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80% Of New UK Payroll Jobs Since 2014 Went To Foreign Nationals, Think Tank Finds

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80% Of New UK Payroll Jobs Since 2014 Went To Foreign Nationals, Think Tank Finds

Just one in five of the roughly 3.7 million jobs added to UK payrolls from 2014 through the end of 2025 went to British nationals. Non-EU nationals took about 2.5 million of them, roughly two-thirds, and EU nationals another 408,000, leaving Britons with 734,000, according to a Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of HMRC data.

The center-right think tank released the figures Tuesday in State of Dependency, a 250-page report launching its Welfare 2030 inquiry. Former Work and Pensions Secretary Sir Iain Duncan Smith chairs the inquiry.

The CSJ’s rounded components add to about 3.64 million against its “approximately 3.7 million” total, so foreign nationals took close to 80% of the growth and Britons about 20%. Britons still hold most of the jobs that exist: HMRC data show 25.6 million Britons among 32 million payrolled workers in December 2025, the Press Association reported.

The shift is recent. Since January 2020, Britons’ payroll jobs fell in nine of the UK’s 12 regions and nations while non-EU nationals’ jobs rose in all 12, the CSJ’s regional table shows. Summed across that table, non-EU nationals gained about 2.1 million payroll jobs, Britons lost about 186,000 and EU nationals lost about 352,000. More than four-fifths of the non-EU gain since 2014 therefore came in the last six years of the twelve.

London shows it most sharply. Non-EU payroll jobs there rose by 465,200 since 2020 while Britons’ fell by 26,500 and EU nationals’ by 171,100. Scotland lost 53,000 British payroll jobs and gained 130,200 non-EU ones; the South East lost 31,700 and gained 284,500. Four sectors account for about two-thirds of the non-EU increase: health and social work (29%), administrative and support services (16%), accommodation and food (12%), and wholesale and retail (10%).

Care shows how the door opened. In the year to March 2023, about 57,700 care and senior care workers received skilled-worker visas, and 99% of sponsored care workers in 2022 came from outside the EU, according to the Migration Observatory. Inflows have since fallen: the ONS put net migration at 171,000 in 2025, from 331,000 a year earlier, with work-related arrivals of non-EU nationals down 47% to about 146,000 after rule changes that included closing the Health and Care route for overseas care workers. The CSJ’s payroll window ends in December 2025, so it captures the hiring wave and only part of the 2024 and 2025 restrictions.

The other half of the CSJ’s case is welfare. It counts 6.7 million people on at least one out-of-work benefit, about one in six working-age adults, and says out-of-work claimants rose by 2.3 million between February 2020 and November 2025. Working-age benefits are forecast to cost £136.1 billion in 2026/27, up about £50 billion in real terms since 2019/20, and the report identifies 3,369 “welfare hotspots” where claimants outnumber half the working-age population, home to nearly 900,000 people.

A companion CSJ estimate puts the foreign-national share at about 1.85 million non-British adults receiving at least one benefit or the state pension in 2025, at roughly £23 billion, including 1.3 million on Universal Credit at £11.9 billion. Those are CSJ calculations from DWP, HMRC and Home Office data and survey rates, not official statistics, and they assume half the adults in mixed-nationality households are foreign nationals. Earlier estimates ran lower: as we reported, one analysis of government data put welfare paid to migrants at £7.6 billion in a single year.

The report’s thesis is that governments swapped one dependency for another. Real GDP grew 26% from 2006 to 2025, but real GDP per person grew only 10%, which the CSJ calls “human quantitative easing”: importing workers to lift headline growth. It adds that official fiscal forecasts run only five years, so they bank the early tax take from migrant workers and miss the welfare costs that arrive later. Duncan Smith said “ministers have repeatedly pulled the easy lever of immigration rather than providing a better deal for left behind communities.”

He has made the jobs argument before. As work and pensions secretary in July 2011, Duncan Smith told a Madrid audience that businesses should hire unemployed Britons, and Channel 4 noted that 87% of the 400,000 jobs created in the coalition’s first year had gone to workers from abroad, a figure unearthed by Labour MP Frank Field. The same caution applies here. The CSJ counts net changes in payrolled jobs by nationality, not who was hired, and a naturalized citizen counts as British. In 2015 the Daily Express claimed 75% of new jobs went to EU migrants; the paper corrected it after economist Jonathan Portes complained and the press regulator IPSO ruled it “significantly misleading,” because the ONS data showed net changes in employment, not people entering new jobs.

The report landed a day after Reform UK’s Nigel Farage pledged to suspend the asylum system for a full parliament, as we reported.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/19/2026 – 02:45

Dutch Minister: Young Locals Can Just Live With Their Parents, Migrants Get Houses First

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Dutch Minister: Young Locals Can Just Live With Their Parents, Migrants Get Houses First

Via Remix News,

Dutch Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O’Sullivan drew sharp criticism this week after defending priority access to scarce social housing for recognized refugees, arguing that many young Dutch first-time home seekers “can still live with their parents.”

In an interview with De Telegraaf, the D66 minister was asked why status holders – asylum seekers granted residence permits – should receive preference for social rental homes while Dutch “starters” face long waiting lists and delayed independence. She responded that “we see that a lot of starters can still, or are allowed to, live with their parents.”

Dutch commentator and activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X that the policy amounted to “systemic racism.”

“And not just the ‘new’ newcomers. A 25-year-old Syrian who came here with his parents years ago jumps the queue for a home when he decides he wants to live on his own. Meaning a 25-year-old white Dutch guy can forget about getting his own place and ends up on waiting lists for 10+ years,” she wrote, adding: “Putting the interests of foreigners above the interests of the native population needs to end.”

Boekholt-O’Sullivan, an Irish-born former lieutenant general in the Dutch Air Force who took office earlier this year, claims that anyone who wants to live in the Netherlands should get a roof but does not address the major housing crisis brought on by mass immigration.

“For me, the fundamental principle is that anyone who is allowed to and wants to live in the Netherlands gets a roof over their head,” she said. She noted that status holders typically leave asylum reception centers and argued that alternatives such as remaining in centers, homelessness, hotels or cruise ships were unacceptable, so priority allocation should continue until other solutions exist.

The remarks landed amid fresh data underscoring migration’s outsized role in the Netherlands’ housing crunch. A report released this week by the Economic Institute for Construction (EIB) found that migration accounted for about 60 percent of additional housing demand between 2015 and 2024. Migrants who arrived in that period occupied roughly 435,000 homes by 2024, out of nearly 700,000 homes added to the stock.

In addition, data shows that migrants occupy 44 percent of the 2.2 million social housing units in the country.

The 44 percent figure of social housing units occupied by first or second-generation immigrants has doubled from 22 percent in 2000, and is forecast to rise to 51 percent by 2030.

A total of 92 percent of Syrian first-generation immigrants reside in social housing. In addition, 90 percent of those born in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Eritrea reside in social housing.

Asylum-related migration contributes disproportionately to lasting demand because status holders remain permanently at high rates, unlike many labor or student migrants who leave within a decade.

Critics said the minister’s comments minimized the burdens on young Dutch adults who have already spent years on waiting lists for social housing or who face high private rents and purchase prices that lock them out of independent living.

Social housing waiting lists in major cities often stretch many years; priority rules for status holders allow some recent arrivals to bypass ordinary queues. Dutch population growth in recent years has been driven almost entirely by net migration, amplifying pressure on an already constrained housing market marked by strict planning rules, nitrogen regulations and slow construction.

The latest debate about Dutch housing policy and mass immigration is only one aspect of the massive burden foreigners have been on Dutch society, which shows that Dutch taxpayers have spent €400 billion on migrants between 1995 and 2019.

The landmark study, entitled “Borderless Welfare State: The Consequences of Immigration on Public Finances,” shows that net costs of immigration to the Dutch public sector over the period 1995-2019 were an astounding €400 billion, averaging €17 billion a year, with a peak of €32 billion in 2016 due to the 2015 refugee crisis.

However, this is far from the total figure. Since 2019, Dutch taxpayers have paid tens of billions more, with no end in sight.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/19/2026 – 02:00

Omar, Obama, And The Danger Of False Identities

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Omar, Obama, And The Danger Of False Identities

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

On Columbus Day, Homeland Security Investigations executed a judicially authorized search warrant of Representative Ilhan Omar’s home. For several months, there have been rumors that she was under investigation for immigration fraud. A few weeks ago, White House Border Czar Tom Homan acknowledged that the congresswoman was the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro says her office is investigating Omar for potential financial crimes. The D.C. magistrate judge who authorized the search of Omar’s residence is a registered Democrat who donated to Hillary Clinton and received professional appointments from other Democrats.

Despite the fact that Democrats wholeheartedly cheered when President Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland authorized FBI agents to use deadly force against the Trump family when they raided his Mar-a-Lago home in 2022 to retrieve evidence of the Department of Justice’s unlawful spying operations against Republican politicians during Barack Obama’s presidency, the people who repeatedly told us for years that “nobody is above the law” now insist that the raid of Omar’s residence is an “abuse of power,” “political retribution,” and the act of “a fascist police state.”

As news of the Omar raid broke, CNN’s Jake Tapper called it “vindictive” and questioned whether it was a “legitimate law enforcement action.” Tapper’s supposedly expert guest – a Democrat lawfare operative – responded to the host’s predetermined judgment of the investigation by calling it, “Partisan. Racism. Xenophobia.”

Bill Kristol – who, amazingly enough, was once regarded as a trusted public intellectual among Republican voters before revealing himself to have been a complete fraud who lied about almost everything he long claimed to believe – posted this urgent request on X: “Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.” When FBI agents were pawing through First Lady Melania Trump’s undergarments back in 2022, Kristol encouraged Americans to be patient and to avoid any rush to judgment – even though the criminal targeting of an American president was unprecedented and shocking.

MS NOW’s “Justice and Intel Reporter,” Ken Dilanian pointed out that most immigrants’ naturalization paperwork contains “fudged facts” – essentially arguing that since many foreigners lie to authorities, Omar shouldn’t be singled out and prosecuted for committing immigration fraud. This is a rather unjust double standard for a “justice” reporter to articulate given that Americans who “fudge facts” on legal documents are regularly prosecuted for the crimes of misrepresentation, forgery, and fraud.

Unless and until Representative Omar is actually indicted, the public will have to wait to read about the particular facts of her case. It is worth noting, however, that numerous allegations have swirled around the congresswoman for years. Several of her Democrat primary opponents alleged that she had committed immigration fraud on behalf of herself and other members of her family. Public investigations suggest that she falsified her birthdate in order to obtain naturalized citizenship. There have been reports that she married her biological brother as part of a fraudulent scheme to provide him American citizenship. A number of historians claim that Omar’s father “misrepresented himself as a refugee” and was instead a military commander in a Somali dictatorship responsible for several hundred thousand murders. The congresswoman insists that her birth records were destroyed during Somalia’s civil war (a bloody conflict during which her father may have committed crimes against humanity).

Perhaps we will learn whether these allegations have merit in the months ahead. What I do know is that this inquiry is long overdue. The appearance of impropriety has followed Representative Omar even before she joined Congress in 2019. Allegations of immigration fraud have been loud – including the unsavory claim that she married her brother – yet neither congressional leaders nor federal officials have been inclined to investigate the matter more fully until now. The lack of curiosity and continued silence from authorities have been impossible for the American people to ignore.

Two-tiered justice in the United States has been with us for quite some time. Democrat lawfare drove President Nixon from the White House. President Bill Clinton targeted Christians and gun-owners and reoriented intelligence agencies away from communist organizations that were monitored during the Cold War and toward “right-wing” groups that had never posed a national security threat.

When President Obama took the reins of the federal government, he combined Clinton’s targeting of conservatives with President Bush’s new domestic surveillance system authorized by the USA PATRIOT Act and maliciously – yet ironically – redefined American patriots as “potential domestic terrorists.” Over the course of the Obama and Biden presidencies, Christians, conservatives, libertarians, and Republican voters have been investigated for imaginary “crimes” at the behest of Democrat partisans within the federal government.

When a woman from Somalia can come to the United States and join Congress with less scrutiny than a random American Christian receives for praying outside an abortion clinic or carrying a firearm, the entire government – especially the criminal justice system – loses credibility, if not legitimacy.

Congresswoman Omar is certainly not the first member of the federal government to have been accused of committing identity fraud. Although the corporate “news” oligarchy and the political Establishment did their best to cover up the story, there were serious allegations against Barack Obama, including claims that he was not born an American citizen and was therefore ineligible to become president of the United States. As the propaganda press and the Democrat Party are doing today with regard to claims of immigration fraud against Omar, those institutions have told the American people for two decades that doubting the authenticity of Obama’s Hawaiian birth certificate is an act of “racism” and “white supremacy.”

However, as investigative researcher “Sundance” over at The Conservative Treehouse has long argued, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence suggesting that former CIA Director John Brennan conspired with others to scrub records from federal systems that showed Obama is not exactly who he claims to be.

Back in 2008, Brennan was an intelligence adviser to presidential candidate Obama and the CEO of an intelligence-related consulting group called The Analysis Corporation. That firm was implicated in a breach of the State Department’s passport office, when one of Brennan’s contract employees accessed the records of Obama, as well as those of Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Brennan’s company later released this statement: “This individual’s actions were taken without the knowledge or direction of anyone at The Analysis Corp. and are wholly inconsistent with our professional and ethical standards.”

The State Department’s inspector general later concluded that the hacker specifically sought Obama’s passport file and accessed the Clinton and McCain files to create confusion for investigators. What may have been deleted from Obama’s files is unknown. At the time of the incident, the Obama campaign denounced the “outrageous breach of security and privacy, even from an Administration that has shown little regard for either over the last eight years.” Obama appointed Brennan director of the CIA five years later.

Obama also told reporters that any investigation “should be done in conjunction with those congressional committees that have oversight so it’s not simply an internal matter.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden had oversight over the Foreign Service and passport office and was in charge of the investigation into the breach of Obama’s records. Obama chose Biden as his vice presidential running mate.

Later, State Department employee Lt. Quarles Harris, Jr. – who apparently penetrated the database and likely scrubbed Obama’s records – was found dead. He had been shot twice in the head (described as “execution style“), but his death was ruled a “suicide.” Lt. Harris was cooperating with investigators concerning the State Department breach at the time of his death. “Sundance” implicates John Brennan in both Harris’s death and the later death of investigative journalist Michael Hastings.

Barack Obama successfully hid his identity. Perhaps Ilhan Omar has John Brennan on retainer, too. We’ll see.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 23:30

Putin Proposes Summit With Trump And Xi To Negotiate End Of Ukraine War; Zelensky Not Invited

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Putin Proposes Summit With Trump And Xi To Negotiate End Of Ukraine War; Zelensky Not Invited

Amid an escalating war that appears to get farther from any hope of a ceasefire, let alone peace, late on Sunday the WSJ reported that Vladimir Putin has proposed that he, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next month to talk about Ukraine in an attempt to negotiate an end to the four-year conflict that would favor Moscow.

Citing people familiar with the discussions, the WSJ notes that the plan represents an effort by Putin to capitalize on warming ties between Trump and the Russian leader that have alarmed Ukraine and its allies in Washington and Europe. Such a summit – one notably without the involvement of Zelensky who appears to have terminally alienated Trump in recent days – would be “unprecedented and send alarm bells ringing in European capitals and beyond.”

According to a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter, Putin floated the idea in an Oct. 9 phone call with Trump. That conversation also produced a deal for the U.S. to buy Russian diesel fuel and facilitate its sale on the global market. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. 

“There is no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility of such a meeting taking place,” he told The Wall Street Journal.

A senior US official said that while Trump hadn’t agreed to such a summit, he said that the president could be receptive to the idea, given his desire to fulfill a campaign promise to settle the war. Trump had said it would be finished on “day one” of his new term, but he is now approaching nearly two years in office. 

The Kremlin has suggested holding the trilateral dialogue on the sidelines of the coming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the people familiar with discussions said. That gathering takes place on Nov. 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, the southern Chinese tech hub. 

A potential three-way dialogue on Chinese soil would mark a big step for Xi in his efforts to elevate China’s role as a diplomatic power broker, said analysts who study China. Russian officials proposed the idea to Beijing through diplomatic channels and the Chinese side has indicated it wouldn’t object if Trump is on board.

“China wants to be seen as the pivot of the great powers, and potentially as a mediator between the U.S. and Russia,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.

While Putin had unsuccessfully proposed a trilateral summit to both Trump and Xi on previous occasions, this time, however, it comes during a reversal of Moscow’s fortunes with Washington. 

Trump just notched a deal with Putin to get Russian diesel in a bid to lower fuel prices that have slowed the American economy and hurt Republican prospects ahead of the midterm elections. On Friday, Trump halted implementation of sanctions that were to be imposed on Russia under a bipartisan bill he signed last month, drawing criticism from lawmakers, including some of his allies.

The senior White House official said Trump made the decisions after seeing few other good options to lower prices.

At a time when Diesel prices are soaring, in part due to limited Russian exports amid a constant drone campaign waged by Ukraine against its refineries, Trump has shown renewed frustration with Zelensky, saying the Ukrainian leader must stop strikes on Russian refineries and suggesting that the country needs a new president. U.S.-led efforts to broker an end to the war, meanwhile, have been largely stalled.

In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump took aim at Zelensky, following Ukraine’s strike on an oil terminal in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg earlier in the day. He accused the Ukrainian leader of targeting Russian diesel refineries and said he “doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did.” The president said he was holding off on imposing sanctions because he didn’t want to drive Russia away from the bargaining table. “I WANT THIS WAR END!” he wrote. 

According to the WSJ, Moscow sees a potential trilateral dialogue as a way of cementing Russia’s membership in a club of great global powers, a status Putin has sought since he entered the Kremlin in 2000. The format also excludes from the picture Europe, which the Kremlin sees as its main obstacle to clinching victory in Ukraine. 

The former Russian intelligence officer who was the WSJ source, said Putin has broad, if unrealistic, ambitions for the trilateral format as a second Yalta summit, which would divide up the globe into spheres of influence. 

Even if Xi and Trump are unlikely to agree to that, the image of the American, Russian and Chinese leaders negotiating the fate of one nation would be a powerful signal. In Taipei, it could reinforce fears that Taiwan’s own future might be one day bargained over in a similar forum, particularly as Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the self-governing democratic island under its control.

That said, a summit isn’t without risk for Xi. Chinese officials have concerns about allowing a geopolitical side show to overshadow their designs to use APEC as a showcase of China’s role in the region, said some of the people close to the discussions.

Xi is attempting to walk a fine line between continuing his support for Putin and maintaining China’s economic ties with Europe, the people said. A trilateral meeting like this could risk drawing China more directly into the Ukraine conflict and provoke a backlash from European capitals already wary of Beijing’s tilt toward Moscow. Although, with most European capitals desperate to either export or import from China, it isn’t clear what if anything that can do to express their “outrage.”

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 22:45

Trump Issues Full-Throated Endorsement Of Netanyahu Ahead Of Tough Election

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Trump Issues Full-Throated Endorsement Of Netanyahu Ahead Of Tough Election

In what should come as no big surprise at all, President Trump has issued a whole-hearted endorsement for Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday as next Israeli prime minister.

Axios points out, “This is the first time in the history of the U.S.–Israel relations that a U.S. president explicitly and publicly endorsed a candidate in the Israeli elections.“

Getty Images

There’s a mere nine days to go before the country’s Oct.27 elections, and domestically Netanyahu has long been accused of prolonging and escalating conflicts in order to sell himself as the necessary ‘wartime president’.

Axios further observes that Trump’s endorsement was ‘needed’ as most polls show Netanyahu’s coalition “falling short of the 61 seats needed to form a government.“

Trump himself on Truth Social touted Bibi as “a Great Warrior Prime Minister” and a “great partner” in the war against Iran.

“If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work [in Iran] ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so,” Trump wrote.

The post is full of lavish praise about how Netanyahu ‘thrives’ under pressure and that most “normal men and women” would in the same situations “would have wilted under pressure.“

Political opponents are lambasting inappropriate ‘foreign intervention’ while Netanyahu is really soaking in and making the most of Trump’s full explicit backing:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Israel could face a “hostile” US president in two years, emphasizing the need to capitalize on the time remaining in US President Donald Trump’s term.

“There is a window of another two years with President Trump, and one of the questions in these elections is who will work with Trump? Who will complete the remaining work?” Netanyahu said.

The full post:

Early on, after the US launched Operation Epic Fury, a slew of top admin officials including Marco Rubio admitted that the war is happening to defend Israel from the Iranian threat, and focused on preventing Tehran from getting nuclear weapons.

The White House has since tried to downplay it, but this remains the publicly articulated rationale among admin legal and official memos defending the ‘legal justification’ of the war. A State Department publication issued on April 21 of this year stated firmly: “As the United States has explained in multiple letters to the U.N. Security Council, including most recently on March 10, the United States is engaged in this conflict at the request of and in the collective self-defense of its Israeli ally, as well as in the exercise of the United States’ own inherent right of self-defense.”

At this point Trump might need Netanyahu for whatever next rounds of bombing break out, but more importantly Bibi needs Trump. Iranian leaders have warned that if the Islamic Republic comes under direct bombing raids again, Israel would in turn likely face Iran’s ballistic missiles once again.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 22:35

Pentagon Plans To Withhold Report on Minab School Massacre Past Midterms

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Pentagon Plans To Withhold Report on Minab School Massacre Past Midterms

Authored by Dave DeCamp via Antiwar.com,

Bloomberg reported on Thursday that top Pentagon officials have expressed that they will withhold the release of an internal report on the US bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab, southern Iran, which massacred at least 120 children, through the midterm elections.

According to an earlier Bloomberg investigation into the attack, within hours of the strikes, Pentagon personnel were aware that the US was responsible, but the Trump administration has still not admitted to carrying out the attack.

The new Bloomberg report said that advisors to US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have conveyed to other Pentagon personnel that the report on the massacre, which found flawed intelligence, outdated imagery, and an overreliance on AI contributed to the attack, will not be shared with the public before the November 3 elections.

Officials said the investigation has been all but complete for several months.

The exact toll in the bombing varies, with Bloomberg putting the number of children killed at 123, while the general prosecutor in Minab said in early April that the final death toll was 156, including 120 students – 73 boys, 47 girls – 26 female teachers, the unborn child of a pregnant teacher, seven parents, a school bus driver, and a technician at a nearby clinic.

Drop Site News recently published an extensive report on the massacre from the perspective of the parents of the people who experienced it, including parents and relatives of children who were killed, children who survived, rescue workers, and teachers.

The massacre is one of the worst US war crimes since the Vietnam War, and it came after Hegseth hollowed out mechanisms meant to reduce civilian harm.

Last month, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced a resolution to impeach Hegseth that included an article about how the Pentagon chief ignored US laws meant to minimize civilian harm and tied it to the bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School.

“The elementary school was struck after Secretary Hegseth sought to repeal congressionally mandated civilian-protection requirements, dismantled the Department’s civilian-harm mitigation infrastructure, removed the senior-most Judge Advocates General responsible for independent legal oversight, stripped civilian protection from the National Defense Strategy, and publicly denigrated legal restraints on military force as obstacles to ‘maximum lethality,'” the resolution reads.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 22:10

Egypt Approves Troop Deployment In Support Of Saudi Arabia

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Egypt Approves Troop Deployment In Support Of Saudi Arabia

Via The Cradle

Egypt announced on Sunday that it has approved the deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia on a “defensive mission” to help the kingdom protect itself from the retaliatory military operations carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF).

The Egyptian House of Representatives held “an emergency session to discuss the President of the Republic and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces’ decision to send military forces to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on a defensive mission,” said MP Mostafa Bakry.

Source: Egyptian Presidency

“The National Defense Council, chaired by the president, concluded its meeting and approved the deployment of the forces and the mission assigned to them,” he added. 

He said that “Egypt has never abandoned its pan-Arab role in protecting Arab national security. For us, Saudi Arabia is part of Egypt’s own national security, and any threat to its security and stability is a threat to us.”

On Saturday, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi called for the authorization of defensive measures in support of Saudi Arabia, which has been waging a brutal war and blockade against Yemen for over a decade.

“Egypt is ready to take any measure Saudi Arabia requests to defend its security and sovereignty,“ the Egyptian president said. 

The news follows the reported activation of the Mecca Defense Pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye.

Pakistani jets have reportedly been striking Yemen, yet Islamabad denied this. Thousands of Pakistani troops are in the kingdom, and Turkiye is also said to be making significant equipment and personnel deployments that are being used against Yemen.

The Ansarallah-led YAF announced it shot down a Saudi attack helicopter in a statement on Sunday, releasing footage of the operation.

The footage shows “the targeting and downing of a Saudi AH-6i attack helicopter with an indigenously manufactured surface-to-air missile while it was carrying out hostile activities off the coast of Najran.” The Saudi-led coalition confirmed that the whole crew was killed.

Earlier, Saudi airstrikes hit Hodeidah in western Yemen. According to the YAF, over 2,500 Saudi attacks have been launched against Yemen since the kingdom’s escalation against the country in July.

The Saudi escalation has killed dozens of civilians. In response, Saudi Arabia’s airports, military bases, and energy sites have been under heavy missile and drone fire from the YAF.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 21:20

“They Will All Go To Jail”: Trump Threatens California Election Officials If They Let Non-Citizens Vote

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“They Will All Go To Jail”: Trump Threatens California Election Officials If They Let Non-Citizens Vote

On Friday President Donald Trump warned California election officials that they will go to prison if they count mail-in ballots from about 20,000 people who have been identified as possible noncitizens by the federal government, intensifying the legal dispute with the state mere weeks before the midterm elections.

FILE – Ballots are sorted the day after California’s primary election at the LA County Ballot Processing Center, June 3, 2026, in City of Industry, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)

California’s voter registration system relies on applicants attesting to their own citizenship, and county officials argued that the system obligates them to count ballots from registered voters. The Trump administration disagrees.

“They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Oct. 16. He attached a copy of a Justice Department letter to Los Angeles County that promised “significant” consequences for “facilitating or ignoring” noncitizens voting in a federal election.

“The legal consequences for either facilitating or ignoring a federal crime are significant,” the letter reads. “Noncitizen voting in a federal election is a federal crime-and knowingly facilitating such conduct is equally unlawful. Under 18 U.S.C. § 611(a), noncitizens are prohibited from voting in any election involving federal offices.”

The letter continued:

Under 18 U.S.C. § 2, anyone who aids, abets, counsels, induces, or procures the commission of a federal offense is equally liable. If persons knowingly tabulate ballots cast by individuals identified by federal agencies as noncitizens, they risk becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime. Your assertion that ballots must be counted simply because California’s registration system relies on self-attestation does not relieve election officials of their obligations under federal law when they are on actual notice of noncitizen voting. Nor can state procedures supersede federal criminal statutes.

Trump’s post followed a week of escalating federal action. Earlier in the week, the DOJ mailed California election officials a USB drive containing voter roll citizenship data, then sent a separate letter with the password needed to open it. According to a report from The Hill, the state had 48 hours to compare 20,000 names that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) identified as non-U.S. citizens against its own voter rolls.

On Thursday, the DOJ sued California. “If California was unable to independently confirm the citizenship of people on that list, the Federal Government asked that California set aside ballots received from them until the person’s citizenship was confirmed,” the lawsuit reads.

Under this approach, the state would hold the ballots in question until officials verified the voters’ citizenship. The lawsuit does not ask California to discard the ballots outright.

Earlier this year, Trump said California and three other states together had 250,000 noncitizens on their voter rolls. His opponents dispute that number.

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom called the lawsuit a “sad, desperate attempt by Trump to use his politicized Justice Department to try to suppress California voters just three weeks before Election Day.”

“The courts have made clear that the federal government has no role in how a state carries out its election process, and now, in the middle of Californians voting, they have asked local officials – who do a damn good job defending democracy – to violate federal law,” Newsom said, but did not specify which federal law he claims the DOJ’s request would require local officials to break.

Outside groups have also moved against the administration. In September, the UCLA Voting Rights Project sued the DOJ and DHS, challenging the method the administration used to count noncitizens registered to vote. The group plans to seek a temporary restraining order if the administration does not drop its plans for a criminal crackdown on state officials.

“Your clients’ actions in compiling the list violates established law; your efforts to employ this list to systematically purge voters, less than a month before the election, further violates the National Voter Registration Act, among other laws,” attorneys for the group claimed in their latest letter to the DOJ.

***

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 20:55

Saudi Arabia At The Breaking Point

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Saudi Arabia At The Breaking Point

Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar 21,

For most of this war, Saudi Arabia has been the shock absorber of the world oil market. When Hormuz closed, Riyadh pushed crude west through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea and kept at least part of its exports moving. That bypass is now under attack. Ansar Allah has seized islands at the mouth of the Red Sea, declared a “maritime ban” on Saudi shipping and claimed strikes on Saudi airports, and in September drones knocked the East-West pipeline largely out of service. Riyadh blamed that strike on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. On October 4 a pumping station at Khurais, east of Riyadh, was hit for the first time and the pipeline stopped again.

Karl Miller, whose earlier assessment of the global fuel emergency I have drawn on before, has just completed a new analysis of what this means for Saudi Arabia and for the world. His conclusion is stark: the Gulf’s energy system will take far longer and cost far more to rebuild than anyone in Washington is admitting, and Saudi Arabia can no longer be counted on to cover the gap. Here are his key findings.

1. The bypass is the weak point

Miller’s starting point is that a pipeline is not a pipe. It is a connected system of pumping stations, power supplies, controls, storage tanks and loading berths, and it is only as strong as its weakest link. The September damage to the East-West pumping stations, the October interruption at Khurais, a fire at the Riyadh energy complex and the disruption of Saudi aviation all hit that system at different points. The pipeline has been partly restored, but Miller warns that permanent equipment losses remain unresolved. Yanbu can be shut down without a single bomb hitting the port: if crude stops arriving, tankers stop loading.

He also cautions against counting damaged stations as if each represented a fixed share of lost capacity. What matters is throughput, and he measures it against a benchmark of 5.8 million barrels a day through the corridor. A complete interruption for seven days would put 40.6 million barrels of movement at risk; for 30 days, 174 million. He stresses that this is a stress calculation, not a claim that the line is fully shut.

2. The rebuild now runs to 2033–2036

In his previous paper Miller set a five-year horizon for rebuilding the damaged Gulf energy complex. He has now extended it to seven to ten years for the most severely damaged, interconnected systems, meaning recovery between roughly October 2033 and October 2036. Partial output will return sooner, but full, reliable operation will not.

The reason is equipment. Large compressors, turbines, high-voltage transformers, specialized pressure vessels and integrated control systems are custom-built and cannot be pulled from a warehouse. His critical path for replacing such a package is 84 months: a year to define the damage and fund the design, three years to procure and manufacture, two years to deliver and install, and a year to commission and stabilize. Insecure sites, financing gaps, factory queues and repeated attacks could add up to three more years. As he puts it, money can reserve a manufacturing slot, but it cannot compress every stage of engineering and fabrication.

3. A bill of $550 billion to $2.28 trillion

Miller models the reconstruction of the wider Gulf energy system, Saudi Arabia included, in three scenarios. He is explicit that these are funding envelopes built on stated assumptions, not audited damage estimates and not a Saudi-only bill.

  Controlled Central Severe
Base reconstruction capital $400 bn $800 bn $1,400 bn
Execution uplift (security, delays, escalation) $100 bn $280 bn $630 bn
Finance and startup liquidity $50 bn $120 bn $250 bn
Total funding envelope $550 bn $1.20 trn $2.28 trn

Source: Karl W. Miller, Saudi Arabia: The Breaking Point (12 October 2026). Covers the broader Gulf reconstruction portfolio.

In the central case, $180 billion must be committed in the first two years alone, rising to $540 billion in years three to five. Over seven years that averages more than $170 billion a year. And every Gulf state will be competing for the same manufacturers, engineering firms, fabrication yards and specialist crews. A transformer slot taken by Kuwait or Qatar is one that Saudi Arabia does not get.

4. Delay is expensive

Miller puts numbers on what waiting costs. A three-year delay on the central program could add $76 billion to $125 billion in cost escalation and another $42 billion to $90 billion in financing charges. Meanwhile the fuel must still be bought somewhere: each year that 1 million barrels a day of fuel supply stays offline means 365 million barrels to replace, about $55 billion at his illustrative price of $150 a barrel. Leaving his full 3 million barrel-a-day gap unrepaired for three more years implies nearly $500 billion in replacement purchases.

5. The diesel gap gets wider

Miller’s baseline remains a minimum global shortfall of 3 million barrels a day of diesel and jet fuel. The Saudi attacks threaten to push it higher. If disruption leaves 1 million barrels a day of crude unable to reach working refineries, the loss of diesel and jet fuel is roughly 300,000 to 450,000 barrels a day. An additional net loss of 500,000 barrels a day would raise his baseline to 3.5 million, an increase of one-sixth, adding 15 million barrels of shortfall every month.

He is careful not to double count: lost crude, the refinery output it would have produced and the missed export cargo may all be the same barrels. But the direction is clear. Saudi Arabia was the Gulf’s main source of relief. If its bypass is unreliable, the global deficit grows.

6. America cannot fill the hole

Miller’s test of American capacity is sobering. Over the four weeks to October 2, US refineries produced about 5.17 million barrels a day of distillate, exported 1.56 million and used 3.77 million at home. Replacing a 3 million barrel-a-day gap from the United States alone would require 58% more distillate output than American refineries produce today. US production is only about 150,000 barrels a day higher than a year ago; the global gap is nearly 20 times that. Promising more exports does not create more fuel. It simply moves the shortage from one buyer to another and drains American inventories.

7. Food, freight and flights

The fuel crisis is already reaching the real economy. Cereal prices are 17.2% higher than a year ago. Farmers need diesel before the harvest pays, truckers before their invoices are settled, and refrigeration before food reaches the shelf. Airlines need certified jet fuel at the airports they serve, and diesel cannot substitute for it. Miller’s warning is that the weakest buyers, countries short of foreign exchange and credit, will not just pay more. They will be priced out entirely.

My take

Miller’s assessment confirms what I have been arguing for months: the energy damage from this war is not a temporary price spike that ends when a ceasefire is signed. Reopening a shipping lane does not rebuild a refinery. Saudi Arabia, which only months ago was the world’s insurance policy, is now itself a source of risk, and its economy shows it: Saudi oil activity fell by a quarter in the second quarter and GDP shrank 4.8%. The rebuilding of the Gulf will be measured in years and trillions of dollars, and the world will be short of diesel for much of that time.

That should be the frame for every promise coming out of Washington, whether it is Russian diesel, export bans or claims that prices are about to fall. As Miller concludes, recovery will be proven by fuel actually delivered, not by repairs announced or by a lower headline price.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 20:10

X Gets “Stronger” As Threads And Bluesky Quarantine The “Worst People On The Internet”

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X Gets “Stronger” As Threads And Bluesky Quarantine The “Worst People On The Internet”

Meta Platforms’ Threads and rival Bluesky have devolved into far-left echo chambers that some describe as platforms for the clinically insane, where intelligent conversations are severely lacking and discussions become shouting matches among those suffering from “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and infected by the woke mind virus.

That concentration of left-wing lunatics on Threads and Bluesky may be strengthening X’s competitive position, making it more attractive to professional users and youngsters seeking competing viewpoints and substantive conversations across the political spectrum and about current trends in the real world. 

Nikita Bier, who most recently led X’s product development, took to X over the weekend to explain that “Threads was an existential risk to X” last year, but that the threat has largely dissipated.

Bier explains: 

Last year I thought Threads was an existential risk to X.

When Meta puts its full weight behind something, by injecting the app into Instagram, it’s DEFCON 5:

You have to squeeze out every last drop of growth from all available surfaces to save the app.

However, I started to realize that the opposite was happening:

It was strengthening X.

If you look at any announcement by Zuck, you will see the most rude & toxic comments on the internet.

But when he makes those same announcements on X, people are thrilled about how he’s pushing humanity forward. X is a place where people are excited about the future, so it’s no surprise he and his top lieutenants are using it more than their own app.

Threads, and Bluesky, have effectively quarantined some of the worst people on the internet.

And so I had an epiphany: those apps are X’s anti-abuse systems.

Bier’s revelation comes one week after he cited what appears to be internal X data that shows Bluesky users have been “coming back to X in droves the last few weeks.” 

Elon Musk responded to our note on this development, confirming it as “true.” 

Let’s take a stroll down memory lane and remind readers that PR firms and corporate media ran an information campaign centered around the key phrase “Twitter Killer” when Bluesky really gained traction in 2023. 

However, that information operation gained limited traction. 

X has challenged globalist corporate media’s role as the primary gatekeeper of information, shifting influence toward the accounts and networks users choose to follow. Its appeal extends to discussions, where competing voices across the political spectrum can have civilized conversations and challenge prevailing narratives. Threads and Bluesky have struggled to replicate X’s ecosystem, as it has merely become a ‘safe space’ for left-wing extremism. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 – 18:00