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Study Shows Some Humans Are Evolving To Be ‘Foxier’

Study Shows Some Humans Are Evolving To Be ‘Foxier’

Authored by David Randall via RealClearScience,

The latest report from David Reich’s genetics lab at Harvard is that “Ancient DNA reveals pervasive directional selection across West Eurasia.” In other words, humans have been continuing to evolve in Europe and the Middle East for the last 10,000 years, with significant effect. Reich’s paper broadly substantiates the thesis of Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending’s The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution. Civilization hasn’t ended biological evolution, but proceeds alongside it. 

Reich’s genome-wide association study (GWAS) indicates that West Eurasians have increased or reduced their vulnerability to a variety of ailments. Genetic changes have rendered them less susceptible to leprosy, rheumatoid arthritis, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia, and moreso to coeliac disease and gout. At the same time, there has been positive selection for fair skin, red hair, and intelligence, and negative selection for male-pattern baldness. In summary, West Eurasians have grown foxier, as the arc of their genetic history bends toward fluffy ginger genius. 

Reich’s conclusions are pretty likely to hold water. Too many scientific and social scientific fields have been affected by the irreproducibility crisis of modern science. The worst-hit disciplines use far too loose a definition of statistical significance, p 

The data Reich’s lab can work with, after all, is remarkably bounteous. As the researchers wrote:

[W]e increased power through a 14-fold increase in sample size, driven by 10,016 ancient individuals for whom we report new data, which combined with previously reported data yields a dataset of 15,836 people spanning 18,000 years … The final dataset included 8,074,573 SNPs [single-nucleotide polymorphisms] and 1,665,051 insertions or deletions (indels) on chromosomes 1–22. 

Science only can advance on sure foundations when you’re reasonably likely the research will hold up. Sociology, psychology, any discipline where you cannot work with millions of pieces of data, cannot be expected to match GWAS levels of rigorous statistical significance. But, as many scientists have proposed, p

Americans in general might also take Reich’s work as a prompt to reconsider our various moratoria on using American Indian biological data to provide gene samples. Reich’s report on West Eurasian genetic data presumably is only a beginning. We may expect reports to come on East Eurasians, Sub-Saharan Africans, Aboriginal Australians, Khoisan in South African, American Indians in Latin America—reports on people all over the world.

Except on the American Indians of the United States.

Our legal, regulatory, and cultural inhibitions mean that there will be an enduring blank spot in the knowledge we gain from the genetics revolution—knowledge which will aid not only paleogenetic research but also advances in medicine tailored to each individual’s DNA. American Indians might be the last people on Earth to benefit from such advances in genetically individuated medicine if we continue to veto researchers’ use of American Indian genetic and paleogenetic data. 

Science funders also should note that science proceeds by joint work in many disciplines and isn’t just a high-tech plaything. The Reich lab’s research depended not least upon “10,016 ancient individuals for whom we report new data.” Those individuals didn’t just show up in laboratories by magic. They came there by careful work by archaeologists, by intelligent observations from interested amateurs, by hard and careful work in caves, in ancient graves, and in sudden gullies opened by rainstorms. Brawn, physical finesse, and something of the Indiana Jones spirit of adventure were as important for making this research possible as microscopes and microchips. Dear Mr. and Mrs. Moneybags: no dig, no data. We all should remember that, too. 

David Randall is the Director of Research at the National Association of Scholars.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/22/2026 – 05:00

US Throttles Intelligence-Sharing With South Korea After Nuclear Disclosure Row

US Throttles Intelligence-Sharing With South Korea After Nuclear Disclosure Row

The United States has reduced intelligence sharing with South Korea pertaining to eavesdropping on North Korea following an alleged leak tied to sensitive information, according to local media reports.

But it is a major allegation that the government has dismissed as ‘absurd’. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung took to X at the start of this week to write, “Any claim or action based on the premise that Minister Chung ‘leaked classified information provided by the US’ is wrong.”

Bloomberg, citing Yonhap and others, wrote that “South Korean media reported that the US is limiting intelligence sharing on North Korea with Seoul after Unification Minister Chung Dong-young publicly identified North Korea’s uranium enrichment facility in Kusong last month.”

AFP/Getty Images

Washington reportedly began limiting access earlier this month to certain intelligence linked to North Korea’s technological capabilities, widely believed to involve aspects of its nuclear program, according to Yonhap News.

“It’s true that the US side has been restricting sharing parts of North Korean intelligence collected through satellites from early this month,” a senior military official said. “(The restricted sharing of intelligence) is related to information regarding parts of North Korea’s technology.”

Some 28,500 US troops are permanently stationed in South Korea, and the US is a longtime military partner going back to the Korean War of the mid-20th century. US intel-sharing has always heavily assisted Seoul with missile warning data and satellite surveillance.

The whole rare episode stems from remarks by South Korea’s Unification Minister Chung Dong-young during a March 6 parliamentary session, when he openly identified Kusong as a third North Korean uranium enrichment site alongside facilities at Yongbyon and Kangson.

The speech marked a first official acknowledgment by Seoul of the Kusong site, which then triggered backlash from Washington, featuring complaints from US officials through diplomatic and military channels who viewed it as a potential exposure of sensitive, possibly shared intelligence.

Chung in turn rejected the accusations, framing his remarks as all based in open source and public data which can be found through research reports.

Pyongyang is probably enjoying the spectacle, having long vehemently denounced the US presence on the Korean peninsula, also given the sporadic docking of a US nuclear submarine. This is a very rare moment of tensions among allies on the Korean peninsula. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/22/2026 – 04:15

Coinbase Now Lets UK Users Borrow Against Their Bitcoin And Ethereum

Coinbase Now Lets UK Users Borrow Against Their Bitcoin And Ethereum

Via Decrypt.co,

  • Coinbase launched crypto-backed USDC lending for U.K. users on Monday.

  • Bitcoin holders can borrow up to $5 million in USDC, with Ethereum-backed loans capped at $1 million.

  • The service uses Morpho, an open-source lending protocol on Ethereum layer-2 network, Base.

Crypto exchange Coinbase has expanded its lending service, now allowing U.K. customers to borrow USDC stablecoins using their Bitcoin or Ethereum holdings as collateral.

The service operates through Morpho, an open-source lending protocol on Base—the Coinbase-backed Ethereum layer-2 network—that powers Coinbase’s crypto-backed loans.

U.K. users can pledge cryptocurrency as collateral to access USDC liquidity without liquidating their digital assets.

Borrowing limits vary by collateral type.

Bitcoin holders can access up to $5 million in USDC, while Ethereum-backed loans top out at $1 million, depending on the amount pledged.

Coinbase first launched the crypto-backed loan service in the United States in January 2025, and said it has facilitated $2.17 billion USDC in loan originations as of April 14.

The lending product adds to Coinbase’s growing U.K. service portfolio.

The exchange introduced decentralized exchange trading for U.K. users just last week, and previously launched savings accounts in November 2025.

These offerings followed Coinbase’s February 2025 FCA registration, which enabled the firm to expand regulated services in the market.

“Crypto-backed loans are part of Coinbase’s efforts to build the number one financial app in the U.K.,” said Coinbase U.K. CEO, in a statement.

“We want to be the best place for U.K. consumers to invest, manage and grow their money.”

Coinbase (COIN) shares on the Nasdaq are down about 1% on the day at a current price above $204, though they’re up nearly 17% over the last week amid broader crypto and stock market recoveries.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/22/2026 – 03:30

China Loads Up On US Chip Tools Via Southeast Asia Amid Supply Chain Shift

China Loads Up On US Chip Tools Via Southeast Asia Amid Supply Chain Shift

China’s imports of chipmaking equipment from Malaysia and Singapore rose sharply in 2025 to surpass those from the US, which sank to an eight-year low, an analysis by Nikkei Asia has found – even as American companies remain a vital source of advanced tools for the country.

While the Netherlands and Japan remain China’s primary foreign sources of critical semiconductor manufacturing machines by shipment origin, imports from the two Southeast Asian countries reached record levels: $5.7 billion for Singapore, up more than 17% year over year, and $3.4 billion for Malaysia, more than double the 2024 figure.

Direct imports from the US, meanwhile, declined more than 34% to about $2 billion, the lowest level since 2017, according to Chinese customs data. The decline was to be expected following President Trump’s return to the White House, as he sharply limited access of US semiconductors to China, although tensions began earlier. Since Trump’s first term and during the subsequent Biden administration, the US has raised tariffs and imposed fresh export controls aimed at slowing China’s advances in chipmaking technologies for defense, space and artificial intelligence applications.

Despite the decline, the Chinese market remained a critical revenue source for leading US chip equipment makers last year. Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA all earned more than 30% of their total sales from China in fiscal 2025.

Charles Shi, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Needham & Co., told Nikkei Asia that the uptick in China’s imports from Southeast Asia is mainly due to the large number of U.S. chip equipment makers expanding manufacturing capacity in the region to better serve non-U.S. clients.

“Lam Research is building significant manufacturing capacity in Malaysia as they work to meet growing equipment demand beyond what their U.S. manufacturing capacity can serve,” Shi said. “Singapore has been a popular destination for [the] U.S. equipment industry to go overseas. For example, both Applied Materials and KLA have been manufacturing in Singapore.”

The three top U.S. chip tool makers generated nearly $19 billion in combined revenue from China in fiscal 2025, significantly exceeding figures implied by customs data based on where shipments originated from and underscoring the effectiveness of American vendors’ production diversification strategies. Nikkei Asia first reported their production shift toward Southeast Asia in early 2023.

For ASML of the Netherlands, China’s share of revenue came to 29.1% in 2025, while the figure for top Japanese chip tool maker Tokyo Electron was more than 40% for fiscal 2025.

Anticipating major chip wars, over the course of 2020 to 2025, China’s accumulated chip tool imports from Japan reached more than $42 billion, followed by the Netherlands’ $35 billion . Japan is home to many top chip equipment makers such as Tokyo Electron, Screen Semiconductor Solutions and Ebara, while the Netherlands has the world’s largest chip equipment maker, ASML, as well as key suppliers such as ASM, an atomic-level deposition tool specialist, and Besi, a maker of advanced chip packaging tools.

Meanwhile, China’s domestic chipmaking equipment makers are experiencing a once-in-a-generation surge in growth, driven by Beijing’s push to foster homegrown tools and reduce reliance on foreign technologies. Top suppliers all reported record revenue and profits for 2025, led by Naura, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (AMEC), ACM Research and Piotech.

Naura, China’s answer to Applied Materials, has seen its revenue balloon from 6.05 billion yuan ($887 million) in 2020 to 27.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue for AMEC skyrocketed more than 400% from 2020 to 2025. Piotech, a thin-film deposition chip tool specialist, has seen its revenue grow 13 times between 2020 and 2025.

Shi of Needham said China has made good progress in fostering local chip tool makers, but internal competition is intensifying. “While leading domestic equipment companies are still posting strong revenue growth, there are indications that their margin performance is deteriorating,” Shi said of Chinese chipmaking companies. “We believe intensifying domestic competition might have forced domestic equipment companies to ‘race to the bottom’ by undercutting each other’s prices.”

With China’s equipment suppliers becoming more competitive in recent years, US policymakers are seeking to further close loopholes in export rules. In April, bipartisan lawmakers introduced the MATCH Act, which calls on “multilateral allies” to coordinate more closely in aligning and tightening export restrictions across key segments of the chipmaking equipment industry. These measures would further target critical “chokepoint” components and machinery, as well as shipments to leading Chinese memory and logic chipmakers, including CXMT, YMTC, SMIC and Hua Hong.

“Chinese tool companies on the Entity List are unable to get access to U.S. parts, but there are many parts that Europe and Japan can backfill, and that’s the conundrum that we find ourselves in today,” Kevin Kurland, a former official at the U.S. Department of Commerce and current senior advisor at Beacon Global Strategies, told Nikkei Asia. “If controls don’t get aligned multilaterally with allies, U.S. controls can undercut American companies’ competitiveness while allowing Chinese companies to continue to function and operate – a lose-lose outcome.

Alex Rubin, a former CIA China analyst and visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, told Nikkei Asia that “component export controls definitely make sense.”

“It’s very similar to what we are seeing in commercial aviation: China is assembling the finished C919 aircraft, but is sourcing parts from U.S. and European suppliers. Chinese companies are trying to compete with Boeing and Airbus, while sourcing from a similar supply chain,” Rubin said.

While China is still massively sourcing foreign chip tools, its ultimate goal is self sufficiency, industry sources say.

While durability, reliability and performance may not be at the same level, “for every foreign chipmaking tool, material and component you can think of, you could find Chinese versions,” said an executive with a Taiwanese chipmaking tool who participated in the Semicon China industry event in late March. “Chinese chipmakers will continue to buy foreign solutions while they can, but there’s no doubt about the country’s will to increase the use of homegrown suppliers.”

China is adopting a two-way approach: developing homegrown tools while continuing to purchase foreign equipment whenever possible. Since imported tools often offer better performance, they are still buying aggressively — and even repurposing consumable parts from one piece of equipment to repair other chipmaking machines,” another chip industry executive with knowledge of the matter told Nikkei Asia.

A third executive with a Chinese chipmaking tool supplier told Nikkei Asia that the aggressive expansion plans by Chinese logic and memory chipmakers have given local vendors more opportunities to break into and secure a position in the domestic supply chain.

Nikkei Asia was the first to report that Chinese top chipmakers led by SMIC, Hua Hong and Huawei-linked chipmakers are aiming to aggressively expand advanced chip production capacity, including on the performance level of 7-nanometer or even 5-nm technologies, to support the rise of domestic AI chip developers. Meanwhile, top Chinese memory chip producers CXMT and YMTC are launching their largest expansions in response to the unprecedented global memory crunch amid the AI boom, Nikkei revealed in early February.

American allies such as the Netherlands and Japan have already introduced rules to align with U.S. export controls, but policymakers in Washington feel those restrictions are still much too loose. The U.S. has imposed multiple rounds of regulation on exports to China and has added many leading Chinese chip equipment suppliers and chipmakers to its Entity List.

The MATCH Act, if passed, could further limit global vendors’ ability to supply critical tech to China. The bill targets some older – though still critical – generations of chipmaking machines as well as components, both of which can be chokepoints for China’s efforts to build up its domestic chip industry. Introduced in early April, the bill still needs to go through the legislative process, and it remains unclear how the Netherlands, Japan and other countries would respond to any diplomatic pressure to comply. For example, only ASML in the Netherlands and Canon and Nikon in Japan can produce commercially viable lithography machines — an area where China continues to face significant challenges.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/22/2026 – 02:45

Spain’s Services Crumble; Military-Aged Male Migrants Overwhelm Registry Offices

Spain’s Services Crumble; Military-Aged Male Migrants Overwhelm Registry Offices

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Huge queues of migrants continue to snake through Spanish cities this week as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s socialist government opened the floodgates on its controversial mass regularization program. Applications for legal status and work permits kicked off last Thursday following cabinet approval, and the scenes unfolding in Barcelona, Zaragoza, Sevilla and beyond confirm the worst fears of those who warned this amnesty would break the system.

It is the direct result of the chaos already documented after Sánchez rammed through his plan to legalize half a million undocumented migrants already inside the country. As thousands swarmed consulates and offices demanding paperwork, the very public services Spaniards rely on are now buckling under the pressure.

In Barcelona, Pakistani migrants rushed the consulate for criminal record certificates required under the scheme.

Footage from Zaragoza showed similar crowds overwhelming local offices:

In Valencia the lines were massive:

In Sevilla, VOX candidate Manuel Gavira posted video of long lines outside city hall and delivered a stark warning: “These are the lines in Seville to manage mass regularization. What you see here today… tomorrow you’ll see it in the clinics, in social assistance, in housing, and in all public services. It’s called collapse. And it has already begun.”

The Daily Mail reports that migrants are camping overnight outside registry offices and shopping-mall centers in Catalunya, Andalucia and Asturias. One Colombian in Barcelona told reporters he arrived at 10 or 11pm and waited 15 hours. A Honduran migrant who slept on the floor said, “A very large group of people almost trampled me… We risked our lives, but it will be worth it.”

Sánchez himself defended the move in a public letter, claiming it was both moral and economic: “Spain is ageing… Without more people working and contributing to the economy, our prosperity slows, and our public services suffer.”

Yet critics point out the obvious: Spain already has roughly 840,000 undocumented migrants and a foreign-born population nearing 10 million out of 50 million total. Ninety percent of new jobs have gone to immigrants while native Spaniards face housing shortages and strained services. Legalizing another half-million without fixing those problems only accelerates the breakdown.

The nationalist VOX Party has labeled the policy an “invasion” that “attacks our identity” and has vowed to challenge it in the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, immigration officers are threatening to strike over lack of resources. Local councils are already talking about early closures because the system cannot cope.

Just days before the avalanche of applications began, legal challengers warned that Sánchez’s mass amnesty could still be stopped. A conservative group, Hazte Oír, successfully petitioned the Spanish Supreme Court to review the controversial Royal Decree used to bypass parliament. The court has given the government a non-extendable 20-day deadline to hand over all files, raising the real possibility of a precautionary suspension that would freeze the entire legalization process.

Hazte Oír argued the decree creates “irreparable damage” by granting residence, work permits, Social Security registration, access to benefits and the suspension of expulsion orders to hundreds of thousands of people — changes that would be almost impossible to reverse even if the court later rules the shortcut illegal.

The group stressed that the measure “structurally alters the State’s immigration policy, with direct and lasting effects” on the labour market, public benefits system, municipal registry, “and, in the medium term, the electoral roll.”

Lawyer Javier María Pérez-Roldán warned: “Massive regularization without planning directly impacts the saturation of essential public services (educational and social), affecting the collective interests that this association defends.”

VOX leader Santiago Abascal had already sounded the alarm as the first queues formed: “These are the lines to manage mass regularization in each municipality of Spain. Tomorrow this chaos will move to the centres of health, to the social services, to the real estate agencies… It’s called thirdworldization. It’s already happening. Our priority is to reverse it, radically.”

The scenes unfolding this week prove Abascal correct: the chaos has already begun. If the Supreme Court does not intervene quickly, Spain will have crossed a point of no return — handing EU-wide freedom of movement to half a million undocumented migrants while its own public services buckle.

The pattern is unmistakable. Sánchez’s progressive coalition ignores the strain on housing, healthcare, schools and welfare while fast-tracking residency permits that will let recipients work legally and eventually travel freely throughout Europe in Schengen. Once again, Spanish citizens are told to accept lower wages, longer waits and cultural transformation in the name of “diversity” and GDP growth that never seems to reach the native population.

Spain is not alone in Europe, but it stands out for doubling down while neighbors tighten borders. The queues in Barcelona, Zaragoza and Sevilla are not a one-off photo opportunity. They are the visible symptom of a policy that prioritizes outsiders over citizens and votes over sovereignty. As VOX has warned, the collapse has already begun. Spaniards who value their country, their culture and their children’s future have been put on notice.

The rest of the West should watch closely. When governments treat borders as suggestions and citizens as afterthoughts, the consequences arrive faster than any press release can spin them.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/22/2026 – 02:00

Ukraine Billionaire Spends $554 Million For World’s Most Expensive Apartment In Monte Carlo

Ukraine Billionaire Spends $554 Million For World’s Most Expensive Apartment In Monte Carlo

It makes sense that a nation which has consistently ranked at the top in all global corruption rankings, produces some of the most extravagant demonstrations of stolen wealth. 

Take billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, among many other assets owner of the Azovstal steel complex in Mariupol which became one of the defining clashes in the Ukraine war, and Ukraine’s richest man, who bought a vast, five-floor luxury apartment in Monaco’s most prestigious new development for an eye-popping €471 million ($554 million), making it the biggest single home transactions in history according to Bloomberg.

The 21-room waterfront property, acquired by the businessman’s holding company, is located in the principality’s Mareterra district. The new area, built on reclaimed land, was inaugurated by Prince Albert II in 2024 and has drawn ultra-rich investors from around the world.

Le Renzo in Mareterra, Monte Carlo

Situated in the flagship “Le Renzo” building, the apartment stretches over about 2,500 square meters (27,000 square feet), not counting balconies and terraces looking out over the Mediterranean Sea. It also has a private swimming pool, jacuzzi and comes with at least eight parking spots.

Details of the sale, which was finalized in 2024, or about two years after Akhmetov’s country was deep in a brutal war with thousands of his countrymen dying on the front every day, come from the principality’s property records, as well as a stash of emails and preliminary deeds reviewed by Bloomberg Businessweek from Distributed Denial of Secrets, a nonprofit that preserves hacked and leaked materials believed to be in the public interest.

Akhmetov’s holding company, System Capital Management, or SCM, confirmed it it had made an acquisition in the development, though declined to provide details about the property or price. 

“SCM’s international investment portfolio has included a standalone premium real estate portfolio for over ten years, as has been publicly stated on multiple occasions,” it said in a statement. “Among its assets is the ‘Le Renzo’ project, in which we made an investment on the primary market in 2021.”

Premium real estate; half a billion dollars for an apartment is a different galaxy, especially sine most of the money was likely sourced from US taxpayers. The reported price would make it the biggest known home sale in history, outstripping the recent sale of developer Nick Candy’s Chelsea mansion for more than $350 million or the sale of a New York penthouse apartment to hedge fund manager Ken Griffin for about $240 million.

Perched on a rocky outcrop between France and Italy, Monaco has long been the priciest real-estate market in the world because of its small size and tax haven status. The Mareterra development was built up over a decade on land reclaimed from the sea and includes 114 luxury villas, townhouses and apartments set around gardens, a harbor and public promenade.

Akhmetov’s purchase agreement in the principality came just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war subsequently created upheaval within his business empire including attacks on energy assets in his home country.

Akhmetov was pivotal in arranging a lasting relationship between his employee and close friend Paul Manafort and former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovich, whose US-mediated ouster was the trigger for the eventual war between Ukraine and Russia.

The tycoon has a net worth of more than $7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His fortune is rooted in SCM, Ukraine’s largest industrial conglomerate with investments in metallurgy, mining and energy, in addition to property. 

Akhmetov has also been associated with a string of other ultra high-end property acquisitions in the past, including the 2019 purchase for €200 million of the historic Villa Les Cèdres on the French Riviera. The sprawling estate in the exclusive Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat was once owned by King Leopold II of Belgium.  In 2011, Akhmetov also reportedly bought a penthouse in London’s prestigious One Hyde Park development opposite the Harrods department store in Knightsbridge.

Mareterra properties have sold for prices surpassing the symbolic €100,000 a square meter, according to local property agents, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. One three-bedroom property is currently on the market for about €76 million. There are also rental listings for four and five-room apartments for €150,000 a month.

Official statistics show that the Larvotto district where Mareterra is located has become the principality’s most expensive in terms of estimated selling prices per square meter. The data doesn’t break out prices for properties in the development and these aren’t generally listed on broker websites.

“Monaco remains one of the world’s most exclusive and resilient residential markets,” Savills said in a report published in March, noting that it’s “shaped by structural scarcity and sustained high international demand.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/22/2026 – 00:05

Nobel Physicist Predicts ‘End-Date’ For Modern Civilization

Nobel Physicist Predicts ‘End-Date’ For Modern Civilization

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross has provided a sobering timeline for the potential end of modern civilisation, citing the escalating risks of nuclear war.

The 2004 Nobel laureate estimates that humanity may have roughly 35 years remaining before facing existential catastrophe from nuclear conflict.

In an interview, Gross detailed his assessment based on probability calculations similar to radioactive half-life models. He noted that after the Cold War, estimates put the annual chance of nuclear war at one percent. However, he believes the figure is now closer to two percent.

“Even after the Cold War ended, when we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates that there was a one percent chance of nuclear war every year,” Gross said.

He continued, “I feel it’s not a rigorous estimate that the chances are more likely two percent. So that’s a one-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of two percent per year, is about 35 years.”

Gross pointed to deteriorating global conditions as justification for his higher estimate. “Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper,” he stated.

He highlighted ongoing conflicts and nuclear proliferation. There are now nine nuclear powers, complicating arms control significantly. “Even three is infinitely more complicated than two,” Gross observed.

Recent developments include the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, with no major nuclear arms-control agreements signed in the past decade.

Gross also raised concerns about advancing technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence in weapons systems.

“The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart,” he said. “Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon.”

“It’s going to be very hard to resist making AI make decisions because it acts so fast,” Gross warned, noting that AI can sometimes “hallucinate” or produce inaccurate outputs.

He expressed deep concern for humanity’s future beyond scientific progress: “You asked me to think about the future, and I am obsessed the last few years, thinking about that, not the future of ideas and understanding nature, but of the survival of humanity.”

Despite the grim outlook, Gross expressed some optimism, stating of nuclear weapons: “We made them; we can stop them.”

The post quickly drew responses on X reflecting a range of views.

One took a philosophical stance: “There no end date.. people have been guessing.. for a long time.. when it our time it’s our time… an Asteroid can hit Tomorrow and wipe out the planet and we probably wouldn’t be able to process it… a renegade Volcano can explode setting off the next extinction event and we wouldn’t know what to do.. live your life.. it’s all you can do..”

Several users ironcially turned to AI for answers, with one writing: “Tell us the date and time @grok.” and another echoing: “@grok what’s the date and time?”

A different commenter expressed skepticism about the role of global elites: “If his thinks rich billionaires are going to allow nuclear war.. then take away his Nobel prize cause that not happening any time soon.”

Gross, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on asymptotic freedom in quantum chromodynamics, has shifted much of his recent focus to humanity’s long-term survival. His remarks connect the probability model directly to current events, including tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia.

By framing the risk in concrete yearly percentages and an expected timeframe, the physicist aims to translate abstract geopolitical dangers into something more immediate and calculable. Whether the two-percent annual figure holds or shifts with future developments remains to be seen, but the underlying message is clear: the window for preventive action is narrowing.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/21/2026 – 23:25

South Korea Curbs Syringe Hoarding As Iran War Cripples Supply

South Korea Curbs Syringe Hoarding As Iran War Cripples Supply

The downstream consequences from the Hormuz closure are popping up in the most unexpected places. 

According to Bloomberg, South Korea’s health regulators are stepping in to curb syringe hoarding as supply chain disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict threaten the availability of essential medical supplies.

While overall syringe production remains steady at about 4.5 million units a day – slightly above 2025 averages – hospitals report dwindling inventories, and online platforms show rising prices and empty virtual shelves, according to the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety.

Starting Monday the ministry will deploy 35 inspection teams, made up of police and medical device officials, to carry out a nationwide probe into intermediaries and other firms suspected of creating artificial shortages to drive up profits.

Syringes are the latest everyday item in South Korea to be hit by spillover from the Iran war, which has disrupted supplies of naphtha, a petroleum derivative used in plastics manufacturing. Products such as syringes and intravenous fluid bags rely on polypropylene and polyethylene, both derived from naphtha. 

Earlier, we discussed how US exports of ethane – which is also a key building block in plastics production – to China have soared, as naphtha supply remains indefinitely blocked as a result of the Hormuz closure. 

“We’ve seen a surge in speculative demand as hospitals and clinics are preemptively ordering extra stock in anticipation of price hikes, which is creating artificial bottlenecks,” said spokesperson Jung Chul-woo of the Korea Medical Devices Association, which represents more than 700 suppliers.

Shortages of Middle Eastern crude have already stoked supply concerns in Asia’s fourth-largest economy, threatening everything from garbage bags to popular instant noodle brands, while also contributing to a broader jet fuel crunch across the region.

After manufacturers raised concerns about potential naphtha shortages, the government called on domestic refiners to prioritize supply allocations for local companies for the next three months, an official at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said.  The ministry’s crackdown comes after a government mandate took effect April 14 banning the hoarding of syringes and needles. Withholding inventory or inflating prices is now punishable by up to three years in prison, or 100 million won ($68,000) in fines.

“Acts of hoarding medical devices essential to public health while exploiting a crisis are unacceptable,” Food and Drug Safety Minister Oh Yu-Kyoung said in a statement. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/21/2026 – 23:00

Trump Blinks Again, Unilaterally Extends Iran Ceasefire After Pakistan Talks Fail To Launch

Trump Blinks Again, Unilaterally Extends Iran Ceasefire After Pakistan Talks Fail To Launch

Summary

  • Trump unilaterally extends ceasefire after Vance calls off trip to Pakistan – says Iranian port blockade to remain in place. Tasnim says Iran’s ‘final decision’ is to not attend talks.

  • Trump warns: ‘Expect…bombs’ & urges Tehran “release women” said to be on death row.

  • Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM

  • As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.

  • Trump on Truth Social early Tuesday: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 30% · No 71%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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TACO Tuesday… Again: Ceasefire Extended in Trump TS Post

Can’t make this up… Trump unilaterally extends ceasefire, but says US Navy’s blockade of Iran’s ports will stay in place, after Islamabad talks collapse. Trump punts again… enjoy TACO Tuesday… we can say at least the bombing doesn’t look to resume, yet. To give more formality to it – or make it official, the White House also quickly put out Trump’s statement (and in a more presentable font) below. Initial reaction from Tehran:

  • IRAN NOT OFFICIALLY COMMENTING ON CEASEFIRE EXTENSION
  • IRAN’S POSITION WILL BE ANNOUNCED SUBSEQUENTLY

2nd Round Talks Collapse, Vance Not Traveling

Late afternoon headlines now confirm what was looking more and more inevitable as the hours passed but with no one side boarding planes to head to Islamabad: the Associated Press is reporting that Vice President Vance has called off the whole trip.

This also as Tasnim is reporting Iran’s “final decision” to not be in Pakistan Wednesday – the same day the two-week ceasefire formally comes to a close. Pakistan sources are meanwhile reporting that key negotiating figures are absent on the ground, and officials are said to be urging the sides to join a second-round summit.

And per Bloomberg: “Iran, for its part, told the mediators its delegation won’t leave Tehran before the blockade is lifted, according to officials familiar with the matter.”

US Delegation Trip for Talks ‘On Hold’

As VP Vance has been seen at the White House, clearly not en route to Pakistan for Iran talks, a hugely significant headline has sent oil up and stocks dumping more:

  • VP Vance’s Pakistan trip has been put on hold as Iran’s leadership remained divided over whether to participate in a new round of peace talks, via Axios
  • VANCE TRIP ON HOLD AS IRAN DIDN’T RESPOND TO US POSITIONS: NYT
  • VANCE TRIP TO PAKISTAN HAS NOT BEEN CANCLED: NYT

Newsquawk market reaction: Stocks see weakness, while oil and Dollar gain amid NYT reports that VP Vance’s diplomatic trip to Islamabad has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American negotiating positions.

Latest from Iran Foreign Minister:

Iran Last-Minute Major Demand

Talks are in peril as it’s unclear whether Vice President JD Vance intends to depart today for Pakistan, though Axios says he will. And now the Iranian side is imposing a new key demand to even get to the negotiating table – the lifting of the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports:

Iran has cast doubt over a second round of peace talks with the U.S. in Islamabad after refusing to publicly commit to attend the talks this week, as the expiration of a ceasefire looms.

Tehran had initially told mediators that it would send a delegation to Pakistan Tuesday for talks but later informed them that the U.S. would have to lift its blockade on Iran ports, according to officials.

Pakistan is urging the U.S. and Iran to extend the two-week cease-fire and continue to work toward a diplomatic solution. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected the lead the U.S. delegation.

President Trump has said he doesn’t intend to sign on to any ceasefire extension, and it expires by Wednesday. He has also warned the Iranians should “expect” bombs if no breakthrough can be found.

Trump to Iran: Release These Women

President Trump has suddenly pivoted to making the ‘humanitarian’ or ‘protect the protesters’ argument once again. He has just written on Truth Social the following words, while sharing the below image of eight Iranian women allegedly on death row:

To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Whether these women are actually about to be hanged is another, lingering question (there’s no legitimate sourcing confirming that a group of eight women are about to be hanged) – but clearly Trump is trying to inject some more leverage on the US side before the second-round Pakistan talks even get started.

He had quickly followed the above with the below message talking about having ‘obliterated’ Iran’s ‘nuclear dust’ to the point that the Iranians can’t get to it:

Trump: Iran Has No Choice, ‘Expect’ Bombs

President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that “they will end up with a great deal.” He added that “Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it,” and emphasized that the US is in “a strong negotiating position.”

He said the naval blockade “has been successful” and that US forces are “in control of the Strait.” Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying “there is not that much time” – but added that “Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal.”

He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is “much more powerful than it was a few weeks again” and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is “ready to go militarily” and that the world should “expect” bombing – in the instance there’s no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:

  • Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China’s Xi, says “that’s alright”.

Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air

Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield:

Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.

What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment.

If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first.

Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: “Iran’s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.” Latest:

Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran’s Ghalifab’s arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.

At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there’s not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.

But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said “lots of bombs” will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn’t plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran’s nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: “we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Another Vessel Interdiction by US Navy

US forces boarded a sanctioned tanker without resistance in the Indo-Pacific as part of operations targeting vessels linked to Iran, the Pentagon said on X. Initial statements did not indicate a precise location, and clearly it did not occur in the Hormuz Strait. Washington recently announced it is ready to seize ‘illicit’ Iran-linked vessels anywhere on the high seas. The move follows Sunday’s major boarding of an Iranian-flagged vessel, when a US warship opened fire as it attempted to transit the strait, striking and damaging the engine room.

CENTCOM: Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.



“As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate,” a CENTCOM post said. “International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”

Iran has been referring to this incident as a second fresh US violation of the ceasefire, amid the tit-for-tat accusations:

Meanwhile…

Iran Claims Successfully Defied US Blockade

An Iranian oil tanker entered the territorial waters of Iran overnight after transiting the Arabian Sea with support from the country’s navy, according to the army, and as reported in NBC. Semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the vessel continued its route despite what it described as repeated warnings and threats from US forces enforcing a Trump-ordered blockade on Iranian ports.

The tanker is now anchored at a southern Iranian port and has remained there for several hours, the report indicated. Tanker traffic remains at a tiny trickle, with 12 presumably US-approved vessels having made it through in the past 24 hours.

A sense of normalcy returns to Iran as countdown to Wednesday expiration of 2-week ceasefire weighs heavy…

There are even reports that Iran is ready to open up domestic air travel once again, but that could soon prove short-lived as President Trump’s threats keep coming, and given the unlikelihood that Pakistan talks will in the end succeed.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/21/2026 – 22:15

From Tank Rides To Overseeing Missile Tests: Kim Jong Un’s Teenage Daughter Prepped As Likely Successor

From Tank Rides To Overseeing Missile Tests: Kim Jong Un’s Teenage Daughter Prepped As Likely Successor

Longtime North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a test launch of missiles equipped with multiple reentry vehicles, a move that drew limited international attention despite its escalation risk.

“The purpose of the test-fire is to verify the characteristics and power of cluster bomb warhead and fragmentation mine warhead applied to the tactical ballistic missile,” North Korean state media reported Sunday. “Five tactical ballistic missiles, launched towards the target area around an island about 136 km away, struck the area of 12.5~13 hectares with the very high density, fully displaying their combat might.”

Kim’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, attended the launch – the latest in a series of recent public appearances alongside her father – a trend which has only intensified speculation about his succession planning.

Just several weeks ago, his daughter was filmed and photographed enjoying a battle tank ride alongside her father. Per prior reporting in the NY Times:

It seems like a familiar rite of passage: a dad teaching his daughter to drive. Except in this case, the girl is at the helm of a hulking battle tank, her head sticking out from the driver’s hatch, while the father — the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un — reclines on the hull behind her.

The video and photographs of the girl, Kim Ju-ae, who is believed to be around 13, apparently driving the heavily armed vehicle during a military exercise, were published last month by North Korean state media. It was the latest in a series of public appearances that have fueled speculation that she is being groomed to succeed her father.

That theory has gained added credence from South Korea’s spy agency, which now believes Ju-ae has officially been chosen to succeed her father, South Korean lawmakers briefed on the matter said on Monday. They added that the agency’s analysis was based on “credible intelligence” rather than circumstantial context.

In the tank video, Mr. Kim is shown riding on the hull, smiling and occasionally leaning down to speak to his daughter, who is looking straight ahead.

A South Korean lawmaker subsequently saw in the whole scene “an intent to highlight Ju-ae’s military exceptionality” and “dilute skepticism of a female heir.”

Trump and Kim met three times between 2018 and 2020, but talks collapsed without an agreement – and this was followed by a period marked by rising tensions under Biden.

North Korea’s freshly conducted the test reportedly utilized fragmentation-style munitions after Iran deployed similar systems against Israel. Missiles carrying cluster or fragmenting warheads can overwhelm and evade advanced air defense systems.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/21/2026 – 22:10