Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has claimed that the member countries of the European Union are expecting to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another four years at a cost of €5 billion per year.

In a video posted online, Szijjártó states “The European Union thinks that there will be war in Ukraine for another four years. How many people will die in four years? How many Hungarians will die in four years? And how much more devastation will be created in four years that someone will then have to repair?” 

❗️FM Szijjártó: The European Union thinks that there will be war in Ukraine for another four years. How many people will die in four years? How many Hungarians will die in four years? And how much more devastation will be created in four years that someone will then have to… pic.twitter.com/QLCmt6ATB8

— Zoltan Kovacs (@zoltanspox) July 29, 2023

The comments prompted Slovakian Foreign Minister Miroslav Wlachovský to respond “Dear Péter, please do not tell what other people think before you ask them. EU consists of 27 countries. I don’t recall any debate when we said the war will continue for 4 years. War can stop tomorrow. EU is not a problem, Russia is a problem.”

Wlachovský added “Russians, go home! Let there be peace! 1956,” referring to the year that there was an anti-Soviet uprising in Hungary.

Dear Péter, please don’t tell what other people think before you ask them. EU consists of 27 countries. I don’t recall any debate when we said the war will continue for 4 years. War can stop tomorrow. EU is not a problem, Russia is a problem. Ruszkik haza! Legyen béke! 1956 https://t.co/RGPxVbxGaF

— Miroslav Wlachovsky (@MWlachovsky) July 30, 2023

Wlachovský’s post then prompted Hungarian Minister of State Tamás Menczer to respond “Minister Wlachovsky either has a bad short-term memory — and this is a benign assumption — or he is lying.”

Menczer further noted that EU foreign ministers agreed at their last meeting to propose financing arms shipments to Ukraine for the next four years at a combined cost of €20 billion.

“The Slovak foreign minister did not oppose the proposal,” Menczer continued, then posing the question “If there will be no war in the next four years, why should there be financing for arms supplies?”

“The Hungarian position is unchanged: We want an immediate ceasefire and peace,” Menczer concluded.

State Secretary Tamás Menczer responds to @MWlachovsky:

Minister Wlachovsky either has a poor short-term memory or he is lying. Because at the last meeting of EU foreign ministers, they discussed a proposal to spend €5 billion a year for the next 4 years to finance arms… https://t.co/4ycOonhA4s

— Zoltan Kovacs (@zoltanspox) July 30, 2023

Who knows how much more the U.S. will send to Ukraine in that time.

This comes as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky commented last week that “As long as the war continues, nothing can be enough,” despite Ukraine having received an estimated €165 billion ($185.6 billion) from Western nations, including the U.S.

*  *  *

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It’s been a rough morning for Global Manufacturing PMIs – China, Turkey, Italy, France, Germany (shitshow), Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Brazil all printed below 50 (contracting).

Goods production in the #eurozone fell at the sharpest pace since the global financial crisis in July (except for pandemic-hit months), contributing to the fastest drop in factory gate prices since Sep 2009. @HCOB_Economics #PMI Read more: https://t.co/EsB6WVnAge pic.twitter.com/eyZmVvqi1n

— S&P Global PMI™ (@SPGlobalPMI) August 1, 2023

So can USA, USA, USA buck the trend – besides we have something no other country has – “Bidenomics“!!!!!

US macro data has serially surprised to the upside in recent weeks, so expectations were for a rebound in US Manufacturing ‘soft’ survey data and S&P Global’s PMI printed 49.0 in July (still in contraction), unchanged from the flash print earlier in the month (but up from the 46.3 final print in June). ISM’s Manufacturing survey headline disappointed, printing 46.4 (46.9 exp) – still in contraction – but up marginally from the 46.0 June print. ISM hasn’t been above 50 since August 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

ISM’s Manufacturing survey showed Employment slowing at its fastest rate since COVID lockdowns. Prices and New Orders continue to contract…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“Manufacturing continues to act as a drag on the US economy, the recent spell of malaise persisting at the start of the third quarter. However, producers are clearly shrugging off recession fears and planning for better times ahead.

“The sector continued to suffer from lower demand, as a post-pandemic shift in spending from goods to services, and an ongoing trend of cost-focused inventory reduction, led to a further drop in orders.

“The overall rate of order book decline nevertheless moderated during the month, helped by a slower decline in exports, to help stabilize production. “

There are some silver-linings for those desperate to find something bullish ‘soft-landing’-y to cling to…

“There were several other encouraging bright spots in the survey, most notably including a marked improvement in business expectations for output in the year ahead. Firms are therefore anticipating the current soft patch to soon pass, and importantly are hiring more staff as a result.

“There was also good news on the inflation front. The combination of weak demand and improved supply led to a further “buyers’ market” for many goods. Prices charged for goods consequently barely rose for a third straight month, which should help subdue consumer price inflation in the near term.”

Still, not exactly the exuberant economy that ‘Bidenomics’ promised.

By Jane Foley, Senior FX strategist at Rabobank

Since the release of the softer than expected June US CPI inflation report on July 12, the market has been increasingly hopeful that the narrative of a soft landing for the US economy will stick. Oil prices recorded a strong month in July as expectations of more Saudi supply cuts coincided with hopes that demand may stay resilient. Also, US stock market indices continued to probe the upside. The S&P 500 gained 3.1% in July, its fifth consecutive monthly gain. While the upside in US stocks earlier in the year was largely driven by the AI boom in the seven megacap tech stocks, since May there is evidence that the gains have become more broad-based.

That said, niggling worries about economic headwinds remain. We maintain that there is risk that the US economy will enter a mild recession before the end of this year and the US economic data releases due over the coming days could be decisive in underpinning or testing this view. Despite the strong stock market performance in July, equity futures are mostly lower this morning suggestive of some fatigue in the market and growing concerns about the outlook for the world’s second largest economy.

There is no denying the pressures that are facing China. The Caixin manufacturing PMI swung back below the 50 level in July, for the first time since April. At below 50, the index is reflecting contraction in the sector, in line with the official PMI released yesterday. Worryingly, new orders recorded the quickest fall since December, with weakness stemming from the producers of consumer and intermediate goods. A sharp drop in the new export orders sub-index raises questions about the buoyancy of global demand.

In addition, Chinese consumer demand remains soft. Youth unemployment is at elevated levels in China and falling house prices have injected a negative wealth effect. The market has remained broadly optimistic that further support measures will be forthcoming from the authorities, but so far policies have been aimed at the supply side and not the consumer. Data released overnight suggested that home prices in China dropped by the most in a year in July. According to data from China Real Estate Information Corp., the value of new home sales by the 100 biggest developers plunged 33.1% y/y. The news will undoubtedly stir fears of potential defaults in the sector. Last week the Politburo pledged to optimise policies for the property sector.

In contrast to the situation in China, house prices have been rebounding in Australia where a lack of property has overwhelmed the impact of rising mortgage costs in the sector. A little reprieve to mortgage holders was offered by the decision by the RBA this morning to leave policy unchanged for a second consecutive month. The Board is concerned that “many households are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances” on the back of the 400 bps of RBA rate hikes that have been announced since May 2022. That said, it also recognized that others are “benefiting from rising housing prices, substantial savings buffers and higher interest income”. The RBA maintained the guidance that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. Australian CPI inflation in Q2 dropped to 6% y/y, still well above the RBA’s 2-3% goal. The AUD is the worst performing G10 currency this morning on the back of the RBA’s announcement.

Yesterday, Eurozone July CPI inflation data recorded a little further moderation in the headline figure, which eased to 5.3% from 5.5% the previous month. However, the core number stood firm at 5.5%. Q2 GDP data registered a better than expected 0.3% q/q rise, led by activity in countries such as Ireland and France. The GDP data, however, have not eased fears surrounding stagnation risks for the bloc. Energy concerns for the region remain on the agenda.

According to my colleague Mike Every, “the recent coup in Niger might seem irrelevant to markets. However, besides adding to a growing list of geopolitical troublespots, the new junta immediately declared it would cease exporting uranium, of which it is a key supplier, to France, whose electricity generation relies on it. The West African Union has already imposed sanctions and threatened military intervention if the previous government is not reinstalled; Niger claims France is set to join those military efforts. More importantly, take what’s happening with uranium here and apply it to many ‘green’ minerals the EU doesn’t control the supply chain of but needs on a vast scale; add Russian and Chinese on the ground influence in Africa etc; and start to see that this kind of geopolitical event might become more frequent and will matter for markets and inflation”.

Moscow’s mayor has said that overnight a high-rise building in the capital which houses Russian government ministries has suffered a direct impact from a drone strike for a second time in three days.

Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed that it was the same tower that had been previously struck on Sunday, and separately the defense ministry said it intercepted two more drones over the nearby districts of Odintsovo and Narofominsk. The ministry identified Ukraine as the culprit for the “attempted terrorist attack.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had just previewed and threatened two nights ago that he’s ready to take to war to Russian soil, saying: “Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic centers and military bases.” He added, “And this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.”

There were also overnight statements by the Russian military describing a wave of drone attacks against Russian naval ships in the Black Sea.

And in a fresh August 1st tweet, Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, also vowed more is coming, saying the following:

Moscow is rapidly getting used to a full-fledged war, which, in turn, will soon finally move to the territory of the “authors of the war” to collect all their debts …

Everything that will happen in Russia is an objective historical process. More unidentified drones, more collapse, more civil conflicts, more war…

The New York Times has meanwhile confirmed that Kiev has stepped up targeting to include intelligence, military, and financial centers of the Russian capital, after the intensified border region activity (particularly strikes and cross-border action against Belgorod) of the past many months of war.

⚡️Consequences of a drone strike in Moscow a short while ago pic.twitter.com/fAirl93HEs

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) August 1, 2023

“Drones have exploded over the gilded domes of the Kremlin. They have hit strategic Russian air bases hundreds of miles from Ukraine,” NY Times observes. “They have struck a Moscow tower that houses several government ministry offices, including the one responsible for the military-industrial complex.”

“And they have landed a stone’s throw from one of the main Russian military headquarters, where officers sitting in large situation rooms with vast screens on its walls directly oversee and manage the war in Ukraine,” the report adds.

One thing is becoming very evident, Ukraine is escalating the war into Moscow, as the West remains silent in face of the greatly heightened increased potential for a full Russia-NATO clash, while also still seeking to conceal its own role.

Most DC types are upset Biden isn’t giving Zelensky better weapons to kill more people in Russia. https://t.co/VrhaOv9sYV

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 1, 2023

This is also evidenced in the fact that for the first time Zelensky and his top officials have begun owning up to the attacks on Russian territory, openly admitting the cross-border operations after months of denial and cover-up, chiefly for the sake of Western audiences:

• Zelensky, May 14: We don’t attack Russian territory
• Zelensky, July 30: We’re bringing the war to Russian territory

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby is still sticking by the Washington official line that the US is not encouraging such attacks. He recently reiterated in an interview with CNN that the US administration is “not encouraging attacks inside Russia, decision is for Ukraine to make.” 

But this is very clearly obfuscation and outright dishonesty, attempting to escape blame despite it long being known that the US assisting Ukrainian forces with intelligence and targeting information, as has been revealed time and time again.

* * *

Max Abrahms, a professor of international security and author/expert on counterterrorism at Northeastern University, had this to say of the latest Moscow drone strikes [emphasis ZH]…

“The attacks inside Russia against civilian targets do not have the intended communicative effect. The standard Western view is the attacks will signal to Putin the costs of occupying Ukraine so he withdraws.”

“But I believe the attacks only reinforce his priors that NATO is waging a proxy war against Russians whose security depends on weakening Ukraine and securing territories close to Russia. The attacks in Russia validate his worldview.”

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Stocks are becoming expensive, but in real terms they could get much richer before becoming historically overvalued relative to bonds.

Driving while using only the rear-view mirror is not advisable. Yet in market analysis we are forced to do just that frequently. Nowhere is that more true in one of the most lagging of economic variables – inflation. It tells you the change in prices that has already happened, and says nothing about the future.

On top of that, inflation is not a clearly defined concept. Even restricting ourselves to consumer inflation, there is an enormous amount of subjectivity in how one defines the consumer basket, and the inflation that each person experiences is likely to be different from the official measure, and from everyone else too.

All of which means the concept of real yields requires a bit more thought. Commonly they are deflated using consumer inflation, using either the headline number or breakevens. Setting aside whether consumer prices are the correct measure to use, we are still faced with a central inconsistency: inflation is backward-looking, yields are forward-looking.

If a real market variable is to be useful, it should tell us what we think people will do. A real yield of say -2% is based on where inflation was. But if inflation was expected to be high in the coming year, then this means a much lower expected real yield. That gives us a read on how investors are anticipated to behave on a forward-looking basis.

Colleague Cameron Crise recently did some interesting analysis on real yields and the equity risk premium. Recent experience might inform you that as real yields rise, that is negative for equity valuations relative to bonds.

But as he showed, this is only a post-GFC phenomenon. Over the long term (back to the early 1960s), there is a strong negative correlation between real yields and the equity risk premium (ERP).

In other words, as bonds get cheaper, stocks get more expensive compared to bonds, and therefore if the Fed manages to hold rates “higher for longer,” stocks can keep richening.

I extended this analysis using expected real yields, defining the 10-year expected real yield as the nominal 10-year yield minus the University of Michigan survey’s measure of five- to 10-year inflation expectations.

What we find is an even stronger relationship, with an R2 of 60% (versus 52% for the original data set over the same historical period), i.e. expectations of how cheap bonds will be is a very good indication of the richness of stocks.

A twist, though, is captured by the set of points to the right of the trend line, when expected real yields were greater than ~6%. Here, bonds were expected to get cheaper, but stocks were not richening as much as the relationship would anticipate.

These data points pertain to the early 1980s when Volcker was catapulting rates higher. At some point, bonds were expected to get so cheap, i.e. for rates to get so high – and so volatile – that owning equities was not attractive either. The ERP did not start falling again until the summer of 1982 – when it was clear bond yields had peaked – with equities bottoming in price terms not long after.

But we’re far from that point yet, and with expected real yields still low today (red dot in the chart above), there is plenty of scope for them to keep rising and for stocks to richen further.

It’s the same takeaway if we look at the ERP on an expected basis. Deflating stocks using long-term inflation expectations (as they are a long-duration asset), and deflating bonds using short-term expectations, we can create an expected ERP.

The chart below shows that while equities are as rich as they have been relative to bonds since the GFC on a real basis, on an expectations basis, their overvaluation is not yet as stretched.

Moreover, this also applies to stocks on an absolute basis. Even though the real earnings yield of the S&P is rising sharply, signifying stocks in real terms are cheapening, on an expected real basis they are richening. This is consistent with the message from the 12-month forward earnings yield which shows stocks are expected to richen in nominal terms.

The extent to which inflation expectations catch up with spot inflation in the coming months will dictate how long the divergence between the expected and real earnings yield can persist, and therefore by how much further stocks can richen. But expectations can be very sticky. They remained stubbornly higher than spot inflation through the 1980s, long after the Volcker rate shock had subsided.

This exercise is a reminder that in an inflationary world, we can no longer assume that real and nominal variables are indistinguishable. It’s real returns that matter at the end of the day, and more importantly the real returns that are expected – and on that basis stocks can keep richening beyond what a conventional nominal analysis would indicate.

Tesla’s weaponized price cuts of its electric vehicles have fueled a global price war to maintain market share appears to be working yet again. Just last week, Ford announced it would suffer billion-dollar losses on EVs this year. Now, BMW AG shares are sliding after it warned of soaring costs for developing electric vehicles and snarled supply chains. 

BMW now expects automotive free cash flow of above €6 billion ($6.6 billion) this year, from about €7 billion earlier. 

Additionally, free cash flow in the Automotive segment is now anticipated to be above €6 billion for the full year 2023, taking into account higher investments in the transformation to electromobility as well as increased inventories to ensure the necessary supply of vehicles to the markets.

The German luxury car maker now expects “higher expenses for suppliers due to inflation and the supply chain to continue to be a headwind in the second half of the year.”

A combination of soaring expenses due to EV production and supply chain headwinds sent shares of BMW in Frankfurt down as much as 6.7%, the most significant intraday decline since May 12. 

Bloomberg added more color about the supply chain woes: 

“After protracted semiconductor supply issues, several carmakers are now struggling with new logistics constraints. Volkswagen AG cut its delivery outlook last week after a lack of truck drivers left finished vehicles stranded at factories. Porsche AG had to cap sales of its electric Taycan after struggling to source certain components.”

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in a note to clients that BMW’s statement this morning is “confusing and negative.” 

Even though there were cautious comments on a potential second-half headwind, the car company raised its full-year earnings forecast on improving the availability of its premium vehicles. 

Troubles at BMW’s electric vehicle division come days after Ford announced it would lose $4.5 billion from its EV segment this year, a $1.5 billion larger loss than the company had forecast.

BMW and Ford’s EV problems come after Tesla has spent most of the year lowering its vehicle prices to squeeze its competition. This strategy is working. 

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Markets are pricing a rapid decline in inflation and the end of central bank policy normalization.

However, there are two challenges ahead that we must consider.

The most important is that inflation is cumulative, and the year-on-year change between January and July was supported by the base effect.

When the inflation rate used for the year-on-year change is high, even a persistent increase in prices looks like a “decline” in inflation. If I gain ten pounds one year and four the next, my inflation rate will fall, but I am not slimming. And prices continue to bite, hurting the economy and consumers.

The end of this “base effect tailwind” is particularly important. According to Bank of America Global Investments, unless month-on-month inflation in the U.S. stays below 0.2%, inflation will rise in 2024. If the CPI rises 0.3% month-on-month, annual inflation will rise to 4.6%. Furthermore, if month-on-month inflation is 0.5%, annual inflation will soar to 6.1%. Even if CPI is 0% month-on-month, annual inflation would be 2.5% in 2024, significantly above the Fed’s 2% target.

The second challenge is that commodity disinflation, alongside the base effect, has been a major driver of the reduction in the annual inflation rate.

Rate hikes and monetary normalization triggered a decline in almost all global commodities in international markets, sending oil, natural gas, food prices, and agricultural goods down to pre-Ukraine invasion levels. It proved that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. However, the Fed-induced commodity decline reached a bottom in May, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index has bounced from the two-year low and is almost flat on the year. Rate hikes and monetary contraction have slowed, and commodity prices bounced as the fundamentals of supply and demand remained unchanged.

Real wages remain in negative territory, and this means a weakening of consumers’ purchasing power. The latest Employment Cost Index (ECI) shows a severe slowdown, and ECI private wages and salaries in the second quarter pushed the annual growth rate down from 5.1% to a two-year low of 4.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Average hourly earnings in real terms have fallen from $30 in 2021 to less than $29, according to the BLS.

Why should we remain worried? Because the market is excessively optimistic about the end of the inflation problem and investors keep buying extremely cyclical, high-beta stocks,

Real Personal Spending in June continued to show a weak trend (0.4%), and the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Deflator is still rising, 0.2% in June and 3.0% in the year, with its core component increasing 0.2% in the month and 4.1% in the year.

The reality is that monetary normalization remains far from complete. The Fed’s balance sheet soared from 17% to 36% of GDP and is now at 34.5%. It rose in July from the May low of 32.4%.

Many investors believe we have seen the worst of the inflation burst and hope that the economy will remain on a soft landing while central banks start easing, which would be very bullish. However, persistent inflation is hurting the economy, and the worst is yet to come now that savings have been mostly consumed and credit conditions are much tighter. If the base effect and monetary easing drive inflationary pressures higher, betting on central banks to cut rates and purchase government bonds may be very risky.

Elon Musk’s “X” has filed a lawsuit against the pro-censorship group, Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH), which it has accused of “actively working to assert false and misleading claims encouraging advertisers to pause investment on the platform.”

“X is a free public service funded largely by advertisers,” reads a Monday night Twitter blog entry. “Through the CCDH’s scare campaign and its ongoing pressure on brands to prevent the public’s access to free expression, the CCDH is actively working to prevent public dialogue.”

The move follows a July 19 Bloomberg article featuring the CCDH to claim that a “surge in harmful content” has caused advertisers to stay away from the free speech platform.

“During Musk’s tenure, hate speech towards minority communities increased, according to the CCDH,” reads the article.

To justify their claim, the CCDH used data from social media analysis provider Brandwatch, which – according to the company, “contained metrics used out of context to make unsubstantiated assertions about X (formerly Twitter).“

We help the world’s largest brands better understand and shape their brand impact. Recently, we were cited in an article about brand relevance that relied on incomplete and outdated data. It contained metrics used out of context to make unsubstantiated assertions about Twitter.

— Brandwatch (@Brandwatch) July 20, 2023

X also claims that “the CCDH has recently scraped X’s platform, which is a violation of our terms of service.”

Continued:

That’s why X has filed a legal claim against the CCDH and its backers. X not only rejects all claims made by the CCDH, but, through our own investigation, we have identified several ways in which the CCDH is actively working to prevent free expression. That includes:

• Targeting people on all platforms who speak about issues the CCDH doesn’t agree with.
• Attempting to coerce the deplatforming of users whose views do not conform to the CCDH’s ideological agenda.
• Targeting free-speech organizations by focusing on their revenue stream to remove free services for people.  
• Attempting to illegally gain unauthorized access to social media platform data and to misuse that data.

We have a big responsibility to protect free expression. And we will continue to cooperate with all partners who want to both preserve people’s right to freely express themselves, and equally work to create a safe and healthy space for everyone.

As we noted yesterday, the CCDH is operated by an operative named Imran Ahmed. As noted by journalist Paul Thacker:

The Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) sprang out of nowhere in late 2017 or early 2018. At the time, Ahmed was leaving a job as a political advisor to members of the British Labour Party and had just written a book.

As we chronicle in our just published book The New Serfdom, the dominance of market fundamentalism has been a disastrous experiment that has ripped up social cohesion and solidarity while the gap between the 1 per cent and the 99 per cent has soared to levels not seen since the beginning of the last century. Home ownership, secure employment and fair wages seem like relics of a bygone era. Meanwhile exploitative workplace practices have created a new serfdom leaving many people trapped in insecure, unfulfilling and underpaid work with no escape route.

How this background as a political operative prepared Ahmed to brand himself as an expert in disinformation is unclear. His LinkedIn account makes no mention of his work as a political operative in England, although his biography at CCDH states that he is an “authority on social and psychological malignancies on social media, such as identity-based hate, extremism, disinformation, and conspiracy theories.”

Ahmed now lives in Washington DC and his organization does not provide a list of funders.

In early 2021, CCDH posted a report titled “The Disinformation Dozen” that alleged the majority of COVID vaccine disinformation came from just 12 accounts, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Ahmed released the report just as the Biden administration began their COVID vaccine rollout and shortly before the House held hearings on disinformation at social media companies.

Twitter officials began sharing Ahmed’s findings, soon after CCDH released them that March. “COVID-19 misinfo enforcement team is planning on taking action on a handful of accounts surfaced by the CCDH report,” reads a March 31 email, noting that Ahmded’s report was released right before the House held a hearing on disinformation where Facebook’s Mark Zuckeberg and Twitter’s Jack Dorsy both testified, along with Google CEO Sundar Pichai.

Good question. This appears to be foreign government interference.

Can’t wait to get their donors under deposition!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2023

As Thacker further noted earlier this month in a Twitter Files release: 

In a bumbling campaign they ran the year prior, CCDH targeted 10 websites for allegedly posting racist narratives. CCDH claimed in one example that Zero Hedge had run a racist article that stated Black Lives Matter is “practically a revolutionary operative of the CIA via Soros” and another article that suggested Black Lives Matter is a George Soros “Astroturf” campaign for “leftists and their agenda to reshape the fabric of American society.”

Fact checkers with the NBC News “verify unit” fell for CCDH’s fake report, writing, “Google has banned two far-right websites from its advertising platform after research revealed the tech giant was profiting from articles pushing unsubstantiated claims about the Black Lives Matter protests.”

In fact, the passages CCDH cited did not appear in Zero Hedge articles, but beneath the articles in the hundreds of readers comments posted without moderation. The following day, NBC stealth edited their article to remove CCDH’s misinformation, instead of running a correction.

Discovery should be fun, eh?

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Good news. The looming US recession has been canceled.

Or has it?

Just a few weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while economic growth has slowed, “our labor market continues to be quite strong — I don’t expect a recession.” Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said staff economists at the central bank now project a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year, “But given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession.”

In fact, with much stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and continued labor market strength, a growing number of people in the mainstream now think the US has escaped the clutches of a recession despite the Fed driving interest rates to the highest level in 16 years.

Perhaps the optimism is premature.  And maybe we shouldn’t put too much stock in the current official government numbers.

In the first place, it seems unlikely the US economy can avoid a significant downturn given the fact that the Fed has taken away its lifeblood – easy money. The economy was built on artificially low-interest rates and quantitative easing. Taking that away is like draining half the oil out of an engine. It might run for a little bit, but eventually, that engine is going to seize up.

It’s just a matter of time.

Remember — everybody thought the economy was fine in 2007 too, even though the housing market had already cracked and the Fed was cutting interest rates. In fact, GDP in the third quarter of that year was 3.9%.

Second, it’s hard to reconcile the veracity of the government numbers when there are so many other data points indicating recession, including 15 consecutive drops in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (the most consecutive negative prints since 2007-2008), an inverted yield curve, and a rising number of corporate defaults.

And here’s another off-the-beaten-path metric that is screaming recession — a big plunge in the sale of cardboard boxes.

Earlier this month, Packaging Corp. of America reported that cardboard box sales fell 9.8% in the second quarter. That ranks as one of the biggest slumps on record when you combine it with the 12.7% drop in Q1.

According to a report by FreightWaves Research, the combined six-month decline ranks as the biggest plunge since early 2009.

Now, you might wonder, ‘What do cardboard box sales have to do with the economy?’

Stop and think about it. Stuff gets shipped in boxes. Everything from raw materials to final products arriving at your door is packaged in boxes. If there is less stuff produced and sold, an economy will need fewer boxes. So, cardboard box sales serve as a pretty good indicator of real economic activity — production, buying, and selling.

And the box barometer is not subject to government accounting tricks.

The FreightWaves Research report said there isn’t anything indicating the sale of cardboard boxes will increase anytime soon.

With regional banks cutting back on lending out of necessity, the emergency government food stamp (SNAP) benefits a thing of the past, federal student loan payments set to resume in October and the Federal Reserve continuing to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, we’re unsure what would lead to improved box demand.”

So, while the GDP and job numbers may make you think the Fed can control price inflation without driving the economy into the ground, I wouldn’t get too giddy. The box barometer is flashing “worry,” and that metric seems a whole lot more connected to reality than numbers pumped out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Hunter Biden’s former business partner Devon Archer has spilled the beans to Congress, telling lawmakers in a closed-door session that Burisma Holdings pressured Hunter Biden in December 2015 to ‘deal with’ a Ukrainian prosecutor who was investigating the firm for corruption – shortly before then-VP Joe Biden threatened Ukraine with a quid-pro-quo over US aid in exchange for firing said prosecutor.

According to Just the News, Archer also told the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that Hunter Biden was hired to sit on the board of Burisma because his family’s “brand” had value at a time when the firm was facing corruption allegations from not only Ukraine’s own prosecutor general’s office, but the US and Great Britain as well.

“Devon Archer testified that the value of adding Hunter Biden to Burisma’s board was ‘the brand’ and confirmed that then-Vice President Joe Biden brought the most value to ‘the brand,'” an anonymous source told JTN. “Archer also stated that Burisma would have gone under if not for ‘the brand.”

Selling the brand

Archer also contradicted Joe Biden’s claims that he had never met with Hunter Biden’s foreign business associates – telling the committee that Joe Biden had gotten on speakerphone over 20 times with his son’s business clients – not to engage in specific business, but he “was put on the phone to sell ‘the brand.'”

The former business partner at the Rosemont Seneca firm, who was convicted in 2018 in a tribal bond fraud scheme, also told lawmakers that Hunter Biden was pressured in late 2015 to help deal with Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin’s corruption investigation as Joe Biden was preparing to travel to Ukraine. -JTN

“In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin,” the source told JTN. “Shokin was investigating Burisma for corruption. Hunter Biden, along with Zlochevsky and Pozharski, ‘called D.C.’ to discuss the matter. Biden, Zlochevsky, and Pozharski stepped away to take make the call.”

A few days after that meeting, Joe Biden visited Ukraine as vice president and began an effort to force Ukraine’s president to fire Shokin, eventually threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees if the termination did not happen. Biden’s defenders have long maintained the firing was not related to Burisma and was a result of U.S. policy because the Obama administration felt Shokin was corrupt.

Devon Archer’s testimony:
•In December 2015, Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, and Vadym Pozharski, an executive of Burisma, placed constant pressure on Hunter Biden to get help from D.C. regarding the Ukrainian prosecutor, Viktor Shokin. Shokin was investigating Burisma…

— Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) July 31, 2023

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed JTN‘s source, telling the Daily Caller: “The biggest significant thing that has come out so far is that we now have proof that Joe Biden lied. He’s been telling everyone for years now that he knows nothing about Hunter Biden’s business deals, that he’s never talked to his son about it. Well, this morning Devon Archer confirmed for all of us that that is not true.”

Devon Archer, Hunter Biden’s former best friend and business associate, asked Hunter why appointees from the Obama/Biden Admin arrested him.

Hunter explained, “It’s democracy…every presidents family is held to a higher standard…it’s the price of being the most powerful group… pic.twitter.com/K5PFVKLbHm

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) July 31, 2023

“He told us in his transcribed interview that he heard Hunter Biden speak to Joe Biden more than 20 times about their business deals. Not about anything else, but about the business deals,” she added.

Meanwhile, trust fund Democrat Dan Goldman (Schiff Jr.) continues to run cover…

Just IN: After years of denying speaking with Hunter Biden’s business partners abroad, lawyer now says of POTUS “he never said he has never spoken with anyone”, and might have said “hello” to SOME business partners. pic.twitter.com/8OE2160RCU

— Anthony Cabassa (@AnthonyCabassa_) July 31, 2023

This was always predictable about where this was headed.

Next will be “he would have been stupid not to take bribes from hostile foreign entities.” https://t.co/LrhJREocDr

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) July 31, 2023

And Democrats are of course starting to cry foul at the rules they themselves made during the Trump years…

Welcome to the new rules you guys created! https://t.co/xyemugAXia

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) July 30, 2023