Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank has relisted his 400-acre equestrian farm in northern Baltimore County—formerly owned by the Vanderbilt family—for $22 million, marking its second appearance on the market in less than a year. The listing comes as Under Armour grapples with years of financial troubles and recent restructuring, with shares down 87% from their 2015 peak. 

The Wall Street Journal reported that Plank’s Sagamore Farm—think of it as the billionaire’s playground—was listed by real estate agent Denie Dulin of Compass. The 16,000-square-foot main house features six bedrooms and overlooks a private dirt flat track for horse racing in the Worthington Valley area.

Plank purchased the property around 2007 but declined to tell WSJ how much he paid for the farm. He noted that more than $22 million was spent on the land and renovations over the years.

In the early days of ownership, and while UA shares were much higher, Plank ran a racehorse operation out of the farm. However, due to time commitments, he closed the farm’s racehorse operations in 2021. 

“That’s a business you don’t want to be in unless you’re in it all the time,” he said.

Time commitment? Or spending at least a million a year or more to upkeep the farm was a money pit.

In recent years, Plank has been locked in a dispute with a local conservatory group after he made plans to expand his Sagamore Spirit Distillery on the property. 

UA shares over the last decade have been a rollercoaster down. 

UA revenues stagnate. 

Plank should pick his local politicians more wisely. The billionaire hosted far-left Democrats, including Gov. Wes Moore, at Sagamore’s main house last spring in a closed-door fundraiser.

Moore (Soros-friendly) has accelerated Maryland’s rapid demise into twin crises…

Back to the farm, WSJ noted:

Plank, who has been CEO of Under Armour off and on since he founded the company in 1996, started quietly shopping Sagamore Farm off-market last year.

One investor group in the Baltimore area that inquired about purchasing the farm last year told us that zoning issues on the property deterred them from buying it. Much of the property is restricted by conservation zoning, they said.

“Plank has sold two other high-profile homes in the past decade, a Georgetown mansion for $17.25 million in 2020 and his Park City, Utah condo for $18 million in 2023,” WSJ noted. 

With UA shares near record lows and Plank offloading multiple properties in recent years, the re-listing of Sagamore may signal the billionaire’s growing need for liquidity.

The question now is, which Maryland billionaire will buy the property next? David Smith of Sinclair? 

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

The Jasper County Sheriff’s Office has released footage of police fatally shooting a Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill protestors during a traffic stop, just days after he was pardoned by President Donald Trump.

J6er Matthew Huttle, 42, was shot on Jan. 26 after “an altercation took place between the suspect and officer,” according to state police. At the time, no other details were released and authorities did not say what prompted the traffic stop.

Headline USA filed an open records request for the police body cam footage immediately after the incident. On Thursday, Jasper County Sheriff’s Office provided that footage.

According to the footage, police stopped Huttle because he was going 70 miles per hour in a 55 MPH zone.

🚨Graphic warning: J6er Matthew Huttle was attempting to flee the scene when an officer shot him on Jan. 26, according to body cam footage we just obtained from the Jasper County Sheriff’s Office
“I’m shooting myself,” Huttle said, apparently reaching for his gun. The officer… pic.twitter.com/CyGzS4N65i

— Headline USA (@HeadlineUSA) February 27, 2025

When he was stopped, Huttle informed police he didn’t have a driver’s license. He also notified police he was a J6er.

“I stormed the Capitol,” he said, adding, “I am driving without a license right now.”

“Why are you doing that?” the officer asked him, to which he responded: “I just moved back from Idaho because of my federal case. I’m just in the middle of everything right now.”

The officer returned to his car. Minutes later, he got out and had Huttle step out of his vehicle. The officer told Huttle he’d have to arrest him, and that’s when Huttle fled.

“I can’t go to jail for this, sir,” Huttle said before bolting to his vehicle.

“I’m shooting myself,” Huttle said.

“No, no, no, no!” the officer responded, right before firing shots.

🚨BREAKING: We have obtained police dash cam of the Jan. 26 fatal police shooting of recently pardoned Jan. 6 protestor Matthew Huttle.

WATCH: pic.twitter.com/34TiOzAjFk

— Headline USA (@HeadlineUSA) February 27, 2025

Huttle had been pardoned for a misdemeanor offense for entering the Capitol on Jan. 6. and was sentenced to six months in custody in 2023. He had traveled with his uncle to Washington to attend the Jan. 6, 2021, pro-Trump rally. Huttle was inside the Capitol for 16 minutes and recorded it on video.

“He is not a true believer in any political cause,” defense attorney Andrew Hemmer said in a court filing. “He instead went to the rally because he thought it would be a historic moment and he had nothing better to do after getting out of jail” for a driving offense.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

In the latest manifestation of the Trump administration’s earnest campaign against divisive Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) programs, the Department of Education on Thursday announced the launch of an internet portal that citizens can use to report DEI-driven wrongdoings in publicly funded K-12 schools. The portal’s debut comes as school officials across the country are shrugging off a Trump administration deadline to purge their institutions of DEI under threat of losing federal funding. 

The web page, which has already gone live, is open for use by parents, students, teachers, and anyone else who wants to report destructive DEI practices at schools anywhere across the country. “The U.S. Department of Education is committed to ensuring all students have access to meaningful learning free of divisive ideologies and indoctrination,” reads the text atop the portal, which is bluntly named “End DEI.”

The department said it will use the reports to identify potential investigation targets, with the threat of a withdrawal of federal funding. The portal asks tipsters to provide their email address, identify the offending school or school district, and use up to 450 words to detail the DEI-flavored wrongdoing. 

The End DEI portal is a way of adding teeth to a Feb. 14 Department of Education directive that gave schools two weeks to tear out discriminatory programs — from hiring practices to segregated graduation ceremonies to indoctrination about “structural racism” — or face federal enforcement action:    

The Department will no longer tolerate the overt and covert racial discrimination that has become widespread in this Nation’s educational institutions. The law is clear: treating students differently on the basis of race to achieve nebulous goals such as diversity, racial balancing, social justice, or equity is illegal under controlling Supreme Court precedent.

“For years, parents have been begging schools to focus on teaching their kids practical skills like reading, writing, and math, instead of pushing critical theory, rogue sex education and divisive ideologies—but their concerns have been brushed off, mocked, or shut down entirely,” said Tiffany Justice, co-founder of Moms for Liberty in a statement encouraging parents to “share the receipts of the betrayal” that’s unfolded in public schools. “This webpage demonstrates that President Trump’s Department of Education is putting power back in the hands of parents,” she added.

Others don’t share Justice’s joy. “This so-called ‘tip line’ is a shameless attempt to silence educators and dismantle programs that ensure every child—no matter their race, gender, or background—has a fair shot at success,” said Democratic Rep. Alma Adams, ranking member of the House Higher Education and Workforce Subcommittee. 

Trump’s war on government-facilitated DEI has predictably sparked resistance. Last Friday, US District Judge Adam Abelson, a Biden appointee, issued an injunction blocking the administration from canceling all federal contracts considered DEI-related. In his opinion, Abelson said Trump’s order potentially discriminatory, and was worded vaguely to an extent that parties to federal contracts reasonably feared “arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement.”    

Meanwhile, government officials and education associations across the country are advising schools to continue doing business as they like. “There’s nothing to act on until we see the administration or its agencies try to stop something,” American Council on Education president Ted Mitchell told AP. “And then we’ll have the argument.”

Get ready — the fur’s about to fly. 

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped:

“Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.”

One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull market cycles is the inevitable bashing of long-term valuation metrics. In the late 90s, if you were buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway, it was mocked as “driving Dad’s old Pontiac.” In 2007, valuation metrics were dismissed because the markets were flush with liquidity, low interest rates, and “Subprime was contained.”

Today, we again see repeated arguments about why “this time is different” because of ongoing beliefs that the Fed will bail out markets if something goes wrong. Of course, it is hard to blame investors for feeling this way, as it has repeatedly occurred since the “Financial Crisis.”

There is little argument, and as shown, current trailing valuations are elevated.

However, we need to understand two crucial points about valuations.

1. Valuations are not a catalyst of mean reversions, and;
2. They are a terrible market timing tool.

Furthermore, investors often overlook the most essential aspects of valuations.

1. Valuations are excellent predictors of return on 10 and 20-year periods, and;
2. They are the fuel for mean reverting events.

Critics argue that valuations have been high for quite some time, and a market reversion hasn’t occurred. However, to our point above, valuation models are not “market timing indicators.”  The vast majority of analysts assume that if a measure of valuation (P/E, P/S, P/B, etc.) reaches some specific level, it means that:

1. The market is about to crash, and;
2. Investors should be in 100% cash.

This is incorrect.

Valuations Reflect Sentiment

Valuation measures are just that—a measure of current valuation. Moreover, valuations are a much better measure of “investor psychology” and a manifestation of the “greater fool theory.” This is why a high correlation exists between one-year trailing valuations and consumer confidence in higher stock prices.

What valuations do express should be obvious. If you “overpay” for something today, the future net return will be lower than if you had paid a discount for it.

Cliff Asness of AQR previously discussed this issue:

“Ten-year forward average returns fall nearly monotonically as starting Shiller P/E’s increase. Also, as starting Shiller P/E’s go up, worst cases get worse and best cases get weaker.

If today’s Shiller P/E is 22.2, and your long-term plan calls for a 10% nominal (or with today’s inflation about 7-8% real) return on the stock market, you are basically rooting for the absolute best case in history to play out again, and rooting for something drastically above the average case from these valuations.”

We can prove that by looking at forward 10-year total returns versus various levels of PE ratios historically.

Asness continues:

“It [Shiller’s CAPE] has very limited use for market timing (certainly on its own) and there is still great variability around its predictions over even decades. But, if you don’t lower your expectations when Shiller P/E’s are high without a good reason — and in my view, the critics have not provided a good reason this time around — I think you are making a mistake.”

So, if Shiller’s CAPE predicts long-term return outcomes with a long lag, is there potentially a better measure?

A Fly In The CAPE Ointment

As noted, valuations are a significant predictor of long-term returns. However, investors’ collapsing holding periods of equities have created a mismatch between valuations and expectations. Furthermore, extensive changes in the financial system since 2008 support the argument that using a 10-year average to smooth earnings volatility may be too long. These changes include:

• Beginning in 2009, FASB Rule 157 was “temporarily” repealed to allow banks to “value” illiquid assets, such as real estate or mortgage-backed securities, at levels they felt were more appropriate rather than on the last actual “sale price” of a similar asset. This was done to keep banks solvent as they were forced to write down billions of dollars of assets on their books. This boosted the bank’s profitability and made earnings appear higher than they may have been otherwise. The ‘repeal” of Rule 157 is still in effect today, and the subsequent “mark-to-myth” accounting rule is still inflating earnings.
• Another recent distortion is the heavy use of off-balance sheet vehicles to suppress corporate debt and leverage levels and boost earnings.
• Extensive cost-cutting, productivity enhancements, labor off-shoring, etc., are heavily employed to boost earnings in a relatively weak revenue growth environment.
• A surge in corporate share buybacks to reduce outstanding shares and boost bottom-line earnings per share to support higher asset prices.

The last point is one of the most significant supports of higher valuations in the previous 15 years. As noted in “Earnings Estimates Are Overly Optimistic,” buybacks have contributed to higher earnings per share despite lackluster growth in top-line revenue.

A Look At The Impact Of Buybacks

Since 2009, corporate reported earnings per share have increased by 676%. This is the sharpest post-recession rise in reported EPS in history. However, that sharp increase in earnings did not come from revenue. (Revenue occurs at the top of the income statement.) Revenue from sales of goods and services has only increased by a marginal 129% during the same period. As noted above, 75% of the earnings increase came from buybacks, accounting gimmicks, and cost reductions.

Using share buybacks to improve underlying earnings per share contributes to the distortion of long-term valuation metrics. As the WSJ article stated in a 2012 article:

“If you believe a recent academic study, one out of five [20%] U.S. finance chiefs have been scrambling to fiddle with their companies’ earnings. 

This should not come as a major surprise as it is a rather “open secret.” Companies manipulate bottom line earnings by utilizing “cookie-jar” reserves, heavy use of accruals, and other accounting instruments to either flatter, or depress, earnings.

What is more surprising though is CFOs’ belief that these practices leave a significant mark on companies’ reported profits and losses. When asked about the magnitude of the earnings misrepresentation, the study’s respondents said it was around 10% of earnings per share.“

Unsurprisingly, 93% of the respondents pointed to “influence on stock price” and “outside pressure” as the reasons for manipulating earnings figures. Such “manipulations” also suppress valuations by overstating the “E” in the CAPE ratio.

Another problem is the duration mismatch.

Duration Mismatch

Think about it this way: When constructing a portfolio containing fixed income, one of the most significant risks is a “duration mismatch.”  For example, assume an individual buys a 20-year bond but needs the money in 10 years. Since the purpose of owning a bond is capital preservation and income, the duration mismatch is critical. A capital loss will occur if interest rates rise between the initial purchase and sell date 10 years before maturity.

One could reasonably argue that due to the “speed of movement” in the financial markets, a shortening of business cycles, and increased liquidity, there is a “duration mismatch” between Shiller’s 10-year CAPE and the current financial markets.

The chart below shows the annual P/E ratio versus the inflation-adjusted (real) S&P 500 index.

Importantly, you will notice that during secular bear market periods (shaded areas), the overall trend of P/E ratios is declining.  This “valuation compression” is a function of the overall business cycle as “over-valuation” levels are “mean reverted” over time.  You will also notice that market prices are generally “trending sideways,” with increased volatility during these periods.

Furthermore, valuation swings have vastly increased since the turn of the century, which is one of the primary arguments against Dr. Shiller’s 10-year CAPE ratio.

But is there a better measure?

Introducing The CAPE-5 Ratio

Smoothing earnings volatility is necessary to understand the underlying trend of valuations better. For investors, periods of “valuation expansion” are where the gains in the financial markets have been made over the last 125 years. Conversely, during periods of “valuation compression,” returns are much more muted and volatile.

Therefore, to compensate for the potential “duration mismatch” of a faster-moving market environment, I recalculated the CAPE ratio using a 5-year average, as shown in the chart below.

There is a high correlation between the movements of the CAPE-5 and the S&P 500 index. However, you will notice that before 1950, the movements of valuations were more coincident with the overall index, as price movement was a primary driver of the valuation metric. As earnings growth advanced much more quickly post-1950, price movement became less dominating. Therefore, the CAPE-5 ratio began to lead to overall price changes.

Since 1950, a key “warning” for investors has been a decline in the CAPE-5 ratio, leading to price declines in the overall market. The most recent decline in the CAPE-5 is directly related to the collision of inflation and the contraction in monetary policy due to increased interest rates. However, complacency that “this time is different” will likely be misplaced when the CAPE-5 starts its subsequent reversion.

The Deviation Matters

We can look at the deviation between current valuation levels and the long-term average to better understand where valuations are currently relative to history. It is crucial to understand the importance of deviation. For an “average,” valuations must be above and below that “average” over history. These “averages” provide a gravitational pull on valuations over time, which is why the further the deviation is away from the “average,” the more significant the eventual “mean reversion” will be.

The first chart below is the percentage deviation of the CAPE-5 ratio from its long-term average going back to 1900.

Currently, the 107.01% deviation above the long-term CAPE-5 average of 15.86x earnings puts valuations at levels only witnessed two (2) other times in history. As stated above, while it is hoped “this time will be different,” which were the exact words uttered during the five previous periods, the eventual results were much less optimal.

However, as noted, the changes that occurred post-WWII regarding economic prosperity, operational capacity, and productivity warrant examining only the period from 1944 to the present.

Again, as with the long-term view above, the current deviation is 90.15% above the post-WWII CAPE-5 average of 17.27x earnings. Such a deviation level only occurred twice in the last 80 years: in 1996 and 2021. Again, as with the long-term view above, the resulting “reversion” was not kind to investors.

Conclusion

Is CAPE-5 a better measure than Shiller’s CAPE-10 ratio? Maybe, as it adjusts more quickly to a faster-moving marketplace. 

However, I want to reiterate that neither Shiller’s CAPE-10 ratio nor the modified CAPE-5 ratio were ever meant to be “market timing” indicators.

Since valuations determine forward returns, the sole purpose is to denote periods that carry exceptionally high levels of investment risk and result in abysmal future returns.

Currently, valuation measures clearly warn that future market returns will be substantially lower than they have been over the past 15 years. Therefore, if you are expecting the markets to crank out 12% annualized returns over the next 10 years so that you can meet your retirement goals, it is likely that you will be very disappointed.

*  *  *

For more in-depth analysis and actionable investment strategies, visit RealInvestmentAdvice.com. Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights tailored to help you achieve your financial goals.

Bitcoin briefly entered a bear market earlier, tumbling 21% over seven sessions before staging a sharp rebound in early European trading – up 7.5% off its lows of about $78.4k. 

The turnaround was partially fueled by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, after news hit via Bloomberg that it enabled its entire model portfolio business to allocate funds into the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT).

BLACKROCK ADDS OWN BITCOIN ETF TO MODEL-PORTFOLIO LINEUP

Thank you for your panic sales

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 28, 2025

“We believe Bitcoin has long-term investment merit and can potentially provide unique and additive sources of diversification to portfolios,” Michael Gates, lead portfolio manager for BlackRock’s Target Allocation ETF model portfolio suite, wrote in investment commentary on Thursday.

The IBIT addition presents a potential new source of demand for the ETF, as Bitcoin trades around the $84k mark at lunchtime.

Goldman Sachs’ Blake Germani, Suzanne Dannheim, and Solo Semenyuk provided fresh insights into institutional crypto sentiment in a client note Friday, summarizing key takeaways from the firm’s latest digital assets survey for the fourth quarter of top hedge fund managers and asset allocators worldwide:

• 62% trade physical crypto or products linked to crypto (directly or indirectly)

• 65% expect to maintain or increase their crypto holdings within the next 12 months

• 50% believe counterparty risk is the most important aspect when picking a spot cryptocurrency trading counterparty

Here’s the survey:

Institutional ownership of digital assets is rising in President Trump’s second term. 

Just days after calling him a ‘dictator without elections,’ President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Friday, where the two discussed US efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and discuss the minerals deal.

According to Trump, there’s a ‘very fair deal’ on the table, which would allow the US to use Ukraine’s rare earths for AI and military applications. Trump said that once the minerals deal is done, the war will be over, and “Russia won’t want to return.”

Zelensky, apparently not a historian, said that Putin ‘began the war’ and ‘has to pay,’ while Trump says he’s “in the middle” regarding the war, adding “I’m for both Ukraine and Russia.” Trump also added that he’s committed to NATO.

More headlines from the meeting:

• TRUMP: WE ARE GOING TO TAKE RARE EARTHS AND USE IT FOR ALL WE DO, INCLUDING AI AND MILITARY WEAPONS
• TRUMP: WE WILL HAVE ARMS TO UKRAINE
• TRUMP: HOPEFULLY WE WON’T HAVE TO SEND MUCH
• TRUMP: YOU WON’T GO BACK TO FIGHTING
• TRUMP: WILL SIGN MINERALS DEAL TODAY
• ZELENSKIY: MINERALS DEAL IS NOT ENOUGH
• ZELENSKIY: DOCUMENT IS A GOOD START BUT NOT ENOUGH

The day before the meeting, Trump softened his tone on the ‘dictator’ comment, saying that he now has a “lot of respect” for the Ukrainian leader (who’s canceled elections, banned the Orthodox Church, and outlawed non-USAID propaganda media).

Earlier, Zelensky said he met with a bipartisan US Senate delegation, which he described as “an important visit to the United States.”

“We take pride in having strategic partners and friends like the United States. We are grateful for the unwavering bicameral and bipartisan support for Ukraine throughout all three years of Russia’s full-scale aggression,” he said on X.

An important visit to the United States. In Washington, I met with a bipartisan delegation from the U.S. Senate.

Our discussions focused on the continued military assistance for Ukraine, relevant legislative initiatives, my meeting with President Trump, efforts to achieve a just… pic.twitter.com/KJcosUpygc

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 28, 2025

Developing…

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There is a chilling case of censorship out of Clarksdale, Mississippi, where a court ordered a local newspaper to delete a publication that the city claimed was libelous. 

It is not clear that The Clarksdale Press Register editorial by publisher Floyd Ingram did constitute libel. Ultimately, the city backed down, but the actions of both the local officials and the court remain troubling.

Ingram’s article, “Secrecy, Deception Erode Public Trust,” criticized the mayor and city council of Clarksdale for the lack of public notice before it passed a resolution to establish a 2 percent tax on retailers selling alcohol, tobacco, hemp, and marijuana.

Ironically, Ingram supported the “sin tax” to support “public safety, crime prevention, and continuing economic growth in the city.” 

However, he objected that, before the government “sent [the] resolution to the Mississippi Legislature,” it “fail[ed] to go to the public with details about this idea.” 

He added,  “Maybe [city commissioners] just want a few nights in Jackson to lobby for this idea—at public expense.”

The city went ballistic. 

The city council voted unanimously to sue the Press-Register for libel. Mayor Chuck Espy declared “I would like for the record to reflect, even though I did not vote, I am in full support, and I am fully vested in the decisions that the four commissioners unanimously said.”

Of course, these politicians could set the record straight by simply responding publicly to the allegations. Interestingly, the clerk appeared to confirm that the public notice on the resolution was a snafu. During the litigation, the clerk confirmed that “I customarily e-mail the media any Notice of Special Meeting. However, I inadvertently failed to do so.”

So, the premise of the column was confirmed. While I understand the sensitivity over the suggestion of a desire to travel to Jackson, that line is clearly protected opinion.

On February 13, the city council voted unanimously to sue the Press-Register for libel over its editorial. “I would like for the record to reflect,” added Mayor Chuck Espy, “even though I did not vote, I am in full support, and I am fully vested in the decisions that the four commissioners unanimously said.”

Judge Crystal Wise Martin of the Chancery Court of Hinds County ruled in favor of a temporary restraining order that required the paper to “remove the article…from their online portals and make it inaccessible to the public.”

Epsy celebrated the decision, posting “THANK GOD! The City of Clarksdale WON today! The judge ruled in our favor that a newspaper cannot tell a malicious lie and not be held liable….Thank You, God, for a judicial system.”

The role of the government in bringing a libel action is particularly controversial and chilling. In New York Times Co. v. Sullivan, the Supreme Court observed that “for good reason, ‘no court of last resort in this country has ever held, or even suggested, that prosecutions for libel on government have any place in the American system of jurisprudence.’”

The Court added that such a role “has disquieting implications for criticism of governmental conduct…A State cannot under the First and Fourteenth Amendments award damages to a public official for defamatory falsehood relating to his official conduct unless he proves ‘actual malice’—that the statement was made with knowledge of its falsity or with reckless disregard of whether it was true or false.”

The actions of both the city council and the court run counter to this precedent, and in my view, they could have been appealed successfully.

H/T: Joe Lancaster

A recession is imminent…

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW model  – forecasting US economic growth – just downgraded its estimate of Q1 2025 GDP growth (or lack of it) from +2.3% to -1.5%…

After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

Put a different way, spending less on transsexual Guinea pigs in Bora Bora means US GDP gets hit.

It does make us wonder how a ‘model’ of economic growth can swing 380bps into contraction from trend growth in a week… but hey, propagandists gonna propaganda.

Who could have seen this coming?

Well we did!

Here’s the bigger play at hand, and why there is only token pushback to DOGE.

You cut enough spending – even if it’s all grift and fraud – you eventually get a recession, guaranteed. That’s all Congress is waiting for cause then they use the “emergency” to vote through a far…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 8, 2025

And here is Mizuho’s Dominic Konstam just yesterday confirming the narrative perfectly…

DoGE-led recession risk?

The market is focused on a negative economic fall out from Federal spending cuts. The level of potential Federal job losses are too small to derail growth but overall government spending has been egregiously high in recent years. There has also been excessive job growth in the “government+” sectors including federal, state and local government and in education and health. If DoGE sets a precedent on jobs and achieves spending cuts that ricochet through the quasi-public sector, it is likely that new economic headwinds will develop.

The Fed is not cutting rates anytime soon but that restrictive policy stance bodes well for inflation containment.  There are clearly still “seasonal” related bumps in inflation but we are a far cry from any trend rise in inflation. We remain confident that the disinflationary process is intact, more so with the Fed on hold.

The real focus is on what kind of “new” economic order is in store for the global economy. We lay out a framework for Trump 2.0 that rests on two key principles: rebalancing trade and lowering rates.  We see a tariff regime with different dollar outcomes as juxtaposed to a more cordial Bretton Woods 2 (BW2)/ Mar-a-Lago accord that overlays new (global) fiscal priorities and includes the debt-for-security swap. We show that market pricing is not too far off assigning a relatively large weight to a tariff outcome with stronger dollar. With growth headwinds the Fed will be able to get-off-pause, easing once disinflation resumes.

The curve has retained much of its steepness despite the belly more recently driving curve direction (bullish flattening/bear steepening 210s). We think the recent flattening “relief” reflects an appropriate repricing against the bear steepening fears initially triggered around Trump 2.0. Our yield curve analysis in the context of likely net supply outcomes and Fed reaction do allow for further curve re-steepening but only bullishly, on a sustained basis. Net supply alone doesn’t (bearishly) steepen the curve much. A proper bear steepening with the Fed priced not to cut much, requires a shift higher in Fed expectations. This in turn would likely need to reflect rising inflation expectations and a Fed unwilling to hike. At least for the Powell Fed this seems unlikely, in our view.

Our preferred view is that we will get more tariffs with a strong dollar. Despite the headline rhetoric, the effective tariff rate is still likely to be diluted (closer to 10 than 30 percent, that’s what reciprocity means!) – the one-off price impact is less than otherwise. With growth headwinds mounting, we think investors should accumulate duration on yield set back with the curve still being pressured flatter. Come q2 we expect this to segue into bullish steepening on resumed disinflation.

February was an absolute shitshow for macro data with inflation surprising to the upside and growth drastically surprising to the downside. Put together, they form the Fed’s nemesis – Stagflation!

All of which could be seen as good news for Trump: he can impose tariffs (inflation) AND the Fed will be forced to cut rates (growth).

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Trump adviser Elon Musk and the White House have criticized media reports about 21 civil service employees resigning from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on Feb. 25.

DOGE, created by Trump by renaming the existing United States Digital Service (USDS), is tasked with rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse in federal operations. Reducing staff numbers and limiting hiring are also part of the targeted cost-cutting efforts.

In a joint resignation letter, a copy of which was obtained and reported on Feb. 25 by The Associated Press (AP), the 21 staffers said they were refusing to use their technical expertise to “dismantle critical public services.”

“We swore to serve the American people and uphold our oath to the Constitution across presidential administrations,” they wrote. “However, it has become clear that we can no longer honor those commitments.”

Musk, who leads DOGE, responded to the AP report on social media platform X, calling it “fake news” and “propaganda.”

“These were Dem political holdovers who refused to return to the office,” the businessman wrote. “They would have been fired had they not resigned.”

In a statement, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was dismissive of the mass resignation.

“Anyone who thinks protests, lawsuits, and lawfare will deter President Trump must have been sleeping under a rock for the past several years,” Leavitt said.

“President Trump will not be deterred from delivering on the promises he made to make our federal government more efficient and more accountable to the hardworking American taxpayers.”

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, Harrison Fields, the White House principal deputy press secretary, said the issue was an example of inaccurate reporting.

“Democrats and the mainstream media have once again gone off the deep end with their breathlessly inaccurate reporting on President Trump’s widely popular mission to rid the federal government of waste, fraud, and abuse,” Fields said.

“DOGE has effectively become part of the USDS as a component of the White House, and any leftover career bureaucrats who don’t align with the President or DOGE are neither advised nor welcomed to be a part of this never-before-seen mission to make the government more efficient.”

Musk and DOGE have been hit with multiple lawsuits seeking to stymie its operations.

Musk also recently drew criticism after the Office of Personnel Management sent an email to government workers over the weekend asking them to provide a bullet-point list of their accomplishments, with Musk commenting on social media that those who do not respond will face termination.

There is no official tally for the total firings and layoffs to date. Still, a review of various reports suggests that it is at least 20,000 people, with an additional 75,000 people accepting deferred resignations, bringing the total affected to nearly 100,000.

The Associated Press and Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

Feb. 28 is the deadline for public school districts to end all DEI-related practices, policies, and curricula or risk losing federal funding under President Donald Trump’s executive order enforcing Civil Rights protections.

The U.S. Department of Education has not yet specified the next steps for sanctioning schools following the deadline and hasn’t disclosed whether any districts proactively contacted the federal agency with proof of compliance.

“Additional guidance on implementation is forthcoming,” Craig Trainor, the agency’s acting assistant director for Civil Rights, wrote via email to The Epoch Times.

Trainor’s Feb. 14 letter provided to states and school districts noted the 14-day deadline for ceasing DEI programs.

He called race-based preferential treatment, crude racial stereotypes, and practices that promote segregation within a school “a shameful echo of a darker period in this country’s history.”

“The department will no longer tolerate the overt and covert racial discrimination that has become widespread in this nation’s educational institutions,” the letter reads.

“The law is clear: treating students differently on the basis of race to achieve nebulous goals such as diversity, racial balancing, social justice, or equity is illegal under controlling Supreme Court precedent.”

That prompted a lawsuit from the American Federation of Teachers and the American Sociological Association.

The Feb. 25 complaint, filed in a Maryland federal court, seeks to bar enforcement of Trump’s anti-DEI policy on grounds that it is overly vague and violates free speech rights.

The Epoch Times has previously reported that the five largest school districts in the nation (serving New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, and Las Vegas) collectively stand to lose more than $5 billion in federal funding if they don’t end DEI practices.

The deadline falls at the same time that many public school districts are planning their 2025–2026 budgets. Federal money typically makes up about 10 percent of a local district’s annual spending plan.

Federal funding from the U.S. Education Department is provided to schools with low-income student populations and covers special education programs.

The agency has also provided billions of dollars in competitive grants for curricula and staffing, many of which were centered on DEI and prioritized under the Biden administration.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture funds free and reduced meals for low-income students at school.  During the 2022–23 academic year, more than half of K-12 public school students were eligible for free or reduced meals, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

The Virginia-based Parents Defending Education organization constantly monitors public school activities related to DEI and transgender ideology.

As of Feb. 25, 22,805 schools serving more than 14 million students across 46 states and Washington, still maintain DEI policies, practices, and plans, according to the organization’s website.

The website provides links to DEI-related materials on the websites for each of the districts identified.

“School districts need to end diversity, equity, and inclusion policies and return to the original charter of educating children,” Rhyen Staley, a PDE researcher, wrote in a public statement.

“DEI has been a disaster for K–12, and the results are evident, as roughly 70 percent of American K–12 students are not proficient in reading or math.”