El Nino Crushes Atlantic Hurricane Activity, Lowest Since 1941
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives next Thursday, yet by this point the basin would normally have produced multiple systems tracking through the Caribbean, the Gulf of America, and the open Atlantic. This year, however, a strengthening El Niño and record vertical wind shear are tearing apart disturbances before they can rapidly intensify.
Bloomberg reports that only five short-lived tropical storms have formed this season, and none has intensified into a hurricane. The Atlantic has not recorded so little activity at this point in the season since 1941.
“We’re crushing all sorts of shear records this year,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s annual seasonal forecast. “The models are so anemic on storm development coming up in the next 10 days too.”
Forecasters and researchers are tracking accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a season.
“We currently have an ACE of 4.4,” Klotzbach said. That is the lowest since 1941. A low ACE indicates that storms have generally been weak or short-lived, reflecting the fact that no tropical disturbance has intensified into a hurricane.
For the US energy complex, the absence of hurricane activity is great news. Gulf Coast refineries, offshore platforms, pipelines, and LNG export terminals have avoided precautionary shutdowns, allowing facilities to operate near full capacity as the global refined-products crisis deepens. This has been a boon for US producers as the country exports record volumes of crude oil and diesel.
Still, a lull in tropical activity does not entirely rule out the possibility of a destructive late-season storm, as roughly 12.5 weeks remain before the season ends on November 30.
Meanwhile, Southern California and Hawaii are bracing for potential impacts from tropical systems over Labor Day weekend.
“It just seems like it’s one storm after another out there because of the atmospheric conditions and the water being pretty warm,” Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center, told the outlet, referring to the activity in the Pacific.
El Niño Impacts
“For an El Niño year, this is what we would expect,” Berg said.
Stronger appetite for Middle Eastern crude grades from China and India has added upward pressure on prices for these grades, pushing the Dubai futures close to $100 per barrel, Bloomberg reported today, citing unnamed traders.
Demand for Middle Eastern oil is especially strong from refining majors such as Indian Oil Corp. and PetroChina, as well as refiners in South Korea and Japan, the report said. This is despite the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, with Saudi Arabia’s oil exports dropping to the lowest since 2017, according to data from ship-trackers including Kpler and Vortexa.
A further price rally may well be on the table as some cargoes face delays from August to September and October, Bloomberg also noted. At the time of writing, Murban futures, the UAE benchmark, was trading at $106.10 per barrel, and DME Oman, the Middle East sour crude benchmark for Asia, was trading at $99.18 per barrel.
The stronger demand comes despite depressed flows of oil via the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past week, the average daily volume of oil making its way via the waterway stood at between 6 and 8 million barrels.
Asian buyers, meanwhile, are also stepping up purchases from other regions, notably Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, with China and India also buying more Russian crude.
While Middle Eastern oil prices rise, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediatedipped yesterday, reflecting uncertainty about developments in the Middle East even as mutual strikes between the United States and Iran continue. According to some analysts, the dip in prices came in response to a pause in the strikes. It appears traders believe the pause could extend, despite a statement by President Trump that “It was a very heavy attack last night, and we’re prepared to do another one any time we want.”
Vance Suggests Iran Conflict Could Drag Through Midterms, But At Least We’re Not Calling It A War
The White House has returned to its prior talking point that the war against Iran shouldn’t be called a war. In earlier stages of the conflict President Trump had applied various monikers that stopped far short, from an “excursion” to a “little detour” to a “stopover” to a mere limited “military operation”.
A full five months ago he had proclaimed, “We had to take a little detour. Won’t be long.” Various phrases like this have been repeated on a monthly basis, as what the American public was ‘assured’ was supposed to be a “four to six week-long” operation has blown past the six month mark this week. And yet, the administration is back at it, despite new heavy fire having been exchanged between the US and Iran just in the last few days.
Vice President JD Vance in Thursday remarks rejected the use of the word “war” to describe the conflict with Iran and declined to predict whether it would be over by November’s midterm elections. At the moment Republicans hold narrow majorities in Congress, but now must face down voters amid an increasingly unpopular quagmire conflict in the Middle East. Vance in taking questions from reporters sought to reason that, “Right now, there is no active shooting.“
JD Vance praises Trump for winning wars, says moments later of Iran that “I wouldn’t call it a war” 🥴 pic.twitter.com/2RAoFtwa9M
Ironically, it was a mere few hours prior to Vance’s comments that Iran had once again fired on US Gulf ally Kuwait, also amid some reports that the UAE was targeted as well. And the day prior to that, US bases in Jordan were rocked by missiles once again, though Jordan said it intercepted most. Tehran claimed high casualties among US forces, while the Pentagon has sought to bat this down, denying that casualties resulted.
The Vice President characterized this latest flare-up as a US “responsibility” to conduct strikes on Iran, given it has been targeting commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Vance also notably didn’t want to set “artificial timelines.” He responded to a reporter by positing: “But when you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?'” Vance said. “I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians.”
But the reality remains – the US is still fighting for a return to the pre-war status of the Strait of Hormuz, which had before February 28 been open to all international shipping, and with no ‘fee’ or ‘tax’ imposed by Tehran or other regional nations.
Recall too that back in May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio articulated with crystal clarity that the goal of the war in Iran is to restore the Hormuz Strait “back to the way it was” before Trump initiated Operation Epic Fury.
When Vance went back-and-forth with reporters this week over the war’s timeline, November elections, and potential impact on the GOP’s future, the White House was already battling some terrible optics.
Increasingly, even mainline normie conservative publications like Newsmax are highlighting how fallen and wounded service members are being politicized at a moment the US can’t decide whether it’s in a war or not:
The administration in July faced scrutiny after it reclassified four fallen soldiers as well as dozens of wounded troops in its Defense Casualty Analysis System, which Pentagon officials have repeatedly pointed to as the definitive source on the numbers of dead and wounded from the conflict.
Those killed or wounded in fighting after a brief ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran fell apart were classified in a new category called “Overseas Operations” after initially being tallied in the totals from the war.
Also this week there was this alarming and disturbing story in the esteemed Military.com: Widow of Airman Killed in Iran War Claims She Was Denied Death Benefits.
“The Air Force recently told me that because we haven’t officially declared war, my kids and I aren’t eligible for some benefits,” the widow of deceased US Air Force Major John “Alex” Klinner wrote. He died in action over Iraq connected to Iran operations.
On CNBC early this week, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick was discussing the Iran war when he asserted: “There haven’t been American deaths. It’s really been an economic choke-out.”
According to the Pentagon’s own official tally, a total of 18 US service members have been killed in action against Iran to date. Some pundits have long suspected it could be more, and that the Pentagon could indeed continue to be playing political games in terms of how to ‘classify’ ongoing or potential deaths. Lutnick’s words to CNBC were shocking enough for Trump to directly intervene, claiming that he had mistakenly had “Venezuela on his mind”…
After all of the above, Trump again took to Truth Social to then berate the media and its critical coverage of the Iran war and Hormuz crisis. He called journalists questioning the White House narrative ‘treasonous scum’.
Trump particularly singled out recent and ongoing reports of US missile and interceptor shortages, which he has slammed as false. He went on to claim that the US has “virtually unlimited amounts of Mid to High Grade Ammunition”.
Probably the bulk of American voters aren’t buying it. Is all of the above evidence of serving and protecting America First? We haven’t heard this phrase out of the administration in a long while.
There is an intriguing story out of Brazil where Joao Arajuo, 57, a plastic surgeon known as “Dr. Frankenstein,” resurfaced after cutting an ankle monitor and fleeing the United States. The infamous plastic surgeon mocked the police and recounted how easy it was to flee the country. However, in detailing his escape, he implicated Brazilian diplomats in actively assisting the flight, making them accessories after the fact.
Araujo was awaiting trial for a variety of crimes linked to cosmetic surgeries, including procedures that were botched and left patients disfigured. These treatments included liposuction, fillers and laser treatments.
The 14 counts included felonies for grand theft, practicing medicine without a license, and fraud.
However, Araujo decided not to wait for a trial: “When I decided to leave, I simply cut off the electronic ankle bracelet. I took [Interstate] 95. I took a boat owned by an acquaintance and went to [the island of] Bimini [in the Bahamas], [then to] Nassau, Panama, Rio de Janeiro.”
He offered details that could be used to identify any collaborators: “I left at 4:30 a.m. I arrived in [the island of] Bimini [in the Bahamas] early. From Bimini, I took a plane at 230 p.m. I arrived in Nassau 40 minutes later. Because the flight was fully booked to Panama, I had to spend the night” before going “from Panama to Rio de Janeiro.”
So Araujo had his friend sail him to the Bahamas and then flew to Rio. He celebrated by mocking the police. However, he implicated Brazilian diplomats in making the escape:
“Any idiot knows how to leave the United States. I had all the support of the Brazilian consulate … They are all my friends. Both the Brazilian federal police and the Brazilian embassy gave me all the support in Miami.”
The direct assistance of diplomats in the flight of a fugitive would be a serious breach of diplomatic status.
For any diplomat, this would be the knowing commission of a criminal act as an accessory after the fact.
While diplomats have immunity, they could be declared persona non grata under Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
Araujo was required to surrender his only known passport from Brazil. That means he somehow obtained a new one. It is unclear whether the passport was fake or whether his “friends” took the extraordinary step of issuing him a new passport to facilitate his flight.
While he did not name his “friends,” he noted in a prior interview that “the consul in Miami is my friend” and used the first names of both the current general consul and his recently departed predecessor. The acting consul general in Miami, Andre Odenbreit Carvalho left in May. He also referenced Marcelo Ivo, the Brazilian Federal Police Liaison for the Consulate in Miami.
Notably, according to Steven Nelson at the New York Post, the US government in April asked Ivo to leave his post “in a reciprocal action after Brasilia booted an unnamed American official in apparent retaliation for US immigration officials briefly detaining a former Brazilian congressman.”
Tensions between the countries are already high under leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The Trump Administration previously canceled the visa of the Brazilian ambassador, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti.
The administration has also hit Brazil with massive tariffs in a trade war.
While Araujo expressed a desire to live in Europe, the United States will likely seek an Interpol warrant that would expose him to arrest. The Brazilian Constitution bars the extradition of its citizens. However, even if Brazil does not extradite him, he will have trouble traveling. Even those “idiots” that he attacked could track and arrest him in international transit.
Mistrial Formally Declared In Lindsay Clancy Murder Trial After State Supremes Refuse Stay
Update (1505ET): The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court denied an emergency stay Friday afternoon in the Lindsay Clancy case, after which the judge formally declared a mistrial.
JUST IN – Massachusetts Supreme Court Justice Dalila Argaez Wendlandt is hearing Lindsay Clancy’s defense appeal to stay the mistrial judgement. pic.twitter.com/zOiGYlY9gv
Clancy, a former labor-and-delivery nurse, is charged with first-degree murder in the January 2023 strangling deaths of her three children (ages 5, 3, and 8 months) in Duxbury. The defense argued she was not criminally responsible due to postpartum psychosis.
🚨 JUST IN: The Lindsay Clancy prosecution has ALREADY told the court they WILL be re-trying this case
Lindsay WILL NOT walk free (or walk at all). It’s looking like it’ll occur later in the fall.
Update (1226ET): After the jury remained deadlocked following 36 hours of deliberations over seven days, Judge William Sullivan declared a mistrial in the Lindsay Clancy murder case – however he’s given the defense one hour to seek a stay from the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court.
Judge says he will give Reddington one hour to get a stay from the Supreme Judicial Court.
MISTRIAL ON HOLD in Lindsay Clancy case.
Why would the defense want a stay of a mistrial? Because if they can instead force the holdout juror to be removed, they avoid a brand new trial and Clancy will go free.
“This is really intense. Reddington asked for emergency Supreme Judicial Court intervention moments before the jury walked back in,” reports NewsNation’s Brian Entin.
Developing…
* * *
Update (1135ET): A mistrial was declared in the Lindsay Clancy case on Friday, after a holdout juror refused to bend the knee and let her off, Fox News‘ Bill Melugin reports.
BREAKING: Judge declares mistrial in Lindsay Clancy murder case after hung jury.
Lindsay Clancy’s defense team is absolutely melting down after Judge William Sullivan refused to remove a holdout juror in Clancy’s triple-murder trial, in which the jury must decide whether Clancy is criminally responsible for strangling her three children, Cora, 5; Dawson, 3; and Callan, 8 months. Her defense claims that she was suffering from hallucinations amid postpartum psychosis. The prosecution claims she was not in psychosis when she sent her husband out of the house on long errands, before she murdered her children and then tried to make it appear as though she attempted suicide.
On Thursday, the jury foreperson sent a note indicating one juror was refusing to apply the judge’s instructions on reasonable doubt. Judge William Sullivan questioned each juror individually at sidebar, then gave the full panel what defense attorney Kevin Reddington later called a “soft” reminder of the law and sent them back to deliberate.
“They’ve said at this point that they can,” Sullivan said. “That was specifically addressed towards the specific question, and that’s what I’m doing.”
Reddington demanded that the holdout to be removed, and requested a more pointed inquiry – which Sullivan declined.
JUST IN: Lindsay Clancy stares at the jury as Judge William Sullivan sends them home for the day.
According to Clancy’s defense team, the holdout juror is a man.
“Clearly, we have a person who, under their oath, stood in front of you yesterday … under oath looked you in the eye and lied,” said Reddington. “That juror told you that he would be able to apply the law to the facts as you asked him.”
When court resumed Friday, Reddington hammered Sullivan, arguing that the prior instruction was inadequate, and pressed again for removal or further questioning of the juror (whom he accused of having lied under oath). Sullivan refused additional inquiry, stating he had considered the issue at length and would not remove the juror. Redding responded by calling Sullivan ‘soft’ – to which Sullivan replied: “What do you want me to do?! Get a brass band? I read the instruction as written by the Massachusetts Supreme Court. The fact I perhaps did not give it my full inflection, I’m sorry about that, I’m not an actor – I’m giving instruction.
🚨 BREAKING: Lindsay Clancy’s defense attorney is MELTING DOWN in court and DIRECTLY SPARRING with the judge, calling the judge “SOFT”
DEFENSE: Stop being soft with jury instructions!
JUDGE: What do you want me to do?! Get a BRASS BAND?! I read the instruction as written by the… pic.twitter.com/dijDZAdqzG
Following the spat, Clancy’s defense team filed a motion to Sullivan asking that there be no more sidebars for the remainder of the trial – and that all further proceedings be handled in open court. The prosecution, meanwhile, suggested that there be no further questioning of the jury, and asked that Sullivan send them to continue deliberations, arguing that the holdout juror has “no indication of lack of impartiality or bias or extraneous influence, and no indication of inability to deliberate.”
Reddington disagreed – arguing that the juror appears to have a personal issue getting in the way of him being able to deliberate fairly, and demanded that he be replaced with an alternate.
According to Massachusetts law, a judge can only send a jury back for deliberations twice before declaring a mistrial – which looks like where we’re headed.
The Trump administration is proposing a new rule that would strip private colleges and schools of their tax-exempt status if those institutions engaged in racial discrimination through policies such as diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).
The U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service said on Thursday that a proposed rule would bar a private school from obtaining tax-exempt status under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. tax code if the school “adopts, maintains, or enforces a policy or practice that discriminates on the basis of race, color, or national or ethnic origin.”
Under the new regulation, which would take effect in May 2027, a broad range of programs administered by schools would be affected. They include admissions, policies, loans, scholarships, and athletics, said the Treasury Department in a news release.
The proposal may impact as many as 18,000 private educational institutions across the United States, the IRS and Treasury estimated.
“This administration is standing up for America’s students by ensuring racial discrimination has no place in American education,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a statement.
“Schools rebranding race-based preferences as equitable, inclusive, or diversity-enhancing does not change their discriminatory nature.”
The proposal, he added, would “establish a clear standard” for private schools to follow, warning that any institution that continues to “use discriminatory practices will no longer receive the benefits of federal tax-exempt status.”
The move by the Treasury is another attempt to put pressure on schools and colleges to drop DEI policies that had become common before President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Trump officials have said the policies discriminate against white and Asian American students.
On his first day in office in his second term last year, Trump signed an order ending a number of DEI-related policies implemented under the Biden administration.
Last year, the Trump administration threatened to revoke Harvard University’s tax-exempt status during a battle with the nation’s oldest college. In a response, Harvard officials said there was no legal basis for doing so and argued it would force cuts to financial aid and crucial medical research.
To maintain nonprofit status, which allows donations to be tax-deductible, organizations must follow IRS rules on lobbying, political campaign activity, and annual reporting requirements, as well as other obligations.
The IRS says on its website that 501(c)(3) organizations also cannot be operated or organized for the benefit of private interests and that their net earnings cannot “inure to the benefit of any private shareholder or individual.”
IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bisignano said private schools that promote discriminatory practices will no longer be exempt from taxes.
“Today’s proposed regulations put institutions on notice and schools that continue to engage in racial discrimination should expect to lose that status,” he said in a statement on Thursday.
Religious private schools will still be able to maintain a “religious mission, curriculum, or program of religious observance” under the latest proposal, the Treasury Department said.
It added that those schools can continue to select students based on religious affiliation or membership, provided they follow guidelines consistent with federal law.
Argentina’s Milei Escalates Falklands Dispute With Oil Sanctions On UK, Israeli Firms
Argentina’s President Milei has announced plans to sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, coming a mere days after President Trump indicated that the US position on the archipelago was “under review”.
The Libertarian-Right firebrand leader proclaimed quite provocatively that “The Falkland Islands are Argentinian, historically and legally. There is no debate” and added that the “winds of change” have more lately favored Argentina’s claim.
Milei characterized the Falkland’s Sea Lion Project, which is based out of what firmly remains a British territory, as essentially a resource-grab which undermines Argentinian sovereignty.
The area to be tapped lies some 140 miles north of the Falkland Islands and is widely estimated to hold a whopping 1.7 billion barrels of oil.
The ambitious project involves Israeli and British firms, creating rare tensions between staunchly pro-Israeli Milei and what are primarily Tel Aviv-based investors.
He further warned that given the project has proceeded without Argentina’s permission, it marks a “concrete and urgent danger,” given that “If we fail to act, within a few months, they will possess the physical capacity to take the oil reserves that lie beneath our waters.”
According to more on ownership details via Reuters:
The project’s two owners have strong Israeli ties. Sea Lion is operated by Tel Aviv-listed Navitas Petroleum (NVPTp.TA), which holds a 65% stake.
Gideon Tadmor, a prominent figure in Israel’s energy sector and also the company’s chair, holds about 9% of shares in the company, according to LSEG data.
The remaining 35% of Sea Lion is owned by London-listed Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L), with Israel-based Noked Capital, Brosh Funds and ION Fund Management among its top five investors, owning between 4.6% and 9.2% each.
Navitas and Rockhopper said the Sea Lion project had valid licenses and that they did not expect Milei’s comments to have a material effect on the project’s development.
Navitas is charging ahead, indicating in its statement that it won’t bow to Argentine pressure and that it’s done everything correctly and legally.
“The Partnership operates pursuant to valid petroleum licences lawfully granted to it by the Government of the Falkland Islands, a self-governing UK Overseas Territory, and with the full and ongoing support of the UK Government,” Navitas said.
The Falklands remain a unique pressure point for Britain, which fought a war over the islands in the early 1980s. The United Kingdom has controlled it going all the way back to 1833.
However, Trump’s recent signaling that he’ll reconsider the US’ position on the Falklands appears to be a big lever over London, and of course there’s the reality that Trump’s alignment with Milei is tighter than ever.
‘If we allow it, we create incentive for British govt to DEEPEN its occupation’ — Argentina’s Milei opposes Falkland Islands ‘Sea Lion’ oil project pic.twitter.com/M8JmqMr5H4
Recent reporting in The Telegraph said the Trump administration is using Britain’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands ultimately as leverage to pressure the European ally into meeting NATO’s new defense-spending target.
Back in April, Milei proclaimed on X in Spanish that “The Malvinas were, are, and always will be Argentine” – using the Argentine name for the islands. He also told media outlets at the time that his government is doing “everything humanly possible” to return the Falklands to Argentina.
The Trump administration is investigating whether COVID-19 vaccines contributed to the deaths of U.S. service members following the Biden administration’s military vaccine mandate, according to testimony from an Army doctor assigned to the effort.
Army physician Theresa Long said in an Aug. 14 federal court deposition that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth detailed her to serve as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s senior medical military adviser.
Long said she is examining 2,544 unverified reports of deaths among service members submitted to the federal Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, following COVID vaccination.
VAERS is an early-warning surveillance system that accepts reports of health problems occurring after vaccination. A report does not establish that a vaccine caused the medical event or death.
Long, who is board certified in aerospace medicine and holds a master’s degree in public health, said she hopes to complete her investigation within a year.
She also testified that she knows of 28 people who died because of COVID vaccines but said she was not permitted to provide additional information supporting that assertion.
The investigation comes as the Trump administration reexamines the military’s handling of the COVID pandemic and the Biden administration’s 2021 vaccine mandate.
Nearly 9,000 service members were discharged for refusing COVID vaccinations before Congress ordered the Pentagon to rescind the mandate in 2022. The Defense Department has since established a COVID-19 Reinstatement and Reconciliation Task Force to assist troops who left the military over the requirement and want to return.
“The Department continues to right the wrongs of the past and to restore confidence in, and honor to, our fighting force,” the Pentagon said in announcing the task force.
Long is also reviewing military health surveillance systems and two medical databases from the pandemic period.
A 2026 Pentagon report found an increase in myocarditis and pericarditis among active-duty service members shortly after COVID vaccination, but said the increase was not sustained over one year. The report did not identify vaccine-related deaths.
The FDA has also required updated warnings for mRNA COVID vaccines concerning myocarditis and pericarditis. The agency reported a higher incidence among young men, with 27 cases per million vaccinations compared with 8 per million in the general population for the period it analyzed.
Long’s previously undisclosed assignment indicates that the Trump administration’s review of the Biden-era military vaccine mandate now extends beyond reinstating discharged troops to examining whether the vaccines themselves caused serious injuries or deaths among service members.
Deutsche Bank: August US Auto Sales Beat Forecasts, But Incentives Remain A Factor
U.S. auto sales came in stronger than expected in August, offering another sign that consumer demand for new vehicles remains relatively resilient despite elevated borrowing costs and broader questions about the economy.
According to Deutsche Bank’s auto team, led by Edison Yu, August sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of roughly 16.9 million vehicles. That was comfortably ahead of the bank’s 16.4 million estimate and also above the roughly 16.4 million pace recorded a year earlier.
The headline SAAR number was strong, although the underlying monthly figures were somewhat less impressive. Automakers sold approximately 1.388 million vehicles during August, slightly above July’s 1.380 million but below the roughly 1.482 million vehicles sold in August 2025.
Sales among both the Detroit Three and major Japanese automakers were modestly better than Deutsche Bank expected. But Hyundai Group was one of the biggest contributors to the upside surprise, beating the bank’s forecast by approximately 14,000 vehicles. Other brands accounted for the remainder of the beat.
The closely watched large pickup market was more mixed. Daily sales declined for most major truck models, but Ram was a notable exception. Ram sales increased by roughly 105 vehicles per day to around 1,550, with Deutsche Bank attributing much of that strength to aggressive incentive spending.
Higher sales are obviously positive for volumes, but when they are being generated through heavier discounts and incentives, the improvement doesn’t necessarily translate into equally strong profitability for manufacturers.
Inventory remains relatively controlled. Industry-wide inventories slipped to approximately 49 days of supply, compared with 50 days previously, although that remains above the 47-day level seen in 2025. Truck inventories declined by one day to 52 days of supply, while passenger-car inventories dropped by two days to just 34.
Taken together, the August numbers paint a reasonably healthy picture of the U.S. auto market. Sales are running better than expected, inventories aren’t showing signs of a major glut, and the annualized selling rate remains comfortably above 16 million vehicles.
Deutsche Bank isn’t extrapolating August’s 16.9 million pace into a dramatically stronger industry forecast, however. Yu and his team continue to expect a 16.0 million SAAR for full-year 2026, roughly consistent with forecasts from the major automakers themselves. For 2027, Deutsche Bank is forecasting only a modest improvement to 16.1 million.
In other words, August was a good month, but Deutsche Bank isn’t calling it the beginning of an auto boom. The more interesting question from here may be how much manufacturers have to spend on incentives to keep sales around these levels…particularly if consumers remain squeezed by high vehicle prices and financing costs.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is at its highest in six years as investors increasingly look for ways to hedge against currency debasement.
That’s according to a new report from Bitwise, which this week pointed out that the precious metal and leading cryptocurrency are trading in lockstep because the U.S. government has “materially intervened in the macro picture.”
Bitcoin started surging last month, after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The coin had its best run in three years and third best August ever.
“The last time the bitcoin-gold correlation was that high was in 2020, following the rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the Covid crisis,” Bitwise’s European Head of Research, André Dragosch, wrote.
JUST IN: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold hit a six-year high, according to Bitwise 👀
He added that bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market dropped to a one-year low, “implying some kind of decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.”
Bitcoin has been pushed as “digital gold” for years but has sometimes traded with tech stocks as a “risk-on” asset.
But the so-called debasement trade — when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value — was a much-talked about investment strategy last year and appears to be back.
The reason is down to the government intervening in markets, Dragosch argued. When the Treasury said it would try to rein in long-term borrowing costs, the dollar’s value slid and sent investors flooding back to gold — and bitcoin.
The Treasury the same week also said the U.S. public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time. Excessive debt also undermines confidence in the dollar.
“Investors are no longer asking whether to hedge currency debasement with gold or bitcoin. They’re simply hedging with both,” the report added.
“Bitcoin spent its first fifteen years being priced as a risk asset. If this correlation trend with gold holds, the next fifteen may look very different.”
The leading cryptocurrency again rallied this week, and was recently trading for close to $81,438 after jumping nearly 6% over a 24-hour period.
