The Canadian dollar climbed against most of its Group-of-10 peers after President Trump delayed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods for three days, claiming on Truth Social that a trade deal was pending. The last-minute reprieve will ease trade tensions in North America.

“I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL! The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!” Trump wrote on Truth Social late Tuesday night.

The United States Trade Representative wrote on X, “The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners.”

Congratulations Mr. President. The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian… https://t.co/YSQ4rNmKAv

— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) August 19, 2026

A White House proclamation explained that the tariffs were suspended after Canada committed to removing discriminatory treatment across US automobiles, dairy products, and alcohol.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney released a statement offering a more cautious view and stopped short of confirming that a final deal had been reached.

“Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done,” Carney said in the statement. “While we continue this work, Canada remains focused on building a stronger, more independent, and more competitive economy at home.”

Analysts at Jefferies added more color: 

Trump says U.S., Canada have trade deal, pauses new tariffs for three days Globe and Mail reported that U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tentative trade deal with Canada and paused planned 50% tariffs for three days, less than two hours before they were due to take effect. 

Trump said the agreement remains subject to final documentation and did not disclose specific terms or confirm whether the tariffs would be permanently withdrawn. 

The announcement followed intense negotiations between Canadian and U.S. officials, including multiple discussions between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump. 

Sources indicated negotiators believed they had developed a proposal capable of resolving the impasse, but the final decision rested with political leaders. The threatened tariffs, under Section 338, would have applied to about US$20B of Canadian exports including electronics, dairy, alcohol and wood products. Talks also covered existing Section 232 tariffs on autos, metals and forest products. 

Reports suggest the U.S. may reduce, but not fully remove, some tariffs in exchange for Canadian concessions such as lifting provincial bans on U.S. alcohol and removing certain countertariffs. 

Key sticking points remained auto and lumber tariffs, with Canada seeking exemptions for North American auto content and provinces demanding meaningful lumber relief. 

The outcome represents a significant political test for Carney, who has balanced pressure to protect Canadian interests with business demands for greater trade stability.

Scotiabank’s Derek Holt provided his first take:

Great, there’s a possible deal. What’s in the deal? Dunno. Do I trust there is a deal because Trump said so? Not really. Do markets trust there is a deal? Not so much, as CAD only appreciated by about a quarter cent since Trump’s social media post last night, CGBs are flat, and so are TSX futures. All he did was to go TACO and postpone the 50% tariffs for three days just 1¾ hours before they were to have been applied against $20 billion of imports from Canada sans CUSMA exemption. Canada’s retaliation is similarly postponed. That’s a positive for now, since otherwise everything would have skidded off into the ditch, but the rest is still uncertain. 

What’s in the deal? Haven’t a clue. Is it good for both Canada and the US? Dunno. Trump’s post merely says the two countries have a deal while intimating that the Keystone XL pipeline is back on. We’ll see about that, given a guarded industry toward the pipeline that has moved on given the wild unpredictability of successive US administrations, the long project timelines and the varied competing interests. 

We also have this post from the USTR that claims “comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners.” We’ll be the judge of that, not the White House.

Canadian PM Carney’s post was much more measured. It noted that “substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done.” On that count, massive shout-outs to the Canadian team for working so tirelessly and on something so mindless as zero-sum beggar-thy-neighbour trade policies out of the US that divert precious management time by leaders and businesses away from more meaningful pursuits. You’ve served your country well so far.

And so we need details. What’s in the agreement, what are the enforcement mechanisms, what are the timelines for implementation, and of course, how exactly comprehensive is this? Is it a meaningfully comprehensive CUSMA extension, or just the opening salvo? How much did PM Carney give away from a salability standpoint at home? The provinces will need to be briefed and their reactions and cooperation will be important. And is Trump’s signature going to actually mean anything on this ‘deal’ given his pattern of not honouring much of what he commits to doing?

Throughout all of this I have stuck to a cautious optimist line that Canada would get a trade deal before the midterms or before the new US Congress convenes in January. The odds of this happening just went up. That has been part of a macro narrative for improved growth and modest tightening by the Bank of Canada as the case for last Fall’s insurance cuts to persist would be removed at a minimum. I hope that’s true, but I’ll jump on the ‘Let’s Make a Deal’ stage when I see something meaningful. Until then, post on to your heart’s content, we want details!! 

If a deal that extends CUSMA and lowers uncertainty in a meaningful way were to be achieved, then it would be positive for Canadian economic growth and negligible for US growth. It would buoy market and business sentiment toward Canada. It could put at ease consumer worries. 

And be wary toward the possible confirmation bias in gloomier quarters. I wouldn’t want talk to see some of the research gloomsters who were adopting a negative stance on trade and how damaging it could be to Canada’s economy and markets while making rate cuts more likely then turn around and say a deal doesn’t mean much. Nothing to see here. Don’t want to see it because it goes against all of their other views that deliberately excluded the cautious optimists. #accountability. The BoC wouldn’t dismiss a deal; amid multiple uncertainties, removing or materially dropping trade uncertainty would be another step toward modest tightening.

Trump’s announcement signals possible progress ahead of the review of the North American trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. The US and Canada traded $900 billion in goods and services last year. 

Futures are flat but off their lows as Tech gets a boost from a huge Hynix buyback, which erased ~8% decline to trade up as much as 2% and reversed a 5.8% drop in the Nikkei; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the green, with Nasdaq futures down 0.1% even as momentum looks to retrace some of yesterday’s losses. In premarket trading, Semis, Memory, and Mag7 are higher with Software and Low Profitable Tech weaker. Cyclicals and Defensives are both mixed as the market has not yet decided on direction. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp, following from yesterday with USD weaker. Commodities are bid with all 3 complexes moving higher. Brent crude rose 0.8% and briefly topped $92 barrel for the first time since July with little evidence of progress toward a resolution of the US-Iran war. Today’s macro focus is on the 20Y bond auction, which is likely to need a concession, and on the Fed Minutes where investors seek clarity on the Fed’s reaction function in a tape that lacks significant catalysts. NVDA and Jackson Hole loom large.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Amazon +0.2%, Nvidia +0.2%, Meta +0.1%, Microsoft -0.5%, Apple 0.0%, Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%)

• Estée Lauder (EL) climbs 7% after posting quarterly results that beat estimates. The company ended a run of three straight declines in annual revenue, a sign the beauty conglomerate’s turnaround efforts are gaining momentum.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) sinks 16% after the home-furniture maker gave a weaker than expected sales forecast for the current quarter.
• Mercury Systems (MRCY) falls 9% after the maker of display systems used in combat vehicles posted fiscal fourth quarter adj. EPS that came in a penny shy of expectations.
• Moderna (MRNA) soars as much as 100% after the company and Merck said their personalized cancer vaccine helped cut the recurrence of melanoma in a large, late-stage trial. Shares of Merck (MRK) are up 8%.
• Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) rises 2% as the company and Union Pacific Corp. can move forward with plans to create the nation’s first coast-to-coast freight network after a federal regulator decided to resume consideration of their joint application.
• SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) rise 3% after the South Korean memory-chip maker said it plans to buy back $29 billion of its own shares, in a bid to assuage investors concerns about AI spending durability.
• Target (TGT) slips 1% despite the retailer’s comparable sales and adjusted EPS topping expectations, while also getting a boost from tariff refunds. Shares have climbed 56% this year through Tuesday’s close.
• WhiteFiber (WYFI) falls 22% after the artificial intelligence infrastructure firm announced its intention to offer $250 million of convertible senior notes due 2032 in a private placement.

In other corporate news Novo Nordisk is testing small doses of its blockbuster Wegovy pill in a new study that will help establish how low patients can go in their dose and still lose weight. Anthropic plans to give Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei and other co-founders shares with extra voting power as the firm prepares to make its Wall Street debut, The Information reported. Cerebras Systems introduced a new speedier computer built with the company’s chips, saying the device will give it a wider advantage over Nvidia equipment. 

Fairly benign price action in early trading contrasts with Tuesday’s cash session, when stocks struggled for direction and long-dated bonds remained under pressure as higher oil prices kept traders cautious following days of yields at multiyear highs. As noted above, tech got a boost from Hynix buyback, announced just moments after the Kospi closed to get the biggest bang for the lack of liquidity buck, which erased a 8% plunge to trade up as much as 2%; the ADRs are +5.6% pre-mkt boosting both Memory and Korea ETFs. Moderna Inc. surged more than 100% after a positive result from its personalized cancer vaccine trial with Merck & Co. Momentum looks to retrace some of yesterday’s losses even as brent crude rose 0.8% and briefly topped $92 barrel for the first time since July with little evidence of progress toward a resolution of the US-Iran war. 

Longer-term bonds trimmed early gains as Brent approached $92 a barrel. The yield on 30-year Treasuries hovered around 5.27%, while rates for most European counterparts were little changed. Investors remained on guard as concerns over major governments’ loose fiscal policy and heavy borrowing by the biggest spenders on artificial intelligence are expected to keep yields elevated. The threat of sticky inflation also lingered as the US-Iran conflict continued to curb oil flows from the Middle East.

“The question is no longer whether higher yields matter, they clearly do, but whether the strength of earnings and capital expenditure implies that the economy can absorb them,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. On the other hand, the weakness in tech may be a sign that rising bond yields are starting to keep stock prices in check, he said.

The impact of growing demand for cash among AI hyperscalers was on display as Alphabet paid just under 7% to borrow longer-dated funds in its debut Australian bond offering, the company’s highest-ever yield on a note. The generous rate means some investors could be lured into buying bonds from tech titans rather than their stocks, according to Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany.

“AI stocks are increasingly in competition with their own bonds,” he said. “Yields close to multiyear highs in combination with a higher visibility of expected cash flows are making a compelling case for many investors.”

Meanwhile, as we have noted extensively, the lack of a clear path to a resolution in the Middle East is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Regional tensions intensified as the United Arab Emirates said it was cutting all economic ties with Iran after accusing the Islamic Republic of firing ballistic missiles at its territory.

Elsewhere, the Trump administration delayed 50% tariffs on Canadian products for three days, citing a tentative agreement to resolve a trade dispute. Trump is said to have chosen White House policy aide Heidi Overton to lead the FDA.

In politics, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon stormed to a surprise win in Florida’s US Senate primary against the man who concocted the Russia collusion hoax, Alex Vindman. Democrat Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan will advance in Alaska’s Senate primary, setting the state up to be one of the most fiercely contested races in November that could determine control of the US Senate.

Today, top of traders’ minds are a plethora of retail earnings, Fed minutes and the ongoing investor focus on AI. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, due later on Wednesday, may offer investors a better sense of the degree to which officials were losing patience with high inflation. Policymakers voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged. Money markets currently price around a 50% chance of a hike in October, with the odds of such a move rising to around 90% for December.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was little changed at 651.82, snapping a five-day stretch of losses after a tech-led selloff in Asia failed to carry over. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• FLSmidth shares gained as much as 10%, hitting their highest level since April, after the mining-equipment maker delivered earnings comfortably ahead of expectations
• Geberit rose as much as 8.6%, the most since November 2023, following second-quarter results which ZKB says showed “surprisingly strong” revenue momentum
• Ambea gained as much as 13%, the most since November 2024 and to a record high, after the Swedish healthcare group’s earnings beat estimates
• Implenia rose as much as 9.4%, the most since early March, as ZKB says the construction, civil and underground engineering services company’s results “turned out slightly better” than expected
• Sensirion shares rose as much as 8% after the Swiss sensor technology company raised its full-year guidance and drew analyst praise for its results
• Oxford Nanopore shares rose as much as 7.8%, the most in two months, after the British DNA-sequencing company reported a narrower adjusted Ebitda loss for the first half
• Ithaca Energy shares jumped as much as 7.4%, hitting a three-month high, after the oil and gas company delivered record quarterly production and raised its dividend guidance
• Straumann dropped as much as 9.1%, the most in a year, after the Swiss dental implant maker said Christopher Norbye would replace Guillaume Daniellot as CEO. Analysts at Bernstein and JPMorgan said Daniellot was “well-liked”
• Trainline shares fell as much as 17%, the most in five years, after the UK competition watchdog opened an investigation into whether the rail-booking platform breached consumer law through “drip pricing”
• Carlsberg shares fell as much as 4.1%, the most in five months, after the Danish brewer’s first-half volumes disappointed
• Smith & Nephew shares dropped as much as 3.8% to the lowest intraday level since May 12 after the medical devices maker said Chief Financial Officer John Rogers will leave his position at the end of next month
• BKW shares fell as much as 4.6% after the power company’s first-half Ebit dropped by a more-than-expected 15%

Asian stocks slumped, led by a selloff in chipmakers, as elevated bond yields and a stalemate in US-Iran peace talks kept investors cautious. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.3%, the most in three weeks, with chip heavyweights Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC among the biggest drags. Most major markets were in the red, with Korea’s Kospi sliding 5.8% and Japan’s Nikkei losing 3.2%. A Bloomberg gauge of Asian semiconductor stocks tumbled 3.7%. US-listed shares of SK Hynix climbed in pre-market trading after the firm unveiled plans to buy back 40 trillion won ($29 billion) of stock and return more of its profits to shareholders in an effort to calm worries about the durability of AI spending.

A number of consumer-focused reports due before the market opens include Target, Lowe’s, TJX and Estee Lauder. Placer.ai, directionally accurate in seven of prior eight periods, estimates Target’s adjusted revenue grew 4% year-on-year in fiscal second quarter, while Bloomberg Second Measure notes that observed sales through end July are tracking above industry growth rate. Earnings from Analog Devices are also on deck.

In rates, treasuries rose, giving bond investors some respite after a sharp rise in yields that began last Friday. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 2bp to 4.68%.Long-dated bonds lagged the rest of the curve; 30-year yields were little changed at 5.28%. Front and belly of the curve slightly is richer on the day with long-end lagging ahead of a $16 billion 20-year bond auction which remains on course to be offered at the highest yield since the sector was reintroduced back in May 2020. Gilts outperform in Europe as traders pared BOE tightening bets after UK headline CPI matched estimates. UK 10-year borrowing costs fall 2 bps to 5.07%. Bunds lag following a €3.769b 10-year auction at an average yield at highest level since 2011. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bonds, before a $8 billion 30-year TIPS sale on Thursday. The WI 20-year at around 5.27% sits ~11bp cheaper than the July stop-out and remains around 2.5bp cheaper than the October 2023 yield stop-out. IG dollar issuance slate includes an ADB 10-year benchmark offering. Three issuers priced $6.4 billion on Tuesday after at least seven issuers decided to stand down from announcing deals.

In commodities, WTI futures higher by around 1%, adding to underperformance of bunds vs. Treasuries, rising to highest levels in almost three weeks as a spat between the United Arab Emirates and Iran heightened regional tensions.

“Some of the recovery came from equities finally reacting to the level of yields, some likely from short-covering, and some from the market taking profit on what is now looking like a very crowded steepener,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, multi-asset strategist at Mizuho. Money markets price a 35% chance of a September Fed hike and 23bps of tightening by year-end.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% as traders continued to pare bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of minutes from the last policy meeting. The yen is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.3% against the greenback. The Aussie dollar underperforms. The Canadian dollar climbed against most of its Group-of-10 peers after US President Donald Trump delayed 50% tariffs for three days pending the finalization of a trade deal. USD/CAD dropped as much as 0.2% to 1.3872. In a social media post, President Donald Trump said he’s pausing the tariffs “based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!”. “The durability of CAD gains will depend on whether a formal agreement is reached within the three-day window,” Kristina Clifton, a senior strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a note to clients.

Today’s US economic data calendar includes FOMC minutes release from the July 29 meeting at 2pm New York. No Fed speakers scheduled for the session. earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s, and TJX

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are piling up without an American military response, raising the risks of crossing the strategic waterway and frustrating some Arab allies who worry the U.S. doesn’t have a strategy to wind down the conflict. WSJ
• Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to people close to the regime, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict. FT
• The UAE said it was cutting all economic ties with Tehran after accusing Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory. Oil rose with no signs of a peace deal. BBG
• Even as Iran projects resilience in the war with the United States, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment by Donald Trump could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. RTRS
• President Trump said he would pause a 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada for three days while the two countries seek to finalize an agreement. “I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three-day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” Trump said on social media Tuesday night. WSJ
• China will expand the use of a $1.6 trillion fund to boost housing-related spending, including renovations, under revised regulations taking effect next month. BBG
• SK Hynix will buy back and cancel 40 trillion won ($28.61 billion) of treasury shares and allocate ‌more than 50% of free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027 to boost shareholder returns, it said on Wednesday. The chipmaker’s shares plunged nearly 10% on Wednesday before trimming some losses in post-market trading. The shares hit record highs in June but have since declined, partly on investor concern over the durability of AI spending by U.S. technology companies. RTRS
• Target lifted its guidance after results outpaced estimates. Shares initially rose premarket before sliding around 4%, a sign that investors were expecting even stronger results. BBG
• Big pharma is increasingly licensing drugs developed in China. For US drugmakers, the expanding tie-ups means lower costs and more access to breakthrough treatments. For critics in Washington, the deals spell risk. BBG
• Global stocks are meaningfully net bought so far in August, driven almost entirely by US equities which have been net bought for three straight weeks. Notably, on a trailing 3-week basis in % terms, the recent buying in US equities is the largest since March 2020 and second largest in the past decade. Goldman Prime Brokerage 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the tech-led declines stateside, as yields remained elevated and oil continued to edge higher amid the ongoing geopolitical stalemate. ASX 200 retreated amid a deluge of earnings and with RBA Deputy Governor Hauser sticking to the hawkish script, while Australian wage data matched estimates and spurred little reaction. Nikkei 225 failed to benefit from stronger-than-expected Machinery Orders data and was pressured by the tech weakness, despite yields pulling back from multi-decade highs. KOSPI underperformed amid pressure in the tech heavyweights, while sentiment was also not helped by strained US-South Korea ties after US President Trump reduced the joint drills with South Korea and is said to be pushing for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim as soon as this fall. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were ultimately mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark kept afloat as participants digested earnings releases including from Baidu and Xiaomi, while the mainland conformed to the broad downbeat mood with notable losses seen in the ChiNext Nasdaq-style board.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Ministry of Defence is reportedly to request JPY 8.9tln spend in budget request, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese Machinery Orders (Jun MM) 9.7% vs. Exp. 7.8% (Prev. -12.4%).
• Japanese Machinery Orders (Jun YY) 16.9% vs. Exp. 10.8% (Prev. -1.9%).

European bourses are broadly lower, following on from the risk-off tone overnight as Asian chipmakers were weighed by the weakness stateside. Switzerland’s SMI outperforms, supported by Geberit, after it reported strong results. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Construction outperforms, with Energy and Retail rounding out the top 3 sectors. To the downside is Media, followed by Banks and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. The latter has been pressured by post-earning losses in Carlsberg (-3.7%) after its H1 EBIT missed consensus.

Top European News

• UK PM Burnham said No. 10 North will take over responsibility for economic growth from the Treasury as part of a transfer of power, according to The Times.

FX

• Focus on yields remain with the USD weaker against most G10 peers today as bonds stabilise around recent lows; the oil story is similar, Brent remaining above USD 90/bbl. Action this morning has been isolated to FX, USD weakness emerging against all peers without a clear driver, EUR/USD rising back above 1.16 while Cable breached 1.3550, DXY below 99.50, familiar levels in recent sessions. The summer conditions likely a factor in the news-absent moves, especially ahead of risk events 1) FOMC minutes, and 2) 20yr auction, both of which have increased focus amid 1) the lack of Fed Chair Warsh’s communication, 2) recent weakness in the long end and it being potentially the most expensive for the Treasury in 25 years. Ahead of this, STIRS are steady with the market assigning a c. 30% probability of Fed tightening in September.
• No major GBP move to UK CPI, which, in short, continues the narrative that the BoE is comfortable at 3.75% with data continuing to not surprise vs. market and BoE’s July MPR forecasts. The headline rise reflects the Ofgem price cap introduced this month, a point which was partially offset by a decent moderation in food inflation. Services moderated as expected, while ING notes the BoE’s core services measure of inflation has picked up a little to 3.8% Y/Y, which, while hotter, shouldn’t be too much to encourage those on the fence for tightening. In conjunction with the soft LFS on Tuesday, both show sufficient evidence to keep the BoE on hold for the rest of the year, with risks tilted both ways.
• JPY is the G10 outperformer, benefitting from a softer Buck as the pair looks to return towards 159.00 after nearing 160.00 in the previous few sessions. Macro catalysts were light, though strength seen in KRW could have given a helping hand also. USD/JPY marked a session low of 159.05, a little off this level at the time of writing.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, though yields ultimately remain near recent multi-year highs as concerns surrounding geopolitical/fiscal remain. Price action today has been fairly rangebound given the lack of pertinent newsflow. The geopolitical environment remains tense, with President Trump continuing to threaten Iran; recent Iranian sources have rejected the White House’s claim that there have been direct negotiations between Iran and the US.
• USTs (+2 ticks) currently holds towards the upper end of a 108-16 to 108-23 range. The docket is lacking for the remainder of the day, aside from the FOMC Minutes. It will be eyed to gauge hawkish sentiment among the wider FOMC, with markets currently leaning towards a hold in September. However, given recent soft US data, the Minutes could be looked through.
• Bunds (-10 ticks) are slightly lower this morning. EZ HICP Final metrics were unrevised, spurring little move. Thereafter, a poor German auction (high retention), also spurred little action in primary markets. The subdued outing is likely due to the ongoing summer lull, and as European banks taper their bond purchases as they approach their minimum reserve holdings.
• Gilts (+6 ticks) are outperforming this morning, taking lead from the region’s inflation report. Headline inflation rose from the prior (in-line with expectations), but much of the acceleration was attributed to Ofgem’s utility price hike. Dovish factors stem from a decent moderation in food inflation and cooling Services inflation (though mainly due to low air fares reading). Overall, the report will do little to shift the BoE away from its holding policy; ING expects the Bank to keep rates on hold for the remainder of the year, before delivering cuts in Spring 2027.
• Germany sells EUR 3.769bln vs exp. 6bln 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 1.10x), average yield 3.26% (prev. 3.13%), retention 37.2% (prev. 25.05%).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent October futures are higher for a fourth trading day, with Brent rising towards USD 92/bbl (vs low and WTI near USD 85/bbl (USD 84.36/bbl), as the US-Iran conflict showed no sign of resolution. Furthermore, weekly API data yesterday reported a modest draw in crude stockpiles. Elsewhere in energy, Dutch TTF is modestly softer and around an intraday low after gradually fading from levels above EUR 64.50/MWh to lows just above EUR 63/MWh. In shipping, China’s seaborne crude imports averaged around 6.8mln bpd in Aug 1-15 , vs ~7.3mln bpd in the same period in July, according to Vortexa. Tanker arrivals point to a pickup in the second half of August, though smaller than initially expected, leaving Chinese seaborne buying below pre-war levels for now.
• Precious metals are mixed and within tight ranges. Spot gold remains under its 100 DMA (USD 4,381/oz) in a narrow USD 4,325-4,363/oz range vs yesterday’s USD 4,329-4,436/oz range. Spot silver is conversely subdued in a USD 62.54-64.33/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s USD 66.56/oz low. Gold edged higher as easing US bond selling reduced pressure after Tuesday’s decline, though analysts note that uncertainty over US-Iran relations and higher energy-led inflation remain potential headwinds.
• Copper eased this morning towards the lower end of a tight USD 13,887-13,990/t. Reports note that the backwardation between immediate and three-month delivery eased to USD 248/ton (vs as much as USD 545 on Monday). Bloomberg notes that LME copper inventories available to buyers rose by more than 20,000 tons on Tuesday, the largest single-day jump since April, easing a historic supply squeeze; Trafigura was behind a significant share of the deliveries.
• US Private Weekly Inventory Data (bbls) Crude -0.3mln (prev. +9.1mln), Gasoline +1.1mln (prev. -1.5mln), Distillate -2.8mln (prev. -0.6mln), Cushing -1.4mln (prev. +0.4mln)
• ADNOC is reportedly aiming to trim the amount of crude sold to Asian customers in August and September, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posted “I have paused the 50% tariffs against Canada that was scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to finalization of documents, have reached a DEAL!”
• USTR Greer said the deal with Canada will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments and digital trade alignment.
• Canadian PM Carney said the US has agreed to postpone implementation of its 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the US Tariff Act of 1930 until the end of August 21st.

Central Banks

• RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said inflation is too high, adding that monetary policy needs to bring inflation down and needs to reduce demand in the economy. Hauser added that they are not seeing recession, but just a slowdown. Worried about inflation and upside risk to inflation and that if inflation doesn’t come down, will have to raise rates again.
• ECB’s Rehn said the wage growth and outlook remain moderate, there are no clear signs of second‑round effects and that keeping inflation expectations anchored is essential.
• Indonesia Central Bank leaves rates unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US President Trump told top administration envoys to halt their conversations with Iran, according to CNN citing a US official.
• US President Trump is waiting for Iran to cave to his economic pressure, but Tehran may be willing to wait even longer, according to Politico.
• A source close to Iran’s negotiating team said there had been no direct Iran-US negotiations and that talks with Oman concerned sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
• Iranian Deputy Chairman of the Parliament’s National Security Commission said “A ‘new passage’ in the Strait of Hormuz, other than the southern route, will soon be announced in the form of a joint statement with Oman.”
• Iran’s Foreign Minister said the framework of Tehran’s foreign policy will be based on a strong Iran, an Iran that is self-confident and in control of the situation.
• Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei dismissed UAE claims that Iran launched missiles, citing false flag operations in warning against ‘baseless’ accusations.
• Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe if US President Trump escalates the war, according to people close to the regime cited by FT.
• Yemeni Houthis have placed Saudi Aramco and all its facilities, oil tanks, crude transfer pipelines and export ports on their list of targets, Al-Akhbar sources said. The source added that the process of monitoring and tracking Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea is ongoing.
• UAE Foreign Ministry said all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice.
• UKMTO has received a report of an incident 40NM southeast of Al Mukha, Yemen. The cargo vessel was unmanned at the time of the incident, however the damage has resulted in a complete constructive loss.
• The Israeli PM Office said Israel and Syria have agreed to maintain the status quo on security matters, which Syria was about to violate by allowing Turkish forces to deploy at an air base near Aleppo.
• Syria’s petroleum company said an explosion occurred at the gas export pipeline at the Al-Jabsah gas plant, leading to a halt of pumping through the pipeline

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump is pushing for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as soon as this fall, according to WSJ citing US officials.
• US-South Korea joint military drills schedule is expected to be cut in half, according to South Korean media. It was later stated by a US Pentagon official that the US military substantially reduces exercise with South Korea and exercises will conclude one week early.
• North Korea denounced US-South Korea military drills and said exercise of its right to self-defence will continue to completely neutralise enemies’ military threat.

US Event Calendar

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Markets had another rough session over the last 24 hours, with equities hit by a sharp selloff in chip stocks, just as several countries’ bond yields hit multi-year highs. To be honest, there was little respite for investors anywhere, and with no sign of any US-Iran talks, oil prices saw a fresh move higher as well. So, it was a bad day for the most part, with the S&P 500 (-0.69%) posting a 3rd consecutive decline, whilst Germany’s 10yr bund yield (+3.7bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.26%. The main exception came from US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield (-1.8bps) falling back a bit. But even that was thanks to a weaker batch of US data, so it was hard to generate a positive narrative wherever you looked.

The bond selloff was the biggest story yesterday, as the relentless rise in yields showed no sign of easing. In part, that’s been driven by longer-term structural forces, including concerns around fiscal deficits and the AI boom. But near-term inflation concerns stepped up a gear yesterday, with 1-year US (+6.3bps) and Euro (+12.0bps) inflation swaps moving higher. That came as Brent crude (+0.17%) edged up to a 3-week high of $91.02/bbl, while European natural gas futures (+3.06%) also hit a 3-year high of €63.65/MWh. So that added to the pressure, particularly for European bonds more exposed to the energy shock. And that trend has continued overnight as well, with Brent crude up another +0.76% this morning to $91.71/bbl.

That backdrop saw yields hit fresh highs around the world, although Europe saw some of the biggest increases. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (+3.7bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.26%, 10yr OAT yields (+4.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.11%, and 10yr BTP yields (+6.0bps) hit a 2-year high of 4.07%. Otherwise, there were similar records at the 30yr horizon, with German 30yr yields (+2.4bps) at a post-2011 high of 3.77%, and France’s 30yr yield (+2.8bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.89%.

The main exception to this pattern yesterday were US Treasury yields, which initially looked set for new highs before falling back. That was thanks to a soft batch of US data, which cast fresh doubt on how rapidly the Fed could hike rates. That included data on housing starts, which fell to an annualised rate of 1.239m in July (vs. 1.345m expected). Meanwhile, industrial production only rose +0.2% in July (vs. +0.3% expected), whilst pending home sales were down -2.3% (vs. unch expected). So with all that now out, the Atlanta Fed cut their GDPNow estimate for Q3 to an annualised pace of +4.0%, down from +4.3% beforehand. And in turn, those releases helped Treasury yields to pull back again, with the 10yr yield (-1.8bps) ultimately closing slightly lower at 4.70%. Another test of demand for long-dated Treasuries will come with today’s 20yr auction, but yields have continued to fall overnight, with the 10yr yield down another -1.6bps this morning to 4.69%.

As all that was going on, there were still no signs of any negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, President Trump said in a post that “There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled” with Iran and that the US “Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect”. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf said that Hormuz would remain shut until the US meets conditions of the interim deal agreed in June, which include lifting the US blockade, removing oil sanctions, and unfreezing Iranian assets. So that led to growing pessimism that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon, and we saw oil prices move up throughout the futures curve. In fact, the 12-month Brent future (+0.38%) hit a 2-month high of $78.31/bbl, with fears about a protracted period of high oil prices adding to the pressure on bonds yesterday.

For equities, the stagflationary backdrop meant it was another difficult session, with fresh declines on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, that saw the S&P 500 (-0.69%) lose ground for a third consecutive session, with chip stocks as the biggest driver of the declines. In fact, the Philly semiconductor index (-4.98%) had its worst day of August so far. The NASDAQ (-1.33%) also underperformed, while the Mag-7 (-0.88%) was led lower by Meta (-4.42%). But the weakness was also broad-based, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 down -0.45%. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) posted a 5th consecutive decline for the first time in 2026 so far, alongside losses for the DAX (-0.80%) and the CAC 40 (-0.82%) as well.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a similar theme, with the selloff in chip stocks contributing to sizeable losses for the major indices. South Korea’s KOSPI (-5.44%) has seen the biggest declines this morning, but there’s also been sharp moves for the Nikkei (-2.85%), the CSI 300 (-2.41%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.96%). The main exception to that pattern has been the Hang Seng (+0.24%), with a modest advance. But equity futures are pointing to further declines today in the US and Europe, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) and the DAX (-0.17%) both moving lower.

In other news overnight, President Trump announced a 3-day pause on the 50% tariffs on Canada that had been scheduled. He said this was “based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” We don’t have the full details, but in a White House proclamation, it said that “Canada has expressed a commitment to remove the discriminations or unreasonable and unequal impositions” relating to US alcohol, dairy, and autos. Meanwhile on the Canadian side, Prime Minister Carney didn’t say there’d been a deal, but a statement from him said “Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done.” The announcement led to a small rally for the Canadian Dollar, which is up +0.13% against the US Dollar this morning.

Otherwise yesterday, UK gilts outperformed their European counterparts after the latest labour market data came in on the dovish side. It showed payrolled employees falling by -13k in July (vs. unch expected), whilst the unemployment rate was at 4.9% in the three months to June (vs. 4.8% expected). Moreover, private sector wage growth (ex bonuses) was only at +2.8% year-on-year in the three months to June, the slowest pace since 2020 during the pandemic. So 10yr gilt yields were only up +2.1bps on the day to 5.08%, a smaller increase than elsewhere.

In Germany, the latest ZEW Survey came in stronger than expected, with the expectations component rising to 34.2 in August (vs. 30.0 expected). That’s the highest level since February, before the Iran conflict began.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK CPI release for July. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting and hear from ECB President Lagarde. Finally, earnings releases include Target, Lowe’s, and TJX

Moderna’s shares soared as much as 83% in premarket trading in New York after its personalized cancer vaccine, developed in collaboration with Merck & Co., reduced the risk of melanoma returning in a large, late-stage trial. The result marks the first positive Phase 3 trial for a personalized cancer vaccine by any company. 

The study met its primary endpoint by showing that the cancer vaccine, called intismeran autogene, combined with Merck’s blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda, improved recurrence-free survival compared with Keytruda alone. The study also met a secondary endpoint by reducing the risk of cancer spreading to other parts of the body.

Professor Georgina Long, the study’s principal investigator, medical director of Melanoma Institute Australia, and chair of Melanoma Medical Oncology and Translational Research at the University of Sydney, wrote in a statement:

Today’s results represent a landmark moment for adjuvant melanoma treatment. This is the first Phase 3 study to show that intismeran, a treatment designed based on the unique mutational ‘fingerprint’ of a patient’s own tumor, given in combination with pembrolizumab, can reduce the risk of recurrence or death in patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma compared with KEYTRUDA alone.

Intismeran in combination with pembrolizumab has the potential to establish a new treatment paradigm in the adjuvant melanoma setting, helping patients remain cancer-free for longer.

Moderna and Merck did not disclose exact figures showing how much the therapy improved recurrence-free survival. The trial remains ongoing. Additional details will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting, and the vaccine could receive approval as early as 2027, depending on the regulatory review.

As of 0700 ET, Moderna shares were up 60% and trading around $100 per share. Short interest represents 13.5% of the float, equivalent to 49.8 million shares. Merck shares are up 7% in premarket as well. 

Melanoma is the most serious form of skin cancer. About 112,000 people are diagnosed annually in the US, and about 8,500 die from the disease, according to the American Cancer Society.

“Therapeutic vaccines have been something of a holy grail in cancer. People have been trying to do this for, you know, over 100 years in one way or another,” Jane Healy, head of oncology early development at Merck, said in an interview with Bloomberg several weeks ago. She noted that one potential benefit of the personalized shot would be to extend survival without significantly increasing side effects.

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

A Georgia man accused of wire fraud and money laundering appeared in a Los Angeles federal court on Monday after being deported by Fijian authorities to face the charges following his flight to the South Pacific island.

Prosecutors alleged the 59-year-old Edward Zimbardi, of Flowery Branch, Georgia, ran a Ponzi scheme that made more than $165 million from thousands of investors between June 2022 and August 2023.

An attorney for Zimbardi could not be reached.

U.S. Attorney Theodore S. Hertzberg, who described ponzi schemers as “parasites” the day of the Department of Justice announcement, detailed the allegations.

“Zimbardi allegedly tricked thousands of people to invest in his ‘Crypto Program’ with false promises of enormous returns,” Hertzberg said. “Instead, he spent the money on risky currency trades, payments to early investors, and treating himself to a house and expensive vehicles.“

When the scam was discovered, he allegedly tried to evade federal prosecution by fleeing to Fiji before he was found by authorities and returned, the prosecutor said.

Marlo Graham, special agent in charge of FBI Atlanta, noted that Zimbardi allegedly preyed on unsuspecting individuals through a complex scheme. FBI Atlanta is seeking victim information to aid the investigation.

“Scammers are trying everything they can to defraud people out of their hard-earned money, but the FBI is doing everything we can to make sure they don’t succeed, no matter where they hide,” Graham said.

According to the charges and information presented in court, Zimbardi allegedly promoted The Crypto Program through videos and websites, telling potential investors it was a chance to buy advertising packages that would deliver a guaranteed 25 percent monthly return.

Investors were advised to send cryptocurrency to digital wallets, which, prosecutors alleged, were secretly controlled by Zimbardi. Thousands of people sent more than $165 million his way.

Instead of advertising packages, Zimbardi allegedly put more than $34 million into risky foreign currency trades and lost a substantial portion of it. In order to keep the scheme running, he allegedly used money from later investors to pay earlier ones. He also allegedly spent at least $10 million on personal expenses, including a house for his son, luxury vehicles, and alimony payments to his ex-wife.

The program collapsed in August 2023, and victims lost their funds. Zimbardi then traveled to Hawaii, Fiji, and other places.

In July 2025, after learning of the FBI investigation, he fled to Fiji and stayed more than a year. In May, he canceled plans to attend his son’s wedding in Virginia, suspecting agents would attempt to arrest him there.

Fijian authorities deported him after learning of the charges in coordination with the FBI and the U.S. Department of State.

A federal grand jury had already indicted Zimbardi on July 8. The indictment charges him with 12 counts of wire fraud, 12 counts of money laundering, and one count of money laundering conspiracy.

Summary:

• Unitree Soars 460% in Shanghai IPO 
• Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index Plunges As IPO “Drew Funds Away” 
• Unitree IPO 5,550 Times Oversubscribed As UBS Says Grey Market Points To 3.5x Open

Unitree Robotics, one of the most closely watched technology IPOs in Shanghai this year, made its trading debut earlier Wednesday and closed up a staggering 460%. The Chinese humanoid robot maker raised 6.1 billion yuan, or about $904 million.

The Hangzhou-based company, formerly known as Yushu Technology Co., climbed as much as 629% from its IPO price of 150.80 yuan before paring some of those gains.

Retail bids for Unitree exceeded the 7.07 trillion yuan raised by memory chip giant CXMT in its July IPO. We pointed out yesterday, hours before the IPO, that the offering was more than 5,500 times oversubscribed.

Unitree plans to use the IPO proceeds to improve AI models, advance humanoid robot research, develop new products, and rapidly expand manufacturing capacity to maintain its lead in the physical AI race and expand market share. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma said, “Unitree’s debut surge signals strong appetite for China’s embodied AI sector,” adding that the IPO proceeds should accelerate product development and commercialization. 

Analysts at Industrial Securities commented on the broad market reaction across the space, saying, “Robotics stocks plunged as Unitree Robotics’ strong trading debut in Shanghai drew funds away.”

The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index (Bloomberg ticker: SOLCHRBP Index), which tracks publicly traded Chinese companies involved in the humanoid robotics supply chain, dropped 10% following the listing. The index is down 25% this year.

UBS analyst Lucy Zhang pointed out that the listing debuted amid an overall market selloff:

A-share tech names followed the US and broader Asia tech selloff, with the STAR50 down 6% amid elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market leadership rotated into defensive sectors, including banking, energy and coal.

Retail flows remained heavily concentrated in recent IPO speculation rather than broader market beta, with Unitree (#688836 CH) the focal point, trading around RMB885/share and up 486% from its IPO.

Extreme two-way price action suggests increasingly speculative trading conditions. Half-day turnover reached RMB1.63 trn, while market breadth was extremely weak, with 4,927 decliners vs. 580 advancers.

Coal stocks outperformed as a defensive haven amid the tech pullback, supported by planned coke price increases of RMB50-55 per tonne effective Aug. 20. Robotics names fell 7% as a group, with Unitree’s debut triggering a sell-the-news rotation across the sector.

Enthusiasm for Unitree has grown after the robot maker shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots last year, according to its prospectus. That makes the company the global leader in shipments of humanoid robots, far exceeding any US company. 

JPMorgan analysts have forecast that global shipments of humanoid robots will surge from 18,000 units in 2025 to 60,000 by the end of this year and to 1.75 million by 2030, with China accounting for more than half of global demand.

Readers should not be surprised that China is leading the humanoid-robotics race. We have outlined this trend on multiple occasions (see here).

Unitree IPO 5,550 Times Oversubscribed As UBS Says Grey Market Points To 3.5x Open 

The global market leader in humanoid-robot shipments, China-based Unitree, is set to begin trading on Shanghai’s STAR Market on Wednesday, potentially sparking a wave of robotics listings in Asia as the race for physical AI remains in its early innings. 

Unitree New Robot Preview: “Superman” Breaking the Limits of Humanity🥳
Standing high jump 2 m, top speed 12.66 m/s (0.85 m leg length)
Surpassing the standing high jump and running speed records of all humans around the world
This new machine has only been in development for a… pic.twitter.com/12i80ITU6p

— Unitree (@UnitreeRobotics) August 17, 2026

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Hangzhou-based company raised $900 million after pricing its shares at 150.80 yuan apiece, implying a valuation of about $9.1 billion. Retail demand was off the charts, with investors submitting 9.8 million orders and the offering more than 5,500 times oversubscribed. 

“Unitree’s IPO is significant because it provides an important A-share valuation benchmark for embodied AI and humanoid robotics,” Morningstar analyst Kangyuxiao Li said.

Jacqueline Du, Goldman’s head of China Industrial Technology research, recently explained that Unitree is the global market leader in humanoid-robot shipments: 

Global Market Leader: In 2025, Unitree shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots, capturing a 37% global market share, according to Omdia.

This volume far outstripped Western peers such as Tesla, Figure AI, and Agility Robotics, each of which shipped around 150 humanoid robots in 2025, according to public reports cited by Omdia.

That said, this leadership was achieved during the very early stages of the humanoid-robot industry, where technology is evolving rapidly and the competitive landscape remains fluid.

Wednesday’s IPO gives mainland investors direct exposure to one of China’s top robotics companies and could pave the way for future listings by its domestic competitors. 

UBS analyst Tony Chalmers noted:

Unitree is set for its first day of trading on the STAR Board on Aug. 19 at a CNY61 bn market cap, or 219x PS, with a free float of only ~30 mn shares, representing 7.4% of total shares. The grey market is pointing to a ~3.5x open.

The pre-IPO perpetual contract on the Hyperliquid platform – not Unitree stock or IPO allocation – is about $99.50 per contract; the market implies a Unitree valuation near $40 billion, based on roughly 404.5 million post-IPO shares. That is more than four times the reported $9.1 billion IPO valuation. 

In markets, the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index (Bloomberg ticker: SOLCHRBP Index), which tracks publicly traded Chinese companies involved in the humanoid-robotics supply chain, is down 18% year to date.

SOLCHRBP covers robot manufacturers and suppliers of AI systems, actuators, motion controls, sensors, automation equipment, and other components. 

Goldman’s Du highlighted how Unitree’s pricing advantage is mostly underpinned by “China’s supply-chain advantages.” Unitree offers robots priced from roughly $4,000 to $100,000, compared with about $150,000 to $1 million for Boston Dynamics models.

Unitree founders understood something the US robotics industry did not.

A robot engineers can afford to buy, break, modify, and buy again can create a much larger market than a perfect robot nobody can afford and people watch videos of online.

So Unitree shipped “Laikago” in… pic.twitter.com/GxHElhuOKG

— Gabriel (@gabriel_horwitz) August 18, 2026

Readers should not be surprised that China is leading the humanoid-robotics race. We have outlined this trend on multiple occasions (see here).

The U.S. invented the robot dog.

China is about to dominate the market.

Tomorrow Unitree starts trading at a $9bn valuation after selling 23,000 quadrupeds last year. We had a 15-year head start.

This is how America turned a research lead into a manufacturing loss…🧵 pic.twitter.com/lTBtmWmTv4

— Gabriel (@gabriel_horwitz) August 18, 2026

The big question is whether President Trump can close the gap, given that the US lacks the fully integrated supply chains needed to manufacture critical components, including rare-earth magnets and actuators that power these robots.

Brent at $90.94 looks almost civilized. Jeff Currie thinks that is exactly the problem: everyone is staring at crude while the real energy shock is already showing up in the fuels people actually buy.

As OilPrice reports, “Nobody on the planet earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier.

European diesel was trading around $170 per barrel during the interview, Currie said, almost twice Brent’s current $90.94. WTI was trading at $84.94 Tuesday.

Historically, crude and refined-product prices moved closely enough that crude served as a reasonable shorthand for the broader energy market. Currie says that relationship has broken down.

Part of the disconnect came from roughly 100 million to 120 million barrels of crude trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz following a surge in supplies in late June and early July. China then cut refinery runs, which helped keep crude prices softer but made product supplies tighter.

In other words, China did not solve the shortage. It moved it downstream.

Currie also argues governments have spent decades creating an “illusion of abundance” during supply disruptions by releasing strategic reserves and talking markets down. That strategy has worked before. This disruption, he said, is different because of its scale, duration, and the increasingly tight product market.

The inflation implications are considerably less academic. CNBC noted that gasoline prices are about 30% higher than a year ago, while diesel is up 46%. Diesel feeds directly into trucking, shipping and industrial costs.

Currie expects the crude-product dislocation to eventually correct as refiners chase historically high margins and increase runs.

Until then, $91 Brent may be giving investors a comforting picture of an oil market that consumers stopped living in weeks ago.

Authored by Brad Todd via The What For Substack,

We bought our house in the same year I discovered Piemonte, and that was fortuitous. The house came with a walk-in wine cellar and the family-owned vineyards strewn across the rolling Italian hills from LaMorra to Serralunga D’Alba provided a learnable collection of producers to fill it up. It is a good thing I have enjoyed the chore of curating this wine because I will not get to enjoy drinking it.

This afternoon, maybe even as you read this, I will be in a long surgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital to remove a nasty high-grade malignant tumor from my ethmoid sinus. It is a distant cousin of the cancer blob I had cut out in 2020, after an unnecessary Covid test speared loose a hunk of tumor I did not know was there. The pandemic saved my life once, and it put me in contact with the crackerjack medical team at the world’s best otolaryngology unit that will save it again.

Sinus tumors are rare – though I prefer the term “exceptional” as only hundreds of people a year battle these bastards. After what will be a rough post-surgery recovery, I will get radiation and maybe a lagniappe of chemotherapy. But I will not be savoring my amazing Italian wine collection. After my 2020 surgery, I lost my sense of smell for about six months, and my taste overall for a little less than that. My olfactory receptors were removed from my left nostril, but I started with a bloodhound’s nose so half of that was plenty to keep. Wine was still complex and wonderful as soon as I recovered from that surgery’s trauma. But not this time, not with this surgical plan.

The question I am asking, and also suggesting for you, is what other wine did I store and not drink?

What other wine can I drink when this is all done?

Before I knew cancer was back, I had a conversation last month with someone about getting over it the first time. I told her, as I have often said, “you cannot un-hear that your body is trying to kill you.” She immediately asked me: “what did you change?”

I gave two answers, one applied to work and one to home.

First, I said cancer made me adopt a professional policy of only giving the same good advice twice. The younger version of me would lay awake at night grinding on how I might get clients over the hump on a strategic decision they were resisting. Cancer in 2020 made me a more disciplined advisor. Sen. Dave McCormick, whose winning campaign I helped guide in 2024, often says he is glad he “got the post-cancer Brad.” As a former CEO and Army officer who has made a career of perfecting leadership, he could see that I had developed perspective on how to sit on a running horse, in jockey terms, and dig in my heels only, and exactly, when it was critical.

On the personal side, I told my friend that enduring cancer in 2020 made me put my kids’ big moments at the top of my priority list. The first time I left the house after surgery, too early of course, was to coach my daughter’s rec softball team. It was excruciating and exhilarating at the same time. Then, over her four years in high school, I missed exactly one re-scheduled, rained-out prep game to my knowledge, and I have yet to miss my son playing football – though this Friday night’s scrimmage is in doubt. There was one freshman baseball game, with one at-bat, up Interstate 270 at rush-hour that I could not reach. I made it to the recitals, the voice contests, the awards ceremonies, the parent chapels and school plays. I made them all, save one where she had just four lines. I skipped work meetings that were billed as essential. I rebooked CNN hits. I even ducked out on TV commercial shoots when I could not schedule them around the ball games and plays. I kept the main thing the main thing, and still do. Thank goodness cancer found me right before my kids hit the high school phase of important activities instead of finding me afterward, because I could have easily screwed this up based on my prior professional trajectory.

But I did still store up the wine.

My collection is mostly Barolo, the King of Italian wine, though there are some Barbaresco bottles, some California strays, and a handful of cheap but complicated Sagrantino vintages from Umbria that few Americans have discovered yet. I got hooked on single-cru wines, meaning they are made with grapes grown on the same small patch of ground, with the same sunlight. Over time I have listed toward the steeper crus that surround the village of Serralunga D’Alba, deciding that the Prapo cru is the best, though the higher-elevation Monvigliero cru is also a charm and Lazzarito a treat.

I have long-ish Barolo verticals by G.D. Vajra, my favorite producer, in the delicate Bricco Delle Viole and the easy-drinking Ravera crus, bottles of which I bought my surgeon and his assistant the week after my 2020 tumor resection, with a promise we would all drink them simultaneously when I hit the five-year-all-clear mark that cancer patients universally point toward.

That celebration happened last fall, and statistically speaking, I should not be fighting the same tumor in Year Six. But tumors do not keep calendars. Now I must undergo a medical path that will certainly obliterate my ability to savor Italian wine but save my life in the process. It is a fair trade that I am willing to make.

The imminent loss of my ability to appreciate this stored asset is making me contemplate what else I under-savored over the last six years.

One thing is vacations. Our family did not take one this year; we just did not carve out the time. My wife and I also punted our 25th Anniversary trip for the third year in a row. We now intend to take it in December after radiation, paired up with a speech I am giving. But I am a little ticked off we have not done it three times, instead of skipping it three times. Early in our marriage we took a great anniversary weekend every year and they are life highlights for me; we are highly compatible in travel habits and those trips bring out our beautiful integration. We fly by the seat of our pants, having the same high tolerance for uncertainty. We once went to Europe with exactly nothing planned for the last half of our itinerary until after we were on the continent. The resulting spontaneous side trip to Chamonix, hiking and then sitting poolside staring up at Mont Blanc with no agenda, was the unexpected dead-stop recharge we needed.

After this current crap is over, she and I will take more trips. Spending time with her, doing whatever she wants, has to be elevated as an aspiration on my post-cancer agenda. We have spent 19 years doing a darn good job of child-rearing together and I think the post-parenting phase of “us” also will rock.

I also intend to read more books. Substack has been a great addition to my life because it took over some of my X doom scrolling, but it also has been a parasite sucking away time I formerly devoted to literature. That needs to be rectified, as I am only halfway through Cormac McCarthy’s library and that is unacceptable progress for a 56-year-old East Tennessean. Reading books overall has cratered in our society, so I am not alone in that, but I can do my part.

I volunteered more after cancer for charity and church initiatives I care about – but some of that may be attributable to aging as much as surviving. All of us should inventory our give-back quotient as we hit our peak executive years when we can do the most good. Stacking cans at the food bank is great but coming up with a plan to get weekly milk deliveries is more impactful.

Showing up has always been a good trait of mine – friends’ funerals, moving days, performances have always hit my calendar – but I will probably up my percentage closer to 100 after this. Church services in general have been a bigger deal in my life since 2020 – my faith did not need an accelerant, but my worship discipline did. I recommend it. Cancer probably made me a little bolder in publicly professing my own faith – or a little less self-conscious about acknowledging it, even if it was live on CNN. I recommend that, too, and I predict I will be even more uninhibited now.

Live music is something I probably did not expect to elevate based on a medical diagnosis, but it will happen this time. Some of the highlights of my middle age have been great concerts. A show on a New York City rooftop this summer with my wife and kids and the Turnpike Troubadours, my favorite band, was the single best two hours of 2026 for me. The next Turnpike show in Richmond in October should coincide with commencement of my radiation and I hope to make that happen. Since my musical daughter loves shows too, and my son and I share a genre taste, I will pro-actively put big shows in concrete on the calendar, even if we must travel to get there.

The next few days will be a rough ride after at least seven hours of surgery – followed by a couple miserable weeks on the couch with my face full of surgical packing as I taper pain meds. I will binge shows on all the streaming platforms and grumble that college football is not yet here while staring down my fat but snuggly dog. Together, he and I will make a longer mental list of things I intend to do with the next, hopefully long, tranche of borrowed time God has given me.

You can make that kind of list, too, without the anesthesia and face-packing I will get, as all of us are on borrowed tranches of God-given time whether we learn that from a radiologist or not.

Drink the wine.

Make the game.

See the show.

Tell the people you love that you love them, out loud.

Pray a little more – and throw in a prayer for your favorite columnist.

An obvious pattern is emerging.  Multiple Democrat officials have been arrested and charged with fraud or related federal crimes over the past two years and the trend seems to be growing.  Democrat politicians and DNC members are over-represented when it comes to fraud and it’s starting to look like the entire party has been pilfering the cookie jar for quite some time.

In the latest incident, Lawrence, MA Mayor Brian DePeña faces federal charges for allegedly using Covid-19 relief money meant for his tire business to fund his political campaign and pay personal debts, according to court documents.  His charges include: Wire fraud; aiding and abetting, and unlawful monetary transactions; aiding and abetting.

Records indicate that an arrest warrant was issued Thursday. City Council President Jeovanny Rodriguez confirmed DePeña was arrested Friday.  Neighbors described FBI agents shouting through a bullhorn outside the mayor’s home early in the morning and using a battering ram to force open his door. 

This incident has developed right as another official, Former New Mexico Democrat House leader Sheryl Williams Stapleton, has just been convicted of 31 felony charges for diverting millions of dollars of school funds to her friend’s company while receiving kickbacks.

After the exposure of migrant fraud in Wisconsin and California linked to Democrat and left-wing NGO operations, it surprises no one that politics is one big criminal enterprise, for Democrats in particular.  Republican officials are not free from such charges; a handful of mostly low profile cases have occurred since 2024.  That said, when Democrats go for fraud, they go big, and many of these cases involve the misappropriation of covid relief funds.

In other words, the pandemic was a money-making bonanza for Dems, and a lot of this money was used to pay for campaign operations.

U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (Democrat, Florida) was arrested in November of last year and charged with 15 federal counts, including theft of government funds related to allegedly stealing approximately $5 million in FEMA disaster relief for the Covid crisis. 

Prosecutors say the money had been overpaid to her family’s health-care company (Trinity Healthcare Services), which held a contract to register people for Covid-19 vaccinations. Within two months of receiving the funds, more than $100,000 was allegedly spent on personal items, including a diamond ring for the congresswoman.  She also allegedly pumped millions into her own campaign operations.

It’s not unfair to suggest that Democrats may have believed they were going to retain political power for years to come (many Americans view the covid event as an engineered coup).  Unfortunately for them, the Biden regime did not stay in office or destroy conservative opposition, so now they are under a microscope.  And, under the light of scrutiny, the ugly deeds of 2021-2024 are being exposed.

Authored by Nikolai G. Wenzel via The Daily Economy,

Fusionism, a new book by Stephanie Slade, a Senior Editor at Reason, attempts to make sense of the seemingly incoherent New Right. Although Slade proposes a renewal of fusionism as a remedy to conservatism’s drift and the challenges facing a divided Republic, the book’s greatest strength lies in its analysis of the trends to date.

The Republican Party, for all its faults, was supposed to understand (instinctively, if not always intellectually) limited government, rule of law, and the basics of economics. From its elected leaders, though, we have gotten tariffs, increased public debt, dodgy respect for habeas corpus in immigration enforcement, and the Saturday Night Live tragicomedy of DOGE (a virtue-signaling, clumsy, and cruel flash in the pan destined to die on the vine when it removed entitlements from the chopping block). The coalition that constitutes the New Right has abandoned conservatism, and instead sells its own form of populist interventionism.

Slade starts by painting a rather glum sketch of the contemporary scene. Within the convoluted and heterogeneous mess she labels “the Dissident Right,” she identifies three major strains:

1. the predominant national conservatives, who are eager to use the coercive power of the modern administrative state to advance (allegedly) conservative causes and push for national primacy;
2. the theocons, who dream of “immanentizing the eschaton” by creating a state theocracy to impose (their understanding of) a transcendent moral order;
3. the neoreactionaries, the Pajama-Boy Nitzscheans who have been given legitimacy to spew their blend of vitriol and conspiracy.

The NatCons have turned their back on the basics of markets and skepticism about administrative power (how sad in this 250th anniversary year of The Wealth of Nations!). The theocons would repoliticize salvation after three centuries of religious tolerance within Christendom. And, beneath all that, the country’s baser instincts toward power and suppression are flourishing within the neoreactionary right. On the other side, the interventionist excesses of American socialism, with DEI, cancel culture, and continued growth of the administrative-welfare state, are equally horrifying. To paraphrase Richard Nixon, we are all interventionists now.

The titular Fusionism is shorthand for the collaboration of old-school conservatives and libertarians that held in America from 1945 to 1989, or thereabouts. Members of that alliance disagreed on details, but shared a horror for the rise of collectivism, the welfare-administrative state, and the existential threat of communism.

Slade’s personal history of the movement is a rich and readable complement to some of the deeper treatments of the ideas (notably George Carey’s magisterial compendium, Freedom and Virtue: The Conservative/Libertarian Debate, and my own work with Nathan Schlueter of Hillsdale College, Selfish Libertarians and Socialist Conservatives? The Foundations of the Libertarian-Conservative Debate). Slade’s arguments are clean and incisive, and the prose is a pleasure to read, even if Slade occasionally indulges in the journalist’s déformation professionnelle of descriptive wordiness.

Slade points to several explanations for the rise of the Dissident Right: the failed gamble of China’s accession to the WTO without subsequent human rights improvements, the post-2007 bank bailouts, the costly debacle of attempted nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan, immigration, those left behind by globalization, and the authoritarianism of DEI.

These are all plausible. But I suspect that Slade is a bit too kind: the American administrative-welfare state is the real villain in this story. First, because it caused most of the problems that have energized the Dissident Right (crowding out of civil society, a culture of dependence, and erosion of the family). Second, because income inequality in the US is associated with cronyism replacing genuine economic activity – a problem exacerbated by the gutting of K-12 and college education standards by educrats, along with the rise of regressive regulation, including job licensing. Third, because the Dissident Right doesn’t see the irony: its proposed use of the state is exactly what generated the outcomes it decries.

In just half a century, the US shifted from teaching Latin and calculus in high school to teaching basic English and algebra in college. It took a mere generation for discourse to collapse from Ronald Reagan’s gentlemanly and beautiful oratory to Donald Trump’s boorish grade-school-level word salad. What happened, in discourse and substance, between 1989 and 2016? Slade points to the populist conservative Pat Buchanan, but we could also mention Dick Cheney; the vice president was more refined, but also a lot more effective at pushing the power of the unitary executive and expanding the administrative state. There have always been “proto-Dissident Right” voices in America, Slade argues, but they were once kept in check by a loose coalition of libertarians, decent folk, fusionist conservatives, and the communist threat. The pre-1968 Dixiecrat segregationists, the Evangelical Christian Right under Reagan, Pat Buchanan, Dick Cheney and the more radical neocons under George W. Bush were always there. But there was always accountability, restraint, and public decency.

President Trump is tapping into real ills and soul sicknesses in American society and the American economy; but he is doing so in an ugly way that appeals to the lowest common denominator. Even FDR, Huey Long, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, for all their interventionist instincts and actions and their loose interpretations of the Constitution, operated under a veneer of respectability, and showed some shame when they got caught with their pants down.

Slade proposes a renaissance of fusionism as an antidote to the Dissident Right, in a bid to save both the Republic and the Spirit of ’76. She reminds us that political analysis will require new language. In a similar spirit, I have long argued that the left-right taxonomy once made sense – in post-1789 France, where the left represented the Jacobin radicals like Robespierre, the centrists were today’s classical liberals, and the right favored a return of the monarchy. But the Dissident Right is a misnomer. This modern movement Slade names does not align with the American conservative tradition, and is thus not clearly of “the Right.” Even if it seeks nativist or religious or other allegedly conservative goals, it does so by promoting an increasingly intrusive and muscular central government.

How little we have progressed since 1944, when F.A. Hayek dedicated The Road to Serfdom to “the socialists of all parties.”

Today’s classical liberals are, indeed, alone in a two-front war. The paternalistic Left and the Dissident Right both aggressively push for social and economic control. Liberty, limited government, and free markets have few defenders. Fusionism is an appealing alliance, as Slade proposes it. But who will be the fusionist warriors for individual liberty? Where are the moderates to defend private property? Where have all the pro-business, small-government, free-trade conservatives gone? We can hope that there is a Nockian Remnant out there, biding its time while the dissident storm passes. In the meantime, the libertarian wing of fusionism stands alone, as core agreements have largely been abandoned by those who still call themselves conservatives, but now need hyphenations to distinguish conservatism from their preferred flavor of interventionism.

Nikolai G. Wenzel is Professor of Economics at Universidad de las Hespérides and Associate Research Faculty Member of the American Institute for Economic Research. He is a research fellow of the Institut Economique Molinari (Paris, France) and a member of the Mont Pelerin Society.

An illegal immigrant found not guilty by reason of insanity in a 2019 killing managed to flee the United States on a one-way flight to his native Tajikistan while on an approved 48-hour pass from a state mental health facility.

Now a Soros-backed prosecutor is under fire for his pattern of pursuing insanity pleas for violent offenders who are illegal immigrants.

Steve Descano, commonwealth’s attorney for Fairfax County, Va., speaks at an event at the Center for American Progress about Virginia’s newly elected progressive prosecutors. (Getty Images)

In 2022, a court committed Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda after finding him not guilty by reason of insanity in the 2019 killing of his landlord, Mohammad Hemmatian, in Vienna, Virginia. Officers who reached the scene found him covered in Hemmatian’s blood. He told them, “I am guilty.” Investigators believed Islam-inspired attitudes drove the violence.

Toshpulodzoda left the Northern Virginia Mental Health Institute (NVMHI) in Falls Church on July 6 under an unaccompanied 48-hour pass, a privilege allowed under Virginia law for certain committed patients. Instead of returning, boarded a Turkish Airlines flight at Washington’s Dulles International Airport to Istanbul, and continued to Dushanbe, Tajikistan, according to airline records attached to court filings.

The escape came mere days after a Fairfax County judge ruled that Toshpulodzoda still needed hospitalization. “On June 29, 2026, this Court found that the Acquittee remained mentally ill and in need of inpatient hospitalization,” court documents state. 

This was not the first time authorities let Toshpulodzoda move outside a locked ward without an escort. He traveled to Washington, D.C., in 2024 to obtain a passport, and the Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney’s Office, led by Steve Descano, supported the trip. 

NVMHI placed Toshpulodzoda on escape status once he missed the deadline, revoked his pass, and issued a facility warrant. Virginia State Police, federal authorities, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection all received notice of the case, and CBP issued an alert in case he tries to reenter the country. 

“Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda was found by clinicians to be insane at the time he killed Mohammad Hemmatian – a legal finding that means the Commonwealth would be unable to secure a conviction at trial,” the Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney’s office said in a statement. The office said prosecutors have opposed his release at every annual review hearing, including in June, and that a bench warrant went out the moment they learned he had escaped custody, adding that he “will be arrested and brought to Virginia” if he reenters the country. The Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney’s office, NVMHI, and Turkish Airlines did not respond to requests for comment.

Descano has been in office since 2020. His campaign received funding from left-wing megadonor George Soros. His office has pursued insanity agreements for 13 accused murderers claiming they were unfit for trial, and Descano himself has managed to survive two recall efforts over his criminal justice record.

 Toshpulodzoda’s case fits a pattern the group has flagged for years: violent defendants, including illegal immigrants, funneled toward insanity findings that keep them off the felony docket and, evidently, sometimes off the continent entirely. The group posted on social media Monday, “Across Virginia, ONLY 50 killers got insanity pleas nowhere else gave more than two.” Virginians for Safe Communities said of Descano, “They aren’t crazy, he’s just lazy.”

A spokesperson for Descano’s office told the Washington Examiner that independent evaluators declared Toshpulodzoda mentally ill and left prosecutors no legal path to a conviction, an explanation the office has given in prior cases. “To be found legally insane, both a defense expert and a separate, independent expert for the prosecution evaluate the defendant,” the spokesperson said. “If the Commonwealth’s expert finds the defendant to be legally insane, there is functionally no way to get a conviction at trial.” The spokesperson said a prosecutor’s role narrows to annual review hearings once such a finding is entered, and noted that, in Toshpulodzoda’s case specifically, prosecutors repeatedly asked that he remain confined due to community safety concerns, including as recently as June.

Toshpulodzoda’s disappearance is not an outlier for Descano’s office. Seven months earlier, a Fairfax County court declared another accused killer, Joshua Danehower, legally insane under an agreement with Descano’s team. Danehower fatally shot a charity CEO in his own home in 2022 after he grew obsessed with the CEO’s wife and drafted written plans to break into the house, according to police. 

Descano’s poor prosecutorial discretion record has attracted the attention of the Justice Department, which announced an investigation in May into whether Descano gives “preferential treatment” to illegal immigrants in prosecutorial decisions.