US stocks were set to extend Monday’s drop into a second day after hitting 20-month highs, as the recent rally looks increasingly stretched and traders scale back rate-cut bets while Chinese stocks tumbled to fresh five year lows after Moody’s downgraded China’s credit outlook to negative on soaring debt. As of 7:40am ET, S&P 500 futures slid 0.4%, trading at session lows, after the benchmark rose last week to its highest since March 2022 on bets the Fed would soon pivot to monetary easing; Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5%. Bond yields eased as did the USD; 10Y TSY yield dropped 2bps to 4.22%. Commodities were seeing a bid within Ags and Energy while metals underperformed on China weakness despite better than expected PMIs. Bitcoin held near a 19-month high, just below the $42,000 mark.Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS job openings and ISM Services (52.3 consensus vs. 51.8 prior).

In premarket trading, Take-Two Interactive shares declined after the company’s Rockstar Games unit released the first trailer for the highly-anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI video game. With the title planned for 2025, analysts were disappointed by the lack of an exact release date. Robinhood gained after the online brokerage said November crypto notional trading volumes were about 75% above October levels. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Albemarle and Livent fell after Piper Sandler cut its rating on both stocks to underweight from neutral. The broker said the downgrades reflect a significant deterioration of global lithium markets.
• Gitlab jumped 16% as after the application software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• JOANN shares slumped 18% after the fabric and crafts retailer reported third-quarter net sales that missed estimates and a wider-than-expected adjusted loss per share.
• Nio ADRs gained 3.1% after the Chinese EV maker reported profitability that beats estimates, including better-than-expected adjusted earnings and vehicle gross margin. Revenue outlook for current quarter is well below estimates.
• Take-Two Interactive shares declined 6.1% after the company’s Rockstar Games unit released the first trailer for the highly-anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI video game, which will be released in 2025. While analysts saw the trailer as positive, they note the game being released in 2025 and the lack of an exact release date as a source of disappointment.

As November’s epic 12% rally on hopes that global central bankers were ready to shift to easy policy fizzles, investors are starting to doubt if it will extend in December especially after Goldman’s flows guru Scott Rubner warned that the rally has “Absolutely Run Out Of Gas.” As such, what had become the prevailing wisdom last month — that a “Goldilocks” scenario can be fulfilled by US central bankers in early, rapid rate cuts in 2024 — is now grounds for debate. US jobs data later in the week is seen as a key piece of the puzzle to understanding the economy and the risk that wage growth fans inflation, leading to higher borrowing costs for longer.  A salvo of US job numbers are expected every day for the rest of week, including JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims, non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

“Even though US PMI and JOLTs data may increase market volatility in the afternoon, the “wait and see” stance will likely continue as investors brace for the crucial US jobs data due tomorrow and Friday,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. “Meanwhile, a particular focus should be maintained towards central bankers’ speeches, as traders need to check whether their dovish expectations will be confirmed.”

Meanwhile, market breadth on the S&P 500 now looks extremely extended with the benchmark now firmly overbought for more than two weeks, while Goldman pointing out that the proportion of index members in overbought territory reached 33%, the highest reading since June 2020.

“It’s remarkable how quickly we’ve swung from different market narratives this year,” Hugh Gimber, global market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management in London, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Now it feels like we’ve gone full circle again.”

European stocks were mixed and US equity futures are down after Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign debt outlook to negative. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.3%. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.5%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.4%, after LSE faced issues earlier. Real estate, utilities and construction are the strongest-performing sectors in Europe. German markets got a boost from comments from European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel that further interest rate hikes are unlikely. The DAX Index added 0.2%, closing in on a record high and outperforming the broader Stoxx 600. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Ericsson rises as much as 9.9%, among the top performers on the Stoxx 600, after winning a contract with AT&T that could amount to almost $14 billion over five years. Nokia, which lost out on the contract, fell as much as 10%
• SSP Group gains as much as 4.9% after the food services company boosted its 2024 revenue guidance. The guidance should be “reassuring” for the outlook of travel retail, RBC said
• Pirelli shares rise as much as 6%, the most intraday in a year, after UBS upgraded the Italian tiremaker to buy, citing earnings upside risk, deleveraging potential and an attractive valuation
• Alm Brand gains as much as 5.9% after the Danish financial services firm announced a DKK250 million share buyback program due to its “very strong solvency coverage”
• Moonpig shares advance as much as 3.5% after the onling gifting company reported first-half underlying Ebitda and adjusted earnings per share that beat estimates
• Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk decline as Barclays says the global shipping market faces “the dawn of a new annus horribilis” due to industry oversupply and muted demand
• Ashtead falls as much as 5.4% after the UK-based industrial and construction equipment rental firm reported 2Q earnings. While the results were solid, they may not reassure fully, RBC says
• Carl Zeiss Meditec drops as much as 4.9% after JPMorgan initiated coverage on the German medical optics firm with an underweight rating
• Auction Technology drops as much as 6.2% after Barclays downgraded its rating on the online auction technology provider to equal-weight, citing a more cautious view in the near term

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks tumbled and were on pace for their worst day since Nov. 20 as sharp selling in Chinese and Hong Kong shares hurt sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.1%, with Tencent, Samsung Electronics and AIA Group leading losses. Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks slumped in the wake of a move by Moody’s Investors Service to cut its outlook on the nation’s sovereign debt to negative. The MSCI China Index slid as much as 2.3% toward its lowest close since November 2022. On the mainland, the benchmark CSI 300 Index finished 1.9% lower as foreigners sold the largest amount of shares since mid-October.  Sentiment was also dragged by a selloff in technology stocks across the region, tracking similar losses for US tech giants Monday. The MSCI Asia Information Technology Index fell the most since October.

“The accumulation of news over last few weeks would be raising questions on China’s economy into 2024,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director for Asian equities at abrdn. “Macro data has been soft. The big concern over the property slump remains as sales volume are still very weak.”

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated which saw the latter breach the psychological 3,000 level to the downside amid lingering frictions after China criticised the US for seeing it as a threat following calls by Commerce Secretary Raimondo for more funds to back chip curbs, while encouraging Caixin Services PMI data which printed a 3-month high at 51.5 (exp. 50.7) only provided a brief tailwind.
• Nikkei 225 continued to weaken and slipped below the 33,000 level despite softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data.
• ASX 200 was led lower by the commodity-related industries with underperformance in gold miners after the precious metal faded the recent surge, while sentiment was also not helped by weak data and after the unsurprising RBA rate decision in which the central bank kept rates unchanged and reiterated its forward guidance.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index was steady. JPY and GBP were the strongest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and NZD underperformed.

• EUR/USD pared a loss of 0.3% to trade flat at 1.0839, after the ECB’s Schnabel said that the moderation in inflation has made another rate hike unlikely; euro-area bonds rallied
• AUD/USD sank as much as 0.8% to 0.6569, a one-week low, after the Reserve Bank left its policy rate unchanged and said inflation is continuing to slow
• USD/CNH and USD/CNY steadied following Moody’s cut to its Chinese debt outlook to negative

In rates, treasuries held small gains amid steeper rally in bunds after ECB’s Schnabel said she sees further rate hikes as unlikely, citing a “remarkable” fall in inflation, according to Reuters. US yields are richer by 1bp-2bp across the curve with spreads flatter but still within 1bp of Monday close; 10-year yields around 4.23% with bunds and gilts outperforming by 3bp in the sector as core European rates drive gains. German bonds rose, with the front end outperforming comparable USTs and gilts, and money markets up their ECB easing bets after ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said that further interest rate hikes are unlikely. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany. Dollar IG issuance slate includes JPMorgan 3Y and IADB 3Y; seven names priced almost $9b Monday and at least one stood down. Treasury coupon issuance is on hiatus until next week’s 3-, 10- and 30-year sales. US session includes ISM services index and JOLTS job openings data.

In commodities, oil steadied after three days of losses. Saudi Arabia said recent cuts by OPEC+ would be honored in full and could be extended. Most base metals trade in the red. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $2,027/oz.

Bitcoin held near a 19-month high, just below the $42,000 mark.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index for November, and the JOLTS job openings for October. Elsewhere, there’s the global services and composite PMIs for November and Euro Area PPI for October. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for October.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,566.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 466.33
• MXAP down 1.0% to 159.84
• MXAPJ down 1.1% to 497.42
• Nikkei down 1.4% to 32,775.82
• Topix down 0.8% to 2,342.69
• Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 16,327.86
• Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 2,972.30
• Sensex up 0.6% to 69,290.91
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 7,061.55
• Kospi down 0.8% to 2,494.28
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30%
• Euro little changed at $1.0840
• Brent Futures up 1.1% to $78.85/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,030.89
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.10% to 103.60

Top Overnight News

• Moody’s lowered China’s credit outlook to negative from stable while retaining a long-term rating of A1 on the nation’s sovereign bonds, according to a statement. China’s usage of fiscal stimulus to support local governments and its spiraling property downturn is posing risks to the nation’s economy, the grader said. BBG
• China’s Caixin services PMI for Nov comes in ahead of plan at 51.5, up from 50.4 in Oct and above the Street’s 50.5 expectation. RTRS
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI undershoots the Street in Nov, w/the core (ex-food/energy) number coming in at +3.6% (down from +3.8% in Oct and below the Street’s +3.7% forecast). BBG  
• South Korea’s CPI undershoots the Street in Nov, with the core number coming in at +3% (down from +3.2% and below the Street’s +3.1% forecast). BBG
• The ECB can take further interest rate hikes off the table given a “remarkable” fall in inflation and policymakers should not guide for rates to remain steady through mid-2024, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told Reuters. RTRS
• Qatar Holding, a subsidiary of the Qatar Investment Authority that helped bail out Barclays during the global financial crisis, launched the sale on Monday of almost 362mn shares of Barclays, worth about £510mn. The QIA is Barclays’ second-biggest shareholder, according to Bloomberg data, and the stock sale is expected to reduce its stake from 5.3% to 2.9%. FT
• The head of Airbus has said the group “might need some support” from European governments for a new, multibillion-dollar commercial aircraft program as it gears up for a successor to its best-selling A320 family of jets. FT
• Israeli forces closed in on the city of Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, engaging in close combat with Hamas fighters in what could be the decisive battle of the two-month-old war, while residents fled from the fighting amid a worsening humanitarian plight. WSJ
• CVS Health will overhaul how drugs are paid for, adopting a “cost plus” model whereby it will charge a simple markup and a flat fee on top of what it pays for pharmaceuticals. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined following the mostly negative lead from Wall St where the major indices were choppy and ultimately weighed amid a rebound in yields ahead of key data releases. ASX 200 was led lower by the commodity-related industries with underperformance in gold miners after the precious metal faded the recent surge, while sentiment was also not helped by weak data and after the unsurprising RBA rate decision in which the central bank kept rates unchanged and reiterated its forward guidance. Nikkei 225 continued to weaken and slipped below the 33,000 level despite softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated which saw the latter breach the psychological 3,000 level to the downside amid lingering frictions after China criticised the US for seeing it as a threat following calls by Commerce Secretary Raimondo for more funds to back chip curbs, while encouraging Caixin Services PMI data which printed a 3-month high at 51.5 (exp. 50.7) only provided a brief tailwind.

Top Asian News

• RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, while it reiterated its forward guidance that whether further tightening is required to ensure inflation returns to the target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon data and evolving assessment of risks. RBA also repeated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome, as well as noted there are still significant uncertainties around the outlook and that the limited information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting has been broadly in line with expectations.
• Moody’s affirms China’s A1 rating; changes outlook to Negative from Stable. Reflects risks relating to persistently lower medium-term economic growth and ongoing downsizing of the property sector.
• Chinese Finance Ministry says Chinese economy will maintain its rebound and positive trend; we expect the Q4 economy to keep the positive trend
• Foxconn (2317 TW) November Sales +17.95% Y/Y (October -4.56% Y/Y); outlook for Q4 should be better than the original guidance for “significant growth”; revenue performance in the first two months of Q4 has been slightly higher than expected

European equities, Eurostoxx50 +0.3%, are mixed, with the FTSE100, -0.2%, once again the relative underperformer, largely hampered by ongoing losses in Basic Resources which is the worst performing sector. European sectors are mixed with a slight positive tilt; Real Estate outperforms following broker upgrades at British Land, +1.3%, and Land Securities, +0.8%. US equity futures are trading on the backfoot, continuing the losses seen in the prior days’ session as the year’s final few key events/releases begin with JOLTS.

Top European News

• ECB’s Schnabel says current level of restriction is sufficient, has increased confidence that 2% target will be met in 2025; must not declare victory prematurely; further hikes “rather unlikely” after November inflation data. Must be more cautious with rate cuts than markets pricing; further hikes “rather unlikely” after November inflation data. Inflation developments are encouraging, fall in core prices is remarkable
• YouGov/Citi survey showed the British public’s expectation for inflation in 5yr-10yr’s time rose to 3.5% from a prior 3.3% view in September.
• German Ifo: Retailers Expect Little Help from Christmas Sales; Business Situation -8.8 (prev. -13.5).
• Kantar UK Supermarket update (Nov): grocery price inflation 9.71% in the four weeks to Nov 26th; UK grocery sales +6.3% Y/Y.
• ECB Survey of Consumer Expectations (October 2023): median consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead remained unchanged.
• The London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) is currently investigating an issue impacting its trading/information system. We are now resuming trading on impacted instruments. Instruments will go into auction at 09:55GMT with uncrossing beginning at 10:15GMT. All live orders remain on the system. LSE: Impacted securities are now in regular trading.

FX

• DXY extended on the upper end of its overnight range towards 103.84 ahead of the European equity cash open and now resides within the middle of today’s range of 103.84-53.
• EUR/USD is trading around flat having bounced off lows on revisions higher to Services & Composite PMI data.
• The Japanese Yen is the G10 outperformer at the time of writing amid a combination of a pullback in US yields coupled with the broader risk aversion overnight.
• AUD, NZD, CAD are all softer to varying degrees amid the initial broader risk tone, but the Aussie is the marked G10 laggard in the aftermath of the RBA policy decision which lacked hawkish undertones.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1127 vs exp. 7.1476 (prev. 7.1011).
• China’s major state-owned banks were seen acquiring dollars via onshore swaps and selling them in the spot FX market, while it was also reported that the RBI was likely selling dollars near the 83.38-83.39 rupee level, according to sources and traders cited by Reuters.

Fixed Income

• ECB’s Schnabel (Hawk) says that further hikes are now “rather unlikely” following the November inflation data.
• Commentary which drove Bunds to a 134.17 peak; though, upward revisions to PMIs have prompted a pullback, but one that is limited by the reports internal commentary.
• Similar action has been seen in Gilts which perhaps derived initial support from the latest YouGov findings as well.
• Finally, USTs are directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained at the mid-point of 110.10 to 110.18 parameters ahead of JOLTS & PMIs/ISM.
• UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.75% 2033 I/L Gilt: b/c 2.68x (prev. 2.94x) and real yield 0.724% (prev. 0.831%)
• Germany to sell EUR 3.66bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 3.10% 2025 Schatz: b/c 2.48x (prev. 1.7x), average yield 2.64% (prev. 3.06%), retention 18.67% (prev. 17.82%)

Commodities

• WTI and Brent, +0.7%, front-month futures are on firmer footings after choppy trade on Monday amid continued fallout from OPEC+ in the backdrop of cooling economic data and volatile Middle East tensions.
• Metals are mixed with precious metals moving horizontally as the DXY trades flat intraday spot gold and spot silver taking a breather following yesterday’s hefty losses.
• Libya’s NOC Chair says current production is 1.3mln BPD (vs 1.218mln on 6th Nov), planning a bidding round for offshore/onshore blocks for end-2024. In the early stage to identify blocks. Says seeing a lot of interest for upcoming bid round from US, European and Asian firms. On track to increase production capacity to 2mln BPD in the next three-five years. Says hopefully oil production will increase by 100k BPD by end-2024.
• Russia’s Kremlin, when asked if Russian President Putin will discuss coordinated actions on oil market, says such discussions are held in OPEC+ format but the issue is always on the agenda; Kremlin confirms Putin will visit Saudi and UAE on Wednesday. Russian President Putin is to discuss oil market issues in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to Tass
• Brazilian miner Vale expects iron ore market to remain tight in the coming years, says China cannot control the price of iron ore and there is no supply coming
• China’s NDRC will cut retail gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 55/ton and CNY 50/ton, respectively, commending Dec 6th; NDRC sees weaker oil prices in the short term

Geopolitics

• Israel is reportedly mulling a plan to flood Gaza tunnels with seawater, according to WSJ.
• Israel’s army said its fighter jets attacked Hezbollah positions, infrastructure and military in response to a recent shooting, according to AJA Breaking via social media platform X.
• Investors with prior knowledge of the October 7th attack on Israel by Hamas made at least tens of millions of pounds shorting Israeli stocks, according to The Telegraph.
• US National Security Advisor Sullivan said attacks on vessels in the Red Sea are a threat to international peace and stability, while they have every reason to believe these attacks were fully enabled by Iran. Sullivan also said the US is engaging with allies on the next steps after the Red Sea attacks and weapons used by the Houthis in the attacks are being supplied by Iran.
• White House warned that a failure to approve additional aid for Ukraine would ‘kneecap’ Kyiv, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

• 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.8, prior 50.8
• 10:00: Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 9.3m, prior 9.55m
• 10:00: Nov. ISM Services Index, est. 52.3, prior 51.8
  • Nov. ISM Services New Orders, est. 54.9, prior 55.5
  • Nov. ISM Services Employment, est. 51.4, prior 50.2
  • Nov. ISM Services Prices Paid, est. 58.0, prior 58.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have lost a little of their recent poise over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.54%) coming off its YTD high from Friday, just as yields on 2yr Treasury yields (+9.6bps) moved back up to 4.64%. There hasn’t been a specific catalyst for the softness, but the astonishing rally in November and long positioning has led to some scepticism about how much further it’s able to run, at least until we get some more data that’s soft-landing friendly. After all, even though markets are fully pricing in a Fed rate cut by the May meeting in just 5 months’ time, this isn’t the first time this year that rate cut speculation has built up. In fact, at the height of the SVB turmoil in March, futures were fully pricing in a rate cut by the July meeting, which was just 4 months away. So it’ll be fascinating to see the extent to which the FOMC’s dot plot next week validates or pushes back on current market pricing, which is now looking for 124bps of cuts in 2024 .

When it comes to the Fed’s next meeting, today kicks off a run of important data releases that will help shape the 2024 outlook. That includes the ISM services index, which will be in particular focus after the manufacturing number underwhelmed on Friday. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q4 stands at just 1.2%, which if realised would be the weakest quarterly growth since Q2 2022. Alongside that, we’ll get the JOLTS report for October, which have shown job openings actually ticking back up over the last couple of months, suggesting that the labour market was still pretty tight. For instance, there were still 1.5 job vacancies per unemployed individual in September, which is still clearly above its pre-pandemic level around 1.2. We’ll see if that’s changed today.

Ahead of those releases, the S&P 500 (-0.54%) was unable to sustain its recent gains, suffering its worst start to a week since February. To be fair, it’s worth noting that the decline was fairly concentrated among big tech stocks, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 up a marginal +0.03%. And the small cap Russell 2000 index (+1.04%) actually rose for the fourth session in a row. But even so, it wasn’t much consolation for those segments that did lose ground, with both the NASDAQ (-0.84%) and the Magnificent 7 (-1.61%) seeing a notable underperformance .

Meanwhile on the rates side, there was a fairly sharp bounceback in Treasury yields following last week’s declines. The 10yr yield rose +5.8bps to 4.21%, though it rallied in the latter part of the US session having been up as much as +10bps intra-day. There were larger moves at the front-end as the 2yr yield (+9.6bps) saw its biggest daily increase in four weeks, moving back up to 4.63%. That came as investors took out some of the cuts priced in for 2024, with the total amount falling by -10.2bps to 124bps. And in turn, with investors expecting slightly fewer rate cuts, real yields also bounced back, with the 10yr real yield (+7.2bps) moving back above 2% again .

That advance in real yields put a pause to the gold rally over recent days. At the open, gold prices did manage to hit an all-time intraday high of $2135/oz, but by the close they were down a full -2.23% to $2026/oz. So a 5.56pp range on the day, which is a huge intra-day swing for Gold. Although we hit fresh all-time highs during the session, it’s worth noting that this is still only a nominal high point, since if you adjust for inflation then prices were higher in the early 1980s, in 2011, and even at the recent peak in 2020. Elsewhere in the commodities space, Brent Crude oil prices (-1.08%) were down again to $78.03/bbl, building on their run of 6 consecutive weekly declines .

Over in Europe, the market moves were much less aggressive yesterday, with the STOXX 600 only falling -0.09%. Similarly for sovereign bonds, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps) actually fell back to a 5-month low of 2.35%, and others including 10yr OATs (+0.2bps) and BTPs (+2.5bps) only saw a modest increase. Gilts were the main exception to that pattern, with the 10yr yield up +5.5bps, as the 10yr real yield (+9.6bps) even hit a one-month high.

Asian equity markets are slipping this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.76%) emerging as the biggest underperformer followed by the Nikkei (-1.15%), the CSI (-0.80%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.69%) and the KOSPI (-0.38%). S&P 500 (-0.21%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.24%) futures are edging lower.

Early morning data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rate rose by +2.6% y/y in November (v/s +3.0% expected), its slowest rise since July 2022 and compared with a downwardly revised increase of +3.2% in the previous month. Core CPI rose +2.3% in November (v/s +2.4% expected) from a year earlier down from a +2.7% gain in October thus clouding the BOJ’s exit path a touch. The BOJ next meet on Dec. 18-19 with our view that they will remove YCC in January. Elsewhere, China’s Caixin services PMI for November advanced to a three-month high of 51.5 (v/s 50.5 expected and 50.4 in October), thus diverging from the nation’s official PMI data that showed a contraction .

In monetary policy action, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at a 12-year high of 4.35% as consensus expected at its final board meeting of 2023. With the RBA’s statement viewed as being on the dovish side, the Aussie currency has come under renewed selling pressure, dropping -0.54% to trade at 0.6584 versus the dollar .

Looking back at yesterday’s data, October factory orders were the one notable release in the US. These saw a -3.6% monthly decline (vs -3.0% exp) and with September revised down to +2.3% from +2.8%. The less volatile non-defense capital goods series was revised down to -0.2% from 0.0% in the advance reading. So adding to a sense of weakening US growth momentum in Q4.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index for November, and the JOLTS job openings for October. Elsewhere, there’s the global services and composite PMIs for November and Euro Area PPI for October. From central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for October.

A protracted downturn in China’s real estate sector as well as a broader economic deceleration, but most of all downside risks from China’s record debt load which is now well over 300% of GDP…

… has led Moody’s Investors Service to downgrade China’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to negative. 

While the revision does not signify Moody’s will imminently downgrade China’s credit rating, it does increase the odds if persistently lower growth and troubles in the property sector do not diminish. 

As the FT reports, the rating agency – which one month ago also lowered its US credit rating to negative – was concerned that government and state firms would provide fresh financial support to weak regions in the country, “posing broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength.” And they will, because they have no other choice, and the alternative is economic collapse and social upheaval.

The deteriorating outlook comes as the latest housing data in the world’s second-largest economy shows no end in sight for the property crisis amid worsening home sales. We noted last month that home prices plunged the most in eight years. 

Accelerating turmoil in the property market is further evidence that fiscal and housing stimulus to reboot the economy has failed so far, and perhaps a depression is unavoidable. 

Another concern is that local government debt has surged due to plummeting land sale revenues from the property downturn and pandemic lockdowns. This raises fears of a broader financial crisis. Additionally, there are mounting worries in China’s $3 trillion “shadow banking” sector, primarily because of bad property investments. 

For the broader economy, Moody’s forecasts GDP growth around 4% in 2024 and 2025 – nearly halved from 2019 levels. 

Moody’s also maintained an A1 rating on China’s sovereign bonds: 

“The affirmation of the A1 rating reflects China’s financial and institutional resources to manage the transition in an orderly fashion.

“Its economy’s vast size and robust, albeit slowing, potential growth rate, support its high shock-absorption capacity.”

China’s Finance Ministry, predictably, called Moody’s decision “disappointing”:

“China’s economy is shifting to high-quality development, new drivers of China’s economic growth are taking effect, and China has the ability to continue to deepen reforms and respond to risks and challenges,” adding that Moody’s concerns about the country’s growth and fiscal profile are “unnecessary.”

Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, responded to the decision and warned it’s tough to turn constructive on Chinese assets and the yuan.

“It was notable that the decline in USD/CNY towards the end of November didn’t necessarily coincide with an improvement in China’s macro outlook, without which we think it is difficult to turn constructive on Chinese assets and the yuan,” Harvey said.

As a result, the yuan extended losses on Tuesday. China equity indexes, including the CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, fell 1.90% and 1.91%, respectively. 

Bloomberg indicated that details of Moody’s decision were leaked prior to the official announcement, with speculations suggesting a possible leak as early as last Friday. 

Last week, the OECD warned that “structural stresses” in China contributed to downside risk to global growth. 

This comes less than a month after Moody’s cut its outlook on US credit ratings to negative from stable, citing downside risks to the world’s largest economy’s fiscal strength. 

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The primary stages of grief include: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance.

When it comes to grieving over the slow demise of the American economy, sovereign IOU/USD and the absolute failure of our “re-election-only-focused” policy makers, these stages of grief are easy to see yet easier to ignore.

But false hope won’t help us.

Denying a Recession

With the vast majority of sectors that make up the U.S. economy evidencing three months of negative GDP growth while a laundry list of leading homebuilder indicators (housing starts and prospective buyers) drops into recessionary red, I keep wondering when the recession debate will finally end.

Walmart is worrying, Jamie Dimon is worrying, commercial real estate delinquencies are rising and IPO markets are all but dead on arrival.

But that’s just the latest hard data.

One can cite everything from the Conference Board of Leading Indicators, negative M2 growth, yield curve movements and a drying repo market to make it empirically clear that the US is not heading for recession but has already been in one for nearly a year.

In fact, if we were to define a Depression by growth rates of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita, then factually speaking, we have also been in a quantifiable depression for the last 16 years.

Such data, of course, is depressing, but are we all still hoping for kinder facts or a political and monetary Santa Claus to cure our denial?

I for one favor preparation over denial.

Then Comes the Anger

Citizens storming the Capital, or grabbing guitars and singing “I’m taxed to no end and my dollar aint $#!T” are just the first signs of  the anger stage.

Even if the average (and indeed heroic) member of a grotesquely ravaged middle class can’t fully articulate every nasty detail of Wall Street lingo behind a Rigged to Fail market economy, they are catching on to a system which has turned capitalism into feudalism–making them veritable serfs while C-Suite hucksters, from Sam Bankman Fried to Adam Neumann fashion themselves as lords of the manor.

(Now Barron Larry Summers has joined the Marquis de Sam Altman at OpenAI, the perfect combo of perfect [insider] little devils.)

The backbone of America may not fully know the statistics which confirm that 90% of the wealth created by a Fed-driven market bubble circa 2009 was enjoyed by only the top 10%, but they certainly can “feel” it.

Meanwhile, the politicos and central bankers will keep inventing platitudes to mask honest math as market pundits debate soft and hard landings while US voters prepare for an election between a dark-state sleep-walker and an arrested-state swamp-cleaner as soldiers and money are ear-marked toward no-win wars.

Next, the Bargaining and the Depression

Despite obvious evidence of an angry, post-lockdown/mandate society and economy in open decline, some folks still want to believe (bargain) in the iconic America and intuitively turn toward the public “experts” for a miracle solution.

But as I’ve warned with facts rather than invective: Please don’t trust the experts.

The squawking and headlines from our mental midgets in DC are clever diversions from current truths, but as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz, recently made factually clear, truth is as fatal to policy makers as garlic is to vampires.

This, again, IS depressing. And according to the current Zeitgeist (and clinical depression/anxiety data from big pharma), depressed is exactly where America sits today.

Finally: Stone Cold Acceptance

Now that we pass from denial, anger, bargaining and depression, it’s time to accept the recession which our leaders refuse to acknowledge.

Acceptance, at the very least, allows us to think and then act even in the worst of settings.

So then: What can we ACCEPT, EXPECT, and hence DO while our policy makers fight for votes like donkeys scurrying for hay?

Deflation, Inflation and a Neutered Dollar Ahead

The short answer is this: Brace yourselves for a deflation to inflation roller coaster followed by bond volatility and a currency-killing wave of fake money.

Why?

Because math and history still matter.

Whether admitted or hidden, recessions tend to clip the wings of tax receipts. But what does that have to do with markets, currencies and, well… each of us?

In fact, a heck of a lot.

Falling Tax Receipts + Rising Deficits = “Super QE”

In a recession, we can reasonably assume a potential tax receipt decline of 10% in 2024. This will come at the same time that Entitlement spending is rising by 10%.

That’s a double-whammy.

And if one were to then include (as Luke Gromen has done) an average 4% interest rate for 2024, then all of these recessionary percentage numbers add up to a stark piece of easy math but hard days ahead.

That is, we are looking down the barrel of a probable (rather than sensational) True Interest Expense on Uncle Sam’s public debt equal to 120% of US tax receipts.

Think about that.

This percentage is higher than what we saw during the COVID crash of 2020, which was followed by unthinkable trillions of fake money from our equally fake, but all too human, Federal Reserve.

Having thus done the math, Gromen foresees “Super QE” ahead, and I agree.

Relative Strength Is Still No Strength: Brace for Inflationary End-Game

For me at least, this means all the debating about the USD’s relative strength, is still missing the point of its ever-debasing (and hence declining) inherent strength in the face of an impending deluge of “easy money” to keep Uncle Sam on his clay feet.

In other words, get ready for lots and lots of inflationary and currency-debasing fake money in the months ahead once a deflationary recession and potential market massacre are followed by an inflationary fire hose of “accommodative” liquidity (and rate cuts).

No Good Options Left

If not, Uncle Sam’s only other option is to remain higher-for longer, whereby the USD spikes on the tailwind of higher rates as the rest of the world, beaten down by an expensive USD, falls flat on its face ala Japan.

But even in such a scenario, the end-game, which has been true for every debt-cornered nation, empire, kingdom or democracy in history (from ancient Rome to today) will be the same: Save a broken system by killing its currency.

This recession-based prognosis on the longer-term direction of the Fed, rates and the USD is no surprise to the bond jocks either.

Accepting Bond Market Reality

Having argued that history and math matter, let me repeat that bonds matter even more.

What are they telling us?

In recent weeks, investors have been dumping dollars and leaping into longer-duration bonds in anticipation of a recessionary “safe-haven.” This explains recent falls in UST yields.

In fact, investors are overweight bonds at levels not seen since 2009.

For retail investors, this flow toward bonds is based on the belief that inflation and yields will drop in 2024 thanks to Powell’s brilliant war on inflation having been won.

Eh-Hmmm.

But portfolio managers are jumping into bonds because they see a recession ahead and are positioning themselves to be early buyers of a rising (i.e., Fed-rescued) bond price.

Smart Money & Dumb Money: Both Wrong

What’s ironic, however, is that both the so-called “smart” and the “dumb” money may be wrong for totally different reasons, as they are each missing the longer-term forces at play—namely an over-supply flood of more USTs ahead.

This means falling bonds and rising yields—longer term.

Why do I take this view? Well, because recessions are not only easy to see, but easy to pattern.

Missing the Importance of UST Over-Supply

Recessions, for example, typically mean growing deficits, and growing deficits mean more USTs spitting out of Uncle Sam’s IOU box.

This looming rise in UST supply eventually means more downward rather than upward pressure on UST pricing longer term.

Thus, even if the USD spikes near term into 2024, foreigners pegged to that expensive Dollar will dump even more of their $7.6T worth of USTs to “milk-shake-suck” more needed USDs, adding even further downward pressure on UST pricing.

By natural math, and simple history, this decline in UST pricing due to massive UST over-supply will spur even higher yields, which in turn means higher rates, which in turn means Uncle Sam won’t be able to afford/pay his higher-rate IOUs without a lot of help from the inflationary money printers at the Eccles Building.

Short of a default or Bretton Woods 2.0, such mouse-clicked money is all Uncle Sam will have left to pay for his own and ever-increasing debt.

This is How Currencies Die

Again, this end-game is nothing new. In fact, it’s always the same choice: Save the bonds or kill the currency.

And you know where my bet (and history’s lesson) lies.

In the interim, be ready for a bumpy ride and more debating pundits splitting hairs on the Dollar, the UST, interest rates, M2 data, CPI correlations and FOMC tea leaves.

Toward this end, yes, the USD can rise, as can UST demand and price. And yes, deflation can, and will come as well—prior to much higher inflation.

This is because the longer play is as easy to see as the destiny of any debt-soaked nation: More and more IOUs paid for with a weaker and weaker currency.

Or stated more contemporaneously, get ready for rising and then falling USTs and falling and then rising yields “saved” by more fake Dollars to “accommodate” an already and inevitably over-supplied UST from an objectively broke America.

Milk-Shake Straws & Sponges Won’t Save the Dollar

To those who follow the milk-shake theory, there is the defensible view that enough national and global demand for USDs will act as a powerful sponge to soak up all the printed Dollars to come, keeping the DXY value of the USD forever (and relatively) safe, strong and victorious.

Hmmm…

But I lean on the view that even a super sponge (or global “straw”) of such magnitude will be unable to absorb the fire hose of milk-shake liquidity about to come pouring through it in the years ahead to “keep America on a respirator again.”

More importantly, and as alluded above, even if the USD’s relative strength survives on the power of that magical sponge (or straw) of eternal Dollar demand, when measured in real terms—i.e., in terms of constant purchasing power –that Dollar’s inherent purchasing power will get weaker and weaker as inevitable synthetic/fake liquidity rises higher and higher.

And this is why anyone who measures their wealth in this paper currency is …well: Screwed.

Your Dollar simply buys less and less, and though it may be relatively stronger than other fiat currencies, is it really any consolation to be betting on the best patient in the ICU, when all the patients are in fact fatally ill? 

What very few pundits and even fewer investors wish to fully accept is that once debt levels for a nation go from absurd to flat-out inconceivable (i.e., a debt/GDP ratio of 120%+), the only real option ahead is to inflate away that debt with debased money.

This means Powell’s “war on inflation” is a public ruse.

As I’ve argued, he NEEDS inflation, but has the added luxury of being able to openly lie about the current CPI scale, which grossly under-reports actual inflation.

Too Late for Austerity

As for the more sober approach of simply confessing to America’s debt nightmare and accepting the need for austerity, the FED, which was created by (and lives only for) Wall Street, knows that any such attempt at austerity sends the sovereign bond market into a liquidity crisis.

In the second quarter of 2022 and the 3rd quarter of 2023, brief attempts at governmental “austerity” resulted in immediate dysfunction in the UST market.

In short, it’s too late for austerity. Sovereign bonds can’t stomache the volatility which follows and which we are now seeing in real time.

America’s current debt/GDP ratio is too high for an austerity option as it would cripple credit markets, drive down GDP, further weaken tax receipts and hence make Uncle Sam’s IOUs even harder to pay.

Again, few investors wish to fully accept that America has “no way out.” The nation is too far in debt to “GDP its way” forward, which means it’s left with “inflating/printing its way backward.”

Gold Investors See What Few Are Willing to Accept

Or stated more simply: Your currency is about to lose even more of its already diluted purchasing power.

Gold investors, whether on Main Street, Wall Street or among a BRICS+ nations, of course, are not afraid to see (and ACCEPT) this.

Even Central Banks see this: They are net seller’s of USTs and buying physical gold at record levels.

In short, many have already replaced false hope and paper money with cold facts and real money to preserve their wealth.

What about you?

The U.S. Department of Defense has revised its figures related to heart inflammation cases following COVID-19 vaccination. This change marks yet another instance in the military’s ongoing efforts to navigate the complex landscape of vaccine side effects.

Ashish Vazirani, the acting under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness, cited an Oct. 11 report which says that the number of myocarditis and pericarditis cases post-vaccination among military personnel is now estimated between 80 and 90. This contrasts sharply with the previous count of 120 cases within 21 days of vaccination, a number that also excluded additional cases occurring beyond this time frame. The Pentagon’s silence in response to inquiries adds an air of mystery to this sudden recalibration.

This revision emerges as the latest in a series of actions perceived as downplaying the vaccine’s side effects. In 2021, amidst data indicating diminishing vaccine efficacy, the military continued to mandate vaccination for all members, regardless of their recovery from COVID-19 or the emerging evidence suggesting the superiority of natural immunity over vaccination. This mandate was only recently lifted under new legislation signed by President Joe Biden.

Myocarditis and pericarditis, both forms of heart inflammation, were recognized as adverse events shortly after the vaccine rollout. Notably, 2021 saw a significant rise in myocarditis cases within the military, which was openly acknowledged over the summer.

The recent disclosure by Mr. Vazirani in a letter to Senator Ron Johnson further complicates matters. He highlights the challenge in reporting precise adverse event numbers due to the complexities in establishing a direct causal link between vaccination and clinical diagnoses. This statement contradicts an earlier report to Representative Mike Rogers, which cited 326 cases of myocarditis, 351 cases of pericarditis, and 353 heart attacks among military personnel. These numbers, derived from the Defense Medical Surveillance System and the Theater Medical Data Store, reveal a stark discrepancy in reported figures.

Mr. Vazirani, in the follow-up missive, said that the military included members in the prior vaccination group who had a prior infection and members in the prior infection group who had a prior vaccination. He did not provide a breakdown of members with vaccination without prior infection or other subcategories.

In the report shared in September, the military said the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis was higher in members within 45 days of infection compared to members without infection, while the incidence was also higher among members who received a vaccine dose within 21 days of myocarditis or pericarditis was higher than those who did not receive a vaccine. The results, though, showed that members were at higher risk following infection, though in absolute numbers, more members were recorded as suffering inflammation after vaccination than after infection. –Epoch Times

The inconsistency in reported numbers has raised questions and concerns. Senator Johnson has been actively seeking explanations for the observed surge in certain diagnoses during the pandemic. Whistleblowers have also played a crucial role, initially revealing a spike in myocarditis cases in 2021 through the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database. However, subsequent changes to these numbers, attributed to a “database maintenance process,” have only added to the confusion.

In 2023, another whistleblower reported further alterations in the recorded cases, with the Pentagon confirming 275 cases among members in 2021. This evolving narrative raises questions about the reliability and transparency of military health record-keeping.

The implications of these changes are significant, particularly when considering the potential long-term effects of post-vaccination myocarditis. Studies, including those by the CDC, have shown concerning findings in follow-up examinations of individuals who experienced myocarditis post-vaccination. Some patients, years after their initial diagnosis, report ongoing health issues, underscoring the need for continued research and vigilance in understanding and addressing vaccine-related complications.

Authored by David Thunder via The Brownstone Institute,

You might think that a government faced with a barbaric public stabbing of schoolchildren and an unprecedented night of rioting in its capital city would extend condolences to the victims, take a deep breath, and try to figure out how a city managed to spiral out of control on its watch. But instead, the riots in Dublin were met by a shallow, one-dimensional analysis by all of the key authorities involved: to blame the “far right.”

For example, Garda Commissioner Drew Harris blamed the violence on the streets on a “hooligan faction driven by far right ideology.” 

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar pledged at a news conference to “modernise our laws against incitement to hatred and hatred in general.”

And Minister for Justice Helen McEntee said that a “thuggish and manipulative element” was using the earlier incident to “wreak havoc.”

The Irish government would have us believe that the most destructive riot in Dublin in living memory was not a symptom of failed governance, but the result of an ideological fringe group going on a looting spree. That is a suspiciously convenient narrative for the powers that be, for it absolves them of all responsibility for losing control of the city. By fingering a Far-Right fringe, public officials can wash their hands of any role they themselves may have played in bringing the city to the brink of anarchy.

But blaming these riots on the “far-right” only serves as an excuse for not engaging in serious reflection about the deeper causes of this incendiary atmosphere, and the ensuing events. These events did not come out of nowhere and cannot be simplistically reduced to the work of a fringe “far-right” mob. “Far-right” talk is an excuse for not thinking hard about what led up to this and how public authorities lost control of Dublin’s city centre.

Of course, any sane and sensible person would recognise that going on a looting spree and setting fire to trams and buses is an absolutely destructive, anti-social, and counterproductive way to react to a horrible crime. And given that there is documentary evidence that some of the rioters used explicitly anti-immigrant rhetoric, yes, there was undeniably an element of “Far-Right” sentiment at work in these riots, if, by that, we mean indiscriminate hatred and anger directed toward immigrants in general.

Nonetheless, to suggest that Thursday’s chaotic scenes can be blamed exclusively on the “Far-Right” would be profoundly disingenuous.

To begin with, many of the “hooligans” that joined the riots seemed at least as interested in looting shops and finding an excuse to set something on fire as in joining a political movement.

Secondly, even if there were important xenophobic elements among the rioters, this does not explain how a city can be so fragile as to succumb to chaos and looting in a few hours.

The attempt to scapegoat the “Far-Right” for the breakdown in public order that we saw on Thursday conveniently ignores the fact that successive Irish governments have allowed criminals to wander the streets of Dublin with relative ease.

Budding criminals know they will face lenient sentences, partly because there is simply no room in Irish jails to hold them for long, leading to a “revolving door” scenario in our prisons, as pointed out five months ago by the Irish Prison Services.

People feel less safe in Dublin city than ever before, and there is a widespread belief that criminals in Dublin can act with impunity, or else will not suffer a prison sentence proportionate to their crimes.

The government most certainly must answer for failing to address this problem over the years. This failure most certainly cannot be blamed on “far-right” ideology.

Thirdly, while there is no excuse for attacking police officers or setting vehicles alight, the Irish government has undoubtedly paved the way for these riots by refusing to listen to its citizens for years. Ireland’s political establishment has consistently been dismissive toward reasonable concerns about its immigration and refugee policies, reducing them to the rantings of a “Far-Right” fringe. This has created an atmosphere of pent-up resentment and frustration, and it was only a matter of time before this frustration erupted onto the streets.

Many aspects of Ireland’s immigration policies strike people as profoundly unfair and destructive, including allowing very large numbers of asylum-seekers to avail of free or cheap housing on the taxpayer’s dime while Irish citizens are frozen out of the housing market; and flooding local communities with large numbers of refugees with no prior consultation whatsoever. In response to complaints, the Irish government has just doubled down, and given us more of the same “open-door” immigration policies.

So when a city is taken over by thugs for a night, we should be less worried about whether there were “far-right” elements among them, and more worried about why they felt they could openly engage in this level of brazen violence and destruction and get away with it; and how the atmosphere in Dublin become so tense and angry that a single stabbing incident, however unspeakable, could spark riots on a level we have not seen in generations.

*  *  *

Republished from the author’s Substack

Despite the so-called warnings about ‘climate change’ and ‘hottest year ever’ supported by ‘fuzzy’ climate math, world leaders, corporate elites, and Hollywood stars continue to fly around in fancy private jets. At the same time, the working poor are being told by an overreaching and corrupt government they must give up gas stoves, drive electric vehicles, and eat insect burgers. 

If scamming elites actually cared about the environment and did not virtue-signal every step of the way, then private jet demand would be cratering. However, it is not. 

Taylor Swift took her private jet to see her Football player boyfriend play in Greenbay. She jetted out a few hours later. The next time you see this hypocrite, Taylor Swift complain about climate change, hit her over her head with this post. pic.twitter.com/UyE3EnfPEf

— Ron Milner (@RonMilnerBoodle) December 4, 2023

John Kerry at every global warming conference he takes a private jet to. https://t.co/R45gCYX6Oq pic.twitter.com/nnFdrcEqA6

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) December 3, 2023

The alarmist WEF King Charles claimed at COP28, “there is thirty per cent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now” – whilst flying around in his private jet. 🤡 #ClimateScam pic.twitter.com/oDWy9VdxzS

— Political B 🇬🇧🌸 (@p_beejal) December 2, 2023

The Federal Aviation Administration’s new monthly Business Jet Report shows that private jet activity in October jumped to the highest level in more than a year, reaching 459,000. 

Accelerating private jet demand is happening at a time when climate alarmist elites have a weird obsession with lecturing everyone else about doomsday climate prophecies if cow farts and fossil fuel cars aren’t banned. 

Hypocrite Bill Gates provided the latest warning about climate change at the annual United Nations meeting in Dubai on Sunday. He said, “Climate progress is moving ahead even though we won’t meet our highest aspirations.”

Well, Bill, if you and the other elites who attended COP28 cared about the environment and didn’t use virtue signals – then flying coach would be a better option than a private jet.  

But, of course, elites will never give up their private jets and mega-yachts because there is a two-tier society where the rules that apply to the working poor don’t apply to them. 

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The United States and 21 other countries from four continents signed a pledge at the United Nations climate summit on Dec. 2 to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 from the levels recorded in 2020.

The declaration was signed at the U.N. Climate Change Conference, also known as COP28, held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. It recognizes “the key role of nuclear energy in achieving global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and keeping the 1.5-degree goal within reach.”

“Core elements of the declaration include working together to advance a goal of tripling nuclear energy capacity globally by 2050 and inviting shareholders of international financial institutions to encourage the inclusion of nuclear energy in energy lending policies,” the U.S. Department of Energy stated.

The countries that endorsed the pledge are the United States, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ghana, Hungary, Japan, South Korea, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom.

In the declaration, the 22 signatory countries promise to “support the development and construction of nuclear reactors,” such as small modular and other advanced reactors for power generation.

They pledged to “mobilize investments in nuclear power,” including through innovative financing mechanisms, such as engaging with shareholders of the World Bank, international financial institutions, and regional development banks.

It recognizes the importance of extending the lifetimes of nuclear power plants “that operate in line with the highest standards of safety, sustainability, security, and non-proliferation, as appropriate.”

The declaration also includes a commitment to “support responsible nations looking to explore new civil nuclear deployment under the highest standards of safety, sustainability, security, and non-proliferation.”

Speaking at the summit, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the world can’t achieve “net zero” emissions without building new reactors.

“We are not making the argument that this is absolutely going to be the sweeping alternative to every other energy source,” Mr. Kerry said during a launch ceremony.

“But … you can’t get to net zero 2050 without some nuclear, just as you can’t get there without some use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage.”

Global nuclear capacity now stands at 370 gigawatts, with 31 countries running reactors. That accounts for almost 10 percent of the world’s total electricity and a quarter of its low-carbon supply. However, tripling that capacity by 2050 would require a significant scaling up in new approvals and finance.

IAEA Backs Nuclear Power

Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that achieving global net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require “swift, sustained and significant investment” in nuclear energy.

“Resilient and robust nuclear power has the potential to play a wider role in the quest towards net zero carbon emissions while ensuring the highest level of nuclear safety and security,” he said at the summit.

“It can help to decarbonize district heating, desalination, industry processes, and hydrogen production.”

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi speaks with journalists after he and a part of the IAEA mission came back from a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant at a Ukrainian checkpoint on Sept. 1, 2022. (Anna Voitenko/Reuters)

Mr. Grossi also emphasized the need to maintain operating nuclear power plants to construct a low-carbon bridge. Nuclear power produces almost no greenhouse gas emissions.

“Continuous plant life management and refurbishment ensure the ongoing safety and reliability of our existing fleet, allowing it to provide decarbonized energy to the electric grid and other sectors,” he said.

“Net zero needs nuclear power.”

Corn prices tumbled to a three-year low as mounting supplies from the US and Brazil collided with sliding demand. This downturn helped push down the Bloomberg Grain Spot Subindex, which tracks near-term futures contracts for soybeans, corn, and wheat, leading to its largest annual decline in a decade.

Bloomberg Grain Spot Subindex records the worst yearly slump since 2013. 

Ag traders are waiting for a US Department of Agriculture’s monthly WASDE report on Friday to gauge the status of foreign and domestic harvests. 

Despite the large decline in grain prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, is still at highs responsible for the Arab Spring food riots across the Middle East in 2010-11. 

Last month, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, warned the current global food crisis has surpassed that of the Arab Spring because crop prices remain high while local currencies around the world have plunged against the dollar.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

The ludicrous state of free speech in the UK is being exposed by the fact that a former police officer is facing prison for merely ‘implying’ something offensive in a meme sent to a private WhatsApp group.

62-year-old Michael Chadwell sent a meme which featured multi-colored parrots and children of diverse ethnic backgrounds accompanied by text asking why diversity is celebrated in animal species but not humanity.

A Facebook comment below the meme said, “Because I’ve never had a bike stolen out of my front yard by a parrot.”

Chadwell now faces six months in prison under the Communications Act 2003 for what the court deemed a “grossly offensive” implication, meaning he was not even convicted for the content of the meme, but what other people might take from it.

District Judge Tan Ikram rejected Chadwell’s defense that the meme was simply akin to a Monty Python sketch and was poking fun at woke culture, asserting that it was intended to mean “black people steal.”

Because as everyone knows – black people never steal!

There’s something so profoundly ironic about a justice system that can convict an ex-copper for chatting shit on WhatsApp, but can barely keep up with the flow of rapists, murderers and abusers still on the force.https://t.co/kxlJQxr3eD

— David Andress (@ProfDaveAndress) November 6, 2023

“This ruling by Judge Ikram introduces a troubling standard in legal interpretation,” writes Ben Squires.

“By inferring a grossly offensive meaning from a meme and considering this sufficient for a conviction, the court has ventured into the realm of punishing perceived implications, a move that blurs the lines between actual speech and inferred meanings.”

“This latest development, where judges adjudicate on the supposed implications of a message, escalates the risk of arbitrary judicial decisions. The problem is compounded in the realm of digital communication, where context and tone are crucial and often misunderstood.”

This completely eliminates all nuance and empowers judges to decide what’s “offensive” based on their own personal biased interpretation.

Chadwell, along with other officers who took part in the private chat group, is set to be sentenced later this week at Westminster Magistrates’ Court.

As we previously highlighted, last year, former police officer James Watts was jailed for 20 weeks for the ‘crime’ of posting offensive George Floyd memes in private WhatsApp and Facebook group chats.

It remains a mystery as to why so many police officers appear ready to believe ‘stereotypes’ about black people. Where could they possibly be developing such prejudices?

*  *  *

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Israel has issued new severe travel advisories for dozens of countries for its citizens, related to backlash over the Gaza war. Israeli authorities have said Israelis and Jewish persons abroad face possible violence due to what they say is a rise in antisemitism. 

Some countries were raised to a “Level 3” alert – which means Israelis should cancel or postpone travel plans. This has included countries in Africa – such as South Africa and Eritrea – and the central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The threat level has been raised for a whopping 80 countries total amid the ongoing Gaz war, a new list shows.

Interestingly, the new update also lists countries in Western Europe as posing a risk. These were raised to “Level 2” status, which urges Israelis to implement precautions while there: France, Germany, and the UK. South American countries were also included at this level, including the large countries of Argentina and Brazil, both with sizable minority Jewish populations. Russia and Australia are also at Level 2.

Ultimately, Israel’s government is advising the citizenry only to conduct essential travel, per a National Security Council statement:

“Since the beginning of the war there have been increased efforts identified from Iran and its affiliates, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to target Israelis and Jews around the world,” the National Security Council said in a statement.

“On this basis, along with the rising levels of incitement, attempted attacks and antisemitism around the world, the National Security Council has reiterated its recommendation for Israelis to reconsider any nonessential travel at this time.”

The National Security Council has further produced the below map as well as an accompanying chart which details official alerts and cautions issued for each country…

Israelis have also been told to avoid all protests and public demonstrations when abroad. Gaza-related protests especially in France or other parts of Europe have at times gotten violent and turned into riots.

In late October a Muslim mob in the Russian republic of Dagestan stormed a main airport and its runways after rumors that a flight from Tel Aviv landed there. The shocking episode garnered international attention given the intensity of the footage, which included angry local men seeking out Jews to attack.