Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

Podcaster Joe Rogan has predicted that conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson could become the U.S. president in 2028 if the former Fox News host were to join the White House race.

During the Aug. 3 episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience,” Mr. Rogan said that Mr. Carlson could succeed Donald Trump, if the former president wins back the White House in 2024, to secure eight years of consistent policies.

“Let’s just make a scenario, Trump wins in 2024. He has four years. If Tucker went to run in 2028, he could win, because it would be kind of carrying those policies,” Mr. Rogan told Patrick Bet-David, CEO of online content company Valuetainment.

Mr. Rogan added, “But also, he’s sort of a no-nonsense guy who exposes [expletive], you know in a pretty humorous way and a very insightful and biting way,” he added.

Tucker Carlson could become The President of the United States of America as soon as 2028 according to Joe Rogan and Patrick Bet-David.#Carlson2028 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/V5HeW1ytRA

— Ole Murica (@OleMurica) August 11, 2023

Before being fired by Fox News in April, Mr. Carlson was the host of “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” one of cable’s most popular programs. It was the second most-watched cable news program in 2022, drawing an average of 3.3 million viewers per night.

Reacting to Mr. Carlson’s departure, Mr. Trump said he was “shocked” and “surprised.” At the time, Mr. David said he had tried to court the former Fox News host with a $100 million deal over five years, plus a seat on his company’s board.

On June 6, Mr. Carlson released the first episode of his new show on Twitter, now known as X. The first show, which drew more than 85 million views in less than 24 hours, has now been seen over 120 million times.

Last month, the former Fox News anchor declared his fondness for the former president, during an interview with liberal podcaster Russell Brand.

“I love Trump, personally,” Mr. Carlson said.

“I think looking back on this 10 years from now, assuming we’re still around, I think we’re going see Trump’s emergence as the most significant thing to happen in American politics in 100 years, because he reoriented the Republican Party against the wishes of Republican leaders.”

Mr. Carlson applauded the former president’s stance on the war in Ukraine. The GOP’s leading 2024 candidate has said that he could end Russia’s invasion within “24 hours” if he gets reelected in 2024.

“Trump is the only person with stature in the Republican Party, really, who’s saying, wait a second, you know, why are we supporting an endless war in Ukraine?” Mr. Carlson said.

He added, “Leaving aside whether Trump’s gonna get the nomination or get elected or would be a good president … All I can say at this point is I’m so grateful that he has that position. He’s right and everyone in Washington is wrong.”

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson speaks at the Turning Point Action Conference in West Palm Beach, Fla., on July 15, 2023. (Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images)

In response, Mr. Trump reposted a short clip of Mr. Carlson’s comments on his Truth Social account and wrote, “Thank you Tucker. So many lives wasted, so many lives to be saved!”

As for the 2024 presential race, Mr. Rogan did not envision a Republican candidate running against the former president and winning the general election.

“I think no one is going to run against Trump in the Republican side and win, because you’re not going to get the Trump supporters,” Mr. Rogan said.

“You can’t beat that guy. You just can’t.”

According to the latest national survey (pdf) by Cygnal conducted from Aug. 1 to Aug. 3, Trump leads the GOP field with 53 percent support, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy with 11 percent support.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely seen as the biggest challenger to Mr. Trump, is estimated to be in third place with 10 percent support. The poll noted that Mr. DeSantis “has plummeted from having 29 percent of the vote in March.”

Former President Donald Trump is apparently going to be indicted under the RICO (Racketeer Influenced And Corrupt Organizations Act) statute, according to a document which was briefly posted on the Fulton County, Georgia court’s website.

The document, dated Aug. 14 and titled “Trump” cites the case as “open.”

It was quickly taken down:

As Bloomberg noted earlier, the Fulton County case will likely echo allegations in the indictment of Trump in Washington, brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Trump is accused in that case of trying to overturn the 2020 election nationwide, and his actions in Georgia feature prominently in the alleged conspiracy.

District Attorney Fani Willis, a Democrat who took office days before the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, had extensive details on Trump’s actions in Georgia when she opened her probe in February 2021. Those details included Trump’s effort to pressure Raffensperger, asking him and others to “find” just enough votes to overcome his loss, even though a recount had already been conducted.

Willis has a history of prosecuting cases – from teachers to rap music stars – under Georgia’s version of the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization act, or RICO – a statute often associated with organized crime. She may use the law against Trump and allies as well.

Meanwhile, the streets around the Fulton County courthouse in Atlanta were lined with orange barricades in anticipation of potential civil unrest over the indictment. Armed sheriff’s deputies are also patrolling the area 24/7, while vehicles from several law enforcement agencies lined the streets.

Security measures extended blocks away to the Georgia State Capitol, where the street nearest the entrance was sealed off. The gold-domed building was devoid of tourists and many staffers were working from home amid renovations. At nearby City Hall, no one was seen entering or leaving the building in the middle of a workday, though the office of Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens said city’s headquarters is “open for business.”

One sheriff’s deputy standing guard said he’d never seen such an extensive security operation in 30 years on the job. The officer said one priority will be protecting protesters who may clash with each other if Trump appears in court. –Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg, DA Fani Willis is expected to present the case to a grand jury as soon as the coming week.

Trump is accused of trying to goad Georgia officials into ‘finding’ votes for him (when, in context, Trump was implying they were hiding votes). Trump has denied wrongdoing.

Authored by Tsvetana Parskova via OilPrice.com,

• Russia may have earned an additional $1.2 billion in the three months to July by exploiting a loophole in the G7 oil price cap.

• While Russian producers have been selling their crude to India at below the price cap, they have overcharged for shipping costs.

• Russia’s export revenues rose by $2.5 billion from June but they were $4.1 billion lower compared to July 2022.

Russian producers have been selling their crude oil to India at prices below the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel, but since shipping costs are not included in this price ceiling, Russia has been overcharging for freight costs and getting more revenue from oil trade, a Financial Times analysis showed this weekend.

FT has analyzed the fees and charges on tankers leaving the Baltic Sea ports in Russia for India.

The findings suggest that the overcharging for shipping costs, plus the fees for Russia-linked tankers, may have boosted Russia’s oil trade revenues by a combined $1.2 billion in May, June, and July.

The loophole in the price cap is that it does not include freight costs. So Russian sellers, traders, and Russia-linked tanker operators have been overcharging for the shipping of the crude, inflating Russian revenues from oil sales despite the fact that it appears that the cargoes were sold below the price cap.

In June, India’s crude oil imports from Russia were estimated to have been the cheapest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The average cost of a barrel of Russian crude that landed at India’s ports in June was at $68.17, per data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry cited by Bloomberg. The price exceeds the $60 price cap set by the G7, but the cap does not include shipping.  

Most of India’s purchases of Russian crude oil are being done on a delivered basis inclusive of freight, insurance, and other costs.

Russia’s crude oil and refined products exports remained steady at some 7.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, while higher oil prices and narrower price differentials for Russian crude pushed Moscow’s revenues higher compared to June, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Russia’s export revenues, at $15.3 billion in July, rose by $2.5 billion from June, but they were $4.1 billion lower compared to July 2022, the agency’s estimates showed.

In response to  Friday’s announcement of a special counsel in the Hunter Biden investigation top House Democrat Jamie Raskin of Maryland conceded on Sunday that Hunter did a “lot of really unlawful and wrong things.“

“David Weiss, the U.S. attorney for Delaware, who had been nominated by Donald Trump, can make the decisions about what to charge, where to charge, and when to charge,” Raskin told ABC’s “This Week.”

“And with the collapse of the plea agreement that he had apparently worked out with Hunter Biden, now he wants to be certain that he’s got the authority to go bring charges wherever he wants.”

According to Raskin, Hunter “did a lot of really unlawful and wrong things,” while also a drug addict.

“We’ve all seen clear that this guy was addicted to drugs and did a lot of really unlawful and wrong things. We have said, ‘Let the justice system run its course,’” Rep. Raskin tells @JonKarl after special counsel appointed to investigate Hunter Biden. https://t.co/dFkCPo5IJW pic.twitter.com/I4FnMtYky3

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) August 13, 2023

The announcement that Delaware US Attorney David Weiss would become special counsel came in the wake of congressional testimony from IRS whistleblowers who allege bias and favoritism have tainted the Hunter Biden probe – something Raskin admitted was “bumpy” despite maintaining faith in the system. 

“This is why we have a Justice Department. Let’s just let them do their job,” said Raskin,

Even trust fund Trump impeachment operative Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) admitted the Hunter situation isn’t great – but shielded President Biden from allegations of involvement in Hunter’s affairs.

“I think that same witness also made very clear that they never discussed business [and] that Hunter Biden was trying to promote an illusion of access to his father for his own reasons,” said Goldman on CNN‘s “State of the Union.”

“That’s Hunter Biden. And you can make it whatever judgment you want to make about whether that was appropriate or not,” he added, emphasizing that the “only official action” that Joe Biden took regarding Hunter’s business dealings was to push for the ouster of Ukrainian prosecutor Victor Shokin, who was investigating Hunter’s employer, Burisma Holdings.

“It was detrimental to Burisma as Devon Archer, this new star witness for the Republicans, said because the Burisma had the corrupt prosecutor general — and I quote — the witness under control,” said Goldman, adding “If Hunter Biden has committed crimes, he should be charged with them. I’m a Democrat saying that.”

“Shouldn’t President Biden have realized what Hunter was doing here — getting on the phone, talking speakerphone with his business associates — did he, at the very least, show a major lapse of judgment?”

Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman: “They never discussed business!” 🤡 pic.twitter.com/Mx3RnCKYyg

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 13, 2023

Authored by Steve Cortes via American Greatness,

Corporate Media really REALLY wants you to pretend that the Biden economy is just great. Of course, the legacy media complex serves as a public relations arm of the Biden White House specifically, and the Ruling Class generally.

But this new propaganda campaign on the economy fails miserably, because Americans grasp far too well the harsh reality of their own financial status and outlook. Nevertheless, Joe Biden decided to adopt the term Bidenomics in a June speech.

That term of derision has been widely used by populists to assail the failings of Biden’s economy, especially the record two-year stretch of plunging real wages, meaning pay adjusted for the costs of goods and services.

Biased Media

Since Biden embraced that term, media watchdog group MRC tracked mentions on CNN. A whopping 79% of the reports were positive, with such glowing praise for the economy as “a lot to be proud of.” Over at MSNBC, a similar story. On “Morning Joe,” the “Reverend” Al Sharpton claimed that Biden “clearly is doing his job. Look at what he’s done to the economy.”

Woe to any viewer accepting economic advice or analysis from Sharpton. For that matter, perhaps skip his spiritual counsel as well, since the so-called “reverend” was “ordained” at the age of 10.

Regardless, here is the on-the-ground reality of the U.S. economy under Biden, using data and evidence, with citations and charts.

Unlike the corporate media, we patriotic populists must assess the economy through a dispassionate lens, identify the key problems, and then propose workable solutions, especially into the 2024 election season. We did not make this mess, but we must rise to the task of fixing it, anyway.

How bad is the economy?

Well, a staggering 88% of Americans report that their personal financial situation is wither falling behind, or holding steady, per Fox News polling. This malaise largely flows from inflation, fueled by Biden’s exorbitant borrowing and spending. Shockingly, only 16% of Americans say that their wages can keep pace with key prices galloping higher, according to Investors Business Daily’s survey.

This pessimism is based in reality, as shown by key Main Street metrics.

Main Street Reality

The National Federation of Independent Business has surveyed small business entrepreneurs and owners for almost five decades. The long-term average for that poll on small business optimism is 98. The most recent read for NFIB was a dreadful 91, a minor bounce from the depths of recent months – but still lingering near the decade low print of 89 from this Spring. For context, small businesses now are as worried as they were during the worst days of the Spring 2020 lockdowns.

Many small businesses are consumer-facing, the mom-and-pop stores and restaurants that comprise a key social and economic fabric of communities. Sadly, for these operators, Bidenomics crushes consumer sentiment and shrinks the discretionary budget of most households.

As a result, see this chart (below) on the massive breakdown in the widely watched Redbook Retail activity index, which just went negative. As the chart displays, the only other negative reads were during the Great Recession of 2008-09, and during the Covid lockdowns.

That retail pain will likely persist, taking a look further back in the supply chain. Specifically, at the wholesale level, the shipping of goods falls off a cliff, as evidenced by the LMI Logistics Index. This chart tracks demand for both warehousing and transportation, especially trucking.

It just hit an all-time low and has plunged downward for a record six months in a row. Such a move portends very poorly for the Christmas shopping season, because a lot of those advance orders typically begin shipping now.

Just a few days after a somewhat subdued CPI print prompted many analysts to erroneously declare a “mission accomplished” for the Fed because the lagged YoY change in rent inflation was sliding – even though as we explained rents are not only rising again for 6 months in a row, but are about to hit all time highs again…

… this morning the New York Fed demonstrated once again that there is ample confusion when it comes to the difference between a change in prices and change in the annual change of prices, when its latest consumer poll found that Americans expected weaker inflation over the next few years – including expectations for the lowest increase in rents since  January 2021 – while also marking up their own views of their personal financial situations.

In its latest survey of consumer expectations, the regional Fed bank reported that respondents to its poll said inflation a year from now will stand at 3.55% compared to an expectation of 3.83% in June; this was the lowest reading in over two years, since April 2021. Expectations at the three- and five-year horizons both moderated to 2.9% from 3%, the New York Fed said.

The improvement in the short-term inflation outlook was “broad based” across demographic groups, and consumers said they expect smaller price increases for virtually all essential living expenses.

In keeping with the overall erroneous “mission accomplished” sentiment, the NY Fed found that in July the public predicted lower rates of inflation for gasoline, food, medical costs, college costs and rent, with that last measure ebbing to its lowest point since January 2021. Specifically, over the next year consumers expect gasoline prices to rise 4.52%; food prices to rise 5.17%; medical costs to rise 8.41%; the price of a college education to rise 8.01%; rent prices to rise 9.01%.

Meanwhile, the expected rise in home prices moved to 2.8% in July from 2.9% in June

Lower inflation expectations usually means a more bullish outlook, and sure enough households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved dramatically, with the share of respondents expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.

Elsewhere, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.68% vs 11.99% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

The sharp moderation in inflation (which should have been obvious to all, as we reported two months ago in “CPI Set For Historic Drop Over “Next Two Months“) has raised question as to whether the Fed will need to hike interest rates again after lifting its benchmark overnight target rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.25%-5.50% range at a policy meeting last month. The answer, by the way, is yes although we will first see a sharp bounce in inflation in the coming months as Powell makes all the same errors of the 1970s playbook.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The US tech sector has begun to lag suggesting the market is prone to consolidation, or some further short-term downside. Nonetheless, puts on the S&P are currently cheap.

Over the last month, the tech sector has been the poorest performing sector. But on a slightly longer scale – three months – AI-fervor has pushed tech to the top of the sector-leadership table.

However, as the chart below shows, in recent years this has often coincided with the latter stages of a rally, before a correction is seen (either one that is on the small side, as in early 2018, or a larger one as in 2022).

It is also notable that the weight of tech (+ Amazon) in the S&P 500 has failed to eclipse the high it made in November 2021.

Moreover, some measures of gamma have turned negative. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s (chart below from the latter) measures of gamma have just turned negative.

Gamma can be measured in different ways, but it is notable both banks’ gamma estimates are now negative. When gamma is negative bigger swings in price are more likely as the behavior of option dealers shifts from becoming volatility-repressing to volatility enhancing, as they have to chase the market to hedge their positions, rather than leaning against it.

Typically, though, there is a downwards bias when gamma is negative as it is mainly out-of-the-money puts dealers are short, and they must sell the market increasingly more as it sells off to hedge their positions.

Of note for investors is that puts on the S&P (e.g. 90% out-of-the-money) are about as cheap as they have been since before the pandemic.

With the mid-summer sun rising, things turn much quieter across markets although there are still enough events to keep traders on their toes and within Wifi coverage at their favorite vacation spot. As DB’s Peter Sidorov writes, in terms of events this week, we will get several soundbites on the strength of the US economic cycle, especially on the consumer front, with retail sales (Tuesday) industrial production (Wednesday) and a number of key retailers reporting results. In addition, the Fed will release the minutes of the July FOMC meeting (Wednesday).

In Europe, the key data will be in the UK, with the July labour market (Tuesday), inflation (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday).  It will also be a busy week in Asia with the July activity data and the 1-year MLF rate decision in China (Tuesday) and with preliminary Q2 GDP (Tuesday) and national CPI (Friday) in Japan.

In more detail, DB economists expect monthly retail sales to rise +0.3% in July (vs +0.4% consensus and +0.2% prev.) with a slightly slower rise in retail control (+0.2% vs +0.5% consensus). We will also get July industrial production (est. +0.3%), housing starts, the NAHB housing market survey and business surveys from the New York and Philly Feds. The health of the consumer will be crucial to whether the US can avoid a recession. US households will face more headwinds in H2 – slowing employment growth, pass through of policy tightening as well as the resumption of student loan repayments and deferred taxes coming due – though these are more likely to become visible in the autumn. As a reminder, our US economists continue to see a baseline of a mild recession from late 2023, but consumer resilience has made it a closer call.

Consumer activity will also be in focus at the tail end of the earnings season with reports this week from Home Depot (Tuesday), Target (Wednesday) and Walmart (Thursday). Other notable corporate earnings include Cisco and Applied Materials in the US and Tencent and JD.com in China.

From a central bank perspective, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting will give hints about the Fed’s reaction function ahead of the September meeting, where the Fed is expected to keep rates on hold. With the data-dependent tone from Fed speakers, any discussion on the expected path of inflation will be particularly interesting.

Over in Europe, the UK inflation print for July will be the highlight. A strong downside surprise last month drove the second strongest daily rally in 2yr gilts (-18bp) since March. DB’s UK economist Sanjay Raja sees headline inflation at 6.8% in line with consensus, with core at 6.9% (consensus 6.8%). This would mark the lowest headline inflation since February 2022, but still the highest among the G7.

In Asia, China will dominate the headlines on Tuesday with the July activity data including retail sales and industrial production (we also get the 1yr MLF rate fixing the same day). After weaker trade and bank credit numbers last week, investors will watch for further evidence on the trajectory of China’s economy. The same day we will get the Q2 GDP print in Japan (DBe: +0.9% qoq vs +0.7% qoq consensus). Meanwhile, Japan’s CPI print on Thursday is expected to show CPI ex fresh food and energy moving back to its May peak (+4.3% DBe and consensus vs +4.2% prev.).

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of global events

Monday August 14

• Data: Germany July wholesale price index

Tuesday August 15

• Data: US August Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, July retail sales, import and export price index, June total net TIC flows, business inventories, China July retail sales, industrial production, property investment, UK June average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, July jobless claims change, Japan Q2 GDP, June capacity utilization, Germany and the Eurozone August ZEW survey, Canada July CPI, existing home sales, June manufacturing sales
• Central banks: China 1-year MLF rate, Fed’s Kashkari speaks
• Earnings: Home Depot, Agilent Technologies, Cava

Wednesday August 16

• Data: US August New York Fed services business activity, July industrial production, housing starts, capacity utilization, building permits, China July new home prices, UK July CPI, PPI, RPI, June house price index, Italy June general government debt, Eurozone June industrial production, Canada July housing starts
• Central banks: Fed FOMC meeting minutes
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, JD.com, Target, Wolfspeed

Thursday August 17

• Data: US August Philadelphia Fed business outlook, July leading index, initial jobless claims, Japan July trade balance, June Tertiary industry index, core machine orders, Eurozone June trade balance, Canada June international securities transactions
• Earnings: Walmart, Applied Materials, SQM, Lenovo, Bilibili, Farfetch

Friday August 18

• Data: UK August GfK consumer confidence, July retail sales, Japan July national CPI, Eurozone June construction output, Canada July raw materials and industrial product price index
• Earnings: Deere, Palo Alto Networks, Estee Lauder, XPeng

* * *

Finally, turning to just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari has a speaking engagement on Tuesday.

Monday, August 14

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, August 15

• 08:30 AM Empire state manufacturing survey, August (consensus -0.4, last 1.1)
• 08:30 AM Import price index, July (consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%); Export price index, July (consensus +0.2, last -0.9%)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, July (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto, July (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, July (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, July (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%): We estimate core retail sales rose 0.7% in July (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa). Our forecast reflects a boost in the nonstore category from record sales on Amazon Prime Day, as well as solid high-frequency consumer spending data in the brick-and-mortar segment. We also estimate a 0.7% rise in headline retail sales.
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, June (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, August (consensus 56, last 56)
• 11:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated conversation followed by audience Q&A for APi’s annual global controllers conference. Livestream of the event will be available. On July 12, Kashkari said “one way supervisors could ensure banks are prepared is to run new high-inflation stress tests to identify at-risk banks and size individual capital shortfalls.”

Wednesday, August 16

• 08:30 AM Housing starts, July (GS -1.5%, consensus +0.9%, last -8.0%); Building permits, July (consensus +2.0%, last -3.7%)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, July (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.5%); Manufacturing production, July (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last -0.3%); Capacity utilization, July (GS 79.0%, consensus 79.1%, last 78.9%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.3%, as strong electric utilities and auto production outweigh weak mining production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 79.0%.
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, July 25-26 meeting: The FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp at its July meeting, but declined to provide any clear signal about its intentions for the September meeting. Chair Powell said during his post-meeting press conference that the FOMC has not made a decision to hike every other meeting and will instead proceed meeting by meeting.

Thursday, August 17

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, August (GS -9.0, consensus -10.5, last -13.5): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index picked up to -9 in August, reflecting the bottoming in East Asian industrial activity and the sequential improvement in US freight metrics.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 12 (GS 240k, consensus 239k, last 248k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 5 (consensus 1,700k, last 1,684k)

Friday, August 18

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

A privately owned Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23 (NATO reporting name: “Flogger”) third-generation jet fighter crashed on Sunday afternoon at Thunder Over Michigan Air Show at Willow Run Airport in Ypsilanti, Michigan. 

Video of the crash shows the Soviet aircraft, built between 1967-85, experiencing what appears to be a loss of lift during a steep left turn, a turn that involves a bank of more than 30 degrees. 

The pilots of the MIKOYAN GUREVICH MIG-23UB (N23UB) have both ejected this afternoon during the Thunder Over Michigan Airshow pic.twitter.com/j2sLp7DLmT

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) August 13, 2023

The steep turn was conducted at a low altitude, which means there is very little margin for error. To maintain altitude, the pilot must pitch up and increase power. Instead, the video shows the pilots ejecting from the aircraft, which only suggests a mechanical failure occurred.

More video pic.twitter.com/iLF7wJVZbZ

— Thenewarea51 (@thenewarea51) August 13, 2023

Wayne County Airport Authority released the following statement:

“Shortly after 4:00 p.m. Sunday, a MiG-23 demonstration plane performing at the Yankee Air Museum’s Thunder over Michigan air show crashed into the parking lot at the Waverly on the Lake Apartments in Belleville. The pilot and backseater successfully ejected from the aircraft before the crash. While it did not appear they sustained any significant injuries, first responders transported the pair to a nearby hospital as a precaution.The aircraft struck unoccupied vehicles in the apartment complex’s parking lot. No one at the apartment complex nor the air show was injured. The FAA is investigating the crash.”

Closer view of the crashed MiG-23 fighter jet in Belleville, Michigan, whose pilot and backseater ejected prior to the aircraft’s crash at The Waverly on the Lake apartment complex this afternoon. No injuries have been reported from the incident pic.twitter.com/xmWxIMmGkT

— Brendan Gutenschwager (@BGOnTheScene) August 14, 2023

Still, there’s no official reason why pilots resorted to ejecting. 

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

European natural gas prices soared almost 40 percent on the risk of a global liquefied natural gas shortage. European wholesale power prices remain below the record highs of the energy crisis but have steadily climbed as the volatility in the international commodity spectrum underscores the fragility of the European energy system.

Unfortunately, the European Union bureaucrats declared the end of the energy crisis as if it were the result of decisive policy action, but the reality is that the energy problem in the EU was only diminished by purely external factors: a very mild winter and the decline in global commodity prices due to the central bank rate hikes. Thus, the energy crisis remains, and the problems of security of supply and affordability of the system persist.

The European Union’s dependency on Russian gas has not been solved; it has only been disguised by a massive increase in dependency on coal (lignite) in the case of Germany and expensive liquefied natural gas imported from the rest of the world. At the end of 2022, Germany’s energy mix was the clearest example of its energy policy failure. Hard coal and lignite accounted for 31.2%, natural gas 13.8%, and mineral oil 0.8%, with nuclear at 6.0%. After almost 200 billion euros in renewable subsidies, Germany needs more coal and imported natural gas. What did the government decide after facing the mistake of shutting down almost all its nuclear fleet? You guessed it. Double down and continue with the process of closing the remaining ones. No wonder Germany is in recession. Its industrial model requires abundant and affordable energy, and the different governments have made the cost of energy uncompetitive.

What about Spain? The government decided to implement an “Iberian exception” that eliminates the cost of gas from the wholesale power price only to charge it back to consumers as a surcharge in the bill. The result? The fifth highest electricity bill in Europe sent hundreds of millions of euros to France and Portugal that purchased the subsidized energy while the Spanish consumer paid the bill to natural gas producers, and its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) soared, but the government tried to convince citizens that LNG from Novatek is “not Russian gas” because it is not a pipeline Gazprom supply, even when the supplier is a leading Russian energy multinational. You cannot make this up.

Even worse. Consumers have not seen the improvement in commodities in their bills. If we look at the latest reported Eurostat figures of household electricity prices, these increased in all but two EU Member States in the second half of 2022, compared with the second half of 2021, just as commodities slumped in international markets. The average for the EU stands at 252 euros per MWh and 261 euros per MWh for the euro area. This is between 20 and 30% higher than the average residential electricity rate in the U.S., according to data from Energy Sage.

The European energy crisis was not solved. It was disguised thanks to a mild winter and the slowdown in coal and gas imports from China.

European governments continue to place all their bets on a misguided energy transition that ignores security of supply and competitiveness and will make the EU depend on China for rare earths and metals as well as the U.S. and OPEC for commodities.

The European Union should have abandoned ideological decisions and allowed technology, competition, and industry to provide the optimal solution that delivers a competitive and secure supply of energy. Deciding to forbid the development of domestic resources and focus on intermittent and volatile sources of energy before the battery technology is fully operational is an enormous mistake that condemns the European Union to suffer higher costs and lower growth. Environmental policies must be considered from a global perspective. The EU accounts for less than 10% of global emissions but almost 100% of the cost. It needs to focus on competitiveness, security of supply, and respect for the environment from an industrial perspective. Ignoring the importance of making the most of nuclear, hydroelectric, gas, and all other available sources is dangerous.

In China or the United States, affordability, security of supply, and competitiveness are the drivers of energy policy.

In Europe, it is a misguided view of “not in my backyard” that is making the continent more dependent on others, not less.

Subsidies are delaying the necessary development of intermittent and volatile energy sources because policymakers reject the importance of creative destruction and competition as driving forces of progress.

Interventionism is not delivering better or cheaper energy; it is making the European Union lose in the technology and energy security race.