Europe is not yet in recession, but the latest business and consumer surveys show that the risk is no longer remote.
The euro area’s flash composite PMI fell to 48.6 in April from 50.7 in March, moving below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and signalling a quarterly GDP decline of around 0.1 per cent after a 0.2 per cent gain in the first quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
At the same time, the European Commission’s flash consumer-confidence indicator dropped to -20.6 in the euro area and -19.4 in the EU, both significantly below their long-term averages and the weakest readings since 2022, according to the European Commission.
The most worrying part of the PMI release is not just that output is contracting. It is that the contraction is arriving both in services and manufacturing and with renewed inflation pressure.
Input costs rose in April at the fastest pace since the end of 2022, while selling-price inflation reached a 37-month high, with S&P Global noting that its prices-charged index is consistent with consumer inflation running near 4 per cent.
That is the dangerous mix Europe should have learned to avoid after the energy crisis of 2022: weaker activity, higher costs, and policy complacency.
The war with Iran is the immediate shock, but it is not the cause of Europe’s vulnerability. As in 2022, an external crisis has exposed the internal weaknesses that politicians prefer to ignore: high taxes, excessive regulation, rigid labour markets, low productivity, energy dependence, and an industrial policy increasingly driven by ideology.
Europe had years to prepare for external shocks, strengthen security of supply, develop domestic resources, diversify energy sources, and reduce the tax burden on companies.
Instead, too many governments chose interventionism, subsidies, and higher public spending and are now dusting off the rationing rhetoric.
Interventionism that will backfire
Europe survived the 2022 energy crisis less because of brilliant policy and more because of temporary relief: a mild winter, emergency purchases of liquefied natural gas and weak Asian demand for some cargoes.
That window should have been used to reopen nuclear capacity, accelerate domestic resource development, secure long-term gas contracts and reduce the regulatory burden on industries. Instead, numerous governments regarded a fortunate escape as a policy triumph.
Europe remains exposed to disruptions in global LNG markets, instability in the Middle East, possible Russian supply interruptions and the rising cost of competing with Asia for energy cargoes.
A region that deliberately limits its energy options, taxes productive activity aggressively and imposes ideological constraints on investment should not be surprised when every geopolitical shock becomes an economic emergency.
Instead of allowing firms to invest, adapt, and secure alternatives, governments respond to scarcity with more controls, more intervention, and more taxation
European governments are talking about windfall profit taxes, demand control, and rationing. Instead of supporting and incentivising the companies that can secure supply and strengthen chains, they prefer to implement more interventionism that, again, will only backfire.
The April PMI data show that the impact is spreading. S&P Global says the war is hitting services hardest, with activity falling at a pace not seen since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021, while manufacturing output is being supported partly by stock-building rather than genuine demand strength.
This matters because services were the engine that kept Europe’s weak recovery alive. If services roll over while industry remains burdened by high taxes, elevated energy costs, and regulation, the cushion disappears.
Supply chains are also deteriorating again. Supplier delivery times lengthened in April by the most since July 2022. This is the classic European policy trap: instead of allowing firms to invest, adapt, and secure alternatives, governments respond to scarcity with more controls, more intervention, and more taxation.
I find it staggering to read that some European governments want to increase taxes precisely on the companies that can deliver supply security solutions – a clear disincentive to productive improvement.
Approaching a policy test
Consumer confidence confirms the damage. The European Commission reported that confidence fell by 4.2 percentage points in the euro area in April and by 4.0 points in the EU, continuing what it calls a “free fall” since the start of the Iran war.
Households are not reacting only to headlines from the Middle East. They are reacting to a familiar reality: expensive energy, high taxes, weak real disposable income, uncertainty about employment, and governments that offer more restrictions rather than more growth.
Europe is, again, approaching a policy test. The correct response is not rationing, price controls, or new attacks on business. The correct response is deregulation, lower taxes, faster permitting, energy realism, and a serious strategy to rebuild industrial competitiveness.
The euro area does not lack talent, capital, or companies capable of solving supply challenges. It lacks governments willing to remove obstacles.
The latest PMIs and consumer-confidence numbers do not mean that Europe is already in recession. However, they show that the region is dangerously close to repeating the mistakes of 2022, which resulted in persistent dependence from Russia and weaker industrial output.
The lesson is obvious. External shocks are inevitable, but strategic weakness is a choice.
Ceasefire Over? Trump Downplays ‘Mini-War’ After US & Iranians Trade Shots, Missiles Target UAE
Summary
Trump employs interesting new term: “We’re in, I call it a mini-war.”
Fujairah says 3 injured in Iranian attack on Oil Industry Zone, UAE confirms “air defenses are now dealing with a missile threat”, we have gotten reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red. UAE threatens retaliation.
CENTCOM hails two US merchant ships exiting Hormuz Strait safely in “first step”. Bessent issues remarks warning the US “will fire if fired upon.”
Iran insists Hormuz is under its control & says it targeted & struck a US Navy vessel, which the Pentagon/Central Command has denied.
Trump announced Sunday US will ‘help free up’ ships stuck in Hormuz Strait through Project Freedom.Iran has in response issued a “redefined the control zone” in Strait of Hormuz.
It’s looking like the White House does not wish to given up just yet on the ceasefire, given this afternoon President Trump referenced the conflict as a “mini-war” – as opposed to a full blown war – in what seemed like an effort to downplay today’s dramatic events. Not only did missiles rain down on the UAE, sparking a fire at a key oil facility, but the US Navy said it destroyed seven Iranian military boats. Here’s what Trump said.
“They did a poll on the war with Iran, and they said only 32% of the people like it,” Trump said, without specifying who conducted the poll. “Well, I don’t like it, I don’t like war at all.”
“We’re in, I call it a mini-war,” Trump added a few moments later.
Trump has previously said he’s been advised to not call it a war. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said last week that the U.S. is currently “not at war.”
Meanwhile, more details via CENTCOM on the earlier flare-up, which separately saw the UAE engage 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones on Monday:
US Central Command (Centcom) says it has used helicopters to destroy Iranian small boats.
It follows US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US has struck seven Iranian small boats as it works to open the Strait of Hormuz. “Earlier today, Sea Hawk and U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopters were used to eliminate Iranian small boats threatening commercial shipping”, Centcom writes in a social media update.
Ceasefire Broken? Israel Awaiting US Greenlight, Trump Downplays
There remain lingering questions over whether the US-Iran ceasefire has definitively broken down with today’s Iranian attack on the UAE, as well as tit-for-tat hostilities in the Persian Gulf area. This as Israeli media says the Netanyahu government is awaiting a ‘green light’ to attack Iran again. Also the UAE is now planning a ‘severe retaliatory response’ and ‘harsh revenge’ against Tehran, per MS Now.
Yet strangely, the latest statement out of CENTCOM doesn’t touch on the question of a broken ceasefire, and President Trump himself has been silent on the matter, per the AP:
Cooper declined to say whether the exchange of hostilities between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz today amounted to an end to the ceasefire agreement. Cooper told reporters in a phone call this afternoon that Iran “initiated aggressive behavior” in the strait, according to a readout of the call provided by The Associated Press. “What we saw this morning was Iran initiating aggressive behaviors,” Cooper said. “We are simply going to respond to that.”
Trump’s response:
In a phone conversation a short while ago, President Trump stopped short of saying Iran has violated the ceasefire.
Regarding the Iranian drone and missile attacks on UAE today: “They were shot down for the most part,” Trump told me. “One got through. Not huge damage.”…
Meanwhile, amid the looming threat of bigger, renewed war:
UAE SAYS ALL SCHOOLS TO SWITCH TO REMOTE LEARNING
UAE Threatens Military Response
A fresh official statement: “The United Arab Emirates strongly condemns the new Iranian attacks that targeted civilian sites and facilities in the country, using missiles, drones, and cruise missiles, which resulted in the injury of three Indian nationals.”
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed in its statement that these attacks constitute a serious and reckless escalation, and a blatant violation of the security and stability of the state, as well as a clear violation of the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter.” And the UAE followed with the threat that it has the right to respond militarily against ongoing “aggression and provocation”:
The UAE stressed that it will not tolerate any aggression against its security and sovereignty, and that it will respond with full force and firmness to these attacks, in a manner that fully protects its national security and the safety of its citizens and residents, in accordance with international law.
There are further confirmed reports of injuries and a fire at one or more oil facilities:
Three Indian nationals have been injured in the drone attack on Fujairah’s petroleum industrial site being blamed on Iran, the Fujairah Media Office says. The three have been taken to the hospital and their injuries have been termed “moderate”.
UAE, Bahrain, Oman Under Threat
UAE air defences are actively engaging multiple Iranian missile and drone threats today, with the Ministry of Defence confirming four cruise missiles were detected heading toward the country; three were successfully intercepted over territorial waters while the fourth fell into the sea. Explosions have been reported in the Dubai area as air defence systems responded, prompting the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) to issue public safety alerts. In Fujairah, Iranian drones struck the Petroleum Industries Zone, causing a fire at the critical oil export terminal that includes the VTTI facility – the UAE’s key Hormuz-bypass hub. The Fujairah Media Office has confirmed three Indian citizens were moderately injured in the attack, marking the first reported civilian casualties in the current wave. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) separately reported suspicious activity and a fire aboard a cargo vessel approximately 36 nautical miles north of Dubai, with cause unknown.
The incidents unfold against a backdrop of heightened US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claims control and has warned it will “forcefully stop” vessels violating its regulations, while denying US reports of safe transits under “Project Freedom.” CENTCOM has rejected Iranian claims of striking a US Navy vessel. Markets reacted sharply: Brent crude pushed back toward session highs above $119, E-mini futures turned lower, equities sold off, and the US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.01% for the first time since July. The situation remains fluid with conflicting claims on both sides, and further official updates from UAE authorities are expected.
Injuries Reported
The Fujairah Media Office / Emirate has confirmed that 3 Indian citizens/residents were moderately injured in today’s Iranian drone attack on the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone (oil industry complex).
Injuries are described as moderate (no fatalities reported).
This is the first confirmed civilian injuries from the current wave of attacks.
The incident is directly linked to the VTTI oil facility strike and the fire reported minutes earlier in the same zone.
Following reports from the Following a report from the UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster that Emirati air defenses are responding to a missile threat, we have seen reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red
Bloomberg adds that the UAE has detected four missiles coming from Iran
*UAE DETECTS FOUR MISSILES COMING FROM IRAN: DEFENSE MINISTRY
Air defense systems are currently responding to a missile threat. Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates. pic.twitter.com/DJFh6q8xi1
At the same time, the UK MTO Operations Center said that it has received reports multiple “Suspicious activities”
*UKMTO RECEIVES REPORT OF INCIDENT 36NM NORTH OF DUBAI
*UK NAVY: CARGO VESSEL REPORTED A FIRE IN THE ENGINE ROOM
*UK NAVY: CAUSE OF THE FIRE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
Perhaps worst of all, it appears attacks have recommenced on UAE energy infrastructure (specifically, Fujairah – the end point of the pipeline the UAE uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz).
*UAE’S FUJAIRAH SAYS AERIAL ATTACK FROM IRAN
*FUJAIRAH: IRAN DRONE ATTACK CAUSES FIRE AT OIL INDUSTRIAL ZONE
Operations at the strategic facility have been affected.
In the fog of war, it is increasingly unclear what is real and what is fiction, but while it is certainly possible that Iran has decided to re-escalate against the UAE, which is now as much of a nemesis as Iran, there is the possibility that the UAE is creating conditions for a false flag, hoping to drag the US into what would now be a “defensive” operation and thus not needing Congressional clearance.
In any case, the market is not happy, with stocks turning red…
… and oil pushing back to session highs.
And bonds are being dumped with 30Y yield back above 5.01% for the first time since July…
Bear in mind what Goldman warned on Friday:
It feels as though there are a few lines in the sand starting to develop in markets:
120 USD in Crude (note COA roll likely dampens vol a bit today compared to earlier in the week),
4.5% and 5.0% in UST 10/30yrs,
160 in USDJPY
we would be wary of all of these and the proximity to them all adds further fuel to any future resolution risk rally/Dollar sell-off.
Patience is key as always.
Some of those signals have been hit and others are looming.
* * *
Bessent: Will Fire if Fired Upon
Coinciding with ‘Day 1’ of Trump’s Project Freedom to “guide” stranded vessels out of the heavily contested Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued fresh remarks and warnings on Monday.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent says US is opening up the strait, we have absolute control of the strait. A quick summary of his main points via Newsquawk:
• Iranians do not have control of the strait.
• Project freedom was not done in coordination with Iran.
• If Iranians want to escalate, we are willing to do so.
• US is firing only when fired upon.
• It is a good time for US partners to step up and pressure Iran.
He further gave a very broad and fuzzy timeline, stating this ‘aberration’ will be over in ‘weeks or months’. At this point, admin officials are careful to avoid calling it a ‘war’ – given it has been 60 days since the start, and there’s the lingering question of Congressional authorization and war powers. Latest out of Hormuz:
Iranian IRGC attack hit a South Korean-linked ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Yonhap
Pentagon: Two US-Flagged Ships Exit Hormuz
On Monday morning, US Central Command announced that within 12 hours after President Trump unveiled ‘Project Freedom’, a pair of US-flagged merchant ships made it out of the Strait of Hormuz. The wording of the statement makes it sound like a US naval escort made this possible – though the degree to which this was the case remains unclear. Below is the CENTCOM statement.
U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.
This is being hailed as a the latest Pentagon success, however, the reality remains that Washington is celebrating a solution to a problem that did not exist before the launch of Operation Epic Fury. Or in other words, the US is seeking to open the strait which had never been closed prior to the Iran war. Meanwhile…
IRGC Says It Struck US Navy Ship, US Officials Deny
Iran is claiming to have attacked and struck a US Navy vessel, announcing that it stopped US warships from entering the Strait of Hormuz “with a firm and swift warning” and noting that “additional news will be announced later” – a statement by state Tasnim News Agency said. Soon after, Fars news agency said that two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask island after it ignored warnings from the IRGC to halt. Jerusalem Post also picked up on the statement, writing:
The ship reportedly turned back after being hit. The report further noted that the missiles had been launched after the US “violated security protocols for transit and navigation near Jask with the intent to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”
However, soon after Axios stated that a “senior US official denies a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles.” CENTCOM soon after said that no US navy ships have been struck, adding that US forces are supporting Project Freedom and enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports. It is the latest claimed major incident soon on the heels of President Trump the night prior announcing “Project Freedom” to “guide” stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. New threats:
But as we also noted, WSJ explained that Project Freedom “is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said.” So a lot of confusion remains. UAE meanwhile chimes in with some verification of a strike on a LNG tanker:
UAE SAYS ADNOC VESSEL HIT BY TWO IRAN DONRES IN HORMUZ
UAE CONDEMNS TARGETING OF ADNOC VESSEL BY DRONES IN HORMUZ
🚨 LIVE IN THE STRAIT: The U.S. just launched “Project Freedom” to escort neutral commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but the sanctioned tanker NOOH GAS (IMO 9034690) is currently attempting transit.
Trump had also said in his Monday Truth Social statement that he is “fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all.”
Iranian Tanker Crew Swap in Pakistan
Some kind of ‘good faith’ swap is in the works, per Al Jazeera:
The crew members of an Iranian ship that was seized by the United States after it “failed to comply” with the US blockade on Iranian ports have been transferred to Pakistan for repatriation, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said.
“As a confidence-building measure by the United States of America, twenty-two crew members held aboard the seized Iranian container ship, ‘MV Touska’, have been evacuated to Pakistan,” the ministry said in a statement on Monday.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry is facilitating their return, after a couple weeks ago the US Navy seized it and characterized the capture of the merchant ship part of the spoils of war.
CNN had reported at the time that “US Central Command (CENTCOM) says the guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance warned the Touska repeatedly over a six-hour period, during which time the container ship was steaming in the Arabian Sea toward Bandar Abbas, Iran.” It was among the earliest direct actions by the US Navy after the US declared a blockade on all Iranian ports.
Iran Warns US It Will Attack
A fresh escalatory warning and rhetoric out of Iran’s military on Monday: US forces will be attacked if they enter the strait, as well as any commercial ship or oil tanker not willingly coordinating their movements with Iran ahead of time. That’s according to Ali Abdollahi, the head of the Iranian military’s unified command, and as cited in Al Jazeera:
“We warn that any foreign armed forces, especially the aggressive US army, will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz,” the statement said.
All of this means that what Trump touted as an act of “goodwill” has the obvious potential to become a dangerous flashpoint. Some pundits have raised the possibility of a new Gulf of Tonkin incident.
The IRGC reportedly carried out a missile strike on two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz at night.
The IRGC Navy reports that the ships turned off their transponders and were operating in the interests of the US Navy. pic.twitter.com/64Ez5bFOpR
The Iranian military is claiming it has prevented a US Navy destroyer from entering the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian state media reports that the public relations arm of the army says: “With a firm and swift warning from the Islamic Republic Navy, the entry of American and Zionist enemy destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz was prevented.”
But it is hard to precisely confirm any of this, also as the Pentagon is mum and not expected to affirm any of Iran’s claimed ‘successes’ in stopping US naval movement in regional waters. There have also been reports of Iranian vessels firing warning shots on a US ship. And according to Axios Monday morning:
A U.S. official said the rules of engagement for U.S. forces in the region have been changed and they were authorized to strike immediate threats against ships that cross the strait, like IRGC fast boats or Iranian missile positions.
Iran’s ‘Control Zone’
Iran has “redefined the control zone” in Strait of Hormuz, stretching from south of Mount Mobarak in Iran to south of UAE’s Fujairah, and from west of Qeshm Island in Iran to Umm al-Quwain in the UAE, according to Tasnim.
A statement from Iranian State TV gives Iran’s perspective on Trump’s new Project Freedom, as it insists the strait is “under the control of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
Again, all of this directly contradicts Washington’s stance, and the two sides are once again headed toward escalation amid zero sum contrary positions with apparent willingness to use force. As a reminder, Trump had on Sunday described that “For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”
Some More Regional Developments
via Al Jazeera
Two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask in the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored warnings from the Revolutionary Guard to halt, state media quote the IRGC as saying.
The reported attack comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission, dubbed Project Freedom, to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it is assessing a response from Washington to its latest 14-point proposal to end the war. Trump had called Tehran’s proposal “unacceptable”.
Israel continues to bombard Lebanon, wounding five medics, and has expanded its area of control in Gaza by announcing a so-called “Orange Line”.
Caught Off Guard: Stunned EU Leaders React To Trump’s Troop Reduction In Germany
European officials have expressed dismay, disappointment, and surprise in the wake of the weekend announcement by the Trump administration that the US will be withdrawing some 5,000 troops from Germany over the coming months.
“There has been talk about withdrawing US troops from Europe for a long time. But of course, the timing of this announcement comes as a surprise,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed on the sidelines of the European Political Community meeting in Yerevan, Armenia on Monday.
She then tried to find a silver lining, saying this must motivate Europe to strengthen its own role inside NATO. “I think it shows that we have to really strengthen the European pillar in NATO and we really have to do more,” she said.
But she also reasoned, “American troops are not in Europe only for protecting European interests, but also American interests.” Kallas also said: “I don’t see into the head of President Trump, so he has to explain it himself.”
Similarly, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reacted by saying European leaders have “gotten the message” from Trump following the announcement.
Rutte, who is also in Armenia, acknowledged “disappointment from the US side” and said, “European leaders have gotten the message. They heard the message loud and clear.” He followed with: “Europeans are stepping up, a bigger role for Europe and a stronger NATO.”
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre when asked about the troop reduction, described “I wouldn’t exaggerate that because I think we are expecting that Europe is taking more charge of its own security.”
“I do not see those figures as dramatic, but I think they should be handled in a harmonious way inside the framework of NATO,” he told reporters in Yerevan.
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said officials at the 32-member alliance currently “are working with the US to understand the details of their decision on force posture in Germany.”
Over several years, and stretching back decades, the US has maintained the most number of troops on the European continent in Germany – currently estimated at over 36,000 active duty personnel. So the 5,000 – while significant – is still somewhat of a symbolic move and number.
The large US presence hearkens back to the post WWII division of Germany and post-war order, and is also a legacy of the Cold War. Ironically at this very moment European leaders have hyped a ‘new Cold War’ with Russia, as the Ukraine war continues raging.
“The officials characterized the move as a signal of President Trump’s discontent with the level of assistance that European allies have offered in the U.S.-Iran war,” CBS wrote on the reduction decision.
The significance of the planned move also lies in the fact that America’s German bases serve as headquarters of US European Command and Africa Command – with the historic Ramstein Air Base being the key hub.
The announcement via US reporting comes just a day after Trump again lambasted German Chancellor Friedrich Merz:
“The Chancellor of Germany should spend more time on ending the war with Russia/Ukraine (Where he has been totally ineffective!), and fixing his broken Country, especially Immigration and Energy, and less time on interfering with those that are getting rid of the Iran Nuclear threat, thereby making the World, including Germany, a safer place!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Merz had in a rare moment torched US foreign policy and the Trump administration’s Iran war gambit in Monday remarks given at a local event in Germany. Included in that very head-on critique of Operation Epic Fury came in the following: “An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards. And so I hope that this ends as quickly as possible.”
Merz had also claimed, “If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told him even more emphatically.”
New data released by Eurostat on Wednesday reveals a staggering rise in reported sexual crimes across the European Union, with Spain showing an increase far beyond the continental average.
Spain has seen one of the most significant shifts in reporting, according to Spain’s La Razon outlet. In 2024, the country registered “5,222 violations” compared to only “1,239 in 2014.” This represents a “322 percent increase,” a figure that sits “well above the 150 percent average in the EU.”
What Eurostat does not provide is data on who is committing these crimes. However, other sources have explored this issue.
As Remix News reported last year, a CEU-CEFAS Demographic Observatory report titled “Demography of Crime in Spain” showed that foreigners, who make up 31 percent of Spain’s prison population and commit per capita 500 percent more rapes and 414 percent more murders than Spanish citizens.
The highest rates are seen among Arabs and Latinos, with many of them hailing from countries in South America known for their extremely high crime rates.
While the murder numbers are stable in Spain at 300 per year, there has been explosive growth in attempted murders. Over the course of just four years, between 2019 and 2023, attempted murder cases nearly doubled, going from 836 to 1,507.
In just five years, penetrative rape cases also soared 143 percent, going from 2,143 in 2019 to 5,206 in 2024.
As Remix News has reported on in the past, in many Spanish states, the crime statistics show massive overrepresentation of foreigners in serious crimes like sexual assault, including in the Basque region.
In cases of robbery with violence, foreigners are 440 percent more likely to commit such a crime. Many such cases have made headlines in the Spanish media.
The study heads indicated that Spain’s aging population should have led to a decrease in crime rates, but the influx of migrants, amounting to 3.8 million per decade, has led to an “imported crime” problem.
The report confirmed a consistent pattern that violent crime is predominantly committed by young men. Specifically concerning nationality, the study indicates that foreigners have much higher crime rates than Spaniards, particularly for the most serious offenses against persons, such as homicide, rape, and robbery. This overrepresentation is noted to be especially pronounced among individuals of African and Latin American origin.
🇪🇸‼️ In Barcelona, North African migrants were caught on camera trying to bundle an 11-year-old girl into a car while she was on the way to the shop opposite her home.
Her mother speaks out, “She burst into the house in tears, trembling. That night, she couldn’t sleep or eat. It… pic.twitter.com/9LL7lxHQUL
Data on the prison population supports this finding: in 2024, 31 percent of the prison population was foreign-born (excluding naturalized or second-generation immigrants). This proportion is more than double their share of the general population in the 20-69 age group, with North Africans and Latin Americans showing significant overrepresentation.
Rape and sexual crimes jump across Europe
According to the report, police forces across EU member states registered “more than 250,000 crimes of sexual violence” in 2024. Of these recorded offenses, “almost 100,000 (38 percent) were rapes,” marking a “150 percent more than a decade ago” increase.
The Eurostat statistical office highlighted a “sustained upward trend over the last ten years, with an average growth of almost 10 percent annually in sexual violence and 7 percent in rape”. In total, cases of sexual violence nearly doubled in the EU, seeing “124,350 more cases than in 2014,” while the number of rapes added “nearly 59,000 additional crimes in that period.”
However, Eurostat suggests these numbers may not reflect a simple increase in crime alone. The office noted that the surge “could be linked to greater social awareness, which would have impacted reporting rates.”
Big Shake-Up: Putin Fires Head Of Aerospace Forces After Devastating Ukrainian Drone Attacks
There are reports out of Russia of another high level firing within the defense ministry. This time, President Putin has reportedly sacked the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, which is the armed services branch responsible for the country’s air defenses.
Moscow-based news outlet RBC reports that General Viktor Afzalov has been replaced by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. Afzalov had first been appointed to the command post in 2023.
However, the Kremlin did not immediately comment on or confirm the shake-up, but it comes amid growing anger among the Russian populace and among leadership following a series of major Ukrainian drone attacks.
For example, the major Black Sea hub of the Tuapse Oil Refinery has been struck four times in the last several weeks, creating a local environmental disaster which has also seen days of large fires.
The recent series of highly destructive Ukrainian drone attacks has even reached faraway Perm, near the Ural mountains, where an oil complex there was reported struck.
These latest drone waves have not been stopped by Russian anti-air defenses, and Ukraine’s cheap but highly capable drone attacks have appeared to easily thwart any countermeasures.
As for the new head of the Aerospace Forces, he takes command amid a high pressure situation. If he can’t stop the ongoing drone onslaught, then he too could face quick removal:
Alexander Chaiko was born in 1971 in the Moscow region. He graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School. According to the Ministry of Defense website, he served in positions ranging from reconnaissance platoon commander to commander of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District. In 2001, he graduated from the Frunze Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces. In 2012, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff.
He held the positions of deputy commander of the combined arms army of the Central Military District, commander of the combined arms army of the Western Military District, chief of staff – first deputy, and commander of the troops of the Eastern Military District. In 2019, he was appointed deputy chief of the General Staff.
Chaiko has already been sanctioned by the European Union, as he’s stood accused serving as a lead commander during the Russian occupation of Bucha – after which Moscow was accused of indiscriminate killings of civilians, which the Kremlin denies.
RBK reported that Colonel-General Aleksandr Chaiko (left) was appointed commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov (right).
Chaiko is a former Ground Forces officer who began the 2022 invasion as commander of the Eastern Military… pic.twitter.com/3FOUfTI4KA
Meanwhile, last week Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced “a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia’s war.“
Despite Ukrainian forces being slowly rolled back on the battlefield in the east, drone warfare remains about the only leverage that Kiev has at this point.
Germany’s Inflation Scapegoat: Why Hormuz Is A Convenient Cover Story
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Over the weekend, economist Gerrit Heinemann warned in Bild of a drastic increase in food prices in Germany. The scholar from Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences focused his analysis on the massive rise in fertilizer prices. A significant share of these—estimated at roughly one third of global production—is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the dual blockage of the strait, this sector too has entered a state of global scarcity, forcing farmers worldwide to adjust prices, which ultimately feeds through to consumer prices.
Heinemann concludes that Germany’s food price index could rise by as much as ten percent this year. In Berlin, a familiar narrative has already taken hold, and there is broad agreement: the Hormuz crisis alone is responsible for the disaster. Yet core inflation had already reached around 2.7 percent year-on-year in March. Price increases across the entire spectrum of goods—especially energy and housing, which has become scarce due to migration—have accompanied Germany’s economic decline for quite some time. Only the dramatic slump in private investment and general consumer restraint have slightly dampened price pressures in recent years.
What stands out in this development is the steady upward revision of inflation forecasts. In March, there was consensus between the Economics Ministry and leading research institutes that inflation would come in at around three percent this year. By early April, after one month of the Iran crisis, economists at the International Monetary Fund were projecting price increases of five to six percent.
Now comes the ten-percent hammer in food prices. One could also put it this way: the culprit for rising prices in Germany has been found. Media and government point at every opportunity to Washington, where the supposed architect of the disaster allegedly sits: Donald Trump. But does this thesis hold?
Simultaneous with the abrupt rise in inflation forecasts are the recurring downward revisions of Germany’s economic growth rates. After more than two decades of eco-socialist restructuring, loose monetary policy, and now rapidly expanding public debt, Germany’s economy can be described simply: it is retreating in a dramatic process of contraction, while prices will continue to rise amid a crisis of productivity and investment. Incidentally, food prices rose by more than 40 percent between 2019 and 2025 as financial markets and the broader economy were flooded with cheap credit during the lockdown period, as documented by the Federal Statistical Office.
Hormuz is a cheap diversion from the disastrous policies that the firewall party cartel has been pursuing for some time in order to build a new green socialism. We are witnessing a radical paradigm shift not seen since the end of the Second World War. It is common knowledge that cheap energy, technological openness, a functioning market economy, and stable money were the factors that once underpinned Germany’s economic success.
It is now proving costly to be at odds with its most important energy and raw materials supplier, Russia, and to have effectively declared perpetual conflict with Moscow. History teaches us that ideological fervor always goes hand in hand with fanaticism. Blowing up one’s own nuclear capacity was, quite literally, a reckless gamble—an act of blind ideological infantilism rarely seen anywhere in the world in our era.
Together with Brussels, Berlin is pursuing a scorched-earth policy when it comes to returning to a market-based energy framework and sound regulatory principles. No matter how hard the current energy crisis hits, German policymakers remain committed to their green-socialist ideology. By clinging rigidly to CO₂ rent-seeking, grotesque climate regulation, and an energy policy run amok, the country has maneuvered itself into a geopolitical straitjacket. Germany’s economy now has its back against the wall. And Berlin has found its solution: the German middle class will be bled dry to finance the capital’s debt excesses and conceal the scale of the disaster.
What is dramatically worsening the situation in recent weeks is a series of attacks worldwide on refinery infrastructure. Whether in the United States, Australia, or war-affected Russia, the problems are intensifying. For Germany, an additional blow is that Russia will halt the transit of Kazakh oil to the Schwedt refinery via the Druzhba pipeline.
It is high time to develop domestic energy resources—fracking gas and drilling in the North and Baltic Seas—to signal to markets and consumers that rational policymaking has returned. Only then could Germany credibly declare the end of its post-Enlightenment delusion. A Europe-wide initiative to finance and build nuclear capacity would be urgently required. Yet Brussels and Berlin have decided otherwise: if necessary, access to energy will be rationed. The expansion of eco-socialism is to continue at all costs—energy thus becomes an absolute lever of political power over citizens, who are suffering from the ideological rigidity and intellectual failure of European policymakers to reduce energy dependence through market mechanisms and negotiated solutions.
The inflation problem is self-inflicted. Only a completely distorted and ideologically colored media narrative surrounding the Iran crisis and the consequences of centralized energy policy has so far prevented the public from correctly perceiving the economic disaster. The year 2026 will likely be the year in which personal escapism carries severe monetary consequences.
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About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
Videos circulating on social media out of Nigeria have ignited shock and horror after appearing to show groups of men chasing, stripping and sexually assaulting women in broad daylight during a traditional “fertility” festival in the country’s southern Delta State, according to news.com.au.
The incidents unfolded on March 19 during the Alue-Do festival in Ozoro, a triennial rite in the Uruamudhu community of the Ozoro Kingdom. Intended to invoke blessings for married women struggling with conception, the event involves processions to a community shrine. Local customs reportedly advise single women to remain indoors. However, footage depicted young women fleeing through crowded streets, pursued by mobs who tore at their clothing, groped them and subjected them to public humiliation while bystanders filmed and, in some cases, appeared to cheer.
The graphic clips, which spread rapidly on platforms including X, Instagram and Facebook, have fueled national outrage, trending hashtags such as #endsexualviolence.
Delta State police have responded with arrests. Authorities confirmed that at least 15 people, including a community leader and several young men identified in the videos, are in custody, the BBC reports. Police spokesperson Bright Edafe described the scenes as “alarming, disgusting and embarrassing,” adding that suspects have been transferred to the State Criminal Investigation Department for prosecution. Investigations continue, though officials noted that no formal complaints of rape have been filed to date. Some women reportedly required hospitalization.
One of the alleged victims told police she was attacked within minutes of arriving at the event to the “rape festival.”
“Immediately I came down, they started shouting ‘hold her, hold her, that’s a woman’, and they swooped on me like bees,” the alleged victim said, according to the Daily Express. “A large crowd started pulling my clothes until they stripped me naked. They were pulling my breasts and touching my whole body … I was shouting for help.”
Women’s rights activists claim this isn’t the first event where mass rape has occured.
“This is not just about what happened in those videos,” said Rita Aiki, an activist with the Women’s Rights Advancement and Protection Alternative, the New York Post reported. “It’s about the conditions that make it possible for this kind of violence to happen in public, with so many people watching and no one stepping in.”
“It tells you something about what is being normalized in a given society,” she added.
Meta Raising $13 Billion SPV For Texas Data Center As Its CDS Hits Record
Back in January, just days before the latest private crash swept across markets, we reminded readers that one of the biggest abusers of private credit SPVs was none other than Meta which as of 2025 was “already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt.” We then showed a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with private credit ground zero – Blue Owl – titled “Project Beignet”, which was created for Meta’s Hyperion data center, “none of this touches META’s balance sheet.” We said to expect “hundreds of billions of these in 2026.”
As a reminder, META is already neck deep in off-balance sheet debt. Here is a schematic of its $27.3 billion SPV with Blue Owl “Project Beignet” for the Hyperion data center. None of this touches META’s balance sheet.
Little did we know that the first big (ab)user of SPVs in 2026 would be none other than Meta again.
According to Bloomberg, the company formerly known as Facebook, is working on another financing package wrapped as a special purpose vehicle, this time for a data center in El Paso, that could total over $13 billion – or roughly half of the Beignet – underscoring Big Tech’s growing reliance on debt to bankroll the infrastructure behind the AI boom, which as we noted earlier is now expected to reach $1.1 trillion in 2027 capex spending.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are leading the process this time, according to Bloomberg sources. And just like Project Beignet, a large majority of the financing is expected to be in the form of debt, with the rest equity.
And indeed, Bloomberg confirms that Meta’s effort is similar to an almost $30 billion financing package it completed last year for a data center site in rural Louisiana, and which included $27 billion in debt which Meta raised through a special purpose entity known as Beignet Investor, which we discussed in January, and which is named after the popular Louisiana pastry.
The food theme has persisted, and this latest transaction, dubbed Sopaipilla, is named after a fried pastry popular in the Southwestern parts of the country.
But why go the extra mile to come up with another complicated scheme instead of getting secured financing? Simple: there is little direct demand for the paper, and second, Meta is spending more than $10 billion on the data center in El Paso, which is a material jump from prior projections. By the time the data center is completed, the final bill will be even greater.
The gigawatt-sized data center is expected to come online in 2028, and will support more than 300 on-site jobs once completed. Meta has also said its construction needs will grow given the increased investment, and now anticipates 4,000 temporary workers to be on site during the peak construction period.
When Meta sealed Beignet’s deal, where Blue Owl was the co-investor at the Project Beignet Holdings level, the company turned to PIMCO as its anchor lender on the transaction. With Sopaipilla, there is nobody to anchor the deal; instead Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan – who have zero interest in holding on to the debt – will quietly try to syndicate the debt to other capital markets investors.
Since the Beignet transaction, data center financing has exploded across investment-grade and junk-bond markets, as we first reported last October in “AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market.” In the high-yield space, more than $20 billion of bonds and loans have launched in the past three weeks alone, while Meta itself raised $25 billion in bonds last week. Still, investors have shown some signs of fatigue amid the deluge, and nowhere more so than in Meta’s own Credit Default Swaps which are trading at record wides.
Beside concerns about the company’s debt, there are even bigger concerns over Meta’s outlook, as investors worry that the company’s massive investments in AI won’t pay off… just like they failed to do when the company which changed its name to Meta spent tens of billions on the Metaverse, with abysmal returns. The company’s shares are down about 7.5% this year.
Trump’s “Project Vault” Plans To Initially Buy Rare Earths From China
As we reported in February, the US Export-Import Bank’s proposed rare earth stockpiling initiative would initially source critical minerals from anywhere in the world – including China, an official involved in the project revealed to Bloomberg. The $12 billion Project Vault would later shift to a replenishment model that prioritizes domestic production first, followed by allied nations and other sources as a last resort, executives including Ex-Im Chief Banking Officer Brian Greeley said lastt week, unveiling some of the first details publicly announced on the project.
Greeley spoke alongside representatives of Glencore Plc. and Hartree Partners LP, which will be among trading houses procuring materials for Vault. The project aims to build an immediate buffer against critical mineral supply shocks while using future purchases to send a stronger demand signal to US and friendly-nation producers.
Vault — which combines about $2 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Ex-Im loan — is President Trump’s latest effort to build an alternative supply chain for the materials, which are key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and other low-carbon technologies. China is the dominant supplier of critical minerals worldwide.
The recent panel was the most robust public discussion of Vault since Ex-Im revealed the program in February. For nearly three months, metals investors, traders and consumers have sought details as the government worked behind the scenes to flesh out the project, according to Bloomberg.
Attendees packed a conference room at a hotel in Washington, DC, to get details on Vault’s sourcing hierarchy and payment structure. After brief introductory remarks, the panel unexpectedly opened up the floor to an almost hour-long question-and-answer session.
The program’s so-called waterfall would give preference to domestic suppliers even when their material comes at a premium to allied alternatives, with participating manufacturers expected to accept that trade-off as part of joining the program, panelists said. The initial stockpile fill, however, would be driven chiefly by availability, reflecting the reality that some of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration are produced only in limited geographies and, in some cases, remain heavily influenced by China.
Vault is being structured as a demand-driven vehicle rather than a government-directed stockpile, the panelists revealed. Manufacturers would determine which minerals are stored, with the program then working with traders to secure supply. It’s designed to give US firms more leverage in opaque and fragmented markets where individual buyers often struggle to source smaller volumes efficiently or at transparent prices.
On storage, Greeley said the project will begin by relying on warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners and procurement providers. Over time, Vault is expected to develop its own storage network, either by building facilities or leasing them. A mature system could combine its own sites with third-party warehouses.
Panelists said the use of specialist traders would also be tailored to individual metals. Rather than sending orders into an open bidding process, Vault is expected to match procurement to firms with expertise in specific markets, allowing traders with relationships in cobalt, rare earths or other niche material sectors to handle those flows. The goal, panelists said, is to preserve pricing discipline, improve execution and avoid creating a scramble for hard-to-find materials.
A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has come under fire after expressing deep concern – described by multiple outlets as an apology – over the custody conditions of Cole Tomas Allen, the 31-year-old accused of attempting to assassinate President Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on April 25.
The judge’s remarks, captured in court and widely circulated on X, have ignited accusations of a two-tier justice system that coddles violent attackers while everyday Americans watch their rights erode.
According to reports from the emergency hearing, U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui voiced serious worries about Allen’s placement in restrictive custody following the shooting incident.
SHOCKING: D.C. U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui *APOLOGIZED*’to alleged White House Correspondents Dinner shooter, Cole Allen, for the “treatment” he has experienced so far in custody.
“The judge is very concerned about his constitutional rights, saying the defendant has… pic.twitter.com/D9uAUGwefc
Fox News reported that “The judge is very concerned about his constitutional rights, saying the defendant has requested meetings with his legal team, and that has not been allowed. He’s been put in a restrictive 24-hour lockup with no windows in a padded room without an opportunity to get out for recreation.”
“He has been put on su*cide watch by the Department of Corrections, and the judge was asking why,” the reporter further noted.
Fox News host Larry Kudlow ripped into the development live on air, echoing the growing frustration.
“The judge apologised to this guy, who would’ve sprayed the whole audience?! And killed God knows how many people? Then would’ve taken a shot at the president? We’re apologizing to this guy?! I don’t GET that!”
Allen, a California man with no prior criminal record, faces charges including attempted assassination of the president after authorities say he rushed a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton armed with a shotgun, handguns, and knives. Video evidence released by prosecutors shows the chaotic moments as he allegedly opened fire, wounding a Secret Service agent before being subdued. He remains in federal custody.
The judge’s intervention came during arguments over Allen’s suicide watch and housing conditions, with his defense team filing motions to ease restrictions they called punitive. Faruqui reportedly ordered jail officials to explain or adjust the setup, emphasizing due process and access to counsel.
As we previously highlighted, Allen’s social media posts paint a picture of an individual steeped in the same anti-Trump rhetoric that has dominated Democratic and media messaging for years – language that framed the president and his administration in extreme, dehumanizing terms.
The incident at the correspondents’ dinner exposed how years of inflammatory talk can push someone toward violence. Yet instead of focusing on root causes – the unchecked rhetoric from the left – some in the system appear more worried about the shooter’s “dignity” behind bars.
Conservatives have pointed out the glaring double standard. January 6 defendants endured months of harsh pretrial conditions without similar judicial hand-wringing from the same D.C. courts. Here, a man charged with targeting the president and potentially dozens of others receives immediate scrutiny over padded cells and recreation time.
The hearing underscored Faruqui’s view that Allen’s treatment stood out as unusually severe compared to others he has overseen. Defense filings highlighted barriers to legal preparation and basic communication, prompting the judge to demand answers from the Department of Corrections by early this week.
Critics argue this reflects a deeper rot in the federal judiciary, where activist judges prioritize suspects aligned with certain ideologies over public safety and accountability. Calls to remove or reassign such figures have intensified online, with many demanding reforms to prevent future coddling of would-be assassins.
President Trump and his administration have long warned about the weaponization of institutions against America First policies. This episode only reinforces that message: the deep state and its enablers in the courts will bend over backward for those who threaten the republic while punishing patriots who defend it.
As the case moves forward, with a grand jury expected to hear additional charges, Americans are watching closely. The radicalization that drove Allen to act didn’t emerge in a vacuum – it was fueled by the very Democratic messaging now being whitewashed in court.
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