Summary

• Pakistan PM Sharif: “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached & Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.”
• Surprise, surprise: Iran FM says sides “have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.”
• Trump on Truth Social rejects Iran’s version of MoU terms (below): “What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.”
• Tehran: “Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
• CNN speculates (prematurely, it seems) on Geneva signing of ‘Islamabad Declaration’ as soon as Sunday or next week.

*  *  *

Pakistan PM: Final MoU Text Has Been Reached

Pakistan Chimes In with PM Sharif declaring that “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.” Oil drops lower.

SHARIF: FINAL, AGREED UPON TEXT OF PEACE DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED

Amid ongoing intense mediation efforts by Pakistan, we are fully aware of incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal. Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and…

— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) June 12, 2026

Something Actually New Under the Sun

Now this is a true first: President Trump sharing FM Arachchi’s tweet…

First Time Iran Pushes Positive ‘Closer Than Ever’ To Deal Statement, Oil Drops

Amid the constant back and forth yo-yo and ping pong concerning how close or not a final MoD between Tehran and Washington is, now Tehran is pushing the “never been closer” rhetoric, which is somewhat of a surprise given Trump just called their own public ’14-points’ “fake news” in terms of US agreement to it.

But this is the first time in a long while that the Iranian side has side anything positive on the question of reaching a deal, and getting back to a direct negotiating framework.  The country’s top diplomat has just stated that the warring sides have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.

After crude jumped on Trump’s ‘fake news’ Truth Social (below, which indicated he had not accepted many key Iranian demands), oil pushed back down on the new Araghchi statement:

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.

In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 12, 2026

Trump Bats Down Iran’s MoU Narrative & Terms

And there it is: President Trump himself denies the earlier in the morning return of a ‘deal is near’ – by taking to Truth Social and rejecting the stated Iranian terms (as delivered publicly in state media sources):

What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.

Immediately, the expected and familiar spike in oil and the return to pessimism, though at this point there have been no bombs away, after the White House canceled what was to be a third night of strikes (last night):

‘US-Iran Deal Is Near’ Narrative Returns, But Tehran Refuses To Surrender Hormuz Leverage

After having heard the same line many, many times before – and yet with no result (instead, more often the opposite of sliding into further conflict and escalation) – Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday welcomed the “progress” made between the United States and Iran in indirect negotiations.

CNN and other mainstream outlets are reporting on this “hint” that an interim deal taking shape (again). But given the pattern and track record of such reporting, which has consistently proven premature, elusive, and often downright false – it’s hard not to have cynicism and to see much of this as but crude propaganda aimed at keeping energy prices down.

“Both sides welcomed the progress achieved through sustained diplomatic engagement and expressed hope that these efforts will soon lead to a durable understanding and peaceful resolution,” according to Pakistan’s readout of a Foreign Ministry call with the European Union’s chief diplomat.

And yet, the message out of Iran does not suggest positive momentum or the beginnings of any kind of deal taking shape – though it remains that anything is possible (depending on how much either side is willing to ‘give up’ their respective red lines and firm positions).

Iran: Strait is ‘Firmly’ Under Our Control, Won’t Give it Up

Iran is currently saying the Strait of Hormuz is ‘firmly’ under IRGC control – an assertion the Pentagon has vehemently rejected, with Iranian Admiral Habibollah Sayyari saying it continues to wield “power” over the Gulf region.

“The west of the Strait of Hormuz, the strait itself, and the Persian Gulf are under the firm control of the IRGC Navy,” Sayyari was quoted as saying in state media. “No vessel can enter without our permission.” Another commander also asserted that “We have had and continue to have power in the region” – batting down Trump’s words which say Iran’s military has been utterly defeated and decimated at this stage.

CNN Claims MoU Signing In Geneva Planned: Really?

But again, returning to the optimistic Friday reports, which may have no basis in reality whatsoever (time will tell), CNN is going so far as to report on the venue of a signing ceremony for a Tehran-Washington Memorandum of Understanding:

A signing ceremony for a memo of understanding with Iran would most likely be held in Geneva, Switzerland, three sources told CNN on Friday. That signing could take place as early as Sunday, according to a person familiar with plans.

That comes after US President Donald Trump on Thursday touted a “great settlement” that could resolve the war with Iran, suggesting it would be finalized in the coming days. Trump said he anticipated a signing ceremony for the document soon, potentially in Europe, to be attended by Vice President JD Vance. However, Iranian officials have yet to confirm an agreement has been reached.

Two sources with knowledge of the diplomatic talks said the signing ceremony would be held in Geneva – not far from where Trump and a US delegation will attend a G7 summit next week in France. One of those sources said a signing ceremony would mark the start of “phase two” of diplomatic talks, as officials work through the implementation of the memo of understanding.

Multiple sources said the memo is being called the “Islamabad declaration,” in recognition of the key mediating role Pakistan played. But nothing has been confirmed, and an Iranian source suggested the Austrian capital Vienna was also being considered.

According to reports from Iran, the proposed deal may be even more scandalous than what was reported last night.

Iran’s Mehr News Agency, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, claims the draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran… https://t.co/rMctp2wbPS

— גיא עזריאל Guy Azriel (@GuyAz) June 12, 2026

But the nature of the MoU would likely just involve committing to a framework basis on which both sides would get back to the negotiating table, and not yet necessarily a final, lasting peace deal. Iranian state media on Friday did seem in agreement that there’s been some level of progress on at least getting back to formal talks based on a MoU, per Bloomberg:

Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr said the countries are negotiating an agreement in which the strait would be reopened within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. Under a draft agreement, the US would have no role in the future management of the strait and Iran would make no commitment to transfer control or restore conditions that existed before the US and Israeli attacks, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

Iran Pushes Back Against US/Media Narrative

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has meanwhile rejected media speculations regarding an agreement and reaffirmed Iran’s resolute and principled stance, per Mehr. He stated: “Textually, the text has almost been finalized in its major parts. The problem is that the contradictory positions of the United States have always caused turbulence and disruption in this process.”

In terms of even rhetoric alone, the two sides still seem very far apart:

President Trump on Thursday insisted the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, pulling back from his threats just hours earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Trump said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off on the plan, which he said would be completed in coming days, paving the way for additional talks on Iran’s nuclear program.

Tehran said it hadn’t decided. “Iran hasn’t reached a final conclusion about the agreement,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, according to state media. “We will announce it when we reach a conclusion.”

More hurdles are in the details:

Iran’s IRNA news agency reports the issue of US sanctions on Iran will be left for after the signing of the memorandum of understanding and a 60-day deadline for conducting peace negotiations.

“Iran does not offer any commitments in the memorandum regarding the nuclear issue, and the other party does not commit to lifting the sanctions,” it said.

“If Tehran decides to sign the memorandum, some of its frozen funds will be released immediately, and the rest gradually.”

Iran’s Mehr News claims a draft Trump-Iran deal would leave the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, provide $300B in reconstruction funding plus $24B upfront, suspend sanctions, withdraw U.S. forces from the region, ease pressure on missiles/proxies, and restrain Israel in…

— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) June 12, 2026

Tehran reaffirms its position in the following fresh statement:

“Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The only matter referred to in the memorandum of understanding is the return of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after the end of the war,” Iran’s state media reported.

“The main objective of signing the memorandum of understanding is to end the war on all fronts”, it added.

All of this comes during a week which started with Iran and the US renewing a state of active fighting, and with Gulf states coming under Iranian ballistic missile attack, in retaliation for the latest waves of major US tomahawk strikes against Iran.

Still, Bloomberg and others are reporting the following: “US and Iran Nearing a Peace Deal Around G7 Meeting Next Week.” What can be said except we’ve been here before, and time will tell. Did Trump cancel yesterday’s planned strikes because a deal is really finally being forged?

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk

• Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. [Click here for the full 14-point MoU] 
• The US-Iran MoU is likely to be signed next week, according to CBS citing sources, with Bloomberg later reporting that it could happen at the G7 meeting in Geneva next week. First steps include ensuring “freedom of trade” by demining and opening the Strait of Hormuz. The signing would kick off 60 days of talks to negotiate details. In principle, Iran would commit to a lockout of 15-20 years during which it would not enrich uranium and would dismantle its nuclear sites. In exchange for taking these steps, Iran would receive financial relief staggered over time and sequenced to correspond with compliance.
• US President Trump said he understands that Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the deal and that lifting the blockade is part of the Iran deal, while he added that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and that they want to make a deal a lot more than he does. Trump added it’s a very strong MOU, they found Iran to be rational, and they will make a deal. Furthermore, he said the Strait will open immediately upon MOU signing, maybe Saturday or Monday, but doesn’t want to set a deadline for the deal, and stated a Kharg Island deal would be off the table now.
• US President Trump said at a virtual campaign rally that they settled up with Iran and it is pretty much completed, while they got everything they wanted and claimed they ended the war with Iran.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu held a call with US President Trump on Thursday night regarding the possibility of a pending peace deal between the US and Iran, according to CBS News.
• Airplanes associated with US VP Vance’s advance team are moving ahead of potential Iran MoU signing, according to New York Post reporter.
• Iran state media said Tehran would not cede control of Hormuz under draft US deal, AFP reported.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalised, while it added that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is less secure due to US actions and that what is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation. Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Iran has so far not reached a final conclusion about the agreement, but stated that the text of the agreement is almost ready.
• Sources cited by Al Hadath said Iran has given final approval, which Qatar conveyed to the US.
• Iranian state media reported that explosions heard in Sirik was related to a confrontation with a vessel that violated regulations whilst attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israeli airstrike reported in Jebchit, southern Lebanon, according to Al Araby.

Whether it is Elizabeth Warren, left-leaning unions, or Democrat-aligned NGOs funded by dark money, the common pattern here has been an information campaign aimed at Elon Musk to derail the SpaceX IPO. Their motives are very simple: if the game is about power and money, then Musk potentially becoming the world’s first trillionaire on Friday morning represents a direct threat to the progressive empire they have built.

Just as with President Trump, the left has mounted a permanent pressure campaign of ‘useful idiots’ against Elon Musk because he has poured tens of millions of dollars into political campaigns for pro-America candidates – something Democrats, socialists, and Marxists despise. Then, Musk headed up DOGE in early 2025, which resulted in the defunding of USAID – another move by Musk that caused unhinged left-wing NGOs and Democrats to lose their minds.

The anti-Musk crowd was at it again on Thursday, one day before the SpaceX IPO was set to kick off, when a former Wall Street Journal reporter published an opinion piece in The Globe and Mail titled, “SpaceX is set to make Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Here’s how to properly hate him.”

Chris Gay, who appears to have a lot of pent-up hatred for Musk, began the op-ed: “Now that the SpaceX initial public offering is making Elon Musk all but officially the world’s first trillionaire, is it okay to despise him just for being one? To broaden the question: are the billionaires associated with widening inequality a bad look for capitalism?”

The op-ed is less about wealth itself and more of a political framing exercise that uses the SpaceX IPO as the catalyst to recast Musk’s soaring fortune as a governance risk. Gay attempts to launder what appears to be hatred toward Musk, centering his argument on democracy, inequality, and political capture. In other words, the target is not simply Musk becoming the world’s first trillionaire, but the perceived threat that his capital, influence, and political alignment pose to the progressive establishment’s grip on institutional power.

Gay wrote, “By donating at least US$250-million to the Trump campaign in 2024, this private citizen positioned himself to kill a congressional budget deal more or less single-handedly, and then to create a bogus federal agency: the “Department” of Government Efficiency. He staffed it with college-age technobrats who among other things effectively dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development, which millions of people depended upon for life-critical assistance.”

Gay’s op-ed, which The Globe and Mail posted on X, was heavily ratioed and had a Community Note … 

Here’s what X users said in response:

This is classless and dangerous.

You’re a disgrace @globeandmail

— @jason (@Jason) June 12, 2026

How dare he create hundreds of thousands of jobs, trillions in wealth for others, accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, help paralyzed/disabled people to become more independent and connect poor/low income areas to the internet!

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 12, 2026

Imagine hating a guy whose rap sheet is:

-jobs
-wealth creation
-clean energy
-self driving cars for mobility for the elderly
-helping paralyzed people walk again
-internet for the poor

Sounds like an absolute MONSTER 😂😂😂

— Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) June 12, 2026

Reckless biased propaganda. You should be grateful instead.

— Linda Yaccarino (@lindayaX) June 12, 2026

I thought we were supposed to stop spreading hate

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 12, 2026

Elon has created thousands of millionaires through his endeavors. What have you done outside of yapping about better humans? pic.twitter.com/21dRG3AlYB

— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole) June 12, 2026

The fact that you are focusing on envy and hate instead of how to innovate and be successful like Elon speaks volumes about your writers and your sad little entity.

Pathetic.

— Carol Roth (@caroljsroth) June 12, 2026

It’s not just Globe And Mail, the globalist Financial Times pushes the information operation to paint Musk as ‘evil’ … 

Opinion: You might have thought the world’s richest man had enough on his plate teeing up history’s biggest IPO. Yet he has been devoting many of his waking hours to stoking up racial hatred in Britain on his social media site. https://t.co/1C09ebAgPg pic.twitter.com/sFFtPM3RVx

— Financial Times (@FT) June 12, 2026

The left is losing its mind as the nation progresses forward with pro-American innovation and wokeness dies in darkness. 

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Park Police and federal officials opened an investigation Thursday after a sizable marking resembling “8647” was etched into the lawn of the National Mall.

The incident occurred amid preparations for major events celebrating the nation’s 250th anniversary of independence.

A Reuters photographer witnessed the marking from atop the Washington Monument before authorities, including members of the National Guard, arrived on scene near the World War II Memorial. The numbers, formed by discolored or browned grass against the surrounding grass, appeared to be massive.

The phrase “8647” comes from the restaurant slang “86,” which means to remove or get rid of, combined with 47 to reference President Donald Trump, currently sitting as the 47th president. Trump allies and the Department of Justice have interpreted the prevalence of the phrase as potential calls to violence as opposed to mere political expression.

An Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement that the act was “deranged vandalism.”

“Any threat against the president is taken very seriously by the Department, and our U.S. Park Police will investigate this incident and hold those responsible accountable,” the spokesperson said.

The U.S. Park Police said the cause of the grass discoloration has yet to be determined, though samples have been taken for testing as part of the continuing investigation.

This latest episode follows a previous high-profile case: the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey on charges related to a social media post in 2025 featuring seashells arranged as “8647.”

“Threatening the life of the president of the United States will never be tolerated by the Department of Justice,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in April this year.

“Over the past year, this department has charged dozens of cases involving threats against all sorts of individuals. We take these seriously, every single one of them.”

Federal prosecutors tied the term to alleged threats against the president. Comey contended that his actions were not intended as such, and he challenged the accusations on free speech grounds.

“A child knows what that meant,” Trump said in May 2025. “If you’re the FBI director and you don’t know what that meant, that meant assassination, and it says it loud and clear.”

The National Mall has hosted recent events such as the “Rededicate 250“ prayer celebration earlier this year, which attracted thousands to the grounds for a meditation on the nation’s founding principles.

Preparations are underway for Independence Day festivities, including military parades, museum exhibitions, and public programs honoring America’s heritage.

Trump has pledged to refurbish the Mall, encompassing efforts to restore features like the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and plans for the semiquincentennial celebrations, with a “Great American State Fair“ set to begin later this month.

After reaching all-time record lows in May, analysts expected UMich’s Sentiment index to rebound modestly in preliminary June data and it did, up from 44.8 to 48.9 (well above 46.0 exp), with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices.

Source: Bloomberg

“This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, adding that “lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets.”

Well that will wreck the Democrats narrative…

Inflation expectations dropped in this early June data…

Once again we are confused because while the headline UMich inflation expectation over the next year declined, all political parties saw higher expectations (and Independents now have a higher inflation expectation that Democrats while Republican expectations are rising)…

Are they just making this shit up?

Via American Greatness,

The Kennedy Center’s board of trustees voted Thursday to challenge a federal judge’s order requiring President Donald Trump’s name to be removed from the performing arts center.

According to court filings, the board formally appealed US District Judge Christopher Cooper’s ruling just before the court-imposed deadline for removing Trump’s name from the building and related materials.

Earlier Thursday, the board also voted to seek a stay of Cooper’s order, according to two individuals familiar with the meeting who spoke to The Washington Post.

To obtain a stay, attorneys for the center must demonstrate a likelihood of success on appeal and argue that removing Trump’s name would cause irreparable harm.

The dispute stems from Cooper’s earlier ruling against the Trump administration and the Kennedy Center board.

The judge ordered Trump’s name removed from the exterior of the building, the center’s website, merchandise and other materials associated with the institution. Cooper also blocked a planned two-year closure for renovations, finding the move unlawful.

The court had given the Kennedy Center until June 12 to comply with the order.

Cooper sided with Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-OH, an ex officio member of the board who challenged the decision to rename the center.

The judge concluded that Congress established the institution as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy following his assassination and that the board lacked the authority to alter that designation.

Before filing its appeal, Kennedy Center officials indicated they would comply with the court’s order while weighing further legal action.

“We are complying with the court’s order while evaluating all legal options to preserve this revitalization and recognize President Trump’s leadership,” Roma Daravi, the center’s vice president of public relations, previously said.

The center has already removed Trump’s name from several official platforms, including its website, YouTube channel and invitations to its annual honors ceremony.

However, references to Trump remained visible Thursday on the Kennedy Center’s Instagram, Facebook and X social media accounts.

Trader sentiment has sharply reversed after President Trump canceled the planned strikes and negotiators signaled progress toward a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal.

Risk assets are catching a bid Friday morning, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both up roughly 30 bps. Treasurys are also rallying, with yields down 8 to 10 bps across the curve, led by the belly, and the 10-year yield is around 4.45%.

The timing could not be better for Elon Musk. SpaceX shares are set to hit public markets in the coming hours, potentially making Musk the world’s first trillionaire on paper and minting roughly 4,000 employee millionaires. SpaceX’s public market debut comes as themes of artificial intelligence and the space economy ramp up.

Already, pre-IPO trading in the derivatives linked to SpaceX shows a potential first-day surge of 30% to 50%.

IG International pricing implied a market value near $2.4 trillion on Friday morning, more than 35% above the company’s $135 IPO price and $1.77 trillion valuation.

On Hyperliquid, SpaceX-linked perpetual futures traded at $175-$180, implying a valuation above $2.3 trillion, with 24-hour volume of more than $224 million and open interest of over $252 million.

Late in the U.S. cash session on Thursday, SpaceX filed a free writing prospectus (FWP) which confirmed the company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, for a total size of $75 billion (excluding the greenshoe), making history with the biggest-ever IPO, launching it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world’s first trillionaire.

For context, SpaceX is more than double the size of the previous largest IPO – Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019. The SpaceX registration statement was declared effective on Thursday.

The pricing details are shown below.

At $135, SpaceX will have a market value of $1.77 trillion. Accounting for employee stock options and restricted share units, the pricing gives it a fully diluted valuation of about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX’s market value will rank it among the top 10 public companies globally, and make it larger even than Musk’s own Tesla.

According to Polymarket, there is a 84% chance the IPO closes above its offering price tomorrow, and a 46% chance it rises more than 20%.

Nearly 50% odds on Polymarket that SPCX rises 20% ($2.2TN market cap) on its first day of trading, and 84% odds it closes above its offering price. https://t.co/UfN4FOlP7T pic.twitter.com/6U0S0HDyt1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

Odds on Polymarket are surging that today’s market cap will close between $2 and $2.5 trillion. 

According to Bloomberg data, Wall Street analysts, including one from New Street Research, Oppenheimer, and KGI Securities, have all rated SpaceX “Buy” with an average 12-month price target of $189.

Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan published a note on Thursday, initiating coverage of SpaceX with a $190 price target and a “Buy” rating.

Horan’s bull thesis:

We believe SPCX intends to converge communications and cloud/AI using space- based infrastructure. We see potential for SPCX to leverage terrestrial compute expertise as a bridge (and possible back-up plan) to enable key scale and cost advantages. We see it as the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent. We note significant regulatory, technology, execution, keyman and investor expectation risks remain and that thermal management of chips for space applications in space within four years appears challenging. However, its space infrastructure appears structurally advantaged. We note terrestrial DC capabilities include highest velocity/lowest cost DCs (Colossus) which combined with V3s and Cursor will drive 2027-30E revenues. We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating/$190 PT at the IPO price of $135.

His key points:

• Robust public currency is key to business strategy. We believe access to capital is essential for CEO Elon Musk’s long-term AI vision in order to fund dominant communications and compute capacity along with acquisitions of AI companies. Eventual Tesla merger is plausible, but near term we believe the cos. will remain a quasi-vertically integrated ecosystem to provide access to capital.

• Large markets, but critical technology risk remains. We believe SPCX could address a $10T TAM by 2035E, but note that critical enabling-technology commercialization for space-based DCs remains uncertain, notably for thermally resistant chips, and costs could prove noncompetitive even if SPCX successfully builds chips. Should technology development be delayed, we see potential to leverage core expertise in terrestrial DC buildouts to support AI plans.

• Starship is crucial for success. SPCX is targeting 10K launches/year (27/day) totaling ~1.4B kg to deploy 1M datacenters and 100K communication satellites to support 1TW of its own manufactured chips. We believe this is only possible with capital/Starship, the most complex machine ever built. We expect growth to accelerate in 2027E as Starship enters commercial service and as AI LLMs/ infrastructure begin to see market traction.

• LEO communications capacity to grow 100x, at a $10/subscriber/month cost. Goal is to have a majority of AI compute, offered in space at lowest cost. We see 230M broadband subs in a decade, and 240GW of compute vs. global current capacity of 100GW. The communications technology is solved, the compute is not. There are a half dozen other, large long-term industries.

• Expect high volatility, with shares trading up initially. We anticipate an initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion. Our $190 PT ($2.5T firm value) is based on our DCF and 2035E revenue/EBITDA of ~$0.9T/$0.5T, requiring ~$1.6T in cumulative CapEx/spectrum and $300M more funding.

Separately, IG analyst Fabien Yip noted, “Demand has been good for the IPO and there is a lot of interest in the pre-IPO trading as well,” adding, “We have had so far even with the valuation looking stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum sustains, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPOs.”

Yet Morningstar analysts, Elizabeth Warren, and lefty pension funds have all tried to kill the hype cycle leading up to today’s world’s largest IPO.

Microsoft’s Xbox gaming division is preparing for a major round of job cuts at the end of the month as new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma moves to “reset” the unit amid a confluence of negative and worsening pressures, including shrinking revenue, soft hardware sales, plateauing Game Pass momentum, and what management now describes as an ongoing “hardware component crisis.”

Bloomberg first reported that Microsoft will announce an upcoming round of layoffs after the company’s fiscal year ends on June 30. The report was based on sources familiar with the upcoming restructuring plan, though it did not mention whether AI adoption and efficiency gains are driving the cuts.

In a memo to staff, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Matt Booty said the gaming division’s first 100 days under new leadership showed early signs of progress.

“Now we start the next 100 days. It is important to have both optimism and realism as we work to reset the business,” the executives wrote in the memo titled “Next 100 Days: XBOX Reset.”

They continued, “Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.”

The memo outlined Xbox’s harsh realities it must navigate to achieve a turnaround strategy:

1. Over 1 billion players choose to play XBOX and our games each year, for a total of 72 billion hours across Console, PC, Mobile, and Streaming (excluding much of China and a few other properties). Our franchises are also among the largest and most beloved globally and are now breaking records in TV and film. Going forward, our competition is attention. There are more great games, TV series, franchises, creators, content formats, apps, etc., than ever before

2. We will end this fiscal year at about a 3% accountability margin, down year-over-year. Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform, and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.

3. We are in a hardware component crisis. When I joined as CEO in February, the price we paid for console storage components was over 2x as high as we paid last fall. These costs have since doubled again. And as we plan for the 2027 holiday season, we expect another significant increase, taking us over 5x the prices we paid only two years earlier. Memory costs have followed a broadly similar trajectory. While the entire industry is facing a components crisis, we believe we have been impacted more greatly than many of our peers due to the choices we made over the last half decade. We are currently unable to make as many consoles as players want to buy, and we need a new business model and partnerships for hardware as we remain committed to Helix.

4. We expanded our studio system when we needed a pipeline of content to meet multiple strategies across subscription, streaming, and devices. In the process, we have found ourselves over extended as we executed on changing strategies in a landscape of more readily available content. We are the fortunate stewards of industry-defining franchises that have enormous potential and player demand, but we have not adequately funded them to compete and win. At the same time, as we saw this past weekend at Showcase, a reliable pipeline of first- and third-party exclusives and new IP are critical to our success. We need to reassess the balance between these and our investment priorities for the next 5 years.

5. Our current platform infrastructure is not built for the battle ahead. Our systems are overly complex, spanning hundreds of dependencies, which hinders our ability to move fast. We’ve become too reliant on vendors to operate our systems and must become more self-reliant as an engineering culture to build for the future. We must increase the value we ship to players while decreasing the time it takes to do so. Going forward, we’ll evolve and rebuild our stack and look at capabilities across all of XBOX and potential M&A to help us win in hardware, PC, mobile, and streaming.

In February, the CEO told the audience at the Bloomberg Tech conference that she planned on “resetting the business,” which was “not in a healthy spot.”

How it started vs how it’s going | #XBOXShowcase pic.twitter.com/ntww9Pk0GN

— XBOX (@XBOX) June 7, 2026

Xbox and the entire gaming industry have faced mounting headwinds.

TD Securities analyst Doug Creutz pointed out Thursday that mobile gaming remains strong, but console gaming has lost momentum this year:

Industry View: Mobile Had a Really Strong Q1; Tempering Console Expectations

We believe U.S. mobile game spending grew +14% y/y in Q1, comfortably above our expectations, based on reported results at public companies. Note that our model does at least attempt to incorporate the impact of what are rapidly growing DTC businesses across the industry. We expect +10% y/y growth in U.S. mobile game spending for 2026. On the other hand, we previously reduced our 2026 console global software/services spending estimate from +7% y/y to +1% y/y based on (1) the impact of the recent price cut to Xbox Game Pass and (2) the apparent lack of a tentpole title in Nintendo’s 2026 slate.

Xbox reaches more than 1 billion players annually across console, PC, mobile, and streaming, but can’t generate profits? It may be time for AI and automation to streamline the gaming unit, which likely means layoffs are imminent.

The gaming industry is waiting for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year to rekindle demand.

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Three months into the biggest oil supply disruption in modern history, China appears to have discovered something that should make oil bulls at least a little uncomfortable.

It can get by on less fuel than anyone thought.

China’s gasoline and diesel demand has been falling for years as electric vehicles gained market share and economic growth slowed. But the latest drop has surprised even seasoned observers.

According to Reuters, gasoline sales at Sinopec, China’s largest refiner and fuel retailer, fell 8% year over year in April, while diesel sales dropped 6%. Goldman Sachs estimates that consumption of gasoline and related products may have fallen by as much as 20%.

China has slashed crude imports since the Iran war began, with May imports plunging 29% to 7.8 million barrels per day—the lowest level in eight years. Until recently, many analysts viewed those cuts primarily as a function of China’s enormous oil stockpile and high crude prices.

Now another explanation is emerging: China may simply need less fuel.

Rail travel rose roughly 10% in March and April. Subway ridership continues to climb. Electric taxis are becoming increasingly common. Most notably, EV charging volumes surged 69% from a year earlier to a record high in April, according to the China Charging Alliance.

That shift comes as China’s refiners are already grappling with weaker economics. Sinopec cut refining runs earlier this year as Middle Eastern supply disruptions squeezed crude availability, while Beijing has sharply reduced fuel exports to preserve domestic supplies.

The property downturn isn’t helping either. Diesel demand from construction, long one of China’s most reliable sources of consumption growth, continues to weaken as projects stall and budgets tighten.

The question now is whether the trend sticks.

China’s refiners can only draw on inventories for so long. The country still maintains one of the world’s largest crude stockpiles, but even a billion barrels eventually run out. At some point, imports will need to recover.

What remains unclear is whether gasoline demand will recover with them.

For decades, China’s economic growth was one of the oil market’s most dependable bullish arguments. Today’s reports may have some rethinking the strength of that argument.

Sulfur is a critical industrial input produced as a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas processing. With roughly half of the world’s seaborne sulfur trade trapped behind the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, another 15% stuck in Kazakhstan due to export-logistics blockades, and demand destruction still insufficient across global markets, Bank of America analysts warn that spot sulfur prices have further upside potential.

Matthew DeYoe, research analyst at BofA Securities, covering all things ag, materials, and chemicals, wrote in a note, “The market is working through unprecedented supply shortages, and prices are inflecting accordingly. Spot sulfur is now ~$1,200/mt, vs a more normal .”

“The inflation is destroying demand across some industries, notably phosphates and pulp & paper, but we are not killing demand fast enough, and margins for metals like copper and lithium are strong enough to keep prices bid,” DeYoe noted.

DeYoe said his team spoke earlier this week with Fiona Boyd of Acuity Commodities about global sulfur and sulfuric acid markets, coming away with a clear takeaway: the market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, yet demand destruction has not gone far enough. With supply trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint, export logistics disrupted in Kazakhstan, and metals producers still able to absorb higher input prices, Boyd warned that spot sulfur prices likely have more upside from here.

DeYoe warned, “Hormuz + Kazakhstan + Russia = runaway price risk.”  

He explained further:

Roughly 50% of the world’s seaborn traded sulfur is caught behind the SOH and another 15% is trapped in Kazakhstan given export logistic blockades. In total this represents ~30% of the world’s sulfur capacity, though it is compounded by sulfuric acid export bans from China and a 3-4mn tonne shortfall to annual Russian exports on account of attacks by Ukraine. Inventory liquidation is helping to buffer, notably in China, which is drawing down its stocks, and Canada, which has ample supply. However, the latter is expensive and slow to mobilize, while the former is running out (Boyd expects 2-4 weeks of safety stock left). Because sulfur is largely a processing byproduct, it is price inelastic, so don’t expect more supply because economics are better. Alternatives, such as pyrite, are increasingly sought, but it can’t fill the hole. This all puts upside risk to sulfur price.

The near-term fix for the energy crunch, which extends far beyond sulfur markets, is reopening the Hormuz chokepoint. Yet DeYoe warned that even if Hormuz were reopened soon, it would take months to rebalance the market and repair damaged assets. This suggests prices will remain elevated through the end of the year.

Related coverage on the sulfur market:

• Gulf Shock May Spark Shortage Of World’s Most Critical Industrial Chemical, Used Heavily In Mining

DeYoe highlights that Mosaic is in focus. Sulfuric acid is a key input for phosphate fertilizer production, and Mosaic relies on sulfur from US Gulf Coast refineries. He noted that high sulfur costs could pressure Mosaic’s second-half profits and cash flow, potentially requiring a debt raise. He also added that the odds of US government intervention to restrict sulfur exports to protect domestic DAP fertilizer production could increase.

Professional subscribers can find much more on Gulf energy shock here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.

• Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.

• Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.

In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.

Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.

Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.

The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.

The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.

But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.

Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.

Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.

All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.

The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.

The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.

Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.

Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.

“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market’s fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.

“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”

Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.

“We’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”