Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClear Wire,

Speaker Mike Johnson just sent out an email which captures exactly what is going on in the U.S. Senate today.

He wrote:

“They want you to believe that the deal they’re offering to the American people is a ‘compromise.’ 

“[Sen. Chuck] Schumer wants you to sign off on:

“150,000 illegal immigrants entering the country uninhibited per month. (That’s nearly the population of my hometown in Louisiana)

“Work permits for EVERY illegal alien who’s been released into the country.

And they want YOU to pay for their legal fees.

“My answer is NO. Absolutely not.”

As I mentioned on my podcast this week, I am proud of Speaker Johnson’s firm position, but he is going to need a lot of grassroots support to convince Senate Republicans not to go along with this border sell out.

Americans want a clean, simple bill that controls the border and stops illegal immigrants from entering the United States.

Americans strongly favor legal immigration, but they are worried about the enormous flood of illegal immigrants from more than 160 countries – including people on the terrorist watch list and criminals from dangerous cartels.

Closing Brooklyn’s James Madison High School so American students had to learn from home while illegal immigrants stayed in the school became a symbol of misplaced values and destructive Biden administration policies.

In fact, the American people strongly support another bill, the Secure the Border Act of 2023 – which House Republicans passed last year. At America’s New Majority Project, we found enormous support for key provisions in that bill which address the amnesty and parole systems that are currently being abused.

The American people are increasingly concerned about Joe Biden’s illegal immigration crisis. The issue was the No. 1 concern for Republican caucus goers in Iowa – surpassing even the economy.

Further, in a brand-new poll by America’s New Majority Project, we found 77 percent of Americans reject non-citizens voting. In fact, 60 percent strongly oppose non-citizens voting.

The voting issue is a real election game changer. A Republican who is against non-citizens voting defeats a Democrat who favors non-citizens voting 56 percent to 29 percent (15 percent were undecided).

Finally, Americans do not want to open up the welfare system to illegal immigrants. In yet another America’s New Majority Project poll, we found only 29 percent support letting illegal immigrants receive “Medicaid, food stamps, and other help meant for people with low incomes.” Sixty-four percent oppose this (and 47 percent oppose it strongly).

These most recent findings by America’s New Majority Project reaffirm the results of other polls on immigration and border security.

Consider that according to Scott Rasmussen 73 percent of Americans believe illegal immigration is bad for America (similarly, 71 percent believe legal immigration is good for our country).

In a poll by the Trafalger Group, only 14 percent favor amnesty and citizenship for people who entered the country illegally or are seeking asylum (among Hispanics that drops to 3 percent).

The confusion among Senate Republicans is painful.

Many Senate Republicans start out seeking an agreement with Schumer and the Democrats. Such an agreement will be opposed by the vast majority of Americans.

Both President Biden and the congressional Democrats are committed to accepting illegal immigrants, finding a way to give them work permits, and ultimately letting them vote – even if they are not citizens. Some Democratic controlled cities are already doing this.

The Democrats’ goal is to make the admission of illegal immigrants a routine event. That will require paying their big city allies billions of dollars for taking care of the millions of Biden’s illegal immigrants coming to their neighborhoods. Then they will need extra money to provide health care for illegal immigrants (as California Gov. Gavin Newsom has already promised to do). Then they will have to provide work permits because otherwise we will have millions of people entering an underground economy with no legal means of earning a living. Finally, we will have to pay to educate millions of young people who have no knowledge of American culture.

The Democrat plan is designed to make illegality routine in an effort to get political power. But it will ultimately extend the reach of dangerous cartels, expand drug distribution, and increase local crime.

The American people want illegal immigration stopped – not made routine. They want the border controlled – not opened.

The left ultimately wants no borders, with no requirements for citizenship or expectations of work (note the disastrous proposal Congress is working on to reduce work requirements for the child tax credit).

It is impossible for House Republicans to compromise in good faith with values and goals that are directly opposed to the wishes of the American people.

Let Speaker Johnson and House Republicans know that you stand with them in opposing a phony border bill.

Let Republican Senators know that the details matter, and a bill that regularizes illegal immigration is unacceptable.

This could be a decisive turning point in the crisis at the border – and the crises in our cities.

The question is who will win – the American people or the politicians.

You can help win this fight.

For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com.

Chevron is warning the state of California that its climate policies have consequences: namely, that the price of gas is going to continue to rise. 

Calling the state’s policies a “dangerous game”, it was reported by Bloomberg this week that Chevron is warning the state of potential gasoline price spikes and shortages as a result of policies that discourage petrol production. 

In the last quarter of 2023, drivers in California faced an average gasoline price of $4.94 per gallon, surpassing the national average by approximately $1.72, marking the highest recorded quarterly difference, as per Bloomberg’s compiled data.

Head of Chevron’s U.S. refining, Andy Walz, said this week that the spike is partly attributed to California’s stringent low-carbon fuel regulations, which prompt refineries to shift from petroleum to renewable diesel production. This transition is curbing gasoline availability and causing prices to rise, he told Bloomberg. 

“They knew it was going to happen when they wrote the legislation. The problem is the consumer is starting to realize it. It’s becoming painful. The way politicians dealt with it was ‘let’s blame the oil companies,” Walz said. 

But – as expected – Governor Gavin Newsom’s office responded with a vague statement blaming oil producers that was barely one brain cell above throwing paint on the Mona Lisa: “Big Oil has been ripping off consumers for decades and lying to protect their profits.”

And so, the adversarial tone naturally drives producers from the state: “If they cap the upside when conditions are good it’s going to make it really challenging to want to put our money there. I cannot compete internally for big capital investments. It doesn’t stack up. I’d rather spend money at our refinery in Mississippi,” Walz said. 

As the report notes, Chevron’s relationship with California has become increasingly strained, with stringent regulations leading to a $4 billion asset write-down, mostly in the state.

While Governor Newsom accuses the oil industry of price gouging and climate change misinformation, leading to investigations and legal actions, Chevron simply says it is responding to demand and shouldn’t be penalized.

A new proposal to cap refining margins in California further complicates things for the refiner Chevron’s, with its two refineries representing 30% of the state’s capacity. 

The policies are forcing refiners to spots where they “are making decisions that are kind of putting us on a pathway where there could be a reliability problem,” Walz said. “You may not have the supply of gasoline if things don’t turn out the way the government wants them to. It’s a dangerous game.”

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Donald Trump in furor stormed out of a New York courtroom for a while, in the defamation suit brought by author and dating/boyfriend/sex-advice columnist E. Jean Carroll.

It was just settled against Trump for $83.3 million!

The Carroll suit was largely subsidized by Reid Hoffman the billionaire capitalist, and mega-donor to the Democratic Party and leftwing causes.

The subtext of Trump’s rage, aside from the outrageous monetary size of the defamation ruling, is that he was facing—and angered – a leftwing claimant, a quite hostile leftwing judge, and a leftwing New York jury.

The civil suit serves as a mere preview of four additional leftwing criminal prosecutions, leftwing judges, and leftwing juries to come – all on charges that would never had been filed if Trump either had not run for president or been a liberal progressive.

Yet here we are.

The E. Jean Carroll case is the most baffling of all five.

She, the alleged victim, did not remember even the year in which the purported sexual assault took place, nearly three decades ago. Observers have pointed out dozens of inconsistencies in her story.

It was never clear what were the preliminaries that supposedly (Trump denies meeting her) led both, allegedly, willingly to retreat together to a department store dressing room, where during normal business hours the alleged violence took place.

Moreover, the sexual assault complaint came forward decades post facto—and only after Trump was running for and then president.

Carroll eventually sued him for battery, but well after the statute of limitations had expired and thus the case seemed defunct.

Her claims of defamation injuries arise from being fired from her advice column job at ELLE magazine.

She claimed that Trump’s sharp denials and ad hominem retorts led to her career ruin. But the loss for anyone of a column at 76 does not seem such a rare occurrence, and the absence of a salaried job in one’s late seventies for four years does not seem to equate to a $83 million hit.

And note the allegation that her dispute with Trump led to her firing was strongly denied by the very magazine that cut her loose.

But then another strange thing happened. In 2022, a new law (“The Adult Survivors Act”) was passed in the New York legislature. It also post facto established a twelve-month window (beginning six months from the signing of bill) that permitted survivors of long ago alleged sexual assaults suddenly to sue the accused long-ago perpetrator—regardless of the previous statute of limitations.

That unexpected opening suddenly gave Carroll’s prior unsuccessful efforts a rebirth. And she quickly refiled with the help of arch-Trump hating billionaire Hoffman.

Yet the bill may have been introduced with Trump particularly in mind—given the legislator who introduced it, Brad Hoylman-Siga, was known as another Trump antagonist.

More interestingly, he had earlier introduced and had passed another Trump-targeted bill. That “TRUST” act had empowered particular federal Congressional committees to have access to the New York State once sealed tax returns of high-ranking government officials—such as Trump.

That bill’s generally agreed subtext was a green light for anti-Trump members of Congress to obtain legal access to Donald J. Trump’s tax returns.

So there is an eerie feeling that the New York legislature may have abruptly passed legislation that was aimed at the past conduct of Donald Trump but only after he entered the political arena.

While these are not quite bills of attainder, there is something unsettling if they are post facto laws aimed at targeting the most famous and controversial man in America and the leading candidate for the presidency.

In essence they were targeted statutes designed to make Trump’s prior legally unactionable behavior suddenly quite legally actionable.

Trump will be subject to such special treatment all summer and fall.

Prosecutors Bragg, James, Smith, and Willis will synchronize their court business for maximum effect.

Trump again will face leftwing prosecutors, judges, and juries on charges that are politically driven, involving alleged behavior that is either usually not criminalized or not to the same degree as Trump’s case. (Do we remember the nearly $375,000 federal fine belatedly leveled at an exempt Obama but only five years after his 2008 illegal garnering of, and not reporting, foreign campaign contributions?)

The stakes are higher each day as Trump closes in on the nomination and thus becomes the hope of half the country to end the Biden madness.

Somehow Trump will have to stay calm, give no opening to his legion of hostile prosecutors, while conducting a nonstop campaign against Biden (and for a while Hayley), and while fighting to keep his name on various state ballots.

So what we are witnessing is not even the extralegal efforts of Steele/Fusion GPS, Perkins Coie/DNC/Hillary Clinton in 2016, or the 2020 “Russian disinformation” ruse/change the voting laws/infuse half a billion dollars to absorb the work of the registrar machinations against Trump.

We are way beyond all that.

The legal system itself, hand-in-glove with leftwing politicos (compare campaign boasts of James and Willis, or prosecutorial visits to the January 6 committee and the White House) is turning the process of balloting and elections into an embarrassing farce.

Still, Trump will have to soldier on. He must stay controlled amid the tsunamis, not play into the hands of his accusers, and remember that he may soon be the only eleventh-hour hope to stop this mockery of American law, customs and traditions.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via dlacalle.com,

The euphoria with the fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure makes no sense. The headline champions say that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Statistics (BES). An increase in real GDP of $1.5 trillion with an increase in public debt of more than $2 trillion is not a strong economy. It is a bloated economy. Furthermore, there is nothing positive in consumption when personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was only 3.7% in December and disposable personal income in 2017 has basically stagnated. American consumers are buying fewer things with their salary.

We cannot forget that one of the biggest drivers of the fourth quarter increase in real GDP was an abrupt reduction in the GDP deflator, which came at 1.5%, less than half the previous reading of 3.3%. This is a massive boost to real GDP from a reduction in the inflation estimate that most Americans have not seen at all.

Credit card debt is at an all-time high, and Americans are taking longer to pay their balances. The percentage of Americans who are in financial distress due to credit card debt has reached the same level as during the Great Recession, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis report “Share of Americans in Financial Distress Reaches High Levels” (December 26, 2023, J. M. Sanchez, M. Mori).

The evidence of real economy stagnation is also clear in the Gross Domestic Income figure, which shows why U.S. citizens see the economy in recession when official real GDP tells us a different picture. The annual growth of real gross domestic income, with the latest figure, stands at -0.1%. The BES will not publish the fourth quarter until the next GDP revision, but if previous trends continue, the real GDI may continue to signal recession.

The same happens with inflation.

Market participants and the government may consider that the data on PCE inflation is hugely positive, but if we look at non-replaceable services, shelter in particular, these are rising above 5%.

The above-mentioned figures may seem like a dream to any eurozone citizen, where real GDP is in recession even with the massive Next Generation EU fund and all fiscal rules eliminated. However, U.S. citizens must understand that the path of its economy only leads to stagnation. If you follow European policies, you get European stagnation and elevated unemployment.

The lesson is that so-called “public stimulus” always means more debt, which in turn means more taxes, lower growth, weaker real wages for families, as well as a tougher environment for small businesses.

It is no surprise to read that six out of ten people polled by CBS News said they rated the economy as “fairly bad” or “very bad.” U.S. economic policy is increasingly detached from small businesses and families, those who feel the negative effects of inflation and subsequent rate cuts. While the size of government in the economy rises, aggregate figures seem further away from the reality that Americans live in. In Europe, it is the same: governments cheer aggregate GDP and annual inflation changes, while the average citizen sees the purchasing power of salaries decline rapidly and the ability to make ends meet more complicated. Small businesses feel the destruction of margins when inflation soars and suffer twice as much when rates rise because the entire burden of monetary policy expansion and contraction is imposed on the shoulders of the average worker and small entrepreneur.

It is important to remember that this dire situation for the majority comes after an unprecedented chain of monetary and fiscal stimulus plans imposed under the message of redistribution and helping the middle class, when reality shows that financial repression, massive government size, and bloated debt are destroying the middle class while aggregate figures tell them they should be grateful. Policies that have never worked are being implemented at an astonishing pace and with enormous levels of money printing and debt, and the government blames anyone except themselves for poor consumer and business confidence. This is not a strong economy. Deficits and massive debt will mean more taxes, fewer opportunities, weaker real wages, and weaker growth in the future. I come from the euro area, and I know it. I come from the future of America if it continues down this path: stagnation and elevated unemployment.

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers “Life In The Financial Markets” and “The Energy World Is Flat” as well as “Escape From the Central Bank Trap”. Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

California state Senator Scott Wiener (D), this guy…

…who wants to punish parents for misgendering their children up to the point of losing custody, and in 2022 suggested “offering Drag Queen 101 as part of the K-12 curriculum, and introduced a bill that grants judicial leniency to certain pedophiles, and who was accused of a hate-crime hoax…

…now wants to require any new car or truck sold in the state after 2027 to have “speed governors” which would make it physically impossible to go more than 10 miles per hour over the posted speed limits.

“I don’t think it’s at all an overreach, and I don’t think most people would view it as an overreach, we have speed limits, I think most people support speed limits because people know that speed kills,” said Wiener, who is introducing a set of new bills.

Another part of the measure would require large trucks to install side guards which would prevent pedestrians, cyclists, or other vehicles from being sucked underneath during a crash.

“I think if you ask anyone, do people need to be driving more than 10 miles an hour over the speed limit, assuming you’re not an emergency vehicle which are exempt from the bill, I think most people would say no, I don’t want people driving more than 10 miles an hour in my neighborhood,” he said.

Wiener’s second bill would require Caltrans to make upgrades to crosswalks, bike lanes and curb extensions on state-owned roads to protect pedestrians, cyclists and those who rely on public transit.

A similar bill was vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2019 in order to give Caltrans a chance to do this work on its own. -ABC7

The bills will likely go to a committee sometime in the spring.

Authored by Aaron Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A major alumnus donor is pushing Cornell University to oust its president for allegedly promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives that undermine education quality and academic freedom at the Ivy League school.

In a letter dated Jan. 23 to Cornell’s chairman Kraig Kayser and board of trustees, Jon A. Lindseth, a long-time donor and trustee emeritus, raised concerns over DEI policies and its “harmful effects” on the school and demanded Cornell fire president Martha Pollack and provost Michael Kotlikoff.

“Cornell must abandon its misguided commitment to DEI because it has yielded not excellence but disgrace,” he said. “Replace the President and the Provost.”

“DEI should never have been allowed to corrupt an institution that earned its prestige for exemplary academics based on merit,” Mr. Lindseth said.

In the letter, Mr. Lindseth said he was concerned about the DEI initiatives that have infiltrated all aspects of the university, creating a “toxic academic environment.”

“Today, the instruction Cornell offers is in DEI groupthink applied to every field of study. The result is a moral decay, some call it ‘rot,’ that falls in line with prevailing ideology and dishonors basic principles of justice and free speech,” he noted.

Mr. Lindseth listed multiple instances at Cornell that call DEI policies into question, such as allegedly race-based hiring rather than academic merit, rejecting qualified faculty candidates for not meeting DEI requirements, and punishing faculty members “for expressing minority opinions on national events and policy matters,” among others. He also accused the school of fostering “a cancel culture on campus where bullying, intolerance, and petulant behavior rule rather than academic rigor and honest debate.”

“A new campus ‘bias reporting system’ fosters a hostile Orwellian environment among neighbors, classmates, and colleagues reporting on one another. The elimination of grades and SATs has created a system in which equal outcomes rather than proven merit has become the objective,” Mr. Lindseth said. ”This is disastrous for a research university that is built upon academic achievement and aims to educate and train some of our country’s leading scientists, architects, and engineers.”

Poor Leadership

He also pointed out that Cornell’s DEI policies are being promoted by its new “Center For Racial Justice and Equitable Outcomes.”

Mr. Lindseth blamed Cornell’s poor leadership for allowing DEI to continue to hurt his alma mater, adding that many alumni share the same opinion with him.

In addition to his calling for the resignation of Cornell’s president and provost, he urged the school to terminate DEI staff and policies and made many recommendations to “put Cornell back on the path towards academic excellence.”

Mr. Lindseth said he would withhold his general donation “until the university reformulates its approach to education by replacing DEI groupthink with the original noble intent of Cornell.”

Mr. Lindseth’s letter comes after presidents of two Ivy League schools, Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania, stepped down following their controversial congressional hearings over anti-Semitism on campus.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Lindseth’s move was supported by the Cornell Free Speech Alliance, a free speech advocacy group that was created two years ago. Some wealthy alumni members also want Ms. Pollack ousted.

Russell Rickford, a history professor at Cornell, sparked controversy when he called the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas, killing 1,200 people, “exhilarating” during a pro-Palestinian rally in Ithaca on Oct. 15. The university had to cancel classes on Nov. 3 due to “extraordinary stress” from a series of divisive events on campus. The incidents followed the arrest of a third-year Cornell student for allegedly threatening to kill Jewish people.

Cornell was one of the four Ivy League schools facing investigation by the U.S. Department of Education in mid-November following allegations of anti-Semitism or Islamophobia since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

The school, also under probe by the House Ways and Means Committee, risks losing its tax-exempt status for its “disappointing and lackluster responses” to protect Jewish students on campus after the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks.

According to the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, a free-speech ranking group, Cornell ranked 212 out of 242 with a below-average score.

A week ago, Elon Musk indicated that DEI inherently involves discrimination and is “fundamentally anti-Semitic” amid the growing anti-Semitism in major Western cities and on college campuses. Earlier, hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman, who recently pushed to oust the Harvard president, also criticized the DEI movement, calling it a “root cause” for problems at Harvard.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Cornell University for comment.

Starting last July, a US Navy nuclear-armed submarine made port call in South Korea – something which hadn’t happened since 1981. As expected, North Korea began immediately ramping up its ballistic missile tests and military drills near the border, and there have been escalating threats and counter-threats since.

The New York Times is reporting that the Kim Jong-un government has plans for escalation, saying that it will soon launch some kind of lethal military action against the south, but will still seek to avoid a full-scale war. 

“North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted to a policy of open hostility, U.S. officials say,” the report began.

US officials indicated the recent spate of more aggressive statements from Kim should be taken seriously. “While the officials added that they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation,” the report continued.

“They pointed to North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island in 2010 as an example,” NYT noted. “The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides as well as civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.”

Something which came dangerously close to the 2010 deadly exchange of fire actually happened earlier this month. On Jan.5 North Korea fired over 200 artillery rounds off its West coast which landed near the South’s Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong Islands, as we detailed earlier.

Seoul condemned the “provocative act” while the North asserted the islands weren’t in danger due to these drills. There were no casualties, and the shells appear to have fallen harmlessly into the sea, but it quickly raised fears of a repeat of the 2010 incident wherein four people died on Yeonpyeong island. Civilians on the area islands were ordered to seek immediate shelter in the Jan.5 incident.

Interestingly, all of this also comes at a time of deepening relations between the North Korean leader and Russia’s President Putin, who is believed to be planning a trip to Pyongyang at some point in the near term. The DPRK is also widely believed to be supplying the Russian military with weapons.

VIDEO: South Korea soldiers patrol border island after North’s artillery drills.

On the remote border island of Yeonpyeong, heavily armed soldiers locked up the beaches at dusk — a reminder of the picturesque spot’s proximity to nuclear-armed North Korea pic.twitter.com/R8PGuyiiET

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 9, 2024

* * *

The non-interventionist think tank Responsible Statecraft agrees that North Korea’s threats are more than just rhetoric at this point. It asked: Are North Korea’s latest threats rhetorical or real? According to some of the commentary [emphasis ZH]…

Washington’s failure to remain engaged with North Korea is the primary reason that longtime North Korea watchers Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker believe that Kim Jong Un has abandoned the default approach of more-or-less peaceful coexistence in favor of launching an attack against South Korea. In some ways, Kim is following the logic of Hamas, an illiberal force also in charge of a largely failed entity. Kim, too, perceives his adversaries as complacent, uninterested in any real negotiations, and vulnerable to a surprise attack. Presiding over an “open air prison” in Gaza, Hamas decided it had nothing left to lose. The North Korean leadership, in charge of an impoverished country with a horrific human rights record, may well have decided that it also has run out of options.

“The literature on surprise attacks should make us wary of the comfortable assumptions that resonate in Washington’s echo chamber but might not have purchase in Pyongyang,” Carlin and Hecker write in 38North. “This might seem like madness, but history suggests those who have convinced themselves that they have no good options left will take the view that even the most dangerous game is worth the candle.”

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The former FBI official who whistleblowers say shut down an investigation into President Joe Biden’s son violated federal law with a social media post denigrating former President Donald Trump, a watchdog has found.

Timothy Thibault “engaged in modern-day leafletting on social media,” the U.S. Office of Special Counsel found after reviewing Mr. Thibault’s posts.

Mr. Thibault’s social media activity included sharing in 2020 a post from the anti-Trump political action committee Lincoln Project that itself included an article with the title, “Donald Trump is a Broken Man.”

That violated the Hatch Act, which bars federal employees from engaging in political activity while on duty. The law also imposes further restrictions on employees of some agencies, such as the FBI, such as prohibiting activity “in concert” with partisan political groups like the Lincoln Project.

“Although Mr. Thibault was on leave when he retweeted this message, the Hatch Act’s prohibition against acting in concert with a partisan political group applies to further restricted employees at all times, even when they are off duty and away from work,” the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) said in a Jan. 19 letter to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that was reviewed by The Epoch Times. “Accordingly, because Mr. Thibault shared a message from a partisan political group on Twitter, OSC has concluded that he acted in concert with a partisan political group, in violation of the Hatch Act.”

The review of Mr. Thibault’s activity came at the request of Mr. Grassley.

Among Mr. Thibault’s other posts, while with the FBI, was a LinkedIn post of a Washington Post opinion piece that stated in part that the Trump administration had abused the justice system. He also told then-Rep Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) that her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, “was a disgrace.”

“The American people deserve to have confidence that the officials entrusted to lead the top echelon of our federal law enforcement agencies are not letting political bias infect their work. These federal employees should not blur their official business with their political viewpoints,” Mr. Grassley told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

“The Office of Special Counsel confirmed that former FBI Assistant Special Agent in Charge Timothy Thibault failed to meet that standard. I’ve warned that this sort of political bias will erode public confidence in the FBI. It’s up to the bureau to restore that trust through transparency and cooperation with congressional oversight,” he added.

The FBI and Mr. Thibault did not respond to requests for comment.

Mr. Thibault’s lawyers said previously that he did not think he violated the Hatch Act with his social media posts.

Mr. Thibault left the FBI in 2022. His lawyers said at the time that he retired.

Violations of the Hatch Act can result in removal from federal employment, a suspension, and/or a fine of up to $1,000.

The OSC said it warned Mr. Thibault that if in the future he violates the Hatch Act while in a position covered by the act, “OSC would consider such activity to be a willful and knowing violation of the law that could result in disciplinary action.”

Mr. Thibault was an assistant special agent in charge at the FBI’s Washington Field Office when the FBI received derogatory information about Hunter Biden, the son of President Biden. The information included details of alleged criminal financial activity. Mr. Thibault ordered the matter closed without providing a valid reason, whistleblowers have informed Congress.

Mr. Thibault “was not involved in any decisions related to any laptop that may be at issue in that investigation, and he did not seek to close the investigation,” his lawyers have said.

Mr. Grassley noted in a speech on the Senate floor that the lawyers did not directly address the whistleblower accusations.

Mr. Biden has since been charged with tax fraud in California and gun crimes in Delaware. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

According to the most comprehensive recap of relevant recent market flows, last week hedge funds were subdued with buying driven almost entirely by short covers in Macro Products while flow in Single Stocks ended flat, as trading activities pointed to increased dispersion and sector rotation. Perhaps more importantly, Goldman’s Sales Trading desk notes that the theme of the week was an increased appetite for equities ex mega cap tech, as markets digested better economic growth, benign inflation data, and mixed tech earnings. SPX finished the week with 328 names up on the week vs 175 down. Compare that to the first 2 weeks of the year where SPX showed 197 up, and 305 names down – aka investors are rotating away from defensive tech, and into other names. Finally, the Goldman trading desk saw $4bn of net supply from the LO community, largely driven by Info Tech and Comm Services selling throughout the week. Energy and Industrials were the only net bought sectors on the pad. HFs finished the week balanced.

All this and much more is discussed in what we have dubbed Goldman’s weekly “must-read” report that aims to consolidate the latest positioning and flows intelligence, market themes, and actionable ideas from thought leaders and traders across the GS franchise, and is an indispensable piece for every serious trader.

Below we excerpt from the latest full report for the benefit of our premium and professional readers  (full analysis available to our pro subscribers in the usual place).

* * *

The S&P 500 fell marginally on Friday after closing at ATHs for 5 straight sessions, as market participants digested better economic growth, benign inflation data, and mixed tech earnings. China ADRs, Value, and Commodity Sensitive names were among the biggest gainers this week, while Housing Exposure, High Retail Sentiment, and Onshoring stocks underperformed.

Next, here are the key observations from across the key divisions inside Goldman’s trading desk.

• Prime: US equities were modestly net bought this week, driven almost entirely by short covers in Macro Products. While Single Stocks net flow ended ~flat, trading activities point to increased dispersion and sector rotation – Industrials, Real Estate, Utilities, and Materials were the most net bought sectors, while Consumer Disc, Financials, and Health Care were the most net sold.
• Shares Sales Trading: The theme of the week was an increased appetite for equities ex mega cap tech. SPX finished the week with 328 names up vs 175 down (compared with the first 2 weeks of Jan where 197 names were up vs. 305 down). Our trading desk saw $4bn of net supply from the LO community, largely driven by Info Tech and Comm Services selling throughout the week, while Energy and Industrials were the only net bought sectors on the pad. HFs net activity finished the week balanced.
• Futures Sales Trading and Strats: Various actions implemented by Chinese policymakers appear to have supported price action in equities (MSCI EM) and commodities (High Grade Copper), as bearish China sentiment afflicted various futures contracts entering this week. In Energy, ongoing geopolitical strains prompted meaningful risk infusions in the Low Sulphur Gasoil contract.
• Derivatives Sales Trading: The US equity market will pay attention to what happens between now and Feb 2nd: QRA, FOMC, and earnings (32% of SPX market cap reports next week) are among the notable catalysts. We still like IWM upside despite the recent pullback, and with China potentially turning a corner on the policy front, some investors are warming up to Energy stocks again.
• ETF Trading: This week’s focus was an RIA-tracked model portfolio rebalance that came through multiple platforms. Domestic equities saw supply in US growth (IVW) and quality (QUAL) vs. demand for US Value (IVE) and a factor rotation strategy (DYNF). International equities saw demand for DM growth (EFG) vs. supply in DM value (EFV). Fixed income saw supply in USD IG Corps (LQD), treasury floaters (TFLO) and 20+ year treasuries (TLT) vs. demand for Core Bond+ (IUSB) and actively managed FI (BINC).
• Baskets & Macro Themes: Take a look at High Beta 12M Laggards (GSCBLMOM). The momentum factor has been sensitive to the odds of a March rate cut, and for investors who think a March cut will happen and are long momentum, it may make sense to hedge. With Gross exposure in our PB book at record highs, this can leave crowded positions and momentum at risk of a de-grossing. Outside of short momentum, a March rate cut would be best for residual vol, beta, value, and leverage related factors.
• Sector Specialists: A mixed week for Health Care, as the early innings of the 4Q EPS season brought significant volatility/debates around Managed Care, Med Devices and Tools subsectors, while IPO/capital markets picked up after a long drought. In Consumers, we think most of the earnings results in the next 2 weeks will likely continue to support the building notion that the consumer is in a pretty healthy place and that comments from the card companies about a volume slowdown are explainable.

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Some more details on each of these segments below:

1. Prime Services

Asset Weighted Risk Exposures: US Fundamental L/S Gross leverage decreased -0.2 pts to 196.4% (93rd percentile three-year), while US Fundamental L/S Net leverage rose for a 3rd straight week by +0.4 pts to 54.1% (48th percentile three-year). Aggregate US Fundamental long/short ratio increased +0.5% on the week to 1.76 (30th percentile three-year).

Trading Flows: US equities were modestly net bought on the week (+0.4 SDs vs. the past year), driven almost entirely by short covers in Macro Products (Index + ETF), as net flows in Single Stocks finished ~flat.

Macro Products – Index and ETF combined – were net sold in 4 of the past 5 sessions, driven mainly by short sales. On the other hand, Single Stocks were modestly net bought on the week, driven by long buys outpacing short sales 1.2 to 1.

While Single Stocks collectively saw muted net activity, trading flows point to increased dispersion and sector rotation – Industrials, Real Estate, Utilities, and Materials were the most notionally net bought sectors, while Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Health Care were the most net sold.

Consumer Discretionary stocks were net sold for a 2nd straight week (5 of the last 6), driven by long-and-short sales (~4.5 to 1). Broadline Retail and to a lesser extent Specialty Retail were the most net sold subsectors this week, driven by long sales and short sales, respectively.

After being net sold in 4 of the previous 5 weeks, Real Estate was the most net bought sector on the week in standard deviation terms (+2.4 SDs), driven by short covers and long buys (1.6 to 1). Nearly all subsectors were net bought this week, led by Retail REITs, Specialized REITs, and Real Estate Management & Development

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2. US Shares Sales Trading

RTY finished the week +1.7%, vs SPX +1.1% and NDX +62bps. The theme of the week was an increased appetite for equities ex mega cap tech, as markets digested better economic growth, benign inflation data, and mixed tech earnings. SPX finished the week with 328 names up on the week vs 175 down. Compare that to the first 2 weeks of the year where SPX showed 197 up, and 305 names down – aka investors are rotating away from defensive tech, and into other names.

Our trading desk saw $4bn of net supply from the LO community, largely driven by Info Tech and Comm Services selling throughout the week. Energy and Industrials were the only net bought sectors on the pad. HFs finished the week balanced.

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3. Futures Sales Trading and Strategies

Entering this week, bearish China sentiment afflicted various futures contracts. For equities, Commitment of Traders exhibited $3.2bn of Non-Dealer net selling in MSCI Emerging Market from January 9th – 16th, due to liquidation (-$2bn) and new shorts (+$1.2bn). By category, Asset Manager dominated. This, combined with bearish flows in other leveraged products, pressured funding spreads. Similarly in commodities, High Grade Copper net length across Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable nosedived $3.2bn – the 3rd largest 2 week fall over the past 2 years. New shorts ($2.3bn) were the main driver.

Therefore, it was no surprise that various actions implemented by Chinese policymakers, including equity market support and a cut in the reserve requirement ratio, were well received. As of the January 25th close, High Grade Copper and MSCI EM were +0.6% and +2.2% on a 4 day look back. From a momentum perspective, the swing in Copper may prove more impactful near-term. Per GS Futures Strategists’ CTA model, sizeable buying is projected over the coming week if prices sustain current levels. However, discretionary portfolios seem reluctant to implement longs ahead of the Q1 seasonal surplus and with carry still firmly negative.

In Energies, ongoing geopolitical strains – Red Sea bickering plus Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries – prompted meaningful risk infusions in the Low Sulphur Gasoil contract. Extrapolating from recent Commitment of Traders data and viewing the extreme curve strength, Managed Money spread buying was potentially responsible for some bullish posturing. But GS Futures Strategist’s model also forecasted reasonable CTA purchases due to a change in trend. Interestingly, inventory data has yet to reflect draws, causing some to question the curve shift.

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4. ETF Trading

Model Portfolio Rebalance Spotlight

This week’s focus in ETF flows was an RIA-tracked model portfolio rebalance that came through multiple platforms across both equity and fixed income ETFs. Total primary flows were ~$14.4bn across both creates and redeems, coming through the system both via outright risk blocks and benchmark working orders. The desk was active and engaging with clients around these flows, leveraging house expertise in the underlying constituent portfolios across equities and bonds.

In domestic equities, saw $3.5bn of supply out of US growth (IVW) and quality (QUAL) and $4.8bn of demand into US Value (IVE) and a factor rotation strategy (DYNF). The graph below showcases the shares outstanding change on the back of the $2bn tactical switch out of quality and into value.

In international equities, saw demand for DM growth (EFG) / supply in DM value (EFV). Since July last year, there was a systemic shift out of growth and into value – with this allocation shift, it could be a signal for a reversal:

In fixed income, saw supply in USD IG Corps (LQD), treasury floaters (TFLO) and 20+ year treasuries (TLT) / demand for Core Bond+ (IUSB) and actively managed FI (BINC). This allocation into BINC doubled the size of the fund, hitting just over $1bn in total AUM (as of Thursday night).

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5. Derivatives Sales Trading

In the near-term, the US equity market will pay attention to what happens between now and Feb 2nd… among other catalysts, we get:

• QRA
• FOMC
• Earnings – nearly 40% of the S&P’s market cap reports, the biggest week of earnings.

The equity vol market is now pricing the biggest premium on this date – the S&P implied move from now thru next Friday’s close = > 1.50%

If that sounds low, it’s because it is … The options market is currently implying near record-low correlation amongst S&P constituents, as high gross leverage and index vol selling products have led to much more dispersion.

Underscoring the micro volatility: both long and short exposures have risen sharply to their respective multi-year highs.

The other prevalent trend of more options selling remains thematic at the S&P index level, which continues to provide dealers with more gamma (this has a braking effect on the SPX market moves, as dealer hedging flows lead to more buying on dips, and more selling on rallies).

So where does the desk think we can move? We still like IWM upside despite the recent pullback. With short exposure at multi-year highs and looming catalysts, the case for owning calls here is attractive.

Similar to other short proxies (namely China equities), we are seeing positive spot/vol correlation in IWM as investors rush to hedge shorts on rallies. This phenomenon has never before occurred in small-caps.

Where else could shorts be vulnerable? Managers have continued to sell and press shorts in Energy stocks – our PB data has shown consistent selling here to start the year as part of the re-grossing theme, and with China potentially turning a corner on the policy front (more on those recent flows here), we’re seeing some investors warming up to this space again.

It’s also worth noting that commodities in general are starting to see some positive flow signals. Unlike our equity CTA model that shows a downside asymmetry, in the commodities space:

Last point: the dichotomy between the first half of February and the second half from a seasonal perspective. For those worried about any froth in the US markets, the last two weeks in February are historically the worst 2 weeks of the year. Given how well markets followed the historical analog last year, it’s something to have on the radar.

Simulated results are for illustrative purposes only. GS provides no assurance or guarantee that the strategy will operate or would have operated in the past in a manner consistent with the above analysis. Past performance figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results / charts sourced from Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, GS Research, and Bloomberg as of Jan 25th 2024.

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6. Thematic Baskets and Macro Observations

After this morning’s data, the 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation is below 2%. At the same time, the odds of a March rate cut have declined YTD. Will that change?

We wanted to flag just how sensitive the momentum factor has been to the odds of a March rate cut (visual below). If you think a March cut is happening and you are long momentum, it may make sense to hedge. Outside of short momentum, a march rate cut would be best for res vol, beta, value and leverage related factors (tables below). We recommend looking at High Beta 12M Laggards {GSCBLMOM Index}

Overall Gross exposure in our PB Book has risen to new record high and this can leave crowded positions and momentum at risk of a de-grossing, especially as Momentum factor exposure of Systematic is in the 88th percentile vs 5y history.

• Other items that could be favorable for low momentum, high beta, small cap stocks:
• The negative revisions of 4Q Earnings for 493 imply a low bar for earnings the next two weeks
• Indices at all time highs should be supportive of breadth improvement at some point
• Dealer gamma positioning keeps S&P contained, allowing for more factor rotation under the surface.
• Many short quality trades are 12-15% below December levels, and quality factor appears to be topping out.
• The yield curve is close to un-inverting, and unless this steepening is viewed as the start of the recession (’01, ’07), it is typically good for beta, weak b/s, small size, value, tech and financials and basically the opposite of what is working YTD.

Momentum has been sensitive to odds of a March cut

Momentum could be at risk of a de-grossing

Momentum Factor exposure of Systematic is in the 88th percentile vs 5y historical

Beta to March Cut:

Short Momentum (GSCBLMOM Index) is decoupling from 10yr yields

Momentum is off to its best start in 15 years and strongly rebounded post December selloff

Momentum has become overbought in January and RSI remains elevated vs history

Correlation of momentum to popular Themes are very elevated

7. Sector Specialists Highlights

Health Care

A mixed week for the healthcare sector, as the early innings of the 4Q EPS season brought significant volatility/debates around Managed Care, Med Devices and Tools subsectors, while IPO/Capital markets picking up after a long drought.

Most in-focus was the Managed Care group, where the Medicare Advantage market remains the epicenter of debate around a historic rise in costs. After negatively preannouncing the prior week, HUM provided formal 2024 and initial 2025 commentary well below even subdued expectations. Commentary from the company suggested a heightened cost trend environment into 2024 and an elongated period with which the company could re-price/adjust their risk book. This comes partly in contrast to peer UNH who saw similar spike in cost trend in 4Q, though suggested more seasonal impacts rather than something more durable, while peer ELV largely confirmed cost issues are MA-centric issue.

Medtech updates on the week had some puts/takes, with topline trends remaining strong + corroborating elevated cost environment – though sell-the-news dynamics (ISRG, ABT) and/or weaker margin execution (JNJ) drove volatility within the complex.

Debates around the Life Sciences/Tools subsector remains high, with the solid 4Q + initial 2024/mid-range guidance from EU peer Sartorius driving a late in the week bounce in the broader Tools sector, particularly bioprocessing levered names within the group – though focus quickly shifting towards the mega cap bellwethers within the complex (TMO, DHR) reporting next week to confirm or deny signs of stabilization across key life sciences end markets.

Consumers

Consumers spending choppier, but fine. While there was some inbounds and concern around comments from Visa about their January trends, the group was able to successfully brush off any view that it was a narrative chance. As a desk, we have heard inbounds for the last 2 weeks now about weak traffic trends in retail in January in restaurants and retailers. Much of it can be simply attributed to weather and tougher compares. As a result, we think any slightly sluggish January updates will not come as too much of shock to the consumer specialist and community. We do not think there is any true change to the soft landing narrative for the market or consumer spending.

Corporates this week generally sounded a constructive tone. The most surprising came from airlines, who largely guided to in-line or above consensus 1Q results. Another area of unexpected strength was from Proctor & Gamble (PG), who highlighted +4% volume growth in the US and said they had expectations for further improvements. That is a change from their tone in 2H23. While we do not think the next 2 weeks of earnings results will be perfect, most will likely continue to support the building notion that the consumer is in a pretty healthy place and that comments from the card companies about a volume slowdown are in fact explainable.

More in the full note available to pro subscribers.

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),For a few days, ever since the supposedly amazing GDP report from quarter four 2023, we’ve been blasted by the media about how great the economy is doing. It’s exasperating because these claims do not fit with human experience. Last we heard from the Census Bureau, real income is down, and no one doubts it. Everyone has felt strong downgrades in living standards over these last four years.

And yet, no recession has been declared. This is for technical reasons. A recession is supposed to show up in the technical reading of the GDP plus unemployment. We’ve known for years that the unemployment data is broken. It does not account for labor dropouts or adjust for multiple job holders or otherwise reveal anything about labor participation or remuneration. Unemployment is technically low but so what?

As for GDP, it is not a measure of the standard of living or even economic growth. It is a measure of output—stuff going on as measured in dollar terms, whether necessary, productive, society serving, efficient, or not at all. The aggregate was concocted at a time when economists believed that spending was itself productive, whether it flowed from a sustainable capital base or government itself. Anything moving and churning was regarded as good.

When the latest report came out and everyone cheered, I dug around the data a bit but figured I would wait for my favorite analysts to weigh in. Sure enough, Peter St Onge writes it up and it is a doozy. “Fresh GDP numbers came in and it was a blowout. The kind of blowout that only a $2.7 trillion government deficit can buy while the private economy crumbles around it. Another couple blowout GDP reports like this and Americans will be living under an overpass.”

The essential ruse comes down to unfathomable amounts of government spending that is being recorded as productivity and output, and interpreted by media as growth. “In the past 12 months the federal deficit increased by $1.3 trillion. Yet we only got half that in GDP—about $600 billion. In other words, everything else shrank. It’s even worse for that brave and stunning Q4—there we got just $300 billion in extra GDP for—wait for it—$834 billion of new federal debt.”

To put a fine point on it: “Essentially, [GDP is measuring] the pace at which we’re going Soviet, replacing private wealth with government waste.” In his interpretation of the data, we are destroying wealth at the fastest rate since 2008.

An analysis by ZeroHedge echoes the same thought.

“While Q4 GDP rose by $329 billion to $27.939 trillion, a respectable if made up number, what is much more disturbing is that over the same time period, the US budget deficit rose by more than 50 percent, or $510 billion. And the cherry on top: the increase in public US debt in the same three month period was a stunning $834 billion, or 154 percent more than the increase in GDP. In other words, it now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth… and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth!”

To further the analysis, and doing the math: “[E]very dollar in GDP growth cost $1.69 in new debt, and also means that every new job cost future generations of Americans $957,100.48.”

To say this is unsustainable is more than obvious. It is a disaster and this is dragging American prosperity into the pits, if by prosperity you mean quality of life. No matter how many gizmos to which you have access, the resources for living a good life are depleting very fast. The idea of a one-income family is nearly extinct, whereas it was the norm three-quarters of a century ago. Even the gizmos are falling apart and not serving us well.

Household appliances don’t work unless you somehow get your hands on the most high-priced models. They are trying to shove everyone into urban commuter cars so that you cannot drive on those big vacations that used to be the American norm. College is out of reach and the degree is increasingly worthless anyway. People are ever more despairing for the future and thinking that this is just the new normal.

Even looking at output data over the long term, you can see the trend, even given all the manipulation and fakery. It’s still very obvious where things are headed.

This chart reveals the history that did not need to happen. The United States has been the world center of technological innovation during these years, and the historical home for free enterprise and entrepreneurship. We should have had the greatest boom times in our history! Instead, government stole all that energy for itself. It’s a tragedy.

Everyone underestimates the wild effect of 2020 and the following chaos caused by lockdowns. Those sent the workplace into upheaval, wrecked data collection, made property rights and liberties far less secure, and entrenched a professional managerial class in government and industry that conspires against the public.

On the good side, we are seeing the evaporation of trust in media, medicine, academia, and government. Large media organizations are laying off workers in droves just to survive, and the woke agenda generally seems on the ropes.

Dramatic reforms are possible but are they likely? We will see. There needs to be wholesale reform in government and much more besides in order to save what’s left of the great American prosperity machine. As it is, the more likely outcome is to go the way of empires past, a long slog through the miasma of corruption and stagnation until generations hence will speak of the United States in the past tense the way we talk about the Portuguese empire.

That’s a big departure from the way this article opened so let’s go back to the point. The GDP data is not reflective of anything real except government profligacy and stagnation in every sector that counts. You can read the headlines or look at the underlying realities. One perpetuates existing myth-making and the other reveals that the myth is not long for this world.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.