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Backroom Detente: A Curious Lack Of Iranian Strikes On UAE, While Others Get Hit

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Backroom Detente: A Curious Lack Of Iranian Strikes On UAE, While Others Get Hit

President Trump is vowing another consecutive night of even heavier US military strikes on Iran. Yesterday’s salvo involved at least 49 Tomahawk missile strikes, mainly happening against southern coastal areas off the Strait of Hormuz.

Amid Iran’s counter-attacks on Gulf nations and reportedly on American bases hosted in these Arab Gulf allied states, there’s been a curious lack of any new launches against the United Arab Emirates. 

Kuwait and Bahrain have been hit especially hard in this week’s new flare-up in cross-Gulf fighting, but again, the UAE has been spared – after previously coming under significant attacks during the opening month of Operation Epic Fury. Even faraway Jordan has been targeted in the new ‘retaliatatory’ attacks.

But Bloomberg on Thursday revealed the reason – Iran and the UAE have apparently reached an ‘understanding’ after some backroom dealing and diplomacy.

“Senior national security officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iran held a face-to-face meeting for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war against Tehran, according to people with knowledge of the situation,” Bloomberg reports.

“This week’s meeting marked a stark turnaround for both sides and comes amid their growing acknowledgment of the importance of calmer bilateral ties, the people said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters,” the fresh reporting continues.

In the UAE’s thinking, it has too much to risk if it continues to face Iran’s significant ballistic missile and drone arsenal, at a moment Washington has failed to clearly define an end game, but instead is climbing up the escalation ladder with a cornered and thus fierce Iran, which sees itself fighting for its very survival.

According to more from Bloomberg:

The UAE’s leaders want to keep their bold economic ambitions, including investing billions of dollars in increased oil production and in AI data centers, on track. The relationship is important for Tehran too, as the Gulf nation was among the Islamic Republic’s biggest trading partners before the war began and a key conduit for sanctioned Iranian oil.

Other leaders – both on the political and business fronts – are also likely asking themselves: when will it end? 

After all, each time the United States escalates, it’s these Gulf economies that are the first to feel the pain, as they literally find themselves on geographic the front line just a few hundred miles away from Iran’s borders. 

If it is indeed accurate that Gulf nations are approaching Iran to do individual separate deals, this is for now a diplomatic ‘win’ for Tehran. Separate deal-making, peeling others away from a united front and bloc, gives Iran some greater leverage and also flexibility in terms of potential post-war economic and political detente with regional states.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 13:20

Pardoned J6er Sues Government For $18 Million Over Alleged Abuse In Pretrial Detention

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Pardoned J6er Sues Government For $18 Million Over Alleged Abuse In Pretrial Detention

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A former Jan. 6 defendant who alleged torture and other abuse in custody is suing the federal government for almost $18 million.

The lawsuit by Ryan Samsel of Bristol, Pennsylvania, was filed late June 9 in federal court in Virginia, six months after he gave the government the legally required notice he was planning to litigate.

He is seeking $17,980,000 from the federal government for physical and mental injuries suffered from January 2021 through January 2025.

According to the newly filed legal complaint, Samsel was convicted in February 2024 of civil disorder-related offenses in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol breach and was incarcerated and awaiting sentencing when President Donald Trump pardoned him last year.

Specifically, he was convicted on felony charges of civil disorder; assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers; and assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers using a dangerous weapon, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) previously said. Samsel disputes the criminal allegations.

Samsel alleges he was subjected to physical and psychological abuse while in custody at facilities operated by the DOJ and the U.S. Bureau of Prisons in the District of Columbia and Virginia.

At those facilities, “he was repeatedly beaten, subject to other incidents of extraordinary physical and mental abuse and routinely denied medical care.”

In addition, he was “wrongfully detained for one day after receiving a full pardon, based on false allegations of an outstanding warrant made by the prosecutor.”

The DOJ also leaked false information to the media indicating that Samsel was a member of the Proud Boys, the complaint alleges.

The group, some of whose members have been accused of violence, describes itself as a patriotic drinking club.

The complaint says that during his incarceration, Samsel suffered orbital bone fractures and bilateral nasal bone fractures.

Among his other injuries were a dislocated jaw, multiple concussions, traumatic brain injuries, an acute kidney injury, and stab wounds to his legs, ankles, and arms.

He experienced severe post-traumatic stress disorder and cognitive and memory impairment “attributable to repeated head trauma and prolonged psychological torture.”

He also suffered “retaliatory solitary confinement with continuous lighting, sleep deprivation, public degradation in the restraint chair, and exposure to extreme violence and unsanitary conditions at the Facilities.”

Samsel’s attorney, Peter Haller, declined to comment on the freshly filed lawsuit.

In a prior court filing, Haller said, “Given the severity, duration, and documented multiplicity of the abuses suffered by Mr. Samsel, he is likely to be recognized as the most tortured individual by the Federal Government in recent American history.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the DOJ for comment but received no reply by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 13:00

FIFA World Cup Gets Underway Across North America

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FIFA World Cup Gets Underway Across North America

The largest, most inclusive, and most widespread World Cup tournament in FIFA’s history kicks off with two games in Mexico today.

For the next several weeks, nearly 50 nations will compete in more than 100 games in stadiums spread out across Mexico, the United States, and Canada—the first time FIFA has allowed three countries to co-host the event.

Here is a breakdown (via The Epoch Times) of what to know…

Tournament Format

The World Cup begins with a “Group Stage,” which runs from June 11 to June 27, and consists of 72 matches in 16 cities across North America.

Several months prior, all 48 qualifying teams were placed into 12 groups of four.

  • Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia.
  • Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland.
  • Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland.
  • Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey.
  • Group E: Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador.
  • Group F: The Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia.
  • Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand.
  • Group H: Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay.
  • Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, and Norway.
  • Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, and Jordan.
  • Group K: Portugal, Congo, Uzbekistan, and Colombia.
  • Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama.

The top two teams in each group, as well as eight third-place finishers with the best records or most points overall, will advance to a single-game elimination round.

Those surviving 32 teams will drop to 16, then the remaining eight teams will play in the quarter-finals scheduled for July 9, 10, and 11.

The two semi-final matches are set for July 14 and July 15. The two winners will play in the final on July 19, while the two losers will play for third place the day before.

Where Will World Cup Games Take Place?

The teams will be spread out to 16 locations across the three North American host nations.

Mexico

Mexico City kicks things off on June 11 when Mexico hosts South Africa at 3 p.m. ET.

The capital city will host two other group stage games, with Colombia playing Uzbekistan at 10 p.m. on June 17, and Mexico playing Czechia at 9 p.m. on June 24. Mexico City will also host multiple games during the first and second rounds of elimination before the quarter finals.

Guadalajara, Mexico, will also participate in opening day excitement, hosting South Korea’s match against Czechia at 10 p.m.

This city will get a chance to host its home team when Mexico plays South Korea at 9 p.m. on June 18. It will also showcase a 10 p.m. match between Colombia and Congo on June 23, and an 8 p.m. game between Spain and Uruguay on June 26.

No games beyond the group stage will be played here, and safety concerns due to persisting cartel violence hover over the festivities.

Monterrey is the third location south of the border to host the World Cup. It will host Tunisia for two games: the first is against Sweden at 10 p.m. on June 14, and the second is against Japan at midnight on June 21. It’ll then host South Korea against South Africa at 9 p.m. on June 24, and then multiple games in the round of 32 and round of 16.

United States

Los Angeles gets the honor of being the World Cup’s first stop in the United States, with Team USA facing off against Paraguay at 9 p.m. on June 12.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to lead a delegation to the game that includes Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy and Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin. The State Department said that Rubio would meet with Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña “to advance the U.S.-Paraguay strategic partnership spanning regional security, trade and investment, and emerging technology.”

Los Angeles is also set to host Iran’s national team on June 15, just as the armed conflict between its Islamic regime and the United States appears to be ramping back up.

World Cup matches will take place in 10 other cities and regions across the United States, including Atlanta, Miami, the San Francisco Bay Area, New York/New Jersey, Houston, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle, Boston, and Philadelphia.

The defending champions, Argentina, and its iconic superstar Lionel Messi, will make their debut in Kansas City against Algeria at 9 p.m. on June 16.

World Cup quarter-finals will be held in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, and Kansas City, while the semi-finals will be played in Dallas and Atlanta.

The World Cup final will be played at Met Life Stadium in New Jersey, the home of the New York Giants and the New York Jets. The play-off for third place will take place in Miami.

Canada

North of the border, Toronto and Vancouver will also host some games. Team Canada will play the first game in Toronto against Bosnia and Herzegovina at 3 p.m. on June 12, and then Australia will kick things off in Vancouver against Turkey at midnight on June 14.

Both cities will also host games during the first two elimination rounds.

Millions Coming From Around the World

An estimated 6.5 million people are expected to attend the World Cup games, with 40 percent of the fan base coming from outside the host countries.

Traveling fan groups were expected to come from World Cup staples like Brazil, Argentina, England, and Germany. Scotland’s 10,000-strong “Tartan Army” is also expected to make a comeback as their team qualifies for the first time since 1998.

Social media has already been filled with posts made by visiting Europeans finding new appreciation for different aspects of America in the lead-up to the games.

But the expected influx of visitors has triggered a need to increase the level of security as people gather to cheer on their team and celebrate the tournament.

FBI Director Kash Patel promised that his agency, alongside the Department of Homeland Security and law enforcement, will provide the “full range of counterterrorism expertise” to “ensure the safety of players, fans, and all Americans and visitors during the tournament.”

Canada announced it would spend up to $145 million in federal funding on increased security in Toronto and Vancouver for the World Cup.

Meanwhile in Mexico, more than 100,000 police officers, National Guardsmen, soldiers, and marines were expected to be deployed to its three host cities. Guadalajara alone has received more than 15,000 security officers after the city became the setting of deadly cartel activity in February with the killing of the head of a major cartel.

Who Will Win?

Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, published a cheat sheet for clients that used a forecasting model built around Elo ratings – the ranking system originally developed for chess – to handicap the tournament. His top pick diverges from the latest Polymarket odds, with Hatzius placing Spain at the top of the list as the most likely World Cup winner.

“The model says that Spain has a 26% probability of winning the trophy, followed by France at 19%, Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%,” Hatzius said.

He noted, “Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition. Argentina is penalised by the “winner’s slump”, i.e. the statistical underperformance of reigning champions in the following World Cup; France suffers from likely facing top-ranked Spain in the semifinals; and England underperforms its Elo rating given historical tournament disappointment, geographical headwinds (likely facing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City), and a slightly unlucky draw.” 

Hatzius built a regression model to estimate how many goals each team is likely to score against another, using nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978. The model shows a steep decline in goal scoring, with much of it occurring after World War II.

Elo measures national team strength based on results and opponent quality, updating as teams win, lose, or draw. By this metric, Hatzius and his team place Spain No. 1, ahead of Argentina and France, which differs slightly from FIFA’s official men’s rankings.

Most Likely Predicted Group Stage Results

Road To Winner

Unlike our previous notes on Goldman’s World Cup probabilities in 2022, 2018, and 2014, the rise of Polymarket has changed the betting game, bringing prediction markets directly into the sports-betting mainstream.

The latest Polymarket odds show Spain at 17%, France at 16%, and England at 11%…

…putting market pricing in line with Goldman’s model, which ranks Spain as the winner.

Professional subscribers can read the full World Cup note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 12:40

ActBlue CEO Pleads The Fifth During House Panel Hearing

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ActBlue CEO Pleads The Fifth During House Panel Hearing

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones invoked the Fifth Amendment on Wednesday before the House Administration Committee, surrounding reports that she may have misled Congress about how the platform vets foreign donations.

The U.S. Capitol building on June 9, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Wallace-Jones had originally agreed to testify voluntarily before Congress concerning ActBlue’s vetting process for foreign contributions to domestic candidates. But her attorneys requested a congressional subpoena on Monday, ahead of her June 10 testimony, according to committee lawmakers.

The House asked Wallace-Jones to testify after a recent New York Times report included memos from Covington & Burling, a law firm that worked for ActBlue, warning that she may have misled Congress about the process for screening overseas donations.

ActBlue is the dominant Democratic fundraising platform. In 2025 alone, the platform reported raising almost $1.8 billion from 52 million contributions, and Q4 that year marked the single-largest off-cycle quarter in ActBlue history.

Under federal election law, foreign nationals or those who are not permanent residents are forbidden to donate directly to federal candidates or political action committees.

Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) said only Americans should decide their elections during the hearing titled, “Preventing Fraudulent Donations: Transparency, Verification, and Accountability.”

“Ms. Wallace-Jones is here today because there’s a significant concern that ActBlue may have allowed foreign donations on their platform, lied to Congress, and withheld responsive documents from a congressional subpoena,” Steil said. “All three of those actions are illegal.”

Steil said Wallace-Jones provided a 2023 letter to Congress stating that ActBlue prevents foreign donations by requiring donors with a foreign address to provide U.S. passport information. If a contribution appears to be from a foreign address, ActBlue contacts the donor to request U.S. passport information. The platform would then refund the contribution if ActBlue was unable to contact the donor.

“The New York Times reported that ActBlue’s outside counsel determined those three steps are not always followed,” Steil said.

Surrounded by attorneys, Wallace-Jones did not answer any questions posed during the hearing, citing the “attorney-client privilege and my Fifth Amendment rights under the Constitution.”

Wallace-Jones wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post that appeared on the day of her hearing, saying she would invoke her Fifth Amendment “rights against self-incrimination.”

“This is a proceeding designed to build an illegitimate criminal case against us. I cannot and will not let my words be misused in that way,” she opined.

Democrats on the committee called the hearing political theater and questioned why the Republican fundraising platform, WinRed, wasn’t receiving equal scrutiny from Republicans.

“We’re here because Republicans want to talk about ActBlue, not because they’re serious about strengthening campaign finance laws or actually strengthening the abuse of fraud in this country,” said Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Administrative Committee ranking member Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) said Republicans are ignoring alleged problems with WinRed. He accused the platform of victimizing elderly Americans.

Morelle also requested a subpoena for Republican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who, as Texas attorney general, sued ActBlue in state court on April 20. The lawsuit alleged that the platform misleads consumers by illegally accepting fraudulent foreign donations for federal and state candidates.

ActBlue filed a countersuit on May 1 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, seeking to block Paxton’s lawsuit. Attorneys for the platform asked a federal judge to declare Paxton’s ongoing ActBlue investigation and lawsuit unconstitutional, alleging violations of the First and Fourteenth Amendments.

ActBlue accused Paxton of escalating his investigation after donations for James Talarico, his Democratic opponent in the Texas Senate race, surged.

Paxton responded on the day the suit was filed, saying in an X post that ActBlue was “trying to take [him] down.”

U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) speaks at a hearing with the House Administration subcommittee on Elections in Washington on June 24, 2021. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 10:20

Iran Is ‘Finished’: Trump Vows ‘Bigger, More Powerful’ Bombing Tonight After Tehran Declared Ceasefire ‘Meaningless’

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Iran Is ‘Finished’: Trump Vows ‘Bigger, More Powerful’ Bombing Tonight After Tehran Declared Ceasefire ‘Meaningless’

Summary

  • Trump follows with mention of “bigger, more powerful” bombing of Iran tonight. He pledged “they’re finished”.
  • Trump announces intent to hit the Iranians “VERY HARD TONIGHT”.
  • Iran Foreign Ministry: US attacks “rendered the ceasefire dated April 8, 2026 effectively meaningless”
  • Third commercial vessel disabled by American forces this week in regional waters. Aircraft fires missiles on engine room.
  • Still claims of ongoing indirect talks: Qatar negotiators depart Tehran after talks on US, Iran: diplomat to AFP

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump: ‘Bigger, More Powerful’ Bombing Tonight

President Trump follows on the heels of vowing to hit Iran “very hard tonight” with some further words revealing his thinking in a morning Fox News interview. Trump has promised a “bigger, more powerful” bombing of Iran. “They have no defense,” he said, and pledged “they’re finished”. But be again lambasted the media for not saying that they are actually “finished”.

He explained that if needed, US troops can be used to “take over the whole place” – but still expressed he doesn’t desire to put US American forces on the ground. 

Separately, CNN has cited US admin officials who suggest that a move to capture Kharg Island is an “endgame” strategy option. So this suggests its low on the White House agenda, after Trump earlier hinted that this could be done.

Trump: Will Be Hitting Iran Very Hard Tonight

After already issuing an ultimatum the evening prior, President Trump has just announced his intent to launch a second consecutive night of direct missile attacks on Iran. He’s vowing to hit the Iranians “VERY HARD TONIGHT”.

He also just renewed prior threats to ‘take’ Kharg Island and ‘other oil infrastructure points’ in the not too distant future.

The Thursday morning Truth Social post previewing the next escalation in this war resulted in a spike in oil prices:

US Attack Renders Ceasefire ‘Meaningless’

Overnight, there did not appear to be any new major exchanges of fire after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan – following the US bombing of some dozens of targets in Iran earlier, in the wake of the downing of a US Apache attack helicopter in the Hormuz area earlier this week.

But since then, Iran has announced it is closing the Strait of Hormuz – or rather seeking to tighten its grip with the likelihood of more aggressive attacks on international and ‘unauthorized’ tankers to come. Iran had also struck US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan – according to its statements as well as emerging open source material.

The most important new statement to come out of Tehran is the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s charge that the US attacks “rendered the ceasefire dated April 8, 2026 effectively meaningless” and that the US will be held responsible for the “consequences”. The formal statement also urged regional Arab stated to not allow American forces to use their territories.

Day 104: Return to Regional Airspace Closures

It is day 104 of the enduring conflict, with active war having newly erupted again, and so we are seeing airspace closures over the region once again, with Kuwait confirming flight diversions amid a temporary airspace closure.

Aerial alerts have also been issued for Jordan. 

A slew of new videos have emerged showing missile intercepts, with US Patriot batteries active, over areas from Kuwait to Bahrain to Jordan – however, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) interestingly continues to be sparred from Iran’s wrath and retaliation.

Scope of US Attack & Iran’s Military Response

As for the latest of what’s confirmed in the wake of the prior day’s major US attacks on Iran, which involved over 40 Tomahawk missiles fired, Al Jazeera has the following summary and review of the situation:

  • US strikes on Iran: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that Washington was launching strikes on “key facilities” in Iran, saying the attacks were part of attempts to secure a permanent ceasefire. Speaking outside CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, Hegseth said President Donald Trump had ordered Iran to be hit “hard” and warned the strikes could continue for a second consecutive night if necessary.
  • Strait of Hormuz closed: In response to the latest attacks, Iran’s top military command announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. Officials warned all vessels to stay away from the strategic waterway, saying any ships attempting to pass through could come under attack.
  • Water services restored: Authorities in Iran’s Hormozgan province said water supplies had been restored to affected communities in Sirik county less than 12 hours after US strikes damaged infrastructure. Iranian media reported that two concrete water storage reservoirs were hit in the attacks. A New York Times analysis suggested the tanks may have been struck with precision-guided munitions, raising concerns as international humanitarian law considers civilian water infrastructure a protected site.
  • Tehran reacts to renewed fighting: Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall said many Iranians had been expecting another US attack despite renewed talk of negotiations. “They have been waiting and expecting a surprise American attack,” Vall said, adding that Tehran retaliated by striking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, according to military commanders. The latest exchanges mark another night of direct confrontation after both sides had suggested the previous round of attacks had come to an end.

Below: Iran releases video showing this its latest missile launches targeting US bases in the Middle East:

‘Tomorrow Night’ Warning

President Trump is again trying his hand at forcing Iran to negotiate and capitulate through bombing, most recently warning in a statement to Fox News that if Iran does not accept a US deal, it would come under American fire power once again “tomorrow night” — so the clock is ticking Thursday, apparently. 

While Trump claimed the Iranians had contacted Washington, urging a halt to the attacks, Tehran leadership has rejected that this actually happened. The whole situation is somewhat of a return to the same stalemated reality of the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury.

Third Tanker this Week Disabled by US Forces

In the Gulf of Oman, US forces have reportedly disabled another oil tanker charged with ‘violating the blockade’ put into place by the US Navy. This marks the third commercial vessel disabled by American forces this week. According to a fresh CENTCOM description of the action:

U.S. forces disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman at 11:20 p.m. ET on June 10 after the vessel violated the blockade against Iran by attempting to transport Iranian oil, marking the third commercial ship disabled by American forces this week.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) acted against Guinea-Bissau flagged M/T Jalveer as it attempted to transport oil from Iran through the Gulf of Oman. A U.S. aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the ship’s engine room after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from U.S. forces.

Earlier this week, U.S. aircraft disabled Palau-flagged vessels M/T Marivex and M/T Settebello on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Marivex violated the blockade by attempting to sail to an Iranian port and Settebello attempted to transport Iranian oil.

In total: U.S. forces have disabled 9 non-compliant vessels since initiating the blockade of Iran’s ports on April 13.

Claims of Ongoing Indirect Talks

Bloomberg reports early Thursday:

Qatar negotiators depart Tehran after talks on US, Iran: diplomat to AFP

Some regional media, such as Al Arabiya, are reporting that negotiations between Tehran and Washington are ongoing (likely only indirectly, if at all) – though there hasn’t been official confirmation of this from the Islamic Republic side at all. Instead, they are calling even the extended ceasefire itself ‘meaningless’.

According to the latest communication, Iran’s Defense Ministry says the country will not back down in the face of threats or pressure, with the national armed forces remaining on high alert, ready to inflict retaliation and punishment.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 10:05

Bessent Pulls Trigger On Using Frozen Funds To Reimburse Gulf Allies: ‘Iran Will Pay’

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Bessent Pulls Trigger On Using Frozen Funds To Reimburse Gulf Allies: ‘Iran Will Pay’

US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on X Thursday morning that Washington is moving forward on a plan to compensate America’s Gulf regional allies for damage sustained during Iranian counterattacks on their energy and civic infrastructure.

He made clear that any damage to Gulf allies would be paid for with frozen Iranian funds, which Tehran leadership has long blasted as blatant theft.

According to Bessent’s latest announcement: “The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing.” The Treasury Secretary listed out the following new policy and plan:

  • Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.
  • Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.
  • Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.

via Reuters

Interestingly, there is implicit here a possible acknowledgement that US forces won’t be able to immediately be able to stop Iran from enacting its toll collection protocol, which it has hinted is being done in coordination – or at least with an ‘understanding’ – from Oman, which itself has come under pressure from the Trump administration of late.

Over eighty oil, gas, and vital infrastructure facilities across the Gulf have been hit – with most of the attacks having occurred in March and April – with one recent report estimating up to $58 billion in damage. Iran has sought to justify these attacks as ‘retaliation’ for these Gulf countries hosting American bases during the US unprovoked assault on the Islamic Republic.

An unnamed US official had previously told ABC’s Senior White House correspondent Selina Wang last weekend: “Treasury will utilize all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran.”

“The Secretary has also directed his team to assess conditions amongst our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict,” the source had added.

Also as part of that earlier reporting, it was revealed:

The Iranian assets could include frozen assets and ships the U.S. has seized. The administration is reaching out to Gulf allies right now and asking for their evaluation.

This is only likely to further derail efforts to get Tehran and Washington back to the negotiating table. Already the US has balked at Iran’s own insistent it be given reparations for damage done.

Iran is meanwhile still demanding that its billions in funds long frozen by Washington be given back as part of a deal. The Trump administration has so far rejected this, at least in terms of its public-facing position.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 10:00

War And Piece

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War And Piece

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Sorry, Bank of Canada (rates held at 2.25%), Chinese CPI and PPI (1.2% and 3.9% y-o-y headline) US CPI (0.5% m-o-m and 4.2% y-o-y headline, 0.2% and 2.9% core), and the ECB today: you all matter but are just pieces of the global picture one now needs to finish: the war vs. Iran.

Changing the recent pattern, President Trump said he would strike Iran again today and did. At time of writing, nearly 50 Tomahawk missiles had been fired alongside airstrikes against radar and drone installations, with a disputed report that a petrochemicals plant was also hit. Even by the standards of the ‘peacefire’ –which, as I’d argued yesterday morning, Iran’s leadership then agreed no longer suits them– this is a major escalation.

However, the US is still holding back compared to what it can do militarily, and Israel is sitting on its hands. Notably, Trump told Fox News he has been in direct contact with senior Iranian leadership, a new development, and they had asked him to stop bombing: to which he claims he told them to sign the deal on the table, or on Thursday evening he will “Bomb the s**t out of them.” In other words, hits against infrastructure, energy, and nuclear sites, can’t be ruled out.

The immediate Iranian response has been to declare Hormuz entirely closed to all ships. However, despite the fact that Iran was prepared for these US strikes there have, as yet, been no successful counterstrikes against US bases in the Middle East or against GCC energy and water infrastructure. Will this happen with a lag? If not is Iran unable to do so, or just unwilling to? Equally, will Iran act with the Houthis to close the Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea, making this energy crisis far worse?

These are staggeringly important geopolitical questions on which global markets, and the BoC and Chinese and US inflation, will ultimately pivot.

So far, the market reaction has been relatively mild – oil only up around $2. Perhaps part of that is down to another piece of the Iran puzzle that has befuddled energy experts and visitors from outside the field – what is happening in terms of oil flows from Hormuz.

Trump had yesterday announced the US is taking “millions of barrels of oil” from Iran, causing the usual consternation. A breakdown of what he meant comes from shipping maven @mercoglianos, who argues the US secretly resumed Project Freedom to escort ships through Hormuz using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort ships through the southern Strait near Oman. Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Gulf, conducting ship-to-ship transfers to smaller tankers near Oman, then returning to pick up more oil. In that regard, oil can flow even as the number of ships stuck in the Gulf appears unchanged. War risk insurance, potentially provided by the US Development Finance Corporation, could be covering these few ships making the transits. Yet Iran has been targeting them and the US responding with airstrikes: the Apache helicopter just shot down, triggering a new US attack, was likely part of this operation.

Of course, what may have been happening invisibly, despite 24/7 market coverage, can’t compensate for normal Gulf flows, which is why the plunge in the US and Japan’s SPR and a huge drop in China’s oil imports —none of which are sustainable— are doing the heavy lifting to keep oil below $100. That dynamic always pointed to escalation: will it be military now, via the US; with others later as more energy panic kicks in; or via more backchannel diplomacy from China? 

Regardless, it’s hard to make economic or central bank forecasts without one for the Iran War, as the FT says airlines are drawing up cuts for an ‘ugly’ winter’ due to stubbornly high jet fuel prices; Reuters notes global container shipping rates are soaring and “Fuel analysts and maritime experts warn it could take around a year for bunker fuel supplies to return to normal even if Trump is able to quickly clinch an Iran deal”; and the UK Telegraph argues farmers may have to stop planting crops without government support.

But geopolitics and geoeconomics are to the fore everywhere and it’s not only energy and petrochemicals being squeezed.

In the Middle East, Turkey’s President Erdogan claimed Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria threaten it and “its aggression must be stopped”, after talking about the liberation of Jerusalem. Israel’s diplomatic response was equally undiplomatic; Saudi Arabia resumed imports from Lebanon after a five-year hiatus; and a Saudi-Turkey rail link may be completed within three years.

In the Americas, Trump suggested he may not renew the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada; and US Secretary of War Hegseth warned Cuba that any arms procurement by it seen as threatening the US could invite a confrontation – we are talking about 1956 at the moment, so why not 1962 too?

In Europe, five capitals are reportedly calling to freeze voting rights for new EU members, radically changing the structure of the Union; Politico reports ‘French far-right firebrand’ Zemmour is embracing MAGA to try to pay political dividends at home ahead of the 2027 presidential election; and the South China Morning Post asks ‘As de-dollarisation trends persist, can the yuan take the euro’s place?’, meaning taking the #2 spot in global settlements from the single currency.

In Australia, the political scene continues to churn with talk of a ‘non-compete’ clause and voting preference deal between the centre-right Liberals and populist right One Nation that has suddenly soared in the polls.

In Asia, Taiwan fired US mobile missile launchers into the waters facing China for the first time as “a message of resolve”, according to the Wall Street Journal; the US has asked China to resume rare earth exports to Japan, which have been cut off, as Tokyo pivots to US tungsten scrap exports to fill that gap, and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s curbs on cobalt exports have sparked shortages for everyone, including China; Japan’s parliament passed a revised economic security law to support overseas projects (as Bloomberg asks ‘Who’s Afraid of ‘Japanese Neo-Militarism’? Nobody’ – that’s arguably not true; and BOJ Governor Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to miss the June policy meeting. Get well soon and perhaps be can follow the Iran news from there.

Indeed, now back to whatever piece of the war you happen to be focusing on.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 09:40

Iran Threatens Elon Musk’s Gulf-Area Starlink Ground Stations In Suspicious Timing Ahead Of SpaceX IPO

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Iran Threatens Elon Musk’s Gulf-Area Starlink Ground Stations In Suspicious Timing Ahead Of SpaceX IPO

Summary:

  • Iran Threatens Musk’s Starlink Ground Bases In Gulf Area Ahead Of IPO  

  • Massive SpaceX IPO Demand Coming From Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

IranIntlbrk is the X handle for Iran International’s breaking-news account and cites Tehran-aligned Fars News Agency, stating that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has placed the economic interests of Elon Musk in West Asia, including Arab countries and Israel, under consideration on a new target list.

IranIntlbrk continued:

1. Fars News Agency reported that this action is under consideration following claims by the IRGC-affiliated outlet that the U.S. and Israeli militaries’ use of infrastructure managed by Elon Musk, including Starlink, has been proven.

2. A media outlet affiliated with the IRGC wrote that Starlink’s ground stations in Israel, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, alongside SpaceX shareholders including the infrastructure of the two companies “Al-Fazabi” and “Exchange,” are among the new targets of the Islamic Republic.

The IRGC’s threat against Musk’s Starlink ground stations (Starlink Gateways) across the region should come as no surprise. IRGC forces have already demonstrated a willingness to strike Gulf data centers, including the reported Shahed drone attacks on two AWS data centers in the UAE.

The timing of the IRGC’s threat against Musk is notable. It comes one day ahead of the SpaceX IPO, suggesting Tehran is trying to remain relevant in the news cycle with another round of big-bad warnings aimed at U.S. tech giants, Gulf allies, and critical communications infrastructure.

Starlink Service Map

On Wednesday, we reported that massive demand for the SpaceX IPO was coming from Gulf sovereign wealth funds.

Also today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X, “The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing. Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian accounts.”

Massive SpaceX IPO Demand Coming From Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds 

One week ago, SpaceX kicked off its institutional roadshow, headlined by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who hosted a nationwide “live interactive discussion” with private wealth clients.

The latest signal of investor demand comes from the Gulf, where massive sovereign wealth funds are reportedly seeking allocations in the IPO ahead of its expected Friday debut, according to Bloomberg News.

The report says Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Kuwait Investment Authority have each placed orders for the IPO worth $1 billion to $5 billion, while the Qatar Investment Authority is also expected to make a significant commitment.

The report continued:

Entities based in the region are already prominent shareholders in Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI firm, and many are sitting on large paper gains based on the billionaire’s targeted valuation of $1.8 trillion, the people said. It wasn’t immediately clear how much of the planned outlay is intended to prevent dilution of existing stakes after SpaceX’s listing.

The interest from the Gulf is part of a broader rush into the deal from global institutional investors, whose orders have exceeded the number of shares on offer. Some have bid for $10 billion or more of stock, Bloomberg News has reported, though the eventual allocations might be smaller.

In a separate report, Reuters says the IPO is three-and-a-half to four times oversubscribed, highlighting massive institutional demand for what is shaping up to be the largest listing on record and a defining moment for the space economy.

Elon Musk has joined several Zoom meetings with potential investors, while SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen were expected to meet with roughly 300 institutional investors at a Morgan Stanley lunch in Manhattan.

Goldman Sachs was selected as the lead bank for the IPO, alongside Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup are also among the 23 banks working on the deal, offering a staggering $75 billion by selling about 555.6 million shares. The planned IPO price is about $135 per share.

Why SpaceX’s IPO Is drawing record investor demand…

We offered readers a complete deep dive into the mechanics of the SpaceX offering and how to trade the world’s biggest IPO (read the report). SpaceX’s underwriters have shut off investor access to the offering in China and Hong Kong, primarily due to regulatory and compliance concerns.

However, there is a concerted effort by unhinged leftist lawmakers (such as Elizabeth Warren) and left-wing pension funds to delay or deny the SpaceX IPO, mainly for political brownie points. They appear to view the sudden new wealth generated for Elon Musk (and his employees and investors) as absolutely horrifying…

… given that Musk is pro-humanity and seeks to liberate the world’s minds from toxic progressive causes.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 09:26

ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023

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ECB Preview: First Rate Hike Since 2023

Markets expect the ECB to hike by 25bps, the first rate hike since 2023, but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. Goldman does not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush

SUMMARY (courtesy of Newsquawk)

  • The ECB is expected to hike by 25bps, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%. Justified by the assessment that the ECB is past the March baseline and is closer to the adverse scenario.
  • Alongside this, inflation forecasts will likely be upgraded and growth downgraded across 2026. The cut off date will have influence on the 2026 inflation view, with a later date likely to see less hawkish projections. For growth, any signs of or commentary around a technical recession being possible.
  • Guidance from the statement will be non-commital with the ECB to perhaps stress a vigilant approach to policymaking, which could be interpreted as a hawkish-nod. Lagarde may be somewhat more explicit vs the statement, in an attempt to stop inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.

OVERVIEW: Recent developments place the ECB somewhere between the baseline and adverse scenarios outlined in March. An assessment that chimes with expectations for a 25bps hike and supports keeping options open for the remainder of the year. However, the balancing act between growth and inflation means that pre-committing to further tightening is not necessary at this point. Instead the ECB, whether via the statement and/or President Lagarde, will likely emphasize that it will be vigilant, or words to that effect, in safeguarding against price pressures in the EZ while acknowledging the deteriorating growth environment.

EUR/USD and the German 10yr yield approach the meeting around 1.1550 and 3.05% respectively. The market basecase, of a 25bps hike, elevated inflation forecasts and downgraded growth forecasts alongside no firm commitment to further tightening, would likely see a modest hawkish reaction in the above. If the ECB is more direct and places less emphasis on growth and more on inflation, alongside opening the door more explicitly to further tightening, ING looks for EUR/USD and the 10yr yield to rise to 1.1650 and 3.10%; levels we last traded at on the 2nd of June and 21st of May respectively. A more hawkish outcome, particularly a statement/press conference that signals the start of a tightening cycle, could see 1.1700 and 3.15%.

HAWKISH RISK: The projections could show a bigger core inflation overshoot in 2027, with greater concern around the inflation outlook in the monetary policy statement and a clearer signal that additional tightening is coming. For example, the Council could note in the statement that it judges it appropriate to “begin” tightening monetary policy (hinting at a process rather than a one-time adjustment) and Lagarde could open up July by emphasizing that the Council will have important data on second-round effects by then (provided by its corporate telephone, wage and inflation expectations surveys).  

DOVISH RISK: The Council could return to a two-sided assessment of the risks around inflation, show an inflation undershoot in 2028 (more similar to the March adverse scenario) and emphasize patience in the press conference (e.g., by stressing that it will receive a lot more data by the September meeting). 

PREVIOUS MEETING: In April, the ECB held the Deposit Rate at 2.00% as expected. The statement emphasized that the US is well positioned to navigate the current period of uncertainty, and as such they were not pre-committing to a particular rate path, sticking to a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. No new forecasts in April, but the commentary emphasised that upside inflation risks had “intensified”, while longer-term expectations remained “well anchored”. On the growth side, downside risk had “intensified”. The statement sparked a mild dovish reaction, as outside calls for a more hawkish shift were unwound. The subsequent press conference saw President Lagarde unveil that the ECB debated a rate hike, but the decision to hold rates was unanimous. A press conference that sparked a hawkish reaction in European assets. The hawkish skew was added to by subsequent sources, suggesting that a June hike was seen as very likely, Reuters reported.

PRICES: Mayʼs inflation data had a headline rate of 3.2%, ticking up from the 3.0% in April. Pertinently, the ECBʼs HICP Y/Y forecast for 2026 is 2.6% in the baseline, 3.5% in the adverse and 4.4% in the severe scenario. As such, the May print took the bloc further away from the baseline and towards the adverse projection, a point that factors firmly in favour of tightening monetary policy; though the gap to the severe scenario means a 50bps move or pre-committing to tightening post-June are not warranted yet. Within the May series, the internals saw further upside in the energy component and pertinently a jump in Services, to 3.5% from 3.0%. Continuing with May, the Final S&P PMIs showed price pressures intensifying “to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months.”. A view that, if shared among policy setters, could see some in favour of more explicit guidance than the statement and/or Lagarde are likely to give. From the ECB itself, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey for April (released in June) vs March, showed one- and five-year consumer expectations remain the same at 4.0% and 2.4% respectively. While the three-year view moderated to 2.9% (prev. 3.0%). Figures that are all above the 2% long-term target, however, the unchanged view shows that expectations were not unanchored in April and, while somewhat dated, provides policymakers with further scope to take an “insurance” hike, given the clear price pressures, but not commit to anything further at this stage.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the above points to an upgrade of at the very least the baseline view, but likely also one or possibly both of the alternative scenarios. Specifically, Nordea expects the 2026 baseline to lift to 3.0% (prev. 2.6%). One point of nuance in the forecasts, particularly for prices, is the cutoff date. In March, the ECB used an exceptionally late cut-off date and a very small date range for the assessment. The above is based on that being repeated and an early June cut-off being used. If not, then the technical assumptions around energy will be significantly higher and as such the near-term inflation view would be more hawkish vs a later cut-off.

ECONOMY: Q1 GDP for the EZ stood at -0.2% Q/Q, after being subject to a marked downward revision in the 3rd estimate from 0.15%. However, some of this stems from a -12.1% print from Ireland, hit by the unwind of tariff and pharmaceutical related activity in the comparison. A more timely indication courtesy of the S&P PMI for May points to another -0.2% Q/Q print in Q2, bar any significant shift in June; if realised in the hard data, that would see the EZ enter a technical recession. Furthermore, the PMI showed a pick up in labour market losses. Unemployment data from member nations remains weak, with the EZ figure in April ticking up to 6.3% (prev. 6.2%). The most timely data available at the time of writing is the German GfK for June, which was bleak at -29.8 though it did improve slightly from -33.3 despite NIM outlining that the “negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East remains largely unchanged…”.

For the new macroeconomic projections, the data is indicative of a downgrade. In March, the 2026 baseline, adverse and severe scenarios were 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Nordea looks for the 2026 baseline to be downgraded to 0.7%. Taking the ECB closer but not to the adverse scenario from March, and as such chimes with the narrative for an insurance hike and while it does not aid the argument for further 2026 tightening, it does not shut the door to a post-June move.

COMMENTARY: Overall, commentary chimes with consensus for a 25bps hike in June, given recent economic developments, but that it is too soon to commit to any tightening thereafter. Recently, Schnabel (26th May) outlined that prices are between the baseline and the adverse scenario, adding that “in terms of persistence, we have actually moved beyond the adverse scenario, which assumed a rapid normalisation of oil prices.”. Prior to that, on the 26th of May, Schnabel said that they should hike in June irrespective of the peace proposal. Simkus (29th May) described a near term move as an insurance hike, but also downplayed the impact of even 50bps of tightening over 2026, noting that the timing for a second move is less clear. In terms of forward guidance, Lane (26th May) remarked that they will not be pre-commiting to a particular path after June.

TRADES: Goldman likes to receive July/September meeting switch at ~18bps (72% chance). The bank thinks that you can have both a (near term) hawkish path to no hike in September, as well as a dovish path. The (near term) hawkish path would involve no near-term resolution on Iran, with the SOH continuing to be closed by the time of the July meeting, leading to a second ECB hike in July. Subsequently, you could then either have a resolution between July and September, or signs of further economic weakness and limited wage pass through, meaning that, by the time of the September meeting, and with policy rates at the upper end of neutral, the ECB decides to skip a rate hike at the September meeting. The dovish path is one of a near term resolution and a glut of oil from ships stuck in SOH hitting the market, pushing down energy prices and inflation and inflation expectations. In this scenario, it is very feasible, that the ECB will not hike rates again after the June meeting. 

THOUGHTS FROM GOLDMAN’S TRADING DESK:

Jari Stehn (Head of European Economics): We expect the ECB to hike by 25bp but do not look for explicit guidance on the path ahead, with the Council likely pledging in the statement to set monetary policy in a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting fashion. Lagarde is likely to highlight that tightening is appropriate, for example, by repeating that the energy shock requires “some measured adjustment” in the policy stance. We do not expect her to provide any specific guidance on next steps but look for her to reiterate that the Council wants to see more data and does not need to rush. 

George Cole (Head of European Rates Strategy): Our bias is for terminal rate pricing lower and flatter curve. Key for today’s meeting will be the signal on July, currently priced not far off 50/50. If the message is that July is more of a tail outcome then market can shift towards pricing one and done, particularly given leak lower in energy prices on view that SoH is more impaired than fully shut with increasingly more oil transiting (though obviously a lot of headline risks with waR). Ultimately September is a long way off with ample time for resolution and/or the lower growth impacts of the war to come through. Specifically we will be watching: 

  1. Core inflation forecasts and whether they show persistence – GS econ are 2.5% both for 26/27; would be dovish if lower/inverts 
  2. Whether Lagarde emphasizes that tomorrow’s move buys time to watch the data and that currently little signs of 2nd round effects in the labour market 

Jan Scheffel (Global Co-Head of Short Term Macro Trading): Given the high level of uncertainty we expect the ECB to keep full optionality on the future policy rate path, neither pre-committing or ruling out a move at the July meeting. We would expect Lagarde to use communication along the line of: “In assessing the timing and extend of further policy adjustments, the governing council will take a data-dependant, meeting by meeting, approach. We are not pre-committed to any policy path.” 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 07:45

US Attack Renders Ceasefire ‘Meaningless’, Iran Says, As US Forces Disable Third Tanker This Week

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US Attack Renders Ceasefire ‘Meaningless’, Iran Says, As US Forces Disable Third Tanker This Week

Overnight, there did not appear to be any new major exchanges of fire after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan – following the US bombing of some dozens of targets in Iran earlier, in the wake of the downing of a US Apache attack helicopter in the Hormuz area earlier this week.

But since then, Iran has announced it is closing the Strait of Hormuz – or rather seeking to tighten its grip with the likelihood of more aggressive attacks on international and ‘unauthorized’ tankers to come. Iran had also struck US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan – according to its statements as well as emerging open source material.

The most important new statement to come out of Tehran is the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s charge that the US attacks “rendered the ceasefire dated April 8, 2026 effectively meaningless” and that the US will be held responsible for the “consequences”. The formal statement also urged regional Arab stated to not allow American forces to use their territories.

It is day 104 of the enduring conflict, with active war having newly erupted again, and so we are seeing airspace closures over the region once again, with Kuwait confirming flight diversions amid a temporary airspace closure.

Aerial alerts have also been issued for Jordan. 

A slew of new videos have emerged showing missile intercepts, with US Patriot batteries active, over areas from Kuwait to Bahrain to Jordan – however, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) interestingly continues to be sparred from Iran’s wrath and retaliation.

As for the latest of what’s confirmed in the wake of the prior day’s major US attacks on Iran, which involved over 40 Tomahawk missiles fired, Al Jazeera has the following summary and review of the situation:

  • US strikes on Iran: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that Washington was launching strikes on “key facilities” in Iran, saying the attacks were part of attempts to secure a permanent ceasefire. Speaking outside CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, Hegseth said President Donald Trump had ordered Iran to be hit “hard” and warned the strikes could continue for a second consecutive night if necessary.
  • Strait of Hormuz closed: In response to the latest attacks, Iran’s top military command announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. Officials warned all vessels to stay away from the strategic waterway, saying any ships attempting to pass through could come under attack.
  • Water services restored: Authorities in Iran’s Hormozgan province said water supplies had been restored to affected communities in Sirik county less than 12 hours after US strikes damaged infrastructure. Iranian media reported that two concrete water storage reservoirs were hit in the attacks. A New York Times analysis suggested the tanks may have been struck with precision-guided munitions, raising concerns as international humanitarian law considers civilian water infrastructure a protected site.
  • Tehran reacts to renewed fighting: Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall said many Iranians had been expecting another US attack despite renewed talk of negotiations. “They have been waiting and expecting a surprise American attack,” Vall said, adding that Tehran retaliated by striking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, according to military commanders. The latest exchanges mark another night of direct confrontation after both sides had suggested the previous round of attacks had come to an end.

Below: Iran releases video showing this its latest missile launches targeting US bases in the Middle East:

President Trump is again trying his hand at forcing Iran to negotiate and capitulate through bombing, most recently warning in a statement to Fox News that if Iran does not accept a US deal, it would come under American fire power once again “tomorrow night” — so the clock is ticking Thursday, apparently. 

While Trump claimed the Iranians had contacted Washington, urging a halt to the attacks, Tehran leadership has rejected that this actually happened. The whole situation is somewhat of a return to the same stalemated reality of the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury.

In the Gulf of Oman, US forces have reportedly disabled another oil tanker charged with ‘violating the blockade’ put into place by the US Navy. This marks the third commercial vessel disabled by American forces this week. According to a fresh CENTCOM description of the action:

U.S. forces disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman at 11:20 p.m. ET on June 10 after the vessel violated the blockade against Iran by attempting to transport Iranian oil, marking the third commercial ship disabled by American forces this week.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) acted against Guinea-Bissau flagged M/T Jalveer as it attempted to transport oil from Iran through the Gulf of Oman. A U.S. aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the ship’s engine room after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from U.S. forces.

Earlier this week, U.S. aircraft disabled Palau-flagged vessels M/T Marivex and M/T Settebello on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Marivex violated the blockade by attempting to sail to an Iranian port and Settebello attempted to transport Iranian oil.

In total: U.S. forces have disabled 9 non-compliant vessels since initiating the blockade of Iran’s ports on April 13.

Bloomberg reports early Thursday:

Qatar negotiators depart Tehran after talks on US, Iran: diplomat to AFP

Some regional media, such as Al Arabiya, are reporting that negotiations between Tehran and Washington are ongoing (likely only indirectly, if at all) – though there hasn’t been official confirmation of this from the Islamic Republic side at all. Instead, they are calling even the extended ceasefire itself ‘meaningless’.

According to the latest communication, Iran’s Defense Ministry says the country will not back down in the face of threats or pressure, with the national armed forces remaining on high alert, ready to inflict retaliation and punishment.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/11/2026 – 07:45

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