Update(1715ET): Despite the alarmist talk all afternoon that NATO could invoke the Article 5 collective defense treaty over the alleged Russian rocket attack on a border town, the result of the Polish government national security emergency meeting is going in the opposite direction, and it seems there won’t be escalation today. 

Polish govt spokesman Piotr Mueller said Poland has agreed to “increase its military readiness” – though crucially still admitted “It was not clear what caused the explosion in the southeastern town of Hrubieszów.” Russia has vehemently denied it was behind the explosions which killed two people. So instead of Article 5, Warsaw is merely talking the much lesser known Article 4. Article 4 requires “consultations” when a NATO member is threatened.

NATO AMASSADORS TO MEET ON WEDNESDAY AT REQUEST OF POLAND ON BASIS OF ALLIANCE’S ARTICLE 4 – TWO EUROPEAN DIPLOMATS SAY

“A moment ago it was decided to increase the readiness of some military units in Poland and other uniformed services,” Mueller told reporters in a press briefing. Across Ukraine and as far west as Lviv, Russian airstrikes pummeled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Tuesday. The Hill reports after a terrifying day for Ukraine, “Russia’s widespread missile attack on Ukraine – firing what Zelensky said was 90 missiles – was aimed primarily at the country’s electrical infrastructure following an embarrassing Kremlin retreat from the key Ukrainian city of Kherson.”

It is entirely possible that amid this large barrage of rockets, which also triggered Ukraine’s anti-air defense measures, an errant projectile strayed into NATO member Poland’s territory. Polish Senate Advisor Marcin Zaborowski said late in the day that if indeed it was accidental, Moscow should immediately apologize. So far the Kremlin has denounced the reports as a “deliberate provocation” – suggesting that Ukraine’s backers are seeking to draw NATO into escalation. 

Article 4 call is wise. It seems Poland does not want to be blamed for a possible fait accompli. Discussion with NATO countries buys time for investigations to reach definitive data.

That means I can sleep now.https://t.co/YyExS9RUQL

— Levent Kemal (@leventkemaI) November 15, 2022

NATO Article 4 involves the following: 

All NATO decisions are made by consensus, after discussion and consultation among member countries. Consultation between member states is therefore at the heart of NATO since Allies are able to exchange views and information, and discuss issues prior to reaching agreement and taking action.

As for the Ukrainian government reaction, it was somewhat predictable, with President Zelensky calling it a “really significant escalation” in the war while demanding “action” from the West.

“Hitting NATO territory with missiles… This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed,” Zelensky said his Tuesday night video address. He said it is “only a matter of time before Russian terror goes further.”

Unconfirmed video purporting to show the strike aftermath on the Polish side of the border was aired on a Polish TV station:

NEW: Footage reported to show the immediate aftermath of the explosion in Poland today pic.twitter.com/vTsbg0CpYX

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 15, 2022

Meanwhile, a highly respected weapons tracker social media account that’s generally seen as sympathetic to the Ukrainian side has broken ranks, suggesting what landed on the Polish town was a Ukrainian anti-air missile…

So what crashed in the village of Przewodów, Poland today?

With the cooperation of @blueboy1969 we analyzed the available photos of fragments and came to a clear conclusion that they belong to the 48D6 motor of the 5V55-series missile of the S-300 AD system- a Ukrainian one. pic.twitter.com/f0Ex3USLN8

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) November 15, 2022

With the narrative quickly changing, and available photographic evidence from the impact site now coming under broader scrutiny, Ukraine officials are in damage control…

Ukraine is calling this a Russia-promoted conspiracy theory https://t.co/I1sJcuNcOP

— Jonny Tickle (@jonnytickle) November 15, 2022

* * *

Update(1500ET): Russia has issued its first statements in the wake of conflicting reporting concerning the suspected missile attack on Polish territory, just across the border with Ukraine. Russia is calling the reports a “deliberate provocation” and is denying that its forces have aimed any missiles near the Ukraine-Poland border, per Interfax news. 

The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement saying it has not taken part in “strikes against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border” using “Russian weapons” – as is being alleged by Polish sources. The Russian statement further said it’s Warsaw’s attempt to escalate the situation. The Pentagon has meanwhile said it can’t corroborate the reports at this early stage but is gathering more information. A Pentagon spokesman vowed the US stands ready to “defend every inch of NATO territory.”

According to Polish radio broadcaster Radio Zet, local reports have said what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by Ukraine’s armed forces. But there are conflicting and many unconfirmed claims still circulating. The US State Dept. said, “We are working with the Polish government to collect information and assess what happened.” It also called the reports “incredibly concerning.” 

⚡️First video from the site of the explosion/strike in Poland pic.twitter.com/UOQHBAzine

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 15, 2022

Below is the full Russian statement in response: 

Russia’s defence ministry has denied reports that Russian missiles hit Polish territory, describing them as “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation”.

“No strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction,” it said in a statement.

Wreckage reportedly found at the scene “has nothing to do with Russian weapons”, it added.

Meanwhile “Article 5” is trending on Twitter.

Article 5 is not an automatic tripwire, it relies on consensus like other NATO decision-making processes. Ukraine (and Poland’s) defense wishlists just became more achievable but a NATO consensus on direct conflict with Russia is hardly a given and all parties involved know this https://t.co/A0m4yR62gu

— Dan Trombly (@stcolumbia) November 15, 2022

* * *

Are we about to test Art Cashin’s thesis that you should never bet on the end of the world (i.e. sell stocks as the ICBMs start flying). As a reminder:

Art Cashin, the dean of the NYSE floor, told a story on Tuesday at Barry Ritholtz’s Big Picture conference in midtown that illustrated this point perfectly. It was in the days before the Cuban missile crisis. Mr. Cashin was a young trader. One day a rumor mushroomed that the Russians had launched their missiles. World War III was starting. Mr. Cashin ran across the street to find the best trader he knew – who was in a bar having a drink. Mr. Cashin ran in breathlessly, hardly able to talk.

“Stop,” the trader said. “Have a drink. Explain everything.” After hearing all the information, the trader had one order: “Buy. Don’t sell. Buy.”

“Why?” Mr. Cashin wondered.

“Because if you’re wrong, the trade’ll never clear. We’ll all be dead.”

Well, moments ago futures ignored the venerable market strategist’s words and tumbled after a report from Polish Radio ZET according to which two stray rockets fell in the town of Przewodów on the border of NATO-member Poland with Ukraine (while unreported, the prevailing assumption is that the rockets are Russian).

The Associated Press is also confirming, citing a senior US intelligence official who says two people were killed by the missiles. However, the Pentagon followed by saying it cannot corroborate the reports at this time. Stocks quickly reversed higher on the headline.

And Polish sources are reporting – albeit emphasizing the report is still unofficial – that Polish military planes have been scrambled out of the airport near Tomaszów Lubelski. “The Polish Air Force took fighter jets into the air from the Tomaszow-Lubelski airfield in the Lublin Voivodeship,” the local reports say.

The rockets reportedly hit the grain dryers, leading to two casualties. The police, the prosecutor’s office and the army are on site.

Prime Minister Morawiecki convenes an urgent meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security https://t.co/WGaNBIbox6

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 15, 2022

And as Bloomberg also confirms, Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki has convened an urgent meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has also reportedly convened a national defense council meeting.

Estonia has meanwhile issued a statement saying it is “ready to defend every inch of NATO territory, We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland,” according to its ministry of foreign affairs.

The news has sent futures tumbling.

And further on the news: 

US DEFENSE STOCKS JUMP TO SESSION HIGHS; NORTHROP UP 5%

It will be amusing when reputable news sources deny the whole thing but for now, stocks are dumping and are red on the day after soaring more than 2% earlier.

Hours earlier in the day Ukrainian authorities were reporting a series of fresh missile attack on the capital, and rare airstrikes in Western regions as well, including the city of Lviv. 

It’s popping off in Kiev… multiple rocket strikes reported… pic.twitter.com/vf4dCRhoQ6

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) November 15, 2022

This resulted in new emergency power outages across various cities effected. 

Meanwhile, NATO’s collective defense article is trending on Twitter, which is never a good sign…

developing

In what we’re sure is a sign of incredible demand (or at least, that’s what we’ll probably be told by the company), Tesla is slashing the minimum wait times on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. 

The company’s website reflected the changes on Tuesday after Tesla “added to its electric vehicle inventory in Shanghai at its fastest pace ever in October”, Reuters reported on Tuesday morning, citing data from China Merchants Bank International.

The inventory build comes at a time when global auto companies are “bracing for a downturn” as monetary policy conditions globally are slowly grinding the gears of many economies to a crawl. 

Tesla’s deliveries in China for October were down sequentially from the month prior and the news comes just days after the idea was floated in financial media about whether or not Tesla could export vehicles from Shanghai to the United States. 

Recall, about three weeks ago, Tesla cut the price of some of its cars in China, first raising suspicions about a potential lack of demand days after Musk said the company would continue robust production regardless of whether or not the global economy slipped into recession. 

At the time, Tesla slashed the price of its Model 3 and Model Y to 265,900 Chinese yuan ($36,615) from 279,900 yuan and to 288,900 yuan versus the previous price of 316,900 yuan.

The cuts offset price hikes that took place earlier in the year, which came as a result of higher input costs. “China is experiencing a recession of sorts,” CEO Musk said at the end of October.

The week prior, on a company conference call, Musk had said: “To be frank, we’re very pedal to the metal come rain or shine. We are not reducing our production in any meaningful way, recession or not recession.”

“The public at large realizes that world’s moving towards electric vehicles, and it’s foolish to buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So, we’re in a very good spot.”

“I wouldn’t say it’s recession-proof but it’s recession-resilient, because basically the people of Earth have made the decision in large part to move away from gasoline cars,” he added.

Well now it’s starting to look as though Tesla may have more vehicles on its hands than it knows what to do with…

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

This year’s average U.S. gasoline prices on Thanksgiving are expected to be at their highest level ever for the holiday and beat the previous record from Thanksgiving of 2012, according to estimates from fuel-savings app GasBuddy.

Despite the record-high average gasoline prices, 20% more Americans plan to travel by car for the holiday weekend, compared to 2021, especially after Covid precautions have significantly eased compared to the previous two years, according to GasBuddy.  

Moreover, gasoline prices have dropped a lot from the record highs in June.

Per GasBuddy estimates, the national average is projected to stand at $3.68 a gallon on Thanksgiving Day – nearly 30 cents higher than last year and over 20 cents higher than the previous record of $3.44/gal set in 2012.  

The number of Americans traveling over the Thanksgiving weekend this year is up from 32% last year to 38%, a nearly 20% rise, according to GasBuddy’s Thanksgiving survey. A total of 21% said they had chosen not to drive due to high fuel prices.

Most respondents in the survey indicated they would travel less than an hour away.

“While 21% say high fuel prices are impacting their travel, surprisingly fewer are citing high gas prices this year (46% vs. 51% in 2021) for impacting their travel plans,” GasBuddy said.

The majority of respondents traveling for Thanksgiving, 73%, will not be crossing state lines to do so.

“It has been a dizzying year at the pump, with motorists likely feeling nauseous not from the eggnog, but from the roller coaster ride at the pump with record gasoline prices earlier this year, which have fallen significantly since mid-summer,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

“Americans, however, are proving that while we’ll openly complain about high gas prices, most of us aren’t deterred from taking to the highways to observe Thanksgiving with those that matter most to us, especially as precautions from the pandemic have eased.”

On Monday, De Haan said he expected that in the next ten days, the national average price of gasoline would fall to its lowest level since March. The number of states with below-$3 average gas prices will rise to 5 by the end of the month, he added.   

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is facing the possibility of a ‘trip’ to the US (not an ‘extradition’ – as Bloomberg puts it), as US and Bahamian authorities have been discussing the possibility of bringing him to America for questioning over this firm’s devastating implosion, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

Conversations between law-enforcement officials in the two countries have recently intensified, as they probe what led up to cryptocurrency firm FTX’s meltdown. He has reportedly been cooperating with Bahamian authorities, according to one source.

Since FTX began its tailspin last week, prosecutors and regulators in the US and the Bahamas have opened probes. Bahamian police interviewed Bankman-Fried on Saturday.

Bankman-Fried has apologized repeatedly to FTX’s customers on Twitter. He also said on the social media platform Friday that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did” and that he would seek to provide a complete detailing of what happened once he had a better understanding of the situation. -Bloomberg

In a Tuesday tweet, Bankman-Fried said that he’s “meeting in-person with regulators and working with the teams to do what we can for customers,” and that his goals are to “clean up and focus on transparency,” and “make customers whole.”

14) My goal:

a) Clean up and focus on transparency
b) Make customers whole

— SBF (@SBF_FTX) November 15, 2022

Maybe investigators can check out SBF’s past interviews for clues.

This is SBF on Meet the Press a few months ago.

Normally, people don’t shake so hard the chair moves. pic.twitter.com/LkoR3Kch9k

— Zac Bissonnette (@ZacBissonnette) November 15, 2022

Nickel prices jumped Tuesday on the news of production setbacks at the troubled Goro nickel mine, which has one of the world’s largest deposits and is partially owned by Trafigura Group and backed by Tesla Motors, reported Bloomberg.

Goro is located in the South Pacific island French territory of New Caledonia. The mine has been forced to curtail production following a leak from its tailings dam — an earth-fill embankment dam used to store byproducts after separating the ore from mining waste. 

A spokesperson from owner Prony Resources said the Goro Mine reported a “limited release of salt-laden liquid” following torrential rains in August. Corrective measures required by local authorities reveal nickel output would be reduced in the fourth quarter. 

The nickel market has seen wild price swings in the last two sessions following reports of an explosion at a nickel factory in Indonesia on Monday, which sent prices skyrocketing 15%, though prices retreated after the owner of the operation denied reports. 

Prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped as high as 7.5% to $31k per ton on Tuesday, hitting the highest level since May. 

Nickel prices trading on the LME have seen increased volatility. In March, the LME halted trading for a week after prices soared 250% in two sessions. 

Brazilian miner Vale SA previously owned Goro. It was sold last year to Prony — a group comprising Trafigura, Agio Global, and the New Caledonian government.

The good news is that “minimum quantities required by our customer contracts will be met, and we expect to be at full capacity again shortly,” Prony said. 

Global supply tightness for the battery-critical making metal comes as electric-vehicle demand soars. This will undoubtedly keep the costs of EVs out of reach for the average person. 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

According to a report from Politico, the Biden administration has been reassuring Ukraine that peace talks with Russia don’t need to happen anytime soon after Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said this winter will provide an opportunity for diplomacy.

Milley said last week that Russia and Ukraine might recognize that victory “is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means.” He expects fighting will slow down this winter, and the moment for peace talks could be “seized.”

Citing unnamed US and Ukrainian officials, the POLITICO report said that US officials have conveyed to Ukraine that Washington was not trying to undercut Kyiv’s stated war goals of driving Russia out of all the territory it has captured. The US also said that just because there may be a pause in fighting this winter, that doesn’t mean peace talks need to happen.

While Milley is calling for peace talks, other high-level US officials are against the idea, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The Politico report said that Sullivan’s National Security Council is most resistant to the idea of talks, although there are a few aides on the NSC pushing for diplomacy.

The report said that there is a “broad sense” within the Pentagon that the winter will provide a chance to reach a political settlement and that senior US military officials don’t believe Ukraine can achieve its war aims, which include expelling Russia from Crimea. But so far, these views have not had an impact on President Biden or his most senior staff.

The talk of diplomacy comes after Russia withdrew from the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, pulling all of its forces from the west bank of the Dnieper River. Pentagon officials said that the situation in the Kherson region is an example of the tough fight ahead, as it will be difficult for Ukraine to launch an offensive across the river.

“Why not start talking about [peace talks] before you throw another 100,000 lives into the abyss?” one US official said in comments to Politico.

While many elements of the Biden administration are resisting the idea of pushing for talks between Ukraine and Russia, there has been an increase in dialogue between Washington and Moscow.

On Monday, CIA Director William Burns met with his Russian counterpart, although the White House stressed the meeting was focused on warnings over the use of nuclear weapons, not a negotiation over Ukraine.

Authored by Jan Jekielek and Masooma Haq via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In what she has called a David versus Goliath battle, New York real estate lawyer Bobbie Anne Cox sued Governor Kathleen Hochul for issuing directives mandating quarantine for people exposed to or infected with highly contagious diseases such as COVID-19. The directives, dubbed “quarantine camp regulations,” have been compared to laws that relocated Japanese during World War II without due process. Cox won the lawsuit on the grounds that Hochul’s regulation was unconstitutional.

In a recent interview on Epoch TV’s American Thought Leaders, Cox told host Jan Jekielek that it’s crucial Americans learn about the U.S. Constitution so that they can prevent similar acts by state and federal governments.

“The constitution is not perfect, but it’s brilliant,” Cox said. Schools should require learning about the U.S. Constitution, “from the little kids all the way up through high school, into college. The constitution was written to keep the government in check. The constitution wasn’t written to keep the people in check.”

Our founding fathers came to this continent fleeing tyranny, Cox said. “They wrote the constitution in such a manner that if it’s followed, there wouldn’t be tyranny on these shores, ever. Yet, here we are, 250 years later, and we’re fighting tyranny.”

It is tyrannical for a government to take power to which it is not entitled, Cox explained. During the pandemic, state and federal governments gave themselves powers the constitution did not give them.

State governors are part of the executive branch of government. As such, she said, “they’re supposed to enforce laws, and their agencies beneath them are supposed to help them enforce laws. They’re not supposed to make laws.”

When a governor such as Hochul takes on powers that properly belong to the legislature, “that’s tyranny,” Cox reiterated.

“The attitude is kind of like, ‘Well, we know we can’t do this, but we’re going to do it anyway.’ And then the theory is, ‘Catch me if you can.’”

Understanding Our Rights

Unconstitutional mandates and regulations have been thrust upon the public, Cox said, because American citizens don’t know their rights. “I think if people understood what their rights are, they would say, ‘Hold on a second, you can’t do that.”

“In the history of mankind, no government has ever taken power from the people, and then just voluntarily given it back.”

Nonetheless, “the people have to demand it back,” Cox said. “The people won’t demand it back unless they know that they have the right to that power. So I think there needs to be an education process in the United States so that people understand, ‘Oh, these are my rights.’”

The Executive Branch Cannot Legislate

At the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns, former Governor Andrew Cuomo was given emergency powers by the New York legislature to implement “directives.” Those emergency powers, according to Cox, essentially gave him legislative powers.

“The legislative branch can’t delegate their lawmaking power to another branch of government, but they did, and for a whole year, Cuomo had this power … He then passed it on to his commissioner of health,” said Cox.

After Cuomo stepped down in August 2021 and Hochul became interim governor, she continued the regulations despite criticism that she was sidestepping the legislature. When Cox learned about this, she was impelled to sue in order to stop the government overreach.

Quarantine Regulation Based on Rejected Bill

Cox sees this type of control by the governor as tyrannical and “wholly unconstitutional” for many reasons, including the fact that the New York legislature rejected the quarantine rule in a bill years before.

“It’s the story of a tyrannical governor and her department of health, doing something that they want to do, but the people don’t want them to do it. And the people’s representatives in the New York state senate and the assembly don’t want them to do it.”

The quarantine camp regulation was based on a bill that was proposed in 2015 by New York state assemblyman Nick Perry (D-Brooklyn) during the Ebola outbreak. The regulation was rejected by the state legislature and withdrawn from consideration, said Cox.

After Cuomo resigned, through a simple vote, Hochul and her advisors issued the directive that ultimately gave the governor and the New York Department of Health the power to lock up anyone they deemed contagious.

“They could have locked you up in your home, or they could have removed you from your home and locked you into a facility of their choosing,” said Cox. There was no restriction on age, proof of sickness or exposure, or time limit to the quarantine.

“There was nothing in the regulation that would allow you to try to negotiate your way out of this,” added Cox, and the regulation does not follow either state or U.S. constitutions because it does not lay out the rights of the person forced into quarantine.

“In the judge’s decision, he actually said [that] this regulation gives lip service to due process,” said Cox. “‘You mention it, but you don’t actually have any due process built in there.’”

“Involuntary detention is a severe deprivation of individual liberty, far more egregious than other health safety measures, such as requiring mask wearing at certain venues,” the court’s opinion read. “Involuntary quarantine may have far-reaching consequences such as loss of income [or employment] and isolation from family.”

The governor’s regulation also conflicted with section 2120 of New York’s public health law, a longstanding regulation. “That tells you how you quarantine somebody if they’re a public health threat,” Cox said. However, the existing law contains multiple due process protections, beginning with a requirement to prove that the individual in question has the disease.

From Real Estate to Constitutional Law

Having worked with clients in property cases against local and state governments, Cox recognized that the government’s mandates were illegal. She said she knew that two weeks of lockdown would not end there.

“I also said to myself, this is completely unconstitutional. He can’t do this. He can’t force people to shut their businesses and stay home,” Cox said.

She immediately started speaking out about the illegitimacy of the lockdowns. She was bombarded by business owners and landlords asking her if the forced closures and rent moratorium were legal, and what they could do to fight back.

“We were seeing small businesses, landlords, people who were just getting decimated by the government.”

Cox started a YouTube channel explaining the rights that the Constitution ensures, but the platform removed her videos. She then moved the channel to Rumble.

Before moving forward with her lawsuit against Hochul, Cox wrestled with the decision to put her business and livelihood on hold. She took the case, convinced that the type of governmental overreach it hoped to stop would spread like “cancer” if not checked.

Getting Ahead of Hochul’s Regulation

Cox did not want to wait until the regulation went into effect and the public was injured by it, so she thought creatively about how to sue and prove the regulation was unconstitutional, she said.

Cox considers herself a Democrat but worked with Republican lawmakers because she believes government overreach is not a partisan issue.

“I’m actually a Democrat … In my mind, this is not a political thing. This is a human rights issue. This is a constitutional issue … This is about being an American, and something people have really forgotten. It’s not people’s fault. I think it’s because we just really don’t teach this in school anymore.”

She asked Senator George Borrello, Assemblyman Chris Tague, and Assemblyman Mike Lawler to join the suit. “They said, ‘Absolutely. We believe in this; we’re going to do it.’”

Ultimately, Cox proved the unconstitutionality of the quarantine camp regulation, but there were many challenges along the way.

Read more here…

Op-Ed by Jerry Hendrix via RealClear Wire,

As the Republican party considers its return to power on Capitol Hill with a very narrow majority in the House of Representatives, it should consider leaders who have the proper self-discipline, political experience and operational background to guide the party during this time of significant political unrest at home and great power competition abroad. Simply put, with the issues of economic recession, and the erosion law and order at home, and the policy of peace through strength for challenges abroad, as well as when factoring into account the fact that the newer, younger membership of the House on both sides of the aisle includes so many veterans of the recent two decades long Global War On Terror, the Republican House leadership team would be well served to include a veteran amongst its ranks to provide the unique perspective associated with that experience and background.

With the recovery of a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives there will be significant changes in the conservative leadership team in the House. Kevin McCarthy of California, who served as Majority Whip during John Boehner’s term as speaker and then majority leader during Paul Ryan’s tenure, will presumably assume the speaker’s gavel after leading the minority party through the past six years of Democratic Party rule, although there are signs of unrest in the ranks due to disappointments at the polls this past week.

Steve Scalise of Louisiana has served as McCarthy’s whip and loyal deputy over the past six years, including during the painful period following his near assassination from a gunshot wound from a Bernie Sanders supporter in 2017. Scalise will almost certainly be elevated to the role of majority leader as McCarthy mounts the rostrum at the center of the well of the House. This will leave the majority whip’s position open at the beginning of a Congress where every Republican vote will be needed. This will require a strong, disciplined hand at the whip.

It must also be noted, and without prejudice, that neither McCarthy nor Scalise have served in the military. Additionally, neither of them has served on the House Armed Services, Intelligence, Appropriations, Foreign Affairs or Veterans Affairs committees that deal with the issues of national security or their adjacencies. McCarthy’s focus has been largely on the Financial Services Committee while Scalise’s area of expertise has been found within the Energy and Commerce Committee. These are important roles, but they also highlight the fact that both men would be well served to have a colleague in the majority whip’s office who is intimately familiar with the nation’s national security challenges.

The competition for the whip position has already commenced and the candidates overall are strong, well-qualified, and respected amongst the conference.

Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who served as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee through the last election cycle, lacks military or broader national security experience. He worked as a lawyer prior to entering the state legislature and entered the House in 2019. In that capacity he has served, like McCarthy, on the Financial Services Committee. Emmer is a solid fiscal conservative who has consistently sought to rein in government spending. Unfortunately, this pursuit caused him to vote against several critical national security bills that sought to expand defense spending as well as protect the nation’s cybersecurity workforce. These votes as well as his rather unique opposition to President Trump’s reimposition of an economic embargo on Cuba suggests that his approach to national security remains more ideological than pragmatic, and diverges from previous eras of great power competition. Overall, he approaches national security with a lawyer’s legalistic eye rather than a veteran’s instinct for the terrain.

Rep. Drew Ferguson of Georgia currently serves as chief deputy whip for the Republican conference and would normally be seen as the natural successor to Scalise. Ferguson, a dentist, entered the House after a hard-fought election and has served on the powerful Ways and Means Committee since. While Ferguson has been a strong supporter of both military modernization and expansion, aside from a “no” vote on the 2021 NDAA, he also lacks service on one of the relevant national security associated committees in the House and the real-world experience that comes with previous active duty in the military. His elevation to the whip position would leave the House without anyone with the fingerspitzengefühl feel for the national security challenges facing the nation.

This leaves Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana as the last remaining contestant for the whip position.

For transparency’s sake, I should say that Banks represents the district where I grew up, although I have not lived there in nearly forty years, but my people know his people, and that matters. Additionally, we are both Navy veterans, and when we see each other, we share more than a few sea stories.

Banks served in the Indiana state legislature and in the naval reserve, deploying as a logistician to Afghanistan, prior to entering the House in 2017. Since then, he has been elevated to the chair of the Republican Study Committee, the internal think-tank for Minority Leader McCarthy and a font of new ideas. Banks serves on the Armed Services and Veterans’ Affairs committees, as well as the Education and Labor Committee, where he has taken a direct and focused interest in strengthening our national security and taking care of our veterans’ community.

Banks has taken a deep interest in the legislative process. It is one thing to vote for a larger Navy, but it is another to author a resolution to build a 426-ship fleet with specific numbers of types of ships assigned to specific strategic objectives. In addition, Banks has either authored or co-sponsored legislation expressly focused on the strategic threat posed by China.

It must be admitted that Banks, in his capacity as the chair of the Republican Study Committee has earned a reputation as a partisan, but the whip position is also a partisan position. However, he has in the past demonstrated a willingness to reach across the aisle, especially when working with fellow former military members to craft real alternative approaches to our nation’s future defense. He and his staff also have built a reputation for rolling up their sleeves and doing the hard work of crafting real legislation. He is a man of disciplined thought and action, as many veterans are.

The Republican Party is assuredly positioned to return to leadership in the House next year, but it will have only a narrow majority and it will be confronted with many key issues challenging the nation. Jim Banks, with his domestic experience on the Education and Labor Committee, as well as his service on the Armed Services and Veterans’ Affairs committees, would substantively add to the Republican House leadership’s policy breadth and depth.

Banks has proven that he can think, act, speak, and lead, and would bring the pragmatic solutions of the Midwest farm country he represents to the House leadership team. Additionally, his addition to the House leadership would be a powerful nod of acknowledgment to the 70-plus veterans who serve in the lower chamber from both parties, a vast majority of whom are young and have served in front line positions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The House Republicans should not pass on the opportunity to place a veteran in leadership.

A freight train derailment and flooding have paralyzed vital transportation networks, completely cutting off Perth and Adelaide from Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. 

Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported dozens of shipping containers scattered across the tracks when a freight train derailed in Victoria’s west on Monday. 

Footage from the incident area shows at least 20 shipping containers piled on top of each other and water beneath the tracks. The location of the crash was about 56 miles from Melbourne. There’s reason to believe months of heavy might have led to track failure. 

The crash has broader implications for the country’s transportation network, as ABC explained:

“It is now blocking the rail line between Melbourne and Adelaide, cutting off Adelaide from the Port of Melbourne.” 

The national broadcaster then pointed out on a map that another critical rail line called Broken Hill was out of order due to heavy flooding, which means: 

“No trains are able to go east to west in the whole country. We were hanging by a single thread, which has now been severed.” 

Here’s a map showing the east-west train connection severed. 

ABC suggests supply chain misery could move even higher as the east-west train lines were already congested before the weather-related disasters. 

The east-west train lines are, according to government statistics, the busiest freight lines in the country. They carry all sorts of goods from Adelaide and Perth to Sydney and Melbourne.

The link between Adelaide and the Port of Melbourne is especially important. Many container ships are extremely large and don’t stop in Adelaide. So South Australia relies on goods being unloaded in Melbourne and brought along the rails. It is a 12-hour journey, usually.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau said it would take time to rebuild the rail line, a possible indication that supply chain disruptions are imminent. 

Despite ABC blaming “climate change,” we must note the heavy rains are due to an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon called La Nina. And remember, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has stated: 

“El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring climate patterns and humans have no direct ability to influence their onset, intensity or duration.” 

What’s likely to happen is all freight that would typically be hauled on rail networks will have to switch to the road, and even then, there will be logistical issues due to a limited supply of trucking availabilities. 

On Monday the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for Russia to pay war reparations for its invasion of Ukraine, now nine months in. This is to include the billions of dollars in damage and destruction, as well as reparations for loss of life. 

The UN resolution states that the Russian Federation “must bear the legal consequences of all its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for injury, including any damage, caused by such acts.”

It further seeks to establish “an international mechanism for reparation for damage, loss or injury” as a result of the war, and further calls for an “international register” to document evidence and claims of “damage, loss or injury” to Ukrainians and public buildings and entities.

In a Monday night video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the UN measure, saying: “The reparations that Russia will have to pay… are now part of the international legal reality.”

Western officials have from near the start of the invasion floated the idea of using seized Russian assets abroad due to sanctions enforcement to create a reparations fund for rebuilding Ukraine. 

The Kremlin was quick to condemn the UN resolution: 

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday said Russia stands “categorically against” the proposal, adding that Moscow would do “everything possible” to stop the West from seizing its frozen international reserves or “plundering” them to pay for reparations to Ukraine.

The draft resolution passed in the UNGA with a clear majority and will now proceed to the next stage (a Generally Assembly plenary, likely next month). 

Out of 193 members…

• 94 countries voted in favor
• 14 against 
• 73 nations abstained

The breakdown of how countries voted is along familiar geopolitical fault lines…

Member states voting “no” (or a position seen by the West as “in favor of Russia”) …

• The Bahamas
• Belarus
• Central African Republic
• China
• Cuba
• North Korea
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia
• Islamic Republic of Iran
• Mali
• Nicaragua
• Russian Federation
• Syrian Arab Republic
• Zimbabwe

Below: the majority of countries (in green) voted “yes” – while many abstained…

Notably India was an absention.

The UN website described the words of Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya as follows, “The Ambassador outlined the impact of the Russian war on his country, including bombings targeting residential buildings and infrastructure, the demolition of nearly half of the power grid and utilities, massive displacement, and atrocities such as murder, rape, torture and forced deportations.”

In considering all of the above war atrocities, one wonders, where was the big Western push at the UN to make Washington pay war reparations over the 2003 “shock and awe” regime change invasion of Iraq, which by some estimates killed up to one million people?