As Trade Growth Surged, Goldman’s One-Delta Desk-Head Asks “Is China Done Exporting Deflation?”
China’s trade growth accelerated sharply in January-February (exports: +21.8% yoy, imports: +19.8% yoy) and came in well above consensus expectations, prompting Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky to ask:
Rebounding aggressively. China exports were strong and CPI came in hot earlier in the week, prompting the question: is China done exporting deflation?
Government data showed that exports soared 22% during the period, compared with a 7.2% median estimate from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Imports jumped nearly 20%, according to a statement released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. The trade surplus came in at $214 billion, an all-time high for the January-February period.
Notably, both months are combined to smooth out any distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday.
Trade flows show China is becoming less reliant on the US market. Exports to the US fell 11%, while shipments to Africa surged nearly 50%. Exports to ASEAN rose more than 29%, and shipments to the EU climbed almost 28%.
This data shows Beijing is finding alternative markets as the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ agenda decouples from China.
Total exports for January nearly topped $357 billion, the second-highest on record, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data.
Société Générale SA economist Michelle Lam said surging trade volumes in China were due to strong tech product demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom.
Among major categories and in sequential terms, import value of semiconductors increased the most, followed by metal ores and products, while import value of energy goods decreased (mainly from natural gas and coal). In year-over-year terms, chip imports continued to accelerate by 40.0% yoy in January-February.
Also on the import side, Crude volumes rose sharply in January and February as Beijing amassed reserves, pre-empting Mideast risks, and analysts say it provides a strong buffer for global supply disruptions.
China imported 96.93 million tonnes of crude in January and February, up 15.8 per cent from the same period in 2025, according to customs data released on Tuesday. The value of those imports, meanwhile, fell 5.2 per cent from last year in US dollar terms.
“China was accumulating oil and gas stockpiles [earlier this year], with the market expecting the US to strike Iran,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“It built on the record-breaking strong stockpiling momentum we saw in 2025.”
While highly exposed to Middle Eastern oil, China has built a substantial stockpile – which Lee estimated to be around 120 days of import cover – that provides a buffer against potential supply shocks.
“China should also benefit from AI supply chain-related goods,” Lam said. “That supports our view that there is no major growth risks despite modest stimulus this year, helped by export demand, with US-Iran situation risks to watch.”
The trade data comes after China’s consumer inflation accelerated to the highest in more than three years, while producer deflation persisted, with soft demand remaining a drag on the economy.
The positive start to the year came just before Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East upended global energy markets and commercial shipping lanes. This now poses a severe risk for the world’s largest exporter as the economic fallout from an energy shock may first weigh on industry.
Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said, “Tensions in the Middle East will push inflation higher for as long as global energy prices remain elevated.”
“An extended conflict in an oil-producing region will fuel inflation, reduce room for monetary easing, and negatively affect global growth outlook — that, in turn, will affect China’s exports,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia for Standard Chartered Plc. “Given the uncertainty about how long the war will last, I think it is too early to think about stimulus. In fact, the growth target for 2026 was lowered partly to deal with an unpredictable situation like this.”
The trade and inflation data come just weeks before the summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump to discuss ways to end the trade war. A potential mega Boeing-China jet deal may suggest positive results could emerge from the upcoming meeting.
Artificial intelligence (AI) developer Anthropic sued the Department of War on March 9, following the federal government’s designation of the company as a supply chain risk.
That designation hinders government agencies and their contractors from working with Anthropic.
The suit comes after the company refused to change the user policy for its AI tool Claude to allow the government to use it for what Anthropic described as “mass surveillance” and “fully autonomous weapons.”
The Pentagon has denied that it planned to use Claude for such purposes.
The refusal caused President Donald Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth to direct federal agencies to sever ties with Anthropic and state that “effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic.”
On social media, both Trump and Hegseth accused Anthropic of trying to “strong-arm” the federal government by dictating its military policy.
“WE will decide the fate of our Country—NOT some out-of-control, Radical Left AI company run by people who have no idea what the real World is all about,” Trump said in a Feb. 27 Truth Social post.
“Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military,” Hegseth said on X the same day. “That is unacceptable.”
Anthropic alleges that the federal government is punishing the company for its First Amendment-protected speech and viewpoint.
The company also alleges that the Department of War reached out to some of its business partners following the rift and that those companies “delayed or paused several national security contracts or business engagements already in active development with Anthropic.” That puts “millions, possibly billions, of dollars at risk,” Anthropic stated.
“These actions are unprecedented and unlawful,” Anthropic’s lawsuit reads.
“The Constitution does not allow the government to wield its enormous power to punish a company for its protected speech. No federal statute authorizes the actions taken here.
“Anthropic turns to the judiciary as a last resort to vindicate its rights and halt the executive’s unlawful campaign of retaliation.”
In its filing, Anthropic said it isn’t confident that Claude “would function safely or reliably” if used for those purposes. Anthropic’s suit asks the court to set aside Trump and Hegseth’s designation as unconstitutional.
The lawsuit also names the US Treasury and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the State Department, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with 17 other government agencies and officials.
A group of more than 30 AI engineers and scientists from OpenAI and Google, including the latter’s chief scientist, Jeff Dean, also filed a legal brief in support of Anthropic on Monday.
“If allowed to proceed, this effort to punish one of the leading U.S. AI companies will undoubtedly have consequences for the United States’ industrial and scientific competitiveness in the field of artificial intelligence and beyond,” the group wrote.
The Pentagon declined to comment on the suit.
The Pentagon previously said the company must accept “any lawful use” of its tools and technology to support the U.S. military.
Record Childhood Obesity Surge Puts MAHA Health Goals In Focus
Childhood obesity in the United States has reached its highest recorded level, renewing debate over school meals, physical activity, nutrition policy and the role of weight-loss medications for young people, according to The Hill. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows more than 1 in 5 children and teenagers were obese between 2021 and 2023, up from 5.2 percent in the early 1970s. About 7 percent now meet the criteria for severe obesity.
The issue has become part of the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative connected to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Discussions around solutions often center on improving school meals and increasing opportunities for physical activity.
Nutrition advocates say school meal programs play a critical role in children’s diets. For some students, breakfast and lunch at school are the most nutritious meals they receive each day. Erin Hysom of the Food Research & Action Center said pandemic school closures disrupted that support. “They’re noting that this increase in obesity occurred during COVID-19 and that jump in childhood obesity happened during the years when millions of kids lost access to reliable school meals,” she said.
The Hill writes that only nine states currently provide universal free breakfast and lunch to public school students, though others are considering similar programs. Federal officials have also promoted updated nutrition guidance that emphasizes whole foods and discourages ultra-processed products, which account for more than 60 percent of children’s daily calories.
Researchers say improving school meals will require additional funding, trained staff and better kitchen equipment so schools can prepare more fresh food. At the same time, the administration has approved requests from 18 states to remove soda and junk food from certain food assistance programs and announced new nutrition training requirements for future physicians.
Experts also point to declining physical activity in schools as a contributing factor. Erin Hager of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health said opportunities such as recess and physical education have gradually been reduced as schools focus more heavily on testing. “Many of those physical activity opportunities that a lot of us kind of take for granted… have been taken away and replaced by a focus on standardized tests,” she said.
Medical treatments are also part of the conversation. The Food and Drug Administration has approved several obesity medications for adolescents ages 12 to 17, including Wegovy, Saxenda, Orlistat and Qsymia. Prescriptions for these drugs rose sharply after their approval, though they are still used by only a small share of eligible teens.
Matthew Haemer of the American Academy of Pediatrics said prevention remains the priority, but medication can help some patients. “For those children — especially those children with the most severe obesity… FDA-approved medications can be a helpful tool in the toolbox,” he said.
The UK government under Keir Starmer is once again eyeing a total ban on X, this time claiming Grok’s ability to spit out “insults” and “offensive language” poses a dire threat. But as users on the platform point out, this is just another excuse to silence dissent against the regime.
Fresh reports reveal Starmer’s administration is probing ways to penalize X for “spreading offence online,” including a potential shutdown. Sky News reported on Grok being prompted to generate vulgar responses targeting Hinduism, Islam, and even historic football disasters.
Watch:
🚨BREAKING: KEIR STARMER IS CONSIDERING MOVE TO SHUT DOWN X AGAIN
Grok can be prompted to produce ‘insults’ and ‘offensive language’
The UK Government are now looking at ways to penalise the platform for spreading offence online INCLUDING a possible shutdown
The correspondent notes that Grok has been used to generate “highly offensive content” directed toward groups of football fans, such as blaming Liverpool supporters for the 1989 Hillsborough disaster, where 97 fans died in a crush, and for which authorities were found to be culpably responsible. Similar insults targeted Rangers fans, referencing the 1971 Ibrox disaster that claimed 66 lives.
The government says it is investigating the issue. This comes after Ofcom, as the regulator, stated at the start of the year that it was considering potential actions. Under the Online Safety Act, penalties could include fines up to 10% of a company’s worldwide revenue or £18 million if non-compliance is determined.
Sky News states that X is “urgently investigating” the chatbot responses.
This isn’t Starmer’s first rodeo in targeting X. As we detailed in our earlier coverage, the UK government threatened a total ban on X over the so-called “Grok bikini flap,” where the AI was prompted to create ‘sexualized’ images.
As we further noted, the push for a total ban likely has nothing to do with protecting children, but everything to do with stifling free speech and criticism of the Labour government’s policies.
X users aren’t buying the latest pretext. One post blasts “Starmer Bin Lying gets fact checked by Grok every time he speaks He can’t even post on this app without being exposed as a liar.”
A reply warns of tyranny, quoting Robert A. Heinlein: “When any government, or any church for that matter, undertakes to say to its subjects, This you may not read, this you must not see, this you are forbidden to know, the end result is tyranny and oppression no matter how holy the motives.”
This pattern reeks of authoritarian overreach. Starmer’s regime, facing backlash over open borders and surveillance creep, can’t stand a platform where truths about their failures go viral.
X remains a bastion for uncensored discourse, exposing leftist hypocrisy and globalist agendas. Shuttering it just because a minority of people made Grok make up some insults would constitute a total victory for tyrants.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
Trump Threatens Harder Strikes If Iran Hits Global Oil Supply, Pledges US ‘Excursion’ Nearly Complete
Summary:
Trump pledges Iran ‘excursion’ going to be ended soon, but warned “Iran will be hit harder” if it starts up again, or if Tehran targets global global oil supplies.
When asked by reporter, Trump refuses to say if new Ayatollah has a target on his back.
Trump tells Republican conference it is going to be a short-term excursion in Iran, but he’s ready to see the mission through against “evil” Iran.. Says of Tehran, “They should’ve cried uncle two days ago.” And Iran campaign will be “finished pretty quickly”.
Trump tells CBS “the war could be over soon.” Oil prices drop on the headline.
Trump calls choice of new supreme leader ‘a big mistake’
Lebanon wants direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting but Israeli rejects it, also amid US skepticism: Axios.
Trump says too soon to talk about seizing Iran’s oil but does not rule it out, tells NBC.
Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son
Senator Graham: “The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
Timeline to end Iran war?Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.
Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman’s Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.
Iranian official to Al Jazeera: “we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now.”
G7 ‘closely monitoring’ energy markets, ‘ready’ to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.
Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts – saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.
Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump“…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”
CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
* * *
Update(1550ET): A more carefully scripted public address on the Iran war was given by President Trump from Florida late afternoon, in which he reviewed how the ‘excursion’ in Iran is going. He pledged it’s going to be ended soon, but warned “Iran will be hit harder” if it starts up again, or if Tehran targets global global oil supplies.
But on this issue, Trump issued nothing new on a potential move to militarily enter the Strait of Hormuz to ensure free passage, only assuring it will be made “safe”. He said military objectives are “pretty well complete” but that there are still some very important targets to be hit. Also interesting is that when asked by a reporter, Trump refused to say if new Ayatollah has a target on his back.
US CENTCOM has meanwhile said that thus far in Operation Epic Fury over 5,000 Iranian targets have been hit, and 50 Iranian naval ships have been destroyed or damaged.
Footage from Iran right now looks like something out of a movie. I have no idea what they are hitting or how they are hitting, but this is something completely new for me. pic.twitter.com/yHxbEy32BA
Update(1545ET): President Trump just told CBS News that he believes the US-Israeli war with Iran is “very far ahead of schedule” and so it could be over soon. Considering this whole thing started with talk of a mere four day timeline, then quickly morphed to four or five weeks, before Hegseth declared eight weeks would be needed… is this the White House preparing for a quick draw down and off ramp? Here’s what Trump told CBS by phone:
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”
Oil rapidly dropped… down 30% from overnight highs:
Offramp brewing? Notice below there’s now no mention of removing the regime, and especially important is no mention of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, no mention of destroying Iran’s ability to project power via proxy forces.
SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
– Destroy their ability to launch missiles
– Destroy factories making these missiles
– Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf
Update(1240ET): Iran on Monday is seeking to showcase its continuity and ‘stability’ of government after a week of heavy US-Israeli bombardment failed to produce regime change. Instead, Tehran is vowing to fight back, saying it can keep the war going for as long as needed. Analysts have pointed out Iran needs to inflict a cost on the US and Israel, fearing it will just be attacked again somewhere down the line, even if years from now.
And yet, Trump admin officials have been signaling the American public there won’t be a protracted war. But on this big looming question, The Wall Street Journal is out Monday with the following ominous headline suggesting a lengthy conflict ahead: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son…
The elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, a conservative long close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shows that Trump’s efforts so far to cow the regime into surrender have failed. It also appears to have put hard-liners in firm control of the country, with moderate and reformist factions long marginalized. The 56-year old Khamenei is expected to take a confrontational stance toward the West.
His appointment also shows that Iran won’t acquiesce to Trump’s demand that he approve the country’s new top cleric. Trump told Axios last week that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.”
The younger Khamenei’s ascendance “suggests the continuation of the same old strategy: repression at home and resistance internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
There remains the question of if US and Israeli goals and objectives are truly aligned on the Iran war. Some of Trump’s latest remarks are cause for concern, and highlight the aforementioned question: “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it. We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” Trump asserted.
The President indicated that he would keep the ultimate prerogative but while consulting directly with Netanyahu. “I think it’s mutual, a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.” Some admin officials are likely looking for a quick exit ramp, which would probably involve a politically expedient moment to declare ‘victory’ and get out. But will the Israelis cooperate when/if that moment comes?
Some establishment thinktanks in the US are meanwhile taking note that the administration is struggling with an exit strategy. For example, via the NY-based Soufan Center:
Yet, experts and global officials are quick to point out that all layers of Iran’s existing power structure oppose U.S. influence in Iran and the broader region. Regime officials differ only by degree, and the opportunities to mimic the transition achieved in Venezuela are narrow. When addressing reports last week that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly announced Supreme Leader, was favored to succeed his father, Trump said the pick would be “unacceptable.” Axios quoted him as saying: “We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran…They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.”
Iran’s military and political leadership has reportedly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who as we reported was named Sunday to replace his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. The relatively young 56-year old is not some Delcy Rodriguez character, as he’s a military veteran of the eight year Iran-Iraq war and saw his wife Zahra killed in an Israeli airstrike. He’s said to be the favored IRGC choice and more hardline than his father Ali Khamenei.
The United States and Israel continue to unleash their mass bombing campaign across Iran, with explosions reported in Qom and Tehran hours after weekend Israeli strikes on oil facilities sent toxic smoke and even oil-infused rain across the Iranian capital. There’s been emerging reports suggesting there’s been some divergence or even distance on war aims and strategy between the US and Israel; however, this could also simply be war propaganda put out by officials – and yet probably President Trump doesn’t like to see oil go up in flames.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei of course has a different theory. He said in a fresh statement that the attacks aim “at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches.” He likely has Syria in mind, which Iran propped up on support of Assad for over a decade, but which has been permanently fractured, weakened, and a once significant Russian-supplied anti-air defense and missile arsenal utterly destroyed. The Syria model is something Israeli policy makers have talked about for decades, and Israel appears to be willing to smash an entire Iranian nation of 90+ million.
With this in mind, Baghaei emphasized there’s no halting the fight at this stage: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response,” he said Monday. Trump recently said operations won’t cease until there’s “unconditional surrender” by Iran.
Despite the massive scale of Israeli and American firepower, the strikes clearly have not dismantled the regime’s core structures, arranged precisely to endure such external shocks and maintain power. There’s also not yet been any clear examples of elite fractures.
“We’re not seeing it, and we’re unlikely to see it,” Alan Eyre, a Farsi-speaking former diplomat who served on the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, told The Wall Street Journal. “The IRGC and other elites benefit the most from the status quo and would rather fight than switch.”
The same publication reviews that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, created in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic revolutionary system, includes about 190,000 active-duty troops. It is the most elite core defense perimeter running the war and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, even bypassing Iran’s conventional armed forces. In addition to this, there’s a sort of domestic IRGC internal security force over the country – roughly 600,000 irregular Basij militia members which can mobilize.
Day 9: Iran war is wider and longer:
— new, harder line leader in Iran
— new leader promises “new phase”
— 130+ drones by Iran last 24 hours
— US talking “limited” ground forces
—desalination hit in Bahrain
— oil $102, 4 yr high
— Americans disapprove, 59% v 41%
— Russian… pic.twitter.com/NaL8yvzEtr
At a moment oil prices have surged more than 25% to kick off the week, their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions spread through global markets due to the expanding war – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran would only contemplate a ceasefire for a permanent end to the war on its terms.
He reminded the West that Iran did accept a ceasefire which ended the 12-war in June. Of course, Iran is currently trying to inflict as much pain as possible on the US and Israel before such a potential end – also as Israel continues to experience rare severe damage to its cities, bases and infrastructure from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. On the question of an offramp, below are a couple of unconfirmed developments and headlines:
—Iran are seeking peace talks with the US with Qatar, Oman & Italy involved in mediation: CNN/News18
—Israeli Defense Officials Start to Ask How the Iran War Ends: WAPO (“A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran – and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.”)
The Foreign Ministry’s Baghaei has further addressed President Trump’s ultra-provocative suggestion that Iran’s borders could change. Asked last week whether Iran’s map would look the same after the war, Trump said, “That I can’t tell you. Probably not.”
Baghaei blasted Trump for treating the world like a real estate deal: “The US president and others have made statements about many parts of the world – from Canada to other countries – as if the entire planet were prime real estate and governments were merely real estate agencies,” the FM spokesman said. “For the people of Iran, the map of the country represents everything that every Iranian is proud of and is willing to sacrifice their life to protect.”
As for ‘sacrifice’ – but on the US side of things, an eighth American soldier has now been confirmed killed, one day after Trump oversaw a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base. Interestingly Fox News has come under fire for its mishandling of the coverage.
Trump after seeing oil prices:
Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World,
In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of continuing attacks against the kingdom due to “baseless claims” – including allegations that fighter jets and refueling aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia were preparing to join the war. This after on Saturday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to Arab Gulf states and said Tehran would stop striking neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory; however, those attacks have not actually appeared to stop – as the consensus is that the elite IRGC is in charge, and there’s likely even autonomy of command decisions with units under emergency war orders.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday of Pezeshkian’s ‘apology’ that Iran “has not reflected that statement in practice.” It laid out that Iran has “continued its attacks based on baseless claims that are not grounded in fact, including allegations that the Kingdom had previously clarified were false, namely the claim that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had departed from the Kingdom to participate in the war.”
⚡️Bahrain:The moment the fire broke out in the fuel tanks of BAPCO Energy Company after it was targeted by a swarm of Iranian drones. pic.twitter.com/wHh8aCxkxt
Saudi officials have said its aircraft patrols were purely defensive. “The continued Iranian attacks represent further escalation, with significant implications for bilateral relations both now and in the future,” the ministry said.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, thick smoke has been seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain, according to a witness cited in Al Jazeera and other reports. Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra, whihc injured 32 people overnight. Gulf states continue generally reporting new strikes as Iran carries out retaliatory attacks across the region – after Tehran’s own oil and fuel storage sites have been blown up in major weekend attacks.
Israel’s ‘second front’ in Lebanon also continues to escalate, as multiple Israeli airstrikes struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday, including at least one targeting Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which is a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Hezbollah said Monday that it is busy fighting Israeli forces that landed in eastern Lebanon by helicopter across the Syrian border, the second such operation since the start of the latest conflict with Israel. There’s already a ground war ongoing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah described said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border in eastern Lebanon, an area long under Hezbollah influence.
Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly plan to travel to Israel on Tuesday to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is seen as close to the Israeli government. The trip hasn’t been officially confirmed, however.
Footage from northeast Tehran, oil and energy sites continue to burn:
As for ‘what’s next’ – escalation or offramp… the following from Bloomberg suggests there could be a gateway to ground troops if things take an escalatory war path: “Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near bomb-grade uranium, according to diplomats. He told the Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war will also involve Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bloomberg reviews of prior weekend reporting.
This as there are claims that Washington and Tel Aviv don’t see eye to eye on ultimate war aims and strategy: “Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.” But all of this fresh reporting of ‘distance’ between the close allies who are executing Trump’s Operation Epic Fury could by design be meant to create artificial distance between the president and what might prove to be an unpopular war.
Coal Prices Surge As Energy Shock Forces Power Plant Fuel Switching In Exposed Countries
Asian benchmark Newcastle coal prices jumped more than 9% to $150/ton (as per BBG data) at the start of the week, as energy flows across the Gulf area remain disrupted and transit through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly slowed. The rise in coal prices is being driven by a broader energy shock, with surging gas prices making coal a more economical substitute fuel for power generators.
Last week’s IRGC kamikaze drone attack, which shuttered Qatar’s massive LNG export facility – responsible for roughly 20% of global supply – has been the driving force behind gas-to-coal switching, especially in Europe, as gas prices have soared 50%.
Samantha Dart (Global Co-Head of Commodities Research) penned a note late this weekend on natural gas:
“European natural gas prices (TTF) closed the week up 88% from pre-Iran-conflict levels, at 53 EUR/MWh. For context, approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes flow through the Strait of Hormuz, largely produced by Qatar, and no reroutes exist. This flow is 100% halted at the moment, with Qatari production fully down following a drone attack.
We base-case that Qatari LNG production will be restored by early April, and we have accordingly raised our April TTF forecast to 55 EUR/MWh, well into the 45 EUR/MWh (fuel oil) to 71 EUR/MWh (diesel) gas-to-oil switching range because we think increased fuel switching away from gas will be required to normalize European gas storage ahead of the next winter. We have not changed our 21 EUR/MWh 2027 TTF forecast. In a scenario where the Qatari supply shock lasts over 1 month, we would expect TTF prices to rally further to the mid-70 EURs/MWh, where diesel is currently priced, to incentivize further switching. A scenario where the shock lasts longer than two months would likely lift TTF above 100 EUR/MWh to incentivize broader industrial demand destruction across Europe and Asia.”
Notice that Exhibit 2 above shows TTF is already in the coal-switching range. The rest of Dart’s note can be read here.
In a separate note, UBS analyst Manik Narain warned of EM energy risks if the Hormuz chokepoint remains clogged:
“EM Asia appears most directly at risk, accounting for ~73% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. 40-70% of India, Korea and Thailand’s oil supply transits this route; while Thailand and Taiwan generate 45-60% of electricity from gas, indicating potential price risks to tech and other industrial supply chains if the conflict doesn’t abate soon.”
The duration of the conflict is key because higher NatGas prices will only spur continued gas-to-coal switching.
UBS highlighted that EM power generation in countries such as Mexico, Thailand, and Taiwan remains heavily exposed to oil and gas, leaving electricity systems vulnerable as fuel prices surge. Taiwan stands out, given its major role in the global AI chip supply chain, meaning rising power costs there could have implications far beyond domestic electricity markets.
In yet another brazen attempt to erase history, the London Museum Docklands has half-covered a portrait of 18th-century merchant Beeston Long with Madras cloth, all in the name of “reclaim[ing] Caribbean history.” This symbolic shrouding targets Long’s investments in Jamaican plantations, turning a piece of British maritime legacy into a virtue-signaling prop.
Critics see this as part of the left’s relentless campaign to erase uncomfortable truths about the past, prioritizing feelings over history and sidelining the achievements of figures who built modern Britain. With new panels lecturing visitors that such artworks can “obscure” or “sanitise” links to slavery and “evoke emotional responses,” the museum is pushing a narrative that gives “voice to those whose cultures have been impacted by colonialism.”
The portrait of Beeston Long, a former Bank of England governor who oversaw Docklands expansion, now hangs partially obscured by cloth exported to the Caribbean during colonial times. Museum officials claim this intervention helps “reclaim the histories of colonised Caribbean nations” and celebrates the Windrush Generation’s influence.
Museum covers up portrait of former Bank of England governor who owned slaves to ‘reclaim Caribbean history’ https://t.co/w1KJ9mmWVd
They assert the Caribbean community was “essential” to the area and “invited to migrate to Britain to help rebuild the ‘mother country’” between 1948 and 1971, noting arrivals “created the Tower Hamlets we know today.”
Displays further declare: “Many of the objects in this gallery were created for and through the oppression of enslaved people. European colonialists exploited African and Asian peoples and lands relentlessly.”
To top it off, an installation called Holding Emotions offers visitors ways to “reclaim wellbeing” and “ground yourself,” complete with doodling tips and comfy seats for those triggered by history.
This isn’t an isolated incident. Recall the removal of Robert Milligan’s statue outside the same museum in 2020 amid Black Lives Matter unrest, which remains in storage. National Museum Cardiff yanked a painting of colonial governor Thomas Picton in 2021 to “decolonise” its collection.
As we’ve covered before, this woke purge has targeted icons across the West. In Wales, the government flagged statues of “old white men” like Admiral Horatio Nelson – an “aggressor who conquered peoples” – General Arthur Wellesley, Charles, 2nd Earl Grey (an abolitionist), and Winston Churchill for removal, claiming they fuel perceptions of white male dominance and “can be offensive to people today.”
Across the pond, Theodore Roosevelt’s equestrian statue at New York’s American Museum of Natural History was covered and removed in 2021, labeled a symbol of “racial hierarchy” despite honoring him as a naturalist. It was shipped to North Dakota on “indefinite loan.”
A statue of Thomas Jefferson, who was the third president of the United States, has been removed from New York City Hall after a unanimous vote by a committee, because of his links to the slave trade.
But there’s hope on the horizon. Last year, President Trump signed an executive order to restore improperly removed statues and monuments, overhauling the Smithsonian to ditch “divisive, race-centered” narratives and return to “truthful and uplifting views of American history.”
The order, titled “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History,” tasks officials with reviewing and reinstating monuments taken down in the past five years, aiming to make museums “educate rather than indoctrinate” by July 4, 2026. As the White House stated, many were removed to “perpetuate a false revision of history.”
This latest London fiasco underscores how leftist institutions continue their assault on Western heritage, using “reclamation” as cover to divide and demoralize. Many see it as cultural vandalism, a removal of the unvarnished story of our past – warts and all – for future generations.
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Gulf Firms Seek Millions In Political Violence Coverage Amid Rising Tensions
Companies across the Gulf are rushing to purchase political violence insurance as regional fighting intensifies, seeking protection for major infrastructure and commercial properties against the growing risk of attacks and collateral damage, according to FT.
Insurers and brokers say they have received hundreds of inquiries in recent days from asset owners looking for coverage that protects against war-related threats. The policies typically cover damage caused by terrorism, missile debris, civil unrest, strikes, riots and other forms of political instability.
Demand has surged as the conflict in the Middle East expands, with Iran and allied groups launching missile and drone strikes against Israel and nearby countries following a joint U.S.–Israeli bombing campaign. Investors and businesses in Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Oman are increasingly concerned about the possibility that the violence could spill over into neighboring economies.
Industry experts say the financial impact of the conflict could be unusually large. Fergus Critchley, global head of terrorism and political violence at broker WTW, warned the current crisis could produce losses “significantly larger and more catastrophic” than those seen in recent years.
FT writes that much of the new demand is coming from Western companies operating in the Gulf, which insurers say are often considered more likely targets. Raj Rana, who leads war and terrorism coverage at broker Bowring Marsh, said his firm alone has fielded more than 50 requests for political violence coverage since last weekend.
Requests have come from a range of sectors, including renewable energy and hospitality. Solar projects in Saudi Arabia and hotels in Bahrain and Qatar have all sought protection as companies worry about both direct attacks and indirect damage such as falling shrapnel from intercepted missiles.
Digital infrastructure has also faced threats. Drone strikes this week targeted data centers operated by Amazon in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, according to security experts who suspect Iranian involvement. Microsoft said its regional operations had not been disrupted.
Some businesses in the region already carried terrorism insurance before the conflict escalated. However, brokers now recommend broader political violence coverage, which also protects against unrest such as riots, strikes and civil disturbances.
The surge in demand has pushed premiums sharply higher. Insurers say prices rose early in the week to several times their previous levels. Previously, coverage for political violence on an energy project in Saudi Arabia or the UAE could cost less than 1 percent of the insured value. By Thursday, the cost had climbed to roughly five times that rate. For example, securing $10 million in coverage for a $20 million project could now cost about $500,000, compared with under $100,000 before the latest escalation.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has sharply criticized judicial decisions blocking the detention of migrants transferred to Albania, citing the case of a Moroccan rapist with a long criminal record whom authorities say they cannot detain or deport after he applied for international protection.
Speaking to RTL 102.5, Meloni said some court rulings preventing the continued detention of migrants transferred to Italian processing centers in Albania were “surreal” and undermined public safety.
“I also wonder where the feminists are in the face of these events,” Meloni said during the interview, referring to the case of one of the migrants, Moroccan national Fathallah Ouardi, who had been transferred to Albania but was later returned to Italy after judges refused to validate his detention.
Meloni said the man had a lengthy criminal record. “The record of one of these migrants includes convictions for drug dealing, resisting a public official, conspiracy to commit sexual assault, and gang rape,” she said, as cited by Secolo d’Italia.
According to the prime minister, the court rejected the detention order after the migrant applied for international protection.
“This is someone who entered Italy illegally, started dealing drugs, and gang-raped a woman — we can’t detain him, we can’t send him to Albania, we can’t repatriate him, and we’re almost forced to grant him international protection,” she said, adding that such decisions raise serious questions about the protection of victims and public confidence in the justice system.
“How can we guarantee the safety of citizens like this?” she asked. “These decisions are surreal; they affect not the government’s work but citizens’ rights, first and foremost, the right to safety.”
“What trust can a woman who has been gang-raped have in the system if her rapist can’t even be deported?” she added. “I also wonder where the feminists of ‘Non una di meno’ are on these issues.”
The Italian leader also defended her government’s migration policies, including the controversial use of offshore migrant processing centers in Albania.
“I am determined to do what the citizens have asked me to do: a tough policy on irregular immigration, including with new tools like the centers in Albania,” Meloni said.
“Even though some are trying everything they can to prevent it, I am determined on this and am willing to work three times, four times, ten times harder if necessary.”
Remix News provided reporting this week on another Moroccan national accused of raping a 26-year-old woman in Bottanuco in what was a sustained attack over the course of an evening. The suspect was born in 1987 and has accumulated a series of criminal charges and convictions in Italy over more than a decade.
Authorities say he was investigated for drug trafficking between 2014 and 2015 and charged with illegal immigration in 2015. Records also list illegal entry and residence in Trentino in 2016 and theft in 2017.
Court documents further list convictions including resisting a public official and drug trafficking in 2014, as well as participation in sexual assault and gang sexual assault in 2018. A further drug trafficking conviction was recorded in 2025.
Something happened last week that most people scrolled past.
Two Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates were struck during Iran’s retaliation for U.S. military action. Another facility in Bahrain was reportedly damaged after a drone landed nearby. The earlier strikes that triggered the retaliation were said to have used AI-assisted targeting systems.
It was a brief moment in the news cycle, quickly overtaken by the next political story. But the implications are difficult to ignore.
Artificial intelligence has now crossed into active geopolitical conflict.
The infrastructure that powers the digital world—the same systems that store family photos, run businesses, and answer questions on our phones—has become strategic wartime infrastructure. Algorithms woven quietly into civilian technology are now helping guide decisions about where weapons land.
Humanity crossed a threshold, and most of us scrolled past it.
But we know from history that major technological shifts rarely announce themselves with a single dramatic moment. They appear first as signals in small news items, policy disputes, unexplained departures by insiders.
Another signal appeared almost at the same time.
The federal government recently removed the artificial intelligence systems developed by Anthropic from its networks. Shortly afterward, OpenAI stepped in with a defense agreement of its own.
The public does not know the full story behind the change. We do not know exactly what demands were made behind closed doors, what ethical guardrails were contested, or why one of the world’s leading AI companies was suddenly pushed out of federal systems.
But the episode itself is another signal.
And yet another signal has been appearing quietly inside the AI industry itself: the departure of safety researchers.
Over the past several years, numerous high-profile researchers tasked with studying the risks and safety of advanced AI systems have left their posts at leading companies and research labs. Many of these departures have come with little public explanation.
Those researchers rarely describe the internal debates they witnessed. Few are in a position to do so.
But patterns like this matter. When the people closest to a powerful technology begin stepping away quietly, it often means they have seen tensions the public has not yet been invited to examine.
History has seen moments like this before.
In the early 1940s, scientists working on what became the Manhattan Project realized they were building something unprecedented. Some raised concerns about what the technology might mean once it left the laboratory. But those debates happened largely behind closed doors. The public understood the stakes only after the technology had already been used.
Artificial intelligence may be unfolding along a similar pattern. We are seeing the signals now—researchers leaving, governments disputing ethical guardrails, and AI systems appearing inside real geopolitical conflict.
Yet the public conversation about artificial intelligence is still shaped by a set of assumptions that make these signals harder to recognize.
Misconception #1: AI Is ‘Just a Tool’
This analogy is comforting. We imagine AI the way we imagine a calculator or a word processor—machines that perform tasks efficiently while remaining firmly under human control.
Tools can become strategic assets in war. But they do not generate their own outputs in ways their creators sometimes struggle to explain, nor do they require constant negotiation over the ethical boundaries of their behavior.
Modern AI systems are not programmed line by line in the traditional sense. They are trained on vast datasets and learn patterns within that data. Their behavior emerges from statistical relationships rather than explicit instructions. AI researchers describe these systems as “grown,” not built. And that makes them fundamentally different from the tools we are used to controlling.
Misconception #2: AI Is Neutral
AI systems are trained on human-generated information. That information reflects human biases, historical conflicts, and uneven representation.
When an AI system generates an answer, it synthesizes patterns it absorbed from that material.
AI has developed fluent language skills that can create the illusion of objectivity. But confident language is not the same as truth.
The recent disputes between governments and AI companies illustrate this clearly. Debates over surveillance limits or autonomous weapons are not simply technical questions. They are moral ones. Guardrails exist precisely because the systems themselves are not neutral.
Misconception #3: Humans Fully Control AI
Traditional software behaves according to explicit instructions written by programmers.
Modern AI systems operate differently. Their outputs are probabilistic, generated through layers of learned relationships inside the model.
Developers are now using AI systems to build AI systems and to manage other AI systems. They are using AI to write code that in the past they would have written themselves, and it’s happening so fast that they cannot monitor or even understand every line of code being generated by systems that do not sleep.
Control, in this environment, is not a switch. It is more like a moving boundary that no one has ever seen before, and the language to even define it is still in its infancy.
Misconception #4: The Experts Know Where This Is Going
In most scientific fields, experts disagree within a fairly narrow range. In artificial intelligence, the range of opinion is unusually wide.
Some researchers believe AI will revolutionize medicine and scientific discovery. Others warn the technology could produce serious societal disruption if development outruns human wisdom.
Among those raising such concerns is Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel Prize winner and one of the foundational figures of modern AI research.
That range of opinion does not prove disaster is coming. But it does reveal that even the people building these systems do not fully agree on where they lead.
Artificial intelligence is integrating rapidly into the systems that shape modern life—communication, commerce, national security, and governance.
We are seeing signals across all of these domains. We can see clearly that AI is shaping our future whether we like it or not. The question is whether we will recognize the signals in time to understand what is unfolding, or whether we will wait, as societies often do, until the consequences make the signals impossible to ignore.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
