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Turkey Stocks Soar On State Support As Quake Deaths Surpass 40,000

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Turkey Stocks Soar On State Support As Quake Deaths Surpass 40,000

After a week-long suspension, Turkish stocks soared Wednesday after the country’s sovereign wealth fund supported financial markets to prevent further declines following last week’s twin earthquakes. The death toll in Turkey and neighboring Syria has surpassed 40,000. 

Here are the top headlines via Bloomberg of the intervention to save financial markets: 

  • Turkey Stocks Surge as State Support Underwrites Reopening Boost
  • Turkey Injects Billions of Liras to Prop Up Stocks Before Open
  • Turkey Wealth Fund to Support Equities With New Mechanism
  • Turkey Set to Temporarily Suspend Some Gold Imports 
  • Turkey Plans Tax Waiver for Share Buybacks on Stock Exchange

The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index jumped 9.82% today, as the main equity benchmark recovered much of its losses since the twin earthquakes rocked the country’s southeast region on Feb. 6. 

Bloomberg, citing officials with direct knowledge of the matter, stated that Turkey’s sovereign wealth fund supported equities in a new internal mechanism to suppress market volatility. 

“All the measures taken seem to have been successful in boosting the equity market.”

“The market reaction for now says most of the demands of the market players are met,” said Burak Isyar, the head of equity research at ICBC Turkey Investment in Istanbul. 

Another mechanism to support stocks was Turkish firms’ announcement of large share buyback plans. Turkish Airlines, Erdemir, and Isbank debuted new buyback programs. State-owned lenders Vakifbank and Halkbank boosted their existing programs. 

In New York, iShares MSCI Turkey Exchange Traded Fund, the largest ETF concentrated on Turkish stocks, jumped 8% yesterday and is up 6% in premarket trading. 

Meanwhile, the number of dead in Turkey and Syria crossed a grim mark today, surpassing 40,000. Tens of thousands of people are still missing as quakes leveled large swaths of ten cities. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 07:45

IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine

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IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the world needs to be prepared to better handle shocks and “the unthinkable” in a post-COVID-19 world and in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Georgieva made the comments during a World Government Summit panel hosted by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Dubai on Feb. 14, where she also referenced the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria that have killed more than 36,000 people.

Asked how “difficult” this year is going to be, Georgieva replied that the world economy is still “in a very difficult place and global growth is slowing down in 2023 but it may be a turning point,” pointing to inflation declining in some countries.

“What we are very concerned [about] is one, the unexpected,” Georgieva said.

“What COVID and the war taught us is we live in a more shock-prone world. What the earthquake in Turkey and Syria taught us is, to think of the unthinkable.

“We all have to change our mindset to be much more agile and much more oriented towards building resilience at all levels, so we can handle the shocks better,” Georgieva added, noting that resistance comes in the form of ensuring that the very “fabric” of each country and its society is strong.

IMF Plays ‘Stabilizing Role’ in Ukraine

Elsewhere on Tuesday, Georgieva said the IMF has to play a “stabilizing role” in the war in Ukraine, adding that the nation will need around $40 billion to $48 billion for the economy to function this year.

According to Georgieva, who told the audience that her brother is married to a Ukrainian, the IMF has been working with Ukraine to provide it with advice on how to run a “war economy” since Russia’s invasion began in February last year.

She added that the IMF has financed two packages worth $2.7 billion of its own resources to Ukraine since the war began. That is on top of aid provided by Western nations such as the United States.

In December 2022, Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s vice president for Europe and Central Asia, told the Austrian newspaper Die Presse that around 500 billion euros (about $533 billion) alone would be needed to rebuild Ukraine’s damaged or destroyed infrastructure.

In September, the World Bank, in a joint assessment with the Ukraine government and the European Commission, estimated that the current cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine amounts to $349 billion.

Georgieva’s comments come shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with senior members of JPMorgan Chase in Kyiv to discuss the creation of a platform aimed at attracting private capital investment to rebuild Ukraine and aid with postwar economic growth.

NATO Says Ukraine Needs More Ammunition

The Ukrainian government and the banking giant had earlier signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the matter, under which JPMorgan will advise the Ukrainian government on issues relating to financial stabilization, the development and coordination of strategies for refinancing and debt restructuring, obtaining sovereign credit ratings, and the digitization of the economy, among other things.

On Feb. 13, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on more allies to provide more ammunition to Ukraine after previously saying that Russian forces had already launched a new offensive ahead of the one-year anniversary of the conflict.

“We see no signs that President Putin is preparing for peace. What we see is the opposite, he is preparing for more war, for new offensives and new attacks,” Stoltenberg told reporters.

“This has become a grinding war of attrition, and therefore it’s also a battle of logistics. … When it comes to artillery, we need ammunition, we need spare parts, we need maintenance, we need all the logistics to ensure that we are able to sustain these weapons systems,” he added.

In response to Stoltenberg’s comments, the Kremlin accused NATO of being an organization that is “hostile” toward Russia and becoming increasingly involved in the war in Ukraine.

“It is trying its best to make its involvement in the conflict around Ukraine as clear as possible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 07:20

Automated Vehicles With No Steering Wheel Or Pedals Hit US Roadways

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Automated Vehicles With No Steering Wheel Or Pedals Hit US Roadways

Driverless vehicles without steering wheel or pedals are already hitting US roadways and could revolutionize how people move about. There’s already one brand of autonomous vehicles on US roadways, with another two companies working to debut their automated transportation services soon. 

In a note released Tuesday, BloombergNEF analyst Siong-Hu Wong covers the top three autonomous vehicles without steering wheels set for commercialization. 

The first is Amazon-owned Zoox’s electric VH6 shuttles are already operating on California public roads. The robotaxi service is only available to employees for now but expects approvals by the state government will allow the service to be offered to the general public near-term. 

In February, General Motors-backed Cruise received permission from California’s Department of Motor Vehicles to test its Origin shuttle on roadways. 

Another robotaxi is Waymo’s Zeekr M-Vision, which will enter production next year. The Zeekr is similar to the other robotaxi-makers. 

Automated vehicles, or the shuttles above, could be the biggest thing to hit the auto industry ever. It will entirely change the way people get around. 

However, the dystopic thing about this all is that Americans must give up owning cars and instead rely on robotaxi companies for transportation. The problem with that is control. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 06:55

Americans’ Tax Refunds Are Nearly 11 Percent Smaller This Year, Early IRS Data Show

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Americans’ Tax Refunds Are Nearly 11 Percent Smaller This Year, Early IRS Data Show

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Early IRS data show that Americans’ tax refunds so far this year are smaller than they were last year, a phenomenon that was predicted by the agency and tax experts.

A 1040 form used by U.S. taxpayers to file an annual income tax return in a file photo. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

As of Feb. 3, the average refund amount stood at $1,963, or down about 10.8 percent from the year-ago period, when it was $2,201 on average, the IRS data show.

The agency’s data also show that more refunds have been given out. As of Feb. 3, 6.9 million direct deposit refunds have been reported, compared with 4.46 million for the same time period last year—a 38.7 percent increase year over year.

However, more tax returns have been processed so far in 2023. About 19 million have been processed as of Feb. 3, compared with the 13 million that were processed for the year-ago period, representing a 29 percent increase year over year, according to the agency.

I would argue that people’s tax refunds are going to be less because of the fact that they are not going to get these special pandemic provisions anymore,” Eric Bronnenkant, chief of tax at Betterment, told Yahoo Finance in a recent interview. “Obviously, everyone’s situation is unique, but on average refunds are going to be smaller due to less stimulus.”

Other tax experts and the IRS itself have stated for months that taxpayers should expect smaller returns on their 2022 taxes. The reason is that certain pandemic-related tax breaks and options aren’t available any longer.

“Refunds may be smaller in 2023,” the IRS warned last November. “Taxpayers will not receive an additional stimulus payment with a 2023 tax refund because there were no Economic Impact Payments for 2022. In addition, taxpayers who don’t itemize and take the standard deduction won’t be able to deduct their charitable contributions.

The IRS has noted that for 2022’s filing season, the increased Child Tax Credit (CTC), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and Child and Dependent Care Credit applied. But those credit amounts have gone back to the pre-pandemic amounts.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 06:30

Lufthansa Grounds All Flights After Severed Broadband Cable

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Lufthansa Grounds All Flights After Severed Broadband Cable

Germany’s flagship airline carrier Lufthansa grounded all flights Wednesday because of a severed broadband cable, according to Bloomberg.

A Lufthansa spokesman said the airline’s ground systems, including the check-in operations, were affected. Initially, multiple news outlets said German authorities were investigating whether the IT failure was due to a cyberattack. 

But moments ago, Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with the matter, said construction workers in the Frankfurt region cut a Deutsche Telekom broadband cable and caused the widespread IT failure. 

“Our technicians are working flat out to fix the issue,” Peter Kespohl, a spokesman for Deutsche Telekom, said. He outlined there is no timeline for how long the repairs would take. 

Lufthansa’s airlines include Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Swiss. It also operates low-cost carrier Eurowings as well as other smaller regional airlines. 

Some passengers tweeted videos and photos of them being stranded at German airports. Instead of using computers, passengers had to check in using pen and paper. The airline also was unable to process their luggage digitally. 

That construction worker is probably going to get fired. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 06:20

These Are The World’s Most (And Least) Powerful Passports In 2023

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These Are The World’s Most (And Least) Powerful Passports In 2023

Depending on your passport, travel can be as simple as just booking flights, finding a hotel, and, then simply going.

But, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, for many across the world, it’s not that easy – a number of passport holders need to obtain a travel/tourist visa prior to arrival. These visas typically require approval from the destination country’s government that can take weeks or months.

Japanese passport holders, for example, are able to visit 193 countries without pre-approval (nearly every country on Earth). Afghans, on the other hand, can only visit 27 countries with the same level of ease.

This ranking uses data from Henley & Partners, which determines the number of countries to which a passport holder has visa-free access.

The World’s Passports

First let’s look at every country’s position in the ranking in the table below:

Rank Passport Number of Countries Allowing Visa-Free Access
#1 🇯🇵 Japan 193
#1 🇸🇬 Singapore 193
#3 🇰🇷 South Korea 192
#4 🇩🇪 Germany 191
#4 🇪🇸 Spain 191
#6 🇫🇮 Finland 190
#6 🇮🇹 Italy 190
#6 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 190
#9 🇦🇹 Austria 189
#9 🇩🇰 Denmark 189
#9 🇳🇱 Netherlands 189
#9 🇸🇪 Sweden 189
#13 🇫🇷 France 188
#13 🇮🇪 Ireland 188
#13 🇵🇹 Portugal 188
#13 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 188
#17 🇧🇪 Belgium 187
#17 🇨🇿 Czechia 187
#17 🇳🇿 New Zealand 187
#17 🇳🇴 Norway 187
#17 🇨🇭 Switzerland 187
#17 🇺🇸 United States 187
#23 🇦🇺 Australia 186
#23 🇨🇦 Canada 186
#23 🇬🇷 Greece 186
#23 🇲🇹 Malta 186
#27 🇭🇺 Hungary 185
#27 🇵🇱 Poland 185
#29 🇱🇹 Lithuania 184
#29 🇸🇰 Slovakia 184
#31 🇱🇻 Latvia 183
#31 🇸🇮 Slovenia 183
#33 🇪🇪 Estonia 182
#34 🇮🇸 Iceland 181
#35 🇲🇾 Malaysia 180
#36 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein 179
#37 🇨🇾 Cyprus 178
#37 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 178
#39 🇷🇴 Romania 176
#40 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 175
#40 🇨🇱 Chile 175
#40 🇭🇷 Croatia 175
#40 🇲🇨 Monaco 175
#44 🇭🇰 Hong Kong (SAR China) 172
#45 🇦🇷 Argentina 171
#46 🇧🇷 Brazil 170
#46 🇸🇲 San Marino 170
#48 🇦🇩 Andorra 169
#49 🇧🇳 Brunei 167
#50 🇧🇧 Barbados 162
#51 🇮🇱 Israel 160
#51 🇲🇽 Mexico 160
#53 🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis 156
#54 🇧🇸 Bahamas 155
#55 🇻🇦 Vatican City 154
#56 🇸🇨 Seychelles 153
#56 🇺🇾 Uruguay 153
#58 🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 151
#59 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda 150
#59 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 150
#59 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 150
#62 🇲🇺 Mauritius 146
#63 🇱🇨 St. Lucia 146
#63 🇹🇼 Taiwan 146
#65 🇬🇩 Grenada 145
#66 🇩🇲 Dominica 144
#66 🇲🇴 Macao (SAR China) 144
#66 🇺🇦 Ukraine 144
#69 🇵🇦 Panama 143
#70 🇵🇾 Paraguay 141
#71 🇷🇸 Serbia 137
#72 🇵🇪 Peru 136
#73 🇨🇴 Colombia 133
#73 🇬🇹 Guatemala 133
#73 🇭🇳 Honduras 133
#76 🇸🇻 El Salvador 132
#77 🇼🇸 Samoa 131
#77 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands 131
#79 🇹🇴 Tonga 129
#80 🇻🇪 Venezuela 128
#81 🇳🇮 Nicaragua 127
#81 🇹🇻 Tuvalu 127
#83 🇲🇰 North Macedonia 125
#84 🇲🇪 Montenegro 124
#85 🇰🇮 Kiribati 123
#86 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands 122
#87 🇲🇩 Moldova 120
#88 🇵🇼 Palau Islands 119
#89 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 118
#89 🇫🇲 Micronesia 118
#89 🇷🇺 Russia 118
#92 🇦🇱 Albania 115
#92 🇬🇪 Georgia 115
#94 🇹🇷 Türkiye 111
#95 🇿🇦 South Africa 106
#96 🇧🇿 Belize 102
#97 🇶🇦 Qatar 100
#98 🇰🇼 Kuwait 97
#98 🇻🇺 Vanuatu 97
#100 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste 94
#101 🇪🇨 Ecuador 92
#102 🇲🇻 Maldives 89
#102 🇳🇷 Nauru 89
#104 🇧🇭 Bahrain 87
#104 🇫🇯 Fiji 87
#104 🇬🇾 Guyana 87
#107 🇧🇼 Botswana 86
#107 🇯🇲 Jamaica 86
#109 🇴🇲 Oman 82
#109 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea 82
#109 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 82
#112 🇨🇳 China 81
#113 🇧🇾 Belarus 79
#113 🇧🇴 Bolivia 79
#113 🇹🇭 Thailand 79
#116 🇳🇦 Namibia 78
#117 🇱🇸 Lesotho 77
#117 🇸🇷 Suriname 77
#119 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 75
#120 🇸🇿 Eswatini 74
#121 🇲🇼 Malawi 73
#122 🇮🇩 Indonesia 72
#122 🇰🇪 Kenya 72
#124 🇹🇿 Tanzania 71
#124 🇹🇳 Tunisia 71
#126 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 70
#126 🇿🇲 Zambia 70
#128 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 69
#129 🇬🇲 The Gambia 68
#130 🇵🇭 Philippines 67
#131 🇺🇬 Uganda 66
#132 🇦🇲 Armenia 65
#132 🇨🇻 Cape Verde Islands 65
#132 🇲🇦 Morocco 65
#132 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 65
#136 🇨🇺 Cuba 64
#136 🇬🇭 Ghana 64
#136 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 64
#139 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 63
#140 🇲🇳 Mongolia 61
#140 🇲🇿 Mozambique 61
#142 🇧🇯 Benin 60
#142 🇮🇳 India 60
#142 🇷🇼 Rwanda 60
#145 🇸🇹 Sao Tome and Principe 59
#145 🇹🇯 Tajikistan 59
#145 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 59
#148 🇲🇷 Mauritania 58
#149 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 57
#150 🇨🇮 Cote d’Ivoire 56
#150 🇬🇦 Gabon 56
#150 🇸🇳 Senegal 56
#153 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea 55
#153 🇬🇳 Guinea 55
#153 🇻🇳 Vietnam 55
#156 🇰🇭 Cambodia 54
#156 🇲🇬 Madagascar 54
#156 🇹🇬 Togo 54
#159 🇪🇬 Egypt 53
#159 🇯🇴 Jordan 53
#159 🇲🇱 Mali 53
#159 🇳🇪 Niger 53
#163 🇩🇿 Algeria 52
#163 🇧🇹 Bhutan 52
#163 🇨🇫 Central African Republic 52
#163 🇹🇩 Chad 52
#163 🇰🇲 Comoros 52
#163 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau 52
#163 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan 52
#170 🇨🇲 Cameroon 51
#171 🇦🇴 Angola 50
#171 🇱🇦 Laos 50
#173 🇧🇮 Burundi 49
#173 🇨🇬 Congo (Rep.) 49
#173 🇱🇷 Liberia 49
#176 🇩🇯 Djibouti 48
#176 🇭🇹 Haiti 48
#178 🇲🇲 Myanmar 47
#179 🇪🇹 Ethiopia 46
#179 🇳🇬 Nigeria 46
#181 🇪🇷 Eritrea 44
#181 🇮🇷 Iran 44
#181 🇸🇸 South Sudan 44
#184 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo 42
#184 🇸🇩 Sudan 42
#186 🇽🇰 Kosovo 41
#186 🇱🇧 Lebanon 41
#186 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 41
#189 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 40
#189 🇱🇾 Libya 40
#189 🇰🇵 North Korea 40
#192 🇵🇸 Palestine 38
#193 🇳🇵 Nepal 37
#194 🇸🇴 Somalia 35
#195 🇾🇪 Yemen 34
#196 🇵🇰 Pakistan 32
#197 🇸🇾 Syria 30
#198 🇮🇶 Iraq 29
#199 Afghanistan 27

Visas are imposed by some countries to make it easier to track visitors, allowing a country to assess whether said passport-holder may be a risk for illegal immigration, crime, acts of terror, or covert surveillance.

For example, both Russia and China require American passport holders to obtain visas prior to travel, and vice versa.

The Most Powerful Passports

When it comes to the most powerful passports, most of the top 20 are issued by countries in Asia or Europe, with the exception of New Zealand and the United States.

Due to multiple ties in the rankings the U.S. technically ranks 17th, having visa-free access to 187 countries, on par with Norway, New Zealand, and Switzerland.

Ranking 66th, Ukraine’s passport has actually seen drastic improvement over the last decade, currently getting visa-free access to 144 countries. It has yet to be seen how this will change in the wake of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

The Least Powerful Passports

Many of least powerful passports come out of war-torn and politically unstable nations. As visas for travel are typically required to counter illicit activity, these nations are often flagged whether justly or not.

One immediate standout among the least powerful passports is North Korea. The insular nation has visa-free access to 40 countries, ranking it above eight other passports on the list.

Most North Koreans who travel abroad do so only in extremely special circumstances for work, study, or athletic competitions. Leisure travel out of North Korea does not happen, but technically, North Koreans can visit countries like Haiti, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Palestine, and Kyrgyzstan, among others without a visa.

The Biggest Gainers & Losers Over Time

From a big picture standpoint, the world’s travelers have seen their access improve significantly over the last 10 years. If you’re a citizen of the UAE, for example, your prospects for visa-free travel have improved by 100+ countries over the last decade.

Here’s a closer look at 15 countries with the greatest change in visa-free access:

Rank Country 2013 Visa-Free Access 2023 Visa-Free Access 10 Year Change
#1 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 72 178 +106
#2 🇨🇴 Colombia 63 133 +70
#3 🇺🇦 Ukraine 77 144 +67
#4 🇲🇩 Moldova 59 120 +61
#5 🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 92 151 +59
#6 🇩🇲 Dominica 87 144 +57
#6 🇬🇩 Grenada 88 145 +57
#8 🇵🇪 Peru 80 136 +56
#9 🇬🇪 Georgia 60 115 +55
#10 🇱🇨 St. Lucia 94 146 +52
#11 🇼🇸 Samoa 81 131 +50
#11 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 100 150 +50
#13 🇹🇴 Tonga 80 129 +49
#14 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands 84 131 +47
#15 🇭🇷 Croatia 129 175 +46

On the other hand, other countries have fared poorly, with some actually losing access to destinations since 2013. Yemen and Syria are tied for first place, having lost visa-free access to nine countries over the last 10 years.

Here’s a look at 15 countries who experienced the biggest negative change:

Rank Country 2013 Visa-Free Access 2023 Visa-Free Access 10 Year Change
#1 🇾🇪 Yemen 43 34 -9
#1 🇸🇾 Syria 39 30 -9
#3 🇳🇬 Nigeria 48 46 -2
#3 🇮🇶 Iraq 31 29 -2
#5 🇰🇵 North Korea 41 40 -1
#5 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 41 40 -1
#5 🇦🇫 Afghanistan 28 27 -1
#8 🇻🇪 Venezuela 128 128 0
#8 🇬🇲 The Gambia 68 68 0
#8 🇵🇰 Pakistan 32 32 0
#8 🇳🇪 Niger 53 53 0
#8 🇳🇵 Nepal 37 37 0
#8 🇲🇱 Mali 53 53 0
#14 🇹🇬 Togo 53 54 +1
#14 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 63 64 +1

Looking at the tables above, it’s apparent that the world has generally become more open in recent years.

Overall, the power of a passport is almost directly reflective of the political state of the world. World powers and rich nations typically have free flow of travel, but those facing instability or war are often also face barriers when wanting to go abroad.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 05:45

Chinese Gold Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2018

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Chinese Gold Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2018

Via SchiffGold.com,

China imported 1,343 tons of gold in 2022, the highest import level since 2018. Total gold imports for the year were up 64% over 2021.

China ranks as the world’s biggest gold consumer.

Gold demand in China picked up during the last half of the year as the government relaxed some COVID restrictions. China imported 157 tons of gold in December to close out a strong H2.

The World Gold Council called it “a tale of two halves.”

On-and-off lockdowns in major cities during the first half suppressed local gold demand and imports. As COVID-controlling measures eased and the local gold price premium rose to a multi-year high, imports during the second half jumped. “

According to the WGC, strength in the Chinese gold market continued into January. The Shanghai-London gold price premium charted a mild rebound, putting a stop to the declining trend since last October. Stronger gold demand during January was key.

A recovery in the Chinese economy after it was strangled by government COVID restrictions helped drive the rebound in the gold market. China experienced a COVID peak in December. According to the World Gold Council, Chinese economic activities revived in January. That drove a boom in the gold market.

According to the China Gold Association, during the 15-day period from the Chinese New Year day to the Spring Lantern Festival, Chinese gold consumption was up by 18% year-on-year.

Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totaled 140 tons in January. That was a modest month-on-month decline of 2 tons and 25% lower than January 2022. But the lower number was primarily due to the 2023 Chinese New Year holiday that limited January to just 16 trading days. That was the fewest since 2012. When compared with previous Chinese New Year months, January’s withdrawal total was 12% higher than the 10-year average.

As we’ve reported, the People’s Bank of China resumed official gold purchases in November. That continued into January, with the Chinese central bank adding another 15 tons to its reserves. Gold now accounts for 3.7% of China’s total reserves.

The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent. Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.

There has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

If this apparent rebound in the Chinese gold market continues into 2023, it will drive overall global gold demand higher. Gold demand grew by 18% to 4,741 tons in 2022, the highest demand in 11 years.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 05:00

OPEC Output Drops As Saudi Production Falls By 156,000 Bpd

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OPEC Output Drops As Saudi Production Falls By 156,000 Bpd

By Josh Owens of Oilprice.com

Crude oil production from all 13 OPEC members slid by 49,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January from December as top producer Saudi Arabia slashed output by 156,000 bpd, OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Tuesday.   

OPEC’s crude oil production in January fell by 49,000 bpd from December to average 28.88 million bpd, according to secondary sources in OPEC’s report. 

Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer and de facto leader of the cartel, pumped 10.319 million bpd in January, down by 156,000 bpd month on month, and more than 100,000 bpd below its quota of 10.478 million bpd as part of the OPEC+ agreement, set out at the October meeting and valid from November 2022 through December 2023, or until OPEC+ decides otherwise. 

A Bloomberg survey found earlier this month that OPEC’s crude oil production fell in January due to cuts by Saudi Arabia which may have been steeper than the Kingdom’s quota. 

Saudi Arabia, however, self-reported to OPEC that its crude oil production averaged 10.453 million bpd in January, up by 17,000 bpd from December. 

According to OPEC’s secondary sources, Nigeria and Angola boosted their production the most, by 65,000 bpd and 47,000 bpd, respectively. But these producers are among the biggest laggards in their OPEC+ targets—they continue to pump well below their quotas. 

The monthly Reuters survey pegged OPEC’s January production nearly in line with the OPEC figures from secondary sources reported today—production at 28.87 million bpd, down by 50,000 bpd from December. 

The 10 OPEC members that are part of the OPEC+ collective target production were estimated to have produced around 920,000 bpd below the January target, per the Reuters survey. 

Going forward, OPEC and OPEC+ don’t plan to change the course in oil production targets after Russia announced last week a 500,000 bpd cut in its output for March. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 03:30

Where Is This “Climate Crisis” That Activists Keep Talking About?

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Where Is This “Climate Crisis” That Activists Keep Talking About?

Climate change hysteria has been an ongoing point of social contention since at least the 1980s.  For the past 40 years, western countries have been relentlessly bombarded with global warming propaganda and predictions of an environmental cataclysm.  Many people spent their formative childhoods and school years being indoctrinated with tales of oblivion – A world in which the oceans rise hundreds of feet and land masses are swallowed by the waves.  A world in which exponentially rising temperatures create havoc with the weather as millions die from hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding and drought.  

As many of us now know, all of these claims ended up being false.  The glaciers and polar ice caps never melted.  The land is not covered by the seas.  The only famine today is a result of economic disaster, not climate disaster.  And, most endangered species have not disappeared from the planet.  But, climate scientists chasing billions of dollars in funding from governments and globalist think tanks still say the weather Apocalypse is coming; they were wrong for 40 years, but we should trust them now.  The “debate is over” they say, and we must defer to the “experts.”

But where is the evidence of this climate crisis that these well funded scientists and activists keep talking about?  Where are the weather effects?  One can see the very tangible results of our ongoing economic crisis; inflation and high prices, floundering consumers relying on credit cards, mass layoffs in the tech industry spreading to other sectors, etc.  People are experiencing the downturn and they can witness the consequences for themselves.  If the climate cult wants people to take them seriously, they will have to show some kind of visible proof that global warming is real and a legitimate threat.  

The problem is, they have no proof, and so they are forced to dishonestly connect every single bad weather event to “climate change” as a means to frighten the public.  Let’s look at the real weather data and see if supposedly dangerous man-made carbon emissions are somehow contributing to weather calamity.  

The US is often cited as a primary carbon polluter (even though nations like China produce 30% of global carbon emissions while the US produces only 14%).  Let’s look at a track record of US weather data and see if we can find signs of impending disaster.  If the problem is global, then it should certainly be visible in US weather as much as any other country.  

How about hurricanes?  Every time a hurricane hits the Gulf Coast the mainstream media rants about climate change as the cause.  But has there been a significant increase in hurricanes in the US?  No, there has not according to long term data.  Storms are forming at a rate consistent with the historic record

   

What about major flooding events?  Has there been more downpours and raging rivers?  No, there has not.  Flooding events are not happening at a greater frequency or severity today than they have in past decades.  Even climate scientists are forced to admit that US and global flood damage has been in decline for decades.  Data of damage as a proportion of GDP shows this.

Does this mean we are facing increasing drought conditions?  Surely, global warming is causing significant damage through loss of rainfall?  Nope, that’s not happening either.  The worst droughts in recent US history occurred in the 1930s and 1950s

Maybe we can see a noticeable shift in tornadoes and sever weather inland?  Are there more deadly tornadoes today than decades ago?  No, there are not.  In fact, dangerous tornadoes have been declining.  

Climate change hysteria often relies on the theory of temperature “tipping points” as a basis for their arguments.  Official temp data only goes back to the 1880s, giving us a tiny window to view climate and compare data from today with the data from the past.  According to the NOAA, global temps have risen less than 1°C in 100 years.  They assert that it only takes a 1.5°C increase to trigger a “tipping point” event that could destroy the Earth as we know it.  There is no evidence to support tipping point theory, nor is there a historic precedent.  Certainly there is no evidence in the weather, and skeptics are having a difficult time finding any indications that a catastrophe is on the horizon.

If anything, the data proves that man-made carbon emissions have no effect on weather events.  So, if we are on the verge of global warming annihilation, it’s not because human industry caused it.  

The truth is, climate change has become a religious ideology, an extension of Earth worship based on faith rather than facts.  And like every religion, the climate cult needs an Apocalypse mythology, an end of the world image to keep the flock in line.  Every decade they conjure up new tales of inevitable destruction unless we follow their rules and bow to their whims.  It is a sad attempt to co-opt science as a tool for zealotry.         

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 02:45

The French Pension War

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The French Pension War

Authored by Gabriël Moens via The Epoch Times,

When a million people protest on the streets of Paris and most major French cities, you know there is a serious problem in French society…

The protests, which had been going on for four days, culminated on Feb. 11 in Paris, where reportedly half a million people participated. The vitriol directed at the president during these protests was uncivilised and contemptuous of government reform proposals.

Reminiscent of the Yellow Vest Revolution in 2018, which was initially directed at a hike in the price of fuel, it soon morphed into a demand to raise the minimum net wage in France, which is now around €1,679 (US$1,800) per month.

The recent proposal, which earned the wrath of the protestors, concerns President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the pension age from 62 to 64. It is a response to the dire situation of the French pension system.

In France, retirees might be paid 50 per cent of their income, with a maximum of €41,136 annually. The state scheme is financed by “social security contributions”—a payroll tax that burdens French businesses.

It could be argued that the French president’s proposal constitutes a justifiable attempt at containing the burgeoning cost of the pension scheme, which otherwise would become unsustainable.

That the pension scheme is economically untenable is an unavoidable consequence of changes in French demographics.

A protester holds a placard reading “Macron pensions, it’s no!” during a demonstration on the fourth day of nationwide rallies organised since the start of the year against a deeply unpopular pensions overhaul, in Paris, on Feb. 11, 2023. (Christophe Archambault/AFP via Getty Images)

In 1910, when the first pension law came into effect, life expectancy was 51.3 years, whereas now it is 82.4 years. Also, the population has increased exponentially since 1910 and now stands at around 65 million, compared to around 39 million in 1910.

The present situation means that the younger generation, who make up a much smaller percentage of the population, has to support an ever-increasing number of older people. From an economic point of view, the present retirement age is unsustainable.

People Hold Onto Their Privileges

The French protests disclose that once a privilege has been extended to people, it is exceedingly difficult to remove it, and it becomes nearly impossible to attempt reform. In Western democracies, it appears that people have lost the ability to distinguish between a “privilege” and a “right.”

A “right” exists independently of any societal consideration unless it conflicts with the right of others, but a “privilege” is merely a temporary benefit extended to people, and the legislature could repeal it.

An example of people’s inability to distinguish between the two can be seen in the blockade of French highways in 2015. French farmers used to the “privilege” of receiving high prices for their agricultural products, blockaded roads from Germany and Spain to stop the importation of foreign meat, vegetables, and dairy products to protest the falling prices for their own products due to cheap imports.

Angelique Chrisafis, writing in The Guardian, described these protests in the summer of 2015 as “a summer of agricultural discontent.”

In 2005, Elise Feller argued an article: “French wage earners today are so strongly attached to their retirement system that they react viscerally whenever it is called into question. Many commentators accuse them of being incapable of reform, willing to go to any length to preserve their retirement privileges.”

The current protests certainly confirm the validity of Feller’s opinion. Indeed, television stations broadcast interviews with enraged protestors who asked rebelliously, “why should I work beyond 62?”

Protesters attend a demonstration on the fourth day of nationwide rallies organised since the start of the year against a deeply unpopular pensions overhaul in Paris on Feb. 11, 2023. (Christophe Archambault/AFP via Getty Images)

Big Government, Small People

Many younger people joined the protests in the name of “solidarity,” even though they disproportionally carry the burden of financing France’s pension scheme.

But the protests also disclose another and ultimately more dangerous societal development. The expectation that people will be able to benefit from the government’s largesse has facilitated a climate of dependency and diminished the people’s will to contribute to the nation’s economic well-being.

Apart from the fact that meaningful work gives people a sense of purpose and fulfils an aspiration to realise their potential, it could also extend life expectancy and healthy living.

Indeed, boredom and loneliness are often unintended consequences of retirement that may well lead to premature death and poverty.

Onlookers gather around a car in a fire on the sidelines of a demonstration on the fourth day of nationwide rallies organised since the start of the year against a deeply unpopular pensions overhaul, in Paris, on Feb. 11, 2023. (Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images)

As people still want to achieve their life’s objectives, reliance on government welfare may well create an army of discontented retirees dependent on government handouts.

It is a social welfare system that elevates the all-powerful state at the expense of people, who will gladly grasp any benefit that comes their way instead of taking their life’s destiny into their own hands. Such a mentality enables governments to treat people like children in a nursery.

Hence, if these ruminations on the welfare state have any validity, an extension of the pensionable age to 64 (or later) appears to be the only way to reduce the incidence of government dependency and to sanitise the pension scheme that otherwise would become unsustainable.

Pension Issues in Other Countries

Of course, the French pension problem is not unique in Europe. For example, neighbouring Belgium has tried to reform its pension system for the last 30 years.

Each incoming government pledges to reform the pension system, but they abandon these lofty proposals when they discover the complexity of the system and the unpalatable electoral consequences of any reform.

However, at present, the pensionable retirement age in Belgium is 65, gradually increasing to 67 for those retiring on or after Feb. 1, 2030.

In Australia, there is also a debate, especially at the time of the delivery of the Budget, about the sustainability of its pension scheme. But the problem is not nearly as cantankerous as in Europe.

The absence of nastiness may well be a consequence of the valuable reform of former Prime Minister Paul Keating, who introduced a superannuation scheme. While the super scheme comes with its own set of problems, it at least enables people to look after themselves when they retire. Only the very needy have to rely on a government pension.

Perhaps it is time for France to consider supporting its workers who want to boost their retirement savings by working longer?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/15/2023 – 02:00