Authored by Amir Taheri via The Gatestone Institute,

“Paris could become a battlefield!”

This was how commentators speculated about a “solidarity with Palestine” demonstration that the police had authorized for last Saturday. The concern was not groundless.

A few days before, a Harris opinion poll had shown that 82 percent of the French feared a wave of terrorism in France and 72 percent believed that something like the 7 October attack by Hamas would happen in Paris.

“People are right to have concerns,” says Brice Hortefeux, a former Minister of the Interior.

In the past decade, France has been hit by over 400 terrorist attacks or attempts, almost all related to the Middle East or what is shorthanded as “Islamic World.” The same concern was expressed in numerous editorials, reminding people that as home to Europe’s largest Jewish community, some 500,000, and highest number of Muslims, around 7 million, France was already “part of the Middle East.”

A number of small but violent demonstrations in Paris and other cities in the aftermath of October 7, all banned by the police, raised the level of concern.

On the eve of the Saturday demo, the police announced it would field 2,000 armed personnel, backed by drones and helicopters and plainclothes agents, to deal with “any eventuality.” At the same time, the political parties and trade unions that sponsored the demo said their “security units”, some 1,000 tough guys and gals, would also be present.

As an added precaution, police refused to let the march pass by Marais, a Paris district with a substantial number of Jewish homes and businesses.

The demo was planned against a background of rising anti-Jewish acts, over 900 instances since October 7, according to the Interior Ministry. So, you can imagine that it was with some trepidation that I decided to come out of retirement as a reporter and cover the dicey demo. And then, what a surprise!

Although it looked like scores of demos I had seen in Paris since my student days in the 1960s this was a fairly small affair. According to police, some 19,000 people, a quarter of them security agents and/or reporters, participated. (As usual, organizers, including the Socialist Party, multiplied the figure by three.)

The three-kilometer distance between Place de la République and Place de la Nation did not turn into a battlefield.

At some points, the demo even looked like a city walk past shops that had closed their shutters out of fear. The Boulevard Voltaire reminded us of a short story by the Swiss philosopher in which a bug, annoyed by the tick-tock of a wall clock, jumps into it in the hope of stopping it, but is killed. As far as we could make out, a majority of marchers were young.

A few looked grim and angry but many had a bon enfant demeanor, exchanging jokes and laughing with one another. Apart from a French-Algerian lady who seemed angry enough to break a shop window, there was no sign of anyone wishing to get dramatic.

Paris demos have a template provided by activists who attend each other’s events.

These include anarchists, anti-Turkish Kurdish groups, LGBQ+, the People’s Mujahedin, “Stop-Oil” and other “green” militants, nostalgics of the Soviet Union, dyed-in-wool anti-Americans, do-gooders ready to march for any cause, and looters from the suburbs.

In Saturday’s demo, however, such veteran protesters had a low profile.

A few people carried banners of “Queers for Palestine”, “Black Lives Matter” and “Biden Accomplice in Crime.”

A band of neo-Nazis were among the 1,300 individuals that police said were prevented from joining the demo from the start.

Throughout the demo, there was little mention of Hamas. A trio of Khomeinists, who said they had come from Belgium with a portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a Hezbollah flag, tried the slogan “Hamas shall vanquish” but were quickly silenced by hostile glances.

The fusion of Hamas and “The Palestinian cause” had caused confusion as the whole show was built around “Palestine” as leitmotiv.

The one-minute silence was for “Palestinian victims” with the main slogan: “Free Palestine!”. The slogan “Free Gaza” had an ironic ambiguity as the enclave has been ruled by Hamas for 15 year. The slogan “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” was chanted by a few marchers, echoing “Juden Raus!” in 1930s Germany, but didn’t quite catch on. None of the marchers we talked to expressed support for Hamas.

“We are here in solidarity with the Palestinian people,” claimed Hervé, a university student from Nanterre.

Dominique, a shop worker, claimed she came because she couldn’t see “children of Palestine dying.”

Another marcher, Leila Ghuraibi, said “Genocide must stop” but wasn’t prepared to justify the massacre of Jews by Hamas.

A poll for the daily Le Figaro shows that 37 percent of the French still have sympathy for Israel, while Palestine gets 20 percent and Hamas 5 percent.

“Hamas doesn’t represent Palestinians,” said Laurent, a restaurant worker, echoing a comment by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. “Palestinians don’t behave like that.”

“Hamas has betrayed the Palestinian people,” says philosopher Michel Onfray.

However, the march was also bad news for Israel. This crowd included ordinary French citizens who could not be written off as anti-Semite weirdos.

No doubt anti-Semitic sentiments have deep roots in France, as in most Western countries. However, Israeli leaders need to ask how Israel, a victim on October 7, was cast as an oppressor two days later.

Those I talked to in the demo seemed as if they had forgotten October 7, reminding me of Isaac Bashevis Singer’s phrase “What a miser is a human memory!” For decades, with the exception of The Netherlands, France was the most pro-Israel nation in Europe and its chief source of weapons. It helped Israel build its nuclear capabilities. Whenever Israel was attacked, French intellectuals and celebrities mobilized to show support through public meetings and full-page ads in newspapers.

This time, however, the only expression of solidarity came from a few, mostly of Jewish background. There was a time when Israel was the darling of the left. Now, however, only Fabien Roussel, leader of the Communist Party, condemns the October 7 massacre. In the Saturday demo, there was no mention of the nearly 250 Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The so-called elites have adopted a one-way indignation posture against Israel.

Yet, casual talk at the bronze counter shows that Hamas has done much damage to the “Palestinian cause” while Benjamin Netanyahu’s belligerent rhetoric has diverted attention from the price Israel paid on October 7. However, in France at least, as far as we could make out, the battle for public opinion is far from settled.

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The spectacular “success” of Kiev’s counter-offensive, which echoed throughout the geopolitical galaxy, has predictably engendered what everyone with a brain was expecting: a dogfight…

Enter the Zelensky-Zaluzhny Show – especially after the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) admitted on the record that the war has “reached a stalemate” – code for “we’re deeply in trouble”. He also referred to “positional defense” – code for “we’re gonna keep losing more and more territory.”

The dogfight comes complete with Mafioso overtones, as in 39-year-old Zaluzhny assistant Gennady Chistyakov “accidentally” detonating a grenade received as a gift, seriously injuring his daughter and duly blowing himself up.

This might be seen at face value as yet another wacky Pulp Fiction-style sketch involving the top dogs (with no Winston Wolf  to “solve problems”). But it does carry an ominous message to Zaluzhny: once again, Mafia-style, from now on he’d better beware of friends bearing gifts.

As for the “counter-offensive”, the file, for all practical purposes, seems to be closed. There won’t be another one – because there are no more weapons, assets or troops to carry it, except the odd Ukrainian elderly citizens and unsuspecting housewives chased by the “security services” as they exit the supermarket.

A moral-psychological debacle

That brings us to yet another snapshot of what’s really happening on the frontlines.

The attached document, fully verified for authenticity, is a mid-October report to the Commander of the 10th Army Corps of the AFU.

The report states that the 116th separate mechanized brigade is “incapable of conducting offensive operations because of high losses and high numbers of soldiers that need psychological and medical assistance.”

The 116th brigade has been deeply involved in military operations in the Zaporozhye region for 5 months already. For 3 months it had been part of the 10th Army Corps, “Tavriya”.

The report details that the brigade’s losses are 94 soldiers dead; 1122 wounded; and 95 missing. That corresponds to 25% of the total number of personnel.

When it comes to the moral-psychological front, at least 153 soldiers are deemed in need of immediate psychological rehabilitation.

This brigade is a quite significant unit; what’s implied is that a moral-psychological debacle is now inbuilt as a System Error at the heart of the Ukrainian military. Consequences, short and middle term, will be dire.

All that is happening while the flow of foreign mercenaries to the AFU is drying up. No wonder: enter the Perfect Storm of brigades being thoroughly decimated; unspeakable levels of corruption; and better career opportunities in the rekindled Forever War in Israel/Palestine.

Civilians in Kharkov, for instance, confirm that foreign mercenaries speaking Polish or English are now “almost invisible”.

None of the above means that things from now on will be a cakewalk for Russia. For instance, the Russian Army still has not been able to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Dnieper in Kherson.

Further on down the road, it will be increasingly trickier to expel the Ukrainians from the eastern margin of the Dnieper.

Russian military media, at the highest level, does its best to sharply focus on serious instances of ineptitude by the Russian Army. That’s their civic duty – and involves creating a groundswell of public opinion, forcing the Russian Army to correct its mistakes and most of all refrain from underestimating the enemy.

After all, this is far from over – no matter the dogfight now raging in the corridors of power in Kiev.

There was good news for fans of weight loss drugs this weekend, when Novo Nordisk unveiled details from a closely watched study that supports the use of Wegovy, its blockbuster weight-loss drug, to cut the risk of death by 18% in a trial that the Danish pharmaceutical company hopes will convince more health systems and insurers to pay for the treatment.

Novo Nordisk on Saturday said the heart protective benefits of its wildly popular Wegovy obesity treatment are due to more than weight loss alone, according to new data presented at a major medical meeting on Saturday. Early data from the Danish drugmaker’s Select trial released in August demonstrated that Wegovy, which has been shown to help patients lose an average of 15% of their weight, also reduced incidence of heart attack, stroke or death from heart disease by 20%.

The full results from the study, presented at the American Heart Association annual scientific meeting in Philadelphia in front of a standing room only crowd and published in the New England Journal of Medicine, suggest the drug has other beneficial effects beyond the known health benefits from losing weight.

The heart risk difference between patients who received Wegovy, known chemically as semaglutide, and those on placebo began to appear almost immediately after starting treatment, researchers said.

In the study of overweight and obese patients based on body mass index who had preexisting heart disease but not diabetes, Wegovy reduced the risk of non-fatal heart attack by 28%, non-fatal stroke by 7% and death from cardiovascular causes death by 15% compared to a placebo (though the numbers did not quite meet the bar for statistical significance).

According to Novo, which of course is extremely incentivized to present the drug in the most favorable light so it can force insurance companies to cover the ~$1000/month drug, given that patients had not started losing weight when the cardiovascular benefits first appeared suggests the heart protection was not purely the result of weight loss. The trial also showed a 73% reduction in progression to diabetes and a 22% reduction of kidney disease, both of which significantly add to cost effectiveness of Wegovy treatment, write JPMorgan analysts including Richard Vosser in a note.

Still, the result is hardly a shock: in August, initial data from the Select trial sent shares in Novo Nordisk up as much as 16%, as investors became excited that the results could win over any health systems and insurers reluctant to cover the new class of weight-loss drugs (Wegovy has a US list price of more than $1,300 a month). It begs the question: how much of the good news has already been priced in.

Dr Chad Weldy, a cardiologist at Stanford University, said on the sidelines of the conference that it was important to note that the trial did not study how semaglutide might stop heart disease from happening and only looked at how to stop it from getting worse.

Despite that, the size of the patient population covered by this trial should make doctors think about the sorts of patients who should be prescribed Wegovy based on the data.

“Anyone who has had a heart attack or obstructive coronary disease and has a body mass index of more than 27 fits in with this study, which is a very large patient population,” he said, which of course makes sense: after all GLP-1 drugs, extremely expensive as they may be and requiring a $1000 outlay every month to keep the weigh loss results, do miracles in muting appetite and slashing excess weight.

Dr Bruno Halpern, head of the obesity center at Hospital 9 de Julho in São Paulo, Brazil, also said at the conference that Wegovy should now be a frontline treatment for heart disease. 

The study researchers said that while understanding of the mechanisms of the cardiovascular protection from semaglutide remain speculative, there was a consistent effect on associated risk factors that support the idea that multiple pathways are behind the drug’s clinical benefit.

Ironically, the associated risk factors – which include inflammation, blood pressure and blood sugar control, all of which can impact heart health – can potentially be just as bad if not worse, however in the end of the day, it’s all about how the trial was structured.

John Deanfield, one of the study’s authors and cardiology professor at University College London, said at the medical meeting that the trial data would spur a debate over where Wegovy fits into doctors’ treatments.

“When do we start these drugs in our patients? How do we stop them? How much weight do we want them to lose to get the benefit?” he said.

Patients on Wegovy experienced decreases in C-reactive proteins, an indication of inflammation, similar to those reported with cholesterol lowering statins, which are known to significantly lower heart risks, researchers reported.

“The cardiovascular benefit (of Wegovy) is a combination of many factors, but I would call out glycemic (blood sugar) control, weight loss and inflammation,” Martin Lange, Novo Nordisk’s head of development, said in an interview.

It was not all roses: in the 17,604-patient trial with a mean duration of 33 months, almost 1,500 of those taking Wegovy discontinued treatment due to adverse side effects, mostly gastrointestinal disorders like nausea and vomiting, compared to 718 patients in the placebo group, according to the study.

Though the trial was not conducted to test weight loss, participants lost an average of nearly 10% of their total body weight. Novo said patients in the heart study were not required to track diet and exercise as they are in obesity trials.

The study showed Wegovy to be safe and well-tolerated in line with previous semaglutide trials, Novo said. It was unclear whether the results could be applied to all GLP1-class drugs or were specific to semaglutide, Barclays analyst Emily Field said in an interview.

Lange said he expected the company’s application to have Wegovy’s label updated to include the heart benefits to be approved in the U.S. in the first half of next year and in the EU in the second half. Drug regulators can update the information on medicine labels to include new data or reflect new indications for use after initial approval.

U.S. and UK drug regulators approved Eli Lilly’s rival weight-loss treatment on Wednesday, which had previously been approved and marketed as Mounjaro for diabetes.

Yet what should have been a strong week for GLP-1 and health loss drugs, as well as the healthcare sector in general, was anything but. The Healthcare sector was hammered in a tumultuous week, with underperformance leading the sector back to YTD lows in terms of relative performance vs. the market (XLV vs. SPY). At the sector level, the tail end of the 3Q earnings season has continued to skew towards near-term uncertainty + persisting headwinds into ’24 – with particular focus around updates from the Life Sciences Tools and Medtech companies through the week. Updates from biopharma were more mixed, with several notable setbacks (VTYX, AMLX, NBIX, etc) partly balanced by BMRN (news of activism) and underscored by LLY’s highly anticipated obesity approval for their GLP-1.

Meanwhile, a violent sell-off in Large Biopharma on Thursday am, that quickly spread to other subsectors (XLV’s worst 1D performance YTD) as well as Novo Nordisk itself, drove a scramble by investors to identify the driver of the weakness…  without a clear smoking gun beyond the culmination of recent negative news cycle and potential angst ahead of the SELECT trial, whose favorable outcome was greatly anticipated, as it was the catalyst that initially sparked the latest frenzy around this drug class in early August.

As Goldman concludes, debates are high ahead of this update – with potential for far reaching implications + stock moves this coming Monday – where there continues to be focus on the GLP-1 At-Risk cohort.

Authored by Bernie Marcus, co-founder of Home Depot, via RealClear Wire,

I am 94 years old and like many of you, I am exhausted by politics and saddened by what I see happening to America. I had hoped it was time for me to move to the sidelines and let younger generations continue the fight to preserve America’s founding freedoms and values. But, like so many of us, I realized that I could not let myself walk away; the stakes are just too high.

We cannot let the America we see today be what we leave to our children and grandchildren. Many of our once-great cities have devolved into lawlessness with random violent attacks on innocent people, rampant looting, and large-scale homeless encampments. There are rarely consequences for the wrongdoers because George Soros-elected prosecutors across America refuse to prosecute them.

Moreover, our southern border is unprotected, and millions of people we know nothing about pour into our nation to receive care and benefits that we cannot afford to provide to our struggling military veterans. Worse, many of the border crossers may be gang members who commit violent crimes here. Schoolchildren across America cannot read, write, or do basic math, while our educational leaders tell us that they know better than parents how to raise our children. Working men and women are struggling to provide for their families and must raid their retirement funds just to feed, clothe, and take care of their children. These are just a few of the problems America is facing after three years of bad government policies. They cannot be our legacy.

This should not be a partisan issue. This should be an issue for all Americans – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents – that I hope to reach with this op-ed. You enjoy the freedoms and values on which the nation was founded. Sadly, I see these freedoms and values being eroded today as government gets bigger and weaponized against its political opponents.

I wrote this op-ed because of my love for America, not for any financial gain or advantage. I have been retired for 30 years and spend my time engaged in philanthropic causes, with which I have committed to share 90% of my net worth. I was born here and can give testimony about The American Dream. I lost my job and was broke when I was 48 years old. A dear friend of mine suggested that my misfortune presented a great opportunity to build a small business based upon an idea I had shared with him. Only in America, the land of opportunity, could being without a job and broke be a great opportunity. In 1978, my partners and I built four hardware stores, and this small business grew and is known as The Home Depot. We could only have done this in America because of America’s system of free enterprise and pro-jobs growth government policies. The state of America today, especially record inflation, government over-regulation, and the problems of the last three years, would prevent my partners and I from succeeding as we have.

Part of our legacy must be passing on to future generations of Americans our founding freedoms and values, including The American Dream. We must change the current trajectory of the nation and solve the problems created in the last three years. We must also reject calls from some politicians to replace our free market system with big government socialism. Most of them seem to have never had a job outside of government. All they know is making government bigger and more intrusive in the lives of its citizens.       

I wrote above that I wanted to sit on the sidelines of politics, but the stakes were too high for me just to walk away. The stakes are America’s path forward. Do we want to continue the perilous trajectory we are now on? I do not because it would be disastrous for all Americans except the political elite.

For Democrats, the choice is simple. If you feel that you are better off now than you were three years ago, you should vote for Joe Biden or whoever is the Democrat candidate. For Republicans, the choice is also simple.  Let’s face it: Donald Trump is going to win the nomination. You should be doing all you can to ensure his winning the general election.

I understand the frustration of some of my Republican friends who do not like or are offended by things Donald Trump does and says. I, too, have been frustrated at times, but we cannot let his brash style be the reason we walk away from his otherwise excellent stewardship of the United States during his first term in office. Now is the time for unity to save The American Dream for future generations. 

For these reasons, I endorse Donald J. Trump as the nominee of the Republican Party and as our next President. I endorse him not only because he has the best chance of winning the general election but because he is the best person to take on and dismantle the administrative state that is strangling America. The new war in the Middle East will present great challenges for the free world for some time, especially in keeping other terrorist groups or nations out of the conflict. This will require a president with the judgment, strength, decisiveness, and courage that Donald Trump displayed in his first term when he ordered the strike that killed the Iranian terrorist Gen. Qasem Soleimani and dissuaded Russia from invading Ukraine. Many, including myself, believe that Hamas would not have unleashed its barbarism and cruelty on Israel if Donald Trump was our president today. The reason is America’s enemies respect and, more importantly, fear Donald Trump’s judgment, strength, decisiveness, and courage. It is critical that America’s next leader have these attributes in the face of Hamas murdering innocent babies, old people, including Holocaust survivors, entire families; burning alive innocent people; raping women and young girls; and other unspeakable acts.

I urge my fellow Democrats, Republicans, and Independents to put their love for America above all else. I urge the Republican National Committee to end the Republican debates that only benefit ad makers and political consultants. They are unproductive and embarrassing.

Could there be controversy brewing underneath the surface at the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department?

Sadly, this is the question any reasonable person is forced to ask themselves after four current and former Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department employees committed suicide over a 24 hour span, according to a new report from the LA Times.

Sheriff Robert Luna urged his deputies to check on the health of their co-workers and friends, stating: “We are stunned to learn of these deaths, and it has sent shock waves of emotions throughout the department as we try and cope with the loss of not just one, but four beloved active and retired members of our department family.”

“During trying times like these it’s important for personnel regardless of rank or position to check on the well-being of other colleagues and friends,” he added.

He also claimed the department was “urgently exploring avenues to reduce work stress factors to support our employees’ work and personal lives.”

Department sources, preferring anonymity due to the ongoing probe, indicated no connection or foul play in the recent deaths, including that of former and current employees, with three suicides occurring in a day.

Cmdr. Darren Harris, notable for his 25-year media presence and a key department spokesperson, was among the deceased, found in his Santa Clarita home from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot. Harris’ career included roles in media relations, Transit Services Bureau, and leading the Santa Clarita station. His death, while not officially confirmed, was disclosed by sources to The Times.

The LA Times also reported that on Monday, retired sergeant Greg Hovland was found dead at his Quartz Hill home. This was followed by another employee’s death in Stevenson Ranch after sunset, and a fourth suicide that occurred Tuesday morning at a Pomona hospital.

These incidents highlight the growing concern of law enforcement suicides in Los Angeles and nationally, where studies show officers face higher suicide risks than the general population, often linked to job stress and public scrutiny.

 The department is offering counseling and support through its Psychological Services Bureau and Peer Support Program, as stated by Luna. Additionally, four other Sheriff’s Department employees have died by suicide this year, confirmed by spokesperson Nicole Nishida.

By Charlie Zhu and Helen Sun, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and strategists

1. Fresh signs of official support for debt-laden property firms emerged, triggering a relief rally in developers’ dollar bonds. China Vanke, a major developer recently rattled by repayment worries, received unusually strong support from officials in its hometown of Shenzhen last Monday.

Then came a report by local media Cailian on a meeting among the central bank, other regulators and top builders including Vanke, Longfor, and Gemdale. The first two builders’ dollar notes jumped on the news.

Market confidence in developer bonds now comes from government support – similar to those of local government financing vehicles, Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities, wrote in a note. Although it takes time for the property sector to recover, vulture investors may already see value in some securities, he added.

In a contrasting example, Country Garden Holdings’ shares plunged nearly 10% Thursday after Ping An Insurance Group denied a Reuters report that authorities asked the insurer to buy the embattled developer. Ping An itself also suffered a $5.5 billion stock selloff, indicating only the state, rather than any private-sector firm, has the capacity to bail out a company of Country Garden’s size.

2. The People’s Bank of China also has debt-laden regions on its mind. Governor Pan Gongsheng pledged to provide emergency funding to heavily indebted local governments as needed, showing a sense of urgency on preventing repayment risks at regional authorities from derailing a patchy economic recovery.

In another sign that Beijing is tightening scrutiny of the issue, the Ministry of Finance listed eight cases of irregularities committed by local governments to build up hidden debt. The inclusion of financial institutions in the penalties issued by the ministry shows debt control will be a more comprehensive effort involving both creditors and debtors, Yang Yewei, analyst at Guosheng Securities, wrote in a note.

Out of some 1.3 trillion yuan ($172 billion) of refinancing bonds sold by provincial authorities over the past month or so, indebted regions including Guizhou, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia ranked as the top issuers, according to data compiled by GF Securities.

3. Global investors turned more optimistic about Chinese assets. JPMorgan’s chief Asia & China equity strategist Wendy Liu said the bank sees increasing likelihood of a technical rebound in the country’s stock market toward the end of the year, citing improvement in risk factors from geopolitics to long-term structural growth.

Franklin Templeton Investments President Jenny Johnson said it’s time to “wade back into China” as Chinese assets are trading cheaply. Meantime, Citadel founder Ken Griffin said global investors have to “be watching and investing” in China to tap into innovation and growth in the region.

US-China relations though may still be a challenge. In a sign of how rocky the bilateral ties can be, Beijing accused Washington of discrediting China’s business environment, just when China booked more than 1 million tons of US soybeans in a gesture of goodwill ahead of this week’s summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden.

Australian Federal Police are investigating a cybersecurity incident that has paralyzed Australia’s second-largest port operator, which manages container terminals in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Fremantle. 

DP World Australia is responsible for 40% of Australia’s maritime freight and shuttered operations on Friday after a cybersecurity incident. 

“The company, in collaboration with cybersecurity experts, has worked tirelessly, making significant progress in re-establishing landside freight operations at its ports,” DP World Australia said in a statement. 

Bloomberg reported Sunday that DP World Australia has made “significant progress” after the cybersecurity incident. Still, the port operator’s main systems are down, preventing trucks from picking up or dropping off containers. However, vessels can still load and unload containers at the terminals. 

On Saturday, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil posted on X that the “cyber incident at DP World is serious and ongoing.” 

The cyber incident at DP World is serious and ongoing.

DP World manages almost 40% of the goods flowing in and out of our country, and this incident is affecting the ports of Melbourne, Fremantle, Botany and Brisbane.

— Clare O’Neil MP (@ClareONeilMP) November 12, 2023

On Sunday, National Cyber Security Coordinator, Air Marshal Darren Goldie, said the port operator is closely working with the government to resolve a “nationally significant cyber incident.” 

The Australian Government continues to work with DP World Australia to resolve a nationally significant cyber incident that has affected operations at a number of ports around the country.

— National Cyber Security Coordinator (@AUCyberSecCoord) November 12, 2023

“DP World today advised the Australian Government that the time frame for interruptions to continue is likely to be a number of days, rather than weeks,” Goldie said.

Here’s more from the official:

Today (Sunday 12 November 2023), I again convened the National Coordination Mechanism to bring together government agencies and the maritime and logistics sectors as part of the response to the incident. This followed earlier technical and Ministerial briefings with the company.

DP World’s IT system remains disconnected from the internet, significantly impacting their operations in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle. Our priority remains assisting DP World to restore their systems, which will allow cargo operations to recommence.

DP World today advised the Australian Government that the timeframe for interruptions to continue is likely to be a number of days, rather than weeks.

They also advised that despite the disruption, they are able to access sensitive freight at the ports if necessary – for example, in a medical emergency.

We are continuing to develop our understanding of the flow on impacts to Australia’s logistics system.

The National Emergency Management Agency, the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts and the Office of Supply Chain Resilience in the Department of Industry, Science and Resources will work with DP World to ensure that government and industry stakeholders have appropriate situational awareness necessary to support the management of any disruption to Australia’s supply chains.

While I understand there is interest in determining who may be responsible for the cyber incident, our primary focus at this time remains on resolving the incident and supporting DP World to restore their operations.

The Australian Federal Police is continuing to investigate the incident.

Ports Australia wrote in a statement that the disruption is only at DP World Australia terminals:

“Australia’s ports and other terminals remain operational. We understand the importance of accurate reporting in maintaining public confidence and preventing unnecessary concern.” 

This comes days after Chinese bank ICBC was hit with a cyberattack that reportedly affected US Treasury liquidity during a 30-year auction. And a string of cyber breaches at major ports in recent years. 

By Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley

Later today, we will publish our year-ahead outlook. Personally, it is a milestone – it is the 20th year that I have had the privilege of being part of this annual crystal ball-gazing at Morgan Stanley Research. For those of us steeped in the daily grind of the markets, stepping back and imagining how the economies and markets evolve over the course of the year ahead is a challenging endeavor, and one we take seriously. We strive to achieve cohesion and consistency in our outlooks across economies and markets through a highly collaborative and deliberative exercise involving our economics and strategy teams globally.

Our economists led by Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, expect below-trend growth in developed markets (DM) and a mixed growth picture evolving in emerging markets (EM). They see restrictive monetary policy of the last two years continuing to exert pressure on the global economic cycle over 2024. Positing that while global inflation has peaked, returning to target levels will take a period of below-par growth, they expect to see global growth slowing with most DM economies avoiding recession while taming inflation. They acknowledge that while recessions remain a risk everywhere, any recession in our baseline scenario (such as in the UK) should be shallow as inflation is falling with full employment, so real incomes hold up, leaving consumption resilient, despite more volatile investment spending.

The risk of a debt-deflation trap remains in place for China, resulting in a subpar improvement in both growth and inflation which weighs on headline growth in EM.

While growth remains robust in select EM economies such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, it won’t be sufficient to offset the drag from China.

After nearly two years of aggressive monetary policy, our economists expect policy rates across most DMs, with the notable exception of Japan, to remain broadly on hold in 1H24 and decline only gradually as inflation cools towards target levels.

Thus, despite the start of easing. policy rates in DMs remain restrictive even at the end of 2024. Japan continues to play to a different tune, inching towards policy normalization from the other end of the policy spectrum. Our economists expect the BoJ to remove both the Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) as well as Yield Curve Control (YCC) in January 2024 and hike once in July 2024.

For markets, 2024 presents a challenging set-up. Many markets have already priced a smooth macro transition, a soft landing characterized by moderating growth and inflation and eventually easier policy.

Thus, justifying current valuations across many asset classes requires the macro outlook to stick the landing perfectly. In that sense, there is little room for error. Unlike the last two years when we had a strong preference for RoW over US, we expect that US assets will find 2024 easier, and EM markets less so. In currencies, we expect that USD strength endures through 1Q, as growth and rate divergence continue and USD’s defensive characteristics remain alluring. JPY outperforms on the back of the BoJ exiting YCC and NIRP.

A slowing economy and policy easing set the stage for yields to be lower in the US, Europe, the UK and the dollar bloc, and yield curves to steepen. We think that this is a good set-up for ‘income investing’. For yield-focused investors seeking 6%+ yields, we see a wide range of opportunities across high-quality fixed income – DM government bonds, IG credit, agency MBS and senior tranches of securitized credit.

Given that there is little room for error, we lean towards a defensive posture, particularly in equities. Japan is our most preferred region while EM is our least preferred, dragged down by Asia growth. For US equities, we continue to recommend a defensive growth and late-cycle cyclicals barbell and look for a durable earnings recovery to emerge during 2024 even as we expect the earnings recession to continue in the short term. Meanwhile, we expect European equity earnings to trough in 1Q, but any recovery is likely to be L-shaped.

2023 has been a challenging year for markets and 2024 won’t be easy either, but we expect the nature of the challenge to be different.

You will get the full story in our global outlooks coming out later today and more detailed asset class-specific outlooks that follow. Stay tuned.

This weekend has seen the most intense fighting in Gaza City which has centered on al-Shifa hospital and its vicinity, which is the Strip’s largest, which has for days been totally surrounded by Israeli forces, and lacking food and water.

The hospital is “totally surrounded and bombardments are going on nearby,” its director, Mohammad Abu Salmiya, announced in a late Saturday statement. Israel has claimed that Hamas uses bunkers beneath the hospital as a command center. However, al-Shifa’s head of surgery, Dr Marwan Abusada, has told regional news sources that civilians are trapped and patients are dying.

“Shooting and bombardment are everywhere you hear it at every second around the al-Shifa Hospital. No one can get out. No one can come in. People who tried evacuate the hospital, they were shot at in the streets. Some got killed, some injured,” he described of the desperate situation. Some Israeli officials and media have alleged that it is in fact Hamas snipers doing the shooting, though without evidence.

Palestinian Minister of Health Mai al-Kaila has at the same time said Israel’s military “are not evacuating people from hospitals; instead they are forcibly evicting the wounded onto the streets, leaving them to face inevitable death.”

This was in response to the IDF announcing it would help facilitate the safe passage of babies and other wounded from the hospital. But the IDF has asserted repeatedly it is Hamas that is using civilians at the hospital as ‘human shields’ and that Hamas also hijacked inbound fuel which was meant for hospital generators. 

The Wall Street Journal on Sunday also quoted doctors who presented a scenario of mass suffering and death unfolding:

Doctors described an increasingly desperate situation at hospitals in northern Gaza, including the biggest one, Al-Shifa Hospital, where they said dozens of dead bodies have been left in the open and decomposing and nearly 40 prematurely born babies are without the incubators they need.

“If we do not stop this bloodshed immediately with a ceasefire or at the bare minimum a medical evacuation of patients these hospitals will become a morgue,” Doctors Without Borders, the international healthcare charity, said Sunday.

Competing and contrasting narratives have emerged concerning who is to blame for deaths at Shifa hospital…

The IDF publicly said yesterday it would help evacuate babies from Gaza’s #AlShifa hospital. But the head of Doctors Without Borders (MSF) – told us there is is no such conversation of coordinated action to help evacuate patients. His doctors are at Al Shifa. https://t.co/ITkJKRYXFH

— Margaret Brennan (@margbrennan) November 12, 2023

Israel’s Foreign Ministry has said the compounding misery is being orchestrated by Hamas…

Breaking: Hamas prevented the Shifa Hospital from receiving 300 liters of fuel from the IDF for urgent medical purposes.

📸 (left) A recorded conversation between an IDF officer and a senior official in the health ministry in Gaza who states that the Hamas Health Ministry… pic.twitter.com/dcfXfLxiwu

— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) November 12, 2023

Meanwhile, also on Sunday fighting along the Israeli-Lebanon border is worsening following the latest wave of Hezbollah rockets, some of which reportedly scored direct hits, leaving significant casualties. 

“At least six civilians were wounded, one critically, in an anti-tank guided missile attack by the Hezbollah terror group from Lebanon on Sunday, the military and medics said,” the Times of Israel reports.

Hezbollah has been facing pressure from both its supporters in the region and Palestinian armed factions to ‘do more’ and escalate its attacks on northern Israel.

Before and after: this is how Rashid Street looks like today in Gaza, which is located along the sea in the Strip

— Channel 12 pic.twitter.com/Lwa02ZaIHa

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 12, 2023

However, many of the IDF soldiers were reported as only “lightly wounded” and were evaluated at a local hospital. There are reports that Israel’s military is preparing more devastating retaliatory attacks on southern Lebanon.

Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The media and public should brace themselves for the most heated phase of the civil fraud trial of former President Donald Trump when courtroom proceedings resume on Monday—if past interactions between the defense and the judge and government lawyers are any indication.

On Nov. 13, the defense will begin to make its case on behalf of the 45th president and 2024 candidate, as well as his two sons and daughter, who are no longer defendants in the case yet faced relentless and acrimonious cross-examination on the witness stand over the last two weeks.

President Trump’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr. is expected to be the first to testify for the defense.

Trump lawyer Christopher Kise and Judge Arthur Engoron feuded throughout the cross-examination of President Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Ivanka Trump. The defense attorney has objected constantly that questions posed were irrelevant to the legal issues at hand or that no one could reasonably expect the people on the stand to recall the details of documents, records, meetings, and conversations from as far back as 2012.

As if to add further contentiousness to the proceedings, New York Attorney General Letitia James’s office on Friday sent a letter to Judge Engoron seeking to block testimony from four expert witnesses set to take the stand during the defense phase next week. Their testimony would address the accuracy of valuations contained in statements of financial condition submitted to Deutsche Bank and other firms for the purpose of securing favorable terms for loans and insurance. In the view of the attorney general’s office, such testimony is beside the point given that the judge has already ruled that Trump is guilty of fraud.

Nor has the pro-Trump side been inactive during the run-up to the next phase of the trial. On Friday, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) sent a lengthy letter to the New York State Commission on Judicial Conduct, spelling out a litany of complaints about how Judge Engoron has conducted himself and his alleged bias against the respondents in the lawsuit.

“This judge’s bizarre behavior has no place in our judicial system, where Judge Engoron is not honoring the defendant’s rights to due process and a fair trial. These serious concerns are exacerbated by the fact that the defendant is the leading candidate for President of the United States, and it appears the judicial system is being politicized to affect the outcome of the campaign,” Ms. Stefanik writes.

She then goes on to cite the judge’s reference to the former president as “just a bad guy” deserving of prosecution by the attorney general, and his blunt statement to President Trump that “we are not here to listen to what you have to say.”

Judge Engoron also told President Trump’s attorney Mr. Kise, “I am not here to hear what he has to say, now sit down!” and said, when Mr. Kise floated the idea of requesting a directed verdict, “You better not, Chris.”

The letter also characterizes the judge and members of his staff as “partisan Democrat donors” who, in violation of the New York Code of Judicial Conduct, have given lavishly to the party opposing President Trump.