Tucker Carlson sat down with Steve Bannon to discuss last week’s terrorist incident in Ireland – where an Algerian immigrant went on a stabbing spree in downtown Dublin, attacking five people – including three children. Following the stabbing, anti-immigrant riots broke out across the country over the government’s general pro-immigrant policies.

“Several days ago, a man in his 50s for reasons that are still not clear stabbed five people outside a school in Dublin, Ireland, including three children, and then almost immediately after, parts of that City erupted into rioting,” said Carlson, adding “The Washington Post stepped in helpfully to explain, here’s the Tweet The Washington Post sent out quote ‘online rumors claimed the perpetrator of a stabbing attack was an immigrant’.”

“Actually, the man was an immigrant,” Carlson continued. “He was from Algeria and as it turns out he’s been living in Ireland for 23 years at public expense, he has never had a job.”

Ireland’s Transformation and the Role of Immigration

The conversation quickly pivoted to the broader implications of immigration in Ireland, with Carlson criticizing the country’s significant transformation due to immigration, suggesting a deliberate plan. “That country has been completely transformed by immigration,” he argued.

Bannon echoed Carlson’s sentiments, criticizing the Irish political class for “selling out” the people and compared the situation in Ireland with the rest of Europe, particularly with the policies of Victor Orban in Hungary and the general trend in Germany.

“Ireland’s probably one of the worst if not the worst because the political class has totally sold out the people,” said Bannon, adding “Ireland is a powder keg and I think what you saw the other day in the response by the Garda, the response by the authorities was immediately to go after Conor McGregor and other folks who were saying hey we need to address this.”

Steve Bannon tells Tucker Carlson: “The Irish politicians are by far the worst that are bought off by the EU. They’re the biggest globalists, they’ve sold out the sovereignty of the Irish, and you’re seeing a natural blowback.” pic.twitter.com/wCsXzbhIw5

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) November 28, 2023

The bigger picture

Going beyond Ireland, Carlson and Bannon discussed the situation in the United States and other Western countries – with Bannon voicingconcerns about increasing immigration and its impact on native populations, drawing parallels with Ireland’s situation. “The political class is very tied to Brussels,” Bannon noted, implying a disconnect between the governing elite and the populace.

“The Germans and the people in Brussels, the party of Davos just doesn’t think the working-class European population is very controllable, they think they’re dangerous,” said Bannon.

Steve Bannon tells Tucker Carlson: “We’re going to have a firestorm in this country that is going to pale in comparison, I think, to what you saw in Ireland last week.” pic.twitter.com/JIrOoVPBwW

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) November 28, 2023

The pair also touched on future concerns, including rising national debt and the potential for social unrest.

Bannon in particular warned about the financial implications of immigration policies was stark: “We are Beyond broke; we are technically in bankruptcy right now.”

Watch:

Ep. 41 Dublin in flames. What’s happening in Ireland will happen here, at scale. Steve Bannon explains. pic.twitter.com/KzrRUJq0ZL

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) November 27, 2023

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.com,

A journalist tried to publicly shame a Kansas City Chiefs child fan after the kid wore a native headdress and painted his face black and red for the game.

Carron J. Phillips wrote an entire article for Deadspin complaining about how the NFL needs to “speak out” against the boy, who looked to be about 9 or 10-years-old.

He falsely accused the child of displaying “black face,” using an image that hid the other side of the fan’s face, which was painted red.

Why is @Deadspin @carronJphillips trying to ruin this little kid’s life? They’re accusing him of blackface but conveniently left out his full face which was painted for the game https://t.co/kFfgAL4aDH pic.twitter.com/750u5sfETE

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 28, 2023

When he was called out on it, Phillips doubled down, claiming that half his face being painted red “made it worse,” despite the fact that red and black are literally the colors of the Kansas City Chiefs.

For the idiots in my mentions who are treating this as some harmless act because the other side of his face was painted red, I could make the argument that it makes it even worse.

Y’all are the ones who hate Mexicans but wear sombreros on Cinco.@Deadspinhttps://t.co/MfoG8vArWs pic.twitter.com/oQTxhUeA00

— Carron J. Phillips (@carronJphillips) November 27, 2023

The journalist blocked replies to his post, but got absolutely rinsed in the comments elsewhere.

And another @CommunityNotes win exposing deception pic.twitter.com/ul5jmjbgRW

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 28, 2023

New photo of the person @Deadspin accused of being a vile racist who wore blackface at a football game.

(They tried to ruin this kid’s life)https://t.co/MEhDaQIIlS pic.twitter.com/5dvud08npf

— Bobby Burack (@burackbobby_) November 27, 2023

However much you hate the media you don’t hate them enough.

— Jeremy Carl (@jeremycarl4) November 28, 2023

Clown. @carronJphillips pic.twitter.com/fR7fFGEMZi

— Alex Rosen (@iFightForKids) November 28, 2023

Only a true coward would go after a little kid for dressing up for a football game

— Wealth Turtle 💰🐢 (@wealth_turtle) November 28, 2023

The @NFL needs to revoke all deadspin press passes until the article is retracted and deadspin publically apologizes.

— Henry Jones Jr. (@hnryjonesjr) November 28, 2023

Turns out Phillips just doesn’t like white people.

Turns out not only is @carronJphillips trying to destroy a little kid’s life with false accusations of blackface, he’s actually racist himself. They always accuse others of what they themselves are doing. pic.twitter.com/cm0iNf3qln

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 28, 2023

Carron Phillips is an unapologetic racist and a deceiver. Shame on him.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 28, 2023

Phillips boasts that he was awarded Philadelphia Association of Black Journalists’ ‘journalist of the year’.

Apparently, “journalism” is now publicly shaming children in an effort to sick mobs of demented left-wing activists on them.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our great merch.

Talks are still underway to extend the Hamas-Israel truce yet further, after both sides agreed Monday to initially extend it by two days. But it’s widely expected that Israel will restart its ground and aerial assault at some point soon, also given the Israeli military has already said Hamas has violated the terms of the pause in fighting.

“The Israel Defense Forces says a number of soldiers are lightly hurt after being attacked by Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip, in what appears to be the first serious violation of the ceasefire,” Times of Israel reports Tuesday. “Hamas accuses the IDF of violating the ceasefire first.”

Specifically multiple IEDs were said to have been set off near Israeli forces, also accompanied by gunfire from Hamas position. Thus the ongoing ceasefire is tenuous to say the lest.

As recently as Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel won’t waiver from its goal of completely destroying Hamas.

But Washington has begun to voice new objections amid the soaring Palestinian death toll, which has reportedly reached 15,000 – according to Palestinian sources. The Israeli government has disputed these figures, and President Biden himself has been on record as suggesting the Palestinian side has exaggerated civilian deaths. In late October he said:

“I have no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed,” Biden replied. “I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s the price of waging a war.”

The Biden administration has reiterated its warnings that Israel must be more surgical in its airstrikes. The US has also told Israel that the kind of mass civilian displacement that happened in the northern half of the Strip over the past seven weeks must not be replicated in the south.

The New York Times has called the warnings and restrictions the strongest from the White House to date concerning Israel’s next phase of fighting: 

The United States has warned Israel that it must fight more surgically and avoid further mass displacement of Palestinians in its war against Hamas to avoid a humanitarian crisis that overwhelms the world’s ability to respond, according to senior Biden administration officials.

The White House has told Israel that replicating the scale of its bombardment in northern Gaza as it makes an expected push into southern Gaza once the recent pause in fighting ends would produce a crisis beyond the capacity of any humanitarian support network, the officials said on Monday night. The United Nations has said the fighting has already displaced most of Gaza’s population of 2.2 million.

Per the reporting, the White House wants Israel to agree to not attack “areas of deconfliction” – especially UN shelters, which have previously been hit by bombardments.

“You cannot have the sort of scale of displacement that took place in the north, replicated in the south,” a US official was reported as saying to Israeli counterparts on a phone call. The IDF has previously warned it will open full operations even in the South, and has dropped leaflets in certain southern towns telling Gazans to evacuate.

⚡️Hamas publishes footage of the release of the fourth batch of Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip as part of the humanitarian truce pic.twitter.com/wPf8fs1pyO

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 27, 2023

Pressure and scrutiny have increased on President Biden as he heads into the election next November. As we detailed previously, The New York Times reported Saturday that Israel is killing Palestinian civilians in Gaza at a historic pace. The huge civilian death toll in Gaza is explained by the scale of the bombing campaign and Israel’s willingness to drop US-provided 2,000-pound bombs on densely populated areas that are packed with civilians.

Of course, there’s absolutely nothing “surgical” of about these US-supplied heavy bombs at all – and yet the US administration has still refused to place ‘conditions’ on Israel’s usage of supplied weaponry. However clearly the discussions have at least begun over potential new conditions. 

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Quantitative tightening isn’t working. At least not in the way you’d expect it to, with central-bank reserves rising, not falling. On top of that, excess liquidity remains high and is increasing, while rates are becoming less restrictive. Stocks have thus been rallying, and will continue to experience tailwinds as long as liquidity conditions remain favorable.

Soft, hard or no landing?

When it comes to stocks, at least in the medium term, it matters little. What does matter is liquidity, and its recent rise explains one of the best November performances in the S&P over the past 90 years.

Liquidity conditions have been improving in three key ways:

1. central bank reserves,

2. excess liquidity,

3. and the restrictiveness of rates.

With no sign that any of them is about to turn much lower imminently, stocks will continue to enjoy supportive liquidity tailwinds once the current overboughtness has been worked out.

The rise in reserves is the most surprising. The Federal Reserve began QT in June 2022; since then, its balance sheet has contracted by more than $1 trillion to sit at just under $8 trillion. But reserves, which underpin deposits and the liquidity of the banking system, are now higher than in June last year.

The change in the change of reserves typically leads the one-month performance of the S&P (as shown in the chart below). Reserve growth began to accelerate about a month ago, the same time as when the market began to rally.

The key factor leading to rising reserves despite ongoing QT is the government’s decision to fund a significant proportion of the fiscal deficit using T-bills. Make no mistake: if they had not, risk assets this year would have been in a much more precarious spot.

Funding much of the deficit using bills as opposed to longer-term debt has allowed money market funds (MMFs) to absorb the new supply of government debt. The Fed’s higher-for-longer message has kept the rate on bills higher than the rate on the reverse repo facility (RRP), meaning that MMFs have been incentivized to draw down on the RRP to buy bills.

If, instead, a non-bank corporate or a household were to have bought the bills, reserves would have fallen as they would have had to use bank deposits to pay for them. MMFs drawing down on the RRP, on other hand, mitigates the fall in reserves.

We can see how the liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet have changed over the last month in the chart below. The fall in the RRP of ~$130 billion more than offsets the ~$100 billion fall in the total size of the balance sheet, driven by QT as the Fed reduces the amount of assets it holds. That would mean about a $30 billion rise in reserves.

But reserves are in fact up much more than that as they have been boosted by the $150-$160 billion fall in the Treasury’s account at the Fed (the TGA). When the Treasury draws down on the TGA, reserves rise.

The resulting almost $200 billion rise in reserves has been a formidable tailwind for stocks over the last month.

Further, with the Treasury’s most recent quarterly refunding announcement the government implied they would continue skewing issuance towards bills, meaning that with still ~$1 trillion in the domestic RRP this dynamic can continue for the time being. This is a pro-cyclical fiscal deficit on speed.

Adding to stock tailwinds is excess liquidity – real money growth minus economic growth of the G10 countries in dollar terms – which continues to rise. By now it might have been expected to start rolling over, but there is little sign of that yet. Buoyant excess liquidity conditions since around March this year have been a key driver of this year’s stock rally.

Excess liquidity is the growth in liquidity “excess” to the needs of the real economy, and therefore available to support risk assets. Slowing growth, falling inflation and a weaker dollar have all boosted excess liquidity this year.

Also beneficial for stocks has been the easing in the degree of the restrictiveness in rates. The Fed has been on hold since July and the market is pricing in more rate cuts for next year. The yield curve has thus been steepening.

As the chart below shows, the yield curve is a close analogy of the degree of restrictiveness of the Fed’s policy rate (notwithstanding the vagaries of pinning down the neutral rate; here I have used the Holston-Laubach-Williams estimate). The yield-curve’s steepening is consistent with the real Fed rate becoming relatively less restrictive.

These are pretty benign conditions for stocks, and there are few obvious signs any of them – reserves, excess liquidity or the restrictiveness in short-term rates – are about to markedly deteriorate in the very near future.

Whether the US faces a near-term recession or not will ultimately be important for the path of stock prices, but in the interim liquidity conditions will offer one of the first clues as to when equities are about to face a harder ride.

What would an OPEC+ meeting week be without the parade of strawman, market-testing headlines dropped to gauge traders’ stress levels.

OPEC is set to hold an online meeting on Thursday, ahead of OPEC+ meeting later in the day to decide future oil production policy, a source said according to Reuters.

The meeting, which was postponed two days ago, is rescheduled at 4:00 PM KSA on Thursday according to a draft agenda seen by the news agency.

This morning, Reuters reports that, according to four sources:

• “talks are difficult” (well, no news there)

• “a further delay is possible” (possible… not probable)

• “policy rollover is a possibility” (that’s the kicker, we suspect, as bulls are clearly hoping for more cuts)

Bloomberg also confirms that, according to delegates, OPEC+ is no closer to resolving the deadlock over oil-output quotas for some African members that has already forced the group to delay a critical meeting amid faltering prices.

The Saudi-led alliance hasn’t been able to reach an agreement with Angola and Nigeria, which are pushing back against lower quota limits for 2024, which reflect their diminished production capabilities.

The reaction was swift from the algos…

We await the denials – or confirmations.

US equity futures and European stocks both fell for a second day amid signs the November rally in equities is overstretched with even such bullish Goldman luminaries (and flow gurus) as Scott Rubner calling an end to the meltup this week.   As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.3%, dropping to session lows amid rising speculation that the rally is over. Treasuries edge lower, with US 10-year yields rising 2bp to 4.40%, while the USD is flat while commodities are higher, led by Ags and Energy (ex-natgas) with energy reacting to a Bloomberg report that Saudi Arabia will ask for supply cuts at this week’s OPEC+ meeting. With month-end, we could see Equities underperform Bonds by as much as 50bps – 75bps given performance differentials. Today’s macro data focus is on housing price indices, consumer confidence, activity updates from Dallas/Richmond Feds, two Fed speakers, and the 7Y auction. 

In premarket trading, Zscaler shares fell 6.1% after the security software company affirmed a forecast for 2024 calculated billings that fell slightly short of estimates at the midpoint. ADRs of Chinese e-commerce firm PDD Holdings soared 17% in US premarket trading after posting earnings and revenue well above estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Affirm shares rose 3.1% after Jefferies upgraded the buy-now-pay-later company to hold from underperform, citing stabilizing credit performance and ongoing momentum in adoption of BNPL services.
• Boeing gained 2.1% as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the planemaker’s stock to outperform from sector perform. The broker said shares in the company are in the early stages of “a significant shift in sentiment” amid strong demand.
• Cool Co. dropped 9.1% as Pareto described the liquefied natural gas shipping company’s results as “soft.”
• Shopify shares dropped 2.7% in New York after the e-commerce company was downgraded to underweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which said the current shares hold an “untenable valuation.”
• SpringWorks Therapeutics shares rose 10% after the FDA approved nirogacestat, the biotech’s oral treatment for desmoid tumors.
• Crocs gains 2.4% after Raymond James upgraded the footwear brand to strong buy and placed the company on its current favorites list, replacing Lululemon.
• Edwards Lifesciences slips about 2% after Wolfe downgraded its rating, citing risk to the firm’s unit growth.

Expectations that rates have peaked and the economy will avoid recession have spurred stocks and government bonds this month. Now, Citigroup strategists – always several weeks behind the curve following the massive layoffs over there – say one of the best November rallies for the S&P 500 in a century is running out of steam and net positioning in the benchmark index is looking “slightly bearish” echoing what both Michael Hartnett and Scott Rubner already said previously.

Meanwhile, central bankers from Australia, England and Thailand warned that the monetary policy outlook remains uncertain. The ECB isn’t yet at a point where it should consider reducing borrowing costs, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said.

“It’s not surprising to see some money being taken off the table, particularly when the expectation is that the ECB will not cut interest rates until mid-2024 in spite of better than expected inflation data,” said Kumar Pandit, a money manager at Somerset Capital Management in London. The rally “may well be” over in the short term, he said.

Traders will be watching a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday and another batch of economic data are due this week, including the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation.

European stocks are on course to log back-to-back losses for the first time in three weeks. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.6% with consumer product, real estate and health care shares leading declines; energy and utilities are the best-performing sectors and some of the only risers. LVMH led a retreat in European luxury stocks as HSBC Holdings Plc cut its price targets across the sector. Dutch biotech Argenx sank as much as 17% after preliminary results suggested its only medicine failed in a trial.  Here are some of the biggest European movers on Tuesday:

• Rolls-Royce shares gain as much as 7.4%, rising to the highest levels since November 2019, after the British aero engine manufacturer presented fresh financial targets that analysts lauded as “strong,” particularly on free cash flow.
• EasyJet shares rise as much as 4.8%, before paring the gain to trade little changed, after the low-cost airline said it has a positive outlook for full-year 2024 despite some impact from war in the Middle East. Morgan Stanley says the outlook remains strong, while Bernstein noted some caution due to the conflict.
• Smurfit Kappa shares gain as much as 3.8% as Jefferies says readacross from Packaging Corp.’s price hike last night is positive for European containerboard and box makers, who could make an attempt of their own in 2024.
• Ebusco shares jump as much as 11% after the Dutch electric automobile firm said it has been selected as a supplier by Italian central purchasing organization Consip.
• Boozt shares gain as much as 6.8%, in a fifth day of gains, after the Swedish online retailer narrows its full-year guidance range toward the higher end based on strong sales during the Black Friday week.
• Julius Baer shares drop as much as 3.6%, declining for a seventh day, as Vontobel estimates the wealth manager will probably have to take an impairment charge amounting to 50% of its around CHF600m exposure to troubled real estate company Signa. Vontobel cut its price target on the stock to CHF50 from CHF55.
• LVMH shares decline as much as 3% as HSBC cuts its price targets across the luxury sector, saying that the industry isn’t recession-proof and stock momentum could remain “subdued” for another five to six months as investors focus on a “lackluster” first half of 2024.
• ABN Amro shares slip as much as 1.9% after Deutsche Bank on Monday cut the recommendation on the Dutch bank to hold, from buy, saying its net interest income (NII) and costs are deteriorating.
• Marlowe shares slump as much as 18.2% after the investment company delivers first-half results which Berenberg describes as “disappointing” because of a delay in cash improvement.
• Argenx shares tumble as much as 17%, the most on record, after the Belgian biotech firm said a study evaluating Vyvgart Hytrulo in adults with a rare bleeding disorder didn’t meet its primary endpoint.
• Ubisoft shares fall as much as 10% after the French video game maker announced placement of convertible bonds due 2031 for a nominal amount of €494.5 million. The reference share price of €27.35 is a 7% discount to the last close.
• Atos shares fall as much as 9.7% after the French tech firm said that it’s studying further initiatives — including raising funds via debt and equity capital markets — to address a capital increase plan and debt maturities in 2025.

Asian stocks gained as tech-heavy South Korean and Taiwanese markets rallied on the back of lower Treasury yields, with traders bracing for a key US inflation report later this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%, with tech giants TSMC and Samsung Electronics among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s gains. The dollar fell for a fourth day while two-year Treasuries extended a rally that began Monday, boding well for rate-sensitive tech shares. Japanese stocks declined as the yen extended gains. Key gauges fell in Hong Kong while Chinese equities extend declines in afternoon trading despite recent support pledges by the PBoC as a report also suggested that China’s property lifeline exposes banks to large losses and job reductions. Meituan was the biggest drag on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index as investors stayed cautious ahead of its quarterly results later in the day. The gauge dropped as much as 1.5% to its lowest since Nov. 13; it is on course for its third session of declines. China’s largest food delivery platform operator Meituan is the biggest loser on the index, falling as much as 7.3% to the lowest since May 2020. Japan’s Nikkei 225 failed to hold on to opening gains and was pressured as a firmer currency paved the way for profit-taking. ASX 200 was higher with early outperformance on softer yields and following a break above the 7,000 level although the index finished off intraday highs following a surprise contraction in Retail Sales data.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.2% to 1,235.03, its lowest since late August, and on track for its steepest monthly drop in a year.  The euro is flat, with little reaction to remarks by the ECB’s Nagel, who said it’s premature to even talk about rate cuts. USD/JPY dropped as much as 0.5% to 147.98 to take losses into a third day, pressured by month-end demand to sell dollars.

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with yields 1bp-3bp higher on the day, unwinding a portion of Monday’s rally. 10-year TSY yields are around 2bps cheaper on the day at 4.41%, with futures price just below Monday’s highs; bunds and gilts outperform by 1bp and 0.5bp in the sector while Italian bonds lag by 3bp. Auction cycle concludes with $39b 7-year note sale at 1pm, follows mixed 2- and 5-year auctions Monday. WI 7-year yield at ~4.5% is 46bp richer than result of October’s, which stopped 0.2bp through. In Europe, Italian bonds underperform core euro-zone after ECB’s Nagel said the central bank’s balance sheet must shrink significantly.

In commodities, oil prices advanced snapping three days of declines as the market weighed the possibility of deeper output cuts from OPEC+. WTI rose 1.2% to trade near $75.70. Elsewhere, gold was little changed, hovering near the highest level since May.

Bitcoin has been contained throughout the session thus far, in-fitting with the general tone; currently, pivoting USD 37k. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) expanded its cryptocurrency trading to retail investors in Hong Kong.

US session has a busy Fed speaker slate and 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time, as well as house-price and consumer confidence gauges.  

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for November, and the FHFA’s house price index for September. In Europe, there’s also the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Goolsbee and Waller, the ECB’s Nagel and Lane, and the BoE’s Haskel. Finally, there’s a 7yr US Treasury auction taking place.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,558.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 455.98
• MXAP up 0.2% to 161.47
• MXAPJ up 0.4% to 503.88
• Nikkei down 0.1% to 33,408.39
• Topix down 0.2% to 2,376.71
• Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 17,354.14
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,038.55
• Sensex up 0.2% to 66,096.01
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,015.22
• Kospi up 1.0% to 2,521.76
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.54%
• Euro little changed at $1.0951
• Brent Futures up 1.1% to $80.84/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,015.63
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.21

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• China’s central bank warns that credit growth will cool as the country transitions away from a model dependent on infrastructure and real estate investment. BBG
• BOJ sees pressure to tighten climb further after the Japanese weighted median inflation rate accelerated to +2.2% in Oct (up from +2% in Sept). RTRS
• Hawkish ECB commentary weighs on sentiment with Lagarde warning that the timeline for ending PEPP reinvestments could be accelerated while Nagel said rate hikes might not be over. FT
• BOE official pushes back against rising expectations for rate cuts, warning that policy will need to be restrictive for an extended period. RTRS
• Barclays considers a restructuring plan that would see it drop thousands of investment banking clients as the firm rushes to bolster profitability (Barclays considered an acquisition in asset mgmt. or wealth mgmt. but ultimately decided against it). FT
• AMZN officially surpasses UPS and FedEx as the biggest delivery business in the US, and the gap will only grow larger in the years ahead. WSJ
• The fed will not return to positive net income until 2025 and will not resume remitting profits to the Treasury until mid-2027. St. Louis Fed
• American shoppers spent $8.3 billion through 6 p.m. for Cyber Monday, according to Adobe, which expects as much as $12.4 billion in total. Despite the splash, US consumer confidence data, due later, is set to dip again this month. BBG
• Carlyle Group  is set to join the S&P MidCap 400 index, S&P Dow Jones Indices said late Monday. The change will force funds that track the index to buy Carlyle shares. The stock rose about 6% in offhours trading. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed amid the lower yield environment and after the lacklustre performance of US counterparts. ASX 200 was higher with early outperformance on softer yields and following a break above the 7,000 level although the index finished off intraday highs following a surprise contraction in Retail Sales data. Nikkei 225 fa led to hold on to opening gains and was pressured as a firmer currency paved the way for profit-taking. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged despite recent support pledges by the PBoC as a report also suggested that China’s property lifeline exposes banks to large losses and job reductions.

Top Asian News

• PBoC Governor Pan said China’s economy continued to gain momentum in recovery and reiterated that China’s economy is expected to achieve its GDP growth target for 2023, while he added that China’s CPI is gradually bottoming out and consumption’s contribution to the domestic economy is on the rise. Furthermore, Pan said they will continue to keep monetary policy accommodative and will make it easier for foreign financial institutions to do business in China, according to Reuters.
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is willing to build closer supply chain linkages with all countries, while it opposes any form of decoupling and cutting off of supply chains. Li added that China will continue to create an international and rule-of-law-based business environment, according to Reuters.
• China’s property lifeline reportedly exposes banks to large losses and job reductions, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%, continue to slip with modest underperformance in the CAC 40 -0.4%, hampered by Luxury names after LVMH price target reductions. European sectors are mostly in the red, with Consumer Products and Services at the foot of the sectors weighed by Luxury names. Energy in the green, with crude prices lifting off lows throughout the European session; Utilities helped by RWE plans to increase dividends by 5-10% each year until 2030. US Futures are all teetering around the unchanged mark with specifics light thus far ahead of several Fed members.

Top European News

• BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden said UK inflation is more homegrown and monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time to get inflation back to the 2% target, while he doesn’t see financial stability grounds for adjusting quantitative easing or the setting of the level of interest rates.
• ECB’s Nagel says rate hikes are not necessarily over, would have to hike again if inflation outlook worsened. Inflation outlook encouraging, but core shows dynamics continue to be strong. Premature to discuss rate cuts, prefer to err on the side of caution.
• German Chancellor Scholz says they will be able to end the energy price break at year-end given lower prices and gas storage levels. Working to make all decisions required for the 2024 budget as soon as possible. German States have the greatest interest in securing investments in the chip industry, climate-friendly steel and battery plants.
• In December, Greece will repay EUR 5.3bln of EZ bailout funds ahead of schedule, via Reuters citing Finance Ministry Officials; in 2024, considering another early repayment

FX

• DXY clings to 103.00 handle in the face of negative rebalancing signals on spot month end, but barely within a 103.07-32 range.
• Loonie underpinned by rebound in oil and straddling 1.3600 vs Greenback
• Euro continues to stall around 1.0960 Fib resistance against Dollar as hawkish ECB vibes vie with weak Eurozone M3 metrics.
• Yen extends recovery gains vs Buck to probe 148.00 before fading.
• Sterling retains 1.2600+ status ahead of comments from BoE hawk Haskel and Aussie extends beyond 0.6600 as RBA’s Bullock underlines upside inflation risks to outweigh retail sales miss.
• Kiwi cautious pre-RBNZ as NZD/USD retreats through 0.6100.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1132 vs exp. 7.1432 (prev. 7.1159).

Fixed Income

• Debt futures fade after extending recovery gains.
• Bunds down in sympathy with BTPs within 131.65-20 and 114.68-00 respective ranges.
• Gilts undermined by hefty tail on 30 year DMO sale between 96.47-95.89 parameters.
• T-note nearer 108-27 trough than 109-03+ peak ahead of 7 year auction and a slew of Fed speakers.
• UK sells GBP 2.75bln 3.75% 2053 Gilt: b/c 2.34x (prev. 2.60x), average yield 4.664% (prev. 4.926%) & tail 1.5bps (prev. 0.8bps)

Commodities

• Crude continues to extend gains, despite a lack of catalysts whilst geopolitics & OPEC remains in focus.
• Metals are flat/mixed in the absence of major catalysts, with Gold still holding onto yesterday’s gains and comfortably above the USD 2000/oz level.
• Energy Intel noted there is still no resolution regarding new OPEC+ production baselines and cuts, while it added that the meeting is still scheduled to take place virtually on Thursday but it understands that a further delay cannot be ruled out.
• OPEC to hold an online meeting at 10:00GMT/05:00EST on Thursday; 13:00GMT/08:00EST the JMMC will meet; 14:00GMT/09:00EST the full OPEC+ meeting will occur, via Reuters citing sources.

Geopolitics: Israel- Hamas

• Israel released 30 Palestinian children and three women under the truce agreement and it received a list of ten hostages to be released by Hamas on Tuesday, while it was separately reported that Israel approved a list of 50 female Palestinian prisoners for possible release if additional Israeli hostages are freed, according to Reuters.
• Israeli Defence Minister said when they return to fighting after the truce, the fighting will be stronger and will include all parts of the Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Hamas Leader Khalil Al-Hayya told Al Jazeera they hope they can extend the truce for a longer period, according to Al Jazeera.
• Al Jazeera reported via social media platform X that Israeli occupation forces raided Beitunia which is west of Ramallah.
• “Palestinian media: Israeli forces fire heavily east of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip”, according to Al Arabiya.
• US Secretary of State Blinken is to visit Israel, the West Bank and UAE later this week and will stress in meetings the need to sustain increased flow of humanitarian assistance to Gaza and secure the release of all hostages, according to a US official
• “Israeli forces fired a shell at a house in Tubas in the West Bank”, according to Al Arabiya; Subsequently, “Lebanese news agency: An Israeli shell landed near a border town in southern Lebanon“, according to AshaqNews
• Qatar Foreign Ministry says there have been “minimal breaches” of the Gaza truce, but they have not threatened the overall agreement
• CIA director Burns is to meet today in Doha with the Mossad director Barnea & Qatar’s PM to discuss a possible second extension of the pause in Gaza, via Axios; contingent on Hamas releasing more hostages.

Geopolitics: North-Korea

• North Korea said its spy satellite took photos of the White House, the Pentagon and a key US naval base, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 09:00: Sept. S&P/Case Shiller 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.80%, prior 1.01%
• 09:00: Sept. S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 2.57%
• 09:00: Sept. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 3.90%, prior 2.16%
• 10:00: Nov. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 101.0, prior 102.6
• 10:00: Nov. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 143.1
• 10:00: Nov. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 75.6
• 10:00: Nov. Richmond Fed Index, est. 1, prior 3
• 10:30: Nov. Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -18.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a very strong month so far, markets saw a slight risk-off tone over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.20%) losing ground after a run of four consecutive weekly gains. That was echoed across several asset classes, but with sovereign bonds rallying across the board as investors moved more into safe havens as the data was on the softer side, plus Treasury supply was digested successfully. This all helped push gold prices (+0.67%) up to a 6-month high as well .

There wasn’t an obvious catalyst for the softness in risk and the decent fall in yields, but some weak US data didn’t exactly help sentiment yesterday. For instance, new home sales were down to an annualised rate of 679k in October (vs. 721k expected), which came as high mortgage rates continued to dampen demand. That was beneath all 50 economist’s estimates in the Bloomberg survey, so it added to the narrative that the recent US data has shown signs of beginning to turn lower. Note that this data corresponded to peak mortgage rates. They have rallied a fair bit since so some caution is required. Half an hour later, we then got the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index, which fell to a 4-month low of -19.9 (vs. -16.0 expected) .

With that in mind, investors stuck to their view that the Fed and the ECB were both likely to cut in Q2, and sovereign bonds witnessed a decent rally on both sides of the Atlantic. For US Treasuries, that saw the 10yr yield fall -8.0bps to 4.387% (4.40% as I type this morning). There was a pair of US Treasury auctions yesterday with 5-year and 2-year notes being issued. The $54bn of 2-year notes saw softer demand than was expected, but yields still finished -6.0bps lower at 4.888%. The $55bn 5yr auction saw good demand with 5yr UST yields falling an additional -2bps around the auction, before continue to fall through the US afternoon to close -7.4bps lower overall. We have a 7yr auction today as the next stop for the (constant) UST supply train .

In Europe there were even larger yield declines for those on 10yr bunds (-9.5bps), OATs (-9.3bps) and BTPs (-11.4bps). As we discussed in the World Outlook our economists have downgraded German GDP to -0.2% in 2024. This would have likely been +0.3% without the Constitutional Court ruling a little less than two weeks ago. So this at the margin does mean that perhaps we will need looser policy sooner than we would have done.

On this theme, we did hear pushback from ECB President Lagarde, who was speaking before lawmakers at the European Parliament. She reiterated they weren’t thinking about cutting rates, saying that it was “not the time to start declaring victory”, and that they expected “that maintaining interest rates at current levels for a sufficiently long duration will make a substantial contribution to restoring price stability”. She also said that the question of PEPP reinvestments “will come probably for discussion and consideration within the Governing Council in the not-too-distant future”. The higher yields of October likely stopped this conversation then but with yields now lower the ECB might feel more comfortable to start thinking of an early exit to these PEPP reinvestments.

When it came to equities, the story was one of modest losses for the most part, with both the S&P 500 (-0.20%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.34%) losing ground. Energy stocks saw large declines as oil prices declined for a 4th consecutive day, with Brent crude down -0.74% to $79.98/bbl. Oil had initially been on track for larger losses, although there was a recovery after Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia was asking others in the OPEC+ group to reduce their quotas, although some others were resisting. Tech stocks also took a step back with the NASDAQ (-0.07%) unable to hold on to its initial modest gains.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (-0.60%) extending yesterday’s losses, and with the Nikkei also slipping (-0.36%) so far. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.69%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.10%) and the CSI (+0.03%) have held on to their gains. US futures are fairly flat so far in the session.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s retail sales unexpectedly declined -0.2% m/m in October (v/s +0.1% expected) as against an increase of +0.9% in the previous month hinting that RBA’s hikes are taking their toll on consumers.

In other data yesterday, there was some more positive data out of the UK, with the CBI’s latest distributive trades survey showing that a net -11% saw sales volumes decline in the year to November. Although still negative, that’s actually the best number since June, and follows the better-than-expected flash PMIs last week, as well as the rise in the GfK’s consumer confidence indicator. Incidentally, our World Outlook does not expect a recession in the UK, unlike in the Euro Area and the US .

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for November, and the FHFA’s house price index for September. In Europe, there’s also the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Goolsbee and Waller, the ECB’s Nagel and Lane, and the BoE’s Haskel. Finally, there’s a 7yr US Treasury auction taking place.

The latest Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey of over 600 professional and retail investors revealed more than half of them anticipate that the downturn in ‘green’ energy stocks will persist into next year, posing challenges for some investors who have been trying to catch the ‘falling knife.’  

The survey, conducted Nov. 13-24 globally among Bloomberg News users on the Terminal, asked a series of questions about the green energy industry. 

One of those questions asked Terminal users: With the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF down more than 30% this year and on track for its worst year since 2011. What do you think happens next?

Most respondents, 57% (or 353), expect the selloff to continue next year. And 43% (or 267) expect green stocks will find a near-term bottom, and now is the time to buy. 

The ownership portfolio of the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF reveals that the fund is heavily invested in solar, wind, and hydrogen stocks, including SolarEdge, First Solar, Sunrun, Orsted, and Plug Power, which have been clubbed like a baby seal this year. 

Waning demand and higher interest rates have been reasons for the green bubble’s epic bursting.
Take a look at iShares Global Clean Energy ETF versus the Nasdaq… Whoops! 

One of the ways the green bubble can avoid total extinction is for the Federal Reserve to reverse course on the interest rate hiking cycle. Swap traders believe this could occur as early as next summer. 

This is one bubble the Biden administration might want to save. Otherwise, the implosion of these companies could derail it from hitting carbon-free targets in the years ahead.  
 

Gasoline prices are on the way down, and we are seeing a lot of chatter from people who are convinced this is political.

After all, we are headed into an election year, and lower gasoline prices certainly help politicians get reelected.

But, neither President Biden (nor his actions) are not why prices are falling, and as the chart below shows, gasoline prices at the pump remain 20% above their 10-year-average for this time of year…

The underlying price of oil is the single largest factor that drives gasoline prices, but there is a seasonal factor behind the changes in gasoline prices.

In fact, as Robert Rapier explains below, via OilPrice.com, gasoline prices fall almost every year between August and November.

As someone whose job it once was to blend gasoline for ConocoPhillips, allow me to explain the reasons.

While many attribute these changes to potential manipulation by vested interests seeking electoral advantages, the actual explanation is two-fold.

Because gasoline evaporates, and given the contribution of gasoline vapors to smog, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) strategically regulates gasoline blends seasonally to minimize such emissions.

The EPA achieves this regulation through seasonal limits on something called the Reid vapor pressure (RVP). The RVP specification is temperature-dependent, because evaporation rates increase at higher temperatures. To lower those evaporation rates, the EPA requires lower RVP levels during the summer. While specific RVP limits vary by state, 7.8 pounds per square inch (psi) is a common limit in much of the U.S. during summer.

As September arrives, RVP specifications transition to cold weather blends with RVP limits as high as 15 psi in some locations. This transition significantly impacts gasoline production costs, specifically concerning the inclusion of butane.

Butane, with a high RVP of 52 psi, can be blended into gasoline at higher rates in the fall and winter blends, since the overall vapor pressure can be higher. Butane is cost-effective as it often trades at a $1/gallon discount to crude oil or gasoline. It also increases gasoline supplies by adding a generally abundant component to the gasoline pool.

In the summer, stringent RVP limits make blending significant amounts of butane impractical. However, as limits increase in the fall, the blend can contain more butane, reducing production costs and increasing supply.

The second major factor is that this seasonal shift occurs after the high-demand summer driving season, aligning increased supplies and reduced production costs with falling demand. This confluence almost always leads to a decline in gasoline prices during the fall, benefiting consumers.

There are occasional external factors like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or geopolitical events that can disrupt these seasonal trends. We saw an economic rebound from the pandemic in 2019 that disrupted the normal pattern, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was one of the factors that helped disrupt the pattern that year.

But this year’s decline is typical of the normal pattern of falling gasoline prices in the fall — regardless of whether it is an election year.

However, this perfect storm comes to an end in spring when RVP specifications are stepped back down in May, increasing costs and reducing supplies in time for the summer driving season.

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecast in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window.

Again, remember von Mises words: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”

History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. 

So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth.

POLITICIANS LIE WITHOUT FAIL

History never lies but politicians do without fail. In a fake system based on false values, lying is considered to be an essential part of political survival. 

Let’s just look at Nixons ignorant and irresponsible statements of August 15, 1971 when he took away the gold backing of the dollar and thus all currencies. 

Later on we will show how clearsighted the Chinese leaders were about the destiny of the US and its economy.  

So there we have tricky Dick’s lies. 

• The suspension of the convertibility of the dollar in 1971 is still in effect 52 years later.

• As the dollar has declined by almost 99% since 1971, the “strength of the economy” is also declining fast although using fiat money as the measure hides the truth.

• And now to the last lie: “Your dollar will be worth as much tomorrow”. Yes, you are almost right Dick!  It is still worth today a whole 1% of the value when you closed the gold window. 

The political system is clearly a farce. You have to lie to be elected and you have to lie to stay in power. That is what the gullible voters expect. The sad result is that they will always be cheated.

CHINA FORECAST THE CONSEQUENCES ALREADY IN 1971

So in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window, China in its official news media the People’s Daily made the statements below:

Clearly the Chinese understood the consequences of the disastrous US decision which would destroy the Western currency system as they said:

• Seriousness of the US economic crisis and decay and decline of the capitalist system

• Mark the collapse of the monetary system with the US dollar as its prop

• Nixon’s policy cannot extricate the US from financial and economic crisis

I am quite certain that the US administration at the time ridiculed China’s official statement. As most Western governments, they showed their arrogance and complete ignorance of history. 

How right the Chinese were. 

But the road to perdition is not immediate and we have seen over 50 years the clear “decline of the capitalist system”. The end of the current system is unlikely to be far away.

Interestingly it seems that a Communist non-democratic system is much more clairvoyant than a so called Western democracy. There is clearly an advantage not always having to buy votes.

IRRELEVANT WHICH CURRENCY WINS THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM

As the whole currency system is about to implode,  it is in my view totally irrelevant where the US dollar is heading short term measured against other fiat currencies. 

The dilemma is that most “experts” use the Dollar Index (DXY) as the measure of the dollar’s strength or weakness.  This is like climbing the ladder of success only to find out that the ladder is leaning against the wrong building. 

To measure the dollar against its partners in crime (the other fiat currencies) misses the point as they are all on the way to perdition.

So the dollar index measures the dollar against six fiat currencies: Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Kroner and Swiss Franc. The Chinese Yuan shines in its absence even though China is the second biggest economy in the world. 

But here is the crux. The dollar is in a race to the bottom with 6 other currencies. 

Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 all 7 currencies, including the US dollar, have declined 97-99% in real terms. 

Real terms means constant purchasing power. 

And the only money which has maintained constant purchasing power for over 5,000 years is of course gold.

So let’s make it clear – the only money which has survived in history is GOLD! 

All other currencies have without fail gone to ZERO and that without exception. 

Voltaire said it already in 1729:

PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO

And that has been the destiny of every currency throughout history. 

Every single currency has without fail gone to ZERO. And this is where the dollar and its lackeys are heading. 

To debate if a currency, which has fallen 98.2% in the last 52 years, is going to strengthen or weaken in the next year or two is really missing the point. 

It is virtually 100% certain that the dollar and all fiat money will complete the cycle (which started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed) and fall the remaining 1-3% to ZERO.

But we must remember that the final fall involves a 100% loss of value from today. 

BRENT JOHNSON & MATT PIEPENBURG DEBATE THE DOLLAR

So to debate whether the dollar index which today is 103, will reach 150 first as my good friend Brent Johnson argues in his Dollar Milk Shake Theory or that it will fall from here as my colleague Matt Piepenburg contends, really misses the point. 

There is no prize for coming first to the bottom. The dollar is down almost 99% in real terms since 1971. So it has a bit over 1% to fall to reach ZERO. 

And history tells us that the final fall is INEVITABLE. 

So why worry if the Dollar or the Euro becomes worthless first? It really is a mute point. 

Brent Johnson and Matt Piepenburg recently had a debate on Adam Taggart’s new platform “Thoughtful Money”. Adam is an outstanding host with great speakers and both Brent and Matt were superb in their presentation of the arguments for or against the dollar. But even though they both like and understand gold, they got a bit too caught up in the dollar up or down debate rather than focusing on the only money which has survived in history. Still, I know that they both appreciate that gold is the ultimate money. 

NOT ALL CURRENCIES ARE BAD

The world’s reserve currency has had a sad performance based on lies, poor real growth, all due to a mismanaged economy based on debt and printed money. 

So although most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms since 1971 there are shining exceptions. 

When the gold window was closed in 1971 I was working in a Swiss bank in Geneva. At the time, one dollar cost Swiss Franc 4.30. Today, 52 years later, one dollar costs Swiss Franc 0.88! 

This means that the dollar has declined 80% against the Swiss Franc since 1971.

So a country like Switzerland with virtually no deficits and a very low debt to GDP proves that a well managed economy with very low inflation doesn’t destroy its currency like most irresponsible governments. 

The Swiss system of direct democracy and people power is totally unique and gives the people the right to have a referendum on almost any issue they choose. 

This makes the people much more responsible in their choices as a winning vote on any issue becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament. Only a new referendum can change such a decision. 

THE US BANANA REPUBLIC

Swiss Debt to GDP is around 40%. This was the level of US debt back in 1971 before the gold window was closed. 

As the graph below shows, US debt to GDP is now 132%. In 2000 it was 55%. 

132% debt to GDP is the level of a Banana Republic which is frantically trying to survive by printing and borrowing ever increasing amounts of worthless fiat money.  

So debt to GDP is now reaching the exponential phase. I have explained the final phases of exponential moves in many articles like here.

Since there is no intent or possibility to reduce the US deficit, the likely deficit for next fiscal year is most probably in excess of $2 trillion and that is before any bad news like higher inflation, higher interest rates, bank failures, more war, more QE etc. 

As I discussed in a recent article,“THE CYCLE OF EVIL”, the world is today facing unprecedented risks of a magnitude never before seen in history. 

THE TIME TO PRESERVE WEALTH IS NOW

The combination of geopolitical and financial risk makes wealth preservation an absolute necessity. 

Most asset markets look extremely vulnerable be it stocks bond or property. Few investors understand that current asset prices are in cloud cuckoo land as a result of an unprecedented credit expansion. 

Personally I think we are now at a point when asset markets could tank. 

At the same time gold looks ready to soon break out of its consolidation since 2020. 

Once gold leaves the $2,000 level behind, the move is likely to be fast. 

Silver will most probably move twice as fast as gold.

But this is not a question of price and speculation. No, it is all about risk and wealth preservation. 

So short term timing is irrelevant. The next few years will be about financial survival. 

Sadly most investors will buy the dips in conventional asset markets like stocks and lose most of their gains in the last few decades. 

As gold is insurance against a rotten financial system it must be acquired and owned outside a fragile banking system which is unlikely to survive in its present form. 

Here are a few of the SINE QUA NON (indispensable conditions) for gold ownership:

• Gold must be held in physical form. No funds, ETFs or bank held gold. 

• The investor must have direct access to his own gold bars/coins. 

• Any counterparty must be eliminated whenever possible. 

• Gold must be stored in ultra safe vaults outside the banking system. 

• Gold should not be stored in a major city.

• Gold must be insured.

• Only gold that you are prepared to lose should be stored at home. 

• Gold should be stored outside your country of residence and in a gold friendly jurisdiction.

• The country where the gold is stored must have a long history of democracy, political stability and peace.  

As we are approaching one of the most precarious times in history both financially, socially, politically and geopolitically, Wealth Preservation in the form of gold and some silver will make the difference between financial survival or ruin.

As always, most important in life is looking after family and helping friends.  

And remember that in the difficult times ahead there are many wonderful things that are free like nature, books, music, sports etc.