Last night we reported that no less than 800 ships were still trapped in the immediate aftermath of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, unsure what the fine print of the deal meant for transits. This morning we are down to ~798, after the first two cargo vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire, according to ship tracking data.

The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, destined for the United Arab Emirates, crossed just before 8am UK time, while the Greek-owned NJ Earth followed about two hours later, with its destination undisclosed, the tracking platform Kpler showed.

The ships are the first large vessels to transit the critical waterway since the agreement of a two-week ceasefire, under which Iran has claimed it would maintain control of the strait. It was unclear if they paid any tolls to make the crossing. Around 175 million barrels of crude and refined products are currently loaded on to 187 tankers in the Gulf, according to Kpler data — which could now start to move, depending on what happens in the strait.

Regarding Hormuz transit, Iran said it will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire, the FT reported.

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the FT on Wednesday that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship.

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini, whose industry association works closely with the state. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” he added. 

Decisions on the conditions for passing the strait are taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Hosseini’s remarks suggest Iran will require any tankers to use the northerly route close to its coastline, raising questions over whether western or Gulf state-linked vessels will be willing to risk transit.

Hosseini said that each tanker must email authorities about its cargo, after which Iran will inform them of the toll to be paid in digital currencies. 

He said that the tariff is $1 per barrel of oil, adding that empty tankers can pass freely.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” Hosseini added.

Speaking to CBS this morning, Trump said that there may be a joint US-Iran venture for Hormuz tolls. 

Tankers in the Gulf on Wednesday received a radio broadcast that warned they would be targeted with military strikes unless they first gained approval from Iranian authorities. 

“If any vessels try to transit without permission, [they] will be destroyed,” said the broadcast, which is in English, according to a recording shared with the FT.

The fate of transit through the strait is one of the thorniest issues facing negotiators as they try to turn a temporary ceasefire into a prolonged peace, with Iran’s desire to retain leverage over the key waterway clashing with fierce opposition from the US’s allies in the Gulf. 

A statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council listed 10 points that form the basis for negotiations with the US, including a new “protocol for secure passage” through the strait in co-ordination with Iran’s armed forces.

Western ship owners said on Wednesday they were taking a cautious approach while waiting for details on how and whether the strait might reopen, with no vessels currently braving the transit apart from two linked to Iran.

Maersk, the world’s second biggest shipping line, said it is “working with urgency” to clarify the terms.

“The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty,” the company said, adding that it would continue to take a “cautious approach” with cargoes and was not yet making changes to specific services.

Allowing Iran to continue to control the crucial waterway is likely to be highly unpalatable to Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The Omani Minister of Transport said that Oman’s position is clear regarding the Strait of Hormuz: Oman has signed all international maritime transport agreements. The Strait of Hormuz is a natural passage, created without human intervention, and therefore fees cannot be imposed on it according to the international agreements signed by the Sultanate.

🚨وزير النقل العُماني:

بالنسبة لمضيق هرمز، موقف عُمان واضح، عُمان وقّعت على جميع الاتفاقيات الخاصة بالنقل البحري دولياً.
​مضيق هرمز معبر طبيعي، لم يتدخل الإنسان في خلقه، ولذلك لا يمكن فرض رسوم عليه حسب الاتفاقيات الدولية التي وقّعت عليها السلطنة. pic.twitter.com/G8cE4mhDaA

— الأحداث العالمية (@NewsNow4USA) April 8, 2026

It also raises questions for Opec+, the oil producers’ group, with analysts warning that handing Iran control of Hormuz could fundamentally alter the balance of power within the organisation by giving Tehran a potential veto over rival members’ exports.

Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal court, said the kingdom would demand “unimpeded” access to global markets.

 “Allowing Iran any form of control over the strait would be a red line,” Shihabi said. “The priority has to be unimpeded access through the strait.”

On Wednesday Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline, which the kingdom has been using to reroute oil exports to the Red Sea, was struck by a drone according to people familiar with the matter, despite the ceasefire.

Several traders said they thought the situation in the coming days would resemble the system that has developed over the past fortnight, in which a handful of ships that have been approved by Iran are allowed to pass on a specific route. During the conflict this was largely limited to vessels that had generally done business with Iran and that were not connected to the US, Israel or Gulf states that had provided staging for attacks.

Martin Kelly, head of advisory at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk, said that there was “no way” that the backlog of ships waiting to get out could be cleared in two weeks.

Around 10 to 15 ships might be able to transit the strait per day as the process was “quite time-consuming”, he said, down from 135 ships before the war.

Summary: 

• The Hegseth/Caine presser as expected declared ‘victory’ in Iran while Gen. Caine emphasized the ceasefire is a “pause” but US forces remain “ready to resume combat.“ Hegseth says “military will be hanging around in Iran, won’t go anywhere, and will make sure Iran complies.

• Caine hails that US has destroyed Iran’s defense-industrial base, including over 80% of missile facilities gone, and its navy lies at the “bottom of the Arabian Sea”. It’s clear that after six weeks the Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury.

• Iran meanwhile demands stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. Tehran leaders have asserted ‘victory’ for Iran, amid positive international reaction to the ceasefire.

• The first two ships since the ceasefire was announced have crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said it will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait, as it seeks to retain control over passage

• Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West oil pipeline carrying crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export has been attacked at a pumping station, oil rises on the news. There’s been sporadic attacks on other Gulf states too.

*  *  *

IRGC Parliament Official: ‘Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Must be Halted’

Reuters has picked up on the words of IRGC officer and member of Iranian parliament’s “Expediency Discernment Council” Mohsen Rezaee: “In response to the brutal aggression against Lebanon, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must be halted immediately and a strong, decisive strike must be delivered against the entity.”

This perhaps represents a hardline faction approach, given clearly Tehran has held significant leverage and maintains de facto control of the Hormuz Strait. However, it does not yet appear the official government position, given also the first two vessels have passed through the waterway since the ceasefire was announced.

As we reported earlier Wednesday, The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, destined for the United Arab Emirates, crossed just before 8am UK time, while the Greek-owned NJ Earth followed about two hours later, with its destination undisclosed, the tracking platform Kpler showed.

Saudi Aramco Export Pipeline To Red Sea Struck

A huge, and not very ‘ceasefirey’ development in Saudi Arabia, per the FT (just as Hegseth was speaking): “A pumping station was hit at 1 p.m. local time, the people told FT. The attack was carried out by a drone and damage was being assessed, one of the people told FT Saudi Aramco, which owns and operates the pipeline.” FT continues, “The people said a pumping station, one of several along the 1,200km pipeline that has become an economic lifeline for the kingdom since the near closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, was hit at about 1pm local time on Wednesday.”

One Gulf based representative and analyst complains, “For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows…”

The development pushed oil slightly up…

Pentagon Tries to put a Bow on Operation Epic Fury: ‘Overwhelming Victory’

Hegseth in his Pentagon press briefing called the ceasefire an “overwhelming victory” for the United States and stated the military “stands ready” to ensure Iran complies with the agreement. He said US forces will still be “hanging around” the region, and further that Iran’s nuclear “dust” is being monitored, buried under the rubble, and that eventually the US will either take the enriched uranium or else it will be handed over. “Iran begged for ceasefire,” Hegseth declared.

“We stand ready in the background to ensure Iran upholds every reasonable term,” Hegseth said. Also Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Caine stated that all US objectives in Iran have been achieved.

He hailed that US has destroyed Iran’s defense-industrial base, including over 80% of missile facilities gone, and its navy lies at the “bottom of the Arabian Sea”. It’s clear that after six weeks the Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury.

During the Q&A, there was a question – largely dodged by Hegseth – centered on wither the US has achieved “strategic” victory vs. merely tactical victory. That ultimately is the question.

Also, is there really ceasefire on the ground? But this is merely day one:

For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows, assuming the ceasefire actually…

— Nawaf Al-Thani نواف بن مبارك آل ثاني (@NawafAlThani) April 8, 2026

But Iran also sees this as Victory

The United States and Iran have announced a two-week suspension of all attacks, and Tehran reportedly agreed to allow safe transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. It all started with President Trump seizing on the last-minute olive branch plan offered by Pakistan’s prime minister, which urged a two week extension of the US deadline before massive obliteration bombings began, and in return Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire.

Iran warns of decisive response to any ‘miscalculations’ by US. The IRGC said in a statement: “While we remain open to talks, we trust no promises from our adversaries. Our forces are poised, prepared by decades of experience in confrontations with American and Zionist forces, ready to respond decisively to any miscalculations by the enemy.”

Latest from Trump on Truth Social:

Oil prices dropped rapidly after Trump announced the pause, with Brent crude trading just below $95 per barrel. Qatar’s Cabinet welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, stating it emphasizes “the necessity of immediately halting all hostile actions and practices that undermine regional stability, respect for state sovereignty, and the assurance of security for maritime passages, freedom of navigation, and international trade.”

Iran meanwhile is demanding stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. So now, in essense… stability in global energy flows depends on accommodating Iran AND it will likely get sanctions relief, per the deal on the table.

Iranian state media has featured celebratory scenes in the streets:

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Breaking | Iranian television:

Trump agreed to Iran’s conditions to end the war.

Iran has officially won. pic.twitter.com/qjnt9lnTOO

— Global Insight Journal (@GlobalIJournal) April 7, 2026

Ceasefire Hailed Internationally

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that he held a “warm, substantive” conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. “I conveyed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and sagacity of the Iranian leadership in accepting Pakistan’s offer to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week to work jointly for the return of peace to the region,” he said.

“President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s efforts, while conveying his best wishes for the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun welcomed the ceasefire, while Israel has instead asserted that Lebanon remains outside the agreement and continued strikes on the country.

To quote armchair war hawk Michael Weiss, A month ago Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Now the U.S. claims these are a feasible starting point for negotiations…

Pope Leo XIV praised the agreement as a “sign of real hope,” stating, “I welcome with satisfaction, and as a sign of real hope, the announcement of an immediate two-week truce. Only by returning to negotiations can we reach the end of the war,” during his weekly audience at the Vatican.

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed the ceasefire and signaled readiness to support a diplomatic resolution. Director General Rafael Grossi stated, “IAEA DG Grossi welcomes … a return to diplomacy aimed at negotiating a settlement on key issues including Iran’s nuclear program.” It added: “The IAEA stands ready to support these efforts through its indispensable safeguards and verification role.”

Attacks Continue? Hormuz Status

However, attacks on Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait continued on Wednesday, hours after the ceasefire announcement. Also, there’s as yet been no significant change in navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz today, per Bloomberg satellite data.

A global shipping industry group representing 130 companies and around 1,500 vessels stated that conditions in the Gulf remain unstable. CEO Knut Arild Hareide said, “We note the signals of a ceasefire, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and unpredictable.”

Airstrikes have reportedly targeted the Lavan oil refinery in Iran today. The ceasefire is seemingly in effect in name only. pic.twitter.com/PdH9CrjS6T

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 8, 2026

“It is not yet clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out. Shipowners are assessing the situation and will not resume transits until there is real security for safe passage,” Hareide added.

Will it hold?

Ceasefire day 1:

Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced.

Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am.

UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack.

Iran, via state media, reports strikes…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 8, 2026

Earlier, Denmark’s Maersk shipping company stated that the ceasefire announcement does not provide sufficient certainty to resume normal operations in the region.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

• US President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of bombing in Iran, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a double-sided ceasefire and stating US military objectives have been met while a long-term peace agreement is close to completion.
• Trump said the US received a 10-point proposal from Iran that serves as a workable basis for negotiations, with most major points of contention already agreed and the two-week period intended to finalize the deal.
• Trump posted: “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
• Trump told AFP the Iran deal is complete and a comprehensive US victory, stating Iran’s uranium “will be perfectly taken care of” and that China played a role in bringing Iran to negotiations.
• Iranian outlet SNN reported possible ceasefire violations, citing explosions on Siri and Lavan islands, while Iran’s National Security Council warned that if attacks continue in southern Lebanon, it will strike Tel Aviv within hours.
• Iran confirmed negotiations with the US will take place in Islamabad starting April 10, aiming to formalize battlefield gains politically within 15 days, with talks extendable by mutual agreement.
• Iranian officials stated talks with the US do not signify the end of the war, while confirming safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks and that operations will halt if attacks on Iran stop.
• Pakistan’s leadership invited US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad, with reports indicating US envoys and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend.
• A US official said the ceasefire will begin this evening, though delays are expected in relaying orders to IRGC field units.
• Iran and Oman are expected to charge transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire arrangement.
• Israeli outlet Ynet reported security sources stating the ceasefire will include Lebanon.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to pursue a truce, according to Axios.
• Iran’s UN ambassador stated Iran “categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire” and said any resolution must ensure a definitive end to aggression and establish lasting peace.
• The US will demand removal of nuclear materials from Iran, according to Israeli officials cited by Al Hadath via Haaretz.
• A White House official stated the ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
• A senior White House official said Israel is included in the two-week ceasefire and has agreed to suspend bombing during negotiations.
• Oman’s transport minister stated no transit fees can be imposed in the Strait of Hormuz under existing agreements.
• Iraq’s Islamic Resistance announced a two-week suspension of operations.
• Hezbollah is preparing to announce its formal position on the ceasefire and respond to claims that Lebanon is excluded.
• A new wave of Iranian missiles was launched toward Israel.
• An Israeli military official stated Israel continues to conduct strikes inside Iran.
• Explosions were reported on Iran’s Sirri Island, with the source unidentified.
• Explosions were also reported at the Lavan oil refinery in Iran, with the cause unknown.
• Bahrain issued a missile alert hours after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
• Reports indicated an explosion in Kermanshah in northwestern Iran.
• The IDF confirmed detection of missiles launched from Iran toward Israel.
• Iran’s Supreme Security Council stated forces remain ready to respond immediately and with full force to any escalation.
• Maritime data showed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited.

Airline stocks are flying high in premarket trading in New York after the overnight ceasefire between the Trump administration and Tehran. The truce is a positive for the aviation industry, which has been locked in turbulence for six weeks, as surging jet fuel prices have crushed the margins of major carriers, forcing ticket and baggage price hikes and triggering travel chaos across the Gulf region.

“Even two weeks is a positive because we will see some flow of oil return,” Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told Bloomberg Television in an interview.

Walsh pointed out that even with a ceasefire underway, jet fuel prices “will remain elevated for some time.”

“If crude has come down 16%, you like to think jet will come down by a similar figure, but it’s still going to be a high price. That will mean higher ticket prices. It is inevitable,” he warned.

Walsh also cautioned that jet fuel supply shortage risks remain elevated, with Asia seen as the most exposed region, followed by Africa and Europe. JPMorgan outlined “demand destruction” and how the energy shock spreads in a note here.

Even though WTI and Brent crude prices collapsed overnight, Walsh said normalization across the airline industry and energy markets will take time.

Delta Air Lines warned earlier that it expects to incur more than $2 billion in fuel costs through June, but noted that it has yet to change its full-year profit forecast because the outlook remains too murky.

Last week…

• Third-Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees as Jet Fuel Prices Spike

Malaysia Airlines’ Nasaruddin Bakar warned that “even if the war stops, it’s going to take many, many more months for the price to stabilize.”

Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri pointed out, “This time is about the infrastructure that was destroyed. It will take some time to bring back all the supply, the facilities, the refineries, and the infrastructure.”

“The Iran conflict has flipped the airline industry on its head, as fuel costs have more than doubled at a time when demand has improved,” Melius analyst Conor Cunningham told clients.

Relief in airline stocks was evident in premarket trading in New York, with United Airlines up 11.5%, Delta Air Lines up 11%, and Southwest Airlines up 10%.

In mid-March, amid all the panic, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari asked: “Are we approaching a bottom for these airline stocks?” It appears so (well so far).

US futures, global stocks and bonds are sharply higher while oil prices plunge the most in years as a wave of optimism swept through global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz: JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk, which moves from Neutral to Tactically Bullish this morning, says to look for a re-risking in the very near-term albeit it with higher energy prices. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 2.8% higher while emerging-market stocks rallied the most since 2022; Nasdaq gains 3.5% with Mag7 and Semis seeing significant bids as part of an ‘Everything Rally’ ex-Energy. Yet while the overwhelming mood in markets is relief, the same core challenges remain to find a resolution amenable to both countries and Goldman’s Delta-One head says he is selling the rally. Brent plunged 16% to around $93 a barrel. Bonds surged, with 10Y tsy yields sliding 8bps to 4.23% while benchmark UK yields tumbled by 22 basis points. The dollar weakened to a one-month low. Gold and silver gain. The macro data focus today is on the Fed Minutes ahead of PCE and CPI releases later this week.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all sharply higher: Meta +5%, Tesla +4.5%, Alphabet +4%, Nvidia +3.5%, Amazon +4%, Microsoft +3.3%, Apple +2%

• Gainers also include precious-metal miners and financial firms, while chemical and fertilizer names fall.
• Energy stocks fall due to the ceasefire: Exxon (XOM) -5.3%, Chevron (CVX) -4.3% and Venture Global (VG) -11%
• Airlines rally: United (UAL) +11%, Delta (DAL) +10%
• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) climbs 8% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results. The earnings prompted Craig-Hallum to raise its rating to buy, citing “improving business momentum and significant growth opportunities over multiple business segments.”
• Levi Strauss (LEVI) gains 9% after the apparel company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue forecasts for the full year citing strong demand as the denim brand steers shoppers to its own stores and website.

In corporate news, Super Micro Computer launched an internal probe to investigate circumstances surrounding server sales to China. Elon Musk is seeking to have Sam Altman removed from his roles at OpenAI as part of his legal challenge to the company’s conversion to a for-profit company.

The ceasefire announcement came not long before a deadline Trump had set that threatened a major escalation of the war. “We have now stepped back off the edge of the precipice,” said Aviva’s Richard Saldanha. The rapid twists and turns of the war have led to a record intensity of stock trading, according to a measure of daily SPY ETF turnover.

Looking at overnight markets, the most dramatic moves were in oil markets. European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years, shedding as much as 20%. Prices of refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel — which had been the biggest threats to global inflation — also tumbled.

As part of the two-week truce, Iran said it will allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the chokehold on energy supplies that have threatened to cripple the global economy and accelerate inflation. A potential snag comes from the FT which reports that Iran demands fees for ships passing through the strait and will ask payment for tolls in crypto payment. While many investors cautioned that there is still a wide gap in the negotiation demands of Iran and the US, the widespread view was that stocks have fallen so sharply in recent weeks that any de-escalation path would be enough to trigger a rebound. 

“This is also showing promising signs that we’ve dodged the worst-case scenario,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “It’s a good result considering the alternatives, as it shows a willingness to get something done.”

The latest news has left the Trump Reversal Index — a gauge created by Bloomberg strategist Simon White that combines various macro indicators — back to not much higher than where it was before the war started.  Light positioning is also fueling Wednesday’s relief rally. Volatility-control funds’ allocations to US equities had recently fallen to 56%, the lowest since July, according to Barclays. 

What comes next will depend on five questions, according to Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. These include whether Iran fully reopens Hormuz and whether Israel sticks to the ceasefire. Hormuz will “never go back to the way it was before,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. “Iran’s ability to shut the waterway will embed a risk premium in the price of all commodities flowing through it for the foreseeable future.” More than 800 ships are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf.

In politics, US regulators unveiled a plan to overhaul rules intended to prevent money laundering. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a similar group focused on bilateral investment.

Traders are now back to seeing a strong chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Swaps are signaling a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the year-end, compared with almost no chance seen at the start of this week. Before the war started, they had priced in more than two reductions. 

Some of the world’s largest investment firms are betting the market turbulence is past its peak and are buying bonds and artificial-intelligence stocks, while selling the dollar. Kellie Wood at Schroders Plc snapped up short-dated bonds including Treasuries on Wednesday morning. Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. is considering doing the same alongside plans to sell the greenback. Allspring Global Investments is buying tech and defense stocks that are seen as insulated from energy shocks.

European stocks are soaring: the Estoxx 50 up more than 5% and the Stoxx 600 is up 4% alongside a 14% decline in Brent crude as  markets cheer news of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, even if the truce is a “fragile” one. European equity sectors are mostly higher with outperformance in travel, IT and consumer discretionary. Airline stocks, which have been pummeled by concerns of skyrocketing energy prices, lead gains in Europe. EasyJet Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG both jumped more than 10%. Energy stocks post material losses.Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• European oil stocks plunge on an otherwise broadly risk-on day, with airlines and technology shares particularly strong after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, sending the crude price tumbling and other asset classes soaring. Luxury-goods stocks, miners and chemicals stocks also rise strongly
• Close Brothers shares surge as much as 23%, the most since August, as the lender said the estimated cost of the FCA’s motor finance redress proposal is broadly similar to its existing provision
• Gamma Communications shares soar as much as 15%, their biggest intraday gain on record, after the telecom services company said it’s in preliminary talks with a number of potential bidders
• Redcare Pharmacy shares rise as much as 16% after the German firm’s preliminary first-quarter figures reassured analysts. Shares in Swiss peer DocMorris gain as much as 9.9%
• Polish coal miners Bogdanka and JSW slump after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The move is expected to ease the energy shock, denting bets on a broader return to coal-fired power in Europe
• Shares in Norway’s Yara fall as much as 13%, while Germany’s K+S drops as much as 13%, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Stocks in Dubai — a key target of Iranian attacks during the conflict — jumped 8.5%, the most since Dec. 2014. Pakistan equities were also among the top gainers, after the country emerged as a key mediator in the ceasefire.

Still, there were continued reports of hostilities, underscoring the fragility of the deal. The UAE said it responded to a missile threat as of early afternoon local time, while Kuwait’s army cited “intense” attacks from Iran throughout the morning. “Markets have been moving very quickly, setting us up for a relief rally,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “What will happen in the next few weeks — who knows? It’s hard to believe that this is a long-term resolution.”  

Asian stocks rose for a fourth straight day to a one-month high as oil prices tumbled after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, easing fears of supply disruptions and inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 4.9%, led by heavyweight chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. South Korea’s Kospi surged nearly 7%, leading gains in the region, while benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan advanced more than 3% each. Shares also advanced more than 3% in mainland China, Hong Kong and India. The Reserve Bank of India held key interest rates on Wednesday, striking a cautious tone as it monitors the impact of surging oil prices on the economy and pledges to curb any excessive currency moves.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.8% with the greenback lower versus all major peers. The kiwi is one of the better G-10 performers following the hawkish hold from the RBNZ.  

In rates, global bond yields are materially lower with German and UK 2-year borrowing costs down 22bps and 25bps respectively as traders scale back ECB and BOE hike bets. The US curve is in bull-steepening mode with traders pricing a circa 50% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end. Treasury futures trade near session highs reached following gap higher at the Asia open, with oil benchmarks down more than 10% and stocks surging after US and Iran set a two-week ceasefire and Tehran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US yields are lower by 3bp-6bp across a steeper curve as long-end tenors lag front-end and belly; 10-year is lower by more than 6bp near 4.23%. Swap spreads leg higher as demand pours in for cash Treasuries, with long-end spreads wider by nearly 3bp. The US session includes 10-year note reopening; demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year new issue.  Treasury’s $39 billion 10-year note reopening has WI yield near 4.24%, about 2bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.7bp; auction cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year reopening

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down about 16% near session lows; their biggest drop since the covid crash; Brent crude fell as much as 16% and European natural gas futures posted their biggest decline in more than two years despite uncertainty about how quickly transit through Hormuz can resume. Precious metals are gaining, with spot gold and silver up 1.7% and 5.3% respectively. Bitcoin has added 3.2%. 

Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data calendar is blank; Fed speaker slate includes San Francisco’s Daly at 1:05pm, and FOMC releases minutes of March meeting at 2pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +2.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +3.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +3.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +3.8%
• DAX +4.7%
• CAC 40 +4.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -6 basis points at 4.23%
• VIX -5.5 points at 20.26
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.8% at 1200.59
• euro +0.8% at $1.1685
• WTI crude -15.9% at $95.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Oil headed for the biggest drop in six years and global equities surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said the US will help relieve Hormuz traffic with more than 800 vessels still trapped in the Persian Gulf. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire but said it doesn’t include Hezbollah in Lebanon. BBG
• Kuwait said it’s dealing with “intense” Iranian attacks this morning and some Arab states reported continued attacks. BBG
• NATO chief Mark Rutte meets Trump today, hoping to temper the president’s anger that alliance members have refused to help. But Rutte’s own allies are questioning whether his deferential approach is appropriate, or even working, according to people familiar. BBG
• Chinese imports into the US haven’t dropped as much as the headline numbers might suggest as companies slash the value of their shipments “using tactics ranging from legal accounting tricks to outright fraud.” NYT
• The RBI held rates at 5.25% in its first policy decision since the Middle East crisis erupted. The RBNZ left its benchmark rate at 2.25%. BBG
• Japanese workers’ wages adjusted for inflation rose at the fastest pace since 2021, backing the case for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike as soon as this month. Real wages increased 1.9% from a year earlier in February, marking a second straight monthly gain, the labor ministry reported Wednesday. Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase. BBG
• The Treasury Department wants to talk to state insurance commissioners about the private loans piling up in insurers’ portfolios. Those state regulators have been keeping some of their thoughts to themselves.
• Moody’s Ratings has cut its outlook on a $36-billion Blue Owl fund to “negative” from “stable” on Tuesday, citing redemption requests that were “significantly higher” than peers in the first quarter. RTRS
• In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran in the final hours before his Tuesday evening deadline. The ceasefire was proposed by Pakistan and is subject to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran was said to have agreed to, while the US and Iran are set to conduct talks on Friday in Islamabad. Furthermore, Israel and Lebanon were reported to be part of the ceasefire, although Israeli PM Netanyahu later denied that Lebanon was included. ASX 200 advanced with the gains led by outperformance in gold miners and tech, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum amid the slump in oil prices. Nikkei 225 rose above the 56,000 level with sentiment in Japan boosted by the lower oil prices, while participants also digested the firmer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the widespread risk-on mood amid the US-Iran ceasefire and as Hong Kong participants returned to the market following a five-day closure.

Top Asian News

Top European News

• German Factory Orders MoM (Feb) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. -11.1%).
• French Balance of Trade (Feb) -5.8B vs. Exp. -2.3B (Prev. -1.8B).
• French Imports (Feb) 57.8B (Prev. 55.3B).
• French Exports (Feb) 52.0B (Prev. 53.4B).
• EU Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
• EU Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 2%).

FX

• FX markets began the session firmly risk-on as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, clearing a path for the “re-open” of the Hormuz Strait. Unsurprisingly, the Buck has been knocked with DXY -0.7%, as it loses its favour as the preferred hedge against energy with Brent crude below the USD 100/bbl mark. In a note this morning, Jefferies set out three potential future scenarios: 1) a narrow diplomatic Off-Ramp, centred on reopening the Strait of Hormuz under a face-saving framework for Iran, 2) frozen conflict, where the ceasefire is extended or repeatedly renewed without a formal peace agreement, with oil trading below crisis peaks but above pre-war levels. 3) escalation resumes: triggering renewed disruption fears, pushing oil prices higher, and driving a sharp risk-off move in global markets.
• NZD is the clear outperformer against the USD, helped by both the positive Middle East development and remarks in RBNZ’s post-meeting presser, where Governor Breman said the MPC discussed the possibility of raising rates in April and May meetings, and the “Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting” Despite the Kiwi’s strength, AUD/USD has also been helped alongside risk sentiment and a rebound in precious metals.
• GBP is relieved by the slump in crude prices, with Cable +1% at the time of writing. Markets are still expecting c. 30bps of hiking for the BoE, a pullback of the same magnitude since Tuesday’s close. The Cable rally stalled just above the 1.3440 mark; EUR/GBP has recently fallen just below its 200 DMA, and beneath the 0.87 mark – next up, 50 DMA at 0.8687.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are soaring this morning, with upside facilitated by the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has helped to pressure the crude complex. As a whole, bonds are stronger, and a clear curve steepening bias is seen across the complex.
• USTs are currently trading at session highs, holding at the top end of a 111-05+ to 111-21 range. US paper moved higher on the announcement itself, and then gradually strolled to peaks as the session progressed. European price action has been fairly muted, with the benchmark ultimately trading sideways. From a yield perspective, the 2yr yield now resides around 3.719% (vs Tuesday’s close at 3.80%) and well below the peaks from the Iranian conflict at 4.027%. Geopols aside, focus today will turn to the FOMC Minutes of the March confab, where the Bank left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to forward guidance, balance sheet plans or implementation guidance. A US 10yr auction is also due.
• Bunds and Gilts follow the above, and currently reside at highs. The former is higher by over 175 ticks and within a 125.74 to 126.45 range, whilst UK paper extends gains of over 230 ticks, in an 89.70 to 90.18 range. Europe and UK fixed income has been considerably pressured since the start of the Iranian war, given their high dependence on external energy. For now, some short term reprieve across assets – and this has been reflected in market pricing, with only 2bps worth of hikes priced in for the ECB’s April meeting (vs 12bps pre-ceasefire); however, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with markets still pricing in 45bps worth of hikes by year-end. From a yield perspective, the UK 2yr yield sank at the open, bottoming at 4.044% (vs post-Iran war peak at 4.712%); GE 2yr yield now hovers around the 2.50% mark.

Commodities

• The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a two-week ceasefire, brokered with support from Pakistan, under which the US will suspend bombing, and Iran will allow controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump described the move as a “double-sided ceasefire,” saying most major disputes have already been resolved and that a broader peace agreement is close. Iran has accepted the pause, with its leadership approving negotiations set to begin in Islamabad, where both sides aim to finalise terms based on a 10-point proposal submitted by Tehran.
• The ceasefire remains conditional and fragile. Iran stated it will halt military responses only if attacks stop, while warning it remains ready to retaliate if provoked. The arrangement includes limited safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian coordination, a critical step given the severe disruption to global shipping and energy flows. Israel has signalled support for the temporary pause, though there is conflicting information over whether Lebanon is included.
• However, it is worth noting recent reporting suggests that explosions were heard at Iran’s Lavan refinery, and other reports suggest that explosions were also heard at Iran’s Siri Island – details are light at this stage. But some may begin to question whether the ceasefire has already been violated.
• Energy prices plummeted. Crude futures both tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level following the announcement of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire within a couple of hours prior to President Trump’s deadline. WTI May’26 resides towards the bottom of a USD 91.70-96.27/bbl and Brent Jun’26 towards the foot of a USD 91.05-109.19/bbl range. Dutch TTF slipped to under EUR 45/MWh.
• Spot gold rose above USD 4,850/oz before paring gains slightly to trade around the middle of a USD 4,713-4,858/oz range. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 76.11/oz) and resides near the top of a USD 73.38-77.65/oz parameter.
• Copper climbed to a three-week high, and aluminium also advanced as easing concerns over global growth lifted sentiment. 3M LME copper trades towards the top end of a USD 12,550.00-12,743.90/t range.
• China has reportedly given additional crude import quotas to independent refiners to maintain fuel production at the mandated 2025 levels.
• Abu Dhabi’s media office announces that three people were injured after debris from air defence interception sparked fires at the Habshan gas complex, operations have been suspended temporarily.
• IATA chief said if Hormuz Strait were to reopen, it will still take a period of months to get where jet fuel supply needs to be.

Central Banks

• RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated in the near term inflation, is expected to increase and economic recovery to weaken, while committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns at a 2% target midpoint over the medium-term.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said in online post-meeting press conference that the decision to hold rates was a consensus, adds discussed raising rates at today’s meeting but were not close to hiking. We were not close to hiking rates today and there were no strong advocates for a hike today. If oil prices keep falling our inflation forecast would be on the high side. Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting, it depends.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said sees downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, while he is cautious on the economic outlook and noted uncertainty is elevated. Current policy rate is well-positioned to respond and rate is broadly in range of neutral. US labour market is roughly in balance and susceptible to adverse shocks. US inflation remains above the central bank’s targets and warns that persistent elevated energy prices can weigh in consumer and business spending.
• ECB’s Dolenc said that if the Iran war drags on, it will be very bad for inflation and growth.
• RBI keeps Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it maintains a neutral stance.
• ASB Bank now sees RBNZ raising rates in September and December of this year vs prev. forecast of a December hike.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Trump said the reason for doing so is that they have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East. Furthermore, he confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran, although a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalised and consummated.
• US President Trump posted “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
• US President Trump tells AFP that Iran deal is complete and comprehensive victory for the US, also said Iran uranium will be perfectly taken care of and that he believes China got Iran to negotiate.
• Iranian Press SNN notes of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands. Furthermore, Iran’s National Security Council says within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel Aviv.
• Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details, with the aim of confirming Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within maximum of 15 days, with talks to begin April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree. Talks with the US do not mean of the war, according to Iranian media. The safe passage through Hormuz is possible for two weeks and Foreign Minister Araghchi said their forces will halt operations if attacks on Iran cease.
• Pakistan’s President invites US and Iran delegates to Islamabad on Friday, while reported also noted that EU envoys Witkoff, Kushner and VP Vance is expected to attend US-Iran talks.
• US official said ceasefire will begin this evening, but they believe it may take some time for orders to reach Revolutionary Guard units at the field level.
• Iran and Oman reportedly will be allowed to charge for passage in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire.
• Israel’s Ynet cites security sources stating that Iran ceasefire will also include Lebanon.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to seek a truce, according to Axios.
• Iran’s permanent ambassador to the UN said Iran categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire, while he stated that any solution to the end of the conflict must guarantee a definitive and irreversible anti-aggression and establish a just and lasting peace.
• The US will insist on removing nuclear materials from Iran, Al Hadath reported citing Israeli officials via Haaretz.
• White House official said Iran ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
• Senior White House official said Israel is part of the 2-week ceasefire, according to CNN. Israel agrees to suspend bombing while talks are ongoing.
• Omani Transport Minister said no fees can be imposed on the Strait of Hormuz according to the signed agreements.
• Iraq’s Islamic Resistance suspends operations for two weeks.
• Hezbollah will announce formal position on ceasefire and response to Israeli PM’s assertion that Lebanon is not included, according to sources.
• New wave of Iranian missiles fired towards Israel.
• Israeli military official said Israel is still striking Iran, according to CNN.
• Several explosions reported at Iran’s Sirri Island on Wednesday morning; source of explosions unknown, Mehr News reported.
• Explosions heard at the Lavan oil refinery (50k BPD) in Iran, Mehr reported; origin of the explosion is not known.
• Bahrain sounds missile alert hours after the US and Iran ceasefire agreement, according to AP.
• N12 noted reported of explosion in Kermanshah northwestern Iran.
• IDF said it identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.
• Iran’s Supreme Security Council said fingers are on the trigger and as soon as the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be answered with full force.
• Maritime Shipping Data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited, Arab News reported.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Apr 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -10.4%
• 1:05 pm: United States Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks
• 2:00 pm: United States FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are seeing a sharp rebound overnight following news that the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Trump posted that following a request by Pakistan, he agreed to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran agreeing to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”. He claimed that the US had already met its military objectives and called the 10-point proposal received from Iran a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. Tehran accepted the ceasefire proposal “if attacks against Iran are halted”. Foreign Minister Araghchi also announced that, in response to Trump’s “acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal”, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks “via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations”. The AP has reported that the plan will allow Iran and Oman to charge fees for transits through the Strait. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif has invited US and Iran for talks in Islamabad on Friday (April 10) to negotiate a “conclusive agreement”.

Investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief that an offramp out of the war is being taken even as there’ll be various elements to watch to see whether this leads to sustained de-escalation. Will the ceasefire hold? We saw some strikes by Israel and Iran overnight though these may have been in the works before the conditional ceasefire. We’ve also seen conflicting commentary on whether the ceasefire will extend to Israel’s action in Lebanon. Can talks lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities? Trump’s comment last night that “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to” suggests a lower bar for agreement, but Iran’s reported 10-point plan includes elements such as the lifting of all sanctions and Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz that have previously been unacceptable to the US and allies. Those points also do not restrict Iran’s enriched uranium, which Trump suggested would be “perfectly taken care of” as he claimed a “total and complete victory” in an interview to AFP late last night. And in his latest post overnight, Trump appeared keen to lean into the prospects for full resolution, claiming “a big day for World Peace” and that the US “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz”.

Indeed, the most important question for markets will be to what extent does shipping via Hormuz pick up in the coming days. For now, oil prices have plunged on the ceasefire news, with Brent crude down -13.51% to $94.51/bbl this morning as I type, its lowest intra-day level in four weeks. It had been at nearly $110/bbl before the news of Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal began to emerge but then fell as low as $91/bbl as the ceasefire was confirmed early in the Asian session before recovering slightly. WTI is similarly down -14.92% to $96.10/bbl.

In turn, risk assets are seeing a sharp rally. S&P 500 futures are up +2.48%, which leaves them less than 2% below the levels on February 27 before the Iran strikes began and +6.8% up from their closing low on Mach 30. NASDAQ futures are +3.15%, while those on Euro STOXX 50 are +5.42% higher after a weak session yesterday. Asian equities are also rallying strongly, with the KOSPI (+7.26%) and the Nikkei (+5.26%) at the forefront. The Hang Seng (+2.82%) is advancing after the holiday, while the CSI (+2.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.92%) are also seeing solid gains in mainland China, as is the S&P/ASX 200 (+2.71%) in Australia.

On the fixed income side, 2yr (-6.8bps to 3.72%) and 10yr (-5.2bps to 4.24%) Treasuries are seeing a sizeable rally, with 10yr JGBs (-4.9bps) posting a similar advance. Fed funds futures are now pricing 14bps of Fed cuts by December, up from zero when Europe went home yesterday. And in FX, the dollar index is down -0.92%, while gold is +2.00% higher.

Earlier yesterday, markets had traded cautiously amidst worsening headlines, including Trump’s social media post that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless “something revolutionarily” happens on Iran’s side, as well as news of increased strikes by the US, Israel and Iran across the Middle East. US markets then saw a recovery late in yesterday’s session as news broke that the US and Iran were considering Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal. That helped the S&P 500 recover to +0.08% by the close, having been -1.2% down earlier in the session, while 2yr (-6.1bps) and 10yr (-3.8bps) Treasury yields rallied late yesterday, having been a few basis points higher on the day at the European close.

European markets had closed near the session lows yesterday, with the STOXX 600 falling back -1.01%. The more externally-sensitive DAX (-1.06%) led the declines, while the FTSE 100 (-0.84%), CAC 40 (-0.67%) and FTSEMIB (-0.47%) were also all in the red. European bonds also saw a significant sell-off with yields on 10yr bunds rising +9.1bps to 3.08%, just 1bps below the post-2011 high they had reached on March 27. Yields on 10yr BTPs (+11.6bps) and OATs (+10.0bps) saw a larger sell-off amid the risk-off mood.

Over in the UK, 10yr gilts (+7.1bps to 4.90%) saw a slightly more modest sell-off as the final UK March services PMI was revised down from 51.2 to 50.5. That marked a sharper decline than seen in the euro area, where the final services PMI was revised a touch higher, from 50.1 to 50.2. Within the euro area data, there was a notable divergence between resilience in Spain (53.3 vs 51.9 previous, 50.6 expected) and a marked decline in Italy (48.8 vs 52.3 prev., 50.9 exp), which might reflect the fact that while both countries have adopted fiscal measures to reduce the costs of the energy shock, the scale of the Spanish response has been significantly larger.

When it comes to yesterday’s US data, the highlight was the latest weekly ADP employment numbers, which showed private job gains pick up to +26k on average for the four weeks ending on March 21. That marked the strongest print since ADP started publishing the weekly data last year and equates to over 100k in monthly job gains. So that added to the easing labour market concerns after the strong March payrolls reports on Friday. US February durable goods orders also looked solid, with ex-transport orders up +0.8% MoM (vs. +0.5% expected) and core shipments up +0.9% (vs. +0.4% exp.). Meanwhile, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations series jumped from +3.00% to +3.42% in March, though this was a touch below consensus (+3.50%) and below the levels it reached after the Liberation Day tariffs last spring (3.63%). We also got comments from NY Fed President Williams, who was relatively sanguine yesterday when he said that that the war might add a tenth or two to core inflation, and that the story around underlying inflation was not much changed.

Finally, in other overnight news the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its cash rate at 2.25% as expected. The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee noted a significant shift in the economic outlook amid higher energy prices, which are expected to push short-term inflation up while slowing economic activity. The yield on the 2yr government note is -4.2bps lower this morning, though this is mostly matching the move in Treasuries.

To the day ahead now, we’ll have UK March Construction PMI, Germany February factory orders, March construction PMI, France February trade balance, current account balance, Eurozone February PPI and retail sales. We’ll also get the March FOMC minutes

Goldman analysts warned that the petrochemical supply shock sweeping across Asia is now morphing into a full-blown COGS shock, hitting a range of industries with factories across the region. The immediate consequence is that manufacturers – from sofa makers to apparel producers – are being forced to dial back production and, in some cases, idle plants altogether as soaring petrochemical-linked input costs drive up the price of plastics and other key materials.

In the note “Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories“, we laid out earlier on Tuesday how the shock is unfolding.

Now, we focus on industries where the COGS shock is already forcing “surging input costs,” which are reducing manufacturing lines or idling plants and leading to possible shortages.

“With key raw materials and inputs such as PTA, Caprolactam, polyester, and polyamide up on average 29%, the implied COGS increase amounts to c. +17%,” Goldman analyst Georgina Fraser wrote in a note.

Fraser warned, “For a textile manufacturer operating with margins of ~5–15%, it is reasonable to assume that a cost shock of this magnitude could render operations uneconomic, leading to production standstills.”

Fraser outlined that the industries most affected by the COGS shock are:

• Furniture & bedding → costs up ~21%

• Consumer goods → 20%

• Healthcare equipment → ~19%

• Textiles/apparel → ~17%

“Even an imminent end to the conflict would not fully unwind the supply chain disruption already in motion,” she warned.

The note cited new indications that India’s textile production has “collectively moved to restrict operations to a single 12-hour shift per day.”

Taken together, the message is clear: supply-chain snarls may soon erupt across Asia (first outlined here). Reducing production lines and idling plants increases the risk of shortages across a broad range of Asian-produced consumer goods, from T-shirts to furniture.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German capital is hardly a hospitable place for entrepreneurs or founders. Ambitious individuals who aim to build a career outside the state subsidy system and establish their own livelihoods encounter, in this strangest of European capitals, an atmosphere of contempt and hostility.

Berlin politics, regardless of who is currently in power, fosters a culture of societal division. Parties spare no effort in masking the jointly caused economic and social distortions in the city with an endless media spectacle.

Unemployment rises—naturally, the entrepreneurs are blamed. Rents are unaffordable—it has, of course, nothing to do with open borders or mass immigration. Responsibility lies with the greed of landlords, who have elevated exploitation to their fundamental operating principle. In Berlin, apprenticeship positions are now scarce. Naturally, entrepreneurs are also blamed in this case. It could never be because politics, with its green ideological zeal, may have let the economy derail years ago.

To underline once again that Berlin is by no means willing to take responsibility for the visible crisis and instead prefers to put entrepreneurs in the pillory, the Berlin Senate has passed a corresponding law. Companies that fail to provide sufficient apprenticeship positions will be financially squeezed in the future.

Under the quaint title “Apprenticeship Promotion Fund Act” (AusbFFG), the all-knowing Berlin bureaucracy—yes, the same people who take six months to issue a new passport—will determine how many apprenticeship slots each company must offer.

The law was passed on March 26 and is set to take effect on January 1, 2028. Until then, the top economists and social-state engineers of the Red City Hall plan to complete the detailed calculations still required to determine the exact apprenticeship quota. The measure is based on each company’s gross wage sum.

In the eyes of typical Berlin socialists—and that includes all parties except the AfD—the economy is a monocausal monolith animated only by greed and profiteering, allowing the rule to be applied indiscriminately across all companies and sectors.

Naive, childish, maximally hostile: politics seeks conflict with entrepreneurs and investors because it knows that resentment in society always leaves a smoldering ember somewhere, which can be quickly fanned into a larger fire by the media. Berlin also knows very well that the country is heading for mass unemployment and that, should criticism or social unrest arise, a suitable lightning rod must always be at hand. Media-savvy tactics: debates on inheritance tax, the housing crisis, and the apprenticeship market are already being used to plant the narrative of the greedy failing entrepreneur in people’s minds.

It is shabby, socially destabilizing, but hardly surprising: socialist rot, indeed. This unreflective hatred, the agitation against the middle class and high achievers, forms socialism’s typical power source—resentment, cheap envy of others’ success. When this behavior is institutionalized in politics, it is a clear indicator of advanced societal and economic decay.

Berlin is long bankrupt. The neglect manifest across much of the city has become a visible hallmark of the unteachable nature of German socialists. Beyond Germany’s borders, one can study the societal decay of the country through its capital. A victim of Europe’s postmodern cultural rift, visible wherever open-border policies erode traditional cultural ferment, and where state bureaucracy thrives as the last line of defense for an impotent state apparatus that fears those whose social standing allows them to offer justified criticism of the visible rot in the community.

Certainly: the entrepreneurs, the self-employed, and investors are needed, only to have their financial resources extracted and the socialist experiment carried forward. That apprentices were chosen as vehicles for this plunder and media leverage comes as no surprise.

The political assault on entrepreneurs is now carried out on every possible level. The tighter the fiscal situation, the more aggressively politics lashes out. The logic is simple: those who do not follow the prescribed recipes and rules of politics—whether in training or emissions—are sanctioned. The complexity of the economy, differences in sectors, location, or individual businesses are ignored.

The gross wage sum becomes a moral metric, and the entrepreneur a prisoner of a political formula meticulously crafted in one of the countless party-state working groups.

Nowhere is this decay of German society more visible than in its parasitic capital, which hangs off the hinterland. The so-called Berlin political elite no longer claims to represent a societal engine of modernization and inspiration. Were it bold enough to present itself as a stabilizer of meritocratic values of performance and seriousness, it would be met only with biting mockery. Berlin remains Berlin, and its fundamental principle of rule is, quite Caesar-like: divida et impera—divide and rule, seek enemies that can be politically and media-wise exploited to distract from one’s own failures.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

At a time when waterways like the Strait of Hormuz have occupied almost every headline and have been the impetus behind a good portion of the ongoing conflict in Iran, Kraken Robotics has successfully completed a new demonstration of its autonomous mine countermeasure technology, highlighting the growing role of unmanned systems in maritime security.

The company announced that its KATFISH towed synthetic aperture sonar system, along with its autonomous launch and recovery system (LARS), was fully integrated and tested aboard SEFINE’s RD-22 unmanned surface vessel. The demonstration was carried out in partnership with SEFINE SISAM, the company’s Strategic Unmanned Systems Research Center, during the first quarter of 2026 off the coast of İstanbul, Türkiye.

The trial showcased how autonomous platforms can be used to detect and classify underwater threats more efficiently. According to Kraken Robotics, the exercise focused on identifying mine-like objects and monitoring critical subsea infrastructure—capabilities that are becoming increasingly important as global attention turns to protecting maritime routes and underwater assets.

Bernard Mills, Kraken’s Executive Vice President of Defence, said the demonstration reflects the urgent need for advanced tools to secure key waterways. He noted that combining SEFINE’s multi-role unmanned surface vessel with Kraken’s sonar and launch system allows navies to deploy high-performance mine countermeasure technologies more quickly and with greater flexibility.

During the test, the KATFISH system delivered high-resolution sonar imagery with precision down to 3 by 3 centimeters, scanning areas up to 200 meters on each side. The data was transmitted live to an onshore command center, where operators used SEFINE SISAM’s mission planning software to analyze and classify potential threats in real time.

The event drew representatives from multiple navies and government organizations, underscoring international interest in next-generation autonomous defence systems.

This latest demonstration builds on earlier trials conducted in November 2025, when the same KATFISH and LARS setup was deployed from a Royal Navy ARCIMS unmanned surface vessel. Together, these successful integrations mark a significant step toward more agile, modular, and cost-effective solutions for modern mine countermeasure operations.

Kraken Robotics develops advanced subsea technologies, including 3D imaging sensors, robotic systems, and power solutions designed to operate safely and efficiently in challenging ocean environments. Its portfolio—featuring synthetic aperture sonar, sub-bottom imaging, LiDAR, and high-density pressure-tolerant batteries—supports applications in ocean safety, infrastructure inspection, and subsea energy storage.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Mass immigration is once again exposing the true cost to British taxpayers, with UK schools now receiving a record £572 million to support pupils who do not speak English as their first language.

The bill has soared by £157 million since modern records began in 2020, according to Department for Education figures. This comes as the number of such pupils has climbed to 1.8 million – one in five children nationwide – up from 1.2 million a decade ago.

As revealed in a Daily Mail report, two schools alone – one in Manchester and one in Northampton – each collected at least £500,000 this year for translators, bilingual teaching assistants and support materials. Manchester Academy topped the list with over £670,000.

Schools are pocketing up to £700,000 each to teach pupils who don’t speak English as their first language as bill hits all-time high of £572million https://t.co/4CqpGL8bOG

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 4, 2026

The funding is not ring-fenced and councils admit it can be spent on “almost anything” within a school’s overall budget. Nationwide, the average payout sits at around £27,418 per school, or roughly £320 per eligible pupil.

This latest education bombshell ties directly into the wider crisis of unchecked migration straining every corner of British life.

As we’ve highlighted, migrants are set to swallow 40% of all new UK homes by 2030, based on Conservative analysis of Office for Budget Responsibility projections. 

With net migration forecast at 1.2 million between 2026 and 2030, around 500,000 extra homes will be needed just to house new arrivals – equating to nearly four in ten of all projected builds.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to taxpayer exploitation.

A whopping 1.3 million migrants are on Universal Credit, with over half unemployed – directly contradicting years of claims that immigration delivers a net economic boost.

Benefits costs have doubled in just five years, prompting Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to slam the prioritisation of migrant payouts over British pensioners.

A massive 1.158 million foreign claimants are draining public funds on an industrial scale

As we’ve further documented, small UK towns are finding themselves suddenly inundated with hundreds of illegal migrants and the social fallout is evident with foreigners accounting for 79 per cent of theft arrests and 40 per cent of violent suspects on UK trains, and migrants being 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than native Brits.

Back in the classroom, the education funding surge has sparked sharp criticism. Chris McGovern of the Campaign for Real Education told the Daily Mail: “Stop pitying them, we obsess about it far too much and we don’t need to fret about them – we need to worry about the white working-class kids.”

He added: “Of course children who don’t have the requisite English language skills need to be assimilated and have time and money spent but that should come before they enter the school system.”

McGovern continued: “We have consistent and obvious annual evidence that it is the white working-class children who perform worse and need numeracy and literacy support, if there is money to be going around. A lack of imagination is the big problem with the educational world but however we tackle it we need to focus on the right group – don’t pity the immigrant, they are the education system’s biggest success story.”

Just one in five white working-class pupils achieve a good pass in English and maths, compared to 45.4 per cent across all demographics. Yet the system continues to pour resources into English as an Additional Language (EAL) provision, which now features in Ofsted inspections.

A Department for Education spokesman responded: “Every child deserves a high-quality education, including children who speak English as an additional language. We trust schools, who know their pupils best, to make decisions about how to invest their funding to support every child while getting the best value for money from overall resources.”

Critics argue the real priority should be British children whose communities are being transformed beyond recognition. The same open-borders policies driving the housing crunch, welfare explosion and crime spikes are now turning classrooms into translation hubs at massive public expense.

Britain cannot keep subsidising mass immigration while its own working-class children and struggling towns are pushed to the back of the queue. The numbers don’t lie – and neither do the consequences.

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Russia has announced that it has successfully evacuated a last main group of Russian workers from Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which has been hit several times by US-Israeli strikes throughout the over one-month long war.

A group of 175 Russian employees of Rosatom Atomic Energy Corporation were evacuated via land route through northern Iran, before taking a flight out of the Armenian capital of Yerevan to Moscow.

According to TASS, “Earlier, Alexey Likhachev, director general of Russia’s Rosatom Atomic Energy Corporation, said that evacuation buses left the Bushehr facility about 20 minutes after a US strike hit the area on Saturday, and headed for the Iran-Armenia border.”

Moscow had requested that the US impose a ceasefire for the site while the Russian staff were evacuated. They were then driven to the Norduz-Agarak border crossing (a very long overland route). Already several rounds of Russians at Iran’s nuclear facilities were taken out of the country.

Russia’s foreign ministry thanked Armenian authorities “for their kind attitude and quick handling of exit procedures” for Rosatom personnel.

Apparently some key Russian personnel have agreed to stay at the facility. “Some of Rosatom’s personnel expressed readiness to continue working in Iran, Rosatom’s Likhachev had said on Sunday. The first power unit of the Bushehr NPP remains operational, Rosatom has also said.

As for the requested local ceasefire for the site, it’s unclear whether or not that was ever enacted. Israel has shown more of a penchant for hitting nuclear facilities in Iran of late.

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has also urged “maximum restraint” during the conflict in order to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident. 

Just like war in Ukraine has threatened nuclear power sites, so has the Iran conflict raised concerns over nuclear fallout and radiation – in the instance of a strike leading to major accident.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Travel is said to broaden the mind. At least, this wisdom applies to those willing to leave their routines behind and not stubbornly defend their claimed spot by the pool. In the case of Economics Minister Katharina Reiche, the “aha” moment arrived at breathtaking speed. She is currently traveling in North America, specifically in Ontario, Canada.

This week, the CDU politician toured the site of a so-called SMR, a small modular reactor. Apparently deeply impressed by the technology and the high efficiency of energy generation—which occurs almost emission-free and without waste—she came out on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference as a converted nuclear energy supporter.

As noted: travel broadens the mind. Little is known about the travel habits of her cabinet colleagues, yet it appears they prefer monotonous package trips over stimulating cultural journeys.

The contrast could hardly be greater:

Almost simultaneously, Environment Minister Carsten Schneider of the SPD presented a comprehensive set of measures to deepen the climate strategy. Schneider thereby proves that one can settle comfortably into a simulated pseudo-reality. Berlin mobilizes all resources to perpetuate the long-failed energy transition into the future. The return to nuclear power is not part of the plan.

German politics has become dysfunctional, having constructed an ideologically dystopian pseudo-world whose stimulus-response patterns are no longer causally connected to the surrounding environment.

The devastating signals from the German economy—the ongoing insolvencies and job cuts, clearly linked to the energy crisis and disastrous climate policies—are shielded from public scrutiny by political protective membranes.

It almost seems as if the Berlin Degrowth Club is actively wishing for deindustrialization to free up capacity for its own clientelist networks. The climate plan complements this green control ideology precisely.

An astounding 67 points make up this expanded action framework, designed to help Germany reach its target and cut CO2 emissions by 80% by 2030.

By then, Schneider must cut an additional 25 million tons of CO2 to meet the ambitious deindustrialization goals. Environmental groups find the plan far from sufficient, and their criticism was immediate.

The Thunberg faction of Fridays for Future appeared visibly dissatisfied with the minister’s presentation. The German Environmental Aid (DUH), always present when it comes to taxing German taxpayers and pushing entire industries over the cliff with an army of lawyers, voiced even sharper criticism.

It threatened to take the government to court if the 2030 climate target is not met.

The situation highlights the precarious position of the Federal Republic. By enshrining the Net-Zero target in the constitution, the party cartel has embedded a suicidal time bomb deep within the state’s foundations. DUH careerists now hold the fuse, using it as leverage to maximize Germany’s decline.

A battlefield, then, for the eco-socialist NGO complex, whose parliamentary arm, Green faction leader Katharina Dröge, called Schneider’s climate program a brazen deception. Apparently, more is never enough; Schneider nevertheless offered a lifeline for companies thriving on the endless subsidies of the green machinery.

The highly subsidized wind sector alone is set to expand by 2,000 additional large turbines by 2030. These are unmistakable signs of the green triumph, disfiguring the landscape with potentially enormous aesthetic losses.

In addition, the existing infrastructure of over 200,000 electric vehicle charging stations is set to be massively expanded with public funds. Nine million private parking spaces, Schneider notes, could be integrated into the EV network. Naturally, all funded by taxpayers.

The federal government is providing an additional €8 billion on top of existing subsidies, including purchase incentives for 800,000 EVs. Still not enough for the green subsidy hunters? The answer is likely a firm no.

The enormous green complex is accustomed to billions in subsidies. Criticism from environmental groups is therefore almost understandable—they crave ever higher doses.

That public budgets are rapidly deteriorating in the recession is irrelevant to these circles. In the heart of the saturated NGO complex and climate industry, there is plenty of excess—funded by the anonymous army of taxpayers, the very people met with maximum contempt.

Ignoring criticism from his own ranks, Schneider defends his program. It will supposedly deliver a boost to climate protection and reduce dependence on expensive and unreliable oil and gas imports. The plan is projected to save seven billion cubic meters of natural gas and roughly four billion liters of gasoline annually.

If policymakers stick to Agenda 2030, no additional measures will be needed. Fuel, heating, and vacations will become luxury goods in an increasingly pauperized society, with consumption naturally declining. One can rightly say: the climate agenda works. It is fatal, yet highly effective.

Geopolitical strategy, ecological ambition, and energy efficiency merge in Berlin’s fantasy world into yet another guillotine descending on the German middle class.

According to the Environment Ministry, the plan serves multiple purposes. It is meant to pacify the militant NGO complex, pushing for faster industrial destruction, while Berlin naively assumes the majority of Germans still do not see through the political camouflage behind the CO2 narrative. Thus, officials are convinced that by preaching a fusion of ecology and economy, they can deliver a small economic miracle.

Finally, it should be noted: The CO2 saved in Germany will immediately contribute to dirtier industrial production elsewhere, yet the Berlin climate clan does not care. In the land of unlimited green subsidies, the extraction machine runs at full speed, and the chancellor was wrong to claim the lemon had been fully squeezed. Germany is only at the beginning.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination