Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated
The US national average for regular 87-octane gasoline remained uncomfortably above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold for roughly two and a half months. That stretch pressured lower-income consumers, forcing many to trade down or cut discretionary spending while weighing on broader consumer sentiment. The key question now is whether pump prices have further room to fall or whether current levels will become the new normal this summer.
Answering that question is Goldman’s leading commodity expert Daan Struyven, who penned a note on Thursday explaining the three forces keeping pump prices high:
Reason #1: Tight Refining Fundamentals
Exhibit 4: The Global Refining Utilization Rate Was Near Historical Highs Before the Hormuz Shock
Exhibit 5: Refined Oil Products Stocks Are Low
Reason #2: Ongoing Refined Products Supply Shocks
Exhibit 6: Combined Refinery Outages in Russia and the Middle East Are 4.6mb/d Above Their Seasonal Normss
Reason #3: Asymmetric Passthrough
Exhibit 7: Firms Look Much More Likely to Report Selling Price Increases After Energy Prices Rise—Such as in 2021 and 2022—Than Report Selling Price Decreases When Energy Prices Fall—Like in 2023 and 2024
Struyven’s three reasons suggest that the recent declines in the national average prices of gasoline, diesel, and other refined fuels may prove limited.
Watch: New Video Shows McConnell Wheeled Out On Stretcher After June Cardiac Emergency At D.C. Home
New video shows emergency responders loading Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) onto a stretcher and into an ambulance outside his Capitol Hill residence on the morning of June 14, the same day the longtime Senate Republican leader was hospitalized.
The neighbor-recorded footage, first published Friday by CNN, depicts emergency vehicles – including multiple ambulances and a fire truck – clogging the street near McConnell’s home as first responders wheel a person identified by witnesses as the 84-year-old senator toward an ambulance. The individual’s face is not clearly visible in the video, but their lower legs and feet were seen under an orange blanket.
BREAKING BOMBSHELL
New audio and video have been leaked showing Sen. Mitch McConnell being loaded by stretcher into an ambulance when transported to the hospital – EMS recordings conform they found an unknown person who was “unconscious” due to “cardiac arrest,” with “CPR in… pic.twitter.com/F5Aug8pmg8
The video adds new weight to emergency dispatch audio previously obtained by an independent journalist and reported by CNN. In that recording, responders were dispatched to McConnell’s known address for an “unconscious” person experiencing a “cardiac arrest,” with a paramedic heard saying “CPR in progress.”
A neighbor who spoke with CNN said officers described it only as a “medical emergency” at the time but confirmed through another eyewitness that the person on the stretcher was McConnell. No sirens were used as the ambulance left the scene.
Prolonged Hospitalization Raises Questions
McConnell has remained hospitalized for nearly a month. His office has released only terse updates saying he is “receiving excellent care” and “continues his recovery,” with few specifics on his condition or prognosis. The opacity has fueled rampant speculation in Washington political circles and on social media.
Some Republican allies, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and commentator Scott Jennings, have said they’ve spoken with McConnell recently and described his voice as strong. Still, the lack of detailed medical disclosures stands in contrast to the public nature of the emergency response now coming into view. Others mocked it as covering up for ‘weekend at Mitch’s.’
I spoke to McConnell for about 20 minutes this morning.
He said we should end the war with Iran, quit giving aid to Israel, stop spying on Americans without a warrant, and he’s really sorry about how my primary turned out.
The incident marks the latest health scare for McConnell, who has a well-documented history of falls, concussions and other episodes. As a towering figure in Senate Republican politics for decades, his extended absence continues to ripple through the chamber and the broader party.
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Mitch McConnell appearing to have another scary episode in the media gaggle in Covington today. Aides had to step in to help him out and repeat questions. He was eventually lead away. We’ll have the full video on @WLWTpic.twitter.com/q9ex5MHxLV
SK Hynix ADRs Open At $170, Tapping Wall Street Liquidity To Fuel Korea’s AI Memory Boom
Summary:
SK Hynix’s ADR Open at $170
SK Hynix Chairman Tells Bloomberg “Demand Will Be Exponentially Growing In Future”
SK Hynix’s ADRs Set to Open $175
SK Hynix’s ADRs Set to Open at $181, 22% Premium Above $149 Offering Price
SK Hynix ADRs Priced At 3% Premium As Wall Street Readies Wave Of Leveraged ETFs
SK Hynix’s ADR Open at $170
Shortly after SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won appeared on Bloomberg to promote the listing, the memory-chip giant’s ADRs finally began trading at $170 per share, up 14% from the $149 offering price.
SK Hynix’s ADRs Set For $175 Opening; Chairman Chey Tae-won Comments On BBG
SK Hynix’s ADRs are now indicated to open at $175, about 17% above their $149 offering price.
SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won told Bloomberg’s Edward Ludlow earlier that “Demand will be exponentially growing in the future.”
“That actually requires a better return,” Chey said, adding, “Once we have a better return, then there’s more demand. The first thing we have to do is keep the stock price stable, and then hopefully in the long run we can have the upside potential.”
Separately on Wall Street, Thornburg Investment Management analyst Di Zhou noted, “We are currently in this memory super cycle. Fundamentals are very strong and SK Hynix is one of the highest quality pure-play memory players globally.”
SK Hynix’s ADRs Set to Open At Premium
SK Hynix’s ADRs, trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV, are indicated to open at $181 per share, 22% above their $149 offering price. The strong opening suggests robust investor demand for the world’s leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory.
As noted earlier, SK Hynix sold 177.9 million ADRs at $149 per share, raising roughly $26.5 billion. Each receipt represents one-tenth of a Seoul-listed common share.
The temporary trading symbol SKHYV will switch to SKHY when regular-way trading begins next Monday.
Roth Capital Partners’ sales trading team asked:
One may ask how investors, looking back in two years, will come to view the timing and meaning of SK Hynix’s U.S. offering?
SK Hynix ADRs Priced At 3% Premium As Wall Street Readies Wave Of Leveraged ETFs
The next test of the AI trade arrives today, as South Korean memory-chip maker SK Hynix’s American depositary receipts begin trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV.
Shares were priced at about a 3% premium to Thursday’s close of its ordinary shares in South Korea. The $26.5 billion offering attracted demand for roughly seven times the shares available, forcing the chipmaker to scale back allocations to major investors, according to Bloomberg.
The company sold 177.9 million ADRs at $149 each, raising $26.5 billion, surpassing Alibaba’s US debut to become the third-largest listing in history. Each ADR represents one-tenth of a Seoul-listed common share, giving US investors direct exposure to the world’s leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory amid the AI boom that could soon unlock the Physical AI boom.
According to the report, Baillie Gifford, Coatue Management, and Situational Awareness Partners received about $5 billion of ADRs, roughly $2 billion less than indicated. Over 500 institutional investors placed orders, including long-only funds, technology specialists, and sovereign wealth funds. The allocation remained concentrated, with 10 investors taking half the deal and the top 25 accounting for about two-thirds.
Wall Street analysts weighed in with their first takes of the deal, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Jung In Yun, CEO at Fibonacci Asset Management
“I take 3% premium as a constructive signal. It shows that global investors are still willing to pay up for direct US access despite the recent volatility in Korean equities”
From the company’s and banks’ perspective, the level looks sensible; it is strong enough to demonstrate demand, but not so aggressive that it creates unnecessary aftermarket risk
In the current market, a clean, stable debut matters more than squeezing out the last few percentage points of valuation
Sanghyun Park, founder of Clepsydra Capital
It shows global funds accept paying up to bypass local index and currency friction and direct exposure to the company’s HBM dominance
The banks capitalized on the limit to conversion that prevents arb traders from instantly erasing the spread on the first trading day
This avoids the typical Korea Discount seen with legacy local names and points toward a TSMC-style scarcity model
“Since 3% is just the primary floor and the float is so heavily choked, we could easily see the premium gap much higher once US trading opens on Friday”
Travis Lundy, an independent special situations analyst who publishes on Smartkarma
“To me that is not that much of a premium. Eminently reasonable given the current swap rates on owning SK Hynix” local shares
The 3% premium to Thursday’s close is actually a discounted price to Wednesday’s close and every other close for the past few weeks when investor demand was “multiple times” the offering size
There is an interesting dynamic whereby if the headroom expands, it will take pressure off the banks to fund local into swaps, which should reduce the swap rate, which should in turn reduce the ADR premium slightly
Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group
“The 3% premium tells you the roadshow demand was strong enough to price above Thursday’s Korean close — and that’s the first concrete evidence that the accessibility premium is real”
The real test will be the first two weeks of trading before upcoming earnings; if the ADR consistently trades above the Korean share dollar equivalent, it confirms US investors are willing to pay a premium for accessibility — and that should pull the Korean shares higher
The ADRs could be included in the Nasdaq 100 in December; once that inclusion happens, passive fund inflows from vehicles like the Invesco QQQ become a mechanical buying force
Francis Oh, head of Asia business development at Rex Financial, which provides exchange-traded products
“The current 3% premium should not be over-interpreted at this early stage”
“TSMC’s 18% premium reflects structural friction that accumulated over years, not a level established immediately post-listing; any meaningful convergence or divergence for SKHY toward comparable levels is more likely to unfold as a gradual”
SK Hynix’s ADR offering comes weeks after SpaceX tapped the public markets in the largest initial public offering in history, while Alphabet is raising $85 billion to fund its AI buildout. Traders are betting heavily that AI-related demand is a secular growth story for memory stocks, which have historically been viewed as more cyclical.
Bloomberg expects that the US debut of SK Hynix will unlock a new “wave of leverage ETFs” tied to the chipmaker’s American depositary receipts. It expects ProShares, Leverage Shares and Rex Shares are some of the fism planning to products taht offer 2x daily returns on the memory chip giant.
Bloomberg Intelligence noted:
A fresh pool of leveraged US-listed ETPs would mean the daily rebalancing flows would grow larger, potentially fueling already heightened volatility. The size of the leveraged products also made it difficult to meet the promise of delivering twice daily returns, creating a tracking gap.
Health officials are proposing a plan to clarify which COVID-19 vaccine side effects would be eligible for government financial compensation, according to a new notice.
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and one of its divisions said in a description of a proposed rule released on July 1 that they plan to establish an injury table for COVID-19 vaccines through the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP).
“The Table will list and explain injuries that, based on compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence, are presumed to be caused by covered COVID-19 countermeasures, and set forth the time periods in which the onset of these injuries must occur after the administration or use of these covered COVID-19 countermeasures,” a summary of the rule, which has not been made public, stated.
COVID-19 vaccines fall under the CICP because previous health secretaries declared and extended emergency declarations for COVID-19, which opened up the option of emergency clearance of vaccines and other countermeasures under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act.
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who just announced that he was ending the emergency declaration, is authorized under the declarations to provide benefits to people injured by the vaccines under the act, HHS officials noted in the proposal summary.
“Under the leadership of Secretary Kennedy, HHS is restoring transparency and accountability because the American people deserve clear, evidence-based information about both the benefits and the known risks associated with medical countermeasures,” an HHS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.
The spokesperson said that more information will be available when the notice is published in the Federal Register.
Aaron Siri, Kennedy’s former lawyer, wrote to Kennedy in 2025, urging him to create a COVID-19 vaccine-injury table. He pointed to the readiness and preparedness law, which states that the health secretary “shall by regulation establish a table identifying covered injuries that shall be presumed to be directly caused by the administration or use of a covered countermeasure.”
An injury table would help people injured by vaccines apply successfully to the congressionally created program, which requires “compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence” that an injury was a direct result of a countermeasure, Siri wrote on behalf of the Informed Consent Action Network, which advocates for government transparency and change.
“A well-constructed injury table is needed for the CICP,” Richard Hughes IV, a former Moderna executive who is representing health groups in litigation against the administration that has halted some of its changes to vaccine guidance, told The Epoch Times in an email. “The real question is whether this administration would promulgate such a table or weaponize it to further platform misinformation.“
Dr. Joel Wallskog, who suffered the neurological disorder transverse myelitis and other issues from COVID-19 vaccination and has sued the government over the CICP, told The Epoch Times in an email that the HHS proposal “is more appearance than substance.”
“It appears to do little more than streamline the process for the relatively small number of individuals whose injuries – primarily anaphylaxis and myocarditis/pericarditis – are already recognized under the current system,” added Wallskog, also the co-chair of the React19 nonprofit, which offers support to people injured by COVID-19 vaccines. “For everyone else who has been denied, nothing changes.”
Erica Samp, who says she was injured by a COVID-19 vaccine, said in a post on X that she supported the plan but that she’s watching to see what details are included, including the covered injuries.
The CICP is both administered and adjudicated by HHS officials. It has compensated some people who have said COVID-19 vaccination caused health issues, but rejected others, including people such as Wallskog, whom doctors diagnosed as being injured by COVID-19 vaccines, The Epoch Times previously reported.
The CICP has, through June, compensated 60 COVID-19 vaccine injury claims, nearly all for myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation. The average compensation has been $4,000, aside from a few large payments, and about 99 percent of applications have been rejected.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in 2024 that COVID-19 vaccines definitely cause myocarditis and shoulder injuries, but that other possible harms could not be conclusively linked to the shots.
Some outside organizations, such as React19, have said that the available evidence supports a link between the vaccines and additional problems.
Mitsubishi Motors Joins Physical AI Race With Humanoid Robot Production Deal
Mitsubishi Motors shares surged as much as 17% in Tokyo on Friday after the automaker unveiled a deal with the University of Tokyo startup Highlanders to mass-produce humanoid robots, signaling a push beyond its core automotive business and reinforcing a broader trend we have highlighted that could sweep across the global auto industry.
Highlanders signed an MOU with Mitsubishi Motors to develop humanoid robots for automotive factories and mass production at Mitsubishi’s Kyoto plant as early as 2027. Early production runs could amount to 1,000 per month.
The Japanese automaker plans to test the humanoids in its own facilities to address labor shortages and increasingly complex manufacturing, using operational data to guide a broader rollout. Mitsubishi has already invested in Highlanders.
Citi analyst Arifumi Yoshida wrote in his first take that the partnership between Mitsubishi Motors and Highlanders is “positive” for the automaker’s stock, as it signals a push into physical AI:
After the July 9 market close, Mitsubishi Motors announced an MOU with Short-Term View: Upside Highlanders, a University of Tokyo startup, for the mass production of Price (09 Jul 26 15:30) ¥330.6 humanoid robots at its Kyoto plant. Production will begin in early 2027, Target price ¥420.0 with monthly production capacity of c1,000 units prepared. Highlanders will handle development and sales, while Mitsubishi Motors will leverage Expected share price return 27.0% its automotive production expertise in quality and other areas to provide Expected dividend yield 3.0% production and development support. Mitsubishi Motors has invested in Expected total return 30.1% Highlanders and is considering additional investment. The company plans Market Cap ¥442,459M to utilize the robots in Mitsubishi Motors factories while marketing them US$2,742M as Japan-originated physical AI products to diverse industries domestically and internationally. Multiple inquiries have already been received. We believe the stock market will welcome this initiative to expand its automotive business expertise into physical AI, which has also been earmarked as a national priority.
Mitsubishi Motors shares in Tokyo closed up 10% on Friday but remain at 2022 lows.
In recent weeks, Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee pointed out, “OEMs are entering humanoid robotics to boost productivity and unlock new revenue streams.” Read the note here.
Lee noted, “Automakers have several advantages across hardware, software, and scale. There is significant overlap between vehicle and humanoid components—motors, reducers, sensors —as well as manufacturing.”
It appears that Mitsubishi Motors is following other automakers, including Tesla and several Chinese companies, in making a big push into humanoid robotics development and mass production. EVs and humanoid robots share similar component ecosystems, manufacturing processes, and supply chains, giving automakers a potential advantage in scaling up production.
Here is a complete overview of the automakers developing humanoid robots:
Humanoid production ramps globally begin next year. Read report.
Does this suggest that legacy US automakers will eventually partner with humanoid robotics firms? What about Rivian and Lucid? The race for physical AI is underway.
Confirming reports from earlier this week, the latest estimates from the International Energy Agency signaled that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which unexpectedly quit OPEC earlier this year in a shock move that threatened the cohesion of OPEC, produced 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, its highest output ever.
The UAE’s crude oil production jumped from 3.3 million bpd in May to 4.1 million bpd in June after the country left OPEC effective May 1, started raising output, and managed to sneak a lot of exports out of the Middle East even as the Strait of Hormuz was mostly blockaded for the first half of June.
The crude oil production in June, at 4.1 million bpd, was the highest ever on record for the UAE, nearly double the output in March 2026 at the start of the Hormuz crisis. The production level also topped the previous record of 4 million bpd from the spring of 2020 when the OPEC+ producers were fighting for market share in a brief price war during peak Covid, according to OilPrice.com
The UAE has sought to adapt to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by sneaking tankers in dark mode through the Strait and increasingly offering to sell many of its crude grades for loading offshore Fujairah and at Sohar in Oman, outside the Strait.
Moreover, the Abu Dhabi national oil company ADNOC accelerated plans to have a new pipeline operational in 2027 that would double its oil export capacity through Fujairah, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz.
ADNOC plans to build a new project, the West-East 1 Pipeline, which is expected to become operational next year and double the UAE’s energy giant’s export capacity through the Emirate of Fujairah to meet global demand for energy supplies.
The national oil company also plans to plans to award as much as $55 billion (200 billion UAE dirhams) on upstream and downstream projects over the next two years. The announcement of accelerated growth came days after the UAE said it would quit OPEC effective May 1 to pursue its national interests.
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz increased substantially after the US and Iran announced a “peace” agreement in mid-June. However, those numbers have started to dwindle as the ceasefire—peacefire, shmeasefire—appears increasingly shaky. According to Bloomberg, the Joint Maritime Information Center said that traffic through the Strait remains at “reduced levels,” (around 24% of pre-war transit) even though US-assisted vessel transits have been largely uninhibited.
Reuters reports that “some war insurers advise shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after attacks,” adding that “war insurance for ships inside the Gulf has already ticked higher towards 3% of a vessel’s value, up from 2% at the end of last week.” Meanwhile, quotes for coverage as high as 5% are still circulating. So even though the Strait is technically open, there don’t seem to be many takers—nor tankers.
Trump did declare just a few days ago that the ceasefire was “over,” with the US commencing strikes on Iranian sites, including the Iranshahr airbase, and Iran responding by attacking its neighbors in Kuwait and Jordan. Yesterday afternoon, explosions were heard in Bushehr, which is—likely not coincidentally—home to Iran’s only nuclear power plant. Initial reports suggest that the power plant itself was not hit. Brent crude oil prices did not move in reaction to the announcement.
Whether the ceasefire is truly “over,” or whether another MOU will emerge in the coming days (weeks? months?), remains very much an open question. Oil markets, however, remain as optimistic as ever. While Brent crude climbed by roughly $8, briefly trading above $80/bbl for the first time since 22 June, more than half of that move was retraced yesterday, with prices closing at around $76/bbl.
In other news, Anthropic has tapped former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to join its Oversight Trust, which seeks to “keep the artificial intelligence company accountable to its public mission.” The importance of the Oversight Trust has only intensified following earlier events this year, when Anthropic delayed the release of its Mythos model and triggered an emergency meeting among global leaders to address concerns about its potentially dangerous capabilities.
New York Fed President, John Williams, made several notable comments today on inflation, that seem to be at odds with those of current Fed Chair Warsh. In a speech organized by the New York Fed, Williams highlighted his concerns about the inflationary effects of AI, saying that “if [AI demand] creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think that’s the kind of situation where you don’t look through.” Some readers may recall Warsh’s manifesto published to the Wall Street Journal in November of last year titled “The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership,” where Warsh calls attention to the disinflationary effects of AI, saying that “AI will be a significant disinflationary force, increasing productivity and bolstering American competitiveness.” While Williams also notes the potential for AI to “play out in a more benign way,” his aforementioned base case shines a light into the varying schools of thought and the potential for “good family fights” when the Fed next convenes.
Task Force Warsh also announced the individuals who will be leading each of his five Fed task forces:
Communication: Former BoE governor Mervyn King, UW professor Peter Fisher, and former BCB President Arminio Fraga.
Balance sheet: Harvard University professors Karen Dynan and Jeremy Stein, and former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan.
Data sources: Harvard University’s Raj Chetty, former Walmart CEO, Doug McMillon, and UChicago’s Kevin Murphy.
Productivity and jobs: Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz, Stanford’s Carles I. Jones, and Asha Sharma from Microsoft.
Inflation framework: Harvard University’s Greg Mankiw, NYU’s Thomas Sargent, and the BIS’s former economic advisor, William White.
Canada’s Mark Carney spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah (the first Canadian PM to make the trip since the year 2000) to discuss the war between the US and Iran, as well as opportunities for economic collaboration. This resulted in the signing of several MOUs, including one to “strengthen cooperation across key defense, economic, trade and investment, cultural, educational, scientific, and consular priorities. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is now also scheduled to attend the Canada Investment Forum in September.
Guns Fall Silent As Trump Says US-Iran Talks On Again, But Insists ‘In No Uncertain Terms, Ceasefire Is OVER’
The guns have actually been silent in the Middle East overnight, after two days of deadly strikes between the United States and Iran, amid a general return to premarket open headlines of ‘peace imminent again’ as mediators desperately work to get diplomacy back on track. The White House position is that the ceasefire is over but that Washington has agreed to reengage Tehran in mediated talks.
Trump indicates US has agreed to Iran talks, but United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that cease fire is over.
The New York Timeswrites early Thursday that “Qatar, which helped broker the U.S.-Iran truce last month, has been in talks with Washington and Tehran to de-escalate the crisis, according to two officials with knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. In recent days, several other regional countries — Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, all of which host U.S. military facilities — said they have come under Iranian attack.”
The same report further says, “Even as the fighting appeared to subside on Friday, it remained unclear whether the latest mediation efforts could prevent that cycle from repeating.” The situation has devolved into a “dangerous test of wills, with each side trying to show that it can absorb the other’s attacks and respond forcefully, without tipping the conflict back into full-scale war,” NYT continues.
And separately Bloomberg also reports, “Talks between the US and Iran on a permanent peace deal are continuing, according to a US official, despite two days of clashes that threatened an already fragile ceasefire. The renewed hostilities risk undermining efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories, the International Energy Agency said.”
Bloomberg continues: “Oil prices steadied on Friday after a bumpy week. While gasoline prices have fallen since the fragile ceasefire, they’ve lagged crude’s sharp decline, prompting one asset manager to buy protection against stickier-than-expected US inflation.”
There appears real movement on this, given also that Reuters is freshly reporting that Qatar negotiators are currently in Iran to meet Iranian officials, as part of the effort to immediately de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations.
Still, the crisis is on edge and full-scale war could return at any moment, also as the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency is once again alerting global vessels security threat in the Strait of Hormuz remains at its highest level.
In Iran, the burial of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has finally concluded, and the IRGC’s top commander, Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi, has pledged vengeance against the US and Israel for the assassination, saying it won’t “be erased from the historical memory.”
The Revolutionary Guard chief called for the “full realization of justice and a fitting response to the criminals, especially the child-killing American army.” An estimated 41-43 million people attended the six-day funeral for the late Khamenei, according to Iranian media.
NEW: Iran warns it will retaliate against infrastructure attacks and strike Israel in response. pic.twitter.com/JmkyZ7Zeyy
In the meantime we commented overnight on who is not seeking permanent Iran peace at this point, on lingering concerns about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal in a Thursday evening report says that Israel has provided fresh intelligence to the White House indicating just such a Tehran-linked plot.
The timing is quite curious and interesting given it comes just as the warring sides standing on the brink of returning once again either to talks, or to full-scale war:
Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill President Trump, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that would mark an escalation in the war between Washington and Iran.
Iran for years has vowed openly to retaliate against Trump for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, who was a top general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the president’s first term.
The Israeli embassy in Washington declined to comment. Iran’s Mission to the United Nations didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The White House referred The Wall Street Journal to comments the president made on Wednesday.
The Israelis have remained deeply dissatisfied with terms laid out in the previously agreed-to MoU, and so have every incentive to goad Washington further into the conflict. Certainly many within the US administration know this, and so might be taking this new ‘intelligence warning’ – which was leaked rather quickly to major media – with the appropriate degree of skepticism.
The US has still – somewhat surprisingly – affirmed it remainsengaged in ‘technical talks’ with Iran, despite the prior days of tit-for-tat bombings. “Technical talks between the US and Iran are continuing, according to a US official, following two days of clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire between the two nations,” reports Bloomberg, also late in the day Thursday. “The US is still committed to finding a solution with Iran, the official said Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter.”
So it appears there’s still hope that things might not spiral further. As for the alleged assassination plot, this isn’t the first time Iran has faced such accusations, and each time Tehran officials have vehemently denied them.
SK Hynix ADRs Set To Open At $181, Well Above Offering Price
Summary:
SK Hynix’s ADRs Set to Open at $181, 22% Premium Above $149 Offering Price
SK Hynix ADRs Priced At 3% Premium As Wall Street Readies Wave Of Leveraged ETFs
SK Hynix’s ADRs Set to Open At Premium
SK Hynix’s ADRs, trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV, are indicated to open at $181 per share, 22% above their $149 offering price. The strong opening suggests robust investor demand for the world’s leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory.
As noted earlier, SK Hynix sold 177.9 million ADRs at $149 per share, raising roughly $26.5 billion. Each receipt represents one-tenth of a Seoul-listed common share.
The temporary trading symbol SKHYV will switch to SKHY when regular-way trading begins next Monday.
Roth Capital Partners’ sales trading team asked:
One may ask how investors, looking back in two years, will come to view the timing and meaning of SK Hynix’s U.S. offering?
SK Hynix ADRs Priced At 3% Premium As Wall Street Readies Wave Of Leveraged ETFs
The next test of the AI trade arrives today, as South Korean memory-chip maker SK Hynix’s American depositary receipts begin trading under the temporary ticker SKHYV.
Shares were priced at about a 3% premium to Thursday’s close of its ordinary shares in South Korea. The $26.5 billion offering attracted demand for roughly seven times the shares available, forcing the chipmaker to scale back allocations to major investors, according to Bloomberg.
The company sold 177.9 million ADRs at $149 each, raising $26.5 billion, surpassing Alibaba’s US debut to become the third-largest listing in history. Each ADR represents one-tenth of a Seoul-listed common share, giving US investors direct exposure to the world’s leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory amid the AI boom that could soon unlock the Physical AI boom.
According to the report, Baillie Gifford, Coatue Management, and Situational Awareness Partners received about $5 billion of ADRs, roughly $2 billion less than indicated. Over 500 institutional investors placed orders, including long-only funds, technology specialists, and sovereign wealth funds. The allocation remained concentrated, with 10 investors taking half the deal and the top 25 accounting for about two-thirds.
Wall Street analysts weighed in with their first takes of the deal, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Jung In Yun, CEO at Fibonacci Asset Management
“I take 3% premium as a constructive signal. It shows that global investors are still willing to pay up for direct US access despite the recent volatility in Korean equities”
From the company’s and banks’ perspective, the level looks sensible; it is strong enough to demonstrate demand, but not so aggressive that it creates unnecessary aftermarket risk
In the current market, a clean, stable debut matters more than squeezing out the last few percentage points of valuation
Sanghyun Park, founder of Clepsydra Capital
It shows global funds accept paying up to bypass local index and currency friction and direct exposure to the company’s HBM dominance
The banks capitalized on the limit to conversion that prevents arb traders from instantly erasing the spread on the first trading day
This avoids the typical Korea Discount seen with legacy local names and points toward a TSMC-style scarcity model
“Since 3% is just the primary floor and the float is so heavily choked, we could easily see the premium gap much higher once US trading opens on Friday”
Travis Lundy, an independent special situations analyst who publishes on Smartkarma
“To me that is not that much of a premium. Eminently reasonable given the current swap rates on owning SK Hynix” local shares
The 3% premium to Thursday’s close is actually a discounted price to Wednesday’s close and every other close for the past few weeks when investor demand was “multiple times” the offering size
There is an interesting dynamic whereby if the headroom expands, it will take pressure off the banks to fund local into swaps, which should reduce the swap rate, which should in turn reduce the ADR premium slightly
Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group
“The 3% premium tells you the roadshow demand was strong enough to price above Thursday’s Korean close — and that’s the first concrete evidence that the accessibility premium is real”
The real test will be the first two weeks of trading before upcoming earnings; if the ADR consistently trades above the Korean share dollar equivalent, it confirms US investors are willing to pay a premium for accessibility — and that should pull the Korean shares higher
The ADRs could be included in the Nasdaq 100 in December; once that inclusion happens, passive fund inflows from vehicles like the Invesco QQQ become a mechanical buying force
Francis Oh, head of Asia business development at Rex Financial, which provides exchange-traded products
“The current 3% premium should not be over-interpreted at this early stage”
“TSMC’s 18% premium reflects structural friction that accumulated over years, not a level established immediately post-listing; any meaningful convergence or divergence for SKHY toward comparable levels is more likely to unfold as a gradual”
SK Hynix’s ADR offering comes weeks after SpaceX tapped the public markets in the largest initial public offering in history, while Alphabet is raising $85 billion to fund its AI buildout. Traders are betting heavily that AI-related demand is a secular growth story for memory stocks, which have historically been viewed as more cyclical.
Bloomberg expects that the US debut of SK Hynix will unlock a new “wave of leverage ETFs” tied to the chipmaker’s American depositary receipts. It expects ProShares, Leverage Shares and Rex Shares are some of the fism planning to products taht offer 2x daily returns on the memory chip giant.
Bloomberg Intelligence noted:
A fresh pool of leveraged US-listed ETPs would mean the daily rebalancing flows would grow larger, potentially fueling already heightened volatility. The size of the leveraged products also made it difficult to meet the promise of delivering twice daily returns, creating a tracking gap.
Trump Refuses To Sign Landmark Housing Bill In Protest Over Stalled Elections Legislation
President Donald Trump declared Friday morning that he won’t sign the sweeping bipartisan housing bill awaiting action on his desk in protest of the Senate’s failure to pass his signature elections legislation. Unless the president issues an outright veto by midnight, however, the housing package will become law Saturday without his signature.
In a Friday morning Truth Social post, Trump said he was withholding his signature “in PROTEST” over the Senate’s inability to pass the SAVE America Act, a comprehensive elections overhaul that would require photo identification to vote and proof of citizenship to register, and would bar most mail-in balloting, with exceptions for military service, disability, illness and travel.
The president asserted that the elections bill is “polling at 97% with the Republican Party” – a figure he offered without citing a source – and called its failure “a serious threat to any politician who votes against it.” He renewed his demand that Senate Republicans “TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER,” warning that Democrats would abolish the 60-vote rule “in their very first hour” back in power. Rendering “Democrats” throughout with a derisive misspelling, Trump added that the “title of DUMB” would revert to Republicans if the party allowed the stalemate to stand.
A Deadline, Not A Veto
This is of course performative unless Trump actually vetoes it. Under the Constitution, a bill becomes law automatically if the president neither signs nor vetoes it within 10 days, excluding Sundays, while Congress is in session. That clock on the housing measure – the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act – runs out at the end of Friday.
Because Congress has remained formally in session through the window, the “pocket veto” that would let the bill die quietly is widely viewed as unavailable. That leaves Trump two choices: veto the legislation outright, or let it lapse into law. His post on Friday, notably, promised only not to sign it.
A veto would face long odds. The Senate approved the package 85-5 on June 22, and the House passed it 358-32 – margins far beyond the two-thirds needed in each chamber to override. Congressional observers caution, though, that override votes can scramble such numbers, as some members retreat rather than be seen defying the president. Lawmakers overrode a Trump veto of a defense bill once before, in the final weeks of his first term.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., a close Trump ally, has already conceded the likely endgame. “If he doesn’t, it’s still law,” Johnson said last week of the president’s refusal to sign.
The Housing Bill
The bipartisan measure marks the most comprehensive federal housing legislation in decades. It aims to expand supply and lower costs by cutting regulatory barriers to construction, streamlining reviews, encouraging local zoning reform and restricting large institutional investors from buying up single-family homes, alongside pilot programs to expand access to smaller mortgages.
Republicans had planned to campaign on the law this fall. With the average 30-year fixed mortgage hovering near 6.5 percent, affordability consistently ranks as voters’ top concern heading into November’s midterm elections – and Trump’s approval on housing has slipped since he began blocking the bill.
Trump upended the bill’s rollout on June 24, canceling a Capitol signing ceremony roughly an hour before it was to begin – with the stage, desk and presidential seal already set in Statuary Hall – and declaring on social media that he would not sign until Congress passed the SAVE America Act, which he labeled “a National Emergency.” He has since dismissed the housing package as being “of minor importance” and a “yawn” next to the elections bill.
The tactic is familiar: earlier this year, the president derailed a bipartisan deal on surveillance authorities to press the same demand.
The SAVE America Act has passed the House but failed five times on the Senate floor, where Democrats are unified against it and Republicans’ 53 seats fall short of the 60 needed to break a filibuster. Four Republicans – Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky – have twice voted no.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-SD, has flatly refused to gut the filibuster, telling Fox News that Republicans are “bound by arithmetic.” Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, the bill’s most vocal Senate champion, has countered that the party is only “10 votes shy of cloture” and should force Democrats into a grinding floor fight. Roughly two dozen House conservatives, meanwhile, have vowed to block other legislation until the voting bill moves – a rebellion that stalled the annual defense bill and sent the House home early for its July Fourth recess.
Friday’s post also appears to walk back a compromise Trump embraced only days ago. On Tuesday, he endorsed House GOP leaders’ plan to pass pieces of the SAVE Act through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process – a package Johnson has dubbed “reconciliation 3.0.” The president’s return to demanding the filibuster’s termination suggests that détente may already be fraying.
And Of Course, Outrage Ensues
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, who helped steer the housing bill through the Senate, urged Trump in a video posted to X to “sign the damn bill.” Sen. Mark Kelly, D-AZ, accused the president of holding the legislation “hostage.”
Republican patience is thinning in public, too. Tillis, who is retiring, reduced his objection to a sentence: “It’s quite simple: It’s a math problem.” Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas quipped that any colleague not at least a little frustrated by now should question their own sanity. Thune, asked about the canceled signing last month, would say only that the decision was the president’s call to make.
Trump has shown no sign of relenting. He promoted the SAVE Act from the National Mall during his July Fourth address, and in a weekend post warned that without it, “I don’t want to be the last Republican President!”
