Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The House Oversight and Accountability Committee is pushing back against Facts First USA’s call for an investigation into Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), describing the liberal advocacy group’s efforts as “theatrics” meant to intimidate.

“Dark money organizations are attempting to intimidate congressional investigators who are shining a light on the Biden family’s shady business schemes,” a House Oversight Committee spokesperson told The Epoch Times on May 16 in an emailed statement.

Earlier that day, Facts First USA sent a letter to U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves, contending that Comer may have violated the law in a May 14 Fox News interview, during which he said his committee had been unable to “track down” an informant linked to allegations that President Joe Biden was involved in a quid-pro-quo bribery scheme.

“Representative James Comer recently revealed that the ‘informant’ he is relying on for his unsubstantiated allegations against President Biden cannot be located,” Facts First USA co-chairs Maria Cardona and David Jolly wrote. “In truth, there is a strong possibility that the ‘informant’ that Representative Comer has been speaking about does not exist. This would explain why Representative Comer never produces the evidence he says demonstrates criminal conduct on the part of the Biden family.”

Under 18 U.S.C. § 1001, it is unlawful to knowingly make any “materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or representation” regarding a matter within the jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch of the United States.

For the Legislative Branch, the law only applies to administrative matters and congressional investigations or reviews.

Citing that law, Cardona and Jolly called on Graves to investigate, contending: “If there is a whistleblower who concocted a story about an informant, doing so violated Section 1001. Alternatively, it is Representative Comer who violated the law by lying to the American people about the existence of an informant.”

However, the Oversight Committee noted that the whistleblower who had spoken with Congress about the bribery allegations against Biden was not the informant Comer had been referring to in his statements.

“Chairman Comer has been clear that the whistleblower who has provided detailed information regarding the FBI’s evidence of a criminal bribery scheme involving Joe Biden is alive and well,” the spokesperson said. “We won’t be intimidated by these groups’ theatrics and antics.”

Read more here…

Another Russian train derailment has occurred, this time in Crimea on Thursday, in what a number of Russian sources are describing as an act of sabotage. 

Crimean Railways said in a statement that the disaster was caused by “interference from outside persons” – however there was no specific mention of the exact sabotage event in the initial press release, whether a blast or vandalism of the tracks. 

At around 8am, some eight railroad cars toppled off the track outside the south-central Crimean city of Simferopol, Crimean officials have said.

The freight train was reported to be carrying grain. Many sources say that it was due to an improvised explosive device (IED) being placed under the track.

The New York Times has since described that it was “explosions” that derailed the train, in the latest in what’s been a series of such train derailments in Russian territory of late.

⚡️Crimean Sabotage:

An IED was laid under the railway track near the village of Chistenkoye, near Simferopol pic.twitter.com/zpxjIgyLcc

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 18, 2023

Amid these sabotage events, Ukrainian officials while not directly owning up to being behind them, have suggested a military purpose for the freight trains…

Meanwhile, Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, claimed that the train may also have been carrying heavy weapons and military equipment due to which the tracks broke.

Over the past month, there have been multiple train derailments in Russia’s Bryansk region due to explosives, in what the Kremlin has condemned as a Ukrainian cross-border sabotage campaign directed against its infrastructure. Oil facilities have also been hit by drones.

Reuters reported early this month based on local sources that “An explosion derailed a freight train for the second day in a row in a Russian region bordering Ukraine on Tuesday, sending both the locomotive and some cars off the tracks, authorities said.” In that particular prior incident, at least 20 cars were derailed.

Authored by James Durso via OilPrice.com,

• U.S. consumers are showing significantly less concern about the U.S. energy situation than they did one year ago.

• The U.S. House of Representatives may once again consider a piece of legislation to pressure the OPEC oil producers’ group to stop making output cuts.

• The bill may be retaliation against the Arab OPEC countries, and a warning to others, for normalizing ties with Iran and Syria.

In early May, the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary was reportedly considering a bill to pressure the  OPEC oil producers’ group to stop making output cuts by revoking the sovereign immunity that has protected OPEC+ members and their national oil companies from lawsuits over price collusion. (The committee previously passed the bill in 2018, 2019 and 2021.)

The OPEC Basket Price has hovered in the mid $70s, not historically high, though U.S. politicians like to talk down the price of gasoline before the summer driving season begins. (Saudi Arabia needs a price of $80.90 USD to balance its budget, and fund the diversification of its economy.)

Gasoline prices are higher than during the Trump administration, but the Gallup polling organization reported in April 2023, “Americans show significantly less concern about the U.S. energy situation now than they did a year ago.”

If American consumers aren’t up in arms over gasoline prices, and the recent OPEC production cuts have failed to stop the slump in crude oil prices, why might OPEC be a target now?

One reason may be the good news out of the Middle East:

• a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia (with Chinese mediation);

• Egypt and Iran starting to normalize ties (with mediation by Iraq);

• Syria rejoining the Arab league;

• the United Arab Emirates and Iran in talks to promote ties,

• and the possibility for energy cooperation between Iraq and Iran. 

The bill may be retaliation against the Arab OPEC countries, and a warning to others, for normalizing ties with Iran and Syria, under the color of protecting U.S. consumers. It also avoids a discussion about the Biden administration policy of limiting oil and natural gas production, though lately the administration has approved limited drilling in federal lands.

And not to be outdone, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers just announced the “Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023,” that would counter foreign governments’ outreach to Syria and allow for additional sanctions on anyone doing business with the Assad government. 

The losers? Israel which probably can’t depend on the Arabs to form a bloc to back an attack on Iran’s nuclear research facilities; and the U.S., which is seeing its influence diminish as OPEC members in the Middle East start to normalize with the hated governments in Tehran and Damascus, and welcome China’s mediation of negotiations between Tehran and Riyadh, and Russia’s facilitation of talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria, and Syria and Turkey. (The worst-case scenario for Tel Aviv and Washington is Chinese participation in talks between Israel and the Palestinians.)

Normalization of relations between the Arab OPEC states and Iran and Syria would lower tensions in the region, which is not in Washington’s interest as big customers like the Saudis and Emiratis might scale back purchases of weapons intended to counter Iran. Tensions also keep the U.S. busy in the neighborhood to “ensure stability,” though U.S. actions in Iraq and Libya (and its supporting role in Yemen) guaranteed the opposite. And tension in the region makes it easy for Israel’s Shabbos goy in the U.S. to scotch any attempts to pressure Israel and the Palestinians to get peace talks going “or else,” especially if the Pals invite the Chinese into the process. 

The U.S. may be failing to heed that the Middle East OPEC states, most run by kings or emirs, must pay attention to public sentiment – one secret of successfully ruling without elections. Though Iran is not popular with the publics in Arab OPEC countries, closer relations might result in less tension and more people-to-people ties and economic opportunity that will promote stability, which is more important than democracy for the Arab Spring generation according to a recent region-wide poll.

The 2022 Arab Youth Survey also found, “Nearly three-fourths (73%) want to see the US disengage from the region. China, Turkey and Russia are now seen as the region’s strongest allies” and “the default position of looking to the West in times of crisis is being eroded by new allegiances to China, Russia and Turkey.” 

The 2022 Arab Youth Survey found that 73% want the US to disengage from the region.

A plurality blame US/NATO for the war in Ukraine.

China and Russia are more favorably seen than the West.

(Polling was conducted by the UAE branch of US PR firm BCW, owned by British giant WPP) pic.twitter.com/0J3jRFlj90

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) May 18, 2023

This sentiment may see other Arab states, i.e., Saudi Arabia, not rushing to join American projects such as the Abraham Accords, which Israel still hopes will be a detour around peace talks with the Palestinians, and instead favor homegrown initiatives to stabilize the region.

Thus, Washington’s attack on the economic engine of the Middle East, petroleum, and use of sanctions to halt attempts to end conflict and alienation between the OPEC Arabs and Iran and Syria. It is important that peace not break out as that would depress weapon sales, increase regional economic diversification and integration and reduce the need for Washington’s “solutions,” and introduce to the region new economic and political players, such as China and Turkey. 

Washington has a lot of power and can force events in the short term, but it has already lost the hearts and minds of Middle Eastern youth who, since 2001, have matured with the U.S. continuously engaged in combat operations in their lands – and all for nothing. For the future, it would be wise for Washington to remember the Cold War policy that understood that civil rights and economic opportunity for all Americans was the nation’s best weapon in the war of ideas with Communism. It worked against the Reds then and it will work against the Islamists now and, if America wants to be part of the future of the region it should stop being an example of the worst kind. 

After February’s ridiculous pumpfest, US existing home sales have continued to trend lower with March down down and now April dropping 3.4% MoM (worse than the 3.2% drop expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Existing home sales are down 14 of the 15 months, leaving them down just over 23% YoY.

“Home sales are bouncing back and forth but remain above recent cyclical lows,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“The combination of job gains, limited inventory and fluctuating mortgage rates over the last several months have created an environment of push-pull housing demand.”

This should surprise no one given that mortgage rates rebounded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The median selling price of a previously owned home fell 1.7% from a year ago, the biggest drop since 2012, to $388,800. However, prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest.

“Even in markets with lower prices, primarily the expensive West region, multiple-offer situations have returned in the spring buying season,” Yun said.

The number of homes for sale rose to 1.04 million, up 1% from a year ago. Still, inventory was nearly double that in April 2019. At the current sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to sell all the properties on the market. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight market.

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Riverhead in Suffolk County, New York, declared a state of emergency on May 16 in an effort to prevent an influx of illegal immigrants from being sent to the small town following the expiration of Title 42.

Riverhead Supervisor Yvette Aguiar signed the emergency declaration after reports emerged that officials from New York City were arranging to transport immigrants to a number of hotels and motels in the town.

According to a statement from Aguiar’s office, the order was signed “based on information received and in response to reports that the New York City Department of Homeless Services has, or will be arranging for the transportation and relocation of undocumented migrants and/or asylum seekers to hotels or motels within the Town of Riverhead.”

Aguiar told News 12 Long Island that New York City Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, had recently sent out an advisory to all housing facilities in Suffolk County stating that the city would pay for the housing of immigrants for 12 months if the facilities agreed to accommodate them.

The advisory reportedly stated that the city would sign a contract with the facilities that agreed to house the immigrants.

Aguiar told the publication that three facilities in the small town of roughly 33,539 people had agreed to house immigrants and offered to sign the contract.

In response, Aguiar—who previously worked as a detective sergeant for the NYPD Counter Terrorism Division—declared a state of emergency to stave off what she anticipates would be thousands of immigrants heading to the small town, leaving it overburdened.

‘Already Overwhelmed’

“It’s going to tax our schools that are already overwhelmed, it’ll probably increase the crime rate because these individuals are going to be hungry in the street and they need shelter,” Aguiar told News 12 Long Island. 

“It’s going to tax police; it’s going to tax the hospitals. The infrastructure component, we don’t have it.”

Under Aguiar’s state of emergency, all facilities across the town including hotels, motels, bed-and-breakfast facilities, homeless shelters, and lodgings are banned from accepting immigrants.

Facilities that violate the order will be “dealt with in the courts,” Aguiar told News 12.

Separately, Aguiar told Patch that, compared to surrounding townships on the East End and throughout Suffolk County, “Riverhead has done more than its share when it comes to housing the homeless, providing services, and offering affordable housing and our resources.”

“Taxpayers simply cannot withstand further demand on our public services,” she said, adding that the health and safety of Riverhead residents is her top priority.

Aguiar also took aim at the Biden administration for failing to anticipate the huge volume of immigrants that would overwhelm the southern border when Title 42—which allowed Border Patrol agents to turn illegal immigrants back to Mexico immediately over public health concerns amid the COVID-19 pandemic—expired.

She said the federal government has “failed to defend the sovereignty of the nation, resulting in thousands of migrants and asylum seekers crossing the U.S. border virtually unchecked.”

Adams to Send Migrants From NYC

“There is nothing humanitarian about a sanctuary city sending busloads of people to a rural town that does not have the infrastructure to care for them, especially since social services funding is not available to undocumented individuals,” Aguiar added.

The state of emergency in Riverhead comes after Adams reportedly held a call with more than 100 state leaders on May 11 seeking support from officials to help house thousands of immigrants that were expected to flood the southern border after Title 42 expired.

In the past week alone, some 4,300 illegal immigrants have arrived in New York City, according to New York City Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services Anne Williams-Isom. That brings the total number of immigrants currently in the city’s care to over 41,500.

However, multiple counties across the state, already struggling with limited resources, are pushing back against housing immigrants.

Earlier this month, Rockland and Orange counties filed a lawsuit against the Adams administration to stop him from transferring the illegal immigrants to their jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman told a press conference Monday that the county will not participate in any sanctuary programs, adding that it is not the responsibility of local government.

“It is the responsibility of the federal government to have a national policy,” he said.

“To invite people in who are undocumented, not knowing who they are or why they are here, I think is very faulty and something we do not endorse in Nassau.”

The Epoch Times has contacted New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s office for comment.

Earnings season came to a soft close this morning when the last big retailer, Walmart, reported earnings and comp sales that were stronger than expected across the board, and also hiked its full year guidance even as it echoed Target in warning that sales have moderated as the quarter progressed with general merchandise sales reflected softness in discretionary categories including home, electronics and apparel.

Starting at the top, this is what WMT reported for Q1:

• Revenue $152.30 billion, +7.7% y/y, beating estimates of $148.72 billion, with “strength across all operating segments; Negatively affected by $0.2 billion from currency fluctuations”, and while there was “strong growth in membership income”, “other income was negatively affected by a decline in sustainability income”
• Adjusted EPS $1.47 vs. $1.30 y/y, beating estimates of $1.31
• Total US comparable sales ex-gas +7.3%, beating the estimate +5.08%
  • Walmart- only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +7.4%, beating estimates of +5.23%, with strength in grocery and health & wellness, offset by softness in general merchandise
  • Sam’s Club US comparable sales ex-gas +7%, beating estimates of +6.81%, driven by “increases in ticket and transactions as well as unit growth”
• Walmart eCommerce net sales up 26% “led by omnichannel, including pickup and delivery”
• Change in Sam’s Club e-commerce sales +19%, missing estimates of +19.8% (2 estimates)
• Gross profit rate declined to 23.7% from 23.8% “primarily due to mix of sales globally, partially offset by normalization of supply chain and freight costs in the U.S., and favorable business mix from higher margin initiatives.” Additionally, “the sales mix negatively affected by a shift from general merchandise to grocery and health & wellness, including nearly 360 bps shift in Walmart U.S.” 
• Operating cash flow increased to $4.6BN from a burn of ($3.8BN) “due to moderated levels of inventory purchases and timing of certain payments”
• Free cash flow also increased to $0.2BN from a burn if ($7.3BN) “due to the improvement in operating cash flow, partially offset by an increase of $0.9B in capital expenditures to support the company’s growth strategy”

With comp sales easily topped Wall Street’s estimates, even as Walmart said shoppers will remain under pressure this year, CFO John David Rainey said that strong demand spurred higher-than-expected earnings in the first quarter, fueling the increase in the company’s outlook.

“There’s reason to be somewhat cautious on the health of the consumer, but if you look at our results in the quarter, it certainly speaks to our value proposition resonating with customers,” Rainey said in an interview. “The outlook on the rest of the year hasn’t changed appreciably.”

The upbeat results point to the resilience of Walmart’s massive grocery business, which is enabling the company to grab more sales even as US shoppers think twice before buying discretionary goods. Target warned of softening sales trends this week, while Home Depot cited a consumer pullback in cutting its annual profit forecast.

And speaking of guidance, looking ahead Walmart boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year, which is now in line with Wall Street consensus even if the company’s Q2 guidance came in modestly short of expectations:

Second Quarter Forecast

• Sees adjusted EPS $1.63 to $1.68, both below the estimate $1.70
• Sees consolidated net sales up about 4%
• Sees consolidated operating income decline about 2%

Full Year Forecast

• Sees adjusted EPS $6.10 to $6.20, previously saw $5.90 to $6.05, the mid-point coming above the estimate of $6.14
• Sees net sales +3.5%, previously saw +2.5% to +3%
• Sees year consolidated operating income increase approximately 4.0%-4.5%, including an expected 100bps impact from LIFO
• See year capital expenditures flat to up slightly, unchanged from prior guidance

In short, according to the company “expectations are for Walmart U.S. and International to grow slightly faster than our prior view and for Sam’s Club growth to be consistent with our February guidance.”

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Doug McMillon said “We had a strong quarter. Comp sales were strong globally with eCommerce up 26%. We leveraged expenses, expanded operating margin, and grew profit ahead of sales.”

The CEO also touched on inflation which “remained high, up low double digits and food categories…On a two-year stack basis, food inflation remains over 20% and continues to pressure discretionary wallets.”

However, while results were generally solid, the company issued a warning which echoes what both Target and we observed previously, namely that there has been a slowdown in spending in recent weeks: the company said that US monthly comp sales growth moderated as the quarter progressed and general merchandise sales reflected softness in discretionary categories, including home, electronics, and apparel. One can only assume that the March weakness spilled over into April and May.

Separately, WMT said it repurchased 4.8 million shares, returning $0.7 billion to shareholders; and advised that it has $18.6 billion remaining of its latest $20 billion authorization approved in November 2022.

WMT shares rose 3% at the open of trading; Walmart climbed 5.5% this year through Wednesday, trailing the S&P 500 index’s 8.3% gain.

Walmart’s full Q1 earnings presentation below (pdf link)

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The Disinformation Chronicle – subscribe here (emphasis ours),

1. Twitter Provided Privileged Access to Banning Queen, Taylor Lorenz #TwitterFiles

Twitter engineer walking me through their reporting system, “Wow! She’s a heavy user.” pic.twitter.com/z7Y7q5OEyi

— Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) May 18, 2023

Shortly after Elon Musk purchased Twitter last October, he reinstated several accounts the company had banned, triggering anxiety among tech savvy reporters and eliciting a blaring headline from one of his greatest critics, the Washington Post’s Taylor Lorenz: “‘Opening the gates of hell’: Musk says he will revive banned accounts.”

Her detractors portray Lorenz as hyperbolic and anxious, a characterization she fulfilled by charging that Musk was setting off alarms across the internet, “Elon Musk plans to reinstate nearly all previously banned Twitter accounts — to the alarm of activists and online trust and safety experts.”

Reinstating banned Twitter accounts certainly alarmed Taylor Lorenz as well. According to newly disclosed Twitter files, Lorenz successfully banned an account only a few weeks prior to publishing her Washington Post essay. Other files show Lorenz behind other bans and that Twitter seemed to have a special relationship with her, sending out an alert after Tucker Carlson did a short segment on Fox News ridiculing her often-criticized reporting.

The month before Lorenz’s article alleging that Musk was “opening the gates of hell”, she successfully pushed to ban a Twitter account with a small following called @fearthefloof. This account dug into her past and detailed her life as a Manhattan rich girl, who attended a Swiss boarding school, and has a well-connected sister named Brook Lorenz—a publicist who has worked at CNN, the Washington Post and CBS News.

According to this now deactivated account, Lorenz is also able to scrub much of her past from web searches because her uncle owns the internet archive, which stores old webpages.

After Lorenz reported @fearthefloof, Twitter executives looked for possible violations of rules, but apparently found none, concluding the account was “generally healthy and mostly conversational or commentary in nature.” Nonetheless, the account was suspended for violating “Twitter media policy.”

The @fearthefloof tweets on Lorenz were then published on this website. I asked Lorenz by email to identify any false tweets by the account, but she did not respond.

Digging through Twitter’s files, I discovered other examples where Twitter granted Lorenz special privileges. After Tucker Carlson did a brief March 2021 Fox News segment deriding Lorenz’s penchant for labeling criticism of herself as “harassment,” one Twitter official alerted colleagues to monitor tweets about the Post columnist—“We need to be careful with her.”

This image inside Twitter of Lorenz as “victim” was likely aided by her near constant stream of complaints, asking Twitter to take down and suspend accounts. In another example, last fall, Lorenz reported and successfully suspended the account of Stanford professor Jay Bhattacharya after he tweeted an email one of her journalist friends sent him.

“It’s shocking that a journalist at the Washington Post would get involved in a minor twitter squabble,” said Bhattacharya, who described the email as harassing. “It’s even more shocking that Twitter responded.”

“Wow! She’s a heavy user,” a Twitter engineer guffawed, as he guided me through Twitter’s reporting system.

Twitter Lorenz

In her November Washington Post essay complaining about Musk, Lorenz quoted Caraballo, the transgender activist at Harvard Law’s cyberlaw clinic. As Caraballo told Lorenz:

Apple and Google need to seriously start exploring booting Twitter off the app store. What Musk is doing is existentially dangerous for various marginalized communities. It’s like opening the gates of hell in terms of the havoc it will cause. People who engaged in direct targeted harassment can come back and engage in doxing, targeted harassment, vicious bullying, calls for violence, celebration of violence. I can’t even begin to state how dangerous this will be.

A month before complaining to Taylor Lorenz that online stores should consider banning Twitter, Caraballo emailed Twitter a private letter on October 4, asking that they permanently ban @LibsofTikTok. Lorenz had reported on Libs of TikTok some months prior: “Meet the woman behind Libs of TikTok, secretly fueling the right’s outrage machine.”

In the email, Caraballo expressed “imminent public safety risks” caused by Libs of TikTok that were alleged to be inciting violence. “We would like to schedule a meeting within the coming days regarding this matter and would appreciate it if you could respond by Tuesday, October 11^th.”

10. The letter was sent by Caraballo and several groups including the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a favored source in Lorenz essays on banning. pic.twitter.com/1tMDXnXHVD

— Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) May 18, 2023

“All I do is just share what people put on Tik Tok, in their own words, which is scary to them,” Libs of TikTok’s Raichik told me. “And this tears apart their narratives, because it’s first-hand evidence of how extreme they are. When they can’t debate their ideas, they then resort to censorship. And the first step was doxing me, and Taylor Lorenz showing up at my family’s house.”

The day after Caraballo asked for Libs of TikTok to be banned, a Twitter employee wrote that Taylor Lorenz had reported an account called @fearthefloof. The email implies that Lorenz had successfully banned another account called @RobProvince. In this case, as in many others, the Twitter employee asked to see if violations could be found from multiple angles.

Could you please check this handle (@fearthefloof) for ban evasion? Taylor Lorenz, a journalist that has been doxxed many times, has reported his tweets to me. She believes that it is the same person that was behind @RobProvince account that has been banned.

If it is not ban evasion please check private media/harassment. Thank you.

Twitter’s investigations of that account seems to have found no violations of ban evasion, abusive safety policies, harassment toward Taylor Lorenz, platform manipulation, or the sharing of personal information. 

“The account was generally healthy and mostly conversational or commentary in nature.”

6. A month prior to that, Lorenz went after @DrJBhattacharya for tweeting an email by her friend and itinerant blogger @WalkerBragman. Bhattacharya tweeted a harassing email Bragman sent him and it had Bragman’s contact info. pic.twitter.com/legZMQmbYb

— Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) May 18, 2023

Doxing is for me, not for thee

Lorenz’s concerns about doxing ring somewhat hollow. In her Washington Post essay exposing Chaya Raichik as the person behind Libs of TikTok, Lorenz’s piece had a link to Raichik’s work address. In a defamation lawsuit filed in August 2021 and still working its way through the courts, Lorenz is also accused of doxing Ariadna Jacob in a New York Times article “Trying to Make It Big Online? Getting Signed Isn’t Everything.”

According to the lawsuit, Lorenz’s article linked to Jacob’s home address:

12. It’s hard to understand Lorenz’s concerns about doxxing when she has done this so many times herself. Here’s one allegation in a defamation lawsuit by @littlemissjacob against Lorenz that is still working it’s way through the courts. pic.twitter.com/FHlZXYbHIK

— Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) May 18, 2023

“We need to be careful with her.”

Lorenz seems to have had allies and protectors inside Twitter. In a March 2021 segment on Fox News, Tucker Carlson gave a mocking portrayal of Lorenz, comparing her to Meghan Markle, Michelle Obama, and Hillary Clinton, saying that Lorenz has “one of the best lives in the country.”

The above is a truncated version of the full report, which can read here – including ‘the wrath of Taylor Lorenz on the warpath’ and how she encouraged people to sic the Department of Justice on someone.

Another day, another hawk… and this time the market seems to be starting to believe it…

“After raising the target range for the federal funds rate at each of the last 10 FOMC meetings, we have made some progress,” Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said in prepared remarks for a speech to bankers in San Antonio.

“The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet.”

“We haven’t yet made the progress we need to make. And it’s a long way from here to 2% inflation,” Logan said, referring to the Fed’s longer-run goal.

Additionally, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson echoed Logan’s comments:

“Inflation is too high, and we have not yet made sufficient progress on reducing it,” he said.

“Outside of energy and food, the progress on inflation remains a challenge… a year is not a long enough period for demand to feel the full effect of higher interest rates.”

So, a pause at best, more hikes possible, no signs of cuts at all.

The response was quick with futures hitting the lows of the day, extending losses after the ‘good’ initial claims data…

And Treasury yields spiking with the short-end underperforming…

With 2Y yield up at a key resistance level…

And expectations for Fed rate changes continued to trend hawkishly…

Not what the market wanted to believe…

Today in “efficiency of sanctions against Russia” news, $120 million superyacht Alfa Nero has become abandoned in Falmouth Harbour, Antigua, leaving its crew to do nothing but sit around all day playing Call of Duty.

That’s actually the story with the yacht as it stands today, according to Bloomberg. The outlet writes that the “bored crew” has nothing to do since “no passengers come aboard” the 267 foot yacht anymore. 

The yacht, which is equipped with an infinity pool and helipad, has been taken over by the skeleton crew that remains, according to the report:

“The captain sleeps in a guest bedroom, but otherwise the crew mostly remain below deck, leaving the five other luxury cabins, the spa, the gym, the elevator and everything else on board largely unused.”

The yacht hasn’t moved since March 2022 when the UK and US slapped sanctions on its owner, fertilizer billionaire Andrey Guryev. A lawyer for Guryev denies it is his, and the yacht had been made available to charter for $1 million per week, until recently, the report says.

It is difficult to ascertain who the real owner of the yacht is, due to the way ownership is hidden via numerous entities, the report says. A notice of the ship’s seizure by the Antiguan government, however, is made out to Guryev. 

Antigua has now officially seized the ship, posting a Antiguan flag and 2 security guards aboard. 

The crew is holding out for back pay, the report says, which is aggregating at an gargantuan clip of $112,000 per month. The crew has been reduced from 44 people to just 6. 25 crew members are suing to try and recover more than $2 million in wages.

They yacht, as is apropos for a Russian billionaire, also needs a constant supply of diesel. Tom Paterson, the dockmaster at the Antigua Yacht Club, commented: “You can’t even open the doors on Alfa Nero without diesel. These boats, from the day they launch to the day they die, are burning fossil fuels.”

Antigua, meanwhile, has said it has received over 20 bids for the ship and they are asking US authorities to lift the sanctions on it so they can sell it. 

Sir Ronald Sanders, Antigua’s ambassador to the US, told Bloomberg: “Nobody’s laid claim to it, nobody’s been paying its bills. It’s been running up money left, right and center, and it has become a risk to the harbor itself.”

As a result of sanctions, Bloomberg notes that “more than two dozen vessels worth about $4 billion have been impounded in ports around the world.”

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Buoyant soft data has driven much of the recent optimism in Europe but it is now beginning to sour, leaving the equity market poised to begin underperforming after outpacing DM stocks for most of the past two years.

The German ZEW’s expectations component came in significantly weaker than forecast.

This gives a good six-month lead on the euro-zone’s composite PMI, and points to it weakening through the remainder of the year.

Expectations for growth in the euro-zone last year and this year were dismal. But a milder winter led to a less-bad-than-feared outcome, and soft, survey-based data like the PMI registered this optimism, helping fuel sentiment and a stock-market rally.

But all the hopium in the world won’t by itself change the hard data, which is what ultimately counts. Growth is barely above zero, retail sales are contracting, and credit is tightening.

Economic surprises have been rising, but they were driven primarily by soft data exceeding expectations. Hard data (apart from labor) consistently disappointed. Now soft data is disappointing as lofty expectations are coming up against reality and heading back to earth.

Expect this trend to continue. Real money growth in Europe has collapsed, and this points to data beginning to disappoint more.

(As an aside, this relationship shows that economists in the aggregate do not consistently track money growth as a leading indicator of economic activity.)

Data worse than expectations and weakening sentiment leaves European stocks in greater jeopardy, especially at a time when the Fed is coming towards the end of its hiking cycle – a strong indication that US stock outperformance about to re-assert itself.