By Molly Schwartz, Cross-ASset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Negotiations between the US and Iran are going nowhere. In fact, they’re not really even happening at all. Over the weekend, Axios reported that Iran gave the US a proposal to reopen the Strait — not to end the war. The proposal includes extending the ceasefire and an assertion that any conversations about Iran’s nuclear program are off the table until the Strait is open and the US blockade is lifted. The US has not indicated whether it will accept or reject the proposal at the time of writing.

Assuming the US does agree to extend its indefinite ceasefire, a flimsy ceasefire extension, even if agreed to by both parties, holds little water. Remember, keeping the Strait open was a condition of the current ceasefire as agreed to on April 8, and we can all see how well that held up. Just take a look at the prices at the pump.

While conversations between the US and Iran stall, Iran is making friends elsewhere. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Putin yesterday, as Bloomberg reported that Araghchi told Putin he is “committed to strengthening the country’s partnership with Russia” and that “the Iranian people are able to ‘resist US aggression and will be able to overcome it.’”

As Iran and Russia are making nice, the US and Germany are not. During a visit to a school in western Germany, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the Trump Administration was being “humiliated” by Iran: “The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.” Trump has not commented on Merz’ claims at the time of writing.

The longer the Strait remains closed, the longer the European economy, and energy complex, is squeezed. Germany has rejected Trump’s calls to join the war under NATO, despite German leaders softly echoing support of US military efforts. Europe has drafted a plan to re-open the Strait after the war has ended, that is not enough to appease Trump, who has made his demands for NATO participation in the Iran war clear. But the question remains just how much collateral damage Europe is willing to be subject to in the pursuit of keeping its hands clean.

Europe’s reliance on energy from the Middle East and direct flows through the Strait of Hormuz suggest that they are in for more pain than the US under a prolonged closure. At the same time, they don’t have a fanatic obduracy to tolerate it like the Iran (or rather, the IRGC at the expense of the Iranian people). If negotiations fail to result in a somewhat peaceful re-opening of the Strait and conclusion of the US naval blockade, Europe may have no choice but to get involved.

It’s probable that the Trump Administration is aware of this. Trump has lambasted European leaders for refusing to support the US and in some cases, outright refusing to cooperate. If the US keeps the Strait closed and inflicts enough second-hand damage on Europe, Trump may be able to achieve the NATO military “cooperation” he has been asking for.

Crude oil futures have continued to grind higher, trading up to highs of $109/bbl yesterday. Futures prices have started to converge with the physical market, which is currently pricing crude at $113/bbl, narrowing the spread from highs of $35.9 earlier this month to only $4, which would be more consistent with levels seen pre-war.

Meanwhile, the Fed drama saga continues. The path to Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair seems to have cleared as the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has dropped its criminal probe into Powell with regard to the Federal Reserve’s renovation budget. However, whether Powell will stay on the Board is not yet certain. While Powell’s term as Chair ends in May, he is allowed to stay on the Board of Governors until January 2028.

Despite it being a highly popular question from reporters during the Fed decision press conference, Powell had been tight lipped about his plans for a while, until confirming more recently that he would stay on the Board until the DOJ investigation levied against him was concluded.

However, while the DOJ has dismissed the case, that doesn’t mean that Powell’s troubles are over. Rather, this means that the case has now landed on the desk of the Fed’s Office of Inspector General (OIG), though according to the Fed’s own article about the renovation, the OIG has had full access to all financial records and information throughout the duration of the project.

Given the dropped charges against Powell, that has opened up Senator Thom Tillis to vote to officially confirm Warsh as Fed Chair. Whether or not the Fed meeting tomorrow will be Powell’s last is still TBD. Read more from our Fed whisperer, Philip Marey, here.

A little farther north, Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced the creation of a Canadian sovereign wealth fund, called the “Canada Strong Fund.” The fund is designed to further lower barriers to business and investment in Canada—something the Carney has spoken about extensively as a part of his mission—by “investing in strategic Canadian projects and companies.”

A more financially-savvy Canadian government does not come without drawbacks. Carney has recently come under scrutiny by some after his ethics disclosure, which has led some to question the dissonance in Carney’s insistence that Canada needs to diversify away from the US, while he himself is heavily invested there.

Despite war (and rising gas prices) now fully embedded in respondents’ minds, it is perhaps surprising that The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence rose considerably more than expected to 92.8 in April (89.0 exp) from an upwardly revised 92.2.

Present Situation dipped very modestly from 124.1 to 123.8 (120.1 exp) while Expectations rose from 71.0 to 72.2 (69.2 exp)

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest headline print in 2026.

“Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”

While the overall trend is still lower, The Board’s indicator signaled a pick up in the labor market…

Source: Bloomberg

A two-week ceasefire and a rebound in stock market indices within the survey-sample period (April 1–22) likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March.

Still, consumers remained wary.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now ticked up.

Among demographic groups, confidence continued to trend downward on a six-month moving average basis for consumers aged 35 and up while younger consumers were a tad more confident in April. Respondents under 35 remained the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least.

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence improved among Millennials and Gen Z but declined among older generations. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis varied, but most income groups expressed less optimism.

By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence fell for Independents and improved slightly for Democrats.

Federal agents from the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) executed court-authorized search warrants at more than 20 locations across the Minneapolis area early Tuesday morning, targeting businesses primarily linked to the Somali-American community as part of an ongoing criminal fraud investigation.

Fox News congressional correspondent Bill Melugin reported that the Department of Justice confirmed the operation to the network, stating it involves “court-authorized law enforcement activity as part of an ongoing fraud investigation.” A separate DHS statement emphasized that HSI, working with federal, state, and local partners, carried out the warrants “relating to the rampant fraud of U.S. taxpayers dollars.” Sources indicated approximately 22 warrants were served, explicitly tied to fraud schemes rather than immigration enforcement.

BREAKING: DOJ confirms to @FoxNews that FBI and HSI agents are currently raiding 20+ locations in the Minneapolis, MN area in relation to ongoing federal fraud investigations. Sources tell FOX the locations are largely Somali linked businesses, including the infamous “Quality…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 28, 2026

One prominent target was the Quality Learning Center (aka “Quality Learing Center”) on Nicollet Avenue. The site, which previously operated as Salama Child Care Center, received roughly $1.9 million in Minnesota Child Care Assistance Program funds in fiscal year 2025 alone. It gained national attention in late December 2025 after independent journalist Nick Shirley released a video showing the center appearing largely empty during business hours, with a prominently misspelled sign. Shirley alleged widespread “ghost” operations billing government programs for nonexistent services and children.

NEW: The Quality Learing Center in Minneapolis is now “trucking” in children after Nick Shirley’s viral video, according to the New York Post.

The Post reports that the parking lot at the infamous Quality Learing Center is now “bustling with kids.”

“We’ve never seen kids go… pic.twitter.com/K578UTvLXG

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 30, 2025

The center voluntarily surrendered its state license in early January amid heightened scrutiny. It had a prior federal footprint: in May 2015, the same location was raided by the FBI and Minnesota DHS over allegations of billing state programs for non-existent children, leading to license revocation actions for safety violations.

A Pattern of Massive Fraud

Today’s raids continue a months-long federal surge into Minnesota’s social-services programs, which have been plagued by some of the largest fraud cases in recent U.S. history. The most notorious remains Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that prosecutors say orchestrated a $250+ million scheme to steal federal child nutrition funds during the COVID-19 pandemic through fake meal sites, inflated attendance rosters, and money laundering. Dozens of defendants—predominantly Somali-American—have been charged, with multiple convictions and sentencings continuing into 2026.

Other active investigations include:

• Autism and early intervention (EIDBI) services fraud
• Housing Stabilization Services
• Integrated Community Supports
• Medicaid personal-care assistance schemes
• SNAP benefit trafficking (including “Operation Cold SNAP” raids in April 2026)

In January, Federal authorities reported issuing over 1,750 subpoenas, executing more than 130 search warrants, and interviewing over 1,000 witnesses across these cases.

Homeland Security Investigations @ICEGov are on the ground in Minneapolis right now conducting a massive investigation on childcare and other rampant fraud.

More coming. pic.twitter.com/0DhyKedSyu

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@EnvoyNoem) December 29, 2025

FBI Director Kash Patel publicly described the Minnesota situation as “the tip of a very large iceberg,” prompting a surge of bureau resources to the state. DHS has conducted hundreds of door-to-door inspections under initiatives such as Operation Twin Shield.

Political and Community Context

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison have faced sharp criticism from congressional Republicans and House Oversight committees for what critics call inadequate oversight of high-risk providers and slow state-level responses. State officials have countered that many centers serve legitimate low-income families (including large Somali-American populations) and that enforcement actions predate viral videos.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, whose district encompasses much of the affected Minneapolis area, has condemned the fraud as “reprehensible” while warning against broad stigmatization of the Somali community.

Her office has distanced itself from charged individuals, though some Republican lawmakers have pointed to past legislative efforts (such as expansions of child nutrition programs) and constituent ties as areas of scrutiny. No charges have been filed against Omar or her immediate family in these matters.

Somali community leaders have expressed concerns about economic fallout and reputational harm to legitimate businesses, while federal prosecutors stress that the investigations target criminal conduct and protect funds intended for vulnerable populations.

As of early Tuesday, no arrests or specific new charges from today’s warrants have been publicly detailed. More information is expected from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Minnesota, the FBI’s Minneapolis Field Office, and DHS. 

Summary

• Trump TS claim: Tehran has informed Washington they are in a “state of collapse” and that the Iranians want the US to “open the Hormuz Strait” – as ‘tank tops’ loom.

• Trump doesn’t appear open to Iran’s proposal which hinges on US naval blockade ending & nuclear issue being pushed to future negotiations (CNN).

• First crude-laden Japanese tanker from Saudi port exits Hormuz Strait successfully without Iranian interference.

• Iranian analyst describes that Tehran believes it can outlast Trump & the standoff with US in Hormuz, citing “munitions, markets, and the midterms.”

*  *  *

Trump claims Iranians in ‘State of Collapse’

Literally one minute before market-open, and President Trump issues the following big claim: he says that Tehran has informed Washington they are in a “state of collapse” and that the Iranians want the US to “open the Hormuz Strait”. Of course, even if it were true, why would the Iranians admit such a thing to their enemy during a state of war?

There have been some signs of political fracture – especially tensions between IRGC and civilian leadership – but so far the evidence has been anecdotal at best. Currently the internal Iranian government debate seems to be on whether to talk to the US or not – but again, amid the fog of war… all Western MSM can do is speculate, aside from the rare Iranian ‘anonymous’ source that might whisper in a reporter’s ear.

Oil Rises to 3-week High as Trump Doesn’t Appear Open To Iran Proposal

Reporting from Monday evening and overnight says President Trump doesn’t appear open to Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, which hinges on the US naval blockade being lifted but pushes the nuclear issue off to later negotiations. As a result, oil prices have continued to rise, climbing above $110 a barrel Tuesday morning – a first in three weeks, amid concerns of a prolonged strait closure. As for the latest tankers to actually make it through, CBS describes:

Four civilian ships appeared to leave the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday without Iranian interference, including a Japanese oil tanker carrying some two million barrels of crude from Saudi Arabia. 

The Panama-flagged crude oil tanker Idemitsu Maru called at Saudi Arabia’s Juamyah industrial port in early March, according to open source data from the MarineTraffic ship tracking website. For the past week it had remained anchored off the coast of Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf, until late Monday, when it sailed toward Iran’s Larak island in the Strait of Hormuz. 

On Tuesday morning, tracking data showed the vessel passing south of Iran’s Larak island, which analysts say the regime had used as a “toll booth” to collect fees from some ships before military authorities declared the strait entirely closed again last week.  

The White House has insisted that there would be no scheme for Iran collecting tolls as part of any future deal, but the Iranians appear to be forcing the issue, and have said the funds will help with the country’s reconstruction after the devastation wrought by US-Israeli bombing raids.

Three M’s

Independent news organization Drop Site says that Iran is now setting its own terms for ending the war as President Trump’s narrative on negotiations flails. One Iranian analyst has said that Tehran believes it has the three M’s on its side: “munitions, markets, and the midterms.”

The report cites Hassan Ahmadian, a well-known Iranian analyst and associate professor at the University of Tehran, who explains: “The Iranians are saying time is working in our favor for the three Ms: munitions, markets, and the midterms. These three Ms help Iran in its position and weaken US positions.”

“Obviously in the U.S., they want something to say, ‘We squeezed Iran and we got this.’ My perception is that the Iranians are keen to deny the United States that – they wouldn’t give what Trump wants as a victory,” he added.

A separate Iranian official, privy to negotiations and so remaining anonymous, stated: “We’re currently moving forward with our own design, and we feel continuing negotiations doesn’t make sense until the U.S. government lifts the maritime blockade.”

“The scope of the conflict has expanded, and naturally the issue is no longer purely nuclear,” the official added. Indeed, the latest proposal for ceasefire out of Tehran focuses on the US Navy ending its blockade, and leaves the nuclear issue for future consideration, given it has proven an impasse in the prior Islamabad talks.

But Washington as been asserting its own leverage:

New reporting from Bloomberg shows Iran has 22 more days of available storage.

“The Islamic Republic has enough unused storage capacity to last another 12 to 22 days, Kpler analysts wrote in a report Monday.”

But even more importantly, they highlighted the time horizon until…

— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) April 28, 2026

‘Tank Tops’ Loom

President Trump explained – in his own inimitable manner – what we described last week: time is running out for Tehran… as oil blockade stalls the flow state of Iran’s economy permanently… 

Trump told Fox News on Sunday that the US blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports is putting major pressure on the country’s export infrastructure: 

“When you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them — they have no ships because of the blockade — what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth.”

“It’s something that happens where it just explodes. And they say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”

As Hugh Hendry noted, time is running out for Iran:

“Iran’s oil system is not built to pause. It’s built to flow. It’s a flow system.

Oil cannot simply sit in the ground while strategists argue over maps and how much uranium dust to give over. It has to move. Iran and its system has to move continuously from the rock underground to the tanker in the harbor to the Chinese buyer in Asia.

Pause long enough, and the whole machine breaks.

Interrupt that flow. And the problem isn’t just lost revenues of like forty, fifty, sixty billion dollars. It’s the least of your concerns. The problem is physical and is irreversible.

Because when you suddenly shut the well, remember there’s no physical storage. They pump, they load, they ship.

If they can’t load, if they can’t ship, they can’t pump. And when you suddenly shut the wells, the pressure underground drops fucking fast. 

Do you know what happens?

The heavy, sticky crap in the oil, it gums up, gums up in the tiny holes within the rocks and becomes like glue. It traps the oil. It makes it really fucking hard to extract. And once that damage is done, it’s permanent. You lose a big chunk of the oil. 

The more Iran is actively either through theater or through bluff, the more that it sits in a standoff, the more it is actively destroying the one thing that it actually depends upon. 

That’s the trap. And you’re not reading in in the press, but you’re damn well reading it on your screens.

Because this is where the gap between the narrative of the media and the price stops being subtle and irrelevant, and it’s why stock markets have priced something entirely differently.

The Iranian system, the adversary, cannot afford to stay disrupted without hurting itself. That’s what’s in the equity market’s price.”

We covered the timeline for ‘tank tops’ here in detail – less than 15 days before shut-ins begin.

Tehran Won’t Talk Without JD Vance Present

The failed second round of Pakistan talks, which fell apart before they even began, was supposed to see Vice President JD Vance heading up the US side. This was reportedly something the Iranian side desired to see, and is likely still what its negotiating team would rather be dealing with. On the other hand, per Drop Site, “Iran has total disdain for Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and views him as both oblivious of diplomatic processes and totally ignorant of technical issues.”

This is because “Kushner is viewed by Iran as Israel’s man at the table.” This has led to the following view and alleged conclusion: “Iran, the senior official said, does not see any reason to deal with these two without a figure like Vice President JD Vance present.”

Bombs have grown quiet across the Gulf amid the extended ceasefire, with the exception that fighting in southern Lebanon still rages, despite the US-mediated ‘Lebanon ceasefire’:

⚡️Hezbollah publishes footage of them striking 2 Merkava tanks belonging to the Israeli army in southern Lebanon with FPV drones pic.twitter.com/daqtTEqA4q

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 27, 2026

Last week as an avalanche of headlines said that a second round of talks were imminent, and after the Iranian foreign minister had already landed in Islamabad for bilateral discussions with Pakistani mediators, there were premature reports that Vance was en route to Islamabad. The mainstream media claimed that it was Iran essentially begging Washington for negotiations. “But Vance, it turned out, was not on a plane, and Iran continued to deny it had any intention of meeting with U.S. officials in Pakistan,” Drop Site underscores.

Rosneft’s sprawling oil refinery in southern port town of Tuapse has been struck by Ukrainian drones once again, unleashing a huge fire and significant destruction, in what marks the third such attack just this month.

“Another serious incident has occurred in Tuapse. A large-scale fire broke out at an oil refinery due to an enemy drone attack,” Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram, amid large-scale evacuations of the civilian population from the area.

Regional aviation hubs in nearby Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, and Sochi were closed as a result of the blaze which sent a large black smoke plume into the air stretching for at least 100km, regional reports indicate.

“For the safety of residents living near the refinery, evacuations are underway. A temporary accommodation center has been set up at local School No. 6. I urge residents to follow all recommendations,” the regional government statement continued.

According to Ukrainian media:

The Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel CyberBoroshno reported that at least four tanks were burning at the refinery following the strike.

“If in previous attacks the tank farm was hit, this time the refinery itself was directly targeted… There is a possibility that the fire could spread to neighboring tanks,” the report said.

Reuters says that as a result of the several waves of attacks on Tuapse, operations at the plant have remained halted since April 16 – which was the first big strike of the month.

One is left wondering, what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:

“Intensive efforts are underway” to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: “As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time.”

Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken “at an appropriate level.”

The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.

Rusya’nın Tuapse Petrol Rafinerisi, düzenlenen dron saldırısı sonucu yeniden alev aldı. Görüntülerde, önceki saldırılardan sağlam kalan yeni depolama tanklarının isabet alarak patladığı görülüyor. pic.twitter.com/HLc61fGH8B

— The Bitig (@thebitig) April 28, 2026

The attacks have made parts of the sky black and the aftermath poses a safety risk for residents, also with reports of ‘toxic rain’ over the town, as the environmental situation spiraling – also with significant amounts of crude said to be leaking into the Black Sea.

Currently the globe’s attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

UBS consumer analyst Michael Lasser told clients that a further rise in e-commerce penetration, from about 22% today to as high as 27%, could force the closure of 40,000 U.S. retail stores by 2030.

The warning comes as more than 10,000 stores have closed since late 2023, and shows how the shift to e-commerce is pressuring brick-and-mortar retail footprints nationwide.

Lasser’s forecast is that e-commerce penetration rates in the U.S. will top 27% by the end of the decade, up from the current 22%.

Many of the projected closures will be across clothing, consumer electronics, home furnishings, office supplies, and sporting goods.

The advent of the internet and e-commerce has certainly put pressure on retail stores over the last two decades.

Also, the analysts point out the population winter that Elon Musk has warned about. The lack of a robust new consumer segment will put pressure on the consumer economy in the decades ahead. 

However, stores will continue to play a central role in retail ecosystems.

Big-box retailers have accounted for much of the growth in retail footprint.

The forecasted loss of 40,000 retail stores by the end of the decade would have a meaningful impact on the labor market and commercial real estate. Also, this is yet more evidence that the death of mom-and-pop retailing will accelerate. 

Professional subscribers can read the full U.S. Retail note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Trump’s blockade is having a predictable effect on Iran’s economy and oil industry, with reports that the regime is scrambling to repurpose old and rusty tankers as floating storage.  Kharg Island is hitting capacity and the results could lead to disaster for Iran’s oil wells. 

The regime is reportedly moving to expand crude storage at the island, where around 90% of their energy exports are processed, by reactivating a 30-year-old crude carrier called M/T Nasha.  It’s a bad sign for Iran, indicating that the country’s main oil hub is nearing its onshore storage limit.  Maritime analysts say the vessel, which had been anchored empty for years, is being repositioned as floating storage to absorb crude that still has to move out of the system. 

To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement. She’s a 30yo VLCC that’s been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/jFhq2xP0mU

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 23, 2026

But how much time will decommissioned tankers buy Iran?  Current estimates indicate Kharg Island has roughly 13 million barrels of spare onshore storage remaining at the terminal, while net inflows are running at about 1.0 million to 1.1 million barrels per day.  At that pace, storage could be filled in about 12 to 13 days, which places the saturation point in late April to early May if current flows hold.  A large tanker gives them another potential 2 million barrels of capacity.  In other words, not much. 

This data is a near match to JP Morgan’s recent assessment that Iran has between 20 – 26 days of capacity (including emergency measures) before they hit the wall and are forced to shut down their oil fields. 

Trump’s assertion on Sunday that Iran’s oil infrastructure may “explode in three days” due to the blockade might be a bit optimistic, but with the threat of overcapacity it is likely that the Iranians will be forced to the negotiating table in the near term.

The regime’s only other option is to divert the oil away from Kharg to the Jask Oil Terminal at Kooh Mobarak using the Goreh-Jask pipeline.  But this storage is limited and may already be full.

There are also limited reports that Iran is increasing “flaring” at wells to burn off excess.  To keep wells operating safely (avoiding sudden shutdowns that can cause permanent geological issues), operators are flaring off excess associated gas (and possibly some liquid byproducts) at a heightened rate.

If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future.  Recovery is expensive and difficult. 

If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed.  Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. 

The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. 

There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks.  The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.      

Via Remix News,

Two young men, both adults, suspected of gang rape in an Airbnb in the France’s Décines-Charpieu (Rhône), have been released from custody, shocking the family of one of the victims.

The victim’s lawyer, David Metaxas, spoke on behalf of the victim’s relatives, who told LyonMag that the judge’s decision was “incomprehensible.” Not only have both men been released to roam freely in the streets, but the judge did not even issue a restriction on contact with the victim, which means the two men could approach her once again.

Last week, the two men, aged 20 and 21, were arrested for the rape involving the 12-year-old, as well as a 16-year-old girl who had allegedly led the younger victim to the apartment. After reportedly exchanging messages with the two young men via Snapchat, the teen encouraged her younger friend to come with her to the Airbnb. Alcohol and drugs were allegedly consumed, with an excessive amount of hard liquor given to the 12-year-old.

Falling unconscious, the younger victim recounted waking up “lying on a bed covered in blood,” before realizing what had happened, recounts Lyon Mag. It was when she turned her phone back on that her mother was able to geolocate her, allowing the police to intervene. She is said to have run away from her home in Givors before the incident.

However, now the perpetrators are free. The family of the 12-year-old says her safety and innocence were tossed aside from the get-go, with police allegedly not even asking her to file a complaint initially.

“They were very poorly received, as if they were a nuisance,” said David Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old. He pointed to a total lack of support and guidance, adding the very obvious and visible signs of rape suffered by the young girl.

“It is unacceptable that the form to file a complaint was not given to them by the police. It must be remembered that they were dealing with a young girl who had been deflowered, anally and orally penetrated, and who had wounds all over her body.”

Unfortunately, the 16-year-old girl and the accused men all stated that the girl was consenting. “Everyone agrees that she was consenting, or even that she was provoking, even though she is 12 years old and was completely drunk to the point of losing consciousness,” he said, adding that at the hearing, the girl was in an advanced state of shock.

“The lack of coercive measures concerning the suspects […] is incomprehensible,” stated Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old, as quoted by LyonMag. He added that the court has failed to demand any judicial supervision or even a restraining order on the alleged perpetrators.  

“They can, if they wish, contact and visit the young girl whenever they want,”  he warns.  “Therefore, there is total incomprehension, not to mention anger, on the part of the family.”

As for the young victim, she allegedly collapsed in the lawyer’s office upon hearing of the decision and was taken to the hospital. “She is in a state of total shock. She couldn’t utter a single word in my office. The justice system needs to take charge of this case very quickly,” he stated.

Metaxas insists he will not let the matter be and will be asking the public prosecutor that “a specialized service be put in charge of the investigation with the implementation of coercive measures to ensure the safety of this minor.”

The two men are still under investigation.

Read more here…

The US Air Force has reportedly opened an investigation into a fire that broke out over the weekend at RAF Fairford in the UK. Crucially, it is a key US-allied base hosting a US bomber unit carrying out strikes on Iran as part of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.

The fire started early Sunday inside an “old or disused building” at the airbase, a UK defense ministry spokesperson has said. The Pentagon is investigating alongside local partners: “An investigation has been initiated and is ongoing. More information will be released as it becomes available,” a statement said.

No injuries have been reported and officials said the blaze was quickly continued, with no further threat posed to the base and surrounding community. But it was clearly very large at one point, video evidence shows.

The US was permitted starting in March to use the base for Iran-related operations. The Telegraph describes further of the fire:

Several crews were deployed to the incident at RAF Fairford in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Footage taken overnight appears to show smoke billowing from what is claimed to be the base’s commissary, a shop that provides food and equipment. Other pictures from the scene show that the building’s roof collapsed as firefighters brought the blaze under control.

Authorities are suspicious there may have been some kind of act of sabotage at the base, given widespread local opposition to its us by American forces to bomb Iran.

There’s also been chatter of Irani-linked ‘terror cells’ in Europe. According to more from The Telegraph:

While some welcomed the arrival, there had been protests against the decision, with around 200 people gathered at the base on Saturday. Protesters held signs that read “No war on Iran”, “US out of British bases” and “Stop Trump’s deadly wars”.

The use of RAF Fairford halves the time US bombers need to spend in the air. Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to allow US troops to use the base prevented what would have been a 37-hour round trip from Missouri to Iran.

RAF Fairford remains among the few European bases capable of supporting long-range US bombers such as the B-52 and B-2, and thus is an important staging and logistics hub for the Pentagon.

Major fire reported at RAF Fairford overnight, a British airbase hosting a sizeable forward-deployed contingent of USAF bombers for Iran strikes.

The fire reportedly gutted a commissary building. pic.twitter.com/cveufpjC1t

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 26, 2026

Tensions have of late been strained between the US and UK over the Iran war, with PM Starmer dealing with a lot of domestic opposition, and Trump at the same time pressuring him to do more alongside the US in Iran and the Hormuz Strait.

If the fire was indeed arson, European authorities will likely look at the potential that it could have been Russia-linked, given widespread allegations of Moscow-backed sabotage operations in Europe and the UK, throughout the Ukraine war.

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s European nations would need to bolster standing militaries by at least 300,000 troops and significantly boost defense spending beyond 3.5 percent of gross domestic product – at least 250 billion euros – while reviving and integrating their industrial base to defend themselves against Russia without the United States.

And they’d need to do that fast, according to a 2025 joint analysis by European think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for World Economy.

They warn that even with 80,000 American soldiers and airmen stationed on 30 bases on the continent—and the United States’ capacity to rapidly deploy forces—Moscow will test NATO’s resolve “within three to 10 years.”

The once-inconceivable prospect of the United States withdrawing from NATO is now a possibility. President Donald Trump—never a fan of the 32-nation coalition the Pentagon has spearheaded since 1949—has called for a “very serious examining” of the alliance, after its members failed to respond to his appeal to assist in the Iran war or join the U.S. Navy’s Arabian Sea blockade of Iranian shipping. 

Trump has vowed Europeans could face a “reckoning” without American leadership and support. Such a departure would require unlikely congressional approval, but the president’s statements are sparking discussion on both sides of the Atlantic about a restructuring of the alliance that would require Europeans to shoulder more of NATO’s burden.

As widely reported, European allies are actively discussing and preparing for a “NATO minus U.S.” scenario. The idea originated in response to Trump’s demand for Europeans to bulk up support for Ukraine in fighting off Russia’s invasion, his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark, and his characterization of member states as “cowards” unlikely to uphold NATO’s commitments.

While Americans have questioned NATO’s post-Cold War resolve since former President Barack Obama’s administration, Europeans in turn have questioned Trump’s reliability in meeting treaty obligations. 

In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during the alliance’s 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries—roughly matching the percent of GDP the U.S. spends on its armed forces—and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements, such as cybersecurity, crisis response, and adapting roads, rail lines, bridges, and ports to military needs.

Muscle and Money

The Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis documents Europe’s armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million troops. In order to withstand a hypothetical Russian invasion, a European-only force would need 300,000 more infantry soldiers, or roughly 50 more brigades, than it had in 2025. It would need a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces with more than 1 million 155 mm shells—the minimum for three months of combat, the Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis states. 

That boost in manpower and armaments would exceed the current French, German, Italian, and British forces combined.

And that’s just ground forces.

To match Russian war-footing military production—even with Ukraine attrition—a Europe-only military would need collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units. Such an army would need to replace stationed U.S. forces and rotational deployments within the 65-mile Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, while also establishing bases in Moldova and Romania.

These are but a few of the challenges a “NATO minus the U.S.” would face, military analysts and international relations scholars told The Epoch Times. And as Europeans by necessity assumed a more robust posture on the continent, American forces would need to compensate for the loss of specialties and skills brought by their European allies.

“Non-U.S. NATO forces are well-trained and have some highly competent defense manufacturing industries,” said University of Miami professor of politics June Teufel Dreyer, a senior Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow and former U.S.–China Economic and Security Review commissioner. 

European giants such as Thales and Leonardo would “surely be attracted by the idea of more indigenous investment,” Dreyer said. But, she added, European defense contractors “also know the funds they need aren’t guaranteed” without orders from the U.S. military to, for instance, annually build 2,000 “long-range loitering munitions”—drones—to match Russia’s numbers.

“The French and the Germans build highly thought of diesel-electric submarines; Sweden produces great fighter planes,” Dreyer said.

But from a nuclear deterrent perspective, a U.S. departure from NATO is problematic. Dreyer pointed to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s June 2025 announcement that Britain would buy at least 12 U.S.-made F-35s to “enhance the interoperability of NATO defense” in its nuclear posture, since these jets would be the UK’s only nuclear deterrent beyond its submarine force. The stealth fighter is the first to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.

U.S. and European allies’ coordination in defense procurement and production “saves money and the R&D costs for the most advanced weapons,” she said, noting while the projected cost for the sixth-generation F-47 is $4.4 billion, but it is a shared NATO expense.

Specialties and Skills

If NATO ties are severed, the United States will no longer benefit from what retired Navy captain and Epoch Times contributor Carl Schuster calls “amazing capabilities that may prove essential in any conflict.” Those capabilities include aircraft and ship design, special ops, and regional know-how such as mountain operations capabilities and Arctic warfare expertise. 

However, many European military assets are aging, and it was only after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and Trump’s threats to pull the United States from the alliance—that leaders showed urgency to address the deficiencies, Schuster said.

He expressed doubts about Spain—which has refused to let the United States use bases on its mainland to attack Iran—and Turkey. 

“Spain has rejected any idea of its ground and air forces being committed to combat outside Spanish territory,“ he said. ”So their contribution to NATO defense is more statistical than real.”

Turkey has the alliance’s largest ground force, yet its “willingness to contribute to the defense of Greece, Bulgaria, and Eastern Europe” may be questionable, he said.

Middle East Forum Director Gregg Roman also questioned Turkey’s NATO commitment, in a September 2025 column in The Epoch Times, calling for “an urgent compartmentalization assessment” after Turkey made overtures to China and Iran during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. 

“Six months later,” he said in April, “that assessment is non-optional. You know, thinking about everything [NATO] is trying to put together—joint air missile defense planning—with an ally like Turkey that is functionally aligned with Iran and the [SCO] bloc that we’re opposing, they can’t be trusted.“

Read the rest here…