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NY/NJ/CT Services Sector Collapses In October

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NY/NJ/CT Services Sector Collapses In October

Activity declined significantly in the service sector, according to firms responding to the FRBNY’s October 2023 Business Leaders Survey (which covers service firms in New York, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut). The survey’s headline business activity index plunged 16pts to -19.1 (biggest drop in a year), its lowest level since Jan 2023

Source: Bloomberg

From the exuberance of August’s re-emergence into positive territory, the sentiment survey has collapses back near cyclical lows.

Additionally, as FRBNY reports, the business climate index fell 9pts to -35.9, suggesting the business climate remains much worse than normal – and expectations plunged

Despite the plunge in sentiment, employment rose modestly and prices were stable.

Maybe more government handouts for more migrants from Texas will help?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 09:01

Geopolitical Risks May Accelerate A Debt Crisis

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Geopolitical Risks May Accelerate A Debt Crisis

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Many investors are warning of the risk of a debt crisis, but governments are ignoring all the signals.

In an inflationary crisis, the government should reduce expenditures to help curb price increases while also anticipating a significant increase in borrowing costs. However, in this crisis, the United States administration is ignoring all the warning signs and continuing to borrow at a record pace.

Debt crises always happen when even the most conservative investors refuse to add to a sovereign bond portfolio that is loss-making to begin with. Central banks may decide to purchase those unwanted government bonds, but then the inflation problem worsens and the losses at the central bank accumulate.

The enormous problem created by the monetary and fiscal insanity of 2020 is difficult to solve. Central banks are already publishing losses in their assets, and those negative results must be covered by taxpayers.

Government bonds have been an atrocious investment in 2022 and continue to generate negative results for investors in 2023. Furthermore, sovereign debt is rising at a record pace, ignoring the wall of maturities that the global fixed-income world is facing in 2024 and 2025.

The United States national debt has soared by $550 billion in less than a month. Total debt was $31.4 trillion in July and soared to $33.5 trillion in less than four months. This happened while the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 3.7% to 4.6%. Imagine a government that massively increases debt and does so at a record speed when there is a $500 billion investment-grade maturity wall in 2025 and the government faces $7.6 trillion of maturities of public debt in the next twelve months, according to Goldman Sachs. At the same time, Goldman Sachs also noted that CFTC figures show that U.S. Treasury net long positions in 2-year and 10-year notes have fallen to the lowest level since October 2018. This is truly a dangerous scenario in the middle of geopolitical tensions reaching new highs.

The United States government is counting on rising global demand for US dollars to offset the increased fiscal imbalances and on the Fed to change its monetary policy if needed. This is a dangerous bet when China, Saudi Arabia, and other nations’ Treasury holdings are dropping to multi-year lows. It is also extremely imprudent to believe that the world will absorb the United States’ fiscal imbalances at any cost in the middle of a global geopolitical conflict. Furthermore, it is reckless to believe that the Federal Reserve will buy all the Treasury bonds required when the central bank is already loss-making. Such a level of irresponsibility may put the U.S. dollar in danger in the long term.

The United States’ fiscal imbalances are enormous, but so are the deficit levels of many other developed nations, and the combination of rising rates, losses at the central bank, and impending giant maturity walls happens as well in the euro area.

All of this is evidence of the monetary debasement process that started in 2009 but accelerated in 2020. Governments are destroying the purchasing power of their currencies to disguise their enormous debt and deficit levels, and inflation is eroding citizens’ savings and wages. In this environment, sovereign bonds never protect investors.

Governments do not want to pay for the risk they take and will absorb others’ wealth via negative real rates or price losses in the issued bonds. The inflationary spiral is likely to remain persistent, and the prospect of another round of quantitative easing may not offset the accumulated losses in bond portfolios and certainly will not modify the currency debasement scenario. In a period like this, gold becomes the cheapest asset by far. It is inexpensive relative to its historical purchasing power and monetary qualities, but it is even more attractive relative to the fiat currencies whose monetary value is dissolved by massive printing. The current debt problem and the geopolitical risk tell us that gold is a safe bet in a volatile world.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 06:30

Goldman Warns About Shipping Recession As Consumer Sputters 

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Goldman Warns About Shipping Recession As Consumer Sputters 

Since global shipping peaked during the Covid pandemic, A.P. Moller-Maersk has warned about an emerging downturn in the container shipping market. 

Goldman now forecasts a lengthier and potentially more severe downturn for the shipping industry, recommending a sell for the Danish shipping giant: 

“We believe market expectations are still too complacent on the depth and duration of the coming shipping recession,” Goldman analyst Patrick Creuset told clients Monday morning. 

Creuset said his fundamental perspective on the industry is that freight rates and earnings must continue to decline. This reduction is necessary until there’s enough financial pressure to phase out expensive tonnage.

He said, “Even after the further rate drop in recent weeks, we see no sign of this: New vessel deliveries are running at c.1% of the global fleet/month with very little slippage, idling and scrapping remain low, and Nov active capacity is set to increase significantly vs. Oct on the main trades.” 

Creuset identified two major distinctions compared with previous bear markets, which might result in a steeper drop in EBIT margin than typically observed: 

  1. Industry balance sheets used to be highly levered meaning cash burn could not be sustained for long, whereas this time most carriers hold billions of USD in cash;

  2. The erosion of the alliance structures means carriers are incentivized to make sure their network is large and strong enough to potentially sustain services on their own, e.g. MSC’s strong growth on the back of the announcement of the 2M split. Point (2) is also likely to make the day-to-day management of overcapacity a lot harder in 2024/25.

Goldman hit Maersk with a sell rating, expecting “2023-27 EBITDA estimates fall by 8% on average, reflecting lower freight rates.” 

The analyst shows carriers are still ordering new vessels, indicating the industry needs more tools to manage capacity. 

Container rates on major shipping lines have roundtripped back to pre-Covid levels. 

In August, Maersk warned about waning global demand for shipping containers by sea. The company transports Chinese-made goods for retailers such as Walmart, Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Kohl’s – all of whom have warned about a consumer slowdown

Goldman’s report offers even more evidence the global economy is on shaky grounds as the Western consumer appears to be sputtering amidst central banks’ aggressive rate hiking cycle to tame the worst inflation in a generation. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 05:45

BBC Suspends Several Arabic Journalists For Social Media Posts Endorsing Hamas Terror Attack

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BBC Suspends Several Arabic Journalists For Social Media Posts Endorsing Hamas Terror Attack

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The BBC has suspended several of its journalists associated with the BBC Arabic news portal and launched an internal investigation into their actions after staff appeared to endorse Hamas’ terror attack in Israel.

Reporters working for the British taxpayer-funded corporation in the Middle East were found to have made several communications and interactions on social media in relation to the bloody offensive by Hamas that left more than 1,300 Israeli civilians dead, sparking a number of complaints over perceived bias within the organization.

An independent investigation by the U.S.-based Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis (CAMERA), reported its findings to the BBC, providing evidence of concerning behavior by several members of the organization.

One journalist allegedly described the atrocities committed by Hamas on Oct. 7 as a “morning of hope,” while another posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the attack had left “Israel’s prestige crying in the corner.”

Others, including Cairo-based correspondent Salma Khattab, liked a post describing Hamas as “freedom fighters,” while Beirut-based programs editor Nada Abdelsamad reposted footage of Israeli civilians in hiding who were described as cowering “inside a tin container in fear of the Palestinian resistance warriors.”

Another senior correspondent was reported to have poked fun at the relatives of an Israeli grandmother who was abducted by Hamas and is being held captive in Gaza.

In addition to the remarks of certain individuals, the impartiality of BBC Arabic’s output, both through its TV channel and news website, has been called into question after referring to towns within the recognized state of Israel as “settlements” and the local residents as “settlers.”

In total, six reporters and a freelance journalist have become the subject of an investigation into alleged anti-Israel bias, and some of those involved have been suspended.

Freelancer Aya Hossam liked a post that suggested that no Israeli could be classed as a civilian, as “every member of the Zionist entity served in the army at some point in his life, whether men or women, and they all had victims of explicit violations… This term ‘civilians’ applies to the animals and pets that live there and they are not seriously at fault.”

Hossam also reposted a comment that read, “The Zionist must know that he will live as a thief and a usurper.”

CAMERA accused the broadcaster of “whitewashing the practice of targeting Jewish civilians.”

“They constantly claim that they apply the same editorial standards of accuracy and impartiality to their services in all languages, including those with which BBC management is not familiar and can’t oversee properly, such as Arabic. But these lapses do not occur anywhere near as frequently in their English language content, so that can’t be taken seriously,” a statement from the U.S.-based organization read.

On Sunday, the BBC issued a statement announcing the investigation and confirmed that Ms. Hossam would no longer be working with the organization.

“We take allegations of breaches of our editorial and social media guidelines with the utmost seriousness, and if and when we find breaches we will act, including taking disciplinary action,” a spokesperson said.

The public broadcaster has been embroiled in controversy following the attack on Israel, which has sparked formidable retaliation in Gaza after editors refused to refer to those involved in the Hamas surprise attack as “terrorists.”

This is despite Hamas being classified as a proscribed terror organization by the U.K. government back in 2021, thus justifying the use of the term for a corporation that strives to be impartial.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 05:00

PwC Finds One-Third Of Britons Plan To Slash Holiday Spending

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PwC Finds One-Third Of Britons Plan To Slash Holiday Spending

A new PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP survey reveals nearly a third of British consumers are expected to reduce spending this holiday season due to a cost of living crisis that continues to wreck household finances, according to Bloomberg

PwC’s survey indicated that nearly 80% of those planning to cut back on spending are doing so because of elevated food and energy costs. Around 20% attribute it to increased shelter costs, like mortgage or rental payments. 

It said only 18% of respondents expect to spend more on Christmas this year, while slightly more than half expect spending to remain the same. 

“With shoppers wanting to protect spending on family and special occasions, they are starting preparations early and being cautious, with over a third of consumers planning to shop before the peak festive trading times, and many also saying that they will spend less,” Lisa Hooker, leader of the industry for consumer markets at PwC said.

Even though headline inflation will likely ease again in September, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said sticky inflation could result in a “persistent” monetary response, increasing the odds that BoE has not yet reached the peak of the hiking cycle. 

High inflation has crushed consumer sentiment. PWC’s most recent sentiment survey printed around -13, unchanged from the summer and still at a low from one year ago. 

Given the downbeat sentiment among consumers, Britain’s biggest retailer, Tesco, recently gave a positive outlook about the holiday shopping season. Also, retailers, including Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer, plan to hire thousands of temporary workers. 

A deteriorating labor market, high inflation, a slowing housing market, higher interest rates, and dampening real wage growth are all a perfect recipe for increased recession risk. 

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 04:15

Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Slumped To 28-Month Low In August

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Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Slumped To 28-Month Low In August

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports plunged to a 28-month low in August as the world’s largest crude oil exporter continued to cut its production to “stabilize” the market, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday.   

Saudi crude oil exports fell to 5.58 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, down by 428,000 bpd from July—the lowest level in 28 months, according to the latest available data in JODI, which compiles self-reported data from many countries.

The Kingdom’s crude oil exports have been steadily falling since March this year, from a high of over 7.5 million bpd in January, due to the OPEC+ cuts in which Saudi Arabia reduced production by around 500,000 bpd, and to the voluntary Saudi cut of 1 million bpd, which is now extended until the end of this year.

In August, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production dropped by 95,000 bpd to 8.92 million bpd, the lowest in 27 months, according to the JODI data published today. The Kingdom started to implement the voluntary cut of 1 million bpd in July this year.

After extending the production reduction for a month for two consecutive months, Saudi Arabia said in September it would extend the extra cut until the end of 2023.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the key OPEC+ partners, said they are keeping their oil supply cuts in November despite the crude oil price rally in September.

Both Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterated that the ongoing oil supply cuts were aimed at keeping “stability and balance on the oil markets.”

The Saudi production cuts and the drop in its crude oil exports have been tightening the oil market in recent months. The lower supply sent prices soaring to the highest level so far this year at the end of September.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 03:30

Stockholm To Ban Gas And Diesel Cars Starting In 2025

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Stockholm To Ban Gas And Diesel Cars Starting In 2025

The ban on gas and diesel vehicles is officially making its way across the globe, with Stockholm the next city in the queue. 

The Swedish capital now has a plan in place to ban gas and diesel cars in part of the city beginning in 2025, according to Bloomberg. The ban is going to begin in a 20 block area around the capital’s finance hub, the report says.

The same area also houses the city’s main shopping attractions. It’ll only allow “electric cars, some hybrid trucks and fuel cell vehicles”, the report says, citing rules reported by SVT that will be presented mid-week.

Stockholm is poised to become a trailblazer among major capitals by considering the prohibition on a scale previously unseen. The proposal surpasses the efforts of cities like Paris, Athens, and Madrid, which have also set their sights on banning diesel cars.

In the same vein, some cities like London have implemented measures like low-emission zones, where drivers of older combustion engine vehicles are required to pay daily fees for access to the city center.

It’s uncertain whether the plan will boost electric vehicle sales in Sweden, given the current cost-of-living crisis affecting EV sales. Mobility Sweden recently lowered its 2023 forecast for new EV registrations from 40% to 35% of total registrations.

In other places, Brussels banned non-essential and non-local car traffic on 10 central city streets in December. London expanded its ultra-low emission zone in August, marking one of the world’s most ambitious vehicle emissions policies. However, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed the UK government’s plan to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars until 2035.

In Norway’s capital, Oslo, known for its EV adoption, the municipal environment agency recommended introducing a zero-emission zone in the inner city. Initially, it would target heavy transport and trucks in 2025 before extending to cars in 2027.

Lars Stromgren, a local lawmaker who is responsible for traffic policy, told Bloomberg: “We want to create a better living environment for the people who live and work here.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 02:45

Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD

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Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

At the same time the governing left-liberal coalition crashes in the polls, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is surging ahead, reaching a new record high in a major state-run poll.

AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

According to the most recent ARD Deutschlandtrend poll, all parties of the ruling traffic light coalition only have 33 percent of the vote, while the AfD is now stronger than the SPD and the Free Democrats (FDP) combined, reaching 23 percent of the vote.

According to Infratest dimap, the three-party ruling coalition has reached a new low among Germans. Only 15 percent back the SPD, while 13 percent would vote for the Greens and 5 percent for the FDP. Given that 5 percent is needed to enter parliament, the FDP is under threat of being removed entirely, which is putting the coalition on increasingly shaky ground.

AfD party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated the new record high, writing: “New record also in the ARD Germany trend: The AfD is now at 23% here too! In addition, 50% of citizens would like the AfD to be in government where it has performed strongly. A great confirmation of our work!”

The poll showed all three governing parties dropping one point compared to polling from a week ago. For the Social Democrats, this is the worst result during this legislative period; in the federal election approximately two years ago, SPD had 25.7 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, FDP has seen its vote cut in half since 2021, when it received 11.5 percent of the electoral vote.

The AfD is enjoying a record lead over the SPD, coming in at an unprecedented eight points. Meanwhile, the Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists (CDU/CSU) continue their run on top of the polls, coming in at 29 percent, a bump of one point compared to last week. The Free Voters and the Left Party would each have 4 percent.

Voters’ top concern is immigration, while climate change becomes a non-issue

Voters also say their top concern is mass immigration, with 44 percent of voters naming this as the most important political problem that politicians should address. This issue towers over the other problems facing the country, with armed conflicts/peace/foreign policy only coming in at 18 percent, while the economy comes in at 11 percent and inflation and taxes at 10 percent.

Regarding the environment and climate change, only 1 percent of Germans list this as the most pressing issue.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/17/2023 – 02:00

The Greatest Hoax Of All Time

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The Greatest Hoax Of All Time

Authored by ‘Mr. E’ via bombthrower.com,

Follow Mr. E on Substack and Twitter!

It should come as no surprise to anyone following my work when I say that both mainstream and alternative media are, to a very large extent, part of the controlled dialectic put forth by the ruling class. It helps to maintain a division of society, promulgated by useful idiots and true believers of either side’s dogma.

Malcolm X’s famous quote applies:

The press is so powerful in its image-making role, it can make the criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. This is the press, an irresponsible press. It will make the criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.

It behooves everyone to have a healthy skepticism of whatever they hear no matter the outlet. But even more concerning to you is when they all begin to push the same narrative. In this report you’re going to see just how much effort some are willing to exert in the maintenance of a popular scapegoat – the Freemasons.

In the days following the breakout of violence in Israel and Gaza Greg Reese, producer of the popular Reese Report, published a video outlining the contents of a letter allegedly written by Freemason Albert Pike on August 15, 1871. The very same letter was reported on in rapid succession by mainstream outlets The Daily Star, Daily Mail, News.com.au, and Express.co.uk in 2016. A South African newspaper also reported on it in 2013.

All these reports make mention that this letter “allegedly” exists, but none went so far as to even attempt to confirm this. They didn’t investigate the sources, and merely uncritically repeated something that appeared too good to be true.

The Devil in the Nineteenth Century

We must go back over 130 years to get to the bottom of this story, and it all begins in France with a man named Marie Joseph Gabriel Antoine Jogand-Pagès, better known as Léo Taxil. Born in 1854 he was placed in Jesuit seminary school, where he came to be disillusioned with the Catholic faith and religion in general.

Léo Taxil circa 1880, from the Bibliothèque Nationale de France.

Eventually becoming a writer, he targeted Christianity with scathing critiques such as The Holy Pornographers: Confession and Confessors and The Pope’s Mistresses. He even ventured into satirical pieces like The Life of Jesus, making a mockery of the immaculate conception, and The Amusing Bible. In 1884 he wrote The Secret Loves of Pope Pius IX, which is exactly what the salacious title suggests and eventually led to accusations of libel.

Also in 1884, Pope Leo XIII published an encyclical on Freemasonry where he declared:

The race of man, after its miserable fall from God … separated into two diverse and opposite parts, of which the one steadfastly contends for truth and virtue, the other of those things which are contrary to virtue and to truth. The one is the kingdom of God on earth … The other is the kingdom of Satan … At every period of time each has been in conflict with the other, with a variety and multiplicity of weapons and of warfare, although not always with equal ardour and assault. At this period, however, the partisans of evil seems to be combining together, and to be struggling with united vehemence, led on or assisted by that strongly organized and widespread association called the Freemasons. No longer making any secret of their purposes, they are now boldly rising up against God Himself. They are planning the destruction of holy Church publicly and openly, and this with the set purpose of utterly despoiling the nations of Christendom, if it were possible, of the blessings obtained for us through Jesus Christ our Saviour.

Perhaps swayed by this polemic, Taxil announced he had converted back to Catholicism in 1885 and set to work on an entirely different literary endeavor with a new target, the Freemasons. Over the next several years he published Les Mystères de la Franc-Maçonnerie, a four-volume history of Freemasonry containing curious-but-unsourced accounts of eyewitness’s participation in strange rites. The books were sensational and Taxil even had an audience with Pope Leo XIII himself to congratulate him on all his good works exposing the dastardly plans of the Freemasons.

The best was yet to come, however, when he teamed up with Dr. Karl Hacks to write the two-volume Le Diable au XIXe Siècle, published in 1892 and 1894, telling the insider tale of one Diana Vaughan in the words of Doctor Bataille. The lurid details of her account boggle the mind. She was a member of the Palladium Rite, under the command of Albert Pike, where she was involved in ritual orgies and blood sacrifices. They would summon demons in physical form, and she was even betrothed to one of them.

Chapter 25 of the second volume is entitled “Plan of the Secret Chiefs,” and it purportedly contains the text of a plan written on August 15, 1871, by Albert Pike and the leadership of the Palladium Rite, detailing their plan for the destruction of Roman Catholicism. The description of the final coup-de-grace contains a paragraph that has gone on to be legend:

Therefore, when the autocratic Empire of Russia will become the citadel of papist adonaism, we shall unleash the revolutionary nihilists and atheists, and provoke a formidable social cataclysm, which will demonstrate clearly to the nations, in all its horror, the effect of absolute unbelief, mother of savagery and of the bloodiest disorder. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the mad minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate these destroyers of civilization; and the countless disillusioned adonaites, whose deist soul have up until that time remained without a compass, thirsting for an ideal, but not knowing which God is worthy of tribute, will receive the True Light, by the universal manifestation of the pure Luciferian doctrine, at last made public, an event that will arise from a reactionary movement following the destruction of atheism and adonaism, together at the same time vanquished and exterminated.

Catholics fell in love with Taxil’s work, and a Catholic journalist by the name of Abel Clarin de la Rive became friends with Taxil, believing unreservedly in his revelations about the Masonic threat the Church faced. Taxil authorized de la Rive to publish a quote by Albert Pike alleged by Diana Vaughan, Taxil’s whistleblower, in his 1894 book La Femme et l’Enfant Dans la Franc-Maçonnerie Universelle:

That which we must say to the world is that we worship a god, but it is the god that one adores without superstition. To you, Sovereign Grand Inspectors General, we say this, that you may repeat it to the brethren of the 32nd, 31st and 30th degrees: The masonic Religion should be, by all of us initiates of the higher degrees, maintained in the Purity of the Luciferian doctrine. If Lucifer were not God, would Adonay and his priests calumniate him?

Yes, Lucifer is God, and unfortunately Adonay is also god. For the eternal law is that there is no light without shade, no beauty without ugliness, no white without black, for the absolute can only exist as two gods; darkness being necessary for light to serve as its foil as the pedestal is necessary to the statue, and the brake to the locomotive.

Thus, the doctrine of Satanism is a heresy, and the true and pure philosophical religion is the belief in Lucifer, the equal of Adonay; but Lucifer, God of Light and God of Good, is struggling for humanity against Adonay, the God of Darkness and Evil.

The assault upon Freemasonry drew intense criticism from their ranks, as well as from other esoteric societies. In 1896 Arthur Edward Waite, a British poet and mystic who wrote extensively on the occult, published Devil Worship in France, a comprehensive refutation of Taxil’s allegations.

By 1897 everyone was becoming impatient with Taxil, whose stories had been growing ever more radical and grotesque. They wanted to meet Diana Vaughan, in person, and Taxil eventually obliged.

The Confession

On the evening of April 19, 1897, Taxil held a press conference at the Hall of the Geographic Society in Paris. Many reporters, Catholic priests, Freemasons, monks, and other illustrious figures from around the world were in attendance. After raffling off a typewriter used by Diana Vaughan (the winner being M. Ali Kental, Editor of Ikdam, at Constantinople), Léo Taxil finally addresses his audience.

He reveals there is no Dr. Karl Hacks, there is no Dr. Bataille, there is no Diana Vaughan, there is no Palladium Rite.

“There wasn’t the least masonic plot in this story,” he says, and denies that his conversion to Catholicism was in earnest – all part of the prank, to win the Church’s trust and approbation. Diana Vaughan was a real person, but she was only his typist and collaborator in this colossal fraud designed to deeply embarrass the Catholic Church and become the crown jewel of his anti-clerical work.

Slandering Freemasons was the best way to establish the foundations of the colossal prank of which I savored all the suave happiness in advance. – Léo Taxil

After explaining in immense detail how everything he published on Freemasonry over the last 12 years was a monumental hoax, Taxil concludes his press conference saying, “You were told that Palladism would be knocked down today, better still, it is annihilated, it is no more,” and that “Palladism is now dead for good. Its father just murdered it.” The audience erupts calumniously, with Catholics hissing and screaming, a priest mounts a chair to try and maintain order, and it becomes obvious why Taxil had the attendees check their walking sticks at the door – some would certainly have beaten him to death on the spot.

They ought to have known better, though, as Taxil’s extensive use of the Baphomet throughout the entirety of his hoax was a dead giveaway that not all was as it seemed. Created several decades prior by another Frenchman, Éliphas Lévi, it was clearly stated in the book in which it first appeared that it was not a representation of a demon or the devil, but something far more complex and esoteric. Ultimately, it was Lévi’s attempt at rehabilitating the image of the extinct Knights Templar, who were massacred by the Catholic Church in the year 1312 after a campaign of blood libel, and false confessions obtained by gruesome tortures. Nevertheless, it found great use being circulated by others like Taxil and de la Rive as a demonic idol.

The shock of Taxil’s confession, the entirety of which was published in Parisian newspaper Le Frondeur on April 25, 1897, rocked the world. The same day Le Père Peinard, a weekly Parisian journal for anarchists, published a detailed recounting of the event.

Here is but a sampling of other stories published about Taxil’s infamous confession:

Taxil further elaborated on the intentions behind his grand hoax in a 1906 interview in Volume XXIV of The National Magazine:

The public made me what I am; the arch-liar of the period, for when I first commenced to write against the Masons my object was amusement pure and simple. The crimes I laid at their door were so grotesque, so impossible, so widely exaggerated, I thought everybody would see the joke and give me credit for originating a new line of humor. But my readers wouldn’t have it so; they accepted my fables as gospel truth, and the more I lied for the purpose of showing that I lied, the more convinced became they that I was a paragon of veracity.

Then it dawned upon me that there was lots of money in being a Munchausen of the right kind, and for twelve years I gave it to them hot and strong, but never too hot. When inditing such slush as the story of the devil snake who wrote prophecies on Diana’s back with the end of his tail, I sometimes said to myself: “Hold on, you are going too far,” but I didn’t. My readers even took kindly to the yarn of the devil who, in order to marry a Mason, transformed himself into a crocodile, and, despite the masquerade, played the piano wonderfully well.

One day when lecturing at Lille, I told my audience that I had just had an apparition of Nautilus, the most daring affront on human credulity I had so far risked. But my hearers never turned a hair. “Hear ye, the doctor has seen Nautulius,” they said with admiring glances. Of course no one had a clear idea of who Nautilus was, I didn’t myself, but they assumed that he was a devil.

Ah, the jolly evenings I spent with my fellow authors hatching out new plots, new, unheard of perversions of truth and logic, each trying to outdo the other in organized mystification. I thought I would kill myself laughing at some of the things proposed, but everything went; there is no limit to human stupidity.

Taxil would die ten months later in March 1907. In November of the same year the Sydney-based Catholic Press published an anonymous letter eulogizing Taxil as “The World’s Worst Liar,” and that he had “died despised by those who had known him and by the great world he had cheated,” while calling him a “horrible buffoon,” whose “thrilling fairy tale under the guise of fact took the Catholic world by storm.” More accurately, however, they also called his hoax “the most successful fraud of the nineteenth century,” something Taxil certainly would have taken as a compliment.

It was Taxil’s intent to exploit people’s tendency towards confirmation bias in his hoax, which had succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. However, what he didn’t foresee was that the egos of his victims were so big that they would carry on pushing his fabrications as if nothing had happened. Confession or not, it had to be true.

The World in Chaos

With World War I kicking off in 1914, followed by the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, people were scrambling for a coherent explanation of why so much chaos was being sown around the world. In 1920 a book called The Cause of World Unrest emerged attempting to explain it all. It was an anonymous compilation of essays originally published in the London Morning Post in July of the same year.

In one of the essays we find Taxil’s magisterial hoax cited as truth, describing the chapter already mentioned above from Le Diable au XIXe Siècle about the written plan drawn up on August 15, 1871 by the fictitious Palladian Rite for global destruction. A familiar paragraph from the so-called plan is reproduced in The Cause:

That is why, when the autocratic Empire of Russia will have become the citadel of Papal Christianity (adonaisme papiste), we shall unchain the revolutionary Nihilists and Atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm, which will demonstrate clearly to the nations, in all its horror, the effect of absolute unbelief, mother of savagery and of the most bloody disorder. Then, everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the mad minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate these destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned of Christianity, whose deist soul will up to that moment be without compass, thirsting for an ideal, but not knowing where to bestow their worship, will receive the True Light, by the universal manifestation of the pure Luciferian doctrine, at last made public, a manifestation which will arise from the general movement of reaction following the destruction of Atheism and Christianity, both at the same time vanquished and exterminated.

There is no mention of Taxil’s sensational confession in the pages preceding or following the reproduction of this part of the hoax. It does say in The Cause that this quote and the document it allegedly comes from could be a hoax, but that it nevertheless is quite prophetic.

But was it really? The rising tide of revolutionary socialism in the late 19th century was surely no stranger to Taxil. Marx and Engel’s Communist Manifesto had been in circulation for decades prior to Taxil creating the hoax, and bloody revolution was already being openly discussed. It was only a matter of where it would first emerge, and popular locations for that had already been determined to be Russia or Germany.

The Cause would go on to be used in the 1925 book called The Mystery of Freemasonry Unveiled, published by Cardinal Caro y Rodriguez of Chile. In it, the Cardinal uncritically repeats what he found in The Cause, reproducing verbatim the same paragraph from Taxil’s hoax. How a Catholic Cardinal would not know this was a fabrication is surprising seeing that he would have been nearly thirty years old at the time of Taxil’s confession and by then already an ordained priest.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/16/2023 – 23:55

Strategists Sound Alarm On Dimmer Profit Outlook

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Strategists Sound Alarm On Dimmer Profit Outlook

Earlier today we excerpted from two recent reports, one from BofA and another from Goldman, both of which were rather optimistic when it comes to both Q3 earnings season and corporate profits beyond. Not everyone, however, shares their enthusiasm. According to a duo of far more bearish strategists from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, the outlook for earnings is weakening and could remain subdued.

As the reporting season kicks off, in his latest weekly note (available to pro subscribers) Morgan Stanley’s resident permabear Michael Wilson said the earnings revisions breadth – referring to the number of stocks seeing upgrades versus downgrades – for the S&P 500 has fallen sharply over the past couple of weeks.

And since this is a time of year when earnings revisions tend to see an upward inflection in breadth…

… further underperformance “would be a sign that other cyclical risks including macro headwinds are driving the earnings revisions backdrop,” Wilson wrote in the note.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg’s Sagarika Jaisinghani observes, JPMorgan’s equally bearish strategist Mislav Matejka points to Citigroup’s index of earnings revisions which shows that downgrades have outpaced upgrades for four straight weeks ahead of the reporting season, and expects this trend to continue.

“Most recently, EPS revisions appear to be weakening again in the US and Eurozone,” Matejka wrote in a note. “We think this downtrend could continue.”

The bearish views are in contrast to a more optimistic tone from analysts ahead of the season, which kicked off Friday with banking giants including JPMorgan. Upcoming results will further reveal how companies have managed headwinds such as higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand.

The prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates has unnerved markets this month, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting the highest in more than a decade. Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight, rekindling recession concerns that have been heightened by conflict in the Middle East.

Still, RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina said that the reporting season is off to a good start in terms of stock price reactions, even though earnings-per-share revisions have turned slightly negative and commentary suggests the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop is taking a toll on companies. Out of the few S&P 500 companies which reported so far, 88% have beaten estimates according to Bloomberg data.

Calvasina slightly lifted her S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecast for 2023 and 2024. “Our 2024 forecast assumes a significant moderation in inflation, easing of interest rate pressures in the back half of the year, and sluggish GDP and industrial production forecasts,” she wrote in a note.

To be sure, early results show a “strong start” to the quarter, according to BofA’s Savita Subramanian, who said the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far are tracking a 1% beat led by Banks, with reported results coming in 9% above consensus (+2% ex-Financials).

And while analysts predict S&P 500 companies will report a 0.8% drop in third-quarter earnings from a year ago before a 6.2% rebound in the final three months of the year, we are likely to see a sharp hockeystick during earnings season due to the usual sandbagging and expectation cuts ahead of earnings to make beats more likely.

“We look for company guidance to provide more clarity on 4Q expectations, which should in turn set the tone for the 2024 revisions,” Wilson wrote.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/16/2023 – 23:35