Federal agents from the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) executed court-authorized search warrants at more than 20 locations across the Minneapolis area early Tuesday morning, targeting businesses primarily linked to the Somali-American community as part of an ongoing criminal fraud investigation.

Fox News congressional correspondent Bill Melugin reported that the Department of Justice confirmed the operation to the network, stating it involves “court-authorized law enforcement activity as part of an ongoing fraud investigation.” A separate DHS statement emphasized that HSI, working with federal, state, and local partners, carried out the warrants “relating to the rampant fraud of U.S. taxpayers dollars.” Sources indicated approximately 22 warrants were served, explicitly tied to fraud schemes rather than immigration enforcement.

BREAKING: DOJ confirms to @FoxNews that FBI and HSI agents are currently raiding 20+ locations in the Minneapolis, MN area in relation to ongoing federal fraud investigations. Sources tell FOX the locations are largely Somali linked businesses, including the infamous “Quality…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 28, 2026

One prominent target was the Quality Learning Center (aka “Quality Learing Center”) on Nicollet Avenue. The site, which previously operated as Salama Child Care Center, received roughly $1.9 million in Minnesota Child Care Assistance Program funds in fiscal year 2025 alone. It gained national attention in late December 2025 after independent journalist Nick Shirley released a video showing the center appearing largely empty during business hours, with a prominently misspelled sign. Shirley alleged widespread “ghost” operations billing government programs for nonexistent services and children.

NEW: The Quality Learing Center in Minneapolis is now “trucking” in children after Nick Shirley’s viral video, according to the New York Post.

The Post reports that the parking lot at the infamous Quality Learing Center is now “bustling with kids.”

“We’ve never seen kids go… pic.twitter.com/K578UTvLXG

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 30, 2025

The center voluntarily surrendered its state license in early January amid heightened scrutiny. It had a prior federal footprint: in May 2015, the same location was raided by the FBI and Minnesota DHS over allegations of billing state programs for non-existent children, leading to license revocation actions for safety violations.

A Pattern of Massive Fraud

Today’s raids continue a months-long federal surge into Minnesota’s social-services programs, which have been plagued by some of the largest fraud cases in recent U.S. history. The most notorious remains Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that prosecutors say orchestrated a $250+ million scheme to steal federal child nutrition funds during the COVID-19 pandemic through fake meal sites, inflated attendance rosters, and money laundering. Dozens of defendants—predominantly Somali-American—have been charged, with multiple convictions and sentencings continuing into 2026.

Other active investigations include:

• Autism and early intervention (EIDBI) services fraud
• Housing Stabilization Services
• Integrated Community Supports
• Medicaid personal-care assistance schemes
• SNAP benefit trafficking (including “Operation Cold SNAP” raids in April 2026)

In January, Federal authorities reported issuing over 1,750 subpoenas, executing more than 130 search warrants, and interviewing over 1,000 witnesses across these cases.

Homeland Security Investigations @ICEGov are on the ground in Minneapolis right now conducting a massive investigation on childcare and other rampant fraud.

More coming. pic.twitter.com/0DhyKedSyu

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@EnvoyNoem) December 29, 2025

FBI Director Kash Patel publicly described the Minnesota situation as “the tip of a very large iceberg,” prompting a surge of bureau resources to the state. DHS has conducted hundreds of door-to-door inspections under initiatives such as Operation Twin Shield.

Political and Community Context

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison have faced sharp criticism from congressional Republicans and House Oversight committees for what critics call inadequate oversight of high-risk providers and slow state-level responses. State officials have countered that many centers serve legitimate low-income families (including large Somali-American populations) and that enforcement actions predate viral videos.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, whose district encompasses much of the affected Minneapolis area, has condemned the fraud as “reprehensible” while warning against broad stigmatization of the Somali community.

Her office has distanced itself from charged individuals, though some Republican lawmakers have pointed to past legislative efforts (such as expansions of child nutrition programs) and constituent ties as areas of scrutiny. No charges have been filed against Omar or her immediate family in these matters.

Somali community leaders have expressed concerns about economic fallout and reputational harm to legitimate businesses, while federal prosecutors stress that the investigations target criminal conduct and protect funds intended for vulnerable populations.

As of early Tuesday, no arrests or specific new charges from today’s warrants have been publicly detailed. More information is expected from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Minnesota, the FBI’s Minneapolis Field Office, and DHS. 

Summary

• Trump TS claim: Tehran has informed Washington they are in a “state of collapse” and that the Iranians want the US to “open the Hormuz Strait” – as ‘tank tops’ loom.

• Trump doesn’t appear open to Iran’s proposal which hinges on US naval blockade ending & nuclear issue being pushed to future negotiations (CNN).

• First crude-laden Japanese tanker from Saudi port exits Hormuz Strait successfully without Iranian interference.

• Iranian analyst describes that Tehran believes it can outlast Trump & the standoff with US in Hormuz, citing “munitions, markets, and the midterms.”

*  *  *

Trump claims Iranians in ‘State of Collapse’

Literally one minute before market-open, and President Trump issues the following big claim: he says that Tehran has informed Washington they are in a “state of collapse” and that the Iranians want the US to “open the Hormuz Strait”. Of course, even if it were true, why would the Iranians admit such a thing to their enemy during a state of war?

There have been some signs of political fracture – especially tensions between IRGC and civilian leadership – but so far the evidence has been anecdotal at best. Currently the internal Iranian government debate seems to be on whether to talk to the US or not – but again, amid the fog of war… all Western MSM can do is speculate, aside from the rare Iranian ‘anonymous’ source that might whisper in a reporter’s ear.

Oil Rises to 3-week High as Trump Doesn’t Appear Open To Iran Proposal

Reporting from Monday evening and overnight says President Trump doesn’t appear open to Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, which hinges on the US naval blockade being lifted but pushes the nuclear issue off to later negotiations. As a result, oil prices have continued to rise, climbing above $110 a barrel Tuesday morning – a first in three weeks, amid concerns of a prolonged strait closure. As for the latest tankers to actually make it through, CBS describes:

Four civilian ships appeared to leave the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday without Iranian interference, including a Japanese oil tanker carrying some two million barrels of crude from Saudi Arabia. 

The Panama-flagged crude oil tanker Idemitsu Maru called at Saudi Arabia’s Juamyah industrial port in early March, according to open source data from the MarineTraffic ship tracking website. For the past week it had remained anchored off the coast of Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf, until late Monday, when it sailed toward Iran’s Larak island in the Strait of Hormuz. 

On Tuesday morning, tracking data showed the vessel passing south of Iran’s Larak island, which analysts say the regime had used as a “toll booth” to collect fees from some ships before military authorities declared the strait entirely closed again last week.  

The White House has insisted that there would be no scheme for Iran collecting tolls as part of any future deal, but the Iranians appear to be forcing the issue, and have said the funds will help with the country’s reconstruction after the devastation wrought by US-Israeli bombing raids.

Three M’s

Independent news organization Drop Site says that Iran is now setting its own terms for ending the war as President Trump’s narrative on negotiations flails. One Iranian analyst has said that Tehran believes it has the three M’s on its side: “munitions, markets, and the midterms.”

The report cites Hassan Ahmadian, a well-known Iranian analyst and associate professor at the University of Tehran, who explains: “The Iranians are saying time is working in our favor for the three Ms: munitions, markets, and the midterms. These three Ms help Iran in its position and weaken US positions.”

“Obviously in the U.S., they want something to say, ‘We squeezed Iran and we got this.’ My perception is that the Iranians are keen to deny the United States that – they wouldn’t give what Trump wants as a victory,” he added.

A separate Iranian official, privy to negotiations and so remaining anonymous, stated: “We’re currently moving forward with our own design, and we feel continuing negotiations doesn’t make sense until the U.S. government lifts the maritime blockade.”

“The scope of the conflict has expanded, and naturally the issue is no longer purely nuclear,” the official added. Indeed, the latest proposal for ceasefire out of Tehran focuses on the US Navy ending its blockade, and leaves the nuclear issue for future consideration, given it has proven an impasse in the prior Islamabad talks.

But Washington as been asserting its own leverage:

New reporting from Bloomberg shows Iran has 22 more days of available storage.

“The Islamic Republic has enough unused storage capacity to last another 12 to 22 days, Kpler analysts wrote in a report Monday.”

But even more importantly, they highlighted the time horizon until…

— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) April 28, 2026

‘Tank Tops’ Loom

President Trump explained – in his own inimitable manner – what we described last week: time is running out for Tehran… as oil blockade stalls the flow state of Iran’s economy permanently… 

Trump told Fox News on Sunday that the US blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports is putting major pressure on the country’s export infrastructure: 

“When you have, you know, lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships, which has happened to them — they have no ships because of the blockade — what happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth.”

“It’s something that happens where it just explodes. And they say they only have about three days left before that happens. And when it explodes, you can never, regardless, you can never rebuild it the way it was.”

As Hugh Hendry noted, time is running out for Iran:

“Iran’s oil system is not built to pause. It’s built to flow. It’s a flow system.

Oil cannot simply sit in the ground while strategists argue over maps and how much uranium dust to give over. It has to move. Iran and its system has to move continuously from the rock underground to the tanker in the harbor to the Chinese buyer in Asia.

Pause long enough, and the whole machine breaks.

Interrupt that flow. And the problem isn’t just lost revenues of like forty, fifty, sixty billion dollars. It’s the least of your concerns. The problem is physical and is irreversible.

Because when you suddenly shut the well, remember there’s no physical storage. They pump, they load, they ship.

If they can’t load, if they can’t ship, they can’t pump. And when you suddenly shut the wells, the pressure underground drops fucking fast. 

Do you know what happens?

The heavy, sticky crap in the oil, it gums up, gums up in the tiny holes within the rocks and becomes like glue. It traps the oil. It makes it really fucking hard to extract. And once that damage is done, it’s permanent. You lose a big chunk of the oil. 

The more Iran is actively either through theater or through bluff, the more that it sits in a standoff, the more it is actively destroying the one thing that it actually depends upon. 

That’s the trap. And you’re not reading in in the press, but you’re damn well reading it on your screens.

Because this is where the gap between the narrative of the media and the price stops being subtle and irrelevant, and it’s why stock markets have priced something entirely differently.

The Iranian system, the adversary, cannot afford to stay disrupted without hurting itself. That’s what’s in the equity market’s price.”

We covered the timeline for ‘tank tops’ here in detail – less than 15 days before shut-ins begin.

Tehran Won’t Talk Without JD Vance Present

The failed second round of Pakistan talks, which fell apart before they even began, was supposed to see Vice President JD Vance heading up the US side. This was reportedly something the Iranian side desired to see, and is likely still what its negotiating team would rather be dealing with. On the other hand, per Drop Site, “Iran has total disdain for Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and views him as both oblivious of diplomatic processes and totally ignorant of technical issues.”

This is because “Kushner is viewed by Iran as Israel’s man at the table.” This has led to the following view and alleged conclusion: “Iran, the senior official said, does not see any reason to deal with these two without a figure like Vice President JD Vance present.”

Bombs have grown quiet across the Gulf amid the extended ceasefire, with the exception that fighting in southern Lebanon still rages, despite the US-mediated ‘Lebanon ceasefire’:

⚡️Hezbollah publishes footage of them striking 2 Merkava tanks belonging to the Israeli army in southern Lebanon with FPV drones pic.twitter.com/daqtTEqA4q

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 27, 2026

Last week as an avalanche of headlines said that a second round of talks were imminent, and after the Iranian foreign minister had already landed in Islamabad for bilateral discussions with Pakistani mediators, there were premature reports that Vance was en route to Islamabad. The mainstream media claimed that it was Iran essentially begging Washington for negotiations. “But Vance, it turned out, was not on a plane, and Iran continued to deny it had any intention of meeting with U.S. officials in Pakistan,” Drop Site underscores.

Rosneft’s sprawling oil refinery in southern port town of Tuapse has been struck by Ukrainian drones once again, unleashing a huge fire and significant destruction, in what marks the third such attack just this month.

“Another serious incident has occurred in Tuapse. A large-scale fire broke out at an oil refinery due to an enemy drone attack,” Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram, amid large-scale evacuations of the civilian population from the area.

Regional aviation hubs in nearby Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, and Sochi were closed as a result of the blaze which sent a large black smoke plume into the air stretching for at least 100km, regional reports indicate.

“For the safety of residents living near the refinery, evacuations are underway. A temporary accommodation center has been set up at local School No. 6. I urge residents to follow all recommendations,” the regional government statement continued.

According to Ukrainian media:

The Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel CyberBoroshno reported that at least four tanks were burning at the refinery following the strike.

“If in previous attacks the tank farm was hit, this time the refinery itself was directly targeted… There is a possibility that the fire could spread to neighboring tanks,” the report said.

Reuters says that as a result of the several waves of attacks on Tuapse, operations at the plant have remained halted since April 16 – which was the first big strike of the month.

One is left wondering, what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:

“Intensive efforts are underway” to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: “As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time.”

Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken “at an appropriate level.”

The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.

Rusya’nın Tuapse Petrol Rafinerisi, düzenlenen dron saldırısı sonucu yeniden alev aldı. Görüntülerde, önceki saldırılardan sağlam kalan yeni depolama tanklarının isabet alarak patladığı görülüyor. pic.twitter.com/HLc61fGH8B

— The Bitig (@thebitig) April 28, 2026

The attacks have made parts of the sky black and the aftermath poses a safety risk for residents, also with reports of ‘toxic rain’ over the town, as the environmental situation spiraling – also with significant amounts of crude said to be leaking into the Black Sea.

Currently the globe’s attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

UBS consumer analyst Michael Lasser told clients that a further rise in e-commerce penetration, from about 22% today to as high as 27%, could force the closure of 40,000 U.S. retail stores by 2030.

The warning comes as more than 10,000 stores have closed since late 2023, and shows how the shift to e-commerce is pressuring brick-and-mortar retail footprints nationwide.

Lasser’s forecast is that e-commerce penetration rates in the U.S. will top 27% by the end of the decade, up from the current 22%.

Many of the projected closures will be across clothing, consumer electronics, home furnishings, office supplies, and sporting goods.

The advent of the internet and e-commerce has certainly put pressure on retail stores over the last two decades.

Also, the analysts point out the population winter that Elon Musk has warned about. The lack of a robust new consumer segment will put pressure on the consumer economy in the decades ahead. 

However, stores will continue to play a central role in retail ecosystems.

Big-box retailers have accounted for much of the growth in retail footprint.

The forecasted loss of 40,000 retail stores by the end of the decade would have a meaningful impact on the labor market and commercial real estate. Also, this is yet more evidence that the death of mom-and-pop retailing will accelerate. 

Professional subscribers can read the full U.S. Retail note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Trump’s blockade is having a predictable effect on Iran’s economy and oil industry, with reports that the regime is scrambling to repurpose old and rusty tankers as floating storage.  Kharg Island is hitting capacity and the results could lead to disaster for Iran’s oil wells. 

The regime is reportedly moving to expand crude storage at the island, where around 90% of their energy exports are processed, by reactivating a 30-year-old crude carrier called M/T Nasha.  It’s a bad sign for Iran, indicating that the country’s main oil hub is nearing its onshore storage limit.  Maritime analysts say the vessel, which had been anchored empty for years, is being repositioned as floating storage to absorb crude that still has to move out of the system. 

To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement. She’s a 30yo VLCC that’s been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/jFhq2xP0mU

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 23, 2026

But how much time will decommissioned tankers buy Iran?  Current estimates indicate Kharg Island has roughly 13 million barrels of spare onshore storage remaining at the terminal, while net inflows are running at about 1.0 million to 1.1 million barrels per day.  At that pace, storage could be filled in about 12 to 13 days, which places the saturation point in late April to early May if current flows hold.  A large tanker gives them another potential 2 million barrels of capacity.  In other words, not much. 

This data is a near match to JP Morgan’s recent assessment that Iran has between 20 – 26 days of capacity (including emergency measures) before they hit the wall and are forced to shut down their oil fields. 

Trump’s assertion on Sunday that Iran’s oil infrastructure may “explode in three days” due to the blockade might be a bit optimistic, but with the threat of overcapacity it is likely that the Iranians will be forced to the negotiating table in the near term.

The regime’s only other option is to divert the oil away from Kharg to the Jask Oil Terminal at Kooh Mobarak using the Goreh-Jask pipeline.  But this storage is limited and may already be full.

There are also limited reports that Iran is increasing “flaring” at wells to burn off excess.  To keep wells operating safely (avoiding sudden shutdowns that can cause permanent geological issues), operators are flaring off excess associated gas (and possibly some liquid byproducts) at a heightened rate.

If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future.  Recovery is expensive and difficult. 

If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed.  Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. 

The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. 

There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks.  The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.      

Via Remix News,

Two young men, both adults, suspected of gang rape in an Airbnb in the France’s Décines-Charpieu (Rhône), have been released from custody, shocking the family of one of the victims.

The victim’s lawyer, David Metaxas, spoke on behalf of the victim’s relatives, who told LyonMag that the judge’s decision was “incomprehensible.” Not only have both men been released to roam freely in the streets, but the judge did not even issue a restriction on contact with the victim, which means the two men could approach her once again.

Last week, the two men, aged 20 and 21, were arrested for the rape involving the 12-year-old, as well as a 16-year-old girl who had allegedly led the younger victim to the apartment. After reportedly exchanging messages with the two young men via Snapchat, the teen encouraged her younger friend to come with her to the Airbnb. Alcohol and drugs were allegedly consumed, with an excessive amount of hard liquor given to the 12-year-old.

Falling unconscious, the younger victim recounted waking up “lying on a bed covered in blood,” before realizing what had happened, recounts Lyon Mag. It was when she turned her phone back on that her mother was able to geolocate her, allowing the police to intervene. She is said to have run away from her home in Givors before the incident.

However, now the perpetrators are free. The family of the 12-year-old says her safety and innocence were tossed aside from the get-go, with police allegedly not even asking her to file a complaint initially.

“They were very poorly received, as if they were a nuisance,” said David Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old. He pointed to a total lack of support and guidance, adding the very obvious and visible signs of rape suffered by the young girl.

“It is unacceptable that the form to file a complaint was not given to them by the police. It must be remembered that they were dealing with a young girl who had been deflowered, anally and orally penetrated, and who had wounds all over her body.”

Unfortunately, the 16-year-old girl and the accused men all stated that the girl was consenting. “Everyone agrees that she was consenting, or even that she was provoking, even though she is 12 years old and was completely drunk to the point of losing consciousness,” he said, adding that at the hearing, the girl was in an advanced state of shock.

“The lack of coercive measures concerning the suspects […] is incomprehensible,” stated Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old, as quoted by LyonMag. He added that the court has failed to demand any judicial supervision or even a restraining order on the alleged perpetrators.  

“They can, if they wish, contact and visit the young girl whenever they want,”  he warns.  “Therefore, there is total incomprehension, not to mention anger, on the part of the family.”

As for the young victim, she allegedly collapsed in the lawyer’s office upon hearing of the decision and was taken to the hospital. “She is in a state of total shock. She couldn’t utter a single word in my office. The justice system needs to take charge of this case very quickly,” he stated.

Metaxas insists he will not let the matter be and will be asking the public prosecutor that “a specialized service be put in charge of the investigation with the implementation of coercive measures to ensure the safety of this minor.”

The two men are still under investigation.

Read more here…

The US Air Force has reportedly opened an investigation into a fire that broke out over the weekend at RAF Fairford in the UK. Crucially, it is a key US-allied base hosting a US bomber unit carrying out strikes on Iran as part of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.

The fire started early Sunday inside an “old or disused building” at the airbase, a UK defense ministry spokesperson has said. The Pentagon is investigating alongside local partners: “An investigation has been initiated and is ongoing. More information will be released as it becomes available,” a statement said.

No injuries have been reported and officials said the blaze was quickly continued, with no further threat posed to the base and surrounding community. But it was clearly very large at one point, video evidence shows.

The US was permitted starting in March to use the base for Iran-related operations. The Telegraph describes further of the fire:

Several crews were deployed to the incident at RAF Fairford in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Footage taken overnight appears to show smoke billowing from what is claimed to be the base’s commissary, a shop that provides food and equipment. Other pictures from the scene show that the building’s roof collapsed as firefighters brought the blaze under control.

Authorities are suspicious there may have been some kind of act of sabotage at the base, given widespread local opposition to its us by American forces to bomb Iran.

There’s also been chatter of Irani-linked ‘terror cells’ in Europe. According to more from The Telegraph:

While some welcomed the arrival, there had been protests against the decision, with around 200 people gathered at the base on Saturday. Protesters held signs that read “No war on Iran”, “US out of British bases” and “Stop Trump’s deadly wars”.

The use of RAF Fairford halves the time US bombers need to spend in the air. Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to allow US troops to use the base prevented what would have been a 37-hour round trip from Missouri to Iran.

RAF Fairford remains among the few European bases capable of supporting long-range US bombers such as the B-52 and B-2, and thus is an important staging and logistics hub for the Pentagon.

Major fire reported at RAF Fairford overnight, a British airbase hosting a sizeable forward-deployed contingent of USAF bombers for Iran strikes.

The fire reportedly gutted a commissary building. pic.twitter.com/cveufpjC1t

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 26, 2026

Tensions have of late been strained between the US and UK over the Iran war, with PM Starmer dealing with a lot of domestic opposition, and Trump at the same time pressuring him to do more alongside the US in Iran and the Hormuz Strait.

If the fire was indeed arson, European authorities will likely look at the potential that it could have been Russia-linked, given widespread allegations of Moscow-backed sabotage operations in Europe and the UK, throughout the Ukraine war.

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s European nations would need to bolster standing militaries by at least 300,000 troops and significantly boost defense spending beyond 3.5 percent of gross domestic product – at least 250 billion euros – while reviving and integrating their industrial base to defend themselves against Russia without the United States.

And they’d need to do that fast, according to a 2025 joint analysis by European think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for World Economy.

They warn that even with 80,000 American soldiers and airmen stationed on 30 bases on the continent—and the United States’ capacity to rapidly deploy forces—Moscow will test NATO’s resolve “within three to 10 years.”

The once-inconceivable prospect of the United States withdrawing from NATO is now a possibility. President Donald Trump—never a fan of the 32-nation coalition the Pentagon has spearheaded since 1949—has called for a “very serious examining” of the alliance, after its members failed to respond to his appeal to assist in the Iran war or join the U.S. Navy’s Arabian Sea blockade of Iranian shipping. 

Trump has vowed Europeans could face a “reckoning” without American leadership and support. Such a departure would require unlikely congressional approval, but the president’s statements are sparking discussion on both sides of the Atlantic about a restructuring of the alliance that would require Europeans to shoulder more of NATO’s burden.

As widely reported, European allies are actively discussing and preparing for a “NATO minus U.S.” scenario. The idea originated in response to Trump’s demand for Europeans to bulk up support for Ukraine in fighting off Russia’s invasion, his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark, and his characterization of member states as “cowards” unlikely to uphold NATO’s commitments.

While Americans have questioned NATO’s post-Cold War resolve since former President Barack Obama’s administration, Europeans in turn have questioned Trump’s reliability in meeting treaty obligations. 

In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during the alliance’s 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries—roughly matching the percent of GDP the U.S. spends on its armed forces—and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements, such as cybersecurity, crisis response, and adapting roads, rail lines, bridges, and ports to military needs.

Muscle and Money

The Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis documents Europe’s armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million troops. In order to withstand a hypothetical Russian invasion, a European-only force would need 300,000 more infantry soldiers, or roughly 50 more brigades, than it had in 2025. It would need a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces with more than 1 million 155 mm shells—the minimum for three months of combat, the Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis states. 

That boost in manpower and armaments would exceed the current French, German, Italian, and British forces combined.

And that’s just ground forces.

To match Russian war-footing military production—even with Ukraine attrition—a Europe-only military would need collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units. Such an army would need to replace stationed U.S. forces and rotational deployments within the 65-mile Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, while also establishing bases in Moldova and Romania.

These are but a few of the challenges a “NATO minus the U.S.” would face, military analysts and international relations scholars told The Epoch Times. And as Europeans by necessity assumed a more robust posture on the continent, American forces would need to compensate for the loss of specialties and skills brought by their European allies.

“Non-U.S. NATO forces are well-trained and have some highly competent defense manufacturing industries,” said University of Miami professor of politics June Teufel Dreyer, a senior Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow and former U.S.–China Economic and Security Review commissioner. 

European giants such as Thales and Leonardo would “surely be attracted by the idea of more indigenous investment,” Dreyer said. But, she added, European defense contractors “also know the funds they need aren’t guaranteed” without orders from the U.S. military to, for instance, annually build 2,000 “long-range loitering munitions”—drones—to match Russia’s numbers.

“The French and the Germans build highly thought of diesel-electric submarines; Sweden produces great fighter planes,” Dreyer said.

But from a nuclear deterrent perspective, a U.S. departure from NATO is problematic. Dreyer pointed to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s June 2025 announcement that Britain would buy at least 12 U.S.-made F-35s to “enhance the interoperability of NATO defense” in its nuclear posture, since these jets would be the UK’s only nuclear deterrent beyond its submarine force. The stealth fighter is the first to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.

U.S. and European allies’ coordination in defense procurement and production “saves money and the R&D costs for the most advanced weapons,” she said, noting while the projected cost for the sixth-generation F-47 is $4.4 billion, but it is a shared NATO expense.

Specialties and Skills

If NATO ties are severed, the United States will no longer benefit from what retired Navy captain and Epoch Times contributor Carl Schuster calls “amazing capabilities that may prove essential in any conflict.” Those capabilities include aircraft and ship design, special ops, and regional know-how such as mountain operations capabilities and Arctic warfare expertise. 

However, many European military assets are aging, and it was only after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and Trump’s threats to pull the United States from the alliance—that leaders showed urgency to address the deficiencies, Schuster said.

He expressed doubts about Spain—which has refused to let the United States use bases on its mainland to attack Iran—and Turkey. 

“Spain has rejected any idea of its ground and air forces being committed to combat outside Spanish territory,“ he said. ”So their contribution to NATO defense is more statistical than real.”

Turkey has the alliance’s largest ground force, yet its “willingness to contribute to the defense of Greece, Bulgaria, and Eastern Europe” may be questionable, he said.

Middle East Forum Director Gregg Roman also questioned Turkey’s NATO commitment, in a September 2025 column in The Epoch Times, calling for “an urgent compartmentalization assessment” after Turkey made overtures to China and Iran during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. 

“Six months later,” he said in April, “that assessment is non-optional. You know, thinking about everything [NATO] is trying to put together—joint air missile defense planning—with an ally like Turkey that is functionally aligned with Iran and the [SCO] bloc that we’re opposing, they can’t be trusted.“

Read the rest here…

President Volodymyr Zelensky led Ukraine in a Sunday ceremony marking the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and used the occasion to call on the international community to take decisive action against what he called ongoing Russian “nuclear terrorism”.

There were various candlelight remembrance ceremonies in cities across Ukraine, and in the capital. Later echoing the statement on Telegram, Zelensky alleged the the Chernobyl site’s the New Safe Confinement structure – built with support from more than 40 countries – is under direct threat from Moscow’s aggression.

The 1986 explosion and Chernobyl core meltdown is widely considered to be among the largest man-made disasters in human history. Zelensky has been hyping that another could be around the corner given Moscow’s latest actions.

“Russian-Iranian Shahed drones constantly fly over the station, and one of them hit the confinement last year,” Zelensky said, warning that another disaster could be imminent. 

“The world must not allow this nuclear terrorism to continue, and the best way is to force Russia to stop its reckless attacks,” he then emphasized.

He described that protecting the Chernobyl site serves global interests and that the only way to guarantee safety is to force Russia to “stop its mad attacks.”

The warning followed a major aerial assault on Saturday in which Russia launched over 660 missiles and drones at Ukraine, targeting cities and areas nationwide, including strikes on civilian infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv.

Various international organizations say extreme danger for disaster persists, but Rosatom insists it has safety under control:

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, and Moldovan President Maia Sandu joined the commemorative events.

Commenting on damage to the shell, which the environmental group Greenpeace says raises the risk of a radioactive leak, Grossi said that “repairs should start as soon as possible and that leaving the situation as it is now is problematic.”

Any repairs to the massive metal outer structure, which may potentially take up to four years, are virtually impossible due to Russia’s invasion, according to Greenpeace.

Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom, the successor of the Soviet atomic energy ministry, which managed the facility, said: “To remember Chernobyl means to remember the people who bore the brunt of the disaster, and to take that experience into account in every decision we make today, to prevent a similar catastrophe.”

There was a very alarming 2025 incident where an explosive drone hit the protective containment shell of the defunct Chernobyl plant. However, emergency crews were able to make it to the impact site on the immense roof and make repairs. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides pointed the finger at the other for that attack.

Today marks 40 years since the Chernobyl disaster. On April 26, 1986, at 1:23 AM, a routine safety test spiraled into the worst nuclear disaster in history. pic.twitter.com/ioZFHTTNHh

— World of Engineering (@engineers_feed) April 26, 2026

Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war – and nuclear officials have been keenly aware of this possibility.

Authored by Arthur Schaper via American Greatness,

Viktor Orbán, the valiant populist, the restorer of the Christian faith in Hungary, the welcome thorn in the side of the EU establishment, and the strong ally of President Trump since his first bid for office, has lost his own re-election bid. I had a feeling it would come to this.

Sixteen years of uninterrupted administration as a strong force for conservative, right-wing nationalist populism have come to an end, at least with Orbán as the head of it.

Sometimes, voters have a strange fatigue when it comes to governments. Fourteen years of a “conservative” UK government ushered in the Labour Party in 2024. However, fatigue doesn’t explain Orbán’s crushing loss.

What set that off?

Corruption charges and the argument that his administration had looked the other way when sex abuse scandals broke out at a local school.

Economics reared its ugly head, as well, since the EU was cutting off its funding. Orbán’s supposed lack of judicial reforms, as well as his uniform check on EU policy, frustrated Brussels.

Orbán faced a crisis election, and inviting US VP JD Vance to campaign on his behalf didn’t help.

Why would Hungarian voters care what a foreign politician thinks? This desperate move only exacerbated how out of touch the Orbán government had become. Critics also saw him as too close to Russian “president” Vladimir Putin and unhelpful in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war. The EU had been waiting for this opportunity: an unpopular Orbán facing electoral collapse.

They were salivating for a post-Orbán Hungary, one that would stop its Christian restorationism, welcome more LGBT promotion, tolerate more spending, and open its borders.

Would the Orbán replacement accomplish their scheme?

His challenger, Péter Magyar, was trained and prepped as an Orbán acolyte.

In 2024, he broke from his party, but not over core policy. Magyar (whose name means “Hungarian,” for what it’s worth) campaigned to end corruption and restore good government in Hungary. He campaigned to the right of Orbán, calling for an end to importing cheap labor into the country. He campaigned on cracking down harder on immigration—illegal and mass—than the incumbent.

His message, if anyone was listening, wasn’t pro-EU. He was still asking the question: “What about us Hungarians?”

Supporters of the cultural restoration Right thought that Orbán was not getting the job done. Was he failing?

April 12, 2026, Magyar’s Tisza Party swept the elections: supermajority status, up to 140 out of 199 seats. Orbán won 56 seats, and another far-right party won the rest.

Sure, EU progressive elites celebrate Orbán’s loss, as did Barack Obama and George Soros. They view the downfall of Orbán as a harbinger for the end of Republican hegemony in Washington later this year.

Yet look again at the results of the Hungarian parliamentary elections. I mentioned three parties that won seats: three right-wing parties. Not one left-wing or centrist element came to power or won seats. A minimum threshold of five percent in the election results is required for a party to place. The left was shut out of the Hungarian Parliament.

The Right Wing won Hungary. Orbán may have lost his premiership, but Orbánism is standing strong.

This election focused on personalities, not principles.

Magyar is just as socially conservative as Orbán. He has already pledged to end the foreign permit workers. He wants to give Hungarians in other countries a chance to come back to their own country and thrive again. That’s about as “Hungary First” as it gets!

Magyar has already stated that he will not support fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership into the EU. Huge move for ending the Russo-Ukrainian war!

He announced a diversification plan for energy. Instead of relying predominantly on Russia, he wants to draw oil from the South and the West, as well. This sounds like real economic freedom for Hungary. National populism is great, but it must face economic realities. Too many right-wing populist governments are shoveling out money to voters for school supplies, raising families, and pensions. Where is the money supposed to come from? More taxes?! From whom?

Right-wing socialism is still . . . socialism, and Orbán had a problem here.

Eventually, the government runs out of others’ money, or inflation bites whatever purchasing power the government intended for the people. Inflation and tariff pressures weighed down Orbán’s reelection chances.

Orbán’s Hungary was still not the perfect social conservative paradise for other reasons. Prostitution is still legal. Abortion is also still legal. While countries need to encourage their native populations to bear children, that vision will collapse in the face of easy sex and no responsibility. Cultural norms need reinforcement, with no tolerance for deviance.

Orbán and his party imposed vaccine passports and health mandates during COVID. How is this good for the working public? Where is the freedom? Too much state-sponsored anything is bad for a country.

Even now, Hungarians cannot own a gun without passing strict government demands. Czechia made self-defense a right, and in Switzerland everyone owns a gun (though it’s registered with the state).

Throughout his tenure, Orbán strengthened ties with China, joining the deceptive Belt and Road initiative. He even allowed Chinese police to operate in his country! American citizens voiced righteous outrage when the local press exposed former New York City mayor Eric Adams for allowing a CCP-run police station in the Big Apple. Yet no one on the Right complained about Orbán allowing CCP Hungary? That’s wrong.

There’s room for improvement, and Magyar has the opportunity to exceed Orbán’s victories while correcting his mistakes.

He is already doubling down on stopping mass migration!

He is committed to putting all Hungarians first, and he is fighting for the rights of ethnic Hungarians in other countries.

Magyar must revive and restore Hungary’s economy. One can hope he will place his country in a better position to profit without dependence and root out undue Chinese influence.

In a media masterstroke, he appeared on state television to discuss his plans for the country. Without missing a beat, he dressed down the reporter interviewing him, castigating the news organization for not allowing him on their program over the last year and a half. He then scolded them for lying about him and his family.

Then came the coup de grace: he announced his government plan to cut their funding and shut them down. Hungary needs honest independent media, he said, not government-funded agitprop that would inspire envy in Joseph Goebbels or North Korea.

He is not hostile to Putin, but he will not engage him aggressively either: sounds a lot like Trump!

He will not participate in the EU migration pact. He is keeping up the border fences, but he has also pledged to find a way for the EU to release the funds that the country needs, too.

He is making inroads with his Slavic neighbors, including the more populist, nationalist leaders in Slovakia and Czechia.

Magyar reminds me of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He isn’t just talking the national populist talk. He is walking the walk, and he is sprinting ahead with major reforms.

Orbán was T-800. Magyar may well be T-1000, and the EU Left is going to find that he will be worse for their globalist, leftist, secularist agenda.