Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) cannot take the names of registered voters and compare them against a federal immigration database, a federal judge has ruled.

U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan, based in Washington, handed down an order on Oct. 9 against the department.

The DOJ has been requesting lists of registered voters from states and, after obtaining them, checking them against the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements service, which contains citizenship information.

When people are identified as registered to vote despite not being citizens – according to the SAVE database – the DOJ has been demanding that states remove them from voter rolls.

“The challenged policy represents the federal government’s attempt to decide who gets to vote,” Sooknanan said. “But Congress has left that authority where our Constitution has always placed it: with the states.”

She also said that the department “cannot run roughshod over longstanding laws that were carefully crafted to protect the rights of the American people.”

The DOJ did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

“The Trump administration has repeatedly taken extreme measures to interfere with how elections are run, undermine confidence in the results, and create confusion,” Ming Cheung, a senior staff attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union, which is representing plaintiffs who sued over the policy, said in a statement.

“This effort to seize sensitive voter data is part of that same pattern, and today’s ruling makes clear that the administration cannot use the federal government to disrupt elections or put voters’ rights at risk.”

Common Cause and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington sued in April, arguing the effort to build a national voter database with the files from states was illegal in part because the DOJ planned to disclose confidential voter data to contractors to help verify the status of the voters and force states to remove voters identified as lacking citizenship.

“No federal statute authorizes DOJ’s sprawling new voter surveillance, data consolidation, and purging operation,” they said.

Government lawyers said that Congress authorized the department to enforce voting laws, including the National Voter Registration Act, and that the effort was part of that enforcement.

The act says states must make a “reasonable effort” to remove ineligible voters from voter lists and says the attorney general can sue states if they do not comply with the law.

The DOJ created the policy after President Donald Trump directed the attorney general to work with states to identify suspected violations of election laws, including voting by ineligible individuals.

Sooknanan said that the laws the government cited do not authorize the policy.

“It would turn these voter-protection laws on their head to find that they authorize DOJ’s unprecedented actions,” she wrote.

The National Voter Registration Act, for instance, emphasizes the role states have in maintaining voter rolls and does not empower the DOJ to demand voter data from states, the judge said.

She vacated the DOJ’s effort to maintain voter lists.

The ruling came several weeks after the Supreme Court paused a ruling by Sooknanan in a related case that had blocked the government from using an expanded version of SAVE to verify voters’ citizenship.

Authored by Sarah Roderick-Fitch via The Center Square,

A majority of American voters are concerned with socialist candidates running and possibly winning political office, according to a new poll.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice poll found that 55% of American voters are concerned about Democratic Socialist candidates running for and winning elected office in the U.S., while 37% aren’t concerned.

A slew of candidates running as democratic socialists appears to be raising alarms with a majority of American voters.

Of the 55% who are concerned, 35% are very concerned, while 20% say they are “somewhat concerned.”

Of those not concerned, only 17% say they are not too concerned, while 20% say they are not at all concerned.

The poll comes as several Democratic Socialist candidates have risen in popularity across the country. The Democratic Socialists of America are touting 67 wins across the country, with 93 running. However, the group includes 62 DSA candidates who have lost.

The latest poll comes on the heels of an August poll by The Center Square’s Voters’ Voice Poll, which found 63% of Americans are concerned with the growth of socialism or communism in American politics, while 29% were not concerned.

Of the 63% concerned in August, 36% said they were very concerned, and 27% are somewhat concerned.

The Center Square’s Voters Voice Poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, surveyed 2,527 registered voters from Oct. 5-7 via an opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone messages. The sample included 1,136 Republicans, 1,171 Democrats, and 220 True Independents, who did not lean toward either major party when asked.

Heading into the midterm elections in November, Republicans and several Democratic voices have warned against democratic socialists rising to power across the country, with the backing of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.

It’s not only Republicans warning against socialism. U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn., has been outspoken on several self-proclaimed democratic socialists gaining popularity within the Democratic party.

Earlier in the month, Fetterman cited a CBS News poll that found nearly 60% of Democrats have a positive view of socialism.

“The Democratic Party is becoming the party of socialism. 58% view socialism positively. 50% view capitalism negatively. I’m a proud free market capitalist. This is lunacy,” the senator wrote on social media.

Fetterman isn’t the only Democrat calling out the party’s growing socialist arm; veteran Democratic strategist James Carville has called on the Democratic Socialists of America to drop the word “Democratic” from their name to distance the party from leftist policies.

In contrast to the CBS poll, The Center Square’s Voters’ Voice Poll found that 49% of Democratic voters are concerned with the rise in socialism or communism, while 40% aren’t concerned at all.

The poll comes as several democratic socialist candidates across the country, including in New York, Colorado, Michigan, California, and even Florida, have received the nod from Democratic voters to advance to the November elections.

Getty Images’ photo, video, and illustration licensing business to news outlets, advertisers, and businesses faces a quick death from AI.

Chatbots let users create visual content at a fraction of the cost of licensing, and Getty shares have collapsed since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, coinciding with a surge in AI news coverage and the growing adoption of chatbots for professional and personal use.

And now, Bloomberg reports that Getty plans to file for a prepackaged Chapter 11 restructuring in the coming weeks after securing support from major creditors and commitments for up to $533 million in new equity.

Getty family members and Koch Equity Development affiliates will provide the equity investment as part of the restructuring support agreement. The company expects to complete the restructuring by year-end.

The outlet noted that holders representing 83.5% of Getty’s unsecured bonds have agreed to retire $270 million of outstanding senior unsecured notes, reducing the company’s debt burden.

Investors holding about 89% of its secured bonds and term loans, along with all revolving credit facility lenders, have agreed to lower interest obligations and extend secured debt maturities.

The new deal will let Getty keep afloat, backed by $143 million in financing… but for how long?

Beyond Getty, Shutterstock has likely felt the pain from AI-generated images and video, which could replace stock-content purchases and pressure licensing prices. Adobe Stock also faces substitution risk. 

* * * If you can afford it, get one of these. It will run a Starlink Mini + power-hungry Laptop for ~4 hours. Connectivity anywhere. 

This week markets will navigate the latest complex geopolitical news amid a barrage of news including the latest US inflation data, with September CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, the final readings before the Fed’s October 28 meeting, alongside a broader US activity pulse from retail sales (Thursday) and industrial production (Friday). After Columbus Day today where US bond markets will be closed but equities open, Q3 US earnings season also gets properly under way tomorrow, led by the big US banks, while across the globe ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday) should provide another useful read on the AI capex cycle. Elsewhere, China has September inflation and trade data on Wednesday, UK monthly GDP is due Thursday, and the IMF/World Bank meetings run through the week, with the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook out tomorrow and a long list of central-bank speakers. Thursday we also get what may be a key speech from Warsh at the IMF when the Fed Chairman participates in a fireside chat with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok; a moderated Q&A is expected.

Going onto more detail on the week ahead, the main event is US CPI on Wednesday. Economists expect headline CPI to rise +0.6% MoM in September, up from +0.40% in August, largely because seasonally adjusted motor-fuel prices are expected to jump 9.6%. That would lift headline inflation to around 3.6% YoY from 3.4%. The core picture should be much softer: economists expect +0.2% MoM, down from +0.3%, still this will be enough to push the annual rate higher to 2.5% from 2.4%. Within core, DB economists expect goods prices to be unchanged, with lower used-car and medical-care commodity prices offset by firmer recreation and IT goods. On services, last month’s jump in wireless prices should roll off, although higher jet-fuel costs should support airfares. The contrast between a fuel-driven headline acceleration and a softer underlying core print will clearly be important for the Fed, particularly given recent messaging that further tightening may be needed but is not urgent.

The inflation story does not end there. PPI follows on Thursday and import prices on Friday, both important for mapping the CPI details into core PCE. These are the last inflation data Fed officials will see before the October FOMC meeting. DB economists’ ex-ante estimate is for core PCE (released on October 29th, the day after the FOMC) to rise around +0.21% MoM, leaving the annual rate roughly steady at 3.0%. If they are close to the economists’ forecasts, the DB team thinks the Fed can remain on hold on October 28 and wait for more information before December, especially with the midterms just a week or so later. Chair Warsh’s fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva on Thursday evening will therefore be particularly interesting, as it is the final Fed appearance before the communications blackout. On activity, DB economists expect total September retail sales to be unchanged (Thursday) and industrial production to rise +0.2% MoM (Friday). The Fed’s Beige Book is also out Wednesday. Today is Columbus Day, so US bond markets are closed although equities remain open.

Earnings season is another important part of the week. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report tomorrow, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday. ASML reports Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. Deutsche’s US equity strategists expect S&P 500 earnings growth to remain at a record 34% YoY in Q3, versus consensus at 27%. Their view is that consensus is again embedding too much of a slowdown, leaving scope for another quarter of above-average beats. In Europe, equity strategists expect earnings growth to reach 25% in Q3, 5 pp above consensus (their full preview is here). So it should be a very strong earnings season on both sides of the Atlantic and indeed across the globe.  

Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday October 12

• Data: Denmark September CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Hammack speaks, BoE’s Breeden and Mann speak
• Other: IMF and World Bank meetings begin in Bangkok (through October 18), US Columbus Day (bond markets closed)

Tuesday October 13

• Data: US September NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, Japan September PPI, bank lending, Germany August current account balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Barkin and Collins speak, BoE’s Greene and Dhingra speak
• Earnings: JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup
• Other: IMF’s world economic outlook

Wednesday October 14

• Data: US September CPI, China September CPI, PPI, trade balance, Japan September M2, M3, Germany September wholesale price index, Canada August building permits
• Central banks: Fed releases Beige Book, Fed’s Bowman and Barkin speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Moulin, Zigman, Escriva, Makhlouf and Pereira speak, BoE’s Breeden and Pill speak, BoC’s Macklem speaks
• Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Progressive

Thursday October 15

• Data: US September retail sales, PPI, October Empire manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, August business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK August monthly GDP, Japan August core machine orders, capacity utilisation, Italy August general government debt, Eurozone August industrial production, Canada August manufacturing sales, Australia September labour force survey
• Central banks: Fed’s Hammack speaks, ECB’s Kocher, Simkus, Pereira and Moulin speak, BoJ’s Koeda speaks, BoE’s Pill, Greene and Breeden speak, BoC’s Rogers speaks
• Earnings: TSMC, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, Nordea
• Other: European Council meeting (through October 16), G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting

Friday October 16

• Data: US October New York Fed services business activity, September industrial production, capacity utilisation, import price index, export price index, August total net TIC flows, Italy August trade balance, Eurozone August trade balance, Canada September existing home sales, housing starts, August international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed’s Warsh speaks, ECB’s Nagel speaks, BoJ’s Uchida speaks, BoE’s Bailey speaks, BoC’s Macklem and Alexopoulos speak

 * * *

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the retail sales report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials scheduled this week, including an event with Chairman Warsh on Thursday. 

 
Monday, October 12 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. SIFMA recommends bond markets remain closed in observance of Columbus Day.
• 12:10 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on the outlook and monetary policy at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On October 11, President Hammack said that “when you see the amount of capital that’s flowing in, when you see the profits that are being created, to me, this does not look like an economy that has restraint.” Commenting on additional increases to the federal funds rate, she noted that “smaller, more frequent adjustments are preferable to larger ones.”

Tuesday, October 13 

• 03:45 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on economic policy in the age of AI at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi, India. On October 8, Governor Waller said that “if the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.”
• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, September (consensus 98.2, last 98.7)
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, September (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.5%, last -2.0%)
• 01:00 PM Richmond Fed Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will take part in a discussion at Howard University School of Business in Washington, DC. Moderated Q&A is expected. On September 22, President Barkin said that “We are committed to returning inflation sustainably to our 2 percent target. [The September] hike will help. Will additional hikes be required, and how many? We’ll see.”
• 04:00 PM Boston Fed Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at the 25th Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On September 22, President Collins said that “I now see an increased likelihood of future scenarios in which inflation remains notably above 2 percent,” adding that “a somewhat more restrictive federal funds rate will help ensure that inflation durably returns to target.”

Wednesday, October 14 

• 05:40 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will participate in a moderated conversation at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. Moderated Q&A is expected. On October 1, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said that “after the Committee’s action in September, what we need to have is a better understanding about the underlying trends in the economy and how financial conditions are evolving going forward. So, I don’t currently see an urgent need for further action.”
• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), September (GS +0.59%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); Core CPI (MoM), September (GS +0.24%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); CPI (YoY), September (GS +3.70%, consensus +3.6%, last +3.4%); Core CPI (YoY), September (GS +2.46%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.4%): We estimate a 0.24% increase in September core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.5% on a rounded basis. We expect a pickup in autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% increase in new car prices, and a 0.2% increase in the car insurance category. We expect another large increase in airfares (+3%), reflecting the impact of the further increase in oil and refined product prices. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.20% increase in the OER category and a 0.17% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. We estimate a 0.59% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food (+0.2%) and energy (+5.0%) prices—which would raise the year-over-year rate to +3.70% from +3.40%. Our forecast is consistent with a slightly smaller 0.20% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in September.
• 01:30 PM Richmond Fed Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will take part in a fireside chat in Richmond. Moderated Q&A is expected.
• 02:00 PM Fed releases Beige Book, October meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the September FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in ten of the twelve districts, while two districts reported no change. In this month’s Beige Book, we will mainly look for anecdotes related to how consumers and firms are responding to the increase in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East. We will also look for anecdotes related to the impact of the AI buildout on firms’ activity and costs.
• 10:55 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the Bangkok Economic Festival. Speech text is expected.

Thursday, October 15 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.1%); Retail sales ex-auto, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.3%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.1%); Core retail sales, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.2%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.3% in September (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA) based on the signal from alternative measures of consumer spending. We estimate nominal headline retail sales also increased 0.3%, reflecting higher gasoline prices but lower auto sales.
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, October (GS 28.0, consensus 30.0, last 37.8)
• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, October (consensus 12.6, last 7.6)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, September (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%): 
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 10 (GS 210k, consensus 200k, last 197k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 3 (consensus 1,710k, last 1,716k)
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, August (consensus +0.4%, last +0.8%)
• 04:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a moderated discussion at the Women’s Trading Network Fireside Discussion hosted by Goldman Sachs and Girls Who Code in New York. Moderated Q&A is expected.
• 11:30 PM Fed Chairman Warsh speaks: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a fireside chat with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. Moderated Q&A is expected.

Friday, October 16 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, September (consensus +0.8%, last +0.7%)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last flat); Manufacturing production, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.3%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 76.4%, consensus 76.5%, last 76.3%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.5% in September, largely reflecting strong auto and electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 76.4%.

Source: DB, Goldman

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

US and European equity indices were firmly in the black on Friday as the recent run up in bond yields took a breather. The S&P500 closed 46 points higher at 7811 with strong gains across the real estate, consumer discretionary, healthcare and financial sectors. US 10-year yields were just over 1bp higher on the day, but down by almost 7bps over the course of the week with most of the decline in yields arriving on Thursday.

The yield on French 10-year bonds fell by 4.2bps to close the week slightly lower. That helped to propel the CAC40 to a 0.95% gain on Friday, with Arcelor Mittal, Capgemini, L’Oreal, Hermes, and Renault among the most prolific gainers. Renault shares got a boost from news that the European Union will enact a 350,000 quota against imports of Chinese hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, above which much steeper tariffs will kick in.

For context, Chinese exports of hybrid cars into the European market have risen from approximately 300,000 in 2025 to an estimated 800,000 in 2026 according to the Financial Times. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic expects the new safeguard measure to reduce Chinese imports by more than 50%. Importantly, the measures were agreed bilaterally with Beijing (thereby minimizing risk of retaliation) and do not require any evidence of market abuse to be enacted.

Politico reported over the weekend that Germany would like Britain to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for preferential access to the European market amid a lingering sense on the continent that Britain should not be allowed to cherry-pick the benefits of EU membership. A desire to make Britons feel the consequences of emphasizing their own sovereignty above economic access in 2016 is particularly acute in France, where temptations toward nationalistic chest-thumping are perhaps encouraged by centuries of rivalry with Britain and the context of an impending Presidential election where populist candidates are expected to do well.

The German quid-pro-quo for Britain sounds eerily reminiscent of the deal offered to Canada by the United States, whereby a common external tariff vis-à-vis China seems to have been the price of admission for Canada to secure the most favorable terms of access to the US market of any country. There was plenty of nationalistic chest-thumping (or raising of elbows) in that case, too, but the Trump administration saw that arrangement as necessary to prevent China from back-dooring goods into the American market via Canadian ports. In Britain’s case, the move seems to be more about signalling solidarity since the fact that the steering wheel is on the wrong side of the car already acts as a trade barrier of sorts preventing Chinese hybrids from flowing through the UK into Europe in large numbers.

Canada famously spurned the United States’ offer so it could maintain full sovereignty over trade decisions, but this has come at a cost for Canadian exporters who had typically sent approximately two thirds of their products into the US market. Employment figures released by Statistics Canada last week confirmed that the Canadian economy shed 68,300 jobs in September, following on from a 41,700 decline in employment in August. The unemployment rate rose from 6.4% to 6.5% despite a decline in workforce participation. The Canadian economy likely would have been in even worse shape had the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe not boosted demand for Canadian potash and energy products.

While the EU’s new protectionist measures vis-à-vis Chinese hybrid electric vehicles hold sectoral significance, they miss the structural problem of large and growing imbalances driven in large part by Chinese overproduction amid weak domestic demand. Unsurprisingly, captains of European industry from other sectors (notably, chemicals) are already agitating for similarly robust protectionist measures to be enacted against Chinese imports that compete with their own products. Eventually the European Commission may run out of sectoral policy fingers to plug the holes in the dike and simply opt for blanket protection – tariffs – in the way that the US has already done.

The problem is unlikely to be solved on the Chinese end. Despite frequent nods towards domestic rebalancing in favor of greater consumption, policy continues to prioritise investment and production, especially in areas of high tech. Any large policy tilt towards consumerism faces ideological opposition as well as – arguably – financial constraints, given China’s rapid public debt accumulation and already-stretched fiscal balance. Raising taxes to address fiscal issues might be self-defeating if the intention is to boost consumption through more generous social programs, but China is raising taxes on wealthy Chinese who shelter assets offshore.

Beijing’s trade template: China overtook Germany in exports of industrial machinery and equipment, in exports of specialized industrial machinery and will any minute overtake it in share of road vehicle exports. Coming to a Data Center near you next. https://t.co/eoHrZ2i6iV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 12, 2026

The huge US investments in AI and other high-tech applications (mostly financed by private capital) have pushed China into an investment arms race of sorts that could leave limited fiscal room for social programs. This bears some similarities to the military arms race that Reagan enacted against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, but does the United States still hold the financial superiority that is required to win such a race?

Not to be overlooked, geopolitical events over the weekend are again shaping up to be major drivers for energy markets. In a positive sign, Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire”, but the ceasefire was promptly broken by Russian strikes on power plants in Kharkiv and Kiev. Trump had earlier indicated that it might be time for Zelenskyy to step down as Ukraine’s President after repeated requests from the United States to cease attacks on Russian oil refineries went unheeded. According to reports of statements made by anonymous Ukrainian officials, the energy ceasefire came about after US negotiators indicated that the US could withdraw intelligence sharing if those requests continued to be ignored.

Another factor may have been a deal announced by Donald Trump between Russia and the USA that would see 1.8m tons of Russian diesel granted sanctions relief to be exported into the US market in coming months. President Zelenskyy described the deal as a “gift to Russia” and the deal faces resistance from lawmakers in Congress, but the White House may view the deal as killing two birds with one stone as it seeks to lower fuel costs for American consumers and pressure Ukraine not to engage in tactics perceived to run counter to US interests.

The Middle East, too, continued to produce headlines that will influence energy markets. Yemen’s Houthis launched strikes on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid international airport in Riyadh, killing at least twelve people and reportedly injuring hundreds more. The strikes follow a renewed offensive last week by Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces along the Red Sea coast to reclaim territory lost to the Houthis. The strikes coincide with Energy Week in Riyadh and have seen several oil and gas executives reconsider plans to attend conferences in the Saudi capital.

DISTURBING CONTENT: Passengers are seen lining up at security and sitting in a waiting area at Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh airport just moments before a deadly attack sends people scrambling for cover. The newly released surveillance footage captures the terrifying moments surrounding Saturday’s strike, which killed 13 people and wounded more than 300. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for the attack, which has forced the international airport to suspend operations.

— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 12, 2026

There was also further news of strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The IRGC claimed that a ship attempting to navigate a route not approved by Iran struck a marine mine, while the UK’s Maritime Trade Office reported that two ships had been struck by projectiles off the coast of the UAE and in the Gulf of Oman.

The IRGC-Navy says a supertanker involved in illegal activity, carrying crude oil and attempting to exit the Strait of Hormoz through unauthorized route, got struck with a massive blast after colliding with a naval mine in a designated high-risk area. This supertanker, which had turned off AIS, is currently engulfed in a massive fire.

— Arya Yadegaar (@AryJeayBackup) October 10, 2026

US CENTCOM also confirmed that it had immobilized a Panama-flagged vessel attempting to run the American blockade of Iranian ports. Nevertheless, Brent crude is trading lower this morning at $106/bbl at time of writing.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A distraught elementary school teacher has described a class of 34 students in which only one child passed, with many unable to correctly copy a simple word written on the board.

Educators say the pattern reflects a broader failure by parents to instill basic discipline and listening skills, leaving teachers unable to teach.

National test scores show the academic slide has accelerated. Twelfth-grade reading and math results on the 2024 Nation’s Report Card reached historic lows, while teachers report worsening student behavior that they largely attribute to home environments shaped by social media, low-effort entertainment, and, in some cases, the norms of the surrounding community.

American teacher breaks down into tears because teaching American elementary school students has become so hard

? She says she only has 1 student out of 34 kids who passed

She says it’s gotten so bad, “I literally put the word on the board. I write it on the board and I say copy it, and they’re copying it wrong – it’s almost scary because you’re like, dude – then you start questioning yourself. You’re like, is it me? Like, what?
– I’m exhausted”

“I’m exhausted – like, there’s some days that I like doing it, but man, to do that every single day it’s exhausting – Breaks my heart”

She extremely frustrated because she knows by the way the students are performing that their parents are not doing what they are supposed to be doing with their kids

It comes down to the parents. Our education system and parents are failing our kids. I remember going to school and everyone had to behave, everyone had to learn and do the work to pass, you weren’t even given an option

We have gotten too soft and there needs to be punishments and accountability again

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) October 12, 2026

The teacher said she has reached the point of questioning her own methods after watching children repeatedly fail at the most basic tasks. “I literally put the word on the board. I write it on the board and I say copy it, and they’re copying it wrong – it’s almost scary because you’re like, dude – then you start questioning yourself. You’re like, is it me? Like, what? – I’m exhausted,” she said.

She added, “I’m exhausted – like, there’s some days that I like doing it, but man, to do that every single day it’s exhausting – Breaks my heart.”

She identified the source of the problem outside the classroom. Parents, she indicated, are not reinforcing the skills or expectations required for school.

The 2024 NAEP results document the wider trend. Average 12th-grade reading scores were the lowest since the assessment began in 1992. Thirty-two percent of seniors scored below the basic level – the highest share ever recorded – meaning they could not locate straightforward details in a text.

The 2024 reading results for 12th-graders continued declines that began even before the pandemic. ?? https://t.co/1NDzC7mGv8

— NAEP, The Nation’s Report Card (@NAEP_NCES) September 11, 2025

In math, the average score was the lowest since 2005, and 45 percent of seniors scored below basic, also a record high. Only 22 percent reached the proficient level in math.

Forty-five percent of twelfth-graders performed “below basic” in math, and 32% in reading. Quote: “A country that fails to educate half of its own children while also banning immigrants is destined for decline.” https://t.co/yuOF84r1HI

— Brit Hume (@brithume) September 10, 2025

NCES Acting Commissioner Matthew Soldner described the findings as “sobering,” noting “significant declines in achievement among our lowest-performing students” and “a larger percentage of students scoring below the NAEP Basic achievement level in mathematics and reading than in any previous assessment.”

PISA 2025 results for 15-year-olds showed a 14-point drop in U.S. reading scores since 2022, placing them near a 25-year low. The gap between the highest- and lowest-performing American students in reading ranked among the widest internationally.

Survey data from the EdWeek Research Center align with the teacher’s account. Of more than 5,800 teachers surveyed, 35 percent said student behavior was “a lot worse” than the year before. Sixty-four percent reported that behavior had worsened over the past year.

Fifty-eight percent said parents need instruction on how to teach children to behave appropriately in school, and more than half favored limits on parents’ ability to block or reverse disciplinary consequences.

One middle-school teacher stated: “the number one problem, which is arguable pushing a lot of us out of this field, is that parents are just not parenting anymore.” Teachers also report that they can identify which students spend their evenings on tablets by the behavior those students bring to class. “That respect for education is just not there.”

When schools attempt to enforce rules, parents frequently intervene. Calls go unanswered or produce confrontation. The result is that children arrive at school without having learned that they must listen or follow directions.

Many have been told they are privileged, that rules do not apply equally to them, and that they have the right to act as they choose. Social media and continuous low-effort content reinforce the same message by rewarding immediate impulse and treating restraint as optional.

In certain communities the pattern begins earlier. Short videos circulating online show very young children already using the gestures and language associated with a high-conflict street culture – finger guns, middle fingers, and open defiance. One post highlighted the dynamic.

Black culture is beautiful. ?? https://t.co/JbVtQiEJZu

— Libs Hate Us (@LibsHateUs) October 9, 2026

Commentator Jeffery Mead observed: “This is very clear evidence of a problematic culture. Black Americans as a whole have a culture problem and our standards are too low. We have to fix the culture.”

This is very clear evidence of a problematic culture.

Black Americans as a whole have a culture problem and our standards are too low..

We have to fix the culture. https://t.co/3pU4fVCmc8

— Jeffery Mead (@the_jefferymead) September 26, 2026

Body-camera footage released from the January 2023 shooting at Richneck Elementary in Newport News, Virginia, shows the same absence of restraint at an extreme. A 6-year-old boy who had just shot his first-grade teacher, Abigail Zwerner, with a 9mm handgun he took from his mother’s purse, told officers while being held: “Both y’all want a fucking piece of me, bitch?!” and “Fuck you, bitch.” He continued, “If you want a piece of me, come get it on, bitch. I don’t care if you call backup. I don’t care if I go to jail, bitch,” and stated, “I stole that from my mom.”

Circuit Court Judge Christopher Papile, in sentencing the mother on a child-neglect conviction, said: “A parent’s ultimate and overarching and primary and paramount responsibility is to keep a child safe… Ms. Taylor has abdicated most if not all of these responsibilities.”

A federal judge described the case as “a dereliction of duty and responsibility in parenting.”

Children do not arrive at these behaviors on their own. They reproduce what is modeled and rewarded at home and in their immediate environment. When parents do not establish elementary discipline or the expectation that adults will be listened to, teachers inherit classrooms they cannot control and students they cannot reach.

The national data already record the cumulative effect. Restoring order requires parents who parent, schools that apply consistent standards, and a culture that treats competence and self-control as non-negotiable rather than optional.

Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport’s closure has been significantly extended in an unprecedented move by aviation authorities following the two weekend ballistic missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthis which left at least 13 people killed and over 300 injured. Prior strikes rocked the airport last week, and in all 15 have been killed in two weeks, including a Saudi Airlines pilot.

Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation body Monday extended the suspension of operations, stating “The General Authority of Civil Aviation has announced the extension of the suspension of operations at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in order to complete the necessary procedures to verify the safety of the facilities and their operational readiness.”

While it didn’t give a date of planned resumption of airport operations, separately a NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions, formerly Notice to Airmen) indicated a likely closure through the entire week, through a least Saturday:

Aviation @FAANews NOTAM A3604/26, issued on October 12, declares the entire airport unavailable due to precautionary measures until October 17 at 21:00 UTC, equivalent to midnight in Saudi Arabia at the start of October 18. This follows an earlier NOTAM closing Aircraft Stand C1 from October 8 through October 15. The notices confirm an airport-wide operational restriction, although they do not specify the full extent of the damage or establish when normal operations will resume.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said that Houthi attacks on the kingdom’s airports are serious and so his country’s response must be “equally serious”. The Saudis are still lobbying intensely behind the scenes for more direct military help from Western allies, especially the United States, which so far has been largely on the sidelines.

The Houthis are not just turning up the security pressure on Saudi Arabia, but the economic pressure as well. On Monday CNBC writes, “Australia, New Zealand, the U.K., the U.S., France, Germany, Japan and others have warned against travel to the kingdom, which is hosting the World ⁠Petroleum Congress.”

The Saudis are actually pressing ahead with the 25th WPC Energy Conference in Riyadh (going all this week), trying desperately to project a sense of normalcy. Where are the missile interceptors?

The Saudi energy minister, Abdulaziz bin Salman, told the conference that “fear has no place in the Saudi lexicon”, emphasising that the resilience of the kingdom’s energy system and the determination of its people to confront crises.

An urgent review is under way as to how Houthi missiles are repeatedly penetrating badly stretched Saudi air defences. Schoolchildren and some office workers were advised to work from home. The Houthis have also targeted the city of Khamis Mushait, and the King Fahd international airport in Dammam.

Oil prices have in the meantime climbed to near two-week highs. WTI is up 1.2% at $93.00 and Brent is at session highs, above $106 having traded in a $102.33-$106.17 range, as Iran insists Hormuz stays shut until all seven of its conditions are met and Trump mulls joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis. Below is a note from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid:

The big geopolitical/energy story over the weekend is the continued complexity of the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine conflicts. Trump announced yesterday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire”, but overnight developments underline how fragile that claim is. Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports a ceasefire if Russia does too and is awaiting details from Washington, while Moscow had still not publicly confirmed it. Zelenskyy also said Russia subsequently struck a thermal power plant in Kharkiv and other Ukrainian energy infrastructure. So for now this looks more like an untested US proposal than a functioning ceasefire, particularly after a similar arrangement last month failed to endure.

The proposed ceasefire is closely linked to the extraordinary US pivot on Russian diesel. Ukrainian refinery strikes had forced Moscow to restrict fuel exports, tightening an already constrained products market. Trump’s deal with Putin would allow around 13.5 million barrels of Russian diesel back into global markets this month via a temporary US sanctions waiver, potentially including the first US imports since March 2022. Zelenskyy has criticised the move, while Reuters reported that Washington threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons procurement support unless Kyiv halted refinery strikes. Russian barrels returning would be bearish for diesel cracks, but the overnight strikes make the ceasefire increasingly uncertain and highlight strains between Washington and Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Middle East energy risk has moved sharply in the other direction. Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport was hit again on Sunday after repeated attacks over the past week. Saudi Arabia said the latest strike killed one person and injured 11, after Saturday’s attack killed 12 and wounded more than 300. The escalation comes as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces counter recent Houthi gains near Bab el-Mandeb, the crucial Red Sea shipping chokepoint. Repeated strikes disrupting flights in Riyadh also underline how difficult the Houthi threat may be for Saudi Arabia to suppress.

That leaves a meaningful risk of wider regional escalation. Saudi Arabia has intensified air strikes in Yemen, while Trump said the US “may” join strikes against the Houthis after an American was among those killed on Saturday. Overnight, Iran denied directing the Houthis and its foreign minister urged diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, but there is little sign yet of de-escalation. Washington has so far limited support to intelligence sharing while Riyadh seeks more direct US help and air-defence support. So even if a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire and Russian diesel waiver ease pressure on refined products, attacks on Riyadh and fighting around Bab el-Mandeb leave an upside tail risk for oil and shipping costs, alongside continuing Strait of Hormuz disruption.

As for the ability (or inability) of Saudi Arabia and its allies to protect the kingdom’s airports and key Aramco oil facilities, this will remain a big open question. Various global airlines will continue their suspensions even after Riyadh and other airports try to open back up for business.

KSA: The vulnerability will continue, and there are few interceptors. These are different situations. It was not Israel that intercepted the bulk of the Iranian missiles, but an entire U.S. defense network backed by NATO. 
Radars installed in Gulf countries, American ships, and even systems in Turkey tracked the trajectory of Iranian missiles, generating predictions and selecting which systems would be used. 
Israel only entered the equation when this entire network failed and the missiles reached Israeli airspace. When Iran began destroying this American radar network, the success rate of its missiles rose significantly. The distance from Iran to Israel, covered by this extensive monitoring, provided advantages that the Saudis do not have, I’m talking about tracking, predictions, and especially reaction time. Even so, Iranian missiles still achieved success with maneuvers that struck targets in Israel. Interception rates against the Houthis will not improve, and these missiles operate in saturation attacks coordinated with large numbers of drones. To make matters worse, the Saudis currently have no more than 350–500 interceptors, when they would need at least three times that number to deal with what the Houthis possess, and even then with no guarantee of success. There is nothing Bin Salman can do. He will not accept any agreement that unifies Yemen under Houthi rule. Nor is it within his power to end the war without an agreement between Iran and Trump. Everything in this theater has Iran’s hand behind it, as I have already detailed in previous articles. Can the Turks and Pakistanis declare war and attack the Yemenis? And what would they gain from it? Saudi billions? In that scenario we would face a long war and the economic strangulation of Saudi Arabia. Would the Saudis draw that money from their sovereign wealth fund? That would create more distrust and problems than solutions. Every scenario leads to destruction and heavy losses. The Saudi offensive still has significant military potential, but will it operate with an economic knife at its throat? Trump and Netanyahu are the ones who need to fix the problem they created, not only for the region, but for the world.

— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) October 12, 2026

More Latest Developments

via Al Jazeera…

• OPEC has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million at the start of the year, Haitham al-Ghais, Secretary General of the organisation says.
• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has said that until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, pressure across the energy chain will only intensify.
• Mohsen Rezai, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, says the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until the US starts fulfiling its commitments and respecting Iranian demands.
• Abolfazl Shekarchi, chief spokesman of the Iranian armed forces, has said the country will not allow the restoration of the US-Israeli regional order in West Asia, according to the IRIB broadcaster.
• Three in four households in Yemen are unable to put food on the table as fighting intensifies in the country, the World Food Programme (WFP) warns.

via Newsquawk…

• Deadly Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital’s main airport over the weekend raised the risk of a wider war that may draw in the US. More missiles and drones were intercepted overnight. BBG
• The United States’ response to Iran’s seven conditions in a proposal to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz was “insufficient”, Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, was quoted by state media on Sunday as saying. RTRS
• Oil swung after US President Donald Trump said Kyiv and Moscow had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” while in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia suffered its deadliest strikes since the Iran war began. BBG
• Ukraine will continue to respond with long-range strikes against Russia unless Moscow agrees to an energy ceasefire that still hasn’t happened, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday. BBG
• Saudi Arabia is looking at ways to expand its oil pipeline capacity to destinations outside the Persian Gulf to 10 million barrels a day within two to three years, said Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. BBG
• US Senators reportedly demanded that President Trump reverse the Russian fuel imports deal, while Republican Senator Tillis warned that Trump’s Russian diesel deal may be illegal and put American lives at risk.