Just 24 hours before Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are set to meet for their planned summit in Beijing, soon on the heels of Trump’s visit, and a geopolitical wrench may have just been thrown into the works.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian forces have attacked a Chinese ship heading toward a Ukrainian port – a provocative move that threatens to seriously anger Beijing at the worst possible diplomatic moment.

Early Monday morning, a Russian drone reportedly struck the KSL Deyang, a vessel flying under the Marshall Islands flag, just off the coast of Ukraine, Reuters also confirms.

The ship was reportedly empty at the time while en route to Ukraine’s Pivdennyi port in the Odesa region to load up on iron ore concentrate.

A fire was observed on board, but it was quickly brought under control and extinguished, with the vessel escaping severe damage. 

The Ukrainian government is alleging this wasn’t some kind of accidental fog-of-war blunder, with President Zelensky immediately calling out Moscow:

“Drones struck Odesa … and one of the UAVs hit a vessel owned by China. The Russians could not have been unaware of what vessel was at sea,” Zelensky said.

A Ukrainian navy spokesman told AFP that none of the crew members, all Chinese nationals, were injured. He added that the vessel continued on its journey.

“The ship was entering for loading. After it was hit at night by a Shahed, the crew coped with the consequences on their own. Fortunately, no one was injured, and the vessel continued on its way to its port of destination,” navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.

The incident went down just after on Sunday Xi and Putin had just exchanged “congratulatory letters” to set the stage for Putin’s upcoming arrival in Beijing. 

The China-owned vessel wasn’t the only ship attacked within that span of time. According to The Independent:

Russia attacked a Panama-flagged civilian vessel heading to Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port in the southern Odesa region on the Black Sea early on Monday, the regional governor said.

It is one of several ships destined for Ukrainian ports that have been struck by Russian forces in the past day.

The vessel was damaged in the attack, which caused a fire, Governor Oleh Kiper said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that no one had been injured in the incident and that the crew had extinguished the fire. The vessel has continued on its way, the governor added.

TradeWinds is also suggesting a third ship was struck, but few details have been given. Black Sea transit continues to be a dangerous prospect, also with naval mines long being a feature of the 4+ year long war.

Update (1130ET): The DOJ announces that as a part of the settlement agreement in President Donald Trump v. the IRS, the Attorney General established “The Anti-Weaponization Fund” to provide a systematic process to hear and redress claims of others who suffered weaponization and lawfare.

“The machinery of government should never be weaponized against any American, and it is this Department’s intention to make right the wrongs that were previously done while ensuring this never happens again,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “As part of this settlement, we are setting up a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress.”

“The use of government power to target individuals or entities for improper and unlawful political, personal, or ideological reasons should not be tolerated by any Administration,” said Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter. 

Bloomberg reports that the fund will receive $1.776 billion and will come from the judgment fund, which is a perpetual appropriation allowing DOJ to settle and pay cases.

The fund will have the power to issue formal apologies and monetary relief owed to claimants.

The Fund will consist of a Commission of five members appointed by the Attorney General. One Member will be chosen in consultation with congressional leadership. The President can remove any member, but a replacement must be chosen the same way as the replaced member was selected.

*  *  *

As Tom Ozimek detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, President Trump’s attorneys on Monday filed a court notice voluntarily dismissing his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS and the U.S. Treasury Department, in a case that accused the agencies of failing to prevent a former contractor from leaking Trump’s tax returns to the media.

No reason was stated in the May 18 motion, which asks the court to dismiss the case with prejudice, meaning Trump and the other plaintiffs cannot bring the same claims again in the future. A court filing in April indicated that talks were underway to settle the case, with the parties stating at the time that discussions were taking place “productively to avoid protracted ligitation.”

Monday’s filing said the IRS and Treasury Department had neither filed an answer nor moved for summary judgment, allowing the plaintiffs to dismiss the action unilaterally without requiring court approval or government consent.

Trump, along with two ​of his sons and the Trump ⁠family business, sued the IRS ​and the Treasury Department in January, accusing both agencies of failing to take mandatory precautions to prevent former IRS contractor Charles “Chaz” Littlejohn from illegally obtaining access to their tax records and disclosing that information to The New York Times and ProPublica.

The lawsuit alleged that Littlejohn had “staff-like access” to confidential tax return information and exploited weaknesses in IRS safeguards to obtain and leak the records between 2019 and 2020.

Lawsuit Details

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, sought at least $10 billion in damages and accused the IRS and THE Treasury of violating federal privacy laws governing taxpayer information.

Trump brought the suit in his personal capacity, while Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and the Trump Organization were also named as plaintiffs.

Littlejohn, who at the time was employed by defense contractor Booz Allen Hamilton, was accused of having improperly accessed and disclosed tax information related to Trump and affiliated entities, including business holdings.

The plaintiffs claimed Littlejohn’s actions caused “reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump, and the other plaintiffs’ public standing.”

The lawsuit argued that IRS and Treasury safeguards were so inadequate that the agency took roughly 3 years to detect the breach.

“Defendants had a duty to safeguard and protect Plaintiffs’ confidential tax returns and related tax return information from such unauthorized inspection and public disclosure,” the complaint alleged, pointing to the need for the agencies to have in place appropriate technical, employee screening, and monitoring systems to prevent Littlejohn’s actions.

“Defendants failed to take such mandatory precautions.”

Littlejohn pleaded guilty in October 2023 to one count of unauthorized disclosure of tax return information.

Prosecutors said he used broad search parameters to conceal his activities, uploaded stolen data to a private website to avoid IRS monitoring systems, and stored records on personal devices before providing them to media outlets.

In January 2024, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes sentenced Littlejohn to five years in prison, the maximum sentence permitted under the statute. Reyes described the breach as the “biggest heist” in IRS history.

“It cannot be open season on our elected officials,” Reyes said, noting that Littlejohn purposefully sought his job at least in part to obtain and leak tax information.

Before Monday’s voluntary dismissal, the case had appeared to be moving toward a possible resolution in recent weeks.

In an April 17 filing, attorneys for Trump and the Justice Department jointly requested a 90-day pause in proceedings to allow settlement negotiations to continue.

The IRS and THE Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the dismissal filing.

Confirming our Sunday preview, overnight China reported growth data which slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines, retail sales missing sales and growing at the weakest rate in 4 years while industrial production rose at the slowest pace in three years, calling into question Beijing’s reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits factories and consumers across the world.

China’s Monday data dump of official data on Monday painted a picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating consumption at home, prompting analysts at banks including Nomura and SocGen to urge bolder measures in support of growth.

As shown in the chart below, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier, while industrial production grew just 4.1% last month, the weakest in almost three years. Retail sales also missed forecasts and rose just 0.2% in April, the worst reading since they contracted in December 2022, when China reopened from Covid.

What is shocking is that it is common knowledge that Beijing traditionally massages its economic data to present itself in the rosiest possible light: the fact that it allowed data this ugly would suggest that the picture on the ground is much uglier. 

Goldman’s Delta One head Rich Privorotsky captured this sentiment well, writing this morning that “overnight news from China showed economic data materially below expectations. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all missed meaningfully. It’s hard to tell whether this reflects genuine demand destruction but perhaps it helps explain how the oil market has managed to balance despite ongoing supply concerns. I genuinely can’t remember a period when Chinese data, which tends to be heavily massaged, missed by anything close to this magnitude. Negative read through for consumption related categories.“

Remarkably, not a single economist surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted as pessimistic a reading for industry, retail sales and investment. The disappointing performance of the world’s second-biggest economy last month is a reminder of its domestic vulnerabilities, after a global artificial intelligence investment boom sent trade soaring.

The breadth of the acute slowdown in April has put the prospect of a more aggressive stimulus back on the agenda after China stood out in its resilience to the fallout from the Iran war. The government pulled back on fiscal spending in March, while the central bank has steered clear of even hinting at any further loosening in policy, amid ample market liquidity and weak demand for credit. 

Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, described the deterioration of economic indicators as “a normal fluctuation from month to month.” But he also highlighted challenges such as a persistent imbalance between supply and demand as well as a complex global environment.

Investment plunged by around 8% in April from a year earlier, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics, returning to a similar pace of decline seen in the second half of 2025. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment both weakened, while private investment plummeted

In response to the dismal data, Nomura economists wrote that authorities “might need to step up policy support for stabilizing growth,” adding that “Beijing has no room for complacency.”

A rising number of economists has been forecasting the People’s Bank of China won’t lower interest rates this year after the oil shock pushed up inflation expectations, though many still expect a cut to lenders’ reserve requirement ratio. The PBOC last lowered the policy rate and the RRR at the peak of the trade tensions with the US a year ago. 

Authorities are still likely to take a patient approach and avoid rushing out response to just one month of data. The Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo will convene in July to review economic growth and policies, making it the next potential window for any adjustment in stimulus. 

“The stance still seems to be to play cautiously,” said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Our base case is no extra stimulus for the economy for the time being.”

Even though many manufacturers are struggling to cope with higher raw material costs, overall exports soared as Chinese tech products found willing buyers abroad. Greater demand for green energy products is also benefiting China. But a sustained weakening of investment and consumption at home could still bring risks to Beijing’s goal of achieving 4.5% to 5% artificial growth this year.

The April data suggest gross domestic product may expand as little as 4.1% on-year in the second quarter, which could prompt incremental policy easing, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. For now, Goldman is maintaining its forecast for a GDP gain of 4.7% in April-June, compared with 5% in the first three months of the year.

The data “should keep PBOC easing – RRR and even rate cuts – firmly on the table, while fiscal top-up may come later,” SocGen’s head China economist Wei Yao wrote in a note.

The plunging manufacturing data comes at a time of continued dismal credit demand and heavy rainfall in southern China, which could be behind the sharp fall in capital spending, Goldman economist Lisheng Wang said in a note (available to pro subs here).

Statistical adjustment is another potential factor. Many economists believe authorities took measures to correct over-reporting of the data in late 2025. Such a change may have exaggerated the volatility of the figures recently, as the on-year contraction in steel and cement output narrowed in April, according to Goldman Sachs. 

The consumer economy has meanwhile continued to struggle as households spent less on items as varied as autos and furniture. Car sales plunged 15% in April from a year earlier, the worst contraction since mid-2022, when the country was under Covid restrictions. The government has scaled back subsidies for electric vehicle purchases this year, while the Iran oil shock hurt sales of gasoline-powered cars. 

Purchases of home appliances and furniture — products that used to be buoyed by government subsidies — declined at a double-digit pace. Gold, silver and jewelry sales plummeted 21% — a huge reversal from earlier this year and 2025, when soaring prices for precious metals led to a speculative investment frenzy.

The industrial sector is also getting more lopsided as export-driven sectors lead the growth while industries that relied on domestic sales lagged. The production of electronics, lifted by soaring global demand for AI chips, expanded 15.6% in April, the fastest pace in two years.

The auto industry also expanded briskly at 9.2%, as overseas EV sales took off. Meanwhile, commodities linked to real estate and construction — such as cement, glass and steel — recorded declines, while crude oil processing volume fell, which ING Bank economist Lynn Song attributed to the war’s impact

Soaring chip prices may partly explain why factory output weakened even as exports surged.  While industrial production is reported after an adjustment made for inflation, sales abroad are calculated in nominal terms, making it hard to separate movements in prices versus volumes. Surging costs of chips and electronics accounted for about half of April’s 14% headline export growth, according to Nomura. 

“China still looks like a two-speed economy: strong in strategic manufacturing and exports, but weak where household confidence matters most,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “The concern is not just that activity missed, but that the weakness is broadening across the domestic side of the economy.”

There is one silver lining when it comes to the Chinese economy: exports are expected to remain strong after climbing 15% in the first four months from a year ago. Stabilizing trade ties with the US, reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.

But a turnaround is nowhere in sight for domestic consumption. Chinese households net repaid the most loans in April since comparable data going back to 2010.

“Policy space remains ample,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings. “The April data are less a sign of deterioration than a trigger for more proactive easing — which should help anchor growth and support a gradual recovery into the second half of the year.”

The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) announced Monday that its forces executed a massive missile and drone barrage across Ukraine, which is clearly the expected big retaliatory response following Ukraine’s large-scale drone wave attack on Moscow over the weekend.

Kremlin officials specifically described the new assault as indeed direct retaliation for “terrorist attacks” carried out by Kiev, which killed at least three in the Russian capital, injured dozens, hit a refinery, and unleashed havoc and fear among the population. The MoD said it targeted military and defense industrial sites, but Ukraine’s account differed.

Ukrainian forces had deployed at least 130 UAVs during the capital-bound raid, and damaged a major regional airport. Large fires were spotted near major roadways, sometimes in the heart of busy city areas.

Russia’s nighttime into early Monday retaliation has been expectedly fierce, as overnight it specifically targeted Odesa and Dnipro, leaving at least one person dead and over 30 injured. In the port city of Odesa, the drone strikes damaged residential buildings, a school, and a kindergarten, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian media chronicled some of the following:

• On Sunday, Russia carried out a combined overnight attack on the city of Dnipro, striking a residential area, sparking multiple fires, and causing casualties.
• According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces began launching drones toward Dnipro at approximately 8 p.m.
• On Monday, May 18, at 2:32 a.m., Ukraine was under threat of ballistic missile strikes. Shortly afterward, missiles were detected heading toward Dnipro, including both ballistic and cruise missiles.
• According to local authorities, Russian drones struck three residential buildings in Odesa’s Kyivskyi and Prymorskyi districts.
• One of the buildings, a single-story house in the Prymorskyi district, was completely destroyed. Other buildings sustained damage to facades, roofs, and windows. Several fires broke out but were quickly extinguished.

But Ukraine’s cross-border drones have also continued unabated, as two people were killed and two more were injured following a a Monday UAV attack on Russia’s southern Belgorod region, local authorities said. Belgorod has come under regular attack since near the start of the war, given its southern-most location, close to the front-lines to the south in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Kremlin announced Monday that Moscow anticipates an eventual resumption of the Russia-Ukraine peace process, though it noted that negotiations are currently paused.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the statement in response to comments from President Trump, who on Friday suggested that a Russian missile strike hitting a Kiev residential building had delayed progress toward ending the four-year conflict.

Per the Associated Press, “The death toll from a Russian missile attack that flattened a Kyiv apartment building rose Friday to 24, including three teenagers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said as he led the mourning for one of the deadliest attacks on the capital in the 4-year-old war.”

Цієї ночі росія атакувала #Одесу безпілотниками: є постраждалі

Внаслідок влучання виникла пожежі та руйнування в житлових будинках. Попередньо 2 постраждалих, з них – дитина. Пожежі ліквідовані.

Від ДСНС залучалися понад 80 рятувальників pic.twitter.com/hFM1dSqyei

— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) May 18, 2026

“The cruise missile hit the nine-story corner apartment block Thursday during what the Ukrainian air force said was Russia’s biggest barrage on the country of the full-scale invasion. Emergency workers finished digging through the rubble searching for victims after more than a day, Zelenskyy said on X,” the report adds.

But in response, Peskov emphasized that focus should also be directed toward persistent Ukrainian strikes targeting civilian infrastructure inside Russia. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The surveillance state has found its newest frontier: your car’s dashboard. What used to be a symbol of American freedom and independence is rapidly morphing into a high-tech cage that watches your every move and can override your decisions at will.

In a widely shared post on X, users detailed complaints pouring in about Subaru’s upgraded AI ‘EyeSight’ system now featured on the latest models. 

Drivers report the system pouncing on brief glances away from the road – while Biden-era federal mandates prepare to make this level of surveillance mandatory in every new vehicle by 2027.

Subaru has released a new “EyeSight system” on their new vehicles

Drivers who bought the cars are saying if you glance off the road for a second to look at the mountains, or change a song, the vehicle starts alerting

It will also stop the car by using its ‘Emergency Stop Assist… pic.twitter.com/o0uAgLm58r

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 16, 2026

As the video highlights, even a momentary glance to change a song or take in the scenery triggers relentless alerts. The technology doesn’t stop there. 

Its new Emergency Stop Assist with Safe Lane Selection feature can detect what it calls an “unresponsive” driver, issue escalating warnings through sounds and steering wheel vibrations, and then take full control: automatically braking, slowing the vehicle, steering it to the shoulder, and activating hazard lights.

This isn’t some optional gimmick. It’s being rolled out as standard “safety” tech, but drivers are calling it exactly what it feels like – an overbearing electronic babysitter that treats competent adults like distracted children. 

It serves as a chilling preview of where the entire auto industry is headed under government pressure.

This kind of intrusive monitoring is precisely the tool a police state would dream of to exert total control over personal movement. If authorities gain deeper integration with these systems, they could effectively decide when, where, and if you get to drive at all.

The Subaru rollout is just the latest flashpoint in a broader push toward vehicle surveillance that goes far beyond basic safety. A federal mandate buried in the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act requires all new passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. to include advanced impaired-driving prevention technology starting with 2027 models. 

As detailed in reporting from the New York Post, this means infrared cameras and sensors constantly monitoring eyes, faces, head position, and behavior to detect distraction, drowsiness, or impairment – with the power to prevent the car from starting or limit its operation. https://nypost.com/2026/04/30/us-news/sinister-in-car-spy-tech-that-can…

Automakers are already patenting and deploying even more aggressive systems, including biometric scans that analyze everything from your gait to your heart rate. Privacy advocates warn the data won’t stay in the car – it could flow to insurers for risk scoring, law enforcement, or worse.

As we also recently highlighted, dystopian technology including AI face scanning, lip reading and emotion monitoring is being deployed in vehicles, as well as cross-checks for drivers against police databases before even allowing the vehicle to move. 

And authorities are already signaling their eagerness to weaponize these tools for broader travel restrictions. In Massachusetts, Democrats advanced a bill aimed at reducing statewide vehicle miles traveled to meet climate targets, pushing policies that critics say amount to limiting how far people can drive in their own cars. 

X users are reacting with the outrage this deserves, blasting the tech as the thin end of the wedge for total control:

Subaru just turned your car into a fvcking SNITCH. Look away for 2 seconds? BEEP BEEP, vibrate, and then it drives itself off the road like Karen on crack. Government wet dream 1984 Orwellian bullshit. 😒 Boycott these traitors. 🔥

— J. L. Hunter (@JLHunter1984) May 16, 2026

So, this thing will go off if you look into your mirrors or over your shoulder to see if it’s safe to take a turn, or change lane, or to brake. What a GREAT idea. Lets all tunnel vision on what’s in front of us and ignore everything else. What could possibly go wrong?

— sam (@donder172) May 16, 2026

Can only imagine what it would do if it knew you voted for a republican.

— Amos 9 Fifteen (@Amos467253) May 16, 2026

nice.

refuse to purchase a car like this.

simple as.

if they all go bankrupt, they will stop this shit. pic.twitter.com/8N5WQnMVyx

— HumanProbably (@HumanProbably2) May 16, 2026

It must be stopped and waiting for some genius aftermarket design to override. Kill it. Kill all surveillance that’s being rolled out. It must be destroyed.

— L. (@LisaFMRRN) May 16, 2026

Globalist climate agendas, big government overreach, and corporate-government collusion are converging to strip away the last vestiges of personal autonomy on the open road. What starts as “safety features” and “environmental goals” ends with your car deciding whether you’re allowed to leave your driveway.

Americans have always valued the freedom to get behind the wheel and go where they please without Big Brother riding shotgun. 

These prison pods represent the opposite vision – one of constant monitoring, automated intervention, and restricted mobility. 

The only real answer is rejection: refuse to buy these surveilled vehicles, support politicians who fight the mandates, and preserve the used car market as the last refuge of actual driving freedom.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Looking at the week ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with a market capitalisation now of $5.46tn, will be the main event. In economics, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with inflation data from Canada tomorrow, the UK on Wednesday, and Japan on Friday. From central banks, the highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Those flash PMIs will be important, as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinized for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices.

The US calendar is relatively light, with the NAHB housing market index today expected to remain unchanged at a cyclically low 34, followed by Tuesday’s pending home sales, where a modest +1.0% increase is anticipated (from +1.5% previously). Attention will then turn to Thursday’s April housing activity data, where housing starts are expected to ease to an annualized pace of 1.425mn (from 1.502mn), while permits are projected to tick higher to 1.375mn (from 1.363mn). All estimates are according to our economists.

Beyond housing, Thursday is the key day for macro releases. The weekly initial jobless claims are expected to edge slightly lower to 209k (from 211k). The same day will also bring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, where our economists expect a pullback to +21.0 (from +26.7), alongside the flash PMIs. In the US, manufacturing is expected to soften marginally to 53.7 (from 54.5), while services are seen ticking up to 51.5 (from 51.0).

In contrast to consumer sentiment—which will see an updated reading of the Michigan survey on Friday (expected at 48.2 versus 49.8 previously)—business surveys have generally remained more resilient despite the energy shock. That said, some indicators have shown rising input costs and lengthening delivery times, developments that could signal renewed inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.

Turning to central bank communications, the Fed speaker slate is relatively limited but still notable. Governor Waller is scheduled to participate in an ECB policy panel tomorrow, alongside comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker (voter) on the outlook. On Wednesday, Vice Chair Barr will discuss consumer financial health metrics, while the Fed will also publish the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin (non-voter) will follow on Thursday with remarks on the economy, before Governor Waller rounds out the week with a further appearance on Friday.

In Europe, the highlights will include the UK labour market report tomorrow and inflation data on Wednesday. DB’s UK economist expects headline CPI to slow to 2.98% YoY and core CPI to fall to 2.61% YoY. More detail and forecasts are in the full inflation spotlight note here. The UK will also release the GfK May consumer confidence index and April retail sales on Friday. Other notable European releases include Eurozone consumer confidence on Thursday and Germany’s Ifo survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan faces a busy week, with key data including Q1 GDP tomorrow and April nationwide CPI on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist expects positive real growth of an annualised 1.3% QoQ for the GDP report and sees core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, holding at 1.8% YoY, alongside a retreat in core-core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, to 2.2% (from 2.4% in March). 

Finally, beyond Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, results are also due from major US retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and TJX.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day by day calendar of the week’s main events:

Monday May 18

• Data: US May New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, March total net TIC flows, China April retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Italy March trade balance
• Central banks: BoE’s Greene and Mann speak
• Earnings: Baidu, Ryanair Holdings
• Other: G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors (through May 19)

Tuesday May 19

• Data: US April pending home sales, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada April CPI, March building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB’s Lane and Makhlouf speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Home Depot, Amer Sports

Wednesday May 20

• Data: UK April CPI, RPI, PPI, March house price index, Germany April PPI, Denmark Q1 GDP
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, Fed’s Paulson and Barr speak, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates
• Earnings: NVIDIA, Analog Devices, TJX, Lowe’s, Intuit, Target, Experian, Marks & Spencer
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bonds ($16bn)

Thursday May 21

• Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and Eurozone May preliminary PMIs, US May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, April housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, Japan April trade balance, March core machine orders, Italy March current account balance, ECB March current account, Eurozone March construction output, Q1 labour costs, May consumer confidence, Australia April labour force survey
• Central banks: ECB’s Villeroy speaks, BoJ’s Koeda speaks, BoE’s Taylor speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Deere, Generali, Ross Stores, Take-Two, BT, Zoom, Workday
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)

Friday May 22

• Data: US May Kansas City Fed services activity, UK May GfK consumer confidence, April retail sales, public finances, Japan April national CPI, Germany June GfK consumer confidence, May Ifo survey, France May business confidence, Canada March retail sales, April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB’s Vujcic, Kazimir, Muller and Lane speak
• Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont, Lenovo

Taking a look at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Waller and Barr and Presidents Paulson and Barkin. The minutes to the FOMC’s April meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, May 18 

• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus 34, last 34)

Tuesday, May 19 

• 08:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank. Moderated Q&A is expected. On April 17th, Waller cautioned that higher oil prices as a result of the Iran war could lead to a “more lasting increase in inflation.” Waller noted that “if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” that could require “maintaining the policy rate at the current target range.”
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.5%)
• 07:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak about the economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Markets Conference. Text and audience Q&A are expected. On March 27th, Paulson said that there was “a little bit more of a risk that the transmission of higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, into inflation expectations is faster and maybe a little bit more durable.” That said, Paulson also noted that “for [all these shocks] to turn into sustained inflation, you need a mechanism that keeps that going” and that “on the wage-setting side, it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of impetus that would make that happen now.”

Wednesday, May 20 

• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on consumer financial health at a conference in Atlanta, Georgia. Text is expected. On May 5th, Barr said that “the longer [the Iran war] goes on, the greater the risk that the inflation we’re seeing in these prices becomes embedded in the economy, and then we have to worry more.” Barr noted that “we’re in a situation right now where we really need to wait and see to understand what direction [the conflict] is going.”
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, April 28-29 meeting: At its April meeting, the FOMC left the fed funds rate and the policy guidance in its statement unchanged. Presidents Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari dissented against the implicit easing bias in the standing policy guidance, while Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25bp cut. Chair Powell said that the number of FOMC participants who could support moving to balanced guidance has increased since March and that the center of the FOMC “is moving toward a more neutral” outlook for future rate changes, but most felt making a change now was unnecessary. We pushed back our expectations for Fed cuts by one quarter to December and March. With energy cost passthrough likely to keep year-over-year core PCE inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year, we think that a combination of lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades and further labor market softening will likely be needed for the FOMC to cut this year. We still expect that bar to be met but now expect it to take a bit longer.

Thursday, May 21 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 16 (GS 210k, consensus 210k, last 211k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 9 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,782k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS 20.0, consensus 18.0, last 26.7)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS -3.5%, consensus -5.5%, last +10.8%) 
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 53.7, last 54.5); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 51.0)
• 12:20 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech at the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Raleigh, North Carolina. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, May 22 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (GS 48.2, consensus 48.3, last 48.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May final (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks; Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a lecture on the economic outlook at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in Germany. Text and moderated Q&A are expected.

Source: Goldman, DB

Downward momentum in South Korean stocks was halted on Monday as optimism returned to Samsung Electronics after the company and its union reopened talks to resolve contract disputes and avert a strike that could begin as soon as Thursday.

Bloomberg reported that the union’s leader would “sincerely engage” with Samsung executives. The world’s most important memory chip maker was also granted several requests by a Korean court, including orders to block the union from occupying company facilities.

The union is still threatening an 18-day walkout beginning Thursday unless its contract demands are met, but both sides signaled earlier today a willingness to resolve the labor dispute.

On Saturday, Samsung also made a concession by replacing its lead negotiator, while Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Chairman Jay Y. Lee publicly urged compromise.

Shares of Samsung in South Korea closed up 3.5%, helping lift the country’s main equity index, KOSPI, after it had slid late last week on labor action fears.

Goldman analyst Christy Park told clients, “By now, one would know: any correction on Hynix & Samsung = Buy (*note Hynix shares corrected >1% only 5x times since April out of 30+ sessions in which at ALL times regained more than its losses immediately within the following 1~3 days).”

Park listed the catalysts for Samsung & Hynix:

• Resolution to the labor union strike removing overhang (Samsung; co replaced its entire negotiation team)

• Continued conventional memory pricing strength acting as a tailwind (Samsung has higher exposure vs. Hynix) 2027 HBM pricing upside given HBM now sold at a discount vs. conventional DRAM (both Samsung & Hynix)

• Upside in shareholder return given the substantial growth in FCF (Samsung: 2024-2026 shareholder return policy of paying back 50% of this)

• Potential ADR listing of Kioxia could be positive for Hynix sentiment (as Hynix owns a meaningful stake in Kioxia through a consortium) ADR listing of SK HYNIX (anticipated in July)

• We see Agentic AI driving a 24x jump in token consumption by 2030 (120 quadrillion tokens per month) (both Samsung & Hynix)

In a separate note, Tom Kang, director at Counterpoint Research, said, “There is a clear need for both sides to reach an agreement,” adding that both sides have relatively little experience because Samsung has historically lacked a strong union culture.

“The gap may seem large, but the issues are workable,” Kang said. “I believe the differences can be resolved without a strike.”

Taiwan-based market intelligence and research firm TrendForce pointed out:

Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited.

However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, and customer relations. In terms of unionization, about half of all employees across the Samsung Group are union members, most of whom work in the semiconductor division. Internally, management has already extended an olive branch to the DRAM division, but has not yet reached an agreement with union members in the Foundry and LSI divisions.

Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited. However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, as well… https://t.co/l2ibgeXEIL

— TrendForce (@trendforce) May 15, 2026

Professional subscribers can read the full “[GS] KOREA: Buy” here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline.

• Since the expanded TMX pipeline launched in 2024, exports to Asia—especially China—have surged, with up to 70% of shipments from British Columbia heading to Asian buyers by late 2025.

• Officials now see TMX as a highly profitable “strategically important asset,” with potential for further expansion

The Canadian federal government may reconsider a plan to privatize the Trans Mountain oil pipeline and keep it state-owned amid a surge in appetite for Canadian crude to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels.

“The prior narrative had been that this should be returning to private hands,” the head of the government entity that owns Trans Mountain said at an event this week, as quoted by the Financial Post.

“That was in a different market and that was in a different time,” Elizabeth Wademan also said.

Indeed, this is a very different market from what it was when the government in Ottawa had to step in and buy Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan, which quit the project under relentless pressure from climate activists who used environmental regulations to strangle the expansion project. The price tag for the nationalization deal, which took place in 2018, was about $3.3 billion, and the Trudeau government quickly signaled it would start looking for buyers as soon as possible.

By 2024, the cost of the pipeline expansion project had swelled to about $23 billion, but the project, somewhat surprisingly, was completed, and the expanded pipeline launched in May of that year, running at three times its original capacity or a total of 890,000 barrels daily.

The destination for these barrels was the vast Asian market, as a way to diversify away from the U.S., which has for decades been pretty much the only foreign market for Canadian crude—and an export conduit, with the oil transported from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and from there, to markets overseas. With the new TMX, Canadian crude producers got a new, more convenient channel to Asian energy buyers.

It did not take long for the effect to be felt: between the launch of the expanded pipe and spring 2025, the average flow rates for shipment to China reached 207,000 barrels daily. That compares with an average of 173,000 barrels daily pumped to the United States. Since spring, the shift has become even more marked. By October 2025, as much as 70% of Canadian crude exported from the British Columbia coast was going to China. Now, everyone else in Asia is also interested.

The Trans Mountain pipeline is a “strategically important asset”, Trans Mountain Corp.’s Wademan said this week, suggesting the project could be expanded further, with more “energy corridors” that would add value for Canadians, the Financial Post reported.

“Let’s look where we are, and look how important energy security is, and look how incredibly profitable this asset is; there’s a lot,” Wademan said.

“There’s a lot of merit to holding onto it and realizing that full value.”

Indeed, it would be profitable for the federal government to hold on to the infrastructure as the price of Canadian crude inches closer to $90 per barrel—a level hardly seen as possible just five years ago, and even more recently. TMX has turned into a game-changer for the Canadian oil industry and it will be in the center of the “golden opportunity” that Canada has to become a bigger global player in both oil and gas.

Canada has a “golden opportunity” to become a major global oil player as the war in the Middle East limits sources of crude and natural gas, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said earlier this month, adding that “The cost of missing this train will be incredible.” It seems the Canadian government is acutely aware of that risk and plans to avoid it and make the best of the country’s resources in a fascinating departure from the previous government’s focus on emission reduction and alternative energy.

Shortly after the Iran war started, with gold unexpectedly tumbling, we showed that the reason behind gold’s paradoxical move – after all, the precious metal has traditionally been a store of value in times of geopolitical stress – was the furious liquidation of gold by emerging markets, in this case Turkey, scrambling to obtain reserve dry powder so Ankara could cover soaring costs of energy imports.

And indeed, the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.

According to balance-of-payments data released on Wednesday, Turkey’s official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.

A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira. 

“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.

Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.

Since President Erdogan’s reelection in 2023, a new economic team has sought to stabilize Turkey’s external finances by cooling demand through conventional tools such as higher interest rates and restrictions on credit growth.

The central bank has kept its benchmark rate at 37% for two straight meetings but has effectively lended from a costlier rate of 40% since the outbreak of the Iran war — a technical measure to tighten liquidity without instituting a formal rate hike.

Inflationary pressures persist, however, with annual price growth picking up to 32.4% in April, a number that is set to rise higher in the coming months. 

Update(1410ET): President Trump has warned Iran on Sunday that the “clock is ticking” as Pakistani-mediated talks have not only stalled, but show no signs at all of restarting anytime soon. “They better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” he wrote on Truth Social. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

He spoke the same day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who along with Lindsey Graham has been calling for resumption of robust anti-Tehran action to ensure Iran can never go nuclear. Trump’s words have been somewhat of a familiar refrain going back several weeks. 

As we detailed below, Iran says it received a counter proposal of ‘5 conditions’ for peace from the White House. In many ways they are directly opposite the 5 conditions Iran sent to the US last week, which Trump had rejected as “garbage”.

But as yet there’s been no indicator that the US side has attached a timeline to its latest demands. Trump is perhaps pushing this new “clock is ticking” as a timeline threat of sorts. But again, there was no specific date included in the fresh warning.

Last week Bloomberg Intelligence circulated a report titled, Iran Rejects Trump’s Offer – Return to War Likely. It concluded:

The diplomatic dance continues: the US and Iran exchanged offers yet again. But they remain far apart, shooting maximalist demands at each other. A comprehensive peace deal is unlikely to materialize. We think the US and Iran will likely return to strikes. But we expect an intense exchange of fire to be temporary and reduce to lower-levels of fighting – what we call the new normal in this protracted conflict. 

More from the Bloomberg Intelligence analysis: 

Short but Intense… and Costly

Trump doesn’t want long war. His popularity is taking a hit as its economic impact is being felt.

We think Trump will likely revert to a short air and missile strike campaign on Iranian infrastructure, military positions, and energy assets while simultaneously continuing the blockade. Tehran will likely respond with strikes of its own, both on US military assets and America’s regional partners. But we expect this to be a short bombardment, rather than the sustained, high-intensity strike campaign that marked the beginning of the war.

The war has already imposed a heavy economic cost. Oil markets flipped from an expected record surplus to historic supply disruption. Major central banks, facing fresh inflation risks, are turning more hawkish. Consumers now pay more for energy, while their borrowing costs also rise, and the future grows more uncertain.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more it will drain the oil stockpiles cushioning governments, companies, and consumers today. Once inventories run thin, prices need to do the hard work: rising high enough to curb demand back in line with available supply.

Since that report was issued, nothing has changed, and both sides seem to have dug in their heels even more.

*  *  *

According to a Sunday report from Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, the United States has laid down a firm, take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum to Tehran. Both sides are still trying to patiently wait out the Hormuz crisis, hoping to inflict more economic pain on the other until they blink.

At the top of the list, the US is demanding a near-total dismantling of Iran’s atomic ambitions, “allowing only one Iranian nuclear facility to remain operational.” 

The list includes direct rejections in response to Iran’s own five conditions from a week ago, which President Trump said were “unacceptable” and “garbage”.

For example the US is refusing to pay compensation for damage caused during strikes on Iranian territory – a ‘maximalist’ sticking point which Tehran had demanded previously.

Washington is also reportedly insists that 400 kilograms of enriched uranium be transferred from Iran to the US, while only one active nuclear facility would remain operational inside the Islamic Republic.

Iran for its part has recently vowed to never transfer its nuclear material out of the Islamic Republic, calling the issue a matter of national sovereignty and energy security which it alone has say over. This after even Russia offered to take it.

The newly reported five conditions by the US side further states that the US does not intend to release more than 25% of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran has demanded the dropping of all US sanctions as a key basis for lasting settlement.

Here are the five newly proposed Washington conditions, which some pundits have called ‘wishful thinking’:

1. No war compensation from US
2. Give up 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium to US 
3. Iran can only have on nuclear facility to remain active
4. Not more than 25% of frozen assets to be unfreezed 
5. Halting war on all fronts depends on negotiations

So this leaves a huge distance between the Washington list and Tehran’s list, as the seemingly unbridgeable gulf remains, also as Iran is digging in its heels.

As a reminder, the below is the Islamic Republic’s list, which it hasn’t backed down from. It has offered the following as the only basis on which to restart talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
2. Lifting all sanctions
3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets
4. Compensation for war damages and losses
5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

US response to #Iran includes zero compensation, not even 25% of frozen assets released, keeping only one #nuclear facility active, handing over 400kg of highly enriched uranium to the US, and ending the war on all fronts dependent on the negotiations. https://t.co/riS7M4fEeF

— Abas Aslani (@AbasAslani) May 17, 2026

While a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire managed to take effect on April 8, subsequent talks in Islamabad completely collapsed, but then President Trump later extended the truce indefinitely, likely to buy time and to figure out “what’s next” – while seeking a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, and of all vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports.

With Washington demanding total disarmament and Iran demanding control over the world’s most critical oil transit choke point, the stage is set for a likely coming renewal of direct clashes, given the zero sum demands of each side now on the table.