Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

UK taxpayers are forking out £629 million a year to house 10,487 foreign national offenders in British prisons — a bill that could pay for 16,500 police officers or 15,000 NHS nurses.

While Labour claims it’s deporting record numbers, an ex-prison governor has torn into the “staggering” cost and the “incredibly slow process” that leaves dangerous foreign criminals draining public resources instead of being sent home. 

This is the direct result of years of open-borders policies that prioritise criminals’ “rights” over British safety.

‘We’ve got to persuade countries to take these individuals back.’

Reform UK’s Prisons Advisor Vanessa Frake reacts as GB News finds 10,487 foreign offenders in Britain are costing taxpayers £629 million a year. pic.twitter.com/VRyPpaOlXf

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 5, 2026

Reform UK’s Prisons Adviser and former prison governor Vanessa Frake laid it out clearly on GB News. “The cost to this country for foreign national prisoners is staggering,” she said. “It’s a very long, drawn-out process, which kind of goes from three main areas.”

Frake detailed the excuses that keep foreign offenders here: “The problem is a lack of identity documents for these people. Quite often they get rid of their passports, so the Home Office then has to write to the country that they originate from, and that process is very slow.”

“Sometimes the country refuses. And there are of course the ECHR claims. Those under Article 8, right to life, right to family for those who have family in this country and of course, there is administration errors as well,” Frake further explained.

She added that even recent deals fall short. “They’ve just done a deal with Albania to send 200 prisoners back, but that comes with certain conditions, like improving their prison service, giving them electric Volkswagens, etcetera.” 

Britain’s ‘staggering’ cost of foreign nationals in UK prisons torn apart by ex-prison governorhttps://t.co/9k4F9JwdOT

— GB News (@GBNEWS) May 5, 2026

Frake noted the daily cost disparity: “It costs something like £109 a day in this country to keep a foreign national in prison, and we’re going to give the Albanians £32 a day, so it’s still not quick.”

Albania tops the list of foreign national prisoners, followed by Ireland and Poland. Yet Frake’s blunt conclusion was that Britain can’t simply load them onto planes. “We’re not going to get away with it by just putting them on a plane, we’ve got to persuade these countries to take these individuals back.”

This isn’t an isolated failure. It’s the pattern. Britain has repeatedly let violent offenders and known extremists stay or walk free despite clear red flags.

Take the most recent case of a Somali terrorist in London who previously stabbed police officers, and was a known extremist.

Essa Suleiman, who arrived as a child and holds British citizenship, was convicted in 2008 for stabbing two officers and a police dog. Referred to Prevent in 2020 as an extremist, he was still free to attempt to murder two Jewish people in Golders Green last month. 

Leftists seem more concerned with how police roughly handled the terrorist, however.

In another case, Al-Qaeda-inspired plotter Shah Rahman, was convicted for planning to bomb the London Stock Exchange, but can’t be sent back to Bangladesh because an immigration judge ruled it would breach his Article 3 human rights against “torture or inhuman treatment.” 

He even married a woman banned from Britain for life over ISIS material. 

In Edinburgh a reported Somali migrant went on a knife rampage, smashing a shop and stabbing victims near a school. 

Council leader Cllr Jane Meagher responded by praising Edinburgh’s “diversity” as its “biggest strength” and calling for more “tolerance.” 

In another example, Zahid Iqbal, who plotted to bomb an Army base using an Al-Qaeda manual and a toy-car IED, was freed three years early despite warnings and prior recall for breaching conditions. 

How many more are there like this — released from prison or previously charged with serious crimes — now roaming around free?

The Ministry of Justice claims more than 8,700 foreign offenders have been removed since July 2024. Yet the prisons remain full of them, the costs keep climbing, and the public keeps paying the price for a system rigged against its own people.

This growing insecurity is now reflected in public sentiment. According to a major survey, four in five parents (80%) fear their daughters will grow up feeling unsafe in public in Britain, with 40% believing this will happen at an earlier age than it did for them. 

Most parents fear daughters will grow up unsafe in public

Read more 🔗 https://t.co/S6DhQspyoQ

— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 5, 2026

The solution offered?

In Dumfries, Scotland, schoolgirls were handed rape alarms after repeated reports of asylum seekers stalking and photographing them — the authorities’ answer to the problem instead of stopping the influx. 

This is what unchecked mass immigration and weak deportation rules deliver: British taxpayers funding foreign criminals while violent threats walk the streets. Real border control means ending the excuses, scrapping the ECHR vetoes, and putting British safety first — before the bill gets any bigger.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Novo Nordisk shares jumped as much as 9% in Copenhagen, suggesting the stock may finally be bottoming out after a vicious multi-year bear market. The move followed the Danish drugmaker’s decision to raise its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit, citing solid momentum in Wegovy sales.

Novo now expects full-year sales and profit declines of around 12%, down from a previous forecast of around 13%. The upgraded outlook was “driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales,” according to the company.

Here’s a snapshot of the new full-year forecast, courtesy of Bloomberg:

• Sees adjusted change in sales at constant exchange rates -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -7.63% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted change in operating profit at constant FX -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -8.26%

The key bright spot was momentum in the Wegovy pill:

• Wegovy pill was launched in the US on 5 January 2026, and for the week ending 17 April, total weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000. Coupled with total prescriptions for Q1 2026 of around 1.3 million and now more than 2 million since launch, it marks the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the US. Q1 2026 sales for the Wegovy pill reached DKK 2,256 million, impacted by pre-launch pipeline fill with wholesalers and telehealth partners.

• Pending regulatory decisions, the first Wegovy pill launches outside the US are expected during the second half of 2026.

“We have seen more than 1 million people using the Wegovy pill,” CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts on an earnings call earlier. He noted that patients are switching from competing products, with “limited cannibalization” of Novo’s other drugs.

Still, Novo’s overall business remains under pressure. First-quarter sales fell 10% to 70.1 billion Danish kroner, while adjusted operating profit dropped 15%. Diabetes drug sales fell 18%, with Ozempic hitting its lowest level in two years.

Novo is trying to regain momentum after losing market share to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound injection.

Novo shares in Copenhagen jumped as much as 9%. Shares have been locked in a vicious, nearly two-year bear market, down 70% from their peak.

Analyst commentary, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Barclays (equal weight)

• Oral Wegovy was “off to a strong start,” analyst James Gordon writes in a note.

• Sees questions on supply capacity when the pill launches in other countries, expected in 2H

• Sees FY consensus expectations being increased by low single- digits

BMO Capital Markets (market perform)

• The Wegovy pill “makes a splash” in its debut, analyst Evan Seigerman writes in a note.

• It’s encouraging that roughly 15%-16% of pill patients are filling scripts for the highest dosages.

• This “could be a leading indicator for improved revenue going forward, given their higher price.”

• Wegovy and Ozempic injectables also beat expectations, “showing more resilience in the face of competition within class”

Jefferies (hold)

• Although the 2026 guidance was nudged higher, it still leaves consensus expectations at the upper end of the range, analyst Michael Leuchten writes in a note.

• The change in guidance probably won’t have a positive impact on consensus estimates.

• It could actually drag pretax profit and EPS expectations down a couple of percent.

Intron Health (sell)

• Sales beat expectations by 1%, driven by Wegovy pill stocking of ~$125m, analyst Naresh Chouhan writes in a note

• Meanwhile, gross margin was 30 bps worse than expected

Morgan Stanley (equal weight)

• 1Q sales were a “small” beat, driven by the Wegovy pill — helped by stocking — and international operations, analyst Thibault Boutherin writes in a note

• Lower operating costs helped the adjusted EBIT beat

• Still sees the bottom end of the guidance as “conservative” and expects the company to finish the year “in the upper half of the guidance.”

Did Novo finally bottom?

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on May 4 that there needs to be a stronger European element in NATO, as the United States reconsiders its relationship with the defense alliance and pivots toward other security priorities domestically and globally.

Starmer acknowledged during a panel discussion at the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia, that, in terms of defense and security, Europe has “got behind over many years, now.”

“We’re not where we need to be,” he said.

The British prime minister alluded to the impact of the Ukraine–Russia war and, more recently, the Iran conflict on global security and economic stability, saying that Europe, especially, had to come together around these issues.

“There needs to be a stronger European element in NATO. I have no doubt about that,” he said.

Starmer said that while there needed to be a stronger European element in defense and security, “we’ve been behind the curve for too long: over dependencies, over reliance, and assumptions about the world that we live in—they’ve gone.”

“We now need to lead out of this, and we need to do it at pace because these impacts are real,” Starmer said.

“The alliances that are under tension are real, and how we, as a group of leaders, respond now will likely define what goes on for many years—arguably for a generation.”

US Reorients Defense Priorities

U.S. President Donald Trump has long maintained that Europe should rely less on the United States for its security and that European NATO allies should increase their defense spending. This approach was formally accepted by NATO when, in June 2025, allies agreed to raise defense spending targets from 2 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent by 2035.

The United States has also reoriented its defense and security priorities.

The Pentagon on Jan. 23 released its National Defense Strategy, which outlines the U.S. plan to prioritize homeland defense, including by “defending America’s interests throughout the Western Hemisphere,” according to the document.

It also said the United States would encourage partners in other parts of the world, including Europe, to take primary responsibility for their own defense “with critical but limited support from U.S. forces.”

Tension Over Support in Iran Conflict

In recent weeks, Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of support from NATO allies during the Iran war, prompting him to consider pulling out of the alliance.

Trump told British newspaper The Telegraph in an interview published on April 1 that his request for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz was a test that allies did not pass.

The president’s remarks followed similar comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio said on March 30 that one of the benefits of U.S. membership in the alliance is that it gives Washington access to station troops, aircraft, and arms in other parts of the world—including much of Europe.

However, during Operation Epic Fury, “we have countries like Spain, a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it, denying us the use of our—of their bases,” Rubio said, adding that “there are other countries that have done that as well.”

Rubio said that while he supported NATO, his backing of the alliance was based on the assumption that there are reciprocal arrangements.

“But if NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” he said.

This week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that NATO members had received Trump’s message about agreements allowing the United States to access European bases.

“Yes, ​there has been some disappointment from the U.S. side, but Europeans have listened,” Rutte told reporters at the same European Political Community summit in ​Armenia on May 4.

“They are now making sure that all the bilateral ​basing agreements are being implemented.”

Summary

• Trump announce ‘pause’ to Project Freedom amid optimism of a “complete and final” deal with Iran; French ship confirmed hit in cruise missile attack, crew members injured

• Rubio declares ‘offensive’ actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.

• UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources – however which Iran denies doing – instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn’t declared end of ceasefire.

• Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran’s Monday operations were “all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.“

• Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.

• Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.

The odds of a peace deal being completed just jumped…

*  *  *

Trump Pauses Project Freedom

There is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.

Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz. 

Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):

Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally…

…the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran…

…we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. 

WTI crude futures are testing back below $100…

Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip…

Don’t hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side.

Additionally late Tuesday, a French cargo ship was confirmed hit in a missile attack, injuring crew members:

A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship’s Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News.

The hit on the CGM San Antonio — which is owned by a French firm — took place late Tuesday evening local time, the officials said. The ship was near Dubai as of midday on Tuesday, but it is not clear whether the vessel has moved since then, according to public ship tracking data.

Rubio Declares Conflict in New Stage

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced Tuesday afternoon that offensive stage of Iran war is ‘over’. He further said that ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz are facing a humanitarian crisis and accused Iran of holding the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is denying that it attacked the United Arab Emirates, with the foreign ministry saying its ‘defensive actions’ were ‘exclusively directed at the U.S.’

Operation Epic Fury is over, now Project Freedom.

The remarks were issued just as a new attack is unfolding on a foreign cargo ship in the strategic waterway:

UKMTO WARNING 055-26

Click here to read the full warning⤵️https://t.co/J5B2EilFQE#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/EGcKTpsHtN

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) May 5, 2026

Reaction in oil…

…as the goalposts keep shifting:

BREAKING: REPORTER: But 10 weeks in, are we any closer to get rid of Iran’s nuclear materials?

RUBIO: They no longer have a conventional shield. They have no Navy left. They don’t have an Air Force. That’s a very substantial achievement. That was the purpose of this. pic.twitter.com/bD33XPARVH

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) May 5, 2026

Trump Asked Whether Ceasefire is Dead

A revealing exchange in the Oval Office strongly suggests that even amid a second Iranian attack wave on the UAE Tuesday, the White House is unwilling to say that the ceasefire has collapsed – also given there’s yet been no direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces: 

President Trump, taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, would not specify what Iran would need to do to violate the cease-fire. Asked by a reporter what would constitute a violation, considering that the country has fired on U.S. ships several times, Trump said: “Well, you’ll find out, because I’ll let you know.”

He added that “they know what to do,” and “they know what not to do, more importantly.”

Earlier the Pentagon clearly indicated that the ceasefire is still active, from Washington’s point of view. 

The Iranian government is meanwhile trying to bat down rumors of a division between the presidency and the IRGC/military apparatus.

Second UAE Attack Wave Active

The country’s Ministry of Defense has just released official statement of inbound projectiles out of Iran:

• The UAE’s air defenses are currently dealing with missile and drone attacks originating from Iran.
• The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE’s air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
• UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV’s

Air defense systems are currently responding to a missile threat. Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates. pic.twitter.com/1srVYlQgI0

— NCEMA UAE (@NCEMAUAE) May 5, 2026

There are meanwhile reports of explosions being heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island, and questions raised about scenes like the following:

Fire at a commercial complex in Andisheh, #Iran, which is in Tehran Province. pic.twitter.com/JxSwgSoRng

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) May 5, 2026

Is Ceasefire Over? Pentagon Answers Definitively 

In the Tuesday morning Pentagon presser led by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine stated very clearly that the US views Monday’s escalation (the attack on UAE and some vessels in the Strait of Hormuz) as actions which are “all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.“

The Trump administration has argued that it doesn’t have to seek congressional approval to continue military operations beyond a 60-day limit because there is a ceasefire in effect. But the question raised Monday is: does the fresh Iranian cross-Gulf mark the end of ceasefire? Clearly the Pentagon and Trump administration are saying no. “No adversary should mistake our current restraint for a lack of resolve,” Caine then emphasized.

The ceasefire with Iran is not over, according to U.S. Secretary of War Hegseth.

Project Freedom is “separate and distinct” from Operation Epic Fury, Hegseth added.

The Iranian fire is recent days was described as “harassing” and “below the threshold of restarting major combat…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) May 5, 2026

Below are some of the latest top developments from various MSM sources:

—Trump’s desire to end the Iran war is being put to the test after Tehran fired at American warships on Monday and violently disrupted a U.S. effort to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Trump wants to avoid a fresh bombing campaign, officials say, preferring a negotiated end to Tehran’s nuclear advancements and the weekslong war that has raised gas prices and hurt the global economy. (WSJ)

—U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year. The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium. (RTRS)

—Trump says war could stretch 3 more weeks, claims US ‘already won.’ (ABC)

Below: Pentagon slide in Tuesday’s briefing showing Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping: “Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships since the ceasefire was announced” (Gen. Caine).

And this puts things in perspective…

In a Pentagon briefing, top U.S. General
Dan Caine says Iranian attacks on shipping and U.S. vessels is currently below the threshold of restarting major combat operations. (This included 9 attacks on commercial vessels and 10 against U.S. forces) pic.twitter.com/CU0gQVSvzJ

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) May 5, 2026

Internal Iranian Schism Over Monday UAE Attacks(?)

There’s a lot of chatter that Iran’s civilian government and the IRGC are at direct odds over Monday’s attack on UAE, which resulted in a large blaze at the Fujairah oil facility and the three injured Indian nationals. Al Jazeera for example observes:

By targeting the facility, Iran is sending a direct message to UAE saying: “We can target your most important economic points even if you think you can get around the Strait of Hormuz,” said Turak.

Iran’s government has not confirmed or denied responsibility for the attack. Turak noted there are “quite contradictory” statements coming out of Iran, however.

And Saudi-funded Iran International claims the following dramatic schism and internal rupture over the risky cross-Gulf operation, which could signal the end of the ceasefire (though curiously President Trump himself has not said it is broken):

Exclusive information obtained by Iran International points to a growing clash between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and its military leadership over Monday’s escalation in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the United Arab Emirates.

According to sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations, Pezeshkian has expressed strong anger at actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi, describing missile and drone strikes on the UAE as “completely irresponsible” and carried out without the government’s knowledge or coordination.

Pezeshkian is said to have described the IRGC’s approach to escalating tensions with regional countries as “madness,” warning of potentially irreversible consequences.

This certainly isn’t the first time that Iran International, a London-based publication seen as also ‘close’ to Israeli intelligence, has alleged severe internal division in Iran’s wartime decision-making, but the viewpoint is beginning to be echoed and reported on more broadly.

Two US Navy Destroyers Successfully Transit Strait

To review of Monday’s major escalation, US Central Command said its forces had intercepted missiles targeting US Navy and commercial vessels, and also said American helicopters sank six small Iranian boats that officials said were targeting civilian vessels under American protection.

And also came a big milestone in terms of Washington aims to enforce Trump’s newly announced Project Freedom plan to provide military escort for ships through Hormuz. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf on Monday and overnight after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials.

CBS reports, “The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage.” The report underscores further that “Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck.”

‘No Military Solution’

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has issued an interesting statement decrying Trump’s attempt at escalation in Hormuz, warning that there’s no “military solution” to the crisis, while warning the US, UAE, and other regional countries against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.

“Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis,” Araghchi wrote on X. “As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock,” to top Iranian diplomat asserted.

Also of note is that Araghchi will travel to Beijing on Tuesday for discussions with his Chinese counterpart. “During the visit he will meet his Chinese counterpart [Wang Yi] to discuss bilateral ties and regional and international developments,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Below: Graham says you either pay now or you pay later. “They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.”

Lindsey Graham says Americans deserve higher gas prices because many doubted Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon.

Graham says you either pay now or you pay later.

“They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.” https://t.co/1dDx1PVACv pic.twitter.com/Uma2pETYt7

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) May 5, 2026

Officially at least, Beijing has a policy of “noninterference” in other countries’ internal affairs, and has claimed to not be involved in the Iran conflict – while Washington has consistently accused China of providing intelligence to Tehran, and even possibly military hardware or weapons.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s presidential secretary Choi Soung-ah says “the safety of international maritime routes and freedom of navigation should be protected under international law” and that Seoul is “watching President Trump’s remark related to this,” according Reuters. This after ann explosion and fire on a South Korean-operated ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which Trump blamed on an Iranian attack.

More Geopolitical Developments

via Newsquawk…

•  US President Trump said Iran war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.
• IRGC military source told Tasnim that the US shot two small boats carrying civilians instead of shooting IRGC speedboats.
• “Iranian Defense Council member Ali Akbar Ahmadian: Our security does not accept negotiations, and Washington obstructed global navigation and energy security”, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian has requested an immediate and emergency meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei to ask him to stop IRGC attacks on Persian Gulf nations and prevent a recurrence, Iran International reported.
• Pezeshkian reportedly outlined that the IRGC attack on the UAE occurred without the knowledge of the government.
• US intelligence suggests strikes from the start of the war led to limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, Reuters sources say.
• US State Department official to Al Jazeera said the President is clear that direct communication between Israel and Lebanon is the best path toward peace; We are working to prepare the necessary conditions and political momentum to move forward with this
• Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials who spoke to CBS News; “Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them”.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said its subsidiary’s US-flagged vehicle carrier, Alliance Fairfax, exited the Gulf via Strait of Hormuz on May 4th.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent had a “fierce row” with UK Chancellor Reeves last month over her outspoken criticism of the Iranian war, FT sources say.
• US CENTCOM posted “US warships and aircraft deployed to the Middle East are enforcing the naval blockade against Iran while executing Project Freedom to support the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.”.
• US officials say military closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.
• US President Trump reiterates he feels Europe has been “very disappointing”.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted “As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.”.
• Full post:”Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis. As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”.
• Mehr News Agency said a fire broke out in two commercial ships and spread to two others in Dayyer port south of Iran; cause not clear.
• “Explosions were heard tonight in the port of Bandar Abbas (Iran) and on Qassem Island (Iran) in the Persian Gulf”, N12 journalist reported citing sources in Iran.
• IRGC political deputy said traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will only be done with Iran’s permission, ISNA reported; “Any kind of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, if it is from the enemy, will be met with a decisive and crushing response”.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being solidified.
• Actions of the US and allies have threatened the security of shipping and energy.
• UNSC resolution prepared by the US, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait opens the door for potential enforcement measures, AsharqNews reported citing the resolution “to be distributed tomorrow”.

Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war. This is based on a 14-point, one-page memorandum that creates a 30-day negotiating window for a broader nuclear and Strait of Hormuz deal and follows President Trump’s announcement last night of “great progress” and a “complete and final” deal nearing. 

“The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.

Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began,” Axios wrote in the report.

Here are the key points:

• Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The duration is still under negotiation, with the U.S. pushing for 20 years, Iran offering five, and sources suggesting 12 to 15 years may be the likely spot.

• Iran would also pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, accept enhanced inspections, potentially halt underground nuclear facility operations, and possibly remove highly enriched uranium from the country.

• The U.S. would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

• Shipping restrictions through the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during the 30-day talks. If negotiations fail, U.S. forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.

Axios said talks are being led by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with top Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.

News of this sparked risk on in U.S. equity index futures, WTI fell to the $95-a-barrel handle, and U.S. Treasury yields dipped.

Market Response:

S&P500 Futs

Brent Futs

WTI Futs

UST10Y

BTC/USD

Polymarket:

*Developing…

Via City AM,

• Ministers are expected to warn Britons that flight cancellations could disrupt summer holiday plans.

• Allianz Trade research says the UK is especially exposed to jet fuel shortages because of import dependence.

• Airlines are weighing cancellations, surcharges, and ticket price adjustments as fuel supply risks rise.

Ministers are set to warn the British public that flight cancellations will hit summer holiday plans as new research suggested that the UK is more exposed to jet fuel shortages than other European countries. 

Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, is set to tell Brits that there could be flight cancellations this year as she will talk up staycations, according to The Times. 

Her warnings will follow a prompt by Sir Keir Starmer that people would have to consider changing “where they go on holiday”. 

Trade experts have warned that the supply of kerosene was set to be hit by disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz. 

Michael O’Leary, the boss of Ryanair, Europe’s biggest airline, said rivals were “desperately” searching for flights to cancel. 

Some airlines have reportedly said that the UK could escape some of the worst effects of jet fuel shortages due to obtaining supplies from other countries.  

UK is ‘particularly vulnerable’ to jet fuel shortages

But research by Allianz Trade found the UK had Europe’s “most structurally exposed markets to jet-fuel shortages”. 

It said its heavy reliance on imports, albeit from countries outside of the Middle East, would leave the UK “particularly vulnerable” to supply shocks. 

“The UK,  Germany, France, and Italy show the largest shortfalls, underscoring their reliance on external supply to meet aviation demand,” trade experts said. 

“European  aviation activity is indirectly exposed not only to global oil price dynamics but also to geopolitical and logistical risks along  key supply routes, reinforcing the region’s dependence on external refining hubs for a fuel that is essential to long-haul  connectivity.”

The worst effects of flight disruption could come in late June and July, near the peak of summer travel. 

Ministers may be looking to discourage Britons from taking long-haul flights in contingency plans being drawn up, according to reports. 

Lufthansa Group has announced it will cancel 20,000 flights over the next six months, while Virgin Atlantic added a fuel surcharge and British Airways has warned of “pricing adjustments” to tickets.

Airlines UK, the trade body, said: “UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.”

We’ve been documenting that Ukraine has been demonstrating deeper targeting reach inside Russia, as several key oil sites have come under direct drone attack over several days and weeks, resulting in significant destruction.

Just in the last several days, Russian state media has recorded over 50 Ukrainian drone attacks targeting the country’s capital of Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin on Tuesday confirmed that since the start of this month, Ukrainian efforts to target the capital region have greatly increased. 

The distance of Moscow from the Ukrainian border is nearly 300 miles, but lately Ukraine has also demonstrated the ability of its long-range drones to target as far away as Perm and the Ural Mountains.

“The defense ministry’s air defense assets have downed yet another UAV. Emergency relief specialists are working at the scene, where the debris from the UAV landed,” Mayor Sobyanin stated.

And he detailed, per TASS, that “from May 2 to 5, the capital was attacked by 51 drones. In the current 24-hour period, 19 UAVs have been shot down.”

Also, one of Russia’s largest refineries came under fresh attack on Tuesday, with Oil Price reviewing the following:

One of Russia’s largest oil refineries, the 400,000 barrels-per-day Kirishi refinery southeast of St. Petersburg, was on fire early on Tuesday following drone attacks overnight, Bloomberg reports, citing satellite images from NASA.

According to satellite images taken on Tuesday by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System, the Kirishi refinery owned by oil producer Surgutneftegas and nearby areas were detected to emit heating anomalies which signal fires.

Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region where the refinery is located, posted on Telegram early on Tuesday that the fire at the Kirishi industrial zone has been localized, while the Kirishi refinery was the main target of the drone attacks overnight. The post did not confirm a hit on the refinery, only stating that it was targeted.

Initial footage widely circulating of the overnight attack on Kirishi:

The VNIIR-Progress facility in Cheboksary, Russia, was reportedly hit. It produces secure Kometa navigation modules used in Russian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

The Kirishinefteorgsintez (KINEF) refinery in Kirishi, Russia’s Leningrad region, was also struck.… pic.twitter.com/6Jp31QQCWd

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2026

Currently, the globe’s attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well. Earlier in the Ukraine war, these major refinery attacks would dominate world headlines, but at the moment they have remained in the background given the constant Iran-related news flow.

President Putin has lately communicated to Trump that he’s open to a ‘Victory Day’ ceasefire, a proposal the Kremlin said Washington has backed. Ukraine is meanwhile offering its own ceasefire, but on a different set of days, and the warring sides haven’t reached agreement.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

How does economic growth emerge? Let us turn to Ludwig von Mises, one of the defining economists of the 20th century – and paraphrase his idea: growth arises where private capital is guided in a free market by an undistorted price system. Prices signal scarcity and direct scarce resources to where they generate real value. When this system is distorted by ideological intervention, capital is misallocated – potential growth simply evaporates.

That is the theory. And there is no doubt that the reality of emerging economies has repeatedly confirmed the teachings of the Austrian School. Take Argentina, for example: the economic policy shift under President Javier Milei is leading to a rollback of the state and new private investment impulses. That is how it should be: the state as a rule-setting referee, not a player in the economy.

This thesis meets maximum resistance in German editorial offices. There prevails a staunchly statist spirit, a vulgar Hegelianism that regularly loses itself in the labyrinth of economic causality. As a reminder: Milei is the libertarian whom Chancellor Friedrich Merz and German media denounced as a far-right eccentric, accusing him of trampling on his own people. As said: ideologically blinded, intellectually shallow.

On Thursday, Handelsblatt presented its readers with the result of the marriage between green-statist ideology and editorial missionary zeal. In its morning briefing, the author made clear how she interprets the world: at the top, the all-knowing state; far below, the misguided, dependent individual. The piece appeared under the title “When Father State must save German growth” and stands as a case study of the spirit dominating German media. The individual counts for nothing, the state for everything. A hint of Orwell runs through these lines. They are meant to remind us that our economic fate now lies in the hands of an all-knowing federal government. Listening closely, one can still hear the fading odes of the press to former vice chancellor and manager of green chaos Robert Habeck.

Many people find it helpful to embed their existence into the prevailing ideology, thereby relieving themselves of existential responsibility. When this happens on a mass scale, a state within the state emerges – what we call the welfare state. Yet this attitude carries a problem: in journalism it obscures the search for the causes of the current crisis. Editorial work blurs the overregulation of our economy, the destruction of nuclear energy, and clientelist climate policy – together forming the broad delta of deindustrialization.

We are facing a media-historical phenomenon. Magazines such as manager magazin, Handelsblatt, WirtschaftsWoche, and even once-bourgeois papers like FAZ now only vaguely suggest through their names that they were once committed to economic analysis. Condensing tone, imagery, and reporting style, one can hardly escape the impression of a media phalanx of the Green Deal.

The shift in perspective has succeeded. Economic rationality has been replaced by an iron belief in the net-zero cult. For the socialists in editorial offices, a fortunate development – since it is tied to the expansion of a vast state apparatus, conveniently justifying long-term funding of their own activities within the framework of so-called democracy promotion. The state orders – the media deliver: all from a single mold, always in the tone of climate apocalypse.

Manager Magazin confirmed this week the suspicion that even business-oriented outlets operate as a media arm of the green extraction economy. Economics Minister Katherina Reiche, after her cautious criticism of the green subsidy cult, is already depicted on the cover as an oil-soaked fossil-era lobbyist. The rest: a cheer for the energy transition.

The media climax of kneeling before Father State came last year with the presentation of the so-called Draghi Plan. Former Italian prime minister and ECB president Mario Draghi outlined a program intended to lift the eurozone out of stagnation through massive state investment. The plan envisioned around €800 billion annually. Over at least five years, roughly five percent of European GDP would be politically directed. Draghi describes nothing less than a future EU in which economic dynamism is increasingly eroded by state control.

Those who followed media coverage of Draghi’s megalomania rarely encountered dissent. After decades of successful indoctrination – beginning in schools and continuing through universities and media transformed into socialist re-education matrices – this is hardly surprising. Brussels has now largely integrated the plan into the new seven-year budget. Between 2028 and 2034, around €2 trillion will pass through the hands of the Brussels bureaucracy – a remarkable joint success of political elites and their compliant media narrators.

That Draghi, Merz, and von der Leyen are leading us into a new form of socialism under bright daylight is not even up for debate – it is actively reinforced by media work. They pave the ever-widening road into a command economy with rising subsidies and taxes, ultimately resulting in a state quota well above 50 percent – socialism in all but name. The disappearance of market economy is accompanied by massive public-sector expansion: 205,000 new government jobs in just one year – public job creation under state flag.

Meanwhile, the value-creating part of society is bleeding out, while the transformation project coldly smiles at the population. Declining productivity, industrial flight from Germany – a program of impoverishment for the private sector, which was openly mocked by Handelsblatt on Thursday. “Bloodless,” the author called it. Once again, the state must rescue it and pull the chestnuts from the fire – a remarkable worldview given fiscal, regulatory, and energy realities.

You may not notice it – neither at Handelsblatt, manager magazin, Die Zeit, Süddeutsche Zeitung, nor public broadcasting – but their persistent defensive effort, the immunization of the state against criticism, is freezing society in place.

The media form a phalanx shielding government representatives, administration, and the ideological party apparatus from reality. In doing so, they become complicit in enabling the ongoing destruction of the economy. The longer the green transformation unfolds its devastating effects, the more capital and resources are burned – resources needed for rebuilding after the green-statist catastrophe.

Yet nothing happens by chance. Chancellor Merz, like his predecessors Scholz and Merkel, together with the Brussels power cartel, is pursuing a scorched-earth policy. A return to market economy is to be prevented at all costs, despite being the only genuinely democratic and meritocratic form of economic organization. It stands in the way of building green socialism.

Over time, the state apparatus has succeeded in establishing an incentive structure that absorbs people through migration, public employment, or welfare systems into dependency. In such a climate, anyone who raises their voice against the paternal state inevitably stands against the majority – and must expect a storm of outrage.

And as long as Greta Thunberg’s cohorts at Fridays for Future dance in the streets and parts of the population celebrate economic decline as degrowth progress, this children’s party is far from over. A blurred hope remains in the darkest night of the emerging socialism.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Biotech entrepreneur and former 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy just beat the pants off of political newcomer Casey Putsch (R) by a margin of 82% – 18% (approximately 530,000 votes to 116,000) in the Ohio gubernatorial primary. 

The win positions Ramaswamy to face Democrat Amy Acton, the former Ohio health director who led the state’s COVID-19 response and won her party’s nomination unopposed, in the November general election. Acton’s running mate is former Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper.

The Republican primary lacked suspense after Ramaswamy, 40, secured early endorsements from President Trump and the state party. Still, the scale of his victory surprised some observers given his relatively recent entry into Ohio politics.

Ramaswamy announced his candidacy in February 2025 after stepping down from his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Trump administration initiative he co-led with Elon Musk. He has framed his gubernatorial bid as a natural extension of that work – bringing a “startup mindset” to Columbus to make Ohio a national leader in innovation, economic growth, and government efficiency.

His campaign was exceptionally well-funded. Ramaswamy raised more than $25 million from donors and contributed another $25 million of his own money, ending the primary with over $30 million in cash on hand — resources he used for a $10 million television ad blitz in the final weeks. The spending underscored his determination to lock down the nomination early and build momentum for the fall.

Still, the scale of his victory was notable given lingering divisions within the GOP base over one of his signature policy positions: H-1B visas.

Calling the system ‘badly broken,’ Ramaswamy has called for replacing it with a pure merit-based system designed to attract the world’s top STEM and technical talent, insisting this is essential for U.S. competitiveness against China – except he shat on Americans in saying so. In a widely discussed December 2024 post, he attributed American companies’ preference for foreign-born engineers partly to cultural factors, writing that the U.S. has “venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long” and that immigrant families often prioritize achievement more rigorously than “normal” American households.

Critics, including some Trump supporters and anti-H-1B voices, accused him of wanting to displace American workers and favoring foreign (particularly Indian) talent. His primary opponent Casey Putsch and online influencers amplified claims that Ramaswamy’s companies had previously used the program (filing for 29 H-1B visas historically) while publicly criticizing it. The backlash intensified after Trump’s endorsement, with some MAGA accounts posting comments like “Better work on your H-1B visa.”

His brief tenure at DOGE ended when he resigned to pursue the Ohio governorship, a move some critics viewed as opportunistic but which supporters praised as prioritizing state-level impact. Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement on the night Ramaswamy launched his campaign gave him instant credibility with the GOP base.

Democratic Side and General Election Outlook

Amy Acton, 60, has positioned her campaign around affordability – targeting inflation, gas prices, and housing costs. The fact that she was a lockdown nazi during COVID, however, remains a potential vulnerability in a state that has trended strongly Republican in recent cycles.

Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor in nearly two decades. Yet early polling has suggested the general election could be closer than the state’s partisan lean might indicate, particularly if national headwinds affect Trump-aligned candidates or if Acton successfully mobilizes suburban and independent voters.

The race is already shaping up to be one of the most expensive gubernatorial contests in Ohio history.

Authored ‘No1’ via Gold and Geopolitics substack,

Three people sent me Richard Medhurst’s petrogas-dollar piece this week. I read it. Twice even.

There’s a lot in there that I feel is correct.

The chronology of the Levantine Basin deals.

Cheney’s 2001 National Energy Policy.

The roughly $35 billion of Chevron contracts signed across Israel, Syria, Greece, and Cyprus in the past six months.

None of that is in dispute.

The piece is, on the facts, broadly accurate.

What I think though is that the reading of those facts is faulty.

Some history. 

In 1944 Bretton Woods pegged the dollar to gold and made it the world’s reserve currency. In 1971 Nixon unpegged it. Three years later, Kissinger negotiated the Saudi arrangement that pegged it to something else – oil. The petrodollar was born. Everyone needed oil, oil was priced in dollars, thus everyone needed dollars.

Medhurst’s thesis is that the same trick is being repeated, with gas as the new anchor.

The Petrogas-Dollar. Same architecture, new commodity.

But gas isn’t oil.

Oil is fungible at planetary scale. One global market, one rough price band with quality differentials. Tankers go anywhere where there’s a port and a refinery. Every country needs it. Every industry uses it. Almost every modality of transport runs on it.

But gas is regional. LNG requires specialised liquefaction terminals on the export side, cryogenic tankers in transit, and regasification infrastructure on the import side. Each piece takes years and billions to build. Pipeline gas is captive to the geography of the pipe. Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM regularly trade at multiples of each other for what is nominally the same molecule. In 2022, European gas hit roughly 25x the US price – that’s the market telling you that there is no single global gas market, just regional ones tethered by expensive bottlenecks.

Anchoring a settlement currency to gas isn’t a step up from oil in my opinion.

It’s a step down.

Less universal demand, less liquid market, more infrastructure dependency, narrower counterparty base. If oil was the commodity that justified the petrodollar’s reach, gas cannot replace it without shrinking the regime it’s supposed to anchor.

Then there’s what’s been happening to the dollar itself. The moment Western powers froze $300 billion of Russian central bank reserves in 2022, every neutral reserve manager on earth received an unscheduled lesson in what “safe” actually meant in practice.

That lesson is still being absorbed, and the absorption is showing up in central bank gold buying at multi-decade highs, parallel payment rails being onboarded, sovereign Treasury holdings declining year over year.

None of it is dramatic. But all of it is compounding.

So the actual picture Medhurst is painting: a fading anchor (oil-and-dollar) being half-replaced by a structurally narrower one (gas-and-dollar), sitting on top of a settlement currency that’s slowly losing the trust required to function as one in the first place.

That’s a regression on two axes at the same time. Not a strategic plan.

The successor isn’t oil-and-dollar. It sure as ain’t a gas-and-dollar. By elimination of every other alternative, it will come back to gold.

Let’s start with Russia.

That’s where his documentary opens.

“The most severe logistical disruption in modern Russian history”. 40% of seaborne export capacity disabled. Production cuts of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April. (Not an interpretation, those numbers come from OPEC’s monthly report).

The Sirius Report, which tracks vessel movements rather than quotas, has Russian seaborne crude exports flat at 3.5 million barrels per day in April. The Pacific terminals that got hit in the spring strikes are fully recovered by now. The Baltic ports? Kept on loading. Whatever the bombing campaign was supposed to accomplish, it has accidentally functioned as a renovation programme.

The 300-400k figure measures voluntary discipline within the OPEC+ quota framework. It is not a damage assessment. Russia produced slightly less in April because the cartel asked them to, not because there’s a NATO destroyer parked outside Murmansk.

What did happen is that Europe outsourced the demand. They sanctioned Russia. For the 20th time now I guess, because the previous 19 were so successful.

But because even Europe still needs oil, they then turned around and bought the exact same molecules via Indian and Chinese refineries. Who bought it from Russia. At a discount. And mostly in local currencies.

Plus, they sold it at a premium. To Europe. That sanctioned that exact same oil. Great job virtue signaling.

Iran tells a similar story. The piece argues the blockade is starving China of its third-largest oil supplier. TankerTrackers reported on April 24 that Iran exported more oil in the first three weeks of April than in the entire month of March. The blockade has tightened since. WSJ documented loadings dropping in the second half of April, and Project Freedom only formally launched at CENTCOM this morning with 15,000 personnel and over 100 aircraft. The screws are turning, real consequences are landing. (🦗 sidenote: I only hear crickets… 🦗 Still waiting for what news will turn up… 🦗)

But Iran went into this war producing 1.1 million barrels per day at $47 a barrel. Through most of it, production has run around 1.5 million at $110.

I think Trump is pissed right now that he did not receive a “thank you” card yet…

Another argument landed on Saturday – which is after Medhurst’s piece landed. But it doesn’t fit the frame of the article, so I doubt it’ll be added.

US Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical and four Chinese teapot refineries on Friday over Iranian crude purchases.

Hengli isn’t just a teapot. It’s strategic national infrastructure. 280 billion RMB was invested with a 20 million tons annual refining capacity. It’s one of China’s seven major petrochemical bases. Plus the non-sanctioned parent group is the world’s largest shipbuilder.

Now on Saturday, China’s Ministry of Commerce activated the 2021 Blocking Statute. For the first time ever. Chinese firms and individuals are now legally prohibited from recognizing, implementing, or complying with the US sanctions.

Compliance has been removed as a choice.

“Rock, meet hard place” or something like that?

I doubt this will feature in Medhurst’s 25-year plan any time soon.

To me this looks like a reactive escalation against the Treasury announcement.

And THAT is the recurring shape of this whole thing. Every sanction tightens the parallel system. Every escalation removes another counterparty from the dollar rails. This theory isn’t some 5D strategic genius.

It’s an adaptation. Metabolic. Washington swings at whatever part it wants today… And that system adapts.

Bank of Kunlun was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2012 for its Iran-related dealings, in what must have seemed like a good idea at the time. The sanctioning was the strategic move. The consequence – as it so often is – was unintended. By cutting Kunlun out of the dollar system, Treasury also cut its remaining dollar exposure to zero, making it the perfect institutional vehicle for yuan-denominated Iran trade.

For thirteen years now, Iranian oil has flowed to Chinese teapot refineries through Kunlun, settled in RMB, entirely outside SWIFT. Iran can’t easily spend the accumulated yuan in dollars, so it likely converts the surplus to physical gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Iranian oil → yuan → gold. The loop has been running since the year Obama was re-elected. It is now formally protected, on the Chinese side, by a Blocking Statute.

The PBOC has bought gold for seventeen consecutive months. Official reserves are over 74 million troy ounces. The unofficial figure is widely assumed to be substantially higher, given that Chinese domestic mine production since 2000 alone (around 8,150 tonnes) exceeds the entire stated US Treasury holding. China’s US Treasury exposure has fallen from a 2013 peak of $1.32 trillion to $693 billion in February 2026.

Spot is around $4,800 an ounce. Shanghai still trades at consistent premiums to London and COMEX. Chinese banks are rationing 600 kilograms of bullion per bank per day, and every allocation evaporates in under a minute.

While we’re on the subject. The US Treasury carries its own gold holdings on the books at $42.2222 per troy ounce, a statutory price last revised in 1973. Spot is $4,800. The mark-to-market gap is roughly $1.25 trillion. Or said differently: about 3% of its national debt. Or even more differently: if they sell everything, they can run the US government for about a week and a half.

Every $100 that gold rises does add ~$25 billion. I have no idea whether anyone in Treasury has noticed, but I’ve heard a lot of chatter over the years about re-valuating this gold hoard.

The mechanism that I envision instead of a “gas-4-a-dolla’” (not an official US Treasury term… yet) is as I said many times (mainly in comments): internally in a country, the currencies stay fiat. We – the plebs – don’t get to transact in gold and spend 0.03 gram of gold on a gallon of petrol or so. Would be nice, but that’s a pipe-dream in my opinion.

Whatever your local denomination is, be it euro, lira, franc, pound, … Whatever local political pressure or tax laws or domestic monetary systems you have. They’re all localised.

However, cross-border settlement will likely migrate to gold. Not by design. By necessity. By elimination of all worse alternatives.

Every other settlement layer has been politically weaponized over the past six years. The dollar. The euro. SWIFT. CHIPS. Sovereign Treasury holdings. Real estate held in foreign jurisdictions. Central bank reserves. Venezuelan gold seized at the Bank of England in 2019. Russian reserves frozen in 2022. Afghan central bank assets held by the New York Fed since 2021. And Saturday extended the template from sovereign assets to private industrial enterprises.

Gold is the only major asset whose ownership cannot be cancelled by a remote click. It clears bilaterally. It doesn’t care whose face is on the coin. It survives the political weaponisation of every other settlement layer because the weaponisation is the entire reason central banks moved away from it in the first place.

No1 is publishing a roadmap.

There’s no public announcement.

It’s a destination by exclusion – the asset everyone ends up at after the others have been removed.

The petrogas-dollar framing fails on its own terms.

A new monetary regime needs a stable, durable, broadly-accepted anchor. The thesis says the anchor is American gas plus Western Hemisphere oil. The largest LNG producer on earth is already at full export capacity. Henry Hub is at multi-year highs because domestic supply can’t keep up with what’s already been promised. The captured Western Hemisphere reserves require Chevron to actually extract them rather than sign contracts for them. The Levantine Basin gas fields are still in the ground, five months after the deals were inked.

A monetary regime also needs counterparties willing to use it. The petrogas-dollar thesis describes a world where Europe and Asia have no choice but to buy American. In the actual world, the UAE quit OPEC effective May 1 after threatening yuan-denominated oil sales. Saudi Arabia gave 12 million of its citizens access to China’s CIPS payment network the day after that. Iran’s parliament codified yuan and Tether settlement at Hormuz – they’re still deciding on Tether after it got frozen (link). China activated the Blocking Statute on Saturday.

The monetary system is moving.

But it’s not moving to Washington.

The third variable is Trump. The thesis requires you to believe that the same administration that fired its own Navy Secretary three weeks ago for not building ships fast enough is, simultaneously, executing a coherent 25-year plan to reorganize global energy markets and replace fifty years of monetary architecture. Trump and 25-year strategic patience are two phrases that have, to my knowledge, never previously occupied the same sentence before.

Don’t get me wrong. The petrodollar won’t be dying tomorrow.

The US still has the world’s deepest capital markets, the most-traded currency, and the only Treasury market with anywhere near the absorption capacity to hold global savings. Reserve currency status takes decades to erode. The Bank of England held that status for over a century before the dollar took it, and at no point during the slide did anyone in London publish a piece announcing the handover.

Medhurst is right that there’s a transformation under way.

But I strongly believe that he has the direction wrong.

All this chaos ain’t producing a stronger empire.

It’s producing a more fragmented monetary architecture, and gold is starting to fill the gaps the dollar used to fill.