Pain at the pump might not ease up for American consumers until 2027, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who said on April 19 that the price of a regular gallon of gas could stay above $3 for the rest of the year.

Wright said a price of $3 per gallon of gas “could happen later this ​year, [but] that might not happen until next year” in an interview that aired on CNN’s ”State of the Union” ​program Sunday.

“But prices have ⁠likely peaked, and they’ll start going down certainly with a resolution of this conflict [in Iran],” Wright predicted while speaking about how the war has impacted energy prices.

As of April 19, the average price for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was $4.04, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

States on the West Coast and the Northeast have the highest prices, according to AAA.

Before the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against the Iranian regime on Feb. 28, the price for a regular gallon of gas in the U.S. was $2.98.

The Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook, published on April 7, predicted the average retail price for a gallon of gasoline would be $4.30 per gallon in April.

The Energy Information Administration – designed as a nonpartisan agency within Wright’s Department of Energy – estimated the retail price for an average gallon of gasoline will be $3.46 in 2027, above the $3 level he predicted on CNN.

As the chart above shows, for pump prices to fall back to $3 a gallon, we would need to see crude oil prices back around $60 a barrel – a long way down given the disruptions from the Iran War are likely to ripple through the supply chain for months.

Finally, The Hill’s White House correspondent, Julia Manchester, reports that President Trump just told her over the phone that he disagrees with Energy Secretary Wright’s assessment that gas prices may not drop until next year. 

“No, I think he’s wrong on that. Totally wrong,” Trump said, adding that gas prices will drop “as soon as this ends.”

With the Midterms looming ever closer, Trump better hope he’s right and Wright is wrong.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Iran shock erased 18% from valuations and fully recovered in two weeks. Investors who panicked missed it all. Here’s what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now.

The stock market selloff between February 28 and April 14 produced one of the more instructive market lessons in recent memory. It isn’t because of what the market did, but because of what investors did in response. By April 2nd, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed bearish sentiment at 51.4%, the highest reading in years, well above the historical average of 31%. Put option volume surged, and the financial media ran daily coverage of worst-case oil scenarios, recession projections, and S&P 500 targets as low as 3,800.

However, when you have that combination of bearishness, as we discussed in 5-Consecutive Weekly Declines, markets tend to perform better.

What was surprising was that the S&P 500 recovered completely in two weeks and is now setting all-time highs.

That sequence is not a reason to relax, but it is a valuable market lesson. It is also a good reason to examine what happened to investors who panicked, why the pattern repeats with such regularity, and, most importantly, what a well-constructed portfolio actually looks like when the next stock market selloff arrives. Because it will arrive. The only uncertainty is the catalyst.

The Drill & The Failure

Every major market shock is a test, a market lesson to be learned from. Not a test of whether your thesis was right, or whether you picked the right stocks. A test of whether your portfolio was built to hold under pressure, and whether your instincts are an asset or a liability when it counts.

The Iran conflict delivered a real economic shock. U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tehran retaliated against Gulf energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows daily, ground to a halt. Brent crude surged from $61 at year-end to over $114 a barrel, and that spike raised inflation expectations, hammered small caps, and sent Asian equity markets into a tailspin as energy costs threatened to consume the profit margins underpinning the region’s AI and manufacturing boom.

Then, at what seemed to be the darkest moment, the market repriced all of that in two weeks. Valuations declined roughly 18% as investors adjusted for the expected impact of higher oil prices on earnings and consumer spending. That repricing was rational, but the panic layered on top of it was not. In the middle of the selloff, predictions of a structural bear market were everywhere, but none of them materialized.

That pattern of maximum fear at the exact moment prices are lowest, followed by regret as they recover, is a market lesson that repeats itself regularly. The investors who liquidated near the recent lows, as sentiment turned negative, locked in losses. But two weeks later, they face an even more difficult decision: do I reenter at prices 10% higher than the ones I sold at? Most don’t. That gap between market returns and the average investor’s actual earnings is the most expensive line item in the typical portfolio.

What Risk Is, And Isn’t

The word “risk” gets used so loosely in financial media that it has lost most of its meaning. A falling stock price isn’t the definition of “risk.” Neither is a scary headline. Volatility isn’t risk either; it’s the price of admission for participating in markets over time.

As I’ve said previously, if you aren’t willing to watch your portfolio decline 10% to 15% without doing something rash, you aren’t really an investor; you are a speculator who happens to be holding stocks.

Risk, defined precisely, is the probability of a permanent impairment of capital. Not temporary losses, or a 10% drawdown that reverses in two weeks. Risk is the permanent impairment of capital, resulting in significantly diminished future outcomes. The distinction is enormous, separating investors who compound wealth over decades from those who don’t.

When the S&P 500 dropped during the Iran shock, the vast majority of that decline reflected a temporary repricing of earnings expectations under elevated oil prices. The underlying companies, their cash flows, their competitive advantages, and their earnings power didn’t change materially. The price changed, but the value didn’t. Investors who sold during that repricing didn’t escape risk; they converted a temporary paper loss into a realized one and then forfeited the recovery.

The market lesson is in the chart. Fear peaked at the moment prices were most attractive. By the time the market had recovered and all-time highs were being printed, fear had nearly returned to historical norms. The investors who acted on that peak in fear did exactly the wrong thing at exactly the wrong moment. The investors who recognized it as a contrarian signal, or who simply had the discipline to do nothing, participated in the full recovery.

The Behavior Gap: The Most Expensive Cost

Dalbar Inc. has published an annual study for over 30 years, measuring the difference between the return delivered by the stock market and the return actually earned by the average equity investor. The gap, which Dalbar calls the “behavior gap,” has consistently shown that the average investor earns two to three percentage points less per year than the indices they’re invested in. That shortfall isn’t explained by fees or bad stock selection. It’s explained entirely by timing decisions: buying after rallies and selling during selloffs.

Over 30 years, a two-percentage-point annual shortfall compounds into a staggering wealth gap. A $500,000 portfolio growing at 8% a year becomes roughly $5 million. The same portfolio growing at 6%, because the investor panicked during selloffs and missed recoveries, becomes roughly $2.9 million. That $2.1 million gap is the price of panic. And the investor who sold near the April 2nd sentiment extreme has already paid a portion of it.

After every major market shock, the “this time is different” argument gains traction. The Iran conflict gave that argument real support. It was a genuine exogenous shock with measurable economic consequences, not a technical correction or manufactured volatility. But the historical record on recovery from sharp, shock-driven selloffs is remarkably consistent, and favors the patient investor over the reactive one.

Since 1950, there have been 20 instances in which the S&P 500 rose more than 10% in a 10-day period, the kind of snapback recovery we saw in April. Over the following 12 months, the index was higher in 17 of those 20 cases, with an average gain of 19%. Nasdaq win streaks of comparable magnitude resolved higher 100% of the time over 12 months, with average gains near 26%. Those numbers don’t guarantee another selloff isn’t coming. That means the investors best positioned to capture those forward returns are the ones who stayed disciplined through the downturn. They rebalanced into weakness, and held enough cash to redeploy rather than liquidate.

Consider 2022. The Fed’s tightening cycle produced a 9-month bear market that erased ~25% from the S&P 500. The investors who sold in October 2022, when sentiment was just as dark as it was in early April 2026, missed a recovery that added nearly 60% over the next two years. The pattern repeats because human psychology repeats. The catalyst changes. The behavior doesn’t.

Build a Shock-Resistant Portfolio

Building a portfolio that survives market selloffs without requiring heroic decision-making isn’t complicated. It’s only unpopular because it involves accepting modest underperformance during the easy, low-volatility periods in exchange for not being the person who liquidates at the bottom during the hard ones.

The UBS analysis of the Iran shock made a point worth internalizing. The assets that acted as refuges during 2025’s tariff-driven selloff, such as gold, the Japanese yen, and Treasuries, provided meaningfully less protection this year. The assets that performed well in 2026, particularly the trade-weighted dollar, did little to offset losses during last year’s episode. In other words, building a portfolio to hedge against the last crisis is a losing strategy. The next one will look different.

The more durable approach focuses not on predicting which hedge will work, but on maintaining portfolio construction that allows you to hold through volatility without being forced to sell. That means genuine diversification across asset classes and geographies. It means a real cash buffer that functions as optionality. It also means rebalancing mechanically rather than emotionally, adding exposure when prices are low and trimming when they’ve run ahead of value.

The Iran conflict reframed a question many investors had avoided asking: Were they genuinely diversified? Investors with heavy commodity-linked exposure looked prescient during the decline. But that quickly fell out of favor as megacap technology stocks took center stage during the recovery. Having diversification means you had positions that performed during both the decline and the rally. Concentrated, one-sided portfolios rarely perform well over the long term.

Here are seven portfolio actions to think about today.

The six weeks between late February and mid-April gave every investor a real-world market lesson. That lesson was in both portfolio construction and behavioral discipline. It wasn’t about Iran, oil prices, or the Strait of Hormuz. The lesson was whether your portfolio was built to withstand a genuine shock. And whether you know the difference between a temporary price decline and a permanent impairment of value.

Those who held, rebalanced, and redeployed cash came out ahead. Those who sold near the lows are now deciding what to do with prices ~10% higher. Most won’t. That’s the behavior gap in real time, and it compounds across every market cycle over an investing lifetime.

After 30 years of watching this pattern repeat, I can tell you with confidence that no amount of market forecasting substitutes for a sound process. The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, the ten-year Treasury yield is near 4.3%, and the geopolitical situation is improving, or at least markets are pricing it that way. What comes next is unknowable. What you do with your portfolio in the meantime is entirely within your control.

That’s always been the real market lesson. The Iran shock just delivered it again, free of charge and clearly labeled.

What you do with it is up to you.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Ashraf Al Safoo from Chicago has been sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for conspiring to provide material support to ISIS, which involved recruiting members into the terror group and encouraging attacks on its enemies.

Al Safoo, 41, was a leader of online organization Khattab Media Foundation, which pledged allegiance to ISIS, the Department of Justice (DOJ) said in an April 17 press release. The foundation created and spread threats and ISIS propaganda online, with Al Safoo and other members posting pro-ISIS articles, videos, infographics, and essays in coordination with the terrorist outfit.

Most of the propaganda spread by Khattab promoted violent jihad on behalf of ISIS.

The organization’s posts celebrated mass shootings and terror attacks in the United States and encouraged people to engage in “lone wolf” attacks in Western nations.

In one post, Al Safoo asked Khattab members to “cause confusion and spread terror within the hearts of those who disbelieved,” according to the DOJ press release.

In another post, Al Safoo wrote, “Work hard, brothers, edit the issue into short clips, take the pictures out of it and publish the efforts of your brothers in the pages of the apostates. Participate in the war, and spread terror, the [Islamic] State does not want you to watch it only, rather, it incites you, and if you are unable to, use it to incite others.”

Al Safoo immigrated to the United States in 2008 and was naturalized in 2013. In 2018, he was arrested and has since been in federal custody.

A bench trial was conducted last year, after which U.S. District Judge John Robert Blakey found Al Safoo guilty of various charges.

On April 16, Blakey imposed a 25-year prison term for Al Safoo, followed by 10 years of court-supervised release.

The State Department designated ISIS’s predecessor group, al-Qaeda in Iraq, as a foreign terrorist organization in December 2004 under the George W. Bush administration. When ISIS was formed in 2013, the designation carried over.

Over the past several months, multiple individuals have been detained for their support of ISIS.

In December 2025, a Texas man alleged to be an ISIS sympathizer was charged with an international terrorism offense. The man allegedly provided funding and bomb making equipment to people he believed were acting on behalf of ISIS.

Earlier in November, a dual American Albanian national was arrested and charged in New York for allegedly providing support to ISIS and distributing instructions for homemade bombs.

During a testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security on Dec. 11, Michael Glasheen, operations director at the FBI, highlighted how ISIS continues to pose a threat to American interests, both domestically and abroad.

The terror outfit is able to “direct, enable, and inspire attacks through their successful use of social media and messaging applications to attract individuals. ISIS seeks direct confrontation with the United States, and almost certainly would exploit any opportunity to attack the U.S. or Western interests,” Glasheen said.

Like other foreign terrorist organizations, he said, “ISIS advocates for lone-offender attacks in the U.S. and Western countries via videos and other English-language propaganda that have specifically advocated for attacks against civilians, the military, law enforcement, and intelligence community personnel.”

The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said that ISIS and al-Qaeda have implemented a decentralized plotting approach toward Western nations.

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Both groups are referencing Israel’s operations in Gaza to generate revenue, hire new members, and inspire attacks against U.S., Jewish, Israeli, and European interests internationally.

“The groups are also seeking to improve their weapons capabilities, including with commercial technologies such as UAVs and artificial intelligence,” the report said, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles.

In December, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had initiated Operation Hawkeye Strike in Syria following an attack that killed two Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter.

CENTCOM said in a Feb. 14 update that since the launch of Operation Hawkeye Strike, “more than 50 ISIS terrorists have been killed or captured and over 100 ISIS infrastructure targets have been struck with hundreds of precision munitions during two months of targeted operations.”

Despite Orban’s loss in Hungary earlier this month, Europe’s populist right is not dead by a longshot. Official results released Monday show former President Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition capturing roughly 44.6-44.7% of the vote in Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections, delivering an absolute majority of approximately 130-135 seats in the 240-seat parliament. It marks the first time since 1997 that a single political force in Bulgaria will be able to govern without coalition horse-trading.

Radev, who stepped down from the presidency in January to lead the new party, wasted no time celebrating outside his headquarters. “This is a victory of hope over distrust, a victory of freedom over fear, and finally a victory of morality,” he declared, adding that voters had rejected “the arrogance of old parties and didn’t bend to their lies and manipulations.”

The rout was total for the old guard. GERB, led by veteran ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, was left in the dust at roughly 12-15%, while the pro-European reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition trailed even further behind. Turnout climbed modestly to around 47%, reflecting voter fatigue after eight elections in five years but still signaling a clear mandate for change amid widespread frustration with corruption, graft, and economic stagnation.

Radev, a eurosceptic former fighter pilot, built his campaign around calls for pragmatic ties with Moscow, resumption of Russian energy supplies and an end to military aid for Ukraine. He has repeatedly criticized EU overreach on green-energy mandates, sanctions policies and what he describes as moral posturing in a “world without rules.” While analysts note he is unlikely to jeopardize the flow of EU funds that sustain Bulgaria’s economy, the result installs a distinctly Russia-friendly government at the heart of the EU’s southeastern flank – a shift that will draw close scrutiny in Brussels, Washington and Kyiv.

As we highlighted ahead of the vote, Radev’s campaign leaned heavily into criticism of EU overreach – particularly its green-energy obsession, sanctions regime, and moral posturing in a “world without rules.” He has repeatedly called for improved relations with Moscow, resumption of Russian energy flows, and an end to military aid for Ukraine. While analysts stress he is unlikely to risk the flow of EU funds that have propped up Bulgaria’s economy, his victory installs a distinctly Russia-friendly voice at the heart of the EU’s southeastern flank – a development that will be watched closely in Brussels, Washington, and Kyiv

The result hands Radev the chance to form a stable government on his own terms – something Bulgarian voters have craved after repeated rounds of political paralysis. Whether he delivers the “pragmatism” he promised or whether entrenched interests and EU pressure blunt his agenda remains to be seen. For now, though, the message from Sofia is unmistakable: the old system has been decisively rejected, and Bulgaria is charting a new course under its former pro-Russian president.

* * * Earlier

Just as Europe’s neoliberal establishment was celebrating the downfall of Hungary’s Orban and his replacement with… another hard-line ant- immigrationist, it got some bad news on Sunday, as Bulgaria’s pro-Russian former President Rumen Radev was set for a runaway victory in the election and may even secure a parliamentary majority in the poorest EU state, ‌exit polls showed, potentially ending years of weak coalition governments and altering the European Union member’s foreign policy.

An updated exit poll conducted by Sofia-based Alpha Research showed Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria with 44%, far ahead of the long-dominant GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, at 12.5%.

If confirmed, the performance, which outstripped opinion polls, would mark one of the strongest results by ​a single party in a generation, sideline a party that has ruled on and off for decades, and may see an end to the ​instability that has resulted in eight elections in five years.

“Progressive Bulgaria won decisively. This is a victory of hope over ⁠distrust, a victory of freedom over fear, and finally, if you will, a victory of morality,” Radev said of the exit poll results during a press conference.

Radev, ​a eurosceptic and former fighter pilot who opposes military support for Ukraine’s war effort against Moscow, stepped down from the presidency in January to run in the parliamentary election, ​which comes after mass protests forced out the previous government in December.

According to Reuters, Radev rode a wave of frustration with political instability in the Balkan country of 6.5 million people, where voters are sick of corruption and veteran parties that have dominated politics for decades. Alpha Research put turnout at 47% with one hour of voting to go, up from the 39% total in ​the last election in October 2024.

“There is now an opportunity for the things people have been hoping to see change to actually become visible,” Evelina Koleva, a ​manager at digital marketing company in Sofia, told Reuters.

Final election results are expected on Monday.

In his campaign, Radev drew comparisons with Hungary’s pro-Kremlin former Prime Minister ‌Viktor Orban ⁠when he talked about improving relations with Moscow and resuming the free flow of Russian oil and gas into Europe. He also criticized the EU for relying too heavily on renewable energy.

It is not clear how much his views will impact the foreign policy of Bulgaria, a NATO member on the EU’s southeastern flank which joined the euro zone in January – a move Radev has criticised.

He said he would be willing to work on judicial reform with the pro-European reformist We Continue ​the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which came third ​in the Alpha Research exit polls ⁠with 11.3%. A minority government was also an option in the 240-seat parliament, Radev said.

“Bulgaria will make efforts to continue its European path,” he said. “But a strong Bulgaria and strong Europe… needs pragmatism because Europe has fallen victim to its own ​ambition to be a moral leader in a world without rules.”

GERB’s Borissov appeared to concede in a post on ​Facebook, but added a ⁠note of caution: “To win the elections is one thing; to govern is quite another. Elections decide who comes first, but negotiations will decide who governs.”

Bulgaria has developed rapidly since the fall of communism in 1989 and joined the European Union in 2007. Life expectancy has risen sharply, unemployment is the lowest in the EU, and the economy has ⁠greater safeguards ​since joining the euro zone in January. But it lags behind other EU countries in many metrics, ​and graft remains endemic, including in elections, where vote-buying is rife.

The cost of living has become a particular issue since Bulgaria adopted the euro. The previous government fell amid protests against a new ​budget proposing tax increases and higher social security contributions.

FBI Director Kash Patel filed a $250 million defamation lawsuit Monday against The Atlantic magazine and its national-security reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick, escalating a high-profile clash over a Friday article that alleged Patel’s “erratic behavior,” excessive drinking, and unexplained absences have alarmed colleagues and raised national-security concerns.

In the complaint, filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Patel accuses the publication and Fitzpatrick of publishing the story “with actual malice” despite being “expressly warned, hours before publication, that the central allegations were categorically false,” having access to “abundant publicly available information contradicting those allegations,” and ignoring “obvious and fatal defects in their own sourcing,” CNN reports.

The Atlantic article, titled “The FBI Director Is MIA,” relied on more than two dozen anonymous sources – including current and former FBI officials, members of Congress, and hospitality-industry workers – to portray Patel’s leadership as a “management failure” and his personal conduct as a potential vulnerability. It detailed claims of “bouts of excessive drinking” at venues such as the private club Ned’s in Washington, D.C., and the Poodle Room in Las Vegas, rescheduled meetings due to late-night drinking, and incidents in which Patel’s security detail allegedly struggled to wake him and once requested breaching equipment to access a locked room. The piece also suggested Patel is deeply paranoid about being fired and that President Trump has privately expressed displeasure over his behavior, including a viral video of him chugging beer with the U.S. men’s hockey team.⁠

Patel’s attorney, Jesse R. Binnall, sent a detailed pre-publication letter to The Atlantic and Fitzpatrick on April 17, disputing the claims point-by-point and demanding the outlet refrain from publishing. Binnall later posted the letter publicly on X, writing: “They were on notice that the claims were categorically false and defamatory. They published anyway. See you in court.”

This is the letter we sent to The Atlantic and Sarah Fitzpatrick BEFORE they published their hit piece on FBI Director @FBIDirectorKash. They were on notice that the claims were categorically false and defamatory. They published anyway.

See you in court. pic.twitter.com/Ke8cqNh8hY

— Jesse R. Binnall (@jbinnall) April 17, 2026

Patel himself responded defiantly on Fox News Sunday, calling the story “fake news” and promising legal action the next day. “We HAVE to fight back against the fake news,” he said. “If the fake news mafia isn’t hitting you with baseless info, you’re not doing your job!”⁠

🚨 WOW! FBI Director Kash Patel is SUING The Atlantic after they reported he gets drunk all the time and constantly has “unexplained absences”

“You want to attack my character? Come at me. I’LL SEE YOU IN COURT!”

“Absolutely. [The lawsuit] is coming TOMORROW. FOR DEFAMATION.”… pic.twitter.com/7X5PqQlP3p

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 19, 2026

The suit seeks $250 million in damages, a figure Patel’s team described as necessary to hold the outlet accountable for what they call a “sweeping, malicious, and defamatory hit piece.”

Summary

• Trump says ‘highly unlikely’ will extend ceasefire if deal not signed in Pakistan.

• Iran’s military after Sunday’s US seizure of Iran-flagged cargo ship: will “take the necessary action against the US military”

• Vance intends to depart Tuesday to Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join – Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid. Trump warns “nobody’s playing games” & “lots of bombs will go off” if no deal (PBS)

• Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: “the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway.“

*  *  *

NYT: Iranians Making Plans to be in Pakistan 

The NYT now says the Iranians are soon expected in Pakistan, despite that for the past 12-hours they issued denials that they are ready and willing to enter a second round of talks.

“An Iranian delegation is making plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the United States, according to two senior Iranian officials familiar with the plans. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential political and military figure leading the talks,” the publication writes.

Yet, talk about of Tehran is still firm and tough, signaling the two sides are in reality far away from agreeing on anything, particularly the nuclear issue. While Iranian President Pezeshkian has newly stated that “honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue” – it remains there is “historical distrust”. He has stated on X: “they seek Iran’s surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.”

Trump: ‘Highly Unlikely’ He Extends Ceasefire

Lots of contradictory messaging this morning from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad. Trump has said he will note open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is signed (as both sides inside they in effect control the waterway).

Trump has also asserted that it remains ‘highly unlikely’ that he extends the ceasefire with Iran, at a moment Tasnim reports that “Iran’s decision not to participate in the negotiations has not changed until this moment.”

‘Lots of Bombs Will Go Off’ If Ceasefire Ends With No Deal: Trump

President Trump says bombs will go off if the ceasefire expires (set to end by Wed April 22), PBS reports. But he also said he doesn’t know if Iran is doing the next round of talks but says it is fine if Iran is not at the Pakistan talks. So who does Washington, led by VP Vance’s team, plan to talk to… itself? Or it might just plan to keep sending messages to the Pakistanis. The US could also be seeking to ‘demonstrate’ that the Iranians have simply refused negotiations, and so this will ‘justify’ bombs away again. Here are the latest Monday statements from Trump given to PBS:

• If no deal “then lots of bombs start going off.”
• Nuclear weapons will be discussed with Iran at the talks.
• “No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Very simple.”
• “…we’re not negotiating anything other than the fact that they will not have a nuclear weapon”
• On the remarks from Secretary Wright that gas may not go below USD 3 until late-2026 or early-2027, Trump says: “I disagree with him totally. I think it’ll come roaring down if it ends. If we end it, if Iran does what they should do, it will come roaring down.”

His latest Monday morning Truth Social post, which appears very on the defensive:

Fresh Pentagon data indicates the US blockade has thus far directed 27 vessels to turn back.

Contradictory Reports of Vance Travel

So it seems the second round of talks are actually on, after several recent contradictory headlines concerning Tehran’s intent to send a team. As of Monday morning the Iranians have been signaling the cold shoulder, even as Pakistani officials quietly leak that their arrival is expected.

The NY Post freshly reports: “Vice President JD Vance and the US delegation to the peace talks here with Iran are en route to Pakistan and expected to land within hours, President Trump on Monday told The Post — adding that he was willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached.” However, CNN is saying he has not actually departed yet, and may not till Tuesday, as the talks are reportedly being planned for Wednesday.

“We’re supposed to have the talks,” Trump said in an interview when asked whether talks or still happening of if they are falling apart. He added: “So I would assume at this point nobody’s playing games.” According to more:

The president confirmed that a high-level US delegation — including Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner — is already en route to Islamabad for the next round of negotiations.

“They’re heading over now,” Trump said shortly after 9 a.m. EST. “They’ll be there tonight, [Islamabad] time.”

NBC notes that, “Further complicating the picture, different Iranian leaders are sending contradictory messages. The IRGC vowed revenge for the seizing of an Iranian cargo ship yesterday, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize diplomacy.”

Shipping Traffic Halt Latest

Al Jazeera and others have written the strait is at a virtual standstill currently, after the major Sunday incident which saw the US Navy intercept, fire upon, and board an uncooperative ship which was trying to pass the US-imposed blockade. It was an Iranian-flagged ship which was forcibly stopped in the Gulf of Oman, where some dozen US warships have been patrolling.

Just three ships have crossed in the past 12 hours, shipping data indicates. The same publication records that “Oil products tanker Nero, which is under UK sanctions, has left the Gulf and is sailing through the strait, according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and tracking data from the Kpler platform.” And: “Two other ships – a chemical tanker and a liquefied natural gas tanker – have also sailed into the Gulf through the critical waterway separately, the data showed.”

Reuters: Senior Iranian official says positive efforts have been started by Pakistan to end the US blockade and ensure Iran’s participation in talks.

On Monday a spokesman for Iran’s military reiterated a threat to “take the necessary action against the US military” after the Sunday US interdiction. He described that that Iran’s military exercised restraint over the incident, not taking immediate action, in order to protect the ship’s crew, but will act “once it is ensured that the lives of the families and crew of the vessel attacked by the United States are safeguarded.” Apparently the crew’s family members are accompanying them aboard the vessel, the statement suggests.

⚡️ US military releases footage of “seizure of Iranian ship Touska in Strait of Hormuz” pic.twitter.com/d7qk7G5oeC

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2026

Important Xi Jinping Statement on Hormuz

China’s President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

“Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community,” Xi said. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

South China Morning Post observes that it was “the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28.” China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

Second Pakistan Talks Imminent? 

After the Sunday dramatic US seizure of the Iranian-flagged ship, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said the country currently no plans regarding a new round of talks, however, it also said it is reviewing the latest Washington proposal related to a second round of Pakistan-hosted talks. With that, by Monday it reasserted that the transfer of enriched uranium out of the country or into US custody has never been on the table. Tehran is insisting that it won’t be transferred anywhere.

This firm stance is after President dramatically shifted his tone over the weekend from strangely and surprisingly somewhat praising Iran’s leadership (with statements such as the US could work with them and possibly trust them) to once up again ramping up threats, posting “No more Mr. Nice Guy” on social media. 

Currently there are conflicting reports on whether the Iranian side will actually be there for reported possible Tuesday talks. Pakistan officials say the timing of the talks remains fluid. According to the latest via Associated Press Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation to Islamabad, citing two Pakistan officials. The officials reports “cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad.”

Some confused and conflicting signaling, likely purposely so…

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei:

We have no plans for the next round of negotiations. pic.twitter.com/CFb16qt8vM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 20, 2026

The NY Times has declared that JD Vance will try again:

The vice president is scheduled to lead an American delegation back to Islamabad, Pakistan, this week for another round of in-person negotiations with Iran after failing to secure a deal just over a week ago.

Whether the talks even occur seems in dispute. Hours after President Trump announced the trip on Sunday, Iranian state media said that Tehran had not yet agreed to any such meeting. Later, Mr. Trump announced that a Naval destroyer had attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to skirt the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump has been threatening major escalation should there be no negotiated settlement, at a moment the two sides’ position are very distant especially on the nuclear issue.

Zero Sum Positions on Nuclear Issue

The problem, according to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape is the zero sum logic of it all. “In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation,” he wrote over the weekend. “This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power.”

“At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not,” Pape continues. “There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides.”

POTUS is laying out two courses of action—a negotiated settlement, or a major escalation.

There is a third option, and he should take it: recognize there is no way to force a positive outcome and simply leave.

The region is not ours to fix. President Reagan chose this path in… pic.twitter.com/5ovi05FdwE

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) April 19, 2026

And more from the analysis: “The same zero-sum logic applies—more visibly and more immediately—to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz functioned as a global commons, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That assumption is now broken. Iran has demonstrated that it can shift from disruption to conditional control, allowing passage under its terms while restricting or denying access when it chooses. The United States, in response, is attempting to preserve open navigation through blockade and interdiction. But these positions cannot be reconciled.”

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

US aluminium giant Alcoa is reportedly nearing a deal to offload its long-idle Massena East smelter in upstate New York to Bitcoin mining firm New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).

The company is in advanced discussions and expects the transaction to close “in the middle part of this year,” CEO Bill Oplinger told Bloomberg on Friday. The site, located along the St. Lawrence River, has been inactive since 2014 after Alcoa shut it down amid rising energy costs and global competition.

Built for 24/7 heavy industrial operations, aluminum smelters come with pre-existing substations, transmission lines and high-capacity grid connections. That makes them attractive targets for Bitcoin miners and data center operators, who often spend years securing similar infrastructure approvals from scratch.

Massena East also benefits from hydropower supplied by the New York Power Authority, a key draw for energy-intensive computing firms seeking low-cost and lower-carbon power sources.

US smelters reborn as crypto, AI data centers

The potential sale comes amid a broader trend across the US, where retired industrial sites are being repurposed for digital infrastructure. Earlier this year, Century Aluminum sold its Hawesville smelter in Kentucky to TeraWulf for $200 million, with plans to convert it into a high-performance computing and AI facility rather than traditional industrial use.

TeraWulf shares are up 80% YTD. Source Bloomberg 

Meanwhile, NYDIG has been growing its footprint in Bitcoin mining infrastructure. The firm, owned by Stone Ridge, already holds a stake in Coinmint, which operates mining hardware at the same campus under a long-term lease.

Last year, Crusoe Energy also agreed to sell its Bitcoin mining business, including its digital flare mitigation operations, to NYDIG.

Bitcoin miners pivot to AI

NYDIG’s renewed push into Bitcoin mining comes as other miners are increasingly pivoting toward AI and cloud computing as shrinking margins in mining push them to diversify revenue streams.

Earleir this year, MARA Holdings acquired a 64% stake in French infrastructure company Exaion, giving the company a foothold in AI services. Other miners, including Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf and Iren, are also repurposing mining facilities into data centers, while some, such as CoreWeave, have fully transitioned into AI-focused infrastructure.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing for a showdown with the senior official he fired over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, as calls for the prime minister to resign grow.

The controversy stems from Starmer’s decision to appoint veteran Labour politician Peter Mandelson (Lord Mandelson) as Britain’s ambassador to the United States in late 2024/early 2025, despite Mandelson’s well-known past associations with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The scandal has escalated dramatically in recent days due to revelations about security vetting failures, leading to intense political pressure on Starmer.

As a reminder, Mandelson, a senior New Labour figure and former EU Trade Commissioner, has long faced questions over his friendship with sex-offender Epstein, and these ties were public knowledge when Starmer nominated him for the prestigious Washington role.

Starmer has said he was aware of the basic relationship but claims Mandelson “lied repeatedly” about the extent of contact.

He later sacked Mandelson in September 2025 after further details emerged about the depth of those links, including allegations of sharing sensitive information.

Starmer apologized to Epstein victims and accused Mandelson of betraying the country.

The appointment was always controversial, with critics questioning the judgment in placing someone with such baggage in a top diplomatic post involving close US-UK relations.

However, things have heated up recently after new reports emerged last week revealing that Mandelson failed his security vetting for the ambassador role.

Security officials recommended against clearance due to reputational and other risks, but Foreign Office officials overruled this and approved him anyway.

Starmer is facing widespread calls to resign from opposition parties and some within Labour circles.

“He is taking the public for fools,” Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, said on Friday. “We know that No 10 was told that Mandelson had failed his vetting because journalists told them in September last year. This leaves us with two possibilities: either the Prime Minister is lying or he is so incompetent that he is unfit to run the country.”

“Either way his position is untenable,” she said.

Ed Davey, who heads the Liberal Democrats, also said on Sky News that Starmer had shown “catastrophic misjudgment and that’s why we have said he needs to go.”

Allies are standing by Starmer.. for now…

“Peter Mandelson shouldn’t have been appointed the ambassador,” Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander said on Sky News on Monday.

“The prime minister, never mind myself, accepts that was a mistake.”

“I have absolutely no doubt at all, knowing the PM as I do, that had he known that Peter Mandelson had not passed the vetting, he would never, ever have appointed him ambassador,” Lammy, who was foreign secretary at the time, told the Guardian.

Starmer is due to make a statement and face grilling from MPs in the House of Commons today (Monday), which many are calling his “judgment day.”

Starmer has repeatedly told Parliament and the public that “full due process” and proper vetting were followed.

He now claims he was not informed that Mandelson had failed the checks – describing it as “staggering” and “unforgivable.”

He says he only learned this in the past few days and is “absolutely furious.”

Within hours of the story breaking, Starmer reportedly forced out the top Foreign Office civil servant, Sir Olly Robbins, who is expected to appear before a parliamentary committee soon (potentially clashing with the government’s narrative).

Allies of Robbins have told British media including the Sunday Times that the former civil servant was being scapegoated.

Officials speaking to Bloomberg argue that Starmer had signaled privately that he was relaxed about Mandelson’s previously known links to Epstein, Russia and China, leading Robbins and his team to feel they were doing the prime minister’s bidding by disregarding concerns and approving his clearance regardless.

The outcry over the Mandelson appointment is leaving Starmer in a vulnerable position.

Losses at the May 7 elections could open the premier up to leadership challenges, with the Sun reporting that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner held a “secret meeting” on Friday

China’s President Xi Jinping on Monday demanded the uninterrupted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, state news agency Xinhua reports. He urged the normalization of shipping traffic after about 50 days of disruption which obviously and significantly impacts Chinese oil imports.

“Normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be maintained, this is in the shared interests of regional countries and the international community,” Xi said, in the statement also carried by AFP. He called for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire and insisted disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means.

He added that China will deepen strategic mutual trust with Saudi Arabia and expand practical cooperation. 

South China Morning Post observes that it was “the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway, which has been repeatedly blockaded since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28.”

China imported 5.86 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down 10% from February, according to customs data released Monday.

As for where things stand on the negotiations front, Iran hesitated over sending diplomats to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks after the US maintained a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and seized an Iranian vessel, after apparently firing on it, undermining prospects for a breakthrough to end the war. Initially it appeared to shut the door on second talks, however per Associated Press Monday morning:

Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation for a second round of talks in Islamabad this week, two Pakistani officials said Monday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media, said there is cautious optimism that delegations from both Iran and the United States could travel to Islamabad.

The US side would reportedly once again be headed up by Vice President JD Vance – who during the first round cut out early after a serious impasse was reached on the nuclear issue.

The tumultuous weekend events followed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi having posted on X on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open”. By Sunday morning, Bloomberg ship tracking data had showed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was largely ground to a halt. Also, the prior 24 hours had seen multiple incidents of tankers making U-turns, and added to all this a senior Iranian official renewed threats to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

According to a quick review of some other developments Monday morning and per emerging market data, China will import a record volume of US ethane this month as petrochemical producers switch feedstocks after the Middle East war disrupted critical supplies.

Recall that by mid-March Trump was actually asking for China’s help to get the blocked Strait of Hormuz reopened…

Trump said China should help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, arguing Beijing depends heavily on oil flowing through the waterway.

“I think China should help too because China gets 90 per cent of its oil from the Straits.”

He warned he wants Beijing’s position before his planned… pic.twitter.com/ZbtxAppcqO

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

And in the broader region, Singapore is securing additional liquefied natural gas from outside the Middle East as the conflict in Iran constrains regional supply, according to a government body. India authorized more Russian insurers to cover vessels calling at its ports and extended permits for others as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts energy shipments from the Persian Gulf.

The International Energy Agency has meanwhile said that global power consumption rose 3% last year, driven in part by rapid demand growth from electric vehicles and data centers, according to the International Energy Agency.

Psychedelic drug stocks soared in premarket trading in New York after President Trump signed an executive order aimed at accelerating research and expanding access to therapies used for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

“The executive order I’m signing, we’re actually signing the executive order today, is really a moment,” Trump said at the signing event. “These treatments are currently in the advanced stages of clinical trials to ensure that they’re both safe and effective for the American patients.”

President Trump signed an executive order directing the FDA to expedite review of psychedelic drugs like ibogaine, which advocates say could treat PTSD and other mental health conditions https://t.co/vBk8EoguVF pic.twitter.com/AEW6V2merr

— Reuters (@Reuters) April 18, 2026

Trump’s order, signed on Saturday, directs the FDA to prioritize review of certain breakthrough-designated psychedelic therapies, expands potential access under the Right to Try Act, commits at least $50 million in federal funding for state partnerships, and encourages closer coordination among HHS, the FDA, the VA, and private-sector researchers.

“In many cases, these experimental treatments have shown life-changing potential for those suffering from severe mental illness and depression, including our cherished veterans,” Trump said, citing the veteran suicide rate.

The order also instructs the Justice Department to move quickly on rescheduling any psychedelic-based product that successfully completes Phase 3 trials and receives FDA approval.

Trump continued, “And the nice part is we’re actually doing this early, but it has been going on. Research has been going on for quite some time. But, you know, usually with things like this, nothing ever happens, no matter how the research ends up, but we’re changing that. This order will clear away unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles, improve data sharing among the FDA and the Department of Veterans Affairs, and facilitate fast rescheduling of any psychedelic drugs that become FDA-approved.” 

Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness🇺🇸@JoeRogan: “For 56 years we’ve lived under those terrible conditions. We’re free of that now. Thanks to all these people… and thanks to President Trump.” https://t.co/j1tkGACSM7 pic.twitter.com/aQmZl3z4PG

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 18, 2026

Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson told clients that Trump’s weekend executive order “represents a structural inflection point for the U.S. psychedelics sector by facilitating research, regulatory timelines, and patient access, which reinforces our positive outlook.”

In response, psychedelic drug stocks in premarket trading, such as Compass Pathways jumped 24.5%, Atai Beckley gained 28%, Definium Therapeutics rose 13%, and GH Research added 17%. 

“The path to commercialization could be even faster now,” RBC analyst Brian Abrahams told clients, adding that the executive order “accelerates psychedelics as the key next wave of mental health treatments.”

Abrahams’ research covers Definium Therapeutics, Compass Pathways, and GH Research. He said those stocks are likely to benefit the most.

Jefferies analyst Andrew pointed out that with the federal government increasingly aligned on psychedelics, “investor mindshare should rise meaningfully ahead of potential approvals in 2027-30.”

This marks another big win for the psychedelic space.