Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the Hill on the Maine decision and how it is illustrative of Justice Louis Brandeis’ warning of the danger of zealots. Shenna Bellows has long embraced extreme political and historical viewpoints, including denouncing the electoral college as a “relic of white supremacy.”  Challengers knew that they “had her at hello” in seeking to disqualify former president Donald Trump.

The coming week will likely show how the Supreme Court will address the issue.

Here is the column:

“You had me at hello.” That line from the movie “Jerry Maguire” came to mind this week after yet another Democratic secretary of state moved to prevent citizens from voting for former president Donald Trump.

Maine’s Shenna Bellows issued a “decision” that declared Trump an “insurrectionist” and ineligible to be president. She joined an ignoble list of Democratic officials in states such as Colorado who claim to safeguard democracy by denying its exercise to millions of Americans.

Yet the most striking aspect of this poorly crafted decision was not its litany of conclusory findings, but rather Bellow’s implausible suggestion that she struggled over the decision. Bellows was a natural choice for challengers, who have been searching for any officials or courts willing to embrace this dangerous theory under the Fourteenth Amendment that they can unilaterally bar candidates deemed rebellious or insurrectionist.

Challengers knew that they had Bellows at hello. She was one of the first officials to declare the Jan. 6 riot to be an “insurrection” prompted by Trump’s speech.

Bellows previously declared that “the Jan. 6 insurrection was an unlawful attempt to overthrow the results of a free and fair election…The insurrectionists failed, and democracy prevailed.” A year after the riot, Bellows was still denouncing the “violent insurrection.”

Of course, in the 1996 movie, Jerry Maguire reminded Dorothy that ” we live in a cynical world — a cynical, cynical world — and we work in a business of tough competitors.” However,  he added “you complete me.”

In our cynical politics, Bellows and Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, among others, have become wildly popular for seeking to complete the effort to defeat Trump by removing him from the ballot.

This cynicism is captured in statements from pundits who warn that Democrats can no longer rely on the election process, given Trump’s soaring popularity.

One columnist wrote that “Democrats may have to act radically to deny Donald Trump the 2024 Republican nomination. We cannot rely on Republicans to do it…Trump must be defeated. No matter what it takes.”

Many Democratic jurists and officials have refused to participate in this cynical effort to win the election through the courts. Maine’s Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden denounced Bellows decision. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) warned Democrats against embracing this legal theory. His state’s secretary of state Shirley Weber (D) had refused to do what Bellows just did.

Yet Democrats know that they need only to remove Trump from the ballots of a couple of key states to make him constitutionally incapable of becoming president, due to the electoral college. Thus, Trump could be the overwhelming choice of the voters but still be effectively barred from assuming office.

To achieve this end, advocates are willing to adopt the type of ballot-cleansing powers long associated with authoritarian countries such as Iran. That is why this theory of disqualification remains one of the most dangerous to arise in our nation’s history.

The U.S. stands as the most successful and stable democratic system in history. In the blind quest to block Trump “at any cost,” these officials have introduced a destabilizing element to our system that could be replicated in tit-for-tat politics for years to come. It has already begun, with Republicans calling to bar President Joe Biden from ballots.

The ballot-cleansing effort is only the latest example of what Justice Louis Brandeis identified as the true threat to our democracy — not the threat from other countries, but from within.

“The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well meaning but without understanding,” he said.

Some of these advocates exhibit precisely that zealotry of someone who seems to understand little beyond the next election, as opposed to the next generation.

The Supreme Court should act not only with finality but with unanimity in rejecting this pernicious disqualification theory. But these same advocates are likely to seek to delay or avoid such review. Even on the Colorado Supreme Court composed entirely of Democratically appointed justices, advocates could only eke out a 4-3 ruling, with a vehement dissent rejecting this theory.

There is a real chance that one or more of the liberal justices will show the same fealty to the constitution in rejecting the theory. That would undermine the claims of figures like Joe Scarborough that arguments against barring Trump are “laughable” and should be “mocked.” While the MSNBC host demanded that his interlocutors “spare me the anti-democratic lectures,” advocates are likely worried about getting precisely such a lecture, and a scathing one, from the Supreme Court.

Accordingly, if the court does not rule on the Colorado decision, Colorado may seek to moot the appeal, since the ballot would remain unchanged with Trump’s name on it.

Some justices may prefer this cup to pass from their lips. The divisive opinion in Bush v. Gore from 2000 still reverberates to this day.

For an intense institutionalist like Chief Justice John Roberts, there is a tendency to take exit ramps to avoid rulings if these conflicts can be resolved in the lower courts.

However, the court now faces a call of history. After the Maine decision, the justices must realize that neither they nor the country can avoid this moment. Indeed, the court was designed for this moment: to stand between rage and reason; between cynicism and constitutionalism.

Proponents knew exactly whom to call upon for the right answer. Yet, to their credit, other Democrats, from California to Maine, did not say “hello” but “hell no” to this proposal. It is time for the Supreme Court to do the same.

Authored by Mark Gilman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) predicts the agency’s case backlog will peak at 400,000 in 2024. So, a report from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which said VA resources have been used to process claims for medical care of illegal immigrants since 2020, is causing backlash from several legislators and veterans’ agencies.

The DHS report gives a detailed view of how U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations are working with the VA to contract with the Department of Veterans Affairs Financial Services Center to process medical claims reimbursements for immigrants who have not qualified for veterans benefits.

In fiscal year 2022 alone, the VA processed health care claims for illegal immigrants totaling more than $63.6 million in medical services, the ICE report stated. That number is expected to rise by the end of fiscal year 2023, the report explains, because providers have one year after the date of service to submit claims.

“As a Marine, I believe any dollar taken away from a veteran is a promise broken to those who served,” said Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), who has introduced legislation to block VA funds from being used to aid illegal immigrants. “Joe Biden’s failed border policies have created a humanitarian and national security crisis. Now it appears he’s taking resources away from our veterans to facilitate healthcare for illegal migrants,” he said in a statement.

In an October report, the VA reported hundreds of thousands of backlogged cases. A backlogged case is categorized as one that has been pending for more than 125 days, an increase of more than a third expected in 2024.

In its end-of-year 2023 benefits claims update, the VA pointed to the PACT Act as inspiring veterans this year to apply for benefits at a record rate, over 39 percent more than the previous record of applications. The Act, passed in 2022, expanded care and benefits for veterans exposed to toxic substances for those eligible.

In the update, the VA said it’s been able to deliver “more earned benefits to more Veterans than ever before, including $150 billion in benefits during 2023 alone.” The agency also said, “There has also been an anticipated increase in the number of claims applications that take longer than 125 days to process,” which currently stands at 378,000.

The VA added that “we have been taking aggressive steps to address this increase and to ensure timely processing of your claims.”

That statement, however, did not calm those organizations and individuals who see illegal immigrants getting VA funds as counterproductive to solving the backlog.

Earlier this month, veteran advocacy group Concerned Veterans for America (CVA) accused the VA in a written statement of “managing community care and reimbursements for unauthorized migrants while actively keeping veterans from accessing timely, quality care.”

“This means the VA is spending a significant portion of time and manpower managing care for noncitizens who didn’t earn it,” it said. “The problem is less about who is getting the care and more about who is not.”

The group’s executive director, Russ Duerstine, said the VA is failing in its stated mission.

“The VA was created to serve the veteran, the brave men and women who served and sacrificed for our freedoms. Right now, under the Biden administration, the VA is failing our nation’s heroes,” he said. “The VA has paved the way for unauthorized migrants and non-citizens to easily use community care intended for veterans. This betrays the veterans who earned care through their blood, sweat, and tears.”

The CVA did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for an interview.

In an interview with Fox News, VA spokesperson Terrence Hayes said the VA doesn’t provide any health care services to individuals whom ICE detains, with all health care expenses paid for and provided by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Health Service Corps.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Substack,

Are the crowds ready for the curtain of Fed omnipotence to be pulled aside? What will push markets ever higher if the Fed’s alchemy fails?

For 15 long years, the Federal Reserve has conjured an economy and financial system without crisis or lengthy recession (setting aside that spot of bother triggered by the pandemic shutdown as a “bolt from the blue”), all with god-like mastery of the financial dials of bond yields, interest rates, vast purchases of mortgages, the subsidizing of the banking sector and the enlivening floods of liquidity that have elevated markets to extraordinary heights.

It is thus understandable that Fed Chair Powell declared victory in December 2023, having engineered the tricky maneuver known as “the soft landing” without crushing employment, spending, credit or markets.

We can easily imagine a triumphant parade of the Fed’s leaders, each lauded as demi-gods of the financial realm. We can also sense the palpable confidence of the crowd, so greatly enriched by the Fed’s mastery, that the Fed’s mastery will continue unabated for another 15 years–in other words, essentially forever.

That was 2023. In 2024, things might turn out differently than the crowd expects, not because of the oft-dreaded Fed policy error but for reasons beyond the reach of financial machinations.

I speak of Hubris and Nemesis, not wonky policy errors. In the glory years of the Roman Empire, triumphant parades celebrating victorious generals were said to feature a charioteer who followed the general, whispering (or perhaps shouting over the cacophony of the crowds) Respice post te! Hominem te memento!: “Look behind you! Remember you are only a man!”

In other tellings, it is a slave who is ordered to shadow the victorious leader, whispering Memento Mori, “Remember, thou art mortal.”

The point of the story is that hubris–excessive pride and confidence in one’s power and victories, excesses that breed complacency–offends the gods, especially the goddess Nemesis, the “dispenser of dues,” who relishes delivering retribution on the prideful for their undeserved good fortune.

In other words, 15 years of victories and glory has undoubtedly attracted the scornful attention of Nemesis. How Nemesis might exact her dues is of course unknown, but we can anticipate that the sources of excessive pride and confidence in one’s power will fail the Fed in unexpected ways: perhaps the Fed will fiddle with the dials in the same fashion that yielded one victory after another, only this time the results will be chaos rather than calm and defeat rather than victory.

The entire field of economics is ripe for a rebalancing visit from Nemesis to dissipate the illusion of god-like powers bestowed by financial alchemy. We have been lulled by the declarations of victory into believing that all that’s needed for permanent prosperity is the right mix of top-down financial policies: a subsidy here, a tax break there, all floated by a tsunami of Fed liquidity–the unequaled magic holding the entire financial Empire together.

Are the crowds ready for the curtain of Fed omnipotence to be pulled aside? What will push markets ever higher if the Fed’s alchemy fails? All that gold created out of base metals by the Fed might be revealed as nothing more than a paper-thin coating of gold over bars of lead.

In our hubris, we reckon the alchemy of finance gives us god-like powers. That’s the ideal setup for a takedown by Nemesis.

Edison, New Jersey’s Democrat Mayor Sam Joshi (D) says he turned a bus full of illegal migrants around because there was no way for local police to know “if any of those 40 individuals were carrying weapons,” adding that “they couldn’t be identified.”

According to Joshi, this poses “a major security risk. It’s a health risk. And we’re just not going to tolerate that.”

Joshi instead plans to send migrants back to the border as opposed to burdening other mayors, Breitbart reports.

WABC New Jersey Reporter Toni Yates stated, “The town of Edison, however, has its own answer: A charter bus to send migrants back to the southern border. The bus that arrived the other night was simply ordered to leave.”

She then played a clip of Joshi saying, “Edison Township Police officers did not know if any of those 40 individuals were carrying weapons, they couldn’t be identified. And that is a major problem. That’s a major security risk. It’s a health risk. And we’re just not going to tolerate that.”

Meanwhile, the Daily Caller reported on Tuesday that the Biden administration ‘drastically simplified the vetting process for Chinese illegal immigrants‘ in April of 2023, according to a US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) email leaked to the outlet.

The April 2023 email, which was sent by a CBP supervisor to a “master list” of about 500 Border Patrol agents, instructs CBP officials to radically reduce the number of interview questions for Chinese migrants apprehended after illegally crossing into the country from roughly 40 to just five. The “headquarters guidance” came as border agents were overwhelmed with near-record numbers of illegal crossings.

“This policy change has accelerated the time it takes to process Chinese illegal immigrants — this doesn’t make America safer,” said J.J. Carrell, a retired CBP deputy patrol agent in charge, in a statement to the Caller. “The final result is that dangerous Chinese illegal immigrants will still be released into the U.S.”

“This is just the government covering their ass, so they can say they vetted,” Carrell continued. “I believe the government recognizes the threat of Chinese soldiers and spies that are pouring into America, and they want to try and identify these individuals. However, the same government does not want to stop the flow of illegal aliens or Chinese nationals — just the ‘bad ones,’ which is impossible.”

According to the new guidance, the number of questions that agents are required to ask have been scaled back, thus ‘speeding up the flow’ of Chinese illegal immigrants into the country, Carrell said, adding that human trafficking operations quickly adapted to the new guidelines, coaching Chinese illegals on how to answer the new, shorter list of CBP questions.

Read the rest of the report here…

So for 5 years the MSM insisted that Trump was a Russian puppet thanks to lies fabricated by Democrat / establishment operatives, yet the Bidens take millions from Chinese entities, and nobody bats an eye when the administration helps funnel unvetted Chinese migrants – an actual national security risk – into the country.

Authored by Venus Upadhayaya via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

With Taiwan’s elections just two weeks away, concerns about Chinese interference in the elections have become more prominent.

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) fourth-ranking leader, and its lead in charge of Taiwan affairs, Wang Huning, convened a meeting of various departments in late November to discuss CCP influence operations in Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official shared news of the meeting with a group of selected media earlier this month, according to CNN.

A scholar from Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security Research told The Epoch Times in an exclusive interview that the CCP’s agenda for manipulating the January elections has turned Taiwan into the “most dangerous place in cyberspace.”

“With fast developments in AI tools, new types of malicious software, [and the] criminal chain of Ransomware as a Service [RaaS], Taiwan is suffering from more diverse cyber attacks,” according to Wu Tsunghan, an assistant research fellow with the institute.

Mr. Wu shared his viewpoints in a conference jointly organized by New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University and the Taiwanese mission on Dec. 9. He reminded the gathering that Taiwanese businesses were attacked 3,245 times every week on average in the first half of 2023.

Overall, 15,000 cyber threats were detected every second during the same period, making Taiwan the most attacked location in Asia-Pacific cyberspace, according to Fortinet, a U.S. cybersecurity firm.

Meanwhile, the Taiwanese security expert told reporters that Mr. Wang, who became head of Taiwanese affairs earlier in 2023, has instructed officials to “step up their effectiveness” in influencing Taiwan’s public opinion, ahead of the Jan. 13 elections.

A longtime advisor to CCP head Xi Jinping, who personally chairs China’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Mr. Wang also acts as the deputy head of the group. He directed his staff to reduce any likelihood of external parties uncovering evidence of CCP interference in Taiwan, according to reports.

Disinformation Campaign

Mr. Wu said that Chinese meddling in Taiwanese elections most importantly includes “making confusion” by stirring up society. As an example, he cited a cyber incident in which a Dec. 6 social media post accused the Taiwanese government of monitoring the Taiwanese public.

“Is it true or not? How to verify? Who can verify? Can the verification be trusted?” said Mr. Wu during the conference.

He noted that the Chinese regime tries to use information to influence people’s minds and behavior.

“If true, it refers to [a] data leak [from] government agencies. If not true—Why at this time? Who’s operating it?” he said, adding that the purpose can be to undermine public trust in the government.

He gave the example of another disinformation campaign that accused the Taiwanese government of wanting to import Japanese nuclear waste to Taiwan.

Disinformation is spread through the Chinese-speaking world by social media platforms popular in Taiwan such as Facebook, which shared images and false information from Chinese platforms like Weibo or Douyin, according to a report by the Taiwan FactCheck Center (TFC).

“Nonetheless, while Chinese narratives attempted to feed increasing anti-Japan sentiment in China, Taiwanese ones exploited Taiwanese citizens’ long-standing concern about food safety and criticized the government led by the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) for being soft on Japan,” said the Sept. 18 report authored by Wei-Ping Li.

An erroneous narrative circulating in Taiwan concerned Yasuhiro Sonoda, a Japanese politician who was said to have died from multiple myeloma in 2020 because he drank treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

“This rumor has persisted in social media like Weibo, Douyin, Facebook, and LINE, for years and has lately become prevalent again. It wasn’t until this September that Kyodo News was able to contact Mr. Sonoda confirmed he was still alive,” said the TFC report.

Something similar happened during the visit of Taiwanese vice-president, Lai Ching-te, to Paraguay in August to attend the inauguration of Paraguayan President Santiago Peña Palacios.

Paraguay is part of a dwindling group of governments—currently only 12—that continue to have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Mr. Peña had visited Taiwan in July and had promised President Tsai Ing-wen that his country would “stand with the people of Taiwan” during his five-year term.

Mr. Wu said a fake news report began circulating claiming that Taiwan was going to provide funding to build free housing for Paraguay.

“Sometimes providing funding to other countries … some people might [wonder why] Taiwan is providing funding to other countries when we are facing such challenges as high house prices and [when] the salary is not good,” he said, adding that this bit of misinformation directly targeted the reputation of the Taiwanese government, as well as its relationship with Paraguay.

According to Mr. Wu, such “disinformation campaigns” accelerate during times like the visit of top Taiwanese leaders to the United States and vice-versa, and during national elections.

“It really depends upon the context, purpose, and what kind of goal the attackers want to achieve,” he said. It’s difficult to find the source of disinformation campaigns like this, and by the time it is uncovered, it has already made an impact on the public and cast doubt on Taiwan’s democratic system of government.

Chinese meddling in Taiwanese elections also came up during Xi’s visit to San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November. After his meetings with the Chinese leader, President Joe Biden told reporters on Nov. 16 that he had discussed the matter with the Chinese leader.

“I made it clear: I didn’t expect any interference, any at all. And we had that discussion as—as he was leaving,” Mr. Biden said.

The SSF and Base 311

China’s cyberwar operations against Taiwan, which are currently at their peak, are managed by the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (SSF), and Base 311, a unit based in Fujian that focuses on Taiwan, Mr. Wu said.

According to Mr. Wu, Base 311 has its own media company. Dedicated to the implementation of the “Three Warfares” strategy—public opinion or media warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare—it creates an ecosystem that feeds media in Taiwan. Base 311 has at least six regiments overseeing the three types of warfare, as well as multiple forms of propaganda.

The latter is fed by China Huayi Broadcasting Corporation (CHBC), which the Global Taiwan Institute defines as Base 311’s commercial front.

“Its coverage of Taiwan is routinely negative, often highlighting political contention and social issues,” according to a 2017 report by the Washington-based non-profit.

Mr. Wu said China’s propaganda operations against Taiwan are encompassed by its “cyber approach” which he described as one of the means of “PLA invasion.”

“Cognitive warfare and disinformation integrates cyber, information, psychological, and social engineering attacks, and can operate in synchronization with other physical means aiming to affect attitudes and behavior of the targeted individual or group to gain advantage,” said Mr. Wu, adding that this cyber approach has been the crux of China’s pre-election influence operations.

With the imminent release of roughly 10,000 pages of documents (originally scheduled for Jan. 1, 2024) – expected to be a list of 156 John Does who were sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s friends, recruiters, and victims – former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has raised questions about the official account of the 2019 death of Epstein in federal custody.

Jeffrey Epstein died in federal prison while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, with the official cause of death determined as suicide by a New York City medical examiner.

In an apparent preview of a forthcoming interview with Jeffrey Epstein’s brother Mark, Carlson shared a video on social media revealing the struggles to obtain basic documents related to the incident.

Mr. Carlson expressed skepticism about the official cause of death being ruled suicide, writing:

The U.S. government claims Jeffrey Epstein killed himself in a federal detention facility in Manhattan four and a half years ago, just before his trial.

If that’s true, why are there so few records available from that night?

Here’s Mark Epstein trying to get a copy of one of the most basic documents of all, the pre-hospital care report, written by the EMS team that moved his brother’s body out of the cell.

The U.S. government claims Jeffrey Epstein killed himself in a federal detention facility in Manhattan four and a half years ago, just before his trial. If that’s true, why are there so few records available from that night? Here’s Mark Epstein trying to get a copy of one of the… pic.twitter.com/yI2RLmOUQf

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) January 1, 2024

Caden Pearson reports that in the video, Mark Epstein is heard asking the employee, “But as of right now, you’re telling me you can’t find the PCR report?”

The employee responds, “Not for the 10th of August 2019… It’s not in the fire department database,” the employee continues. “I don’t know why.”

“If it’s supposed to be there, we’ll find out. But first, you’ve got to give the letters of administration before you can take them anywhere,” he added.

Mark Epstein insists that Jeffrey was in the hospital after being found, stating that he has photographs to support his claim.

After showing the employee some paperwork and noting the date the late sex offender died, the employee suggests, “Well, then they might have taken them directly to the morgue.”

“No, he was in the hospital,” Mark Epstein insists.

“I have photographs of him in the hospital too.”

Photographs from after Jeffrey Epstein’s death show a piece of cloth tied to the cell’s bunkbed and the interior of the cell. Epstein lacked a cellmate despite being supposed to have one and had an excessive amount of cloth, investigators found. (Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, City of New York via The Epoch Times)

The government employee tells Mark Epstein that Jeffrey’s pre-hospital care report cannot be located in the computerized fire department database, even though, Mark Epstein claims, the fire department suggested he seek the report in the first place.

“Yeah, well, I don’t know what happened, but so far, he’s not in the fire department database. I don’t know why,” the employee says.

Mark Epstein insists that he spoke to a fire department personnel who “suggested I get the PCR report.”

The employee responds, “Well, they’re saying one thing, but the computer is saying something else.”

“Yeah, well, since I heard that with my own ears, I believe them, and I don’t know why someone played with the computer, and it’s not there,” Jeffrey Epstein’s brother says.

Finally, Carlson concluded the post on X by saying: “We’ll be interviewing Mark Epstein soon.”

Which will be particularly timely given that the identities of 156 people, including several prominent names, such as Britain’s Prince Andrew and former President Bill Clinton, are expected to appear in the previously redacted documents this week.

Update (1215ET): Hamas has now officially confirmed the death of high-ranking political official Saleh al-Arouri. There was previous confirmation through various sources, including in Israeli media, yet the IDF has yet to take responsibility for the attack:

Hamas’s deputy leader abroad Saleh al-Arouri was killed in an Israeli strike in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, the Hezbollah-linked al-Mayadeen reports.

…Based in Lebanon, al-Arouri, 57, was deputy head of the terror group’s political bureau and considered the de facto leader of Hamas’s military wing in the West Bank.

Israeli intelligence officials believe that al-Arouri also helped plan the June 2014 kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teens — Gil-ad Shaar, Eyal Yifrach and Naftali Fraenkel — as well as numerous other attacks.

He had served several terms in Israeli jails, and was released in March 2010 as part of efforts to reach a larger prisoner swap for Gilad Shalit, an IDF corporal kidnapped by Hamas in 2006

As both the founding commander of Hamas military wing, the Qassam Brigades, and as Deputy Chairman of the Political Bureau of Hamas, Arouri is among the highest ranking Hamas figures to have ever been assassinated by Israel. Hamas has also said two other members of the Qassam Brigades were killed in the attack.

Why it matters: Arouri is the most senior Hamas leader that was killed since the October 7 attack. The assassination which took place in the heart of Beirut very close to Hezbollah’s headquarters could push the Lebanese militia to escalate its attacks against Israel https://t.co/Lxb5enkt7U

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) January 2, 2024

An Al-Mayadeen correspondent in the southern suburbs of Beirut has said that six people in total were killed as a result of three missiles that struck the building from a low-flying Israeli drone.

This escalatory event has sparked new fears that Iran is about to get more deeply involved, as its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah has already escalated attacks on northern Israel, and is expected to further.

* * *

There are breaking reports via Lebanese state media and AFP saying that Israel has conducted a strike against a Hamas office in a Beirut suburb. 

Lebanese security sources have said a senior Palestinian official was killed in an explosion in Beirut’s southern suburbs, which is also considered a Hezbollah stronghold. However, there is little that is verified at this point. According to breaking news wires:

DEPUTY HEAD OF HAMAS POLITBURO KILLED IN BEIRUT: MAYADEEN TV

Unconfirmed reports that a drone hit a car in Dahiyeh, the southern suburb of Beirut. #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/L0Y5Zck71n

— Sharmine Narwani (@snarwani) January 2, 2024

Washington Post Beirut correspondent Sarah Dadouch has confirmed there was a large explosion in Beirut’s Dahieh neighborhood, writing that “a Hezbollah spokesman told me a Palestinian official headquarters was targeted in Dahieh.”

At statement in Lebanese state media further says it was an Israeli drone that targeted the Hamas office in Dahieh. Lebanese News Agency is reporting 4 dead and several wounded in the attack, as emergency personnel continue responding to the scene.

In prior major flare-ups in fighting between Palestinians and Israel, Israel’s military has conducted such targeted operations on offices in Beirut, but this certainly will be seen as a major escalation by Hezbollah, which offers these Palestinian groups protection.

Seeing more indications from a few reliable sources on social media that the explosion tonight in Dahiyeh, a #Hezbollah stronghold, may have been targeting a Palestinian HVT. Lots of #Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad commanders frequent Beirut. pic.twitter.com/U2xNnYo8m7

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) January 2, 2024

developing…

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Income is rising and so are wages. Even real income is up. But real wages are another matter…

Personal income data from the BEA, hourly wages from the BLS, real hourly earnings and chart by Mish.

Personal Income vs Hourly Wages Notes

• DPI means Disposable Personal Income. Disposable means after taxes.

• Real DPI means inflation adjusted using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator. Real DPI is a BEA calculation.

• Average hourly earning are for production and nonsupervisory workers.

• Real wages are deflated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) not the PCE.

• The BLS does not report a real hourly wage. I used the CPI-W index for production and nonsupervisory workers, produced by the BLS, as the deflator.

Personal Income Definition

The BEA defines personal income as “Income that people get from wages and salaries, Social Security and other government benefits, dividends and interest, business ownership, and other sources.” Rental income is a part of other sources.

Three Rounds of Fiscal Stimulus

• Round 1, March 2020: $1,200 per income tax filer, $500 per child(CARES Act) – Trump

• Round 2, December 2020: $600 per income tax filer, $600 per child (Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021) – Trump

• Round 3, March 2021: $1,400 per income tax filer, $1,400 per child (American Rescue Plan Act) – Biden

The three rounds of free money fiscal stimulus (literally a helicopter drop), plus eviction moratoriums put an unprecedented amount of money in people’s hands. In addition, unemployment insurance paid people more to not work than they received working.

The third round of stimulus under Biden was totally unwarranted. However, it is also worth noting that Trump wanted a much bigger second stimulus package than the Republican Congress gave him. Trump is no fiscal hero.

The three stimulus packages, on top of supply chain disruptions, energy disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and Bidenomics in general, set in motion the biggest wave of inflation in over 30 years.

Income and Wage Change

• DPI rose from 116.4 pre-pandemic to 143.5 in November of 2023. That’s an increase of 27.1 percent.

• Real DPI rose from 110.7 pre-pandemic to 117.7 in November of 2023. That’s an increase of 27.1 percent. That’s an increase of 6.3 percent. But much of that income increase is in the form of interest income, dividends, and rent. The average joe does not have much interest income or dividends. The average Joe does not collect rent. The average Joe pays rent.

• Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers rose from 110.2 to 134.3. That’s an increase of 21.9 percent. But as the next line show, that big boost in wages did not buy much.

• Real average hourly earnings rose from 101.7 to 103.5. That’s an increase of 1.8 percent. But all of it came early. Hourly earnings rose in the recession because the lowest paid workers were the first to lose their jobs.

The index of real hourly wages peaked at 106.1 in the recession, declined a bit, then hit 106.1 again in December of 2021.

In the last two years (minus a month), real hourly earnings are down by 2.5 percent.

Rent Jumps Another 0.5 Percent

CPI month-over-month data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.5 percent in November.

Rent, which is sticky, rose at least 0.4 percent for the 28th consecutive month.

For discussion, please see Rent Jumps Another 0.5 Percent, Only a Decline in Gasoline Prevents a Hot CPI

The average Joe does not collect rental income. The average Joe pays rent, up at least 0.4 percent for 28 months.

Although wages are up 21.9 percent in nominal terms, real wages are down 2.5 percent in the last two years.

Free money to Israel and Ukraine does not help. And neither does the border.

One week ago we explained why the “most consensus trade” of 2024 – namely long Treasurys in expectation of lower yields – will blow up in the market’s face. Now, it’s the turn of Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist, Ven Ram, to do the same.

The trouble with Treasuries after their humongous rally of the past two months is that they have priced in all the good news. That is especially so at the front end of the curve, which sets them up for a reality check as traders return to their desks this week to confront ISM manufacturing data to Fed minutes to non-farm payrolls.

Two-year Treasury yields slumped almost 45 basis points just last month, making it their best December in more than two decades. Looking at the more than 80-basis point decline in yields over the past two months, one is reminded of the steep decline in the first quarter of 2020. Back then, yields were sliding so imperiously in response to the pandemic that the Fed slashed its benchmark rate by a phenomenal 150 basis points in just one month — March — that year.

Except that the US economy now is in a far different shape, and in zero need of any rescue hand from the central bank. If anything, the inordinate loosening of financial conditions since the release of the December dot plot has perhaps had the effect of a de facto rate cut or two.

If the street’s forecasts of what is to come this week are right, we will see an improvement in the ISM manufacturing numbers for December, continued expansion in the ADP as well as non-farm payrolls data and a jobless rate still well below 4%. None of them spells like an imminent rate cut to me, which makes it more likely that the next 25-basis point move in front-end Treasuries will be higher rather than lower.

The Fed’s minutes will be keenly parsed for one cue more than any other: about when its members thought a rate cut could start. After all, Chair Jerome Powell commented at last month’s review that the policy committee discussed the timing of policy easing. Consistent with the pushback from several Fed officials afterward, I am inclined to think that March wasn’t what they were thinking — another factor that is likely to set up two-year notes for a correction.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Methodist Church in the UK has issued an ‘inclusive language’ guide, advising followers to refrain from using terms such as ‘husband’, ‘wife’, ‘brother’, and ‘sister’, reasoning that some people might find them “hurtful”.

The Christian Post reports  that the guide lists extensive categories of people with whom Methodists are advised to use “sensitive and inclusive” language when addressing minorities that have been “marginalised and/or demonised by common culture.”

The guide notes that “As Christians, we need to have the courage for conversations that can sometimes be difficult, to recognise that we sometimes exclude people, to listen with humility, to repent of any hurtful language and to take care with how we listen and what we say or write, in the Spirit of Christ.”

It continues, “There is infinite variety in the way that God’s creation is expressed in human life. This is worth bearing in mind as we speak and write. Terminology such as ‘husband’ and ‘wife’ may sound inoffensive but it makes assumptions about a family or personal life that is not the reality for many people.”

It adds that “The words ‘parent,’ ‘partner’, and ‘child’ are a good place to start. ‘Carer’ is also a neutral yet understandable way to refer to the primary carer of a child, who may or may not be their parent.”

Not ‘mother’ or ‘father’ then.

The Methodist newspeak guide also clarifies that “Language such as ‘brothers and sisters,’ while intended to be inclusive and friendly, doesn’t take into account our non-binary friends.”

It further states that “using a person’s chosen pronouns is helpful as it honours their identity.”

The guide also encourages congregations to “share your own pronouns in conversation,” before directing them to radical leftist LGBTQ+ activist groups, including Stonewall and GLAAD, as well as TikTok trans-activist Jeffrey Marsh, who was recently accused of sexually grooming children.

Jeffrey Marsh promotes his Patreon to minors on TikTok, where he coaches them behind a paywall on how to remove their parents from their lives. This is the definition of grooming.

Marsh hates his family and won’t feel fulfilled until more confused and pic.twitter.com/IeCBk6LDn9…

— Gays Against Groomers (@againstgrmrs) March 3, 2023

British Old Catholic cleric and conservative commentator Father Calvin Robinson slammed the Methodist Church over the guidance, noting “This is not Christianity. It is Critical Theories: ‘smash heteronormativity.’ It is no longer enough to acknowledge disordered lifestyles. Everything normative and ordered must be demolished for fear of causing offense.”

“Critical Theories is neo-Marxism,” he continued, adding “It is a communist ideology, antithetical to the Christian faith. It is not possible to be a communist *and* a Christian. One must make a choice. Embrace the ways of this trendy yet toxic ideology, or embrace God’s order.”

Critical Theories is neo-Marxism. It is a communist ideology, antithetical to the Christian faith.

It is not possible to be a communist *and* a Christian. One must make a choice. Embrace the ways of this trendy yet toxic ideology, or embrace God’s order.@MethodistGB pick one☝️

— Fr Calvin Robinson (@calvinrobinson) December 28, 2023

The devil uses Liberalism to pry open the hatches to squeeze Marxism in, which is a direct attack on God’s order.

Continued on my Substack:https://t.co/584R5Fj0Ld

— Fr Calvin Robinson (@calvinrobinson) December 28, 2023

While the Methodist Church is of Protestant denomination, the Catholic Church of England has also become so infested with wokery to the point that it has considered dropping the phrase “our Father” from the start of the Lord’s Prayer, and instructing clergy to refrain from using male pronouns when talking about God.

Some churches have gone as far as erasing references to the nativity and Jesus in a Christmas carol and replacing them with a celebration of “queer” people.

In July last year, the Church of England refused to define what a woman was, saying they had no definition of it on their books, despite still ostensibly opposing same sex marriage.

Islam looking more and more appealing with each passing day. pic.twitter.com/pLG9eS82JQ

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) February 7, 2023

The Church has even appointed a transgender archdeacon, and those within who express disagreement with such moves are shunned and punished.

In 2021, the CofE also announced it was introducing quotas for black and ethnic clergy to pave the way for ‘anti-racism training’ in the Church, as well as ‘contextualising church statues that may cause offence.”

Telegraph: “The Church of England will introduce a quota for black and minority ethnic (BAME) clergy, roll out anti-racism training & contextualise church statues “that may cause pain or offence.”

BAME quota goal is 30%. Last census showed UK is 87.2% white.

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) March 20, 2021

Earlier this year the CofE also established a £100 million fund to “address past wrongs of slavery,” even as some church buildings are literally falling apart.

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