This morning yields are once again rising, with the Treasury 30 year hitting highs of 4.856%, a level it hasn’t touched since 2007.

The move sure seems to support a notion Rick Santelli laid out yesterday on Fast Money that bond vigilantes are back in full force. Santelli even predicted that 10 year yields could touch as high as 13%.

“In the grand scheme of things I think rates are going higher,” Santelli says.

“We have a lot of potential room to the upside,” he says, drawing a chart of bond technicals. “Worst case scenario, where are Treasury rates going to go? 10 year I’d say in the next seven years you should be able to see 13.5% or 14%.”

“If you want to know where inflation is taking markets and why, just look at government spending. Vigilantes have new horses and they are riding and I really do think that is the answer. We are spending too much, we are not learning to cut back.”

“I think we’re out of control as we approach a $2 trillion deficit and this is the market’s way to get Washington’s attention,” Santelli adds.

[ZH: Food for thought if, as Santelli warns, we are entering a new cycle…]

When Melissa Lee asks about whether or not the Fed would then engage in yield curve control (because that is, of course, the first line of thinking on a CNBC desk), Santelli responds: “You can squeeze a water balloon seven ways from Sunday but eventually it pops out somewhere. They are running out of little tricks to pull out of their bag.”

“Quantitative easing removed many signals from the market that now it’s trying to put back in place. And they can do as they wish. If they keep tinkering with this, the problem is there are too many large economies in the same boat. And who’s going to end up buying this paper?”

Anchor Tim Seymour then asks about the BOJ losing control of the bond market (an idea he openly mocked on-air in 2016). He calls the BOJ “the biggest wild card” and suggests that yield curve control could be over. Santelli responds: “Bank of Japan could actually pull the plug that drains the water on everybody’s bathtub.”

Here’s the full video:

Could 10-year Treasury rates hit 13%?@RickSantelli charts the path to much, much higher yields, and warns that the Fed is running out of tricks pic.twitter.com/51DfL2R6HF

— CNBC’s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) October 2, 2023

Said one astute viewer…

Gotta love how @CNBC allows him to talk about this so long as he frames it with yields “burning to the upside” and not frame it as most people would, bonds are crashing in price.

— piker (@somniummortus) October 2, 2023

By Alejandra Salgado of SupplyChainDive

Cargo volumes at the Port of New York and New Jersey fell 21% YoY to 662,740 TEUs in August as the seaport adjusts to lower retail volumes.

“Ahead of preparation for the holiday shopping season, U.S. retailers continued to draw from their overstock of inventory that was delivered during the record cargo surge over the past two years,” the port said in a press release.

The port also saw cargo activity drop 8.6% compared to July 2023 figures, when volumes reached 725,479 total TEUs. Compared to pre-pandemic figures, the East Coast port saw volumes fall 3% compared to August 2019.

Despite the comparative declines, the port authority said the seaport had handled 2.7% more volumes year-to-date by August than it did in 2019.

Cargo volumes by the numbers

Container volumes processed at the Port of New York and New Jersey in August 2023

Former UK defense secretary Ben Wallace in a Sunday op-ed for The Telegraph urged the West not to pause support for Ukraine for even a single day, writing, “The world is watching to see if the West has the resolve to stand up for our values and the rules-based system. What we do now for Ukraine will set the direction for all of our security for years to come.”

Wallace’s piece is unironically entitled Ukraine is winning. Now let’s finish the job and claims that victory for Kyiv is not only possibly but even imminent if only the West keeps up its support and the Zelensky government follows NATO’s guidance. Wallace admits that the question of manpower is not in Ukraine’s favor, however.

Most surprising is what the man who was UK defense secretary throughout most of the war (in office until Aug.31st of this year) had to say about the status of Ukraine’s forces. He called for Zelensky to enact a different policy and to essentially inject younger blood into the fight.

“The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40. I understand President Zelensky’s desire to preserve the young for the future, but… just as Britain did in 1939 and 1941, perhaps it is time to reassess the scale of Ukraine’s mobilization,” Wallace wrote

He said this is a major issue that still remains and must be corrected, yet still “slowly but surely” Ukraine’s forces have been “adapting tactics, absorbing lessons, and making the best of the equipment we have all gifted them.” Wallace argues that Zelensky must mobilize at a faster rate and in greater numbers if it wants to keep up with Russia.

But despite the elderly front lines, Wallace still argues that more advanced weapons, including long-range missiles, must be pumped into the conflict: 

Putin is desperately grasping at the final two things that can save him – time and the splitting of the international community. Britain can do something about both. We must help Ukraine maintain its momentum – and that will require more munitions, ATACMSs and Storm Shadows. And the best way to keep the international community together is the demonstration of success.

Of course, Wallace’s call to find younger men to do the fighting suggests tragically that many have already been killed or severely wounded. In reality it’s a cynical call for Kiev to throw more lives into the meat grinder, as opposed to trying to open up peace negotiations.

“Zelensky must start mobilizing young Ukrainians more” -Ben Wallace, former UK Defense Secretary.

He proposes active recruitment and mobilization of young people into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

💬 ”The average age of soldiers on the front line is over 40. I understand… pic.twitter.com/DVt7FQMEtV

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 2, 2023

This is also a recipe for authorities to continue brutally rounding up men from off the street for forced conscription, as has been documented throughout much of the conflict.

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro soar in popularity, the drugs are facing increasing scrutiny by regulators over reports of suicidal thoughts.

A recent Reuters analysis reveals that over half of the adverse event reports by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration describe suicidal thoughts arising soon after starting or ramping up doses of these injectable drugs.

President Joe Biden is planning to hold phone calls with allies possibly as early as Tuesday, with an aim of reassuring them his administration will remain committed to supporting Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

The White House has further said it will unveil another defense package for Ukraine “soon” – which would be part of previously approved funds – in order to “signal our continued support.” This comes immediately on the heels of Biden being forced by Congressional Republican holdouts to sign a stopgap funding bill that did not include aid for Ukraine.

Already as of last Friday, the Pentagon had informed Congress that it has “exhausted nearly all available security assistance funding for Ukraine” – including air defense weaponry and ammunition, leaving Ukraine more vulnerable as the Russian onslaught continues. Pentagon estimates indicate there are “months left” in its available supply of weapons for Kiev.

The Wall Street Journal is out with some fresh specifics, confirming that the Pentagon still has over $5 billion remaining to provide weaponry based on what’s been approved in this past year, with Biden officials saying it’s “unclear how long that money could last.” The report indicated that figure is roughly equivalent to the amount of weaponry sent over the last six months.

But any stoppage in funding would have more severe impact on Ukraine’s longer term defense, US officials say per the WSJ: 

But another pot of money the U.S. had been using for a longer-term program to refurbish Ukraine’s military and make it more compatible with North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces, the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, is empty, administration officials said. And an account used to replenish the Defense Department’s own arsenal after the provision of U.S. arms to Ukraine is now down to about $1.6 billion—insufficient to keep the Pentagon whole, officials said.

Despite dire warnings from the Biden administration, the threat to security assistance for Ukraine is more likely to emerge in the long term, and U.S. officials say the political uncertainty in Washington sends a terrible signal to the international community that President Biden has rallied in support of Kyiv’s fight against Russia. In addition, Ukraine’s supporters fear Russian President Vladimir Putin will come to believe he can wait out the U.S.

The mention of the account used to replenish America’s own arsenal being drained should be most alarming for those who put “America first”. Still, one official told the Journal that “Nobody is hitting the panic button over here.”

Also on Monday, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said of what’s left of approved funding “is enough for us to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs for a bit longer,” while qualifying, “But it is not a long-term solution.”

She also took a moment in an afternoon press briefing to say the Biden administration won’t let Putin be confirmed in his belief that he can “outlast” US resolve…

🚨#BREAKING: The Pentagon has issued a warning to Congress, that it they are running low on funds for replacing weapons sent to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the White House spokesperson has issued a statement, “Putin believes he can outlast us, but he is mistaken. We will soon deliver… pic.twitter.com/ArVpPOkESn

— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) October 2, 2023

European leaders have at the same time sought to assure Ukraine that even if US support wanes, the EU’s will not. EU foreign ministers took part in a “historic” meeting in the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday, and said it was a “demonstration of our resolute and lasting support for Ukraine, until it can win.”

Authored by Michael Wing via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Almost 300 years ago, someone implanted what now might be the world’s oldest time capsule, hidden high upon the pregnant finial of a church spire in Poland.

It was announced by the Museum of Wschowa [Ssh-hova] Land on Thursday, Sept. 21, that the round copper bulb atop St. Stanislaus parish church in the small town of Wschowa was brought down and was found to contain four separate parcels from three distinct centuries.

The oldest and most impressive was a heavily corroded copper box with the date 1726 embossed on the lid, closed by a hook. A smaller box made of sheet iron decorated with a pointed cross was found attached.

Additional dates were stamped into the larger box with 1786 on the bottom and 1884 in three locations, including on the lid, demarcating when the capsule was believed to have been opened before.

Some of the boxes’ contents were dated nearly 300 years old. The researchers had found a literal time capsule that had been placed at several different times, starting from when a reconstruction had repaired the church after a fire in the late 1600s.

The large box contained finely scripted, yet somewhat damaged, papers sealed with official wafers. Parcels from 1726, 1786, 1884, and 1914 were included in the larger box, as well as a pair of relics:

Two reliquaries, from 1884 and 1914, with descriptions indicated their contents to be of soil collected from the grave of St. John of Nepomuk.

A gunshot appears to have damaged the larger copper box and some of its contents, according to the museum, as a bullet hole was found in the bottom and a small-caliber bullet inside, no less.

The adjacent smaller iron container held some old coins from the 1800s wrapped in newspapers in two separate packages.

All of the documents inside the time capsule were photographically documented by researchers. The museum says the time capsule might be even older than the one found in Boston atop Faneuil Hall—once believed to be the world’s oldest.

As the finial ball is being prepared to be hoisted back up the tower with a modern time capsule, the contents and original casket will join the museum’s collection once conservation works have been completed, the museum stated.

“We found the capsule in June 22, 2023, during the dismantling of the ball for conservation works,” conservation supervisor Marcin Pechacz told The Epoch Times. “What was surprising was the age of the find, its form as a relatively large casket, and its rich contents.”

From 2021, St. Stanislaus Church had undergone restoration mainly focused on its brick façade. The spire was not forgotten, though; before witnesses, including the parish priest, the orb containing the time capsule was removed and brought down, the museum stated.

Work is currently being done on the tower’s finial, ball, and flag.

The parish church had previously burnt down in 1685 before it was rebuilt between 1720-1726, records show. Considerable work went into its superstructure after the fire including the decoration of the tower, which hadn’t been covered in copper until then.

The church had seen turbulence before then. It was destroyed a number of times, including in the years 1435 and 1529, and fell into Protestant hands during the Reformation before being returned to the Catholic community in 1604.

On Monday German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock issued an ultra-provocative statement which Moscow is sure to take as “fighting words”. What’s more is that the statement came while she was in Ukraine’s capital for an unprecedented meeting of EU foreign ministers, who have newly committed themselves to supporting Kiev for as long as it takes, even as Washington appears to be stepping back. She said that the EU bloc will soon encompass lands “from Lisbon to Luhansk.” 

 “Ukraine’s future lies in the European Union, our community of freedom, and it will soon stretch from Lisbon to Luhansk,” she said during a press conference. “It [Ukraine] also broadens its path to the EU with every village, every meter that it liberates, and every meter where it saves its people.”

Ukraine had applied for EU membership on February 28, 2022 – and for months had urged to be fast tracked, however, a series of high level firings within the Zelensky administration over a series of corruption scandals has underscored once again Ukraine’s historic place as among Europe’s most corrupt governments. European officials have in the recent past said Ukraine’s membership would take years if not decades.

Baerbock’s mention of the EU one day stretching across Luhansk was directly aimed at Moscow, given that a year ago it declared the oblast as among the four territories united to the Russian Federation after a popular referendum organized and overseen by pro-Kremlin officials.

At this point in the war, there’s consensus among war observers that neither side would agree to a ceasefire or peace negotiations short of territorial concessions. But President Zelensky has repeatedly vowed to never give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. At the same time Russian President Putin has previously called the inhabitants of these annexed territories “our citizens forever”.

The Kremlin’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, as well as Russian media, responded with the following push-back:

Lisbon is the capital of Portugal, which along with Ireland and part of Spain makes up the EU’s western edge. Lugansk is the main city of the People’s Republic of Lugansk, which officially became part of the Russian state last year, together with the People’s Republic of Donetsk and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. The move followed referendums that saw the populace in the four regions overwhelmingly support reunification with Moscow. Ukraine and its Western backers refused to recognize the results of the votes.

“It’s either us joining the EU or she forgot about the requirement to turn by 360 degrees,” Zakharova wrote on Telegram in response to Baerbock’s statement.

And a separate RT headline had characterized Baerbock’s words as follows: Germany promises to extend EU into Russia. Clearly, neither the EU nor NATO is encouraging Kiev to engage in peace negotiations at this point, despite the Ukrainian offensive having failed. 

Meanwhile, Germany’s military exports to Ukraine have surged fourfold this year, as CNBC tallies that “Ukraine accounted for 3.3 billion euros ($3.48 billion) out of Germany’s total value of authorised military exports of 8.76 billion euros in the first nine months of the year.” And by comparison, “for the same period last year, 775 million euros’ worth of equipment had been approved for Ukraine,” the report notes.

Via Remix News,

Russia will hold its first nationwide drill simulating widespread nuclear strikes on the country, daily Magyar Hírlap writes.

The one-day nuclear attack exercise is based on the assumption that NATO will launch a nuclear strike on Russia, destroying 70 percent of Russian housing and life-support facilities. In the scenario, martial law is imposed in the country and a full-scale mobilization is ordered.

The test will also model the secondary threat posed by damage to nuclear power plants and other key facilities.

State and regional authorities will have to organize emergency rescue teams to provide food, medical supplies and protection against radiation.

According to the preparatory document, there is a need to prepare for an escalation of war, including a global conflict involving nuclear powers.

The permanent relocation of the population from the life-threatened zone will be similar to Chernobyl, involving an internal population transfer on an unprecedented scale.

Putin, meanwhile, is moving to one of his nuclear bunkers around the country to escape the simulated nuclear Armageddon. In the event of a real nuclear war, he has a fleet of “Doomsday” Il-80 Maxdome aircraft that can act as an air control center.

The exercise is being held four days before Putin’s 71st birthday.

Not only is the national disaster exercise seen as a training exercise for nuclear war, but preparations are also underway for a nuclear explosion test in the Arctic Circle.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Soygu visited Novaya Zemlya in August, signaling that tests could soon resume after a break of several decades.

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Why would the current administration in Yerevan ever care for a few lost souls in Artsakh?

In the end, Nagorno-Karabakh – or the Artsakh Republic – is no more.

It will cease to exist on 1 January 2024 – also the first day of the Russian presidency of BRICS 11.

All autonomous state structures will be dissolved – according to a decree signed by the head of the Republic, Samvel Shahramanyan.

The population – roughly 147,000, 99% of them Armenian Christians – has a choice that’s not really a choice: “familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration presented by the Republic of Azerbaijan” and stay, or leave to Armenia for good.

Predictably, the exodus is on: an interminable serpent of vehicles congesting the mountain roads of a beautiful landscape where generations of Armenians lived for centuries. As of Thursday night, over 70,000 Armenians had left towards the Syunik region.

The Azeri government in Baku sent police/security forces to Stepanakert. Former Foreign Minister Ruben Vardanyan, an oligarch, was detained by Azeri security while trying to leave for Armenia, mingling with refugees. He had renounced Russian citizenship last year when he moved to work in Artsakh. He’ll probably be freed.

Others won’t be so lucky. Everyone leaving is being exhaustively searched. Baku has warned that every Artsakh notable – political and military – will be captured.

This is how it sadly ends: the story of how a bunch of crooks – Team Pashinyan in Yerevan – profited personally from a geopolitical pretext.

Armenian PM Pashinyan announced that in a few days he’ll consider there are no more Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Translation: those that decided to stay will be considered to be Azerbaijanis.

Yet for Baku, Armenians from Artsakh will always remain Armenians – and thus an object of suspicion.

It’s all about the Zangezur corridor

Armenian priests are starting to ask for people power to come up with regime change in Yerevan to save the nation. It’s clear that Syunik will be the next Armenian territory to fall – considering both Azerbaijan and Turkey have their eyes on its strategic position. If Baku takes Syunik, Armenian Orthodox Christian priests will definitely be in hot water.

The crucial fact is that the November 2020 armistice between Armenia and Azerbaïjan, with Russian involvement, was not respected either by Baku or Yerevan.

Moscow didn’t do much except showing that Pashinyan gave Artsakh away to Baku – which in itself is outrageous and a violation of the armistice: imagine that the object of a war was relinquished by the attacked country to the attacker.

What Baku really wanted was the opening of the Zangezur corridor – and that was also part of the armistice. The corridor was supposed to be controlled by Russian guards.

Yerevan did nothing about it. Baku for its part kept provoking skirmishes in Artsakh and Syunik. And on top of it did not respect a clause stipulating the building of a road allowing Armenians to travel back and forth to Artsakh. In fact Baku blocked Artsakh by taking over the Lachin road.

As corridors go, Zangezur is the proverbial Chinese win-win.

Azerbaijan links with its Nakhitchevan enclave and Turkiye. Russia gets a road that goes through Baku and Yerevan. Armenia opens itself to international trade. And Iran is satisfied that the manager will be the former owner of the place: Russia.

Ay, there’s the rub. The usual suspects were not happy that Russian guards would be back in Armenia. So they sabotaged this clause via their agent Pashinyan.

The record shows how Team Pashinyan behaved these past few months: Armenia’s First Lady visited Kiev; Yerevan transferred “humanitarian aid” to Ukraine; there were joint military exercises with the U.S.; frantic back and forth by U.S. and EU politicos and NGOs.

Relations with Moscow are deteriorating fast. Yerevan – a juicy strategic target – is being taken over by the Hegemon and its vassals. It’s not an accident that Yerevan hosts the second largest American embassy in the world.

So only one thing is certain: the Transcaucasus will continue to be on fire.

Empire of Chaos strikes again

It’s not clear what will happen to Zangezur – and if and when Pashinyan will act on it. There’s always a – remote – possibility that Pashinyan, egged on by his Western handlers, may try to strike a deal with Aliyev to leave Russia out.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has not minced its words, noting how Yerevan “flip flopped on policy and sought Western support over working closely with Russia and Azerbaijan”. And how in meetings in Prague and Brussels under the EU, Pashynian “acknowledged Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, but failed to address the rights and safety of the Karabakh Armenians.”

The Foreign Ministry all but warns Pashynian that “unlike the West which has become quite skilled in organising color revolutions, Moscow does not engage in such activities.”

At the same time, “a frenzied anti-Russian campaign has swept the Armenian media at the behest of the authorities. We are convinced that the Armenian leadership is making a huge mistake by deliberately attempting to sever Armenia’s multifaceted and centuries-old ties with Russia, making the country a hostage to Western geopolitical games. We are confident that the overwhelming majority of the Armenian population realises this as well.”

Well, USAID head Samantha “Batshit Crazy” Power is in Armenia right now, “affirming U.S. support for Armenia’s democracy, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity and commitment to addressing humanitarian needs stemming from Nagorno-Karabakh”.

Nonsense. This is all about the Empire of Chaos conquering a strategic asset close to Russia: Armenia is a member of the CSTO and the EAEU. There are more than 25 USAID projects being implemented in Armenia. Why would the current administration in Yerevan ever care for a few lost souls in Artsakh?

Philadelphia Police are seeking help from the community trying to find a motorcyclist who jumped through the back window of a vehicle on Sunday night while two innocent children sat in the back seat. 

On Monday morning a video started making its way around social media showing a gang of motorcycle and quad riders in Philadelphia swarming a vehicle stopped in traffic outside of City Hall in Center City, Philadelphia. 

The video — captured by a tourist sitting atop of a double decker bus — shows a motorcycle rider stop alongside a sedan before jumping on the back of the vehicle and busting out its back window. While jumping, the perpetrator’s gun fell from his pants. The female driver got out of the vehicle to confront the biker, who then headbutted her with his helmet. 

Almost all of the vehicles in question did not have license plates, though several did but were affixed with tape to hide their plate numbers. 

Fox 29’s Steve Keeley, who is one of the only journalists in the city with the courage to confront the crime epidemic the city is undergoing (and who has been villainized for it), reported: “9pm last night, George Colony from Florida watched helplessly as a male on motorcycle kicked in back windshield where two kids sitting.”

Keeley also posted video of the incident:

WATCH as a tourist aboard top level of a Philadelphia double decker sightseeing bus records on the street next to Philadelphia City Hall. 9pm last night, George Colony from Florida watched helplessly as a male on motorcycle kicked in back windshield where two kids sitting. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/YzCQunfgs1

— Steve Keeley (@KeeleyFox29) October 2, 2023

“He had a gun that fell out of his waistband as he jumped down off her car. He then headbutted her with the visor of his helmet, as she fights back despite him being armed & she being way outnumbered,” Keeley wrote. 

He wrote that the woman is an Uber Eats driver who brings her kids with her because a babysitter is “too costly”.

He noted that Philadelphia Police are seeking information on the motorcycle rider:

Now, @PhillyPolice are now looking for the armed motorcyclist who attacked working woman with her two kids in her car. They have enhanced stills from George Coloney’s video. Maybe parents or someone else recognize his helmet or his shirt or his bike & call in tips on turn him in. pic.twitter.com/coOFGtWs3N

— Steve Keeley (@KeeleyFox29) October 2, 2023

Recall, Philadelphia just underwent mass looting last week that resulted in stores closing. Not unlike the crowd on Sunday, last week a crowd of 100 young people looted retail shops. 

Police Commissioner John Stanford said the teens began looting stores around 2200 ET, which sparked a massive police presence across Walnut Street between 15th and 18th streets. 

“What we had tonight was a bunch of criminal opportunists take advantage of a situation and make an attempt to destroy our city,” Stanford told reporters last week.

He said, “It’s not going to be tolerated.” 

We reported earlier this month that Philadelphia’s police commissioner, Danielle Outlaw – who has overseen years of surging crime, property destruction and violent attacks in the Northeast city – has had enough and was stepping down. 

After overseeing a massive crime wave in Philadelphia, Mayor Jim Kenney praised her work in the city, focusing not on the merits of her work (of which there are few), but her “reform” of “racism and gender discrimination”, stating: “Commissioner Outlaw has worked relentlessly for three and a half years during an unprecedented era in our city and a number of crisis situations, and she deserves praise for her commitment to bring long-overdue reform to the Department after years of racism and gender discrimination prior to her appointment.” 

It doesn’t seem like any left leaning public officials are actually interested in their jobs in Philadelphia – perhaps, rather, just collecting their pensions. Recall in 2022 we wrote when Mayor Kenney said he was “looking forward to the time he will no longer lead the city”.

The below suspect is wanted in connection to an aggravated assault and vandalism that occurred on 10/01/23 at 1400 S. Penn Sq. at appx 8:45PM. If you have information about this suspect, please call or text 215-686-TIPS(8477). You can remain anonymous. pic.twitter.com/BQT6fdYVwr

— Philadelphia Police Department (@PhillyPolice) October 2, 2023