Authored by Jim Bovard

A few presidencies ago, Washington politicians used boundless political and intellectual chicanery to drag America into a ruinous war. Thousands of Americans died and scores of thousands of Iraqis perished due to the official myth of Saddam Hussein as the twentieth hijacker.

Last November, Axios published new damning information on the role of Saudi government officials in bankrolling the 9/11 attacks on New York City and the Pentagon. Private lawsuits against the Saudi regime “unearthed evidence showing one Saudi official—who acknowledges aiding two men who became hijackers—made a drawing of a plane and a mathematical formula that allegedly could have been used to fly into the World Trade Center.” That was only the latest stunning revelation in a coverup that will celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday this year.

In 2002 and early 2003, the W. Bush administration rushed to exploit 9/11 to justify invading Iraq. But there was a problem with that con job. A 2002 FBI memo stated that there was “incontrovertible evidence that there is support for these [9/11 hijacker] terrorists within the Saudi Government.” A joint House-Senate congressional investigation found extensive evidence that the Saudi government, not Saddam Hussein, propelled the hijackers. The Bush administration succeeded in suppressing the key twenty-eight pages of that congressional report on the Saudi role on 9/11. 

The late Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC) became a leading proponent of declassifying those twenty-eight pages, declaring in 2013:

“If the 9/11 hijackers had outside help—particularly from one or more foreign governments—the press and the public have a right to know what our government has or has not done to bring justice to all of the perpetrators.”

Those twenty-eight page were finally released (mostly) in 2016, revealing how Saudi government officials directly financed and provided diplomatic cover for several of the hijackers in the United States shortly before they unleashed havoc.

Truth delayed is truth defused. Blocking the evidence of the Saudi bankrolling of 9/11 enabled the Bush administration to kill tens of thousands of Iraqis.

The Bush administration sold the Iraq war as payback for 9/11. While false claims by President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) have received ample coverage, the Bush Saudi-Iraqi Bait-and-Switch has faded into memory.

In a memo Bush sent on March 18, 2003, notifying Congress that he was launching a war against Iraq, Bush declared that he was acting “to take the necessary actions against international terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations, or persons who planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001.”

Bush invoked this justification even though his administration had never offered a shred of evidence tying Saddam to 9/11. Bush and team continually threw out new accusations and then backed off, knowing that few people were paying close enough attention to recognize that previous charges had collapsed like a houses of cards.

In the first months after 9/11, there was little mention of Iraq in the public pronouncements by Bush and his top officials. But in his State of the Union address on January 29, 2002, Bush stunned many people by announcing that Iraq, along with Iran and North Korea, were part of an “axis of evil.” Since the Global War on Terror had stratospheric support levels in the polls from the American people, the best way to sanctify a war against Iraq was to redefine it as part of the Global War on Terror. Bush declared on September 25, 2002:

“Al Qaeda hides, Saddam doesn’t, but the danger is, is that they work in concert. The danger is that al Qaeda becomes an extension of Saddam’s madness and his hatred and his capacity to extend weapons of mass destruction around the world…You can’t distinguish between al Qaeda and Saddam when you talk about the war on terror. They’re both equally as bad, and equally as evil, and equally as destructive.”

The next day, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld announced that the United States possessed “bulletproof” evidence linking Saddam and Al Qaeda. But it was a bullet that could never be exposed to sunlight. An earlier alleged link between Iraqi agents and hijacker Mohamed Atta meeting in Prague had collapsed, with the story disavowed by both the CIA and the Czech government.

On October 7, 2002, Bush, speaking to a selective audience of Republican donors in Cincinnati, laid out his logic:

“We know that Iraq and the Al Qaida terrorist network share a common enemy—the United States of America. We know that Iraq and Al Qaida have had high-level contacts that go back a decade…And we know that after September the 11th, Saddam Hussein’s regime gleefully celebrated the terrorist attacks on America.”

The fact that some Iraqis cheered the carnage on September 11 proved Saddam could team up with Al Qaeda for a second 9/11.

The link between Saddam and Al Qaeda then took a three-month recess, returning in the 2003 State of the Union address, when Bush declared that “Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of Al Qaeda.” Bush reached for the ultimate hot button:

“Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein. It would take one vial, one canister, one crate slipped into this country to bring a day of horror like none we have ever known.”

Three days later, when Bush was directly asked by a journalist at a White House press conference, “Do you believe that there is a link between Saddam Hussein, a direct link, and the men who attacked on September the 11th?” Bush replied, “I can’t make that claim.” Yet, that did not stop him from endlessly making the inference.

But the Bush administration’s new “evidence” failed the laugh test. The Los Angeles Times revealed:

“The Bush administration’s renewed assertions of links between Iraq and Al Qaeda are based largely on the murky case of a one-legged Al Qaeda suspect who was treated in Baghdad after being wounded in the war in Afghanistan.”

Time noted of Bush’s message on Saddam and Al Qaeda:

“If there was no visible evidence to link the two, he just used that fact to argue his point: the danger is everywhere, even if we can’t see it; the threat is growing, even if we can’t prove it. The Administration’s argument for war is based not on the strength of America’s Intelligence but on its weakness.”

In the days after 9/11, when pollsters asked Americans who they thought had carried out the 9/11 attacks, only 3% of respondents suggested Iraq or Saddam Hussein as culprits. But by February 2003, 72% of Americans believed that Hussein was “personally involved in the September 11 attacks.” Shortly before the March 2003 invasion, almost half of all Americans believed that “most” or “some” of the 9/11 hijackers were Iraqi citizens. Only 17% of respondents knew that none of the hijackers were Iraqis. 73% believed that Saddam “is currently helping al-Qaeda.”

American soldiers were hit with more concentrated doses of propaganda than private citizens. A 2006 poll of American troops revealed that 85% believed the U.S. mission sought “to retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9/11 attacks.” That belief likely helped spur some of atrocities against Iraqi civilians by U.S. troops.

U.S. intelligence agencies always knew that the Saddam-9/11 link was a political concoction by pro-war politicians. In July 2004, the Senate Intelligence Committee issued a 511-page report that recognized that the CIA accurately concluded that “to date there was no evidence proving Iraqi complicity or assistance” in the 9/11 attacks. The report noted that the CIA’s accurate judgments on Saddam, Al Qaeda, and the non-link to 9/11 “were widely disseminated [prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq], though an early version of a key CIA assessment was disseminated only to a limited list of Cabinet members and some sub-Cabinet officials in the administration.”

Neither George Bush nor Dick Cheney were ever held liable for their lies that led to carnage in Iraq. Perhaps that is the biggest lesson that Washington policymakers take from the Iraq War.

On the campaign trail in 2016, Donald Trump sounded as if he recognized the vast folly of invading Iraq to topple Saddam. But Trump’s promise to “end the endless wars” seems like a hundred years ago. An Associated Press poll last month found that 56% of Americans believed that Trump had already “gone too far” with his military interventions abroad. But will pro-war politicians and political appointees fabricate new pretexts to attack Iran or elsewhere?

Across much of the world, long-standing norms around marriage and family formation are changing.

In many countries, having children outside of marriage has become increasingly common, while in others it remains rare.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, shows countries ranked by the share of children born outside of marriage using the latest available data from the OECD Family Database.

Latin America Leads by a Wide Margin

Colombia leads with 87% of children born outside marriage, followed by Chile, Costa Rica, and Mexico—all above 70%.

In much of the region, cohabitation has long been socially accepted and legally recognized, reducing the importance of formal marriage. Historical inequality and lower access to legal institutions have also played a role in shaping these patterns over time.

Nordic Countries Redefine Family Norms

Several Nordic countries also report high shares of non-marital births, including Iceland (69%), Norway (61%), Sweden (58%), and Denmark (55%).

Unlike Latin America, these trends are closely tied to strong welfare states and legal protections for children regardless of parents’ marital status. Cohabiting couples often enjoy rights similar to married ones, making marriage a personal choice rather than an economic necessity.

Lower Rates Persist in Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean

At the other end of the spectrum are countries such as Japan (2.4%), Korea (4.7%), Türkiye (3.1%), Israel (8.6%), and Greece (9.7%). In these societies, marriage remains closely linked to childbearing due to cultural expectations, religious traditions, and legal frameworks.

Social stigma and limited support for single parents further discourage having children outside of marriage.

Anglo and Western European Countries Sit in the Middle

Countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and much of Western Europe fall between these extremes. Around 40% of children in the U.S. are born outside marriage, a similar share to Austria and Italy.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World Has Passed Peak Child on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

BRACKETTVILLE, Texas—The chaos caused by millions of illegal immigrants flooding across the southwest border under the Biden administration left scars on this border town.

​The constant high-speed chases, buzzing helicopters, screaming emergency sirens, hurried school lockdowns, torn barbed-wire fences, and decomposing bodies on ranches and along the Rio Grande all took their toll on Texas towns near the Mexican border.

​The border crisis drained resources and changed the lifestyle of Brackettville, a little town with two traffic light intersections in Kinney County. Residents of the county and beyond said the madness stopped almost overnight after President Donald Trump took office.​

Now they say the chaos of illegal immigration has just moved into the country’s interior to places that include Minnesota.

Illegal border crossings plummeted to record lows after Trump took office. In fiscal year 2025, Customs and Border Protection reported 443,000 encounters at the southwest border with Mexico.

In 2024, that number stood at a little less than 2.5 million.

​‘Back to Mayberry’

Kinney County Sheriff Brad Coe estimated that 30,000 to 40,000 people per year moved through the county in 2022 and 2023.

​Images of illegal immigrants were caught on game cameras meant to give ranchers photos of deer and wildlife on their property, which allowed Coe to estimate the traffic.

​“If we hadn’t stepped up when we did in the way we did—I think it would totally destroy the county, had the wave of illegal immigrants continued,” he told The Epoch Times.

​Brackettville sits north of the Border Patrol checkpoint on U.S. Route 57 past Eagle Pass and west of the Uvalde checkpoint, making it an ideal location for gotaways, or illegal immigrants who evade capture.

​“It’s really a geographical thing with the checkpoint locations to some degree,” Brent Smith, Kinney County attorney, told The Epoch Times.

​The area attracted state and national attention as a hot spot for high-speed chases involving smugglers during the border crisis.

​The depth of the problem along the smuggling corridor was the subject of an Epoch Times documentary: “Gotaways: The Hidden Border Crisis.”

​But now, ranchers are not spending all their time repairing fences, picking up dumpsters full of discarded water bottles and clothing, or worrying about who might walk out of the brush.

​They no longer have to black out their windows in fear that the light will attract unwanted nighttime visitors. Families are once again accompanying hunters to their deer leases, Smith said.

​“So, it’s kind of back to Mayberry,” Coe told The Epoch Times, referring to the idyllic small town featured in the 1960s TV series “The Andy Griffith Show.”

​Matt Benacci, a school board member for Brackett Independent School District, said life has returned to normal at the district’s K–12 campuses as well.

​School lockdowns have all but stopped, he told The Epoch Times.

​During the border crisis, schools would sometimes have to lock down two times per day because of smugglers bailing out of vehicles and running on foot through the town, he said.

A car of gotaways once jumped the curb onto school grounds and the occupants fled, and one illegal immigrant tried the gym doors to get inside the school, he said.

​Brackett Independent School District placed giant stones along the perimeter of its schools to serve as barricades to protect against future incidents.

Those kinds of chases turned deadly for residents because it sapped their town’s resources.

Smith recalls two instances during the mass migration in which Kinney County residents suffered life-threatening medical emergencies when their resources were dispatched to crashes involving smugglers.

“If we have, like, a huge crash or pursuit, 20 miles, 25 miles north of town, all of our resources are out there,” he said.

​If an ambulance had been available on a fateful day in 2024, perhaps Benacci’s mother might still be alive.

​“I try not to dwell on it because the only thing you can do is get really angry,” Benacci said, his voice breaking, eyes pricking with tears.

​Gloria Benacci, who was in her 70s, died two years ago after suffering a stroke, he said.

​The local ambulance crew was not available because it was responding to a deadly crash involving illegal immigrants. Likewise, rescue helicopters were tied up, he recalled.

​State troopers chased a vehicle containing a U.S. citizen and several illegal immigrants in early March 2024. The vehicle rolled over, throwing people from the truck. Four died.

With local emergency services tied up, an ambulance from Uvalde, about 40 miles away, was dispatched for Benacci’s mother and arrived in about an hour.

​It took another couple of hours to get her to a hospital in San Antonio. She never recovered the ability to breathe on her own, he said, and she passed away on March 13, 2024.

​“Once an ambulance is dispatched out there to something like that, you can’t divert them to something else,” he said, referring to the illegal immigrant crash.

Larger border cities were not spared, either.

​In Eagle Pass, Fire Chief Manuel Mello said his department received as many as six calls per day for drownings along the Rio Grande in 2022. In 2025, the number dropped to about six for the entire year, he said.

Now, ​emergency calls to the Rio Grande and those involving foreign nationals have dropped by 95 percent,  he said.

​“Once the new administration came in, things started to slow down significantly,” he said. “We were getting calls almost every day to the river’s edge, and right now, I don’t think we’ve had one call in the last two, three months.”

​Things were so bad for a while that he had a designated crew just for responding to calls to the river’s edge. It would get multiple calls and, at times, get overwhelmed, he said.

​People trying to ride the trains into the United States often incurred horrific injuries or death, he said. Many had their limbs crushed or amputated in the doors that would slide shut as the train moved.

​“We were seeing a lot of amputations, a lot of decapitations, a lot of injuries,” he said.

​Mass migration strained the entire medical system, he said. Emergency medical services and the hospital system were overwhelmed, according to him.

​“There was a point where we were waiting 45 minutes to an hour outside, waiting for a bed,” he said.​ “So right now, I guess my guys are breathing a little easier.”

Border Scars

​Wanda Selby, 88, said she no longer feels the need to carry her Smith and Wesson .38 revolver when she goes on walks with her dog, Lady.

​“They’re just not coming through like they were,” she told The Epoch Times as she ambled among the towering live oaks in Red Bridge Park.

​Selby told The Epoch Times that in 2022, she decided to forgo her frequent walks alone after striking up a conversation with a young Texas highway patrolman.

​He was parked along a rural road near a friend’s ranch where she liked to walk. The lawman told her that a .38 would not help her because human smugglers, or coyotes, working for the Mexican cartels carried AK-47s.

​“‘You don’t want to let anybody know you have a gun, because they have a bigger gun,’” she recalled him saying.

​She opted to walk in her neighborhood afterward.

​In 2022 and 2023, it was common to hear helicopters buzzing overhead in her neighborhood. Sometimes illegal immigrants on the run would come onto people’s porches, she recalled.

​Border Patrol agents and state troopers frequently combed her neighborhood.

​“It was a nightmare down here,” she said. “[Former President Joe] Biden, he didn’t just let them in—he welcomed murderers, drug dealers, anybody that wanted to come in. They were not vetted at the border.”

Damage to Ranches

Ben Binnion, 39, is a wildlife biologist who manages thousands of acres of ranchland outside of Eagle Pass across from the Mexican border.

​Beginning in 2021, the ranch became a superhighway for human traffickers, suffering at least $350,000 in damages, he said.

​Many illegal immigrants would walk around the checkpoint east of Eagle Pass, with some using Farm Road 481, which is near the ranch, to head north.

Read the rest here…

During a Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee hearing this week, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) confronted Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison. The Missouri Republican exposed Ellison’s ties to the Feeding Our Future scandal, where fraudsters stole $250 million in federal child nutrition funds. 

Hawley didn’t hold back, charging the Democrat with protecting fraudsters who funneled cash to terrorists and traffickers, as well as Ellison’s own campaign coffers, and telling him he “ought to be in jail.”

THERE IT IS 🚨 Official Hearing where Senator Josh Hawley confronts Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison about meeting with and taking campaign donations from Somali fraudsters stealing billions

He personally called and BLOCKED THE INVESTIGATIONS

Josh Hawley “Are you… pic.twitter.com/i40Ow5V9Zz

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) February 12, 2026

Hawley opened the confrontation by spotlighting $10,000 in campaign donations Ellison pocketed from players in the Feeding Our Future mess, which the New York Post broke last year, detailing how the money flowed in right after a December 11, 2021, meeting at Ellison’s office.

Ellison repeatedly denied it, calling it a false statement. But Hawley read directly from the meeting transcript, where money was discussed repeatedly. 

 An audio recording of that meeting revealed that Ellison met with members of the Somali community who were later convicted in the scandal. In the recording, the individuals ask Ellison for help securing funding before discussing campaign donations. 

“The only way that we can protect what we have is by inserting ourselves into the political arena,” a man is heard saying on the audio.

“Putting our votes where it needs to be. But most importantly, putting our dollars in the right place. And supporting candidates that will fight to protect our interests.”

“That’s right,” Ellison replied.

Ellison accepted $10,000 in campaign contributions from the fraudsters mere days later, as did his son, Minneapolis councilman Jeremiah Ellison.

Hawley proceeded to read from that recording, quoting Ellison’s own words back to him.

“Send me the names of all these folks who are investigating them,” Ellison said. He promised to call the Education Department and ask what was going on. “I already have my team working on this,” he told them, according to the transcript. “What day should we get together to discuss it again?”

Ellison pledged repeatedly to help them fight the investigators.

“You have my attention. I’m concerned about this,” he said. “Let’s go fight these people.”

“Why’d you do it? Was it worth it?” Hawley asked.

“This is what accountability looks like, of which you’ve had none,” Hawley countered.

“You helped fraudsters defraud your state and this government of $9 billion, and you got a fat campaign contribution out of it. You ought to be indicted. That’s the truth.”

Ellison shot back hard. He denied the donations flat-out: “a lie” and “No donations came.” He insisted, “You’re completely wrong. … I did not see anybody.” Hawley countered with video proof of their nearly hour-long sit-down—easy to find online. Ellison dismissed Hawley’s quotes as “cherry-picked.”

As the exchange got heated, Ellison repeatedly talked over Hawley, which the senator didn’t appreciate. “It’s my hearing, pal,” he snapped.

“Don’t call me ‘pal,’” Ellison shot back.

“Well, I should call you a prisoner because you ought to be in jail.” 

He demanded resignation. Ellison flipped it: “I was thinking the same thing about you.”

Hawley didn’t stop there. He brought up testimony from the previous day showing where the fraudulent money went: to terrorist groups, transnational criminal organizations, drug trafficking, and child trafficking. “You took $10,000 and helped them do it,” he said. Ellison kept denying everything, but Hawley had receipts. 

He cited a Minnesota Star Tribune report that Partners in Nutrition raised concerns with the attorney general’s office in 2018 and 2019, but Ellison did nothing. The New York Post reported that Ellison accepted campaign donations from individuals linked to the fraud after meeting with them.

“You’ve been right at the center of this fraud thing from the beginning, and you’ve enabled it,” Hawley said. “You should resign.”

Ellison shot back, “And, sir, you should resign. I was thinking the same thing about you.” 

Authored by Scott Pinsker via PJMedia.com,

So, barmaid, bring a pitcher, another round of brew

Honey, why don’t we get drunk and screw?

– Jimmy Buffett, Why Don’t We Get Drunk (and Screw)

It’s not just sex: Alcohol consumption has dropped by 54%, with youth (18 to 34) drinking falling ANOTHER 9% just between 2023 and 2025.

From TIME magazine’s article, “Why Gen Z is Drinking Less”:

[R]esearch from the National Institute on Drug Abuse shows that lifetime drinking, past month drinking, and past year drinking among young people began to decline around the year 2000. That means that such declines have especially impacted Generation Z, defined as anyone born from 1997 to 2012, and some Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996.

[…]

“It is becoming clear that, for whatever reasons, today’s younger generations are just less interested in alcohol and are more likely than older generations to see it as risky for their health and to participate in periods of abstinence like Dry January,” said National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism George F. Koob in a statement.

Maybe that’s not coincidental. Perhaps there’s a causal link (as famed philosopher Jimmy Buffett suggested). Maybe, just like peanut butter and jelly are complementary products, sex and alcohol are, too.

Koob seemed to agree with Buffett:

Another contributing factor has to do with the changing socialization patterns of younger generations. “Alcohol tends to be a social drug, even for young people, so part of the decline in underage drinking could be related to less in-person socializing,” said Koob. On average, the amount of time people spent with friends in-person decreased from 30 hours a month in 2003 to 10 hours a month in 2020, according to the U.S. Surgeon General’s advisory on the epidemic of loneliness. That decline was especially marked for people aged 15 to 24. 

Back in 1991, more than half — 54.1% of all high school students — were sexually active. (The other 45.9% lied about it.)

By 2007, the number fell to 47.8%. Four years later, it dropped again to 43%. By 2017, it was just 39.5%.

As of 2023, it’s 31.6%.

What’s going on with kids today, with their wild, out-of-control abstinence and crazy teetotalling?!

It’s one of the strangest, most inexplicable cultural shifts in recent memory. I was certainly blindsided: I figured our sex drive was so biologically ingrained, it would never go away!

But it has. And with it, so has the U.S. birthrate: It’s now at a 40-year low.

We need a birthrate of 2.1 babies per woman to maintain our population. We’re currently at 1.6.

For decades, our shrinking birthrate was masked by immigration growth. In 1991, the U.S. population was 253 million. By 2025, it grew to 343.6 million. 

Since 2020, immigration has been the #1 driver of American population growth. 

With the new crackdown on illegal immigration, we’re flirting with our first-ever population decline. And it’s not just an American phenomenon — all over the world, birthrates have collapsed.

At least one geopolitical strategist and demographic expert predicts it’ll lead to the end of China within the next 10 years:

And three months ago, the Chinese government updated the data. They’re now reporting a 70% drop in the birthrate since 2017. That’s a faster decline than what was suffered by the Jews of Europe during the Holocaust. 

And the Shanghai Academy of Sciences, which is kind of the Wiseman organization of statisticians in China that interprets all the data, says that this is still wrong. They estimate that the Chinese system has overestimated its population by over 100 million people. With all of the missing millions being people who would’ve been born during the one-child era, which is a rather sterile way of saying that all the missing millions are under age 40 suggesting that these yellow bars don’t even exist.

China has, at most, 10 years before it faces national dissolution. They will not be a unified industrialized nation state 10 years from now. [emphasis added]

—Peter Zeihan

So why aren’t young people drinking, hooking up, and having babies? How the heck did we go from Free Love to no love — and a hookup culture where nobody hooks up?

As with most cultural trends, there’s more than one root cause.

Smartphones are a contributing factor. At first, many experts predicted that dating apps and matchmaking sites would increase sexual activity. You could meet the next great love of your life while sitting in your bathrobe, drinking a cup of coffee, and scrolling on your phone. What could be easier than that?

But it sure hasn’t worked out that way. 

Perhaps it’s analysis paralysis: In a world with near-limitless dating options, it’s tough to make a decision and stick to it. And if social media has skewed your perception of reality, perhaps none of your real-life options are ever as appealing as the Photoshopped fantasies you see on Instagram. 

Or, perhaps, the BILLIONS of free “adult content” sites, videos, and stimuli are all you need to satisfy your sex drive. Why subject yourself to a real-life boyfriend/girlfriend and risk having your heart broken (or, since #MeToo, your reputation destroyed) when you can fantasize about someone different every single day?

I’ve got two teenage boys. I’ve heard how they talk around their friends: The fear of being “outed” for something they didn’t even do is a very real thing. 

You’re always one TikTok upload away from being a social pariah.

COVID could be a factor. We normalized being alone. The 15-year-old who wasn’t allowed to leave his house, go to school, or play with friends in 2020 is now 21. For a kid like that, hanging out in a bar with strangers is weird and creepy.

Either way, we’ve reached the point where loneliness is the #1 self-reported threat to Gen Z’s mental health:

Exclusive: Half of young people plagued by loneliness, family problems https://t.co/EyxNjYjSp7

— Axios (@axios) September 16, 2025

An additional factor might be the shift from alcohol to marijuana. We’ve gone from a drinking culture to a pot-smoking culture, with more Americans consuming marijuana than alcohol. 

In 1992, fewer than 1 million Americans used marijuana daily.

By 2012, it was 6 million.

Today, it’s 18 million.

The alcohol culture was ultra-extroverted: You went to bars, attended parties, met new people… and made horrible decisions ’round closing time. (And how!)

The marijuana culture is introverted: It’s something you do alone to placate your boredom.

None other than South Park succinctly explained this phenomenon:

A dark, misanthropic worldview is yet another factor: If you dislike humanity, you’re probably not inclined to prioritize the perpetuation of our species.

From NPR:

Does being more conservative mean having more kids? Several studies suggest that people in red states have more babies than those in blue states. And now a new report from a conservative-leaning group argues that that could have implications for politics and culture in the U.S. down the road.

[…]

[T]hese authors looked at young adults ages 25 to 35 who self-identify as liberal or conservative. They found that young liberal women today are much less likely to have children than young conservative women, with a gap of more than 30 percentage points. And that’s a big change since the 1980s, when there was a much smaller gap between liberal and conservative women. [emphasis added]

The political implications are obvious, both in the short term:

In the 2024 election, there was a remarkable correlation between a state’s fertility rate and the share voting for Trump!

The partisan gap around families continues to intensify. This also helps explain why Trump nearly won New Jersey! 🧵 https://t.co/CCM4xBlRAL pic.twitter.com/Bm4lhLiBis

— More Births (@MoreBirths) November 6, 2024

And in the long:

The analysis of reapportionment is even worse for Democrats.

Blue states losing 11 electoral college votes
Purple states gaining 1
Red States gaining 10 electoral college votes.

If Republicans hold North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, they win the presidency for a decade https://t.co/jh5xpJYehg

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) January 27, 2026

The final reason why kids aren’t having sex may be the biggest — but fortunately, it’s also the one we have the most societal control over: Sex leads to babies, and babies are REALLY expensive.

That wasn’t true when we were a rural society. If you were a farmer in the 1800s, kids were an economic asset: They were free labor that helped you be more productive.

The more, the merrier.

But in urban environments, kids are an economic liability. Kids cost $23,000 a year — and by age 18, that’s $414,000! 

Because of sky-high housing costs, the average age of a first-time homebuyer is 40 years old. For female homeowners, that’s not the best math for having babies.

If they can’t even afford their own home until they’re 40, how the heck are they ever gonna reach 2.1 kids?

Government policies that lower housing costs would go a long way to reversing this trend. We want young people to be able to afford their first home when they’re still in their 30s.

In the 1980s, the average age of a first-time homebuyer was the late 20s. (Made it a helluva lot easier to have multiple children.)

Vice President JD Vance connected the housing market to illegal immigration:

🇺🇸 VP VANCE: 30 MILLION ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS PUSHED HOUSING COSTS THROUGH THE ROOF

“A lot of young people are saying housing is way too expensive.

Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants who were taking houses that all by right go to… https://t.co/v4Grpae3z9 pic.twitter.com/l52OY0hcSe

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 13, 2025

So did the Department of Homeland Security:

“Rent is too high!”

There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

“Groceries cost too much!”

There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

“There aren’t enough jobs!”

There are tens of millions of criminal illegals in our country.

“Women…

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) November 20, 2025

There is no magic bullet solution, alas. No single law or policy change will reverse this no-nookie trend. But that’s to be expected; a problem with multiple causes requires multiple solutions.

It can’t be any one thing; it must be many different things.

Because, if it turns out the biggest problem of all is “adult content” on the Internet, things are about to get so much worse. With AI advances and video generation, we’re rapidly approaching the day when a teenage kid will be able to describe ANY fantasy to his AI — and instantly receive a video that’s specifically tailored to his/her tastes. Teens will even be able to hear their AI fantasy screaming their names.

That’ll enhance the illusion of intimacy and personal relationships. It’ll make their digital fantasies increasingly indistinguishable from reality.

Which will ultimately leave them lonelier than ever.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is investigating entities involved in a planned Muslim housing development in Texas due to concerns the initiative may have engaged in discrimination based on religion and nationality, the department said in a Feb. 13 statement.

HUD’s probe will look into “The Meadow” project, formally called EPIC City or the East Plano Islamic Center, for potential violations of the Fair Housing Act, according to the department. The Act prohibits direct providers of housing, such as real estate companies, from instituting discriminatory practices that make housing unavailable to people based on race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, or family status.

The department’s investigation, conducted by its Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity, will cover EPIC Real Properties, Inc., and Community Capital Partners, LP, which are involved in the development program.

According to the department, it has “received a complaint from the Texas Workforce Commission detailing a large-scale pattern of religious discriminatory conduct by the developers of The Meadow.”

The project’s marketing materials promote the initiative as a “Muslim community” that will represent the “epicenter of Islam in America.” There are allegations of discriminatory financial terms in the project requiring lot owners to subsidize a mosque and Islamic educational centers, HUD said.

Another allegation is that the initiative employs a biased sales mechanism consisting of a two-tier lottery system for lot sales, granting exclusive access to Tier One buyers.

“It is deeply concerning the East Plano Islamic Center may have violated the Fair Housing Act and participated in religious discrimination,” HUD Secretary Scott Turner said.

“As HUD Secretary, I will not stand for illegal religious or national origin discrimination in housing and will ensure that this matter receives a thorough investigation so that this community is open to all Texans.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the East Plano Islamic Center and Community Capital Partners for comment, and did not receive a response by publication time. The Epoch Times was unable to reach EPIC Real Properties.

Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott extended support to HUD Secretary Scott Turner regarding the investigation, according to a Feb. 13 statement from the governor’s office.

The state has taken multiple actions over the past year against the EPIC City project. In April 2025, Abbott said the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality found the entities involved in the project had not obtained required permits or authorizations to move ahead with development.

In November 2025, the Texas Securities Board sent a letter to the state’s Deputy Attorney General for Legal Counsel, writing that Community Capital Partners and its personnel could have “solicited unauthorized sales, engaged in fraud, and made materially misleading statements concerning securities.”

In addition, Texas Rangers are investigating the EPIC project and any affiliated entities for potential criminal activities, the governor’s office said.

“Last year, I directed the Texas Workforce Commission to investigate EPIC and any affiliated entities for violations of the Texas Fair Housing Act. After a thorough investigation, Commission staff later filed a detailed complaint, which HUD has now accepted for federal investigation,” Abbott said.

“I support HUD Secretary Scott Turner’s efforts to hold EPIC and its affiliates accountable to our anti-discrimination laws. Together, we will hold anyone involved in violating the law accountable. The Meadow will remain just that—an empty field.”

In October 2025, the office of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said the AG had uncovered illegal activities by EPIC City developers and sought a referral from the Texas State Securities Board to file a lawsuit on the matter.

In December 2025, Paxton filed a complaint against the East Plano Islamic Center, Community Capital Partners, and other parties involved in the EPIC City project, alleging violations of the state’s securities laws.

Defendants denied any wrongdoing, with the developers as well as Muslim groups criticizing the legal challenge as Islamophobic.

Meanwhile, local residents voiced concerns about Sharia law and radicalization among communities that they believe may not integrate into American culture.

During a press briefing in April 2025, Mustafaa Carroll, the interim executive director of the Council on American–Islamic Relations (CAIR), Texas, Austin, and Dallas-Fort Worth, supported the EPIC City initiative while criticizing authorities.

“They have chosen to abuse their power by launching groundless investigations against EPIC, blocking funerals, intimidating children and families, and violating their rights to constitutionally protected religious expression,” Carroll said.

Texas has previously taken action against CAIR. In November 2025, Abbot signed a proclamation designating the group as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and a Transnational Criminal Organization. The same month, the council filed a federal lawsuit against Abbot over the designation.

After U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke earlier on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, where he said the U.S. and Europe “belong together” and argued for a stronger West, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who served under former President Barack Obama, appeared on a panel later that afternoon and made surprising remarks about mass migration.

Clinton participated in a panel titled, “The West-West Divide: What Remains of Common Values,” and said that mass migration invasion involving millions of illegal aliens has been “destabilizing” to society.

Clinton continued:

So this debate that’s going on is driven by an effort to control people, to control who we are, how we look, who we love. And I think we need to call it for what it is.

There is a legitimate reason to have a debate about things like migration. It went too far. It’s been disruptive and destabilizing, and it needs to be fixed in a humane way, with secure borders that don’t torture and kill people, and with a strong family structure, because it is at the base.

Hillary Clinton admits illegal immigration went too far:

“It went too far, it’s been disruptive and destabilizing.”

REMINDER: Biden let millions of unvetted illegal criminals pour into the country for four years. pic.twitter.com/JeqUxJsU7B

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) February 14, 2026

Clinton’s comments about how mass migration has been an utter failure probably made White House border czar Tom Homan blush. In fact, unhinged Democrats, such as the Democratic Socialists of America, are probably furious with Clinton, given her very blunt public stance on immigration policy. 

In fact, if we circle back to Rubio’s comments earlier in the day, he slammed “mass migration”.

Let’s not forget that Rubio’s State Department last fall recognized that mass migration was an “existential threat” to the West and risks “undermining the stability of key American allies.”

The World Awakens Part 1: Pawn Storms

The elites are using illegal immigrants as pawns worldwide to gain control. Even Cesar Chavez fought against it, pointing out that it was an attack on locals.

If you liked this content, pls consider following. It would be a big help in… pic.twitter.com/ubiEozxJwt

— Winter_Rewind (@WinterRewind) May 31, 2024

“America First” politicians are coming to their senses about the illegal alien invasion, as it was a move by globalists, NGOs, and their Democratic Party allies to install a new voting bloc and transform America into a one-party rule of left-wing kings and queens (think California). 

That’s why “America First” politicians and Elon Musk are pushing hard for the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act to secure the integrity of elections. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Radical leftists in Los Angeles’ Highland Park neighborhood are installing unauthorized sirens to alert illegals when ICE agents are nearby, creating a city-wide network to sabotage federal deportation efforts.

This brazen move highlights the escalating desperation of open-borders agitators, who are putting communities at risk by harboring criminals amid President Trump’s aggressive push to remove illegal aliens from American streets.

A grassroots group led by community activists has crowdfunded and begun deploying small red siren devices on private properties, bypassing city permits. The sirens, activated remotely via an app, are designed to warn residents of spotted federal immigration operations.

Liberals in Los Angeles are now installing actual sirens across the city to warn people of ICE which can be heard from half a mile away.

This is totally illegal. Needs to be shut down immediately. pic.twitter.com/WcC5q3cpfO

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) February 14, 2026

“We’d like to ultimately have this along all the different streets so they can take shelter,” said Amanda Alcalde, who created the Highland Park Community Support Group.

Flyers posted in the area explain: “If you hear the siren, ICE is in the community.”

Activists claim the goal is to give families time to seek safety, with one noting, “I’ve seen a lot of fear in people’s eyes. I don’t see a lot of our ethnic minorities out in the day to day. It’s big change. It feels dystopian in a way.”

Another organizer added, “Unfortunately, ICE raids that have been happening. We have got to get more creative and find ways to protect our community members.”

At least 20 sirens have already been installed, with more planned by February 23. The devices can reportedly be heard from half a mile away, turning neighborhoods into alert zones for evading law enforcement.

This tactic echoes broader leftist interference, as seen in Minnesota where anti-ICE agitators’ actions led to fatal confrontations. 

Investigative journalist Michael Shellenberger previously warned that such delusions are getting people killed, stating, “The left is getting people killed at this point.”

Similar obstruction has fueled violence elsewhere, including a Chicago high schooler assaulted for holding an “I Love ICE” sign during a student protest, and a leftist Karen stalking and abusing ICE agents tracking a child rapist murderer illegal.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has even announced training sessions to teach agitators how to block ICE and doxx agents, framing it as “legal” observation while ignoring the surge in threats against federal officers.

DHS reports an 8,000% increase in death threats against ICE agents, underscoring the dangers of these sabotage networks funded by leftist foundations and foreign donors.

As Trump’s administration ramps up deportations targeting criminal illegals, polls show strong public support: 73% view illegal entry as a crime, and 67% demand local cooperation with ICE.

Yet blue-city radicals continue defying federal law, radicalizing youth and endangering agents who protect American communities from murderers, rapists, and gang members.

These illegal sirens represent a new low in the left’s war on border security, inviting chaos and undermining the rule of law in pursuit of their open-borders agenda.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Russian officials are describing a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack targeting the capital of Moscow on Sunday. While not the first time, such aerial assaults so deep in Russian territory have remained somewhat rare.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Sunday afternoon that Russian air defenses intercepted 13 drones headed for the capital, as regional officials reported a sweeping wave of UAV attacks across western Russia – including hundreds of UAVs in total.

In mid-afternoon local time, Sobyanin announced that a drone approaching Moscow had been shot down. Within an hour later he described that air defenses had destroyed a total of 13 UAVs targeting the capital area. Emergency crews were dispatched to sites where debris fell, he detailed in the aftermath.

State-aligned outlet RIA Novosti reported that Domodedovo airport briefly halted arrivals and departures amid the threat before operations resumed.

The past year has seen increasing delays and stoppages at major aviation hubs across the Moscow region, leading to frequent delays and flight cancelations, also as frustration among Russian travelers grows.

In the border area Bryansk Oblast, Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz described the region had been under sustained drone assault since early morning. He said 120 UAVs had been downed over the territory.

As for details of the assault on southern Russia – which has become almost a nightly reality – Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that in the morning hours, air defenses intercepted 102 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Bryansk, Kaluga, and Tula oblasts, as well as over the Moscow region – including three allegedly flying toward the capital.

Repeat drone attacks on Moscow could result in the Russian military upping its own attacks on the Ukrainian capital, which will leave Kyiv Oblast further without power, after already being subject to rolling blackouts.

Ukrainian drones are active in the Moscow region, Russian air defense is operating. As of this morning, already 100+ UAVs have been spotted and reported in Moscow region territory. pic.twitter.com/4wjbM2Tx87

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 15, 2026

Winter has hit hard in Ukraine, given that in many places there have been subzero temperatures, and amid persisting power and gas outages. Some locales have even experienced water outages, creating dire humanitarian circumstances.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

A Bridge Too Far? The AI TRANSITioN?

Last weekend we discussed Molotov Cocktails, Volatility, Stability, & Faux Liquidity. In a nutshell, it was about:

• The transition from one steady state to another steady state can be volatile.
  • A rules-based world, dependent on trade, to a ProSec-based world where each country operates more independently.
  • The transition from a pre-AI world to an AI world.
• Faux liquidity – or our assessment that market structure is set up to produce bigger moves than the headlines or news warrant.

We got to discuss many of these things on Bloomberg TV on Friday, where Academy was part of the first half hour. While the focus was on AI, I kept arguing that geopolitics and this transition from one stable system to another stable system was also likely playing a major role in this week’s price action. Of all the things I regret saying, or not saying, I flubbed the final question on Walmart’s multiple. It isn’t something I focus on, and my answer was weak. I wish I’d highlighted that Walmart is the sort of company that should do well – big enough to navigate the changing global trade system and well positioned enough to extract the maximum benefit from AI-related efficiencies.

In any case, we certainly have a lot to follow up on based on this past week’s volatility and rapidly evolving narrative.

A Bridge Too Far?

One heck of a movie, and one of the few that comes to mind where the “good guys” lose. They put up an epic struggle, but don’t achieve their goal.

As you know I am Canadian, so you can choose to take this with a grain of salt, but I believe that this week’s “Truth Social” post about the new bridge, almost completed, fits the “bridge too far” narrative.

• There was a lot of concern about imposing tariffs on countries that had been deemed to be blocking the U.S. “taking” Greenland. Not just from foreign countries, but there also seemed to be some degree of backlash and concern domestically. Not “just” from economists (which were front and center during Liberation Day). Nothing broke, and nothing really changed, but it seemed to set the stage for what happened this week.
• On Sunday night (or early Monday morning) the President posted some complaints about the new bridge being built. The Gordie Howe Bridge. He is legendary both in Canada and Detroit. As we’ve become used to there was a mix of fact and fiction, and some weirdness (like China going to take away the Stanley Cup – which no Canadian team has won since 1993).
• He went down the path of ownership. But it quickly came out that Michigan will have ownership, once the bridge costs are paid for (which were heavily skewed towards being paid by Canada). The argument of “ownership” also looked “flimsy” as people discovered that the Ambassador Bridge (the current connecting bridge) is privately owned by an American company (or family). I’ve used that bridge a lot, and it leaves a lot to be desired. One thing that I think of a lot is how great the new Tappan Zee Bridge is (technically the Mario Cuomo Bridge). It is a beautiful bridge and it has changed traffic patterns for the better. I don’t even know how old the bridge is now, but I still feel a sense of awe (and even pride) when driving across that bridge. I’m not sure the Gordie Howe Bridge is anywhere near as impressive as the new Tappan Zee Bridge, but it certainly has to be an improvement (and additive).
• I’ve left out a myriad of other allegations around this to focus on the pertinent point. Michigan, with the approval (and support) of U.S. Presidents (including President Trump) has engaged in a project that they viewed would help their economy. Out of the blue, that is being challenged?

Now maybe it is pure coincidence, but this week, the House of Representatives voted to stop the tariffs between the U.S. and Canada. There is no way this won’t get stopped with a veto (assuming it gets passed the Senate), but this is the first time during this administration that we saw Republicans go against the President even as they were warned about reprisals such as “being primaried.”

We’ve had some questions about the American Brand. Tourism to the U.S. from abroad is down (not horrific, but down). We have yet to notice a discernible change in consumer tastes abroad, but many of these “bridges too far” have occurred only recently.

While I’m not sure much will come of it, France announced on January 26th that civil servants would have to use Visio by 2027, instead of Zoom.

While we have “goods” trade deficits with many (even most countries), we have “services” surpluses.

We’ve always argued that the total trade balance is most important (goods and services).

• While I don’t see it tracked anywhere, “profitability” of trade is even more relevant and what little evidence there is points to the fact that from most countries, the U.S. imports low margin products and exports higher margin products (or services as the case may be).
• That is NOT inconsistent with ProSec which prioritizes domestic (or trade with close allies) for “things” that are vital for national security in a wholistic way (rather than purely military).

We’ve also argued that tariffs put pressure on the system slowly. It is the cumulative effect of tariffs that matter (especially when the rates themselves seemed subject to change at any moment). As we move into the 10th month of higher tariff revenue (around $30 billion per month) the cumulative effect seems to be appearing (lots of reports this week citing amounts eaten by exporters, versus paid by importers, or passed on to customers).

Now maybe it is pure coincidence, but this week, stories circulated about reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum. There were some denials but this makes sense – as it will take the U.S. time to crank up production and it is “confusing” how to apply this, as both steel and aluminum are a part of so many products.

Markets like some degree of certainty. Even if the certainty is somewhat variable. The market has grown to accept the volatility and the “maximalist negotiating leverage” game. 

But have we crossed a bridge, where that game no longer functions like it has for the previous 6 months or so?

U.S. stocks underperformed most other indices last week, especially when converted to dollars.

I think we have seen enough Molotov Cocktails lobbed domestically and internationally (from all sorts of directions and parties) that this volatility extends and resolves itself in lower valuations, especially domestically, as the U.S. has outperformed by so much for so long.

The AI TRANSITioN?

I was trying to find a font that had more of a computer/sci-fi “vibe”. I wanted to use one of The Far Side’s dinosaur cartoons where a couple of dinosaurs are laughing at a mammal while one looks mildly concerned about some snowflakes that are falling (but we probably needed some actual copyright permission to do that – though I urge you to search The Far Side for dinosaurs).

I guess I was thinking about that because Even the Dinosaurs Weren’t Stupid Enough to Create Their Own Extinction Event. They were not smart, and they did become extinct, but they didn’t do it to themselves.

So, we will use this little picture to symbolize what may have happened last week (and I’m pretty sure we don’t need any copyright permission from Grok).

We have been talking about the little I (or i-shaped) economy. Arguing that maybe it is a k-shaped economy rather than a K-shaped economy. We’ve also been talking about the “working poor” in recent pieces (The Fed, Electricity, & Affordability).

You could almost convince me that it is an h-shaped economy, but that might be too negative.

But for now, I think the K in the K-shaped economy just cracked. Let’s look at this “cracking” of the K in two ways.

The first from “margin compression” and even “margin differential” compression:

• High margin, low physical asset businesses are likely to face margin pressures. I don’t think we are close to the day where AI can create products that remotely compete with the biggest and best software programs – but they could face margin pressures as they head off any potential competition at the pass. The selling may already be overdone, but we could see some margin compression continuing in sectors that don’t have as big of a “moat” as previously thought. Installed base is still a very powerful “moat” and the market may have forgotten that, but margin pressure is likely to be a story that becomes a recurring theme to pressure markets.
• Low margin business, especially those with large “physical” undertakings (property, plant, and equipment, shipping, logistics, etc.) may benefit and see margin expansion. These are the sorts of business that can see margins expand as they get benefits from efficiencies delivered by AI (I should have done a better job on this on Friday’s TV appearance).
• So, the high margin sectors that the market owns heavily could see margins shrink, while the low margin businesses that many investors are underweight in could see margins expand. Both the margin expansion and compression come from the same force – rapidly improving AI. This rotation could have some staying power. Call this the margin differential compression trade. It will adjust what are the appropriate multiples for different companies and different industries.

Weirdly, that might be the more benign way to think about this.

• White collar job losses.
  • The FT published an article where Mustafa Suleyman, the CEO of Microsoft AI, predicted (according to a Grok summary) that most tasks in white-collar professions – such as those performed by lawyers, accountants, project managers, and others working at computers – will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months. There seem to be a lot of takes on his words that are even worse than what he said, though what he said doesn’t seem great. Presumably, at least some people on the upward sloping part of the K have white-collar jobs?
    • I did manage to write a T-Report this weekend, rather than giving up, but…
  • If you haven’t seen, or I’m the first person to suggest checking out Something Big Is Happening, I recommend it. It is another, I think I can say, “dire” warning about potential job losses.

We’ve been living in a “no hire, no fire” economy. Anyone who had been proclaiming massive job losses from AI was viewed as a tin foil hat wearing “doomer.”

Most people were explaining that AI would:

• Enhance what people could do, so those who harnessed it would benefit greatly.
• The counterpoint to this, recently, has become that since AI is getting so easy to use, don’t even bother, because by the next generation, we won’t need to have a clue on how to use AI, to use it.
• Create some job losses but create many more jobs. Ironically AI prompter is one of them, but see the above comment.
• Basically, the argument has been that AI, like many other technological advances, would be a big net benefit to humankind (and not a self-made extinction event).

That narrative, like the K, seems to have cracked in the past few weeks.

• Will that change how people spend their money? This narrative has appeared rather “suddenly” and has an “alarmist” ring to it. Maybe, like the initial concerns about DeepSeek, it will fall by the wayside.
  • The risk is that, even before job losses occur, people will change their spending behavior out of fear of those job losses.

I’m not in this camp, but the concern that “Someone’s Efficiency is at the cost of Your Job” was almost palpable this week.

Probably overdone, but if the upward sloping leg of the K has been driving the economy and spending, we might want to be very careful (in our investing and spending).

Yet another reason to be cautious on risk as we make it through this “transition.”

The Fed

I remain convinced that:

• We will have 75 bps of cuts by the end of the September meeting. That there is a far higher chance of one more Powell cut (March or April) than the market is pricing in. The market moved in our direction this week, but plenty of room still to price in what we are positioning for.
• 10-year yields will be sub 4%. 10s closed at 4.05% on Friday.

This has nothing to do with the rest of today’s report, but I didn’t want anyone to think we’ve stopped pounding the table on these trades. Though in some ways it has a lot to do with everything in today’s report if we’re right about the volatility and its disruptive nature.

Two Last Things

• The Supreme Court is likely to rule, at least partially, against the U.S. government on the IEEPA tariffs.
  • Countries that have set up trade deals are unlikely to be impacted as the trade deals themselves should overrule the IEEPA tariffs (to the extent there were any). Though there isn’t a lot of evidence that agreements in principle have turned into formal documents.
  • The admin has many other ways to attack tariffs other than under IEEPA, especially for tariffs in the 15% and lower range.
  • It is likely the admin, on any losses, will make it very difficult to collect money paid on tariffs that were deemed illegal. Do you really want to sue the government or do you just view it as a sunk cost?
  • I don’t think the ruling will have much of an impact, though I’m rethinking that, as the reaction might be different if we really did go “a bridge too far” this week.
• Expect nuclear arms proliferation.
  • Ukraine gave up what nukes it had and it was invaded by Russia (which does have nukes and has muted any military response to their actions).
  • Iran has been attacked before, and the U.S. is positioning forces capable of launching another major attack.
  • North Korea, with a backwards economy, and few friends, is largely left alone (while executing cybercrimes to fund themselves). Would the world tolerate such blatant cyber activity if they didn’t have nukes?
  • France has discussed the possibility of working with other nations about sharing (in some form) either technology or weapons.
  • Nuclear energy will be important to the world for ProSec, and I’d be shocked if nuclear weapons didn’t play an important role in smaller nations figuring out how to ensure their sovereignty. So probably bad for humankind and extinction events, but good for uranium and others in the nuclear fuel business.

Bottom Line

More of the same. We could get some bounces.

• Some markets are at or near being oversold.
• We could get pleasant surprises with Iran or Russia.
• There are likely to be new “pronouncements” from the administration in their efforts to run hot heading into the midterms – and I continue to believe people are not pricing in the Fed as aggressively as they should. I also remain a huge fan of the ProSec™ trade. Not in the least because many of the industries that fit the trade criteria are in the camp of stocks that have been underinvested in and are positioned to do well.

I wasn’t even depressed when I started writing this report. Sorry if this report did nothing to brighten your day, but this is the dark spot my thoughts led me to.

Though I do remain skeptical of the ability for AI to change things so quickly that we are hurt before we can reap the benefits.

There, at least we ended on a positive note, and for those on holiday on Monday, do enjoy! It is difficult to believe it is only the middle of February.