Awkward: DC Mayor U-Turns ‘Defund Police’ With New Crime Bill After Murder Chaos Spreads
How it started.
How it’s going?
The Addressing Crime Trends Now Act will create an environment that better supports communities and victims as well as MPD’s ability to hire and retain highly qualified officers.
Washington, DC, Mayor Muriel Bowser will finally enforce ‘law and order’ or some variant after her disastrous progressive ‘defund the police’ policies have transformed the nation’s capital into a crime-ridden hellhole.
On Monday, Bowser revealed a new anti-crime bill, the Addressing Crime Trends (ACT) Now Act, which seeks to end out-of-control retail theft, open-air drug markets, surge in violent crime, and slap criminals with additional charges for wearing masks.
“Metropolitan Police Department continues to be a leader in fair and constitutional policing across this nation. They continue to work every day to have and keep the trust of our city. And this legislation won’t change that. It will, however, support the department in dealing with some of the negative consequences of the Comprehensive Police Adjustment and Injustice Amendment Act. Some of the changes that were made just don’t match the daily practice of safe and effective policing,” Bowser said while revealing ACT.
However, officials told Bloomberg that the ACT’s goal is not to entirely reverse the DC Council’s progressive priorities but to dial back some of the radical reforms. The DC Council is expected to vote on the proposed legislation soon.
This year, the nation’s capital has recorded a surge in violent crimes: Homicides hit the highest level in two decades in the first six months, and carjackings are out of control. Several lawmakers and staffers have been robbed.
DC’s U-turn on failed progressive policies is yet another metro area that is being forced to restore law and order. San Francisco had to reverse course a few months ago.
Meanwhile, Democrats take zero accountability for their disastrous progressive policies. And so be it. The exodus out of cities by law-abiding citizens and companies only leads to a revival of suburbia. Let the cities implode on themselves as fiscal budgets are set to be strained. NYC is learning through budget cuts.
Hamas’s terror attack on Israel is having ripple effects around the world, and the porous U.S. borders are again in the spotlight.
“The same terrorists that just carried out this horrific attack in Israel—their hatred and their unwavering commitment … to do harm to the United States, is alive and well,” Mark Morgan, who served as acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection during the Trump administration, told The Epoch Times.
“Nobody in their right mind can say that our border is secure.”
There’s a real concern that terrorists have already crossed the U.S. border, particularly within the group of more than 1.6 million illegal immigrants who evaded Border Patrol upon entry and are unknown to officials, Mr. Morgan said.
In the past 11 months, 151 people on the terror watchlist have been arrested by Border Patrol after crossing illegally, while tens of thousands of other “special interest aliens” have entered and been released, he said. “Special interest” means that they hail from countries with direct ties to state-sponsored terrorist groups, including Yemen, Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, and Pakistan.
Another terror attack inside the United States like the 2013 Boston bombing or the 2015 San Bernardino, California, mass shooting and attempted bombing, is imminent, Mr. Morgan warned.
“It’s coming. It’s coming. No one can predict, but what I will say is, there could already be a cell in the United States planning the next terrorist attack, and we would have no idea,” he said. “That’s a fair statement; that’s not hyperbolic.”
Terror concerns in the United States are escalating, especially as thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets around the country.
FBI Director Chris Wray, in a speech to the International Association of Chiefs of Police in San Diego on Oct. 14, encouraged law enforcement officers to stay vigilant.
“You’re often the first to see the signs that someone may be mobilizing to violence,” he said.
“In this heightened environment, there’s no question we’re seeing an increase in reported threats, and we’ve got to be on the lookout, especially for lone actors who may take inspiration from recent events to commit violence of their own.”
Meanwhile, the FBI issued a statement on Oct. 9, saying that it doesn’t have “specific and credible intelligence indicating a threat to the United States stemming from the Hamas attacks.”
The lack of intelligence may not mean a lot, because the attack on Israel showed a “colossal intelligence failure,” Mr. Morgan, who also served as an FBI agent for 20 years, said.
He said that a terror event such as Hamas’s attack that killed 1,400 Israelis, including children, on Oct. 7 can serve as a trigger event.
“We have people in our own country that are actually supporting Hamas, supporting the actions of babies being decapitated, of being burned alive, of women being savagely raped and videotaped,” Mr. Morgan said.
“When you have this deep-rooted, irrational ideology, to be inspired to move to radicalization, then action can be very quick. Generally, it takes an event—and we have that now.”
Hamas sympathizers brandishing Palestinian flags stood outside of the White House on Oct. 14 chanting “Free Palestine.” Some demonstrators wore head and face coverings commonly associated with jihadist groups.
National security lawyer and regional analyst Irina Tsukerman said much the same about the threat that Hamas agents pose to the United States.
“There is significant pro-Hamas support in the United States already, both among leftist radicals and apologists in academia, and Palestinian activists and their allies, such as the crowds rallying with Hamas in various big cities around the United States in the past few days,” she told The Epoch Times.
Ms. Tsukerman said she disagrees with the FBI’s Oct. 9 statement that suggests there’s no current specific threat to the United States.
“The FBI is wrong. Khaled Meshaal called for his supporters to attack Western and other targets. … That could well include the United States or at least Jewish and Israeli targets in the United States,” she said.
Mr. Meshaal is the former chief of Hamas. In a cryptic recording sent to international media outlets, initially reported by Reuters on Oct. 11, the terrorist commander said, “To all scholars who teach jihad … to all who teach and learn, this is a moment for the application [of theories].”
On Oct. 8, an Iran proxy terrorist group called Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS) warned the United States against getting involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
“Palestine is not Ukraine,” the terror group stated.
“Any direct American entrance into the conflict for the crumbling entity [Israel] will make all American positions in the region legitimate targets.”
The fanatical group is one of many through which Iran pushes its political agenda in the region. Another one of these is Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is reportedly holding an Israeli captive amid the newest conflict with Hamas.
Like Hamas and KSS, Hezbollah is an Iranian-funded Islamic terrorist group. In 2020, the U.S. State Department stated that Iran provides $100 million in annual aid to Hamas and another $700 million to Hezbollah.
However, while most of these organizations’ actions are limited to the Middle East, Hezbollah has terrorist cells operating in the Americas.
Wave of Mobilization
In Latin America, Hezbollah has quietly been putting down roots for decades, and the U.S. government is aware of it.
“It is important to note that the relationship Hezbollah has developed with criminal and terrorist groups in Latin America has escalated from one of mutual accommodation and benefit in the spheres of money laundering, contraband, and financing to more direct and deadly forms of collaboration,” a 2012 U.S. Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence report noted.
On Sept. 12, the U.S. Department of Treasury enacted sanctions on three people associated with Hezbollah’s illicit financial activities in Latin America.
Emmer Drops Out Of House Speaker Race After Trump Calls ‘RINO’, Supporters Bail
Update (1640ET): House GOP chaos continues after Rep. Tim Emmer (R-MN) – who earlier in the day won an internal ballot for nominee – dropped out, CNBC reports.
Emmer won the GOP nomination over House GOP Vice Chairman Mike Johnson (La.) in a secret ballot 117-97, but in a secondary roll call vote 26 Republicans voted present or for another person, according to House GOP Conference Secretary Lisa McClain (R-Mich.).
If all members vote present and for a specific candidate, Emmer could only afford to lose four Republicans and still win the Speakership on the House floor.
Emmer’s withdrawal after a group of Republicans made clear they wouldn’t back him on the House floor. The move also come after former President Trump called Emmer a “RINO,” and said that voting for him “would be a tragic mistake.”
* * *
After kicking Jim Jordan (R-OH) down an elevator shaft, House Republicans have elected majority whip Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) as the GOP speaker nominee on thefifth ballot in an internal race which drew nine Republican candidates.
Emmer’s nomination now moves to the House floor, where he will need at least 217 votes to pass.
The other caandidates were Reps. Jack Bergman, Mich.; Byron Donalds, Fla.; Tom Emmer, Minn., Kevin Hern, Okla., Mike Johnson, La.; Gary Palmer, Ala.; Austin Scott, Ga.; and Pete Sessions, Texas.
As Just the News notes, Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) dropped out of the race Monday evening, while Palmer dropped out Tuesday.
Each candidate signed a unity pledge to support the speaker nominee on the House floor – however it doesn’t appear that he’ll have the votes needed at this stage.
According to the report, the top four candidates on the first, second and third ballot were reportedly Emmer, Johnson, Donalds and Hern.
The GOP-controlled lower chamber has been without a speaker for nearly three weeks after Rep. Kevin McCarthy was ousted after 8 GOP members joined with Democrats.
According to Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), there’s a “level of exhaustion setting in” the GOP conference.
“I think there’s like, maybe more accurately, a sense of gravity given the many things we have to get done over the next two months, ranging from defense appropriations to dealing with a supplemental FISA reform and the Farm Bill,” he said, referring to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) – who refused to back Jim Jordan, said that after the nominee is chosen, “Then we got to figure out will people consolidate behind the leader, and they should. I hope they do.”
WTI Lifts Off One-Week Lows After Surprise Crude/Gasoline Draw
Oil closed at the lowest in more than a week amid signs the crude market’s tightness has slackened and the Israel-Hamas war will remain contained for the time being.
“Crude is battling the trifecta of headwinds today,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.
“Geopolitical risks are easing modestly, physical indicators are softening and the US dollar is rising. Much of the recent length in the market has been driven by retail buying, which tends to be short-term, event-driven traders.”
API
Crude -2.688mm (+10k exp)
Cushing +513k
Gasoline -4.169mm (-300k exp) – biggest draw since March
Distillates -2.313mm (-1.1mm exp)
A surprise build at the Cushing hub was offset by draws for crude and products with gasoline stocks tumbling most since March….
Source: Bloomberg
WTI was hovering just above $83.50 ahead of the print and popped modestly after…
The lack of any immediate supply disruptions in the Middle East, the source of about of a third of the world’s crude, has eroded most of the war’s risk premium. WTI is only 1.1% higher than before the Oct. 7 attack. Still, the possibility remains of Washington ramping up compliance checks on sanctioned Iranian oil and Tehran disrupting key shipping routes.
Alphabet Plunges 6% After Google Cloud Results Disappoint
The big question into Alphabet’s earnings was what, if any, progress they had made on monetizing the AI promise without cannibalizing the company’s main moneymaker – search advertising; and just how much capex they blew on NVDA chips to feed the LLM-processing beast.
So how did Alphabet do? A quick look at the results reveals a top and bottom line beat:
Google other revenue $8.34 billion, beating estimates $7.94 billion
Other Bets revenue $297 million, beating estimates $258.8 million
So far so good… but the one thing the market did not like at all, and is the reason why the stock is tumbling after hours, is that unlike peer MSFT which is soaring out of the gate on an across the board beat, Google disappointed on Google Cloud revenues which at $8.41 billion missed estimates of $8.6 billion, despite rising notably from $6.9 billion a year ago.
Looking below the line we find a generally mixed picture:
Operating income $21.34 billion, missing estimates of $21.44 billion
Google Services operating income $23.94 billion, beating estimate $22.89 billion
Google Cloud operating income $266 million, missing estimate $433.6 million
Other Bets operating loss $1.19 billion, vs estimate loss $1.2 billion
In total, GOOGL’s operating margin of 28% missed estimate 28.1%. Finally, CapEx of $8.06 billion missed estimates of $8.81 billion
Oh, and for those counting, the number of employees dropped by about 4,000 to 182,381 from 186,779.
Commenting on the quarter, CFO Ruth Porat said that “the fundamental strength of our business was apparent again in Q3, with $77 billion in revenue, up 11% year over year, driven by meaningful growth in Search and YouTube, and momentum in Cloud. We continue to focus on judicious capital allocation to deliver sustainable financial value.”
And while we wait to see how many time CEO Sundar Pichai will mention AI and try to capitalize on the stupidity of headline scanning AI algos, it’s hardly surprising that he too was quite laudatory of his company’s numbers, saying that he is “pleased with our financial results and our product momentum this quarter, with AI -driven innovations across Search, YouTube, Cloud, our Pixel devices and more. We’re continuing to focus on making AI more helpful for everyone; there’s exciting progress and lots more to come.”
Well, there are at least two mentions… only this time the magic is gone and while Sunday may be pleased, the market isn’t and the stock is tumbling 7% after hours,
Microsoft Soars As ‘Everything Beats’, Azure Growth Re-Accelerates
Microsoft shares are soaring after hours following a top- and bottom-line beat
Revenue was $56.5 billion (better than the expected $54.54 billion) and increased 13% (up 12% in constant currency).
Diluted earnings per share was $2.99 (better than the $2.65 expected) and increased 27% (up 26% in constant currency).
Under the hood, all the segments beat expectations…
*MICROSOFT 1Q PRODUCTIVITY REV $18.59B, EST. $18.29B
*MICROSOFT 1Q MORE PERSONAL COMPUTING REV. $13.67B, EST. $12.89B
…but heavily AI-exposed intelligent cloud unit was the highlight.
*MICROSOFT 1Q CLOUD REV. $31.8B, EST. $31.19B
*MICROSOFT 1Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $24.26B, EST. $23.61B
With growth re-accelerating…
No wonder Pichai is smiling…
“With copilots, we are making the age of AI real for people and businesses everywhere,” said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.
“We are rapidly infusing AI across every layer of the tech stack and for every role and business process to drive productivity gains for our customers.”
Revenue just from Azure jumped 29% during the quarter, faster than the 26% consensus, and above the 27% last quarter..
“Consistent execution by our sales teams and partners drove a strong start to the fiscal year with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $31.8 billion, up 24% (up 23% in constant currency) year-over-year,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.
It would appear – at first glance – that MSFT is beating GOOGL at the AI/Cloud game as the former beat and the latter missed.
Ethereum also rallied early on but gave a lot of its gains back, as ETH relative to BTC plunged back near Jun 2022 spike lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were stronger overnight – because WW3 hadn’t started – then ramped on better than expected PMIs (see here for that malarkey) but that stalled into the European close sending stocks all the way to unchanged and to the lows of the day. From there they bounced with Nasdaq leading the charge ahead of tonight’s GOOGL, MSFT earnings…
The S&P broke back below its 200DMA, but found support…
Thanks in large part to a giant short squeeze at the open…
VIX was clubbed a baby seal once again, back down to almost an 18 handle from above 23 at Monday’s open….
As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott notes:“The Vol selling in Equities Options space has continued at an unrelenting pace these past 2 sessions, as funds look to exploit the recently “rich” VRP off the back of 1) the shock FCI tightening risking a “cycle-turn,” 2) geopol stress “fat tails” and 3) the legacy VIX Dealer “short upside convexity” problem which has made Index iVol so suddenly “squeezy,” evidenced by recent “extreme VIX Beta to SPX” and Vol of Vol.”
Bonds were mixed on the day with the long-end outperforming (30Y -5bps, 2Y +5bps), which leaves the 2Y yield alone higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The 30Y yield closed back below 5.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
Which, obviously, flattened the yield curve dramatically with 2s30s now inverted again…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar bounced hard off its pre-CPI lows, erasing all of yesterday’s tumble…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was basically flat on the day (in USD) but not in JPY where it reached a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil was pummeled ahead of tonight’s API data, because WW3 never erupted?
As Bloomberg’s Eddie Spence notes, gold’s explosive rally since Hamas’s attack on Israel has moved in tandem with oil prices, a sign some traders are hedging against stagflation.
The 15-day correlation between spot bullion and Brent crude is now at the highest in over a year. The relationship between the two commodities typically strengthens when oil begins to spike.
Finally, are stocks starting to catch down to central bank balance sheet realities?
Source: Bloomberg
…or will The Fed (et al.) pivot to QE before that gaping spread compresses from above?
The BOJ Pain Threshold Is Near, If Not Already Reached
By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist
Shorter-dated volatility expressions in Japan’s currency markets may be underpricing the risk of sharp moves in the yen ahead of this month’s central bank review.
For instance, the two-week implied volatility on USD/JPY is hovering around 8%, well dwarfed by the successive peaks we saw through much of last year as the currency wobbled.
Yet, there is a sense of immediacy coming out of the Bank of Japan with regards to its curve-control experiment, just hours after the central bank intervened in the bond market.
Among them:
Bank of Japan officials “are likely to monitor bond yield movements until the last minute before making a decision on whether to adjust the yield curve control program.”
Implicit in that wording is the suggestion that the central bank may be ready to adjust its curve control before next week’s decision, should push come to a shove. That may be especially so should the functioning of the bond market worsen.
As noted here, there comes a point in any intervention where the tipping point is determined not by the amount of money spent in defense of a policy but by the dislocations that it spawns. And the BOJ sources story suggests that the pain threshold is near, if not already reached.
While an end to negative rates may still be away, a shift in curve control may come sooner than markets reckon.
After kicking Jim Jordan (R-OH) down an elevator shaft, House Republicans have elected majority whip Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) as the GOP speaker nominee on thefifth ballot in an internal race which drew nine Republican candidates.
Emmer’s nomination now moves to the House floor, where he will need at least 217 votes to pass.
The other caandidates were Reps. Jack Bergman, Mich.; Byron Donalds, Fla.; Tom Emmer, Minn., Kevin Hern, Okla., Mike Johnson, La.; Gary Palmer, Ala.; Austin Scott, Ga.; and Pete Sessions, Texas.
As Just the News notes, Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) dropped out of the race Monday evening, while Palmer dropped out Tuesday.
Each candidate signed a unity pledge to support the speaker nominee on the House floor – however it doesn’t appear that he’ll have the votes needed at this stage.
According to the report, the top four candidates on the first, second and third ballot were reportedly Emmer, Johnson, Donalds and Hern.
The GOP-controlled lower chamber has been without a speaker for nearly three weeks after Rep. Kevin McCarthy was ousted after 8 GOP members joined with Democrats.
According to Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), there’s a “level of exhaustion setting in” the GOP conference.
“I think there’s like, maybe more accurately, a sense of gravity given the many things we have to get done over the next two months, ranging from defense appropriations to dealing with a supplemental FISA reform and the Farm Bill,” he said, referring to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) – who refused to back Jim Jordan, said that after the nominee is chosen, “Then we got to figure out will people consolidate behind the leader, and they should. I hope they do.”
Xi Fires Defense Minister – Second Top Official To Leave In 3 Months With No Explanation
In another mysterious major shake-up at the highest defense and political levels under Xi Jinping, China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu has been fired Tuesday, making him the second high-profile official to be sacked without any official reason offered.
It follows the surprise ouster of Foreign Minister Qin Gang in July, which was also met with intense speculation and rumors of a broader political crackdown toward ensuring total pro-Xi loyalty. In the case of now former defense chief Li Shangfu, he hadn’t been seen public since late August, after only being appointed to the post the prior March.
His removal has already been approved by the rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress, state media has confirmed. This further means Li is no longer a member of the powerful Central Military Commission. He has been under US sanctions, which Beijing had long protested and bristled at.
The NY Times has emphasized this adds to the growing rumors that this is all part of an anti-corruption crackdown, also part of stricter controls on national security, and that Li could possibly be facing formal charges:
Just four months ago, China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, was at a forum for regional officials in Singapore, serving as the face of his country’s bold vision for reshaping Asia’s balance of power. He cast China as a force for stability and accused the United States of stirring trouble in the region, suggesting that its leaders should “mind your own business.”
Now, General Li has been dismissed after nearly two months out of public view — the latest example of the capriciousness of high-level politics in China under Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader.
The report says the question is open whether or not he’s being investigated for any criminal offenses.
Additionally, NYT notes that “The removal of the defense minister also followed an abrupt shake-up in August in the leadership of China’s nuclear force, the highest-level upheaval in China’s military in recent years.”
As for the fired foreign minister Qin Gang, Western press has dubbed Qin the former “high-flying favorite” of President Xi Jinping, given he had played point man for the early in the summer important visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which was an attempt to rescue spiraling US-China relations. Qin has actually been further demoted as of this week:
CHINA REMOVES QIN GANG FROM POST OF STATE COUNCILOR – STATE MEDIA
Like the now removed defense minister, Qin’s rise had been rapid and brief. FT had pointed out in July that “Qin had a meteoric rise from his appointment as Chinese ambassador to the US in 2021 to foreign minister and a member of China’s cabinet, the State Council, in March”—but soon after “disappeared” from public view.
One question remains: is there a greater shake-up underway? It seems so, given the emerging pattern of rapid turnover in China’s most powerful and influential positions under Xi. Who is he coming for next?
