Ahead of Wednesday testimony from IRS whistleblowers, the Committee on Oversight and Accountability has released a comprehensive timeline of the Biden family influence peddling scheme in their quest to determine whether the Biden family has been targeted by foreign actors, President Biden is compromised, or US national security has been compromised.

Four main themes emerge; Romania, the CCP-linked Chinese energy company CEFC, China-Bohai Harvest RST Equity Investment Fund (BHR) and dealings in Kazakhstan.

2009 – The Obama-Biden administration takes office

November 1, 2013 – China / BHR:

Hunter Biden, business associate, and Chinese investors agree to create Bohai Harvest RST Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. (BHR), an investment fund controlled by the Bank of China, to focus on mergers and acquisitions, and investment in and reforms of state-owned enterprise.

December 4, 2013 – China / BHR

Vice President Biden travels with Hunter Biden on Air Force 2 to China and meets CEO of BHR, Jonathan Li. Shortly thereafter, BHR’s business license was approved and Hunter Biden was a board member.

February 5, 2014 – Kazakhstan

Kenes Rakishev, a Kazakhstani businessman, meets with Hunter Biden at a hotel in Washington, D.C.

April 15, 2014 – Ukraine

Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, appoints Biden business associate to their board of directors.

April 22, 2014 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden travels to Ukraine and gives an anti-corruption speech.

April 23, 2014 – Kazakhstan

The Rosemont entity wires $142,300 to a car dealership in New Jersey for a new sports car for Hunter Biden.

May 12, 2014 – Ukraine

Burisma announces Hunter Biden joined its board of directors.

Wheels up DC. Next stop → Romania pic.twitter.com/LQScWOAgvq

— VP Biden (Archived) (@VP44) May 20, 2014

May 21, 2014 – Romania

Vice President Biden visits Romania and delivers a speech to the Romanian Prime Minister, judges, prosecutors, and leaders of the Romanian Parliament.

September 12, 2014 – China / BHR

BHR invests $1.7 billion in CCP-linked petroleum and chemical company.

December 9, 2014 – China / BHR

Hunter Biden and business associate invest $484,920 into BHR.

December 22, 2014 – Kazakhstan

Kenes Rakishev’s Kazakhstani oil company and Burisma join with a CCP-linked company and announce a transnational financial arrangement.

March 20, 2015 – Ukraine

Hunter Biden organizes a business dinner at Café Milano in Washington, D.C. where he has his father to stop by the dinner to meet a high level Burisma official, Vadym Pozharskyi.

September 1, 2015 – China / BHR

BHR joins with a CCP-linked entity to acquire US-based Henniges Automotive in a deal reportedly worth $600 million.

September 28, 2015 – Romania

Vice President Biden welcomes Romanian President Klaus Iohannis to the White House. A readout of the meeting states, the “Vice President welcomed President Iohannis’ focus on anti-corruption efforts and rule of law as a means to strengthen national security and promote greater investment and economic growth.”  President Iohannis said the Vice President “voiced satisfaction over Romania’s progress with the fight against corruption.”

November 2, 2015 – Ukraine

Vadym Pozharskyi suggests high level U.S. level officials come to Ukraine and talk with Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin and President Petro Poroshenko about Mykola Zlochevsky’s investigations. Prosecutor General Shokin was investigating Burisma and Burisma’s owner, Zlochevsky for fraud. Prosecutor General Shokin is the Ukranian government official Vice President Biden demanded Poroshenko fire.

November 5, 2015 – Romania

Romanian businessman, Gabriel Popoviciu, begins making deposits into Robinson Walker, LLC’s bank account. Robinson Walker, LLC is an entity owned by a Biden associate, Rob Walker. Popoviciu’s company sent Robinson Walker the first wire for $179,836.86. From November 2015 to May 2017, Popoviciu’s company paid Robinson Walker, LLC over $3 million.  Biden family accounts received approximately $1.038 million from the Robinson Walker, LLC account after Popoviciu’s deposits. Sixteen of the seventeen payments from Popoviciu’s company to Robinson Walker, LLC were made while Joe Biden was Vice President.

November 6, 2015 – Ukraine

Amos Hochstein, a high level U.S. government offical working in the Obama-Biden Administration, meets with Hunter Biden and discusses Burisma.

November 11, 2015 – Romania

Rob Walker’s account wires Hunter Biden $59,900.

November 11, 2015 – Ukraine

Amos Hochstein meets with Vice President Biden in the West Wing.

November 12, 2015 – Ukraine

Amos Hochstein calls Hunter Biden.

November 13, 2015 – Romania

Hunter Biden travels to Romania to meet with the U.S. Ambassador to Romania.

November 13, 2015 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden announces trip to Ukraine to take place the first week of December 2015.

VP Biden touched down in Ukraine last night. Read his initial notes from the road: https://t.co/FdPysDjiqT pic.twitter.com/ybZFp7frYe

— VP Biden (Archived) (@VP44) December 7, 2015

November 14, 2015 – Ukraine

Vadym Pozharskyi emails Hunter Biden confirmation that the Vice President will be traveling to Ukraine.

December 7, 2015 – China / CEFC

Hunter Biden and CEFC Chairman Ye Jianming begin communicating regarding a possible U.S. partnership.

December 7, 2015 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden arrives in Ukraine, where he demands Prosecutor General Shokin be fired if Ukraine wants $1 billion in International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans.

December 9, 2015 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden departs Ukraine and gets a commitment from President Poroshenko that Prosecutor General Shokin will be fired.

December 17, 2015 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden hosts a holiday party at the Vice Presidential residence, which Amos Hochstein and Hunter Biden both attend.

December 23, 2015 – Romania

Robinson Walker, LLC wires Hunter Biden $60,091.24.

January 20, 2016 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden meets with President Poroshenko in Switzerland at the World Economic Forum where Biden reinforced the linkage between the loan guarantee and the necessary reforms.

February 4, 2016 – Ukraine

Mykola Zlochevsky gives Hunter Biden unspecified, extravagant birthday gifts.

February 11, 2016 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden and President Poroshenko conduct a call.

February 12, 2016 – Romania

Robinson Walker, LLC wires Hunter Biden’s Owasco P.C. $61,126.24.

February 16, 2016 – Ukraine

President Poroshenko asks Prosecutor General Shokin to resign.

February 18, 2016 – Ukraine

Vice President Biden calls President Poroshenko to thank him for calling on Prosecutor General Shokin to resign.

February 19, 2016 – Ukraine

President Poroshenko says he recieved Prosecutor General Shokin’s letter of resignation.

March 24, 2016 – Romania

Robinson Walker, LLC wires Owasco P.C. $61,816.05.

March 29, 2016 – Romania

Hunter Biden meets again with U.S. Ambassador to Romania.

March 29, 2016 – Ukraine

Ukranian Parliament approves President Poroshenko’s firing of Prosecutor General Shokin.

May 23, 2016 – November 15, 2016 – Romania

Robinson Walker, LLC wires Owasco P.C. over $530,000

November 1, 2016 – China / BHR

BHR agrees to purchase Lundin Mining Corp’s minority stake in African cobalt/copper mine Tenke Fungurume Mining S.A. for $1.14 billion.

January 1, 2017 – China / BHR

BHR invests $460 million in a Chinese facial recognition company.

January 20, 2017 – Obama administration ends

January – February, 2017 – Romania

Robinson Walker, LLC wires Owasco P.C. $44,000

February 16, 2017 – China / CEFC

Chairman Ye Jianming gives Hunter Biden a diamond worth $80,000 after having dinner together in Miami, Florida.

March 1, 2017 – China / CEFC

Chairman Ye Jianming’s company wires $3 million to Robinson Walker LLC. Robinson Walker, LLC is an entity owned by a Biden associate, Rob Walker.

March 6 – May 28, 2017 – China / CEFC

Rob Walker wires at least $1.1 million to Biden family accounts

May 1, 2017 – China / CEFC

In May, Joe Biden attends a CEFC meeting at the Four Seasons in Los Angeles, according to a Biden family associate.

May 13, 2017 – China / CEFC

Email between Biden business associates about the ownership of the CEFC deal, mentioning “10 held by H for the big guy?”

June 2, 2017 – Romania

Robinson Walker, LLC wires Owasco P.C. $61,726.87.

July 30, 2017 – China / CEFC

In a WhatsApp message to a Chinese company, Hunter Biden states, “Please have the director call me – not James or Tony or Jim – have him call me tonight. I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled. I am very concerned that the Chairman has either changed his mind and broken our deal without telling me or that he is unaware of the promises and assurances that have been made have not been kept. Tell the director that I would like to resolve this now before it gets out of hand. And now means tonight. And Z if I get a call or text from anyone involved in this other than you Zhang or the Chairman I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. All too often people mistake kindness for weakness – and all too often I am standing over top of them saying I warned you. From this moment until whenever he reaches me.”

Hunter Biden goes on to say, “Ok my friend – I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father. I sure hope whatever it is you are doing is very very very important.”

August 2, 2017 – China / CEFC

Arrangement between CEFC and Biden family changes as original Biden associates are removed. Hunter Biden writes “The chairman changed that deal after we me[t] in MIAMI TO A MUCH MORE LASTING AND LUCRATIVE ARRANGEMENT to create a holding company 50% percent [sic] owned by ME and 50% owned by him. Consulting fees is one piece of our income stream but the reason this proposal by the chairman was so much more interesting to me and my family is that we would also be partners inn [sic] the equity and profits of the JV’s investments.”

August 2, 2017 – China / CEFC

The joint entity, Hudson West III, LLC is formed, with 50 percent owned by CEFC agent Gongwen Dong and 50 percent owned by Hunter Biden.

August 3, 2017 – China / CEFC

In a Whatsapp exchange, Hunter Biden tells CEFC associate Gongwen “Kevin” Dong, “The Biden’s are the best I know at doing exactly what the Chairman wants from this [partnership].” Gongwen Dong is a business associate of Chairman Ye Jianming who executed numerous transactions on the Ye’s behalf.

August 4, 2017 – China / CEFC

CEFC wires $100,000 to Hunter Biden’s company, Owasco PC.

August 8, 2017 – China / CEFC

CEFC wires $5 million to Hudson West III.

September 21, 2017 – China / CEFC

Hunter Biden requests keys made at his office shared with his Chinese partners: “Joe Biden Jill Biden Jim Biden Gongwen Dong (Chairman Ye CEFC emissary)”; and to adjust his business signage listing The Biden Foundation and Hudson West (CEFC US) on the sign.

November 8, 2017 – China / CEFC

Patrick Ho, a CEFC agent in America, arrested at JFK airport on suspicion of bribery and money laundering on behalf of CEFC China.

February 13, 2018 – Kazakhstan

The U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) issues a notice accusing Rakishev’s Latvian company of money laundering.

March 1, 2018 – China / CEFC

Ye Jianming detained by Chinese authorities for “suspected economic crimes.” His whereabouts remain unknown.

March 23, 2018 – China/ CEFC

Hudson West III LLC and CEFC begin to dissolve.

December 5, 2018 – China / CEFC

Patrick Ho is convicted for violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in a multinational bribery scheme and money laundering offenses.

March 19, 2019 – China / CEFC

Patrick Ho was sentenced to three years after he was found to have bribed officials in Africa in pursuit of oil deals to benefit CEFC China, as well as laundering money through various international accounts to perpetuate these business dealings.

September 21, 2019 – Important date

Joe Biden responds to reporters in Iowa inquiring about his relationship to Hunter Biden’s foreign business ventures: “I have never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings.”

October 13, 2019 – Important date

“Hunter neither played a role in the formation or licensure of [BHR], nor owned any equity in it while his father was Vice President. He served only as a member of its board of directors, which he joined based on his interest in seeking ways to bring Chinese capital to international markets. It was an unpaid position. . . . To date, Hunter has not received any compensation for being on BHR’s board of directors. He has not received any return on his investment; there have been no distributions to BHR shareholders since Hunter obtained his equity interest. Moreover, Hunter played no role in directing or making BHR’s investments. Hunter intends to resign from the BHR board of directors on or by October 31, 2019.” – spokesman for Hunter Biden

December 8, 2019 – Important date

“I don’t know what he was doing,” Joe Biden said of his son’s work for Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, in an interview. “I know he was on the board. I found out he was on the board after he was on the board, and that was it.”

June 13, 2020 – Ukraine

Ukranian law enforcement announces $6M bribery scheme by Mykola Zlochevsky in order to end probe into the Burisma founder.

June 30, 2020 – Important date

FBI FD-1023 form is created. An FD-1023 form is generated by the FBI to memorialize information obtained from a confidential human source. This confidential human source told the FBI that an oligarch had told the CHS he had bribed then-Vice President Biden $5 million (and $5 million for his son, Hunter Biden) in exchange for certain actions related to Ukraine.

October 22, 2020 – Important date

During an October presidential debate, Joe Biden responds to a question about election security: “I have not taken a penny from any foreign source ever in my life.”

October 22, 2020 – Important date

During the same October presidential debate, Joe Biden also said, “My son has not made money, in terms of thing about, what are you talking about? China. The only guy who made money in China is [President Trump].”

March 16, 2023 – Important date

The Oversight and Accountability Committee releases its first bank records memorandum revealing over $1 million in payments from a Chinese company to the Bidens through an associate.

March 17, 2023 – Important date

When asked about his family dealings and whether Biden family members received money from his son’s business associates, Joe Biden responded, “That’s not true.”

May 10, 2023 – Important date

The Oversight and Accountability Committee releases its second bank records memorandum revealing the Bidens’ influence peddling schemes in Romania and China.

June 22, 2023 – Important date

The Committee on Ways and Means releases IRS whistleblower testimony about the Department of Justice’s politicization and misconduct with respect to allegations against Hunter Biden.

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

In an interview Tuesday, President Trump warned that the media is not accurately covering the scale of death and destruction in Ukraine, asserting that “hundreds of thousands of people are dying.”

Trump again reiterated that he wants the war to end immediately, noting “You have cities with no buildings standing. It looks like just a demolition zone. It’s so horrible and, you know, and then they’ll say two people were hurt.”

“No. Hundreds of people and thousands of people were killed. You’re gonna find out when this whole thing is over that the number of people killed is far greater than they tell you,” Trump further urged.

He continued, “They’re not telling you the truth. Many, many thousands, hundreds of thousands of people are dying. Their cities are being obliterated.”

“And basically they say, ‘What’s your stance? Are you for Russia or are for–? I’m for one thing, very simple,” Trump emphasised, adding “I want to stop people from getting killed and I’ll have it stopped, fast.”

Watch:

Trump says the media is lying about the war in Ukraine: “You’re going to find out when this whole thing is over that the number of people killed is far greater than they tell you. They’re not telling you the truth. I’m for one thing. I want to stop people from getting killed.” pic.twitter.com/SKwrCxAMpy

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) July 19, 2023

Aside from Trump, the only people who seem to be interested in the war ending are Hungary and The Vatican. The rest of Europe on the whole seems to be fine with the mass death going on for ‘as long as it takes’.

Hungary is calling for peace—for Ukraine to come to the negotiating table and for countries to stop saber rattling over nuclear weapons. Besides Hungary, only the Vatican seems interested in forcing Ukraine to negotiate some sort of settlement with Russia. pic.twitter.com/vRPDcLzgkd

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 18, 2023

Related:

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Tesla is slated to report earnings after the bell today, and the street is expecting  

• revenue of $24.5B

• EPS of $0.81

• gross margin at 18.7%, down from 19.3% in Q1

• EBITDA at $4.14 billion, down from $4.27 billion YOY

• free cash flow of $2.2 billion

Guidance will be the bigger issue, with Investing.com astutely noting that “a negative EPS surprise can be easily offset by the message that, despite the still challenging 2023, a bright 2024 is on the horizon.”

 The company has already posted its deliveries for the quarter, beating estimates. At the end of Q2, Tesla once again proved that price cuts can help move metal, posting 466,140 deliveries for the quarter, ahead of Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 448,351. The auto manufacturer produced 479,700 vehicles in the quarter, exceeding estimates of 456,617.

Tesla delivered 19,225 Model S/X vehicles in the quarter, beating expectations of 14,606.

The EV manufacturer also delivered 446,915 Model 3/Y vehicles in the quarter, exceeding estimates of 437,386.

One of the key focuses going forward will again be margins, at the street looks to analyze whether price cuts to drive demand will show more of an impact this quarter than they did last year. 

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote this week: “We believe the line in the sand is Auto GM (ex credits) of ~17.5% with [Q2] being the trough quarter for Tesla GM that should ramp back over the coming quarters and back towards the 20% level heading into 2024.”

Jefferies added last week: “We join a consensus view that Q2 will be a trough in auto gross margin.”

Goldman had downgraded the name heading into the end of the quarter. Led by analyst Mark Delaney they cited a tougher pricing environment for autos several weeks ago:

We’re downgrading Tesla shares to Neutral from Buy, as we believe the stock now better reflects our positive long-term view of the company’s growth potential and competitive positioning post the substantial move higher YTD (up 108% vs. the S&P 500 up 13%) and in the last month (up 38% vs. the S&P 500 up 5%). While the primary reason for the change in our view is that we think the market is now giving the stock more credit for its longer-term opportunities, we are also cognizant of the difficult pricing environment for new vehicles that we think will continue to weigh on Tesla’s automotive non-GAAP gross margin this year.

Similar to Morgan Stanley, Delaney couldn’t avoid the fact that he still thinks Tesla is positioned for the long term but believes the stock may be overextended heading into the report, stating: “Overall we believe our view that Tesla is well positioned for long-term growth, given its leading position in the EV and clean energy markets (which we attribute in part to its ability to offer full solutions including charging, storage, software/FSD and services with a direct sales model), is now better reflected in the stock.”

The market will also want to gauge the impact of Ford, GM and Rivian, among others, adopting Tesla’s NACS charging platform. Here are the charging station companies that have announced support for NACS, according to a newly released report from Electrek:

• ABB

• Blink Charging

• Chargepoint

• EVgo

• FLO

• Tritium

• Wallbox

Tesla has 45,000 charging stations worldwide, 12,000 of which are in the US. Tesla owners also receive a J1772 adapter with their car to access more than 53,000 other Level 2 stations in North America. 

The market is also going to be looking for clarity on the Cybertruck and the company’s upcoming gen-3 platform. Just yesterday, the first Cybertruck supposedly rolled off the production line at Tesla, but as The Drive – and many others – pointed out, it looked like it had a misaligned door. The Drive noted that it has now been 1,334 days since Tesla first revealed the Cybertruck and that there is “an abundance of hype still surrounding the stainless steel pickup”. 

During the November 2019 unveiling of the wedge-shaped truck, Musk estimated production would begin in late 2021, with more configurations entering production in 2022. However, production was postponed because of “adjustments.” 

In recent weeks, Twitter users reported seeing an increasing number of Cybertrucks on the road, we noted days ago. 

The company’s plans to expand globally will also be in focus. Recall, just days ago we noted how Elon Musk had his sights set on Italy, India and France. Car and Driver reported last month that Musk “has been spending time in Europe this month as the electric automaker is searching for a place to build another Gigafactory in the EU”.

Musk met not only with French president Emmanuel Macron for the second time in a month, he also spent time with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni.

France’s digital minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, told CNBC last month: “It will be great to have a Tesla factory in France, there has been a lot of effort and energy to make sure this is possible, and this can happen. We have also invested in an . . . entire sector of electric batteries, so we will try to convince him that France is the best possible place in Europe to establish the next Tesla factory.”

Musk also traveled to Rome to meet with Meloni. CNBC reported that Musk and the Prime Minister talked about “innovation, opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence, European market regulations, and birth rates.”

Electrek noted that Tesla is bound to answer these five questions on the ensuing conference call:

• Has any automaker approached Tesla to license FSD?

• When will you get more information about our Cybertruck orders? Estimated delivery schedules, pricing, and specifications?

• Have you considered allowing FSD transferability as a lever to allow existing customers to upgrade to a new Tesla instead of being locked in to existing cars due to price of FSD?

• What is the status of the 4680 Cell? How far are you from the specs you laid out on battery day? When do you expect to achieve what you laid out on Battery Day?

• As you open the supercharger network in North America to other EVs, do you plan to accelerate anticipatory investments in supercharger expansion to avoid congestion, and how will you deal with long lead times to upgrade electric T&D services to these areas for multi-megawatt loads?

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

• The U.S. SPR is currently at a multi-decade low.

• Replenishing 300 million barrels at a cost of even $70 per barrel would cost $21 billion for the oil alone.

• The United States needs the SPR as a safety net less than it did in the ‘70s. 

With the amount of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve now at multi-decade lows, the prospect of replenishing the reserves could be an arduous task according to some, and a cinch to others.

The SPR isn’t empty, contrary to the hyperbolic headlines that have casually misrepresented the current state of the nation’s emergency oil stockpiles. But it is fair to say that the amount of crude oil in the emergency stockpiles is the lowest it’s been in decades and decades – since 1983 to be precise – and it could take decades to put it all back. 

Taken by itself without further context, the current inventory levels and the possibility that it might not be a simple task to purchase hundreds of millions of barrels of oil to replenish it has caused some consternation among those within the oil industry – and without. In fact, it has been especially irksome to many outside the oil industry, who are concerned that without a fully stocked SPR, America will soon be at the hands of some merciless Middle East oil-rich nation or global supply outage.

[ZH: bear in mind that, in the context of the USA’s daily demand, the SPR now has a record low 20-days-worth of supply…]

There are two pieces to this SPR puzzle.

One, is it possible to refill the SPR in short order, and two, does the United States need such a fat SPR anyway. 

SPR Has a Refill Problem

Behind some of the SPR angst are difficulties that come with refilling the SPR with such a large amount of crude oil. Last year, the Biden Administration began the process of selling off 180 million barrels of crude oil that was housed in the salt caverns known as the SPR. Additional sales that were already mandated by Congress followed shortly thereafter, bringing the total number of barrels sold from the SPR since President Biden took office to 291 million barrels.

The problem with refilling the SPR to the tune of nearly 300 million barrels is multifaceted. 

First, oil prices are still a bit above the level that the Biden Administration said would trigger purchasing action. Most short term forecasts are calling for price hikes instead, so the likelihood of prices falling to those levels soon is not estimated to be a sure thing. 

Second, 300 million barrels at a cost of even $70 per barrel would cost $21 billion for the oil alone. Now, the Administration would argue that since it canceled congressionally mandated sales that had called for another 147 million barrels of crude oil to be sold from the SPR, it should be counted that it has already replaced 147 million barrels, leaving only 144 million left to purchase at a minimum cost of $10.8B with $70 oil.

What’s more, that cancellation resulted in Congress taking $12.5 billion away from the DoE that was to be used to repurchase crude oil, leaving it with just $4.3 billion of available cash to buy.

Nevertheless, the Administration is confident that it will refill the SPR, although the anticipated timing of the repurchases depend entirely on who in the Administration is doing the talking. 

Next up is the issue of infrastructure and feasibility of filling, withdrawing, refilling, etc. of the SPR. Those salt caverns are made of… well, salt, and according to SPR former project manager William Gibson, who spoke to Bloomberg, they were built—in the ‘70s—with the idea that they would last 25 years. They were also designed to be withdrawn and refilled just five times, lest the salt caverns simply dissolve. 

As one former official put it, the caverns were “not really intended for daily ATM-type operations.”

Any buyback program would have to be slow-rolled in order to prevent price spikes—the very thing that triggered SPR sales in the first place. In March, even Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that any repurchase scheme would take years.

Does the U.S. Need it Anyway?

In the other camp are those who argue that the United States might not need this oil anyway. When the SPR was first conceived, the United States had just found itself in an energy crisis, with Middle Eastern oil producers withholding crude oil from the United States, which was itself producing 8.4 million barrels of oil per day, while importing 4.1 million bpd, according to EIA data. Total average U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum products was 6.2 million bpd. Having an SPR with a capacity to hold 714 million barrels seemed like a necessary piggy bank should supply shocks reemerge.

Fast forward to today, and the United States’ net imports are -1.3 million bpd, while producing over 12 million bpd. Some would argue that the SPR, while certainly still a handy safety feature for weathering supply shocks like natural disasters, has lost at least some of its climacteric properties.

Still, not all crude oil grades are equal. And while the United States is a net importer of petroleum products, the United States still imports 6.3 million barrels of crude oil every day, and global supply shocks still have the power to put the United States in a tough position, much like the squeeze consumers—and the Biden Administration—felt when demand rushed back quicker than supply post-Covid pandemic. 

Does this Administration Really Want It?

Of course, it’s entirely possible that the Biden Administration is less eager to refill the stockpiles than its words would suggest. Last December, the Biden Administration announced plans to make its first repurchase, issuing a solicitation for 3 million barrels of sour crude. Contracts were due to be awarded in January 2023. WTI was trading at $74 at the time. The purchase was ultimately canceled, with the Administration saying that it did not get offers that met its terms for price or quality. The move triggered critics who claimed the Administration was not earnestly looking to replenish what it had sold off.

But in June of this year, the DoE announced that contracts were awarded for the acquisition of 3 million barrels of U.S.-produced crude for the SPR, while announced a solicitation to purchase another 3.1 million barrels in September. 

At the rate of 6-9 million barrels per year, however, it would take between 33 and 50 years to replenish the 300 million barrels sold. 

The United States needs the SPR as a safety net less than it did in the ‘70s. Crude oil prices might not be low enough ever again to entice the government to purchase. The salt caverns have a limited capacity to accommodate repeated inflows and outflows. Even if the government wishes to replenish in earnest, it will likely take decades to refill.

All these factors point to the likelihood that the SPR will stay empty for decades to come, if not forever.

Moments ago, the Treasury held this week’s lone coupon auction in the form of a 20Y sale (really a 19Y-10M reopening) which came in solid, if not quite as stellar as last week’s auctions.

The high yield of 4.036% was above last month’s 4.010% and the highest since last November’s 4.072%; it also tailed the When Issued 4.035% by one modest basis point.

The bid to cover was 2.68, which while below last month’s 2.87 was just above the recent average of 2.67,

The internals were ok, with Indirects taking down 68.8%, below both last month’s 74.6% and the six-auction average of 72.1%; and with Directs taking down 21.7%, or the second highest on record (only the 26.0% in March 2022 was higher), Dealers were left holding 9.6% of the auction, just below the 9.7% recent average.

Overall, this was a mediocre auction with solid if hardly stellar demand, and pretty much what one would expect for a relatively boring day like today when things are just drifting.

Authored by Tom Mitchellhill via CoinTelegraph.com,

Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has promised to progressively back the United States dollar with Bitcoin if he is elected president. 

Speaking at a July 19 Heal-the-Divide PAC event, Kennedy claimed that backing the U.S. dollar with what he called “hard currency,” including gold, silver, platinum or Bitcoin, could help to re-stabilize the American economy.

“Backing dollars and U.S. debt obligations with hard assets could help restore strength back to the dollar, rein in inflation and usher in a new era of American financial stability, peace and prosperity.”

RFK Jr. on fiat currency & #bitcoin
pic.twitter.com/2XA5NYyAMb

— Laketic (@IsidoraLaketic) July 19, 2023

Kennedy explained the process would be gradual and that, depending on the plan’s success, he’d adjust the amount of backing for the dollar.

“My plan would be to start very, very small; perhaps 1% of issued T-bills would be backed by hard currency, by gold, silver, platinum or Bitcoin,” he said.

Additionally, Kennedy declared he would make Bitcoin to U.S. dollar conversions exempt from capital gains taxes.

RFK wants to make Bitcoin tax-free.

Would you vote for him?pic.twitter.com/6KIUVHwnJp

— Mando (@rektmando) July 19, 2023

In his view, the proposed exemption would spur investment and incentivize ventures to grow their business in the U.S. instead of other crypto-friendly jurisdictions such as Singapore or Switzerland.

Kennedy’s latest round of pro-Bitcoin comments come in the wake of his appearance at Miami’s Bitcoin 2023 conference on May 19 where he announced that he would accept political campaign donations in Bitcoin.

On July 9, investment disclosures found that Kennedy owned up to $250,000 worth of Bitcoin, despite his previous statements where he denied having any exposure to the asset.

RFK Jr. is one of many presidential hopefuls to make sweeping crypto-based promises. On July 14, Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis promised to ban central bank digital currencies if elected president.

“If I am the president, on day one, we will nix central bank digital currency. Done. Dead. Not happening in this country,” DeSantis said.

Two IRS whistleblowers are scheduled to testify at the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday, where they’re expected to describe an “undeniable pattern of preferential treatment” for the Biden family, and “obstruction of the normal investigative process” when it comes to the multi-year investigation into Hunter Biden.

“From the thousands of financial records we’ve obtained, we know the Biden family set up over a 20 shell companies, engaged in intentionally complicated financial transactions with foreign adversaries, and made a concerted effort to hide the payments and avoid scrutiny,” said Committee Chairman James Comer last month.

This is far from a partisan witch hunt – as one of the whistleblowers, who previously testified before the House Ways & Means Committee last month, is a 13-year special agent with the IRS’ Criminal Investigation Division, and is a “gay Democrat married to a man,” according to his prepared testimony obtained by Fox News.

The anonymous whistleblower will also say that Hunter Biden “should have been charged with a tax felony, and not only the tax misdemeanor charge,” and that communications and text messages reviewed by investigators “may be a contradiction to what President Biden was saying about not being involved in Hunter’s oversea business dealings.”

That whistleblower is also expected to testify on several instances in which prosecutors “did not follow the ordinary process, slow-walked the investigation, and put in place unnecessary approvals and roadblocks from effectively and efficiently investigating the case,” including prosecutors blocking questioning and interviewing of Hunter Biden’s adult children.

The whistleblower is also expected to ask Congress and the Biden Administration to “consider a special counsel” for the Hunter Biden investigation and “all the related cases and spin-off investigations that have come forward from this investigation.” -Fox News

The other whistleblower, Gary Shapley, testified in May that he witnessed “examples of preferential treatment and politics improperly infecting decisions and protocols that would normally be followed by career law enforcement professionals in similar circumstances if the subject were not politically connected.”

The whistleblowers are also alleging that federal prosecutors blocked lines of questioning related to President Biden and that the US attorney in charge of the probe, David Weiss, did not have full authority to bring charges.

Watch:

“Related cases that I believe are subject to the same problems and difficulties we had,” the anonymous whistleblower is expected to testify, and will add that Congress should consider “establishing an official channel for Federal investigators to pull the emergency cord and raise the issue of the appointment of a special counsel for consideration by your senior officials.”

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In the social media era, where attention spans are measured in seconds, and 300-500 words are considered a “readable” article length, our articles can be too much for some readers at three to four times “readable” length. Instead of writing another 1,500-to-2,000-word diatribe on why we like bonds, we present a “readable,” sub-500-word elevator pitch for U.S. Treasury Bonds.

Our Simple Elevator Pitch

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?

Have the forty-year pre-pandemic economic trends reversed, and the economy’s inner workings changed permanently over the last three years?

More specifically, are slowing productivity growth, weakening demographics, and rising debt levels about to reverse their prior trends and become a tailwind for economic growth.

If you think, as we do, that the last three years are an economic, fiscal, and monetary anomaly, then the opportunity to earn 4% or more on a longer-term bond is a gift. We think yields will revert to extremely low levels when the pre-pandemic economic and inflation trends reemerge. Negative interest rates are not out of the question.

Is This Time Different?

If you believe this time is different. Ergo, the last three years will be like the next three years and beyond, then bonds will likely be a poor investment. For that to be true, the fiscal, monetary, and behavioral actions we witnessed in 2020 and 2021 are not one-off events related to the pandemic.

Fiscal deficits are high but normalizing and well off the pandemic amounts. The Fed is forcibly reversing its excessively easy pandemic policies. Revenge spending is still occurring, but consumer spending behaviors are slowly reverting to normal levels. Further, the excess savings from the pandemic will evaporate in the coming months. Lastly, high credit card interest rates will keep a lid on the recent extreme credit card usage.

Inflation Adjusted Yields Are Tempting

Real yields, the yield after deducting implied inflation rates, are tempting if you believe the trends of the pre-pandemic years stay intact. Today, investors can buy a risk-free 5-year Treasury note and earn a real yield of over 2%. That is generous compared to the .55% average of the last 20 years and the -.20% average rate since 2010.  

Summary

To keep this “readable,” we reiterate our simple elevator pitch question, is this time different? Is a continuation of the economic, fiscal, and monetary activity of 2020 and 2021 more likely? Or is a resumption of the trends of the prior 40 years more likely?  

At 471 words, we hope we succinctly informed you that we do not believe the trends of the last forty years will reverse. Consequently, we consider bond yields well above implied inflation rates and inflation rates of the prior decade a great opportunity. 

At a time when absolutely everyone (and their kitchen sink, cat and uncle) is working on their own version of chatGPT – because who wouldn’t want to be the next “biggest and best” AI frontrunner leading to an avalanche of term sheets from idiot investors such as Soft Bank – moments ago AAPL, already the world’s largest company by market cap, just spiked 2%, gaining more than $60 billion in market cap in seconds, after Bloomberg reported that Apple is “quietly” (really? quietly?) working on artificial intelligence tools that could challenge those from (Microsoft’s) OpenAI, Google and others… even though the company has “yet to devise a clear strategy for releasing the technology to consumers.”

More from the report:

The iPhone maker has built its own framework to create large language models — the AI-based systems at the heart of new offerings like ChatGPT and Google’s Bard — according to people with knowledge of the efforts. With that foundation, known as “Ajax,” Apple also has created a chatbot service that some engineers call “Apple GPT.”

In recent months, the AI push has become a major effort for Apple, with several teams collaborating on the project, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The work includes trying to address potential privacy concerns related to the technology. A spokesman for the Cupertino, California-based company declined to comment.

What is hilarious is that while the AI algos only skimmed the headline, the punchline is hidden some 14 paragraphs down, where you find this:

“Apple employees say the company’s tool essentially replicates Bard, ChatGPT and Bing AI, and doesn’t include any novel features or technology”

So AAPL is doing to openAI what Facebook is doing to Twitter: copying and pasting with zero value added and zero creativity. Yet this is good enough to push the stock up $60 billion.

And this is where we are in the market: a place where what is obvious not only passes as news – because it would be news if Apple was not working on its own version of chatGPT as it has now become obvious even to 5-year-olds that AI is this generation’s blockchain/3Dprinter/cannabis etc – but results in ridiculous market cap gains for some, and losses for others (such as the value stocks which form the pair trade with tech).

Refreshingly, after the initial euphoria, the algos had a chance to peruse our mocking tweets…

to summarize: AAPL just gained $60BN in market cap because a report it is working on what everyone else is working on https://t.co/ZNYbnRY2UF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 19, 2023

… and promptly realized that we may have finally hit peak AIphoria.

• NASDAQ 100 QUICKLY FALLS, BRIEFLY TURNS NEGATIVE

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The weaker dollar and tentative signs global growth will soon turn up point to a rise in US and global earnings growth, adding a support to equities.

As the US earnings season gets going, aggregate annual EPS growth for the S&P continues to slide.

But there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The steady weakening in the dollar seen since September should soon provide a tailwind for US earnings.

This comes at the time of a nascent upturn in global growth.

Taiwan, as a small, open economy, and a major producer of a highly cyclical product – semiconductors – is very sensitive to the cross-currents in the global economy.

The ups and downs in Taiwan’s export growth typically lead the ups and downs in global EPS growth.

Furthermore, leading data for US manufacturing is turning up. The ISM new orders-to-inventory ratio gives a short lead on the headline index, and has pronouncedly turned up. Manufacturing is highly cyclical and the US ISM is the sine qua non of macro indicators of global growth.

All this is supportive of US and global earnings. However, the primary endogenous risk is inflation. Expectations are that inflation keeps going down and stays down, but a re-acceleration would upset the apple cart. The dollar would likely begin strengthening – imperiling US earnings – while the depressive impact it would have on excess liquidity would jeopardize the expected upturn in global growth.

The disinflation trend is creating a sweet spot for assets and the global economy for now, but a re-rise in inflation would leave the outlook less favorable.