Kamala Harris’ Stepdaughter Helps Raise $8M For Gaza While Mom’s Admin Pushing Billions For Israel
Vice President Kamala Harris’ stepdaughter, Ella Emhoff, has begun publicly raising money for Gaza – promoting a fundraiser on her personal Instagram account “supporting urgent relief for Gaza’s children” which is now absent from her profile.
The promotion asks her 315,000 Instagram followers to support the Palestinian cause, without mentioning that her stepmother’s administration wants to send billions to Israel as part of a $100 billion package.
The fundraiser, which has netted more than $7.8 million so far, is being operated by the Palestinian Children’s Relief Fund, a nonprofit based in Kent, Ohio, which raked in more than $21 million in 2021, according to ProPublica.
It’s unclear how much, if anything, Ella Emhoff has personally donated to the cause. –NY Post
“It’s of tremendous concern and I find it abhorrent,” Rep. Jeff VanDrew (R-NJ), a member of the House Homeland Security Committee told the outlet. “To be honest with you, I am kind of stunned by it. It’s disturbing to the maximum degree.”
VanDrew said it was almost certain that Hamas would be able to siphon any humanitarian cash that went to Gaza.
Despite her father being Jewish, Ella’s rep told The Forward in 2021 that “Ella is not Jewish.”
“It’s not something she grew up with. Ella truly has no qualms with the faith, but she does not want to speak on behalf of Judaism, as she does not celebrate herself.”
Emhoff — whose biological mom is film producer Kerstin Emhoff — has styled herself as a model and making boobs-out appearances at New York Fashion Week.
She is close with her stepmother, who congratulated her in an X posting after Emhoff’s graduation from Parsons in 2021.
“Keep dreaming with ambition and there is nothing you cannot achieve,” Harris wrote. -NY Post
Last week we wrote the “We Didn’t Start the Fire” remake. It was meant to be a quick (and hopefully mildly entertaining) way to highlight just how many things are affecting markets and the global economy (geopolitically, internationally, and domestically). The list of issues facing us is long, and certainly helped create the “wall of worry” that Wall Street managed to climb this week.
The Geopolitical Front
While there were many headlines this week, nothing much has changed from our previous view that the risk of escalation remains real, and that we’ll have difficulty forming a domestic policy that keeps everyone happy.
We tackled the Middle East in this week’s webinar. The replay runs just under an hour but it’s a fantastic way to keep up to date on the many moving parts in the region along with some global issues. Beyond the military aspects, we explore supply chain issues, energy policy, and even the roles of various international organizations. Rachel Washburn, who was embedded with special forces in Afghanistan as an Army Intelligence officer, moderated the conversation and did a great job of including many questions that the audience was peppering her with from the get-go. Generals (Ret.) Deptula and Robeson brought a wealth of relevant information, perspective, and thoughts on where this could go. General Deptula, a retired Air Force general, was able to provide some deep insight into the air campaign, while General Robeson’s Marine Corps career was extremely relevant to the discussion around the fighting on the ground. I highly recommend watching the replay.
As a backdrop, prior to the webinar and last weekend’s Billy Joel tribute, you can find:
Multiple SITREPS on the events in the region. Each SITREP is a reaction to events as they occur in real time. They are driven by the expertise of Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group, and are a key tool in our efforts to keep clients informed of what the events mean and what the reactions and consequences are likely to be.
On the more “macro” front, there is not much of a change following our two prior pieces:
A Difficult Week outlined several scenarios and risks for the global economy. It also included our initial podcast on the war.
We will continue to do our best to provide insights that hopefully help you navigate this on many levels, as it is a complex, treacherous, and highly emotional situation that is constantly evolving (or devolving, as the case may be).
The Market Dumpster Fire
Ok, we had the exact opposite of a dumpster fire in markets last week, unless you were short or owned puts. Stock indices were up around 6% for the week! If we want to nitpick, the Russell 2000 was up almost 8%!
Credit spreads tightened, though the CDX indices heavily outperformed the actual bond market (the CDX indices tend to correlate much more to equities than actual bonds). The rally in high yield bonds was impressive, but very much in line with what would be expected given the rally in bond yields and equities.
But the market that’s “truly on fire” (or at least the market that sparked the flames) was the Treasury market.
On October 23rd, the 10-year breached 5%. It almost did it again on the 26th, and it briefly traded below 4.5% on Friday! A move between 40 bps and 50 bps in just over a week is extreme by any standard and drove markets. WIRP (and the probability of Fed actions) has almost completely ruled out a hike and we now have an almost 30% chance of a cut at the March meeting! What a difference a week makes!
While the move is quite large, it is completely understandable:
The Fed’s refunding was not as bad as feared (or priced in) especially at the long end. In D.C. Has Done The Fed’s Job, we expressed several reasons why the fear about supply, while likely correct longer-term, was overdone.
We suspected that Powell would try to sound hawkish, but include many caveats (especially surrounding the moves in the yield curve and real yields). He couldn’t be as hawkish as many were positioned for (The Game is Slipping Away).
Our assessment of the Fed meeting (The Fed & Treasury Behind Us) was bullish with the caveats that the Middle East could disrupt the “everything rally” (it hasn’t yet) and that the economic data could be bad enough to bring recession chatter back to the headlines (not yet).
The Jobs Report Was Universally Weak. One thing that I learned quickly was that when you send out a report titled “weak report” and you only glance at the replies, your first reaction is to think that the comments were calling my report weak . In any case, this report was weak enough to keep the “everything rally” going.
But all that is history, where are we going?
Bottom Line
The “easy” part of the Treasury rally is over. We could bounce around, but I am looking for more weakness on the data side to push us below 4.3% on the 10-year. After the recent rally, we might drift higher in yields first and see some shorts get put on, but I think that we’ll see 4.3% before 4.75%.
The Treasury market moves will be mainly expressed 5 years and out as the Fed will be in no rush to cut rates. This implies that a bet on more negative curves is the direction to lean towards.
On credit spreads, I like credit spreads a lot here, especially for high quality IG.
Cash credit spreads have some room to move tighter, given the move in CDX spreads and other risk assets.
The calendar should start to slow as we head towards Thanksgiving.
With all the noise still coming out of D.C., I keep thinking that investors should be overweight high-quality corporates as opposed to government securities. These corporates have good governance, global businesses, and every intention to pay back every dollar that they owe, when they owe it. I am still toying with the idea of what the “new safe asset” is, and it isn’t super important today, but it is a “hypothetical” question worth exploring and high-quality corporates keep coming to mind.
Stocks will likely follow earnings, yields, and may try to rally some more as we’re about to be bombarded with “seasonal” effects (or at least the reporting will focus on seasonal effects). I like stocks until we get to 4.3% on the 10-year, and then would be extremely nervous as we won’t get there without greater recession concerns!
We should expect some consolidation, but I continue to favor more of the “everything” rally.
Hope you enjoyed the extra hour of sleep, though the cost of it getting dark so early doesn’t seem to be worth the price.
Gateway Project Rail Tunnel Between NY And NJ Breaks Ground After Decades Of Red Tape
A $16.1 billion rail tunnel in between New York and New Jersey is finally set to break ground after more than 10 years of delays. And we’re sure we’ll be happy to report that its up and operating in probably another 100 years.
But we digress. “A new rail tunnel linking New York and New Jersey is officially starting construction,” Bloomberg reported last week. The project is called the “Gateway Project”.
US Secretary of Transportation Mayor Pete was joined at a ceremony in Hudson Yards by New York Governor Kathy Hochul, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer. He remarked: “This is a day that I know that this city, this region, this country has been looking for and waiting for for a very long time.”
Uh, no, Pete. That will be the day when the tunnel is actually up and running and people don’t need to wait 2 hours and pay $75 to get through the Lincoln Tunnel.
But we digress again. The Bloomberg report notes that The Gateway Project should be a crucial solution for alleviating traffic bottlenecks beneath the Hudson River—a pivotal juncture on the Northeast Corridor that spans from Boston to Washington.
It is the nation’s most frequented passenger rail line, catering to over 750,000 passengers daily. The current tunnel, under Amtrak’s ownership and also serving New Jersey Transit, has stood for over a hundred years and faces mounting reliability concerns.
The first construction phase will lay underground casings linking the new tunnel to New York’s Pennsylvania Station. However, commuters won’t see benefits until the tunnel, with its two tracks, is operational by 2035. And we’ll take the “over” on that date.
This year, the Gateway tunnel secured a $6.9 billion grant from the Federal Transit Administration, with an additional $3.8 billion announced on Friday. This brings Washington’s total contribution to over $11 billion, covering around 70% of the project’s cost, according to Schumer. New York and New Jersey will shoulder the remaining expenses.
The push for a tunnel alleviating rail congestion between New York and New Jersey began in the 1990s but faced political hindrances and delays. A prior tunnel initiative, already funded, was halted by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in 2010. The Gateway proposal surfaced in 2011 but faced challenges during the Trump era, according to Bloomberg.
Biden’s infrastructure legislation allocated $8 billion over five years to the Capital Investment Grant program, which prioritized Gateway. Additionally, Biden’s team earmarked $292 million from this law earlier this year for a pivotal early stage of the project.
Think of how many tunnels we could have built – and how quickly we could have them finished – with the $100 billion we just shipped to Ukraine?
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is refusing to recall the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, promoting the view that the inclusion of a previously-undisclosed DNA sequence that leaves behind fragments is not of concern.
The FDA is not required to take the COVID-19 vaccine, or other COVID-19 shots, off the market, an agency spokeswoman told The Epoch Times via email.
“With over a billion doses of the mRNA vaccines administered, no safety concerns related to the sequence of, or amount of, residual DNA have been identified. With regard to the FDA-approved mRNA vaccines, available scientific evidence supports the conclusion that they are safe and effective,” the spokeswoman added.
The FDA did not provide any evidence to back up its position.
The email came in response to 10 questions about the inclusion of the Simian Virus 40 (SV40) DNA sequence in the Pfizer-BioNTech shot.
The Epoch Times has submitted a Freedom of Information Act query to try to unlock when the FDA learned about the sequence, and from whom. The FDA denied expedited processing for the request, claiming there is not a “compelling need” to quickly provide the information.
Several foreign agencies, including Health Canada, have confirmed outside scientists’ assessment that the vaccine contains the DNA sequence. They’ve also said BioNTech did not highlight the inclusion in regulatory filings.
The FDA would not answer a number of questions about the sequence, including when the agency learned about its inclusion and whether it learned about it from Pfizer or BioNTech .
BioNTech and Pfizer have not responded to inquiries.
The inclusion was first identified by Kevin McKernan, a former researcher and team leader for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Human Genome Project.
“Nothing will be identified if they continue to choose not to look,” Mr. McKernan told The Epoch Times via email.
A number of scientists have said the inclusion raises major concerns, such as having potential for oncogenesis—or a process that leads to cancer—including Dr. Robert Malone, a vaccine expert whose work has been cited by Pfizer.
The inclusion means the Pfizer-BioNTech shot is “adulterated” and should be recalled, Dr. Malone told The Epoch Times.
Federal law states that the FDA can test drugs suspected of being adulterated. If the drugs fail to meet certain standards, and a health hazard is found, the FDA is directed to advise the manufacturer to issue a recall.
If the manufacturer then fails to issue a recall, “seizure should be considered,” the law states.
“The general policy is that if there’s adulteration and reasonable risk of toxicity, there must be immediate action,” Dr. Malone told The Epoch Times. “This is a core mandate to the FDA from Congress to prevent adulteration of drugs, medical devices, and food. And then the next question is, is that adulteration? Is it associated with a reasonable risk of toxicity in humans? And my opinion is, absolutely.”
Dr. Malone, after reviewing the FDA’s response, said that regulators have not done their job.
“The normal process worldwide has been that that risk must be rigorously assessed proactively. But they haven’t done it, and their rationale for not doing it is the reason why they were so adamant that this is not a gene therapy technology,” Dr. Malone said.
Moderna has said that its vaccine meets the FDA’s gene therapy definition, but regulators have defined the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna products as vaccines, avoiding questions about oncogenesis.
Why Was SV40 Included?
SV40 sequences have been used by biotechnology companies in drug products.
“Specific sequences for the non-infectious parts of SV40 are commonly present in plasmids used for manufacturing of biological active substances,” the European Medicines Agency (EMA) told The Epoch Times via email.
The purpose is primarily to “drive very aggressive expression of a gene,” Mr. McKernan told The Epoch Times.
EMA alleged that Pfizer considered the sequence “a non-functional part of the plasmid.”
“If commonly used, then why are they included if they serve no function?” Dr. Malone wondered in a Substack post.
But the result is residual DNA left behind, according to testing. That could have negative effects, some scientists say.
David Wiseman, a former Johnson & Johnson scientist who conducted some of the testing, said that he’s concerned the residual DNA pieces “could actually get into your genome.”
If it does that, “it can disrupt gene regulation and potentially lead to the oncogenesis,” Mr. McKernan said.
Phillip Buckhaults, professor of cancer genomics and director of the Cancer Genetics Lab at the University of South Carolina, said earlier this year that he tested vials of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and detected DNA.
“I’m kind of alarmed about the possible consequences of this both in terms of human health and biology, but you should be alarmed about the regulatory process that allowed it to get there,” he told the South Carolina Senate.
Mr. Buckhaults said the DNA “could be causing some of the rare but serious side effects like death from cardiac arrest.”
He has encouraged regulators to test the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
“This is probably not a problem, but it is surprising and therefore causing concern,” Mr. Buckhaults wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, tagging the FDA. “You should address with rigorous safety review ASAP.”
Blinken Tells Abbas He Asked Israel To Use ‘Smaller Bombs’ On Gaza
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on another multi-day tour of the Middle East, where this time Arab leaders have finally acquiesced to meet with him as the Gaza crisis continues, at a moment the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say that Gaza City is surrounded.
On Sunday Blinken visited Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to meet with President Mahmoud Abbas of the internationally backed Palestinian Authority (PA). Blinken reportedly told Abbas that the US is pressing Israel to “minimize civilian harm”. He had some interesting ideas on how to do that.
Blinken had previously again met with Netanyahu Friday where according to fresh reports he pressed the Israeli prime minister to use “smaller bombs”.
“U.S. officials told the Israelis that they could reduce civilian casualties if they improved how they targeted Hamas leaders, gathered more intelligence on Hamas command and control networks before launching strikes, used smaller bombs to collapse the tunnel network and employed their ground forces to separate civilian population centers from where the militants are concentrated,” The New York Times reported.
Blinken of course stressed Israel’s “right to defend itself” but still pressed for a humanitarian “pause”. In Ramallah, he vowed to Abbas that the US will step up humanitarian aid efforts to the besieged Gaza Strip.
According to the latest grim figures, some 1.5 million Gazans have now been internally displaced:
The UN agency OCHA has said that of them, 710,275 are sheltering in 149 UNRWA facilities, 122,000 people are in hospitals, churches, and public buildings, 109,755 people are in 89 non-UNRWA schools, and the remainder are residing with host families.
Palestinian Authority leaders have charged that Israel is conducting “ethnic cleansing” – also by encouraging Palestinians to leave the entire northern half of the Strip while under bombardment.
Abbas has yet to publicly condemn Hamas’ Oct.7 terror attack, with the NY Times saying if he did so it would create severe backlash among his own population, also at a moment of increased sporadic fighting in the West Bank:
Still, he has not publicly condemned Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks, largely out of fear of inflaming sentiment among Palestinians, with whom he is deeply unpopular. He has called more generally for a cease-fire and protections for Palestinian civilians, including in the West Bank.
Mr. Abbas echoed those messages on Sunday in his meetings with Mr. Blinken, according to Wafa, the official Palestinian news agency. It said Mr. Abbas had called for “an immediate halt” to the war in Gaza and an end to the attacks in the West Bank, which he described as “no less horrific.”
The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken rebuffed calls from his counterparts in Egypt and Jordan for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, saying that a halt would allow Hamas to repeat its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. https://t.co/7tds2ilvgUpic.twitter.com/3YYsQtC2IZ
Interestingly, Abbas told Blinken that the Palestinian Authority could assume power in a post-conflict Gaza. This comes after Blinken earlier said the US remains open to the possibility of an international peacekeeping force to assume control in Gaza. Abbas stipulated the following:
But Abbas said the Palestinian Authority would only assume power in Gaza as part of a “comprehensive political solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to the Palestinians’ official WAFA news agency. Abbas condemned Israel’s bombardment of Gaza as a “genocidal war” and urged Blinken “to immediately stop them from committing such crimes,” the agency reported.
Over the weekend the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza surpassed 9,500 killed – with some half of these being women and children. Some 240 Israeli and foreign hostages are still being held in the Gaza strip, though there are reports some may have been killed. Possibly dozens of IDF troops have been killed and wounded amid the ground operation, but Israel has been slow to publish these figures.
New Forecast Reveals Strong El Niño May Boost Wintery Activity Across Mid-Atlantic
A newly published forecast map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals that the El Niño weather pattern might bring increased snowfall to regions such as the Sierra, the southwestern mountains, the Plains, and the Mid-Atlantic states. This forecast aligns with the typical southward shift of the jet stream during an El Niño event, which usually carries more moisture and precipitation along the southern tier of the US.
The map below shows snowfall totals for past moderate-to-strong El Niños. Notice how wetter-than-average conditions are shown across the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and Mid-Alantic. While drier-than-average conditions are expected across parts of the Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and interior Northeast.
“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast states this winter,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, wrote in a report.
Although actual snowfall depends on many factors, the latest forecast indicates that El Niño, the first in four years, might be a change for residences in Washington, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City. These areas have experienced several years of La Niña conditions, which have resulted in winters with minimal snowfall.
Here’s what the weather community on X is saying about this upcoming winter:
For those of you following, I have been saying this is a migrating Modoki el nino ( my own phrase) where core of warmest water migrates from enso 1.2 to enso 3.4. Those are the stormy cold el nino winters in US. Canadian SST all in pic.twitter.com/NmG4QmSbJv
I think you’re onto something here. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is currently only a 0.6(weak atmospheric response to El Nino), but If we assume it increases to around 1.0 in the November update, these analogues will fit very nicely.
Congress Sneaks In Stealth $34,000 Pay Raise; Gaetz, AOC Among More Than 200 Lawmakers To Benefit
As House Democrats were set to hand power over to the Republicans following their midterm loss, they slipped in a provision into the House’s internal rules under the guise of aiding their less affluent members; a $34,000 allowance to ostensibly help with living expenses in Washington D.C.
A deep dive into the records by the Washington Free Beacon reveals that over 200 lawmakers, including the vociferous Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), have dipped into this taxpayer-funded pot, a sumptuous feast on the nation’s dime.
Ocasio-Cortez, who has previously lamented the costliness of D.C. living on a Congressperson’s salary, now enjoys taxpayer support for accommodations in a luxury building replete with amenities that seem more Silicon Valley than Capitol Hill.
Bipartisan handout
So far, 113 Democrats and 104 Republicans, including millionaire members like Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), have partaken in the program, drawing $1.4 million from taxpayers during the first half of 2023 alone.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), a critic of past budgetary excesses (whose wife says she’s got a ‘chef husband’), claimed the largest share of the fund.
When pressed about the apparent contradiction, Gaetz justified his actions to the Washington Free Beacon, emphasizing his adherence to the law and his thrifty shopping habits: “I’ve complied with the law, and my cooking is often with discount BOGO products. I try to do the best in the kitchen from the BOGO life,” Gaetz said. He also highlighted his record of fiscal responsibility: “During my time in Congress, I’ve returned over $860,000 to taxpayers from the Members’ Representational Allowance (MRA).”
In January the NY Times shed light on the secretive subsidy, reporting that the Democrats’ move to authorize it through an internal rule change effectively provided representatives with a pay raise sans political fallout. Former Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AK) criticized the lack of transparency, stating, “You can have a good public policy debate on whether congressmen should be paid more… but it really ought to be done in public,” lamenting the secretive process.
Amidst these revelations, Zoe Bluffstone, spokeswoman for the Congressional Progressive Staff Association, directed attention to the plight of congressional staffers, telling the Times that the focus should be on “increasing pay for staffers,” many of whom struggle financially.
The subsidy itself is derived from members’ office budgets and allows for lodging expenses up to $258 per day and meal expenses up to $79 per day. The rules stipulate that members can be reimbursed for hotels or rentals linked to their official duties, though not for mortgage payments, and they do not need to submit receipts—only a certification of incurring the eligible expenses.
There’s a growing disconnect between the prices of stocks and bonds.
“It seems bonds are adjusting to a post-QE world but for some reason equities haven’t. If you had told me that rates were gonna be where the are now on Jan. 1 and earnings would be flat and the S&P would be up 12-13%, that’s not part of my process.” https://t.co/IkAAQkkgBK
Bonds have begun to reflect the reality of a “post-QE world” while stocks have yet to do so.
“The historical relationship between bond yields and the S&P 500 P/E multiple suggests that the recent disconnect can be corrected in one of two ways — either the equity market has further downside or yields will move lower.” https://t.co/AKvLOrUJ1xpic.twitter.com/5kELvTpJn0
Moreover, the growing “liquidity hole” suggests bonds may not yet be done pricing it in.
‘If the T-bill rate stays at 5% or higher, to get a risk premium in bonds you need a bond yield of 5.5% or higher. And given the liquidity hole, demand will need to come from private sector investors, who will require a risk premium relative to cash.’ https://t.co/PtBw3eW5AX
Meanwhile, the message being sent by the yield curve is not, by any means, bullish for the broad stock market.
‘The arrows in the graph below show the occasions where the spread between the 3-month T-Bill yield and the 10-year T-Bond yield was inverted, and it either became un-inverted, or the slope of the curve steepened by at least 100 basis points.’ https://t.co/0T80AgQKTLpic.twitter.com/zi9kHKOBNO
And the forward guidance out of the corporate sector apparently confirms this view.
‘At just over the half-way mark of the reporting period, “weak demand” is among the top trending phrases on earnings calls. If the pace of mentions holds for the next few weeks, it would be the most on record, according to data going back to 2000.’ https://t.co/3jQDCthcH4pic.twitter.com/sg3a6hVxrj
Turkey Recalls Ambassador To Israel, Holds Netanyahu Personally Responsible For Gaza Atrocities
Turkey on Saturday announced the recalling of its ambassador to Israel, and the temporary breaking off of contacts with the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in response to the soaring death toll in Gaza due to Israeli aerial and ground attacks.
Israel had already begun recalling some of its diplomats from Turkey exactly one week prior, after President Erdogan said Israel has been “openly committing war crimes”. Turkey’s foreign ministry has newly announced that its ambassador is being recalled “in view of the unfolding humanitarian tragedy in Gaza caused by the continuing attacks by Israel against civilians, and Israel’s refusal (to accept) a ceasefire”.
But Israel’s foreign ministry shot back, calling the move “another step by the Turkish president that sides with the Hamas terrorist organization.”
The death toll in Gaza has surpassed 9,500 – and Turkey earlier said it is seeking to present a war crimes case against Israel before the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC). But Saturday saw Erdogan escalate his rhetoric further, stressing he’s holding Netanyahu personally responsible for the atrocities in the West Bank.
“Netanyahu is no longer someone we can talk to. We have written him off,” Turkish media quoted him as saying; however, Erdogan also said, “Completely severing ties is not possible, especially in international diplomacy.”
Prior to Oct.7 the two countries had been working hard to mend and deepen relations. Historically, the Palestinian issues has been a sharp dividing line, but there were reports that progress in ties had been made.
Erdogan in an unprecedented personal critique of Netanyahu has said the Israeli prime minister has “lost the support of his own citizens.” He emphasized of Netanyahu further, “What he needs to do is take a step back and stop this.”
One week ago at a huge Gaza solidarity rally in Istanbul, Erdogan had told a crowd of hundreds of thousands, “Israel, we will also declare you as a war criminal to the world, we are preparing for it, and we will introduce Israel to the world as a war criminal,” according to a state broadcaster.
Reports of large-scale protests outside major US airbase in southern Turkey:
Using gas bombs and water cannons, Turkish security forces disperse thousands demonstrating outside the US military base of İncirlik in Adana province in protest of the Israeli genocide campaign in Gaza. pic.twitter.com/nvH6mWxljM
“Israel is committing war crimes” as an “occupier,” he said at the time, and added: the “West owes you, but Türkiye does not owe you.” At the same time Erdogan has been on record as calling Hamas a “liberation group” and not terrorists. It’s certainly all the more an interesting stance given Turkey is in NATO.
While some are worried that Chat GPT could soon be replacing every job from journalist to juggling coach, one group of people that don’t have to worry – yet – are Wall Street’s CFAs.
Recently a team at JP Morgan paired with academic researchers to see if ChatGPT could pass the first two levels of the coveted CFA exam, which usually takes humans four years to complete in total, according to Bloomberg.
At least for now, the AI bot isn’t able to pass the test.
In an 11 page report written after the trial, the researchers wrote: “Based on estimated pass rates and average self-reported scores, we concluded that ChatGPT would likely not be able to pass the CFA Level I and Level II under all tested settings. GPT-4 would have a decent chance of passing the CFA Level I and Level II if prompted.”
Researchers, comprising scholars and six individuals from JPMorgan’s AI Research group, such as Sameena Shah and Antony Papadimitriou, are at the forefront of this study. In its commitment to equipping finance professionals with current knowledge, the CFA Institute has overhauled its examination syllabus. As early as 2017, the institute declared its intention to incorporate queries on artificial intelligence and big data analysis techniques into its examinations.
Chris Wiese, managing director for education at the CFA Institute, told Bloomberg: “While multiple choice exams and essay questions remain excellent ways to assess learning and understanding in a secure proctored environment, the day-to-day in finance does not present itself only as a series of short, standalone questions.”
He added: “This is why to become a CFA charterholder, we also require 4,000 hours of qualifying work experience, a minimum of two references, a strong moral compass, and, coming soon, the completion of hands-on practical skills modules.”
The company is exploring large-language model technology to aid CFA candidates. Thousands take the three-tiered test regularly, with recipients often dedicating over 300 hours of study per level. Recent years have seen a dip in pass rates, with Level 1’s average at 37% this August, down from 43% in 2018.
Level I of the CFA has 180 multiple choice questions, whereas Level II combines case studies with 88 questions. Both language models found Level II tougher. In Level I, ChatGPT and GPT-4 excelled in areas like derivatives and equity, but faltered in financial reporting and portfolio management.
In Level II, ChatGPT lagged behind GPT-4 in alternative investments and fixed income but surpassed in portfolio management and economics. ChatGPT’s main errors were knowledge-related, while GPT-4 often made calculation mistakes, the Bloomberg article notes.
The report concluded: “The one error type that GPT-4 makes more frequently than ChatGPT was reasoning errors. It would seem that, along with GPT-4’s greater ability to reason, it has a greater chance of ‘talking itself’ into incorrect lines of reasoning.”
We’ll see how long this lasts. Our guess is Chat GPT has replaced half of Wall Street’s already useless sell side salespeople analysts by 2025.
