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Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns ‘World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition’ 

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Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns ‘World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition’ 

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays a pivotal role in the world’s changing energy landscape. By substituting dirtier fuels, LNG curtails carbon dioxide emissions and enhances air quality. This underscores its vital importance in the energy transition. 

Bloomberg recently spoke with Kenichi Hori, president of Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co., who said global LNG demand will likely be much higher than forecasted and the current “pipeline of projects” won’t be enough. 

“Announced projects in the world still won’t make up for the supply needed when considering the energy transition that will take several decades,” Hori said. 

Hori is one of Japan’s top traders of LNG and believes, just like Chevron Corp. and Shell Plc, that the fuel will play a crucial long-term role in the energy transition. His comments follow a fracturing of the global LNG market as Europe no longer sources a majority of the fuel from Moscow but instead relies on the US and other countries abroad.  

According to BloombergNEF data, global LNG demand is set to rise 3.4% annually over 2022-26, reaching about 444 million metric tons. This comes as countries and companies view LNG as one of the cleanest fossil fuels that can lower emissions. Bloomberg noted supply will be tight until 2026 – after that, new projects are forecasted to come online. 

Hori pointed out his firm has “projects in the US, Middle East, and Africa” to ensure a diverse supply chain. 

He added his firm is interested in signing a contract with Qatar. He stated the Middle Eastern country is an “important source of LNG” as Japan strives for further diversification. 

Besides LNG, Hori invested $6.4 billion in an offshore wind project off Taiwan and exploring opportunities in e-methanol.  

“All these projects are going to shape the future of our portfolio that is transitioning from a traditional energy business to a low-carbon-intensive era,” he said.

Last month, Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of service company Baker Hughes, was quoted by Reuters at Gastech, the industry’s largest conference in Singapore, as saying, “Natural gas will continue to play a critical role as a bridging and destination fuel for the energy transition.”

The biggest takeaway is that LNG has a bright future as it becomes the ‘transition fuel’ as the world progresses to net-zero emissions by 2050. 

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:25

Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025

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Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025

Tyson Foods Inc. is buying a stake in insect-protein company Protix BV. The two companies will collaborate to establish a manufacturing facility in the US to produce bug-based meal and oil, typically used in fish feed and dog food. 

The American meatpacker said Tuesday that it agreed to buy a stake in Dongen, Netherlands-based Protix BV to help fund its expansion. The companies will also form a joint venture to build and operate a US facility that will produce bug-based meal and oil, which are typically used in fish feed and dog food. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. —Bloomberg 

“It’s a multibillion-dollar industry opportunity that has tremendous growth potential, and we see Protix as being a leader there,” Tyson CFO John Tyson said in an interview. 

Tyson said, “In the long run, insect-protein inclusion in animal-feed diets can be a real thing that exists and can be one that is good for people, planet and animals.”

Protix already supplies insect-based protein to pet food makers Nestle SA and Mars Inc. The company was established in 2009, and the partnership with Tyson will expand operations internationally. 

“It is definitely a huge way to establish ourselves into an international context,” Protix CEO Kees Aarts said. He added the deal with Tyson is a “tipping point we have been working for.” 

Aarts said the US plant will not be ready until 2025. He said the new facility will be four times larger than its existing facility in the Netherlands. 

Slowly but surely, the World Economic Forum and major corporations appear to be resetting the global food supply chain. WEF has been very vocal about how the masses must give up beef because cow farts are polluting the air and, instead, eat insects. 

Also… 

Corporate media has been trying to convince the masses… 

In Europe, an additive made out of powdered crickets has already made its way into pizza, pasta, and cereals.  

Tyson’s foray into bug production for animal food is an ominous sign that the meat giant could also be planning edible insects for human consumption. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:45

Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery

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Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery

Authored by James Varney via RealClear Wire,

After years as a federal agent helping the Drug Enforcement Administration hunt drug lords across Central Asia, and years more teaching in Maryland classrooms, Robin Shaffer anticipated a quiet retirement watching the deep swells roll across the Atlantic and crash on to the broad Jersey Shore.

Instead, he finds himself embroiled in a fight. As a leader of a grassroots group, Protect Our Coast NJ, Shaffer, 53, is taking on an international company and politicians in Trenton backing Ocean Wind 1, a $10 billion proposal to line the Jersey Shore with 98 wind turbines whose 722-foot propeller whirls would dwarf the Washington Monument and Statue of Liberty.

It’s been an uphill battle, with the group “taking in nickels and dimes” and “selling T-shirts and magnets.” The local press seems indifferent to their cause, he said, noting that no outlets covered a public meeting he held at a pub, perhaps fittingly, with “Cheers” and “Frasier” actor Kelsey Grammer, one of Hollywood’s few prominent conservatives.

“There’s this argument made that we must be bought off, sort of, ‘Why fight the Green Revolution? Don’t you care about the environment?’” Shaffer said. “But we don’t have any corporate sponsors or major funding. It’s very much a David vs. Goliath kind of thing.”

Protect Our Coast NJ, an all-volunteer outfit with a budget of less than $100,000, is one example of an overwhelming disparity that has emerged in the debate over the aggressive push for renewable energy in response to what President Biden calls the “existential threat” of climate change. While once upon a time there may have been scrappy environmentalists combating the corporate might of Big Oil, major fossil fuel producers and conservative philanthropies provide little supporting research challenging climate change, Shaffer and other people interviewed for this article said. As a result, the money and the muscle and the lawyers are now aligned with what they call Big Green.

Government largesse, shot into the stratosphere by hundreds of taxpayer billions President Biden shoveled to green energy companies and backers through the Inflation Reduction Act, is just the crest of this wave of momentum on behalf of a “climate emergency.”

Powering the apparent juggernaut are philanthropists who have donated billions, corporate sponsors of environmental groups that look like a who’s who of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, attorneys at white-shoe firms and Ivy League law schools, prosecutors paid privately but operating under a district attorney’s umbrella, along with media and academics who hammer the narrative home.

“This whole movement is pushed by a small but very powerful elite that controls Washington and the media, but not the way your average American thinks,” said William Happer, an emeritus physics professor at Princeton University who founded the CO2 Coalition in 2015 to advance the argument that global warming is not an existential threat.

“You think, ‘What can you do?’” Happer said. “They have the media under control, they have politicians, professional and scientific groups and publications are controlled by them, and it’s all driven by money.”

The corporate sponsors of the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), for instance, include titans of tech and private enterprise such as Amazon, Google, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Meta and others. Google is also working with the Sierra Club, while the Environmental Defense Fund lists General Electric and DuPont as allies on its website.

Liberal billionaire Michael Bloomberg pledged another $500 million to kill the coal industry in September, a massive injection of cash that brings to more than $1 billion the amount he has committed to his Beyond Carbon launched in 2019. Another $1.1 billion was pledged by liberal venture capitalist John Doerr to build a climate change school at Stanford University, and Tom Steyer, like Bloomberg a former Democrat presidential candidate, has put millions of his billions behind similar global warming initiatives.

Shaffer said Protect Our Coast is hiring attorneys he hopes “will do a good job,” but powerful lawyers are already aligned with the “climate emergency” camp. Since 2009 Columbia University Law School has had a Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, while the venerable New York firm of Shearman & Sterling, with 850 attorneys, is partnered with ACORE.

Whether Shearman & Sterling offers ACORE anything beyond financial backing is unclear; neither responded to a request for comment from RealClearInvestigations. Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center, says its attorneys do not see themselves as activists working on behalf of environmentalists but rather partners in the push for a renewable energy future.

“The Sabin Center conducts legal analysis and supports strong action on climate change,” Gerrard said. “The Sabin Center does not file lawsuits, but it often files amicus briefs and comment letters.”

In all cases, he noted, the center is “in support of such [renewable energy] facilities, and opposing those who are against such facilities – typically municipalities, and sometimes NIMBY groups.”

A Who’s Who of Wall Street and Silicon Valley

The David vs. Goliath dynamic is compounded by government funding. Academic grants, scientific funding, and now, through the Inflation Reduction Act, U.S. taxpayer money for the environment go almost exclusively to what advocates characterize as green energy projects. Ultimately, the Inflation Reduction Act, which supporters predicted would cost taxpayers $391 billion, will likely cost some $1.2 trillion, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.  

Just how much the U.S. government spends on global warming research is nearly impossible to calculate, since money comes from so many different departments. The Government Accounting Office, which conducts research at the behest of members of Congress, has not looked at the subject since 2018, when it calculated the cost had been $13.2 billion in the previous decade. 

That money flows almost exclusively to those who support the climate emergency argument. 

It’s real. If you were to submit a proposal to the federal government – whether it’s NSF, NOAA or NASA – that was challenging the narrative, you would not have much chance at all of getting funded,” said former Obama energy official Steven Koonin, a theoretical physicist and engineering professor at New York University. “Whereas if you wrote a proposal that supported the narrative, you’re in.” 

RCI sought comment from all three of the federal agencies Koonin mentioned. Only NASA acknowledged receipt of the questions; none has responded.

Judith Curry, a prominent skeptic of apocalyptic warnings regarding climate change and a former professor at Georgia Tech, looked at academe’s politicization and dependence on government financing in her book, “Climate Uncertainty and Risk.”

“Power politics by activist scientists to advance a clear political agenda has inflamed and polarized the climate change debate within the community of climate scientists,” Curry told RCI. “Calls for proposals from the federal funding agencies implicitly assume the dominance of human-caused global warming. Hence scientists have little motivation to work on anything else. The end result is research that analyzes the results of climate model simulations to infer dire societal consequences.”

Tarred as Shills for Big Oil

Despite the disparity in funding and resources, climate emergency skeptics are often dismissed as shills for energy companies. Yet the CO2 Coalition, for example, includes Happer, a member of the National Academy of Science; John Clausen, who won the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics; and Patrick Moore, a co-founder and former director of Greenpeace.

A cursory web search on the Coalition turns up multiple stories of how it once received $1 million from ExxonMobil and articles about Happer’s brief stint with the Trump administration, all couched in language suggesting the Coalition’s work is biased.

Regardless of where the grant originated, $1 million is a paltry sum in the context of global warming largesse. In September alone those pushing the idea that global warming presents an existential threat stood to get 2,000 times that amount just from Bloomberg and a pledge from the liberal Rockefeller Foundation to spend $1 billion “to advance climate solutions.” Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and owner of The Washington Post, has pledged up to $10 billion for his Earth Fund.

In addition, the big energy companies appear to have largely stopped funding research challenging the climate emergency narrative, in some cases bending to the prevailing winds – or solar rays or what have you – of political expediency.

“Where is this oil money people talk about? I wish I could get some,” said Anthony Watts, who runs the Watts Up With That website. “ExxonMobil hasn’t the faintest idea who I am. The notion energy company money has corrupted any of the findings that run counter to the approved narrative on global warming is a fallacy designed to support the tribalism in the field.”

RCI reached out to numerous major energy companies. ExxonMobil asked for specific questions, which a spokeswoman did not answer, and the others did not respond.

Watts has run his site, which dubs itself “the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change,” since 2006. In that time, the issue of global warming has gone from a computer model theory to “settled science” to a “climate emergency,” and the money and power has grown accordingly, he said.

“I thought, when I started, if I demonstrated biases in the temperature readings – significant biases – there would be a correction, because it’s science, there would be this ‘we got this wrong, let’s fix this,’ thinking,” he said. “But it has morphed from its infancy of studying numbers and data to some big business conglomerate.”

Watts has experienced firsthand how social media helps frame global warming as a looming catastrophe. Despite his site’s viewership, he says, it was “demonetized” by WordAds, which enables ads to be run on WordPress websites. There was no specific post cited for violating any terms, according to Watts, but WordPress notified him the fees would no longer be collected after Google announced “they were removing ad services from all climate skeptic cites.”

Wildly Inflated Numbers

Similar institutional moves, along with the marked funding disparities, have largely muffled the arguments made by those who disagree with the “climate emergency” conclusion.

“The truth is, we are essentially a grassroots movement of people who don’t believe a crisis exists, certainly not one worth destroying the economy of the world,” he said.

The uneven playing field marks a change. Almost a decade ago, progressives such as New Yorker writer Jane Mayer – author of “Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right” – were warning of secret networks funding climate change denial. There is no database aggregating funding for such groups, though progressive scholars have published research highlighting what they admit are wildly inflated numbers. A 2018 paper published in the journal Climactic Change, titled “Obstructing Action: Foundation Funding and U.S. Climate Change Counter-movement Organizations,” reports billions in grants between 2003-2018, though its authors note “we cannot ascertain that any particular grant supports activities directly related to climate change unless specifically stated on the grant records.” Instead, they add the gross totals of all contributions to conservative organizations they consider climate skeptics, such as Americans for Prosperity, the Reason Foundation, the Federalist Society, and the Manhattan Institute.

Conservative groups mentioned in the article, such as the Heritage Foundation and the Heartland Foundation, continue to publish critiques of global warming alarmism. But representatives noted their budgets are divided among many policy silos and they do not have the corporate backing enjoyed by the climate emergency camp. In 2023, Heritage said its budget grew to $100 million as part of a major fundraising initiative, but in the past it has usually operated with around $80 million annually.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of energy, climate and the environment at Heritage, noted that it gets “less than 5 percent of its money from corporate sponsors and no company contributes more than 1 percent.” And that money is spread out over various departments so that only a fraction of it is devoted to combatting the alarmist global warming narrative, she said.

Climate skeptics says such figures are laughable.  

“We have comparatively few dollars while the other side now literally has trillions,” said Steve Milloy, who operates the Junk Science website, pointing to money that European countries, the U.N., and other bodies have given for global warming research or to prop up green energy companies with loans and tax credits.

Others in the trenches, more or less, echoed Shaffer’s experience in New Jersey.

“We are up against sleazy lawyers and lobbyists and a fancy propaganda campaign every time,” said Kevin Emmerich, whose grassroots Basin and Range Watch has gone up against major solar projects in Nevada. “The big solar and wind projects that end up being the ones we fight are all being proposed by the companies who have the most money. They have the money to lobby congress and pay big lawyers. They also tend to buy out little towns.”

As lone laptop warrior operations like Milloy’s and Watts’s attest, whatever money that flows to skeptical camps to tar the other side is slight. The same appears to be true on the international scene, as the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a group that seeks to counter the notion that wrenching changes to Western economies are needed to combat global warming, reports an annual budget of roughly $475,000 in 2022. The Sierra Club alone had a budget of $151 million that year.

Companies have to a large extent begun to infuse environmental activists with cash as a form of “greenwashing,” said Furchtgott-Roth. The alarmist camp has become so hostile and flush that is simply easier for corporations to avoid potential problems.

Role Reversal

“It’s no longer just an ideological fight where one group of people may have the better view,” she said. “This has become a matter of theological importance, they see this as a matter of good vs. evil.”

For now, the role of scrappy opponent, once held by environmentalists, has switched to opponents of massive “green” energy projects. Small players like Protect Our Coast NJ take some solace in the rising costs of such projects which has delayed the launch of Ocean 1 until 2026. The group drew more than 100 people – but only one reporter – to a recent event marred by a downpour. Shaffer, pointing to polling that shows support for the project has plummeted in New Jersey, vows to keep up the fight.

Despite obvious attempts by the Fourth Estate to ignore the efforts of thousands of New Jerseyans to protect the marine ecosystem and the Jersey Shore, our message is getting out,” he said.

That message will win in the end even with the lopsided nature of the debate, Happer predicted. He compares the current landscape to what prevailed with the eugenics movement a century ago.

“Every little town had its ‘Eugenics Society,’ decent white ladies got together to drink tea and discuss it, the presidents of Harvard and Princeton, the scientific journals – the whole ‘Establishment’ believed in eugenics,” Happer said. “It was all nonsense, of course, and ended when Germany took eugenics to its logical conclusion. Now, some unfortunate county or state will implement all this and the people will rise up in fury, the policies are so crazy people will simply rebel. It happens again and again in human history when something seems invincible.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:25

The Left’s Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet

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The Left’s Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet

The last 10 days – since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel and slaughtered 100s of men, women, and children – have been remarkable from an American political discourse perspective. The pretzel-like logic exposed as caring, compassionate, tolerant progressives attempted to comment (or chose not to comment) on the atrocities without calling them atrocities, or supporting colonialism/apartheid/oppression, or being anti-semitic, or being pro-terrorist… was stunning.

We weren’t alone in our astonishment, as Robert Sterling took to X and summarized succinctly:

It’s been amazing this week to watch the left invert every rhetorical device they’ve used since 2020, all to avoid having to criticize terrorists dedicated to Jewish genocide.

It would be hilarious, if it weren’t so reprehensible.”

Examples, you say?

He has those…

2020: Silence is violence.

2023: People can’t be expected to comment on every situation. It’s okay to just keep silent, especially while events are still unfolding.

* * *

2020: If you’re nitpicking small details instead of focusing on the big picture, you’re doing so to avoid your complicity in atrocities.

2023: 40 babies weren’t actually beheaded. 40 babies may have been killed, and some of them may have been beheaded, but that’s not the same as 40 getting beheaded. Details matter.

* * *

2020: Universities must proactively take a stand and speak out in opposition to racism. “Academic freedom” is a false concept used to enforce oppression.

2023: Universities need to maintain neutrality and ensure that they do not make any statements that jeopardize the principle of academic freedom, which is a paramount virtue in the realm of scholarship.

* * *

2020: You must immediately and forcefully condemn an attack, even if investigations are ongoing.

2023: You can’t expect us to release statements opposing an attack within four days, when the facts are still being discovered. Israel hasn’t even allowed UN investigators at the scenes of these “alleged massacres.”

* * *

2020: People are responsible for their words, even if they are just working-class teenagers in small towns. Freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom from consequences.

2023: Graduate students at the most prestigious university in the world are just kids and cannot be held accountable for statements they sign. This is cancel culture.

* * *

2020: Believe all women.

2023: Where is the physical evidence of these “alleged rapes”?

* * *

2020: It’s not enough to be non-racist. If you are not actively anti-racist, it means that you are, in fact, racist.

2023: How dare you question whether I support terrorists just because I haven’t actively spoken out against Hamas freedom fighters.

* * *

2020: We don’t get to tell people in affected communities how to deal with their pain in the aftermath of violence.

2023: It is Israel’s responsibility to ensure that violence doesn’t escalate.

* * *

2020: Anything that disproportionately affects one group of people is oppression and must be condemned.

2023: Settlers—a term that includes all Israeli Jews—are not civilians and are therefore all valid targets for attacks.

* * *

But, hey, when did being genuine ever count for anything…

To be fair, hypocrisy has been turned up to ’11’ on both sides of the aisle, it’s just the left seem to do it with less shame than anyone else.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:05

Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found

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Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found

Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

At the risk of over-hoisting from an important piece of analysis, below are some of the key sections from Anusar Farooqui, who writes as Policy Tensor, on the extent of the “death of despair” catastrophe. His piece, Yes, High-School Graduates Are Dying of Despair, is important because he demonstrates that the rising death rates over time extend even into those with some college education.

Farooqu got in an argument with Matt Yglesias on Twitter over the body of work by Ann Case and Angus Deaton on so-called deaths of despair, in which they found what they called an AIDS-level surge of mortality among less-educated whites in middle age. Not only have Case and Deaton refined their analysis, but other studies have identified an increase in early deaths from suicide and addiction in other groups.

For background, from our first post in 2015 on Case-Deaton findings:By Pressreach

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The authors found that from 1999 to 2013, the death rate among non-Hispanic whites aged 45 to 54 with a high school education or less rose, while it fell in other age and ethnic groups. This is an HIV-level silent epidemic: AIDS killed an estimated 650,000 from the mid-1980s to present, while an estimated close to half-million died in half that time period who would have lived had their mortality rates fallen in line with the rest of the population. It is hard to overstate the significance of these findings. From the New York Times:

“It is difficult to find modern settings with survival losses of this magnitude,” wrote two Dartmouth economists, Ellen Meara and Jonathan S. Skinner, in a commentary to the Deaton-Case analysis that was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

This cross-country comparison from the study shows how extreme an outlier these middle aged whites are:

The big culprits are linked to despair, namely “poisoning” which is opioid abuse first and alcoholism second, and suicides. Case and Deaton dug into the underlying statistics, and found distressingly high levels of pain and impaired health in this age group, so pain and physical impairment may well be bigger culprits than economic distress:

And the rise in death rates took place among men and women, in all of the four major regions of the country the authors examined, and obesity rates were not a driving factor.

These pathologies have been showing up in other demographics. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reported in May 2023 that death rates in the 1 to 19 year old age group had risen at an unprecedented rate from 2019 to 2021 due to guns, suicides, car accidents, and drugs.

Now to the immediate discussion. Farooqui took issue with a claim by Matt Yglesias, bolstered by Eric Levitz, that the Case-Deaton data was less significant that it might seem because it lumped together those with no high school degrees with high school diplomas. Yglesias and Levitz argued that the “deaths of despair” were only taking place among high school dropouts and so the white working class was not in as terrible shape as it might seem.

Farooqui pointed out that Case and Deanton had shown that death rates among the middle aged were rising, albeit relatively modestly, even among those with some college education. But then he turns to the crux of the disagreement:

However, they [Case and Deaton] do not distinguish between [less than] HS and HS, and therefore do not address the specific issue highlighted by Levitz: “… it is actually an acute crisis of mortality of the bottom 10%.”

This is an empirical question. We attack this problem using CDC data collated by Wharton. They have age-specific mortality rates by educational attainment. The ordinal categories are

In order to obtain a more representative graph, we use age-specific population weights to combine age-specific hazard ratios. The next graph displays the population-weighted average of hazard ratios for our age-specific cohorts. By construction, this weighted average of hazard ratios is not confounded by any increase in average age within discrete age brackets. And, as explained above, because we’re looking at hazard ratios, it is also not confounded by the common component. This is as kosher as it gets in this business.

We can see that the upward trend in hazard ratios is not confined to high-school dropouts. It is true that the trend is most pronounced for them. But the upward trend is also significant for high-school graduates and those with some college under their belt. The all-cause hazard ratio has increased by 3.28 for high-school dropouts, 2.08 for high school graduates, and 1.27 for those with some college. The upshot is that, on the wrong side of the diploma divide, despair goes very far up indeed.

And then he drives the point home (I’ve omitted the charts in this section, but Farooqui showed he has the goods):

All-cause mortality has a very strong signal. But the evidence for American working class despair is not confined to mortality. Prime-age labor force participation contains the same signal of despair: four out of every nine Americans with only a high-school diploma are not even looking for a job. It’s not like high-school graduates can survive on one pay-check! These are obviously discouraged workers in despair.

Take family reproduction—perhaps the most important factor in human well-being. Following the Sixties revolution in behavioral norms, the rate of family reproduction stabilized for college graduates by the 1990s. But it has continued to fall for high school graduates. See my note from three years ago. And if you’re interested a deeper dive, see Andrew Cherlin’s work.

Or, take divorce rates. For college graduates, 29.7 percent of first marriages end in divorce by age 46. For high-school graduates, 48.2 percent of first marriages end in divorce. (The table’s from here.)

We can keep going. The truth is that American working-class despair is such a robust, large-scale pattern that one can recover the signal from practically anything we care to measure—mortality, morbidity, BMI, labor force participation, marriage rates, child-out-of-wedlock rates, you name it.

So, I stand by my challenge to Matthew Yglesias.

Well-off Americans are so removed from these cohorts, usually encountering them in various service, as in servile, positions where they have to put on a good face as a condition of getting paid, that they can pretend that the lesser orders aren’t suffering in financial and emotional terms.

One proof is despite Case’s and Deaton’s landmark work, there’s no interest in what to do to alleviate this personal and collective disaster. Our version of “Let them eat cake” has gone from “let them learn to code” to “Deprogram them all”.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:45

Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden, Jordan Trip Canceled, Protesters Surround US Embassy In Beirut

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Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden, Jordan Trip Canceled, Protesters Surround US Embassy In Beirut

Update(1820ET): As expected, the fallout from the al-Ahli Baptist Hospital bombing has been swift, with a domino effect of negative consequences both for diplomacy and on the ‘Arab street’. The situation outside the US Embassy in Beirut is deteriorating tonight, with reports of riot police and tear gas being deployed against large crowds waving Hezbollah flags. 

But more importantly, and just as Air Force One is departing Washington for Israel, the White House has canceled the entire leg of Biden’s trip to Jordan. The confirmation was issued within the same hour that Arab leaders announced they were unwilling to meet with Biden, given the US is Israel’s biggest funder and supporter.

Biden issued a statement “deepest condolences” to victims of Gaza “hospital explosion,” according to the White House official statement:

After consulting with Jordan King Abdullah II & in light of the days of mourning announced by Palestinian Authority President Abbas, President Biden will postpone his travel to Jordan and the planned meeting with these two leaders and Egypt President Sisi.

The President sent his deepest condolences for the innocent lives lost in the hospital explosion in Gaza, and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded.

So even before arriving in Israel, the Tuesday massacre – which Israel is actually blaming on Palestinian militants (specifically PIJ) – has effectively served to box-in Biden. France’s Macron has just issued a condemnation to boot, saying “nothing can justify targeting civilians” in a statement which appears to place blame squarely on the Israelis. Biden will now also face the pressure to join the chorus of international condemnation. “International humanitarian law is binding on all and must enable the protection of civilian populations. Humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip must be opened up without delay,” the French foreign ministry said in the statement.

Here’s what Jordan had to say:

“There is no point in doing anything at this time other than stopping this war,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Al Jazeera Arabic early Wednesday morning. “There is no benefit to anyone in holding a summit at this time.”

There are emerging reports that crowds are attempting to storm the US Embassy in Beirut, based on unconfirmed but widely circulating footage overnight (local time): 

Also, things continue popping off around the Israeli Embassy in Jordan…

According to one US special forces veteran, now journalist:

* * *

Update(1610ET): The IDF, and PM Netanyahu have weighed in on the Gaza hospital bombing, which killed and injured hundreds: 

Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told CNN Tuesday that the “IDF does not target hospitals,” adding, “we only target Hamas strongholds, arms depots and terror targets.”

Heinrich’s comments came after Palestinian officials said that preliminary estimates indicate between 200 to 300 people were killed in an Israeli strike on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City.

The IDF issued a statement based on a preliminary investigation, claiming that it was an errant missile fired from within Gaza itself. The IDF alleges that Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired the rocket in a “failed shooting” that was intended for Israel.

“According to intelligence information, from several sources we have, the Islamic Jihad [PIJ} terrorist organization is responsible for the failed shooting that hit the hospital,” the IDF statement said, as it appeared in English on the Government of Israel’s “X” account. PIJ responds:

PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD SPOKESMAN DENIES ISRAELI ALLEGATIONS THAT THE MILITANT GROUP IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GAZA HOSPITAL STRIKE

The international reaction has been swift, especially from regional heads of state, with Turkey’s Erdogan and Jordan’s King Abdullah being among the first to condemn the “war crime” and “massacre”. Abdullah said no one can be “silent” about it.

Large evening protests have not only erupted in towns across the West Bank, especially in Ramallah, but in Arab capitals from Tunisia to Amman. There are fresh reports that Israel’s embassy in Jordan is coming under attack. Large groups of demonstrators have also been seen headed toward the US Embassy in Beirut.

Intifada 3.0?… but with signs this could spread across the Arab world in wake of the al-Ahli Hospital bombing in Gaza City:

Scenes from Amman, again which could spread to many other countries as the Palestinian death toll continues to rise:

Meanwhile, in more breaking news…

WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK

Will this event be the spark that sets the whole region on fire? Whether what Israel is claiming is true or not, we may be witnessing the first rumblings…

President Biden is on his way to Israel in Air Force One as all of this is escalating fast.

Already, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has canceled a scheduled meeting with Biden, citing the “cold-blooded massacre”.

And in additional breaking news: Russia and the UAE have called for an extraordinary UN Security Council meeting after the strike on the hospital in Gaza, per Tass.

* * *

Update(1400ET): Horrific reports of a mass casualty bombing are emerging from Gaza, where a hospital suffered direct hit reportedly by Israeli airstrikes. Gaza’s health ministry has said there are at least 500 casualties in the aftermath of the hospital blast, with “hundreds of victims” buried under the rubble. Gaza sources also say that a UN-run school housing refugees was attacked.

Initially, local emergency officials said there were at least 200 killed in the mid-evening bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, but the count has been steadily rising. Now, per Al Jazeera: “The health ministry in the Gaza Strip says at least 500 people have been killed in an Israeli attack on al-Ahli Arab Hospital.”

Graphic scenes are emerging…

Photographs are circulating of bodies scattered (intentionally blurred) outside of burning hospital wings:

This humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding as President Biden is en route to Israel. Likely many of the victims of the hospital attack were women and children.

Certainly this greatly raises the pressure and the stakes for Biden, as the White House will have to ‘answer’ for this as Israel’s most powerful ally. No doubt the US administration is scrambling to prepare for how it will respond.

* * *

At this point, exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and militants in south Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, have become a daily occurrence – and yet still a full assault from Hezbollah has been avoided. Many analysts have speculated that Israel could be holding off its expected major ground invasion of Gaza precisely to avoid provoking a ‘northern front’ from opening up.

But there are continuing signs the situation is sliding toward that feared two-front scenario, as the IDF has initiated a plan to evacuate all civilians who live within two kilometers of the Lebanese border. They said the repeat rocket and mortar fire make it necessary, also in preparation for potential greater military action. 

The country’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) will oversee transferring of Israeli civilians to state-funded guesthouses. In total a whopping 28 towns and communities will be evacuated.

Israeli army Merkava tanks, file image via AFP/Getty

NEMA has listed them out as follows: Ghajar, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dovev, Ma’ayan Baruch, Bar’am, Manara, Yiftah, Malkia, Misgav Am, Yir’on, Dafna, Arab al-Aramshe, Shlomi, Netu’a, Ya’ara, Shtula, Matat, Zar’it, Shomera, Betzet, Adamit, Rosh Hanikra, Hanita and Kfar Giladi.

Many of these in the last several days saw residents flee due to rocket fire from the other side of the border.

Hezbollah has issued new claims it has destroyed an IDF tank and other military assets. Already both sides have taken on a few casualties. 

“Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks yesterday in order to try to divert our operational efforts [away from the Gaza Strip], under the direction and backing of Iran, while endangering the state of Lebanon and its citizens,” an IDF spokesman had said Monday.

“We have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us,” the IDF said. “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

Dozens of rockets have been launched from Hezbollah positions in the last days. Israel has in response shelled militant positions in Lebanon, but has also hit Lebanese residential areas, prompting people in the area to flee.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah announced that its fighters launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at a gathering of Israeli soldiers, which the group said resulted in “a number of casualties”.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main state backer Iran has continued ratcheting the threats against Israel:

A series of statements from multiple sides point toward continued escalation, which could explode well beyond the Gaza crisis

Israel Ministry of Health: “The war may last a long time, prepare an emergency stock of food for 4 months.”

Iranian Foreign Minister: “The expansion of the war to other fronts has begun to reach unavoidable stages.”

IDF Spokesman: “Israel is prepared on its own both in the north and in the south.”

Israeli Military Spokesman: “If Hezbollah commits a grave mistake, we will respond with devastating force never seen before.”

Iranian leaders have gone so far as to issue threat of ‘preemptive attack’ if Israel continues decimating Gaza…

For now, the situation is expected to be contained given President Biden’s expected Wednesday trip to Israel. There’s widespread belief that Israeli will not go into Gaza with full force so long as the US leader is visiting

Additionally, Israel is still facing condemnation and international pressure related to the Reuters crew which was fired upon: “On Friday, Issam Abdallah, a Reuters video journalist, was killed in southern Lebanon after missiles launched from the direction of Israel struck him,” writes the New York Times. “Six other journalists — from Reuters, Al Jazeera and Agence France-Presse — were also injured in the attack, which occurred near the village of Alma al-Shaab.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:20

WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

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WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices closed higher on the day, after a roller-coaster ride down this morning after Russia’s Central Bank reiterated expectations that OPEC+ may consider an increase in output at the beginning of 2024, but that was quickly pushed back on by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Crude traders are also tracking events in Barbados, where Venezuela’s government is expected to sign a deal with the US-backed opposition later on Tuesday. In exchange for a freer presidential election next year, the agreement could pave the way for the US to ease sanctions against the country, potentially boosting oil exports.

“Traders remain on high alert” while oil remains in a holding pattern, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.

“Many investors are not willing to make outright bets on crude in the current environment but are actively buying upside call options in the event crude supply is impacted. It is a low conviction, highly volatile trading environment.”

WTI accelerated its rebound after the missile strike on a Gazan hospital.

After last week’s large crude build (and draws at Cushing and in products), all eyes are for any signs of further demand destruction.

API

  • Crude -4.38mm (+400k exp)

  • Cushing -1.00mm

  • Gasoline -1.58mm (-600k exp)

  • Distillates -612k (-1.2mm exp)

API reports inventory drawdowns across the board with Crude stocks unexpectedly falling 4.4mm barrels (+400k exp) and Cushing getting ever closer to ‘tank bottoms’…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $87.20 and extended gains after the draws…

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas penned an interesting op-ed, blasting the fact that the Biden administration has allowed the SPR to run so low, saying that this ignorance could not come at a worst time.

Henry Kissinger called it “the economic equivalent of the Sputnik challenge.” 

Exactly 50 years ago today, the US found itself under economic assault after Arab nations weaponized oil, starting a petroleum embargo that brought the global economy to its knees.

Kissinger, vowing America would never be blackmailed again, designed a shield against the oil weapon: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A stockpile containing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude, its function was to offset the impact of any future supply disruption, intentional or not. Half a century later, Washington has forgotten that lesson.

The SPR today contains less than half the crude it had at its peak just over a decade ago. At about 350 million barrels, it’s at its lowest since 1983. To put what’s left into perspective, the US released about 270 million barrels over the last two years to cap oil prices.

[ZH: For context, there is less than 20 days of supply left to meet current levels of demand… but we know SPR can’t go to ‘zero’ so good luck]

If the SPR is a revolver, it has a final round left in the chamber — and that’s it.

Worth a read…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:37

The Triumph Of The Apocalyptics

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The Triumph Of The Apocalyptics

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

In the course of almost four years, and really dating back a decade and a half, I’ve managed to read most of the writings of the intellectuals, titans of industry, and government officials who constructed the strange reality of 2020 and after. They wanted to conduct a science experiment on the human population. Because infectious disease knows no borders, they knew for sure it would have to be a global one. 

They had every detail worked out in their models. They knew how far apart people would need to stand. They knew that the best way to stop any common virus from spreading would be total isolation of the whole human population insofar as that was possible. Families could not do that of course but they figured that they could live in different rooms or simply stay six feet apart. If they couldn’t do that, they could mask up. 

It goes without saying – but they said it anyway because their models told them so – that indoor and outdoor venues where people gathered had to be closed (those were the exact words issued by the White House on March 16, 2020). The scheme was deployed first in China, then Northern Italy, then the United States, and the rest of the world fell in line, all but a handful of nations including Sweden, which faced many months of brutal criticism for allowing freedom for its citizens. 

It’s truly hard to imagine what the architects of this barbaric policy believed would happen next. Is it as simple (and ridiculous) as believing that a respiratory virus would just disappear? Or that a potion would show up in time to inoculate the whole population even though no one has ever successfully come up with something like that before? Is that what they believed? 

Maybe.

Or maybe it was just fun or otherwise remuneratively advantageous to try out a grand and global experiment on the human population. Certainly it was profitable for many, even if it wrecked the social, cultural, economic, and political lives of billions of people. Even as I write those words, it’s hard to believe they are not out of some dystopian fiction. And yet this is what happened. 

Almost immediately, the idea of human rights took a back seat. Obviously so. So did the idea of equal freedom: that was immediately on the chopping block. By edict, the human population was divided into categories. It began with essential and nonessential, distinctions drawn from military protocols that suddenly pertained to the whole of the civilian world. 

That was only the beginning of the stark divisions. The stigmatization of the sick began immediately too. Were they sick because they were insufficiently compliant? Did they disobey the protocols? In a hundred years of public health, we’ve not seen this level and scale of demarcation. Some of this was attempted during the AIDS crisis (pushed by none other than Anthony Fauci) but not this aggressively or comprehensively. 

In those days, you could feel the concern for basic rights and freedom slipping, and with it the moral conscience of the public mind. From the beginning, it felt like martial law and the population was being divided: sick vs. well, compliant vs. noncompliant, essential vs non-essential, elective surgeries vs. emergencies needing medical services. And so on. 

And this expanded dramatically over the coming months. When face coverings came along, it was masked vs unmasked. When some states started opening, it became red vs. blue. Us vs. them. 

When the vaccine came along, the ultimate division hit, piling upon and swamping all the others: vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The mandates massively disrupted the labor force. The public accommodations of whole cities were shut off to the unvaccinated, so that noncompliant citizens could not go to restaurants, bars, libraries, theaters, or other public places. Even houses of worship went along even though they didn’t have to, breaking their congregations into two parts. 

Behind all of this was a political motive that traces to a text that every high expert still celebrates as a prescient and decisive refutation of liberal values: Carl Schmitt’s Concept of the Political from 1932. This essay is utterly dismissive of human rights on grounds that such notions do not sustain robust states. He was of course a Nazi jurist and his thought laid the groundwork for the demonization of the Jews and the march of the totalitarian state. 

In Schmitt’s mind, the friend/enemy distinction is the best method of rallying the people around a grand cause that gives life meaning. This impulse is what gives strength to the state. He goes further: the friend/enemy distinction is best ignited in the reality of bloodshed:

“The state as the decisive political entity possesses an enormous power: the possibility of waging war and thereby publicly disposing of the lives of men. The jus belli contains such a disposition. It implies a double possibility: the right to demand from its own members the readiness to die and unhesitatingly to kill enemies.”

If for years, you have asked the question “Where does this end?” we now have our answer, which seems inevitable in retrospect: war. We are looking at the deaths of innocents and probably this as just the beginning. The lockdowns broke not only the old moral codes and agreed-upon limits to state power. It broke the human personality and spirit the whole world over. It gave rise to a bloodlust that was barely beneath the surface. 

States went crazy in bullying and dividing their citizens. It happened nearly everywhere but Israel was a leading case in point, as Brownstone has pointed out repeatedly. The citizenry has never been more divided and the state never more distracted from security concerns. The delicate peace was shattered in shocking ways on October 7, 2023 in a ghastly attack that revealed the worst security failure in the vulnerable state in its history. 

That incident then encouraged and further unleashed the apocalyptics, whole peoples determined to take the next step in the dehumanization of the population and the use of appalling means of doing the unthinkable: extermination, a word now thrown around as if it is fine and normal to speak this way. This conflict has now reached further into the politics of every country and down to every civic association, communities of intellectuals, and personal friendship. As Schmitt might have loved – and what Bret Weinstein calls Goliath (the unity of administrative state, media, corporate power, and elite tech platforms) surely celebrates – everyone is being turned into the category of friend and enemy. 

We are reminded at last of how incredibly fragile civilization – and the peace and freedom that gives rise to it – truly is. We should worry that in the drama of the moment, the history recounted above will be discarded from human memory. The plans for virus eradication failed so badly that many of its perpetrators are desperate for a dramatic change of subject so that they can avoid responsibility. Again, this is the desire, and it might even be the plan. 

This simply cannot be allowed to happen. Those of us with memories of civilized life, including universal rights and freedoms, cannot stay silent or get emotionally drawn in to the point that we are willing to forget what was done to us, the damage it inflicted on public culture, and the moral conduct a civilized people expect. 

Every war is preceded by a period of demoralization (I don’t matter), demotivation (there is nothing I can do), and dehumanization (those people are not worth saving). From there it is a simple matter of flipping the switch. 

Brownstone was founded in light of the above history to shine a light on higher ideals, not a Schmittian war between friends and enemies but societies of compassion, dignity, freedom, rights, and the exercise of human volition against all threats and uses of violence public and private. This is our guiding light now and always. Apocalypticism builds nothing; it only destroys. It’s the instantiation of the philosophy of The Joker. No nation and no community can survive it. 

Few of us knew or fully understood the depth of depravity just beneath the thin veneer of civilization that had previously dominated the large expanse of our lives. It was the maniacal experiment in disease control only a few years ago that triggered this bout of man’s inhumanity to man. There is a burning need to know how this came about and why, and take measures, now desperate ones, to put back into the Pandora’s box all that was released. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:20

Mass Protests Erupt In Arab Capitals As IDF Blames Errant Islamic Jihad Rocket For Hospital Massacre

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Mass Protests Erupt In Arab Capitals As IDF Blames Errant Islamic Jihad Rocket For Hospital Massacre

Update(1610ET): The IDF, and PM Netanyahu have weighed in on the Gaza hospital bombing, which killed and injured hundreds: 

Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told CNN Tuesday that the “IDF does not target hospitals,” adding, “we only target Hamas strongholds, arms depots and terror targets.”

Heinrich’s comments came after Palestinian officials said that preliminary estimates indicate between 200 to 300 people were killed in an Israeli strike on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City.

The IDF issued a statement based on a preliminary investigation, claiming that it was an errant missile fired from within Gaza itself. The IDF alleges that Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired the rocket in a “failed shooting” that was intended for Israel.

“According to intelligence information, from several sources we have, the Islamic Jihad [PIJ} terrorist organization is responsible for the failed shooting that hit the hospital,” the IDF statement said, as it appeared in English on the Government of Israel’s “X” account. PIJ responds:

PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD SPOKESMAN DENIES ISRAELI ALLEGATIONS THAT THE MILITANT GROUP IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GAZA HOSPITAL STRIKE

The international reaction has been swift, especially from regional heads of state, with Turkey’s Erdogan and Jordan’s King Abdullah being among the first to condemn the “war crime” and “massacre”. Abdullah said no one can be “silent” about it.

Large evening protests have not only erupted in towns across the West Bank, especially in Ramallah, but in Arab capitals from Tunisia to Amman. There are fresh reports that Israel’s embassy in Jordan is coming under attack. Large groups of demonstrators have also been seen headed toward the US Embassy in Beirut.

Intifada 3.0?… but with signs this could spread across the Arab world in wake of the al-Ahli Hospital bombing in Gaza City:

Scenes from Amman, again which could spread to many other countries as the Palestinian death toll continues to rise:

Meanwhile, in more breaking news…

WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK

Will this event be the spark that sets the whole region on fire? Whether what Israel is claiming is true or not, we may be witnessing the first rumblings…

President Biden is on his way to Israel in Air Force One as all of this is escalating fast.

Already, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has canceled a scheduled meeting with Biden, citing the “cold-blooded massacre”.

And in additional breaking news: Russia and the UAE have called for an extraordinary UN Security Council meeting after the strike on the hospital in Gaza, per Tass.

* * *

Update(1400ET): Horrific reports of a mass casualty bombing are emerging from Gaza, where a hospital suffered direct hit reportedly by Israeli airstrikes. Gaza’s health ministry has said there are at least 500 casualties in the aftermath of the hospital blast, with “hundreds of victims” buried under the rubble. Gaza sources also say that a UN-run school housing refugees was attacked.

Initially, local emergency officials said there were at least 200 killed in the mid-evening bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, but the count has been steadily rising. Now, per Al Jazeera: “The health ministry in the Gaza Strip says at least 500 people have been killed in an Israeli attack on al-Ahli Arab Hospital.”

Graphic scenes are emerging…

Photographs are circulating of bodies scattered (intentionally blurred) outside of burning hospital wings:

This humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding as President Biden is en route to Israel. Likely many of the victims of the hospital attack were women and children.

Certainly this greatly raises the pressure and the stakes for Biden, as the White House will have to ‘answer’ for this as Israel’s most powerful ally. No doubt the US administration is scrambling to prepare for how it will respond.

* * *

At this point, exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and militants in south Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, have become a daily occurrence – and yet still a full assault from Hezbollah has been avoided. Many analysts have speculated that Israel could be holding off its expected major ground invasion of Gaza precisely to avoid provoking a ‘northern front’ from opening up.

But there are continuing signs the situation is sliding toward that feared two-front scenario, as the IDF has initiated a plan to evacuate all civilians who live within two kilometers of the Lebanese border. They said the repeat rocket and mortar fire make it necessary, also in preparation for potential greater military action. 

The country’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) will oversee transferring of Israeli civilians to state-funded guesthouses. In total a whopping 28 towns and communities will be evacuated.

Israeli army Merkava tanks, file image via AFP/Getty

NEMA has listed them out as follows: Ghajar, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dovev, Ma’ayan Baruch, Bar’am, Manara, Yiftah, Malkia, Misgav Am, Yir’on, Dafna, Arab al-Aramshe, Shlomi, Netu’a, Ya’ara, Shtula, Matat, Zar’it, Shomera, Betzet, Adamit, Rosh Hanikra, Hanita and Kfar Giladi.

Many of these in the last several days saw residents flee due to rocket fire from the other side of the border.

Hezbollah has issued new claims it has destroyed an IDF tank and other military assets. Already both sides have taken on a few casualties. 

“Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks yesterday in order to try to divert our operational efforts [away from the Gaza Strip], under the direction and backing of Iran, while endangering the state of Lebanon and its citizens,” an IDF spokesman had said Monday.

“We have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us,” the IDF said. “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

Dozens of rockets have been launched from Hezbollah positions in the last days. Israel has in response shelled militant positions in Lebanon, but has also hit Lebanese residential areas, prompting people in the area to flee.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah announced that its fighters launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at a gathering of Israeli soldiers, which the group said resulted in “a number of casualties”.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main state backer Iran has continued ratcheting the threats against Israel:

A series of statements from multiple sides point toward continued escalation, which could explode well beyond the Gaza crisis

Israel Ministry of Health: “The war may last a long time, prepare an emergency stock of food for 4 months.”

Iranian Foreign Minister: “The expansion of the war to other fronts has begun to reach unavoidable stages.”

IDF Spokesman: “Israel is prepared on its own both in the north and in the south.”

Israeli Military Spokesman: “If Hezbollah commits a grave mistake, we will respond with devastating force never seen before.”

Iranian leaders have gone so far as to issue threat of ‘preemptive attack’ if Israel continues decimating Gaza…

For now, the situation is expected to be contained given President Biden’s expected Wednesday trip to Israel. There’s widespread belief that Israeli will not go into Gaza with full force so long as the US leader is visiting

Additionally, Israel is still facing condemnation and international pressure related to the Reuters crew which was fired upon: “On Friday, Issam Abdallah, a Reuters video journalist, was killed in southern Lebanon after missiles launched from the direction of Israel struck him,” writes the New York Times. “Six other journalists — from Reuters, Al Jazeera and Agence France-Presse — were also injured in the attack, which occurred near the village of Alma al-Shaab.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:10

‘Seasonally-Adjusted’ “Good News” Batters Bonds; Biden Bruises Big-Tech

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‘Seasonally-Adjusted’ “Good News” Batters Bonds; Biden Bruises Big-Tech

Great news everyone!! Bidenomics is working or something. Retail sales soared more than expected, so did Industrial Production, so did Manufacturing Output… and continuing claims are still low…

WTF are people so miserable out in all these sentiment surveys?

Well… it’s all illusion/delusion (economics PhD speak for ‘adjustments’)…

And remember what Goldman warned about on jobless claims: ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.

The economic data (seasonally-adjusted) has been holding in ‘so strong’ as financial conditions have tightened dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

The “good news” prompted a big jump in rate-hike expectations (Dec 2023 and Jan 2024 basically now at 50% and 60% respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

And, the “good” news headlines sparked another panic-puke in bonds, sending yields to cycle highs. All yields were significantly higher but the belly underperformed the wings on the day (2Y +10bps, 5Y +15bps, 30Y +7bps), and that is evident on the week

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yields hit 5.23% today… 2006 highs was 5.275%… before that we go back to Dec 2000.

Source: Bloomberg

5Y yields hit 4.88%, its highest since July 2007 (that cycle high was 5.23% in June 2006).

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields reached up near last week’s highs and reversed a little…

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you wondered, 30Y mortgage rates are inching ever closer to 8% – more than 23 year highs – are unprecedentedly decoupled from the effective rate of current mortgage-holders…

Source: Bloomberg

Translation: sellers are trapped and buyers are priced out.

Higher yields, lower stocks right? Nope. The economy must be doing  great so buy, buy, buy. Around 1230ET stocks rolled over (as the S&P 500 tagged its 50DMA) and stocks dipped when a rocket hit a hospital in Gaza and killed 100s (who the f knows where the missile came from at this point). By the close, Small Caps were dramatically higher (short squeeze) while Nasdaq was the biggest loser (China AI exports) with The Dow and S&P trying to hold on to unch…

Another short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Tech stocks took a spill as the Biden admin confirmed new crackdown rules on exports of AI chips to China. SOX tumbled (bounced, then slid lower again)…

NVDA was punched in the face, despite its claims it would not be affected?

VIX tumbled down to a 16 handle briefly intraday before bouncing back above 18 and ending higher on the day…

The dollar chopped around wildly to end unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar’s action was echoed in crypto – Bitcoin went sideways to slightly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And gold sideways to slightly higher…

Crude… did the same… dropping and popping to end slightly higher…

Finally, with real-yields back near cycle highs, valuations for stocks start to get “questionable” again…

Source: Bloomberg

Did Biden just bust his AI bubble?

Source: Bloomberg

Is that another big ‘head and shoulders’ pattern?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:00