Authored by Janice Hisel via The Epoch Times,

San Francisco authorities are refusing to release the mugshot of David DePape, the suspect arrested in the Oct. 28 hammer attack of Paul Pelosi, husband of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California).

City police as well as the county sheriff’s office both denied The Epoch Times’ emailed requests for the mugshot of DePape, 42.

An initial request was sent to the San Francisco County Sheriff’s Office, which operates the jail where DePape is being held. An officer replied: “We do not own the rights to mugshots;” San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) does.

The SFPD public information officer, Officer Nicole Pacchetti, told The Epoch Times: “Under the current circumstances we do not release mugshots of the suspect.”

Although police across the United States routinely release mugshots of arrested suspects, San Francisco Police Chief William Scott announced in 2020 that he would no longer release mugshots “except in circumstances where their release is necessary to warn the public of imminent danger or to enlist the public’s assistance in locating individuals, including at-risk persons.”

At the time, the chief cited research showing that widespread publication of mugshots “fosters racial bias and vastly overstates the propensity of black and brown men to engage in criminal behavior.” Scott also said that refusing to release mugshots reinforces a cornerstone of American jurisprudence: “innocent until proven guilty.”

The Epoch Times and other news media also have been denied other commonly released records in the Pelosi-DePape case.  San Francisco’s top prosecutor confirmed Nov. 3 she was refusing to release a recording of Pelosi’s 911 call and officers’ body camera footage.

The Epoch Times is still waiting for responses to outstanding requests for a number of other records related to the incident.

DePape was arrested after police said they witnessed him hitting Paul Pelosi, 82, with a hammer inside the Pelosi residence, fracturing his skull.

In court records, police said DePape admitted to them that he broke into the house by smashing through a glass door, and he had come there “on a suicide mission,” with the intent of questioning Nancy Pelosi about lies and political corruption in Washington, D.C.

After Paul Pelosi told DePape that his wife, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was not home, DePape announced: “I’m going to tie you up.”

Pelosi made an excuse to use the restroom, where he then dialed 911 but “to diffuse the situation,” told the dispatcher he didn’t need emergency help.

The dispatcher decided to send officers anyhow for a well-being check, a move that authorities say may have saved Paul Pelosi’s life.

When officers arrived, they found Pelosi and DePape inside the house, struggling over a hammer. DePape “wrenched the hammer away from Mr. Pelosi,” then hit him in the head “at full force,” a court record says.  Pelosi was knocked unconscious; officers tackled DePape and “disarmed him,” the document says.

The White House is now privately urging the Ukrainian government to show openness toward negotiations with Russia, The Washington Post reported Saturday. It follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pledging to never enter negotiations with Moscow unless Vladimir Putin is removed from power. 

The US administration appears to be trying to nuance the push not as a compromise, but under the optics of ensuring Ukraine “maintains a moral high ground in the eyes of its international backers” as “a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come”.

This marks the first reported major admission on the part of the Biden administration that dealing with rising food and fuel costs – also at a moment just ahead of midterm elections in which voters are dreading inflation – is a public priority in the West that is quickly supplanting the question of whether Ukraine will “win”.

The WaPo report indicates the White House is fully cognizant of the growing war “fatique” – also amid increased vocal GOP objections to the ‘blank check’ approach to Ukraine foreign aid: 

While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” said one U.S. official who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations between Washington and Kyiv.

US officials cited in the report say the onset of a harsh winter, and the fact that Ukraine is already experiencing rolling emergency blackouts due to Russia’s attacks on the energy grid, is likely to make Zelensky amenable to ceasefire talks. 

The US officials believe that Kiev “is attempting to lock in as many military gains as it can before winter sets in, when there might be a window for diplomacy.”

While over a month ago international headlines were full of positive statements painting an optimistic picture of a rapid and successful Ukrainian counter-advance against the Russians in the east and south, recent weeks have seen this glowing assessment fade as another stalemate on the front lines has set in. Moscow had responded to the major counteroffensive with Putin’s partial mobilization order, which has seen tens of thousands of fresh recruits pour into the theater. 

Regardless of these fresh reports of a quiet effort to get Zelensky to the negotiating table, which is also being reported in Reuters, resistance to the idea remains fierce among hawks in both Washington and Kiev. Also, the official White House position has long remained that the timing of peace talks is entirely up to the Ukrainians. The Post report continues: 

In recent weeks Ukrainian criticism of proposed concessions has grown more pointed, as officials decry “useful idiots” in the West whom they’ve accused of serving Kremlin interests.

“If Russia wins, we will get a period of chaos: flowering of tyranny, wars, genocides, nuclear races,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Friday. “Any ‘concessions’ to Putin today — a deal with the Devil. You won’t like its price.”

Even suggesting the possibility of negotiated settlement in public discourse is met with cries of that’s “dangerous” from diehard Ukraine supporters…

Ukrainian fatigue? This statement made by Washington is dangerous. Empowers many African, Central and South American countries that side with Moscow

We cannot allow the perpetuation of the Russian problem in Europe. We’ve been allowing it for far too long. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/cbb35FMgmi

— Alexandre Krauss (@AlexandreKrausz) November 6, 2022

But for American voters more broadly, there also remains the glaring contradiction of rising cost of living at home, combined with the spectacle of monthly billion dollar foreign handouts to the Ukrainian government, whether it be in the form of arms or humanitarian or budgetary aid.

There have also been recent revelations of US administration frustration with Zelensky, with accusations that he remains ‘ungrateful’ at the tens of billions Washington has already provided for the war effort, given he always asks for more. “Show a little more gratitude…” has been the Biden administration’s private messaging for months.

By Brian Gardner, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist, author of Potomac Perspective

A host of factors clearly signal a Republican takeover of the House.  Although the battle for the Senate is closer, Republican candidates in key races have momentum and the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in the Senate.  The baseline case is a Republican sweep.  This note takes a final pre-election look at what to expect the election outcome(s) could mean for policy and markets.

The fundamentals of the midterm elections have favored Republicans.  History points to significant Republican gains.  Numerous polls suggest that voters are prioritizing issues that Republicans are running on, such as inflation, crime, and immigration while issues that might suggest a positive environment for Democrats, such as health care and abortion, are ranked as lower priorities by most voters.  Also, polling might be underestimating Republican strength.  New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn recently acknowledged a problem with “nonresponse bias” that occurs when some voters refuse to respond to a pollster’s call. The Times has found that white registered Democrats were 28 percent more likely to respond to the Times’ Senate polls than were Republicans.  According to the Times, this disparity exceeds the nonresponse bias from their pre-election polling in 2020.  Because of a political environment that favors Republicans, historical trends, and the potential underestimation of Republican performance in polls, it seems likely that Republicans will sweep both the House and Senate.

House

What’s at stake? All 435 seats are being contested.  Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win the majority.  A president’s party historically loses 27 seats on average in a midterm election during the president’s first term, so history plus polling data suggest that Republicans are well positioned to win control of the House.  The Real Clear Politics average for the generic congressional ballot has Republicans leading Democrats by three points.  Of note, in a recent generic poll conducted by CBS, Republicans held a 16-point lead among independent voters and 79 percent of independent voters rated the economy as bad (31 percent said the economy was “fairly” bad while 48 percent said it was “very” bad).  Based on polling trends and ratings by independent political analysts, such as the Cook Political Report, a Republican gain of 15 to 25 seats seems likely – with higher gains possible (Note: Democrats lost 13 House seats in the 2020 election which is unusual for the party of an incoming president; this could cap Republican gains).

Senate

What’s at stake? Thirty-five seats are being contested (21 seats currently held by Republicans and 14 seats currently held by Democrats).  Republicans need a net gain of one seat to take control of the Senate while Democrats can retain the majority if they maintain the current 50-50 split. The following is a list of the eight key races and our forecast followed by a list of potential surprise races.

Republican Targets:

• Arizona – Sen. Mark Kelly v. Blake Masters.  RCP average (as of November 3): Kelly +2.0.  Forecast: D hold.
• Georgia – Sen. Raphael Warnock v. Hershel Walker. RCP average: Walker +0.5. Note: If the winner in GA does not win a majority, the state holds a runoff of the top two candidates in December. Forecast: R gain.
• Nevada – Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto v. Adam Laxalt. RCP average: Laxalt +1.9. Forecast: R gain
• New Hampshire – Sen. Maggie Hasson v. Don Bolduc. RCP average: Bolduc +0.3.  Forecast: R gain.

Democratic Targets:

• North Carolina – Rep. Ted Budd v. Cheri Beasley.  RCP average: Budd +5.0. Forecast: R hold.
• Ohio – J.D. Vance v. Rep. Tim Ryan.  RCP average: Vance +3.3.  Forecast: R hold.
• Pennsylvania – Dr. Mehmet Oz. v. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.  RCP average: Oz + 0.3.  Forecast: R hold.
• Wisconsin – Sen. Ron Johnson v. Mandela Barnes.  RCP average: Johnson +3.2.  Forecast: R hold.

Possible Senate Surprises

If Republicans outperform expectations, they could surprise and also gain Senate seats in Colorado, Connecticut, and/or Washington state.  Some polls suggest a close race in Washington despite the state being reliably Democratic. In Iowa, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) is seeking his eighth term.  A Seltzer/Des Moines Register poll last month indicated a closer than expected race.  While Grassley is still favored, there could be a surprise here if voters opt for a generational change.  Lastly, in Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is favored to win reelection, but the state uses ranked choice voting whereby voters rank their choices and if the lead candidate fails to win a majority then the last place candidate’s votes are redistributed to the remaining candidates based on voter preferences until a winner achieves a majority of the vote. A field that includes a candidate backed by former President Donald Trump could complicate Murkowski’s chances.

Our forecast: Republicans gain three Senate seats.

What it Means

A Republican win in either the House or Senate would lead to legislative gridlock, which equity markets have historically welcomed.  Markets would, generally, react positively to the removal of the risk of higher tax rates as well as a lower growth rate in federal government spending.  Although equity markets could react positively to a Republican victory, there are political risks as the risk of government shutdowns rises.  Also, political drama related to future debt ceiling standoffs could increase market volatility and, if a situation similar to the standoff in 2011 is repeated, there could be a risk-off trade as a result.  In a recession, divided government would limit the chances of any type of fiscal response which would, in turn, complicate the Federal Reserve’s task of balancing its dual mandate [ZH: something we said back in January]

How long until the market realizes that after the midterms, the only stimulus until (at least) Nov 2024 will be monetary pic.twitter.com/c89mILMHEj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2022

If Republicans win, energy and defense could be the biggest sector winners. In the case of defense, though, investors should not be overly exuberant about increases in defense spending levels as Democrats will continue to have leverage on Capitol Hill and could resist Republican efforts to significantly increase defense spending. A Republican win could also boost chances of passing cryptocurrency legislation since it is a priority for Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) who would presumably chair the House Financial Services Committee if Republicans win the House.  Cryptocurrency is one of the few issues on which Congress could act in 2023-2024 since the issue tends to cut across party lines and is not impacted by partisanship in the same way other issues are affected.  Social media and technology would probably see little impact from a change in control in Congress as these sectors have critics in both parties.  However, the recent change in control at Twitter could slow efforts to revise Section 230 of the Communications Decency act as Republicans assess what the change in ownership means.

A Republican win in the Senate could slow the Biden administration’s regulatory policy but probably not as much as some investors think.  The theory is that a Republican Senate can block nominations to regulatory posts.  However, key federal agencies are already under Democratic leadership and will remain so.  In cases where a future vacancy occurs, the Biden administration can bypass the Senate and appoint “acting” agency heads, a tactic used during the Trump administration.

If expectations are wrong and Democrats retain control of the House and Senate, markets might selloff.  However, there is still likely to be a level of gridlock as the Senate majority would likely remain tightly split and Democrats have shown how difficult it is to pass the Biden agenda through a 50-50 Senate.  In reality, Democrats would need to gain 2-3 Senate seats in order to pass legislation. It is also worth noting that there is little new on the party’s agenda.  If Democrats win, most of their agenda would be to return to unfinished business from 2021-2022.

Russia has announced Sunday that a major dam in the Russian-controlled region of Kherson was damaged in a Ukrainian strike using an advanced US-supplied system. 

“Today at 10:00 there was a hit of six HIMARS rockets. Air defense units shot down five missiles, one hit a lock of the Kakhovka dam, which was damaged,” Russian news agencies quoted local emergency authorities as saying. 

The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine has been in Russian hands since near the start of the invasion of Ukraine, considered a critical asset to the Russians given it supplies water to Crimea. This also makes it a potential target for the Ukrainian army, given President Zelensky’s prior pledges to “liberate” Crimea. 

An official with the Moscow-installed administration, however, said “Everything is under control. The main air defense strikes were repelled, one missile hit [the dam], but did not cause critical damage.” 

The Kakhovka dam has for months been at the center of competing accusations and claims, with President Zelensky saying weeks ago that Russian troops are plotting a ‘false flag’ detonation of the large structure in order to trigger cataclysmic flooding. 

Zelensky appealed to world powers to ensure the dam’s safe operation by sending an international mission to protect and operate it, pointing out that if the dam burst it would case a “catastrophe on a grand scale”.

“The dam of this hydroelectric power plant holds about 18 million cubic meters of water,” he said in statements last month. “If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. Hundreds, hundreds of thousands of people may be affected.”

He described that Russian forces previously kicked the dam workers out of the facility and now have complete control over it. “They have complete control over the station,” Zelensky added. “It is necessary to act immediately so that Russia does not have the opportunity to realize this catastrophe.”

The ongoing standoff mirrors that of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has also from the war’s start been under Russian control but has also suffered shelling, which if damaged severely enough could have catastrophic effects on the whole area, given the potential for radioactive fallout.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• European industries including ferroalloys, fertilizer plants and specialty chemicals are shutting down as a result of the ongoing energy crisis.

• Certain industries may not come back, even if the energy crisis eases.

• An increasingly tight regulatory environment is another reason for de-industrialization in Europe.

The European Union has been quietly celebrating a consistent decline in gas and electricity consumption this year amid record-breaking prices, a cutoff of much of the Russian gas supply, and a liquidity crisis in the energy market.

Yet the cause for celebration is dubious: businesses are not just curbing their energy use and continuing on a business-as-usual basis. They are shutting down factories, downsizing, or relocating. Europe may well be on the way to deindustrialization.

That the European Union is heading for a recession is now quite clear to anyone watching the indicators. The latest there—eurozone manufacturing activity—fell to the lowest since May 2020.

The October reading for S&P Global’s PMI also signaled a looming recession, falling on the month and being the fourth monthly reading below 50—an indication of an economic contraction.

In perhaps worse news, however, German conglomerate BASF said last month it would permanently downside in its home country and expand in China. The announcement served as a blow to a government trying to juggle energy shortages with climate goals without extending the lives of nuclear power plants.

“The European chemical market has been growing only weakly for about a decade [and] the significant increase in natural gas and power prices over the course of this year is putting pressure on chemical value chains,” said BASF’s chief executive, Martin Brudermueller, as quoted by the FT, in late October.

Yet it is worth noting that the energy crisis was not the only reason for BASF’s plans to shrink its presence at home and grow abroad. Increasingly tighter EU regulation was also a factor behind this decision, Brudermueller said.

Other industries also seem to have problems with new EU regulations. The trade body for the steel and aluminum industries, which have also suffered significantly from the energy cost inflation, recently proposed that the EU takes a gradual approach with its new Cross-Border Adjustment Mechanism, also known as the import carbon tax.

The CBAM was conceived as a way of leveling the playing field for European industrial businesses subjected to strict emission regulation that makes its production costlier compared to the production of countries with laxer emission standards. 

Yet it would also make important feedstock for the European steel and aluminum industries costlier, too, adding to the pain these industries are already feeling because they are also among the most energy-intensive ones.

A tenth of Europe’s crude steel production capacity has already been idled, according to estimates from Jefferies. All zinc smelters have curbed production, and some have shut down. Half of the primary aluminum production has shut down as well. And in fertilizers, 70 percent of factories have been idled because of the energy shortage.

Chemical plants are also curbing their activities, ferroalloy furnaces are going cold, and plastics and ceramics manufacturing is shrinking as well.

Some of these businesses might choose to eventually relocate to a place with cheaper and more widely available sources of energy, contributing to the deindustrialization process in Europe. As for the best candidate for this relocation, according to some observers, it is the United States, with its abundant gas reserves, rising production, and friendly investment climate.

Meanwhile, one thing has become crystal clear: reduced energy consumption in Europe’s industrial sectors is really no cause for celebration. If anything, it is a cause for concern and urgent action on the part of decision makers.

The gas price cap the EU agreed on recently might help a little, but since it is tied to lower consumption, it is not really a solution for businesses looking to stay in business. It is a life support system.

Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

Italy argues that German ships flying German flags should be responsible for the migrants…

Survivors are disembarked on the tiny Sicilian island of Lampedusa, Italy, Friday, Oct. 21, 2022. Italy’s coast guard says it has found two dead minors on a migrant boat carrying nearly 40 people in the Mediterranean Sea, and a search is underway for a woman reported missing from the vessel. (AP Photo/David Lohmueller)

Three NGO ships with more than 1,000 people on board are waiting to dock off the Italian coast, but Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi are firmly refusing German demands that the ships dock in Italian ports.

Rome’s foreign ministry confirmed on Thursday that it had previously sent a verbal note to Berlin asking it to accept the migrants on board the German-registered Humanity 1. The Italian ministry added that the German side had been asked for information on the people on board.

The diplomatic document, dated Oct. 23, was published on Wednesday by public television channel RAI3. In its response, the Berlin foreign ministry urged Rome to provide assistance as soon as possible to the people on board the NGO boat, including more than 100 minors.

“Rescuing people in mortal danger is the most important thing,” read a statement from German embassy urging Italy allow the boats to dock.

“If Germany believes that there is a humanitarian problem, it should take care of it, Italy cannot become the refuge of all immigrants,” said the Minister for Relations with Parliament Luca Ciriani while speaking on the “Agorà” show on the Rai3 television channel.

According to Piantedosi, European countries that flag their vessels should welcome those arriving via the NGOs that use those boats. However, he said the only way to solve the migration flow was to stop departures altogether.

Ciriani backed Piantedosi’s hard line on migration, saying, “We cannot simply be the terminal of choices that take place elsewhere. We are a serious country, Italy is a fully sovereign country.”

Ciriani also repeated Piantedosi’s position, saying flying German flags should indicate Germany’s responsibility for migrants on those ships.

“If it intends to act in international waters, then it must also take responsibility for the choices made by the ships flying its flag,” said Ciriani who added, “We cannot accept that Germany decides for us.”

As Remix News previously reported, there are numerous German NGO ships operating in the Mediterranean that rescue migrants but also serve as a draw for many migrants who believe they will be rescued if something goes wrong. The groups have also been accused of cooperating with migrant smugglers and arranging to meet up with smugglers on the open sea to transfer migrants. Many of these ships are supported with funds from German Protestant churches. However, as the German press has reported in the past, the vast majority of these migrants are not refugees, but instead economic migrants.

Italy’s stance may cause another rift within the EU. When Matteo Salvini refused to dock migrants while previously serving as interior minister, migrant numbers dramatically dropped in Italy. However, once he lost power, he was targeted by prosecutors with “kidnapping” charges for defending Italy’s borders and faced harsh prison sentences for his actions.

Italy’s government says it won’t back down

With 179 people on board, Humanity 1 is waiting some 18 kilometers outside Italian territorial waters. Also waiting to dock with 572 people on board is the Geo Barents, a vessel operated by Doctors Without Borders, and the Ocean Viking, a French vessel of the SOS Mediterranée organization, registered in Norway, is carrying more than 200 people. The vessels took on board the people in international waters between Oct. 22 and Oct. 29.

Italy continues to refuse to allow the ships to dock. Ocean Viking had already asked Spain, France, and Greece to do the same on Thursday, according to Hungarian news outlet Magyar Nemzet.

In an interview with the Corriere della Sera, Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi said that with the new right-wing government, Italy would no longer accept people taken on board foreign ships at sea. He stressed that NGO boats regularly carry out their activities with minimal involvement of the authorities. He noted that 16 percent of people arriving on Italian shores are transported via NGO boats, while local authorities are required to assist the remaining 84 percent.

The interior minister had previously declared the docking of the Humanity 1 and the Ocean Viking unsafe by decree, citing national security reasons.

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

More than 30 tankers carrying $2 billion worth of LNG are currently idling off Europe’s coasts as regasification terminals are full and traders expect European natural gas prices to start rising again as winter approaches, the Financial Times reported on Friday, quoting data from energy flow analytics company Vortexa.

According to Vortexa’s head of LNG, Felix Booth, the tankers idling off the coasts of northwest Europe and off Spain and Portugal currently have an incentive to stay where they are, waiting for higher gas prices in the coming weeks and months.

Last month, Spain declared an “exceptional operational situation” as several dozen LNG tankers queued for its regasification terminals, significantly exceeding available slots. The tanker pileup highlights Europe’s problem with LNG import capacity that prompted Germany to urgently strike a deal for the construction of two floating facilities so it can receive LNG directly.

In recent weeks, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub have slumped to the lowest in four months, as comfortable storage levels, the high rate of LNG imports, and the mild weather in October and early November have eased concerns about gas supply and demand balances in the early part of the heating season. As of November 2, gas storage sites in Europe were 95% full, with German storage at 99.3% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. 

Although prompt-month futures prices have dropped, the forward curve is in a state of contango, with December prices and prices through March much higher, giving incentive to traders to hold onto the LNG tankers until prices rise again.  

Early on Thursday, gas prices jumped by 10% as weather forecasts pointed to a colder-than-normal spell coming to northwest Europe by December.  With the inevitable turn of the weather after a warm October, speculation returned over how fast storage levels could be depleted this winter and whether winter demand from Asia will intensify the competition with Europe for LNG supply.

Iran has on Saturday for the first time admitted to supplying Russia with drones, after weeks of condemnation from the West over their widespread use by pro-Kremlin forces in Ukraine. 

However, Tehran insists that its drones were being transferred before the Ukraine invasion. “We supplied Russia with a limited number of drones months before the war in Ukraine,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, as quoted in state media IRNA. 

So while admitting the weapons transfers, which the US has condemned before the United Nations, the Iranian position is that the drones were never intended for use on the Ukrainian battlefield. Essentially Iranian officials are claiming it’s out of their hands and they can’t be held responsible. 

“In a telephone conversation with the Ukrainian foreign minister last week, we agreed that if there was evidence (of Moscow’s use of Iranian drones), he would provide it to us,” Amir-Abdollahian said.

“If the Ukrainian side keeps its promise, we can discuss this issue in the coming days and we will take into account their evidence,” he added.

Washington and Kiev officials do say they possess evidence of Iranian suicide drones having been used to attack both military and civilian infrastructure. Staring last month, Russia dramatically increased its aerial attacks, specifically declaring Ukraine’s energy infrastructure would be degraded. 

Since then, Ukrainian authorities have said up to 40% of the nation’s electrical supply stations have been damaged or knocked offline. Hundreds of thousands of homes in the Ukrainian capital are also said to have been without power for days, also amid rolling emergency blackouts. 

As for Washington’s accusations of ballistic missile transfers between the Islamic Republic and Moscow, Iran has again denied this charge as “completely false”. But US officials have pointed the finger at Iran for helping Russia resupply its dwindling weapons stocks.

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

After the western military attack on Sevastopol briefly halted Russian grain transports, Moscow is back in business with a stronger hand and more favorable terms…

So, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan picks up the phone and calls his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin: let’s talk about the “grain deal.” Putin, cool, calm and collected, explains the facts to the Sultan:

• First, the reason why Russia withdrew from the export grain deal.

• Second, how Moscow seeks a serious investigation into the – terrorist – attack on the Black Sea fleet, which for all practical purposes seems to have violated the deal.

• And third, how Kiev must guarantee it will uphold the deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN.

Only then would Russia consider coming back to the table.

And then – this week on 2 November – the coup de theatre: Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) announces the country is back to the Black Sea grain deal, after receiving the necessary written guarantees from Kiev.

The MoD, quite diplomatically, praised the “efforts” of both Turkey and the UN: Kiev is committed not to use the “Maritime Humanitarian Corridor” for combat operations, and only in accordance with the provisions of the Black Sea Initiative.

Moscow said the guarantees are sufficient “for the time being.” Implying that can always change.

All rise to the Sultan’s persuasion

Erdogan must have been extremely persuasive with Kiev. Before the phone call to Putin, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had already explained that the attack on the Black Sea Fleet was conducted by 9 aerial drones and 7 naval drones, plus an American RQ-4B Global Hawk observation drone lurking in the sky over neutral waters.

The attack happened under the cover of civilian ships and targeted Russian vessels that escorted the grain corridor in the perimeter of their responsibility, as well as the infrastructure of the Russian base in Sevastopol.

The MoD explicitly designated British experts deployed in the Ochakov base in the Nikolaev region as the designers of this military operation.

At the UN Security Council, Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzya declared himself “surprised” that the UN leadership “failed not only to condemn, but even to express concern over the terrorist attacks.”

After stating that the Brit-organized Kiev operation on the Black Sea Fleet “put an end to the humanitarian dimension of the Istanbul agreements,” Nebenzya also clarified:

“It is our understanding that the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine agreed on under UN supervision on 22 July, must not be implemented without Russia, and so we do not view the decisions that were made without our involvement as binding.”

This means, in practice, that Moscow “cannot allow for unimpeded passage of vessels without our inspection.” The crucial question is how and where these inspections will be carried out – as Russia has warned the UN that it will definitely inspect dry cargo ships in the Black Sea.

The UN, for its part, tried at best to put on a brave face, believing Russia’s suspension is “temporary” and looking forward to welcoming “its highly professional team” back to the Joint Coordination Center.

According to humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths, the UN also proclaims to be “ready to address concerns.” And that has to be soon, because the deal reaches its 120-day extension point on November 19.

Well, “addressing concerns” is not exactly the case. Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia Dmitry Polyansky said that at the UN Security Council meeting western nations simply could not deny their involvement in the Sevastopol attack; instead, they simply blamed Russia.

All the way to Odessa

Prior to the phone call with Erdogan, Putin had already pointed out that “34 percent of the grain exported under the deal goes to Turkey, 35 percent to EU countries and only 3-4 percent to the poorest countries. Is this what we did everything for?”

That’s correct. For instance, 1.8 million tons of grain went to Spain; 1.3 million tons to Turkey; and 0.86 million tons to Italy. By contrast, only 0,067 tons went to “starving” Yemen and 0,04 tons to “starving” Afghanistan.

Putin made it very clear that Moscow was not withdrawing from the grain deal but had only suspended its participation.

And as a further gesture of good will, Moscow announced it would willingly ship 500,000 tons of grain to poorer nations for free, in an effort to replace the integral amount that Ukraine should have been able to export.

All this time, Erdogan skillfully maneuvered to convey the impression he was occupying the higher ground: even if Russia behaves in an “indecisive” manner, as he defined it, we will continue to pursue the grain deal.

So, it seems like Moscow was being tested – by the UN and by Ankara, which happens to be the main beneficiary of the grain deal and is clearly profiting from this economic corridor. Ships continue to depart from Odessa to Turkish ports – mainly Istanbul – without Moscow’s agreement. It was expected they would be “filtered” by Russia when coming back to Odessa.

The immediate Russian means of pressure was unleashed in no time: preventing Odessa from becoming a terrorist infrastructure node. This means constant visits by cruise missiles.

Well, the Russians have already “visited” the Ochakov base occupied by Kiev and the British experts. Ochakov – between Nikolaev and Odessa – was built way back in 2017, with key American input.

The British units that were involved in the sabotage of the Nord Streams – according to Moscow – are the same ones that planned the Sevastopol operation. Ochakov is constantly spied upon and sometimes hit out of positions that the Russians have cleared last month only 8 km to the south, on the extremity of the Kinburn peninsula. And yet the base has not been totally destroyed.

To reinforce the “message,” the real response to the attack on Sevastopol has been this week’s relentless “visits” of Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure; if maintained, virtually the whole of Ukraine will soon be plunged into darkness.

Closing down the Black Sea

The attack on Sevastopol may have been the catalyst leading to a Russian move to close down the Black Sea – with Odessa converted into an absolutely priority for the Russian Army. There are serious rumblings across Russia on why Russophone Odessa had not been the object of pinpointed targeting before.

Top infrastructure for Ukrainian Special Forces and British advisers is based in Odessa and Nikolaev. Now there’s no question these will be destroyed.

Even with the grain deal in theory back on track, it is hopeless to expect Kiev to abide by any agreements. After all, every major decision is taken either by Washington or by the Brits at NATO. Just like bombing the Crimea Bridge, and then the Nord Streams, attacking the Black Sea Fleet was designed as a serious provocation.

The brilliant designers though seem to have IQs lower than refrigerator temperatures: every Russian response always plunges Ukraine deeper down an inescapable – and now literally black – hole.

The grain deal seemed to be a sort of win-win. Kiev would not contaminate Black Sea ports again after they were demined. Turkey turned into a grain transport hub for the poorest nations (actually that’s not what happened: the main beneficiary was the EU). And sanctions on Russia were eased on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers.

This was, in principle, a boost for Russian exports. In the end, it did not work out because many players were worried about possible secondary sanctions.

It is important to remember that the Black Sea grain deal is actually two deals: Kiev signed a deal with Turkey and the UN, and Russia signed a separate deal with Turkey.

The corridor for the grain carriers is only 2 km wide. Minesweepers move in parallel along the corridor. Ships are inspected by Ankara. So the Kiev-Ankara-UN deal remains in place. It has nothing to do with Russia – which in this case does not escort and/or inspect the cargoes.

What changes with Russia “suspending” its own deal with Ankara and the UN, is that from now on, Moscow can proceed anyway it deems fit to neutralize terrorist threats and even invade and take over Ukrainian ports: that will not represent a violation of the deal with Ankara and the UN.

So in this respect, it is a game-changer.

Seems like Erdogan fully understood the stakes, and told Kiev in no uncertain terms to behave. There’s no guarantee, though, that western powers won’t come up with another Black Sea provocation. Which means that sooner or later – perhaps by the Spring of 2023 – General Armageddon will have to come up with the goods. That translates as advancing all the way to Odessa.

Twitter is flooded with tweets showing what appears to be China’s first public ground viewing of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s stealth fighter jet. 

State-owned media outlet China Daily reported, “this is the time for J-20s, one of the world’s most advanced fighter jets, to appear in front of the public on the ground” at the 14th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Guangdong province’s Zhuhai on Saturday afternoon. 

Cool…The J-20 was shown in public for the first time!https://t.co/jUeJ21BeJW pic.twitter.com/reho5KwWA3

— 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) November 5, 2022

The latest news: Four J-20s came to the China Air Show and performed a flight show. Two of them landed. The J-20 will be displayed on the ground for the first time. pic.twitter.com/Sb392A07wE

— 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) November 5, 2022

進行起飛檢查的J-20 pic.twitter.com/UhLyBno6R0

— 乐子壬1号机 (@kt396) November 5, 2022

“The stealth plane had carried out several flight performances at previous Zhuhai Airshows and had flown in military parades, but have never been close to the public out of consideration for confidentiality,” China Daily said.  

Air Show 2022 in Zhuhai🇨🇳
PLAAF 2x J-20 Leaving for Further Exercises After Ground Display.
Very Beautiful Imagery of J-20 Powered by WS-10C Yet EOTS Gets Covered pic.twitter.com/ZMGwGUqULp

— David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) November 5, 2022

🇨🇳PLAAF J-20 Has Landed for Zhuhai Air Show 2022
Jet Stationary Display this Year? pic.twitter.com/EYuvzKmf6k

— David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) November 5, 2022

#J20 Aircraft Footage at the #ZhuhaiAirShow2022. pic.twitter.com/VzoCs2DgFu

— International Defence Analysis (@Defence_IDA) November 5, 2022

The J-20 is China’s first stealth combat aircraft that made its maiden flight in 2011 and was officially declassified in 2016. It was deployed by the PLAA Air Force in 2017, becoming the third stealth fighter jet in the world to enter service after US F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II. In 2020, Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces. 

Global powers are locked in an arms race to procure fifth-generation fighters and hypersonic weapons as threats of the next conflict increase by the month.