By Michael Every of Rabobank

Unless things change dramatically, the Middle East seems set for massive escalation.

President Trump yesterday warned every missile, rocket, or drone Iran fires at ships in Hormuz will be met with the destruction of an Iranian bridge or power plant.

This morning, the IRGC says a tanker is on fire after an explosion in the strait and Kuwait is under drone attack. Moreover, the Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, raising the risks of a new global energy chokepoint besides Hormuz.

Reports say the US is surging military forces to the region, heavy bombers are being prepared, and Mossad is coordinating with the CIA. Equally, Iran’s Ghalibaf has stated there will be no safety if Iran’s security is not guaranteed, read as more or less a declaration of war against the entire region’s infrastructure and energy should its own be hit.

Worse, Iranian strikes on CIA Middle-East facilities are prompting US questions about Russian involvement, which would conflate the war more deeply with Russia-Ukraine, where epic damage to Russian energy, shipping, and logistics infrastructure continues to mount. On that note, after Kazakhstan was forced to stop piping oil via the Black Sea due Ukraine’s drone attacks, the EU is launching a mission to board Russian shadow fleet ships in the Indian Ocean; however, Russian LNG is to remain exempt from EU sanctions – realpolitik or real weakness?

In the Middle East, the UK is evacuating its remaining diplomatic personnel from Iran, just as it did the day before the Iran war started in February, but Bulgaria is aiding US military operations from its territory. That could potentially make it a target for Iranian reprisals – and it’s a NATO and EU member, each with collective defense clauses.

If we see military escalation, it’s likely to drive energy prices even higher than the $95.5 level Brent was at this morning with benchmark crack spreads at $68. However, it’s unlikely to last long. Neither the US nor Israel, nor Iran, nor the GCC can sustain a no-holds-barred war for long – and the world economy obviously can’t either. As such, we may be close to the beginning of the end of this crisis – it’s just unclear if it will prove a bridge too far for the US or Iran.

Meanwhile, the White House is considering military options in Mali, where the Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM are advancing on the capital. That risks further US overstretch. Then again, after the former imperial power France and arrivistes Russia both got a bloody nose in the country, it doesn’t look like anyone else is going to act against these jihadis – certainly not Europe, though Mali uses the West African CFA franc that is pegged to the Euro. Of course, Mali is also rich in resources.

As climactic in geoeconomics —but likely to last much longer than events in the Middle East— yesterday saw Financial Times editor Martin Wolf ask, “Who will win the war of neo-mercantilists?”, making clear, “We are living in a mercantilist era.” We aren’t, because we don’t all want to hoard gold (yet) so it’s a neo-mercantilism that wants national-security trade surpluses – but he’s close enough. Likewise, Stephen Roach today asks in the same paper, “How long can China defy history and logic with its imbalances?” and argues, “The country is demanding far too much of a world fixated on cheap consumer goods.”

This looks a Damascene conversion for a media source that long rejected that a now undeniable reality we’ve been arguing for since 2015, along with every Western policy step that could have prevented its emergence, while instead cheering everything that accelerated its arrival.

Yet will the Establishment financial press now offer analysis that adapts to a new old world?

It seems unlikely looking at the Bloomberg response to Trump’s planned 100% generic drug tariffs with a two-year delay: “But prices will go up!” Really? Such drugs have a low labor input; shipping them in from abroad costs a lot; and this overlooks the national-security argument – a Great Power cannot be reliant on others for key medicines, among other things. (Plus, the EU says its generic exports to the US are protected by last year’s EU-US trade deal.)

In short, even the FT is now implying that if you use the terms “economic statecraft” or “neo-mercantilism,” yet default to “But prices will go up!” when they are in action, then you don’t understand either – nor that those making decisions in the US, China, and elsewhere do.

The looming implications of this are potentially explosive, and already evident:

• The US Congress is again exploring tariffs and/or sanctions to counter China’s shipbuilding dominance; the USTR says the US isn’t getting the critical minerals from China it had been promised; Boeing has asked the US to intervene over a record EU loan to Airbus; and Mercedes risks a US sales ban under Senate China bill that penalises Chinese ownership and tech, which the German car-marker had happily embraced even with that threat overhanging it.
• EU tariffs on China have accelerated Korean tire makers’ exit from the country: imagine what broader EU tariffs might achieve (beyond “But prices will go up!”) “Voila! l’art de gouverner par l’économie!” – indeed, many of the early neo-mercantilists were Europeans. That said, a report calls the bloc’s 2040 target to double its electrification an “unattainable dreamland.”
• Nvidia’s CEO unsurprisingly defended Chinese AIs that might use lots of his chips; Axios reports that an OpenAI AI models “went rogue during testing.”; and AI-driven soaring memory chips costs are forcing others, such as Asian carmakers, to consider price hikes.
• In markets, where this all ultimately ends up, the White House is still looking at the Fed. Bloomberg reports Barr may be ousted over her conduct during the SVB bailout. That could open the door for another pro-Trump voice on the FOMC, as a legal sword still hangs over Cook’s tenure and a recent Supreme Court ruling has opened the door to even more sweeping changes.

More mundane, today saw Aussie jobs data at 76.3K, which is the equivalent of a US payrolls print of 1,000K. That’s after news that the limp economy is seeing the worst per capita income trend since WW1. What, beyond bad data, could allow that staggering divergence? Expect more questions about political economy to erupt – and more resistance from the usual crowd.

To conclude, are Hormuz and the Red Sea a bridge too far for the US or Iran? Is the emergence of neo-mercantilism a bridge too far for traditional macro-commentary (or macro-ideology)? Is the Fed a bridge too far for the White House? All three are linked: we have to wait for the outcomes.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is “begging for a deal” and “they need to come to their senses,” adding that Tehran will “pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing.” 

Speaking on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Manila, he claimed that “Iran is begging us, both directly and indirectly, ‘Let’s do a deal. Let’s talk.'” But the reality remains that there’s no public indicators showing this; instead, the Iranians have pretty aggressively sought to enforce their red lines, this week attacking a series of international ships in the Hormuz Strait.

Rubio tried to blame an alleged fracturing of the Iranian government, and a takeover by the ‘hardline’ faction of leadership. “The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people in charge either break it or they want to change it. So it looks like they’re not ready to make a deal, so they’re going to continue to pay a price, and every night the price gets higher and higher,” he asserted.

Rubio then characterized Iran and its policies as “run by radical clerics” – calling them “oblivious” to its economic problems. In the background is the fact that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent months ago boasted that US policies and sanctions engineered a currency collapse in hopes that the January economic protests would topple the regime. This never materialized and now people in the Trump administration seem perplexed.

Rubio continued the blame-game while suggesting that if Tehran were to play ball on negotiating a deal for the Hormuz Strait, it could receive major economic benefits.

“Iran can be the richest country in the Middle East if they wanted to be. But instead, they take their money, and they use it and they give it to Hezbollah. They give it to Hamas. They give it to the Houthis. They give it to Shia militias. They give it to sponsored terrorism all over the world,” he said.

Iran “will pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing. They are already paying a heavy price,” he said. Rubio also responded to recent statements of the Iranians talking about exacting “an eye for an eye” in terms of military approach. The US top diplomat then asserted that President Trump’s approach was “a head for an eye”. He described that currently Iran’s military-industrial base is being “decimated” – suffering “billions” of dollars” in damage. This as…

The US bombs Iran for the 12th consecutive night, killing at least two people and wounding 11 others in an attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq. Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait have reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.

But what’s happening in the Red Sea right now does suggest that the Iranians have more cards to play. Their allies, the Houthis of Yemen, have initiated closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to all Saudi shipping. At least two vessels were attacked, with unconfirmed but widely circulating video showing one on fire and in distress:

BIG: First Saudi oil tanker reportedly hit by Houthi missile near Yemen, engulfed in flames. pic.twitter.com/R3nG7FSdW1

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 22, 2026

The attacks on the tankers pushed Brent up near $100 – its highest since May 26th…

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has newly announced he communicated to Saudi Crown Mohammed bin Salman Pakistan’s strong condemnation of Houthi aggression against Saudi vessels.

“Such actions are unacceptable, violate international law, threaten freedom of navigation, and undermine regional peace and security,” Sharif said in a statement on X. The PM emphasized that Pakistan stands “firmly and resolutely” with the Saudi leadership.

President Trump is threatening to take military action against the Houthis, and on Thursday morning took it a step further in saying he will hold Iran itself accountable for Houthi actions. “The US will hold Iran responsible,” he wrote, explaining that “the Houthis area a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran.” He warned that “major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis” themselves.

As for Rubio’s remarks, there were still clear signs that the administration hasn’t totally abandon efforts to revive talks. “The president always prefers to negotiate and reach a deal… and we are prepared to do that. We’ve tried to do that now for a year and a half,” Rubio had further stated from the ASEAN conference.

But then he again reverted to the argument: “If there’s any undermining of confidence, it’s confidence that the Iranian system as it currently is structured can reach an agreement.” Rubio added, “Ships are trying to go through the Straits, and they’re getting blown up. Commercial ships are going through the Straits, and they’re being blown up.”

As for the big picture of where things stand, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent highlights to nature of the current ‘all bad options’ of the table and quagmire the White House has gotten itself into.

“This is a bombing campaign in search of a strategy,” Kent wrote on X. We are choosing escalation when de-escalation remains an option, entrenching ourselves deeper into a broader war that we don’t have the capability or desire to sustain. There is not a military solution here that will lead to a win.”

There was so much smug talk up to last week about how Gulf pipelines would make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant and haha isn’t Iran foolish for hastening the SoH’s demise. This tanker’s oil came from Yanbu, ie KSA’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. https://t.co/DrOiAnGytT

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 22, 2026

Kent noted that “More bombing will not convince Iran to open the SOH or to give us the deal we want, it will only harden their position. Bombing civilian infrastructure will not make the people rise up against the regime, it will rally them around it.”

Amid ongoing exclamations of an AIpocalypse in the jobs market, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time crashed to just 187k last week (well below expectations)…

That is the lowest since 1969…

Additionally, continuous jobless claims tumbled back below 1.8mm (1.796mm) Americans…

Zero signs of labor market stress in any of this data as the ‘low hire, no fire’ economy pushes forward.

The European Central Bank  kept its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent and said it was “closely monitoring” the inflationary impact of fresh conflict in the Middle East.

The ECB reiterated it won’t pre-commit but act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.

“Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out,” the lender of last resort for the 21 countries that use the euro said.

“The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock.”

The ECB’s hawkish posture preserves its status at the vanguard of Group-of-Seven central banks after it last month became the first in that club to raise rates since the Iran war began.

Last month’s rate increase sparked discussions that the ECB might make a mistake similar to hikes in 2008 and 2011 which were quickly rolled back.

That debate persisted after peace talks between Washington and Tehran caused energy prices to drop sharply.

For all their sense of nervousness then however, the latest flare-up in fighting has emboldened policymakers in judging their recent hike to be fully justified.

“With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”

The euro extended its overnight weakness against the dollar…

…and Bund yields remained elevated…

For now, traders are largely unmoved on the future ECB rate trajectory, holding around 48bps of hikes by year-end. As Bloomberg Economics’ David Powell noted: 

“Even when oil prices were close to their lowest for the summer, President Christine Lagarde retained a hawkish tone. Buoyant commodity prices keep the Governing Council on track to raise borrowing costs again in September, when it’s armed with fresh forecasts from the staff economists, for a final time in this short tightening cycle.”

Deutsche Bank Chief European Economist Mark Wall says the ECB’s pause today shouldn’t be seen as hesitation. Rather, he says it’s a hold while the central bank updates forecasting before hiking in September. 

“The only question is: will one more hike to 2.50% be enough to curb the inflation risks? The answer will depend on growth as much as it will on inflation.”

The September meeting is widely seen as a natural point to deliver such a move if required, backed by new quarterly staff forecasts, inflation prints for the two prior months and more economic data including several business surveys.

Via American Greatness,

Elon Musk says he’ll beat Hollywood at its own game, pledging that his artificial intelligence venture will produce a full-length film of Homer’s “The Odyssey” by year’s end, one he insists will stay faithful to the ancient text in a way Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster adaptation has not.

Musk, believed to be the first trillionaire in modern history, unveiled the project Tuesday evening on X, posting AI-generated footage from Grok Imagine depicting a scene from the epic poem.

“Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of ‘The Odyssey’ that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer,” he wrote, offering no further details on production, casting or distribution.

Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer https://t.co/bVHzUmY9WN

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 22, 2026

In a follow-up post, Musk said he was “down” with a fan’s pitch to instead hand the project to actor and director Mel Gibson, backed by $100 million, to produce “an Odyssey adaptation with painstakingly historically accurate ships, armour, weapons and casting, with all dialogue taken straight from the original poem and delivered in Homeric Greek.”

The announcement is the latest salvo in Musk’s long-running feud with Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a Matt Damon-led adaptation Musk has criticized repeatedly over its casting choices.

In January, Musk wrote that “Chris Nolan lost his integrity,” responding to a post that called the film “an insult to the author” over the casting of Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy.

In May, after conservative commentator Matt Walsh suggested Nolan cast Nyong’o only to avoid being labeled “racist,” Musk replied with a single word: “True.”

Musk’s criticism hasn’t dented the film’s commercial performance, however. The R-rated, three-hour epic pulled in a $120 million opening weekend, according to Breitbart News, far exceeding pre-release industry projections of $80 million to $90 million.

US equity futures are lower as WTI breaches $90/bbl and Brent approaches $100/bbl (Houthi escalation in the Red Sea as two Saudi tankers were struck), pushing bond yields higher with longer-dated yields seen making new highs, globally. But, Alphabet’s underwhelming results – while dragging down Mag7 names – are boosting Semis / AI (CapEx spend) which may mean the market is returning to its barbell of longs in AI / Semis plus Energy versus shorts in Rate-sensitives.

*  *  *

Overnight saw oil prices extend their recent resurgence with WTI crude topping $90/bbl. The Iran-aligned Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea, potentially opening up another front in the war.

US forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets, Centcom said.

Commodities are led by the Energy complex; Base is higher, Precious is lower, and Ags mixed.

Pre-mkt, US yields are up 3-4bps across the curve with USD flat.

The surge in crude prices has dragged rate-hike odds higher (July very much back on the table)…

In Equities, Mag7 is weaker with all 7 names lower with GOOGL, TXN, TSLA, and IBM all lower following earnings. 

Semis / Memory are bid. Defensives and Energy are higher with Cyclicals mostly lower ex-Industrials which are being boosted as part of the AI theme.

Utils are bid with AI outweighing higher yields. 

European stocks fall as technology shares are dragged lower by STMicroelectronics, which slumped 17% after disappointing with its sales outlook.

Elsewhere, Nestle posted its biggest intraday drop since 2020.

Stoxx 600 falls 0.6% to 642.78 with 405 members down, 184 up, and 11 unchanged.

Asian shares rose as sentiment improved on expectations that regional tech hardware companies will benefit from Alphabet’s plans for more AI spending. 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.4%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.

A Bloomberg gauge of Asian chip shares advanced as much as 1.7%, extending its gains for a third session after tipping into a bear market last week.

Gains in artificial intelligence and semiconductor shares pushed the benchmarks in South Korea and Japan higher. 

Thursday’s moves across Asian markets reflect investors’ willingness to prioritize AI enthusiasm, earnings and capital spending plans in the short-term over geopolitical tensions that linger, primarily from the Middle East.

Top Overnight News

• The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 2.25% today, buying time to assess the fallout from renewed Middle East hostilities.

• A rally in Indonesian stocks put the nation’s benchmark index on track for a bull market, helped by a rotation into market laggards as well as a recent credit-rating announcement.

• The oil price has risen above $98 a barrel for the first time since early June after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. 

• The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.

• The U.S. military used a B-1 long-range bomber on Tuesday to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, U.S. officials said. It was the first time the U.S. conducted a B-1 mission since fighting with Iran resumed 12 days ago.

• Russia is set to receive a shipment of fuel from India, as Moscow is forced to import petrol after Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed parts of its major refineries.

• A rare surge in Latin American currencies is squeezing exporters by reducing the value of US dollar-denominated revenue. Coffee growers, banana producers and manufacturers face shrinking margins despite stronger investor confidence.

• Allies of Donald Trump have discussed whether an external review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse might justify removing Fed Governor Michael Barr over his role overseeing bank supervision at the time, people familiar said.

• Private equity takeovers of software groups are at a turning point as investors hunt for bargains among companies at risk of being disrupted by AI.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) started Thursday’s busy earnings day in the red, with higher energy prices and disappointing earnings weighing on indices. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night, while US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. Additionally, Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
• Sectors highlight the negative bias. Energy (+1.6%) tops the sector pile, with Real Estate (+0.8%) also printing decent gains. Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-2.9%) is the sector laggard, following Nestle earnings in which RIG missed estimates. Consumer Products & Services (-2.0%) and Travel & Leisure (-1.5%) rounds out the key underperformers.
• A lot of big European earnings this morning, with focus concentrated on STMicroelectronics figures. Its Q2 metrics beat estimates; however, its guidance and commentary have driven the biggest drop in shares since October 2025 (-13.8%). The Co. guided Q3 net revenue of “about” USD 3.7bln, which missed analysts’ expectations, and raised its revenue ambition for data centres due to continued strong demand. Citi analysts say that shares already reflect a recovery across its end markets and acceleration in revenue from data centres. Additionally, analysts say that shares may struggle in the near-term.
• US equity futures are softer across the board, with downside in tech-heavy NQ weighed on by STMicroelectronics earnings. Mag-7 earnings kicked off yesterday after the bell, with Alphabet and Tesla reporting Q2 metrics. For GOOGL (-3.9% pre-market), it sharply raised its AI capex forecast (which benefited Asia-Pac chip names overnight). For TSLA (-5.6% pre-market), Q2 figures disappointed, as adj. EPS missed estimates.
• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln), Operating income 40.77bln (exp. 40.55bln), Capex 44.92bln (exp. 44.15bln). Raises FY26 capex view to USD 195bln-205bln (prev. 180bln-190bln).
• Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln), Gross margin 16.8% (exp. 19.4%), Automotive revenue 20.52bln (exp. 18.68bln).
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• G10s are mixed after initial losses for the Greenback were reversed as energy prices continue to determine bias. Action which has benefitted energy exporters CAD and NOK, the sole currencies firmer against the Buck.
• USD erased earlier modest losses as energy lifted to session highs with the Brent Sept’26 contract approaching levels not seen since May. Geopolitics remains constructive for the Buck, and there are no signs of immediate de-escalation – focus on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels alongside flows through Bab al-Mandeb. Elsewhere, US earnings after the NY close were received poorly, with Google and Tesla slipping between 3-5% premarket, hitting indices and potentially increasing appetite for the Buck’s haven status. DXY rose from beneath the 21DMA @101, to mark a high at recent resistance near 101.20/1.
• EUR is lacklustre against the Buck ahead of the ECB meeting, where just 4bps of tightening is implied by markets. The Governing Council is likely to convey a hawkish message after the recent energy pressures. Should the bank stand pat on rates as analysts/markets expect, focus will be on guidance which could spur a move above two fully priced 25bp hikes by year-end. EUR/USD is well off highs made early in the domestic session, though found support towards 1.14. ING says this morning its near-term bias is tilted to the downside, noting if Gulf newsflow lacks signs of de-escalation, it looks for the pair to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.
• AUD is resilient against the Buck after strong jobs numbers overnight. The data saw headline Employment Change smash estimates at 76.3k (exp. 15k), and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% despite higher Participation. It appears NZD is used as a funder to express AUD hawkishness given USD swings on geopolitics, with AUD/NZD +0.4%, while AUD/USD is flat.
• TRY looks to the CBRT meeting, where analysts have shifted calls for easing in exchange for a hold amid the recent energy pressures. Turkish inflation eased to 32.1% Y/Y in June from 32.6% in May, as energy prices fell following the US-Iran MoU, which has since broken down. Despite the softer print, most analysts still forecast year-end inflation above the CBRT’s 26% target (incl. GS, MUFG at 30%), suggesting rates will remain higher for longer, particularly after the recent resurgence in Gulf tensions. Banks mostly expect the bank to stand pat on its key rate; HSBC said it could instead adjust its funding policy, lowering the average funding cost for commercial banks without formally changing the policy rate; JPMorgan expects the CBRT to resume one-week repo auctions, while Garanti BBVA, which recently shifted its call, expects a hold, but does not rule out easing. USD/TRY is lacklustre ahead of the decision.

FIXED INCOME

• A bearish start for fixed income as energy climbed overnight and into the European morning after the 12th consecutive evening of action by the US in the Middle East. Action that has taken Brent above USD 98/bbl and weighed on global yields.
• Overnight, JGBs reacted to the above and also a Reuters source report from Wednesday that the BoJ is alert to inflationary risks that could result in tightening taking place faster than the market is pricing. JGBs down to a 127.04 base, lower by just over 20 ticks.
• USTs hold at a 108-09 low, with downside of just a few ticks on the day. Today’s docket features weekly claims (initial claims coincide with the BLS survey window), before a 10yr TIPS auction and the latest Chicago Fed.
• Bunds under pressure as above, down to a 124.17 base at worst but currently holding around 15 ticks clear of that but still lower by over 20 ticks on the day. Action that has pushed the 10yr yield to a 3.2% peak, just above May’s best to a new YTD high, a dynamic that is also reflected at the short-end, where the 2yr has notched a new YTD peak of 2.88%.
• Energy has driven much of this, but the short-end is also likely being spurred further by the associated implications for the ECB. While a hold is the base case today, the accompanying guidance may well be more hawkish and explicit than the usual no-signal, data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach we have become accustomed to. Note, given the moves in recent days, more hawkish guidance may only spark a modest hawkish reaction, while a reiteration of the above non-committal language could see a relatively more pronounced dovish move. However, again, any such reaction would likely be limited in nature as geopolitics and, by extension, energy dictate the narrative.
• Gilts opened lower and underperformed, in the typical action seen when energy is bid. Opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.07 base, just above the 86.03 low from April but some way clear of May’s 84.98 contract trough. No real reaction to commentary from UK Chancellor Healey this morning, who stuck with familiar language. The day ahead for UK rates may take direction from the ECB as outlined above, as any hawkish nod from Europe would be in contrast to the on hold for the foreseeable narrative which remains around the BoE, despite the dissenters and clearly contrasting views on Threadneedle Street.

COMMODITIES

• Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to dominate price action, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night, whilst US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. He added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet. Hostilities across the region have also expanded, as Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. On that note, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said, “If our ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan, and we will retaliate”. As a reminder, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. The treaty states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. If the Houthis launch severe ballistic missile strikes on Saudi territory or fully disrupt its vital energy exports, Riyadh could formally trigger this pact. This could further complicate the picture as Pakistan is the main mediator in US-Iran talks. Further on this front, Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS; the two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea; and reaffirmed Pakistan’s “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, reports noted the sound of an explosion was heard in Qatar and Jordan, whilst an explosion was also heard in Iran around Qeshm city near Konarak. Elsewhere in geopolitics, US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister; the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russia, according to diplomats; additionally, the bloc is to freeze the oil price cap for a 12-month period.
• WTI and Brent futures at session highs. WTI Sep’26 trades beyond the USD 90/bbl mark, currently at the top end of its USD 87.32-90.35/bbl range. Brent Sep’26 resides near USD 98.50/bbl in a USD 94.89-98.75/bbl range. Dutch TTF prices have waned after hitting resistance near EUR 64/MWh before dipping sub-62.50/MWh. This morning, sources reported that buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase.
• Precious metals are softer as rising oil prices once again hit by the rising oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,087-4,141/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,076-4,166/oz range. Spot silver briefly dipped under yesterday’s 58.73/oz low to currently trade towards the bottom end of a USD 58.66-60.07/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly lower amid the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. 3M LME copper trades towards the lower end of a USD 13,709.00-13,873.70/t range.
• Buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase, according to sources.
• Kazakhstan’s daily oil production fell after loading operations were suspended at the CPC export terminal on the Black Sea, sources say, output down 21% on Wednesday vs July average

TRADE/TARIFFS

• China’s MOFCOM said China and the US are working towards the tariff cut plan; to maintain close communication.
• UAE Foreign Trade Minister said imports of high-end US AI chips expected soon, Bloomberg reported.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• The UK PM announced that pubs, clubs and live music venues are set to receive a 20% cut to their business rates bills, saving the typical pub an estimated GBP 1,100/yr.
• UK Chancellor Healey said he is as concerned about the cost of business as the cost of living.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said the government will face a shutdown in September.
• Some Trump admin officials and allies have privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed Governor Barr, according to Bloomberg.
• US is investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access, with the BIS probing if the Co. used US chips for model training, according to The Information.
• Trump admin is reportedly divided about restricting Chinese AI models, with the White House mulling preventing Chinese labs from distilling US models, and Commerce Department favours incentivising US companies to develop open models to counter China

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.
• US CENTCOM said the US completed the 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, in which the US struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and defence assets.
• US military has started using B-1 long-range bombers in its strikes against Iran, according to i24’s Stein citing a source that stated the first strike using the bomber was conducted on Tuesday.
• A senior US official said negotiations continue but the decisive moment for expanding hostilities is rapidly approaching, N12 reported.
• There were several explosions heard in Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan while sirens were sounded in Bahrain. In Iran, explosions were heard in Bushehr, Bandar Mahshahr, Sirik, Konarak City and Ramshir. Additionally, Iranian media reported that a power station was hit by a missile near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country, according to Sky News Arabia.
• IRGC said one of three offending ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz caught fire and the other two quickly turned back, while it also targeted US bases in Jordan, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, the IRGC said it targeted US military in Kuwait’s Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al-Salem Airbase.
• Yemen’s Houthis announced they targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. In other reports, at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
• Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi crude are heading to Bab al-Mandeb, according to reports citing data.
• Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS. The two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and reaffirmed Pakistan’s “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, on US-Iran talks, said they can not confirm 10-15 days or anything because these are confidential communications but they have not lost hope even during the darkest days of this escalation cycle.
• Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said that if Pakistani ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan and will retaliate.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 70NM of Al-Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, with a tanker reported to have been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board.
• Oman’s Foreign Ministry said it is working with Saudi Arabia and Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy to resume the political process aimed at achieving regional security and stability.
• The US is on course to get no new military spending before the election and they are warning it could be a huge problem for them amidst the war with Iran, according to Semafor.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister and the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine.
• Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed that Russia is prepared to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
• EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russian, according to diplomats. Additionally, to freeze the oil price cap for a 12 month period.

OTHER

• China is conducting live fire, military drills in some areas of the Taiwan Strait on Thursday and Friday.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to pare back Tuesday’s gains but remains firmly above the USD 65k mark.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as semiconductor strength helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and the widening geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
• ASX 200 was lifted amid outperformance in the commodity-related and materials sectors, while sentiment was also helped by strong jobs data.
• Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is well off today’s best levels amid higher oil prices and after hitting resistance around the 67,000 level.
• KOSPI remained driven by semiconductor advances with both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the green, while chaebols dominated the list of biggest gainers and participants also digested stronger-than-expected South Korean GDP data.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with Hong Kong led higher by strength in mining names, while the mainland was lacklustre as trade-related frictions lingered, with the US investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access and whether the Co. used US chips for model training.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Inflation has remained top of the agenda for markets this morning, with Brent crude moving up to almost $96/bbl overnight as the Middle East escalation continues. Indeed, the strikes between the US and Iran show no sign of easing, and the Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, raising fears that the conflict is widening. So that’s pushed oil prices up to a 7-week high, and has also fuelled speculation about more rate hikes. For instance, futures are currently pricing in a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike as soon as next week, and bond yields jumped as well, with the US 30yr real yield (+0.4bps) closing at a post-2008 high of 2.93% yesterday. So it was a tough backdrop, and equities struggled to gain traction too, with the S&P 500 down -0.14% yesterday, whilst futures are down another -0.13% this morning following earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.

We’ll start with the geopolitics, as the US-Iran conflict has shown no sign of easing, and there’s still no indication of any emerging peace deal either. In fact, President Trump posted yesterday that if Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, then the US would “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT”. And shortly after, Trump said in person that Iran would pay a big price after US troops were killed, whilst Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted that aggression against Iran “will compel a powerful and decisive response”, and that those “who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets”. Overnight, US Central Command confirmed that they’d completed another round of strikes against Iran, whilst oil markets have come under fresh pressure given the news about the Houthis targeting two oil tankers in the Red Sea. So that’s raised fresh supply fears given Saudi Arabia has redirected oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

That backdrop drove a fresh jump in commodity prices, with oil prices continuing to move higher. So Brent crude jumped +3.36% to $94.07/bbl by yesterday’s close, and is up a further +1.96% this morning to $95.94/bbl. Moreover, investors also priced in a longer period of high oil prices, and the 6-month Brent future (+0.59%) hit a one-month high of $81.74/bbl yesterday as well. And elsewhere, the energy shock was extending beyond oil prices, with European natural gas futures (+4.82%) exceeding their recent high back in March yesterday, closing at levels last seen in early 2023, at €62.54/MWh.

The latest rise in energy prices led to fresh concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock, with investors pricing in more inflation as a result. In fact, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+4.7bps) was up for an 8th consecutive day to 2.64%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (+1.2bps) also rose to 2.05%. Unsurprisingly, that also saw investors price in a more hawkish path for central banks. So Fed futures are now pricing in a 36% chance of a rate hike next week, having now unwound most of the moves after the downside CPI surprise last week. And over in Europe, investors are now pricing in 48bps of further hikes by year-end, on top of the 25bps we had last month. Indeed, that’s the most hawkish path priced for the ECB in the last couple of months.

With markets expecting more inflation and more rate hikes, that meant sovereign bonds took a fresh hit on both sides of the Atlantic as well. So US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2yr yield (+3.5bps) up to 4.30%, its highest since February 2025, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.7bps) hit its highest since May, at 4.66%. In addition, there were some fresh milestones for real yields, with the 2yr real yield (+3.0bps) up to its highest since September 2024, at 2.34%, whilst the 10yr real yield (+1.6bps) hit its highest since October 2023, at 2.36%. Over in Europe there were more marginal increases, but yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.8bps) all moved higher as well.

As all that was happening, equities have put in a much more mixed performance over the last 24 hours. In the US the tone has been more negative, with the S&P 500 down -0.14%. But in other regions things have been much more positive, and overnight we’ve seen the KOSPI (+3.98%), the Hang Seng (+1.34%) and the Nikkei (+0.52%) all advance. The main exception has been in mainland China, where the CSI 300 (-0.20%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) are both lower. But the European indices put in a solid performance as well yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.58%.

US equity futures have continued to lose ground overnight following Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings after the US close. Alphabet delivered a solid earnings and revenue beat, reporting 82% yoy growth in cloud revenue in Q2 ($24.8bn vs $22.5bn est.). But its shares fell by over -3% in after-hours trading as the company increased its 2026 capex plan to a range of $195-205bn (vs. $186bn est.). And Tesla fell by over -4% after-hours after the company reported its first negative quarter of free cash flows in over two years, as solid auto sales were outweighed by a 47% yoy surge in operating costs. So futures on the S&P 500 are down another -0.13% this morning.

In general however, the equity picture has been pretty resilient over the last 24 hours, despite the latest uptick in oil prices, with fresh gains in Asia overnight. That might seem striking, but we’ve written before (link here) how oil prices beneath $100/bbl haven’t been enough to cause a meaningful dent in risk assets. Indeed, if you look earlier in the year, it wasn’t until they got to around $110/bbl that you saw meaningful vulnerabilities for equities and credit. Likewise, back in the 2022 energy shock, it was a similar real-terms threshold for Brent (above $110/bbl in today’s prices) that started to cause meaningful stress, which we’re still some way from right now. So for now at least, the current pattern is still consistent with what we saw earlier in the year.

Elsewhere in Asia, the yen did briefly strengthen yesterday after a Bloomberg report said that BoJ officials were open to faster rate hikes than the consensus expected. According to the report, it said officials were aware of expectations for hikes roughly every six months, but they were open to earlier moves instead. Moreover, the article said there were signs of inflation becoming more entrenched, whilst the yen’s decline meant there were further inflationary pressures. Those gains were then pared back, and this morning the yen is still trading at 163.06 per US dollar. However, front-end yields have continued to climb, with Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.5bps) at a post-1995 high of 1.48% this morning.

Otherwise overnight, the Australian dollar has strengthened +0.28% against the US dollar after the latest employment data for June led to mounting expectations of another RBA rate hike this year. The data showed employment up by +76.3k in June (vs. +15.0k expected), which was the biggest monthly jump in 14 months.

Looking forward, today’s main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision at 13:15 London time. It’s widely expected they’ll keep rates on hold, after hiking at the last meeting in June. But given the latest surge in oil and gas prices, the focus will be on what they signal ahead, with markets pricing almost two further hikes by year-end. Our European economists think the ECB will maintain neutral communications in the press conference. So no explicit forward guidance, with an emphasis on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach that avoids pre-committing to a specific path. However, they do think the ECB will convey a hawkish stance on inflation, consistent with another 25bp hike in September being highly probable. For more info, see their full ECB preview here.

Otherwise in Europe, UK gilts saw a very marginal outperformance after the June CPI data surprised on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.6% in June (vs. +2.7% expected). However, some of the details weren’t quite as dovish in their implications, with core CPI actually remaining at +2.6% (vs. +2.5% expected). So 10yr gilt yields were still up up +0.5bps on the day, only slightly beneath the +0.7bps increase for 10yr bunds.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in July. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Intel.

Wildberries, which is widely referenced as ‘Russia’s Amazon’, has seen four of its top ten distribution hubs attacked by Ukrainian long-range drones in only a matter of days, potentially putting their business operations in doubt.

Stunning footage is widely circulating Wednesday of some of the latest attacks, which came overnight. A large fire broke out in the outskirts of Krasnodar in southern Russia at a sprawling Wildberries warehouse. 

Regional media has cited several separate fires in the area, before which witnesses reported hearing some 20 to 30 explosions across the city and its outskirts.

Another key logistics hub for Wildberries, which is far and away the country’s biggest online retailer, was also hit in the Stavropol region overnight, resulting in the urgent evacuation of employees.

Four days prior, the company’s warehouses in central Russia were struck, which killed eight people. In the face of the Krelmin calling the attacks acts of terrorism and war crimes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that the hubs were “involved in providing the Russian army with drone components, navigation equipment and other gear.”

Massive fire rages in Krasnodar, Russia overnight:

A massive fire rages in Krasnodar, Russia tonight after Ukrainian drones blew up a distribution center belonging to the Wildberries company. Notably, this is the third warehouse belonging to the online retailer which has been destroyed in the span of a week. https://t.co/vcH8y2Mmyb pic.twitter.com/eVhRH57ul2

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) July 22, 2026

The regional anti-Kremlin publication Meduza has tallied the size of the huge hubs hit and damaged in the following:

The Ukrainian military’s strike hit two Wildberries warehouses: one in Elektrostal, outside Moscow — a 250,000-square-meter (2.7-million-square-foot) facility and one of the company’s largest logistics centers — and another in Kotovsk, in the Tambov region, a 108,000-square-meter (1.2-million-square-foot) warehouse that opened only last year.

Experts estimate the Elektrostal and Kotovsk warehouses accounted for 6.5% to 9% of Wildberries’ total warehouse space. Losing them won’t paralyze the marketplace’s operations, though it could strain its logistics network. Customers are unlikely to see significantly longer delivery times, since Wildberries operates numerous sorting centers that let it reroute shipments quickly.

And additionally of note:

Wildberries isn’t formally required to compensate sellers for the damage. On July 7 — 11 days before the attack — the company changed its contract terms with sellers, exempting itself from liability for “force majeure circumstances,” a category that now includes drone attacks.

The Kremlin will no doubt take the ongoing threat and targeting of Wildberries’ hubs very seriously. Reuters has reviewed that “Together with smaller rivals, Wildberries and Ozon sell goods and services worth the equivalent of 8.5% of Russia’s gross domestic product. They provide jobs for 4 million people, or more than 5% of the country’s workforce.”

Ukrainian attack drones struck a second distribution center/warehouse for the Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries in Nevinnomyssk this morning, setting it ablaze.

Half of Wildberries largest 10 distribution centers have been destroyed in the last week. pic.twitter.com/7XPqEutsVu

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 22, 2026

“The firms are central to the Kremlin’s plans to reinvigorate growth in ​a stagnating, war-focused economy,” Reuters continues. “President Vladimir Putin’s top man on the economy, Maxim Oreshkin, has been personally tasked with overseeing the sector.”

Russia has in turn also been striking some major manufacturing centers inside Ukraine, claiming that these sites are have dual civilian-military purposes, such as for drone or aircraft component production.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The British government is in court to stop the public seeing the full picture of migrant crime rates.

After the Information Commissioner ordered the Ministry of Justice to release nationality-linked conviction data from 2018 to 2024, officials have launched an appeal, claiming it risks identifying offenders and costs too much.

Campaigners say the real fear is what the numbers will show about open-border policies that have left British streets, transport and communities less safe.

‘Apparently in Britain we are not allowed to see it, and that’s appalling.’

Crime and Justice Journalist David Shipley says the Government is blocking data on crime by type of offence and nationality because it doesn’t want Britons to know the harms of mass migration. pic.twitter.com/eqkZIXsMYF

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 21, 2026

The Centre for Migration Control submitted the Freedom of Information request that triggered the ruling. The MoJ rejected both the identification and cost arguments.

Director of Research Robert Bates called the legal fight “astonishing” and said it raises serious questions about what the government is hiding.

Research Director at the Centre for Migration Control, Rob Bates, accuses the Government of ‘launching an attack on transparency and accountability’, as they enter a legal battle to block the publication of data on migrant convictions by nationality. pic.twitter.com/dVoK4sdQIn

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 21, 2026

The publication of migrant crime data matters. A lot.

“If certain nationalities commit crime at a greater rate than others, knowing this would allow us to adjust our visa policy accordingly and, when appropriate, introduce blanket bans on immigration from certain countries.” https://t.co/E7bqIApDLw

— Centre for Migration Control (@migrationCtrl) July 22, 2026

Reform UK’s Robert Jenrick put it bluntly: “The cover-up continues. Successive Tory and Labour justice secretaries have refused to publish this basic information. A Reform government led by Nigel Farage would immediately blow the lid on what’s really happening and begin deporting these dangerous criminals.”

‘The public deserve to know.’

Deputy Online Editor at The Critic, Tom Jones relays some of the figures on migrant crime that the Government are entering a legal battle to try and conceal. pic.twitter.com/xXtiAel7Qz

— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 21, 2026

A Ministry of Justice spokesman insisted there is no cover-up but declined further comment while proceedings continue.

Partial data already released shows foreign nationals accounted for 14.1 per cent of sex offence convictions in 2025. That figure excludes naturalised British citizens and lacks breakdowns for rape, grooming or child sexual abuse.

Earlier analysis comparing prison rolls to census figures found foreigners overall 27 per cent more likely to be imprisoned than British citizens.

Albanians recorded an imprisonment rate of 232.33 per 10,000 people against 14 for British citizens. Kosovars, Vietnamese, Algerians, Jamaicans, Eritreans, Iraqis and Somalis all sat well above the British baseline. Some groups, including Germans, Italians and Indians, sat below it.

Those patterns match the detailed pictures already forced into the open through earlier FOI work.

Foreign nationals made up 79 per cent of theft arrests on British trains in 2025, 40 per cent of drug offence arrests, 37 per cent of sexual offence arrests and 36 per cent of violent crime arrests.

They accounted for nearly 3,700 of the 9,771 total arrests recorded by British Transport Police that year.

Across England and Wales, foreign nationals were arrested 172,889 times in the year ending March 2025 – one every 183 seconds – including 51,212 for violence and 11,264 for sexual offences.

Separate figures showed foreign nationals 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than British citizens, with an arrest rate of nearly 165 per 100,000 against 48 per 100,000 for Britons.

They formed 26.1 per cent of sexual offence arrests despite comprising around 9 per cent of the population.

In the City of London the foreign share of sex crime arrests reached 66.9 per cent; in Derbyshire it hit 44.8 per cent. Nationalities with the highest rates included Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalis.

The two-tier reality of enforcement has also become impossible to ignore. An Ethiopian small-boat arrival housed in an Epping asylum hotel sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman who tried to help him.

He received a 12-month sentence. Local residents who protested the hotel and the offender later received longer jail terms.

One father of two was given two years and nine months for violent disorder after adopting what a judge called a “fighting or boxing stance.”

Police Scotland has gone further, refusing FOI requests for aggregated data on call-outs, crimes and arrests at five asylum hotels.

Officers cited fears that releasing the figures would heighten community tensions and put people at risk of physical harm. The force acknowledged the hotels house asylum seekers and refugees yet argued that numbers could change over time and that incidents might be linked to protests rather than residents.

Scottish Conservative shadow justice secretary Liam Kerr called the refusal another example of public bodies following an SNP culture of secrecy.

The same pattern repeats across Europe. In Spain a CEU-CEFAS study found foreigners commit five times more rapes and four times more murders per capita than Spanish citizens.

They make up 31 per cent of the prison population. In Catalonia 91 per cent of convicted rapists are migrants, who form only 17 per cent of the population.

Penetrative rape cases rose 143 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Attempted murders nearly doubled over a similar period. Illegal property occupations saw foreigners accounting for 51.8 per cent of arrests.

Official Spanish figures show rape crimes tripled from 1,878 cases in 2019 to 5,206 in 2024 – an average of 14 rapes per day. Catalonia, Madrid and Andalusia led the surge. Sixty-four per cent of sexual assault and rape inmates are foreign nationals.

Eurostat data confirmed the continental scale: rape reports in Spain surged 322 per cent over the last decade, against an EU average rise of 150 per cent.

EU-wide sexual violence cases exceeded 250,000 in 2024, with nearly 100,000 rapes. Foreigners in Spain remain over-represented in serious crime even as the native population ages.

In France left-wing MPs, including Greens, tabled an amendment demanding public media reduce coverage of crime stories. They cited the murders of 13-year-old Lola and of Thomas in Crépol as examples of “political exploitation” by the right.

Marine Le Pen called the move a hallmark of totalitarian ideology that threatens the public’s right to know. French statistics already show foreigners responsible for 69 per cent of violence and sexual crimes on public transport, half of all crimes in Paris and 55 per cent in Marseille.

Germany’s 2025 police crime statistics show foreigners, 15 per cent of the population, responsible for 41 per cent of violent crimes and 38 per cent of murders.

They account for 39.1 per cent of serious sexual offences. Rape has risen 72 per cent since 2018. Afghans are 14 times more likely than Germans to commit sexual offences; Syrians are 11 times more likely to commit violence.

Knife crime runs at 29,000 incidents a year. In North Rhine-Westphalia foreigners commit 48 per cent of robberies.

Reported rapes in Germany reached nearly 14,000 in 2025, a 9 per cent rise on the previous year and a 72 per cent jump since 2018. Non-German nationals formed around 41 per cent of suspects for crimes against sexual self-determination.

In some states the over-representation reaches three to four times their population share. Hesse’s Interior Minister Roman Poseck noted that perpetrators with a migration background are overrepresented and that some arrive with “a completely wrong understanding of roles” regarding women’s rights.

Sweden Democrats MEP Charlie Weimers forced the European Parliament to confront the pattern after a Swedish police officer was beaten to death at a Copenhagen fan zone and a Gambian migrant in Milan stabbed a man 20 times “for fun.”

Weimers described the attacks as part of a broader wave undermining ordinary Europeans’ safety. Swedish Social Democrats voted against even holding the debate.

The refusal to publish the data sits against a starker warning delivered inside the same parliament.

At a conference titled “Civil War: Europe at Risk?”, Professor David Betz of King’s College London told MEPs that “Europe is on track for civil war.”

Marion Maréchal warned that cultural homogeneity – the main basis of trust between citizens – is eroding, producing societies of violence and mistrust.

A report mapped up to a thousand no-go zones across the continent. Betz described the trajectory as Balkanisation that could extinguish coherent national identities and lead to large-scale conflict resembling the Troubles or the Years of Lead, only on a continental scale.

British officials still claim the full nationality breakdown is too expensive or too risky to release. The Information Commissioner already rejected those arguments.

Campaigners note that partial data and FOI-driven releases have already painted a consistent picture: certain nationalities drive disproportionate shares of theft, violence and sexual crime, while native protesters face longer sentences than the offenders who provoked them.

Across Spain, France and Germany the same disparities appear, often followed by official efforts to limit public discussion rather than confront the numbers.

The legal battle is therefore not about administrative cost. It is about whether British voters are allowed to see the consequences of the migration policies successive governments have pursued.

Reform UK has pledged to publish the data and begin deportations. Until then, the Ministry of Justice will keep fighting in the courts to keep the full ledger closed.

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