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Goldman Flags Tightening Power Grid In Texas Amid Rapid Data Center Growth

Goldman Flags Tightening Power Grid In Texas Amid Rapid Data Center Growth

Goldman shared some of their thoughts on the tightening of power markets as the decade comes to a close. ERCOT’s own Preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast now sees baseline peak-summer demand (excluding most medium and large loads) growing at a 5.2% average annual rate from 2026 through 2030. This is already well above the 3.4% realized average of 2022-2025. 

Layer in the medium- and large-scale additions, overwhelmingly data centers plus crypto and industrial electrification, and the forecast explodes to 31% average annual peak-summer growth.

Put that in national context and Texas alone would account for 39% of total U.S. peak-summer power demand by 2030, up from just 11% last year, assuming the rest of the country continues its slower recent trajectory. 

Goldman analysts flag a 200 GW queue of large-load applications sitting with the grid operator. Even if only 10% of that queue ultimately energizes, it would still lift the region’s demand growth rate above 9% against an expected 6% annual increase in effective generation capacity over the same window. That math points to a high probability of a critically tight market unless supply-side responses accelerate sharply in the next few years.

A quick look at Goldman’s recent nuclear report for last month shows the large grid-scale reactor industry is still sleeping in the US…

Earlier we highlighted ERCOT’s disclosure that multiple clusters of proposed hyperscale loads and crypto facilities failed voltage ride-through testing. Four of those groups alone could shed more than 5,000 MW (Boston-sized chunks of demand) during routine transmission disturbances. That is the demand-side mirror of the Spain blackout dynamics we referenced, where rapid disconnections and inadequate reactive power support turned a manageable event into a cascading failure.

ERCOT is not alone in upgrading its outlook. PJM lifted its 10-year average annual peak-summer demand growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.6% earlier this year. MISO raised its 20-year view from 1.6% to 2% in April, more than doubling its realized 2022-2025 average of 0.8%. 

These changes reflect the same AI-driven commercial load surge now visible in the data. Goldman shows the U.S. commercial sector posting the strongest year-over-year power demand growth in January-February at +1.8%, while industrial and residential lagged. Nationally, data-center capacity additions are accelerating, with Texas, Virginia, Arizona, Ohio, Indiana, and Georgia leading the way on a year-over-year basis.

On the generation side, the picture is mixed. Solar continues its seasonal ramp with solid year-over-year capacity additions. 

Natural gas-fired output has been responsive. But nuclear has been weaker due to maintenance outages, hydro is suffering from drought across more than half the country, and coal remains under pressure. 

Construction employment tied to data-center and utility work is rising sharply, which is welcome, but employment is not the same as energized megawatts and reinforced lines.

We noted flags starting to pop up regarding the lack of construction industry manpower back in October…

And we also noted other analysts starting to recognize the same body count issue – the lack of engineers and other skilled laborers to build the energy generating side of the grid. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 18:50

The Potemkin Ballot

The Potemkin Ballot

Authored by Spyridon Andrews via American Greatness,

The only completely predictable result of an election in a Western democracy is election fraud.

Fraud is so fundamental to Western democracies that it is fair to say that democracies exist in name only. In fact, elections have become so essential to illegitimate power that they are almost the surest path to subvert the will of the people. Potemkin elections are essential ways for the ruling class to mask that they are truly in control. The notion of the divine right, or right of the aristocracy to rule, died a relatively quick death after the Renaissance. And the 14th-century political Renaissance led by figures such as Leonardo Bruni, the brilliant Renaissance historian who later became chancellor of Florence, brought back the notion of the Roman Republic to the modern era. Florence reinvented free elections of the citizenry; however, the notion of citizenry was limited compared to today.

Palazzo Vecchio, the town hall of Florence, which sits on the Piazza della Signoria.

Uniquely, Florence had no king, duke, or hereditary monarch during much of the Renaissance. Power was vested in the city’s executive governing council, or the signoria. The Council was led by a chief magistrate, known as the Gonfaloniere di Giustizia or justice. There were various legislative and advisory councils, as well as guilds that represented merchants, banks, craftsmen, and professionals.

In order to avoid “corruption,” the Florentines used the lottery system. When a government position opened, names were drawn from bags. As a further precaution, terms were short, only two months, and rotations were constant.

Cosimo the Elder or “Father of the Fatherland.” Posthumous portrait attributed to unknown 16th-century Florentine workshop artists.

Enter the Medici. It was Cosimo de’ Medici who transformed the system into the dynasty that is famous in history. The Medici controlled the largest banking network in Europe and, consequently, extended credit to many of the continent’s most powerful families. The success of a merchant’s business relied upon loans or assistance from the Medici. As a result, patronage opportunities were abundant, and the Medici had a ready-made army of supporters. They also had the support of the intelligentsia through their patronage of literature and the arts. There was no need for Cosimo to be elected to office or even to be seen all that much.

This, however, did not prevent the Medici from influencing electoral outcomes in their favor. Although appointments were decided by lot, there was an art to ensuring that the correct names got dropped into the lottery in the first place. Committees controlled by the Medici determined which citizens were eligible to be elected to posts. So, although a genuine lottery was held, the candidate pool was not so genuine. Florence, on the surface, held free elections and had councils, debates, and all the symbolism of republicanism. But it was controlled by the family who controlled the money supply.

If this sounds familiar, this is because the Medici’s influence extended well beyond their patronage of literature and the arts. During the reign of Louis XIII in France, Cardinal Richelieu never wore a crown. Nevertheless, he controlled foreign policy, court appointments, political alliances, and intelligence networks.

William “Boss Tweed” (1823–78)

In America in the 19th and 20th centuries, the New York machine at Tammany Hall ran the show. The outward constitutional order remained in place, while the political bosses determined the candidates who could run, who received the patronage jobs, and who was awarded the political contracts. While Boss Tweed was an important part of the machine while he was alive, the machine outlived him, and the candidates became fungible.

The same type of arrangement was in place in Chicago from the time of Mike McDonald in the late 19th century all the way to the Daleys in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. McDonald and his political machine financed businesses and candidates, controlled networks, and made or broke political careers. McDonald was succeeded by the duo of Michael “Hinky Dink” Kenna and John Coughlin, an unlikely pair of Irish mobsters who ran the gambling houses and brothels, owned the police, and made sure that their business interests were fully accommodated by the mayors they owned. While neither Boss Tweed nor Mike McDonald were above stuffing ballot boxes or breaking a few legs to ensure the appropriate result, those were matters that only needed to be resorted to in dire emergencies.

The Old Federal Building, where Washington took the First Presidential Oath of Office in 1789.

The modern-day Rothschilds are perhaps less interesting as a secret cabal than as the outrageously wealthy banking family that can make or break global banks and governments. In the late 18th century, Mayer Amschel Rothschild placed his five sons in the European financial centers of London, Frankfurt, Paris, Vienna, and Naples. From there they went on to finance governments, underwrite sovereign debt, fund railroads and infrastructure, and move money across borders as fast as their clients needed it. And it is indisputable that the Rothschilds were fundamental in creating the modern state of Israel—from funding settlements to funding the Israeli parliament building.

It is not simply that the wealthy classes needed additional help to grab political power, but they sure received it in the Citizens United case in 2010. A majority of conservative justices held that political speech is protected by the First Amendment and that the identity of the speaker, whether it is a corporation, union, or nonprofit, does not eliminate that protection. While that was all very noble, the Supreme Court further held that independent expenditures are different from direct campaign contributions and that the states could not limit such spending. Needless to say, political spending exploded, and Super PACs, industry associations, labor-backed organizations, and ideological advocacy groups began buying up politicians and votes like a Blue Light Special at K-Mart.

Politicians selling themselves like hookers on South Figueroa Street in L.A. is not enough these days. Donors need insurance policies for the peace of mind that their investments do not go to waste. And so, they are not above good old-fashioned voter fraud. The alleged appearance of 24,000 votes from nowhere in the Los Angeles Mayoral primary election this week is a testament to the new era of “mail-in balloting,” which is about as legitimate as a Florida time-share. It was the midnight deliveries of mail-in ballots in swing districts during the 2020 election that led to the Capitol protests on January 6, 2021—and the perception by nearly half of Americans that the election was outright stolen.

The utter ignorance of the history of election fraud in the United States is perhaps the major reason that anyone would believe that our federal elections are trustworthy. Apart from the outright purchase of votes in Congress, American history has consistently had patterns of repeat voting, padded rolls, absentee-ballot abuses, vote buying, dead voters, false or corrupted registrations, not to mention election-official complicity, patronage pressure, counting manipulation, control of election officials, and downright intimidation. Election fraud is not prosecuted as often as it should be, but it is prosecuted with regular frequency. The 1982 Illinois Election Fraud cases, combined with the Greylord investigations and indictments of federal and local judges, have clearly demonstrated the infiltration of organized crime into the courtroom. And allegations of organized crime connections between presidents such as Kennedy and Nixon have swirled for decades.

This does not account for the recent charges and countercharges regarding gerrymandering, the reluctance to impose voter ID requirements, allegations regarding dark-money pools, and “legal” lobbying, which is considered outright bribery in other countries. Chicago’s corruption runs so deep that the residents of the city just assume that’s the way it’s all supposed to work. In fact, I hear Chicagoans complain that the system ran better when there was more of a sticker price on what it cost to fix a traffic ticket, reduce a murder charge, or buy an alderman’s vote on a zoning permit.

The demands of a democratic society have equally necessitated workarounds for unsavory results that stem from the will of the people. It was not the will of the people that brought us into either of the World Wars in the 20th century—certain workarounds had to be put into place. Although the cost of life, around 27,000 Americans, was regrettable during the Meuse-Argonne Offensive during World War I, the conveniently placed Zimmerman telegram alleging a German–Mexican alliance was necessary to bring us into the war in the first place.

American Doughboys in the final year of the Great War, likely captured at the Meuse-Argonne Offensive.

Pearl Harbor was regrettable, but apparently our leaders determined that the loss of life was necessary in order to make a highly unpopular war seem necessary. Americans did not vote to intern Japanese citizens, nor did they vote to infect black soldiers with syphilis. But our politicians knew better. In the last two wars, the threat of weapons of mass destruction has led to wars that politicians wanted to fight against Iraq and Iran. And so democratic government does not just necessitate vote buying and election tampering, but also an occasional well-placed lie in order to meet the demands of governing in accordance with the desires of the moneyed interests.

A cynical interpretation might hold that extending suffrage to women and the poor was less about social justice than about creating larger, more easily mobilized voting blocs. Vast voter pools, especially ones that can be purchased through government programs, motivated by single issues or through perceived grievances brought on by other groups, are terrific tools to stay in power.

When these issues become supercharged with emotion, usually through manipulation of media sources or outright lies, they usher forth passionate armies that stand for a candidate or a political party. A much more economical way to hold a voter base together is to convince them that Neil, who coaches your son’s little league team, is a fascist because he’s a Republican, or that Ahmed, who runs the 7-11 next to the dry cleaner, is an existential threat.

One could be cynical and believe that our political class has nothing but disdain for their voters and that they are capable of literally any act to stay in power. One could even believe that because they have seemingly lied to us about everything from the reasons to go to war, the origin of a global pandemic financed by our own government, or the extent of government surveillance by the NSA, they would be capable of anything.

We could say that. But that would be undemocratic.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 18:25

Bank Of Japan Governor Ueda Hospitalized, Will Miss June Meeting

Bank Of Japan Governor Ueda Hospitalized, Will Miss June Meeting

Bank of Japan’s 74-year-old Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized for medical treatment and will miss the June 15 to 16 ‌policy meeting, the central bank said on Wednesday. It is the first time for the governor, who chairs the BOJ’s policy discussions, to miss a scheduled meeting since the central bank began deciding policy ​under the current arrangement in 1998.

The governor will submit a written statement on his view on policy but will not participate in ​next week’s vote, the BOJ said in a statement.  Ueda is expected to remain in hospital for about two ⁠weeks getting treatment for an infected liver cyst, work remotely and attend the next July 30 to 31 policy meeting, the central bank said.

The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates next week to levels unseen in three decades to counter the plunging yen, crashing bond prices and reverse soaring inflationary pressures from the Iran war.

Ueda’s hospitalization is unlikely to affect next week’s decision, with a rate hike highly anticipated, but it will complicate the BOJ’s communication ​about what may come next, said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities.

“With Ueda’s absence, the BOJ may decide not to send clear signals on the future rate path. Given uncertainty on how long it may take for the governor to fully recover, it’s also become more unclear on whether the BOJ would hike again this ​year.”

The BOJ said that Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will preside over the rate review in place of Ueda, while the other deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, is set to ​host the post-meeting press conference. 

The announcement follows one the BOJ made in late May that its Deputy Governor Uchida had been discharged from hospital after recovering ‌from leukaemia ⁠treatment. 

The yen was roughly steady on the day against the dollar, which traded at 160.5, a level traders watch closely as it has triggered official intervention in the past.

Since taking control of the BOJ in 2023, Ueda has spent the first half of his tenure dismantling the remnants of his predecessor’s massive stimulus as rising commodity and energy costs and intensifying labor shortages propelled inflation above the BOJ’s 2% target.

The BOJ is now at a ​critical juncture as it moves away from ​withdrawing stimulus in baby steps ⁠towards fighting inflation – something it has not done for decades.

Ueda’s hawkish speech earlier this month underscored the BOJ’s changed narrative that led markets to near fully price in the chance of a June rate hike, yet which saw no upside for the yen. At the previous meeting in ​April, three of the BOJ’s nine board members already voted in favor of hiking its short-term policy rate ​to 1% from 0.75%, ⁠and since then two more, Junko Koeda and Kazuyuki Masu, called for a near-term rate hike.

However, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known as an advocate of loose fiscal and monetary policy, has voiced reservations over the BOJ’s rate-hike plans (because like every other politicians, she is focused on the “wealth effect” first and foremost, even if it means galloping inflation).

Some analysts said Ueda’s health issue may offer Takaichi an opportunity to influence the BOJ policy including ⁠by selecting ​his successor if the governor were to step down. Yet according to Norihiro Yamaguchi, senior economist at Oxford Economics ​in Tokyo, such a scenario now appeared unlikely.

“That said, it is also true that Takaichi is likely to appoint a more dovish person if she were to appoint a new ​governor,” he said.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 18:00

US Begins “Self-Defense” Strikes Against Multiple Targets In Iran

US Begins “Self-Defense” Strikes Against Multiple Targets In Iran

Summary

  • US begins strikes on Iran for second straight night: according to Centrom, “US forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.”
  • Explosions had been heard in the Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr,
  • Hegseth confirms imminent attacks on key Iranian facilities
  • Trump says “Will be attacking Iran hard again today”
  • Trump says “secret mission” has reopened the Strait
  • Trump tells Fox he “may keep going” with strikes.
  • Trump says Iran took too long to negotiate, and now “will have to pay the price”.
  • Tehran claims prior night attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed ‘retaliation’ – targeted the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, footage shows.
  • Iran again signals it could cut off all indirect talks & any negotiations, says it is ‘reviewing’ US talks after latest exchange of missiles.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

US Begins strikes on Iran

After multiple previews of the main event, US Central Command said that its forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. “The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.”
 

Local Iran media reported that explosions had been heard in the Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr, while Al Hadath reported than an explosion was heard in the Al-Saban military camp in Aden, Yemen.

Additionally, there are unconfirmed reports that retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile launches are already underway, amidst what appears to be the resumption of a new round of U.S. strikes on Iran.

* * * 

Hegseth Signals Imminent Attacks On Key Iranian Facilities, Iran Says “Fully Prepared”

Echoing President trump’s earlier comments, Sectary of War Pet Hegseth just announced that: “CENTCOM will be busy tonight, we will be hitting Iran hard, we will bomb key facilities in Iran.”

As @MarioNawfal writes, Announcing the strikes before they happen is itself the strategy.

You don’t telegraph a bombing campaign hours in advance unless the message matters more than the surprise.

This is the final-pressure play in its purest form: the bombs are loaded, the targets are picked, and the paper is still on the table waiting for a signature.

An Iranian military source told Tasnim news that:

“The Iranian armed forces are fully prepared tonight. If the Americans take any aggressive action, they will once again face heavy responses. 

The Americans’ idea of ‘controlled escalation’ is foolish, and Iran will not hesitate to dictate new calculations to the Americans.”

Oil prices are up at the highs of the day on the news…

Trump says “Secret Mission” has Allowed 200 Ships, 100 Million Barrels of Oil Through Strait

Confirming our reported from both a week ago (see “As Gulf States Plan Bypass Pipelines, US Military Is Quietly Helping Ships Cross Hormuz“) and this afternoon (“Growing Number Of Oil Tankers Successfully Sneak Through Hormuz, Shrinking Iran’s Leverage“) moments ago Trump posted on Truth Social that he had “directed our Great U.S. Military to execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Strait of Hormuz.” Of course, the mission wasn’t that secret if we discussed how the US military was helping ship cross the Strait one week ago. 

In any case, Trump added that “this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Strait, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait,” which would explain why oil prices have remained low and confirms what Goldman’s Delta One head, Rich Privorotsky, wrote this morning, namely that “a lot has been thrown at the oil market and it’s simply not going up, which is remarkable given the level of escalation. The only conclusion that really fits the price action is that barrels are still getting through the Strait of Hormuz, visibly or otherwise. There doesn’t seem to be a more rational explanation.”

“This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran” Trump concluded.

Now the question is whether Iran, whose leverage in the conflict would be viewed as dramatically reduced as a result of this development, will allow stealthy tankers and other ships, with transponders shut, to continue crossing the strait affirming Trump’s implicit claim that the country no longer has control over the strait, or if Tehran will make a public demonstration of how much control it still has.

Trump says “will be attacking Iran hard again today”

Oil surged, jumping by more than a dollar with WTI rising above $91 with Brent touching $94 after President Trump vowed to strike Iran again and slammed the country for delaying talks on an interim peace deal, after renewed attacks overnight put further strain on a fragile two-month truce.

“We’re going to be attacking them, attacking them very hard,” Trump told reporters at the White House Wednesday. “We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit them hard again today.”

Trump declined to say what targets US forces would hit in Iran. The president renewed earlier criticism that Tehran has taken too long to negotiate an end to the conflict. 

“I’ve been working with Iran for a number of months, and they should sign their deal,” he said. “It was just tap, tap, tap, I don’t know what they’re doing.”

Trump said he retaliated against the Islamic Republic for shooting down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has not confirmed shooting down the aircraft and said it was reconsidering whether to persist with negotiations in light of the US attacks.

“The diplomatic process doesn’t happen in a vacuum and to advance any diplomatic process you need a minimum space to be able to move forward,” Esmail Baghaei, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, was cited by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency as saying. “Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority.”

Trump’s comments came after the two sides once again exchanged strikes, underscoring how high tensions are running and the risk that intermittent indirect talks between Iran and the US may be derailed. The overnight clashes followed a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel earlier this week, but halted after Trump called on both sides to stop.

The S&P extended its decline to more than 1% and WTI climbed above $91 a barrel to session highs, after Trump’s comments.

Since almost the start of the conflict, Trump has swung from threats of intensified attacks to touting that a deal is within reach. Even with tensions escalating since last week, he had signaled he wants to contain hostilities and avoid a return to all-out war before the new post. 

A White House official said talks are still ongoing and that the US will exert maximum pressure until a deal is reached. Fox News first reported the status of the talks. The semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to discuss the diplomatic process to end the war.

The US military said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missiles on four American targets, including shelters housing F-35 fighter jets and a command center for the US military at Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, state-run IRIB News said on Wednesday.

Iran also said it fired drones at the main US naval base in the Middle East, located in Bahrain, and struck Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait.  Kuwait’s defense ministry said it had intercepted projectiles early Wednesday, while Jordan said it had intercepted five Iranian missiles.

Tehran said it had exercised its “inherent right to legitimate self defense” and warned regional states not to allow the US and Israel to use their territory as a staging post for strikes on the Islamic Republic.

There were no immediate reports of casualties in any of the attacks.

* * * 

Could ‘Keep Going’ With Strikes: Trump to Fox

More strikes coming? Trump is certainly strongly hinting at this, and yet an overall strategic vision still remains murky and ill-defined. Once again he in a short 12-hour period went from hyping a deal being a few days away, to now threatening yet more attack waves on Iran, in wake of last night’s:

President Trump said Wednesday that he’s close to ordering more strikes on Iran after the country’s attacks targeting American bases in Persian Gulf nations, according to Fox News’ Trey Yingst.

Mr. Trump said he “may keep going” with strikes, which he said would target power plants and bridges, because Iranian negotiators are “tapping the United States along,” according to Yingst.

He wrote on Truth Social just before these comments that Iran will have to “pay the price” after taking too long to proceed with negotiations. 

Trump: Iran Took Too Long To Negotiation, Now Will ‘Pay’

As part of what the United States is calling its latest ‘defensive strikes’ after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter in the Hormuz region, American forces overnight into the early Wednesday hours targeted “air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites” – the Pentagon said. Iran confirmed that there were indeed fresh attacks around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, but gave no details on the damage, or info on other strikes potentially conducted elsewhere across the Islamic Republic.

“The operation was a proportional response to recent attacks on U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) said. Trump is meanwhile again lashing out at Tehran, claiming its military is now a “complete and total mess” – and yet it keeps responding:

Oil reacts, sensing no peaceful off-ramp or de-escalation on the horizon…

Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan Hit Hard by Iranian Overnight Attack

Tehran later claimed attacks in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as fulfilment of its previously vowed ‘retaliation’ – and given these countries host American forces. This marks merely the second time this week the ceasefire was ignored (or rather, shattered – though the White House is maintaining it’s still on) with major tit-for-tat strikes, as each side asserts that it is acting ‘defensively’.

Iran has been saying it’s going to keep up the pressure on Washington and its Gulf allies through both the ‘battlefield and diplomacy’ – with Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei freshly charging that the US is “undermining” the diplomatic process through “contradictory messages, frequent shifts in its positions and demands, as well as repeated violations of the ceasefire.”

He indicated that at this point there’s not even the “minimum level of conducive conditions” that is “required in order to carry out diplomacy effectively.”

Bahrain and Kuwait got hit hardest in these newest strikes, with reports saying the US Fifth Fleet base came under fire:

Iran Touting Both ‘Diplomacy & the Battlefield’

“The Zionist regime is also damaging this process through its repeated violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon,” Baghaei said, adding “any diplomatic process is harmed by the use of force and unlawful actions.”

Diplomacy and the battlefield are not separate matters. Together they serve as instruments for safeguarding Iran’s national interests and security,” he stressed in a familiar refrain of late.

He also indicated the question of negotiations will be “reviewed” in light of last night’s developments, and further emphasized, “Wherever necessary, our armed forces will respond to the enemy with authority.

“Every Side Believes They Can Control the Escalation”

But it’s also clear Tehran feels it must assert strong red lines immediately and without hesitation if it is to survive this now several months-long military confrontation with Washington. On this, longtime regional war correspondent and analyst Elijah Magnier has some insight as to each side’s calculus

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Magnier said it’s a volatile situation with no “stable political exit” as peace is far from being achieved while Lebanon and Gaza remain outside of any final settlement.

“The most dangerous thing is that every side believes they can control the escalation. However, a repeated incident can erode restraint, and if talks collapse completely, this controlled escalation could widen into a much larger conflict,” he said.

History has shown if “one strike crosses the red line” the attacks can spiral out of control, said Magnier.

Indeed in many ways that’s how we got here in the first place.

Vital water infrastructure reportedly struck in Iran during this new round of intense but brief escalation:

The White House believed it could control the outcome from day one of Operation Epic Fury, and then perhaps a bit of panic set among US officials in when it was realized the government in Tehran would not so easily fall, and that the military apparatus would become hardened, and its power expanded. 

Reports of another US MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down over Iran:

From there it took many weeks to get the naval armada in place, enough to where a blockade could be enacted against Iran’s ports and its crucial oil exports. The White House continues to face several ‘bad’ and ‘worse’ options for dealing with the crisis, as energy prices are set to soar this summer.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk…

  • US President Trump told ABC that the US was responding to Iran and that it is important to respond to Iran downing the helicopter, as well as noted that the response is very strong and powerful.
  • US VP JD Vance said the US is very close to reaching a deal that would address Iran’s nuclear programme for the long term, which could come next week or months from now, but absolutely before the midterms, according to CBS.
  • White House senior official said nothing has changed in their position regarding an agreement with Iran and it is still close despite the strikes.
  • A US official said the US military carried out strikes on almost 20 targets inside of Iran, but noted preliminary assessments indicate most Iranian missiles and drones were successfully intercepted.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said they need to reassess, following the overnight clashes, when questioned on talks with the US, SNN reported.
  • Iranian Foreign Ministry statement strongly condemns America’s crime in its military aggression against Iran.
  • An Iranian military source tells IRIB that no offensive military operations have been conducted in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. Warned that if the enemy carries out another hostile action under the pretext of the military helicopter crash, it will face a decisive response.
  • A massive fire in the centre of Erbil and an explosion has been heard near the US base in the vicinity, Mehr news reported citing sources.
  • Local sources reported that an explosion was heard in the area of Qeshm city, Mehr News reports. However, this was later denied by the Qeshm governor.
  • UN Security Council debated reviving the Iran sanctions panel, although Russia and China opposed the revival of the Iran sanctions committee, according to Tasnim.
  • Israeli air raids hit the Lebanese towns of Touline, Srifa and Kafra. It was separately reported that missiles were spotted from Lebanon that were headed towards Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings, while rockets launched from Lebanon towards Upper Galilee were also detected.
  • UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20nm Northeast of Oman’s Sohar.
  • UKMTO reported an incident involving a cargo vessel 88 nautical miles southwest of Balhaf, Yemen.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 17:42

Solar Tops Coal In US Power Mix For The First Month Ever

Solar Tops Coal In US Power Mix For The First Month Ever

Solar power held a record-high 12.8% share of US electricity supply in May, overtaking coal-generated power for the first full month on record, energy think tank Ember said in a report on Wednesday. As OilPrice notes, while the share of solar-generated power jumped to a record high for a full month, the share of coal in the U.S. electricity mix slumped to 12.2% last month, the fourth-lowest monthly share of coal ever.

Solar generated an all-time high total of 45.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) in May, up by 17% from a year earlier and surpassing the previous record set in July last year, according to Ember’s data. In May, solar also became the third-largest source of electricity in the U.S., behind natural gas and nuclear power generation.

At the same time, coal generation hit an all-time monthly low of 39.3 TWh in April 2026. Coal power output rebounded to 43.4 TWh in May, but still remained 11% below May 2025 levels.

“Overtaking coal for the first month on record shows just how far solar has come, from a niche contributor to the third-largest and fastest-growing source of power in the US electricity system,” said Nicolas Fulghum, Senior Data Analyst at Ember.

“From Texas to California, markets across the US are betting on solar to meet rising power needs,” Fulghum added.

Despite the Trump Administration’s assault on renewable energy and support for the coal industry, solar and wind power generation in the United States is booming, including in many red states that President Trump won such as Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Arizona, and Mississippi.

In a separate report also out on Wednesday, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie said that despite changing tax policy and regulatory actions targeting clean energy, solar and energy storage represented 91% of all new capacity installed in the U.S. in the first quarter as utilities, homeowners, and businesses seek energy security amid global gas and gas turbine supply disruptions.

States won by President Trump accounted for 74% of all solar capacity installed in the first quarter, according to SEIA and WoodMac’s U.S. Solar Market Insight 2026 Q2 Report.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 16:40

Stop Destroying Civilization!

Stop Destroying Civilization!

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

In the #MeToo years, the Left’s signature slogan was “Believe All Women!”

That directive was used to bolster Christine Blasey Ford’s preposterous and easily refuted 2018 allegations that some 35 years earlier she had been sexually assaulted by Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, when both were teenagers.

Two years later, the Left quietly junked that “Believe Women!” credo when Tara Reade came forward and lodged a far more credible charge that 2020 Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden had sexually assaulted her when she was a Biden senatorial staffer.

Seven other women alleged that Biden acted toward them in sexually inappropriate ways. The Left more or less ignored these serial charges, and in Reade’s case, demonized her. Suddenly, the new mantra was “Believe women only if they prove useful to the Left.”

Since then, the grotesque sexual misconduct involving Democratic politicians—from New York governor Andrew Cuomo to California Congressman Eric Swalwell—has finally put #MeToo to rest. We were reminded of its demise when it was revealed that Maine senatorial candidate and socialist heartthrob Graham Platner had been discovered to possess a long social media history of crude and pornographic put-downs of women.

Indeed, an entire gaggle of former girlfriends has attested to his Nazi fascinations, his contempt for women, and his occasional physical violence against them.

So what?

Or as feminist icon and former #MeToo-er Senator Elizabeth Warren put it, speaking at a Platner campaign rally in Portland, Maine, “I’m here because Washington needs fighters, and Graham Platner is the fighter we need.”

But a fighter for what cause—and on whose behalf?

The demise of Black Lives Matter (BLM) offers another example of a recurring left-wing phenomenon: movements that begin as moral crusades and end as self-parodies. Almost every BLM cause célèbre has proved fraudulent, following a long tradition that stretches from Al Sharpton’s Tawana Brawley myth to the Duke lacrosse scandal.

The ginned-up BLM riots that followed the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, were all based on an abject lie. Brown never said, “Hands up, don’t shoot.” In fact, he attacked a police officer repeatedly and was lethally shot as he charged toward the officer.

Failing actor Jussie Smollett was never attacked by white MAGA thugs in the wee hours of a cold Chicago night. Instead, the faker Smollett hired two Nigerian-Americans, decked out in MAGA hats, to stage a mock attack. Only by staging such an attack could Smollett claim victim status, attract national sympathy as a target of white hatred, and attempt to revive his fading career.

Yet, for a while, the con worked. Soon-to-be Vice President Kamala Harris, who would go on to praise the often-violent mass George Floyd demonstrations of 2020, raged that the attack by anonymous white “racists” was an “attempted modern-day lynching.” Right—and she never apologized for spreading that lie.

The aftermath of the death of George Floyd did lasting damage to the country that still reverberates. Floyd was a career criminal. He had been imprisoned for participating in a home invasion where he pressed a gun into the stomach of a terrified young woman, who was beaten by one of his fellow criminals.

At the time of his arrest, Floyd was in poor condition both physically and legally—attempting to pass counterfeit currency, high on drugs, recovering from COVID, and resisting arrest.

He died after a police officer restrained him using an authorized but controversial protocol that involved placing a knee on the prostrate suspect’s neck—and did not heed in time Floyd’s call that he could not breathe.

What followed was the high-water mark of BLM. Four months of nightly riots led to some 35 deaths; 1,500 injured law enforcement officers; $2 billion in property damage; 14,000 arrests; and the torching of a police precinct, a federal courthouse, and an iconic Washington, D.C., church. The current leftist habit of urban intersection takeovers, statue-toppling, name-changing, and violent demonstrations is a legacy of that summer of lawlessness.

So we still live with the toxic ripples from the aftermath and the canonization of Floyd.

Thousands of police officers nationwide were laid off in “defund the police” madness. Faddish “critical race” and “critical legal” theories led to no cash bail and the near-immediate release of hundreds of thousands of arrested violent criminals.

Our supposedly best universities, in Pavlovian fashion, dropped the SAT admission requirement and upped race-based admissions.

Racially segregated graduation ceremonies, dorms, and “safe spaces” proliferated—along with newly introduced remedial math courses at our top campuses. Indeed, professors began handing out A’s to 80 percent of the student body, as Ivy League schools now inflated grades far more than did community colleges.

Administrators and bureaucrats soon created thousands of DEI positions across universities and corporations.

This craze led to McCarthyite “diversity statements,” an epidemic of alleged victimhood, untold billions of dollars squandered, and workplace productivity diminished. And the result was certainly not better race relations.

We were just reminded again of the absurdity of the immediate post-Floyd years, after learning that the inverse of Floyd’s death had recently transpired in the United Kingdom.

Eighteen-year-old Henry Nowak, a white male student, was fatally stabbed by a Sikh immigrant with his “ceremonial” sword. In truth, the weapon was an eight-inch knife mysteriously exempted from Britain’s otherwise tough laws against possession of knives.

According to reports, Vickrum Digwa called police and falsely claimed that the dying Nowak had initiated the confrontation with racial slurs, while family members attempted to conceal the weapon. (Would a Scottish highlander claim that he too had the right to carry an eight-inch broadsword as integral to his race, religion, and indigenous traditions?)

No matter—the police arrived hungry to deal with a sensational case of George Floyd-style, white-on-non-white racial violence.

Instead, they reportedly treated Digwa as the victim and handcuffed the mortally wounded and bleeding Nowak as he pleaded—nine times in total—that he could not breathe and was dying. They therefore almost certainly ensured his death. The national reaction?

No British politician went into full George Floyd take-a-knee mode—as they had in 2020, even across the Atlantic, for the felon George Floyd. The ensuing unrest, so far, seems mainly to have been limited to Southampton; there has been no mass destruction of property; there have been no mass assaults. Nowak was on the wrong side of the left-wing race-based binary of victim/victimizer and thus offered no fuel for virtue-signaling by hollow politicians. Such racial reductionism always trumps matters of class, evidence—and the truth.

As for the fate of the BLM architects? The founders never accounted for how their $90 million in donations was actually spent, but they did disappear into their newly purchased multi-million-dollar homes and have hardly been heard from since.

The episodes of existential psychodramas that come and go—after doing enormous damage to the nation—are nearly endless.

A number of American and international agencies and “experts” have now, mostly quietly, sighed that global warming was never really the existential danger that the Left swore would put “Earth in the balance” in a mere decade.

Nonetheless, once again, the toll has been enormous. Germany wrecked its economy to seek mythical “net zero” carbon emissions—by dismantling natural gas, oil, and nuclear power plants and turning to costly, inefficient, and unreliable solar and wind power.

This green mania swept the Western world—as China built two to three coal-fired power plants a month.

The left-wing, postmodern, globalist notion of a borderless utopian world that would fuel endless “diversity” has done so much damage to Western nations that even the European Left now fears its own political suicide from the vast influxes of often hostile illegal aliens.

Millions of unlawful and unvetted entrants crashed the borders, with no desire to integrate, assimilate, or acculturate to their Western hosts. They have spiked crime, fueled anti-Semitism, and ensured unsustainable social welfare costs.

The transgender frenzy was to be the Left’s next civil rights crusade, as it constructed a new victimized class with reparatory claims against the guilty traditionalist majority.

It mattered little that gender dysphoria was an ancient phenomenon, documented even in classical literature as a rare and aberrant syndrome where physical sex was at odds with psychological sexual identification. That malady had also been well known to modern sexologists since the 19th century, who had documented it as rare, involving far less than 0.01 percent of the population.

Nevertheless, the Left invented the unnecessary Orwellian term “transphobe,” and suddenly we were off to the races with transgender biological men nude in gym showers with teen girls and transgender “women” with male musculoskeletal bodies dominating female sports.

Soon, an epidemic of teens began wondering whether they were in fact “trans” and pondering whether to undergo a battery of dangerous hormonal and chemical drug regimens—or calling themselves nonbinary, to the point where the new third sex sometimes seemed almost as numerous as the old two genders.

What accounts for these bouts of periodic, collective, and suicidal madness?

First, the craziness is almost always birthed in the contemporary, affluent, and leisured West, which alone has the capital and resources to afford such freakish sideshows.

Second, the frenzies are usually the creation of the Left, predictably birthed in universities, the media, and the bureaucracies. They appear with familiar symptoms. The irredeemable, deplorable, and “garbage” hoi polloi are supposedly too dense to be properly schooled and thus must be frightened to death in order to adopt agendas that otherwise appear to them as utterly insane.

Junk your natural-gas dryer and grill, or face massive floods on your coasts. Drop the SAT and defund the police or face endless race riots.

Hire thousands of race and gender commissars or be forever tagged as racists, sexists, homophobes, and transphobes. Open the border and let illegal aliens enter by the millions, and thus pay partial penance for “whiteness” as the nation “checks its privilege.”

The Left is correct that few Western voters will openly embrace the unpopular elite agenda of racial fixations, globalism, laxity on crime, and degrowth environmentalism.

So, their long-term solutions have four predictable aspects:

  1. Open the borders to create a more diverse, impoverished, and needy constituency.

  2. Create fake “working-class” pseudo-populist candidates like the pampered Graham Platner, the God-is-nonbinary “new Christian” Talarico, and, of course, the waxen effigy of “good ol’ Joe Biden from Scranton.”

  3. Destroy time-tested systems by seeking to demolish the Electoral College, the 50-state union, the Senate filibuster, and the nine-justice Supreme Court.

  4. Gin up these end-of-days, pseudo-existential crises whose solutions require massive new taxes, bigger government, and more dictatorial elite managers.

One good sign of growing antidotes is that increasingly Americans, and indeed all Westerners, are saying no to green haranguers, no to the gender and sex demagogues, no to the race-baiting industry, no to the open-borders conglomerate, and no to ungrateful immigrants.

Their pushback might be summed up as follows: “We are no longer going to allow you to destroy ancient traditions that ensured our prosperity, security, and liberty, and which were handed down to us by generations far better than your own.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 16:20

OpenAI Eyes Massive 10-Gigawatt Ohio Data Center

OpenAI Eyes Massive 10-Gigawatt Ohio Data Center

OpenAI is moving along in talks to lease a proposed 10-gigawatt data center campus on federal land in Ohio, according to a new report from The Information, in a deal that could include financial backing from Nvidia. This comes as Ohio lawmakers unveiled new legislation aiming to regulate data center build-outs.

The massive 10 GW data center would be the largest data center development ever considered, with a potential buildout cost topping $500 billion based on current prices for chips, labor, and construction materials.

Under the proposed deal, OpenAI would control the chip stacks through a long-term lease and begin making payments once the facility starts operations.

The first phase is expected to come online in 2028. For some context, 10 GW of power is roughly the output of several large nuclear reactors or about 10 large gas-fired power plants running at full capacity. Each GW can power about 700,000 to 1 million homes.

The data center development would require dedicated power generation, substations, transmission lines, cooling infrastructure, access to water or advanced cooling systems, and phased construction over several years.

Simultaneously, Ohio lawmakers have unveiled Substitute House Bill 646, which aims to regulate data center buildouts in the state.

“The Joint Data Center Study Committee has done its job,” Senate Finance Chair Brian Chavez (R-Marietta), who is also the co-chair of the data center committee, said, and quoted by local outlet ABC News 5.

Bill 646 would create a new electric rate class for data centers to ensure that the costs of generation, transmission, and distribution are entirely paid by hyperscalers.

“Make sure the ratepayers are kept harmless, held harmless, and that data centers pay for whatever they’re causing,” Chavez said.

This year alone, Goldman calculates that hyperscalers will unleash $800 billion in data center capex.

Latest data center projects by scale:

Mapping the Buildouts 

The downside risk for the data center buildout boom is that an alarming share of projects are being delayed, scaled back, or canceled this year as local resistance groups intensify pressure campaigns over power demand, water use, land rights, and grid reliability.

Beyond NIMBY opposition, there is also growing concern that some anti-data-center movements may be amplified by foreign influence networks operating through left-wing nonprofits, and comes as China prepares to begin its data center buildout strategy.]

Today’s report also comes days after OpenAI submitted a draft IPO prospectus to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, formally kicking off the process for one of the year’s most hotly anticipated debuts.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 15:40

DHS Directs ICE To Deport Illegal Aliens Who Vote In American Elections

DHS Directs ICE To Deport Illegal Aliens Who Vote In American Elections

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) General Counsel James Percival has directed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to impose strict penalties, including deportation, on illegal aliens who vote in American elections.

According to a DHS press release, the Immigration and Nationality Act directs the removal of aliens who illegally vote or make a false claim to US citizenship.

DHS states that these provisions allow for the removal of illegal aliens if they illegally participate in our elections. No criminal conviction is required for their removal.

Percival said, “The importance of free, fair, and honest elections is without question. Echoing the words of President Trump, ‘the right of American citizens to have their votes properly counted and tabulated, without illegal dilution, is vital to determining the rightful winner of an election.”

Percival added, “Illegal voting by aliens dilutes the votes of American citizens and undermines our democracy. It must have consequences.”

DHS says the directive will help further implement policies similar to those from President Donald Trump’s March 2025 executive order, “Preserving and Protecting the Integrity of American Elections.”

Trump’s order directs actions across the federal government, including the verification of voter eligibility, grant administration, information-sharing, enforcement of federal integrity laws, improving voting systems, and criminal prosecution of unlawful voting by aliens.

The latest directive follows an August 2025 announcement by US Citizenship and Immigration Services, which updated its policy manual to bar green card holders who have voted or registered to vote from obtaining citizenship.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 15:20

Governments Sell Bonds At Record Pace As Global Rates Rise, Spending Soars

Governments Sell Bonds At Record Pace As Global Rates Rise, Spending Soars

In a world already drowning with debt, the only certainty is even more debt 

According to a new analysis by Bloomberg, governments are borrowing from syndicated bond markets at a record clip as public spending surges. That’s in addition to direct sales where the government auctions off debt to institutional investors and individuals.

Sovereign issuers have sold $504 billion of the debt – which is offered to investors via banks – so far this year, a new record. Thet’s more than in the first half of 2020, when in a global emergency nations were paying to support their economies during Covid-19 lockdowns.

Budget deficits have been climbing since the global financial crisis. They spiked during the pandemic, when interest rates were slashed to record lows, and are widening again as governments boost defense spending and try to protect households from price shocks driven by the Iran war. Aging populations and rising interest rates are adding to the pressure.

“The main driver of the supply is basically increased public spending, and thus bigger funding needs,” said Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, pointing to greater outlays on the military, infrastructure and transition to cleaner energy. 

Germany and other nations have been setting aside hundreds of billions of euros for weapons and ammunition, and the EU has relaxed its rules to allow extra spending on defense and energy initiatives that curb consumption of fossil fuels.

AS noted above, the sums raised from syndications are dwarfed by debt sold at regular government auctions, not least because the US Treasury only uses the latter to issue bonds. But hiring banks to sell offerings to investors is popular elsewhere, especially in Europe. It can be a less risky option when markets are volatile, and give debt managers greater control over the timing of the sale. 

According to Bloomberg, for eight of the last 10 years, Italy has been the biggest borrower in the market for sovereign syndications. It is leading again in 2026, having already raised nearly €70 billion ($81 billion) in the first six months. Germany, which eliminated its famous “debt brake” and rewrote its fiscal rules to splurge on defense and infrastructure, raised €14 billion from three syndications so far this year, while the UK, Belgium and Serbia sold their biggest-ever deals. Australia and Mexico are among this year’s top 10 issuers.

Since demand for government debt remains strong, particularly for shorter maturities, governments are seizing the chance to work through a busy refinancing schedule and fund higher spending despite an uncertain path for interest rates, said Johnathan Owen, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.

“They’re using this window while markets are healthy and willing,” he added.Of course, the more markets are “healthy and willing” the bigger the eventual revulsion will be when investors realize they have loaded up to the gills with another batch of debt that will never be repaid.

Meanwhile, as the inflationary shock of war in the Persian Gulf has driven up yields, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated, scrambling predictions for rates. The European Central Bank is set to deliver its first hike since 2023 this week and the US Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy later this year, although what happens thereafter is less clear.

US Treasury auctions suffered from elevated rate market volatility in March, immediately after the start of the conflict. There have been few signs since that investors are losing their appetite for debt, but they are asking for more in return. A 30-year US bond auction in May was the first since 2007 to draw a yield higher than 5%. Meanwhile, the UK’s £15 billion ($20.2 billion) offering in April drew record orders from buyers attracted by the highest yield on 10-year debt since 2008.

Fueling the increase in issuance are higher than normal redemptions, as Covid era bonds begin to mature. Analysis by Natixis SA shows that refinancing deals by euro-area sovereigns have jumped by 26% in 2026, outpacing the 11% year-on-year increase in total syndicated issuance.

“This gap suggests the record first-half is primarily redemption-driven rather than opportunistic front-running ahead of potential rate hikes,” said Theophile Legrand, a rates strategist at Natixis, in comments made at the start of this month. Still, there are signs that some European borrowers may be looking to lock in costs before they rise, based on recent trends.

In May, “redemptions actually declined year-on year, yet syndicated volumes jumped from €32 billion to €45 billion, suggesting at least some degree of opportunistic front-loading,” Legrand added.

According to Bloomberg, the pace of issuance for the rest of the year will depend on what central banks do next. Syndications from Belgium, Spain, Austria and Portugal in May were “earlier than anticipated,” ING strategists including Benjamin Schroeder wrote in a June 3 note. Others are getting in ahead of the summer slowdown. Greece is tapping the market for €3 billion, garnering more than €36 billion of orders for a reopening of existing notes due in 2036. Meanwhile, Sweden is raising €2 billion of three-year debt. Both deals should price on Wednesday.

“There’s still plenty of euro zone sovereign debt to come to market in the second half of the year,” said Harvey Bradley, head of global rates at Insight Investment. And that’s just the start, because after the second half, there will be even more debt every year going forward as record amounts of syndicated debt, both for new issuance and refis, come to market to fund a fiscal model that no longer works. 
 

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 15:00

Goldman Breaks Down Build America 250 Impact On Construction Stocks

Goldman Breaks Down Build America 250 Impact On Construction Stocks

The Build America 250 bill is a proposed transportation infrastructure funding package covering federal projects between 2027 and 2031 and would succeed the Biden-era Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which expires in the coming months.

Goldman analysts, led by Ben Rada Martin, stated that the Build America 250 bill has cleared House committee approval with limited amendments, providing greater clarity around $580 billion for highways, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure.

One main point from the Goldman note is that Build America 250 is not another IIJA-style boom. For the Federal Highway Administration, Martin sees only about an 8% nominal increase relative to IIJA levels, after IIJA delivered a more than 50% federal funding uplift.

Martin pointed out that bridge funding jumped by about 29%, while rail and transit programs face reductions. He expects public highway spending to grow by 6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, though much of that reflects inflation rather than real volume growth. After adjusting for construction cost inflation, he expects flat-to-slightly negative volume trends.

Nominal uplift, with a mix shift to bridges, transit sees cuts: We go through the 1,000-page draft document and amendments to date, with the recent bill implying a broad continuation in spending with a category mix shift toward bridges (+29%), while rail and transit administrations see cuts,” Martin wrote in a note published on Monday.

Highways in detail – Limited expansion, especially net of inflation

Goldman’s prediction model indicates that public construction should continue to grow, but at a slower pace after a very strong 2021 to 2025 period.

Martin said the stock impact of the Build America 250 bill on construction-linked companies is viewed as neutral to slightly negative.

Engineering and Construction – Neutral/Mix:

  • US (GVA, AECOM, J): We view the bill as broadly net neutral for GVA (diversified civil contractor), as funding implies flat to modest real volume declines. For Jacobs and AECOM (engineering and design firms), we see a modest negative impact, reflecting cuts to rail and transit. While state and local infrastructure accounts for ~25–30% of revenue for both companies, we believe they are relatively overweight transit versus traditional infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, tunnels).
  • EU (Ferrovial): The bill is likely to be neutral for Ferrovial’s construction division – with Webber and Ferrovial Construction largely exposed to the broad US infrastructure segment, across bridges, highways, waterworks, and energy. When it comes to future infrastructure projects (P3), Ferrovial could benefit from lower government infrastructure spend, given lower crowding out effects increasing private market opportunities and ROI.

Lightside building materials

  • (EU – Sika, SGO) – Neutral: Construction Chemicals are used in more complex engineering projects and in greater quantities in infrastructure refurbishment. Hence, we see the uplift in funding towards Bridge renovations as a positive, while see this to be offset by lower funding in transport and transit related categories. Sika is the most exposed with US Infra representing c.7% of Group (GSe).

Heavyside building materials – Neutral/Mixed:

  • Cement (EU – Buzzi, Heidelberg, Latam – CX) – Neutral: Cement in our view is relatively project agnostic between bridges and highways. Hence, we see neutral implications, with strong Bridge spend offset by lower transport funding and limited uplift in nominal highway spend.
  • Aggregates (EU – Heidelberg, Latam – CX) – Slight negative: Given only a small nominal funding increase for highways (key aggregate end-market), and expectations of continued pricing growth (c. +MSD) and inflation in the category, we believe levels of volume growth may be muted. While other spend categories of growth (Bridges) are less aggregate intensive.

The understanding here is that Build America 250 keeps federal infrastructure spending ongoing, but it should not be viewed as a new infrastructure supercycle.

Professional subscribers can read the full GS construction note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/10/2026 – 13:00