough to quell the inflationary surge of 2022-23 is powering the rally,” said Brian Barish, chief investment officer of Cambiar Investors LLC.
“It’s not hard to imagine new things for the markets to be concerned by, such as elections, the sizable bond funding requirements of the US government, and/or any notion that inflation resurges anew. But for now, there’s not much news and not a lot of sellers.”
“The market shows signs of fatigue and undoubtedly needs to consolidate,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, on Thursday. “But as long as participation remains broad, the bullish sentiment should carry the indexes as they navigate geopolitical and domestic scenarios, and an overarching positive consensus that 2024 will be a similarly strong year.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.3%, capping a 13% advance for the year. Trading volumes were low, with a number of regional markets including Germany and the UK closing early on Friday. Germany’s DAX Index ended the year 20% higher in its best performance since 2019, outpacing the wider European benchmark. The German index peaked at a record high on Dec. 11 this year. while the broader Stoxx 600 index is up 13% in 2023. The DAX’s biggest gainers by points were software firm SAP and industrial giant Siemens. Pharmaceutical giants Bayer and Merck KGaA were the biggest laggards.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell in the last trading session of 2023, led by losses in Hong Kong, rounding out a year of underperformance for the region versus global shares amid trepidation over China’s economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%, with Tencent and Xiaomi among the biggest drags. Key gauges were also down in Japan, Australia and India, while stocks advanced in Singapore. Markets in South Korea and Thailand were closed for holidays.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid as much as 0.6% after climbing over the previous two days. The measure of Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks is on track for an unprecedented fourth straight year of declines as Beijing’s stimulus measures have yet to spur meaningful recovery. Chinese equities have been the biggest drags on the regional index this year. The MSCI Asian gauge has gained a bit more than 8% in 2023, while the MSCI AC World Index has jumped 20% with a boost from soaring US tech shares. US hedge funds have “almost unwound” their 2022 purchases of Chinese firms’ American depository receipts this year, Morgan Stanley strategists including Gilbert Wong wrote in a note. US-based long-only managers, meanwhile, have slowed their selling of Chinese ADRs “significantly” compared to the last two years, they added.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched up 0.1% as the dollar gained against most Group-of-10 peers; Swedish krona and Australian dollar led losses, while the Swiss franc and Norwegian krone led gains. EUR/USD dropped 0.1% to as low as 1.1046 after the pace of Spanish inflation failed to slow in December; Euro remains on track for three straight weeks of gains against the dollar. USD/NOK fell as much as 0.7% and EUR/NOK as much as 0.8% before partially paring the drop, after Norway’s central bank announced a cut to foreign currency purchases in January.
In rates, treasuries were under pressure to begin the year’s last US session, paced by declines for most European bond markets. Treasuries bear-steepened with two-year yields up 1bp to 4.29% and 10-year yields up 4bps to 3.88% but still inside weekly ranges that included lowest levels since at least July for all tenors. Sifma has recommended a 2pm close for USD-denominated cash bonds; IG credit-issuance slate has been blank for several days, with January expected to bring around $160b in new high-grade bond supply.
In commodities, despite a much larger than expected inventory draw, oil extended its slump as CTAs closed out the market 100% net short. Oil was set for its biggest annual drop since 2020 as war and OPEC+ production cuts failed to lift prices. All that will change bigly in 2024.
Looking at the calendar, we only have the December MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45am (3 minutes earlier to subscribers) to round out the year. No Fed speakers are scheduled for remainder of year
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,837.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 479.84
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.99%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.1046
MXAP down 0.3% to 168.86
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 527.76
Nikkei down 0.2% to 33,464.17
Topix up 0.2% to 2,366.39
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,047.39
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,974.94
Sensex down 0.3% to 72,229.27
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,590.82
Kospi up 1.6% to 2,655.28
Brent futures up 0.9% to $77.83/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,068.48
US Dollar Index up 0.15% to 101.38
Top Overnight News
Global aircraft leasing companies are reassessing their risk appetite for China amid heightened tensions with the US and in the wake of big losses following the grounding of planes in sanctions-hit Russia. FT
China is set to overtake Japan as the world’s largest auto exporter (the last time Japan didn’t hold the #1 spot was 2016, when it fell to Germany). Nikkei
South Korea’s CPI for Dec eases by more than anticipated, with headline coming in at +3.2% (down from +3.3% in Nov and below the Street’s +3.3% forecast) and core at +2.8% (down from +3% in Nov and below the Street’s +2.9% forecast). RTRS
Spain’s headline CPI holds steady in Dec vs. Nov at +3.3% (inline w/the Street consensus) while the core number cools to +3.8% (down from +4.5% in Nov). BBG
Israel’s former PM (Naftali Bennett) says the true enemy in the Middle East is Iran, which backs a variety of proxy militant/terror groups without facing any real repercussions. WSJ
Chase Coleman is taking over Tiger Global’s $34 billion VC arm. The move comes after some investors asked Coleman and other partners to get more involved in the wake of steep markdowns and has given many comfort that the firm is seeking to correct the biggest misstep in its history, according to clients. BBG
NYC is set to experience an office construction drought that will last for years (“the next wave of large office towers may not open until the early 2030s, if not later”). NYT
Maine barred Donald Trump from the primary ballot Thursday, becoming the second state to block the former president from running again because of his actions before and during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. WaPo
Applebee’s, which has two locations in Times Square, sold tickets starting at $650 a pop for its New Year’s Eve celebration. Ball Drop, the event’s producer, said tickets have sold out as of Wednesday, but the priciest ticket was $850, as it uses a dynamic pricing model. The Times Square Olive Garden is selling $450 tickets that include a buffet, open bar, DJ, and champagne toast, though a view of the ball drop isn’t guaranteed. A similar package at seafood restaurant Bubba Gump Shrimp Co., which also doesn’t promise a view of the Times Square ball, costs $1,015 per person. Business Insider
HFs have net sold mega cap tech stocks in the past few months, driven by long sales. Net exposure to the group, however, is still elevated at 18.1% of total US single stock Net market value (vs. record level of ~20% seen in July, currently in the 92ndpercentile on a 5-year lookback)…
US Event Calendar
09:45: Dec. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 50.0, prior 55.8
Wheat Rises As Grain Ship In Black Sea Hit By Mine
The war in Ukraine has transformed parts of the Black Sea into a conflict area. Commercial vessels transporting agricultural goods from the ‘breadbasket of Europe’ have been caught in the crossfire.
The latest maritime incident occurred on Wednesday when a Panama-flagged bulk carrier struck a mine in the Black Sea while sailing to a port on the Danube River to load grain, according to Reuters.
“A Panama-flagged civilian vessel was blown up on an enemy sea mine in the Black Sea … The vessel lost its course and control, and a fire broke out on the upper deck,” Ukraine’s southern military command said on Telegram.
Bloomberg shipping data shows that the Greek-operated “VYSSOS” is possibly beached near the Danube Dela Biosphere Reserve. This could be because the captain is preventing the vessel from sinking after the blast.
The sailing of VYSSOS shows bulk carriers are still moving farm goods to and from Ukraine despite the Russian defense ministry saying all cargo ships in the Black Sea bound for Ukraine are potential military targets. This followed the end of the Russia and Ukraine Black Sea agreement – brokered by Turkey – which ended over the summer – that allowed cargo ships to sail along a corridor in the Black Sea to Ukraine
Wheat prices in Chicago are up about 2.5% since the incident earlier this week.
“Wheat is finding at least a bit of support again this morning on more action in the Black Sea,” Matt Zeller, senior market analyst at StoneX Financial Inc., said in a note.
Due to the exceptional efforts of U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and his team, the Israel-Hamas War has not widened into a war that could have disastrous consequences for the oil price, but it may yet do so.
By 2014, the Saudis believed that the U.S.’s shale oil and gas posed an existential threat to Saudi Arabia’s place in the world and to continued rule of the Al Saud royal family
In oil and gas terms, the U.S. has broadly gone from strength to strength. As of now, it is the number one producer of crude oil in the world, and the number one natural gas producer.
Events often have a way of highlighting the circular nature of time rather than its linearity. An extraordinarily notable recent example of this was this year’s incursion into Israel of Hamas on Yom Kippur, just as happened on Yom Kippur 50 years earlier when an Arab coalition did the same. In the same way that the recent incursion resulted in the ongoing Irael-Hamas War, so the events of 1973 led to the Yom Kippur War. So far, due to the exceptional efforts of U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and his team, the Israel-Hamas War has not widened into a war that could have disastrous consequences for the oil price, but it may yet do so. In 1973, though, the Yom Kippur War led directly to an embargo by OPEC members – plus Egypt, Syria, and Tunisia – on oil exports to the U.S., the U.K., Japan, Canada, and the Netherlands in response to their collective supplying of arms, intelligence resources, and logistical support to Israel during the War. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen around 267 percent, from about US$3 per barrel (pb) to over US$11 pb. This, in turn, stoked the fire of a global economic slowdown, especially felt in the net oil importing countries of the West. However, from a long-term perspective, even more important than any of this was the way it changed U.S. policy towards Saudi Arabia and OPEC from that point. Judging from recent announcements from the U.S., the current Israel-Hamas War may have prompted the final phase of that policy made back in 1974.
At the end of the embargo in 1974, some branded it a failure, as it had not resulted in Israel giving back all the territory it had gained in the Yom Kippur War. However, in a broader sense, a wider war had been won by Saudi, OPEC, and other Arab states in shifting the balance of power in the global oil market from the big consumers of oil (mainly in the West at that time) to the big producers of oil (mainly in the Middle East at that point). This shift was accurately summed up by the slick, clever and urbane then-Saudi Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, who was widely credited with formulating the embargo strategy. Crucially for what followed in terms of U.S. policy, one titanic figure in Washington agreed with Yamani’s view, and this was the late Henry Kissinger. A extremely influential geopolitical strategist who served as U.S. National Security Advisor from January 1969 to November 1975, Secretary of State from September 1973 to January 1977, and senior adviser to many U.S. presidents after that, Kissinger came to three key conclusions based on that 1973/74 Oil Crisis, analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order.
The first was that the U.S. could never truly trust Saudi Arabia again, as it had broken the underlying ethos of the foundation stone agreement between the two countries made back on 14 February 1945 between the then-US President, Franklin D Roosevelt, and the then-Saudi King, Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud, as also detailed in the book. This deal had run smoothly from that point to the onset of the 1973/74 Oil Crisis, and it was simply that the U.S. would receive all the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia had oil in place and, in return for this, the U.S. would guarantee the security both of Saudi Arabia and its ruling House of Saud. Saudi Arabia had clearly broken this covenant in leading the embargo on oil supplies against the U.S. Kissinger’s second conclusion was that the U.S. needed to expedite its efforts to become self-sufficient in energy resources as soon as possible, with a focus in the shorter term on oil supplies. He did not have any clear idea at that time when that self-sufficiency might come, as the shale oil and gas revolution was not even in the significant development stage at that point. Third, Kissinger concluded that the best course of action for the U.S. to keep obtaining all the oil and gas it needed to retain its top global economic and political position was to ensure that the Middle Eastern countries did not band together again in the future against the U.S. The optimal way for the U.S. to ensure this, he successfully argued, was to use the ‘divide and rule’ principle between the region’s major oil and gas producers, which in turn was a variant of the ‘triangular diplomacy’ he had advocated and used to great effect in the U.S.’s dealings with Russia and China at that time. In short, this involved playing one side off against the other by leveraging whatever fault lines ran through the target countries at any given time, be they economic, political, or religious, or any combination thereof.
There are multiple major examples of this policy at workanalysed in my new book, but two of the most significant were leveraging the religious schism between Shia and Sunni Islam (as exemplified respectively by Iran and Saudi Arabia), and the undermining of resurgent ideas of pan-Arabism. In the case of the former, notable examples have included the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and its unilateral withdrawal from the ‘nuclear deal’ with Iran in 2018. In the latter’s case, notable examples include the U.S. sponsorship of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, after which Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was assassinated, and the Arab–Israeli relationship normalisation deals. From 1974 to the 2014, this U.S. strategy was broadly successful in ensuring no re-occurrence of meaningful collective actions against it by Saudi Arabia and OPEC. However, by early 2014, it had become obvious to the Saudis that the U.S. had found a way that might ensure its energy independence in the future, as it had long wanted.
This was the rise of the U.S. shale energy industry, which began with gas in earnest in 2006 and with oil in 2010. From a modest start, U.S. shale oil production had risen by an average of slightly less than 0.2 million bpd in 2011 and 2012, but by 2013 the rise in output was virtually a straight vertical line. By 2014, the Saudis believed that the U.S.’s shale oil and gas posed an existential threat to Saudi Arabia’s place in the world and to continued rule of the Al Saud royal family. They were right on both counts, as the Kingdom’s only true power in the world comes from its oil resources, and the royal family’s power in the country is derived entirely from the wealth that it brings. At that time, though, the Saudis believed that if they destroyed – or at least significantly disabled – the then-nascent U.S. shale sector, then its oil power would endure for much longer. And it thought it could do this by launching an all-out oil price war in which it and its OPEC brothers would oversupply the market, pushing prices down to levels that would bankrupt the U.S.’s shale oil producers. The Saudis were confident this war would be successful, as they had triumphed in the 1973/74 Oil Crisis, and it was widely thought that the U.S. shale producers had a breakeven point somewhere above the US$70pb of Brent. All the details surrounding this 2014-2016 Oil Price War (and the later attempt in 2020 to do the same) are covered in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. Suffice it to say here that things did not go Saudi Arabia’s way at all. And the economic and political catastrophe that resulted for Saudi Arabia was a key reason why it has drifted towards China’s and Russia’s sphere of influence since then.
Conversely, in oil and gas terms, the U.S. has broadly gone from strength to strength.
As of now, it is the number one producer of crude oil in the world, and the number one natural gas producer.
The final phase of sidelining the Middle East’s major hydrocarbons producers is continuing, with news that three new oil and gas lease auctions in the Gulf of Mexico have been signed off by the U.S.’s Department of the Interior. These will augment the many other new exploration and development conventional and shale projects announced over the past year by the U.S.’s big oil and gas firms. This even includes the greenlight for U.S. oil giant ConocoPhillips’s US$8 billion Willow oil and gas drilling project in Alaska.
If former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, as seems highly possible, this number would likely rise even more, with 47 sales across all U.S. coastal areas penned in during 2018 for his administration’s five-year offshore leasing program.
Crime Pays: Binance Founder CZ’s Net Worth Rose By Almost $25 Billion In 2023
It’s appears to be another clear cut case of “crime pays”.
Binance Holdings Chief Executive Officer Changpeng Zhao – who plead guilty to criminal charges and is facing prison time next year – saw his net worth rise by almost $25 billion in 2023, according to Bloomberg.
He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Bitcoin’s stunning rise in 2023, up nearly 160% from the collapse in markets in 2022.
How’s that for something to think about while you’re sitting in the klink counting down the days until your release?
CZ’s wealth has surged to over $37 billion, notably surpassing the $4.3 billion fine Binance paid to U.S. authorities. This fortune stems from his majority stake in Binance, the largest crypto exchange globally, which he founded.
Despite a dip in market share, Binance has profited from higher trading volumes amid crypto market recovery. Zhao also owns Bitcoin and Binance’s BNB, that were not counted in Bloomberg’s wealth estimate.
In a significant settlement with the U.S., Zhao and Binance admitted to anti-money laundering and sanctions violations earlier this year, allowing the exchange to remain operational. Zhao personally paid a $50 million fine and stepped down as CEO but kept his ownership stake.
Facing a potential 10-year prison sentence, Zhao is likely to serve no more than 18 months due to a plea deal. The exact term sought by the Justice Department is unknown. A federal judge recently barred him from returning to his UAE home, with sentencing set for February 23, the report says.
His wealth had peaked at around $97 billion at the beginning of 2022, the report notes. It’s year to date high was about $50.4 billion in July of 2023.
Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University who studies digital-asset markets, told Bloomberg: “Investment in crypto is not for the faint of heart; you need to be prepared for the spectacular ups and downs. There is a reason that these investors are billionaires, and it is not luck. They are not tempted to dump their holdings in down markets. They believe in the long-term opportunities this space offers.”
If Bitcoin continues to hold and with the clock ticking already on days until he is a free man once again, CZ may have already hit his “spectacular” low. And if Bitcoin has another stellar year, we’ll be left to ask: has anyone ever become the richest person in the world while serving a prison sentence?
A shop owner in Germany was denounced as a racist for complaining about migrants mass looting his store, while a left-wing politician sided with the criminals, saying they were “entitled” to steal.
Grocery store manager Gatzke told Bild that the thieves who steal huge bags full of items are usually migrants, with around a third of them being Tunisian.
During one incident at the Edeka supermarket in Regensburg, a man stole €140 euros worth of goods, while the manager has also tried to stop thieves stealing groceries worth €300 euros.
“In the bag were spirits: vodka and liqueurs again. They are Muslims — did they want to resell the alcohol?” asked Gatzke.
“What do you need 10 sea bream and so many shrimp for? Nobody steals that because they’re hungry,” he added.
Gatzke noted that the culprits even steal shopping bags worth up to €2.50 euros.
However, he was denounced as a “racist” for complaining about the mass looting and subsequently criticized by Ferat Koçak, a member of the Berlin House of Representatives for The Left party.
Siding with the criminals, Koçak suggested that the migrants were “entitled” to steal because the government wasn’t giving them enough free money in welfare payments.
EDEKA ist die Abkürzung für “Einkaufsgenossenschaft der Kolonialwarenhändler”: Ich würde sagen, die Menschen holen sich das zurück, was ihnen zusteht. Doch so einfach ist das nicht zu erklären.
Eines der zentralen Probleme ist, dass die Behörden überlastet sind und viele… pic.twitter.com/rukq4EpDMc
“I would say that people get back what they are entitled to,” Koçak posted on X.
“One of the central problems is that the authorities are overloaded and many refugees are not even paid what they need to live,” he added.
The leftist demanded that more migrants immediately be given work permits “so that they can lead their lives independently.”
Koçak’s sentiment is increasingly being rejected by ordinary Germans however, with the country becoming the latest major European nation to begin openly talking about re-migration.
Anti-mass migration party AfD has also rapidly increased its support base, despite attempts by the establishment to ban the party altogether in the name of “democracy”.
Meanwhile, in the UK, supermarkets are now having to employ people to stand at the exit and check receipts against shopping carts due to try to stem mass looting.
The world now teeters dangerously close to a major military conflict. This brewing storm of global unrest in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the South China Sea signals a chilling reminder of the world on fire.
The shift towards a multipolar world has led to a surge in military spending by countries. New data from the Financial Times reveals that the world’s top defense firms have been bombarded with orders from tanks to fighter jets to missiles.
Britain’s BAE Systems, South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace, and the United State’s Lockheed Martin, along with twelve other defense firms, were found to have combined order backlogs of $777.6 billion at the end of 2022, up from $701.2 billion two years earlier – or about a 10% increase.
During the first half of 2023, the combined backlogs for the top 15 defense companies reached $765 billion, driven by surging war risk in Ukraine and the South China Sea, which forced governments to continue placing orders. The explosion of a possible regional conflict in the Middle East will likely result in surging orders in 2024.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, total global military spending increased 3.7% in real terms in 2022 to a new record high of $2.24 trillion.
Defense stocks have soared as war risk surges. MSCI’s global defense benchmark is up 14% on the year and breaking out to new highs.
A breakdown of individual defense firms on a year-over-year price change since January 2022 shows monster gains across the board.
“The reality is lead times for policymaking, budgets and placing orders are so long that the invasion of almost two years ago is only just appearing in orders and barely in revenues, except for a few shorter-cycle specialists such as Rheinmetall,” Nick Cunningham, analyst at Agency Partners, said.
The order pipeline for defense firms will remain robust as the realities of a multipolar world continue to emerge.
