Another day, another activist judge deciding they’re the president… 

On Friday, chief Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia has blocked subpoenas issued by the Trump Justice Department to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed Board of Governor

Boasberg claims that the subpoenas were served for an improper, pretextual purpose, and that “a mountain of evidence suggests that the Government served these subpoenas on the Board to pressure its Chair into voting for lower interest rates or resigning,” and that the government produced “essentially zero evidence to suspect Chair Powell of a crime; indeed, its justifications are so thin and unsubstantiated that the Court can only conclude that they are pretextual.” The order explicitly quashes the subpoenas.

The subpoenas were issued as part of a DOJ probe into the Fed’s management of its headquarters renovation project – an investigation that Powell and others have called a pretext. Powell himself issued an unprecedented video statement in January 2026 saying the threatened indictment stemmed from his Senate testimony and the Fed’s independent interest-rate decisions rather than any actual crime. He described it as part of broader administration pressure to politicize monetary policy.

White House officials have criticized the Federal Reserve over its handling of renovations to two historic buildings in Washington: the Marriner S. Eccles Building, the Fed’s headquarters, and the 1951 Constitution Avenue building.

Renovation costs for the Fed’s headquarters have risen to $2.5 billion, $700 million over budget, according to Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought.

Last July, Trump indicated that Powell’s handling of the renovation project could be grounds to fire him, saying, “I think it sort of is.”

“When you spend $2.5 billion on, really, a renovation, I think it’s really disgraceful,” he said.

The Fed responded to the criticism, stating on its website that major systems in both buildings, whose construction dates back to the 1930s, are “obsolete and in need of replacement for health and safety reasons.”

The decision has drawn praise from those defending Fed independence and sharp criticism from Trump allies who view it as judicial interference. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has already said he will block confirmation of Trump’s nominee to replace Powell until the probe is dropped.

Warsh’s nomination by President Donald Trump is bogged down because of an effective blockade imposed by Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who sits on the Banking Committee. That panel is the first hurdle for would-be Fed board members such as Warsh.

Tillis has vowed to vote against passing along Warsh’s nomination or any other Fed nominee to the full Senate for a confirmation vote as long as a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains in progress.

Now Tillis says that if the Trump admin appeals Boasberg’s ruling, Warsh’s confirmation will be delayed even further. Moments later, DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro said that the decision will be appealed. 

Boasberg’s Record of Interventions in Trump-Related Matters

This just the latest instance where Judge Boasberg has stepped in to block, quash, or otherwise limit actions or probes tied to Trump – including:

• 2017 — Trump Tax Returns FOIA Lawsuit: Boasberg dismissed a Freedom of Information Act suit seeking President Trump’s personal tax returns, ruling they remained confidential without Trump’s consent or congressional approval. This effectively quashed public access efforts.
• 2022–2023 — January 6 Committee & Jack Smith Grand Jury Subpoenas: As chief judge overseeing the D.C. grand jury in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s post-2020 election conduct, Boasberg denied a Trump spokesperson’s attempt to claw back financial records subpoenaed by the Jan. 6 Committee. He also ordered former Vice President Mike Pence to testify before the grand jury (partially rejecting executive-privilege claims) and approved nondisclosure orders on phone records of Republican senators — actions Trump allies strongly opposed as advancing the probe against him.
• March 2025–2026 — J.G.G. v. Trump (Alien Enemies Act Deportations): In the highest-profile clash, Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting the Trump administration’s use of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to summarily deport Venezuelan migrants (alleged gang members) to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador. He ordered in-flight deportation planes to turn around. When flights proceeded anyway, he found “probable cause” of criminal contempt due to the administration’s “willful disregard” of his order and initiated contempt proceedings (repeatedly revived despite appeals-court stays). He later ordered the government to facilitate the return of over 100 deported individuals to allow due-process hearings. Appeals courts (often Trump-appointed panels) repeatedly limited or paused his contempt efforts, but the core blocking and remedial orders stood as major interventions against the policy.
• 2025 — American Oversight v. Hegseth (“Signalgate”): Assigned to the lawsuit alleging Trump administration officials (including Cabinet members) violated record-keeping laws by using the Signal app for sensitive military discussions, Boasberg issued preservation orders and described aspects of the conduct as concerning, while stopping short of ordering full message recovery.

Bukele was right…

Bukele: “We had to remove corrupt judges and corrupt attorneys and prosecutors.”

Activist judges must be impeached and removed. pic.twitter.com/pg5NdQwjJe

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) February 26, 2025

Mark Zuckerberg bet the farm on AI supremacy, and this year’s crop is infested with bugs.

According to a new report, Meta has quietly pushed back the launch of its next-generation foundational AI model, internally code-named Avocado, from this month until at least May. The reason? Internal tests showed it underperforming on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and writing – trailing rivals like Google’s Gemini 3.0, even as it beat Meta’s own prior efforts and older Google models.

The model, code-named Avocado, outperformed Meta’s previous A.I. model and did better than Google’s Gemini 2.5 model from March, two of the people said. But it has not performed as strongly as Gemini 3.0 from November, they said. -NYT

This delay arrives after Zuckerberg has poured unprecedented resources into the race. Meta is guiding for $115–135 billion in capital expenditures this year alone – nearly double last year’s spend – with the overwhelming majority earmarked for AI data centers, compute clusters, and infrastructure. The company has also signaled longer-term commitments approaching $600 billion in U.S. investments, plus a $14.3 billion stake in Scale AI that installed its CEO, Alexandr Wang, as Meta’s chief AI officer. The new “TBD Lab” was tasked with fruit-themed breakthroughs: Avocado as the core model, Mango for images/video, and a bigger “Watermelon” on the horizon, the NY Times reports.

Zuckerberg once promised these efforts would “push the frontier” toward superintelligence. Now, insiders say Meta is even weighing temporarily licensing superior models from competitors like Google to keep its products competitive. 

As a result, Meta has delayed Avocado’s release to at least May from this month, the people said. They added that the leaders of Meta’s A.I. division had instead discussed temporarily licensing Gemini to power the company’s A.I. products, though no decisions have been reached.

Not great… 

Musk Reboots xAI…

While Zuck licks his wounds, Elon Musk is reorganizing xAI – ordering another round of job cuts at the two-year-old startup over poor performance of its coding product, FT reports. Grok’s coding capabilities have lagged behind rivals like Anthropic’s Claude Code and OpenAI’s Codex – however Musk on Thursday revealed the company’s ‘Macrohard’ or “Digital Optimus” which can ‘basically automate entire companies’ by observing and intelligently simulating their functions. 

Musk has brought in managers from SpaceX and Tesla as “fixers” to audit employee work, focusing on data quality issues in model training and firing those deemed inadequate. This has forced out several more co-founders – including Zihang Dai (a senior technical leader who admitted xAI was behind on coding) and Guodong Zhang (who ran pre-training for Grok models and was blamed for coding shortfalls, departing Thursday). Only two of the original 11 co-founders remain: Manuel Kroiss (“Makro”) and Ross Nordeen. Previous exits include Greg Yang, Tony Wu, Jimmy Ba, and even Toby Pohlen, who briefly led the “Macrohard” digital agents project before leaving after 16 days.

Posting on X Thursday, Musk said “Same thing happened with Tesla.”

xAI was not built right first time around, so is being rebuilt from the foundations up.

Same thing happened with Tesla.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 12, 2026

The upheaval follows the $1.25 billion merger of SpaceX with xAI, amid pressure to meet ambitious goals – including space-based AI data centers, Moon factories, and Mars colonization – and a potential blockbuster stock market listing by June. According to FT, xAI staff have been wilting under “extremely hardcore” demands, though a company memo denied mass layoffs. 

Yet Musk is aggressively course-correcting: redeploying Tesla’s Ashok Elluswamy to reboot Macrohard and develop the “digital Optimus” – blending real-world AI with Grok models. He’s also been reviewing past interview rejections, apologizing publicly – “Many talented people over the past few years were declined an offer or even an interview at xAI. My apologies” – and reaching back out to promising candidates. This week, xAI poached Andrew Milich and Jason Ginsberg from the hot AI coding app Cursor to supercharge “Grok Code Fast.”

Many talented people over the past few years were declined an offer or even an interview @xAI. My apologies.@BarisAkis and I are going through the company interview history and reaching back out to promising candidates. https://t.co/tvhipa1lu1

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 13, 2026

Meanwhile, the massive Memphis supercluster – already with over 200,000 GPUs and expanding toward 1 million – benefits from X data integration, giving xAI unique advantages in scale and real-time training.

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Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated on state television that his government has entered talks with the Trump administration, aimed at “finding solutions through dialogue” to longstanding bilateral differences between the two neighboring countries. This admission comes as the Caribbean island faces crude oil and diesel stockpiles running dry by the end of the month, after Trump’s multi-month crude shipment blockade sharply tightened pressure on the communist regime in Havana.

In a speech broadcast on Cuban state TV, Díaz-Canel said that discussions with the Trump administration were intended to “determine the willingness of both sides to take concrete actions for the benefit of the people of both countries.”

“Agendas are being built, negotiations are underway, conversations are taking place and agreements are being reached, things from which we are still far away because we are in the initial phases,” Díaz-Canel said.

🇺🇸🇨🇺 El momento histórico en donde el dictador de Cuba, Miguel Díaz Canel, anuncia en cadena nacional que han cedido a la presión y están oficialmente en negociaciones con los Estados Unidos.

El régimen cubano completamente rendido, al borde de la muerte.pic.twitter.com/lDAjV4cwh9

— Agustín Antonetti (@agusantonetti) March 13, 2026

This is the first time the communist regime in Havana has publicly acknowledged that talks between the US and Cuba exist, despite leaked US media reports.

It appears that Trump’s oil blockade of the Caribbean island is working as part of the administration’s broader regime-change campaign across the Western Hemisphere, beginning with the removal of socialist leader Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela.

The Trump administration has launched a political campaign to rid the West of socialists and communists. The balance of power in the Americas has been shifting from left-wing to right-wing in the Trump era.

Díaz-Canel warned in a separate press conference with state media that the island has not received fuel shipments in three months. He said crude oil and diesel stockpiles are being depleted rapidly, resulting in instability across the national power grid.

“Cuban officials recently held talks with representatives of the United States government to seek, through dialogue, a possible solution to the bilateral differences between our nations. These exchanges have been facilitated by international actors,” Diaz-Canel said. 

Late last week, at the White House, President Trump said a deal with Havana was nearing. “As we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we also look forward to the great change that will soon come to Cuba,” Trump stated.

“Cuba is at the end of the line,” the president added. “They have no money. They have no oil.”

On Thursday, Havana announced it planned to release 51 prisoners. This comes about two weeks after Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez met with Pope Leo at the Vatican.

Regime change in Venezuela and Cuba appears less complicated than Trump’s Operation Epic Fury in Iran.

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Authored by Nicolas Hulscher, MPH,

Public opinion is shifting… and they want action.

A new Rasmussen survey of 1,158 likely U.S. voters – conducted September 7–9, 2025, with a ±3% margin of error – reveals that 56% believe side effects from the COVID-19 shots have likely caused a significant number of unexplained deaths. Nearly one-third (32%) say it’s very likely. Only 35% still dismiss the idea.

This shows that what was once called a “conspiracy theory” has become the mainstream view. The majority of Americans now believe vaccine harms are real and widespread.

Support for HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reflects this shift. Half of voters (50%) say government health officials deserve criticism for their handling of the pandemic, while 42% even think CDC employees should be fired for their role in misleading the public.

Among those who strongly believe the shots caused deaths, over 70% want CDC firings.

Partisan divides remain—70% of Republicans, 46% of Democrats, and 54% of independents think the vaccines likely caused deaths—but the skepticism crosses party lines and racial groups.

In fact, black (64%) and Hispanic (57%) voters are even more likely than white voters (54%) to suspect deadly vaccine effects.

According to the survey, RFK Jr. is viewed favorably by 45% of voters, with strong support among Republicans and independents, even as Democrats turn sharply against him.

The takeaway: A credible, nationally representative poll now confirms most Americans believe COVID-19 shots have killed many people, and they want accountability from the CDC and government health leaders.

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Justice and Transportation Departments filed a lawsuit against California on Thursday to stop what they say is an illegal electric vehicle (EV) requirement, alleging that the state is mandating fuel economy standards that federal law places in the exclusive domain of the federal government.

Attorney General Pamela Bondi and Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced the lawsuit, which was filed for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The suit takes aim at regulations formulated by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which mandates automakers comply with stricter mileage standards.

CARB has implemented stringent rules, such as the Advanced Clean Cars II act approved in August 2022, which requires that 35 percent of new vehicles sold in the state must be zero-emission starting in 2026, gradually increasing to a complete ban on new gas-powered car sales by 2035.

The Clean Air Act bans states from establishing their own tailpipe emission standards for trucks and cars. However, California can get an exemption to the ban if it obtains a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Following the waiver approval, California can implement its own emissions rules. The waiver would allow state officials to enforce tougher standards than national ones, influencing automakers nationwide due to the state’s large market share.

However, federal law bars states from implementing their own fuel economy laws, officials argue in the suit.

California’s waivers were revoked in June 2025 when Congress passed resolutions under the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which President Donald Trump signed into law, preventing California from implementing the stricter standards. California and 10 other states filed a lawsuit, arguing that the CRA does not apply to EPA waiver decisions as they are not “rules.” The case is currently ongoing.

The Golden State’s new laws seek to require manufacturers to redesign the vehicles they sell across the country, increasing prices and curtailing consumer choices, officials state.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta have not returned a request for comment.

Newsom previously accused Trump of “destroying” the state’s clean air and “America’s global competitiveness.” He also said that without the high standards, the low air quality in the state would cost California taxpayers an estimated $45 billion in health care costs.

The federal government’s legal action aligns with Trump’s “Freedom Means Affordable Cars” program, which targets the remaking of corporate average fuel economy standards and could save American families about $1,000 on the average new vehicle and also trim $109 billion in costs over five years, according to the Department of Transportation.

“Oppressive, expensive electric vehicle mandates drive up costs for American consumers and violate federal law,” Bondi said in a statement. “California is using unlawful policies from the last administration to create exorbitant costs for our citizens—this Department of Justice is proud to stand with President Trump and Secretary Duffy to bring litigation that will make life more affordable for American consumers.”

Duffy said the lawsuit is part and parcel of initiatives to halt EV policies.

“I was proud to stand alongside President Trump to unveil our plan to eliminate the Biden-Buttigieg EV mandate and allow auto manufacturers to produce cars American families actually want to buy at a more affordable price. But Gavin Newsom is determined to continue pushing Democrats’ radical EV fantasy—even if doing so is illegal,” Duffy said in a statement.

The departments filed the suit in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California against the California Air Resources Board and its executive officer. The case claims the Energy Policy and Conservation Act overrides state rules, which gives NHTSA sole authority over fuel economy.

“This lawsuit continues [the Environment and Natural Resources Division’s] war on regulatory overreach by California that is set on undermining the national market for motor vehicles through unlawful state policies,” Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Adam Gustafson of the Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division said in a statement.

“The state vehicle standards we are challenging today are preempted by federal law, just like the standards that were blocked by a court in our challenge to California’s so-called Clean Truck Partnership.”

NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison also criticized EV policies.

“This litigation will help automakers design and produce cars and trucks to meet one federal fuel economy regulation. It was a mistake by Presidents Obama and Biden to enable California to set its own backdoor fuel economy policies, which have now spiraled into a costly patchwork quilt of individual state fuel economy requirements. This litigation will correct that misstep,” Morrison said.

An armed man who allegedly rammed his truck into a Michigan synagogue on March 12 has been identified as a naturalized United States citizen born in Lebanon, according to federal officials.

Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, 41, was fatally shot by security officers after he drove through a hallway at Temple Israel in West Bloomfield Township near Detroit in a vehicle that then caught fire, authorities said.

The Epoch Times’ Rachel Roberts reports that none of the synagogue’s staff, teachers, or the 140 children at its daycare center were injured, according to Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. He said the suspect was found dead inside his vehicle.

A security officer was hit by the vehicle and knocked unconscious, but did not suffer life-threatening injuries, Bouchard said. About 30 law enforcement officers were treated for smoke inhalation.

West Bloomfield Police Chief Dale Young said Temple security officers “engaged the individual and neutralized the threat.”

Ghazali came to the United States in 2011 on an immediate relative visa as the spouse of a U.S. citizen and was granted citizenship in 2016, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

The FBI is leading the investigation. Jennifer Runyan, the special agent in charge of the bureau’s Detroit office, described the incident as a “targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.”

Rabbi Arianna Gordon from Temple Israel thanked the synagogue’s security team, police officers, and teachers for getting the children out safely, calling them the “true rock stars of the day.”

Synagogues around the world have increased security since the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on Feb. 28.

Police respond to the scene of a shooting and vehicle attack near Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Mich., on March 12, 2026. Jacob Hamilton/Ann Arbor News via AP

Over the weekend, two people were arrested following an attack in which improvised explosive devices were thrown during a counterprotest of an anti-Islamist group’s protest in New York City. The New York Police Department said that two devices outside Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s residence could have injured or killed someone and that the suspects were inspired by the ISIS terrorist group.

‘Terrible Thing’

U.S. President Donald Trump said the Michigan attack was a “terrible thing,” while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said it was “heartbreaking.”

“I want to send our love to the Michigan Jewish community and all of the people in the Detroit area,” Trump said on March 12.

Jewish Federation of Detroit CEO Steven Ingber said on March 12 that his organization was trained and prepared for such an attack.

“I’d love to say that I’m shocked, that I’m surprised, but I’m not,” he told reporters.

Law enforcement responds to a call at Temple Israel synagogue in West Bloomfield Township, Mich., on March 12, 2026. Corey Williams/AP Photo

The majority of Detroit-area Jewish residents live in Oakland County, Michigan’s second-largest county, with roughly 1.3 million residents. Temple Israel has more than 12,000 members, according to its website, and describes itself as “the nation’s largest Reform synagogue.”

Minutes after the attack, CNN’s Juliette Kayyem floated the idea that President Trump’s military actions against Iran triggered the violence.

WATCH: CNN’s Juliette Kayyem seems to blame President Trump waging war on Iran for inciting violence against Jews, including now at a synagogue in Michigan, AND warns of “attacks against Iranian Americans”…

“[The sheriff] said specifically in the last two weeks, he has been in… pic.twitter.com/QgrnviU4AO

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) March 12, 2026

She added, “one of them is going to be incitement, radicalization, in particular, as Islamic terrorist groups are utilizing the war like ISIS to go online and to lure people to violence … One, of course, what we’ve seen today attacks against the Jewish community and then, of course, attacks against Iranian Americans.”

“And so all of that is part of this horrible stew of terrorism and incitement that we live in now in a world online and in a world where violence is too prevalent. And so once again, the fact that the sheriff said two weeks, that’s not a coincidental two weeks,” Kayyem further blathered.

This was the second attack at a place of worship in Michigan within the past year. Last September, a former Marine, Thomas Jacob Sanford, allegedly shot four people dead at a church north of Detroit and set it on fire.

Authored by Vince Quill via CoinTelegraph.com,

The United States Senate voted on Thursday to include an amendment in the 21st Century Road to Housing Act that would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

The CBDC prohibition will remain in effect until Dec. 31, 2030, according to the amendment in the bill. The legislation, which passed 89-10, stated:

“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or a Federal Reserve Bank may not issue or create a central bank digital currency or any digital asset that is substantially similar to a central bank digital currency, directly or indirectly through a financial institution or other intermediary.”

The 21st Century Road to Housing Act, which includes the CBDC ban amendment. Source: US Senate

However, the bill does not prohibit any dollar-denominated digital currency that is “open, permissionless, and private,” such as stablecoins.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Donald Trump have presented dollar-pegged stablecoins as a way to extend US dollar hegemony, while Trump and other Republican lawmakers have taken a hardline stance against CBDCs.

Lawmakers slam CBDCs as authoritarian surveillance technology

More than 30 US lawmakers signed a letter on March 6, urging the Senate to pass a permanent CBDC ban, rather than a temporary moratorium.

“A CBDC would give unelected bureaucrats unprecedented power over Americans’ finances and threaten basic economic freedom,” Representative Ralph Norman, one of the signatories of the letter, said.

A letter signed by 31 US lawmakers urging a permanent ban on CBDCs. Source: Representative Ralph Norman

Representative Warren Davidson, a long-time critic of CBDCs, has also criticized regulated dollar-pegged stablecoins as having the same surveillance capabilities as CBDCs.

Davidson also warned that regulations under the Guiding and Empowering Nation’s Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act create an avenue to “control” and “coerce” the US population through financial surveillance techniques and programmable money.

Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio also recently warned that CBDCs would expand the government’s control over people’s finances. 

“There will be no privacy, and it’s a very effective controlling mechanism by the government,” Dalio said in an interview with independent journalist Tucker Carlson.

CBDCs likely won’t be yield-bearing, meaning they do not offer inflation protection and can be automatically taxed or frozen by the government, he added.

By Ben Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

Mine, Yours

Major US, European and Asian equity indices all closed in the red yesterday as Brent crude prices again breached the $100/bbl level. Ten year sovereign yields were sharply higher for most countries (Sweden being an exception), with UK Gilts conspicuous for posting an 8.7bps increase. Short end yields rose even faster as markets priced in higher policy rate paths.

Canadian two year yields were up 9.8bps and in New Zealand yields rose 10.1bps. Canada now has 41bps worth of policy rate hikes priced into the forward curve for this year and New Zealand has 77bps priced. Prior to the outbreak of war, the market was still pricing cuts in Canada and it was still seen as uncertain that the RBNZ would be raising rates at all in 2026. Market bets on Fed rate cuts this year are evaporating fast.

Market optimism following Donald Trump’s comment earlier this week that the war is “very complete” and news that the G7 will coordinate on the release of 400mn barrels from strategic reserves appears to have been short-lived. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei (the new one) has issued his first public statement, in which he echoed previous IRGC vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

There was a bit of a ‘Weekend at Bernie’s’ vibe about this as Khamenei himself did not appear on camera. Rumors that he was injured – perhaps severely – in the opening strikes of the war are now circulating alongside suggestions that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are now running the country and that Khamenei is being used as a convenient figurehead to give the impression of continuity under external pressure.

Despite Khamenei’s vow to keep the Strait closed market pricing is still signalling optimism that the war will be relatively short – although this optimism waned somewhat over the last 24 hours. Prediction markets have a ceasefire before month end as a 21% probability (down 5pts since yesterday), before April 30th as a 45% probability (-2pts since yesterday) and before June 30th as a 61% probability (unchanged).

The Brent crude forward curve remains heavily backwardated, with prices converging back to $75/bbl by mid next year. There has been some speculation in recent days that the US government could play a bit of “mine, yours” in oil derivatives in an attempt to reduce energy prices. Some point to the wild gyrations in crude prices on Monday to suggest that this might have already happened, while others have nod towards a hastily-deleted X post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright claiming that the US navy had escorted an oil tanker through Hormuz as an indication of funny business going on in paper oil markets.

Whatever the case, the FT is today reporting comments from CME Chief Executive Terry Duffy that government intervention in oil derivatives would be a “biblical disaster”. Crypto bros might counsel newly-minted oil traders on the virtues of physical custody, while our own Michael Every has drawn parallels to how pricing in the former Soviet Union worked: “the price of bread is only three roubles, comrade. There is simply none available.”

Not one to be deterred, Secretary Wright said overnight that naval escorts of tankers through the Strait could begin by the end of the month. One might have thought that the (largely unsuccessful) experience of Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea would serve as a cautionary example that naval escorts could prove ineffective in restarting shipping, but the reaction to Wright’s deleted X post suggests that the market would see this as progress. Nevertheless, the end-of-month timeline implies that prospects of de-escalation in the short term are remote.

The situation in the Strait itself remains troubling. Three commercial ships have been struck over the last two days, with the IRGC saying that “American aggressors and their allies have no right of passage.” The FT reports that ships stuck on the wrong side of Hormuz are ‘Sitting Ducks’ and comments earlier this week from US officials that Iran had begun laying marine mines also complicate the picture for any near-term resumption in shipping.

News emerged yesterday that India and Bangladesh-bound cargoes have been granted permission to transit, and China-bound cargoes have been moving for days. The fact that some shipping is being allowed seemingly confirms that mine laying operations remain limited in scope, but that does not mean that Iran cannot escalate if it chooses to. CNN reports that Iran still has 80-90% of its mine-laying fleet and retains the capability to lay ‘hundreds’ of mines, so the IRGC could conceivably play a bit of “mine, yours” with world energy markets for months.

If Iran allows China and India oil through the Strait, that’s more than half of normal oil traffic already (7mmb/d). Throw in the Saudi East-West pipeline for redirection (another 7mb/d) and the blockade suddenly shrinks a lot pic.twitter.com/64xoGJpiHG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 13, 2026

As it stands. the IRGC is now effectively playing Little John with the Strait by insisting that anyone attempting transit must have Iranian permission. The world’s most important hydrocarbon chokepoint has – for now, at least – become an Iranian toll road. Is this acceptable to the United States, or broader Western civilization? Almost certainly not. That makes a Trump TACO all the more improbable, even if it were actually possible without catastrophic loss of US prestige.

So, tanker traffic through the Strait remains at a virtual standstill. Khamenei said in his statement that Tehran believes in “friendship” with Gulf neighbours, but that American bases in Gulf states will continue to be targeted. The message to GCC states is not subtle: break from the US, or suffer the economic and military consequences of continued association.

Of course, while the Iran war continues to dominate all of the headlines, other issues are bubbling away in the world economy. Problems in private credit markets remain a point of risk, perhaps even more so now that swings in commodity and equity markets are precipitating margin calls that need to be funded somehow. A number of funds have placed limits on redemptions, others have sought injections of new capital, and shares in Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR have come under pressure. Rising bond yields and widening credit spreads don’t help, and Bloomberg has noted that financials are the worst performing sector of the S&P500 over the last week.

Many portfolios have incorporated private credit exposures in recent years, to the extend that “the golden age of private credit” became a somewhat notorious meme in markets. Some investors have undoubtedly seen their portfolios bolstered as a result of incorporating these exposures, but others may now be hoping that private credit doesn’t ‘mine, theirs’.

Update(1140ET): Italy denies talks with Iran, but still nothing official on a public level from government ministers:

No negotiations are under way with Iran to guarantee safe passage through the Hormuz Strait for Italian ships or oil tankers, an Italian Foreign Ministry source has told Reuters, denying a report in The Financial Times.

“In their diplomatic contacts, Italian leaders want to favour the conditions for a general military de-escalation, but there is no under-the-table negotiation aimed at preserving only some merchant ships at the expense of others,” the source said.

* * *

Amid very confused and mixed messaging coming from Washington over the status and future fate of Hormuz oil transit, the EU is trying its hand at a solution.

France ⁠and ⁠Italy have ​opened ‘tentative’ talks ‌with Iran ‌seeking ⁠to ⁠negotiate a deal to ​guarantee safe ​passage for their tankers ⁠through vital strait which remains a crucial chokepoint for stalled global crude transit, the ​Financial ⁠Times reports Friday, citing people briefed on ⁠the efforts.

This comes as US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a Friday morning Pentagon briefing there is “no clear evidence that Iran has laid mines” in the Strait. This contradicts an avalanche of reporting from earlier this week which said at least a dozen mines were laid.

The two key overnight and morning headlines which have most impacted oil markets remain confirmed India-Iran talks for safe passage, and now EU efforts to do the same…

Regardless, it’s more than obvious that the waterway is de facto shut – with perhaps the exception of some Chinese or possibly an Indian vessel being allowed through – also amid persisting threats of rocket and drone attacks.

According to the Financial Times, “European capitals have opened the tentative discussions in an attempt to restart oil and gas exports without expanding the conflict, three officials briefed on the talks told the FT, as shipping companies look to western navies to provide potential escorts for their tankers.”

“France is one of the countries involved in the talks, two of the officials said,” the report continues. “The first official said Italy had also made attempts to open discussions with Tehran on the issue.”

As for whether the war expands or not, that’s in no way under Europe’s control – but remains something pertaining only to Israel, the United States, and Iran – the main players in the conflict.

The case for some shred of optimism or hope? However, Trump and Hegseth’s bellicose tones on Friday morning, vowing to keep ramping up military action over Tehran, underscores continued extreme uncertainty:

If Iran allows China and India oil through the Strait, that’s more than half of normal oil traffic already (7mmb/d). Throw in the Saudi East-West pipeline for redirection (another 7mb/d) and the blockade suddenly shrinks a lot pic.twitter.com/64xoGJpiHG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 13, 2026

Meanwhile the Trump administration has sought to push back against reporting by CNN and others which alleges war-planners didn’t actually take into account that attacking Iran would result in Hormuz’s closure or blockage.

Here’s how Hegseth responded to the charge on Friday morning – while trying to paint a general picture that the mainstream media is clouding the picture, and just trying to make Trump ‘look bad’:

“This is always what they do, hold the strait hostage. CNN doesn’t think we thought of that? It’s a fundamentally unserious report,” Hegseth said. “The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better.”

Skeptics have pushed back against Pentagon and White House claims of lengthy preparations and plans to use military force to clear the Strait of Hormuz, and yet now 13 days into a war with Iran and there’s been no US action in the waterway, and not so much as a single US naval escort that anyone is aware of.

So far there does seem to be a constant flow of words on the issue coming from the White House and Pentagon – and yet a clear strategy still hasn’t been articulated, much less clear action taking shape.

Is the mini recession in the US job market ending? 

After slumping in late 2025, it has been a rocky road for the US labor market, especially after the February payrolls print shocked with how bad it was. But according to the latest JOLTS job openings and turnover report published by the BLS moments ago, by the time the February NFP picture was taking place, the seeds of a recovery may have been planted already thanks to a surge in US job openings, which rose by 396K in January, the biggest increase since Nov 2024, to 6.946 million from 6.550 million and the highest since last October.

Looking at the details, we find the the biggest increases were in finance and insurance (+184K), which is odd for a sector about to be swept by the private credit crisis. Other sector that saw a big jump in job openings were Trade, Transportation and Utilities, driven by a 130K increase in retail trade jobs; Private education and health services job opening also jumped by 123K, while Leisure and Hospitality increased by 185K. Professional and business services was the only major sector to see a sharp drop in job openings.

The jump in job openings means that after hitting a 5 year high, the labor demand deficit was cut in half, and in January there were 422K fewer job openings than unemployed workers, a big drop from the 953K the month prior.

Despite the jump in openings, the shift wasn’t big enough to change the openings to unemployed ratio, which remained at 0.9x, the lowest it has been since 2021.

And another indication that the labor market slump may be ending, after slamming hard at the end of 2025, both the number of hires and quits has rebounded, although it is still too early to determine if this is a regime change or just a dead cat bounce.

Overall, today’s JOLTs report was unexpectedly strong and should put to rest some of the fears sparked by last Friday’s catastrophic jobs report.