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Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives

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Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives
Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives

Update(1635): Somewhat surprisingly, Iran appears ready to be flexible concerning its conditions and matters of the timeline related to the Hormuz crisis and standoff with US forces:

Iran Says It Could Accept Shortening Proposed Seven-Day Deadline if Conditions Are Met

In Tehran on Monday, Iran informed delegates from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan that it is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in four to seven days if the US lifts its blockade.

State media cited Supreme National Security Council official Ali Bagheri Kani as confirming the flexible timeline, adding that diplomats are now organizing the next round of negotiations.

Riyadh is meanwhile stressing de-escalation:

The Saudi Foreign Ministry has stressed “the importance of opening channels of negotiation to prevent a return to military escalation” following a meeting of senior officials from the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement states with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday.

Tuesday will witness a big meeting in Moscow: President Vladimir Putin is due to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in the Russian capital.

*  *  *

There are many indicators that the US and Israel could soon attack Iran again, with media consensus in the US pointing to the likelihood of a renewed bombing campaign after the midterm elections.

In the interim, regional countries are scrambling for a diplomatic breakthrough, seeking to stave off the next escalation round, given also that past Iranian retaliation has imposed a huge cost on America’s Gulf allies.

via Associated Press

Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran for high level talks, the deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, has confirmed Monday.

This includes Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Commander General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin – who will engage the Iranian side on “regional security”.

Notably, these three countries are signatories to the Mecca Defense Pact and are also allies of the United States, with Turkey being a NATO member.

Iran’s Bagheri stated, “The Islamic Republic of Iran’s model of defense based on internal and domestic capabilities has become a successful model for building national security.”

“On the other hand, Iran’s strategic policy is to ensure regional security through regional countries and confront any foreign interference and influence, led by the American and Zionist regimes,” he added.

Bagheri praised the “fruit of the heroic efforts and struggles of the armed forces and the Iranian nation” and expressed hope that Iranian resistance to US-Israeli aims would result in a “region with stability and peace and on the path of progress.”

Reuters has cited a senior Iranian official who says the meeting was initiated by Pakistan.

Jason Brodsky, a hawkish think tank pundit, has reacted to the diplomatic scramble in Tehran:

The stories write themselves at this point. I would not be surprised to see a last minute call from regional countries to President Trump pleading for a delay in any military operation against Iran, citing that progress is just around the corner on negotiations or deal that will later fall apart.

Over the weekend, just prior to the Mecca Pact countries’ delegations going to Tehran, Qatari mediators were also once again in the Iranian capital to “de-escalate regional tensions.“

Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that the White House has plans to relaunch major attacks on Iran, and that more American forces are being deployed to the Middle East, so that strikes against Iran could be carried out “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from the president.

According to that reporting:

Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.

But it remains the that US administration has yet to define the end goal or ‘mission accomplished’ moment, now in month eight of what was supposed to be a “two to four-week” conflict. So far, escalation has tended to simply beget more escalation, and not an offramp.

A major new bombing campaign would put immensely more pressure on Iran, but would do the same for America’s Gulf allies, given they would probably face a huge wave of retaliation from the IRGC in the form of ballistic missiles and drones.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 16:40

Senators Say Trump Admin Is Illegally Sitting On Secret Court Ruling About Warrantless Spying

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Senators Say Trump Admin Is Illegally Sitting On Secret Court Ruling About Warrantless Spying
Senators Say Trump Admin Is Illegally Sitting On Secret Court Ruling About Warrantless Spying

Democrat Senators Ron Wyden and Adam Schiff say the Trump administration is illegally withholding a secret surveillance-court ruling that faulted how intelligence analysts search Americans’ messages, while pressing Congress to renew the program the ruling covers. The two lawmakers laid out the charge in a demand letter first reported by WIRED.

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court issued the opinion on March 17, according to Nextgov. It objected to search filters that let analysts pull Americans’ communications out of intercepted data without the approvals, written justifications and records the law requires, WIRED reports, and then approved another year of Section 702 surveillance anyway. The law gives the government 180 days to review a ruling like this for public release. That window closed September 13. The administration’s own guidance says the same.

The senators want an explanation for the delay, and the names of the officials responsible, by November 6. “If this administration won’t follow this simple statutory directive,” they wrote to Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton and Attorney General Todd Blanche, “it is unclear why Congress or the American people should trust this administration to follow any of the other legal limits to Section 702.” The letter is dated Monday, and Demand Progress and 22 other groups, from the ACLU to a conservative-backed privacy group, urged congressional leaders not to renew the program while the ruling stays buried.

It is not the first deadline to pass. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton and Vice Chairman Mark Warner asked the administration in April to release the opinion within 15 days. Demand Progress said in May that the 15 days came and went with nothing declassified.

AG Todd Blanche (via AP)

Blanche was asked in writing in July whether he would commit to declassifying it by the 180-day mark. His answer, in his written responses, was “Yes.” Clayton, who as DNI is legally responsible, has made no such promise. Before his confirmation he said only that the government was “working arduously to expeditiously declassify” the opinion and had given the full text to lawmakers. Warner’s office told WIRED he expects Clayton to declassify it, as required by law. Cotton’s office did not respond, and the White House, the DNI’s office and the Justice Department did not answer WIRED’s questions.

The opinion is still secret, but pieces of it have leaked. The New York Times reported in April that the court found the tools agencies use to narrow intercepted data to an American’s messages amount to searches of Americans, subject to the same limits, and ordered them rebuilt. Nextgov said it could not independently confirm that account. Administration talking points sent to lawmakers said only that the court found the proposed approach “could present deficiencies.” Senator Alex Padilla has said the Justice Department is appealing portions of the ruling that limit its use of certain filtering tools.

The ruling has a history. A declassified 2025 court opinion described a similar FBI tool that let agents select people in contact with surveillance targets and read their messages. The Justice Department told the court in February 2025 that searches through it had gone uncounted, and the FBI switched it off, then back on later in the year with a rebuilt version.

The report also notes that seven intelligence-agency fact sheets issued in March, one dated the day of the ruling, cited a 98.9 percent compliance rate for FBI searches of Americans and never mention the court’s findings. The figure does not appear in the Justice Department inspector general’s review, which put compliance at 98.6 percent and said it could not conclude the FBI’s compliance problems were “entirely in the past.” The same fact sheets say FBI auditors review every search of Americans, WIRED reports, while FBI Director Kash Patel closed the bureau’s Office of Internal Auditing last May.

Lawmakers who have read the ruling say it matters. Senator Dick Durbin told colleagues on the Senate floor in June that once they read it, “your opinion of the role of FISA and the rights of Americans will be impacted for sure.” Wyden has said that when a separate classified interpretation of Section 702 is finally declassified, “the American people are going to be stunned that it took so long.”

The program itself lapsed in June after Congress failed to renew it, though collection continues under the court’s March approval, which runs to next March. Trump said earlier that he would not approve FISA without the SAVE America Act going along with it, and intelligence officials are now pressing lawmakers to renew Section 702 by year-end. Reform advocates expect the administration to try to attach a renewal to the annual defense bill, which Congress usually finishes in December, as lawmakers did in 2023. The administration has until November 6 to answer the senators.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 16:40

Kunstler: “It’s All A Giant Mind-F**k”

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Kunstler: “It’s All A Giant Mind-F**k”
Kunstler: “It’s All A Giant Mind-F**k”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

“We are also starting to consult federal workers on how to do some blocking inside the govt agencies during emergency situations – but please do not put that on the form.”

– Eric Manton, of the DRG

They put it on the form, though, cuz somebody screwed up. Oopsie. . . .

Color Revolution Ninja, the Lovely Danielle Reiff

Get this: the reason that a color revolution is underway at all in America is not really political anymore – if it ever even was. It’s because a whole lot of people have committed crimes against this country. And with each wave of attempted sedition, they have compounded their crimes with more seditious acts, arrant hoaxes, lawfare, election fraud, censorship, and wholesale looting of taxpayer dollars to keep themselves out of prison.

That’s what USAID was all about, and why it was taken down early in Trump 2.0. It was a nexus of racketeering and the home-base of the Deep State’s foot soldiers, bureaucrats who actually managed the money streams to NGOs that ran everything from election rigging operations to vast social services fraud in blue states, in concert with a Democratic Party that had nothing but rackets to keep it going.

That’s how the USAID’s defunct office of Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) has morphed into the new Democracy Renewal Group (DRG). This new DRG operates under another project called Branch-4 – as in a fourth branch of government, the permanent bureaucracy – and Branch-4 operates under an NGO called the Action Center on Race and the Economy Institute (ACRE Institute), a 501(c)(3) public charity based in Chicago (EIN 82-1199695). Note, the ACRE Institute’s primary funders include the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. You see how byzantine this is, echoing exactly the hyper-complex administrative workings of government bureaucracy itself?

And so, that’s why, for instance, one Eric Manton, a former USAID employee now working with DRG said, “. . . we are also starting to consult federal workers on how to do some blocking inside the govt agencies during emergency situations.” Blocking? What they mean by that is federal employees lodged in the official agencies should “help run out the clock. . . develop selective hearing. . . forgetfulness. . . or blame your workload” for whatever it takes to block enforcement of any executive action proposed by the Trump administration.

Those tactics are explicitly proposed by another org, the Federal Workers Alliance for Democracy (FWAD formerly known as Federal Workers Against DOGE), which is affiliated with DRG primarily as a partner in the Renew American Democracy (RAD) strategy and through the broader Branch-4 ecosystem. Confused yet? You should be. The flak-storm of acronyms is beloved by Lefty-leftists for exactly that purpose.

RAD is run by Danielle Reiff, a 20-year veteran of USAID color revolution programs in Europe and Africa. Her co-coordinator at RAD is one Paul Zeitz, an osteopath and rabbi who worked previously for USAID in Africa and for the State Department as Director of the Data Revolution for Sustainable Development, whatever that was. FWAD is led by one Beverly Schreiber

You might ask: why has the FBI not paid a visit to Beverley Schreiber to assess how she is organizing her members to “block” actions that the chief executive orders agencies to carry out? The Federal Workers Alliance for Democracy must have a membership list. If their mission is to block the work of their agencies, as explicitly directed by FWAD, shouldn’t they be fired from their jobs?

And let’s not leave out a few other sketchy orgs and their leaders: Erica Chenoweth, who operates the United Democracy Alliance (UAD) out of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, which likewise operates under the “umbrella” of the Horizon Project, led by Maria J. Stephan and Julia Roig. Stephan was lead foreign affairs officer in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (whatever that means), roughly 2009-2014. She was also co-director the Future of Authoritarianism Initiative at the Atlantic Council, which is funded by George Soros’s Open Society org. Julia Roig was President and CEO of PartnersGlobal, funded by USAID, the State Dept., the Ford Foundation, and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation.

What you see is a concoction of intertwined subversive endeavors with more gears and escapements than a Schwarzwald cuckoo clock, all operating under the banner of “Our Democracy,” by which they really mean their prerogative to run your world (and punish you for objecting). This includes running a coup against the current chief executive of the USA. Much of this information has been uncovered by the tireless and diligent researcher Jennica Pounds, known as Data Republican on X. She remarked Monday morning: “What makes 2026 different is that it’s the first time we know of that we found an operational, short-term plan to actually do a coup.”

Coincidentally, weird, coup-ish events played out yesterday in the Brazilian election. A judge who had been President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s personal lawyer ordered the polls to stay open an additional two hours until enough votes were “found” to haul Lula across the victory line over his opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. Chalk one up for the Globalists. Call it a DoorDash color revolution. Bolsonaro has refused to concede and is officially contesting the election. Expect street demonstrations by Bolsonaro supporters over this caper. Perhaps riots. Maybe Lula getting strung up Mussolini-style.

American coupsters will point to that as evidence that Trump supporters will riot after the US midterms. It’s all a giant mindfuck. Meanwhile, our coupsters have been outed. We know who they are and what they’re up to. And we are all waiting to see what federal law enforcement aims to do about it.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 16:20

Foreign Demand Craters For Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction Ahead Of Fed Decision

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Foreign Demand Craters For Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction Ahead Of Fed Decision
Foreign Demand Craters For Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction Ahead Of Fed Decision

A week that sees a barrage of macro news, earnings, political developments, capital markets events including the massive Anthropic IPO offering doc and a record equity offering by Meta, also has a flood of coupon issuance to contend with starting with today’s $69BN in 2Y paper which sold to tepid demand ahead of this week’s FOMC decision. 

Let’s see how the auction did, starting with the high yield 4.708% which was modestly below last month’s 4.787% which was the highest since June 2024. This tailed the When Issued 4.705% by 0.3 bps, the biggest tail since March. 

The bid to cover was  2.589, down from 2.627 last month and the lowest since also March, when it dipped to 2.440.

But it was the internals where the biggest surprise, or rather disappointment, was to be found, as foreigners (Indirects) took down just 45.7%, a sharp drop from the 57.8% in September and the lowest since November 2021. Offsetting this collapse in foreign demand was a surge in Direct demand which sent the Direct bid sharply higher from 29.0% to 41.3%, the highest on record…

… leaving 13.0% to Dealers, or roughly in line with recent activity.

Overall, this was a surprisingly poor auction, which tailed the 2nd most of 2026, but judging by the dramatic collapse in foreign demand, it is almost surprising the results weren’t far worse. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 16:17

Trump Posts Longest Truth Social Rant Of His Career – 1,300 Words At Bill Maher

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Trump Posts Longest Truth Social Rant Of His Career – 1,300 Words At Bill Maher
Trump Posts Longest Truth Social Rant Of His Career – 1,300 Words At Bill Maher

President Donald Trump posted the longest message of his social media career on Sunday night, a rant of more than 1,300 words on Truth Social aimed at HBO host Bill Maher, two days after Maher defended his second White House dinner with him on air. At just over 1,300 words, it’s Trump’s longest ever. 

“Let’s talk about this COMPLETE AND TOTAL LOSER, Bill Maher,” Trump began, calling Maher’s show “Low Rated” on “equally Low Rated HBO.” Later he called Maher a “major POTHEAD,” a “coward” and a “dumb SLEAZEBAG,” and closed: “You’re not transformative, you’re a Loser!”

The trigger was Friday’s “Real Time,” Maher’s first show since the dinner, which CNN dates to Oct. 15. Maher opened by telling his audience, “You know what? Fuck you. I like these dinners,” and said he goes in and tells Trump “face-to-face” what he writes “in articles he’ll never read.”

Maher posted the opening bit himself on X the next day, telling of the thrill of being announced at the White House with an aide saying, “Sir, your 7 o’clock low-ratings dummy is here.”

Trump beef is apparently is over the evening itself. Maher says the dinner ran four hours; Trump says it lasted “two hours, maybe less,” and that “We have the timestamps.” He wrote that he “learned nothing, and felt it was a waste of time,” and that Maher “invited himself.” He also claimed Maher “was drunk and had alcohol in his hand as he walked through the White House.” Maher had not answered that as of Monday.

The post then wandered through a list of grievances with Maher’s show. Trump said Maher “lied about all of the Illegal Voters” in California, adding “they found 20,000, and the number could easily go to over 1,000,000.” He also said that Maher “attacked our Great Republican Candidates, when he knows my Endorsement Record is 98% in the House, and 100% in the Senate,” and that the show was unfair to Karoline Leavitt, who appeared as a guest.

Buried in the middle was a bit of actual news. “I am not building a swimming pool in the White House Briefing Room, and never had any intention of doing so,” Trump wrote, “I am thinking about moving the Press, and putting them in a different location.” CNN noted that the post confirms he has considered moving the press corps out of its White House workspace.

He ended with orders. “Bill: Don’t call anymore. It’s useless,” he wrote, said he would “never watch it again,” and added, “I’m going to have the Republicans not cover you anymore.”

Maher had not responded as of Monday morning, and the White House simply pointed Fox News Digital back to the post. Critics on the left jumped on the length, with Mediaite rounding up reaction under the heading “Mental Deterioration!”

It is a sharp turn from how Trump described the evening at the time. After the dinner, which also included Kid Rock and Stephen A. Smith, he told reporters Maher “likes me a lot more than people understand” and that it “was a very informative dinner,” according to Fox News.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 15:40

French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest

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French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest
French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

More than 1,300 people were arrested in another day of protests and riots, after a mass march in Paris a day earlier, according to authorities in France.

The French Interior Ministry said officials responded to 75 fires during Saturday’s riots, and added that 24 shops were looted, reported the AFP news agency.

“Several investigations have been opened,” the ministry said, adding that clashes had died down later on Saturday, the report said.

Overall, 1,314 arrests were made in the weekend protests, the ministry said, according to AFP.

In a statement on Saturday, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said he wanted to “salute the exceptional commitment and professionalism of all the regional prefects, prefects, police officers, gendarmes, and firefighters mobilized across France to ensure the safety of our fellow citizens and allow the processions to proceed smoothly.”

“But notably in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Angers, Lille, and many other cities, individuals from the ultra-left and radical far-left have once again sought to sow disorder, particularly during the dispersal of the processions,” he continued. “These acts are unacceptable.”

The minister added that he backs police officers and other French security officials who were injured Saturday, but didn’t provide specifics.

“The violence inflicted on the internal security forces, once again, is intolerable,” he said, according to a translation. “They are deliberately targeted because of their uniforms and, above all, because they are the bulwarks of our Republic that these radical militants seek to bring down.”

More than a month of unrest that started with protests in high schools for more funding and teachers is testing President Emmanuel Macron’s authority in the final months of his presidency before voters choose his successor in May 2027.

The stakes are high: The right-wing National Rally party has accused his government of failing to protect the public and urged people to channel their anger into votes for its candidate, Marine Le Pen. On the left, presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has backed demonstrators and criticized policing that has left some protesters with life-changing injuries.

In the United States, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have said that riots, looting, and violence were the result of mass immigration policies and France and across Europe.

Trump has also warned that if Republicans don’t win in the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, then similar chaos could emerge in the United States.

Speaking in a Kansas rally to boost GOP candidates last week, the U.S. president warned that France is “being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground” by migrants who “hate, frankly, the Western civilization itself.”

The president was referring to protests earlier this week that devolved into mayhem, with people setting fires, storming public buildings, smashing shop windows, looting, and clashing with police. It was noted as France’s most violent unrest in years.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 10:50

“You Have This Superpower”: Jury Nullification Becomes The Latest Attack On The Court System

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“You Have This Superpower”: Jury Nullification Becomes The Latest Attack On The Court System
“You Have This Superpower”: Jury Nullification Becomes The Latest Attack On The Court System

Authored by Jonathan Turley via Jonathan Turley,

“You have this superpower.”

That statement from Qiana Johnson is part of reported training material for residents to engage in “jury nullification,” whereby jurors ignore the law and incriminating facts in a given case to nullify any prosecution.

Notably, Johnson is the newly elected clerk of Prince George’s County Circuit Court in the Maryland suburbs of Washington. She is part of a growing left-wing movement gaining traction with voters that calls for radical changes to the U.S. legal system.

The effort is to engineer “Twelve Angry Men” scenarios on real juries – but unlike in the movie, the jurors are actually being trained to ignore evidence and deliberations in favor of political outcomes.

In her election campaign for her current job, Johnson had to overcome questions about her own criminal record. But many voters are willing to give others a second chance when they show evidence of rehabilitation and contrition. The more immediate concern might be embracing a practice that is expressly barred by courts.

Johnson is part of a new investigation by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee into groups training citizens to engage in jury nullification – including Free DC and Harriet’s Wildest Dreams, where Johnson was reportedly a board member.

One such document allegedly declares, “You have this superpower, and that superpower is you are able to nullify that goddamn jury.”

Far-left professors have long advocated that juries use jury nullification. Georgetown Law professor and MSNBC legal analyst Paul Butler has long advocated that Black jurors engage in nullification in cases involving Black defendants. Butler wrote in the Washington Post in 2016: “Confronting the racial crisis in criminal justice, jury nullification gives jurors a special power to send the message that Black lives matter.”

The problem of biased jurors has long plagued the legal system. It can work both ways in ignoring the law to refuse or secure convictions. Past cases involving President Trump and other Republicans have raised bias concerns over the jury pool in cities such as Washington, D.C., and New York City.

But jury nullification is different; it is a direct assault on the very foundation of the American court system. The juror is the thumping heart of that system – a group of empowered citizens who swear to consider cases without prejudice or prejudgment.

It is not a crime to advocate jury nullification. Moreover, there are legitimate concerns raised by investigations into such groups. about chilling the rights of free speech and association. In my view, such advocacy is protected speech under the First Amendment.

But that is not always the case for lawyers, who can face professional consequences. Many courts bar lawyers from arguing for jury nullification. Calling for jury nullification can also present sanctionable conduct for lawyers in a given case.

Even if this is protected speech, voices in both parties need to denounce these efforts. It effectively encourages jurors to lie when they take their oath to follow the law and to shed any outside bias or prejudgment. It is an effort to enlist jurors in using cases to achieve political and social goals at the expense of the rule of law.

The professors and pundits supporting these campaigns are actively seeking a hostile takeover of the courts without explaining to these citizens the implications of such dishonesty. Indeed, Comer has detailed how groups like Freedom Trainers are allegedly seeking to enlist potential jurors while, according to the committee, instructing trainees not to “signal the agenda.”

Instead of addressing the impact of politicizing our jurors, these groups are portraying nullification as “a powerful tool for ensuring fairness and justice.”

These efforts are coming at a time of full assault on our judicial system from the left. Leading Democrats are calling for the packing of the Supreme Court, to reverse decisions with which they disagree. Every leading Democratic candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination has now thrown the court to the baying mob.

Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is only the most recent, declaring, “We should seriously look at expanding the court while the Democrats are in power.”

From the trial jury to the Supreme Court, many on the left now seek to take control of institutions that have long been the rock of this Republic. If successful, justice will become merely an extension of politics.

What is so disconcerting is that there is no longer any pretense of principle. Law professors are demanding that pledges to pack the Court be used as litmus tests for politicians, and senators are calling for an instant liberal majority on the Court to carry out the “will of the people.”

Liberal professors have long demanded revolutionary change to “reclaim America from constitutionalism.”

The attack on the American jury may be the most insidious of these efforts. Our legal system invests average citizens with the power to do justice. Every community plays a role in upholding the principles of blind justice. As with court-packing, jury nullification is a previously odious practice now being portrayed as a noble cause. It is part of the conditioning of voters to accept foundational changes to our constitutional system, to further a radical agenda harmful to the nation.

The juror’s role was indeed a “superpower,” but not the one these professors and pundits are pushing. It was a power against prejudice and partisanship; it was the power of doing simple justice in a nation committed to the rule of law.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 10:20

Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window

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Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window
Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window

There are many indicators that the US and Israel could soon attack Iran again, with media consensus in the US pointing to the likelihood of a renewed bombing campaign after the midterm elections.

In the interim, regional countries are scrambling for a diplomatic breakthrough, seeking to stave off the next escalation round, given also that past Iranian retaliation has imposed a huge cost on America’s Gulf allies.

via Associated Press

Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran for high level talks, the deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, has confirmed Monday.

This includes Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Commander General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin – who will engage the Iranian side on “regional security”.

Notably, these three countries are signatories to the Mecca Defense Pact and are also allies of the United States, with Turkey being a NATO member.

Iran’s Bagheri stated, “The Islamic Republic of Iran’s model of defense based on internal and domestic capabilities has become a successful model for building national security.”

“On the other hand, Iran’s strategic policy is to ensure regional security through regional countries and confront any foreign interference and influence, led by the American and Zionist regimes,” he added.

Bagheri praised the “fruit of the heroic efforts and struggles of the armed forces and the Iranian nation” and expressed hope that Iranian resistance to US-Israeli aims would result in a “region with stability and peace and on the path of progress.”

Reuters has cited a senior Iranian official who says the meeting was initiated by Pakistan.

Jason Brodsky, a hawkish think tank pundit, has reacted to the diplomatic scramble in Tehran:

The stories write themselves at this point. I would not be surprised to see a last minute call from regional countries to President Trump pleading for a delay in any military operation against Iran, citing that progress is just around the corner on negotiations or deal that will later fall apart.

Over the weekend, just prior to the Mecca Pact countries’ delegations going to Tehran, Qatari mediators were also once again in the Iranian capital to “de-escalate regional tensions.“

Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that the White House has plans to relaunch major attacks on Iran, and that more American forces are being deployed to the Middle East, so that strikes against Iran could be carried out “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from the president.

According to that reporting:

Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.

But it remains the that US administration has yet to define the end goal or ‘mission accomplished’ moment, now in month eight of what was supposed to be a “two to four-week” conflict. So far, escalation has tended to simply beget more escalation, and not an offramp.

A major new bombing campaign would put immensely more pressure on Iran, but would do the same for America’s Gulf allies, given they would probably face a huge wave of retaliation from the IRGC in the form of ballistic missiles and drones.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 10:05

Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks Collapse, Real Plunges As ‘Bolsonaro Trade’ Implodes

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Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks Collapse, Real Plunges As ‘Bolsonaro Trade’ Implodes
Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks Collapse, Real Plunges As ‘Bolsonaro Trade’ Implodes

Summary:

  • Ibovespa Stock Index Plunges 20%, Triggers Circuit Breaker 
  • Real Crashes 11% To 5.58/USD
  • Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula’s Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff

Market Shock

Brazilian assets crashed after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro unraveled bullish bets across local stocks and the real. A controversial last-minute, two-hour voting extension has prompted Bolsonaro to call for the runoff to be annulled.

“Needless to say, the outcome caught most of the market by surprise, with President Lula completing a major turnaround and winning the runoff,” UBS analyst Daniel Pompiani told clients earlier this morning.

The real plunged as much as 11% this morning, while longer-dated interest-rate swap contracts surged almost 300 basis points after hitting trading limits.

Exchange operator B3 widened trading limits for currency, interest-rate, and stock futures for Monday’s regular session to accommodate the volatility. Brazilian stocks last triggered a circuit breaker during the COVID crash in early 2020.

Ibovespa stock-index futures plunged 20%, prompting warnings from trading desks and triggering a circuit-breaker halt.

Traders had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory after his first-round lead sparked a rally and attracted billions in foreign inflows. After Lula’s victory, JPMorgan analysts downgraded their outlook on Brazil’s currency and rates from overweight to market-weight.

“The post-election message of the market is clear: There is no vacation time for the next four years, and the country will need to address the fiscal issue,” said Peter Varga, a senior portfolio manager at Erste Asset Management.

UBS’ Pompiani asked:

Will the BCB intervene? It is very likely, but probably not right at the open. The BCB usually monitors flows and overall market conditions before stepping in, as its focus tends to be on market dysfunction rather than defending a specific level. The first move should be violent, but price discovery will be difficult. With liquidity thin and positioning caught offside, headline levels may matter less than where the market can actually clear risk.

Société Générale analyst Brendan McKenna told clients, “Don’t call it a comeback, Lula’s been here for years.” 

McKenna provided clients with five key points:

1. Lula’s victory in the runoff of Brazil’s presidential election marks an abrupt end to Latin America’s conservative wave and a shift away from the right side of the political spectrum. What began as anti-incumbent sentiment driven by rising crime, corruption, and inflation ultimately culminated in strong support for Lula and his policy platform. While most Latin American countries will continue to be governed by conservative administrations, the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will be led by left-leaning governments. The Latin America election calendar is lighter in 2027 highlighted by general elections in Argentina toward the end of next year. We cannot help but wonder if Brazil pushing back on the right is an indication for a return to Peronism in Argentina or the start of the broader Latam pendulum swinging back left

2. Regardless of whether Brazil’s election marks an inflection point in regional politics, financial market contagion from Lula’s re-election across Latin America should be limited. Brazil’s financial markets are likely to come under significant pressure at the open; however, with most Latin American elections already behind us and many countries having secured more market-friendly policy platforms, we believe any Lula-induced selloff is likely to remain largely idiosyncratic to Brazil rather than trigger region-wide contagion. Argentina may be more vulnerable to spillover effects as regional markets have already demonstrated unease regarding President Milei potentially not being re-elected in 2027. Brazil rejecting a platform similar in style to President Milei could prompt more concern across Argentine local markets, but the extent of any spillover from Brazil’s election should be contained to Buenos Aires.

3. Fiscal discipline is likely to prove more elusive under another Lula administration, and we see little reason to expect a meaningful fiscal adjustment during a fourth Lula term. That said, Lula will face a right-leaning Congress that could constrain his ability to further loosen fiscal policy. A bond market and currency that remain under pressure could also force the government to adopt a more pragmatic fiscal stance to reassure investors, similar to Lula’s efforts to pursue spending restraint after market pressures intensified in late 2024. Should Vice President Alckmin assume a more prominent role in Economy Ministry, and if Finance Minister Durigan continues to emphasize fiscal responsibility, financial markets may stabilize relatively quickly. However, achieving a peak in government debt ratios is likely to remain challenging.

4. Brazil’s Local market selling is likely to be severe, but we will primarily be looking for opportunities to buy BRL. A Lula victory is likely to embed a political risk premium in the currency; however, BRL’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. The real continues to benefit from elevated real interest rate differentials, a manageable current account position, and a central bank with adequate foreign exchange reserves and a demonstrated willingness to deploy them to support financial market and FX stability. In addition, BRL may benefit from the presence of a conservative-leaning Congress that could constrain any efforts by President Lula to further loosen fiscal policy. Should Vice President Alckmin be appointed economy minister and Finance Minister Durigan remain in his role, markets may also take comfort in the continuity and elevated prominence of a technocratic economic team. Our range to watch is BRL5.70-BRL5.75. We would view USDBRL in that range as more interesting to engage in tactical trades to express potentially oversold conditions.

5. Rates may be a little trickier, as the upcoming BRL selloff is likely to push near-term inflation expectations higher, on top of an IPCA trajectory that was already expected to firm through the end of this year and into early 2027. SG Economics now forecasts a slower and shallower Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) easing cycle, which could keep the Selic rate above current market expectations through the end of 2028. As a result, the popular pre-runoff receiver trade may face headwinds for a more extended period, particularly relative to FX markets. Rates pressure should be felt across the curve, but the longer end of the curve should feel pressured most acutely given renewed fiscal concerns associated with the Lula administration. For now, our focus remains on identifying attractive BRL entry points rather than expressing bullish views through rates markets.

Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula’s Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff 

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said overnight that he would seek to annul the presidential runoff, challenging a last-minute, two-hour voting extension granted at the request of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign. The order came from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s former personal attorney, whom the president appointed to the high court. Lula later won the runoff after Bolsonaro finished first in the first round earlier this month, setting the stage for a legal challenge to the court’s questionable intervention.

According to the electoral court, Lula was re-elected for a record fourth term on Sunday, taking 51.76% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 48.24% in a surprise outcome.

Via Bloomberg:

Bolsonaro said, “It is impossible to recognize the election outcome given the circumstances in which all of this took place,” adding, “We will pursue legal action and seek to have the election annulled.”

Trump:

Greta received her talking points:

The questionable voting-extension ruling came minutes after polling stations nationwide were scheduled to close at 5 p.m. local time. Zanin later clarified that it applied only to polling stations that remained open.

UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients, “Flavio’s annulment request is unlikely to hold water given his campaign also asked for additional time in specific states that were impacted by adverse weather.”

The focus now shifts to Brazilian markets, where the “Bolsonaro trade” has reversed and shares of companies across the banking, steel and metals, and oil and gas sectors have plunged:

BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS

US-listed shares in lenders fall: Banco Bradesco -27%, Itau Unibanco Holding -28%, NU Holdings -22%, Inter & Co. -32%, Banco Santander (Brasil) -11%

Among other financial firms: PagSeguro Digital -28%, StoneCo -31%, PicS -27% 

STEEL, METAL & MINING 

Among movers: Companhia Siderurgica Nacional -13%, Vale -7.7%, Gerdau S.A. -14% AERO, 

OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS

Among other movers: XP Inc. -39%, Ambev -19%, Embraer -2.6%, MercadoLibre -2.6%, Telefonica Brasil -16%, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais -15%, Companhia Paranaense de Energia -17%, Petroleo Brasileiro -19%, Ultrapar Participacoes -18%, Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP) -22%, TIM S.A. -17%

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) cratered 27% in premarket trading on the surprise Lula win. 

UBS analyst Wensek added more color on the significant repricing of Brazilian assets as the market readjusts to four more years of socialist Lula: 

Brazil’s fiscal outlook again takes center stage, as debt/GDP trajectory resumes its ominous path. The desk expects a significant re-pricing of Brazilian assets on Monday, as the market adjusts to another four years of Lula, with USDBRL potentially at 5.3 Monday.

Note that FX didn’t react that much in the first round; it was more about rates and equities. EM strategist Roque Montero thinks USDBRL could drift to 5.5-5.6 by end-2026 given December negative seasonality. 

In rates, Roque expects a 100-150bp move higher. Equities could correct by 10-15% based on latest EWZ reaction. Among stocks, watch for selling pressure/rotation out of SOEs, high beta and rate sensitive names, into defensive, USD leveraged, cash flow generative names. If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House.

Beyond Bolsonaro’s possible court battle to challenge the results, Brazil now faces a financial reckoning as public debt has climbed to 83% of GDP from 71.7% when Lula and the socialists took office in January 2023, leaving traders to digest the continued fiscal deterioration. 

ING analysts see a 5%-7% slide in real terms and double-digit stock losses today. The repricing is already underway offshore: Brazil’s dollar bonds were among the worst performers in emerging markets, with yields on notes due in 2037 jumping 19 basis points to 6.44%.

What Goldman analysts expect from here: 

Rates and equities will see the most damage.  In rates, where we settle will depend on damage control on fiscal.  There are people close to the president advocating for fiscal consolidation given its impact on financing cost.  Market will closely monitor Finance Minister announcement, and the details of fiscal consolidation.  Adjustments involving Constitutional spending cap/ fiscal target would be well received, and trim on specific social programs without longer term commitment likely won’t calm market.  If we see credible fiscal reform, BCB can continue its easing path given the still-very-high real rate, so front-end-to-belly receiver could be attractive again after the correction.  Equity market will likely price out optimism around structural reforms to improve SOE/ business environment.

USDBRL – expect to settle in new range of 5.4-5.8.  This will limit BCB’s ability to accelerate its pace of easing.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad sees a buying opportunity emerging from the selloff. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 09:56

Appeals Court Raises Doubt Over Trump Admin’s Ballot Lawsuit Against California

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Appeals Court Raises Doubt Over Trump Admin’s Ballot Lawsuit Against California
Appeals Court Raises Doubt Over Trump Admin’s Ballot Lawsuit Against California

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court on Sunday expressed skepticism over the Trump administration’s bid to require California to set aside mail-in ballots from voters whom the government suspected of being noncitizens.

The Ninth Circuit of Appeals held an emergency teleconference hearing after the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a notice of appeal seeking the court’s intervention.

During the hearing, Circuit Judge Mark Bennett said California has the authority under the elections clause to determine how it conducts elections, including how it sorts out votes from noncitizens.

“Congress has not directly changed what the legislature has adopted, which they had the right to do. And it seems to me you want us to issue an injunction that is entirely inconsistent with the law the California legislature has adopted pursuant to the Elections Clause,” the circuit judge said.

Bennett also questioned the appeals court’s jurisdiction to rule on the case, noting that the lower court had already scheduled a hearing for Tuesday.

DOJ lawyer Matthew Donnelly said the department sought an emergency court order after California said in its filing that it had processed more than 330,000 mail-in ballots.

The DOJ sued California on Oct. 15 to prevent the counting of mail-in ballots from more than 20,000 people identified by the federal government as likely noncitizens. The federal government has asked the state to set aside ballots received until it can confirm citizenship.

The department filed an appeal on Oct. 22 after U.S. District Judge David Carter failed to rule on its emergency request for injunctive relief by the requested deadline.

During the hearing, Donnelly was questioned about the source of the department’s claim that 20,000 voters were likely noncitizens. Donnelly said the information came from “a list that was purchased originally from California” and supplied to the government, which then underwent a rigorous review.

California attorney Samuel Siegel argued that the federal government has no authority to dictate how the state processes its ballots.

“If the executive branch wants that authority in the first instance, they need to go ask Congress for it. They haven’t done that. They ask this court to short- circuit the democratic process and issue an order, not just on the eve of an election, but as an election is underway,” Siegel said.

At the end of the two-hour oral argument, Bennett said the three-judge panel would try to rule as quickly as possible.

In its Oct. 21 emergency filing for a temporary restraining order, the DOJ said state and county officials contended they lacked the mechanisms and authority to prevent noncitizens from voting in the midterm elections. The department said that this showed an immediate threat to the integrity of lawful votes.

“As defendants continue processing ballots that cannot later be segregated or verified for eligibility, the dilution of lawful votes accelerates in real time,” the DOJ said in its filing.

“This is an emergency. Every minute of processing that occurs without segregating the ballots of suspected non-eligible voters causes untraceable disenfranchisement and dilution of the votes of United States citizens.“

Los Angeles County filed a motion on Oct. 21 asking the judge to dismiss the DOJ’s lawsuit, arguing the department lacked legal standing to bring the case.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 – 09:50

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