A mixed bag from CPI if we are completely honest with a little for everybody – headline down but core still super-high; goods prices reaccelerating; and SuperCore accelerating – but overall, the market is seeing doves fly.

Rate-hike odds tumbled for July (and June is now almost guaranteed a pause)…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks jumped, led by the manic Nasdaq of course (though the move is less than expected)…

Treasury yields are down across the curve with the short-0end outperforming…

Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir had a quick take:

Bonds seem happy with headline dropping to 4% annual rate, but monthly at 0.4% for ex food and energy isn’t great (3rd month in a row, so staying close to 5% annualized on any run rate) and came in 5.3%.

Seasonal adjustments should have played a big role on headline as “normally” gas prices go up into summer driving season and we haven’t seen that.

Plus the shelter inflation – shelter is somewhat tame, but reflects price action from last year not current trends where sites like Zillow show rents going higher again.

I’d fade the rally in treasuries on back of this number.

The dollar is down on the dovish print…

Gold and crypto both dropped on the headline print, but quickly reversed those losses. Oil is extending gains with WTI back above $69…

For now, it’s stocks that love this the most… as always, but 0-DTE traders are fading the gains…

Do you feel lucky into tomorrow’s ‘hawkish pause’?

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The S&P 500 has risen to a new cycle high, edging ever closer to its record level.

Complacency seems to be taking hold of market participants because the latest leg up has been driven entirely by multiple expansion.

According to Bloomberg, the Price to Earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has erupted back to 19.2x, almost a 10% increase in valuation with no discernible improvement in earnings or margins. The latest round of revisions shows consensus estimating a -0.28% growth in earnings for this year.

Consumer confidence is back at 2022 lows and the economic surprise index is also weakening.

What are investors betting on?

Good old quantitative easing to return.

When one looks at the consensus estimates for EPS growth in the S&P 500 it looks like a textbook case of massaging estimates. Expectations of earnings growth have plummeted from +4% to -0.28% in a few months, and energy conglomerates continue to be the darlings of sell-side recommendations despite a slump of 30% in their profit expectations. Meanwhile, consensus is playing its old classic trick: Pump next year estimates. This year EPS growth for the S&P 500 is negative but the following year, analysts expect a robust +10.4% growth and the following year an 8.91% increase. This way, analysts can tell their clients that yes, this year profits will be poor but rising valuations are justified by the strong growth of the next two years… which is likely to be revised down as rapidly as 2023 earnings were.

Massaging consensus estimates is nothing new. According to Bloomberg, the average downgrade of one-year estimates from January to December is 20% in the past decade. Multiple expansion was justified by elevated money supply growth and massive buybacks, which are themselves a second derivative of easy money. In the past, weak earnings growth or declining consensus expectations were tolerated because the monetary laughing gas disguised the accumulation of risk.

Why are investors accepting another period of aggressive multiple expansion in the middle of an alleged monetary policy normalization? You guessed it. Investors now know that central banks will turn on the printing machine at the slightest problem.

Global money supply reached a peak in March 2022 of 105 trillion US dollars according to Bloomberg. It was supposed to fall rapidly to 95 trillion, with central banks unwinding their balance sheet by at least 5 trillion. It has not happened. Global money supply continues above 101 trillion and rose significantly with the banking crisis.

Investors are right to see that central bank policies will remain massively accommodative, and the impact of rate hikes has been limited, providing more an opportunity to increase risk than to reduce it. However, market participants may be too optimistic expecting massive multiple expansion to drive markets.

Inflation remains elevated, and being accommodative is significantly different from implementing quantitative easing. Central banks are injecting liquidity in a banking crisis, but they are not driving the valuation bubble further as easily as some expect.

• First, fundamentals are not helping. Earnings and margin estimates require further cuts to be aligned with the macroeconomic reality.

• Second, inflation may be declining but it is mostly due to the base effect and accumulated consumer prices remain elevated, with core CPI stubbornly higher than what commodities and money supply would dictate. This means that central banks are more likely to surprise with more rate hikes than with the expected cuts into the end of 2023.

• Third, investor positioning is falsely bearish. If you read any of the investment bank surveys, it would seem that clients are very cautious and prudent. However, real positioning of institutional funds is extremely concentrated on cyclicals and rising duration bets, net long exposure of Hedge Funds is almost at three-year highs according to HSBC, and the Fear and Greed Index published by CNN is in Greed territory. No, investors are not bearish.

• Fourth, and more important: There is a wall of state debt that will flood markets in the next two years. The U.S. alone will likely increase net financing requirements by almost two trillion US dollars, and the eurozone is flooding the market with the gigantic funding of the atrocious Next Generation EU. All that public paper will be refinanced and means less liquidity in markets.

More state debt financed by markets, added to an overly optimistic positioning is a dangerous combination when core inflation remains high.

Markets may remain optimistic for a while, but a correction of the excessively optimistic expectations built in stocks is almost inevitable.

The Biden administration is going after China’s ability to train pilots abroad, particularly while utilizing NATO or Western resources. On Monday the Biden administration added 43 entities to an export control list involved in training programs for Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) pilots.

Front and center on the list is Frontier Services Group Ltd, which is the Hong Kong-based security and aviation company founded and led until April 2021 by Erik Prince, also the founder of the now defunct and infamous Blackwater private security firm. 

Reuters reviews that the new listings “include Frontier Services Group sites in China, Kenya, Laos and the United Arab Emirates; TFASA units in South Africa, China, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom; and AVIC entities in China and South Africa.”

The US Bureau of Industry and Security said of its export control list that the entities are being targeted as they have been training PLA pilots using “Western and NATO sources.” These have been deemed activities which “threaten national security.”

Further, according to Reuters, some of the companies have hired elite pilots from the UK to teach Chinese military pilots.

“The Test Flying Academy of South Africa, a flight school under scrutiny by authorities in Britain for recruiting British ex-military pilots to train Chinese military fliers, was also added to the U.S. Commerce Department’s Entity List,” per the report.

The listed companies are now blocked from receiving US exports for any activities seen as running counter to American interests.

Reuters also notes of the export control list that “Thirty-one Chinese entities in total were added to the list, some for acquiring U.S.-origin items in support of China’s military modernization, such as hypersonic weapons development.”

Via SpotGamma,

Quad Witching and the JPM Collar roll are right around the corner, one Friday after the next.

The Gamma Index™ is very high (about 3) with a theoretical max of 4.

Our chart here shows how much gamma is scheduled to expire on June’s Quad Witching next Friday (June 16).

On the aggregate, SPX options are dominantly focused on June, which is on track to being the large buildup and release of market gamma until Quad Witching later on in December. Part of what makes this Quad Witching is that SPY gamma is guaranteed to focus mostly on that same June monthly expiration.

The market has been following the expected patterns of monthly gamma contraction/expansion. If that continues, then market gamma would remain strong until next Monday.

However, given how cheap long puts are right now, it is important to be aware that this morning is CPI (at 8:30am EST). This invites a potentially unprecedented exogenous shock.

As an additional point for the sake of situational awareness, this is one of the four months a year where the VIX expiration comes the Wednesday after Quad Witching (rather than the Wednesday before).

Following that will be the major JPM Collar [JHEQX] roll on June 30, with that short call strike on 4320.

From Friday, the chart below shows how the market pinned right on top of our Call Wall after briefly testing both it and the JHEQX short call.

That [SPX 4320 / ESM 4327] level which the market reacted to as overhead resistance, the JHEQX short call, actually widened the surface of its pin to 4325 via copycats shadowing these levels.

This is shown on our global view of the topology of SPX gamma across all option chains:

Additionally, the put/call ratio aggregate across all equities has been in noticeable decline over the past few months. This is pictured here in white versus the OI-based put/call ratio in teal.

One piece of information that this tells us is that calls have been becoming increasingly more attractive as a tactical tool.

However, the best view of what the market is pricing is through the implied probability plot, shown below:

As you can see the traders largely anticipates this ~4,300 pin before FOMC. There is then a big gap down, or flattening of the probability post-FOMC, as traders look for a wider range of SPX prices. In general it seems there are very low odds being priced of an SPX break of ~4,250 – 4,400 before July 1.

What’s really interesting, though, is that the market prices a higher probability of lower SPX prices from FOMC out into the final week of June, as highlighted by expirations in the purple box.

Then, the distribution shifts higher into month end, which is when the JPM collar rolls.

What’s ultimately being here reflected in this calculation is a shift, or distortion of options prices due to the large open interest at the 6/30 JPM call collar position (4,320). It leaves a footprint.

Simply put, it appears the market is pricing in a path… first lower, and then up into the JPM collar strike of 4,320 into June 30th expiration.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Nigel Farage has spoken to a number of individuals in Boris Johnson’s close circle about a possible political alliance with the former U.K. prime minister in a bid to shake up the Westminster status quo and defend the legacy of Brexit.

Speaking to GB News on Sunday, the former political leader turned conservative commentator described a “very big opening” now emerging in British politics. Farage claimed “the gap between Westminster and the country is now bigger than it was 10 years ago” when his U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) mounted electoral pressure on a Conservative party led by David Cameron.

“I think the sense of broken Britain, the sense the health service doesn’t work anymore, that people’s kids and grandkids can’t even get onto the housing ladder. I think these things are very real. So, there’s an enormous opportunity there,” he told the broadcaster.

The gap between Westminster and the country is now even bigger than it was 10 years ago. We must defend the Brexit legacy. pic.twitter.com/vwZRNZov6j

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) June 11, 2023

Asked directly about a potential partnership with Boris Johnson, Farage said: “I disagree with Boris Johnson fundamentally on many of his metro, liberal views. But if anyone can turn on a sixpence and say they now believe in something completely different, it’s Boris Johnson.”

He explained that despite their political differences, “on the biggest constitutional question we will face in our lifetimes, namely Brexit, Boris was on the same side as myself and others.”

Farage revealed he had heard murmurs of discontent from “major conservative donors and supporters” who have vowed “never to support the (Conservative) party again.” He said that Boris Johnson’s media presence and personality could be hugely effective at galvanizing huge swathes of a disenchanted electorate whose only options at the next election are the beleaguered governing Conservatives or the Labour party, two parties Farage believes are one and the same.

“He’s very good at dominating news. He does have personality. He does make people smile. And if he wants to defend his Brexit legacy, well I want to defend my Brexit legacy, too,” Farage told viewers.

“So would there be a possibility of a new coming together on the center-right? It would be Boris Johnson, there would be other MPs that would join in with this as well,” he hinted.

Asked whether conversations had taken place between himself and Johnson regarding such a project, Farage replied: “Not with him directly, no. But I have discussed it with people very close to him, and around him.”

Farage has been a perennial thorn in the side of the Conservative party, willingly adopting the role of chief disruptor on the British right. He has sought to keep the Tory party — which has had a tendency this century to roam towards a centrist, liberal agenda when unchallenged — in check via his leadership of UKIP, which was instrumental in delivering the Brexit referendum, and later on the pop-up Brexit Party which stormed to victory in the last-ever European parliamentary elections in Britain.

Boris Johnson took matters into his own hands late on Friday evening, opting to resign from parliament rather than be further subjected to what he described as a “witch-hunt” investigation into allegations he misled parliament over the media-fueled Partygate scandal during the coronavirus pandemic.

Johnson’s resignation marked the end of an illustrious political career spanning three decades, which saw him serve two terms as mayor of London and a stint in the Foreign Office, before becoming leader of the Conservative party and storming to a historic 80-seat majority in the 2019 general election.

It’s the end of his political career for now, at least. But with reports the former Conservative leader is beyond furious at being forced out of Westminster — much to the delight of his former Chancellor and current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak — who could rule out a Churchillian return to office on the backs of millions of disillusioned Conservative voters? Especially as these voters are increasingly unhappy with the governing party’s refusal to curb immigration, seize the opportunities in the wake of Brexit, and help small businesses.

One existing vehicle that could be mobilized is Reform U.K., a political party founded by Nigel Farage and born out of the ashes of the Brexit Party. Still in its infancy and a relatively unknown entity, the party could be utilized to spark a political backlash against Westminster in a general election that can be held no later than winter next year.

And with dozens of right-leaning Conservative MPs predicted to lose their seats to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party based on current polling, many will feel they have little to lose by rolling the dice and defecting to a new movement capable of igniting the country.

Farage believes that at least Conservative MPs in “double figures” would join any new credible alliance, and Boris Johnson would add that gravitas and vigor required to appeal to a wider electorate.

“I think it needs to be more than just me, you know? You can have one person leading a party into a European election or something like that. A general election, you’ve got to have a range of talents,” Farage added.

Polling conducted last November suggested a new Farage-led political party could attract over a quarter of U.K. voters — more than enough for a seismic shake-up of British politics. With Boris Johnson on board, that ceiling rises further.

Authored by Tristan Greene via CoinTelegraph.com,

It’s unclear at this time what access the U.K. will receive, but the reported commitment could be the first of its kind…

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently announced that Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic — three tech outfits widely considered the global industry leaders in generative artificial intelligence (AI) technologies — have agreed to provide the United Kingdom with early access to their AI models.

Sunak made the announcement during a speech opening London Tech Week, an event described by organizers as “a global celebration of tech, uniting the most innovative thinkers and talent of tomorrow in a week-long festival.”

He made the comment while explaining a three-part plan to ensure AI systems in the U.K. are deployed in a safe and secure manner. The first step, per a transcript of the speech, is to perform cutting-edge safety research:

“We’re working with the frontier labs — Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic. And I’m pleased to announce they’ve committed to give early or priority access to models for research and safety purposes to help build better evaluations and help us better understand the opportunities and risks of these systems.”

The prime minister went on to explain that the second step of the U.K.’s plan is the recognition that AI as a technology doesn’t “respect traditional national borders,” thus necessitating the formation of a global task force.

Finally, the third step, per Sunak, is to invest in both AI and quantum to “seize the extraordinary potential of AI to improve people’s lives.” He cited recent investments in the amounts of $1.125 billion and $2.75 billion for compute and quantum technologies, respectively, as steps the U.K. had already taken toward accomplishing this goal.

It remains unclear at this time exactly what form of “early or priority” access the U.K. government will obtain or when such access will be afforded.

Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic have historically offered betas and limited preview versions of their large language models (such as Google’s Bard, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude). All three companies have also invested in both internal testing with company scientists and external testing with contracted experts.

The prime minister didn’t make it clear whether the U.K. would obtain earlier access to production models than the general public or contractors or if the commitment was simply to offer access to the government as well as other priority researchers.

These comments come at an active time for the U.K.’s regulatory efforts. Not only is parliament racing to come up with comprehensive protections for citizens relative to the recent generative AI boom, but it’s also facing increasing pressure to regulate cryptocurrency, blockchain and Web3 technologies.

Germany is playing host to what NATO is touting as the largest air drills in the alliance’s history, which has been four years in preparation. 

Dubbed Air Defender 23, the drills kicked off on Monday and will go to June 23, and involve up to 250 aircraft engaging in operations launched from across six military bases. In total, 25 countries are taking part, with the United States sending 100 of its aircraft across the Atlantic for the major exercise.

Large swathes of airspace over parts of Germany will be intermittently closed to civilian aviation while the drills persist, to include the northern German area above the North Sea, a small strip in southern Germany, as well as in the east.

A NATO official told a German publication this this huge show of force is about deterrence…

“Of course, this sends a clear signal, saying that even though this airspace is extremely busy, they are prepared to say, ‘we will defend every centimeter of NATO territory,” he told DW.

Missions are expected to be flown to and from Romania and Estonia as well, with ground drills also ensuing. 

Deutsche Welle summarizes other aspects of the Air Defender 23 exercises as follows: 

More than 10,000 soldiers from NATO countries are participating in numerous drills. Some of these are ground-based, including an “evacuation from an airfield,” said Gerhartz of the German Air Force. This exercise was apparently added to the schedule after the chaos at Kabul airport in 2021 when the US and its allies hastily ended their mission in Afghanistan.

Other scenarios include supporting ground troops from the air, airborne battles against enemy jets, and the interception of medium-range missiles by NATO fighter bombers.

US forces are sending the F-35 stealth combat aircraft, the alliance’s most modern fighter jet, to take part in the exercises. The North Sea will see defensive drills against enemy submarines or ships, Arnold pointed out, adding that an enemy “can also attack from areas other than on the continent.”

.@Team_Luftwaffe🇩🇪kicks off the largest multinational air force deployment in #NATO history as exercise #AirDefender23 begins

The exercise’s large scale operations involve almost 10,000 personnel & more than 250 aircraft from 25 nations & NATO

Read more https://t.co/V3VQiAJKgB pic.twitter.com/oxUrUNQtw0

— NATO Air Command (@NATO_AIRCOM) June 12, 2023

These drills were in planning and scheduled long before the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, but certainly have taken on greater importance for NATO due to the raging conflict which is just outside of NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ countries. 

Authored by Grzegorz Adamczyk via Remix News,

The EU’s Qatargate bribery scandal is being swept under the rug to protect the powerful, warns one Polish MEP…

After the arrest of Greek MEP Eva Kaili (left) in the Qatargate corruption scandal, the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen (center) is facing new scrutiny after new revelations concerning former EU commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos (right).

The EU’s corruption scandal in the European Parliament is being swept under the rug, with those involved returning to their parliamentary duties as if nothing had happened, according to Polish ruling conservatives MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski.

“We are witnessing a cover-up,” said Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, who serves as a Law and Justice (PiS) MEP.

He added that “the scandal was real and the evidence very tangible.”

He also revealed that those involved are returning to their parliamentary duties as if nothing had happened, including former deputy President of the European Parliament Eva Kaili, who is returning to her position as an MEP, according to a report from PAP.

Polish MEP Jacek-Saryusz-Wolski says the EU is trying to bury its massive corruption scandal.

Remix News created a number of short videos on the topic, which outline some of the main allegations. The corruption scandal broke in December 2022 with the arrest of Kaili. She is suspected of having taken bribes from Qatar, with Belgian police discovering over €100,000 stuffed in paper bags and briefcases during a search of her apartment. Prosecutors allege this was bribe money from Qatar.

As Remix News reported, she is known for her luxury lifestyle, and investigations are now questioning how she secured some of her more high-end real estate properties.

In addition, two more MEPs, Marc Tarabella and Andrea Cozzolino, have also been charged in the scandal. They both had their immunity lifted during the criminal probe.

Now, there are fears that due to the high-profile nature of the probe involving liberal MEPs, the EU will not allow the investigation to move forward. There have been claims that up to 100 MEPs could be involved, with far-reaching consequences for the mainstream parties of Europe.

Saryusz-Wolski says that “Fight Impunity,” the name of the NGO led by Pier Antonio Panzeri, a former Italian MEP and one of the suspects, now comes off as sick.

“It is an example of impunity with regard to the corruption in which these people were involved,” he said. He believes that the reason the affair is being swept under the rug is that the scandal could engulf the EU’s executive and other political groupings other than the socialists. 

Eva Kaili is also being investigated in Greece for money laundering. She and her family are suspected of having invested undeclared income in properties. If she is found guilty, it is likely that the Greek courts will hand down a more severe punishment than those in Belgium.

Her lawyers stated at the end of May that she could return to her parliamentary duties, provided she does not leave Belgium. Kaili is being allowed to attend the next session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. 

Authored by CJ Hopkins via ConsentFactory.org,

The first rule of New Normal Germany is “You Do Not Compare New Normal Germany to Nazi Germany!” I did that on the cover of my bestselling book, The Rise of the New Normal Reich, so the State Prosecutor’s office in Berlin has launched a criminal investigation of me for allegedly “disseminating propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization,” which is punishable by up to three years in prison.

Actually, the first rule of New Normal Germany is “Shut Up, Click Heels, and Follow Orders!” I think the second rule is probably the one about not comparing New Normal Germany to Nazi Germany.

Which is totally reasonable. After all, Nazi Germany was not just one type of totalitarian social system among others, like Maoist China, Fascist Italy, the USSR under Stalin, the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, and other totalitarian social systems that you’re allowed to compare New Normal Germany to. And, even if it was (i.e., one example of totalitarianism, among others, and not the incomparably singular and utterly unprecedented historical event that it was), there is no such thing as totalitarianism anymore, so you can’t compare any present-day system, or movement, or widespread sociopolitical phenomenon, to it (i.e., to Nazi Germany), or to any of those other totalitarian systems, especially not in New Normal Germany.

If you do … well, this is what happens.

You want to see a picture of my “propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization,” don’t you? Sure you do. All right, here you go.

My book is the one on the right, of course. The other book is the international bestseller, The Rise and Fall of The Third Reich, by William Shirer, which has sold, I don’t know, a gadzillion copies since it was published in 1960, and which you can buy in any bookshop in Germany, and which is absolutely not “propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization.”

And here’s a frame from Rammstein’s music video, Deutschland, in which the Rammstein guys dress up like both Nazis and concentration camp prisoners, which is also not “propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization.”

Oh, and, here is a Tweet by Jessica Berlin, a political analyst and expert in security issues and international development, and a former fellow of The German Marshall Fund of the United States, and the founder and Managing Director of something called CoStruct, where she advises governments, foundations, investment funds, NGOs, and companies large and small on strategy and program design to tackle global challenges with sustainable, scalable solutions, and who is also a commentator at Deutsche Welle News, Washington Post, BBC World Service, Tagesspiegel, ZDF, et al., which is also absolutely not (i.e., Jessica’s Tweet is not) “propaganda, the contents of which are intended to further the aims of a former National Socialist organization.”

OK, yes, Jessica tweeted the same photograph of a bunch of little Nazi girls waving little Nazi flags with swastikas on them that I tweeted back in 2021 (I think), and wrote “they are back,” referring to the Nazis, but Jessica was referring to people in Frankfurt who were supporting Russia instead of … well, you know, the totally non-Nazi Azov Detachment, or “Division,” or whatever they are calling themselves now, and the other Nazi-regalia-wearing heroes that New Normal Germany is supporting and arming, whereas I was referring to the decent, well-meaning, “unfortunately mistaken,” order-following people all around the world who were persecuting “the Unvaccinated,” and who wanted to lock us up in “quarantine camps,” and forcibly experimentally “vaccinate” us.

But, seriously, this investigation is a joke … and it’s not.

The Berlin authorities have the power to imprison me for up to three years, or to fine me thousands of Eurodollars, for tweeting the artwork on the cover of my book.

Apparently, I tweeted an image of the book cover (or at least the cover art of the book) on my birthday, August 24, 2022 at 5:51 P.M. CET, and then again on August 27, 2022 at 8:47 P.M. CET, according to the notice of Ermittlungsverfahren from the Staatsanwaltschaft Berlin. (Yes, I’ve just used the German terms for comic effect, so they can add that to my charges.) If you understand German or would just like to see what an Ermittlungsverfahren notice from the Staatsanwaltschaft Berlin looks like, there’s a photo of it in my recent Substack post.

I can’t go into all the details of my case, and I am certainly not going to argue it in this column — my lawyer’s job is challenging enough; I mean, imagine having me for a client — but I can fill you in on life in New Normal Germany and share some of my personal emotional feelings about the country I have called home for almost twenty years now.

My personal emotional feelings are, it sucks. It didn’t used to suck. It used to be lovely. When I arrived here in Berlin in 2004, the city was still in its “poor but sexy” phase. It reminded me of my years in San Francisco in the early 1980s, before the dotcom boom, except for all the bullet holes in the facades of buildings from the Russian machine guns, and the Stolpersteine, and … well, everyone speaking German. I was still “poor but sexy” back then, and in the throes of an extended midlife crisis (i.e., running around making a fool of myself with Berlin club kids half my age, tripping on mushrooms in Volkspark Friedrichshain, and engaging in other degenerate behaviors), so it seemed the perfect place to set up camp in Europe.

And it was … until the Spring of 2020.

Given its history and the character of its denizens, Berlin felt like the last place on Earth that was ever going to go totalitarian again … and then it did. In the blink of an eye. Like someone had flipped a big “fascism on” switch.

Constitutional rights were abruptly cancelled. Protests against the New Normal were banned. The German media started pumping out propaganda like a Goebbelisan keyboard instrument. Public displays of conformity were mandated. “The Unvaccinated” were banned from society. Hate drunk mobs of New Normal Germans began hunting down maskless people on trains. By the end of it, the government was making plans to forcibly “vaccinate” the entire population.

I’m not going to tell the whole story again here. I told it in the book. I told it as it happened. I told it these Consent Factory columns …

• The Storming of the Reichstag Building on 29 August, 2020 (September 2020)

• The Germans Are Back! (November 2020)

• The “Unvaccinated” Question (March 2021)

• The Criminalization of Dissent (May 2021)

• Greetings From New Normal Germany (May 2021)

• The Road to Totalitarianism (July 2021)

• The Year of the New Normal Fascist (December 2021)

• The Rise of the New Normal Reich (May 2022)

• The Federal Republic of New Normal Germany (June 2022)

• The Normalization of the New Normal Reich (July 2022)

• The “Unvaccinated” Question Revisited (August 2022)

• New Normal Germany’s Geisterfahrer Geist (August 2022)

• The Rise of the New Normal Reich, Consent Factory Essays, Vol. III,
   (August 2022)

• (2020-2021) banned in Germany, Austria, and The Netherlands

… and in many other non-New-Normal-Germany-related columns.

As anyone who has read those columns or the book knows, “The New Normal Reich” does not refer to Germany exclusively. I have also written extensively about the New Normal USA, the New Normal United Kingdom, New Normal Canada, New Normal Australia, and various other New Normal countries, none of which, as far as I’m aware, are attempting to imprison me for my writing, currently.

But Germany is sensitive about its Nazi history, and, well, who wouldn’t be? I certainly would be. If I were a member of the German government, or the police, or the media, or the culture industry, I probably wouldn’t take very kindly to an American writer reminding everyone of when my people tried to conquer Europe, and systematically murdered millions of Jews and assorted other types of human beings because they thought they were the “master race.”

Of course, the New Normal has nothing to do with the Jews, or the Holocaust, or even Nazism, specifically. As I’ve written and stated in my columns and my interviews, the New Normal is a new form of totalitarianism … totalitarianism, of which Nazism is one example among others.

It happens to be a really good example … and it is an example that I am allowed to cite when I am writing and speaking about totalitarianism, or else The Universal Declaration of Human Rights means nothing.

The German authorities understand this. They’re not total idiots. They attended universities. Some of them studied political science, and logic, and even 20th-Century history. They know the difference between pro-Nazi propaganda and anti-totalitarian artwork. They know how absurd the charges against me are, but they have to be pursued, because … well, orders are orders!

And it isn’t just the German authorities. As I’ve tried to explain in my essays, and in the book, and at a recent “Real Left” conference in London, the New Normal is a global phenomenon. GloboCap, Inc. (i.e., global capitalism, or global corporatism, or whatever anyone needs to call the supranational network of global corporations, governments, banks, military contractors, media and entertainment conglomerates, pharmaceutical goliaths, imperious oligarchs, non-governmental governing entities, etc., that are currently running the world) is done playing grab-ass. Grab-Ass time is over. They are going totalitarian on us. It isn’t your grandfather’s totalitarianism. It is a new, global-capitalist form of totalitarianism. However, like every other form of totalitarianism, its ultimate goal is ideological uniformity and control of every aspect of society through a process the Nazis referred to as “Gleichschaltung.”

That process is well underway at the moment. The New Normal authorities and their diverse associates are implementing a variety of societal-control systems, censorship and “visibility-filtering” of speech, digital currencies, restrictions on movement, the enforcement of radical ideological dogmas, and so on. And they are aggressively cracking down on dissent.

One of the most repulsive aspects of their efforts to persecute political dissidents, censor our speech, and otherwise implement “New Normal Gleichschaltung” throughout the planet is the cynical way they’re using the Holocaust and false accusations of anti-Semitism as pretexts. If you wanted to make a mockery of the memory of the Holocaust and the dignity of its victims and “further the aims of a former National Socialist organization” … well, I cannot imagine a better way to do it.

I’ll keep you posted on the investigation, and I’ll try my best to not go full “Late Lenny Bruce” and start publishing trial transcripts verbatim. In the meantime, some of us are gathering in London to discuss what to do about what Michael Shellenberger has dubbed the Censorship Industrial Complex. So it’s back to the Big Smoke once again, assuming the Germans let me leave the country.