Authored by Svetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The world’s energy needs will only grow, and it would be “foolish” to think that rising demand can be met with renewables alone, Oman’s Energy Minister Salim Al-Aufi told CNBC on Tuesday.  

Oman’s energy minister tells CNBC’s @_hadleygamble it would be “foolish” to assume that the world’s growing energy needs can be met with renewables. pic.twitter.com/BL0TUcWhFz

— CNBC Middle East (@CNBCMiddleEast) November 8, 2022

Energy needs to be affordable and this is the first pillar of energy supply when the energy transition is concerned, the minister said.  

Oman’s official also defended, again, the OPEC+ decision to reduce the headline target oil production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) as of this month, saying that the group is proactive in trying to balance the market.

Al-Aufi also said that he wasn’t surprised by the U.S. blowback after the OPEC+ decision was announced.

“It was expected,” he told CNBC.

Referring to the energy transition and renewables, Oman, like many Middle Eastern oil and gas producers, believes that all forms of energy will be needed to meet the world’s growing energy demand in the coming years and decades.

Back in September, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser said that years of underinvestment, a lack of a backup plan, and alternatives not ready to step up and replace conventional energy are the real causes of this state of energy insecurity today.

The world and policymakers need a more credible energy transition plan, which has to recognize that “supplies of ample and affordable conventional energy are still required over the long-term,” Nasser said in a speech at the Schlumberger Digital Forum 2022 in Switzerland. Aramco’s CEO reiterated the long-held view of Saudi Arabia that the world will need oil and gas for the foreseeable future and will need more investment in the industry just to keep supply steady amid declining output from maturing wells, and even more investment to boost production capacity to meet the world’s energy needs.

European Council president Charles Michel was set to deliver an address at the opening day of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) hosted in Shanghai on Friday, but Chinese authorities have pulled the pre-recorded video address in a very brazen act of censorship of a top official and diplomat, Reuters reports.

“As requested by the Chinese authorities, we had indeed provided a pre-recorded message which was ultimately not shown. We have addressed this through the normal diplomatic channels,” a statement from EC President Michel’s office confirmed. 

The high-profile speech was likely canceled by Chinese authorities as it was expected to criticize Russia’s war in Ukraine while also provocatively urging the European Union to reduce trade dependency on China.

What’s more is that he was expected to call on Beijing to pressure Moscow to halt the ongoing attack on Ukraine, and heap criticism of the Russia-China “no-limits” partnership declared just before the war’s start in February. 

According to statements from diplomatic sources cited in Reuters, the rebuke of Russia was going to be scathing, at an event where President Xi Jinping is to speak as well: 

Mr Michel’s speech included strong criticism of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. “In Europe, we want balance in our trade relations… to avoid over-dependencies,” his speech said, reported Reuters citing the diplomats familiar with what he was to say.

“This is also true of our trade relations with China.”

“China has a role in using its influence to stop Russia’s brutal war… through your so-called ‘no-limits’ partnership with Russia,” Mr Michel was to say, referring to a pact announced by Mr Xi and Mr Putin in Beijing before the war began.

“You, China, can help put an end to this.”

Xi and Michel are expected to meet in person next week at the G-20 summit in Bali. Biden will also meet with Xi – a moment that will drive headlines, likely overshadowing everything else.

#Chinese authorities behind a major trade expo in Shanghai pull an address by the #EU chief #CharlesMichel that was set to criticize Russia’s “illegal war” in Ukraine and call for reduced trade dependency on China, diplomats say.https://t.co/qb3TIFz2lQ

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) November 8, 2022

But a Sunday report in the South China Morning Post noted that “Beijing has yet to officially confirm either Xi’s attendance at the summit or a meeting with Biden, who will be in Bali from November 13 to 16.”

If it happens, it will be the first face-to-face meeting with Xi since Biden took office in 2021. According to the US side, via US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, “There’s an awful lot of issues for us to talk to China about. Some issues are fairly contentious and some should be collaborative.” The US confirmed ongoing intense discussions and planning with the Chinese side for the meeting.

Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

America could be stumbling drunk pretty fast tonight just based on Rule #1 of the Official 2022 Midterm Election Drinking Game: drink at every mention of democracy itself. We’ve been told for months that’s what’s at stake, and it’s a safe bet you’ll be told it again tonight at least enough times to drain a bottle or two.

But what fun would a drinking game with one rule be? Especially at the end (we hope!) of a political season as infuriating as this one, we deserve to kick it a little. The quantity of terror-mongering this year has been unprecedented. Issues all but vanished. In their place the public was subjected to an endless parade of horror tales about democracy’s end, “attacks” on ballot integrity, intimidation, disenfranchisement, foreign influence, “election denial,” and three bears of the new Homeland Security Goldilocks tale: misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation.

All of which makes the prospect of watching returns tonight grimmer than usual, but we’re here to help, with drinking game rules for tonight’s broadcasts. I’m going to be watching MSNBC, purely for comedy value, but you can substitute any broadcast from Fox to CNN fairly easily. I’m on kid duty tonight and unfortunately won’t be on hand for the whole night. However, I plan on trying Substack’s new chat feature, opening a beer and a chat with subscribers at 8 p.m. You’ll need the Substack App to take part. I’ll also be joining Katie Halper on her show at around 10 p.m (click here to join).

No matter where you watch, coverage tonight should be packed with lunatic hyperbole, with warnings either about a blood-soaked New American Reich or a vast election-theft conspiracy, depending on which party succeeds. Of course the most likely end is the Beastie Boys No Sleep Till Brooklyn scenario, i.e. we don’t make it to an answer no matter how late we stay up, with panic continuing for weeks and people on all sides feeling more anxious and hating one another more as time progresses.

To which our answer is, Drink! But have fun doing it, at least tonight, perhaps according to these rules:

Drink EVERY TIME:

1. Anyone, from a candidate to a TV anchor, mentions that “democracy is on the ballot.” Double-shot for use of the phrase democracy itself, e,g, “democracy itself is on the ballot.”

2. You’re told this is the most important election of our lifetime, or the most critical moment of our lives, etc. You may drink an additional shot if you’re certain today is not any of those things.

3. Steve Kornacki draws a frenzied geometric shape around Pennsylvania.

4. John Fetterman’s shorts are visible in a video report.

5. Nate Silver reminds you he doesn’t do predictions, but rather publishes percentage-chance forecasts.

6. Liz Cheney is mentioned (i.e. as if mattering).

7. Elon Musk is blamed for something. Double-shot if the bad thing is “in the name of” or “under the guise of” free speech.

8. Anyone mentions “over a hundred election deniers on the ballot.” Also drink for permutations on the theme, e.g. “60% of Americans will have an election-denier on the ballot,” or “Over half of GOP candidates are election-deniers,” “election-denier JD Vance wants to ban books,” etc.

9. Anyone mentions the “specter of violence” or “conditions ripe for violence,” or reports votes are being counted “amid threats of violence.” Do an exclamation shot at the end of the night if no violence is ultimately observed.

10. A politician or a pundit warns that everything might come down to the “wild card” in Georgia, and with suspicious gleefulness reminds you we might all be waiting until December 6th to find out who’ll control the Senate. Call it the “No Sleep Till Georgia” rule.

SPECIAL MSNBC “DECISION 2022” ELECTION NIGHT RULES:

11. Tune in at 8 p.m. Guess which of Rachel Maddow, Nicolle Wallace, Joy Reid, Chris Hayes, Alex Wagner, Lawrence O’Donnell, Ari Melber, Stephanie Ruhle or the aforementioned Kornacki will be first to blame any Republican victory on disobedient or insufficiently centrist Democrats and/or third party “spoilers.” Drink the first time this happens anyway, and drink a double if you guess correctly.

12. Guess which contributor will be the first to make a cringe sports-related joke about Herschel Walker. Drink the first time this happens, and drink a double if you guess correctly or the person botches the terminology (e.g. “For once, Herschel Walker can’t pile the move”).

13. Guess which contributor will be first to convey warnings from the Department of Homeland Security, FBI, US Capitol Police, or National Counterterrorism Center about threats, misinformation, or the impending end of civilization. Drink the first time this happens, and drink a double if you guess correctly or the contributor happens also to be a former government official.

14. Guess which contributor will be the first to invoke Nazis, fascists, or white supremacy, or suggests without irony that tonight might be the last time we ever have elections. Drink the first time this happens, drink a double if you guess correctly.

15. OPTIONAL: Keep a running count of how many times the word “Trump” is mentioned on the broadcast versus all mentions of all other issues (health care, education, the economy/inflation, etc.). If at the end of the night you have a “hot deck,” i.e. the number is +4 for Trump, you may drink that many times. If the deck is cold, drink coffee. Or whatever.

DRINK ONLY THE FIRST TIME YOU HEAR:

1. “Red wave.”

2. “Red mirage.”

3. Russians/Putin want you to vote Republican (e.g. “a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives could help the Russian war effort”).

Remember, rules can be combined. Here’s a double-shot, for instance:

This is exactly what Putin wants. If we’d had Republicans like this in the 1980s, we would have lost the Cold War. pic.twitter.com/vPYmYuj6ME

— Liz Cheney (@Liz_Cheney) November 4, 2022

As always, do not politics and drive. Hydrate before sleeping, hug your loved ones, and don’t wig out too much, no matter what the result. The sun will still come up tomorrow.

Subscribe to TK News by Matt Taibbi

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has refused to allow federal election monitors from the Justice Department into polling locations.

In a statement earlier this week, the DOJ said it was sending officials to 64 jurisdictions throughout the country – most of which would be in red or purple states.

Included in the list was Broward County, Miami-Dade County, and Palm Beach County.

Brad McVay, General Counsel at the Florida Department of State, responded…

“(T)he Florida Department of State received copies of your letters to Miami-Dade and Broward Counties in which you seem to indicate that the Department of Justice will send monitors inside polling places in these counties,” reads a letter to the DOJ from McVay.

“We also understand you sent a similar letter to Palm Beach County.”

“But Department of Justice monitors are not permitted inside a polling place under Florida law,” McVay continues.

“Section 102.031(3)(a) of the Florida Statutes lists the people who ‘may enter any polling room or polling place.’ Department of Justice personnel are not included on the list. Even if they could qualify as ‘law enforcement’ under section 102.031(3)(a)6. of the Florida Statutes, absent some evidence concerning the need for federal intrusion, or some federal statute that preempts Florida law, the presence of federal law enforcement inside polling places would be counterproductive and could potentially undermine confidence in the election.”

In short, pound sand.

As the Daily Wire notes, McVay’s letter noted that the Biden administration’s communications with counties in Florida “do not detail the need for federal election monitors.

“None of the counties are currently subject to any election-related federal consent decrees,” the letter continues. “None of the counties have been accused of violating the rights of language or racial minorities or of the elderly or disabled.”

“Your letters simply provide a non-exhaustive list of federal elections statutes as the basis for this action without pointing to any specific statutory authorization,” McVay concludes. “When asked for specific authorization during our phone call this evening, you did not provide any. Accordingly, the Florida Department of State invokes its authority under section 101.58(2) of the Florida Statutes to send its own monitors to the three targeted jurisdictions. These monitors will ensure that there is no interference with the voting process.”

Despite ongoing dollar weakness, oil prices tumbled for a second straight day as China Zero-COVID easing hopes faded and the crypto meltdown today appeared to hit ewvery asset class for a period…

“The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research.

Of course, traders are also waiting for any signals on supply/demand tomorrow with tonight’s API report offering some early insight…

API

• Crude +5.618mm (-700k exp)

• Cushing -1.848mm – biggest draw since May

• Gasoline +2.553mm (-1.2mm exp)

• Distillates -1.773mm (-900k exp)

Expectations were for a small crude draw on top of last week’s surprisingly large draw but instead API reported a significant build of 5.618mm barrels. Additionally Cushing saw a major draw and Distillates stocks dropped again…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was holding just above $89 ahead of the API data and extended losses below the low of the day after the surprise build…

“Inventory numbers should be in focus this week as the U.S. will aim to extend last week’s small increase to distillate stocks, which remain persistently low,” said Robbie Fraser, manager, global research and analytics at Schneider Electric, in a daily note.

“Strong export demand has kept diesel in short supply, and some additional inventories would be welcomed ahead of a heating season that could carve out more room for diesel as global natural gas supply remains tight,” said Fraser.

Separately, in a monthly report released Tuesday, the EIA raised its 2022 and 2023 price forecast for heating oil and diesel.

It said U.S. supplies of the fuels known as distillates, which are primarily consumer as diesel and heating oil, finished the month of October at their lowest level in any October since 1951.

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Do you remember in early 2020 when they told us that the shortages that we were experiencing would just be temporary?  Of course some of them were, but then more shortages just kept on erupting.  That wasn’t supposed to happen, and now it appears that our supply chain problems could potentially get a whole lot worse.  In just a few short months, we will be three years away from the beginning of the pandemic in the United States.  But instead of a “return to normal”, more shortages are on the way.  And in some cases, they could even be life threatening.

Let me give you an example.  We need Amoxicillin to treat some of the most common infections that our children experience.  Unfortunately, the FDA is warning us that we are now facing a very serious shortage of Amoxicillin…

Ear infections and strep throat.

Both are common childhood illnesses, for which the go-to prescription is in short supply, according to a recent nationwide alert from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The warning specifically involves the powder, which pharmacists use to mix liquid Amoxicillin for childhood infections.

This is a really big deal.

According to one recent survey, close to two-thirds of all pharmacies in the nation are having difficulty getting Amoxicillin right now, and the national shortage of Adderall is even worse…

Nearly 66% of pharmacies are having challenges obtaining amoxicillin, according to a new National Community Pharmacists Association (NCPA) survey of 8000 pharmacy owners and managers, whereas 89% are realizing a shortage of Adderall.

Of course we are dealing with lots of other drug shortages at this moment as well.

In fact, according to the official FDA drug shortage list there are nationwide shortages of a whopping 183 different drugs in the United States right now.

We truly are in unprecedented territory.

Up in Canada, things are even worse.

If you can believe it, at this point the Canadians are facing “an acute shortage of basic painkillers”…

The Canadian healthcare system is experiencing an acute shortage of basic painkillers, particularly acetaminophen and ibuprofen, which are commonly used to relieve pain and fever in children during flu season.

Canada’s Association of Medical Assistance in Dying Assessors and Providers (CAMAP) chose this perhaps awkward moment to roll out a webinar for healthcare professionals that advised them to offer assisted suicide to their suffering patients.

So why don’t the Canadians have enough Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen right now?

Well, we are being told that the primary reason is “a lack of raw ingredients to make the drugs”…

CBC News quoted health officials who blamed “a lack of raw ingredients to make the drugs,” “an uptick in respiratory viruses fueled by the relaxed [Chinese coronavirus] measures,” and “panic buying” for the shortage of painkillers for children.

As I have covered in previous articles, most of the basic ingredients that go into our pharmaceutical drugs come from China.

So if you think that things are bad now, just wait until war with China erupts.

Once that happens, our pharmacies will get really empty and our entire healthcare system will experience a historic meltdown.

Switching gears, with Thanksgiving coming up I wanted to talk about the fact that we are now facing a nationwide shortage of turkeys…

As CNBC reports, the price of turkey is up 73% from last year, a pretty astonishing figure. Experts attribute it to the bird flu, which has devastated turkey stocks this year. Apparently, the disease normally doesn’t flourish during the summer as farmers get their holiday flocks together. But, you know, the 2020s haven’t been easy so naturally, the flu hit hard right in the middle of the year when it could do the most damage.

The good news, if you want to call it that, is that you will still probably be able to get a turkey if you are willing to pay enough.

The bad news is that supplies of turkey just keep getting tighter and tighter.

One business owner in San Francisco recently stated that it is “like pulling teeth trying to get turkeys from the companies” at this stage…

But it’s not just the Thanksgiving bird that’s at risk — it’s your lunchtime turkey sandwich, too. San Francisco delis and butchers are already feeling the effects of the shortage.

“It’s like pulling teeth trying to get turkeys from the companies,” said Sal Qaqundah, owner of Arguello Market, a San Francisco cult favorite for its “world famous” turkey sandwich.

Unfortunately, we are also facing a shortage of butter in the weeks ahead.

The USDA is urging consumers not to “panic buy” butter so that there will be enough to go around for everyone…

Butter is another area where the war and cost of dairy products has affected supply, as the price of the condiment and baking ingredient has gone up a dollar per pound since January of this year, per Eater. Fearing a full-blown butter shortage, the USDA has asked consumers not to rush or panic buy, but simply secure what they need at a given time, per Best Life.

Did you ever imagine that we would be talking about a butter shortage in late 2022?

Things just keep getting crazier and crazier.

And if the diesel fuel shortages eventually get as bad as some are projecting, we could soon be facing severe shortages of countless products.

Our ships, our trains and our trucks run on diesel fuel.

So if there is not enough diesel fuel, we are going to have a real problem trying to fill up our stores with enough stuff for everybody.

Even now, supplies of diesel fuel are so tight that one big player in the industry just issued a major alert…

A major fuel supply and logistics company is raising a red flag on upcoming diesel fuel shortages.

Mansfield Energy issued the alert Friday stating there was a developing diesel fuel shortage in the southeastern region of the United States. The company speculated that the shortage could be generated from “poor pipeline shipping economies” and a historically low supply of diesel reserves.

“Poor pipeline shipping economics and historically low diesel inventories are combining to cause shortages in various markets throughout the Southeast,” the company said. “These have been occurring sporadically, with areas like Tennessee seeing particularly acute challenges.”

There are a number of reasons why supplies of diesel fuel have gotten so tight.

But the biggest is the fact that imports from Russia have been totally cut off…

But the primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S.

The loss of those Russian imports have caused problems for refineries as they struggle to fill holes in their product slates. Refineries do have a small amount of flexibility in shifting gasoline production to diesel production. But it’s a relatively small amount (e.g., ~5% in a refinery I once worked in). That also means that if refiners do shift production, that also potentially creates shortages in the gasoline market.

So why don’t we just produce more ourselves?

Well, thanks to our politicians, the number of refineries in the United States has actually been declining in recent years even as our population has grown.

At this point we simply do not have enough refineries, and this is a problem that is not going away any time soon.

In the months ahead, we aren’t going to completely run out of diesel fuel as some people out there are suggesting.

But supplies may get so tight that it could potentially create widespread supply chain nightmares that are quite severe.

Let us hope that such a scenario does not materialize.

Because the American people are already angry enough about the economy.  In fact, a brand new survey has found that it is the number one issue for U.S. voters at this moment…

The Washington Post and ABC gave Americans eight top issues they will be considering when making their decision in a poll that showed likely voters split between the Democrats and Republicans.

The economy was cited by 26 percent of likely voters as one of the most important factors, followed by abortion with 22 percent and inflation and threats to democracy each by 21 percent.

For decades, we have been able to rely on our supply chains to continuously fill our stores with mountains of cheap goods.

But now our supply chains are breaking down.

In fact, our entire economic system is breaking down and most people are completely and utterly unprepared for the difficult times that are coming.

I know that many of you have been patiently waiting for a long time for life to “return to normal”.

Sadly, that isn’t going to happen.  The incredibly bad decisions that our leaders have been making are now catching up with us in a major way, and a great deal of pain is ahead.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

Update (1535ET): Former President Trump has called for protests over voting irregularities across the country.

“The Absentee Ballot situation in Detroit is REALLY BAD. People are showing up to Vote only to be told, “sorry, you have already voted,” Trump wrote on Truth social. “This is happening in large numbers, elsewhere as well. Protest, Protest, Protest!“

Trump also said that “Maricopa County in Arizona looks like a complete Voter Integrity DISASTER,” adding “Likewise Detroit (of course!), Pennsylvania, and other places. Not being covered by the Fake News Media!”

Trump also addressed the 20% of precincts in Maricopa County, AZ which have had major issues, ‘Truthing’: “Only Republican areas? WOW! Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and all others are being greatly harmed by this disaster. Can’t let this happen, AGAIN!!!”

*  *  *

Nearly 20% of voting centers in Maricopa County, AZ are experiencing issues, according to officials.

The Maricopa County Recorder’s office says technicians have been dispatched to fixed broken tabulation machines.

“We’ve had a few tabulator issues at a couple locations where the tabulator isn’t immediately taking the ballot,” said County Recorder Stephen Richer after being asked about two locations with issues. “Instead it can either be Central count tabulated here, or if that issue can be addressed there, then it can be fed into the tabulator…“

AZ: There are 223 voting centers across Maricopa County— that means at least 44 of their polling locations are experiencing issues with tabulators. Election officials say techs are out working on the problem but there is no estimate on when the issues will be resolved.

— Ali Bradley (@AliBradleyTV) November 8, 2022

BREAKING: Reports out of Maricopa county of Machines “not working” and ballots being “misread”

WHAT IS GOING ON?
pic.twitter.com/lkd0YXegXZ

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 8, 2022

BREAKING: Now issues reported with machines in Wickenburg, AZ, northwest Maricopa.

Worker tells the voter to stop filming pic.twitter.com/ACFiivw3vn

— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) November 8, 2022

Just yesterday…

Yesterday Maricopa County Election Officials Held A Presser on ‘False Election Narratives’

Ensuring Voting Machines Have Been Tested & Are Accurate…

Today They Are Reporting At 20% of Voting Centers Machines Are Not Working… #Arizona pic.twitter.com/5yYVWH1OKx

— Covid-1984 (@Spiro_Ghost) November 8, 2022

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Kale says she’s getting “flooded with calls” from frustrated voters.

I am getting flooded with calls and text messages from people who are having trouble voting all over Maricopa County.

THIS is why we must reform our elections. https://t.co/oFFElskQFs

— Kari Lake (@KariLake) November 8, 2022

If you have already checked in at a Maricopa County voting location where the tabulators do not work, you can (1) wait for your ballot to be tabulated on site, (2) ask to use the handicapped voting machine, or (3) leave your ballot in a box to be counted later. (2/2)

— Kari Lake (@KariLake) November 8, 2022

They only had two years to figure this out… Unless of course this is a feature, not a bug.

I’d like to note once again that Brazil — with a population of similar size to the US (especially with mandatory voting and a voting age of 16) — counted all votes nationwide in every race within 3 hours after the polls closed. Every race was decided that night. https://t.co/8phpLUQA6j

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 7, 2022

Meanwhile, every single Dominion voting machine is down across Mercer County, New Jersey, according to officials.

In a Tuesday morning notice, West Windsor Township informed residents that “Due to a Mercer County-wide system outage, all voting machines are currently down in each district across the County.

Voting machines are currently down, vote on a standard ballot https://t.co/TXVP7Cy8lQ

— West Windsor Police (@westwindsorpd) November 8, 2022

“The Board of Elections has advised the county of issues with voting machines. Poll workers will be on hand to walk voters through the process. The board is working with Dominion, the machine maker, to resolve the issue,” reads a notice posted on Facebook, ABC6 reports.

For the second election cycle in a row, I go to vote and the machines are not working. Had to submit a provisional ballot. You have to do better Mercer County, NJ. The poll workers were wonderful amid the chaos.

— Eddie S. Glaude Jr. (@esglaude) November 8, 2022

In response, the New Jersey Republican State Committee (NJGOP) says they’re aware of the issue, and that voters can still cast their ballots on paper. 

“On behalf of our NJGOP legal counsel and election integrity team, I want to make crystal clear to the voters of Mercer County that in spite of reported problems with scanners on voting machines in Mercer County, this issue does not affect their voting experience at all. Voters will still enter their polling place, cast their vote, and insert the paper ballot into the machine as they normally would.”

Voters can be completely rest assured that NJGOP is ensuring voters’ rights are protected at all phases of the process and that their vote counts -Tom Szymanski, Executive Director NJGOP

For further updates, check back.

Via Remix News,

After two sexual assaults at a refugee hotel housing both child and adult asylum seekers, Labour MP Diane Abbott criticized Home Secretary Suella Braverman for her anti-migrant rhetoric…

Former shadow home secretary for the U.K. Labour party, MP Diane Abbott

A U.K. Labour MP is under fire for suggesting the rape of a teenage boy at a hotel accommodating asylum seekers in northeast London last month “is what happens when you demonize migrants.”

Diane Abbott, the former shadow home secretary in ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet, made the remarks in a tweet published on Thursday afternoon.

She referenced the plight of a teenage boy who was raped at a hotel housing asylum seekers in the London borough of Waltham Forest. The attack reportedly took place on Oct. 5 but has only just come to light.

“Officers attended and spoke to the victim, a boy in his teens, and his family,” a spokesperson told Sky News on Thursday. “Specialist support is being provided.

“A man, aged in his 30s, was arrested at the scene and taken into custody,” they added.

Abbott called the incident a “terrible case,” before suggesting that “it is what happens when you demonize migrants and take no responsibility for safeguarding migrant children.”

She ended the tweet by calling for the ousting of current Home Secretary Suella Braverman.

The accommodation facility in Waltham Forest is currently housing both child and adult asylum seekers. There are reportedly 150 children and 250 adults residing at the facility.

It is not known whether the children are all unaccompanied asylum seeking children (UASC) or children who have arrived with parents.

Another incident allegedly took place at the same facility, which saw a male claiming to be aged 17 arrested on Sept. 11 and charged with one count of sexual touching of a child under 13.

Labour MPs have called for the resignation of Braverman due to the overcrowding of facilities, including at the Manston immigration processing center in Kent, a facility that has a capacity for 1,600 people, is intended to be used solely for processing, and is currently accommodating around 3,500 asylum seekers.

Braverman has vowed to tackle the crisis, as well as bring down the cost to taxpayers for housing those awaiting processing for asylum. Her promise came after it was revealed by Home Office staff during a parliamentary select committee hearing last week that Britons are paying almost £7 million a day to house asylum seekers in hotels.

“The number of people arriving in the UK via small boats has reached record levels and continues to put our asylum system under incredible pressure,” a Home Office spokeswoman explained.

“We urge anyone who is thinking about leaving a safe country and risk their lives at the hands of criminal people smugglers to seriously reconsider. Despite what they have been told, they will not be allowed to start a new life here,” she added.

Braverman recently described the current numbers arriving in Kent as an “invasion,” and although her rhetoric was heavily criticized by Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama on Wednesday, many supporters of Braverman say there is no other way to describe Britain’s current migration crisis. More than 12,000 of the 40,000 arrivals this year to Britain via the English Channel have originated from Albania, despite Rama admitting on Wednesday that it is a “safe country of origin.”

He suggested that rather than fuel xenophobia by highlighting the number of Albanian arrivals, the British government should better focus its efforts on securing its own borders.

In recent weeks, gold has been caught in a perfect vice of bullish and bearish forces.

On one hand, the Hawkish Fed has continued to pile relentless pressure on the precious metal; to wit, during his recent press conference, Chairman Powell hinted at slowing down the pace of rate hikes, while also signaling that terminal rates may peak at a higher level. Following the conference, US rates and the dollar surged. Importantly, the Fed reiterated that bringing inflation down to 2% remains a top priority, triggering a sharp fall in gold after the announcement.

But wait, isn’t inflation good for the world’s oldest inflation hedge? Well, as Goldman’s Mikhail Sprogis writes in a note this morning, in given circumstances, it is: for example, high inflation tends to be (extremely) bullish for gold when the market questions the central bank’s ability to fight it, such as during Burns’s tenure in the 1970s. In contrast, high inflation tends to be bearish for gold when the market gives the CB credit in its ability to reduce it, such as during Volcker’s fight on inflation in the early 1980s.

In any case, the Fed’s consistent message that it is willing to sacrifice growth to bring inflation under control has helped keep breakeven inflation expectations stable and pushed real rates to the highest level since the GFC. As a result, gold ETFs and speculative positions have fallen as the effect of higher real rates has offset the impact of rising recession worries.

On the other hand, as we reported last week, Central Bank buying of gold, especially among emerging markets, just hit a record: according to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2022 CB gold purchases of 400 tonnes, the largest quarterly figure on record, and 300 tonnes above trend.

As an aside, and as we discussed last week, the record-high buying emanated from an “unexplained” component of the World Gold Council data, which reflects purchases by countries which either do not report their activity or report with a lag. For example, Russia stopped reporting gold purchases this year, while China often reports with a large lag. The largest reported purchases came form Turkey, Uzbekistan and Qatar. Still, one thing we can be reasonably sure of is that the buying is done by a combination of EM CBs. Meanwhile, DM CBs have not been significant gold buyers since the 1960s.

In any case, this furious EM central bank buying cannot be explained solely by dip-buying behavior or low interest rates. It is particularly impressive also given persistent dollar strength through Q3 that, all else equal, would have normally depressed non-USD purchases of gold. It also means that, even without any further gold purchases in Q4, 2022 is set to be a record year for CB gold demand.

This paradoxical divergence between record central bank demand, and depressed pricing due to Fed policies, creates – according to Goldman strategist Mikhail Sprogis – gold’s return asymmetry: as he writes, “EM CB demand appears to be a reflection of geopolitical trends that have been years in the making vs a one-off spike.” As a result, the Goldman banker believes that structurally higher EM CB demand creates an asymmetric payoff for gold as it provides a floor to gold if further ETF liquidation occurs in response to further hawkish Fed surprises.

Meanwhile, in a scenario where a US recession leads to a turn in the US monetary cycle – which it will, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed breaks something badly – Goldman estimates that gold could rally by 20-30% depending on the degree of Fed cuts.

To fine tune this analysis, Goldman looks at the gold price sensitivity to changes in CB demand. According to Sprogis, “in order to estimate then impact of higher CB purchases on gold, we look at the price sensitivity of net jewelry demand (jewelry demand minus scrap), the balancing factor in the gold market. The logic here is that persistently higher CB demand will have to either destroy jewelry demand or incentivize more scrap collection, all else equal.”

The bank’s results indicate that in order to accommodate an additional 350 tonnes of CB demand through jewelry demand destruction or scrap increases, gold has to rally by 10% (poor Goldman still thinks that the physical and paper gold markets are connected when in reality nothing could be further from the truth courtesy of rampant paper gold manipulation by central and commercial banks and the BIS). In any event, Goldman continues and notes that with CB demand rising by 233 tonnes over the past year, the gold price was boosted by 6.5%, all else equal. Going forward, if CB gold purchases were to continue at a 400 tonnes quarterly pace, that could boost equilibrium gold prices by 25%, all else equal. In a less extreme scenario where purchases moderate to 250 tonnes per quarter over the next year, we believe gold could increase by 12.5%, all else equal.

One way to think about what’s going on is that EM central bank demand acts as a ‘put’ on the gold price; meanwhile elevated growth risks create a positive asymmetry for gold returns. According to Goldman, the precious metal’s downside in the case of a ‘soft landing’ or further Fed hawkishness is significantly less than gold’s upside in the case of a growth shock that pushes the US economy into recession. Strong demand from central banks further enhances this asymmetry: in 3Q22, 300 tonnes of above-trend CB purchases were outweighed by 250 tonnes of below-trend ETFs demand and a 340 tonne decrease in speculative futures positions. In other words, massive physical gold buying by central banks was offset by even more massive selling of levered and derivative paper gold positions. As a result, gold prices tumbled as investor selling outweighed CB buying.

But going forward, even Goldman thinks there is limited further downside in Spec positioning which is already close to historic lows. The bank also thinks that, while the drawdown in US ETFs can continue, European liquidations should slow after the ECB turned more dovish. Thus, structurally higher CB demand should help absorb further ETF selling which further enhances the gold price return asymmetry in our view.

There is much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs in the usual place.