Ahead of Friday’s CPI report, inflation fears are already rising, with the NY Fed’s latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reporting that Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were higher at 3.42% in March from the previous month’s 3.00%, matching the highest since April ’25. Inflation expectations also increased by 0.1% to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.

The jump in year-ahead expectations was driven by a surge in gas inflation which rose 5.3% to 9.4%, the highest reading since March 2022.

Other commodity price change expectations also rose, but to a more limited degree: food prices are now expected to rise 6%; medical costs to rise 9.7%; the price of a college education to rise 9%; rent prices to rise 7.1%.

Turning to the labor market, sentiment is deteriorating fast with respondents saying that the mean probability the US unemployment rate will be higher next year rose 3.6% to 43.5%; highest reading since April 2025

On the other end, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1% point to 2.4% in March, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.6% and at the low end of its range seen since May 2021 of 2.4% to 3.0%.

More bad news: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 14.4%. The reading remains below the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months also increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.

The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, while remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.5%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations also deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation.  Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025, and a smaller share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a larger share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability slightly deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 12.3%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 13.2%. The increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 60, those with some college education, and those with annual household incomes below $50,000.

And some more Household Finance observations:

• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.8%, remaining well above the 12-month trailing average of 7.4%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.

More in the full report from the NY Fed.

Authored by Francisco Rodrigues via CoinDesk.com,

• Tokenization could reshape finance by enabling instant settlement and cutting out intermediaries, and introduces new risks that regulators are not yet equipped to manage, the IMF said.

• Tokenization could amplify volatility through automated markets and smart contracts, the report said.

• The IMF called for clearer legal frameworks and stronger global coordination, warning that tokenized assets moving instantly across jurisdictions could complicate oversight and deepen financial fragmentation in the absence of proper regulation.

Tokenization, the representation of real-life assets on a blockchain, could reshape both crypto markets and traditional finance, while introducing new risks that regulators are not yet equipped to manage, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In a new report, the IMF described tokenization as more than a technical upgrade to markets. By moving assets like money, bonds and funds onto shared blockchains, transactions can settle instantly, cutting out intermediaries and reducing delays that define today’s markets.

The IMF says the “atomic settlement” that tokenization brings to the financial world could lower counterparty risk and force firms to manage liquidity in real time.

“Stress events are likely to unfold faster, leaving less time for discretionary intervention,” the report reads.

“Therefore, ensuring stability requires that tokenized asset management remains anchored in safe settlement assets, legally recognized finality, and robust governance arrangements.”

The report points to stablecoins — tokens whose value is pegged to a fiat currency — as a key bridge between crypto and traditional finance.

These could become widely used settlement assets across tokenized platforms, the report said.

Still, their reliability depends on reserves and redemption systems, leaving them exposed to runs under stress.

The IMF also warned that faster, automated markets could amplify volatility, while smart contracts that trigger margin calls or liquidations may accelerate selloffs during downturns. Such rapid declines have been seen in crypto markets,

Tokenized assets also can move instantly across jurisdictions, complicating oversight and raising concerns about capital flight and currency substitution in emerging markets, the IMF wrote.

The organization called for clearer legal frameworks and stronger global coordination, arguing that without them, tokenized finance could deepen fragmentation rather than improve efficiency.

Tokenization has been a growing theme in the crypto sector. Real-world assets added to blockchain rails have already topped $23.2 billion according to DeFiLlama data. Excluding stablecoins, the majority of that figure is in the form of tokenized gold or money market funds.

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

U.S Vice President JD Vance arrived in Budapest on April 7 for a two-day visit aimed at bolstering Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s campaign, ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections on April 12.

Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, were greeted at the Budapest airport by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

The two men greeted one another warmly, and Szijjarto presented Usha Vance with a bouquet of flowers.

“I’m looking forward to seeing my good friend Viktor, and we’ll talk about any number of things related to the U.S.-Hungary relationship,” JD Vance told reporters before leaving Washington on Tuesday.

He said the discussions would also cover broader relations with Europe and Ukraine.

Speaking alongside the Hungarian prime minister during his two-day visit in Budapest, Vance said “the amount of interference that’s come from the bureaucracy in Brussels has been truly disgraceful.” 

“I won’t tell the people in Hungary how to vote,” he said, speaking ahead of this weekend’s election.

“I’d encourage the bureaucrats in Brussels to do the exact same thing.”

The election will decide whether Orban secures a fifth consecutive term as prime minister.

Domestic concerns such as the economy and European Union relations are expected to dominate voter decisions in the parliamentary election.

“The bureaucrats in Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary,” Vance said on Tuesday.

“They have tried to make Hungary less energy independent. They have tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers. And they’ve done it all because they hate this guy.”

On Feb. 15, opposition leader Peter Magyar launched the Tisza party’s election campaign in Budapest. The party has set out plans to draw Hungary closer to EU institutions.

Orban, whose Fidesz party has held power since 2010, is one of the EU’s most vocal supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the close ties between the United States and Hungary during a February trip to Budapest.

He told Orban that Trump is “deeply committed” to Hungary’s success, “because your success is our success.”

Rubio also signed a civil nuclear energy agreement with Hungarian officials to expand decades of cooperation in the sector.

Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, said the vice president’s latest visit is “not routine diplomacy.”

“For the Trump administration, Orban is not just a fellow conservative ​but a central figure in efforts to establish an illiberal bloc inside Europe. If Orban falls, the movement would suffer,” he said.

In 2023, the Hungarian prime minister publicly declared his support for Trump’s return to the White House. The two leaders met privately at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in March 2024 to discuss issues, including border security.

Trump on Feb. 13 posted an endorsement of Orban on Truth Social, calling him a “truly strong and powerful Leader, with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results.”

“I was proud to ENDORSE Viktor for Re-Election in 2022, and am honored to do so again,” Trump wrote. “Viktor Orbán is a true friend, fighter, and WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Hungary — HE WILL NEVER LET THE GREAT PEOPLE OF HUNGARY DOWN!”

Apple is about 8 years late to the foldable smartphone space, with Samsung’s Galaxy Fold released in October 2018. Now, Tim Cook’s big launch of Apple’s first foldable smartphone could face “delays in its mass production and product shipment schedule,” according to new Nikkei Asia sources deep within the handset supply chain.

Supply chain sources told the Japanese business outlet that the complexity of the new foldable iPhone is causing engineering problems during early testing, and these issues could delay mass production and shipments by months.

Some suppliers have already been warned that component production schedules could be pushed back.

“It’s true that more issues than expected have emerged during the early test production phase, and additional time will be needed to resolve them and make necessary adjustments. … The current situation could put the mass production timeline at risk,” one of those sources said.

The source added, “April will mark a crucial stage of the engineering verification test, and this month through early May is extremely critical.”

Nikkei previously reported that Apple adjusted its iPhone launch strategy for 2026, pushing back production of base model iPhones to early 2027 to prioritize production of premium models, including foldable iPhones. This move is intended to allocate constrained supplies of memory chips and other key components more efficiently.

Another person in the handset supply chain said the potential schedule delay has very little to do with memory chips, but rather with “engineering challenges” for Apple’s first foldable iPhone: “Apple and the supply chain are working under a tight timeline, and the current solutions are not enough to completely solve the engineering challenges. More time is needed.”

Nikkei Asia’s supply chain checks suggest Apple will initially produce 7 million to 8 million foldable iPhones.

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

As traders return from the Easter break markets are again counting down to an ultimatum deadline set by President Trump. Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to warn the Iranian regime to make a deal, threatening that Tuesday will be “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day” where infrastructure of that kind will be targeted by American forces if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has set a deadline of 8pm ET for a deal to be reached; Iran has said that it will retaliate against energy and water infrastructure of Gulf states if it is struck.

So, today is ‘Bridge Day’, but will it be a day for burning bridges, or building them?

WILD FOOTAGE 🔴

A tanker blast near the Bridge of the Americas in Panama City ignited a major fire that spread to 2 additional storage units at the Balboa tank facility. Reports of 3 injuries, no foul play suspected (as of now) pic.twitter.com/GeAcicCVQe

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 6, 2026

US equity futures are pointing slightly negative in early trade. Ten-year sovereign yields are mostly lower, short yields are mixed, and hints of haven buying are again evident in precious metals, the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Bitcoin is selling off in early trade after catching a sharper bid on Monday in continuation of a rally that has been underway since the Friday before last. Asian stocks have opened mixed with Chinese indices down slightly, the Nikkei mostly unchanged and the Aussie ASX is rallying to be up 1.5% at time of writing.

Axios reported over the weekend that the US and Iran were discussing terms for a 45-day ceasefire, but that prospects for agreement are slim. This puts us firmly back into ‘escalate to de-escalate’ territory, while also pushing us further along the severity spectrum where the Strait remains closed for longer and damage to economic infrastructure means that ‘re-opening’ does not imply any kind of rapid snap-back for the global economy.

Infrastructure damage is mounting. Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical infrastructure at the South Pars gas field. Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missile strikes against Saudi Arabia’s Al-Jubail industrial city – the world’s largest petrochemicals production cluster. The WTI front future is up 0.7% this morning to $113.15/bbl, while dated-Brent closed at $141.26/bbl on Thursday – highlighting the wide spread between physical crude and the front future ($109.88/bbl), which is now the June contract.

Reports have emerged that Iran has issued a new 10-point peace plan via intermediaries to the United States. Axios reports comments from a US official calling the Iranian plan “maximalist” while Israeli PM Netanyahu has reportedly warned Trump against agreeing to a ceasefire plan. Trump himself has said that Iran’s overture was “significant” but “not good enough”.

According to the New York Times, the Iranian plan reportedly includes:

• A permanent end to the war, rather than just a ceasefire
• Guarantees that Iran would not be attacked again
• An end to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon
• Lifting of all sanctions
• Ending the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
• Implementing a $2 million per ship Hormuz transit fee to be split with Oman
• Iran’s share of the proceeds to be used for reconstruction in lieu of reparations

Notably absent is any mention of missile caps, missile production, uranium enrichment or what happens with the 500kg of uranium that Iran has already enriched close to weapons grade. Given that the entire rationale for the war has been ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions and dismantling its ability to sprint for a nuclear weapon behind the shelter of a conventional weapons deterrent, these are likely to be non-negotiables for the United States. Consequently, the risk of the US running out of patience and initiating large strikes on Iranian electricity and transport infrastructure is very real.

While the short term implications of the war are stealing the headlines this morning, the longer-term implications are potentially much more important. The FT and the Australian media are carrying stories of surging demand for electric vehicles as the oil shock prompts consumers to seek to reduce their exposure to the oil supply chain, but perhaps the most acute consequence of the war is the rift opening between the United States and other NATO allies.

Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO (and some non-NATO) allies in recent days for failing to lend a hand in the war against Iran. Spain, France and Italy have either fully closed or placed restrictions on US military operations within their airspace, as has Austria. The UK initially dragged its feet before offering limited support to the Americans while continually emphasizing that this is not Britain’s war and that it is not involved in offensive operations. Similarly, France recently joined with Russia and China at the UN Security Council to block a resolution backed by Gulf states to authorize the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz by force – insisting that the Strait will only re-open with the cooperation of Iran.

Needless to say, these actions have gone down like a lead balloon in Washington where senior officials are now publicly questioning what strategic purpose NATO serves for the United States. The argument goes that the US incurs great cost to maintain bases and forward deployment of troops to protect Europe, but is then stymied by Europeans when it seeks to use those assets for its own purposes. From the US perspective, NATO is a one-way street.

There is already a deep sense in Washington that Europe has been free-riding on US military might for years by under-investing in its own capabilities. This state of affairs might be hard enough to stomach on its own, but when it is combined with European moralising over the appropriate uses of military force it becomes untenable. As noted here last week, this puts the Greenland question back into play as European assurances over access to bases appear increasingly insincere.

On the European side, French President Macron (fresh from being subjected to personal slights by Trump) has echoed Canadian PM Mark Carney in calling for greater cooperation among medium-sized powers to stand up against the United States and China. It is unclear how this would work, or could work, given the disparate interests of prospective partners and the lack of economic integration between them.

For a comprehensive architecture that could truly withstand outside pressure from would-be hegemons, thought would need to be paid to mutual defence, the balancing of trade flows and capital market integration. All of these items have eluded the European Union for decades, despite its smaller size and advantage of common geography. It similarly eluded the British Empire, despite having the benefit of a unifying British culture amongst its dominions.

This latent re-ordering of the international security architecture is not playing out in isolation. It should be remembered that another major war continues to rage in Ukraine. Ukraine has managed to do substantial damage to Russian economic (oil) infrastructure in recent weeks even as the rest of the world is desperate for more oil to come to market. Ukraine is now offering its drone warfare expertise to the Gulf states, while Russia continues to support Iran militarily. Europe and the United States continue to view this as two distinct conflicts where each has a direct interest in one, but not the other.

As we approach the deadline for escalation a significant ‘what if’ lingers: If the lines between the two conflicts continue to blur and two coalesce into one, who then will say “not our war”?

Summary: 

• Kharg Island heavily bombed in preparation for potential US Marine/Special Forces ground siezure.

• Israel has begun attacking Iran’s railway infrastructure, telling civilians to not take trains, cancelations across country.

• IRGC still defiant – announces new retaliatory attacks on petrochemical plants in eastern Saudi Arabia.

• Iran’s 10-point counter to the US 15-point ceasefire shows signs of willingness to compromise (‘reparations’ from US dropped as a demand). Vance says war will end “very shortly”. Tehran Times: All communications with US side suspended. 

*  *  *

Tehran Times: All Diplomatic Channels With US Have Ceased

“Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the US,” Tehran Times has reported. The publication says that “Any and all message exchanges have also been suspended.”

The Tehran Times is seen as tied to the hardline factions of the government, and calls itself the “voice of the Islamic Revolution” – but is not directly state-owned per se.

Meanwhile President Masoud Pezeshkian has praised the willingness of “14 million” Iranian citizens to “sacrifice” by taking to the streets, seeking to protect power plants and other sensitive vital infrastructure, as the US-Israeli bombs rain down. US conservative MSM publications have decried this as a form of “human shields”. 

WH Trying to Manufacture ‘Mission Accomplished’? Vance Says Objectives Completed

Vice President JD Vance has said that “very shortly” this war will be “completed” in a Tuesday morning statement. He stated specifically that the military objectives have been accomplished, adding there are “two pathways” – and that optimistically this will involve “lots of negotiations” – but with a deadline of 8pm ET. The US is “confident it will get an Iran response.”

The below is from Hala Jaber, a longtime Sunday Times journalist and veteran Middle East war correspondent:

Trump is scrambling behind the scenes for a ceasefire with Iran, according to claims emerging via Fars News Agency. Allegations point to urgent outreach through multiple governments & intelligence channels. Citing what it describes as an “informed source,” the report claims the U.S. has been pushing for a ceasefire via backchannels, using countries it believes have credibility with Tehran.

According to the same account, Iran received calls from five heads of government & eight intelligence agencies, all seeking to open a path toward a ceasefire. It further claims Washington is considering reshaping its negotiation team, including removing Witkoff due to his ties to Netanyahu’s circle & replacing him with Vance to lead a more serious track. The urgency, the source says, is driven by mounting military & economic pressure, including fears of surging fuel prices. If true, it would mark a stark contrast to the public posture.

“I hope they make the right response,” says @VP on Iran.

“They’ve got to know, we’ve got tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use. @POTUS can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them if the Iranians don’t change their course of conduct.” pic.twitter.com/UUiQ5SdEO5

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 7, 2026

Trump: A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight

Trump seems to be openly announcing plans for genocide – saying he’s going to annihilate an entire civilization. What else do you call this? “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” he threatened in a Tuesday Truth Social Post. “However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?” – he continued.

Meanwhile, according to The Associated Press:

Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure.

Kharg Island Bombed (Again)

Kharg Island is being bombed again on Tuesday, with a senior US officials telling Fox’s Jennifer Griffin that the “U.S. hit dozens of military targets on Kharg Island overnight.” Per the fresh reporting the targets included bunkers, a radar station, and ammunition storage.

However, the same officials described that landing docks were not intentionally targeted – that they only would have been struck if Iranians fired something from next to them. This development has led to speculation that this could be another round of softening operations to prepare for some kind of US Marine or special forces seizure.

This send oil back to the highs…

This would without doubt be very high risk, with the potential for significant US casualties. More from Griffin:

The strikes on Kharg Island were carried out solely by the US, not  Israel, I am told. “This is a message to the Iranians,” a senior US official told me.

Axios cites a US official to say the strikes on Kharg island were not directed at oil infrastructure, but were “re-strikes” on military targets that were hit previously.

NOW: U.S. airstrikes targeting shelters and defensive facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island. pic.twitter.com/k1pauNpb6A

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 7, 2026

Bridges, Power Plants, Tit-For-Tat Warning

President Trump has been warning of the “complete demolition” of Iran’s power plants and bridges in a matter of hours – so by Tuesday’s end – if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened by his deadline. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, is urging some last minute diplomatic action, warning, “We are close to the point where the situation in the region could spiral out of control.” There have meanwhile been reports of more Iranian attacks on Qatar. “There are no winners if this war continues,” he said.

But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not backing down, having on Tuesday claimed responsibility for attacks on petrochemical facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail region, stating the strikes were retaliation for earlier Israeli attacks on its Shiraz petrochemical facility.

Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges would trigger reciprocal attacks on regional infrastructure. The IRGC stated it targeted American companies in Jubail with missiles and drones, including Sadra, ExxonMobil, and Dark Chemical.

Images posted online show damage to a highway bridge between the northwestern Iranian cities of Hashtroud and Tabriz, following apparent Israeli strikes.

It also stated that a petrochemical complex in Juaymah belonging to the US company Shourdan Phillips was struck with medium-range missiles and drones.

Israeli Attacks on Iran Rail, Infrastructure Have Already Begun

Iran’s Mehr News Agency is reporting attacks on Iran’s rail system, including an Israeli strike hit the Yahya Abad railway bridge in the city of Kashan, in central Iran. The Deputy Governor of Isfahan has said that the strike killed two people.

The attack came after the IDF issued a warning telling Iranians against using trains for their “safety” until 9pm local time (17:30 GMT).

The governor of Mashhad has already announced the immediate suspension of all rail services departing the city amid the Israeli threat. It’s being reported as a precautionary measure that will remain in effect “until further notice”. Apparently this rail operation is being done only by the Israeli side of the bombing campaign.

More on Iran’s 10-Point Response to US Ceasefire Plan

Iran has delivered its highly anticipated “10-point” response to the US’ “15-point peace plan.” Iran’s 10-point plan includes, according to a paraphrase:

1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire

3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon

4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran

5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies

6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz

7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship

8. Iran would split these fees with Oman

9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz

10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations

Importantly, Tehran has dropped its demand for full war reconstruction reparations to be paid directly by the United States, providing a potential window to reach actual compromise with Washington.

75 Gulf Energy Assets Damaged In U.S.-Iran War As Supply Shock Intensifies

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock “is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined” because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

The newspaper asked Birol, “How quickly can Gulf production recover?”

He responded:

“We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.”

Cherry-picking the most important parts of the interview:

Le Figaro asked: Who will suffer the most?

Birol responded: The global economy will suffer. Of course, European countries will struggle, as will Japan, Australia, and others. But developing countries will be the most affected due to high oil, gas, and food prices, and accelerating inflation. Their economic growth will be heavily impacted. I fear many developing countries will see their external debt rise significantly. That is why I am pessimistic—this crisis stems not from energy itself, but from geopolitics.

Le Figaro asked: Which countries are most exposed to shortages?

Birol responded: Import-dependent countries are most exposed: in Asia—South Korea, Japan, but especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. African countries will also be heavily affected, as developing nations have limited financial flexibility.

Le Figaro asked: How quickly can Gulf production recover?

Birol responded: We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.

Le Figaro asked: How significant is the drop in Gulf oil production?

Birol responded: Enormous. These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a “black April.” In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.

Birol has painted a bleak outlook for energy markets and the global economy for weeks in various interviews. 

However, emerging through the fog of war, the U.S. appears poised to be a net beneficiary of the chaos across the Gulf, with energy flows expected to remain disrupted for some time.

• Qatar Dethroned As ‘LNG King’ As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

• Wyoming’s Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat

A reminder to readers of JPMorgan’s note last week, mapping how the energy shock dominoes begin to fall. Read it here.

Israel’s foreign ministry confirmed that on Tuesday there was a “terrorist attack on the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul” and has thanked Turkish security forces for stopping it before the attackers were able to make it into the building.

“We appreciate the Turkish security forces’ swift action in thwarting this attack,” a statement from the ministry on X said. It added “Israeli missions around the world have been subjected to countless threats and terrorist attacks. Terror will not deter us.” This after rapid gunfire rang out outside a building housing the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul.

Three gunmen armed with long-barreled weapons attacked the building, and quickly engaged in a firefight with Turkish police who were guarding the external premises. 

Istanbul Gov. Davut Gul later announced that one attacker was dead, and the other two – said to be wounded are in custody. A couple of police officers suffered light injuries in the clash, however, some reports say one officer incurred a bullet wound.

Interior Minister Mustafa Cifti later revealed on X that the attackers traveled there from the the city of Izmit in a rented vehicle.

Authorities are reportedly eyeing potential ISIS links, as media characterized that one of the attackers was linked to a group described as “exploiting religion” – which Turkish officials have in the past used to point to the Islamic State. The AP writes:

Video from the attack showed one assailant carrying what appeared to be an assault rifle, wearing a brown backpack, and hiding behind a bus when exchanging fire with police. A police officer falls to the ground, apparently having been shot, and then rolls away to get behind a tree for cover.

Footage captured harrowing scenes shots ringing out at the site amid a heavy police response…

Istanbul attack update:

– Target: Reportedly Israeli Consulate
– Three gunmen attacked the police station outside the building
– Gunmen neutralised, two of them dead, one heavily wounded
– Two police officers wounded
– ISIS style, trained attackerspic.twitter.com/PrrvSXA8Ui

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 7, 2026

Turkish authorities have stated that “Intensive digital communication has been detected among the three neutralised terrorists, and the interrogation of the injured terrorists continues.”

Israeli embassies and consulates globally have been under emergency alert and are in some cases operating in a limited capacity, given the ongoing Iran war and repeat threats to Israeli assets and diplomatic outposts overseas. There could be more such attempted attacks on these outposts to come as the US-Israeli war on Iran persists.

Podcaster Katie Miller, who is also the wife of White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, said on Fox News overnight that the Trump administration and the State Department, under Secretary Marco Rubio, are planning to revoke the visas of thousands of Iranian elites living in the U.S.

“You look at the UK, and look what Keir Starmer has in his own country. You look at the nephew of Khomeini [Ruhollah Khomeini], you look at the niece of Rouhani [Hassan Rouhani]. And you say, why are there so many elites from the Iranian regime being given safety, not only here in America, but in European countries, for so long?” Miller asked while speaking with Fox’s Sean Hannity.

Miller then dropped the bombshell: “I know that President Trump and Secretary Rubio are working so diligently to revoke the visas of nearly three to four thousand Iranian elites who currently live in this country. The double standard, not only in their wardrobe, but in the fact that they get to live here in the greatest country in the world with safety and prosperity. Man, you couldn’t make it up, Sean, if you tried.”

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump and Secretary Rubio are REVOKING 4,000 VISAS of Iranians living in the US, per @KatieMiller

“There’s a double standard! Not only in their wardrobe, but the fact they get to live here in the greatest country in the world, with SAFETY AND PROSPERITY!” pic.twitter.com/QjovHWLg0e

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) April 7, 2026

Attention on Iranian elites living luxurious Western lifestyles has increased in recent weeks, especially after it was discovered that two Iranian women – 47-year-old Hamideh Soleimani Afshar and her daughter, 25-year-old Sarina Sadat Hosseiny, the niece and grandniece of former Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani – had been living in Los Angeles. Both have since been arrested by U.S. immigration officials.

NEW: The niece and grand-niece of slain Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani were reportedly living ‘lavish’ lifestyles in Los Angeles before being arrested by ICE.

Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, the niece, had allegedly celebrated the Iranian attacks on US soldiers.

“While living in the… pic.twitter.com/Qx54LyckA9

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 5, 2026

Rubio recently stated, “The Trump administration will not allow our country to become a home for foreign nationals who support anti-American terrorist regimes.”

Sarinasadat Hosseiny, 25, enjoyed a lavish life in the USA where she was free to drink alcohol and dress as she wished.

Her mother, Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, used America’s freedom of speech to promote the Islamic Republic of Iran.

These relatives of General Qasem Soleimani… pic.twitter.com/M2KPvWHzTh

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 5, 2026

Data reviewed by NewsNation show that nearly 11,000 Iranian nationals invaded the nation under the Biden-Harris regime’s nation-killing open borders.

This week will see the Iran war reach 40 days of fighting, which is a far cry from the mere “four days” some US administration officials offered as a possible ‘optimistic’ timeline at the very opening of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury.

According to the Iran War Cost Tracker portal, the US military operation has cost more than $42 billion thus far. The tracker has arrived at this figure largely based on a Pentagon briefing to Congress on March 10, which disclosed that Washington spent $11.3 billion in the first six days of the new war in the Middle East.

The same briefing indicated the Pentagon planned to spend at least an additional $1 billion per day for the remainder of the conflict.

The real cost could be much, much higher given that at this point dozens of ultra-expensive aircraft and radars have been knocked out by Iran’s ongoing retaliation, and as the US has begun high risk incursions into the region and into Iranian territory itself.

Axios in a report days ago highlighted that “The U.S. is dedicating significant amounts of firepower to the Middle East as it wrestles with Iran. Some of it — billions of dollars’ worth, in fact — will not be returning.”

Describing the mounting costs in terms of blood and treasure, Axios wrote that “Hundreds of American troops have been injured and 13 killed” – and also: “Some exquisite weaponry, everything from stealth jets to radars, has been knocked out.”

Axios continues, “The high end includes costs associated with radar replacement at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and some fixes to the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, which last month suffered an hours-long laundry fire.” The laundry room fire narrative has been subject of immense speculation and skepticism, with the supercarrier undergoing lengthy emergency repairs at its current port of Split, Croatia.

Also confirmed damaged or destroyed are the following:

• One Lockheed Martin F-35A
• One Boeing E-3 Sentry
• One RTX AN/TPY-2 radar
• Three Boeing F-15E Strike Eagles
• Multiple Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers
• Multiple General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers

The lost military hardware, some of which may have yet to be disclosed, itself is a loss in the billions.

Here’s what is known so far about U.S. Air Force losses during Operation Epic Fury:

Total losses are estimated to exceed $2 billion, with replacement costs potentially even higher.

— Four F-15E Strike Eagles have been lost, one over Iran and three downed by friendly fire over… pic.twitter.com/OjaR0gzdWv

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) April 3, 2026

Despite the immense and growing expense on the American taxpayer, there’s still not been a Congressional War Powers resolution passed. As yet, there’s really not been any real or robust debate over the merits or justification of the war among the people’s representatives in Congress.

Independent journalist (formerly of The Intercept) Lee Fang writes, “We learned from the Afghan papers & SIGAR reports that everything the Pentagon and cable media told us about that occupation was a lie. The U.S. installed hated pedophile drug lords to run that country while contractors ransacked billions. The Iran war is 10x more built on lies.” And so the Iran situation could get a lot worse, and could be for potentially years to come.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock “is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined” because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

The newspaper asked Birol, “How quickly can Gulf production recover?”

He responded:

“We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.”

Cherry-picking the most important parts of the interview:

Le Figaro asked: Who will suffer the most?

Birol responded: The global economy will suffer. Of course, European countries will struggle, as will Japan, Australia, and others. But developing countries will be the most affected due to high oil, gas, and food prices, and accelerating inflation. Their economic growth will be heavily impacted. I fear many developing countries will see their external debt rise significantly. That is why I am pessimistic—this crisis stems not from energy itself, but from geopolitics.

Le Figaro asked: Which countries are most exposed to shortages?

Birol responded: Import-dependent countries are most exposed: in Asia—South Korea, Japan, but especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. African countries will also be heavily affected, as developing nations have limited financial flexibility.

Le Figaro asked: How quickly can Gulf production recover?

Birol responded: We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.

Le Figaro asked: How significant is the drop in Gulf oil production?

Birol responded: Enormous. These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a “black April.” In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.

Birol has painted a bleak outlook for energy markets and the global economy for weeks in various interviews. 

However, emerging through the fog of war, the U.S. appears poised to be a net beneficiary of the chaos across the Gulf, with energy flows expected to remain disrupted for some time.

• Qatar Dethroned As ‘LNG King’ As U.S. Seizes Throne, Reshaping Future Of Gas

• Wyoming’s Helium Empire Ascends As Qatar Gas Goes Flat

A reminder to readers of JPMorgan’s note last week, mapping how the energy shock dominoes begin to fall. Read it here.