For weeks, we mapped out for readers how the Gulf energy shock dominoes would fall, spreading outward from the Middle East and striking Asia first through tightened energy-product flows that risk destabilizing the global economy. That transmission of tightening energy flows is now becoming alarmingly visible on factory floors across Asia.

Goldman analysts, led by Georgina Fraser, warned clients on Monday that the petrochemical shock is worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties.

“The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated,” Fraser emphasized in the note. 

She said the supply shock is moving beyond higher energy prices into production cuts, margin compression, and early demand destruction, adding that “signals are materializing fastest, with textiles and packaging among the first downstream sectors affected.”

Impact chain on the Chemicals sector from the Middle East conflict

Last week, supply chain disruptions in critical plastic feedstocks began to emerge, with several producers of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) declaring force majeure, while tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily disrupted. These feedstocks are essential in the production of plastics, the very material that is core to the modern economy.

Fraser noted that China’s PTA supply chain accounts for roughly three-quarters of global PTA capacity. She said spot PTA prices have jumped by more than 30% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began.

At the same time, about 15% of China’s PTA capacity and 11% of global capacity have been taken offline due to shutdowns and curtailments.

For context, MEG and PTA are the two primary feedstocks used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester fibers. These petrochemicals are essential to the production of everyday consumer goods that make life in the developed world convenient, including plastic bottles, food packaging, clothing, home furnishings, and a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.

The analyst then shifted focus to India, where she said the first signs of a petrochemical supply shock are already emerging: In Surat, the country’s main synthetic textile hub, producers have reduced operations to a single 12-hour shift, halving output as soaring plastics costs collide with weak demand.

She noted that for apparel and textiles, where petrochemical-linked inputs account for 50% to 65% of the cost of goods sold, the latest moves in raw material spot prices imply a 17% COGS shock, enough to idle less efficient plants.

Packaging is also at risk. While demand is lower for discretionary goods than for clothing, elevated price pressures in PTA and related petrochemicals threaten to spill over into food, beverage, and consumer goods packaging, increasing the odds of inflationary pass-through.

Circling back to JPMorgan’s commodity expert on how the energy shock dominoes fall: Asia first (happening now), then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US – primarily California.

“Even an imminent end to the conflict would not fully unwind the supply chain disruption already in motion,” the analyst warned. 

Professional subscribers can read the full “Petrochemical supply shock hits textiles and packaging faster and harder than anticipated” note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Fraser 

Tucker Carlson has publicly called on White House aides and Pentagon officials to refuse President Donald Trump’s orders if they involve mass attacks on Iranian civilians or the possible use of nuclear weapons, telling them to “say no, absolutely not” directly to the president and, if necessary, to “figure out the codes on the football yourself.” The remarks, made on his popular podcast, come amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and have triggered an immediate backlash from the White House.

Carlson framed the potential escalation as “evil” and a desecration of Christian and Islamic values, specifically criticising Trump’s recent social-media rhetoric urging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Carlson argued that such actions would mark “the end of the American empire as we understand it” and run directly counter to the “America First” principles Trump campaigned on.

Carlson’s comments come after the US and Israel’s aggressive bombing of Iran, which began with airstrikes earlier this year and has escalated into broader operations aimed at degrading Iranian military infrastructure, chemical-weapons facilities and ballistic-missile capabilities. Trump has repeatedly threatened overwhelming force if Iran does not comply with U.S. demands, while critics inside and outside the administration have questioned the intelligence justifying the campaign and warned of unintended regional fallout.

This intervention is perhaps the most high-profile act of public dissent from within Trump’s former base since the war began – as Carlson explicitly told listeners in direct contact with the president: “Those people who are in direct contact with the President need to say, ‘no, I’ll resign. I’ll do whatever I can do legally to stop this, because this is insane.’” He added that officials should refuse to carry out any nuclear-related order and leave the president to handle the nuclear “football” (the briefcase containing launch codes) himself.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Tucker Carlson says Trump is considering to use NUKES against IRAN

He publicly urges the US military and Pentagon officials to actively defy Donald Trump and refuse orders if he attempts to launch NUCLEAR WEAPONS against Iran pic.twitter.com/NMxbHPrpJm

— Alerte Info (@AlertesInfos_ca) April 7, 2026

Trump responded swiftly, telling the New York Post that Carlson is “a low IQ person that has absolutely no idea what’s going on.” White House officials later clarified that nuclear weapons are “not under consideration.”

Needless to say, the neocons are buzzing.

Do you feel an exciting tingle going up your leg?

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) April 7, 2026

Others Speaking Out

Anti-war voices across the political spectrum have amplified Carlson’s long-running opposition to the Iran war. Independent journalist Glenn Greenwald, who has appeared multiple times on Carlson’s show to discuss the conflict and related free-speech crackdowns, described Tucker’s sustained pushback against endless Middle East wars as “herculean” in late March – noting that Carlson had already “sacrificed his relationship with President Trump” by taking a public stand.

Greenwald has slammed Trump administration’s rapid shift from campaign promises of restraint to “large-scale military destruction, including attacks on infrastructure and natural resources,” arguing that earlier talk of “liberating Iranians” has been replaced by regime-change rhetoric that echoes past neoconservative failures.

Comedian and political commentator Jimmy Dore, a longtime vocal opponent of U.S. interventionism, has used his show in recent weeks to hammer the Iran escalation as a betrayal of Trump’s “no more forever wars” pledges. Dore has linked the conflict to rising domestic costs – particularly gasoline prices – and accused both parties of falling back into the same “war machine” trap that plagued previous administrations. In episodes leading up to Carlson’s remarks, Dore has urged viewers to pressure officials to reject illegal or immoral orders, echoing Carlson’s call for internal resistance.

Dore points out that Iran has been doing some “epic” trolling of Trump with clips that are going absolutely viral.

Libertarian comedian and podcaster Dave Smith – a longtime anti-war voice and frequent guest on Carlson’s show – quickly amplified the moment on X, writing: “I can’t believe how hard Tucker just went at Trump and he is legitimately a modern American hero for doing it.” Smith has been consistently criticising the Iran escalation for weeks, including in his 1 April appearance on The Tucker Carlson Show, where the two discussed Trump’s “critical next move in Iran,” the influence of Mossad and neoconservative hawks, and the unsustainable costs of another Middle East war.

I can’t believe how hard Tucker just went at Trump and he is legitimately a modern American hero for doing it.

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) April 7, 2026

And here’s Smith on Tucker from last Tuesday:

* * * Thank you for your support

Summary: 

• Bloomberg counters Nikkei Asia’s reporting on possible foldable iPhone delays

• Nikkei Asia says the foldable iPhone has hit “engineering snags,” with shipment delays possible

• Polymarket odds of a foldable iPhone release this year stand at 81%

Bloomberg counters Nikkei Asia’s reporting

Hours after Nikkei Asia reported that Apple’s first foldable iPhone could face delays in mass production, Bloomberg pushed back on the report, citing sources who say the foldable iPhone remains on track for a September debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.

Apple shares fell as much as 5.1% in the U.S. cash session after the Nikkei report raised concerns about engineering test issues with the new device, potentially delaying mass production.

Initial production could be heavily constrained by the complexity of the foldable phone, but Bloomberg’s sources suggest Apple is still aiming to put it on store shelves within the same launch window as the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.

Bloomberg’s report, countering Nikkei Asia’s earlier story, fits a familiar pattern of information operations, and Apple was likely not thrilled with the stock’s performance after the overnight note.

Polymarket odds of the foldable iPhone launching before 2027 stood at around 81% as of early Tuesday afternoon, up from 75% during the overnight hours.

Nikkei Asia says the foldable iPhone has hit “engineering snags” 

Apple is about 8 years late to the foldable smartphone space, with Samsung’s Galaxy Fold released in October 2018. Now, Tim Cook’s big launch of Apple’s first foldable smartphone could face “delays in its mass production and product shipment schedule,” according to new Nikkei Asia sources deep within the handset supply chain.

Supply chain sources told the Japanese business outlet that the complexity of the new foldable iPhone is causing engineering problems during early testing, and these issues could delay mass production and shipments by months.

Some suppliers have already been warned that component production schedules could be pushed back.

“It’s true that more issues than expected have emerged during the early test production phase, and additional time will be needed to resolve them and make necessary adjustments. … The current situation could put the mass production timeline at risk,” one of those sources said.

The source added, “April will mark a crucial stage of the engineering verification test, and this month through early May is extremely critical.”

Nikkei previously reported that Apple adjusted its iPhone launch strategy for 2026, pushing back production of base model iPhones to early 2027 to prioritize production of premium models, including foldable iPhones. This move is intended to allocate constrained supplies of memory chips and other key components more efficiently.

Another person in the handset supply chain said the potential schedule delay has very little to do with memory chips, but rather with “engineering challenges” for Apple’s first foldable iPhone: “Apple and the supply chain are working under a tight timeline, and the current solutions are not enough to completely solve the engineering challenges. More time is needed.”

Nikkei Asia’s supply chain checks suggest Apple will initially produce 7 million to 8 million foldable iPhones.

Summary: 

• Tehran Times: All communications with US side suspended – THEN ISSUES CORRECTION, REVERSES. This after Trump’s Tues. morning threat: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” Axios cites “glimmer” of progress on negotiations.

• In a call with FOX’s Bret Baier, Trump says 8 PM deadline today “could change if negotiations move forward, but sticking to deadline for now.”

• Kharg Island heavily bombed in preparation for potential US Marine/Special Forces ground seizure. Reports of ‘human chains’ at bridges, power plants, in Iran forming.

• Israel has begun attacking Iran’s railway infrastructure, telling civilians to not take trains, cancelations across country. IRGC still defiant – announces new retaliatory attacks on petrochemical plants in eastern Saudi Arabia.

• Iran’s 10-point counter to the US 15-point ceasefire shows signs of willingness to compromise (‘reparations’ from US dropped as a demand). Vance says war will end “very shortly”. Russia, China veto UNSC Hormuz resolution.

*  *  *

Axios Cites ‘Glimmer’ of Progress as Trump Deadline Looms

More from Axios’ Barak Ravid, though we should note that it’s increasingly difficult to know what has legitimacy:

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump’s 8pm ET deadline still looks like a long shot, according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official and two other sources with knowledge of the talks.

• A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from “can we get there?” to “can we get there by 8 o’clock tonight?”

These wild headline swings (and in markets) concerning positive or negative signs on the status of indirect negotiations have been going for weeks at this point. 

WH Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt thinks it’s assuring to inform the public that only Trump knows “where things stand and what he will do,” adding: “The Iranian regime has until 8PM Eastern Time to meet the moment and make a deal with the United States.”

Russia, China Veto Hormuz Strait Resolution at UNSC

On Tuesday a UN Security Council resolution on opening the Strait of Hormuz failed due to Russia and China vetoing it. It was drafted by Bahrain and authorized countries to use military force if necessary to open the strait for the free flow of shipping and commerce.

The resolution garnered 11 votes in favor, but permanent veto-wielding members China and Russia blocked it by registering no votes. This comes after days of pressure from Gulf countries to restore free passage in the strait, amid Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. Russia complained that the UN res would damage “very fragile truce negotiations” by given broad allowance to use military force to reopen the waterway.

Tehran Times Reverses in Astounding Correction, Now Says Talks Are Not Closed

The NY Times had also said it only within the last hour, based on the initial headline out of Tehran, that all backchannel talks were suspended.

Tehran Times deleted this post from 2 hours ago saying all communication with US has closed.

Trump Hints at Possible Deadline Extension

In a call with FOX’s Bret Baier, Trump says 8 PM deadline today “could change if negotiations move forward, but sticking to deadline for now.” And yet Tehran has said it has suspended all back channel negotiations. TACO Tuesday? 

TRUMP TELLS FOX NEWS IF NEGOTIATIONS ADVANCE AND THERE IS SOMETHING TANGIBLE WE MIGHT EXTEND THE DEADLINE: AL ARABIYA

Meanwhile, per news wires and CNN:

The Israeli military is on standby and ready to launch strikes on Iran ahead of US President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an Israeli security source tells CNN. The Israeli security source said plans have been prepared for a combined US-lsraeli operation with full military coordination pending a green light from Trump.

Iran: All Diplomatic Channels With US Have Ceased

“Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the US,” Tehran Times has reported. The publication says that “Any and all message exchanges have also been suspended.”

The Tehran Times is seen as tied to the hardline factions of the government, and calls itself the “voice of the Islamic Revolution” – but is not directly state-owned per se.

The NY Times also confirms “Iran has stopped negotiating with the US and it told Pakistan that it will not continue ceasefire talks.”

Meanwhile President Masoud Pezeshkian has praised the willingness of “14 million” Iranian citizens to “sacrifice” by taking to the streets, seeking to protect power plants and other sensitive vital infrastructure, as the US-Israeli bombs rain down. US conservative MSM publications have decried this as a form of “human shields”. 

‘Human chains’ seen on some bridges…

Iranians form human shield at Kazeroun power plant ahead of Trump’s threatened strikes. pic.twitter.com/Le2VcEpPQv

— Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) April 7, 2026

And apparently at nuclear sites…

JUST IN:

Iranians are gathering on bridges and around power plants, forming human chains after threats of US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/DrGFZlfP0E

— Current Report (@Currentreport1) April 7, 2026

WH Trying to Manufacture ‘Mission Accomplished’? Vance Says Objectives Completed

Vice President JD Vance has said that “very shortly” this war will be “completed” in a Tuesday morning statement. He stated specifically that the military objectives have been accomplished, adding there are “two pathways” – and that optimistically this will involve “lots of negotiations” – but with a deadline of 8pm ET. The US is “confident it will get an Iran response.”

The below is from Hala Jaber, a longtime Sunday Times journalist and veteran Middle East war correspondent:

Trump is scrambling behind the scenes for a ceasefire with Iran, according to claims emerging via Fars News Agency. Allegations point to urgent outreach through multiple governments & intelligence channels. Citing what it describes as an “informed source,” the report claims the U.S. has been pushing for a ceasefire via backchannels, using countries it believes have credibility with Tehran.

According to the same account, Iran received calls from five heads of government & eight intelligence agencies, all seeking to open a path toward a ceasefire. It further claims Washington is considering reshaping its negotiation team, including removing Witkoff due to his ties to Netanyahu’s circle & replacing him with Vance to lead a more serious track. The urgency, the source says, is driven by mounting military & economic pressure, including fears of surging fuel prices. If true, it would mark a stark contrast to the public posture.

“I hope they make the right response,” says @VP on Iran.

“They’ve got to know, we’ve got tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use. @POTUS can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them if the Iranians don’t change their course of conduct.” pic.twitter.com/UUiQ5SdEO5

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 7, 2026

Trump: A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight

Trump seems to be openly announcing plans for genocide – saying he’s going to annihilate an entire civilization. What else do you call this? “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” he threatened in a Tuesday Truth Social Post. “However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?” – he continued.

Meanwhile, according to The Associated Press:

Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure.

Kharg Island Bombed (Again)

Kharg Island is being bombed again on Tuesday, with a senior US officials telling Fox’s Jennifer Griffin that the “U.S. hit dozens of military targets on Kharg Island overnight.” Per the fresh reporting the targets included bunkers, a radar station, and ammunition storage.

However, the same officials described that landing docks were not intentionally targeted – that they only would have been struck if Iranians fired something from next to them. This development has led to speculation that this could be another round of softening operations to prepare for some kind of US Marine or special forces seizure.

This send oil back to the highs…

This would without doubt be very high risk, with the potential for significant US casualties. More from Griffin:

The strikes on Kharg Island were carried out solely by the US, not  Israel, I am told. “This is a message to the Iranians,” a senior US official told me.

Axios cites a US official to say the strikes on Kharg island were not directed at oil infrastructure, but were “re-strikes” on military targets that were hit previously.

NOW: U.S. airstrikes targeting shelters and defensive facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island. pic.twitter.com/k1pauNpb6A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 7, 2026

Bridges, Power Plants, Tit-For-Tat Warning

President Trump has been warning of the “complete demolition” of Iran’s power plants and bridges in a matter of hours – so by Tuesday’s end – if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened by his deadline. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, is urging some last minute diplomatic action, warning, “We are close to the point where the situation in the region could spiral out of control.” There have meanwhile been reports of more Iranian attacks on Qatar. “There are no winners if this war continues,” he said.

But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not backing down, having on Tuesday claimed responsibility for attacks on petrochemical facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail region, stating the strikes were retaliation for earlier Israeli attacks on its Shiraz petrochemical facility.

Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges would trigger reciprocal attacks on regional infrastructure. The IRGC stated it targeted American companies in Jubail with missiles and drones, including Sadra, ExxonMobil, and Dark Chemical.

Images posted online show damage to a highway bridge between the northwestern Iranian cities of Hashtroud and Tabriz, following apparent Israeli strikes.

It also stated that a petrochemical complex in Juaymah belonging to the US company Shourdan Phillips was struck with medium-range missiles and drones.

Israeli Attacks on Iran Rail, Infrastructure Have Already Begun

Iran’s Mehr News Agency is reporting attacks on Iran’s rail system, including an Israeli strike hit the Yahya Abad railway bridge in the city of Kashan, in central Iran. The Deputy Governor of Isfahan has said that the strike killed two people.

The attack came after the IDF issued a warning telling Iranians against using trains for their “safety” until 9pm local time (17:30 GMT).

The governor of Mashhad has already announced the immediate suspension of all rail services departing the city amid the Israeli threat. It’s being reported as a precautionary measure that will remain in effect “until further notice”. Apparently this rail operation is being done only by the Israeli side of the bombing campaign.

More on Iran’s 10-Point Response to US Ceasefire Plan

Iran has delivered its highly anticipated “10-point” response to the US’ “15-point peace plan.” Iran’s 10-point plan includes, according to a paraphrase:

1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire

3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon

4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran

5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies

6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz

7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship

8. Iran would split these fees with Oman

9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz

10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations

Importantly, Tehran has dropped its demand for full war reconstruction reparations to be paid directly by the United States, providing a potential window to reach actual compromise with Washington.

75 Gulf Energy Assets Damaged In U.S.-Iran War As Supply Shock Intensifies

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock “is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined” because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

The newspaper asked Birol, “How quickly can Gulf production recover?”

He responded:

“We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.”

Cherry-picking the most important parts of the interview:

Le Figaro asked: Who will suffer the most?

Birol responded: The global economy will suffer. Of course, European countries will struggle, as will Japan, Australia, and others. But developing countries will be the most affected due to high oil, gas, and food prices, and accelerating inflation. Their economic growth will be heavily impacted. I fear many developing countries will see their external debt rise significantly. That is why I am pessimistic—this crisis stems not from energy itself, but from geopolitics.

Le Figaro asked: Which countries are most exposed to shortages?

Birol responded: Import-dependent countries are most exposed: in Asia—South Korea, Japan, but especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. African countries will also be heavily affected, as developing nations have limited financial flexibility.

Le Figaro asked: How quickly can Gulf production recover?

Birol responded: We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.

Le Figaro asked: How significant is the drop in Gulf oil production?

Birol responded: Enormous. These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a “black April.” In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.

Birol has painted a bleak outlook for energy markets and the global economy for weeks in various interviews. 

However, emerging through the fog of war, the U.S. appears poised to be a net beneficiary of the chaos across the Gulf, with energy flows expected to remain disrupted for some time.

• Qatar Dethroned As ‘LNG King’ As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

• Wyoming’s Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat

A reminder to readers of JPMorgan’s note last week, mapping how the energy shock dominoes begin to fall. Read it here.

* * *

On Tuesday a UN Security Council resolution on opening the Strait of Hormuz failed due to Russia and China vetoing it. It was drafted by Bahrain and authorized countries to use military force if necessary to open the strait for the free flow of shipping and commerce.

The resolution garnered 11 votes in favor, but permanent veto-wielding members China and Russia blocked it by registering no votes. This comes after days of pressure from Gulf countries to restore free passage in the strait, amid Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.

Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi earlier in the week lamented, “Our countries are subjected to a sinful Iranian aggression, and GCC countries have a legitimate right to self-defense. The Security Council must take measures to ensure the protection of waterways, and we demand that the Security Council issue a resolution securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”

And Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, stated “Iranian attacks on neighboring countries cannot be justified. The draft resolution is consistent with international law and looks forward to a unified position.”

From Moscow and Beijing’s point of view, the resolution could be used to escalate US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic:

It appears that China and Russia expressed concerns about the invocation of Chapter VII, arguing that such authorization could be interpreted as legitimizing the use of force by member states without clearly defined limits. They also raised concerns about the potential imposition of sanctions and maintained that the draft failed to address the root causes of the current crisis in the Middle East. In their view, the text risked exacerbating tensions rather than promoting de-escalation, and they urged Bahrain not to advance the initiative. These reservations led China and Russia to break silence twice.

Also, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that if resolution passed it would disrupt “very fragile chances for negotiations.”

So essentially Russia and China viewed it as a ‘pro-war’ mandate which is too sympathetic to Washington’s aims in Iran.

President Trump has meanwhile been busy venting his frustration at the ongoing closure of the strait, warning Iran that its “whole civilization will die tonight” if it doesn’t agree to Washington’s ceasefire terms. Tehran has said it is only interested in a permanent truce which ensures it never gets attacked again.

Ahead of Friday’s CPI report, inflation fears are already rising, with the NY Fed’s latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reporting that Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were higher at 3.42% in March from the previous month’s 3.00%, matching the highest since April ’25. Inflation expectations also increased by 0.1% to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.

The jump in year-ahead expectations was driven by a surge in gas inflation which rose 5.3% to 9.4%, the highest reading since March 2022.

Other commodity price change expectations also rose, but to a more limited degree: food prices are now expected to rise 6%; medical costs to rise 9.7%; the price of a college education to rise 9%; rent prices to rise 7.1%.

Turning to the labor market, sentiment is deteriorating fast with respondents saying that the mean probability the US unemployment rate will be higher next year rose 3.6% to 43.5%; highest reading since April 2025

On the other end, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1% point to 2.4% in March, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.6% and at the low end of its range seen since May 2021 of 2.4% to 3.0%.

More bad news: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 14.4%. The reading remains below the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months also increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.

The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, while remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.5%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations also deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation.  Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025, and a smaller share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a larger share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability slightly deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 12.3%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 13.2%. The increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 60, those with some college education, and those with annual household incomes below $50,000.

And some more Household Finance observations:

• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.8%, remaining well above the 12-month trailing average of 7.4%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.

More in the full report from the NY Fed.

Authored by Francisco Rodrigues via CoinDesk.com,

• Tokenization could reshape finance by enabling instant settlement and cutting out intermediaries, and introduces new risks that regulators are not yet equipped to manage, the IMF said.

• Tokenization could amplify volatility through automated markets and smart contracts, the report said.

• The IMF called for clearer legal frameworks and stronger global coordination, warning that tokenized assets moving instantly across jurisdictions could complicate oversight and deepen financial fragmentation in the absence of proper regulation.

Tokenization, the representation of real-life assets on a blockchain, could reshape both crypto markets and traditional finance, while introducing new risks that regulators are not yet equipped to manage, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In a new report, the IMF described tokenization as more than a technical upgrade to markets. By moving assets like money, bonds and funds onto shared blockchains, transactions can settle instantly, cutting out intermediaries and reducing delays that define today’s markets.

The IMF says the “atomic settlement” that tokenization brings to the financial world could lower counterparty risk and force firms to manage liquidity in real time.

“Stress events are likely to unfold faster, leaving less time for discretionary intervention,” the report reads.

“Therefore, ensuring stability requires that tokenized asset management remains anchored in safe settlement assets, legally recognized finality, and robust governance arrangements.”

The report points to stablecoins — tokens whose value is pegged to a fiat currency — as a key bridge between crypto and traditional finance.

These could become widely used settlement assets across tokenized platforms, the report said.

Still, their reliability depends on reserves and redemption systems, leaving them exposed to runs under stress.

The IMF also warned that faster, automated markets could amplify volatility, while smart contracts that trigger margin calls or liquidations may accelerate selloffs during downturns. Such rapid declines have been seen in crypto markets,

Tokenized assets also can move instantly across jurisdictions, complicating oversight and raising concerns about capital flight and currency substitution in emerging markets, the IMF wrote.

The organization called for clearer legal frameworks and stronger global coordination, arguing that without them, tokenized finance could deepen fragmentation rather than improve efficiency.

Tokenization has been a growing theme in the crypto sector. Real-world assets added to blockchain rails have already topped $23.2 billion according to DeFiLlama data. Excluding stablecoins, the majority of that figure is in the form of tokenized gold or money market funds.

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S Vice President JD Vance arrived in Budapest on April 7 for a two-day visit aimed at bolstering Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s campaign, ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections on April 12.

Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, were greeted at the Budapest airport by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

The two men greeted one another warmly, and Szijjarto presented Usha Vance with a bouquet of flowers.

“I’m looking forward to seeing my good friend Viktor, and we’ll talk about any number of things related to the U.S.-Hungary relationship,” JD Vance told reporters before leaving Washington on Tuesday.

He said the discussions would also cover broader relations with Europe and Ukraine.

Speaking alongside the Hungarian prime minister during his two-day visit in Budapest, Vance said “the amount of interference that’s come from the bureaucracy in Brussels has been truly disgraceful.” 

“I won’t tell the people in Hungary how to vote,” he said, speaking ahead of this weekend’s election.

“I’d encourage the bureaucrats in Brussels to do the exact same thing.”

The election will decide whether Orban secures a fifth consecutive term as prime minister.

Domestic concerns such as the economy and European Union relations are expected to dominate voter decisions in the parliamentary election.

“The bureaucrats in Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary,” Vance said on Tuesday.

“They have tried to make Hungary less energy independent. They have tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers. And they’ve done it all because they hate this guy.”

On Feb. 15, opposition leader Peter Magyar launched the Tisza party’s election campaign in Budapest. The party has set out plans to draw Hungary closer to EU institutions.

Orban, whose Fidesz party has held power since 2010, is one of the EU’s most vocal supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the close ties between the United States and Hungary during a February trip to Budapest.

He told Orban that Trump is “deeply committed” to Hungary’s success, “because your success is our success.”

Rubio also signed a civil nuclear energy agreement with Hungarian officials to expand decades of cooperation in the sector.

Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, said the vice president’s latest visit is “not routine diplomacy.”

“For the Trump administration, Orban is not just a fellow conservative ​but a central figure in efforts to establish an illiberal bloc inside Europe. If Orban falls, the movement would suffer,” he said.

In 2023, the Hungarian prime minister publicly declared his support for Trump’s return to the White House. The two leaders met privately at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in March 2024 to discuss issues, including border security.

Trump on Feb. 13 posted an endorsement of Orban on Truth Social, calling him a “truly strong and powerful Leader, with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results.”

“I was proud to ENDORSE Viktor for Re-Election in 2022, and am honored to do so again,” Trump wrote. “Viktor Orbán is a true friend, fighter, and WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Hungary — HE WILL NEVER LET THE GREAT PEOPLE OF HUNGARY DOWN!”

Apple is about 8 years late to the foldable smartphone space, with Samsung’s Galaxy Fold released in October 2018. Now, Tim Cook’s big launch of Apple’s first foldable smartphone could face “delays in its mass production and product shipment schedule,” according to new Nikkei Asia sources deep within the handset supply chain.

Supply chain sources told the Japanese business outlet that the complexity of the new foldable iPhone is causing engineering problems during early testing, and these issues could delay mass production and shipments by months.

Some suppliers have already been warned that component production schedules could be pushed back.

“It’s true that more issues than expected have emerged during the early test production phase, and additional time will be needed to resolve them and make necessary adjustments. … The current situation could put the mass production timeline at risk,” one of those sources said.

The source added, “April will mark a crucial stage of the engineering verification test, and this month through early May is extremely critical.”

Nikkei previously reported that Apple adjusted its iPhone launch strategy for 2026, pushing back production of base model iPhones to early 2027 to prioritize production of premium models, including foldable iPhones. This move is intended to allocate constrained supplies of memory chips and other key components more efficiently.

Another person in the handset supply chain said the potential schedule delay has very little to do with memory chips, but rather with “engineering challenges” for Apple’s first foldable iPhone: “Apple and the supply chain are working under a tight timeline, and the current solutions are not enough to completely solve the engineering challenges. More time is needed.”

Nikkei Asia’s supply chain checks suggest Apple will initially produce 7 million to 8 million foldable iPhones.

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

As traders return from the Easter break markets are again counting down to an ultimatum deadline set by President Trump. Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to warn the Iranian regime to make a deal, threatening that Tuesday will be “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day” where infrastructure of that kind will be targeted by American forces if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has set a deadline of 8pm ET for a deal to be reached; Iran has said that it will retaliate against energy and water infrastructure of Gulf states if it is struck.

So, today is ‘Bridge Day’, but will it be a day for burning bridges, or building them?

WILD FOOTAGE 🔴

A tanker blast near the Bridge of the Americas in Panama City ignited a major fire that spread to 2 additional storage units at the Balboa tank facility. Reports of 3 injuries, no foul play suspected (as of now) pic.twitter.com/GeAcicCVQe

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 6, 2026

US equity futures are pointing slightly negative in early trade. Ten-year sovereign yields are mostly lower, short yields are mixed, and hints of haven buying are again evident in precious metals, the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Bitcoin is selling off in early trade after catching a sharper bid on Monday in continuation of a rally that has been underway since the Friday before last. Asian stocks have opened mixed with Chinese indices down slightly, the Nikkei mostly unchanged and the Aussie ASX is rallying to be up 1.5% at time of writing.

Axios reported over the weekend that the US and Iran were discussing terms for a 45-day ceasefire, but that prospects for agreement are slim. This puts us firmly back into ‘escalate to de-escalate’ territory, while also pushing us further along the severity spectrum where the Strait remains closed for longer and damage to economic infrastructure means that ‘re-opening’ does not imply any kind of rapid snap-back for the global economy.

Infrastructure damage is mounting. Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical infrastructure at the South Pars gas field. Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missile strikes against Saudi Arabia’s Al-Jubail industrial city – the world’s largest petrochemicals production cluster. The WTI front future is up 0.7% this morning to $113.15/bbl, while dated-Brent closed at $141.26/bbl on Thursday – highlighting the wide spread between physical crude and the front future ($109.88/bbl), which is now the June contract.

Reports have emerged that Iran has issued a new 10-point peace plan via intermediaries to the United States. Axios reports comments from a US official calling the Iranian plan “maximalist” while Israeli PM Netanyahu has reportedly warned Trump against agreeing to a ceasefire plan. Trump himself has said that Iran’s overture was “significant” but “not good enough”.

According to the New York Times, the Iranian plan reportedly includes:

• A permanent end to the war, rather than just a ceasefire
• Guarantees that Iran would not be attacked again
• An end to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Lifting of all sanctions
• Ending the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
• Implementing a $2 million per ship Hormuz transit fee to be split with Oman
• Iran’s share of the proceeds to be used for reconstruction in lieu of reparations

Notably absent is any mention of missile caps, missile production, uranium enrichment or what happens with the 500kg of uranium that Iran has already enriched close to weapons grade. Given that the entire rationale for the war has been ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions and dismantling its ability to sprint for a nuclear weapon behind the shelter of a conventional weapons deterrent, these are likely to be non-negotiables for the United States. Consequently, the risk of the US running out of patience and initiating large strikes on Iranian electricity and transport infrastructure is very real.

While the short term implications of the war are stealing the headlines this morning, the longer-term implications are potentially much more important. The FT and the Australian media are carrying stories of surging demand for electric vehicles as the oil shock prompts consumers to seek to reduce their exposure to the oil supply chain, but perhaps the most acute consequence of the war is the rift opening between the United States and other NATO allies.

Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO (and some non-NATO) allies in recent days for failing to lend a hand in the war against Iran. Spain, France and Italy have either fully closed or placed restrictions on US military operations within their airspace, as has Austria. The UK initially dragged its feet before offering limited support to the Americans while continually emphasizing that this is not Britain’s war and that it is not involved in offensive operations. Similarly, France recently joined with Russia and China at the UN Security Council to block a resolution backed by Gulf states to authorize the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz by force – insisting that the Strait will only re-open with the cooperation of Iran.

Needless to say, these actions have gone down like a lead balloon in Washington where senior officials are now publicly questioning what strategic purpose NATO serves for the United States. The argument goes that the US incurs great cost to maintain bases and forward deployment of troops to protect Europe, but is then stymied by Europeans when it seeks to use those assets for its own purposes. From the US perspective, NATO is a one-way street.

There is already a deep sense in Washington that Europe has been free-riding on US military might for years by under-investing in its own capabilities. This state of affairs might be hard enough to stomach on its own, but when it is combined with European moralising over the appropriate uses of military force it becomes untenable. As noted here last week, this puts the Greenland question back into play as European assurances over access to bases appear increasingly insincere.

On the European side, French President Macron (fresh from being subjected to personal slights by Trump) has echoed Canadian PM Mark Carney in calling for greater cooperation among medium-sized powers to stand up against the United States and China. It is unclear how this would work, or could work, given the disparate interests of prospective partners and the lack of economic integration between them.

For a comprehensive architecture that could truly withstand outside pressure from would-be hegemons, thought would need to be paid to mutual defence, the balancing of trade flows and capital market integration. All of these items have eluded the European Union for decades, despite its smaller size and advantage of common geography. It similarly eluded the British Empire, despite having the benefit of a unifying British culture amongst its dominions.

This latent re-ordering of the international security architecture is not playing out in isolation. It should be remembered that another major war continues to rage in Ukraine. Ukraine has managed to do substantial damage to Russian economic (oil) infrastructure in recent weeks even as the rest of the world is desperate for more oil to come to market. Ukraine is now offering its drone warfare expertise to the Gulf states, while Russia continues to support Iran militarily. Europe and the United States continue to view this as two distinct conflicts where each has a direct interest in one, but not the other.

As we approach the deadline for escalation a significant ‘what if’ lingers: If the lines between the two conflicts continue to blur and two coalesce into one, who then will say “not our war”?