update(1745ET): The Pentagon has confirmed late in the day Sunday that US forces have continues launching more strikes on Iran throughout the day, describing that the latest wave of strikes are aimed to “degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners.”

US Central Command has been providing more frequent updates throughout the day, as the conflict intensifies. “At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” it stated. “The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian forces accountable.” According to some emerging targeting info:

• Explosions have also been heard in Iran’s Qeshm Island as well as Jask, state TV is reporting.
• Iran’s state TV is reporting explosions near Sirik and west of Bandar Abbas.
• CNN: Within past hour, IRGC fired at commercial shipping
• Trump was on NBC’s Meet the Press a few hours ago, and described Saturday’s US strikes on the Iranian military by saying, “We bombed the hell out of them.”

And more of the latest from Trump:

Also Sunday, President Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the strait was open to commercial traffic.

“It’s open. We bombed the hell out of them last night. They’re very, very evil and sick people,” Trump said. He said that the Iranians agreed to “a perfect deal for us” the day prior — “no nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything.”

“And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone at a ship,” Trump said.

In the meantime The Washington Post has on Sunday issued an investigative report from the opening days of the war. Washington Post on Sunday is reporting that six Americans were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait during the second day of sustained exchanges of fire, on March 1st. Military sources cited in WaPo allege this was after American military commanders failed to act on warnings that the targeted facility was vulnerable. The emerging details point toward a severe failure of operational oversight:

Exclusive: Six soldiers died on day two of the Iran war in a drone strike on Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. Dozens more were wounded, some seriously.

It’s one of the war’s costliest attacks for U.S. personnel — and survivors fear no one will be held accountable. https://t.co/jBXpUs3bZz

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 12, 2026

Update 1210ET. 

* * *

Update 10:40pm ET.

Somewhat predictably, as has been the pattern of this war – Iran is in the very early morning hours (local) launching retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf nations, or as the Iranians say against US assets and bases in the Gulf. Per state media:

IRAN LAUNCHES SERIES OF STRIKES AGAINST US TARGETS: PRESS TV

Last week Kuwait and Bahrain were favored targets, but there are signs that Iran – now with reports of Tehran having been hit tonight (CBS) – could begin widening its attacks to include the UAE, or even potentially the Saudis (though there have yet to be signs of this). 

What’s clear is that things are back to square one – with the MoU agreement clearly effectively dead, unless diplomacy gets into overdrive and both sides show some measure of restraint. But restraint is not evident currently, only a widening up the escalation ladder.

Iran has fired 12 Ballisitc Missiles towards Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan

Reports of 3 impacts.

The reason they aimed there could be for the F-35s parked there. We shall see. I was expecting them to aim for Bahrain or Kuwait. pic.twitter.com/zfYEJmTW3a

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

To recount from where we started Saturday morning, we wrote…

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors “The Escalation Trap,” has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah’s funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

“The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend,” Pape said. “The balance of political will shifted.“

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: “The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation.” 

*  *  *

Update 8:40pm ET.

At 7:15pm ET, the US launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week after Tehran declared that it’s closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice”, and Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

US Central Command said that President Donald Trump ordered the fresh strikes, which targeted Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, after the latest Iranian attack on the Hormuz-crossing vessel. Central Command said a civilian crew member is missing and the ship was unable to continue its journey after suffering significant damage.

At 7:15 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A civilian crew…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 11, 2026

Shortly after the Iran’s state-run media reported explosions at multiple areas along the country’s southern coasts, including the energy and petrochemical hubs of Bushehr and Asalouyeh. Blasts were also reported at the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e Dayyer, as well as the Sirik area near the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: The IRNA news agency says more than 10 explosions have been heard in the port city of Jask in the southern Hormozgan province.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/sfnZg9WSSH pic.twitter.com/FAzm8nC9ou

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 12, 2026

According to unconfirmed reports, the US strikes on Iran have reached all the way north to the Capital of Iran, Tehran as the US goes “full scale from bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.”

CBS Reports the Strikes on Iran have reached the Capital of Iran, Tehran

The U.S. is going FULL SCALE from the bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Iran’s air force is in the air and air defenses are active over TEHRAN pic.twitter.com/S0c6DWz9dE

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

“Iran made a poor choice,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on social media. “Now they pay.”

Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay. https://t.co/8m4fEfgrXv

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) July 11, 2026

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the Hormuz closure, saying it won’t allow any vessels to pass through until foreign interference ends, according to state-run IRIB News. The IRGC said it halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite being told not to, the outlet added.

The developments cast significant doubts over the potential for talks aimed at trying to reach a more lasting peace deal. The rhetoric had been getting more heated on both sides in recent days even as the two parties had suggested there was still room for conversations. 

Reports from Iran of heavy new U.S. airstrikes in a Bandar Abbas, Bushehr nuclear facility, Minab, Qeshm, and several other locations pic.twitter.com/k2zK9N5pOm

— Emily Schrader – אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) July 11, 2026

Earlier on Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for talks on the future of Hormuz, but there was no sign of involvement by senior US envoys. Also Earlier, Iran demanded that the US implement key commitments under a recent deal before more talks take place, rejecting Trump’s contention that negotiations could continue without a ceasefire. Tehran said Washington must meet Iran’s conditions for resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing its oil exports.

On Friday Trump threatened to shower Iran with “1000 Missiles” if it acted on a threat to kill the US leader, “in this case, ME!”

The US had also demanded that Iran publicly declare all channels of the Hormuz open to shipping and pledge not to attack civilian vessels transiting the waterway. Tehran would face consequences if it fails to deliver the public assurance, senior Trump administration officials told reporters. Those demands followed several days of US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation that sent oil prices higher this week. 

The Islamic Republic is holding a three-day memorial ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a days-long funeral that drew large crowds to cities in Iran and neighboring Iraq. Khamenei was killed in an attack as the US and Israel began their war on Iran at the end of February.

His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Saturday called for revenge for the killing of his father.

“It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said in a post on X.

Earlier

Iran has thrown Trump’s ultimatum and Saturday deadline right back at Washington, saying that instead it is the United States that must first meet the agreed-upon conditions in order to normalize shipping and energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars news agency reports Saturday that Iranian leadership is demanding that the US implement “agreed-upon understandings” before any talks take place. While the White House has declared the ceasefire to be ‘over’ – it has also indicated ongoing contacts and talks with Iran via mediators. But this appears to have been reduced to simple ultimatums being shuttled between capitals by Qatari mediators. There are no actual sit-down talks on the horizon after two rounds of fresh tit-for-tat attacks broke out this past week.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) itself is barely alive at this point, also with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, separately announcing that Tehran could stop honoring the MoU if US attacks continue. 

“Should the United States continue to violate its obligations under the MoU, Iran will no longer be bound to fulfil its obligations under the MoU,” Iravani told reporters at UN headquarters.

But he did make clear that Iran is still committed to the agreement “provided that the United States fully and faithfully complies with its own obligations.”

President Trump has meanwhile continued to issue his own warnings and threats. He said Friday that the US military would “completely decimate” Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out his assassination. He took it a step further in an overnight Truth Social Post, saying he has 1,000 missiles “locked and loaded” – aimed at Iran – should he be targeted by Tehran’s agents.

Strangely, the US President signed off with his puzzling “praise be to Allah!” reference – perhaps mockingly or sarcastically.

Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still hasn’t been seen in public after the Feb.28 US-Israeli airstrikes took out his father, killed members of his family, and reportedly badly wounded him. Mojtaba is said to be observing a private memorial for his slain father, and made no known appearance at the week-long funeral processions and burial.

But on Saturday he did call for revenge in a rare public message. “It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said.

“We pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two [recent] wars by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers,” the Ayatollah also stated. “This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done.”

He issued a series of statements tinged with Shia Islamic references. His words contain repeat vows to enacting vengeance, including this not so veiled threat to kill Iran’s enemies: 

The criminal, disgraceful murderers of the martyred Leader, whose names are fully documented from the highest to the lowest ranks, will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave.

— Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (@MKhamenei_ir) July 11, 2026

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors “The Escalation Trap,” has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah’s funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

“The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend,” Pape said. “The balance of political will shifted.“

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: “The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation.” 

Chinese e-commerce platforms are selling miniature heads that, according to Fred Lambert at the EV blog Electrek, are being used to “trick Tesla’s cabin camera into thinking a driver is paying attention.”

Priced at $20 to $50 and marketed as dashboard decorations or “travel companions,” these miniature heads are mounted near the rearview mirror to mimic a human face while Autopilot or Full Self-Driving is engaged.

via Instagram user “decentmiss_” … 

While FSD is engaged, Tesla’s cabin camera monitors driver attentiveness, including whether the driver repeatedly looks away from the road, and issues warnings when attention appears to lapse. Tesla requires increased supervision when FSD is in “Mad Max” or “Hurry” mode.

Videos of the miniature heads recently went viral on social media, suggesting that some users in China are employing them to trick Tesla’s driver-attention safeguards.

😈🔥The Chinese have already found a hack for the driver-monitoring cameras inside the cars. 💀😂 pic.twitter.com/owW95q0ERp

— Alladdin (@Alladdin1983) July 11, 2026

Here is Lambert’s first take:

Let me be direct: anyone mounting a fake head to defeat their Tesla’s driver monitoring system is putting their life and the lives of everyone around them at risk. And the sellers profiting from these devices are enabling potentially fatal behavior for $30 a pop.

Over the years, drivers have used various defeat devices, such as counterweights attached to the steering wheel to trick the torque sensor into believing someone was holding it. Tesla countered that workaround with the cabin camera, but now must address the issue of miniature heads.

Related:

• Is Tesla About To Use Facial Recognition Before Activating Full Self-Driving

Tesla’s fastest countermeasure would likely be an over-the-air software update that uses facial recognition of the driver.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Inflection Point Overload? 

Between 250th Celebrations, heat waves, power failures, and jet lag, I feel more discombobulated than I have in a long time (I do admit that I really liked a sign that I think was in PHX airport just past security – Recombobulation Area). I think that’s what I could use.

In any case, last weekend’s ProSec Mid-Year Outlook is worth checking out. We had people send us several variations of the same theme – the concept is catching on for investors and corporations even if the name isn’t (yet). 

We also published our positive take on where Compute credit spreads are headed. “Compute” is meant to capture data centers, AI, and the entire ecosystem. We are a bit more focused on the corporate bond side of things, but there are implications and ramifications on the private and project finance/structured side of the world too. We are positive on the sector for a number of reasons and will be expanding on the rationale in the coming days (or weeks, as this week’s schedule of Berlin, Munich, Rome, Dublin, and Belfast may leave little time for typing). 

While the Iran conflict may seem to be at an inflection point (the risk of escalation is back on the table), we expect this is just a move to a riskier end of the current status quo, rather than a shift in how markets should be thinking about this conflict. However, it is important to note that the U.S. strategy, with the ceasefire having been declared “over,” is shifting to a priority of re-establishing deterrence. Neil Wiley from our GIG, the former Principal Executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that “Iran will calculate that they can strike when it suits, confident that they can comfortably endure whatever comes back at them. In this circumstance, there is fundamentally no deterrence. I am concerned that this is now where we find ourselves. Establishing or re-establishing deterrence requires, ironically, a very disproportionate response.” This is what we have seen this week with the third strikes being launched by the U.S. on Saturday in response to yet another Iranian attack on commercial shipping in the Strait. The U.S. has both shortened the time between Iranian attacks and its strikes and increased the magnitude of its retaliatory strikes in an effort to convince Iran that it is not in its best interest to continue these attacks. We will have to see if this has the intended effect, but the message is clear: the U.S. is now hitting Iran much harder than before for allowing the IRGC to attack ships in the Strait, even if it is just rogue elements of the IRGC conducting these attacks. 

Possible Inflection Points 

AI spending. This is the most important potential inflection point for the market and the economy. Is it slowing at all? Are there bottlenecks that will slow it, even if it doesn’t want to be slowed? The market seems to oscillate back and forth. While I think the answer remains to be determined, there are many stocks in the sector down well into double digits on a percentage basis in recent weeks, so maybe the market already answered the question and we can move on? We discuss this to some degree in both the Thursday report and last weekend’s report as well. 

• Earnings. I rarely focus on earnings. About 70% of companies will beat earnings and Wall Street (checks calendar) will act surprised for the 200th quarter running! But this time I will pay more attention than usual. Last quarter, earnings really seemed to be what turned the stock market around. We can argue and nitpick that it was possibly too few sectors that really drove the earnings story (lots participated, but there were some really positive outliers). More recently, a chip company’s earnings call set the stage for the latest rebound in tech as it convincingly laid out the case for strong demand, and more importantly, committed orders for years to come. I’m not about to go all in on understanding the earnings season dynamics, but I will be paying closer attention. It is nice that many companies will combine to determine how good earnings season is for the market (for a few quarters, it all seemed to hang on NVDA). 

Russia/Ukraine. Are we nearing an inflection point here? From “how are you dressed in my office” to “sure, we can set up a Patriot missile factory in your country,” the relationship between the President and Zelensky has changed. I can’t remember the last time the President played the “droog” card with Putin. A Clockwork Orange had many “slang” words (Nadsat) based on Russian words (some argue Ukrainian), so it seemed like an appropriate time to insert a reference. In any case, the war is changing. Russia is attacking Ukraine more heavily (dangerous for Ukraine, but likely a sign of things getting worse for Russia). Increasingly, Ukraine is being allowed to follow a military plan along the lines of what our GIG would have drawn up on day 1 (there have been restrictions on what they could do, even when they had the right hardware, on top of lack of access to some hardware). Trump hinted that the U.S. now has mineral stakes in Ukraine during his recent trip. If there is a peace deal of any sort, expect opportunities for investments in Russia and Ukraine. Expect Poland to be a staging ground for many U.S. operations (corporate, investment, and military) into both Ukraine and Russia. Peace doesn’t seem close, but with both sides having more firepower, as well as their own sets of difficulties, maybe we are nearing that time? 

Japanese Yen. The infamous carry trade. 

Both times we had steep declines in the USD vs JPY, we saw U.S. equity markets sell off. The summer of 2024 was linked to the carry trade, while spring of 2025 was more about tariffs and Liberation Day. Is the yen going to continue to decline? By all accounts, betting against the yen, especially after recent attempts at intervention have failed, is a popular trade (dare I say, consensus?). The case for a weaker yen makes a lot of sense, but, as a contrarian, the opportunity for a rapid appreciation seems worth paying attention to, if not betting on. 

Crypto and DATCos. Digital Asset Treasury Companies have been both a blessing and a curse to crypto. The companies certainly provided a lot of support on the way up. Some DATCos do a lot with their crypto and are heavily involved in the infrastructure of the space. Others seem to be accumulation vehicles, where their sources of funds to accumulate have grown more complex. 

There is no arguing that this administration has been pro-crypto. The enthusiasm post-2024 election is obvious. The naming of the crypto czar and an accommodating regulatory environment helped push crypto to all-time highs. It has been a “dark” time since then. While headlines have generally been positive, crypto has struggled. In recent weeks, much of the selling has been attributed to MSTR selling bitcoin to fund some of its “debt” servicing requirements (really preferreds). The “security” best known as STRC ($STRC on Twitter) has been front and center in recent angst. That security seems to have bottomed as the Strategy team has announced several steps (changing the payment schedule, increasing the dividend, and selling a larger amount of crypto to raise more USD). Have they done enough to alleviate market fears? Is this an inflection point, where the market can move beyond the current needs of some DATCos and focus on potential upside from the administration continuing to embrace crypto? Or are we headed to new lows, despite that support, which would be scary? My expectation is that the bounce we’ve seen will be short-lived, as FOMO in crypto is almost gone (very few advisors not already allocated to crypto seem that excited about the prospect at the moment). And the gambling/get-rich-quick crowd has long since moved from crypto. Watch this market as the next leg is likely to be important for overall market sentiment/cash flows. 

Inflation. Our argument for expecting rate cuts before hikes and possibly as soon as September hinges on inflation. Yes, Warsh is watching inflation. But: 

• Inflation is coming down. The classic “magician” in the room. Warsh is an inflation hawk because he expects inflation to come down. 
• While we weren’t selected for the data source task force, by all accounts his selections to run the various task forces have been met with approval. Even with the announcement, it might be too early to expect a change in which data is deemed most important by September. Given the people picked, it may take longer to establish the committee and deliver findings than I hoped or expected. 

For our view on the path of rates, we need this to be true, and we are betting on it. The market definitely has a different perception (either on the path of inflation or on how much Warsh cares about inflation) than we do. 

Bottom Line 

While many might hope for a “sleepy” July, given how frantic this year has been, with so many key markets at possible inflection points, it seems like hoping for a dull summer is wishful thinking (for those hoping to take a break from the screens). This might be one of the most consequential earnings seasons that I can remember, let alone for a summer earnings season. 

Holtec announced last week that the major refurbishment projects at Palisades are complete.

Reactor vessel inspections, head penetration replacements, steam generator tube refurbishment, primary system decontamination, and operator training all wrapped up. New fuel now sits on site, ready for loading. The company called it a “watershed moment” and shifted focus to grinding through the remaining work.

Yet there is still no restart date…

     “Holtec International remains on track to restart operations at Palisades in October 2025”

These are the comments provided by a Utility Dive article in 2025 after they spoke with Holtec’s International Director of Government Affairs and Communications Patrick O’Brien.

Needless to say, that date has passed. Starting earlier this year, the company pivoted to the vaguer line that Palisades would restart “when the plant is ready for long-term operations.” CEO Kris Singh told the Financial Times he still expects the plant back this year, ahead of the March 2027 power supply contract. But “this year” is now half over with no firm schedule attached.

When the $1.5 billion DOE loan closed in 2024, expectations centered on a late 2025 restart. As the first deadline came to pass near the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, material issues, particularly with steam generators, had pushed the target into the middle of 2026. 

Each update added a few more months. Now the language has softened further into “steady progress” and “when ready.” More than 5,000 individual work activities remain on the checklist. Most are described as routine maintenance, testing, inspection, and operational readiness items. 

The legal and financial pieces have at least moved forward. A federal court dismissed the environmental groups’ lawsuit challenging the NRC exemption that allows a decommissioned plant to restart. 

Holtec is also preparing an IPO that multiple outlets peg at a roughly $10 billion valuation.

Palisades was always presented as the easiest restart project on the table. An existing plant on an existing site, with a recently operating license framework, the first major DOE loan guarantee, and novel NRC regulatory pathways created specifically to enable it. If any restart should have translated funding, approvals, and major refurbishment work into electrons on the grid without prolonged slippage, this was the one. 

The repeated movement of internal targets and the current shift to “when the plant is ready for long-term operations” instead makes reactor restarts look more uncertain and execution-heavy than simply licensing and building a new plant from scratch. That undercuts the core industry argument that restarts represent the lowest-risk, fastest path to new nuclear capacity.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Sometimes the best conversations happen after an argument.

That’s exactly what unfolded this week when I sat down with fund manager Larry Lepard for a discussion that almost never happened. After disagreeing earlier in the week over my criticism of Michael Saylor, Strategy, and the company’s evolving Bitcoin strategy, we decided to hash it out publicly in a podcast/debate. Stupid thing to get in the way of a friendship, right?

The result wasn’t a shouting match. It was a substantive debate between two people who actually agree on more than they disagree. We both remain skeptical of today’s euphoric markets. We both think most of crypto outside of Bitcoin is likely worthless. And we both believe Bitcoin deserves to be taken seriously as a macro asset.

Where we disagree is on Strategy. My argument was never that the company is headed for an imminent collapse. In fact, I acknowledged that its new Bitcoin monetization framework, dedicated cash reserves, and more disciplined capital allocation likely buy the company significant time while improving financial flexibility.

My concern is with management credibility. Earlier this year Michael Saylor insisted Strategy would not become a Bitcoin seller. Today, the company has sold Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy while shifting its messaging toward liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. I also questioned why “Bitcoin Yield,” once heavily promoted by both Saylor and CEO Phong Le, has largely disappeared from public messaging now that the metric has become less favorable. To me, consistency matters, especially when investors are being asked to trust management.

Larry’s response was that I’m confusing adaptation with deception. He argued management simply adjusted after learning where the market’s tolerance for leverage actually sits. Rather than signaling distress, he believes the company’s new emphasis on liquidity strengthens the business and reassures investors that dividend obligations remain easily manageable.

His broader point was that the balance sheet simply doesn’t support the bearish narrative. With roughly $6 billion of debt against tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin holdings, Larry believes Strategy remains well insulated, even if Bitcoin suffers another major drawdown.

I pushed back by arguing that the entire bull case rests on assumptions continuing to hold. Bitcoin has never existed alongside equity markets this expensive, nor has there ever been a corporate treasury vehicle as large as Strategy simultaneously serving as one of the market’s biggest buyers while now acknowledging it can also become a seller.

Leverage changes the equation. Every preferred issue, dividend obligation, and financing decision adds another layer that depends on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate over time. If Bitcoin performs as expected, those obligations remain manageable. If it doesn’t, they become increasingly important.

Larry countered that I was overly focused on downside scenarios while overlooking Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside. He pointed to prior drawdowns, increasing institutional adoption, ETF ownership, and long-term network growth as evidence that Bitcoin continues following the same path it always has.

One place we found plenty of common ground was on crypto more broadly. Larry argued most of the crypto ecosystem is ultimately worthless while Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. I largely agreed, though I noted that a collapse elsewhere in crypto could still create broader risk-off pressure that spills over into Bitcoin and highly levered companies like Strategy.

The biggest takeaway wasn’t who won the debate. It was that markets need more conversations like this. Healthy skepticism shouldn’t automatically be confused with pessimism, and pointing out risks isn’t the same as predicting disaster.

Larry remains convinced Strategy is one of the market’s best long-term opportunities.I remain convinced that management credibility, leverage, and changing narratives deserve scrutiny. Reasonable people can disagree. That’s exactly what made the conversation worth having.

Now you can watch the full debate 100% free and decide for yourself.

(WATCH THE FULL DEBATE, 100% FREE, HERE). 

—

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Did the Israelis do it?  Did the US government?  Did Charlie Kirk’s wife plan it?  Did Trump have Charlie killed?  Nope. It turns out that all the theories raging online about the “real” assassins behind the Charlie Kirk murder were complete bunk – A distraction away from the obvious suspect and the leftist movement that inspired him.     

Anyone waiting for concrete evidence to be produced before forming conclusions on the Tyler Robinson case was richly rewarded in the past week, because the preliminary court hearing did not disappoint. 

The prosecution produced a substantial evidence trial implicating Robinson in the killing, including testimony from his trans lover and roommate, Lance Twiggs (aka “Luna”).  Twiggs recounted Robinson’s confession that he did, in fact, shoot Charlie Kirk, and he identified Robinson in multiple surveillance videos showing Robinson scouting the UVU campus in Orem, Utah.  

🚨 WATCH: FULL video of Lance Twiggs’ DAMNING testimony about accused Charlie Kirk kiIIer Tyler Robinson

It’s pretty clear why the defense worked SO hard to hide this

KEY MOMENTS:

01:08 – Placed under OATH, agreeing to give testimony under penalty of perjury
01:58 -… pic.twitter.com/tUubdhC1yD

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 9, 2026

Not surprisingly, Robinson’s defense team tried unsuccessfully to block the release of this testimony to the media and the public.  The Twiggs interview confirms statements made in the original arrest report, which included the fact that Robinson confessed to his own family members that he committed the crime.  It’s the reason they arranged for Tyler to turn himself in to law enforcement.    

This arrest report was made available to the public not long after Kirk’s assassination.  Yet, Robinson’s confession to his family was ignored and conspiracy theories persisted.  Unless everyone involved is “in on the conspiracy”, including Robinson trans lover and his own family, then there is no viable defense.  Robinson’s defense team’s only recourse has been to block as much evidence as possible from being seen by the public. 

This includes never before released high definition footage which media witnesses in the courtroom describe as detailed images of a man identified by investigators (and witnesses viewing the footage) as Tyler Robinson climbing to the roof, going prone with a rifle, and “jolting” (as if absorbing the recoil of a rifle shot). 

Just witnessed something at the Charlie Kirk assassination pre-trial in Utah that has NOT been made public yet and you need to hear about it…

Erika Kirk asked for us to be here today. We sat inside the small courthouse in Provo with the family. The Judge told the media to turn… pic.twitter.com/vDFCnY53ah

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 10, 2026

He then runs across the roof and jumps off the edge with an item wrapped in a towel.  Robinson’s defense team presented no alibi for his whereabouts during this time, which means he doesn’t have one. 

Oh, what’s this?

The prosecutors in Charlie Kirk’s murder trial telling the Judge they have video of Tyler Robinson taking the shot:

“Tyler makes his way to the sniper’s perch. Takes the shot. Then runs, drops off the building. All captured on video.”
👀 pic.twitter.com/89YNx9WtxN

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 11, 2026

Though this video will not be released to the public (yet) on the request of the defense team, it corroborates already available footage of a man identified as Tyler Robinson leaving a vehicle (a gray Dodge Charger) registered to him, walking across the campus and entering the building stairwell with a limp just before the shooting. 

New video shows what a law enforcement officer identified as Tyler Robinson walking with a limp on the UVU campus shortly before Charlie Kirk’s murder. It’s been suggested that it may have been due to a concealed gun or gun part. pic.twitter.com/4tR7LNjx5H

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 7, 2026

Beyond the video footage, DNA evidence from the rifle and the towel it was wrapped in was identified as belonging to Tyler Robinson and Lance Twiggs.  Twiggs testified that Robinson had also asked him about the use of a Dremel tool to etch “messages on bullets”.  The rifle rounds recovered from the Kirk shooting was etched with Antifa related phrases including ““Hey fascist! Catch!” and “Oh Bella, ciao, bella, ciao Bella ciao ciao ciao” (From an Antifa rally song). 

Robinson’s family and Lance Twiggs noted in the arrest report and interviews than Robinson had expressed political anger against Charlie Kirk and Donald Trump leading up to the shooting.  Robinson was, without a doubt, motivated by left-wing politics, which undermines the false narrative promoted by media pundits and celebrities like Jimmy Kimmel that Robinson is conservative. 

Soft point .30 cal bullet fragments were recovered from Charlie Kirk’s body and shown in the hearing.  And though identifying tool marks were destroyed by the impact and fragmentation, the bullet caliber matches the rifle that was recovered (with Robinson’s DNA all over it).  

The evidence is so overwhelming that many commentators expect Robinson to change his plea to guilty.  This would likely save his parents from being put on the stand and going through the pain of testifying against their own son (which they’re going to do if the case goes to jury trial).  The presiding judge (Judge Tony Graf) has until September to decide if the case will go forward.  The extended wait time may be designed to give Robinson an opportunity to change his plea in order to avoid the death penalty.  

Everyone Robinson knows is confirming his guilt, because he confessed to them that he did it.  

It is unfortunate that Charlie Kirk’s wife and family have been made to suffer through the indignity of unfounded theories while waiting so many months for this evidence to be released.  It’s greatly distressing that the woke left also continues to engage in political violence and assassination attempts, emboldened by Robinson’s success. 

It should not surprise anyone that the person most likely to have killed Charlie Kirk is a leftist.  Leftists have been enacting organized violence for years now.  The real conspiracy is that conservative groups were tricked into infighting about who did it when the answer was obvious.