Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The UK and Ukraine clinched a 100-year partnership pact on Thursday in a development that’s supposed to highlight their enduring commitment to one another, but it’s really just a public relations stunt since the document only rehashes what was previously agreed upon a year ago. The UK extended so-called “security guarantees” to Ukraine on 12 January 2024, which covered everything contained in their latest pact, with the notable exception being that the latter talks about “exploring options” for “military bases”.

While RT importantly drew attention to this, the UK never made a secret about its plans to move in that direction, but the century-long timeframe means that it might not happen in anyone’s lifetime, if at all. This declaration of intent was seemingly timed to coincide with Trump’s return to office since it correspondingly serves morale-boosting purposes among Western and Ukrainian anti-Russian hawks amidst his team’s signals that the US will at least partially disengage from that country moving forward.

Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared during his Senate confirmation hearing the day prior on Wednesday that “This war must end. Everyone should be realistic: Russia, Ukraine, and the US will have to make concessions.” The writing was already on the wall long before that, however, so no one should be surprised. This reinforces the claim that the UK’s 100-year partnership pact with Ukraine, the intent of which was hitherto unknown till this week, is just a superficial response to Trump.

To be sure, some part of their “security guarantees” will probably enter into force, such as more joint arms production. The establishment of a British base in Ukraine is unlikely anytime soon though since it’s unthinkable that Trump would agree to have the US defend the UK per Article 5 if its troops there come under attack by Russia. After all, he wants to partially disengage from Ukraine so as to “Pivot (back) to Asia”, but the aforesaid scenario is a Damocles’ sword preventing that from ever occurring in full.

The British aren’t expected to build such a base without American reassurance that it’ll have their back in that event, but even if they did, it’s almost certain that the US would coerce the UK to back down should London decide to provoke a Cuban-like nuclear brinksmanship scenario if its forces are attacked. That associated clause in their 100-year partnership pact about “exploring” this “option” is therefore the embodiment of this public relations spectacle that might even be forgotten by as early as next week.

In terms of the bigger picture, the UK definitely wants to play a long-term and highly strategic role in Ukraine, but the extent to which it can execute its lofty plans as contained in last January’s “security guarantee” pact and their latest rehash last week largely depends on the US as explained. So long as it successfully disengages from Ukraine at least in part and doesn’t allow for Article 5 to be activated for foreign troops in Ukraine who come under attack from Russia, then these ambitions will be contained.

This observation goes to show just how much the US determines the military-strategic dynamics in post-conflict Ukraine. By behaving responsibly in compromising with Russia, especially if some of the dozen ideas that were proposed at the end of this article here are implemented or at least this proposal here for a demilitarized Trans-Dnieper region, the US can greatly reduce the risk of another war breaking out. The UK wants to further divide-and-rule Europe, but it’ll struggle to succeed if the US isn’t on board.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

FBI Director Christopher Wray, who is stepping down from his role at the helm of the agency, has penned a public farewell message in which he delivers a stark assessment of the dangers facing America, while identifying hostile actions by the Chinese regime as “the defining threat of our generation.”

Reflecting on his more than seven years leading the FBI, he wrote in a Jan. 18 op-ed published by Fox News that the threats facing the country are more severe than at any time in his career—and warned they’re about to get worse.

“From where I sit, these threats are more dangerous and complex than at any time I can recall since I began my career in law enforcement almost 30 years ago,” he wrote.

“Looking ahead, the challenges to our security will grow even more daunting, and our margin for error will continue to shrink.”

Adversaries—including cartels, gangs, hackers, hostile nations, and terrorists—are now more resourceful and technologically advanced than ever, Wray warned. Cyberattacks can disrupt critical infrastructure, encrypted apps enable secret terrorist plotting, and cartels exploit global supply chains to produce highly potent drugs that are trafficked across the border and threaten the lives of millions of Americans, he noted.

Terrorism threats are escalating, with foreign and domestic actors inspired by events such as the Hamas terror attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2024, Wray said, adding bad actors are mobilizing quickly and making detection increasingly difficult.

Foreign adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran are targeting Americans by stealing personal data, conducting cyberattacks on key infrastructure, exploiting businesses, and even exporting repression to U.S. shores.

“The Chinese government, in particular, has engineered an unprecedented effort to gut American innovation, steal our most precious personal data, and meddle in our free and open society. History will mark this as the defining threat of our generation,” Wray wrote.

Wray urged the the United States to prioritize unity and vigilance, warning that the margin for error in combating these threats is shrinking rapidly.

“From my seat, I see serious grown-up threats that demand serious grown-up attention,” he warned.

The outgoing director also praised the actions the FBI has taken in recent years to make the country safer and more secure. He said the agency and its partners have made significant strides in recent years, arresting nearly 50 violent criminals daily, rescuing hundreds of children, and imprisoning numerous predators. They have dismantled gangs, seized enough fentanyl to kill tens of millions of Americans, and prevented cybercriminals from extorting nearly $800 million from potential victims, he said.

The agency has also thwarted numerous terrorist attacks, including plots against places of worship, public events, and communities nationwide, Wray said. He expressed immense pride in the efforts and sacrifices of the FBI’s rank-and-file but warned them against being complacent or distracted by politics.

“Our focus must be on the threats and our work, rather than on what divides us,” he wrote. “We must continue to tackle the dangers facing our country with objectivity, rigor, and professionalism. It’s what the American people expect and deserve.”

Wray’s farewell op-ed was published just days before he steps down as FBI director. He announced his resignation in December.

Wray explained recently that he resigned because President-elect Donald Trump wants a change of leadership at the FBI.

“The president-elect had made clear that he intended to make a change and the law is that that is something he’s able to do for any reason or no reason at all,” Wray said in a CBS interview.

Trump has nominated Kash Patel to head the agency. Calling him a “brilliant lawyer, investigator, and ‘America First’ fighter who has spent his career exposing corruption, defending Justice, and protecting the American people,” Trump expressed confidence that the FBI under Patel’s leadership.

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 17 agreed to hear a request from a group of Maryland parents to opt their young children out of having storybooks that promote LGBT lifestyles read to them.

The court granted the petition in Mahmoud v. Taylor in an unsigned order. No justices dissented, and the court did not explain its decision.

The petition was filed on Sept. 12, 2024, after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit turned away the parents’ request for an injunction to halt the Montgomery County Board of Education’s policy of promoting the books.

The case goes back to November 2022, when the board mandated new “LGBTQ-inclusive” storybooks for elementary school students that promote gender transitions, Pride parades, and same-sex romance between young children.

The board instructed employees responsible for selecting the books to use an “LGBTQ+ Lens” and to question whether “cisnormativity,” “stereotypes,” and “power hierarchies” are “reinforced or disrupted,” the petition said.

Parents were initially told they could opt out on behalf of their children when the storybooks were read, according to the petition. The board changed its policy in March 2023. Beginning with the 2023–2024 academic year, the opt-out policy would no longer be in effect.

“If parents did not like what was taught to their elementary school kids, their only choice was to send them to private school or to homeschool,” the petition said.

Hundreds of parents, largely Eastern Orthodox Christians and Muslims, showed up at board meetings and testified that their respective religions required that young children not be exposed to instruction on gender and sexuality that was inconsistent with their religion.

After “parents emphasized how impressionable young children are and how they lack independent judgment to process such complex and sensitive issues,” the board members accused parents of promoting “hate” and likened them to “white supremacists” and “xenophobes,” according to the petition.

The parents sued after the board declined to accommodate them, arguing that they had a constitutional right to opt out of such instruction.

On Aug. 24, 2023, U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman denied the parents’ application for an injunction to block the cancellation of the opt-out policy.

A divided Fourth Circuit panel upheld the ruling on May 15, 2024, holding that the parents had failed to demonstrate that an injunction was justified. The panel added that it took no view as to whether the parents would be able to produce enough evidence later in the proceeding to succeed in their case.

The panel also found that there was no evidence that the policy change burdened the parents’ right to free exercise of religion.

Eric Baxter, vice president and senior counsel at the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty, which is representing the parents, welcomed the Supreme Court’s decision to take the case.

“Cramming down controversial gender ideology on 3-year-olds without their parents’ permission is an affront to our nation’s traditions, parental rights, and basic human decency.

“The Court must make clear: parents, not the state, should be the ones deciding how and when to introduce their children to sensitive issues about gender and sexuality,” he said in a statement.

It is unclear when the Supreme Court will hear the case.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the attorney for the Montgomery County Board of Education, Alan Schoenfeld of Wilmer, Cutler, Pickering, Hale, and Dorr in New York City. No reply was received by publication time.

President-elect Donald Trump will suspend the security clearances of 51 former intelligence officials who were found to have coordinated with the 2020 Biden campaign to discredit credible and serious allegations contained on Hunter Biden’s laptop about his family’s influence peddling operation.

According to the Fox News, citing a senior administration official, Trump will take action against the so-called “Spies Who Lie,” as one of at least 100 executive orders he’s expected to sign on his first day back in the Oval Office.

Not only did federal investigators eventually confirm that Hunter’s laptop was authentic, a June 2024 report from the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of Federal Government and the Permanent Select Subcommittee on Intelligence found that “The 51 former intelligence officials’ Hunter Biden statement was a blatant political operation from the start. It originated with a call from top Biden campaign official—and now Secretary of State—Antony Blinken to former Deputy Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Michael Morell.

“The Committees’ investigation revealed that without this outreach from Blinken, Morell would not have written the statement. Indeed, Morell told the Committees that the Blinken phone call “triggered” his intent to write the statement. The statement’s drafters were open about the goal of the project: “[W]e think Trump will attack Biden on the issue at this week’s debate”6 and “we want to give the [Vice President] a talking point to use in response.”

The Committees also found that:

• High ranking CIA officials, up to and including then-CIA Director Gina Haspel, were made aware of the Hunter Biden statement prior to its approval and publication.
• Some of the statement’s signatories, including Michael Morell, were on active contract with the CIA at the time of the Hunter Biden statement’s publication.
• After publication of the Hunter Biden statement, CIA employees internally expressed concern about the statement’s politicized content, acknowledging it was not “helpful to the Agency in the long run.”

It’s going to be a fun week, eh?

Authored by John Tamny via RealClearPolicy,

North Carolina’s legislature recently passed a Congressional Term Limits resolution in bipartisan fashion. The Tar Heel state is the third one in 2024 (joining Louisiana and Tennessee) to make the historic leap. 

Voter momentum favors limiting the amount of time those elected to Congress can serve. Which is a crucial step toward better times ahead.

To see why, simply stop and consider voter disdain for Congress. It’s well known. The latest polls from 2024 indicate that Congress’s approval rating languishes in the 19% range.

Less well known is voter support for congressional term limits. A recent Pew poll revealed that 86% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans favor term limits for Congress. Voter displeasure with Congress and support for term limits are arguably related.

To understand why, readers should never forget that being elected to Congress has little relation to success while in Congress. Those who seek election frequently promise “change” and all manner of plans meant to “throw the bums out” while disrupting “business as usual.” It doesn’t matter if the base of voters swings right or left, people want to be told that their vote will bring about change. Only for reality to mug the would-be change agents.  

Upon being sworn in, the newly elected to Congress quickly realize that they will change little to nothing. And they won’t because power in Congress resides within the hands of the very few, and the very few attain that power through a demonstrated ability to work well with, and raise funds for those they promised to throw out in the first place. Only for a status quo that has authored the growth of more and more government to run roughshod over those promising the change.

It’s been said that time in Congress changes the politician. The analysis is backwards. More realistically, politicians capable of being consistently re-elected change to reflect their evolution from a reformer who reforms nothing to a politician capable of getting things done based on a reasoned view that power rarely finds its way to those who vote no on everything, who want to change how things are done, or both. See former Congressman Ron Paul if you’re confused.

Which explains why term limits are so necessary. What limits terms in Congress limits time in Congress, which means the greatest attribute of term limits is that they would alter the incentives driving the elected.

Precisely because three terms is insufficient time for most any congressman to amass power, there will be reduced desire to acquire power to begin with. In other words, those who arrive in Washington with reform very much on their minds will have less time or reason to morph into the kind of politician that they arrived in Washington to neuter.

Which is why it’s hoped that Louisiana, North Carolina and Tennessee are a signal of a trend. People who run for high office aren’t inherently bad people, but the desire to be consequential once in high office brings out the bad in them. See Congress’s approval rating yet again.

The good news is that the solution to voter disdain for Congress and congressmen can be found in term limits. A lack of them presently warps the incentives of those who arrive in Washington with good intentions, but who quickly realize they must shed their idealistic ways if they want to live up to even a fraction of the idealism that first got them elected.    

John Tamny is editor of RealClearMarkets, President of the Parkview Institute, a senior fellow at the Market Institute, and a senior economic adviser to Applied Finance Advisors (www.appliedfinance.com). His next book is The Deficit Delusion: Why Everything Left, Right and Supply Side Tell You About the National Debt Is Wrong. 

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. defense contractor Anduril Industries unveiled plans on Jan. 16 to build an advanced “hyperscale” manufacturing facility in Columbus, Ohio, aimed at increasing the scale and speed at which autonomous systems and weapons can be produced for both the United States and its allies.

The Cosa Mesa, California-based defense technology company said in a statement that it plans to begin constructing the manufacturing facility, called “Arsenal-1,” once state and local approvals are secured, after which manufacturing will begin in July 2026.

Anduril is investing nearly $1 billion into the development, which will span more than 5 million square feet (464,515 square meters) at full scale and will be located next to Rickenbacker Airport.

The factory is expected to create more than 4,000 direct jobs in Ohio, making it the largest single job-creation project in the state’s history.

Anduril said it chose to construct the facility in Ohio following an extensive, year-long search process that evaluated numerous locations across the country.

The company praised Ohio as being the “ideal” location for the weapons-making factory, citing its robust infrastructure, highly skilled and diverse manufacturing workforce, and history of advanced aviation.

It said the site’s development marks a “monumental and essential step” toward rebuilding America’s defense industrial base, bolstering warfighting capabilities, and enhancing deterrence amid rising global threats.

“Arsenal-1 represents a step forward in how we manufacture the autonomous systems and weapons that our nation and our allies need to remain secure” said Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf.

“By harnessing a world-class workforce and a scalable, software-driven approach to manufacturing, Arsenal-1 will set the standard for how we respond to the challenges of the future fight.”

Underpinning the facility is Arsenal, which Anduril said is a software-defined manufacturing platform optimized to mass-produce autonomous systems and weapons. The platform will allow Arsenal-1 to produce tens of thousands of military systems annually, according to the company.

Anduril noted that the decision to build the facility in Ohio is contingent upon state and local approvals of incentives, and other legal and regulatory matters.

According to its official website, Anduril Industries was founded in 2017 and supports operations with the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the Australian Defence Force, the UK Ministry of Defence, and others.

The company mainly produces autonomous air and underwater systems, as well as rocket motors.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine welcomed the development, while praising Ohio’s history of advancing aviation, aerospace, and national defense, which began with the Wright brothers.

“At this critical moment in time, our country needs rapid technological innovation, which Anduril will deliver using Ohio’s skilled, hardworking labor force,” the governor said. “The future of American air power will be made in Ohio!”

Ohio is also home to the headquarters of aircraft engine supplier GE Aerospace and a new Joby Aviation manufacturing facility near Dayton. Joby is currently preparing to manufacture electric taxi—known as vertical takeoff and landing, or eVTOL—aircraft at the factory beginning this year.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Authored by Abhishek Kambli & Erin Gaide via RealClearPolicy,

Even in the waning days of the Biden administration, they are circumventing Congress and the rule of law to illegally forgive billions of dollars in student loan debt through the collusive class action settlement of Sweet v. Cardona. As one of his first acts on January 20, President-elect Trump should shut down this travesty.

The controversy stems from a class action lawsuit against the federal Department of Education initiated by borrowers in 2019. The Trump administration negotiated a legal settlement, but it was rejected by the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California in 2020. Once the Biden administration took office, the parties negotiated a fresh settlement in what became Sweet v. Cardona. The 2022 settlement included something that had never been on the table: erasing $6 billion in student loan debt for roughly 200,000 borrowers.

The settlement has no statutory or regulatory basis. In reaching the settlement, Biden’s Education Secretary, Miguel Cardona, disregarded his duty to faithfully follow his statutory and regulatory responsibilities and, in doing so, he infringed on Congress’ power of the purse. Furthermore, by approving a settlement that, by design, undermines the Constitution’s separation of powers protections, the district court also abused its discretion.

Also troubling are the procedural defects. The revised settlement fails to meet basic class certification requirements, creating three subclasses with divergent claims and relief. One blatant example of the settlement’s procedural flaws is its violation of Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, which requires a unified class. The district court should have rejected this settlement outright, but it did not. But by approving this collusive settlement, the court allowed the Biden administration’s unlawful actions to stand.

And there were those who properly objected to the settlement as well. Four of the schools that were maligned in the case were initially allowed to intervene to object.  But though the district court found the schools had a legal interest in the case, it ignored their valid concerns and approved the settlement.

The settlement was temporarily put on pause pending an appeal filed by the schools in 2023. Unfortunately, on November 5 of this year, the Ninth Circuit ruled 2-1 to uphold the Biden administration’s blatant abuse of executive power. The ruling thereby affirmed the district court’s approval of the underlying revised settlement that was struck between the Biden administration’s Department of Education and a plaintiff class of student borrowers seeking relief from federal student loan payments under the borrower-defense statute, 20 U.S.C. 1087e(h), and accompanying regulations.  It also disregarded the schools’ objection, creating a novel test to keep them out of the case and avoid reaching the tough questions as to the legality of the settlement.  

Judge Daniel Collins recognized these issues in his dissenting opinion. Collins rightly noted the settlement’s lack of legal basis and failure to meet class certification standards. His dissent also provides a roadmap for further legal challenges.

The settlement represents a dangerous erosion of the separation of powers. The Biden administration and Education Secretary Cardona have failed to faithfully execute the law, instead using clearly flawed settlements to achieve political aims. By disguising what amounts to legislation as a judicial settlement, the Biden administration’s class action settlement creates a backdoor for broader student debt relief, which has long been a major political goal of the Biden administration.  If allowed to stand, this precedent will open the door to further abuses.

The incoming Trump administration must move swiftly to challenge and overturn this unconstitutional settlement. The Department of Education, under Trump’s watch, should admit error and work to correct this overreach. Congress should also investigate the Education Department’s misuse of settlement authority to circumvent the legislative process.

 Our system of government depends on each branch respecting constitutional limits. The Sweet v. Cardona settlement flagrantly violates those limits. It must not be allowed to stand. And it won’t, if the incoming Trump administration makes it a priority.

Abhishek Kambli is a Deputy Attorney General at the Office of the Kansas Attorney General where he leads the Special Litigation Division. Erin Gaide is an Assistant Attorney General in the Special Litigation Division at the Office of the Kansas Attorney General.

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Each generation believes it can create a better world. Were it not so, we would still live in caves.

Some generations thirst for change through revolution. That probably has to do with longer-term economic and political cycles. But for whatever reason, amongst these revolutionary generations, some are more determined, effective.

The 1960s-70s youth seemed radical, but they were far from French revolutionaries. Their actions failed to spark an inferno. My wife Mara grew up in a hippy enclave during that period. Her town sought to opt out of the system by going backward, living off the land, returning to simpler times.

But history rarely turns back the clock for long. That generation never had a credible plan to replace the system with something better. Nor did it have new technology to amplify force. The establishment knew this. The youth back then presented no real threat, just the appearance of instability. Daisies and LSD.

But today’s youth have built the technologies to power revolution. Their protocols remain nascent, but if they’re allowed to flourish (or if they cannot be stopped), they will credibly replace incumbent industries that the masses have come to despise (retail banks, commercial banks, central banks, wall street, money transfer agents, credit card companies, social media companies, exchanges of every kind, censors, and the list has just started).

Someday these technologies may threaten our notion of centralized government control. In the 1960s-70s, incumbents knew the revolutionaries had no credible plan.

This time, revolutionary technologies are already being rolled out. They are more efficient, cheaper, faster. They cut out the middlemen. And empower the individual.

Today’s incumbents are threatened with extinction. In fact, if today’s business leaders were 30yrs younger, most would be racing to build their companies/wealth in this new field of blockchain.

This is what a credible revolution looks like, waged by brilliant youth, impassioned, with fantastic ideas, immense wealth, and humanity’s most powerful technologies, applied in ways that incumbents can barely understand.

And it is too early to tell exactly where this new generation will lead us, only that it is to a profoundly different future.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Democrats see the light. The Laken Riley deportation bill passed the Senate easily.

Good News From Senate Democrats

By a filibuster-proof margin, Senate Democrats Help Republicans Advance Immigration Crackdown.

Ten Democrats sided with Republicans to advance the legislation, called the Laken Riley Act, a sign of the Democrats’ shifting stance on immigration. Polls showed voters consistently favored Republicans’ hard line on the border and immigration, following a surge of illegal crossings that has since subsided. A bipartisan bill backed by President Biden stalled last year.

The chamber voted 61-35 to end debate on the bill, above the 60-vote threshold required for most legislation to advance. The vote puts the bill on track to clear the Senate next week on a simple majority, which would then send it back to the House to be approved and forwarded on to President-elect Donald Trump’s desk.

“We have irresponsible, open-border, soft-on-crime policies, and that must end,” said Sen. Katie Britt (R., Ala.), who led the legislation that was joined by two Democratic co-sponsors, Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman. “This bill will prevent countless nightmares,” she said.

Some Democrats attempted to force votes on amendments to exclude Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, recipients, as well as minors who arrived in the country illegally but aren’t DACA-eligible. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) declined to bring any to a vote.

The Laken Riley bill would widen the group of people eligible for deportation by including nonconvicted individuals, raising due-process concerns and rapidly expanding the pool of individuals who would be eligible for deportation.

A second provision of the bill would grant state attorneys general legal standing to sue federal immigration officials and to request intervention for individual cases. Some Democrats and legal experts said they expect the standing provision, a doctrine grounded in the Constitution, to be challenged as unconstitutional.

The Laken Riley Act could cost billions and take years to fully implement. A memo from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement circulated among senators before Friday’s vote estimated the annual cost of encoding the bill to be nearly $27 billion—about a quarter of the Homeland Security Department’s budget for the 2025 fiscal year.

The estimate accounts for the hiring of more than 10,000 enforcement officers, who conduct arrests and manage detention facilities, at a cost of $2.6 billion. The deportation push could also require the addition of multiple aircraft and ground transportation vehicles, along with more than 100,000 additional detention-facility beds.

An amendment introduced by Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas) and added to the bill broadens the list of offenses that would require detention, including any arrest for assault of a law enforcement officer.

The legislation’s namesake, Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student in Athens, Ga., was murdered by a Venezuelan national living in the U.S. illegally. Jose Antonio Ibarra was found guilty of murder, kidnapping and other charges in the February 2024 killing. In November, he was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole and was set to serve additional shorter sentences consecutively.

“A Blinding Flash of Common Sense”

On January 11, I reported “A Blinding Flash of Common Sense” from Democrats on Illegal Immigration

That’s six known with only one more [Democrat] needed to break any filibuster.

And even if it stopped at 6, I doubt senators would put their career on the line with a filibuster of this bill against clear national sentiment.

I expect another 6-12 Democrats will sign on, if not more.

Four more signed on. It would have been more were it not for a provision that may be unconstitutional.

Blinding Display of Expected Idiocy

In a blinding display of expected idiocy, the extreme Left-wing lunatics at The Slate call the bill a Horrifying Trojan Horse.

If the Slate is against something, I am highly likely for it, and vice versa.

Heading Toward a Sensible Policy

On December 24, I commented Trump Backs Down From Strong Sweeping Deportation Promise

Both Trump and his border czar are sending strong messages that Trump’s deportation plan won’t live up to his campaign hype.

Deal for Dreamers

I suspect Trump privately got some heat from some governors who understand the economic insanity of “deport them all”.

Regardless why, I get to say “I told you so” once again to those who cling to every word Trump says.

To get a bill through congress for more border patrols, ICE agents, and to finish the wall, Trump is going to have to cut a deal.

And that deal will be amnesty for dreamers.

If you want to know what kind of dreamer deal to expect, please see my November 7, 2024 post The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

The great news today is there is a clear majority for sensible actions.

Deport them all won’t happen, but deport the criminals and seal the border will. That’s what I wanted all along.

We are rapidly heading in that direction due to “A Blinding Flash of Common Sense” in uncommon places.

Trump may get to sign this act on day one!

Submitted by John Sitilides, Geopolitical Strategist at Trilogy Advisors and Senior Fellow for National Security at the Foreign Policy Research Institute,

On Jan. 20, President-elect Donald Trump will inherit a kaleidoscopic portfolio of disordered foreign policy and national security effects that he and his team must address, redirect, and resolve to achieve an enhanced and revitalized American posture, abroad and at home.

The foundations for the current geopolitical disorder – especially the hot wars in Europe and the Middle East and the cold peace with China – are many, rooted in foreign capitals, international markets, and domestic political choices. The second Trump administration is determined to right much of what it understands to be wrong with the Biden Administration’s policies and outcomes.

Even as the 47th president bolsters his options, and those of our negotiating partners in allied and adversarial capitals, with incentives, he will find those options constrained by hard truths and tough choices.

Serious global commercial, technological, and military competition with China tops the list. Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping has embarked on a “China Shock 2” worldwide export strategy to resolve excess industrial capacity, massively distorting trade balances and defying the World Trade Organization with near impunity as it has for more than two decades.

The technology race to dominate the global economy of the 21st century is well-advanced, as President Biden has widened the original Trump sanctions regime, preventing China from directly procuring cutting-edge semiconductors needed to accelerate artificial intelligence, data centers, and quantum computing development. Beijing is responding through super-investments into domestic technology firms to outpace Western competitors. It is also escalating pressure on Taiwan, with unparalleled military exercises at sea and on land in seeming preparation for naval and air blockades and subsequent amphibious occupation of the island, with potential global economic damage estimated to cost $5 trillion, or 5% of global GDP.

Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine is entering its fourth year, and human carnage accumulates as Vladimir Putin and Volodomyr Zelenskyy stand fast on their respective negotiation conditions.

The U.S.-led sanctions on Russia have dented its economy. Still, Mr. Putin observed the experiences of North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela and other countries sanctioned by Washington and incorporated salvaging measures into the Russian economy, especially in redirecting trade towards China, India, and much of the global South hungry for valuable Russian natural resources, commodities, and military hardware.

The details of Mr. Trump’s ceasefire efforts will lead to NATO pushback, especially from eastern and central European allies nearest to Ukraine and concerned about U.S. commitments to their defense. This could open a profound debate about whether Washington believed it would ever have to risk U.S. cities to defend European cities during the past three decades of NATO expansion.

Israel has reordered the security architecture of the Middle East after devastating Hamas and Hezbollah, facilitating the ouster of the Syrian government and demonstrating its ability to strike at most of Iran’s surface assets.

Mr. Trump may face a decision regarding Tehran’s accelerating uranium enrichment if the Supreme Leader or an imminent successor opts to cross the nuclear weapons threshold. With Syria’s failed state coming under radical Islamist rule after Mr. Trump successfully achieved the defeat of Islamic State in 2018, the situation is further complicated by the inordinate influence in Damascus of NATO ally Turkey, now emboldened to attack U.S. allies in eastern Syria’s Kurdish region.

The Iranian-sponsored Houthi militia controlling Yemen continues to disrupt global shipping through the Red Sea, a direct assault on the U.S.-led international trading system that will frustrate the Trump White House since the NATO economies that suffer the greatest impact have delivered the least muscular response.

In this hemisphere, Mr. Trump is refocusing the national security establishment on securing the U.S. border, ending the free flow of illegal aliens into the country, and immediately deporting alien criminals and others most harmful to the American citizenry. He will revisit trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, the latter increasingly exploited by China to bypass U.S. tariffs. He seeks to protect existing shipping lanes in Panama and explore new shipping lanes and natural resources in Greenland, the geopolitical prize in an Arctic region increasingly engaged by Russia and China.

Shock law enforcement policies in El Salvador transformed the small nation from the world’s murder capital to one of the safest anywhere, and shock economic policies in Argentina signal a potential return to fiscal and monetary normalcy – both potential examples for Trump domestic policies to address crime and runaway government spending. The administration will likely pursue the deeper isolation of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, all three of which have welcomed Russia’s port visit and signed onto China’s “Belt Road” predatory infrastructure network.

Mr. Trump is unwavering in his intention to incentivize robust U.S. oil and natural gas production to export worldwide and will seek to reverse the severe restrictions the Biden administration placed during this transition on new oil and gas production across 625 million acres of U.S. coastal and offshore waters.

The need to provide far greater power levels to grow the domestic A.I., data centers, and other electricity-hungry industries is leading to a potential renaissance for nuclear energy, the most efficient energy form in both massive power density and limited physical footprint. The Trump strategy is straightforward: Vast oil, gas, and coal production to power the U.S. economy, maximize export revenues and reverse our allies’ deindustrialization woes with cheaper energy, coupled with clean and reliable nuclear energy that Meta, Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and other U.S. companies require to lead the global technology economy.

Mr. Trump will also confront serious headwinds in implementing his preferred policies.

With federal debt service now set to exceed defense spending annually for the foreseeable future, joined to Mr. Trump’s campaign commitments to leave Social Security and Medicare unreformed, rebuilding America’s military and enhancing global deterrence will be far more challenging than in his first term.

Thirty years of American uncontested military dominance is ending, as the Commission on National Defense Strategy concluded in July 2024 that “the threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war.”

The Commission concluded that China, in many sectors, such as shipbuilding and drone production, is already outpacing the U.S. in military production and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific after two decades of intense investment. Beijing is increasing its annual defense spending by an average of 7% annually, Moscow is spending 6% of GDP to reconstitute its national military forces, and both are actively enhancing their already considerable strategic, space, and cyber capabilities. If Trump is serious about NATO members spending 5% of GDP on defense, the U.S. annual military budget will need to increase from $841 billion in FY 2024 to about $1.2 trillion.

Against these serious challenges, our nation’s economic, political, military, technological, societal and constitutional foundations remain the surest and strongest in the world. At the same time, the need for greater wisdom and a clear-eyed vision among all our nation’s political, business, and civic leaders, from President-elect Trump down to everyday citizens, is urgent. Such is the era of incentives, constraints, and tradeoffs, ideally to thwart national decline and achieve national revitalization across the international security landscape that greets the new president on Jan. 20.