If history’s any indicator, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could haunt Democrats in 2024 like the Affordable Care Act did in the 2010 and 2014 elections.
The most devastating line of those campaigns was: “My opponent voted for Obamacare, which cut $716 billion from Medicare.”
Until now this has been obscured by budget gimmicky. Former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakins’ organization, the American Action Forum, uncovers what happened.
In short, the IRA’s Medicare prescription drug reforms save the federal government $266 billion, but the savings are used to fund new climate spending, not reduce seniors’ pharmacy costs.
The analysis concludes that, “the Medicare savings are simply another means of financing the IRA’s $670 billion in clean energy tax credits and other spending on energy and the environment.”
While the law features some inexpensive new benefits, like a $2,000 cap on pharmacy out-of-pocket costs, these consume just a fraction of the savings from the prescription drug policies.
If all the savings had been used to improve Medicare, it would mean $40,000 more for each of the program’s 65 million enrollees. Instead, fewer than 10% of them will see any savings, usually less than $300. Just enough so the law’s backers can say it “reduces drug costs for seniors.”
The big winners from IRA policies like letting Medicare “negotiate” drug prices will be millions of younger, white-collar professionals who’ll get $7,500 credits for electric vehicles (EVs). For each senior who saves a few dollars at the pharmacy counter, six EV buyers will save thousands at the dealership.
This creates several problems next year for candidates who backed the law.
Democrats got hammered in 2010 and 2014 for voting to use Medicare funds to pay for Obamacare. In 2012, progressives returned the favor with the infamous “throw granny off a cliff” ad campaign attacking GOP Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s Medicare proposals.
Second, candidates who backed the IRA have nowhere to hide in 2024.
Senators who voted for it will be on the ballot with President Biden in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio and Arizona. When the issue is raised in one state, candidates in all the others will have to respond, too.
Third, the law torpedoes the middle-class, “Bidenomics” message.
It’s tough to talk about growing the economy “from the middle out and the bottom up” when transferring wealth from Medicare seniors to EV buyers, who typically earn $150,000 a year. That’s twice the nation’s median household income.
Finally, taking savings from Medicare to fight climate change will make no sense outside the bubbles of climate activism and academia.
Most voters think rising sea levels pose far less of an “existential threat” than policies that put their health care at risk. Even those who are concerned about the environment see health care as a much higher priority. Furthermore, voters are notoriously stingy when asked to make real trade-offs for the cause.
“Remember the good ole’ days when we lived in a country where no one had the answer to this baffling question: How could something like the Holocaust happen?”
– John Nolte, Breitbart
Of course, you realize that if this tragic business in the Middle East gets out of hand millions of people might die, maybe even you and me. Any way you cut it, looks like Islam wants to rumble. Basic problem: the little slab of land on the Mediterranean at issue is in the possession of one group of people and another group of people wants to drive them out. There is no “two state solution” because there is only one place in that place.
The world has already forgotten the butchery of October 7. Islam won’t even go so far as to acknowledge that something happened there, or that it matters. This is a quandary for Western Civ which operates lately on the ethos that anything goes and nothing matters. Face it: that’s a luxury belief. A society in collapse learns painfully that the first thing to go is luxury, Louis Vuitton bags and foolish Woke thinking. Western Civ may not be able to pretend any longer that nothing matters.
The reason Israel is where it is is because Western Civ treated the Jews abominably in the 1930s and 40s. The result, establishing a state of Israel in its historic location, was a power move, of course, by the powers who won the Second World War, but it had the imprimatur of a sacred duty. We’ve forgotten the impact, even to regular grunt US soldiers who liberated the extermination camps of Europe, of the unspeakable barbarism they encountered. It maimed the psyche of Western Civ to discover what savagery its best educated member nation turned out to be capable of. Is there any question that Germany lost its mind in those years?
Western Civ has been busy losing its mind for about seven years now. It’s so tormented that it has been flirting with suicide, for instance, allowing its borders to be overwhelmed with swarms of declared antagonists to Western culture. The European Union guilt-tripped themselves into letting that happen. The process in the USA appears more sinister and calculated, a sheer political ploy. In any case, nobody is lifting a finger to stop it.
Israel is a full-fledged member of that lunatic asylum. Israel is engaged in as much of a civil war between Left and Right as its godfathers in Europe and North America are enduring. On top of that, Israel decided to become the poster-child for Covid-19 vaccination “uptake.” It seemed like a valiant stand in the first flush of the Covid “crisis,” but now it looks more like they poisoned more than 90-percent of their population. You don’t hear much about it these days, but it’s lurking there, just like the massive vaccine damage that Europe and America have by stealth sustained lurks in the background of rising war fever and disintegrating economies.
It looks like the Islamic nations that surround Israel like a child in an alligator pit have made the calculation that now is the time to gobble up the little interloper. Trouble is, that child is armed to the teeth. It also looks like the alligators don’t care. It happens that they have small alligator brains, not that good for gaming out clashes of civilizations. All they care about is chomp chomp and gulp gulp. One question they fail to ask: Would the Middle East actually be a better place without an Israel? I bet this hasn’t occurred to any of them. Once it’s gone, they’ll be chomping and gulping each other, I assure you.
Our nation, under the leadership of “Joe Biden” (…iden…iden…iden…iden…), has deployed our mighty warships in the waters all around and amongst Israel’s adversaries. Hard to see how that couldn’t happen, our sacred duty and all. If called upon, they can probably do a lot of damage — though there is plenty of reason to believe that Iran has enough anti-ship cruise missiles to create a big problem for us. Heck, Iran has enough long range conventional guided missiles to turn Haifa and Tel Aviv into ashtrays. But then, five minutes later, the same would be true for Teheran and Damascus, only they’d be radioactive. And who knows what those swarms of moiling migrants in the US and Euroland might be inspired to do, when it comes to that?
Jihad is in the offing. Too many are itching to set it off. Now they’re just waiting for an excuse, a reason to ignite the fuses. The obvious excuse would be an Israeli military incursion into Gaza. That would git’er done, I’m sure. The Israelis must realize this. Despite prior expectations, though, and even given the thirst for vengeance, they might realize it’s unnecessary. They’ve done enough bombing in Gaza. They could neutralize the command network of Hamas pretty much the same way they got the Black September ringleaders of the Munich Olympics massacre, 1972 — a methodical hunt over years, decades. They don’t have to shout from the rooftops, either. Everyone will know.
There is the fate of the Gaza hostages to consider. It doesn’t look good. Given enough time, of course, they can be shuttled around geographically here, there, and everywhere and concealed for years. They have value. World opinion will turn on the hostage-takers, though you might argue that no longer matters. I rather expect that rescue operations are well-planned and some may be carried out. But, overall, many of these poor pawns are apt to be lost. Tragic is tragic.
If we manage to avoid World War Three, America has its own grave problem to consider, which is comprehensive collapse – of economic activity, the financial scaffold for it, and of civil order in a society under deadly stress.
Most of this damage has been induced by our own political leaders.
Now that the House of Representatives has been put in order, it’s time for that body to act expeditiously and relieve “Joe Biden” of his responsibilities… and then Ms. Harris… and then Messrs. Garland, Mayorkas, and Wray.
Out with them, post haste, and begin the project to save our own country.
Israeli Tanks Exchange Fire With Hamas Inside Gaza, Small Arms Clashes Heard, As Offensive Expands
Update(1605ET): It has become clear that the IDF has entered its next phase of battle operations, meaning a full ground assault, as heavy aerial bombardment continues. But Israeli officials in the last hours have dubbed this another “expanded” raid. The Biden White House is now making a show of wanting a more ‘humanitarian’ approach and has asked Israel to ensure only “surgical” strikes, and to allow the Strip access to aid.
There’s emerging evidence of tank fire and small arms fire at the border, after the IDF confirmed that ground forces are entering the next phase of their operations. The Times Of Israel in a breaking update is reporting, “Palestinians claim Israeli tanks exchanging fire with gunmen inside Gaza.” Separately, other regional analysts reporting, “Anti-tank missiles have been fired at Israeli forces that entered Gaza.”
Hamas leadership has responded with a “call to arms” for Gaza and the West Bank. There have since been reports of large overnight protests by Palestinians in the territories. The fate of the over 220 Israeli and foreign hostages hangs in the balance, and reports suggest the US is still seeking to keep the negotiating process going even as Israel invades.
Footage released by Hamas terror group of intense clashes after Israel launched Ground Operation inside Gaza. pic.twitter.com/Nto73l48EK
“All I can tell you is we want to see the hostages released,” he said.
The United States is offering military advice, Kirby added. But ultimately, he said, Israel is going to make its own decisions on the battlefield and answer for them.
“They have to drive the strategy that they have developed, operationally and then tactically,” he said.
Fox News’ foreign correspondent near the border has posted video of heavy exchanges of machine gun fire…
Below are some of the latest developing headlines:
US IS NOT DRAWING RED LINES FOR ISRAEL: KIRBY
US CONCERNED INVASION COULD DERAIL HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS: WAPO
U.S. URGES ISRAEL AGAINST GAZA GROUND INVASION: WAPO
US URGING FOR MORE “SURGICAL” OPERATION IN GAZA: WAPO
ISRAELI PM ADVISER REGEV: WE ARE BEEFING UP THE PRESSURE ON HAMAS, OUR MILITARY OPERATIONS ARE UNDERWAY – FOX NEWS
US, ISRAELI OFFICIALS TELL ABC TONIGHT’S OPERATIONS NOT LARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE
US reconnaissance plane spotted active near the Israel-Gaza coast…
A U.S. Air Force RC-135V “Rivet Joint” Signal Intelligence Platform (HOMER42) is currently heading towards the Coast of Israel. pic.twitter.com/QZIoUoKPve
I’m texting with a Palestinian source inside Gaza. He’s using an American SIM card that he says is picking up Cellcom, an Israeli network. Watch as tanks fire behind us during the report. pic.twitter.com/xk69XwO88I
Update(1340ET): Over the last hour there have been widespread reports that communications to the Gaza have been externally cut, and minutes ago Israel’s military (IDF) spokesman has confirmed that ground forces are expanding their operations tonight, and simultaneously Gazans are being told to immediately evacuate the north and go to the south of the Strip. “Ground forces are expanding the ground activity this evening,” the IDF affirmed. Below is more of the statement from military spox, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari:
“The Air Force is striking underground targets very significantly,” he says, adding that ground forces will “expand” their activity tonight.
For the last two days, IDF infantry forces and tanks have conducted limited raids into the Gaza Strip. Hagari says the IDF will continue to strike Gaza City and surrounding areas in northern Gaza, and renews his call for Palestinians to evacuate to the Strip’s south.
“We are prepared to defend in all arenas. We are acting in order to protect the security interests of the State of Israel,” he says.
Currently broad swathes of Gaza are without electricity, water, or easily available food or medical supplies. Hospitals say they are on the their last batches of fuel to run generators. Al Shifa hospital, Gaza’s largest, is being threatened with aerial attack.
The Palestinian Telecommunications Company has confirmed “cessation of all communications and internet services” within the Gaza Strip.
The “this is it moment” and anticipation of the ground invasion is spooking markets, with oil and gold climbing…
Gold ripping…
By all accounts, the last several hours have witnessed the fiercest barrage of airstrikes on Gaza since the war begun in the wake of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack.
Al Jazeera LIVE FEED & coverage:
* * *
Update(1200ET): Friday has witnessed a flurry of premature ‘ceasefire imminent’ headlines which have turned out not to be true, at least by all other indicators, most especially the ground situation and the fact that Israel’s airstrikes have only stepped up in the last 48 hours. Israeli officials have rejected these false starts. For example, Doha-based Al Jazeera seems intent on presenting Qatar as the unsung ‘peace’ hero in all of this, while claiming that—
Al Jazeera sources say negotiations, mediated by Qatar, on a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas are “progressing and at an advanced stage”.
And yet, inbound rocket sirens continue to blare across southern Israel on Friday, and in the Strip IDF aerial forces are blasting away at Hamas HQ’s and locations. What’s more is there are reports saying Israel has increased its warnings for Al Shifa Hospital to be evacuated, which is Gaza’s largest medical complex.
Regional war correspondent Levent Kemal is being widely cited, who said, “Local Palestinian sources report that Israel has notified that it will strike all units of the Shifa Hospital.” A series of IDF public statements on Friday strongly suggest Israel is preparing military action against the hospital, saying that Hamas intentionally places military sites at the hospital and under the ground:
Hamas operates within and hides beneath the largest hospital in Gaza.
Their priorities are clear—and the people of Gaza are not among them. pic.twitter.com/7M4ZqjFyYs
Hamas has denied and condemned the Israeli charge that it’s effectively using the hospital as a giant human shield:
On Friday, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that “terrorists move freely in Al-Shifa hospital” in Gaza City, adding that it was being used to run part of Hamas’ command and control centre.
The Palestinian group strongly denied the claims on Friday.
“We categorically affirm the falsehood of the Israeli occupation’s story about the use of Al-Shifa Hospital for military purposes, or the presence of any Hamas leadership in it,” the group said in a statement.
“We call on the UN and Arab and Islamic countries to intervene immediately to stop the madness of bombing and destroying medical facilities,” it added.
In short, there’s been a lot of big claims on the diplomatic front in the last several hours, but with nothing materializing – and IDF and Hamas statements pointing to the opposite…
As we noted earlier, there’s little in these developments that looks very “trucey” at all…
Oil is starting to recover from the ‘Truce Imminent’ headline slump…
* * *
Oil and gold prices are sliding after a series of headlines hit this morning suggesting a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war is imminent.
Qatar-based Al-Jazeera says, quoting sources it didn’t name, that the Qatar-mediated negotiations are progressing “quickly” to achieve a “cease-fire” agreement and a hostage exchange deal between Israel and Hamas.
‘War premia’ are leaking out of gold…
…and oil is giving back gains after rallying overnight as the US conducted strikes on two Iran-linked facilities in Syria, reanimating investor concerns of a wider conflict and disrupt crude supplies….
However, putting the oil move in context…
…suggests the oil market is not fully believing the headline.
This doesn’t look very “ceasefirey”…
Some of the heaviest strikes I’ve seen against northern Gaza since the war began. pic.twitter.com/PobwbNIYKW
Additionally, and perhaps more notably, Reuters reports that Qatar told the United States that it was open to reconsidering Hamas’s presence on its territory, a senior US official said on Friday, once the crisis over scores of hostages kidnapped by the militant group is resolved.
The understanding, which was first reported by the Washington Post, was reached during a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, when the top US diplomat was visiting Doha earlier this month, the official said.
Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Surge; Stocks Purged As USA Credit Risk Rises Into WW3
US Macro data surprised to the upside this week (seasonally-adjusted, of course), despite tightening financial conditions…
Source: Bloomberg
…but the US earnings outlook is deteriorating rapidly, as Barclays strategists say full-year guidance “looks unusually soft” for this time of year, while the number of profit warnings are already trending toward season-highs with about half of the S&P 500 still to report…
Source: Bloomberg
…and while the market’s expectations for inflation over the next 12 months is lower this month, Americans’ expectations for inflation is dramatically rebounding…
Source: Bloomberg
…and the term premium has soared to its highest since 2015…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which makes one wonder, why all of a sudden UST yields are rising along with USA sovereign risk’s sudden surge…
Source: Bloomberg
Around 1300ET, the IDF warned of an imminent ground invasion and several signals showed internet being cut off in Gaza. That sent stocks legging lower and gold and oil soaring…
The US majors were already at the lows of the day, and those losses accelerated on the Gaza headlines. The Dow was the marginal winner of the bunch, not puking quite as hard as the rest…
VIX actually ended lower on the week (by a smidge) and has decoupled from the drop in the S&P…
Source: Bloomberg
A really ugly week for big-tech with the Magnificent 7 tumbling to the lowest since May 2023 …
Source: Bloomberg
…but the banks were battered too
S&P and Nasdaq entered correction making October an ugly month…
Source: Bloomberg
The equal-weighted S&P tumbled to one-year lows today and the cap-weighted S&P is starting to catch down to it fast…
Source: Bloomberg
Amid all the chaos, Treasuries were actually relatively well-behaved today, holding yesterday’s gains with yields down between 5 and 10bps on the week (led by the belly)
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yields fell back toward 5.00% (10Y broke below it and 30Y oscillated around it)…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) uninverted…
Source: Bloomberg
Amid all the crazy swings in stocks and commodities, the dollar ended the week very marginally higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged midweek, topping $35,000 for the first time since May 2022, and held the gains
Source: Bloomberg
Oil dropped over 4% this week, but today’s escalation pushed WTI back up to $86…
Spot Gold surged on the Gaza headlines, topping $2000…
Source: Bloomberg
…up to its highest since May (nearing record highs)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as Alasdair Macleod noted on America’s deteriorating finances: gold is now rising along with US Treasury yields…
Source: Bloomberg
…indicating that the dollar is becoming destabilised by Bidenomics, and a debt trap is being sprung on US Government finances.
How in the world did the Toronto airport lose $15.3 million in gold bars along with $1.9 million in cash?
That remains unclear, but a lawsuit filed by Brink’s shed a little bit of light on the situation.
The Peel Regional Police at Toronto Pearson International Airport issued a statement last April saying a container holding valuable goods was unloaded from an aircraft, transported to a warehouse, and then disappeared. According to a New York Times report, authorities “seemed baffled” at the time and offered little additional information.
According to the lawsuit, Brink’s was responsible for transporting cash and gold from Switzerland to Canada.
The shipment was in two separate containers. The cash – $1.9 million – was supposed to go to a Vancouver-based currency exchange. Meanwhile, a shipment of 400 kilos of gold bars valued at $15.3 million was heading to Toronto-Dominion Bank.
The shipment was through an Air Canada service called AC Secure. Perhaps they should rename it “AC Secure-ish.”
According to the lawsuit, the cash and gold were quickly offloaded from the aircraft and taken to an Air Canada warehouse for customs inspection. About 40 minutes later, an “unidentified individual” entered the warehouse. According to the lawsuit, “No security protocols or features were in place to monitor, restrict or otherwise regulate the unidentified individual’s access to the facilities.”
The lawsuit contends the mystery person simply showed Air Canada employees a waybill for an “unrelated shipment,” and the employees released the cash and gold – no questions asked. As the lawsuit put it, the person “absconded with the cargo.”
The lawsuit implies it might have been an inside job.
Now, if you think that Air Canada is responsible for the value of the lost cargo, you haven’t ever lost luggage on an international flight. Brink’s can expect to recover about 1% of the $17.2 million loss. Thus the lawsuit. As the New York Times explains, “Brink’s contends that the extra fees it paid for the secure service mean that Air Canada must now reimburse it for the full amount of the missing cash and gold.”
We’ll see how that works out for them.
Meanwhile, police say they have nothing new to add.
The cops may or may not catch the perpetrators of the heist, but I’d bet dollars to donuts the cash and gold are long gone. All the thieves have to do is melt down the gold bars and reform them, and they will be totally unrecognizable. After all, gold is gold. And cash isn’t particularly easy to trace either. This is why governments have launched a war on cash.
There is a lesson here. People want gold. If you have it, you need to make sure it’s secure.
SchiffGold can help with that. Check out our recommended vaulting services. Or if you prefer to keep your gold at home, consider a high-quality safe
Aaaaand, It’s Gone? Southpark Destroys Disney Over Woke Casting — Right As “Snow White” Delayed
Disney has backed itself into quite the corner after picking a fight with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) over woke themes throughout their content.
Earlier this year, the company came under fire for its anticipated Snow White remake – a “woke” version set for release in March, which cast a feminist Cuban Latina who suggested that scenes with Prince Charming could be cut from the film, and replaces “the seven dwarfs” with what Disney bills as “magical creatures” of varied colors, sizes, shapes, and genders.
Zegler dismissed the storyline of the classic version as old-fashioned, saying, “The original cartoon came out in 1937, and very evidently so.”
“There’s a big focus on her love story with a guy who literally stalks her,” Ms. Zegler said. “Weird! Weird. So, we didn’t do that this time.”
Instead, Zegler explained that the more progressive version took “a different approach to what a lot of people will, I’m sure, assume is a love story just because we cast a guy in the movie, Andrew Burnap, great dude.”
“It’s a whole different concept, and I just totally disagree with it, and I know my dad and Walt would also very much disagree with it,” Mr. Hand said.
He said he disagrees with the entire concept, calling it a “disgrace,” suggesting that Disney is “trying to do something new with something that was such a great success earlier.”
Aaaaand, it’s gone?
About that…according to Bloomberg, Disney has taken Snow White off the 2024 schedule, and will now come out on March 21, 2025. Another film, Elio by Pixar, will also be bumped to 2025. While it’s more likely to do with the writer’s strike than Disney having a change of heart, we can only imagine what a trainwreck it will be sans a complete rewrite.
The twin strikes by screenwriters and actors have delayed many projects this year. Although the writers are back to work, the actors are still negotiating a new contract. Studios have struggled to even promote finished films with actors unable to participate in premieres and other events.
Destroyed by Southpark
On Friday, Paramount+ released a first-look clip of “South Park: Joining the Pandaverse,” in which Stan, Kyle, Cartman and Kenny are played by a group of diverse women in what turns out to be Cartman’s nightmare about Disney ruining productions with forced wokeness.
JUST IN: New South Park episode blasts Disney and says all their movies “suck now” and specifically blames Lucasfilm president Kathleen Kennedy.
Remarkable.
“Joining the Panderverse” drops today and all of the main characters have been replaced by minority women, an obvious… pic.twitter.com/ebaXBZhypI
ExxonMobil “Always Looking” For More M&A, CFO Kathy Mikells Says
If there was any doubt left in your mind whether or not the oil and gas industry is literally running like greased lightning nowadays, it has been reported that ExxonMobil is still seeking out new M&A opportunities – even after the firm’s massive $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer.
After the company’s blowout earnings and hiked dividend to end the week, CFO Kathy Mikells told Financial Times that the supermajor is still on the prowl opportunities: “It’s important to say that we’re always looking. Many times I’ve described us as very inquisitive but also very picky. A deal has got to be what we say is ‘one plus one equals three’.”
“It’s important to understand that we’re in a depletion business with upstream. I think [the deal] puts us in a good position for the long term,” she added.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods said on Friday: “Pioneer will help us grow supply to meet the world’s energy needs with lower carbon intensity while Denbury improves our competitive position to economically reduce emissions in hard-to-decarbonize industries.”
Pioneer is the leading player in the Permian Basin, FT notes, a key hub for America’s oil industry that stretches across Texas and New Mexico. Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer will secure it a commanding role in the oilfield, contributing to 15% of the total crude production.
This marks Exxon’s second major deal this year, following its $5 billion acquisition of Denbury Resources in July to enhance its carbon management capabilities. Denbury owns the U.S.’s largest CO2 pipeline network.
Exxon reported earnings of $9.1 billion for the quarter, slightly lower than analyst expectations of $9.6 billion. But it likely won’t matter heading into the back end of 2023 with geopolitical tensions on the rise and a consistent bid likely under the price of crude well into 2024.
Here is what the company reported for Q3:
Total revenues & other income $90.76 billion, beating estimates $88.81 billion
Adjusted EPS $2.27 vs. $4.45 y/y, missing estimates of $2.37
Total Q3 earnings: $9.1BN, up $1.2BN from Q2
Upstream adjusted net income $6.14 billion, -48% y/y, beating estimates of $6.07 billion
Energy products adjusted net income $5.55 billion, +0.3% y/y, beating estimates of $3.12 billion (2 estimates)
Chemical products adjusted net income $249 million, -69% y/y, missing estimates of $377.8 million
Specialty products adjusted net income $619 million, -19% y/y, beating estimates of $588.2 million
On Thursday, it was also reported that an Exxon Mobil-led consortium made a “significant” oil and gas discovery in Guyana, per the country’s energy ministry. The Lancetfish-2 well is the fourth such find this year, increasing the total discoveries to 46 since 2015, with over 11 billion barrels recoverable.
Most discoveries are in Exxon’s Stabroek block, expected to yield 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027. The Lancetfish-2 find adds an estimated 20 meters of hydrocarbon-rich reservoir and 81 meters of additional hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone.
Meanwhile, the entire industry has already been ripe with M&A this year. Not only has ExxonMobil dealt for Pioneer, but competitor Chevron announced a $53 billion takeover of Hess this past week.
Chevron CFO Pierre Breber was cagier about whether or not they would be looking into more M&A: “We’re focused on this transaction. It’s a big transaction . . . we’ll focus on executing this one well.”
CEO Mike Wirth told Financial Timesthat Chevron is “investing to profitably grow our traditional and new energy businesses to drive superior value for shareholders”.
Israel Says “Ground Forces Expanding Operations Tonight” As Gaza Comms, Internet Cut
Update(1340ET): Over the last hour there have been widespread reports that communications to the Gaza have been externally cut, and minutes ago Israel’s military (IDF) spokesman has confirmed that ground forces are expanding their operations tonight, and simultaneously Gazans are being told to immediately evacuate the north and go to the south of the Strip. “Ground forces are expanding the ground activity this evening,” the IDF affirmed. Below is more of the statement from military spox, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari:
“The Air Force is striking underground targets very significantly,” he says, adding that ground forces will “expand” their activity tonight.
For the last two days, IDF infantry forces and tanks have conducted limited raids into the Gaza Strip. Hagari says the IDF will continue to strike Gaza City and surrounding areas in northern Gaza, and renews his call for Palestinians to evacuate to the Strip’s south.
“We are prepared to defend in all arenas. We are acting in order to protect the security interests of the State of Israel,” he says.
Currently broad swathes of Gaza are without electricity, water, or easily available food or medical supplies. Hospitals say they are on the their last batches of fuel to run generators. Al Shifa hospital, Gaza’s largest, is being threatened with aerial attack.
The Palestinian Telecommunications Company has confirmed “cessation of all communications and internet services” within the Gaza Strip.
The “this is it moment” and anticipation of the ground invasion is spooking markets, with oil and gold climbing…
Gold ripping…
By all accounts, the last several hours have witnessed the fiercest barrage of airstrikes on Gaza since the war begun in the wake of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack.
Al Jazeera LIVE FEED & coverage:
* * *
Update(1200ET): Friday has witnessed a flurry of premature ‘ceasefire imminent’ headlines which have turned out not to be true, at least by all other indicators, most especially the ground situation and the fact that Israel’s airstrikes have only stepped up in the last 48 hours. Israeli officials have rejected these false starts. For example, Doha-based Al Jazeera seems intent on presenting Qatar as the unsung ‘peace’ hero in all of this, while claiming that—
Al Jazeera sources say negotiations, mediated by Qatar, on a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas are “progressing and at an advanced stage”.
And yet, inbound rocket sirens continue to blare across southern Israel on Friday, and in the Strip IDF aerial forces are blasting away at Hamas HQ’s and locations. What’s more is there are reports saying Israel has increased its warnings for Al Shifa Hospital to be evacuated, which is Gaza’s largest medical complex.
Regional war correspondent Levent Kemal is being widely cited, who said, “Local Palestinian sources report that Israel has notified that it will strike all units of the Shifa Hospital.” A series of IDF public statements on Friday strongly suggest Israel is preparing military action against the hospital, saying that Hamas intentionally places military sites at the hospital and under the ground:
Hamas operates within and hides beneath the largest hospital in Gaza.
Their priorities are clear—and the people of Gaza are not among them. pic.twitter.com/7M4ZqjFyYs
Hamas has denied and condemned the Israeli charge that it’s effectively using the hospital as a giant human shield:
On Friday, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that “terrorists move freely in Al-Shifa hospital” in Gaza City, adding that it was being used to run part of Hamas’ command and control centre.
The Palestinian group strongly denied the claims on Friday.
“We categorically affirm the falsehood of the Israeli occupation’s story about the use of Al-Shifa Hospital for military purposes, or the presence of any Hamas leadership in it,” the group said in a statement.
“We call on the UN and Arab and Islamic countries to intervene immediately to stop the madness of bombing and destroying medical facilities,” it added.
In short, there’s been a lot of big claims on the diplomatic front in the last several hours, but with nothing materializing – and IDF and Hamas statements pointing to the opposite…
As we noted earlier, there’s little in these developments that looks very “trucey” at all…
Oil is starting to recover from the ‘Truce Imminent’ headline slump…
* * *
Oil and gold prices are sliding after a series of headlines hit this morning suggesting a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war is imminent.
Qatar-based Al-Jazeera says, quoting sources it didn’t name, that the Qatar-mediated negotiations are progressing “quickly” to achieve a “cease-fire” agreement and a hostage exchange deal between Israel and Hamas.
‘War premia’ are leaking out of gold…
…and oil is giving back gains after rallying overnight as the US conducted strikes on two Iran-linked facilities in Syria, reanimating investor concerns of a wider conflict and disrupt crude supplies….
However, putting the oil move in context…
…suggests the oil market is not fully believing the headline.
This doesn’t look very “ceasefirey”…
Some of the heaviest strikes I’ve seen against northern Gaza since the war began. pic.twitter.com/PobwbNIYKW
Additionally, and perhaps more notably, Reuters reports that Qatar told the United States that it was open to reconsidering Hamas’s presence on its territory, a senior US official said on Friday, once the crisis over scores of hostages kidnapped by the militant group is resolved.
The understanding, which was first reported by the Washington Post, was reached during a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, when the top US diplomat was visiting Doha earlier this month, the official said.
Elon Musk envisions X as an all-encompassing financial platform, embracing every aspect of users’ financial lives, from money and securities to eliminating the need for traditional bank accounts…
Elon Musk-owned X (formerly Twitter) aims to position itself as a central financial hub, encouraging individuals to consider using it as their primary financial solution instead of traditional bank accounts.
According to a report by The Verge, during an all-hands meeting on Oct. 26, Musk expressed his vision for transforming the platform into a financial hub, with a roadmap to implement new features by the end of 2024.
Musk envisions X as an all-encompassing financial platform, covering every aspect of users’ financial lives, from money and securities to eliminating the need for traditional bank accounts.
According to reports, Musk referred to his creation of the PayPal platform during the meeting. Musk co-founded X.com – originally conceived as a comprehensive financial platform – which was subsequently acquired by PayPal.
Future 𝕏 company talks will be live-streamed so the public can watch too
Musk is taking a hands-on approach at X, overseeing all feature development and strategizing premium offerings. The focus is not only on revenue generation but also on positioning X as a versatile, all-round platform for users.
According to Bloomberg, Musk revealed that online platforms such as YouTube, LinkedIn and Cision PR Newswire are seen as potential competitors to X as it progresses toward becoming an all-in-one app.
Musk and X CEO Linda Yaccarino unveiled a strategy to introduce a news wire service named XWire, positioning it as a potential competitor to Cision.
X has gained recognition as a primary platform for news development and discussions, but more details of X’s competitive services against YouTube, LinkedIn and Cision have yet to be revealed.
“Abrupt Change Is Coming”: Tucker Carlson Issues Dire Warning For America
Tucker Carlson delivered a sobering speech this week in which he offered a straightforward, chilling notion: That “Abrupt change is coming.”
Carlson begins by laying out the significant disconnect between Washington DC and the average American citizen’s struggles – particularly how skyrocketing food inflation and housing inaccessibility for the younger generation, is fermenting a dangerous brew of widespread public disenchantment.
Thanks to political deecisions such as draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the nation has been left vulnerable to deeper economic shocks. The public sentiment, particularly in rural areas, echoes this anticipation of a looming financial crisis, making the societal divide even more palpable.
“If something really dramatic in your country happens, like young people can’t get married, you know, or buy houses, or have any hope for a future that approaches the middle-class upbringing they had, then you’ve got a huge problem, and someone should be responding to that.”
“One thing Americans are not used to is being poor…but what if we ran out of money at the very same moment that American society is more fractured, our social fabric is in tatters, and we’ve let in millions upon millions of people who have no affinity for the United States,” Carlson posited. “If your economy is like on the brink of collapse, you know, if your country is literally bankrupt, someone would say that, and if food inflation gets so crazy that people are actually complaining about it… it doesn’t make me an expert on the people or anything, but I do live among people who aren’t rich, and they’re like legit upset about what groceries cost.”
Surveillance Overreach and the erosion of Civil Liberties
Drawing parallels with East German surveillance tactics, Carlson slammed the measures the state employs under the guise of national security. This overreach, he warned, erodes the personal freedoms of citizens, setting the stage to foment civil unrest and potential authoritarian control, under which genuine public grievances are suppressed rather than addressed.
“When your country is at war, civil liberties disappear, and we saw this in the last 20-year war on terror, and I supported all that stuff, and I have egg on my face. I’m worse than that; I’m ashamed of the measures that I supported,” Carlson said, adding that there are “angry people who feel like they have no recourse, who don’t think elections are real… they have real grievances, legit grievances, and the only way to tone those grievances down is not by creating some East German surveillance state, which we have done, or throwing people in prison for loitering outside the capital, which is their house after all. That doesn’t work long term.”
Bomb bomb Iran…
Carlson also cautioned over diving headfirst into a conflict with Iran if the Hamas-Israel war becomes a wider conflict.
“I have no love for Iran, and I can certainly see why people want to attack Iran. All I’m asking is just to put one person on TV to point out that there are consequences to the United States that may not be entirely positive to doing this,” he said.
And to that end, let’s stop sending taxpayer dollars to fight proxy wars that don’t benefit the American public.
“Abrupt change is coming, and that’s very, very disconcerting. And so, rather than reassure people, that you know, we kind of got your back a little bit, by the way, we’re going to spend a hundred billion dollars on other people,” Carlson continued.
A Nation Divided
Perhaps most striking was Carlson’s reflection on the internal fragmentation within the U.S. The current socio-political environment has nurtured a population divided, marked by an influx of individuals who may lack any profound loyalty to the country, further straining social cohesion. This scenario is a ticking time bomb, especially if economic destabilization were to strike a nation now unfamiliar with profound poverty and lacking a united front.
Carlson also highlights the fragility of a nation that, on the surface, appears robust and stable. Beneath this facade, according to Carlson, are brewing discontent and potential chaos, exacerbated by leaders who seem to prioritize peripheral issues over the imminent threats to national stability.
“The moral duty of the people running a country is to look out for the people in that country, period. That’s always true, and it doesn’t mean they can’t help other people, but if they pay no attention whatsoever, and in a moment when every person…can feel that something bad’s coming, everybody knows that.”
In short: Unless there is a significant shift in how America’s leaders approach these glaring issues, the United States might be unrecognizable in the aftermath of the “abrupt change” Carlson is warning about.
Watch:
You can say you care about America, but if you’re sending $100 billion to foreign countries right now, you’re lying. pic.twitter.com/jFmBlAW3qG
